* Baghdad received Exxon Mobil letter on March 5
* Has not yet ruled out excluding Exxon from bidding round
PARIS, March 16 (Reuters) - Iraq's government has received a letter from Exxon Mobil Corp saying the U.S. oil major had frozen its deal with the country's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, Iraq's oil minister Abdul Kareem Luaibi said on Friday.
The U.S. company had angered Baghdad by signing an exploration deal with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), which the central government considers illegal.
"We received a letter from Exxon on March 5 saying they are freezing the contract with the Kurds," Luaibi told Reuters on the sidelines of a news conference.
He said the Iraqi government had not yet reversed its intention to exclude Exxon Mobil from its next oil bidding round. When asked whether it had done so, he replied: "Until now, no."
"But maybe in a few days" Baghdad could change its position, if Exxon gave more clarification of its decision, he said.
Iraq earlier this month set a deadline of a few days for Exxon to explain its position on oil agreements signed with the Kurdish region, a government spokesman said at the time.
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) announced in November the signing of a deal for six exploration blocs with Exxon, the first major oil company to deal directly with the Kurds in northern Iraq.
Iraq's central government has said that deal could jeopardise Exxon's contract to develop the supergiant West Qurna-1 oil field in southern Iraq.
A spokesman for Exxon declined to comment.
Exxon Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson told Wall Street analysts earlier this month that his company is committed to exploring in Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region, as well as to expanding its West Qurna output in southern Iraq.
Asked in the news conference to comment on the stance of France's Total, which said in February it was considering possible investments in Kurdistan, Luaibi said through a French interpreter:
"The situation is clear: we do not accept, we cannot authorise companies to sign bilateral agreements with the regional authorities."
Luaibi also said Iraq would reach oil output of 3.4 million barrels per day by the of this year, just days after the country's oil production exceeded 3 million for the first time in more than three decades.
"By the end of the year we will manage to produce 3.4 million and to export 2.6 million barrels per day," he said, adding output by the end of 2017 could reach 10 mln bpd.
Iraq's oil and gas fields have suffered from decades of neglect because of war and economic sanctions. In the past three years it has done a raft of deals with foreign oil firms, and more deals are on offer that would make it the world's biggest source of new oil production over the next several years.
However, Baghdad has offered fee-for-service contracts rather than the production-sharing agreements which foreign firms consider more lucrative.
The Kurdish region has offered production-sharing deals to firms willing to do business directly with it, but before Exxon's deal last year, only smaller firms had agreed to participate.
Shares of Exxon closed up 35 cents, or less than 1 percent, at $86.44 on the New York Stock Exchange .
===
Exxon sets spending at $185B over next 5 years
Exxon plans to spend $185 billion over next 5 years on traditional, new sources of energy
Associated PressBy Chris Kahn, AP Energy Writer | Associated Press – Thu, Mar 8, 2012 12:34 PM EST
NEW YORK (AP) -- Exxon said Thursday that it will spend about $150 billion over the next five years to find more oil and natural gas to satisfy for the world's growing energy appetite.
Exxon, the world's largest publicly traded energy company, expects global energy demand to increase 30 percent by 2040, compared with 2010 levels. As demand grows, Tillerson said Exxon will plow more money into a global search for new resources. Including investments in its refining and chemicals business, Exxon's capital budget for 2012 through 2016 will total $185 billion, up 29 percent from the prior five-year period.
"Unprecedented levels of investment are needed to meet the scale of the energy challenge," CEO Rex Tillerson told analysts at the New York Stock Exchange.
Major oil companies are struggling to tap new sources of oil fast enough in an environment where big finds are rarer and costlier to exploit. Potential fields lie deep under the seabed, or in shale rock formations that require expensive technology to crack open. When companies can't find oil fast enough, they're stuck with aging fields where production is on the decline. International production agreements also reduce how much they can sell as prices rise.
Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., BP and Royal Dutch Shell all produced less crude last year than in the prior year.
Tillerson said Exxon's production could fall by another 3 percent this year, when compared with 2011. He also reduced the company's long-term expectation for average annual production growth to 2-3 percent, from a previous forecast of 4-5 percent.
Exxon has steadily increased its access to oil and gas fields during the past several years through exploration and acquisition. But its focus recently has been on developing more natural gas, which the company believes will replace coal as the second-most popular fuel in 2025. Natural gas has made up more than half of Exxon's proven reserves since 2009, and in 2010 it spent $30 billion to acquire XTO Energy and become the largest natural gas producer in the U.S.
Its natural gas bet so far hasn't paid off. Prices have plummeted this year following a production boom in North America and weak winter heating demand. Natural gas futures hit a 10-year low of $2.302 per 1,000 cubic feet on Wednesday.
Competitors such as Chesapeake Energy Corp. and ConocoPhillips have cut back on natural gas production this year in an effort to reduce a national surplus.
Exxon says it won't reduce gas production, though it will focus its future projects toward bringing more oil to market. The company said that production of crude and other liquid hydrocarbons will increase by 2 to 3 percent per year through 2016, outpacing increases in natural gas production.
Altogether, Exxon said 21 oil and gas productions will begin production by 2014, and it expects to add more than 1 million barrels per day of oil and gas by 2016.
High oil prices have supported Exxon's financial performance. Exxon's net income rose almost 35 percent in 2011.
Exxon shares fell 90 cents in morning trading Thursday, to $84.93.
=============
Shahristani: It will end badly for you.
Najork
3UP
Shahristani,
Unless you give ground on the oil and gas law , the following will happen:
1. Kurdistan will declare independence. Thereafter a great deal of oil majors will quit Southern Iraq
2. Thereafter if Maliki hasn't already quit Southern Iraq also and gone to live in Monaco, he will beg Iran for money and weapons. The US will refuse to supply the F15s currently on order.
3. Iran will agree to give money and weapons to Southern Iraq in exchange for siting nuclear weapons closer to Israel.
4. The US, UK , all EU nations,South Africa, Saudi Arabia , India , Australia and Zealand will sign up to aggressive action against you and against Iran.
5. You days will end in a very unpleasant manner.
If you decide to work something out on the oil and gas law:
1. you can depose Maliki. (That's all you want really isn't it?)
2. You will keep Kurdistan and become an ally of the Barzani dynasty.
3. You will keep Iran off everybody's back and stop a nuclear war.
4. You will die peacefully in Geneva surrounded by money, snow (which your Canadian wife loves) , chocolate and COFFEE.
Najork.
===========
Could Sinopec be Gulf Keystone's mystery suitor?
By Tamsin Carlisle on January 13, 2012 1:02 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks
Takeover intrigue is swirling around Bermuda-registered Gulf Keystone Petroleum after the company's market value surged to a record GBP2.28 billion ($3.51 billion) in hectic trading earlier this week on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange.
The stock has since retreated on profit-taking, with most investors apparently none the wiser about who might be lining up an offer for Gulf Keystone or its giant Shaikan heavy-oil field in Iraqi Kurdistan.
The chief suspects include some of the world's biggest international oil companies, with US-based ExxonMobil and Chevron heading the list.
Genel Energy, the Anglo-Turkish independent led by former BP CEO Tony Hayward, also has been proposed by some as possibly preparing a bid.
The FTSE company, formed in November through a merger between UK investment vehicle Vallares and Turkey's Genel Enerji, happens to be Gulf Keystone's partner in Kurdistan's Ber Bahr exploration block, on trend with Shaikan. Genel puts the untested resource potential of the block at 1.5 billion barrels of oil, Gulf Keystone disclosed on Monday.
Gulf Keystone itself set off the day-long stock market frenzy with a cryptic public statement pointing to the contractual validity of Kurdish Regional Government options to farm out its carried interests in Shaikan and other oil blocks to third parties. Otherwise, the company is acting coy.((Tending to avoid people and social situations; reserved.))
Reached late Tuesday by Platts, Gulf Keystone CEO Todd Kozel would say only that any development potentially affecting the company's share price would be announced through "proper channels".
Missing in action
KRG officials have been unreachable. Key members of the regional government's natural resources department remain missing in action, their multiple cell phones with Iraqi and UK numbers turned off. The whereabouts of Gulf Keystone's country manager for Kurdistan is likewise unknown, even to his friends.
Are government and company officials huddled in a meeting at a secret location? All signs point in that general direction, but what precise geographical location would that be?
Ruled out
For starters, Genel's London head office can be crossed off the list. The high-flying start-up with about $2 billion of cash reserves is well capitalized for what it is.: a small, cash-flow driven independent oil producer. But at this point it has neither the financial nor tehcnical depth to take on the full-field development of Shaikan, a world-class deposit of 10 billion barrels or more of heavy crude.
Rather, the post-merger Genel is tightly focused on realizing the significant upside potential of its existing assets, including its 25% stake in Kurdistan's first producing oil field, Tawke. On Tuesday, Genel said a new independent appraisal had boosted Tawke's estimated proven and probable oil reserves by 78% to more than half a billion barrels.
Also off the list for now is Chevron's global headquarters in San Ramon, California.
The international supermajor is not among those, including rival ExxonMobil, that have signed services agreements with Baghdad to develop and rehabilitate Iraq's large southern oilfields, so might pursue production sharing deals with the KRG with fewer political risks. Baghdad considers the KRG's contracts illegal and has blacklisted companies signing them from bidding on projects in the rest of Iraq.
But sources close to Chevron have told Platts that the company is not interested in doing business in any part of Iraq.
France's Total, which like Chevron and ExxonMobil has plenty of experience in exploiting heavy crude, has also declared a lack of interest in Shaikan, ruling out takeover discussions in Paris.
That leaves ...
ExxonMobil, which reportedly has an exploration and production license for a Kurdish block adjacent to Shaikan, is another matter. It characteristically stated to Platts Tuesday that it never comments on market rumours.
Indeed, it has yet to confirm the KRG's landmark announcement in November that the company had signed contracts for six Kurdish exploration blocks.
However, ExxonMobil typically holds its cards exceedingly close to its chest, so it is too early to conclude that there are no signposts pointing to Irving, Texas.
But what if they point in exactly the opposite direction...to Beijing?
Chinese refining giant Sinopec is Beijing's chosen vehicle for oil investments in Kurdistan, leaving opportunities in the rest of Iraq for other state-controlled oil enterprises such as China National Petroleum Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation.
So far, Baghdad has not taken the drastic step of banning governments whose state-affiliated petroleum entities have signed KRG contracts from doing business in the rest of Iraq.
Sinopec gained its initial foothold in Kurdistan in 2009 by acquiring the Kurdish operations of Addax Petroleum, which was Genel Enerji's partner in developing Kurdistan's second producing field, Taq Taq. It is no secret that the Chinese company is seeking further acquisitions in the region, for which it is willing to pay handsomely.
Moreover, Sinopec operates huge heavy oil refineries in China, and since 2005 has been learning about the upstream end of the business through international partnerships with heavy-oil producers.
In June 2011, Sinopec and Norway's Statoil brought Brazil's technically challenging Peregrino offshore heavy-oil field into production. Also in 2011, Sinopec invested $4/65 billion to buy ConocoPhillip's 9% stake in Canada's biggest oil sands project, Syncrude, after serving a six-year apprenticeship in the country's oil sands sector through a smaller deal.
The KRG might welcome Sinopec as a potential operator for the Shaikan oil field, as China could in time become a valued customer for Kurdish crude.
For his part, Gulf Keystone's Kozel, with limited technical and resources at his disposal, will be looking to cash out on Shaikan with the biggest possible pot of money to fund his next business venture.
The stars seem well aligned for Sinopec to bid for Gulf Keystone or its biggest asset.
Ever enigmatic, ExxonMobil may be eyeing the action, waiting for Beijing to make the first move.
======
Exxon deals not frozen, KRG says
Exxon2 resized2
Senior ExxonMobil officials attend the signing of the West Qurna 1 contract in Baghdad in January 2010. (BEN LANDO/Iraq Oil Report)
By Ben Lando of Iraq Oil Report
Published March 18, 2012
A top Kurdish official said ExxonMobil is moving forward with its contracts, contradicting a statement made by the Iraqi Oil Minister that the oil giant has agreed to freeze its work in the semi-autonomous northern region.
"All production sharing agreements signed with the KRG are progressing normally," said a KRG official close to its oil policy. "Companies are fulfilling their contractual obligations. It is business as usual, no interruptions, no freezes, despite claims to the contrary."
Kurds say Exxon still working in N. Iraq
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ARBIL, Iraq, March 17 | Sat Mar 17, 2012 7:40am EDT
(Reuters) - The government of Iraq's autonomous region believes Exxon Mobil has not suspended its work there, an aide to the region's president said on Saturday.
Iraq's oil minister said on Friday that Exxon had written to Baghdad informing it that it had frozen its work in the Kurdish region, under a deal which Baghdad considers illegal.
"We've never heard anything like this from Exxon Mobil. We have continuous meetings with Exxon Mobil's senior executives and I think the company is continuing its work," said Fuad Hussein, senior aide to Kurdish President Masoud Barzani.
Aswat Al Iraq / Politics , Baghdad
Barzani's statement clear message to Iraqi people - MP
3/16/2012 1:00 PM
BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: An al-Iraqiya Bloc MP regarded the statement made by Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani as a clear-cut message to the Iraqi people.
"The message tells the truth that the governmental practices are unilateral with one-party behavior that will lead to a chaos in governmental establishments," MP Talal al-Zoba'I told Aswat al-Iraq.
"The government is unable to deal with the security dossier, as well as the services sector," he confirmed
Barzani announced on Thursday that who do not recognize oil contracts in Kurdistan are "losers" and "do not want security stability and the reconstruction of the region."
He confirmed the legality of oil contracts in Kurdistan.
Commenting on Vice-President Tariq al-Hashimi's case, he stressed that Hashimi will not be handed over to Baghdad.
He emphasized the need to convence the National Conference before the Arab Summit.
=========
16:46
Fundamentals Unchanged...
forthelonghaul
37UP
if not improving...
The last couple of weeks has been disappointing for a long term investor like myself. The rise to 450 was what I had been expecting and when it happened I was happy. Now it has fallen down on the back of NOTHING. I am annoyed; yes, but disheartened; no. The price movements indicate more strongly than ever that GKP is worth ‘fighting over’. The following factors have been used to explain the fall
- Exxon withdrawing
- an HSBC broker's note
- Excalibur’s legal case
MEANWHILE
- the price of brent oil continues to rise, as has the FTSE. Confidence in the US, China and the EU economies has markedly improved.
- more companies are seeking active involvement in Kurdistan (e.g. Total)
- Exxon are still in Kurdistan
- Excalibur’s claim in the courts increasingly appears to be vexatious and without hope
- The billions of barrels of oil sitting in the great baths of Shaikan, Ber Behr etc etc...are still sitting there, waiting to be monetised by one of the global oil corporations.
- The interest in GKP has not dissipated. GKP's reserves may be the last ever find on such a scale.
- OIP Upgrades, in particular on Shaikan are expected.
- The knock-out RNS with the multi billion $ offer could still be the next 7am RNS away.
The night is at its darkest just before dawn... I believe the same may be said for this discussion board. The mood is dark and investors are frustrated by inarticulate, motor mouths who trade and make statements without reference to any moral principles.
Keep this board alive, it is this board that led me to invest here in the first place. May many other 'little PIs', buy in on the back of the well researched posts here and make profit out of the wonderful opportunity that GKP represents.
This is a once in a lifetime opportunity, rise above the petulance on here. ((petulance: Unreasonably irritable or ill-tempered; peevish.
Contemptuous in speech or behavior.)) As Scaramouche expressed eloquently, respond only with reasoned argument and logic, not through petty name calling.
Viva la GKP board. Long live the GKP iii board no matter how short lived GKP as a company may be!
n.b. Oh and as a footnote, happy mother's day to all. Everyone has or has had a mother. Do them or their memory proud and act with moral integrity and principles on an internet board, just as you should in everyday life.
FTLH
=======
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Iraq approves Hormuz oil exports contingency plan
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Sun Mar 18, 2012 9:57am EDT
* Preparing in case Strait of Hormuz closed
* Plans to up exports via Ceyhan
* New pipelines to ship Basra crude to Ceyhan
By Ahmed Rasheed
BAGHDAD, March 18 (Reuters) - Iraq has approved a plan to expand its oil export routes by adding capacity from its northern fields and building a pipeline to ship oil from southern fields to Ceyhan in Turkey, a government spokesman said.
The contingency plan was set by the government's energy and economic committee to deal with any potential crisis should Iran close the Strait of Hormuz, which would halt about 80 percent of Iraq's oil exports.
Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, used for a third of the world's seaborne oil trade, if Western moves to ban Iranian crude exports crippled its energy sector.
"Short and mid-term plans will be through boosting crude pumping and upgrading export capacity via Ceyhan port in Turkey. Also to increase the number of trucks that are shipping crude," government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said on Sunday.
Iraq exported 2.014 million barrels per day in February, including 1.711 million bpd from its southern oil hub of Basra and via exports terminal in the Gulf, and 375,000 bpd from its northern fields around Kirkuk to Ceyhan.
Dabbagh said plans approved by the government were a short-term measure based on recommendations from the oil ministry, and said stepping up efforts to convince Iran and the United States of the need to avoid closing the Strait of Hormuz.
"The oil ministry suggested accelerating work to complete building the north strategic pipeline and connect it to the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to export oil from Basra via Ceyhan port," Dabbagh said.
Iraq has also been moving ahead with building a 680 kilometre pipeline able to transport 1 million bpd of crude from southern oilfields around Basra to a main pumping station in Haditha in the west, an oil ministry spokesman said.
"We managed to complete constructing 200 km of the pipeline with plans to finish all work in 2013. We will have the flexibility of shipping Basra crude to various destinations, including towards Ceyhan port," Asim Jihad said.
The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline has come under sabotage attacks many times since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, and frequently breaks down due to technical faults.
Under the contingency plan, Iraq may revive the Iraq-Syria pipeline as a long-term measure to ship crude from southern fields to Banias in the Mediterranean. Plans to build a pipeline to transport crude to Jordan's Aqaba port were also considered.
Last year, Iraqi and Jordanian officials said the two countries had agreed in principle to build a pipeline to supply Jordan with crude oil in future. Iraq transports 10,000-15,000 bpd of crude exports in trucks to Jordan.
Dabbagh said the plan also encouraged talks with top OPEC oil exporter Saudi Arabia to ship Iraqi crude to Yanbu on the Read Sea.
Iraq has managed to operate a first floating terminal which could help boosting oil exports from the southern fields to 2.2 million bpd. (Editing by Serena Chaudhry and Dan Lalor)
========
Iraq moves to diversity oil export options from Hormuz
Sunday, 18 March 2012
Iranian crude supplies have hit a snag in the face of U.S.-led sanctions. (Reuters)
Iranian crude supplies have hit a snag in the face of U.S.-led sanctions. (Reuters)
inShare
By Al Arabiya with AFP
Iraq moved on Sunday to diversify its oil export routes to reduce the impact of a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran on Baghdad’s oil-dependent income, as well as the world economy.
The plans, recommended by parliament’s energy and economics committees, include efforts to ramp up exports along a pipeline to Turkey, increase the amount of oil transported by road, and “urgently” fix disused transport pipelines, according to a statement from government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh.
He said Iraq’s cabinet on Sunday adopted the recommendations which also included working to reopen the Banias-Tripoli pipeline that runs from Syria to Lebanon but has been closed since 1990, and, if thawing Iraq-Saudi relations continue to improve, a disused pipeline through Saudi Arabia as well.
The committees “also recommended that in the short term there be more efforts to convince the Iranian and American sides of the necessity of avoiding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz because it will damage the global economy, and Gulf countries especially.”
Iran has threatened retaliation for fresh Western sanctions over its nuclear program, including a possible disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a Gulf chokepoint for global oil shipments, including 80 percent of Iraq’s oil exports.
Dabbagh told AFP in an interview last month Iraq was worried by U.S.-Iran tensions and would be one of the worst affected if the strait was closed to shipments of crude oil.
Iraq currently produces more than three million barrels per day, with exports averaging about 2.1 to 2.2 million bpd. Crude sales account for the lion's share of Baghdad's government income.
Offering crude to Sri Lanka
Iraq on Sunday also come forward to offer “substantial quantities” of crude oil to Sri Lanka, as the island desperately looks for alternatives to Iranian crude.
Iran supplies nearly 92 percent of Sri Lanka’s imported crude. But supplies have hit a snag in the face of U.S.-led sanctions aimed at spurring Tehran to abandon its nuclear program.
Any country importing goods from Iran after would be subject to U.S. penalties.
The Colombo-based Sunday Times newspaper quoted Petroleum Ministry officials saying that Sri Lanka would stop crude oil imports from Iran from March 29, ahead of the U.S. June 28th deadline.
Sri Lanka’s refinery, built with Italian technology in 1968, can handle Iranian or Saudi light crude and talks were underway to get more Saudi oil, as well as increase refined petroleum product imports from Iraq and Oman.
India has said it will continue to import oil from Iran, joining China in refusing to bow to intensifying U.S. pressure not to do business with the Islamic republic.
=======
Re: Kurdish Independence
lacabush
43UP
Let me get this straight. The Kurds have massive news coming out Excaliber have till the 4th April to pay9.5 million and Exon are not going anywhere and people on this board are telling folk to sell. You couldnt make it up!
=======
10:49
DYOR
Rags 2 Rags
13UP
Experienced traders & investors who do their own research should ignore this post. It will be like teaching granny to suck eggs..........
When the sp was over 400p, someone posted that it was nice that virtually all bb members here would be sitting on a profit, however modest. Now that is no longer the case, would it be rude to ask how many people jumped into a frenzied market and ended up buying at or near the top? (Not expecting an answer to that, by the way, lol)
There's a trend towards leaving off the IMHO, DYOR etc endings to posts at the moment, which is a shame, and maybe in the frantic chase to catch a rising share, people do take short cuts or follow tips from others, without doing their own PROPER research? During rationing times after the war, people used to see a queue outside a shop and join it, on the basis that there must be something worth having if so many wanted it.
For some, it's just too boring anyway, and for others, there just isn't time, if they're worried they'll miss the boat, train or whatever.
But, I suspect, even in quieter times, it may also be a case of not really knowing where to start. It's not easy. I can't read a BBBS post and tell you whether he's right or wrong throughout, nor can I spot potential fraud brewing when reading the financial statements of a company like, let's say, Enron.
But there are plenty of common sense, non-technical checks you can and should make (IMVHO )
With apologies to those who already know this stuff, here's a basic checklist I use - it's just a quick braindump. It's not exhaustive, so feel free to add, amend, share, do whatever you want to it (within reason!). It might come in useful next time you are parting with your hard-earned wonga. NB. I only use it for the BUY part - trading, holding, selling out decisions need a different thought process.
CHECKLIST FOR “DYOR”
1.Background & track record of directors, the history of the company to date, governance
2.How many shares in public hands; if closely held, effect on share price
3.Finance – cash, funding, debt, likelihood of future dilution
4.Attractiveness to predators or ability to go it alone: the prospects for takeover, joint venture or merger
5.Competitive moat? ((A deep wide ditch, usually filled with water, typically surrounding a fortified medieval town, fortress, or castle as a protection against assault.))USP, patents, contracts, close competitors
6.Sector/industry heatmap - how does the company compare to its peers and is the sector buoyant?
7.Volumes typically traded and normal bid/ask spread.
8.Volatility – does it lend itself to investing and/or trading?
9.Geography – stable area, risk of government interference, politics etc
10.FTSE versus AIM risks
11.Company life cycle – different risk/reward/timescale; for commodities, proven reserves, NAV versus established income stream, prospect of divis
12.The binary play – duster or gusher; is there a plan B eg multiple projects?
13.History of the share price; analyse previous dips and spikes, dates, RNSs. Forget 2008/9,, when making money was easy - times change. Macro-economic climate and degree of effect on company performance
Rags
======
Presentation
New presentation on Web
http://www.gulfkeystone.com/uploads/investor_presentation_march_2012.pdf
Hub
19UP
The fact that the FD did the presentation suggests that it was to like minded individuals.
I don't think this was to the banks as this more down to Mirabaud and co and they usually do the 'sounding' out on the quiet.
This feels more to me like a presentation to the red tape brigade at the prestigious and very exclusive premium ftse listing club.
Toddy did say he hoped April/May would see GKP move from AIM.
Of course - a small placing would certainly help placate the FTSE boys club who would appreciate a softener before being forced into buying via the trackers.
The presentation shows that there's plenty of news cued up for May time.
Might be an idea to get this next Oil major on the premium list pronto eh boys?
HUB
robbiepaul2
14UP
• High impact drilling campaign planned and funded
through 2012/13 based on current plans
• Targeting 6 exploration wells and 3 appraisal wells
• 7 rigs across 4 blocks (3 x GKP, 3 x MOL and 1 x
Genel Energy
"FUNDED"
======
16:36
Daily Volumes
MikeyAdmin
45UP
Auction.
251.25p.................662
252.25p.................6,365
Auction between 267.5 and 242.75
251p......................6,365
252.25p.................8,266
250p.......................26,937
250p........................27,601
251p........................9,099
251.75p..................15,137
261.75p..................16,636
251.75p..................20,786
and closed
LSE, 4, 335,487
AT's, 2,522,722
Trades, 1, 619
UT, 20,786
SP, 251.75p
The Auction started with 1,900 @ 251p then went down to 6,900 @ 250.25p then up again to open with a UT of 7,900 @ 251.25p, so there was little interest shown.
At 8.15am a 50,000 @ 250p re-appeared on the Bid so probably the same trade as yesterday, and is presently accompanied by another 47,000
Yesterday, those Orders at 250p, some Iceberg Orders had over 533,000 sold to them and supported the SP after they appeared at 8.12am after the fall to 247p
9.45am, SP 253.4p, Volumes 519,530.……………AT’s 176,985 = 34.06% which is the lowest I have seen the Automatic Trades since July last year.
9.05am, SP 254.6p, Volumes 696,521.……….AT’s 253,656 = 36.41% rising a little
1,811,355.……….1,583,467
138.……….99
The Bid side has risen by 200,000 with Orders being placed at 245p, 240p and SCAP, LIBC, RENA, FOXY BMCM, MLSB, and INV are all line up above each other from 238p down to 236p
PEEL is down at the bottom of the Bid @ 234p and top MM at 264p on the Ask, making me suspect the Orders at 250p possibly above belong to him
9.30am, SP 251.6p, Volumes 801,775.……AT’s 320,932 = 40.02% rising IMO as Orders are passed over and sells come to the Bid.
10.05am, SP 251.25p, Volumes 1,131,486.…..AT’s 471,067 = 41.63%.
11.50am, SP 251.4p, Volumes 1,417,735.……AT’s 664,758 = 46.88% so rising I suspect because of PEEL’s Orders being passed over around the 252p level.
11.18am, and a delayed trade from 10.46am of 79,836 goes through at 251.25p
11.20am, SP 250.75p, Volume 1,614,825.……AT’s 748,659 = 46.36%
12.45am, SP 251.1p.
I’m off to sort a Htg System
2.15pm, SP 250.5p, Volumes 3.121,439.………….AT’s 1,778,721 = 56.98%
The 250p Orders are now on the Touch line and amount to 5 totalling 20,008, though how many of them are Iceberg Orders, its difficult to say, but one certainly is, and a large one at that.
Other Orders yesterday and today have been forced to bid higher for Shares, so the 250p orders have supported the SP for two days now.
2.22pm and the top 250p Order has been replaced with another 50,000 Order
Other than the 250p Orders, I can see no other activity of consequence.
15.44pm, and a little spurt upwards in the SP @ 253.1p
Anyone for a higher close today.
4.00pm, SP 252.25p, Volumes 3,993,562.…..AT’s 2,364,035 = 59.19%
Note how the AT Volumes have crept up over the last two days, and today since the US opened at 2pm, probably due the Orders being filled from the 250p Buys by PEEL being passed to US buyer/s in my opinion.
4.10pm, SP 252.1p, Volumes 4,023,610.…….AT’s 2,367,560 = 58,84% so the peak has been reached
4.15pm, SP 252.4p, Volume 4,143,335.……..AT’s 2,437,291 = 58.83%
4.20pm, SP 252.4p,
4.25pm, SP 251.5p, and the orders at 250 beckon, up or level for the day
Just another day in the life of GKP, and another day closer to the FTSE or a Takeover.
Mikey
======
Appalling use of English
Author umr11 View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 15:14
Subject Re: Appalling use of English View parent message
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 44 times.
Message
The European Union commissioners have announced that agreement has been reached to adopt English as the preferred language for European communications, rather than German, which was the other possibility.
As part of the negotiations, the British government conceded that English spelling had some room for improvement and has accepted a five year phased plan for what will be known as EuroEnglish (Euro for short).
In the first year, "s" will be used instead of the soft "c". Sertainly, sivil servants will reseive this news with joy. Also, the hard "c" will be replaced with "k". Not only will this klear up konfusion, but typewriters kan have one less letter.
There will be growing public enthusiasm in the sekond year, when the troublesome "ph" will be replased by "f". This will make words like "fotograf" 20 persent shorter.
In the third year, publik akseptanse of the new spelling kan be expected to reach the stage where more komplikated changes are possible. Governments will enkorage the removal of double letters, which have always ben a deterent to akurate speling. Also, al wil agre that the horible mes of silent "e"s in the language is disgrasful, and they would go.
By the fourth year, peopl wil be reseptiv to steps such as replasing "th" by "z" and "w" by "v". During ze fifz year, ze unesesary "0" kan be dropd from vords kontaining "ou", and similar changes vud, of kors, be aplid to ozer kombinations of leters.
Und efter ze fifz yer, ve vil al be speking German lik zey vunted in ze forst plas…
Its not "could of", "should of" or "seems to of" etc etc
its "could have", "should have" and "seems to have".
==========================================
This isn't an "Its", it's an "It's".
Appalling use of English
grunties
23UP
Sorry. Start of mini-rant.
Why do so many posters use the word "of" in phrases instead of "have" ?
Its not "could of", "should of" or "seems to of" etc etc
its "could have", "should have" and "seems to have".
(or "could've" & "should've" to abbreviate)
Surely if you've got money to invest on here you must HAVE taken basic English?
ok mini-rant over.
as you were
pathai
9UP
Whilst you are enjoying your brew and butty, I will enjoy my cognac and coffee.
Goodnight all and GL.
======
RPT-Norway's DNO strikes oil in northern part of prize Iraqi field
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Wed Mar 21, 2012 3:30am EDT
(Reuters) - Norwegian oil firm DNO International has found a rich source of oil in a part of its prize Tawke oilfield in northern Iraq, the firm said on Wednesday.
The well, called Tawke-16, was drilled to probe the unexplored northern flank of the fied. It flowed at a cumulative rate in excess of 25,000 barrels per day and encountered over 350 metres of gross continuous oil column, said DNO.
"Tawke-16 likely is the most prolific well drilled so far in this field by the company," Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani, DNO International's Executive Chairman, said in a statement.
DNO, which has a 55 percent stake in the field, aims for Tawke to produce 100,000 barrels per day before year-end. The other partners in the field are Genel (25 percent) and the Kurdistan Regional Government (20 percent).
======
21:21
Parella - announced less than 33 working...
Lost for choice
17UP
Date : 09/02/2012 @ 08:25
Gulf Keystone Calls In Advisers To Help With Iraq Asset Sale
Gulf Keystone (LSE:GKP)
'Iraq-focused oil company Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (GKP.LN) Thursday said it has appointed corporate advisers to help it sell its 20% stake in the Akri-Bijeel block in Kurdistan, northern Iraq, almost five months after putting it on the market.
In September, Chief Executive Todd Kozel told Dow Jones Newswires he expected a quick sale due to the high level of interest from large oil companies in this highly prospective region.
Gulf Keystone's partner in Akri-Bijeel and the operator, MOL Nyrt. (MOL.BU), holds the remaining 80% stake. MOL estimates that the Akri-Bijeel discovery contains around 2.4 billion barrels of oil and the Hungarian firm is continuing an exploration and appraisal program to find more oil prospects in the block.
Gulf Keystone has been trying to sell its stake to focus on its Shaikan oil discovery, which is estimated to contain around 8 billion barrels of oil. Gulf Keystone holds 75% of Shaikan, MOL has 20% and U.S.-based Texas Keystone Inc. has the remaining 5%.
The firm appointed Strand Hanson Ltd. and Perella Weinberg Partners UK LLP as joint corporate advisers to help with the Akri-Bijeel disposal'.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
What does everyone expect.
Deal done within days of appointment?
Get real.
There has to be a very good reason these guys were brought on board, and that reason has to be very positive.
It's time for patience whilst the boys work in the background.
======
Iraq and BP sign Deal for Kirkuk Oil Field
Posted on 24 March 2012. Tags: BP, Kirkuk, Kurdistan, North Oil Company, oil contracts
Iraq and BP sign Deal for Kirkuk Oil Field
AKnews reports on Saturday that Iraq’s state-owned North Oil Company has signed a preliminary agreement with BP to increase production at the Kirkuk oilfield from about 280,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 580,000 bpd.
Hussein Allam, the undersecretary of North Oil Company said:
“The initial agreement is part of a high-level plan carried out by the Oil Ministry through the Northern Oil Company to develop the production of the northern fields through a partnership contract signed with BP.“
The Kurdistan Region opposes any oil contract to develop oil fields located within the borders of Kirkuk province and other areas in which ownership is disputed between Baghdad and Erbil.
(Source: AKnews)
=======
Analysis: Gas price spike revives fight over energy taxes
Mon, Mar 26 07:46 AM EDT
image
By Kim Dixon
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil, the world's most profitable corporation, says it paid more than 45 percent of its 2011 income in taxes, while critics say it paid much less.
So which is it?
The answer is that it depends on how the calculation is made and who is making it - a point that is becoming more important as gasoline prices and oil company profits soar.
Energy industry taxes are again a political issue, with just months to go before the November 6 congressional and presidential elections. President Barack Obama says he wants to kill $40 billion in tax breaks enjoyed by giants such as Exxon, Chevron and Conoco.
"Oil companies are making more money right now than they've ever made," Obama said earlier this month. "On top of the money they're getting from you at the gas station every time you fill up, they want some of your tax dollars as well."
But the companies say they already pay among the highest corporate tax rates.
"We're the highest taxed industry that I'm aware of," Chevron Chief Executive John Watson said earlier this month.
The difference between the effective tax rate cited by Exxon and lower rates cited by groups such as Citizens for Tax Justice, a left-leaning tax activist group, has several causes.
One is that the company counts foreign taxes paid, while Citizens for Tax Justice does not. Another is that Exxon counts deferred taxes, as well, but the consumer group does not. Still another is which profits are counted by the company and critics.
There are other technical variations shaping the calculations of effective tax rates, but these subtleties are often lost in the sound bites of the ongoing tax policy debate.
Depending on your perspective, oil industry tax breaks are either a vital part of reducing U.S. dependence on foreign oil or a giveaway to rich and powerful corporations. Politicians from both parties play regularly on these themes.
Either way, as lawmakers slowly move toward revamping the U.S. tax code for the first time in 25 years, the oil industry's tax breaks and tax rates are under growing scrutiny.
Democrats in the Senate on Monday will begin debate on repealing the tax breaks. There is little chance of repeal happening now, but the issue will carry into the campaign.
Republican presidential hopefuls Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum have blasted Obama for over-regulating the industry.
The next big action on taxes is expected at the end of the year, coinciding with the December 31 expiration of individual tax rates enacted under Republican President George W. Bush.
"That will be crazy and chaotic and anything can happen in that kind of scenario," said Jim Lucier, an analyst at institutional investor advisory Capital Alpha Partners.
GRAPHIC-Big Oil's tax rates http://link.reuters.com/hyk37s
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
BIG OIL EARNS BIG
Four of the five biggest oil companies ranked among the top 10 most profitable companies in 2011, according to Fortune, with collective profits of about $80 billion. BP Plc, beset by costs from the Gulf oil spill, had losses, bringing down the average.
The biggest oil companies' tax rates are relatively high when the foreign taxes that they pay are included. On a U.S.-only basis, their rates vary.
There are many ways to calculate how much a company actually pays in U.S. taxes. One roadblock to making independent tax rate estimates is that tax filings are confidential, and filings with securities regulators use a different accounting method.
"Most of what they are putting on their financial statements doesn't really tie to what they are putting into their tax returns," said George Yin, a former chief of staff at the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation.
When calculating the headline tax rates it displays to the public, the industry lumps together U.S. and foreign taxes. It includes taxes that are deferred and thus not paid yet. U.S. companies must pay taxes on profits earned abroad, but they can defer these taxes until they bring the cash into the country.
That is the method behind the American Petroleum Institute's 41 percent estimate for the industry as a whole.
Citizens for Tax Justice considers U.S. profits and U.S. taxes paid only. By that measure, Exxon Mobil paid 13 percent of its U.S. income in taxes after deductions and benefits in 2011, according to a Reuters calculation of securities filings.
Chevron paid about 19 percent by that method, near CTJ's average for all industries.
It is a far cry from the 35 percent top corporate tax rate.
Still, the three-year average for telecom companies is 8 percent; for information technology services companies, it is 2.5 percent, according to CTJ.
"A lot of the techniques that multinationals use to reduce taxes are simply not available to big energy companies," said Howard Gleckman, a fellow at the Tax Policy Center, a centrist think tank.
BIG OIL LACKS IP EDGE
One way big technology and drug companies cut U.S. taxes is by shifting intellectual property income to lower-tax countries. Oil and gas companies, in general, don't benefit from that.
Bob McIntyre, president of Citizens for Tax Justice, said the fact that oil companies still drill in high-tax countries like Saudi Arabia proves they will keep drilling if their U.S. taxes go up. "Their foreign tax rates are very high, and they don't leave Saudi Arabia," McIntyre said.
One major tax break for energy companies is a nearly century-old benefit letting them deduct "intangible drilling costs" (IDC) immediately rather than over time.
Most of the IDC is for the labor costs of drilling a well.
Legislation drafted by Democratic Senator Robert Menendez would limit this break, among others. Ending it completely would raise $14 billion over a decade, according to the White House.
Energy companies liken this benefit to the research and development tax break employed by companies like Apple Inc.
"All the labor (that) tech companies spend on research and development, everything that Apple spends designing the next new product, they recover," said Brian Johnson, a tax expert at the American Petroleum Institute. "Cost recovery is cost recovery."
Not exactly. Many tax experts across the political spectrum said the IDC is a clear exception made for oil. As a rule, expenses that produce income in the future are not immediately deductible.
LITTLE OIL
Most oil companies are not as big as Exxon or Chevron. Mid-sized, independent producers include Devon Energy Corp and Chesapeake Energy Corp. These companies get even more generous benefits than the giants.
Indeed, the Center for Tax Justice finds Devon recorded a 5.5 percent three-year average tax rate and Chesapeake had an 8.1 percent average over the period.
"What is absolutely critical is the profound distinction between little oil and big oil - the smaller companies receive pretty generous breaks," said economist Alan Viard of the conservative American Enterprise Institute.
For example, the so-called percentage depletion allowance lets these mid-sized companies take an annual 15 percent deduction for depletion of oil and gas resources in the ground, instead of deducting the decline in value over time.
Obama wants to repeal this benefit as well.
The biggest oil companies don't get this benefit. Viard called it an "indefensible loophole."
(Reporting by Kim Dixon; Additional reporting by Matt Daily in New York; Editing by Kevin Drawbaugh, Gary Hill)
========
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:symmetrical_triangle
Symmetrical Triangle (Continuation)
The symmetrical triangle, which can also be referred to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape. You could also think of it as a contracting wedge, wide at the beginning and narrowing over time.
While there are instances when symmetrical triangles mark important trend reversals, they more often mark a continuation of the current trend. Regardless of the nature of the pattern, continuation or reversal, the direction of the next major move can only be determined after a valid breakout. We will examine each part of the symmetrical triangle individually, and then provide an example with Conseco.
Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. The trend should be at least a few months old and the symmetrical triangle marks a consolidation period before continuing after the breakout.
Four (4) Points: At least 2 points are required to form a trend line and 2 trend lines are required to form a symmetrical triangle. Therefore, a minimum of 4 points are required to begin considering a formation as a symmetrical triangle. The second high (2) should be lower than the first (1) and the upper line should slope down. The second low (2) should be higher than the first (1) and the lower line should slope up. Ideally, the pattern will form with 6 points (3 on each side) before a breakout occurs.
Volume: As the symmetrical triangle extends and the trading range contracts, volume should start to diminish. This refers to the quiet before the storm, or the tightening consolidation before the breakout.
Duration: The symmetrical triangle can extend for a few weeks or many months. If the pattern is less than 3 weeks, it is usually considered a pennant. Typically, the time duration is about 3 months.
Breakout Time Frame: The ideal breakout point occurs 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the pattern's development or time-span. The time-span of the pattern can be measured from the apex (convergence of upper and lower lines) back to the beginning of the lower trend line (base). A break before the 1/2 way point might be premature and a break too close to the apex may be insignificant. After all, as the apex approaches, a breakout must occur sometime.
Breakout Direction: The future direction of the breakout can only be determined after the break has occurred. Sound obvious enough, but attempting to guess the direction of the breakout can be dangerous. Even though a continuation pattern is supposed to breakout in the direction of the long-term trend, this is not always the case.
Breakout Confirmation: For a break to be considered valid, it should be on a closing basis. Some traders apply a price (3% break) or time (sustained for 3 days) filter to confirm validity. The breakout should occur with an expansion in volume, especially on upside breakouts.
Return to Apex: After the breakout (up or down), the apex can turn into future support or resistance. The price sometimes returns to the apex or a support/resistance level around the breakout before resuming in the direction of the breakout.
Price Target: There are two methods to estimate the extent of the move after the breakout. First, the widest distance of the symmetrical triangle can be measured and applied to the breakout point. Second, a trend line can be drawn parallel to the pattern's trend line that slopes (up or down) in the direction of the break. The extension of this line will mark a potential breakout target.
Edwards and Magee suggest that roughly 75% of symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns and the rest mark reversals. The reversal patterns can be especially difficult to analyze and often have false breakouts. Even so, we should not anticipate the direction of the breakout, but rather wait for it to happen. Further analysis should be applied to the breakout by looking for gaps, accelerated price movements, and volume for confirmation. Confirmation is especially important for upside breakouts.
Prices sometimes return to the breakout point of apex on a reaction move before resuming in the direction of the breakout. This return can offer a second chance to participate with a better reward to risk ratio. Potential reward price targets found by measurement and parallel trend line extension are only meant to act as rough guidelines. Technical analysis is dynamic and ongoing assessment is required. In the first example above, SUNW may have fulfilled its target (42) in a few months, but the stock gave no sign of slowing down and advanced above 100 in the following months.
Conesco, Inc. (CNCEQ) Symmetrical Triangle example chart from StockCharts.com
Conseco (CNCEQ)[Cnceq] formed a rather large symmetrical triangle over a 5-month period before breaking out on the downside.
The stock declined from 50 in Mar-98 to 22 in Oct-98 before beginning to firm and consolidate. The low at 22 probably was an over-reaction, but the long-term trend was down and established for almost a year.
After the first 4 points formed, the lines of the symmetrical triangle were draw. The stock traded within the boundaries for another 2 months to form the last 2 points.
After the gap up from point 3 to point 4, volume slowed over the next few months. There was some increase in volume in late June, but the 60-day SMA remained in a downtrend as the pattern took shape.
The red square marks the ideal breakout time-span from 50% to 75% of the pattern. The breakout occurred a little over 2 weeks later, but proved valid nonetheless. While it is preferable to have an ideal pattern develop, it is also quite rare.
After points 5 and 6 formed, the price action moved to the lower boundary of the pattern. Even at this point, the direction of the breakout was still a guess and its was prudent to wait. The break occurred with an increase in volume and accelerated price decline. Chaikin Money Flow declined past -30% and volume exceeded the 60-day SMA for an extended period.
After the decline from 29 1/2 to 25 1/2, the stock rebounded, but failed to reach potential resistance from the apex. The weakness of the reaction rally foreshadowed the sharpness of the decline that followed.
The widest point on the pattern extended 10 1/2 points. With a break of support at 29 1/2, the measured decline was estimated to around 19. By drawing a trend line parallel to the upper boundary of the pattern, the extension estimates a decline to around 20.
===========
Tue 22:22
Objective TA
farmertim
25UP
Symmetrical Triangle appears to be forming.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patternsymmetrical_triangle
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/22133197/GULF%20KEYSTONE%20PETROLEUM%20LTD%20COM%20SHS%20USD0.01%20%27DI%2760min27march.gif
The break out is on low volume, it would be reassuring if the volume were to increase to confirm the direction.
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/22133197/GULF%20KEYSTONE%20PETROLEUM%20LTD%20COM%20SHS%20USD0.01%20%27DI%2760withvol.gif
The short term P&F targets are a little lower, in the region of the broken trend line- (resistance provided by the purple trend line becomes support).
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/22133197/GULF%20KEYSTONE%20PETROLEUM%20LTD%20COM%20SHS%20USD0.01%20%27DI%271minP%26F27.gif
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/22133197/GULF%20KEYSTONE%20PETROLEUM%20LTD%20COM%20SHS%20USD0.01%20%27DI%2760x227m.gif
The Daily P&F has given a target of 333, in the region of the triangle target. (The target is not activated as yet, requires a daily finish above 273)
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/22133197/GULF%20KEYSTONE%20PETROLEUM%20LTD%20COM%20SHS%20USD0.01%20%27DI%27DailyP%26F27.gif
In my opinion, possible bit of weakness first thing before the price starts moving again. As long as the red trend line, 237 today, stays intact it would appear to be bullish in the medium term.
Best wishes to one and all
FTim
======
Author on greenhill View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted Tuesday 20:57
Subject Sinopec's eyes asset injection
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 3 times.
Message
I guess China's Sinopec, which Kodd K, JG, O and a number of advicers met in China, is Sinopec Corp. The chairman of the Sinopec Corp is Fu Chengyu. Sinopec Corp's parent company is Sinopec Group.
From http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/26/sinopec-idUSL3E8EN1XS20120326
I quote below:
"Sinopec Group, the parent, has launched at least 74 acquisition deals worth $48.1 billion since 2005, putting it ahead of all oil and gas majors over that period, Thomson Reuters data show."
"Sinopec Corp (son of Sinopec Group) bought deepwater oil assets in Angola in 2010 for $2.46 billion from its parent, marking its first acquisition of overseas upstream assets."
"Sinopec Corp's proven oil and gas reserve stood at 3.966 billion barrels of oil equivalents at the end of 2011, little changed from a year earlier, highlighting the need for its parent to inject assets into the listed company, analysts said."
Because Sinopec Corp is Asia's largest refiner and China government keeps prices artificially low for gasoline and other products sold to consumers, they had heavy loss in fourth-quarter net profit. The market think:" 'The restructuring of Sinopec Corp via upstream asset injection from its parent company, Sinopec Group, is likely to see a gradual improvement in returns and potentially significant value upside in the long term,' Barclays Capital analysts Scott Darling and Clement Chen said in an overnight research note."
"An increased resource base for Sinopec Corp is likely to improve or sustain production growth in the long term," the report said from http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/25/sinopec-earnings-idUSL3E8EN1XS20120325
In the view of Barclays,the assets injection is from its parent company (Bankers don't know oil business). But this article really tells us that Sinopec Corp is seeking the assets injection despetely. It's obviously/likely Sinopec Corp would likely bit for assets from company like GKP with huge proven OIP.
I also read CJ's post in the past/today about the Sinopec Corp's refine business loss and their asset acquisitions.
=====
Author scaramouche View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted Sunday 10:11
Subject Twelve Angry Men....
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 123 times.
Message
For those that have not seen it, Twelve Angry Men was a great film from 1957, full of twists and turns and suspense. It was set in a jury room in New York and involved a boy from ‘the wrong side of town’ who was accused of a murder and, about whom, the initial reaction from almost everyone on the jury was that he was guilty as charged.
It took one man, Henry Fonda’s character, with enough guts to challenge the initial views and make people focus on the facts rather than the general opinion of the defendant, for the correct verdict to be returned and the case to be dropped.
I rather wonder whether what we have been seeing lately is our very own GKP version of ‘Twelve Angry Men’.
Let me explain....
Just like many others on this board I have met or exchanged emails with a number of people here. It would be strange if I hadn’t, given that GKP has occupied a very high proportion of my time, my life and my investment for the last two and a half years. Like so many people on here too, I am very keen that the story should end well, hopefully quite soon, with all the long-suffering PIs well rewarded.
At the last count, I had met about 10 of the people on this board, and been in separate communications with quite a few others. And one of the people I had met was investor48.
I certainly DO NOT share SOME of Investor48’s views. My valuation differs (I am more optimistic!). My perception of how much oil might be produced by whoever takes over the operation of Shaikan in the term of the licence is significantly different (I believe it is far higher). My impression of how close GKP is to being taken over is different (I still think we have a few months left). But I certainly share his long-term bullish nature about GKP.
That is entirely healthy IMHO as it makes this discussion board what it is, a place for generally like-minded individuals, who are free to air their opinions... allowing other posters and silent lurkers(A lurker is one who sits in an internet chat room, message base or newsgroup, but does not participate.) to consider all sides of an argument.
Indeed, you only have to read my recent posts to recognise that my views are entirely my own and that, although there is a great deal of common ground here between myself and some of the higher profile posters, we do NOT always see everything the same way. But that does not stop me building up a degree of respect for those people and considering very carefully where they might be coming from.
Turning to the latest episode of what I can only call extreme unpleasantness on this board (and on KOEP), I can only say that it disappoints me greatly that so many people seem to have ignored my earlier advice and spent most of their time focusing on the poster and NOT the argument - such that it seems very easy for someone be rounded upon by a savage pack of wolves just for choosing to air a different view.
Incidentally, most people would I think agree that I RESEARCH my posts very thoroughly and like to try to corroborate my comments with more than one source if possible. I therefore read with some interest that Investor48 was allegedly ‘a Malaysian Fund Manager’ and that he was surrounded by sycophants. So I did a fair bit of research.
And what did I find? That Investor48 shares just TWO FORENAMES with a Malaysian Fund manager who has the last name of CHOON as referred to in one of the posts that has seemingly backed up recent allegations. But this particular fund manager and Investor48 are in FACT completely different people – with no similarity whatsoever!
And how do I know that for sure?
Well, as I stated earlier, along with many others here I have met Investor48 and know what he looks like. I also have a pretty good inkling as to what he does and how he thinks (although I certainly do not know in great detail), but these are things which the so-called recent ‘research’ I have seen here fails completely to do IMO. At least i have never seen anything to justify what appear to be concerted attacks.
I have to admit that I was therefore very surprised that certain other supposedly very competent researchers ticked up a post that contained what was fundamentally incorrect in its initial argument - on which presumably some of the other allegations were based. I can only assume that people trusted the quality of that research on the basis of past experience of their posting history. They were misguided, I think.
Everyone can make mistakes. I have made some myself but then done my best swiftly to correct them. So, I think it is about time that those who have so savagely attacked Investor48 and others in recent times publicly acknowledge that perhaps they have actually got some of their facts wrong, got the wrong man, and jumped to entirely the wrong conclusions.
I am no Henry Fonda, but I am pretty sure that Investor48 has committed no crime ... although as far as this board goes sometimes it does appear that he is seen by some as coming from ‘the wrong side of the tracks’.
I certainly hope that Investor48 will continue to post here and on KOEP, and I will continue to agree or disagree with his views in an amicable manner, just as I have always done. But the moment that I see people on here unwisely acting as Judge, Jury and Executioner, I will also express my opinion, which is that cases can surely only be founded on Facts not simple Conspiracy theories!
Oh, and just out of interest, I noticed that there are 205 people in America who share the first two names as Investor48. So, goodness knows how many people there are in the Far East who have a similar name to him. It really IS very important not to make allegations, which might not be well-founded or substantiated – just think about Excalibur and the now only 10 days they have to raise £9.5 million in costs!
And that reminds me - can we now continue talking about GKP and the important upcoming news, or at least concentrate on making the best of this lovely sunny weekend. Personally, I have had quite enough of reading about people’s views on some members of this board who are very unlikely to affect my investment here one way or the other. Life is far too short.
GLA, scaramouche
=======
Sun 14:16
Re: Investor48
GKP.L
20UP
Hi Oilman,
This will be my last post and i make this loud and clear,that because we have never met,i must confessed,that was probably the issues that we have.This has probably been my fault!!
I have no issues with you and we are here to make the best of our investments.I will meet up with you when the TO happens,when i do not know,as i have misfired many times on predicting and only God probably knows.
I do not have issues with you per say as you have never slandered me on this board!But those that have,gets away as heroes helping the man in the street!
It is not me against you,you are me are invested in GKP and we want the best for GKP.Yes,i do have disagreements with many,but it must be constructive and not slandering someone and this is unacceptable!!
I am tired and already my energy sapped answering to queries on the KOEP Board and soon i will be sick and will not be able to meet you!!
I wish you good health and prosperity.Thank you and will not be responding to anyone here
===
Author MikeyAdmin View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 16:39
Subject Daily Volumes
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 29 times.
Message
SP level
Auction
265.75p.................3,994
Auction between 280.5 and 249
264........................16,052
264.75...................16,052
267.........................32,274
268........................35,923
266......................35,923
266........................37,766
265......................33,766
265.....................33,591
265.....................39,991
264.5....................43,759
265......................61,359 and close
It will be interesting to see if any large trades get reported
LSE, 3,696,440
AT's 1,814,598
Trades 1,541
UT, 61,359
SP, 265p,............ down 0.25p
The Auction started at 270p, and went down 269.5p then opened a UT of 7,286 @ 267p with very little in the way of participation
The SP then hit the days low so far at 261p and hung around 262.75p on low volumes of 146,047 by 8.07am while several O trade buys went through
With the Bid Volumes weights low at 1,461,633 and the Ask at 1,708,709 the day is naturally off to a bad start with a tender squeeze going on
8.10am, SP 263p. Volumes 166,758.…..AT’s 55,118 = 33.05% very low AT volumes
8.13am, the book
1,516,628-----1,710,694
109---100
Very low AT and O trade Volumes though buys are coming in slowly and the Ask volumes are stable with the Bid Volumes tentatively building.
8.15am, SP 264p, 262.25p,
The spread is being moved up and down which is not relevant to the trades coming through
8.20am, SP 262.5p.
9.10am, SP 267p, Volumes 596,809.………..AT’s 236,418 = 39.61% and rising
An interesting development was noticed by LiverRules, in so much that we have a new Market Maker called SING, so a list of the current MM’s
SING = Singer Capital Markets Ltd
WINS = Winterflood Securities Ltd
CANA = Canacord Genuity Ltd
SCAP = Shore Capital Ltd
FOXY = Fox Davies Capital Ltd
INV = Investec Bank Plc
LIBC = Liberum Capital Ltd
RENA = Renaisance Securities
PEEL = Peel Hunt
MLSB = Merrill Lynch
BMCM = BMO Capital Markets Ltd
The Normal Market Size (NMS) has also been changed from 15,000 down to 10,000, which in my opinion represents that the MM’s are struggling getting shares or its been lowered to help protect against outside influences.
9.15am, SP 268.4p rising with the Bid Volumes gaining strength from the earlier 1,461,633 to 1,688,035.
SING the new MM went straight to the top of the Bid and Ask taking immediate control, no doubt to deal for its own clients.
DYOR Please.
http://www.singercm.com/
9.35am, SP 266.4p, Volumes 926,250.………AT’s 480,094 = 51.83% and still rising
10.15am, SP 267.25p, Volumes 1,210,490.….AT’s 636,313 = 52.56% and still rising as more CFD positions are taken or DMA buying activity increases.
(DMA can be used to buy actual shares or by CFD users)
11.10am, SP 266.9p, Volumes 1.499,444.……..AT’s 762,792 = 50.87% has fallen a bit.
Now approaching the normal time when we may get a drop, so lets see what happens from here
11.30am, SP 267.75p, and the volumes stay low with the AT volumes now above 50% at 51.13%
The Bid Volumes have now risen to 1,772,449--135 and the Ask Volumes are now at 1,773,207--112, so each rise in the Bid Volumes & Depths is being met by a higher Ask Volumes & Depths, hence the stalemate and under almost perfect control, while the Wholesale Bid side keeps quietly receiving Sells in a tight range.
11.40am, SP 267.2p, Volumes 1,547,501.….AT’s 788,437 = 50.94%.
Quite a few trades going through in the 100’s, so is our Mr Hundred back.
12.15pm, SP 270p, Volumes 1,721,428.…….AT’s 867,392 = 50.38% remaining stable & mainly caused by SING’s quiet Accumulation that going on IMO
Bid Volumes have swung to the positive at 1,783,671 against 1,778,082, and we have the wee rise.
From researching SING, I see that they operate for independent HNWI’s though buying and selling for them, so I assume they are here to access the Book to buy for HNW Clients from the inside rather than the outside, being easier to control the price and get the best prices.
The joys (groans) of following this fascinating story far out weight the trials it is putting me through,.
1.55pm, SP 271p, Volumes 2,141,147.…….AT’s 1,105,039 = 51.60% so rising as AT buying starts on the Ask.
Interestingly SING are still at the top of the Bid and Ask, so is it them that have raised the SP with buying from the Bid.
I feel an email is due for Aus, to see what’s been happening this morning and who has been buying.
2.45pm, SP 270.25p, Volumes 2,417,638.…..AT’s 1,199,812 = 49.62%
Bubbling along nicely
3.05pm. SP 267.75, Volumes 2,777,664.……AT’s 1,373,458 = 49.44%.
So the SP is pushed down to force sellers as not enough sells being tempted with a rise.
At a pure guess, whoever is accumulating is not happy with the speed, so they took it down from the 270’s to shake a few out, so we may perhaps get a bigger shakedown soon, so if so, hold tight.
SING still at 262 on the bid and 276 on the Ask as acting AX
3.15pm, SP 268.5p, and Mr Hundred has picked up a few more sells from the bid
3.50pm, SP 266.4p as another mini shake come in with the Ask side volumes rising to over 1,8m
Bid at 1,791,088---141and the Ask at 1,816,064---119
Being well shaken now down to 265.5p and AT sells coming in which are eagerly taken by SING on the Wholesale Bid side.
3.55pm, SP 265.9p, Volumes 3,085,529.……..AT’s 1,520,447 = 49.27% not rising with the shake out, so it may get heavier.
4.05pm, SP 266p, 266.6p, 266.75p, 266.9p, back up again, 266.5p, 266.1p, as more AT sells go through, 266.5p
4.10pm, SP 266.5p, Volumes 3,320,789...........AT's 1,595,038 = 48.03% still not rising, as some traders hold their nerves more than other
4.15pm, SP 265.6p almost back to last nights price
SING still hasn't moved from his 264 ----276 positions as he has Iceberg Orders in fron of him, to which sells are now going to. That was close, nearly hit him at 264p but he did not move but stayed absorbing everything thrown at him
4.20pm, SP 265.4p, as more pressure is applied with the Ask rising to 1,862,268
4.22pm, SP 265.4p just 0.1p above last nights close, so most AT Buyers from today will have sold to SING and other Wholesale buyers by now.
4.25pm, SP 265.25p and level, Volumes 3,438,605.....AT's 1,692,759 = 49.22% so a slight rise as buys come to the Ask, and still SING held is ground even with the himself on the touchline. Now there is two Orders in front of him.
4.28pm, SP 264.9p, and negative, 265p,
Lets see what the Auction brings, as its been an interesting day
With the arrival of SING to the GKP Book, it has brought another question, who are they buying for, and how many do they want.
They have obviously been buying from CFD Traders and pushed the price up to tempt them to sell and take profit, then pushed the SP down when not enough got tempted to force them to sell.
With less shares floating around any rise could be dramatic, or simply get suppressed buy continual buying at low prices, but for that it depends on the News we get and many other factors.
GLA. DYORamping
Mikey
========
13:06
Re: Why I think the board got bad...
he-who-dares
18UP
mrgreystone,
I agree - I don't think the board is any different now than when I arrived in the 60-130p rise and retrace to 70-80's...
There were derampers afoot there, there was impatience from long-termers, and there were new guys who were sitting on losses who had piled in as it sped towards 130p and retraced.
All the same, just a new trading cycle at the moment.....back then rampers thought it would be taken out at anytime, or the O&G Law would be passed at anytime.....Tas and the gang wound everyone up the wrong way and there were uber bulls.
Nothing has changed in the slightest...those that are leaving saying the board has gone to pot is because they have investor fatigue and they are no longer learning new stuff about the company, and external factors....they are getting bored...the sprint has turned into a marathon and the buzz has turned into an exercise in patience and more patience.
Nothings changed....except hopefully we are a little closer to take over, and the risk is more underpinned by the emergence of an uprising in confidence in Kurdistan and a global push for acreage on the last great onshore frontier.
Oh, and i've personally become fatigued....I pretend to be patient, but in reality I am really impatient but no foolish enough to sell and miss an opportunity of a lifetime. I think many are like this, and thus the reason that I think a good offer will always be accepted by shareholders....
Cheers,
HWD
======
12:47
Re: Why I think the board got bad...
mrgreystone
18UP
As a long term holder, I can honestly say, I have seen the best and worst of this BB. I don't think it's any different now. I really don't know why so many are still crying foul. We have seen new highs, been advised of bod interests in joining FTSE soon, we have cash for 2012/2013, we are producing and receiving an income, we have tenders out for a gazillion bopd pipeline, and all this whilst every NOC & Major are moving into the neighbourhood. Why are people questioning the role of this BB if they have done there due diligence?
Derampers have always been here, and 2 years ago would have had a much easier task of convincing those whom had not done there DD to sell. I also note that quite a few posts mention long term holders in past tense, I am not sure why this is, as I believe most are still on board awaiting some thing to break.
Let's not return to the KRG blackout theory days and continue blaming this BB for the guilty few, it's been a great 3 years on this BB and supported by key posters whom have shared their professions with us. We all know things are moving in the background. We also know that the KRG need the FDP more than GKP to at least even contemplate their independence option.
We have interesting days, months ahead. I will along with most, await patiently for great news and related posts from those I hold in the highest regards.
Good luck all.
mrg
=
11:20
Re: The Price they Pay...(BMU)
golfguy31
26UP
Assuming 25bn OIP @ 30%RF yields:
· £14/share with the default DRRF value of 0.6185
· £23/share if no Discount Factor is applied (DRRF=1.0)
broadford bay wasn't that far out on the basis that FE buyers tend not to use a discounting factor in their valuations.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Where did 25bn OIP come from?
What's the companies P90 figure? It's 1/3 of that isn't it?
Why are you applying a 200% premium to P90?
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TK / JG stated that they anticipate 100% upside from current numbers. BBBS (a man who hasn't been wrong in 3 yrs) expects 25bn+
Current 8bn P90 >> If the above is proved correct the there is a realistic chance of 15bn P90
I wasn't attempting to place a valuation on current numbers >> more to do with final numbers within the next several weeks.....
Why only take into account 1P??....you are completely ignoring 2P?
Anyway....to keep you happy, I'll amend the figs based on assumption of 1P (using 35%RF)
15 x 35% x 54.5% = 2.85bn P1 (Shaikan asset only)
@ $4.80pb = 960p
@ $7.80pb = 1560p
P90 / 1P are estimations only - but entirely possible based on BoD / BBBS comments.
Currently trading under fair value based on 8bn P90 using fully discounted method & 50% political risk.
Most know the price but forget the value!
===========
Re: Could it be CHEVRON !!!!!
smokehead
12UP
Can't help wishing we had eyes at that CERA week conference. There was an excellent post joining the dots by Dalesman around 15/2/12.
Everyone was there, Hawrami gave a rouser of a speech. Sinopec Chevron Exxon and even the perella guru were not only in attendance but in the thick of it.
There must surely have been some off conference JV discussions. My opinion, and I rate that as valueless or close, is that some kind of Sino American arrangement is in the process of being formalised.
The obvious bearing in mind the recent GKP visit to China would be Exxon/Sinopec and they are just haggling over who gets which part of the pie, and how cheaply they can get it.
A posh stitch up north of ten quid?
I can live with that, though of course I'd love say a total chevron KNOC counter bid.
One way or another I think we'll get our entertainment and x times money back 'guarantee' on this one.
Pitts kicked it pretty straight when he said this IS one for widows and orphans, all IMO of course
===
Sat 19:42
Re: Plan now for t/o in range of 30-50 q...
BHP12
"In its short existence, Perella Weinberg Partners has worked on some monumental deals, including Thomson Corporation's $18.3 acquisition of Reuters Group, Wachovia's $15.1 billion merger with Wells Fargo, Continental's $35 billion sale to Schaeffler, BlackRock's $13.5 billion acquisition of Barclays Global Investors, NYSE Euronext’s $11.3 billion merger-of-equals with Deutsche Borse, and Hewlett-Packard’s $11.7 billion acquisition of Autonomy Corporation. "
http://www.vault.com/wps/portal/usa/companies/company-profile/Perella-Weinberg-Partners?
========
Sat 17:53
Re: oil deals plan to expand refineries
blacksash
7UP
Interesting that our 6000bopd (cash flow) is completely discounted by all brokers......Also the agreement with Turkey is for refined products, hence the recent boost to refineries in Kurdistan, it looks like every time Baghdad puts up a road block the KRG find a way around it.
===========================================================================
"Do we get full credit on our findings Kurdish? not. But the reality on the ground generates cash flow, and there is no problem." products to fuel domestic demand Atalpa only in Kurdistan, but can also be exported. Officials confirmed the Turks, that under the agreement last November, it could be the KRG to export refined products, but not crude oil by tanker truck to Turkey. The Minister of Natural Resources Government of the province Ashti Hawrami, had announced last November that the region looking to build new refineries capable of producing 300,000 barrels per day of heavy crude processing. Magda Optimizer
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