How to avoid another oil war in Iraq?

How to avoid another oil war in Iraq?

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By Murat Yetkin Thursday, 13 December 2012 The United States clarified its position on Wednesday regarding Iraqi energy resources and urged both the central government in Baghdad and the Kurdish regional government in the north to reach an agreement, as tension between the two factions continues to rise. The statement by Victoria Nuland, the State Department spokesperson, came just one day after the “we are ready to fight” challenge from Massoud Barzani, the leader of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), after he inspected his troops near the disputed city of Kirkuk. The stance of the U.S. had became a matter of intrigue following an oil and gas conference last week in Arbil, the location of the KRG’s headquarters, with the active participation of U.S.-based energy giants Chevron and Exxon and a number of other key players such as Russian Gazprom and French Total. The conference took place despite the reaction shown by the Nouri al-Maliki government in Baghdad. Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yıldız had wanted to attend the conference but was denied permission to fly by al-Maliki on Dec. 4, so had to turn back.

“There are investments in the KRG region from 19 countries of the world,” Yıldız had told the Hürriyet Daily News at the time. As a country neighboring Iraq, Turkey cannot be an exemption, he said.

The stakes are high. Estimates claim that there are some 45 billion barrels of oil and 3.5 trillion cubic meters of gas waiting to be unearthed in KRG fields. The presence of big U.S. companies in the Kurdish region, despite the complaints of U.S. (and Iran)-backed al-Maliki, had confused minds. In a way, Nuland’s statement aimed to clarify the U.S. position and to sooth the tension over energy resources. “This is our longstanding position,” she said. “We are continuing to urge the Iraqi government and the regional administration in Iraq’s north to reach an agreement over legislation so that they can enhance investment so that everybody knows what the fair legal basis is for this.” When asked about Turkey’s current and possible ventures in the KRG region, Nuland called on “neighboring states” to “similarly avoid any action or comment that could contribute in any way to increasing tensions.” Is Turkey the only party in this conflict, a conflict that has the potential to set the whole region ablaze? No, it isn’t. It is only a belated party in the game because of its chronic Kurdish problem. Is there any reference in Nuland’s statement regarding the stance of the big U.S. energy companies there, which are the main players? No, there isn’t. When anyone asks, they always get the cliche saying: “the U.S. government doesn’t intervene in company affairs.” This might be true, but it falls short in giving a satisfactory explanation for the situation. Is this statement only lip service to sooth down al-Maliki? Even that is doubtful. A similar impasse had been in the region almost a century ago, just before the First World War. A farcical repetition of an oil war in Iraq might again cause changes in governments, regimes, and even borders in the region, with even more bloodshed than the first one. (Murat Yetkin is a columnist at Hurriyet Daily News, where this article was published on Dec. 13, 2012) ================ Total Acquires 35% Interest in Harir and Safen Blocks in Iraq from Marathon Oil- Total Expands in the Middle East as Part of its Oil and Gas Portfolio Optimization - Deal Analysis - new market research report London 12-16-2012 08:38 AM GMT (TransWorldNews) Companiesandmarkets.com Recent Submissions Global handset testing market to hit CAGR of 32.08% between 2011 and 2015 Global green data center market to hit CAGR of 34.06% between 2011 and 2015 Global geographical information system market to hit CAGR of 9.3% between 2011 and 2015 Total Acquires 35% Interest in Harir and Safen Blocks in Iraq from Marathon Oil- Total Expands in the Middle East as Part of its Oil and Gas Portfolio Optimization - Deal Analysis - Total S.A (Total) acquired a 35% working interest in the Harir and Safen blocks in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq from Marathon Oil KDV B.V., a subsidiary of the Marathon Oil Corporation (Marathon). Report Scope - Rationale behind Total's Plan of acquiring stake in Harir and Safen Blocks in Iraq - Rationale behind Marathon divesting stake in the blocks - Geography Covered- Iraq ========== Letter From Kirkuk: How Oil Riches And Ethnic Divisions Threaten Fragile Peace In Iraq In a village near Suleimaniya in Iraqi Kurdistan - (Adam Jones) By Iraq: A Torn City By Birgit DIE WELT/Worldcrunch KIRKUK – Fifty kilometers out of Kirkuk, an oil city in Northern Iraq, the main road from Baghdad is already lined with tanks, artillery, Humvees and patrolling soldiers. Life has returned to the military barracks and checkpoints from the Saddam Hussein era that locals had thought were left behind for good. Tents have also been erected, and you can see officers walking around together pointing at the surrounding hills as if discussing a defense strategy. Nearly all vehicles bear an Iraqi flag – red, white and black with the Arabic words "Allah is Great" in green in the middle. In the barracks there are also black flags and flags with the likeness of Shiite Imam Hussein on them. There is no doubt that this Iraqi army division, which is mainly made up of Shiites, is preparing for battle and is psyching itself up for it. At city limits there’s a border beyond which one sees only policemen, from Kirkuk's multi-ethnic "joint forces" that the Americans created before their final retreat from Iraq nearly a year ago. Leaving Kirkuk and heading north in the direction of Erbil, the capital of the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan, the picture changes again. There are tanks, artillery, Humvees and large numbers of soldiers here too – they aren’t flying the Iraqi flag but the Kurdish one with the bright yellow sun at its center. Also: the men are wearing peshmerga – Kurdish freedom fighter uniforms. The fighting around Kirkuk is notching up. What the United States described as an unresolved conflict, warning of the possible outbreak of civil war, when they withdrew their troops is coming to a head. Here, it’s not about Sunnis and Shiites but Arabs and Kurds. Right now, things are quiet. Three car bombs have gone off in the center of Kirkuk, and many streets are blocked. On the square in front of the Governor’s Palace where the town council also meets, more security forces are standing around than usual. Shopkeepers and restaurant owners are debating whether or not to close up or stay open. "They’re trying to sow chaos so that afterwards they can claim they’re the ones who are trying to maintain order," somebody says by way of explaining the car bombs. The men who are gathered around agree that Arab terrorist groups are behind the accelerated series of attacks in Kirkuk because the devices are mostly placed in parts of the city inhabited by Kurds. Since the "Arab army" moved just outside of the city, the terrorists have had an easier time getting through, says Omeed, the owner of the ice cream shop. With about a million residents, Kirkuk is an unusual mix of ethnicities and religions. All Iraq’s peoples are represented here. Only Baghdad has such a mixed population. But Kirkuk is also the city where most of the Turkmen in Iraq live. They make up about a third of the population. Arabs and Kurds supposedly each make up another third, but these figures are disputed – one of the reasons for local conflicts. The main issue dates back to October 14, 1927, when a huge geyser of oil spurted skyward out of Baba Gurgur just outside the city. The curse of oil "If only we didn’t have the oil, it’s become a curse," Omeed says. He has decided to close shop and accept his cousin’s invitation to dinner at his grand house, where a dozen Kirkuk businessmen have gathered. The atmosphere is tense; the men are nervous. They have never been in a situation like this, says a distinguished older man named Audshi. He is the head of one of the richest Turkmen families in Kirkuk. "We are surrounded by two rival armies that could start fighting any minute now,” he says. Yes, Saddam’s attacks here in the 1980s were brutal: he forced Kurds to leave and moved Arabs in so that he could control the oil. But the enemy was only from Baghdad that time – this time it’s from Baghdad and Erbil, the capital of autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan. Not all the guests share Audshi’s view. At the table, as the discussion heats up over kebabs and kofta meatballs, the differences of opinion illustrate all too well the splits that cripple Kirkuk. Nausad is a Kurd with a Turkmen wife who served for years in Saddam’s army – he now sides with Kurdish President Barzani who claims Kirkuk for Kurdistan. Haider is a Shiite Arab has been dubbed "Maliki" by the others because he supports Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in Baghdad who does not want the Kurds to take over ever more of Kirkuk and the so-called "conflict areas" surrounding it. Mahmoud, a Sunni Arab whose mother is a Kurd, disagrees with both those positions: to his mind "the spats between Erbil and Baghdad are destroying us." The men keep switching between Kurdish, Arabic and Turkmen – most of Kirkuk’s inhabitants speak the three languages, and some even speak four: the tiny Christian minority speaks Assyrian. When the group breaks up at 10 P.M., they have managed to come to a common position, however – it would be best for everyone if Kirkuk were to become an independent, autonomous city. There is an article in the Iraqi Constitution that calls for a popular vote to take place by Nov. 2007 to determine what should happen in Kirkuk. But the referendum has yet to take place. Meanwhile the conflict around Kirkuk has come to be about a lot more than the oil issue. "We do not agree with Arab politicians who want to create a Shiite state here based on the Iranian model," says Muayad al-Tayeb, the speaker of the Kurdish Alliance in the Iraqi parliament in Baghdad. "We also don’t want a Sunni-Arab nation that is basically a one-party dictatorship, as it was in Saddam Hussein’s day." The Kurds want a democratic federal state: "That’s the underlying issue behind this conflict." The head of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Irak (UNAMI), Martin Kobler, also sees the Kurdish-Arab conflict worsening in Kirkuk and surrounding areas. "The political factions haven’t been talking to each other for a year," he told Die Welt. "The Kurds and the Arabs may live in one country but they don’t talk to each other enough." There still are no oil and gas laws to regulate the sector, says Kobler, and most of the unexploited oil and gas fields are in the conflict area. "When the Kurds and Arabs reach agreement about divvying up the riches of the land, the political issues will be easier to deal with." Kobler is counting on provincial elections that will take place next April to calm spirits in and around Kirkuk. The last elections weren’t held because the Arabs called for a boycott. But he believes that "a newly elected provincial council can create the necessary dynamism to deal with the problems" – normalization of relations between ethnic groups, a census, then a referendum. Says Omeed about the Kobler’s optimistic view: “We still have a long way to go.” As a Turkmen he has a somewhat more realistic take on things. Even if the conflict were to wind down in his city, he sees no reconciliation between the Arabs and the Kurds on the horizon. In Erbil, Kurdish President Barzani has already signed oil contracts independently of Baghdad, and improved relations with Turkey. He is also trying to get Syrian Kurds on board: "We’re getting a great deal closer to an independent Kurdish state," he says. This morning’s there’s a downpour so severe the water streams through the streets of Kirkuk. Omeed’s ice cream shop is closed again. Read the article in the original language. Photo by - Adam Jones All rights reserved ©Worldcrunch - in partnership with DIE WELT ================= Iraq attacks kill 25 people An Iraqi youth inspects destruction following two bomb blasts near a Shiite place of worship in the flashpoint town of Tuz Khurmatu in Kirkuk province on Monday. (AFP) Mohamad Ali Harissi and W.G. Dunlop| AFP Monday 17 December 2012 Last Update 17 December 2012 12:54 pm . BAGHDAD: A series of attacks targeting both Iraqi security forces and civilians killed 25 people on Monday, in a second day of deadly violence ahead of the first anniversary of the withdrawal of US forces. The violence comes after a string of attacks killed 19 people and wounded 77 on Sunday. Monday was the deadliest day in Iraq since November 29, when 50 people were killed. US military forces completed their withdrawal from Iraq on December 18 last year, ending a nearly nine-year war that cost the lives of tens of thousands of Iraqis, thousands of Americans and hundreds of billions of dollars. Violence in Iraq is down significantly from its peak in 2006 and 2007, but while Iraqi forces have held their own since the US departure, insurgent groups still pose a significant threat, and attacks occur almost daily. Gunmen attacked a police checkpoint on the highway west of Tikrit, killing one policeman and wounding three, a police lieutenant colonel said. A police patrol chased the gunmen, who abandoned their car and then detonated explosives in it, killing four more police and wounding two, the officer said. A doctor confirmed the toll. In the village of Al-Buslaibi, north of Baghdad, a roadside bomb targeting an army patrol killed three soldiers, the army and police said. And gunmen attacked an army checkpoint in the north Iraqi city of Mosul, killing one soldier. A car bomb in Khaznah, a village near Mosul populated by the small Shabak minority, killed seven people and wounded 12, while two car bombs near a Shiite place of worship killed five and wounded 26 in the northern flashpoint town of Tuz Khurmatu, security and medical sources said. Three roadside bombs exploded near Baquba, north of Baghdad, killing one person and wounding four others, while two car bombs in the city wounded six people, police and medics said. A salvo of 10 mortar rounds slammed into the town of Rutba in Anbar province, killing two and wounding nine, officials said, and a car bomb near Dujail north of Baghdad killed one Iraqi and wounded at least 10 Iranian pilgrims. Iraqi security forces have been able to hold violence in check, with the number of people killed in the first 11 months of 2012 fewer than in the same period the year before, according to government figures. “The security situation has remained largely unchanged, despite the withdrawal of American troops. This in itself is a remarkable achievement,” said Joost Hiltermann, deputy director of the International Crisis Group’s Middle East and North Africa program. But insurgent groups remain a threat, carrying out attacks in Iraq that kill well over 100 people a month on average and wound many more. “The withdrawal of US forces meant that training became reduced, intelligence gathering became limited and quick reaction forces were no longer as well resourced or able to reach flashpoints at short notice,” said John Drake, an analyst with AKE group. “However, counter-insurgency operations and arrests didn’t decline,” Drake said, though “the Iraqi military still has a long way to go in terms of building capabilities, and they remain under-resourced and regularly targeted.” Mohamad Ali Harissi and W.G. Dunlop| AFP Monday 17 December 2012 Last Update 17 December 2012 12:54 pm . ==================