There are approximately 20 million Kurds in Turkey and a relatively small number of short-sighted Kurds in Iraq. Iraq is the only country that gives the Kurds their freedom. For this, Iraq was rewarded by a defiant Kurish leadership that have been working to undermine the country vital interests. Minorities in Iraq have always served foreign occupiers.
The Assyrian Christians served the British occupiers, joined their forces and fought and killed Iraqis in 1941.The Sunni Arabs (20% of the population) were appointed to rule Iraq (1918-1958)and served Britain strategic interests. The Kurds are currently serving the Americans and their Israeli dogs. As an examplae, MOSSAD agents operate freely in Sulymania and Arbil and travel south to carry out dirty works and assassinations (355 Iraqi Scientists were killed by MOSSAD) on behalf of the Americans. But all these practices are tied to the occupation and things will eventually return to normality. The Americans have the habits of using and dumping their agents (e.g.The Shah, Marcos, Saddam, Bin laden) and the fate of the Kurdish agents will not be different.
There is no such thing as Kurdistan, Arabistan, Christianstan, Yazidistan or Tourkemnistan but there is only one Iraq; from Zakhu to AL-Fao. If the Tarzani leadership wants to flirt with the Israelis we can easily retaliate by flirting with the Turks, the Kurds traditional enemy. Let me hear the word Kurdistan after the brutal American occupation was over. The Kurdish people will suffer if they follow the Tarzanis.
Adnan Darwash, Iraq Occupation Times
================
Separatism and Sectarianism in the Barzani Speech:
Quotes from Reidar Visser on Wednesday, 21 March 2012 17:15
As usual, there are numerous problems in the way the Kurdish leadership appeal to the Iraqi constitution whenever they are in conflict with Maliki, including the contradictive statement “the Iraqi constitution is constantly violated and the Erbil agreement, which was the basis upon which the current government was formed, has been completely ignored.” With its creation of extra-constitutional institutions and its attempts to change the Iraqi state structure by fiat when in fact referendums are constitutionally required, the Arbil agreement is itself a veritable violation of the Iraqi constitution!
For his part, if he feels sufficiently threatened by Barzani et al., Maliki will probably turn to the Sadrists as his option of choice, something which again would underline sectarian polarisation.
In a way, Barzani and the Kurds are honest. They often articulate their independence dreams. Similarly, that a Shiite party like ISCI sometimes talks like this is perhaps not so surprising either, since its sectarianism is often expressed very clearly. The more remarkable aspect in all of this is the constant fraternization by an avowedly secular and Iraqi nationalist party – Iraqiyya – with these basically separatist forces.
I agree it is looking a bit epic with both the US and Iran apparently wanting Maliki to stay! Sometimes, though, I wonder whether the Iranians might really prefer Jaafari.
=====
Saturday, 03 March 2012, 08:20 GMT
Author Bah Bah Black Sheep View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted 2012-02-12 16:34
Subject GKP NAV updated - Cheap at half-price View parent message
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 350 times.
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Once again, many many thanks Spidymonkey for translating mundane number crunching into a visually awesome, intuitively obvious - NAV Calculator:
http://www.navcalculator.com/GKP_NAV.php
What you 'do' in today's hi-tech computer visualisation world is just so far beyond my capabilities that I can only look-on in amazement. I am sure that I'm not alone! You must surely be gainfully employed doing this type of stuff and I hope they pay you accordingly! But I have to say that the meagre contributions received on your site to date just do not seem right. I will come back to this.
The main point of this post is to review that infamous 'BBBS Potential' button - based on what we know today.
Using the updated price and profit values that Spidy has just implemented:
- an oil price of $100,
- a PSC profit of 13% before tax (corresponding to tpo's 7.8% profit after the 40% AISP tax),
- a Discount Rate Reduction Factor (DRRF) of 0.6185 (corresponding to the reduction observed within the Cannacord Adams evaluation of several generic Kurdistan PSC's when applying a Discount Rate of 10%),
and with all other settings 'as is', the 'BBBS Potential' button yields:
· £52.47/share with the default DRRF value of 0.6185
· £84.83/share if no Discount Factor is applied (DRRF=1.0)
The above calculations do of course presume that the current number of shares in issue will remain at 854.116 million. Which, given the BOD's penchant for healthy (!) Option awards, is extremely unlikely - nay, guaranteed impossible - to be the case. There are already 'quite a few' Options outstanding - and we are now in that 'time of year' again! So let me take a stab at the next RNS, combine it with the previous known outstanding Option awards - and hey presto, we are probably looking at close to 935 million shares. Sticking that in the Calculator then gives the following results for the 'BBBS Potential' button:
· £47.93/share with the default DRRF value of 0.6185
· £77.49/share if no Discount Factor is applied (DRRF=1.0)
I'll come back to these rather large £ numbers a bit later - first a deeper look at the input OIP numbers that I guestimated for this button so many moons ago:
Potential OIP - the 'BBBS Potential' button
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I've been steady as a rock on my 100 billion barrels across all four Blocks for quite some time now. I started out by saying "I ain't being conservative no more", but alas and alack, Shaikan keeps showing me up - as I have admitted in several of my more recent posts. Let me be clear - my current view is that 100 billion barrels is DEFINITELY conservative. I have been working on a post for some time now that attempts to justify why Shaikan will most likley end up containing 30+ billion barrels. That post is now delayed further (by this one!), but it won't change anything with respect to my nice round numbers on the 'button' - it will only add justification as to why I view 100 billion barrels as CONSERVATIVE. IMO.
It's all Shaikan's fault - it just keeps getting bigger and better - and this has a knock-on effect on Ber Bahr and Sheikh Adi which are both 'calibrated' on Shaikan in accordance with the main man's estimations (x1.5 and x0.5 respectively). Similarly, Akri Bijeel has always been conservatively extrapolated as 'another Shaikan again'. Anyway, enough about me, what have GKP been saying lately? Ah yes, the 'LSE Presentation'. That was made by TK in London on 26th January, followed a few days later by JG's presentation of the same material in New York. The Presentation itself is not that interesting - but the 'remarks' made by TK and JG are extremely revealing:
- Thanks to mOlineux, we have a summary of TK's remarks here:
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AGKP.L&display=discussion&action=detail&id=9213686
- and thanks to HamishNY, we have JG's comments here:
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AGKP.L&display=discussion&action=detail&id=9237609
Now before examining any of their comments, I think it's important to review the 'character' of these merchants who 'manage our expectations'. I think it's worthwhile going right back to the Shaikan pre-drilling expectations as summarised on slide #24 of the February 2009 presentation (couldn't find it on the GKP website - good job other people keep copies!):
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/genera/files/companies/gkp_one2one_compressed_february_2009_2_compatibility_mode.pdf
So the pre-drill expectation for Shaikan was just 2.67 billion barrels P50 - assuming ALL potential reservoirs from Cretaceous through to the Permian are "full to spill". LOL! So where did it all go so right Todd? Clearly, the pre-drill expectation for Shaikan was that - like Miran West - the reservoirs would be predominantly fractured limestones - with NO significant matrix porosity. The total pore volume available for fluids in such reservoirs are just the fractures themselves - conventional logs would reveal ZERO Net Pay. The reservoir volumes would have to be guestimated purely on the basis of fracture porosity, fracture density etc. As things turned out - the drill bit and the logs showed that Shaikan has been blessed with a great degree of dolomitisation throughout most of it's reservoirs.
This is not incidental. Whilst the process by which Limestone is transformed into Dolomite is still not that well understood (it requires the 'right' conditions of burial pressure, temperature, fluid regime etc) - the crucial aspect is that the process 'generates' porosity in the rock. The porosity (vugs and holes) yielded in the dolomitisation process are the stuff of an oilman's dream - because this is matrix porosity, which is capabable of storing at least an order of magnitude more than mere fracture porosity. So when matrix porosity is found to be full of the black stuff, it translates into Net Pay - which consequently will also be an order of magnitude greater than reservoirs containing just rock fractures filled with hydrocarbons (that last word is intended for Miran West of course!).
So, there you go, 2.67 billion CAN jump to 26.7 billion with a little help from matrix porosity. And then some (IMO). Todd's dream then turned into a fantasy when he found all that high pressure light oil down in the Upper Triassic, together with oodles of H2S enriched gas which will come in very handy when it comes to recovery and 'mixing' of the heavier oils in the Jurassic (and perhaps even the Cretaceous). But I digress. What is my point? The point is that GKP were VERY conservative from the get-go on their Shaikan expectations.
And the level of conservatism did not stop there. Next, Todd's CNN interview at the end of November 2009. I highly recommend that some should go back and watch again. Because, there was no mention of 18 billion barrels Hub. Todd's numbers were 10-15 billion barrels. Most of us were gob-smacked. And at the FirstEnergy Global Energy Conference a few days later, Todd was asked to clarify whether he was talking OIP resources or recoverable reserves. He said "both" as he was "hedging his bets". LOL! His precise words were:
"I said it for both actually… I hedged my bets… (laughs) It’s errrr… yes, I did. On the Shaikan, I said potential. My personal opinion of the potential, and it’s not guidance, the guidance should come from DGA. Managements’ impression is 10 to 15. The upper limit on DGA is approximately just shy of 11 billion, just from the Jurassic. Now we have tested roughly 20000 barrels per day from the Triassic, and we’re unable to test the oil zone that we drilled underneath that. So, it is not out of the realms of possibility from both the combination of the DGA report on the Jurassic, the further appraisal that is going to be required of the structure… and it’s a HUGE structure, and time is going to tell, it is not out of the realms of potential. 10 to 15 billion barrels is possible."
and during the course of the presenation Todd also said:
"These numbers are from the DGA Report, which was published a couple of months ago. Original oil in place, now this is just information from the Jurassic, the first half of the well we drilled; anywhere in a range from, as I said, probably P90 of a billion and P1 of 10.5 billion. We’ll get to the significance of that, and why we’re even talking of that number, generally in the industry we would not look that far down a Reserve Chart, but in this case it’s quite significant. (Slide 16). That’s why! We drilled this well at 2950m, we have yet, on logs or any well test, to see one drop of water. The lowest well… the next well we can correlate to is 26km away, and from that we can tell that the water is roughly… probably a few hundred metres below where we TD’d this well. So, without further exploration drilling, without further appraisal drilling on this structure, we’ve got to look at it and say, alright, fine, let’s be conservative, and that number is 2 to 5 billion. If you start factoring in these and further appraisal, that is where under managements expectations, I said it this weekend on CNN, it was 10 to 15 billion barrels. Managements expectation based on this information… could very well be, just for Shaikan, let alone the package of four licences, we could be looking at potential reserves in the range of 10 to 15 billion barrels for these licences in Kurdistan."
There was a hushed silence from the 'men in suits' - I couldn't hear precisely what they were thinking, but I suspect it was along the lines of 'yeah right, another brash arrogant yanky bullsheeter'. Well how think you now you slimy suited city so-and-sos? The current Shaikan OIP stands at 8 to 13.4 billion with at least three major upgrades still to come: (i) inclusion of ALL log and test results - especially the *crappy* zones - from SH-4 and SH-2, (ii) SH-5 and (iii) SH-6. (This doesn't include the Lower Triassic and Permian upside which will now, regrettably, most likely become a bounus for the next-man.) It is self-evident from the above that Todd Kozel is CONSERVATIVE.
And since TK is conservative, the only possible 'description' for JG is "ultra-conservative". IMO.
So what did the Republicans have to say about Shaikan during their LSE Presentations? According to the above posts:
- TK: "The upside potential on Shaikan is 100% based upon 8-13 bn barrels of oip". Which is 16 bn (P90) - 21 bn (Pmean) - 26.8 bn (P10).
- JG: "He said that he believes current figures (for Shaikan in particular) are conservative. He later mentioned on 2 separate occasions they are confident Shaikan is full to spill and a figure of 18bn barrels is likely."
So who do you believe? Mr conservative, or Mr ultra-conservative, (or BBBS who has a documented history - read my past posts - of being conservative LOL). I would definitely not go down the ultra-conservative path of tpo, Dalesmann and co who immediately jumped on the JG 18 billion number. Nah, I'm with Todd here, our conservatism is starting to converge nicely around the mid-twenties. Don't forget that Todd's 21 billion is most likely just down to the currently drilled Upper Triassic. They didn't stop drilling all wells to date at the Kurre Chine C for no reason - the pressure down there must be massive. And the SOURCE of the high pressure will NOT be water in the under-lying Kurre Chine Dolomite Formation. Since it is unlikely that GKP will be the 'steward' when SH-7 hits, I guess I could begrudgingly 'settle' for a conservative 25 billion barrels and call it quits after SH-6. I am of course only talking about Shaikan here.
So what did they say about Ber Bahr? From the posts above:
- TK: "went on to say that BB is the same as Shaikan if successful in terms of the drill site I think (later referred to BB as 1.5 times Shaikan)."
- JG: "BB - 5bn to 10bn expected"
Well thanks JG, but I'll stay with TK on this one. I am reassured to see Todd re-state the x1.5 Shaikan as it was first mentioned a long time ago - before the 3D seismic results. It seems that nothing much has changed between 2D and 3D (oh, apart from a mere 5%-10% increase in size lol!) with regard to relative sizes between SH, BB and SA. So I also remain with TK's previous guidance on Sheikh Adi at x0.5 Shaikan (rather than JG's "SA - 3bn to 6bn"). But, to be fair to JG, he has 'moved' somewhat in the space of a few weeks. It seems like only yesterday that JG announced by RNS that the BB pre-spud estimate had been revised downwards from 1.9 bn to 1.5 bn. So the 'new JG P50' of 7.5 bn has risen dramatically by a factor of 5 in the space of the last couple of months - do you think they've spotted some matrix porosity at BB? LOL!
Finally, what about Akri Bijeel? Again from the posts:
- TK: "They are NOT calling AB a discovery yet. Estimated to contain 2.5 bn barrels"
- JG: "AB - MID 20s. (yes, big number). Said if they don't get good price for AB share (process to start this week) then they would hang on as could be v profitable."
Hmmmm, you gone very quiet Todd - anything to do with that interview you gave to Dow Jones NewsWires on 14th September 2011 and your comment about "the possibility of an 8 billion barrel discovery" at Bekhme? I guess it must be a bit like Sheikh Adi - you know it's there but haven't yet figured out the best way to crack it open. Frac it, that's what I say, frac it, frac it, frac it. Monster frac - if the oil found a way in there then good ol' Texas technology will find a way to get it back out I'm sure (if the latest fraccing techniques can open-up malleable, ductile shale beds - imagine what can be achieved in stressed, brittle carbonate rocks ..). And as for you JG, of course you ain't gonna sell AB anytime soon - those "MID 20s" are just too valuable for the next-man. And, btw JG, - snap, I've also been ultra- conservative with a 25 bn estimate for AB Potential since way back when.
In conclusion: the BBBS Potential button is conservative. IMO. And perhaps also in TK's opinion. BUT, and this is a big BUT, remember that we are talking about POTENTIAL. GKP's days are obviously numbered, and there will sadly be insufficient time to PROVE all of the Potential. But that does not mean that the Buyer will get the Potential for free.
I was going to stop 'Potential OIP' here. But I just heard a question from cyberspace saying 'BBBS - how much OIP will be proven by the end of SH-6?'. Ok, if you insist, but this is ONLY my opinion:
SH-6, if it confirms the OWC in the Jurassic - in accordance with the flank location selected for this well - then there will be TWO major consequences:
1. The OIP at Shaikan will gain a crucial boundary point for Shaikan OIP calculations. This, together with the wide areal coverage of all six Shaikan wells, will allow for quite precise estimates of OIP in the Jurassic. There will also be significant proven volumes in the Upper Triassic, but with an open-ended 'lowest known oil' since the Triassic OWC will remain unknown. Even so, I would expect total proven OIP of the order 18bn (JG) to 21 bn (TK). These volumes should mostly fall within 2P category. IMO.
2. The OWC, if confirmed by SH-6, is NOT only relevant to Shaikan. The Shaikan Jurassic OWC is most likely one and the same as the OWC for the SH-SA-BB mega-structure. Simply because the spill-point at Shaikan is also most likely one and the same as the spill-point for the SH-SA-BB mega-structure. I am starting to tire from banging on about this for so long. One more time, look at the series of slides from #15 through #18 in the May 2010 Investor Presentation:
http://www.gulfkeystone.com/uploads/gkp-investor-presentation-may-2010.pdf
- slide #14 shows the seismic-interpreted top Jurassic surface with a 'base (OWC) level' of 784m TVDSS. The SH, SA and BB structures are clearly 'separate'.
- slide #15 shows the seismic-interpreted top Jurassic surface with a 'base (OWC) level' of 1169m TVDSS. The SA and BB structures start to 'merge', but SH is clearly 'separate'.
- slide #16 shows the seismic-interpreted top Jurassic surface with a 'base (OWC) level' of 1500m TVDSS. The SA and BB structures become 'one', and SH is starting to 'merge' (although GKP have made things less-than-clear by their decision to 'cut-out' the Al Qush area surface interpretation).
- slide #17 shows the seismic-interpreted top Jurassic surface with a 'base (OWC) level' of 2230m TVDSS. All three structures are now definitely 'one' (and you don't need to be a rocket scientist to eye-ball what is happening in the 'cut-out' Al Qosh area). The choice of the (P1, at that time) 2230 m TVDSS reference depth is not coincidental. This is the predicted depth of the OWC from oil pressure data in SH-1 together with the outrageous (at the time) use of water pressure data from the Jebel Kand well sitting 26 km away! BUT, this apparent 'long-shot' prediction of OWC does not stand alone - that same depth is very close to the spill-point depth of the Shaikan structure which was of course determined from seismic (i.e. two entirely separate datasets - one from pressure, the other from seismic, pointing at the same depth location). When the OWC depth coincides with the structure spill-point depth - the structure is regarded as being 'filled to spill'. Coincidence is rare (there is normally a reason for most things), and when you 'observe' what you expected (filled to spill), take heed. IMO.
- an expanded contour map corresponding to slide #17 is shown in slide #14. A slide I have referenced so many time before. This slide says SO MUCH MORE than GRH1's two- dimensional surface images (sorry GRH1, absolutely no offence intended, but as you well know, surface images will never say anything about the VOLUMES below). Slide #14 speaks sub-surface VOLUMES. This slide is the primary source of my 'BBBS Potential' OIP estimates.
So as I was saying, .... the OWC, if confirmed by SH-6, will lead directly to the calculation of OIP volumes throughout the entire SH-SA-BB mega-structure - PROVIDED THAT the 3D seismic interpretation confirms the connectivity shown by the 2D seismic from slide #14 in the May 2010 Presentation. How much OIP will that be? Much will depend on confirmation at BB-1. It will not be crucial to have good flow-rates at BB-1 - but the well must show that the Jurassic interval is fully oil-bearing. And, ideally, at least a few successful formation pressure tests to confirm the same pressure regime as Shaikan. With those two boxes ticked, it will merely be a case of projecting appropriate reservoir parameter for Net/Gross, Porosity and Saturaion throughout the mega-structure volume defined by the 3D seismic. There will be higher uncertainties throughout SA and BB of course due to the lack of wells, but a mightily SIGNIFICANT volume of OIP will become proven. IMO.
Ok, enough about the background to the 'BBBS Potential button - back to the big £ numbers that it produces. As I mentioned above, using 935 million shares in issue, the button yields:
· £47.93/share with the default DRRF value of 0.6185
· £77.49/share if no Discount Factor is applied (DRRF=1.0)
The latter value above, £77.49, is equivalent to US$122 at current exchange rates. As previously commented by many others, an NOC who is primarily interested in securing resources (rather than achieving a direct profit from the PSC) will most likely be willing to apply a zero Discount Rate. But these guys are not stupid either - they would probably also apply a risk factor of 50% to the whole deal. Don't you think CJ? Now what would that give? US$61 - cheap at half-price...
And if the same 50% risk factor logic were to be applied by some cheapskate American IOC, then they may only offer 50% of the first number - around £24/share. Not good enough IMO - show them the door Todd - or threaten a merger with BP, um, I mean Genel ...
GLA,
BBBS
P.S. Just a thought - please do NOT tick up this post, unless you can also see the way clear to make a well-deserved contribution to Spidy for his outstanding efforts in putting the NAV Calculator together. A mere tenner from each of us would be a nice gesture don't you think?
P.P.S. Spidy, you really should have just put a 'pound-a-pop' on the 'BBBS Potential' button!
===
Author sicilian_kan View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 20:54
Subject How Todd Knew...
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 50 times.
Message
It was on 19 Feb 2012 that Todd / the IoS insinuated that the PI might be squeezed out by the City, the report stating:
"However, Mr Kozel said that he hoped that small private investors, who speculate feverishly about the company on online discussion forums and some of whom have risked their life-savings on GKP, would not be squeezed out by the big City firms. "We have plenty of blue chip institutions invested in us already, why shouldn't the private investors stay as well? What's the difference between them and the blue chips [to the final share price]?" he asked."
Since then we have had Cannacord Genuity on 21 Feb give a target price of 210p, Investec on 22 Feb give a target price of 191p and HSBC today give a target price of 280p, all of which are targets far below today's price of 339p let alone below the price the day after Todd spoke of 430p.
Which lead me to two trivial and obvious, but tangentally related, stories.
1) Last year, in September, a broker (Singer Capital) downgraded another stock of mine, Immupharma, suggesting that there would be no significant news until Q3 2012, including the statement that "the decision to progress Lupuzor into Phase-III will now not be made until, we believe, Q3 2012 at the earliest.". I contacted their Investor Relations team, who stated to me that "We are all perplexed by the note. Unfortunately the analyst did not speak to ImmuPharma in order to discuss his observations and make sure that the note was accurate. We are meeting tomorrow to discuss."
One month later, Immupharma recovered 100% of Lupuzor exercising a right of control over its return once the licensee was taken over. Two months later Lupuzor was given Phase III approval, fast track status by the FDA and a Special Protocol Assessment (i.e. confirming that the drug would be approved after Phase III if certain targets were met). All of which is hugely valuable and obviously important news, albeit the market has not appreciated the same.
Anyhow, the point is that it is usual for brokers publishing notes to contact the company beforehand to check that they are accurate, though the broker of course has the final say. So in my view, it is highly likely that Todd will have seen the Cannacord and Investec notes when he gave the IoS story and he might also have had an indication about the HSBC target price (which contains the ridiculous assertion that people are taking profits ahead of the next well result to mitigate against the risk of a poor outcome, because we all know that SH4 is a duster don't we, given that it only has 2,300m of gross pay and a 5m thin zone producing 5,000 bopd, as well as being JG's "best yet" (thanks TRINDERM for the summary)).
Perhaps his awareness of some of this rubbish / these notes was one reason why he gave the interview that he did. Or perhaps he also knows more?
2) I'm also a Stratex shareholder. I switched from shares to spread bets recently, to a spread bet firm who cover the spread bet in full value with shares. I'd sold at around 11p on the shares. They had to buy 350k shares, which is around 0.1% of a £35m company, and I set a 10.25p limit to get a little profit, because I can be greedy like that.
By lunch they had only filled half the order. Their advice to me was not to offer to pay more but to stick with my current price. Don't worry they said, the MM might move the price around if the order doesn't get filled. Given that I had a maximum price at the current spread, that could have only meant down, to fill my buy order. Note, I had not authorised or encouraged them to do this. The order got filled at 16:29 and 16:30 at the close of play. They did not in the end move the price (and the irony is that I could have bought for even less had I waited until now).
Now if MMs will move the price down for me, a small time holder seeking 0.1% of a £35m company, what do you think they will do for the big boys where the real money is? The answer is obvious. What's the best way to get shares to sell? Not by encouraging buying with an increasing share price is it?
So there it goes. Where will the GKP price go next? I have no idea. All I know is that 1) I believe in the minimum £8 but possibly much more story as much as I did before this spike up from 190p, and if I continue to believe I continue to hold, and 2) if I lose some profit, it doesn't bother me. I would regret far more heavily selling and missing out on £8-£17 if it does well, than holding and losing some of my profit.
In short, I'm in Todd's corner. If he thinks that there is no reason why PIs should not stay for the final price, that is good enough for me. I'm sticking here.
============
Mon 23:15
Re: HSBC note
golfguy31
7UP
So GKP would be all it's money then golfguy in a brokers view. Brokers views that tend to lean heavily to the upside, and should have their targets viewed as upside biased imo?
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BH,
I'm keeping well thanks.
I was merely humouring the HSBC valuation but correcting it for improved political risk!
336p.....or around the 38.2% fib
Anyway.....Genel paid $1.50 pb for 1.4 billion boe. Quote: Tony hayward said..."Most importantly, we are doing so at the attractive entry price of some US$1.50 a barrel."
GKP currently have a net of 7.54 billion boe across SH, SA & AB.
Using the Genel $1.50pb paid figure (Pre Exxon entry premium) on 7.54 billion boe yields $11.31bn (£7.14bn)...or 795p per share.
795p minus 40% political risk equals 477p as it currently stands.
Plently of upside from 336p to 477p imo......and that's before the 100% upside in Shaikan's OIP over the coming weeks.
GKP has got at least 1000p written all over it when the bids roll in.
=====
Subject Statoil are in Kurdistan
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 45 times.
Message
Hate to be a bore, but I did mention this news about Statoil selling up in WQ in my posting on the 9th Feb...!
The reason Helge Lund (Statoil Pres. & CEO) said he was pulling out was mostly down to "deteriorating security concerns" and that their 18-ish % stake wasn't worth the bother.
But there is also more to it than that:
I know from a very reliable, very senior source at the Foreign & Commenwealth Office that Statoil ARE in Kurdistan and actively interested in acquistions. That's not conjecture - that is a fact, from the British government on the ground over there.
Another massive name (and most advanced NOC in the world) joins the goldrush...!
============
What have Exxon been doing?
sellthepope
12UP
I'm sure this has been covered at some point, but it's a full-time job reading every post on this BB!!
Just awful what happened yesterday, I thought this share had “grown up” out of such disgusting behaviour, but it’s still AIM and as such open to abuse like that.
But the price falling so dramatically (£4.50 to £2.10 in a relatively short time, in effect, for no apparent reason) and the story from Baghdad that Exxon have asked for “a few more days” got me thinking.
What have they been up to since the Contracts were signed in October???
Exxon’s turnover is about $400Bn. Iraq’s GDP is about $80Bn. So they are 5 times the size of the entire Country of Iraq. They are an unbelievably organised, cunning, ruthless and well-oiled (sorry) machine, and Iraq seems to be an incredibly disorganised mess, with arguing self-interested politicians trying to pull the country in 5 different directions for many years.
So despite the fact Exxon are “away from home” they are clearly in a much more powerful position than either Baghdad or the KRG, or both together, which they aren’t anyway.
So what have they been up to since October?? Obviously they wanted to keep the deal as secret as possible but the KRG wanted to make it as public as possible as soon as possible. I should imagine that their announcement at the Oil Conference upset Exxon A LOT.
Exxon want everything, as many contracts in the south as they can (even though they complain about them) and the contracts in the North. Their legal people must have been working very hard to find a way to make this possible. But this can’t take 5 months, they’d have found a way very quickly if it was possible, and I assume they have...??
So the only thing they have been doing is buying time. Making Baghdad and the KRG sweat so they can have more leverage over either or both??? Have they been off doing secret seismic tests on their Kurd oil fields to see if they are potentially amazing, rubbish, or somewhere in between - and make their decision regarding drilling those fields or buying their way in (please!!!). I’d imagine if the KRG had a clue about what was a good area, they would have ensured Exxon got the cream of the crop....
And if they’ve just been buying time (trying to delay, delay, delay until the April auctions for the South?, which Baghdad are trying to stop them doing obviously) why do they need a few more days, what difference would that make??
I have no idea, these are just my thoughts, and yours would be gratefully appreciated.
I got shafted yesterday for 20% of my holding on a very very rare and very very stupid day trade. Picked the wrong day for that. I thought all this madness that we had last August and last March (from memory) had all gone away. How wrong can you be. Whoever was behind yesterday’s fall down the toilet and back out again is very powerful and has greatly upset this shareholder. Still, I should have more than enough to pay off the Mortgage at takeover. But the Ferrari will have to be forgotten. Still, I’d probably have killed myself in it.
Good Luck all, and sensible comments would be lovely.
===========
Statoil pull out of West Qurna
laserbill
16UP
Wed Mar 7, 2012 9:05am GMT
* Statoil sells its stake in W.Qurna to Lukoil
* Iraq's Oil Ministry approves the deal (Adds detail, background)
(Reuters) - Iraq has approved the sale by Norway's Statoil ASA of its minority stake in a supergiant oil field to Lukoil OAO, making the Russian firm the sole foreign partner in one of Iraq's biggest new oil projects, two Iraqi oil industry sources said.
Statoil will sell its 18.75 percent state in the West Qurna Phase-2 field to Lukoil, giving the Russian firm a 75 percent stake. An Iraqi state oil company owns the other 25 percent.
The deal makes Statoil the first big Western oil firm to abandon one of the lucrative oil deals offered by Iraq in recent years.
"Statoil reached an agreement with Lukoil to sell its stake in West Qurna-2, and Iraq's Oil Ministry approved the deal," an Iraqi oil industry source said.
Another Iraqi oil industry source confirmed the deal. "Statoil has sold its stake to Lukoil and Lukoil now is the sole operator of West Qurna-2," the second source said.
The Norwegian state company has considered quitting Iraq for some time and turning its attention to less-risky assets elsewhere, industry sources say. It is planning billions of dollars worth of investments in areas such as offshore Norway and in the United States.
Lukoil and Statoil sealed the 20-year deal in December 2009 to develop the virgin field. They targeted a plateau output of 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in six years.
Iraq has signed several oil deals to develop its vast oil fields which target capacity of 12 million bpd by 2017.
Infrastructure bottlenecks and bureaucratic hurdles make achieving a target of 6 million bpd look ambitious, but the deals are still expected to make Iraq one of the world's biggest sources of new oil in the next few years.
Iraq's oil production has been held back by decades of war and sanctions, but officials say they now expect it to rise quickly. Iraq said this week its production had reached 3 million bpd for the first time since 1979.
===
Exxon to Decide Iraq Strategy in Days
Posted on 07 March 2012. Tags: Exxon, Exxon Mobil, ExxonMobil, Kurdistan, oil contracts, West Qurna
Exxon to Decide Iraq Strategy in Days
ExxonMobil has reportedly asked the Iraqi central government to give it a few more days to decide whether or not it will cancel an exploration deal with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
Baghdad has asked the U.S. giant to choose between the KRG deal and the existing contract with central-government to develop the 370,000 barrels-a-day West Qurna 1 field, which has proven reserves of 8.7 billion barrels.
In the meantime, Exxon has been excluded from Iraq’s fourth oil-and-gas licensing auction, scheduled for May. Exxon has also reportedly been barred from a contract worth up to $10 billion to build a joint water-injection project in southern Iraq.
“[Exxon] has asked the Deputy Prime Minister to give it some more days in order to decide its stance on the contract it signed with Kurdistan,” Faisal Abdullah, a spokesman for the Iraqi Oil Ministry, told Dow Jones Newswires.
The Iraqi government has sent Exxon three letters asking it to choose between between the deals.
“The central government is waiting for Exxon to respond to our letters and on the light of Exxon’s response, Baghdad would take a decision,” Abdullah said.
(Source: Dow Jones)
===
Gulf Keystone Shares Slump on Kurdistan Worries
Posted on 07 March 2012. Tags: Exxon, Exxon Mobil, ExxonMobil, GKP, Gulf Keystone, Kurdistan
Gulf Keystone Shares Slump on Kurdistan Worries
More than £1 billion ($1.6 billion) was wiped off the value of Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) during trading on Tuesday, as its share price fell by one third to 228.5p. Some of those losses have been recovered on Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning, with the shares currently changing hands at 275p.
The falls were attrributed to Tuesday’s comments by the Iraqi government regarding ExxonMobil‘s decision, expected in the coming days, on its contracts in Kurdistan Regional Government.
GKP has been seen as a potential takeover target following Exxon Mobil’s agreement with the KRG, and some regard the sharp fall in its share price as a sign that some speculative premium is leaking away.
Sentiment was also not helped by some bearish comments in an analysts’ report from HSBC.
Snakes in the Grass.
ChapinAfrica
28UP
What a truely disburbing few days,......A real Cannaworms opened up,...followed by a Ha Ha SBC, broker note,.....and then The Terminal Greek Euro Cancer,... to compound matters further China realise their growth is wrapped up with Irans problems,.......simple solutions start to evolve,....Statoil realises South Iraq is not worth the effort or investment,...... very shrewd these North Europeans,......so Statoil is on the M&A trail,.....North Sea or Inland North Iraq?......Hmmmmmm,......Exxon cannot make their minds up just yet,......Chevron are waiting,....so are just about every other IOC or NOC,.....who will table the first bid,.....the first bid is toast,...we all know that,...so do they go high or low,... unless they have alot of dollars in reserve to up the anti and blow the others into oblivion,.......this is now going to be the bun fight of the century,......never mind TK we need Gary Cooper,.....
AIMOVHO
=============
Iraq fights for transparency bid
Shahristani Luaibi IEITI
Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Hussain al-Shahristani (L) and Abdul Karim Luaibi (R) attend a ceremony marking the publication of Iraq's first Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) report. (STAFF/Iraq Oil Report)
By Ben Lando and Staff of Iraq Oil Report
Published March 7, 2012
Iraq is trying to enter a rarefied club of countries that forswear the secrecy of oil revenues and require oil companies to do the same – a step that would strike a blow against corruption and mark a victory for the global transparency movement.
As one of 21 "candidate countries," Iraq is seeking certification from the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), a 10-year-old Oslo-based organization that aims to increase accountability in the oil, gas, and mining sectors by creati...
============
Where is operation update RNS?
Geodude
16UP
Toby,
How can you possibly come up with figures like 34.43m per day? Or even 40m/day for that matter?
And especially when you say "if no stoppages"!
There will ALWAYS be stoppages. Maybe, if you're lucky, you could get a few days without any, and if you are really really lucky, maybe a week, although on these wells that's highly unlikely. On any drilling operations in places like Kurdistan, you will get more downtime than drilling time. On these appraisal wells you will have regular coring for instance, where they will probably end up with 18m progress in a day, followed by a day with no progress at all; again if they're lucky.
There will be all manner of flatlining on the progress chart - casing, logging, bit trips, drilling problems, maybe open hole DSTs on some wells, and progress in these formations would be 50-100m a day on only a few days per well. The rest you will be averaging considerably less.
Unless you are actually on the wellsite and can see what's happening, it might be a fun exercise to try and calculate TD but it's more than likely going to be very wrong and quite misleading.
Good luck though!
Don't overcomplicate things Simms 45. There's no ongoing conspiracy theory which would suggest that they are keeping "radio silence" deliberately and after yesterday's fiasco they would certainly not be holding back good news.
There is no point issuing RNS's just for the sake of it and if anything, too many RNSs make them start to lose credibility.
The ongoing DSTs from Sh-4 will take time - nothing happens quickly in Kurdistan - and they need to make sure the tests are done efficiently and accurately so as to give the very best results.
I believe and hope they will be excellent and I also think they'll be due out soon, maybe in the next couple of weeks all being well.
On the drilling side I'm sure everything will be continuing as planned but, as with the DSTs, nothing happens quickly in Kurdistan drilling operations.
I'm happy to wait and see what is announced when they are ready. I don't believe for one second that they would ever hold back news.
------
Author Geodude View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted 2012-02-22 20:54
Subject Putting it into perspective
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 109 times.
Message
I think this fall today was pretty much overdue - despite what we would all like, there will never be daily increase after daily increase and sooner rather than later there was bound to be a correction. It’s the way it is.
In GKP, we've seen it happen on numerous occasions in the last few years, from 108p back to 67p, from 165p to 101p (as recently as last August), from 200p+ back to mid 100s. The only difference is that we are now talking relatively larger personal investments and a daily drop of 50p is quite a significant drop (tens of thousands) in potential value to many of us on here.
From my perspective this goes with the whole process of being a part of the Gulf Keystone phenomenon. You take the highs with the lows and if you really do want this to be a once-in-a-lifetime event, you have to stick with it.
Different folks, however, have different perspectives and I would never come on here and tell anyone NOT to sell by using lots of large uppercase letters in short sentences just to emphasise my own opinion. No-one makes a penny out of GKP until they hit that sell button. We can all be paper millionaires or paper ten thousandaires or even make just a few hundred, but if you are still holding when something goes wrong no-one is laughing then and you’ve made nothing. Despite some on here having unlimited optimism, I would put money on the fact that they still have some underlying concerns. Otherwise I’m sure they would all have re-mortgaged and put their life savings in this company. Nothing in this market is an absolute guarantee and that includes GKP.
I know this company as well as most (and possibly better than most to be honest) and I have no intention of panicking and selling up. In terms of my investment strategy, I haven’t re-mortgaged nor have I invested all my life savings, but I have a huge unbalanced portfolio in favour of this one company. If it goes for what I believe it is worth, I’ll be nicely set up for the rest of my life but if it doesn’t I’ll survive pretty well anyway, maybe a bit wiser as well. I’ve been in from the beginning and intend to be in at the end. But I can’t blame people if they want to cash in their profits and I also do not believe that we’ll end up selling at crazy prices, as much as I’d love that to happen.
In my opinion it would be great to make £10 a share. It would be wonderful if some of the very optimist calculations on here came true but I think the most realistic outcome is that they won’t. I’d be more than happy to be proved wrong. I do believe that the current testing of SH-4 will be very positive news but we may have to wait another week or more to find this out as there are multiple horizons to test and any proper testing takes time. Don’t start to get overly concerned by “delayed” news. It will come in good time. Any positive news from Genel could also be icing on the cake.
As I said, falls and gains are all part and parcel of owning a share in a publicly traded company. If you use GKP as an alternative to betting on horses or football, then good luck because luck is all you have on your side. If you are in GKP because you believe it has a proven world class oil discovery, the likes of which are discovered once every few decades, then congratulations to you for your patience and belief in where your money is invested. If you believe in your investment, there’s no need to get too concerned by days like this.
If you decide to sell up now having made 10% or 100% or 1000%, then well done and I hope you enjoy the fruits of your investment. I personally hope that I will see even bigger gains but who knows how it will all pan out?
Good luck to all, although maybe not to those who persistently de-ramp or to those who come on here and make disgusting comments to de-rampers and rampers alike. At the end of the day, surely we all want just to make a profit?
---
--
=============
HSBC report $/bbl_Solved
Robbean
109UP
Hi Everyone,
I was struggling to make sense of HSBC's valuation and $ / bbl figure in their report ($2.33/bbl), which was well below figures we have been using. Well, I had a closer look at the report and found a sneaky little paragraph that explains the difference and leads to a very different conclusion...
HSBC state (p.44): "The key pricing measure that is pertinent to this report is the prices that companies are able to realise on domestic sales. At present the companies achieve USD50-70/bbl. We have assumed this discount will continue and so we assume the domestic price for liquids will run at a 50% discount to our oil price forecast."
So the $/bbl figures they quote include BOTH the 40% tax discount AND a further 50% reduction to reflect the domestic sales situation. This means that if and when exports resume, HSBC will then attribute $4.66 / bbl post tax, or $7.77 pre-tax.
I don't think I'm quite comparing like with like but this is very similar to Dalesman's NPV30 figure (albeit post-tax) of $7.33 and 2P value of $4.62 / bbl. The post-tax value also corresponds closely with JG's valuation figure, calculated from his remarks in New York to be $4.62 / bbl.
So what? Well you would be forgiven for thinking this was their discount for political risk... But no. A separate section detailing HSBC's valuation methods indicates ANOTHER 50% reduction for political risk. Put the two together and we have an effective 75% discount due to the politics/lack of exports, which is essentially a single issue.
Where does this leave us?
HSBC state (p.65): "Using the methodology set out in the valuation section, we derive an asset value for the company of 492p/share. On top of this we add risked exploration upside of 47p/share (full details of the breakdown of this valuation are given later). As we mentioned earlier, we have assumed a 50% discount to NAV for the political risk. This yields a target price of 280p."
At this point, they conveniently fail to mention the 50% discount they have already applied to their $ / bbl figure. Remove this and we are left with an unrisked asset value of 984p, or 492p when discounting by 50% for political risk. Adding exploration upside we have 1078p and 539p, respectively.
I think it's fair to say HSBC are understating the case when they say:
"We believe we have taken a conservative view on the valuations of the companies. There is scope for these valuations to increase as the political tensions ease and the ability to export improves." (p.45)
It would have been nice if they had added "In fact, a complete resolution of the politics and resumption of exports would increase our valuation four-fold, based on present OiP figures. With updates due any time from Sh-4, 5, and 6, we rate GKP a STONKING BUY at these levels"
But this wouldn't have served their clients who wanted in at the lowest possible price now, would it?
I hope this helps anyone else who has struggled to reconcile the figures in the report and those of Dalesman, BBBS, TPO, Gramacho and others who have studied the PSC terms. Not least because the report has been used as a catalyst to send the sp tumbling.
Good luck all- Rob
====
HSBC report $/bbl_Solved
Texas Tea 2
11UP
As always, just because the numbers come out of a spreadsheet does not make them right
I wonder what the HSBC analyst thought that small pipeline that is being tendered for would be used for?
==============
Re: HSBC report $/bbl_Solved
Arundallio
2UP
He does not trade in shares and knows nothing of the market of GKP or my thoughts on market manipulation and market makers and other dark side conspiracy.
He does not trade in shares and knows nothing of the market of GKP or my thoughts on market manipulation and market makers and other dark side conspiracy.
Anyway we were having a chat about my trading and he said that one of his patients now retired in his mid 40's used to own one of the biggest hege funds in the Far East. He sold out for 100's of millions a few years back. My Doc always looking for info asked him for some share tips " just in case" and was surprised to find out that this guy would not touch the stocks and shares but trades only in bonds, property and other assets now to increase and protect his personal wealth. My Doc asked why that was when clearly he would have an inside line on information.
The reason given, by the ex hedge fund owner, was that he was sick of the industry that " Fuuucks people over!" He want on to say that in his business he and his staff would on a daily basis literally stand and startthe day with the ritual communal chant of " who shall we fuuuck today "
The process was just as we have discussed many times which is to identify individual stocks or companies spread false rumour, misleading information to move the SP to create opportunities for them as a trading house and their clients. That was how they made their money.
That was his bread and butter and he is sick of it.
An insight into the real world from the horses mouth albeit second hand
Believe and Hold
A
They probably thought it was a fall-back in case one of the trucks get a flat tyre?
Hi Rob,
In other words... Based on HSBCs "own" figures, and in their "risked" view we are actually worth approx £10+ the MOMENT that we get some sort of official confirmation on one of several issues.'
Re: HSBC report $/bbl_Solved
Arundallio
1UP
Ron
Thank you for making sense of that for us.
Regarding Brokers and MM's and others it's just a wonderful skill to be honest and disingenuous at the same time. Ecomomical with the truth or interpreting it differently to meet ones aims. To be fair we all do it but these guys work in the big league.
==
hsbc account
bonobo77
28UP
If you do choose to email him, can I suggest you exercise some decorum and restraint.
I doubt you will get replies, but you might if:
(a) You remind him(Peter Hitchens) that you are a customer of his bank (for HSBC customers)
(b) Challenge his note in an articulate and reasoned manner.
For example, is he sufficiently encouraged by Rex Tillerson's first public confirmation of the world No.1's commitment to Kurdistan to re-evaluate some of the discounts he has applied to GKP (especially in regard to risk in the region).
etc.
-
Re: Gulf Keystone faces a rather large p...
Fruit n Veg
13UP
Daily Mail readers may be familiar with a common device often used when no proper attribution is quoted. That device is the use of the verb ‘emerge’.
For instance, our UAE paper, the National, uses it here:
“Sales of Keystone stock intensified when it emerged on Tuesday that ExxonMobil had requested more time to decide whether to pursue its plans in Kurdistan at the cost of being excluded from a future bid round in the south.”
There is no validation of this alleged request for more time. Exxon would not have commented, so there is no primary source, making it hearsay.
They must have lifted it wholesale from Reuters, which reported:
“ ‘Exxon came to Baghdad last month and asked for more time to return with a reply on Kurdish deals and the government decided to give them a final deadline,’ said Faisal Abdullah, a spokesman for Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Hussain al-Shahristani.' ”
But Reuters is not credited in the National’s story.
That report is, as we know, now deleted from Reuters’ file. Strange...
This is an example of what I was going on about earlier. These papers do not make enquiries of their own. They just parrot unspecified newswires!
Quality journalism tends to avoid these devices such as 'it emerged' in favour of attribution.
--
Author Fruit n Veg View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 18:07
Subject Propaganda War
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 112 times.
Message
The tactic of sowing the seeds of doubt is not unfamiliar with ‘the trailer trash’ element which routinely molests this BB and unfortunately gets responded to.
But put their brand of crass illiteracy and hysteria into half-decent English and, unfortunately, you have the makings of a damaging propaganda campaign.
It starts with a newswire – the scrag end of journalism, I have to admit, but it is what those screaming, stressed-out screen jockeys on trading desks and their analyst superiors read all day on their Bloomberg screens.
Put out a report – eg ‘shares sharply lower AMID FEARS that Exxon might pull out of Kurdistan’ - on a newswire and you have the makings of a story for the evening newspaper market reports and the morning dailies.
If it gets through, it duly gets debated here when, in reality, it was never anywhere near to being an issue. When did Exxon ever even so much as hint that they were reconsidering Kurdistan?
There is never much time in a busy newsroom to dig around for a real reason for a price move – especially when one is handed to you on a plate - so most of this garbage gets picked up without any critical faculties being applied by editors and ends up getting printed verbatim.
We here sometimes forget just how close we are to the story. No ordinary hack can match that – he or she is far too busy and overstretched. Thus we will routinely be faced with media half-truth or outright misinformation.
Those who originate these stories are the real manipulators – banks, trading houses, the usual suspects with an agenda to peddle - but the offending media themselves are often unwitting, unsuspecting vehicles for it. Ignorance, of course, is no excuse.
I exclude from this FT Puppetville because while they are undoubtedly fairly ignorant by their own admission and, like newswires, are situated at the cheap end of the electronic publishing market, they are malicious in intent and they serve vested interests. Accordingly, there are no extenuating circumstances whatsoever to redeem these sad, small-minded, middling imbeciles whose bread and butter is the snide comment..
So here on this BB we have, in the last week, had to fight these baseless and irrelevant stories about Exxon’s intentions in relation to Kurdistan. But fighting lies is part of what we have to do, not necessarily out of commitment to truth and justice – though this is important – but because we all have an economic interest here which we have to defend.
If there is one single reason for this BB to exist it is to represent to the wider world, as best we can, the case for being invested in this company. Long may that continue.
==
HSBC + Market Manipulation?
bonobo77
57UP
Market manipulation?
Collusion and conspiracy?
Never ...
September 2011
HSBC accused of manipulating Silver market
HSBC had been named by individual silver investors in the original lawsuit filed last year, but … the filing shows the sides may be attempting to negotiate outside of court.
The original lawsuit alleged both banks accumulated massive short positions on silver futures, essentially betting that the price of silver would fall dramatically. Because they held such large positions, the initial complaint alleged, the banks were able to send orders into the market that caused turmoil and benefitted the short position. The alleged manipulation occurred between 2008 and 2010, the lawsuit said.
The amended filing alleges J.P. Morgan caused silver prices to fall 12% in one day, thereby by driving up the value of its short position by $220 million.
The lawsuit also continues to allege that three traders who initially worked together at HSBC remained in close contact even after two of them moved to J.P. Morgan.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903927204576572632689573902.html
===
GRH1 : STRAIGHT BETWEEN THE EYES
jed3
8UP
Below is the post I referred to earlier on today from GRH1, telling that his "jokey post" on a "collective intake of breath within the oil boardrooms of USA" from December was actually real/happened. Have posted the message in full as it's a cracker. Have just read through quite a few of his old ones - brilliant stuff and continued thanks GRH1!
All...
the usual caveats apply please to the post below...
IE I am an uber bull on GKP...
thus my post below will contain very strong bias
and it cannot be looked upon as any form of investment advice
OK...please refer back to THE PRIZE post earlier today
please also refer to my previous posts re satellite images...
and also WORLD ORDER
it is all becoming SO clear
RE THE PRIZE....
Jack Diamonds 'got' the exact reference to Daniel Yergin...
BUT...who is Daniel Yergin?
Well...apart from the 'mere' author of inter alia The Prize...
he is of course one of the greatest STRATEGIC thinkers in the World today
when it comes to GLOBAL energy matters
Hmmm...
Has nobody considered that GKP could have appointed ANY big hitting Firm
to act on their behalf????
IMO...the M&A and advisory market would have beaten a path to their door for such instructions
BUT...and imo it is a very telling 'but' indeed...
they CHOSE to appoint a Firm where Daniel Yergin is active
I posted ages ago about Shaikan being of GLOBAL strategic importance...
and suggested that readers might care to consider oil fields by reference to
OIL STILL IN PLACE
in Shaikan alone we have something of truly astounding Global importance
will there be bids?
will there be competition?
will there be complex deals put fwd?
will the Chinese wish to play?
IMO...yes, all of the above and more....
Rememebr my jokey post in December
about the collective intake of breath within the oil boardrooms of USA etc
being heard from this side of the Atlantic
when they saw the satellite enabled oil images?
well that really was no joke
the importance of what we .. ordinary shareholders....are involved in
should now hit everyone...
holders/traders and commentators alike
STRAIGHT BETWEEN THE EYES
Regards
GRH1
==
Iraq: Don't Mess it Up
Posted on 08 March 2012
Iraq is making progress. It is now pumping out 3 million barrels of oil per day for the first time since 1979, it is about to host the Arab League Summit, and its plan to build 2 million new homes is moving ahead.
So why have shares in Iraq-focused oil shares taken a bashing this week?
Part of the reason is a report from HSBC highlighting the political risk in the country:
"After years of conflict, the Iraqi oil industry has opened for business ... the country has huge reserves ... [but] politics is likely to impair value."
In other words, prosperity is there for the taking if the politicians and public servants don't mess it up.
On a rather different subject, Iraq Business News is delighted to welcome a new member to our Expert Blogger panel: Bob Nottelmann has helping the Iraqi agricultural sector and will write for us on Iraqi agribusiness. You can read his first installment here.
Upper Quartile and AAIB are the ideal partners to guide your business through the complexities of Iraqi life. For more information please contact Gavin Jones or Adrian Shaw.
======
March 8 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp:
* CEO tillerson says company is committed to both kurdish and iraqi oil
developments
* CEO tillerson says says high retail U.S. gasoline price solely due to high
crude oil prices
* CEO tillerson says global market is well supplied with oil currently
* CEO tillerson says shifting drilling in U.S. to liquids-rich plays in
'measured' way
((New York Equities Desk; tel: +1 646 223 6000))
(For more news about Exxon Mobil Corp click here
COPYRIGHT
Copyright Thomson Reuters 2012. All rights reserved.
The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.
http://www.xe.com/news/2012/03/08/2527881.htm?utm_source=RSS&utm_medium=TL&utm_
=========
18:41
Re: Exxon using imaging technology
The Basher
175UP
Hi GRH1,
Got to hand it you - you have generously given information that otherwise would be kept under wraps for the powerful and wealthy to use to their own advantage.
I have spent ten years analysing price movements in relation to where the City money is going, and put into practice my professional "communication" qualifications when listening to people. I crawl over evidence to clear out the "noise" - not knowing anything about geology I was hugely sceptical of your posts as I had no first hand evidence that this kind of imagery was not only valid but also of huge importance.
So today, Rex Tillerson and his crew answered, for me, some very big questions. And you GRH1, I owe you a big drink...!
My shares are unscathed, but my leveraged (Spreadbet) position and all its profit got wiped out by the "dark side" - well, thats what was intended wasnt it? As I had the time to actively manage the account, luckily I only handed back to the company their own money.... unlike some I know who were badly affected by the raid. Some say that if you are leveraged you deserve all the trouble you get, but I do not hold that view - if the playing field was level, and was refereed by an impartial official, it would be a fair game. In sport, people end up in court for match fixing - why is it not the same in the City?
Its time I started a major campaign to put this well and truly in the political spotlight..
Tick up if you would support a campaign to put this in the media spotlight.- I have contacts...!
=========
GKP – TN0000658
[New member (registered in last 30 days)] BlackMarketUnit
1UP
If today’s market is anything to go by it seems the heavy bankroll trading syndicate has lost interest (with Tuesday marking their scramble for the exit), normal market service will now resume.
There’s no longer any clever jewelry inside the spread. So our ferocious algorithm has stopped collecting all the data it was previously collecting.
During this normal service, GKP has already tried and failed to reclaim the 50% fib, a second failure at the 50% fib would see some meaningful trading liquidity on the ask.
This is the first clear trading opportunity since everyone got margined out.
---------------------------------------------
The opportunity is to short from the mid 290’s, it should present itself at round 11:30 this morning, (give or take 20 minutes).
If the opportunity does transpire. Thereafter once three ducks line up (MACD, RSI, and failure of the 20MA on the 15 minute chart) it should fall to 283.
This may very well coincide with the NFP release.
----
Risk Control is dependent on account parameters
====
Author Bah Bah Black Sheep View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 10:22
Subject Name and Shame: DEVIL in the detail View parent message
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 100 times.
Message
Many thanks Robbean for your excellent dissection of the HSBC Broker Note (which is apparently being defended by none other than the 'Director' of their 'Oil and Gas, Global Research' Mr Peter Hitchens):
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AGKP.L&display=discussion&action=detail&id=9401809
For me, the key paragraph from your post is as follows:
"So the $/bbl figures they quote include BOTH the 40% tax discount AND a further 50% reduction to reflect the domestic sales situation. This means that if and when exports resume, HSBC will then attribute $4.66 / bbl post tax, or $7.77 pre-tax."
because this allows us to determine the "Discount Rate Reduction Factor" ('DRRF') that Mr Hitchens has applied. For those wishing to (re-)familiarise themselves with DRRF, it is explained in this post of mine from last December:
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AGKP.L&display=discussion&action=detail&id=9104555
Without boring you all with direct quotes from that post, one of the key findings was that 'DRRF' is totally INSENSITIVE to the price of oil - at least within the range from $75 to $120. I demonstrated how the Cannacord Adams (CA) DRRF value was constant for an oil price of $75 and $100. I demonstrated how tpo's DRRF was constant for an oil price of $100 and $120. The relevance being, that the HSBC DRRF value will also be a constant within this price range (the 'constancy' is a feature of the PSC parameters themselves).
So, we know that HSBC used an oil price of $90, and as determined by Robbean, "HSBC will then attribute $4.66 / bbl post tax, or $7.77 pre-tax". It is now a simple matter to use Spidey's NAV calculator (http://www.navcalculator.com/GKP_NAV.php), enter $90 for 'Oil Price', maintain the known PSC profit of 13%, and determine which value of DRRF yields $7.77 ... as you may have guessed ... this yields .... as near as dammit ... DRRF = 0.666
Nice try BBBS, the exact value is actually DRRF = 0.664
So there you go, there was me being conservative again with my recommendation to use the CA default of DRRF = 0.6185 as detailed in this post:
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AGKP.L&display=discussion&action=detail&id=9281185
I can feel another UP-grade coming on - can't you?
I have in fact since some time considered that the CA Discount numbers must be currently conservative because the CA Note was written in February 2009. Before all of that previous (and on-going) 'QE' jiggery pokery. Before global interest rates descended to an all-time recent low. Before that other BB committed to maintaining such low rates for the foreseeable ... What I'm trying to say is - the CA Note from February 2009 must have certainly made some assumptions about the 'cost of money' - that no longer hold true. So thank you Mr Hitchens, you have provided a good basis for UP-grading to a more appropriate DRRF value.
Spidey, I hope you're still with us. Could you possibly make the following changes to your machine:
- change the default DRRF value from 0.6185 to 0.664
- make the following modifications to the "DRRF (Discount Rate Reduction Factor) in more detail" explanatory notes:
· The default value for DRRF is set to 0.664 as per HSBC Broker Note of March 2012
· > Cannacord Adams February 2009 evaluations of generic Kurdistan PSC's using a Discount Rate of 10% yield a DRRF = 0.6185
· > HSBC Broker Note of March 2012 yields a DRRF = 0.664
The NAV Calculator will of course still remain entirely under User control. Feel free to specify any Oil Price (I maintain that $100 is conservative). And especially for you Mr Hitchens, feel free to type '25' into the "Risk / COS (%)" box.
GLA,
BBBS
P.S. Spidy, I will email you the CA Note from February 2009 as this no longer appears to be available in the 'public' domain. Chopper89x: please can you also email Spidy the HSBC Note. I am sure Spidy will find a way to publish these supporting documents - for ALL to see - directly on the NAV Calculator site.
-
Contract duration effect - BBBS
normde
2UP
Inv48 raised this matter, but I remain unclear as to how the 25 year duration (or is it 30 ?) fits into calculations regarding the overall valuation of GKP. My question is: How much oil is Shaikan likely to produce in 25 years? Of course, if enough wells are drilled, Shaikan could be emptied - but we know that's not going to happen. There will be limits set upon how much oil Kurdistan will be allowed to produce - but with oil running out globally, the levels of production will keep rising, as will the price of oil.
I presume the existing producer will renegotiate the contract terms upon expiry, so this - I presume - must have an influence on present valuation for any T/O offer. Will a predator consider GKP as a 25 year company, based on the PRC, and make a calculation concerning the volume of oil likely to be extracted in that period? - Or, will the key factors in determining a price mainly result from OIP/ RF numbers? Because, if it is the former, then finding more oil will make little difference to the T/O price if the extra is unlikely to be extracted within the duration of the PRC.
BBBS, if you have understanding of this, I would appreciate hearing your view. Also, anyone else - all comments welcome.
This is not a deramp. I have no agenda other than trying to know the truth - so that I (and perhaps others) can be more aware.
Regards,
normde
PS: BBBS - I do believe CJ made valid comments on this, but your own would be most appreciated - to allay any doubts. Thanks.
The Production period last for 20 years with an extension option of 5 years if it is not empty according to the contract, and that the Production period starts when GKP annouce a Commercial Discovery.
IMHO of course
http://www.krg.org/pages/page_blank.asp?lngnr=12&rnr=296&PageNr=54
http://www.krg.org/pages/page_blank.asp?lngnr=12&rnr=296&PageNr=55
=======
Oil & Politics: The Real Situation in Iraq
March 9th, 2012
Daniel J. Graeber
OilPrice.com
March 9, 2012
A delegation from the International Energy Agency spent two days in Baghdad speaking with high-ranking officials in preparation for an end-of-year report on the country’s oil sector. By some estimates, Iraq could hold some of the largest oil reserves in the world and an international auction for oil and natural gas blocks is planned for May. Without a hydrocarbon law, and considering the fractured political system, the IEA’s report may be more about political obstacles than oil potential, however.
Baghdad announced triumphantly this week that oil production increased to more than 3 million barrels per day for the first time in more than 30 years. Exports, the government said, should increase substantially once a new floating oil terminal starts operations later this week. The IEA in December said crude oil production in Iraq could reach an average of 4.36 million bpd by 2016, about half of what Riyadh produces. The agency warned, however, that Iraq’s fractured political system might be as much of an obstacle as anything.
Iraq’s post-invasion political system has never been stable. Tensions in Baghdad flared up when Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki accused his Sunni Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi of terrorism almost as soon as the last American troop left the country in December. Juan Cole, the man behind the influential blog Informed Comment, said the action by Maliki “was part of an effort to marginalize and humiliate his Sunni enemies, and a sign of unwillingness to seek a grand national bargain.”
Iraq may be a democratic country in theory but it certainly isn’t quick on the political front, especially when it comes to passing a long-delayed hydrocarbon law. Cole, a professor of history at the University of Michigan, described Iraqi politics as anything but stable.
“I wouldn’t hold my breath on getting anything accomplished on the oil law,” he said.
Maliki may be able to use his hard-ball tactics in an effort to get his way on things like the federal budget, but that doesn’t necessarily equate to widespread political influence across the rest of the country, said Cole.
Kurdish leaders objected profusely when it looked like Exxon Mobil would be left out of Iraq’s upcoming fourth international auction because of its contracts with the semiautonomous Kurdish government. Deputy Prime Minister Rowsch Nuri Shaways, a lawmaker from the Kurdistan Democratic Party, complained, in a statement, that Baghdad was somehow opposed to “economic openness” and the “promotion of trade.” Baghdad protests that any unilateral deals with the Kurdish government are illegal, though Cole said there isn’t much that the central government can do about it.
“The Iraqi government faces two big problems on petroleum development. It is still too weak to provide security reliably for the Western corporations and their employees,” he said. “And, it is still economically depressed enough to be afraid of being taken advantage of by a bidding process that favors the corporations — causing it to drive so hard a bargain that it has spooked potential investors.”
Iraq could be able to take advantage of its strategic position in the Middle East. Its Turkish neighbors to the north are keen to become an influential energy hub by playing host to some of the most ambitious oil and natural gas pipelines in the world. To Iraq’s south, the Strait of Hormuz transports about 20 percent of the oil traded globally.
“Politically, however, Iraq is landlocked,” said Cole.
Getting a federal budget passed this year might’ve been a temporary political victory for Maliki. Long term, however, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to make any claims to a political mandate in a country that relies so heavily on oil for its federal revenue. Baghdad has tilted at times toward Iran and higher oil prices may embolden the Shiite prime minister’s position. But Iraq might find itself in a geopolitical tug-of-war given Washington’s regional interests.
“Iraq is extremely vulnerable right now,” Cole warned.
The IEA is expected to release its report on Iraq in October as a prelude to its full energy outlook for 2012. While expressing optimism about the prospects for the oil sector in post-war Iraq, IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said politics are getting in the way of broader developments. When asked what he would title the October report from the IEA, Cole just chuckled and said “slow progress.”
This article first appeared on the OilPrice.com website.
===
Exxon pressing forward on KRG, Qurna deals
Exxon Qurna signing Jan25-2010 Vierbuchen Shahristani Bouaziz resized
ExxonMobil Vice President for Upstream Ventures Rick Vierbuchen (center left) and then-Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani (center right) sign a contract for the development of the West Qurna 1 field on Jan. 25, 2010. (BEN LANDO/Iraq Oil Report)
By Ben Van Heuvelen and Staff of Iraq Oil Report
Published March 9, 2012
Faced with an ultimatum from the Iraqi government - to decide between doing business with Baghdad or the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region - ExxonMobil has made its choice: both.
In recent weeks, as the Iraqi government has ratcheted up the pressure, sources say the U.S. government has also made efforts to broker a "freeze" on the Kurdistan deals.
But at a Thursday meeting with financial analysts at the New York Stock Exchange, Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson confirmed that his company intended to ...
======
15:38
Resetting Expectations by Fatigue
Arundallio
25UP
Resetting Expectations by Fatigue
So what’s it all about this frantic volatility again on good news.
The SP today should for all intents and purposes be stable and gently increasing today but that’s not the GKP way. Some might call it irrational but it is far from irrational it’s intentional.
Volume says it all again this share has always been and will continue to be trader heaven. It started at 9.00pm last night when the coordinated Trolls arrived in a three line whip…I posted good news on the way …clearly they had been tipped off an RNS was in the post.
So what is happening and why is it happening?
Well clearly there are a range of day traders that are trading the range with long a short positions but they are not the real players they are simply the beneficiaries of the bigger game which is to Reset Expectations.
PI’s that are investors and I include Accumulators and Institutions took the SP to the heady heights of 450p on the basis of a combination of Exxon Derisking Kurdistan and GKP Fundamentals being recognised on the back of that.
Million Share trades were seen on a daily basis of buys on the way up investor positions have now been taken and most are holding, although some are trading to protect profit and accumulate more shares.
The volume in GKP is so big that I suspect Hedge Funds also to be at play. What we have seen over the last 2 to 3 weeks is the establishment of a giant trading range of 225 to 297p … my goodness what a playground if you have the resources and information to move sentiment along with moving the SP in both directions.
However the biggest game at play at the moment is the attempt to Reset Expectations at Take Over.
When the SP was at 450p with what we know of NAV and OIP our expectations of 1400p plus were becoming tangible defensible and realistic. At this SP entry to the FTSE 100 was a reality when application made.
However at 250p, where it look as if it will stay for a while, these aspirations are appear harder to justify and more importantly the longer this volatility continues on a weekly basis the greater the Investor Fatigue that kicks in.
This combination of Investor Fatigue and attempting to Reset Expectations is what the game is all about. I for one am not playing the game and will continue to understand the True Value and Take Over Strategies at play.
My expectation is weeks of this volatility followed by new Bumper Edition Shaikan RNS following which the real Take Over Run In will start.
As I have said before many times Set Your Own Expectations …..1400p Plus.
Believe…Relax….Ignore the Trolls….Recognise the Trading Games….Recognise You are Being Played….Hold….Get Rich
===
03/13/2012 | 11:43am
Total In Discussions To Enter Iraqi Kurdistan - CEO
http://www.4-traders.com/TOTAL-4717/news/Total-In-Discussions-To-Enter-Iraqi-Kurdistan-CEO-14214570/
Total SA (TOT) is in talks to enter Iraqi Kurdistan, the head of the French oil giant said Tuesday, the latest major to disclose concrete steps to enter the autonomous region.
The news come after the U.S.'s Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) recently signed a deal to enter the region, rebuffing opposition from Iraq's central government which states the Kurdish deals are illegal.
Speaking to reporters on the side of an International Energy Forum summit conference in Kuwait, Total's Chief Executive Christophe de Margerie said "we are discussing" an entry. "There is nothing done yet."
"Definitely we will hold those discussions with owners of existing blocks," he said, adding any move would have to be vetted by the autonomous region's government.
-By Benoit Faucon, Dow Jones Newswires, +44 77 601 777 36; benoit.faucon@dowjones.com
======
ROLLS BUILDING
COURT 19
Before MR JUSTICE POPPLEWELL
Wednesday 14 March 2012
At 10:30
2010-1517 Excalibur Ventures LLC v Texas Keystone Inc (also known as "Texas Keystone Inc")
I presume it's a Case Review in preparation for expected presentation of Expert Witness Statements?
-
15:35
Buy Re: Reposting! Ceraweek and Kurd Video
TRINDERM
15UP
I hope you watched it.
http://ceraweek.rmxpres.com/webcast/data/Cera20124EFHI03061420/main.htm#
First 10 minutes and last 10 minutes.
At the end........... 45,000,000,000 barrels is CONSERVATIVE. "Lost 2 years tring to negotiate a common ground on policy with IOG, We would be close to 700,000 bopd if we hadn't"
ANYONE STILL DOUBT THEIR WILL TO GET THIS DONE AND THE SUPER'S IN? No. Didn't think so.
There is a video here with Hawrami talking about production, geopolitics, pipelines, selling............... be quiet and watch it!
http://ceraweek.rmxpres.com/webcast/data/Cera20124EFHI03061420/main.htm#
Q and A at the end. 2,000,000 bopd via Turkey and asap.
mt
========
15:26
FAO Bonobo77
Texas Tea 2
11UP
I am informed that you subscribe to the below journal. I think it could be a very interesting article referenced below, and would be grateful if you have further detail you could share:
US Vice-President Joe Biden is said to have asked Iraqi PM Nouri Al-Maliki during their telephone conversation yesterday (March 12, 2012) to suspend his differences with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) over the investments in the oil and gas sectors in the KRG-controlled area in northern Iraq. The following 432-word report sheds light on the telephone conversation between both men and tells what about Al-Maliki’s reaction to Biden’s request.
http://www.tacticalreport.com/view_news/Iraq%3a_Maliki_Biden_and_KRG_oil_issue/2548
=======
From Advfn
bobobob5 - 13 Mar'12 - 14:59 - 179486 of 179496
Ghawar has a huge, tilted acquifer below it. GKP are reported to have said that they believe there is an acquifer below Shaikan, fed from the mountains some considerable distance away. This was discussed on here some weeks ago. It was also reported, very early on on the drilling of Shaikan, that a special manometer (pressure gauge) had been brought in from the US to assess pressure between Shaikan-1 and another hole. It was later said by GKP (and ridiculed by some...) that tidal effects had been measured in Shaikan. The CEO of another E&P told me that, some distance away, they had found inexplicable pressure changes in their well - but his geologists had not considered that the Moon was involved, their theory was that the temperature difference between day and night was causing their pressure variations, via some kind of expansion. Which seems extremely improbable to me, because the subsurface temperature is constant when you go down a few feet (and then you get the natural temperature gradient). He was stunned when I mentioned the Moon.
The OWC is important because IMO the geology in this area is NOT UNDERSTOOD.
Re the trolls welcome them like a Elephant allows those parasitic birds to pick off dead hide etc, there here cause GKP is a goer.
===========
Author Tim Huckle View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 15:09
Subject Re: Shareprice / Precogz rubbish / Spike... View parent message
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 14 times.
Message
A word about ‘spikeyDT’
As one of our most prolific bulletin board posters, it was inevitable that Darren Turgel’s (aka SpikeyDT) and my paths would cross.
It’s true to say we’ve had many complaints about his posts but equally there has been feedback about the usefulness of his news/research links which get around 20,000 clicks a day. Clicks to these links don’t bring any money or benefits to Interactive Investor, however they do provide a service to users that I’ve found difficult to quantify beyond the bit.ly figures I’ve seen firsthand.
It’s clear Darren’s motivation to create an AIM-focused news and research ‘feed’ was something he was going to do with or without Interactive Investor. At my request he and I met and discussed the importance of respecting copyright and that he should either be providing a feed or participating in discussion boards with his own opinions; but not both.
He has since focused on news and I am now soliciting feedback from a spectrum of users as to how best present this type of information, if at all, as the boards are perhaps not the right area to do so.
I have investigated Darren Turgel / spikeyDT’s personal and business background, I have analysed his posts, log files, the sources of his upticks and overall posting patterns. I am satisfied that his motivation turned from hobbyist 'karma seeker' to someone that recognised he might be able to build a brand/service out of it. We’re not the only social network he’s explored, many of you will be following him on his Twitter feed.
During our second meeting Darren introduced me to Precogz – www.precogz.com a project he'd been exploring with others - and for the last month I’ve been following the trends and trigger points suggested in what was essentially an alpha version of the newsletter that our sister site SharePrice is now sending to its registered user base as a trial. SharePrice has always been our brand to try new things and that’s what we’re doing for the next 2 weeks following which I’ll be surveying over 15,000 of our users to establish whether it was any use to them or not.
If you are a SharePrice user and no longer wish to receive this particular trial then the link has been available in the opening paragraphs. The option to unsubscribe completely from ANY further email from SharePrice is provided at the bottom of the email and, as has always been the case, will invalidate your login. I'll add both unsubscribe options more clearly from tomorrow.
If anyone would like to discuss further then do please feel free to drop me an email to tim[at]iii.co.uk
========
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@ContrarianUK
High volatility in GkP, weak start so picked up a few more at 231p. I thought xcite was a roller coaster! http://t.co/jQhN4jb4
about 8 hours ago
@ContrarianUK
New post - Greek bonds start trading a a steep discount. http://t.co/jQhN4jb4
about 22 hours ago
@ContrarianUK
New post - Plenty of action in AIM oil and gas today on Xcite and Gulf Keystone. http://t.co/EiDquR9K
about a day ago
@ContrarianUK
According to the gossip on BB's xcite's rig is on its way out of Macduff . Difficult to check because of transponder black out. Contrarianuk
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Main | Greek bonds start trading at at steep discount »
Position built up on Gulf Keystone fall
Tuesday, March 13, 2012 at 8:30AM
With Gulf Keystone Petroleum falling below 230p after the open, another 5 percent drop, I have been able to establish a good position with some buys.
GKP is now down £2 from its peaks a couple of weeks ago when frenzied take over speculation was rife. Another example.of the transfer of shares from over leveraged private investors to institutions who are looking ahead to the full FTSE listing. I expect continued heavy volatility with stop loss hunters doing their worst!
I see that the iii bulletin board is even more full of rogues than the Xcite one!!
Update on Tuesday, March 13, 2012 at 12:00PM by Registered CommenterContrarian Investor UK
Yeehah. Now 270p and rising. Taken quite a bit off the table now and letting a few ride.
AuthorContrarian Investor UK | Comment2 Comments | Share ArticleShare Article Email ArticleEmail Article
tagged Taggulf keystone in CategoryGulf Keystone
Reader Comments (2)
Contrarian
GKP and XEL are being played aggressively that surggest large market participation,both stocks offer the potential for 100 percent upside from this level if the private invester can survive the game.
March 13, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterAcap
Agreed - both GKP & XEL are "in play", with all the good and bad aspects that entails. I think that XEL may have a good chance of 100 - 150% upside, whilst I am confident of 200 - 300% upside in GKP, based on current prices.
You did well to get in at 230p.
Suggest a look at XTR, which is another for the brave, but with enormous upside potential.
=====
Ex can't tell judge what there costs are
-
In court now
Elikkos Georghiades
14UP
Further to the point I made below, if excalibur assert that they could raise the money within 21 days but not be able to put up 70% of it now, (as the judge) I would need to hear submissions from all sides and satisfy myself that the basis upon which such funds could be raised is realistic, i.e. there are sufficient assets / access to liquid funds which could be accessed within the stipulated time for costs to be met in the eventuality of such an order being made. This would incidentally have the potential of exposing what was said earlier that approaches were currently being made in the city to obtain funds.
I am a little surprised that our counsel has not urged the judge to adopt this course. Its a little like asking persons who are willing to stand as sureties to secure a defendants bail in the sum of £50,000 to provide proof that they have the funds or access to them in the event of the defendant absconding.
Elikkos
-
Excaliber
theperpetualoptimist
62UP
My contact has contacted a GKP director and made him aware of the approach that I outlined in my earlier post today.
We don't know what has been done with the infomation within GKP but I would be very surprised if the GKP legal team had not now also been made aware of the approach.
As others have said, this is clear evidence of Excaliber casting around at the last minute to come up with the security costs that they are highly likely to be asked to provide.
A point that will be considered by any institution which considers funding the Excaliber claim is that in the English legal system if a third party funds a claim and the claimant looses then the winning side can reclaim from the third party not only the costs already provided by the third party but can persue the third party for any other outstanding costs.
So to put that in "City speak", there is no stop loss possible if you fund someone else's legal action and they lose. Your loss could exceed your initial stake.
Trivia
theperpetualoptimist
20UP
A bit of trivia while we are waiting for Oilman63 and B19400 to complete their excellent day's work.
The judge today is Mr Justice Popplewell who was appointed to the High Court bench in October of last year.
But lest you think that he has no knowledge of this case, the judge who presided over the last Excaliber hearing, the judge who was so critical of the Excaliber case, Mrs Justice Gloster is his step mother!
I think this has been mentioned today but it's worth repeating.
TPO
TPO '
-
Court today
darsave
46UP
Just scanned some of the posts on this, as was out of the office earlier.
This seems like an application for security for Costs which is where a defendant(GKP) applies to the court and says that they have a valid defence to a case and that they are concerned that if they win there will be no funds from which the Plaintiff (Exclaibur) would be able to pay the Costs awarded to GKP.
The court is asked to order that the plaintiff provide security for costs, this would be a sum of money lodged to an account which can be drawn down at the end of the case to pay the defendants Costs.
The amount that is ordered to be lodged is not the full estimate of what GKPs costs would be but a proportion (normally) I see 70% mentioned, but from my understanding of UK law (limited since I practice in Ireland, but they have very similar rules) it is at the discretion of the judge, can be 50%, two thirds or even 100%.
For the avoidance of doubt it is only GKPs costs that would be covered ie the amount spent by excalibur does not come in to the equation except for it being used as a gauge to see if the GKP estimate is similar to what Excalibur have incurred.
On the question of the Third Party Funder (ie the financial backer of Excalibur), once that funder is put on notice by the legal team for Excalibur that an order for costs could be made against it, at the end of the case GKP who will of course win can apply for a Third Party Funder order directly against the backer, whose identity would have to be disclosed then, but unlikely that it would be disclosed before that, I think.
Hope that helps
-
WisdomSeeker
14UP
'If not, and if, let's say, Excal lose but dive into Ch11 protection, GKP would be stuck with its own costs....not a good outcome, even if GKP had the moral highground?'
That's why we are looking for costs up front before we incur the major part of them.
-
B19400
65UP
Judge minded to award 3m for Texas and 6m for Gulf within 21 days.
-
oilman63
59UP
This is not going well for Excalibur - judge still summing up, Excal man is not happy. Looks like he has just had the wind knocked out of him. Hearing over
--
16:03
Re: In court now
wokinpark
8UP
imho, i would think that GKP know who are funding Ex. i work in the property investment industry in London and you get to know pretty quickly who is funding who, for prop acquisitions, whether it is foreign, private, bank, private equity, etc and not much escapes the gossip that goes around. i assume it is the same in the oil industry.
Lukoil to Buy West Qurna- 2 in may
duffs55
1UP
Alekperov: Lukoil To Buy Statoil Out Of West Qurna-2 In May
Written By Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen
Published March 14, 2012
Dow Jones Newswires
Russian oil producer OAO Lukoil Holdings (LKOH.RS) plans to buy a 15% stake in the West Qurna-2 oil project in Iraq from Norway's Statoil (STO), the Interfax news agency reports Wednesday citing Lukoil's Chief Executive Vagit Alekperov.
Statoil has said previously that it seeks to sell its 15% stake in the Iraqi project.
Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2012/03/14/alekperov-lukoil-to-buy-statoil-out-west-qurna-2-in-
======
Author PJM4GKP View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 16:37
Subject Re: Analyst MOL Buy rating View parent message
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 15 times.
Message
amendment on below now i have found exactly what MOL Fully diluted interest in AB and SH is...
AB = 80% or 51.2% FDWI
SH = 20% or 13,6% FDWI
51.2% of AB 2.4 BBOIP = 1.23 BB OIP
13.6% of SH 10.5 BBOIP = 0.772 mb OIP
A total of net OIP of 2 BBOIP worth $2 Billion USD not 4.02 BBOIP as i put below..
fantastic even better, that makes GKP net OIP of 8.1 BBOIP worth $8 Billion USD without any OIP upgrade, but I really do think we can double SH OIP after recent OP news and BBBS comments so lets include the OIP upgrade on SH only like below, will give GKP 13 BBOIP or using MOL analyst circa $13 Billion USD......£8.5 Billion Pound or 1000p a share (risked) or 2000p (unrisked)
I feel much better now....
............................................................
In his estimate, the Shaikan and Akri Bijeel blocks may be worth c.USD 2bn, or HUF 4,600/share (or USD 2.1/bbl risked NPV) for MOL, assuming 930m bbl unrisked resources (fully diluted), a 50% risk weight and a USD 95/bbl Brent price
AB has a P50 of 2.4 BBOIP, MOL has a WI of 80% = 1.92 BBOIP mean...
SH has a P50 of 10.5 BBOIP, MOL has a WI of 20% = 2.1 BBOIP mean
I am not 100% sure how the analyst got to 930 mbls of risked resource but we know that MOL have OIP for SH & AB of 4.02 BB OIP..( that is gross not sure what their net would be)
The MOL analyst assumes a worth to MOL of $2 Billion USD for 930 m bbls "risked resources" fully diluted with a 50% risk, so it would be $4 Billion USD unrisked...
...................................................................
GKP have a net of 5.67 BB for SH @ 54% DWI
1.52 BB for SA @ 80% DWI,
0.307 mb for AB @ 12.8 DWI
0.600 mb for BB @ 40% DWI
Total of 8.097 net resource to GKP, lets call it 8.1 BBOIP..
GKP have double that of MOL who have 4.02 BBOIP
So very simplistically using the MOL analyst GKP are worth $4 Billion USD (50% risked) unrisked $8 Billion USD......
GKP think Shaikan is nearer double OIP @ 20 BB so that gives us another 5 BBOIP DWI to GKP, add that and you are over $6 Billion (risked) or $12 Billion (unrisked), upgrade on OIP coming soon!
or £3.9 Billion SP @ circa 500p or 1000p (unrisked)
Not including any upside for AB, BB or SA and not including the recent Aqra/ Bekhme anticline of 3.9 BBOIP..........(not proven comercial yet)
Very simplistic and I am only using todays MOL analyst as an exsample of how underpriced we look at times....
PS, I have not used MOL's OIP as fully diluted because I am not sure if their 80% of AB 0r 20% of SH is fully diluted? if its not then that makes 500p (risked) and 1000p (unrisked) per GKP share look even more under valued..
==========
: In court now
Elikkos Georghiades
12UP
"Lets ask our legal expert Mr Eilkkos Georghiades, hopefully he confirms 21 days is 21 days.
over to you Eilkkos"
Yes I concur.....though I must stress my legal expertise is confined to criminal law.
Elikkos (P.S. My fee note is in the post!....might as well live up to the jaundiced view that most people here have of lawyers.)
===
says it all
MAW1664
40UP
Don't forget this part,
GKP also says it gave Excalibur the opportunity to participate after November 2007, but it could not raise the money for a signing bonus.
Harvey Rands at Memery Crystal, which is acting for GKP, said:
“Excalibur refused to sign a contract with Gulf. After the Kurdish petroleum law was published,
Excalibur realised and accepted it could not participate in a contract.
The oil minister required Gulf to join with a very substantial partner, Mol.
Excalibur was offered the chance to farm in but could not raise the necessary funds.“
...................................................................................................................................................
maw
says it all
blooglasgow
21UP
In the lawsuit, it emerges that GKP, Texas Keystone and Excalibur were all named on a draft bid for Shaikan – four months before the final deal.
GKP says the draft was shown to Kurdistan’s oil minister in July 2007 but the government did not want Excalibur to take part and made clear it was not eligible.
Maybe they can sue the KRG
=====
Re: hunters and/or farmers
MikeyAdmin
11UP
It is a necessity of the Contract that Works are done in the order they come up.
If GKP had not started the Pipeline in accordance to the Contract timing, they would have been in breach of the Contract so in Default, and could lose their License Blocks
Please check and read in detail the GKP contracts.
http://www.krg.org/pages/page.asp?lngnr=12&rnr=296&PageNr=1
===
PAINFUL SHOES- GRH
leesbillbob
11UP
I'm sorry but I beg to differ on two points.I am not a legal expert however I have found that paying good ones has kept me out of jail.
The problem I have is twofold.The whole exercise in bad taste occurred during Christmas season 2010.I recall it well;
Case filed by nobodies inc.No merit,no chance but enough "mud" to panic PI's and trigger stop losses.Unscrupulous buyers take opportunities presented like vultures on fresh kill.They have obviously been perched above the fray waiting for the news to trigger the reaction(on both sides of the pond.
Nobodies inc. paid to trigger stop losses;not for any other reasons-hey mercenaries and vultures gotta eat! Nice coordinated effort.For those who sold out-feeling cheated?
Above was my first post back then
These people put a plan in motion to rip off"Joe Average".
The second post back then brings us to the present day.
Unscrupulous (smells like GS) vultures pay clown to file lawsuit.Like vultures they wait for news to hit and voila-purchase 8 million shares at discount.I have seen talk of iceberg orders before;these vultures were waiting for events to unfold.Cash in hand.Events Orchestrated."Reputable law firm"(oxymoron)paid for.
Stop losses triggered ,spread betters lose,nervous PI's overreact.This is how they 'do business'-the dreamstealers.
How do you fight back.Keep gathering info on REX.Follow the money .Find out who orchestrated events.
Which brings home the subject of painful shoes.
My painful shoes have steel tips.I am quite sure they are indeed painful.Time to get them polished.I recall the pain inflicted by the dreamstealers pulling the strings.We live in a world where white collar criminals pay a small fine and avoid legal punishment.I want to know who.
=======
PAINFUL SHOES
investor48
31UP
Hi All,
A word of thanks to Oilman and B19400 for their painstaking efforts.Now this will appear to be a vexatious litigation and with Excalibur using the financial system to go around town soliciting support as per TPO's post,GKP may have the legal right to get the court to disclose who Excalibur backer's are.
GKP must also have the right to counter claim against the backer's for supporting a frivolous suit wasting GKP's management time and putting all PI's of GKP under unnecessary duress!
GKP may not want to waste time in claiming against Rex as i am sure he has no money for GKP to claim against but now that they have backers GKP has every right to make a counter claim!These backer's could be financial institutions that have probably taken a short position on GKP and using the Excalibur suit to induce damage on GKP's SP.
As a result,GKP may have the right to get the court to disclose Excalibur's backers.I am not a legal person but for all those on this board that are part of the legal fratenity,it will be useful to think if GKP has a case for a counterclaim that will see the backers of Excalibur running for cover!!
Best wishes to all
==
Rock on GKP!
Texas Tea 2
30UP
We've had every smart @rse in the world, from the FT gonads((=An organ in animals that produces gametes, especially a testis or ovary.)), to T-Rex Wempen, the Hong Kong and Shanghai double-accounters, and even the Elena Scratchitov boiler room five, trying to derail this loco-motive, but we're strong, we're long. and we're going NOWHERE 'till TK sings!
And with what Tony did for us today, and the FSA finally sitting up and taking notice, today feels great!
What a team. Thanks everyone (except the trolls of course - are they still there?)
Early start remember!
===
16:16
1 min management course
osiros
27UP
GKP TAKE NOTE
Early one morning a man is getting into the shower just as his wife is getting out, she's just wrapping a towel around her when the doorbell rings.
She wife runs downstairs.
When she opens the door, there stands Bob, the next-door neighbour.
Before she says a word, Bob says, 'I'll give you £800 to drop that towel.'
After thinking for a moment, the woman drops her towel and stands naked in front of Bob, after a few seconds, Bob hands her £800 and leaves.
The woman wraps back up in the towel and goes back upstairs.
When she gets to the bathroom, her husband asks, 'Who was that?'
'It was Bob the next door neighbor,' she replies.
'Great,' the husband says, 'did he say anything about the £800 he owes me?'
Moral of the story:
If you share critical information pertaining to progress, credit and risk with your shareholders in plenty of time, you may be in a position to prevent avoidable exposure.
========
Author cumingtonite1 View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 15:23
Subject Gulf 3 - Excalibur 0: But the games not over...
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 42 times.
Message
Interesting debate on legal challenge. When considering impact on share price worth considering
- The developments so far:
Round 1: Excalibur's Aim: Injunction freezing 30% of GKP's assets. Result - No injunction. Application later described as "vexatious".
Round 2: Excalibur's Aim: A stay of proceedings before the English Court (which they had started purely in an attempt to obtain the above injuction); Arbitration proceedings before a NY Court (which would take up to 3 years).
Result - Proceedings ordered to continue before English Court. All other proceedings barred. Excalibur to pay costs of £170,000.
Round 3: Excalibur's Aim: Ruling that no security necessary, Plaintiff's costs to be limited to £2million, Gulf companies to be represented by senior junior (as opposed to QC) Texas Keystone's representation to be reduced to status of "watching brief". Any security to be paid over a period of seven months.
Result - Security for costs of £9.5million within 21 days (Gulf companies costs include QC, TK fully represented). 21 days to pay £170,000 earlier costs.
- And the possible near-term outcomes:
i. Excalibur raise and lodge the £9.5million with the Court and pay the £170,000. If this happens then we return to status quo as of every day prior to yesterday (this hearing was unknown to the market). Prior to yesterday all assumed that Excalibur had, as they and GKP put it "a backer with deep pockets". In short very little would have changed. We already knew that they were paying millions of pounds for Clifford Chance and counsel to represent them and that they would be liable for GKP costs if they lose, which were always going to be substantial.
ii. Excalibur unable to raise money in 21 days. I don't need to spell out the outcome if this happens. And a very pleaseing outcome it would be too ... (sorry make that 20 days, if I used smileys I would use one here).
The litigation so far has therefore gone very well from Gulf's point of view, and very badly for excalibur (which will hopefuly not help the confidence of their backers). If TPO's post of yesterday is correct and they are desperately trying to raise cash in the city then this could be over very soon indeed (we don't for example know whether Clifford Chance and QC have had their payment on account, if they have not then they'll be off like a rat up a drain).
But... and here's where I try to be balanced (not easy having been a shareholder for 4 years) it is not right, as some on here repeatedly state, that the substantive claim has been described as vexatious. It has not. Nor is the lodgeing of a security in any way a reflection of the weakness of the claimants case (it is however a reflection of the Court's opinion of their ability to pay, hence no security lodged by Gulf or Texas Keystone).
It's going well, the score is Gulf Keystone 3 - Excalibur 0, but the games not over.
=======
Author WisdomSeeker View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 14:52
Subject Re: Excalibur Court Case
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 39 times.
Message
Wisdom Seeker,
GKP release very little details about this court case so it is difficult to make a case for GKP winning or losing.
..............all the information that you need is out there, and no more can be provided whilst the case is ongoing, obviously.
What does seem significant is that Excalibur can raise a large cash sum and have backers.
......wrong, they clearly are struggling to raise the money.
This makes me think that this has a chance of reaching court.
.........unlikely.
Looking at the chart there has been a lot of money taken out of GKP in the past few weeks.
...........and put in.
My view is that approaching the court case the SP will drop further as investors protect capital or profits.
........unlikely.
Now that it is clear that investors should find out in 21 days if Excalibur are able to proceed will the SP rise or fall on the RNS update regarding this matter?
Is Excalibur priced in?
...........yes.
Or is Excalibur dropping out priced in?
............no.
What I find interesting is that the Texas Keystone costs appear to be funded by the shareholders (us ).
As this is privately held by the Kozel family should this not be defended by them?
...........? They are not funded by GKP......that's why they have had costs awarded.
Is this a court case between Texas Keystone and Excalibur? With the backers being GKP for Texas Keystone and an unknown backer for Excalibur?
.......do some research.
Could this litigation be responsible for the difficulty recruiting a new Non Executive Director and the delay to the Main Market admission document?
.........no. Look at the credentials of the two new NEDs recruited recently.
GKP did not discuss ETAMIC at investor presentations and they also will not discuss Excalibur.
.......they can't whilst the case is ongoing.
Very little transparency here.
The COO and the CFO sell shares on a regular basis.
...........completely untrue. Look at the RNS announcements. Reported for a deliberately misleading statement.
=============
Question
Kandymans1
10UP
Q Did any directors sell at high of 450p.?
A. No .
Wonder why ?
Matty Miller
10UP
We now have 2 companies (Total & Videocon Industries) who are openly looking for acreage in Kurdistan. Rumours of Exxon talking to GKP by the Independent. World's best estate agent on board. None of our II's have sold any shares despite the high volumes over the past 3 months. We have 6 drills currently turning trying to find water not oil lol
Why would they sell?
=========
KRG - latest
kilwhang
7UP
Erbil, Kurdistan - (KRG.org) Iraq - Oil exports from the Kurdistan Region in Iraq have been averaging 90,000-100,000 barrels per day in 2012, from fields at Taq Taq, Tawke, Khormor and Khurmala.
However, the Ministry of Oil spokesman in Baghdad has made repeated claims that only 65,000 barrels per day are being exported from the Kurdistan Region. He claims that the federal government is suffering daily financial losses as a result.
If the Oil Ministry’s claims are correct, this means that between 25,000-35000 bpd are being lost in the process of SOMO (the State Oil Marketing Organisation) receiving oil from the Kurdistan Regional Government and taking it to market. The KRG believes that this discrepancy should be investigated immediately in case somebody is creaming off the difference between the oil received and the oil sold.
Responsibility for any shortfall in federal revenues from KRG oil exports lies fully with the Ministry of Oil and the federal government in Baghdad for failing to meet their obligations and honour their payment commitments to the KRG.
During negotiations for the 2012 Iraq federal budget, the government in Baghdad asked the KRG to commit to export levels of 150,000 bpd. The KRG instead offered to export 175,000 bpd provided that payments to contractors were honoured without interruption.
This has not happened. No payment has been made by the federal government since May 2011. It owes the KRG more than $1billion for revenues accrued in 2011. Furthermore, not a single dollar has been received for exports in 2012.
The 175,000 bpd target is possible and the Region could even increase to 250,000 bpd, but only if the federal government honours its payment agreements. Otherwise, even the 90,000-100,000 barrels per day currently being exported will decline and eventually cease.
http://www.krg.org/articles/detail.asp?rnr=223&lngnr=12&smap=02010100&anr=43406
========
Kurdish government issues oil threat to Baghdad
(0)|| |
Published: March. 16, 2012 at 8:02 AM
AdvertisementERBIL, Iraq, March 16 (UPI) -- The semiautonomous Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq called on the Iraqi government to investigate what it says is a discrepancy in oil exports.
The KRG says three fields in its territory have produced, on average, 95,000 barrels of oil per day. The government in Erbil, however, says Baghdad is claiming 65,000 bpd is exported from the Kurdish region.
"The KRG believes that this discrepancy should be investigated immediately in case somebody is creaming off the difference between the oil received and the oil sold," the government said in a statement.
Baghdad, the KRG states, has complained that it is losing out on oil revenue. Erbil claims Baghdad isn't honoring financial commitments to the Kurdish government.
The government said Baghdad hasn't made a payment since May 2011 and owes Erbil about $1 billion.
The KRG said the region could increase its exports to around 250,000 bpd but only if Baghdad honors its payment agreements.
"Otherwise, even the 90,000-100,000 barrels per day currently being exported will decline and eventually cease," it warned.
The International Energy Agency said it was reviewing Iraq's energy sector as part of a publication expected later this year. The IEA warned political disputes in the country could handicap oil expectations.
Read more: http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2012/03/16/Kurdish-government-issue
====
Re: From Advfn
Elikkos Georghiades
90UP
I am not sure whether the "5 professor" is indeed a "professor" , but if he is, his expertise is certainly not in the legal field. With respect to him, his entire legal "opinion" and assessment of the ramifications of the the judgement on the legal validity of PSC's is completely erroneous and baseless.
Indeed he really ought to practice what he preached, namely "DYOR if you really want to acquire proper knowledge." Had he done so and read the factual account as set out in the detailed judgement he would have realised that far from challenging " the very contract by which exploration license was awarded to GKP " his action is based on and assumes the validity of the PSC. The essence of Excalibur's claim against the defendants is "dishonesty", and not the validity of PSC. Indeed Excalibur could not have brought the action if that was truly the basis of its claim.
Therefore the courts judgement has absolutely no bearing on the legal validity of PSC's and contrary to his less than learned opinion, there is no basis for Baghdad deriving any comfort from a judgement going against the defendants.
I have spent a lot of time reading the judgement, and I am too tired to provide a more detailed response right now.If anyone would like me to provide one please ask and I will try (no promises) to provide one, some time between tomorrow and the weekend.
Elikkos
=====
Author nest of rampers View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted Thursday 22:08
Subject From Advfn
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 35 times.
Message
5professor - 15 Mar'12 - 22:02 - 180761 of 180761
I refer to my post 176397 and express my gratitude for kind comments of some of the posters. Some have queried my assessment on Excalibur and oil price.Wisdom dictates that I should not get embroiled in arguments, due to lack of time , but the decency demands that I should answer i.e.walk the walk as put in by a poster.
First of all as stated in my post above,Exxon did decide to stay in Kurdistan,but I take no credit because that was the only logical business decision it could have made.
On Excalibur,a poster said that most companies have ongoing litigation but that does not deter buyers. My understanding is that Excalibur has challenged
the very contract by which exploration license was awarded to GKP and it was excluded from.This goes to the very root of the PSC and no company will buy GKP
until the contract is legally upheld in U.K. where GKP's shares are traded.
In fact the court's decision in favour of GKP will assist the Kurdish govt. in its stand that the contracts are legal under Iraqi Law, because that point may crop up in the case.I therefore stand by my statement.
As you know ten days have been set aside for the trial in October 2012 which would mean huge costs for the parties, approximately 20 million pounds.
Lord Justice Popplewell ( Justice is not his first name but it is a part of his legal calling )has ordered Excalibur to provide security of costs for 9.3 million pounds to cover likely costs, including costs to date, for the whole case. It is quite normal where the claimant is a corporate body with insufficient assets to cover defendants' costs irrespective of merits of the case.The security need not be cash, disposable assets or a guarantee by someone
with disposable assets of the amount indicated,can be provided. However,costs of the security of costs application and hearing must be met by the ordered date. It is separate from 9.3 million pounds.If secuity is not provided by 4 April,GKP will put in an application for stike out of the claim and there will be a court hearing for that.
Although the case is complicated, nonetheless until proven otherwise, we have to accept Tod Kozzel's assurance that GKP and Texas Keystone have a good case
and everything has been done properly. If any skulduggery surfaces in the court,the contract valid in law,could be declared illegal for being wrongly made. This will give Iraqi Govt. huge ammunition to attack the PSCs on the basis of corruption and declare them illegal. A lot is riding on the case, and in the absence of documentary proof, Todd Kozel and other officers' honesty and integrity will be attacked.If any skeletons in his cupboard come to light,
leaving aside Class Action by GKP investors,Ashley Kozel, his ex-wife , will
go for ? and display them in the Lithuanian club he frequents,due to diminution
of divorce settlement assets( GKP shares ).
For the same reason some posters conspiracy theory that Todd Kozel was a party to deliberate shorting of shares so that institutions can buy them cheaply,is silly and not on. Your imagination is running amuck and you must bring it under control,in order to benefit from your investment. Don't do yourself dis-service by posting/disseminating fictitious or untrue facts on the bb like a poster who said an Australian friend told him that in the past panick sale , the shares from Singapore went to America, when it was a physical impossibility because American market opens well after Singapore closes and in fact the yanks also were selling in U.S.A and here.
That brings me to wild guesses on the bb of GKP's present value being 18 pounds to 63 pounds.Stockmarket in its valuation does not give credit for what might happen. It lives in the present and looks to the future it can see on the horizon and takes notice of it.The present applicable band for oil price of $75 to $100 is based on 2009/2011 long term contracts, and the actual price
will depend upon whether the crude is sour ( high in sulphur ) or sweet, and its grade/viscosity ( light,intermediate or heavy ) and this is further complicated by various benchmarks and location of Commodities market ( there are about 52 and even Ethiopa has got one )and the energy centres like Nymex, European Petroleum Exchange and Tomco. An oil trader told me couple of years ago that oil from a Kurdish field- I cannot remember the name - was so high in sulphur that in the hot season it was burning at the well head and needed to be watered down with extra cost.Furthermore, the price also depends upon whether the sale contract is CIf or FOB. It is possiblt that Iraqi Ministry of Oil ( IMOL) got $108 per barrel but one does not know whether it was Iraqi port delivery or door delivery.Moreover the govt. owns the pipeline and $108 was inclusive of pipeline transit tariff and security cost.
HSBC in its NAV of 560p per share has taken oil price of $90 per barrel- using 75-100 dollar band - whereas Canacoord has used 2008/2009 oil price band of $50 to $75 in its NAV.Both have discounted 50% for market and geopolitical risks i.e 30% for market ( 20% would have sufficed because GKP is not in doldrums and to leave out 30% for the next man - takeover party- is too much )and 20% for geopolitical in case contracts become invalid or GKP does not get paid for exported oil ( unecessary because the contracts are valid and the oil is being exported and a new pipeline directly connecting to Ceyhan in Turkey is being built). They have thus after 50% discount to NAV arrived at the target price of 280p and 220p respectively.
Stockmarket acts on knowns being knowns and unknowns being unknowns , until they become knowns or appear to be knowns, so by constantly guessing that Exxon and Sinopec ( now Total and Indians) are going to bid for GKP soon,you have handled a loaded gun which has enabled the analysts and the press to just pull the trigger and shoot you in the foot A dilligent perusal of HSBC report would have shown 30% discount from NAV of 560p i.e.168p was made as a takeover premium buyer will have to pay- NAV included takeover premium and that is normal because a company will not acquire a business for its ful value. As such target price before takeover should be 560-168= 392p and that is the yardstick market will use in trading on the stock market. The shares therefore at 280p or so are very cheap and that is the fact you should be drumming home on the BB. If you want a takeover price of full NAV i.e. 560p plus a premium you will have to, by in-putting informative material on BB ,persuade the readers - the silent majority- to buy GKP shares and push the price up.Otherwise the City will accept 560p as a good takeover price.The institutions have not only got the number of shares shown on the stock market disclosure but also in nominee and discretionary accounts with the brokers,banks and trusts etc.Furthermore brokers also act in advisory capacity to rich clients and will advise 560p as a fair price.That is the reason Tod Kozel was hoping that PIs will stay the course.
Initial rise in GKP shares was due to re-rating resulting from upgrading of reserves mean figure to 10 billion barrels. In my NAV I have taken 30% recovery factor and after allowing for infrastruture etc costs and applying $5 per barrel net profit, arrived at NAV of 569p.However by shouting about takeover being imminent for 12 pounds per share to god knows what, you invited special funds of banks and hedgies to enter the market and push the price further up, suck in poor PIs, and thus enabled these vultures to sell out and crash the sp. There is no takeover in the offing not only because of Excalibur case , but also what Tillerson of Exxon said ie. that for acquisitions Exxon is looking for synergies, implying it needs to prove up its Kurdish prospects before it considers acquisitions in Kurdistan. Total is not interested in GKP,
it is in talks with Kurdish government for Pulkhana and another block surrendered by Sharman Petroleum.Reliance wants to sell its own block next door to GKP - can't bear the infrastruture and drilling costs.
So wise up and plug the intrinsic value of GKP in current sp to fulfill your dreams. Don't lose the cause - proper price for the shares based on fundamentals and not wings of fancy- otherwise you will become a lost cause.
The political landscape in Iraq is changing fast, Iraqi govt. has now paid most of the arrears to Exxon ( a threat of legal proceedings has done the trick). Kurds and Sunnis have re-aligned and although some of Exxon's licenses are in Sunni areas ( disputed areas ) Sunnis have kept quiet.Kurds are not using Kikuk-Ceyhan pipeline as much in 2011/2012 as in 2010/2011. Oil through the pipeline is down from 175000 bopd to 75000 bopd , which is hitting Iraqi revenue.Kurds are using road transport instead and getting more than they would have received under budget entitlement. They are able to pay oil companies from the proceeds.In fact the kurds are saying that Baghdad owes them 1 billion dollars and that is why they are not using the pipeline that much. Baghdad has denied owing any money to Kurds. I think the Kurds are positioning themselves to take over Kikuk-Cehan pipeline and then the oil field as well, because they are in Kurdistan ,with the agreement of Sunnis in the neighbouring provinces. Some arrangement has been made and that would explain sanctuary to Sunni vice-president. Now even Shia provines of Al Ghir, Al Basrah ( Basrah to you ) and Karbala are demanding freedom to issue their own PSCs. Maliki has become a lame duck prime minister due to his intransigent and strident attitude, and will soon become a dead duck.
Clean up the BB and persuade Frenchboy to come back and monitor it. No one who is fully employed or committed has the time or inclination to trawl through 500 to 1000 posts a day just in case he finds a few of value.Maximum posting should be about 100. DYOR is a must for acquiring proper knowledge.
IMHO.
===========
Mon 17:48
Too Many Crooks....
GKP.L
337UP
Amazing... so that is 3 orchestrated attacks in the last 3 weeks on private investors (taking about 50p, 80p and another 50p off the value of each GKP share). And of those private investors, many (according to Mark Leftly’s now infamous IoS article) have their “life-savings” tied up in GKP. Well, they always do say that money lies at the root of all evil!
In my book, that is three attacks too many, and it has had me carefully evaluating the real benefit and psychological impact of taking anything other than a cursory glance at what these bulletin boards offer me as an Investor.
And I can’t help concluding that there is quite simply TOO MUCH in the way of:
• Misleading and perhaps even completely unfounded Rumours
• Uncorroborated ‘information’, or even downright lies
• Snide innuendo : Snide (erogatory in a malicious, superior way) innuendo (An indirect or subtle, usually derogatory implication in expression; an insinuation.
Law: A plaintiff's interpretation in a libel suit of allegedly libelous or slanderous material.) and unprovoked personal attacks
• Multiple aliases and unmoderated user IDs
• Junk ‘news’ items and 'spam' from spam-bots
• Representation for corrupt institutions and perhaps even paid ‘bashers’!
• Inflated egos and assorted low-lifes!
Bash=Informal. To criticize (another) harshly, accusatorially, and threateningly: "He bashed the . . . government unmercifully over the . . . spy affair" (Lally Weymouth).
.... coupled with wholly inadequate regulation by both the FSA and Interactive Investor itself!
And aganst that backdrop there is TOO LITTLE of what the discussion boards were presumably first designed for – the sharing of Research, and the Interpretation and validation of Information (both true and false) that finds its way into the public domain.
I have also slowly begun to realise that those who do not have our interests at heart often use these boards as a barometer of investor sentiment and a means of obtaining detailed and valuable information FOR FREE.... and that this information is sometimes ultimately used against the humble PI.
As most of you know, I have the utmost faith in GKP’s fantastic Fundamentals and mid-term prospects, which today’s generally positive Operational Update I think clearly endorses. I am also sure that in due course all those who have taken the decision to INVEST will be well rewarded.
Indeed, when GKP finally receives that “offer it cannot refuse”, I am quite sure that the Board of Directors, ably assisted by Perella Weinberg and Strand Hanson will do their level best to eke out a deal that will benefit themselves (remember the various requirements and prices set for their options).... and presumably the shareholders too.
I certainly hope that a 'fair auction' does ultimately take place, and that this eventuality is destined to happen.
However, while we await that moment - which will also hopefully arrive when many within the City are least expecting it and therefore completely unable to react - I have decided that it is simply not healthy to spend so much time on these boards in the company of what I can only describe as .... TOO MANY CROOKS!
To those people, always remember that what comes around goes around! Hope you all sleep well at night with that thought in mind.
And to the rest of the good people on here, I sincerely wish you all the best of luck with your investments and look forward to meeting many of you at the Takeover party... which I remain pretty confident will happen sometime in 2012.
Other than that, all that remains is for me to say goodbye, to wish all the decent people on here the very best of luck with your investments and your trades, and to ask you all to try to keep hold of as many Golden Tickets as you can. Mine are not going ANYWHERE until one of Todd's Fat Ladies begins to sing.
GLA, scaramouche
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