SCENARIOS-What Afghan, Yemen meetings may achieve

24 Jan 2010 12:19:51 GMT
Source: Reuters
YEMEN

SECURITY

The meeting is due to discuss how to counter radicalisation and coordinate aid to the Arab world's poorest country.

In addition to al Qaeda attacks, Yemen also faces a Shi'ite revolt in the north and separatist sentiment in the south.

Little is likely to be achieved without the tacit approval of neighbour and oil power Saudi Arabia, whose aid to Yemen may be larger than all other countries' contributions combined.

Analyst Ginny Hill at Britain's Chatham House think tank notes that despite the kingdom's importance, Yemenis remain sensitive about Saudi Arabia's involvement in their affairs.

The meeting will seek to improve international support for Yemen's efforts to tackle these security problems and also advance political, economic and social reforms.

The Obama administration is considering proposals to sharply expand Pentagon powers to assist forces in Yemen, Somalia and elsewhere battling al Qaeda and its affiliates, defence and congressional officials say.

AID AND REFORM

The meeting is not intended as a pledging conference, and diplomats say the West wants to hold the Yemeni government accountable on economic reforms to ensure aid money is properly spent in a country where corruption is rampant.

Yemen has struggled to gain donors' trust. A donors' meeting in London in 2006 pledged about $5 billion but only a "very small percentage" has been disbursed, in part because of concerns about how the money would be spent, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband told parliament this month.

Donors may hesitate to push hard for change in a country where internal security remains paramount. Chatham House's Hill cites pessimists as saying President Ali Abdullah Saleh, in power since 1990, might tolerate cosmetic measures but would not sanction reforms that would dismantle elite patronage networks.

Ivan Lewis, a British Foreign Office minister, said Yemen and Afghanistan faced different challenges. Yemen's government was very fragile but it was at least still functioning, he said, drawing an unfavourable implicit comparison with Afghanistan.

Yemen's allies had to act early to help it face economic and social challenges. That would lead to greater stability and minimise the threat to the international community, he said.

(Reporting by Peter Graff in Kabul, Myra Macdonald, Adrian Croft and Matt Falloon in London and Sue Pleming and Adam Entous in Washington) (Editing by Noah Barkin)