FAQ-What might happen next in Iran

A supporter of Iranian opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi takes part in a protest in front of Iran's Embassy in Kuwait City June 21, 2009. REUTERS/Stephanie McGehee (KUWAIT POLITICS CONFLICT)
REUTERS/Stephanie Mcgehee

Q+A-What might happen next in Iran

21 Jun 2009 13:25:09 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Samia Nakhoul

LONDON, June 21 (Reuters) - Iran's presidential election, in which hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad overwhelmingly beat moderate rival, Mirhossein Mousavi, has set off the broadest internal unrest since the 1979 Islamic revolution.

Iranian protesters have flooded the streets of Tehran and other cities over the past week in defiance of a stern warning by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iranian authorities on Sunday blamed "terrorists" and rioters for clashes and Ahmadinejad told the United States and Britain on Sunday to stop interfering in the Islamic Republic's internal affairs. Iran state television said 10 people were killed and 100 others injured in protests held in Tehran on Saturday. A separate report put the number of deaths at 13.

Here are some questions and answers on what could happen next in the Islamic Republic, the world's fifth biggest oil exporter, whose nuclear programme has alarmed the West.

ARE IRANIANS LIKELY TO OBEY KHAMENEI'S ORDERS TO STOP THE DEMONSTRATIONS?

Based on what happened on Saturday night, just a day after Khamenei's speech, street protests will continue unless Iran imposes a state of emergency or martial law. Now that students and women are involved, it seems a bit unlikely that the establishment can end demonstrations by force.

Anoush Ehteshami of Durham University told Reuters:

"I don't think the protest will end. The demonstrations are going to evolve into different things. Much will depend on whether Mr Mousavi is going to lead from the front. If he is, he will make sure that the demonstrations are peaceful, orderly and with one political objective which is the annulment of the election result. But if he is not at the helm of the demonstrations, the danger is that the protest movement will fragment, elements of it will turn to violence which is not something you want in this crisis."

If Mousavi is arrested, he said, that would raise the scale of the crisis to a whole new level and other national figures would be called on to intervene such as Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, former presidents Mohammad Khatami and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who also heads the powerful assembly of experts, a clerical body that supervises, appoints and can sack the supreme leader.

Baqer Moin, a London-based Iran commentator, said

the protests will continue but on a smaller scale because of the heavy presence of security and militias and the arrest of key personalities, activists and strategists from the opposition.

"I don't think there is a security solution for this issue. There has to be a compromise by the authorities to satisfy at least the most loyal people to the Islamic Republic -- that there hasn't been any malpractices because we even have some clergymen among the demonstrators."

"In terms of law enforcement the government has sufficient security power at its disposal to prevent street demonstrations, however, it won't be able to stop civil disobedience,"

he said.

HAS THE REGIME LOST LEGITIMACY AND IF SO CAN IT REGAIN IT?

The street protests, in open defiance to Khamenei, have undermined the establishment's legitimacy. Before the election, protesters aimed to encourage Iranians to unseat Ahmadinejad but now, the whole system and the leader himself are implicated. That is unprecedented.

The only possible way for the leader to get out of the crisis and regain legitimacy is to follow the path of late leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and drink the "poison chalice(A cup or goblet.
A cup for the consecrated wine of the Eucharist)" and order a fresh vote.

In that case, he may lose the support of some of his loyalists but he can calm the situation and also repair Iran's image around the globe.

"The legitimacy of the regime is now an open question. So long as the masses of the people, young and old, remain discontented about the electoral results, the legitimacy of the regime will remain under question," Ehteshami said.

By accepting the result too soon and by supporting Ahmadinejad so openly the Supreme Leader has put himself in a very precarious situation, Moin said. "From now on any criticism of Ahmadinejad, his government and practices will be reflected on Khamenei. He sided openly with one faction within the Islamic Republic instead of remaining above all sides as was the practice in the past".

KHAMENEI'S MESSAGE WAS BACKDOWN OR CRACKDOWN, BUT CAN THEY AFFORD THE REPERCUSSIONS OF A CRACKDOWN?

If a crackdown is the only way to preserve the system, that is what will be done. In 1999 university unrest, the crackdown was efficient. If the choice is between accepting the demands of the protesters or repressing them, the system is likely to opt for the harsher method.

"They are all in unchartered waters,"

Ehteshami said. "Neither side can predict how this crisis will evolve. While a crackdown might bring some temporary respite, calm achieved through bloodshed will have its own massive consequences."

"This will affect the position of the leadership. The longer this goes on, more divisions will appear within the establishment and the clergy itself," said Moin.

WILL THESE EVENTS FORCE U.S. PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA TO ABANDON HIS POLICY OF ENGAGEMENT WITH IRAN?

Iranian leaders' reaction to Obama's remarks hints that there will be no engagement in the near future. The supreme leader on Friday for the first time said his views were more similar to the anti-Western president than others who seek a policy of detente(A relaxing or easing, as of tension between rivals.
A policy toward a rival nation or bloc characterized by increased diplomatic, commercial, and cultural contact and a desire to reduce tensions, as through negotiation or talks) with the West.

More than ever, Iran needs a foreign enemy to blame. Since the start of protests, Iranian state media have focused on the "involvement" of the United States and Britain in the turmoil. It will be difficult for Obama to engage with a country that so publicly oppresses its own people.

"Obama now has a major crisis on his hand to manage rather than initiating a dialogue because the consequences of political development in Iran will dramatically affect the rest of the region," said Ehteshami.

Moin said, "I don't think it is an option to abandon it altogether. They may limit the engagement but abandoning it is not an option. They have mutual interests in peace in Afghanistan and Iraq. They need Iran on Afghanistan and Iraq."

DOES KHAMENEI HAVE THE SUPPORT OF SENIOR IRANIAN CLERICS?

There is a clear rift among high-ranking clerics over the disputed election. Former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a supporter of Mousavi, is very influential and respected among clerics and he is also known as one of the leading figures of the 1979 Islamic revolution because he was a very close aide to Khomeini.

Ehteshami said "Khamenei would have said what he said with some assurances from the Guardian Council, Iran's top legislative body which groups clerics and judiciary experts and has the power to endorse or annul the vote."

"He's got only the support of a section not the entire clerical establishment. He relies more on political and military power rather than consensus," Moin added. (Editing by Louise Ireland)