SCENARIOS-Iraq steps into precarious but sovereign unknown

29 Jun 2009 22:09:33 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Michael Christie

BAGHDAD, June 30 (Reuters) - Iraq takes a major step toward reasserting its sovereignty on Tuesday when U.S. combat troops hand urban areas over to its relatively untested police and soldiers.

Will the end of one aspect of the "surge" strategy -- the ramped-up deployment of U.S. forces in militant strongholds that helped drive al Qaeda and other fighters underground -- lead to a collapse in security?

WILL VIOLENCE SOAR?

It is highly likely that insurgents will increase their attacks following the departure of U.S. combat troops from city centres, both U.S. and Iraqi officials say.

Some militant groups may want to create the impression that they deserve the credit for driving out the occupation forces.

The fact that the partial withdrawal has been dictated by a bilateral security pact agreed last year between the United States and Iraq is immaterial to them.

Some of the insurgents may also think Iraq and its population will be more vulnerable once the Americans pull back to their bases, and that they have a better chance of reigniting widespread sectarian bloodshed through massive bombings.

There have been indications, however, that insurgent and militant groups have lost the capacity to keep up the momentum.

While the past month saw two of the deadliest bombings in more than a year, the overall number of incidents has plunged, and major attacks are followed by weeks of relative calm.

WHAT IS AT STAKE POLITICALLY?

If Iraqi security forces fail to protect the Iraqi people from escalating attacks, Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is likely to suffer politically.

He is staking his hopes for a second term after a parliamentary poll next January on his ability to claim credit for a sharp fall in violence over the past 18 months.

Maliki has called the withdrawal a great victory as Iraq tries to shake off stigma of occupation, and he has declared June 30, "National Sovereignty Day", a public holiday.

Analysts say he has essentially backed himself into a corner by exalting the occasion -- if violence soars it will be politically unpalatable to call on the U.S. military for help.

The prime minister's stance may also dictate commanders' behaviour on the ground. They may be loathe to call on U.S. troops or air cover, no matter how much it is needed, out of fear of being punished by their superiors for apparent weakness.

CAN THE IRAQI SECURITY FORCES PROTECT THE PEOPLE?

The army and national police had to be rebuilt from scratch after U.S. administrators disbanded Saddam Hussein's security apparatus following the 2003 invasion. That left thousands of fighters unemployed and angry, and many joined the insurgency.

Since then, the U.S. military and Iraqi government have spent billions of dollars re-creating, training and equipping a 600,000 strong domestic security force.

Iraqi soldiers at checkpoints now seem a mirror image of the Americans who trained them. U.S. commanders say the police still need more work, but are also better than two years ago.

Where the Iraqi forces fall down is in their vulnerability to threats to their families or bribery.

Corruption has become widespread in Iraq, a major oil producer, and that has led to considerable apprehension among the public over the integrity of the local security forces.

Iraq was a very effective police state under Saddam. Crime and violence, except for that carried out by the state, were ruthlessly stamped out.

WILL THE GOVERNMENT TURN ON SUNNIS AND KURDS?

Once dominant Sunnis and minority ethnic Kurds in the north fear that the U.S. pullback will leave them exposed to the wrath of the Shi'ite-led government in Baghdad.

Maliki's administration has already arrested some leaders of the Sunni-based Sahwa, or Awakening, movement -- U.S.-backed neighbourhood guards who once fought alongside al Qaeda.

The guards and some other Sunni groups mistrust Maliki. They believe he is not inclined to give a share of power to Sunnis who often bloodily repressed the Shi'ite majority under Saddam.

Kurds in their semi-autonomous enclave are in a dispute with Baghdad over oil and land, and they fear Maliki's Arab-led government may rein in the independence they have enjoyed, under Western protection, since the first Gulf War.

Once U.S. forces pull back, the risks of a confrontation between Kurdish Peshmerga fighters and the Iraqi army may rise, and Sunni resentment at their political exclusion or a perceived sense of persecution may again fuel the insurgency. For main story, click on [LS340559] (Editing by Daniel Wallis)


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U.S. combat troops to withdraw from Iraq cities
29 Jun 2009 22:09:10 GMT
Source: Reuters
* U.S. troops have one more day to pull out of cities

* Iraq plans big parade to mark "sovereignty day"

By Tim Cocks

BAGHDAD, June 30 (Reuters) - U.S. combat troops prepared to leave the last of Iraq's cities on Tuesday, a move hailed by authorities as restoring sovereignty and applauded by Iraqis even as they voice fears it may leave them more vulnerable.

By midnight on Tuesday, all U.S. combat units must have withdawn from Iraq's urban centres and redeployed to bases outside, according to a bilateral security pact that also requires all U.S. troops to leave Iraq by the end of 2011.

The last U.S. combat troops left central Baghdad on Monday, withdrawing to two large bases near the capital's airport, and withdrawals from other cities were underway. Some troops tasked with training and advising Iraqi forces will stay behind.

Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said the United States had closed or returned to local control 120 bases and facilities in Iraq, and they were scheduled to turn over or shutter another 30 by the end of Tuesday. Officials gave no further details.

The Iraqi government is planning banner celebrations for June 30, which Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has declared "National Sovereignty Day", a public holiday.

Festivities will include a military parade in Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone government and diplomatic compound, viewed by Iraqis as the ultimate symbol of the foreign military presence until Iraqi forces took control of it in January.

Iraqi forces began their own celebrations on Monday, decking Humvees and other vehicles with flowers and Iraqi flags. Signs were draped on Baghdad's ubiquitous concrete blast walls reading "Iraq: my nation, my glory, my honour."

"VICTORY"

Maliki has called Tuesday's withdrawal a "victory" and compared it to rebellions by Iraqi tribes against the former British empire in 1920. Many Iraqis see it as restoring their pride six years after the U.S.-led invasion to oust Saddam Hussein turned into a multi-year foreign occupation.

"Definitely, our forces can take control of things now," said Dawood Dawood, 38, who owns a bathroom appliance shop in downtown Baghdad. "The U.S. withdrawal is a positive step."

Some fear a resurgence of violence, without the presence of U.S. forces to police Iraq's cities, although their bases outside remain close enough that they can redeploy if needed.

Militants appear to have stepped up attacks in the past week, including two of the biggest bombings in more than a year that killed 150 people between them, raising doubts about whether Iraqi forces are ready to handle security.

On Monday, a car bomb killed 10 people in Mosul, north Iraq.

"These are some extremist elements who are trying to bring attention to a movement that's fractured," General Ray Odierno, commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, told CNN on Sunday.

"We are still at low levels of overall violence."

With the tit-for-tat violence that brought Iraq to the brink of all-out sectarian civil war in 2006-2007 receding, many Iraqis agree with that assessment.

"These explosions are mere bubbles in the air; they shall come to an end one day," said Ahmed Hameed, 38, unemployed.

In any case, analysts say Iraq has to take the plunge eventually, with President Barack Obama planning to end the U.S. combat mission by Aug 31 next year.

"If the U.S. wants to execute its exit strategy successfully they'll have stop holding Maliki's hand at some point," said Tim Ripley, of Jane's Defence Weekly. "This is as good as any."

But the political situation remains unsettled. Tensions have grown between officials in Baghdad and minority Kurds in Iraq's north, and all eyes in coming months will be on national polls in January that will test Maliki and Iraq's untested democracy.

The troop deadline coincides with the government's first major energy tender since 2003. Scores of foreign oil executives have flown into Baghdad for a chance to bid for major fields in Iraq, which has the world's third largest oil reserves. (For SCENARIOS factbox, please click on [LT004410] (Additional reporting by Muhanad Mohammed, Missy Ryan, Daniel Wallis and Ahmed Rasheed; Writing by Tim Cocks; editing by Ralph Boulton)