Source: Reuters
By Tom Perry
BEIRUT, May 11 (Reuters) - By briefly taking over Beirut, Hezbollah has shown a readiness to use force against the governing coalition and could bring more to bear in an attempt to end Lebanon's power struggle on its terms.
Whether the governing coalition withstands the pressure will depend largely on the support of foreign backers, including the United States and Saudi Arabia. Neither want Hezbollah's sponsors in Iran and Syria to gain more influence in Lebanon.
But Hezbollah's takeover of Beirut showed there are few options for repelling the latest challenge to Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government and the politicians who back it. Their armed followers were routed by Hezbollah in the capital.
Hezbollah's move in Beirut forced a partial retreat by the government on decisions targeting the group and which had triggered the escalation, including steps against a communications network vital to its military and security wings.
"We no longer have red lines," Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said on Thursday, calling the government decisions a declaration of war in a speech that appeared to give the green light for his fighters to move into the streets.
Hezbollah would use its weapons against anyone who tried to disarm it, said Nasrallah, who had previously always maintained that the arsenal was only for use against Israel.
The statement rewrote the rules in the power struggle between the Hezbollah-led opposition and the governing coalition.
"I think Hezbollah will undertake another campaign in other areas ... if the political demands are not met," said Suleiman Taqieddin, a commentator in the as-Safir newspaper who is familiar with the opposition's thinking.
Hezbollah's move stripped the government of control of the capital, including the airport which has been closed by opposition barricades. Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has not left his headquarters at the Serail palace since last week.
"The government is in the Serail, claiming that it rules and is legitimate, while Hezbollah is on the ground deepening its authority," Taqieddin said. A resolute Hezbollah may try to force it to yield through "another shock", he said.
POWER STRUGGLE
The takeover of Beirut was an escalation of an 18-month-long campaign against the government, whose legitimacy is disputed by the opposition. Backed by many Western and Arab states, the government has refused to give in to opposition demands for effective veto power in cabinet.
Hezbollah and its allies, many of them also backed by Damascus, want to wrestle more power from a cabinet which has pursued an anti-Syria agenda since the country was forced to withdraw troops from Lebanon three years ago.
Analysts say Hezbollah, which sees the cabinet as a tool of U.S. policy, wants to safeguard its arsenal in defiance of a 2004 U.N. Security Council resolution call for all Lebanese militias to be disbanded and disarmed.
The group also wants to secure a say in the running of state security agencies controlled by governing coalition politicians since Syria was forced to withdraw.
The government move against Hezbollah's communications network was seen by the group as a direct attack on its military infrastructure. Although it partially rowed back on the move, the cabinet has not yet given in to opposition demands in the face of what it calls a Hezbollah coup.
A defiant Siniora said the state would not fall into hands of Hezbollah, a Shi'ite Islamist movement. But having withstood 18 months of opposition pressure, some analysts think the government can survive more.
Whether the government buckles will depend largely on the United States and Saudi Arabia. Riyadh has close ties to Saad al-Hariri, a Sunni politician whose supporters were among the routed gunmen.
"I think the United States probably firmed up the back of the government," said Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.
Concerned by growing Iranian influence, Saudi Arabia would "probably see the attack on Beirut as serious as an Iranian attack on Riyadh", said Nadim Shehadi, an expert on Lebanon specialist at Chatham House.
The Saudis knew what is planned for Lebanon and were the first to evacuate their nationls. It is not because of Hezbullah fighters but because of the fear that the USraeli designs. Most Arabs and Muslims believe that Hezbollah is up to the job. Let the USraelis and their agents in the area come out and show us how they fight. In Summer 2006, Iran wanted the Israelis to reach the Litani River before trapping them and destroying few of their brigades. But Sayyd Hasan Nassurallh refused the tactics and didn't want to give Blair-Bush-Olmer's axis of evil a chance to declare victory, albeit for few weeks..
Adnan Darwash, Iraq Occupation Times
Salem questioned the timing of the government's provocative move on Hezbollah's communications network and the severity of the group's response. The United States and Iran had a role in both actions, he said.
"There's a bigger problem," Salem said. "That's probably why we have this crisis and I fear we may have other crises." (Editing by Dominic Evans)
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