Russia out to maintain clout, improve image on Syria

21 Mar 2012 16:51

Source: reuters // Reuters

* Russia hedges its bets on Syrian leader Assad's fate

* Moscow hopes to hold influence in diplomacy and Syrian transition

* For Putin, ensuring Russia's voice is heard and curbing Western clout are crucial

By Steve Gutterman

MOSCOW, March 21 (Reuters) - One part public relations, one part cold calculation: Russia's sharper tone toward Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is calculated to improve Moscow's image after months shielding him from censure and ensure the Kremlin a strong diplomatic role regardless of whether he stays in power.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov took aim at Assad in an interview broadcast on Tuesday, saying Syria's leadership had ignored Russia's warnings and made "very many mistakes" that helped drag the country to the brink of civil war.

The tough tone is part of a growing Russian effort to distance itself from Assad, whose government is blamed by many Western and Arab countries for violence the United Nations says has killed more than 8,000 civilians since a crackdown on pro-democracy protests began in March 2011.

On Wednesday, Russia supported a U.N. Security Council statement backing U.N.-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan's mission to end the violence, in a show of unity with the United States and Europe.

Moscow and Beijing had previously vetoed two Western-backed resolutions supported by Arab states.

"Clearly Russia doesn't want to be seen as Assad's last line of defence," said Dmitry Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Centre think tank.

Russia has not budged on its most adamant demand: that Assad must not be pushed out by foreign powers using the Security Council to promote "regime change", as President-elect Vladimir Putin and other top officials say happened last year in Libya.

But the criticism, and support for the statement, are signs that Russia is hedging its bets about Assad's fate and wants as strong a hand as possible in shaping Syria's future in the event that he is forced out.

Putin may have calculated that a strong role in a peace settlement, and a chance for some sway in a post-Assad Syria, is worth more than close ties with a leader who could be doomed.

"Russia will not be focused on keeping Assad in power for the sake of keeping Assad in power," said Trenin.

HIGH STAKES

The U.N. statement is not binding, and Moscow bought time for Assad by negotiating the removal of a specific one-week deadline for the government to comply with the council's demands or face potential "further steps", which Russia could block.

It also leaves plenty of room for Syria's government and the Kremlin to blame Assad's opponents for continued violence, and includes no direct call for Assad to step aside to make way for a political dialogue - a condition Russia said was unacceptable.

By cementing Annan's central role in peace efforts, Russia may hope to keep the issue close to the United Nations, where it has veto power in the Security Council - and stem any efforts by Western and Gulf Arab nations to seize the initiative.

If Assad does go, Russia would face a huge challenge in winning over his opponents, angered by Russia's refusal to push for his ouster and by its vetoes of two resolutions condemning his government for the bloodshed.

The stakes are high. Syria has bought billions of dollars worth of Russian arms and hosts a supply and maintenance facility on the Mediterranean coast that is Russia's only military base outside the former Soviet Union.

The Kremlin may hope to steer Syria toward a transition with political change superficial enough to strengthen Moscow's hope of maintaining strong ties with Syria, its firmest foothold in the Middle East.

The intensity of the conflict in Syria means the time when that was possible may have passed, said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs.

But he said that Russia had used its firm stance in recent months "to tell the West and Arab countries very clearly and decisively that ... Russia's position must be heeded."

PUTIN FACTOR

That was crucial for Putin, who is now prime minister and returns to the Kremlin for a six-year presidential term in May.

Facing protests at home, he made accusations of U.S. and NATO meddling abroad a theme of his campaign, and had sharply criticised the March 2011 Security Council resolution that authorised NATO military intervention in Libya.

Russia let that resolution pass by abstaining. He accused NATO nations of overstepping their mandate and using the green light from the Security Council to back rebels who drove Gaddafi from power.

While Lavrov's language was strong, Russia's insistence that it is not backing Assad is nothing new. Russia has repeatedly said its stance has been driven by the desire to uphold international law, protect a sovereign state from outside interference and avert civil war, not by self-interest.

Putin rarely spoke of the Syrian conflict until recent weeks, and when he did it was to say that Assad was no ally and Russia had no special relationship with Syria.

In the radio interview, Lavrov displayed cool indifference to the man he met last month on a visit to Damascus.

Asked whether it would be better for Assad to resign and leave Syria for Moscow or Belarus than to end up hiding like Gaddafi, he said that "nobody is inviting him to Moscow" and that it was "up to Assad" and the Syrian people to decide his political future.

(Additional reporting by Jennifer Rankin)

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Syrian opposition seek to heal rift at Turkey meeting

21 Mar 2012 15:48

Source: reuters // Reuters

* Turkey pushes for meeting to overcome opposition divides

* Failure to agree on attendees underscores problem

By Khaled Yacoub Oweis

AMMAN, March 21 (Reuters) - Opponents of President Bashar al-Assad will try to overcome crippling feuds and plot a more coherent strategy at a meeting sought by Turkey early next week, opposition sources said on Wednesday.

However, the groups' failure to on agree who should attend the Istanbul meeting has increased doubts about their ability to overcome the deep divisions frustrating foreign powers seeking a reliable partner to unite the anti-Assad movement.

The meeting is provisionally set for Monday and will come just ahead of an April 1 Istanbul conference of the "Friends of Syria" - a loose alliance of more than 50 states looking to oust Assad after a bloody 12-month revolt against his rule.

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, an increasingly vocal critic of Assad, has said he has high hopes of the April 1 conference and has suggested that Turkey might consider setting up buffer zones inside Syria to protect an influx of refugees.

"Turkey has proposed safe areas to protect civilians, but is frustrated by the opposition and is pressuring them to hold this conference," said an official in the Syrian National Council (SNC) - a fractious umbrella group made up mainly of exiles.

"The opposition has to show Erdogan and the rest of the world that it is a responsible political player," he added.

The SNC draws together personalities from across the political spectrum, but prominent liberals and independent Islamists have grown wary of the rising influence of the Muslim Brotherhood within the 270-member organisation, sources said.

SCHISM

Five prominent members of the SNC quit this month, saying they had given up hope of making the movement a more effective player. They have formed the rival Syrian Patriotic Group (SPG).

Their main complaint was that the SNC was not doing enough to help the armed resistance against Assad, with the rebels on the backfoot in the face of a fierce army backlash.

Some critics have accused the SNC of being out of touch with ordinary Syrians who are bearing the brunt of an uprising that has killed at least 8,000, according to U.N. figures.

Walid al-Bunni, a key SPG member, said he would not attend Monday's meeting unless SNC President Burhan Ghalioun gave other opposition leaders leeway in choosing who should be invited.

For example, Catherine al-Talli, a human rights lawyer and a member of the SPG group, said she has not been invited.

But veteran opposition figure Najati Tayyara, one of Syria's most respected human rights campaigners, said he would attend.

"The council is still a big name in this revolution and uniting the opposition is a popular national wish. I have asked that the conference be an open one and include the largest number of delegates from inside Syria," he said.

"The invitations so far have been oral. Discussions are still going on about the agenda and we should know more in the next two days," said Tayyara, who fled Syria for Jordan last month after authorities released him from jail.

The official from the SNC, which is trying to coordinate the gathering, said all schools of thought would be admitted.

"The conference will exclude no one," he said, declining to be named because he was not authorised to speak.

"It will not resolve the difference within the opposition, but it will come out with a vision for a post-Bashar era and assure the revolution inside the country that there are Syrians working for them", he added. (Editing by Crispian Balmer and Jon Boyle)
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EU slaps sanctions on Assad's family; mortars hit Homs
Fri, Mar 23 13:15 PM EDT
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By Crispian Balmer and Dominic Evans

BEIRUT (Reuters) - The European Union slapped sanctions on President Bashar al-Assad's powerful mother and wife on Friday, targeting his inner circle in an effort to force Syria to end its repression of a year-long uprising.

The EU's latest round of sanctions hit 10 other prominent personalities, including Assad's sister and sister-in-law, banning them from visiting the 27-nation bloc, freezing their assets and stopping them from shopping with European firms.

"With this new listing we are striking at the heart of the Assad clan, sending out a loud and clear message to Mr. Assad: he should step down," said Dutch Foreign Minister Uri Rosenthal after fellow ministers backed the move at a meeting in Brussels.

The decision came on a day of renewed violence across Syria, with the army raining mortar rounds into the rebellious city of Homs, killing up to 11 civilians, opposition supporters said.

Live television feeds from around Syria showed a slew of anti-Assad rallies, including in the Damascus district of Barzeh, in the northwestern city of Hama, in Qamishli in the Kurdish east, and in the southern province of Deraa.

"Damascus here we come," read several placards held up by the relatively small crowds. Activists said eight people were wounded after demonstrations near five Damascus mosques were broken up by security forces.

On the diplomatic front, the U.N.-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan, who is leading international efforts to stop the relentless mayhem, planned to travel to Moscow and Beijing this weekend for talks on the crisis, his spokesman said.

Russia and China have resisted Western and Arab demands that Assad stand down and have vetoed two U.N. resolutions highly critical of Damascus. However, they supported a Security Council statement this week backing Annan's peace initiative, in a move seen as a sign they were toughening their stance on Syria.

Nevertheless, both Russia and China voted against a call by the U.N. Human Rights Council on Friday to extend a probe into abuses by Syrian forces, arguing it was too one-sided.

The motion passed regardless, with 41 of the forum's 47 members voting in favor of the text, which said the perpetrators of the brutality had to be brought to justice.

GLAMOUR AND POWER

More than 8,000 people have died in the rebellion, according to U.N. figures, but Western powers have ruled out military intervention in such a sensitive part of the world, putting the emphasis instead on economic sanctions and diplomacy.

The new EU sanctions build on 12 previous rounds of sanctions aimed at isolating Assad, including an arms embargo and a ban on importing Syrian oil to the European Union.

At first sight they appear largely symbolic, but show the West is ready to broaden its net in its effort to isolate Assad.

A former investment banker, Assad's wife Asma cultivated the image of a glamorous yet serious-minded woman with Western values who was meant to humanize the isolated Assad family

But that image has crumbled over the past year, and she has stood resolutely by her husband's side, describing herself as "the real dictator" in an email published by Britain's Guardian newspaper last week.

Assad's mother, Anisa Makhlouf, has a lower profile than the Asma but opposition figures say she wields greater influence within the dynasty which has ruled Syria for four decades.

Asma's ancestral home is Homs, now a symbol of the revolt which has been subjected to particularly fierce army attack. Video from the city on Friday showed plumes of smoke rising from residential areas after being hit by apparent mortar fire.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which is based in Britain and has a network of contacts in Syria, said the army clashed with defectors in the north-eastern town of Azaz, on the border with Turkey. Three soldiers and one defector were killed as the army fired heavy machineguns and mortar rounds, it said.

It said three had died in clashes in Deraa, close to Jordan.

Other activists working for the Local Coordination Committees of Syria reported 32 deaths on Friday around the country. They also said rebels had captured 17 members of the security forces in the northwestern Idlib province.

It is impossible to verify reports from Syria because authorities have denied access to independent journalists.

Syria has said 3,000 members of the security forces have died in the uprising, which Damascus blames on terrorist gangs and foreign interference.

The violence has displaced 230,000 people and aid groups have pressed Syria to allow humanitarian access to the worst affected areas.

Relief teams from the International Committee of the Red Cross and Syrian Red Crescent have delivered aid to 9,000 people in the Syrian provinces of Homs and Idlib in recent days, the ICRC said on Friday.

ANNAN REVIEWING SITUATION

Annan has drawn up a six-point plan to end the unrest, including a demand for a ceasefire, political dialogue and full access for aid agencies. It also says the army should stop using heavy weapons in populated areas and pull troops back.

He sent five experts to Damascus earlier this week to discuss the deployment of international monitors -- something Assad has resisted. The team has now left Syria and there was no immediate word if they had made any progress.

"Mr. Annan and his team are currently studying the Syrian responses carefully, and negotiations with Damascus continue," his spokesman Ahmad Fawzi said in a statement from Geneva.

Asked whether Annan would be returning to Damascus for talks with Assad, Fawzi told a news briefing: "He will at some point decide to go back, but this is not the time yet."

Instead he will head to Russia and China, no doubt hoping to persuade them to bring their influence to bear on Syria.

Unlike the Arab League and Western countries, Annan has not explicitly called for Assad to step down, talking only about the need for dialogue and political transition.

Russia has historically close ties to Syria, which is home to its only naval base outside the former Soviet Union. But analysts believe Moscow is starting to hedge its bets about Assad's fate and is positioning itself for his possible fall.

(Additional reporting by Justyna Pawlak; in Brussels and Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva; writing by Crispian Balmer; Editing by Jon Boyle)

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Timeline: Crackdown on protests in Syria
Fri, Mar 23 12:15 PM EDT

(Reuters) - Following is a timeline of events in Syria since protests began.

March 15, 2011 - About 40 people join a Syrian protest chanting political slogans in a brief first challenge to the Baath Party, in Hameediyeh market in Old Damascus before dispersing into side streets.

April 19 - Government passes bill lifting 48 years of emergency rule.

April 22 - Security forces and gunmen loyal to President Bashar al-Assad kill at least 100 protesters, rights group says.

July 31 - Syrian tanks storm Hama after a month-long siege.

September 2 - EU imposes ban on purchases of Syrian oil.

November 12 - Arab League suspends Syria.

November 27 - Arab states vote to impose economic sanctions.

November 30 - Turkey says it has suspended all financial credit dealings with Syria and frozen Syrian government assets.

December 7 - Assad denies ordering his troops to kill peaceful demonstrators, telling U.S. television channel ABC that only a "crazy" leader kills his own people.

December 19 - Syria signs Arab League peace plan, agrees to let monitors into the country.

January 22, 2012 - Arab League urges Assad to step down and hand over power to a deputy, a call Syria rejects a day later.

January 24 - The six-member Gulf Cooperation Council says it is withdrawing its 55 monitors from the 165-strong monitoring mission. Syria agrees to extend mission for a month. Four days later the Arab League suspends the monitoring mission.

February 4 - Russia and China veto resolution in U.N. Security Council, backed by Arab League, calling for Assad to step down.

February 16 - The U.N. General Assembly approves a resolution endorsing the Arab League plan calling for Assad to step aside.

February 22 - More than 80 people are killed in Homs including two foreign journalists. Hundreds of people have now been killed in daily bombardments of the city by Assad's besieging forces.

February 23 - Former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan is appointed U.N.-Arab League envoy to Syria.

February 24 - Foreign ministers from more than 50 countries meet in Tunis for the inaugural "Friends of Syria" meeting. Russia and China, allies of Syria, decide not to attend.

Feb 28 - Assad decrees that a new constitution is in force after officials say nearly 90 percent of voters endorsed it in a February 26 referendum. Opponents and the West dismiss the reforms and the referendum as a sham.

March 1 - Syrian rebels pull out of the besieged Baba Amr district of Homs after more than three weeks of bombardment.

March 4 - China warns other powers not to use humanitarian aid for Syria to "interfere" in Syria, while urging unity in the Security Council after a split with Western powers.

March 6 - The five permanent Security Council members and Morocco meet to discuss a U.S.-drafted resolution urging an end to the crackdown. Some Western envoys say the text is too weak.

March 9 - The United Nations estimates at least 30,000 refugees have fled the fighting in Syria since the start of the conflict.

March 11 - Kofi Annan ends talks with Assad and leaves Syria with little sign of progress. Assad tells Annan that opposition "terrorists" are blocking any political solution.

March 12 - The United States and its European allies clash with Russia at a Security Council meeting over how to end escalating violence.

March 13 - Assad sets parliamentary elections under his country's new constitution for May 7.

-- Lavrov says Syrian forces will not stop fighting or withdraw from positions unless rebel forces mirror their move.

-- Three prominent figures resign from the opposition SNC saying they have given up on trying to make the group a more effective player in the revolt against Assad.

-- The United Nations says more than 8,000 people have been killed in Syria.

March 14 - Kofi Annan says he has received a reply from Damascus to his peace proposals but he needs clarifications.

March 15 - Activists say they are sickened by emails which appear to show Assad and his wife shopping for luxury items while the country descends into bloodshed, a day after Britain's Guardian newspaper said it obtained some 3,000 emails from Assad and his wife, Asma.

March 17 - Two car bombs in Damascus kill 27 people and wound at least 100. The next day a car bomb strikes Syria's second city Aleppo.

March 21 - Russia and China join the rest of the U.N. Security Council in throwing its weight behind Annan to end the conflict, threatening Syria with unspecified "further steps" if it failed to comply with Annan's peace plan.

-- The Opposition say they will try to overcome crippling feuds in a meeting provisionally set for March 26 and ahead of a an April 1 Istanbul conference of the "Friends of Syria"

March 23 - The U.N. Human Rights Council condemns what it called "sharply escalating" violations by Syrian forces. However both Russia and China vote against a call by the Council to extend a probe into the violations.

-- The EU slaps sanctions on the mother, sister and influential wife of Assad.

(Reporting by David Cutler, London Editorial Reference Unit)

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Syrians in U.S. to get "temporary protected" status
Fri, Mar 23 16:45 PM EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. government said on Friday it would allow Syrians to remain in the United States temporarily because it was too dangerous for them to go home.

"Conditions in Syria have worsened to the point where Syrian nationals already in the United States would face serious threats to their personal safety if they were to return," Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano said in a statement.

The Department of Homeland Security will publish guidelines next week on eligibility requirements and registration for the temporary program, which gives beneficiaries the right to work and prevents deportation regardless of visa status.

Senator Dick Durbin, one of a group of Democratic lawmakers who wrote to President Barack Obama this month seeking the waivers, said the U.S. decision would prevent Syrians from being forced to return "to one of the most violent places on earth."

Syria will joint El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan on the list of countries whose citizens are eligible for the program.

The United States issued more than 8,400 visas to Syrian nationals in the 2010 fiscal year, Durbin's office said in a statement.

(Reporting By Andrew Quinn; Editing by Peter Cooney)