Pondering Italy After Berlusconi

Posted 17 December 2011 - 02:38 PM Politics in Italy is polarised between the right and left. On Berlusconi's side are: the mafia, the Vatican, the intelligence services, the fascists, many businessmen and the CIA. On the opposite side, are: the intellectuals, democrats and left-of-centre parties. As you may see from the above, Berlusconi's side is very strong. It kept him in power for a long time and sustained previous Christian Democrat governments for most of the postwar period. When Berlusconi resigns, the young people and those left of centre will be happy. Adnan Darwash, Iraq Occupation Times Calculator: Italian debt spiral
Calculator: Italian debt spiral
09 November 2011 | By Neil Unmack

If yields stay at 7.5 percent interest rate, Rome would need a 6 percent primary surplus just to keep its debt/GDP ratio static(120%) – and that’s assuming it meets its growth forecasts of 2.5%.



7.5-2.5=5% X 120%=6%
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09 Nov 2011 10:16
Source: Reuters // Reuters

By Mary Gabriel

PIANE DI FALERONE, Italy, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The chairs were filled for the mid-afternoon card game outside my local coffee bar but inside, it was clear Tuesday was not a normal day.

Instead of the usual televised soap opera, the woman behind the bar had turned to a news channel where a much bigger drama was playing out. Each greeting from a new customer was followed by a glance at the screen and the seemingly vague question, "What's happening?"

But she knew what they meant. What's happening with Berlusconi?

Between commentary from Roman and Milanese media and politicians, who all agreed the prime minister's days in office were numbered, Silvio Berlusconi's weary face flashed on the screen. His usual bluster gone, he seemed unimaginably powerless. Italians have grown used to seeing him in tight spots, but never like this.

Those watching no doubt did so with mixed emotions. Berlusconi has so dominated Italian politics that it is impossible to imagine government without him.

He was less a prime minister than an emperor, a figurehead with larger-than-life appetites who ruled paternalistically over a people he was convinced loved him. And why should he think otherwise? He was repeatedly returned to office despite numerous corruption charges, rumoured links to the Mafia, accusations of influence buying, and scandalous - not to mention embarrassing -- charges involving his personal life.

And in a way, Italians did love him. One intellectual famously said of his fellow countrymen earlier this year during the height of the "Rubygate" sex revelations, "There is a little Berlusconi in us all."

This might help explain Italians' patience with Berlusconi. That, and the fact that Berlusconi unlike many Western politicians, campaigned with the implicit promise that he and his government would leave Italian citizens alone if they left him to govern as he pleased. It was a deal Italians could live with because the alternative, an interventionist central government, was unthinkable for many.

Sometimes, from my home far from Rome on the Adriatic coast, it seems to me that Italy has not changed since it was formally born as a nation in the 19th century.

The units of government still start with the family. That remains the most important entity in an Italian's life. It is the base of all social relations, and in rural areas it is also usually the source of employment: Young men and women traditionally follow their fathers and mothers into the family business.

Official government plays a part in Italian life through local government, or the commune, but these too are in many respects an extension of the family.

Commune bureaucrats know the local citizenry because they grew up together. They know all the family histories. Problems and concerns are handled with a mix of professionalism and intimacy. There is no such thing as a faceless bureaucrat at this level in the Italian provinces. This familiarity is one of the reasons Italian life, for all its apparent chaos, works so well.

But trust in government begins to break down beyond that, and by the time it gets to Rome it is nearly entirely gone. To many Italians, the federal government is a sinkhole into which taxes are poured and from which - at best - the status quo is maintained. And that is what Berlusconi promised.

It is not that Italians are happy with Berlusconi's government. Parents grumble that the educational system is a farce. Young people say a stagnant economy offers no future and no possibility of work. Innovation has not been championed. And the manufacturing base that helped resurrect Italy after World War Two has moved east to China. That development is seen as benefiting only the company directors and the politicians who wrote the laws making such trade legal.

Still, despite the complaints, the fear among Italians I've talked to is that whoever follows Berlusconi will take more and offer less. And this fear has only grown with the European Union's demands for deep cuts to address Italy's enormous debt.

If there is little trust in Rome there is even less in Brussels. While talking about the turmoil in Europe, the owner of a clothing store said with a shrug, "The EU is not a union, it is a bordello=A house of prostitution.
."

I have sensed a resignation among Italians that the era of Berlusconi is over. And there is also a new sentiment being expressed that maybe that is not such a bad thing. But the future - even tomorrow - is unsettled in the extreme.

For more than a decade, Berlusconi has been Italy, and Italy has been Berlusconi. (editing by Janet McBride)

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Italy's Senate set to vote for cuts to save euro zone

11 Nov 2011 04:15
Source: Reuters // Reuters

* Senate debate starts 0930 GMT and vote due same day

* Lower house votes on Saturday

* Berlusconi resignation could come same day

* New government may be in place before markets open Monday

By Philip Pullella

ROME, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Italy's Senate was set to vote on Friday for austerity measures demanded by the European Union to avert a euro zone meltdown, while a new emergency government is expected within days, ending the Berlusconi era.

The upper house is due to begin debating the package at 0930 GMT with an outcome expected later in the day. Having been approved by the upper house budget committee on Thursday, the law is seen being passed easily.

Voting for the first time in the upper house will be Mario Monti, the former European Commissioner who has emerged as favourite to replace Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

Paving the way for Monti's appointment, President Giorgio Napolitano made him a life senator on Wednesday in a surprise move that raised his already high profile and instantly made him a legislator.

Berlusconi, who lost his majority in a vote on Tuesday, has promised to resign after the financial stability law is passed by both houses of parliament.

The law is due to be approved by the lower house Chamber of Deputies on Saturday. That would mean Napolitano may accept Berlusconi's resignation as early as Saturday night and formally mandate Monti to try to form a new government soon afterwards.

Napolitano has urged parliament to act fast and some commentators say a new government made up mostly of technocrats could be in place as early as Sunday night before markets open on Monday.

The president moved quickly to calm markets on Wednesday after Italy's borrowing costs reached levels that could close its access to market funding, a development which would threaten the future of the euro zone.

He gave assurances that Berlusconi would honour his pledge to step down after parliament approved reforms geared to placate markets and he would waste no time in either appointing a new government or calling new elections.

BERLUSCONI CHANGES HIS MIND

At first, Berlusconi had insisted that early elections were the only option. But he has since softened his stand and is said by sources to be open to a new government.

Monti, a highly respected international figure, has been pushed by markets for weeks as the most suitable figure to lead a national unity government to urgently push through painful austerity measures.

Napolitano met Monti on Thursday night, and, in a sign of the urgency of the situation, spoke by telephone with U.S. President Barack Obama.

In one badly needed success that calmed markets somewhat, Italy managed to sell 5 billion euros ($6.8 billion) of one-year bonds on Thursday, but had to pay a whopping 6.087 percent interest rate, the highest in 14 years.

It was not clear how much of Berlusconi's PDL, which has undergone many defections and splits in the past few days, would support the new government, expected to include respected experts as well as a few politicians.

It will be supported by most centrists and the biggest opposition force, the Democratic Party.

Berlusconi's chief coalition partner, the Northern League, has said it would not back Monti.

Monti, who is currently head of Milan's prestigious Bocconi university, is a tough negotiator with a record of taking on powerful corporate interests as European Competition Commissioner. (Editing by Louise Ireland and Neil Fullick)

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