China can be rich or neutral - not both

01 Feb 2012 03:27 Source: Reuters // Reuters (Corrects figure in fifth paragraph to 1 mln, not 10 mln) By John Foley HONG KONG, Feb 1 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The kidnapping of 29 Chinese workers in Sudan shows that China's "don't intervene" policy is coming under strain. As the world's most populous country guns for the economic number one spot, it will not be as easy to keep out of conflicts. Even if China desires a softer alternative to the Pax Americana, history suggests that with power comes aggression. Fence-sitting has been a central pillar of China's foreign policy since the 1950s, when Premier Zhou Enlai promised not to interfere in India's domestic business. Whereas the United States values governance and democracy, China prefers trade and investment. That strategy makes sense for a resource-hungry latecomer to the game of economic colonialism, even if it leaves the country open to accusations of turning a blind eye to undesirable regimes. But not taking sides is not always enough. The kidnapping will push Beijing towards taking a more active role in the dispute over oil revenue between Sudan and newly independent South Sudan. Iran is another challenge. China can refuse to support Western sanctions, but it would not be happy about major disruptions to the oil market or a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic. With so much self-interest at stake, non-interference looks self-defeating. If China finds a way to get rich and remain mostly peaceful, it would be good for everyone. So far the signs are good. President Hu Jintao talks of a "harmonious world", and has tackled regimes like Sudan's with aid and dialogue -- while sending peacekeeping troops to countries like East Timor, and deploying a naval force to the Aden Gulf in 2008 to protect merchant ships from pirates. But the "Pax Sinensis" has two major challenges. One is China's skewed birth rate, which produces 1 million surplus boys every year. The other is its interconnectedness. China is already the world's largest importer of coal, soybeans and iron ore. When global markets are threatened, it can no longer sit by. Much as China might like to return to the way it was five hundred years ago -- rich, self-sufficient and largely left alone by the world -- that's no longer an option. CONTEXT NEWS -- China sent a team of officials to Sudan to seek the release of 29 workers being held by rebels on the border state of South Kordofan. A report by the Sudanese state news agency saying that 14 of the workers had been freed was denied by Chinese and Sudanese officials on Jan. 30. -- The Philippines has held talks with the United States on expanding the American military presence in South-East Asia in response to China's growing assertiveness, the Washington Post reported on Jan. 26. Beijing and Manila both claim sovereignty over some islands in the South China Sea. -- China invested $60 billion overseas in 2011, 1.8 percent more than the previous year, not including bank loans. That brought the total stock to $322 billion, according to the Ministry of Commerce. Investment into China totaled $116 billion in the same year. -- Reuters: China sends team to Sudan seeking release of workers -- For previous columns by the author, Reuters customers can click on (Editing by Edward Hadas and Martin Langfield) ================ China's outgoing leader sees unprecedented opportunity, unknown risks Wed, Nov 07 20:52 PM EST By Sui-Lee Wee and Ben Blanchard BEIJING (Reuters) - China formally opened a congress of its ruling Communist Party on Thursday, ushering in a once-in-a-decade leadership change against a backdrop of growing social unrest, public anger at corruption and a yawning gap between rich and poor. More than 2,000 hand-picked delegates gathered at Beijing's cavernous Great Hall of the People for the start of the week-long session, which will see President Hu Jintao give up his role as party chief to anointed successor Vice President Xi Jinping. Xi then takes over state duties at the annual meeting of parliament in March.

"At present, as the global, national and our party's conditions continue to undergo profound changes, we are faced with unprecedented opportunities for development as well as risks and challenges unknown before," Hu said in the customary speech signaling the start of the meeting.

The government has tightened security in the run-up to the congress, even banning the flying of pigeons in the capital, and has either locked up or expelled dozens of dissidents it fears could spoil the party. Security was especially tight on Thursday around the Great Hall and Tiananmen Square next door, the scene of pro-democracy protests in 1989 that were crushed by the military. Police dragged away a screaming protester as the Chinese national flag was raised at dawn. The party, which came to power in 1949 after a long and bloody civil war, has in recent years tied its legitimacy to economic growth and lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty. But China experts say that unless the new leadership pushes through stalled reforms, the nation risks economic malaise, deepening unrest, and perhaps even a crisis that could shake the party's grip on power. Advocates of reform are pressing Xi to cut back the privileges of state-owned firms, make it easier for rural migrants to settle permanently in cities, fix a fiscal system that encourages local governments to live off land expropriations and, above all, tether the powers of a state that they say risks suffocating growth and fanning discontent. The congress may also see cautious efforts to answer calls for more political reform, although nobody seriously expects a move towards full democracy. Party spokesman Cai Mingzhao said on Wednesday there would be greater efforts at promoting "inner-party democracy" - in other words, encouraging greater debate within the party - but that one-party rule was inviolate. "The leading position of the Communist Party in China is a decision made by history and by the people," he said. "Political system reform must suit China's national reality. We have to unswervingly stick to the right path blazed by the party." And that path includes control over what people can see and hear in the news and on the internet. "My internet has been cut off, I can't receive telephone calls and three people follow me when I leave the house to walk my dog," Xinna, the wife of one of China's longest-serving political prisoners, Mongol rights activist Hada, told Reuters. "All I want from this congress is my husband to be released and for our lives to get back to normal," she said from her home in the frigid northern Chinese city of Hohhot. A Tibetan rights group reported that three teenaged Tibetan monks in the southwestern province of Sichuan set themselves on fire on Wednesday in protest against Chinese rule, bringing to almost 70 the number of self-immolations by Tibetans in 18 months. China has branded the self-immolators "terrorists" and criminals and has blamed exiled Tibetans and the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, for inciting them. (Editing by Nick Macfie and Raju Gopalakrishnan) ============