ISLAMabad started 5th battle in South Waziristan for its prestige

Q+A-Why is Pakistan attacking in South Waziristan?
17 Oct 2009 07:16:39 GMT
Source: Reuters
(or full coverage of Pakistan and Afghanistan, see [ID:nAFPAK])

By Robert Birsel

Oct 17(Reuters) - Pakistan's army began on Saturday a ground operation against Pakistani Taliban militants in the South Waziristan region on the Afghan border, a senior government official said.

The government in June ordered the army to launch an offensive in South Waziristan. Since then the military has been conducting air and artillery strikes to soften up the militants' defences and blockading the region. [ID:nSP463682]

Here are some questions and answers on South Waziristan:

WHY IS THE ARMY ATTACKING?

South Waziristan is the main stronghold of the Tehrik-e-Taliban, or Taliban Movement of Pakistan, an alliance of more than a dozen militant groups that is fighting the government and wants to impose hardline Islamist rule. [ID:nSP168008]

The Pakistani Taliban have been responsible for a wave of violence across the country since mid-2007, when the army crushed an Islamist movement linked with South Waziristan based at Islamabad's Red Mosque. As well as numerous suicide bomb attacks against military, government and foreign targets, the al Qaeda-linked Pakistani Taliban were accused of killing former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in late 2007.

Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud was killed by a missile fired by a U.S. drone aircraft on Aug. 5 and replaced by Hakimullah Mehsud who has vowed to exact revenge.

Pakistani Taliban fighters virtually took over control of the Swat valley, northwest of Islamabad, beginning in 2007 and a push out of the valley towards Islamabad spread fear early this year. The army responded with an offensive that has largely cleared militants out of the valley. The army has now set its sights on South Waziristan in the hope of rooting out the most potent domestic threat to the state.

WHO IS THERE?

The army says about 10,000 hardcore fighters are in South Waziristan, an area of around 6,620 square km (2,550 square miles), although some analysts estimate more. Most are members of the region's ethnic Pashtun tribes who have battled intruders for centuries.

Foreign militants, including about 1,000 Uzbeks, some al Qaeda Arabs and even a handful of militants from Western countries are also there. Militant factions from other parts of Pakistan, in particular the south of Punjab province, are also based with the Taliban in South Waziristan. [ID:nISL469234]

Osama bin Laden is believed to be hiding somewhere along the Afghan-Pakistani border, though analysts doubt he would be in an area the army is about to attack.

WHAT ARE THE RISKS?

A ground offensive in South Waziristan could be the army's toughest test since the militants turned on the state.

The army launched brief offensives there before, the first in in 2004 when it suffered heavy casualties before striking a peace pact. The army has seldom, if ever, ventured into much of the semi-autonomous region of arid mountains and dried-up creeks and will be taking on fighters who have had years to prepare defences. The Pashtun tribes in the region have long been hostile to outside intervention and many people, particularly those belonging to the Mehsud tribe, support the Taliban. So the army could get bogged down in an area in which it has little experience and which is inhabited by a hostile population.

Another risk for the army is that militant factions in North Waziristan might come to the help of their South Waziristan comrades while cells of militants in towns and cities could try to divert attention with attacks like the weekend raid on the army's headquarters in Rawalpindi. (For more Reuters coverage of Afghanistan and Pakistan, see:http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/afghanistanpakist an) ((robert.birsel@thomsonreuters.com; +92 51 281 0017; Reuters Messaging: robert.birsel.reuters.com@reuters.net))

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By ISHTIAQ MAHSUD and MUNIR AHMAD, Associated Press Writers Ishtiaq Mahsud And Munir Ahmad, Associated Press Writers – 33 mins ago

DERA ISMAIL KHAN, Pakistan – More than 30,000 Pakistani soldiers launched a ground offensive against al-Qaida and the Taliban's main stronghold along the Afghan border Saturday, officials said, in the country's toughest test yet against a strengthening insurgency.

The United States has long pushed the government to carry out an assault in South Waziristan, and it comes after two weeks of militant attacks that have killed more than 175 people across the nuclear-armed country. That has ramped up pressure on the army to act.

Pakistan has fought three unsuccessful campaigns since 2001 in the region, which is the nerve-center for Pakistani insurgents fighting the U.S.-backed government. It is also a major base for foreign militants to plan attacks on American and NATO forces in Afghanistan and on targets in the West.

After months of aerial bombing, troops moved into the region Saturday from several directions, heading to the insurgent bases of Ladha and Makeen among other targets, intelligence and military officials said on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the topic or because they were not allowed to brief the media.

They said the operation was expected to last around two months.

Pakistani army spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas confirmed Saturday evening that a full-fledged ground operation was under way and said that it aimed to "uproot" the Pakistani Taliban. He said it was too early to discuss what sort of resistance the army was meeting.

The United Nations has said it is preparing to help civilians who are fleeing the region. Up to 150,000 civilians have already left in recent months after the army made clear it was planning an assault, but there are perhaps as many as 350,000 remaining.

At least 11 suspected insurgents were killed in the jet bombings, while a bomb hit a security convoy, killing one soldier and wounding three others, two local intelligence officials said. A military statement Saturday evening said four soldiers were killed and 12 wounded in exchanges of fire elsewhere in the region.

It is nearly impossible to independently verify information from the region, which is largely controlled by local tribes and has little infrastructure or government presence. Foreigners require permission to enter tribal areas, and few Pakistani journalists risk traveling there.

Makeen resident Ajmal Khan said people there were terrified but could not leave their homes due to a curfew.

"We heard sounds of planes and helicopters early Saturday. Then we heard blasts," Khan said by telephone. "We are also hearing gunshots, and it seems the army is exchanging fire with Taliban."

The army has deployed more than 30,000 troops to the region, said one of the intelligence officials. The military already has said it has sealed off many supply and escape routes and has been trying to secure the support of local tribesmen in the fight.

Earlier this week, the airport in the nearest major town, Dera Ismail Khan, was closed to civilian aircraft.

Recent opinion polls show broad support for military action against the militants, a change from a few years ago. There is also political backing for action. But a long and bloody conflict — and more terrorist attacks around the country — could erode that support.

Speaking earlier in the week, army spokesman Abbas said the assault would be limited to slain Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud's holdings — a swath of territory that stretches roughly 1,275 square miles (3,310 square kilometers). That portion covers about half of South Waziristan, which itself is slightly larger than the U.S. state of Delaware.

The plan is to capture and hold the area where Abbas estimates 10,000 insurgents are headquartered and reinforced with about 1,500 foreign fighters, most of them of Central Asian origin. "There are Arabs, but the Arabs are basically in the leadership, providing resources and expertise and in the role of trainers," he said.

Since 2001, the army's three attempts to dislodge Taliban fighters from South Waziristan have ended in truces that left the Taliban in control. This time the military has said there will be no deals, partly to avoid jeopardizing gains won earlier this year when Pakistani soldiers overpowered the Taliban in the Swat Valley, another northwestern region.

Taliban spokesmen could not immediately be reached for comment Saturday. Communications in and around the region appeared jammed, making it difficult to reach local residents or other witnesses.

Despite sometimes rocky relations with the Pakistani military, the U.S. is trying to rush in equipment for the offensive that would help with mobility, night fighting and precision bombing, a U.S. Embassy official told The Associated Press in a recent interview, speaking on condition of anonymity because the issue is politically sensitive.

In addition to night-vision devices, the Pakistan military has said it is seeking additional Cobra helicopter gunships, heliborne lift capability, laser-guided munitions and intelligence equipment to monitor cell and satellite telephones.

Even if the operation is successful in South Waziristan, many of the militants could escape to Afghanistan or other parts of Pakistan's semiautonomous tribal belt. Few analysts expect that by itself it will turn the tide in the country's war against militants.

The army has considered the upcoming winter weather in the timing the offensive. Snows in the region could block major roads. At the same time, it could also work to the army's advantage by driving fighters out of their unheated mountain hideouts.

Although the military has been hitting targets in South Waziristan for the past three months, it waited until two weeks ago to say it would definitely go ahead with a major ground offensive.

What followed was a rash of major bombings that killed 175 people and demonstrated the militants' ability to attack cities across the country. One attack involved a siege of the army's headquarters that lasted 22 hours and left 23 people dead. In the latest bombing, three suicide attackers, including a woman, struck a police station in the northwestern city of Peshawar on Friday, killing 13 people.

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Ahmad reported from Islamabad. Associated Press writers Kathy Gannon and Nahal Toosi in Islamabad and Hussain Afzal in Parachinar contributed to this report.