#1 Adnan Darwash
Group:Guests
Posted 09 November 2011 - 11:24 AM
The USraeli war mongers started to beat the war drums after the success of US-led NATO forces to neutralise Gheddafi defences and to defeat his rag-tag army. Now it is the turn of Iran-Syria-Hezbullah alliance. The first pretext was the presumed Iranian plot to kill a Saudi ambassador to Washington. The second is Iran potential nuclear bombs. But can Obama and Netanyahu team up to destroy Iran without severe damage to the interests of both countries. The Iranians are not faint-hearted or easy to push around. As a matter of fact they have already challenged the Usraeli war mongers to try their luck. The USraelis will eventually plan to saturate Iran war theatre with all kinds of non-conventional weapons to disable its ability to retaliate. But it is the day after that will be so shocking to the USraelis. It is expected that the Iranians will try to attack US ships and bases in the Persian gulf including the Gulf oil fields. Furthermore the US military and civilian personnel in Iraq, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and Oman will be at the mercy of Iranian fighters.
The Israelis who are used to seeing the Americans fighting their Jewish wars and eliminating their enemies will be in for suprises. But who will gain from such wars on Iran, Syria and Lebanon? The first are the arm industries followed by the oil cartels. The Syrians will love it as the attention will be diverted away from the current national uprising against the regimes.
People of the Persian Gulf may see Iran as a saviour from the age-old rotten and corrupt Emirs, Sultans, Kings and Sheikhs. Most people of the wolrd will cheer seeing America losing so much. The Europeans may forget the chronic crisis of their union and currency. While Arabs and Muslims will love seeing Israeli arrogance going up in flames. In the past the Iranians depended on God , which former president Carter didn't account for when he failed to rescue the US hostages from Tehran. As many have predicetd, the coming days will be pregnant with interesting events and developments.
Adnan Darwash, Iraq Occupation Times
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04 Nov 2011 13:42
Source: Reuters // Reuters
Nov 4 (Reuters) - Iran marked the anniversary of the 1979 seizure of the U.S. embassy on Friday with burning flags and chants of "Death to America", ramping up anti-U.S. rhetoric ahead of the release of a pivotal U.N. report on its nuclear programme.
Iran and the United States broke diplomatic ties following the 1979 Islamic revolution and the storming of the U.S. embassy in Tehran 32 years ago.
Following is an historical survey of U.S.-Iranian relations:
* 1953 - A COUP:
-- In August 1953, the CIA helped orchestrate the overthrow of Iran's democratically elected and popular prime minister, Mohammed Mossadegh, restoring the Shah, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, to power.
-- Washington acted after Britain, opposed to Mossadegh's policy of nationalising Iran's British-controlled oil industry, convinced U.S. officials the prime minister was turning to communism. As Britain's power faded, the United States became the symbol of what many Iranians saw as Western imperialism.
* 1972 - CEMENTING A RELATIONSHIP:
-- A 1972 visit by U.S. President Richard Nixon cemented a close strategic relationship between Iran and the United States. But opposition to the Shah, led by exiled cleric Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, mounted over the next few years.
* 1979 - KHOMEINI RETURNS:
-- After bloody clashes between protesters and troops, the Shah fled into exile in January 1979. The next month, Khomeini returned to Iran in triumph to seal victory for an Islamic revolution whose mantra was "Death to America".
-- In November 1979, Iranian students seized the U.S. embassy in Tehran and took 90 hostages; 52 were held captive for 444 days, prompting Washington to break relations in 1980.
* 1986 - ARMS DEAL:
-- U.S. President Ronald Reagan admitted to secret arms deals with Iran that broke a U.S. embargo. The trade was aimed at winning the release of Americans held by pro-Iranian Shi'ite Muslim militants in Lebanon. Money from the sales was secretly passed to U.S.-backed Contra guerrillas in Nicaragua. At the time, Iran was embroiled in war with President Saddam Hussein's Iraq, with Washington giving increasing support to Baghdad.
* 1997 - REFORMISTS IN CHARGE:
-- Iranian voters swept reform-minded President Mohammad Khatami to power. He promoted a "dialogue among civilisations". During his term, Iranians staged an impromptu vigil in Tehran when hijacked planes struck U.S. targets on Sept. 11, 2001.
-- After those al Qaeda attacks, Iran offered support in a U.S.-led war to topple Afghanistan's Taliban leaders, who were shielding al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. Iran helped ensure the success of a multilateral post-war conference on Afghanistan. But in January 2002, U.S. President George W. Bush branded Iran part of an "axis of evil" and accused it of seeking nuclear weapons.
* 2003 - INVASION OF IRAQ:
-- The U.S.-led invasion of Iraq toppled Saddam, a Sunni Arab leader who had been a deadly enemy of Iran, and brought to power Iraqi Shi'ite factions with closer links to Tehran.
-- As Iraq descended into insurgency and sectarian conflict, the United States accused Tehran of arming, funding and training Shi'ite militias that have attacked U.S. forces in Iraq. Iran denied this, blaming the U.S. troop presence for the violence.
* NUCLEAR STAND-OFF:
-- The United States led efforts to toughen U.N. sanctions on Iran over its nuclear activity and in March 2008 the Security Council adopted a third sanctions resolution. Iran says the programme is lawful, peaceful, designed only to generate electricity, but a history of concealing sensitive nuclear work and restricting U.N. inspections has raised Western suspicions.
-- U.S.-Iran tensions worsened after the 2005 election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who berated the West, questioned the Holocaust and called for Israel to be wiped off the map. In a surprise development, a U.S. National Intelligence Estimate in late 2007 said Iran put nuclear military plans on hold in 2003.
* NEW U.S. ADMINISTRATION:
-- New U.S. President Barack Obama said in January 2009 that America was prepared to extend a hand of peace to Iran if it "unclenched its fist". Ahmadinejad said Tehran was ready to talk but demanded a fundamental change in U.S. policy.
-- In March 2009 Obama issued a videotaped appeal to Iranian leaders and their people, saying his "administration is now committed to diplomacy" that addresses the full range of issues before them and "to pursuing constructive ties".
-- Iran said later that Obama should fundamentally change Washington's policy towards Iran and should "realise its previous mistakes" and make an effort to correct them.
* WHAT'S HAPPENING NOW?
-- Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said last week that Iran would like to have friendly relations with the United States one day, but not under current conditions.
-- Commenting on earlier remarks by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that Washington supported the Iranian people while opposing the policies of their government, her Iranian counterpart said her message did not add up.
-- Nuclear talks between Tehran and world powers, including the United States, have stalled. Washington has been pressing for new sanctions on Iran after uncovering what it says was an Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington. (Reporting by David Cutler, London Editorial Reference Unit and Edmund Blair; Editing by Mark Heinrich)
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Iran is top threat to U.S., military official says
04 Nov 2011 15:34
Source: Reuters // Reuters
WASHINGTON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Iran is the biggest threat to the United States in the Middle East, surpassing al Qaeda, which is down but not out, a senior U.S. military official said on Friday.
"The biggest threat to the United States and to our interests and to our friends, I might add, has come into focus and it's Iran," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Speaking at a forum in Washington, the official said he did not believe Iran wanted to provoke a conflict, however, and added he did not know if the Islamic state had decided to build a nuclear weapon.
Next week, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations nuclear watchdog, is expected to release a report that includes evidence of Iranian nuclear research which makes little sense if not weapons related, Western diplomats said.
(Reporting by Phil Stewart and Fredrik Dahl in Vienna.)
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'Iran war will jeopardize ME for century'
Sat Nov 5, 2011 3:34PM GMT
Ex-Mossad chief Ephraim Halevy
Former director of Israeli spy agency, Mossad, says any possible attack against Iran would impact the entire region for the next 100 years.
"An attack on Iran could affect not only Israel, but the entire region for 100 years," Ephraim Halevy told Israeli daily Ynet on Friday.
Halevy added that Iran is "far from posing an existential threat to Israel."
He made the remarks after reports said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak have been trying to persuade the cabinet to militarily strike Iran over its nuclear program.
Israeli Minister of Finance Yuval Steinitz, Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Ya'alon, Interior Minister Eli Yishai, Intelligence and Atomic Energy Minister Dan Meridor and Minister-without-Portfolio Benny Begin remain firmly opposed to any action against Iran.
The ministers believe Israel must continue with efforts to encourage the West to exert more economic and political pressure on Iran.
They emphasize that any military action against Iran should be carried out in full coordination with the United States.
Washington and Tel Aviv have repeatedly threatened Tehran with the "option" of a military strike, based on the allegation that Iran's nuclear work may consist of a covert military aspect.
Iran argues that it has the right to develop and acquire nuclear technology for peaceful purposes as a signatory to
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PREVIEW-IAEA report on Iran set to stoke Middle East tension
06 Nov 2011 09:38
Source: Reuters // Reuters
* Iran and foes escalating rhetoric ahead of IAEA report
* Document to deepen suspicions on Iran, but no "smoking gun"
* Tehran rejects intelligence on atomic bomb work as forged
By Fredrik Dahl
VIENNA, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The U.N. nuclear watchdog is expected this week to issue its most detailed report yet on research in Iran seen as geared to developing atomic bombs, heightening international suspicions of Iranian intentions and fuelling Middle East tension.
Western powers are likely to seize on the International Atomic Energy Agency document, which has been preceded by media speculation in Israel of military strikes against Iranian nuclear sites, to press for more sanctions on the oil producer.
But Russia and China fear the publication now of the IAEA's findings could hurt any chance of diplomacy resolving the long-running nuclear row and they have lobbied against it, signalling opposition to any new punitive U.N. measures against Iran.
Iran rejects allegations of atomic weapons ambitions, saying its nuclear programme is aimed at producing electricity.
The report is tentatively scheduled to be submitted to IAEA member states on Nov. 9 before a quarterly meeting the following week of the agency's 35-nation board of governors in Vienna.
It "will be followed by a U.S.-European Union push for harsher sanctions against Iran at the U.N. Security Council, where Western powers will meet stiff resistance from Russia and China," said Trita Parsi, an expert on U.S.-Iran relations.
The document is expected to give fresh evidence of research and other activities with little other application than atomic bomb-making, including studies linked to the development of an atom bomb trigger and computer modelling of a nuclear weapon.
Sources briefed on the report also say it will include information from both before and after 2003 -- the year in which U.S. spy services estimated, in a controversial 2007 assessment, that Iran had halted outright "weaponisation" work.
Many conservative experts criticised the 2007 findings as inaccurate and naive, and U.S. intelligence agencies now believe Iranian leaders have resumed closed-door debates over the last four years about whether to build a nuclear bomb.
"The primary new information is likely to be any work that Iran has engaged in after 2003 ... Iran is understood to have continued or restarted some research and development since then," said Peter Crail of the Arms Control Association, a U.S.-based advocacy group.
The sources familiar with the document said that among other things it would support allegations that Iran built a large steel container for the purpose of carrying out tests with high explosives applicable to nuclear weapons.
"This is not a country that is sitting down just doing some theoretical stuff on a computer," a Western official said about the IAEA's body of evidence, which is based on Western intelligence as well as the agency's own investigations.
"SABRE RATTLING"
The report will flesh out and expand on concerns voiced by the IAEA for several years over allegations that Iran had a linked programme of projects to process uranium, test high explosives and modify a missile cone to take a nuclear payload.
It is not believed to contain an explicit assessment that Iran is developing a nuclear weapons capability. "The IAEA's report will not likely contain any smoking guns," said Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
But Western diplomats say the dossier will be incriminating for the Islamic Republic and present a compelling case that it is carrying out weapons-relevant work.
Iran says the accusations of military nuclear activity are forged and baseless, showing no sign of backing down in the face of intensified international pressure.
Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said he did not fear possible revelations, saying on Saturday:
"They are claiming that they are going to publish new documents. We know what the truth is -- let them publish them and we'll see what happens. Will they not be called into question as an agency that is under pressure by foreign powers?"
But Iran's history of concealing sensitive nuclear activity and its refusal to suspend work that can potentially yield atomic bombs have already been punished by four rounds of U.N. sanctions, and separate U.S. and European punitive steps.
In the run-up to the report there has been an escalation of rhetoric on both sides.
A senior U.S. military official said on Friday Iran had become the biggest threat to the United States and Israel's president said the military option to prevent Iran obtaining nuclear weapons was nearer.
Israel bombed an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981 and launched a similar strike against Syria in 2007 -- precedents lending weight to its veiled threats to take similar action against Iran if foreign pressure fails to curb its atomic activities.
But many independent analysts see any such mission as too much for Israel to take on alone. Israel lacks long-range bombers that could deliver lasting damage to Iran's dispersed and fortified facilities.
Parsi said U.S. officials tended to view Israeli threats of military action as a pressure tactic to get Washington and Europe to adopt tougher sanctions against Iran.
But it he said would be dangerous to dismiss Israel's "sabre-rattling" out of hand, he said.
"How much longer can this game of brinkmanship ... be pursued before it turns into a self-fulfilling prophecy?" Parsi wrote in an article posted on the website of CNN. (Additional reporting by Sylvia Westall in Vienna and Robin Pomeroy in Tehran; Editing by Mark Heinrich and Kevin Liffey)
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Iranian cleric dismisses "empty" Israel threats
06 Nov 2011 12:40
Source: Reuters // Reuters
* Talk of attacking Iran mounts in Israel
* Iran says foes don't dare strike, fear reprisals
* Cleric says threat is mere propaganda
By Ramin Mostafavi
TEHRAN, Nov 6 (Reuters) - A senior Iranian cleric on Sunday dismissed talk of a military strike by Israel as empty propaganda, taunting the Jewish state for screaming "like a cornered cat" rather than roaring like a lion.
Israeli media have speculated that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking cabinet consensus to attack Iranian nuclear sites as Western diplomats say new evidence that Tehran researching ways to build atom bombs will be published this week.
Some analysts dismiss the speculation as part of a strategy of psychological warfare to raise pressure on Iran and bolster a case for harsher international sanctions sought by Washington, rather than endorse or participate in military action.
"The recent threats of the Zionist regime against Iran are more for internal consumption for themselves and their masters who are struggling with the Wall Street movement," said Ayatollah Mahmoud Alavi, referring to anti-capitalism protests that began in New York and have spread around the world.
"There is a difference between the roar of a lion and the scream of a cat that has been trapped in a corner," he said. "And this threat of the Zionist regime and its master America is like the scream of a cornered cat."
Alavi, a member of the Assembly of Experts, a body that appoints and supervises Iran's supreme leader, said Israel would not dare attack Iran. "If they make such a mistake they will receive a crushing response from the Islamic Republic," he told the official IRNA news agency.
Iran says it would respond to any attack by striking U.S. interests in the region and could close the Gulf to oil traffic, causing massive disruption to global crude supplies.
TICKING CLOCK
Israeli President Shimon Peres said on Friday that Western intelligence services were "looking at the ticking clock, warning leaders that there is not much time left" to stop Iran getting the bomb.
Iran is already under four rounds of United Nations sanctions due to concerns about its nuclear programme, which it says is entirely peaceful. Washington is pushing for tighter measures after discovering what it says was an Iranian plot to kill the Saudi ambassador to the United States.
A new report due from the U.N. nuclear watchdog on Wednesday is set to present new information fleshing out indications of possible military dimensions to its atomic work, adding impetus to the sanctions push, Western diplomats say.
Many Israelis see a nuclear-armed Iran as a threat to their existence. Iranian leaders say they are religiously opposed to nuclear arms and accuse the United States and Israel, which is widely assumed to have the Middle East's only nuclear arsenal dating back decades, of hypocrisy on the issue.
Hawks in Israel and the United States say sanctions have failed and the only way to prevent a nuclear Iran might be a pre-emptive strike -- something many military experts say would be dangerous, difficult and have unpredictable consequences.
"The Zionists and America know putting these threats into practice is very costly, the world will stand against them and that is why they will not do such a foolish thing," Alavi said.
In Paris, French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe warned that military action against Iran's nuclear programme could create a "totally destabilizing" situation in the Middle East and France would instead seek to harden sanctions.
"We can still strengthen them (sanctions) to put pressure on Iran and we are going to continue along this path because a military intervention could create a totally destabilizing situation in the region," Juppe told Europe 1 radio.
"We must do everything to avoid the irreparable," he said. (Additional reporting by Alexandria Sage and Sophie Louet in Paris; Writing by Robin Pomeroy; Editing by Mark Heinrich)
=-==============================
Iran's Ahmadinejad defiant as U.S. raises heat-paper
06 Nov 2011 23:19
Source: Reuters // Reuters
* Accuses Washington of inventing conspiracies
* Says Israel has 300 nuclear warheads
CAIRO, Nov 7 (Reuters) - The United States fears Iran's growing military power because it is now able to compete with Israel and the West, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in comments carried by an Egyptian newspaper on Monday.
Responding to a toughening stance from the United States and Israel against Tehran, Ahmadinejad accused Washington of inventing conspiracies to discredit Iran and sowing discord with its near neighbour Saudi Arabia.
"Yes, we have military capabilities that are different from any other country in the region," Egyptian daily al-Akhbar cited Ahmadinejad as saying. "Iran is increasing in capability and advancement and therefore we are able to compete with Israel and the West and especially the United States."
"The U.S. fears Iran's capability," he told the paper. "Iran will not permit (anyone from making) a move against it."
Iran's Islamic rulers, who say Israel has no right to exist, deny accusations that they are seeking nuclear weapons and have warned they will respond to any attacks by striking at Israel and U.S. interests in the Gulf.
A senior U.S. military official said on Friday Iran had become the biggest threat to the United States and Israel's president said the military option to stop the Islamic republic from obtaining nuclear weapons was nearer.
Ahmadinejad repeated that Iran does not own a nuclear bomb, but said Israel's end was inevitable.
The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, is expected this week to issue its most detailed report yet on research in Iran seen as geared to developing atomic bombs.
"It is Israel that has about 300 nuclear warheads. Iran is only keen to have nuclear capability for peaceful means," he said, accusing Washington of lumping Iran with Syria, the Islamist Hamas movement that rules Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.he said.
The U.S. portrays those four as "the Axis of Evil to save the Zionist entity (Israel). But the Zionists are bound to go out of existence,"
Responding to a U.S. claim that Iran was involved in a plot to kill the Saudi ambassador to Washington, Ahmadinejad said: "Iran is farthest from thinking of carrying out such crimes but the U.S. is always inventing conspiracies against Iran".
"The U.S. fears any friendship between us and Saudi Arabia and therefore incites disagreements," he said. "To stop the U.S. in its tracks we must deepen the elements of friendship... We are ready for this and the relation between Saudi and Iran already exists and has not been cut off." (Reporting by Marwa Awad; Writing by Tom Pfeiffer; Editing by Matthew Jones)
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In recent days, there has been a vociferous interest in Israel, the US and the UK in fanning the flames of Iranophobia in what observers see as a political red herring to engage in a catastrophic war in the Middle East.
The trio, which constitute a vicious triangle in their roguishly Iranophobic endeavors, have manifestly held secret meetings among the top security officials and formed a united front against Iran.
A recent report by The Guardian has revealed that British Chief of Defense Staff Gen. David Richards visited Tel Aviv secretly during the week, held a number of meetings with top Israeli military and intelligence officials and reassured them of Britain's unwavering support in case of an attack on Iran's nuclear sites. Further to that, the British officials revealed that the US government was mulling accelerating plans for targeted attacks on the country's nuclear sites and that Britain was prepared to be part of the plan for a possible attack.
Interestingly enough, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak arrived in London on Wednesday to hold talks with his British counterpart, with Iran of course to top the agenda. The importance of these meetings is that Britain's senior military official had not visited Israel for a decade. So, the recent meetings indicate the cementing security and military ties between the two countries.
Only recently, a senior US military official addressing a forum in Washington said that Iran had become the biggest threat to the United States. “The biggest threat to the United States and to our interests and to our friends … has come into focus and it's Iran.”
Coincidentally (how so?), on the same day (Friday), Israel's president Shimon Peres also stated something virtually to the same effect, saying that the military option to stop Iran from obtaining "nuclear weapons" was nearer.
When asked by Channel Two News if events were moving toward a military option rather than a diplomatic one, Peres replied, “I believe so, I estimate that intelligence services of all these countries are looking at the ticking clock, warning leaders that there is not much time left.”
In this regard, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, a pea in the pod, graced a G-20 summit of world leaders in France with his pithy words, “Iran's behavior and this obsessional desire to acquire nuclear military (capability) is in violation of all international rules. … If Israel's existence were threatened, France would not stand idly by.”
The trio (excluding France) have stepped up their rhetoric against the Islamic Republic of Iran. Threat is not a new word to Iran and the country is prepared for the worst and as Iran's Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi has said on the sidelines of a news conference in the Libyan city of Benghazi, “The US has unfortunately lost wisdom and prudence in dealing with international issues. It depends only on power. They have lost rationality; we are prepared for the worst but we hope they will think twice before they put themselves on a collision course with Iran.”
Time and again, the USA has renewed its hollow rhetoric against the Islamic Republic of Iran, repeating the same allegations again and again and again: that Iran is pursuing a clandestine nuclear weapons program; that Iran is supporting terrorism in the region; that Iran is violating human rights; that if Iran acquires the technology to produce nuclear weapons, it will create World War III.
The recent allegation leveled against the Islamic republic ahead of the next week's report by the UN atomic watchdog is that Iran has “built a large steel container for carrying out tests with high explosives that could be used in nuclear weapons,” and that Iran has made computer models of a nuclear warhead and other previously undisclosed details on alleged secret work by Tehran on nuclear arms.” Allegation comes after allegation against the Islamic Republic and the vicious triangle is forming to set a stage for an all-out attack against the country with the intended purpose of plundering its natural resources.
However, Iran will not sit quietly and leave the invaders in peace.
In August 2011, a top IRGC commander Brigadier General Ali Shadmani envisaged three effective measures to counter any potential act of aggression.
1. As Israel is the USA's backyard, Iran will disturb peace there. (The absence of peace in Israel will certainly deny repose to the USA as well.)
2. It would take full control of the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway where over 40 percent of all traded oil passes (thereby spiraling up the oil prices to a confounding level and dealing a heavy blow to the already deteriorating global economy.)
3. It would keep a close watch on all American military bases in Afghanistan and Iraq. In case of an attack, Iran will cripple the troops stationed in those bases and incapacitate them of any possible move.
In the final analysis, the US hidden agenda in creating Iranophobia is to raise a specter of a nuclear apocalypse in the world, invade the country in alliance with Israel and the UK and other nefarious powers and eventually get their hands on Iran's myriad resources which they have coveted for so long.
In the unholy Israel-US-UK alliance, one cannot say with surety who is the most responsible party for these anti-Iran provocative acts but it seems that the Israeli tail is wagging the US-UK dog.
-- Ismail Salami is an Iranian author and political analyst. A prolific writer, he has written numerous books and articles on the Middle East. His articles have been translated into a number of languages.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/208576.html
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Israel's warnings on Iran get quiet nods in Gulf
By BRIAN MURPHY - Associated Press | AP
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Among the many alliances of convenience in the Middle East, one is so unusual that the partners can barely hint about it publicly: Israel and the Gulf Arab states linked by shared fears over Iran's nuclear program.
While their deeper disputes on the Palestinians effectively block any strategic breakthroughs, the recent warnings from Israel and the West about military options against Iran invariably draw in the Gulf and its rare meeting of minds with Jerusalem.
The Gulf states — a cornerstone for U.S. diplomatic and military pressure on Iran — are indispensable parts of any effort to confront Tehran's nuclear ambitions. And even Israel, which has no direct diplomatic outreach to the Gulf, is likely brought into the Gulf-centric policymaking with U.S. envoys acting as go-betweens, experts say.
"I would be surprised if there is no knowledge about the Saudi positions (in Israel) or knowledge in Saudi of the Israeli positions," said David Menashri, director of the Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University.
It's part of a complicated mix of mutual worries and divergent risks — the Gulf, unlike Israel, has critical commercial and diplomatic ties with Iran — that puts Washington in the middle as the common ally and chief Western architect of pressure tactics on Iran.
The next moves are expected after the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency releases an intelligence report Tuesday to its 35 board members.
Early leaks from diplomats suggest the document will indicate Iran has made computer models of a nuclear warhead and conducted other weapons-related work, which would strongly reinforce suspicions that Iran is working toward atomic weapons. Iran denies it seeks to develop nuclear arms and claims its program, including uranium enrichment labs, is only for energy and research.
In response to the reports last week, Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi accused the International Atomic Energy Agency of giving in to U.S. pressure to level the accusations, which he said were based on fabricated intelligence.
"Iran has already responded to the alleged studies in 117 pages. We've said time and again that these are forgeries similar to faked notes," Salehi told reporters in Tehran.
For the moment, the speculation of an increased threat of military strikes is based on tougher comments by Israel and the West in advance of the IAEA report.
In the latest statement, Israeli President Shimon Peres said "the possibility of a military strike on Iran is more likely to be realized than the diplomatic option."
Peres told the Yisrael Hayom newspaper that Israel must carefully weight all alternatives. "I do not think there has already been a decision on the matter, but it appears that Iran is getting closer to obtaining nuclear weapons," he said in comments published Sunday.
There is no apparent build up or operational changes at bases in the region, which for the U.S. include air wings scattered across the Gulf and the 5th Fleet naval hub in Bahrain. U.S. military planners say they could shift at least 4,000 soldiers to Kuwait after next month's withdrawal from Iraq as part of efforts to boost the Pentagon's already strong presence in the Gulf.
The upcoming IAEA report also must run its course. The U.S. and others hope it will persuade the IAEA board to refer the findings to the U.N. Security Council for possible tougher sanctions on Iran or — as an alternative — a deadline for greater cooperation with the nuclear agency's investigators.
Any scenario, however, will likely shed greater light on common ground between Israel and the Gulf states over how to further isolate and intimidate Iran.
"I would put it this way: The Gulf states, some of them, would like Israel to be more active against Iran, though they would never say it publicly," said Meir Litvak, a regional expert at the Dayan Center think tank at Tel Aviv University.
For many in Israel, the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran is framed in the starkest terms.
Israel is widely believed to have the only nuclear weapons arsenal in the Mideast — although it refuses to either confirm or deny that — and an Iranian bomb would sharply reorder the balance of power and be seen as a direct challenge to Israel's survival.
In a BBC interview aired Sunday, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Iran's actions could open "major nuclear arms race" in the region and give Tehran increased leverage over Mideast affairs. Barak said that "paralyzing" sanctions could be enough to pressure Iran, but that "no option should be removed from the table."
"We live in a tough neighborhood," he said. "No mercy for the weak."
The Gulf's views on Iran are generally shaped by decades-old perceptions that the Shiite-led Islamic Republic seeks to weaken the Sunni monarchs and sheiks ruling from Kuwait to Oman. But the levels of worry vary greatly.
Oman maintains close ties with Iran as co-overseers of the Strait of Hormouz at the mouth of the Gulf, which is the passageway for about 40 percent of the world's oil tanker traffic. Energy-rich Qatar, meanwhile, seeks to build more commercial links with Iran, including a deal last week that could allow state-run Qatar Airways to operate flights within Iran alongside the sanctions-battered Iranian passenger fleet.
Saudi Arabia, the Gulf's main power center, appears most eager to tighten the pressure on Iran.
Its leaders have repeatedly accused Iran of trying to destabilize the Gulf Arab states, including claims of encouraging Shiite-led protests for greater rights in strategic Bahrain. Saudi officials also have not tried to publicly counter the U.S. claims that Iranian agents were linked to a foiled plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington.
In one of the most repeated snippets from leaked U.S. diplomatic cables, Saudi's King Abdullah in 2008 urged a U.S.-led attack against Iran to "cut off the head of the snake" and halt Tehran's nuclear program.
Saudi and Israeli policies also have crossed paths at times in the Arab Spring, with each shaken by the fall of Egypt's Hosni Mubarak and hoping the Syrian protests against Bashar Assad's regime weaken the Iranian influence in the country.
Still, some analysts remain highly skeptical whether Saudi Arabia and its allies would give a nod to an Israeli attack, which could open a wider conflict in the Gulf and possibly choke off crucial oil exports.
"Yes, the Arab and Persian mutual antipathy is legendary. But the question is whether any Gulf state would go to the extreme of supporting an Israeli attack on Iran," said Ehsan Ahrari, a political analyst based in Virginia who taught security studies at the National Defense University. "The Gulf sheikdoms have to think very hard on this issue."
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Iran will respond with steel fist if hit
Thu, 10 Nov 2011 12:07:03 GMT
Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has warned that if any country launches an attack on Iran, it must be ready to “receive firm slaps and fists of steel” from the Iranian Army.
If the idea of invasion against the Islamic Republic of Iran crosses anybody's mind, they must be ready to receive firm slaps and fists of steel from the Iranian Army, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), and Basij, and in one word from the great Iranian nation, Ayatollah Khamenei stated.
Speaking at the Imam Ali military college in Tehran on Thursday, the Leader added that it is not the Iranian nation's wont to invade any country, yet they would respond to any act of aggression or even any threat with full might and in such a manner as to implode the invaders and aggressors from within.
The firm Iranian nation is not the sort of nation that would idly stand by and witness the threats of the hollow powers which are "rotten from within,” the Leader added.
The firm structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the national unity of Iranians are the country's most significant deterrent power, the Leader pointed out.
Ayatollah Khamenei went on to say that in a world where the relations between countries and nations are, regretfully, still determined by force and where the bullying powers want to take the fate of the nations into their own hands, “only those nations that can prove their defensive readiness are safe against any harm.”
The Leader also said that Iran's Armed Forces are unique in both the region and the world, and their defensive readiness, coupled with their faith, is a source of pride for the Iranian nation.
The United States and Israel have repeatedly threatened Tehran with a military strike under the pretext that Iran's nuclear program may have a covert military aspect.
Iran has categorically rejected such allegations and says it only seeks the peaceful applications of nuclear technology and that the International Atomic Energy Agency has never found any indication of a diversion in Tehran's nuclear program.
Earlier, Israeli President Shimon Peres said that an attack against Iran was becoming "more and more likely."
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Blast reported at military base near Tehran
12 Nov 2011 10:48
Source: Reuters // Reuters
TEHRAN, Nov 12 (Reuters) - An explosion occurred at a military base to the west of the Iranian capital Tehran on Saturday, Iranian media reported, giving few initial details.
The student news agency ISNA quoted Alireza Janeh, head of security issues at the Tehran governor's office, as saying: "The sound of this blast came from outside Tehran from west direction.
An explosion has ripped through a military barracks in the western part of the Iranian capital, Tehran, with no immediate reports of casualties.
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Huge blast hits arms depot at Iran military base
12 Nov 2011 11:11
Source: Reuters // Reuters
TEHRAN, Nov 12 (Reuters) - A massive explosion at a weapons depot on a military base to the west of the Iranian capital Tehran on Saturday killed several people and was felt at least 45 km away, local media reported.
The semi-official Fars news agency carried a statement by the Revolutionary Guards which said the blast happened in an arsenal at a base in Bidganeh, near the city of Karaj. Some people were killed, Fars said, without giving further details.
An unknown number of people were killed in a blast that occurred at the site of an arsenal at a Revolutionary Guard military base in Bigdaneh, Iran, west of Tehran on Saturday, the Fars news agency reported.
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ublished 13:23 12.11.11Latest update 13:23 12.11.11
Deadly explosions rock Revolutionary Guards base outside Iranian capital
State media reports several people killed after an ammunitions depot exploded in a base 40 kilometers west of Tehran.
By Reuters and The Associated Press
Tags: Iran
At least one massive explosion at a military weapons depot near the Iranian capital Tehran on Saturday killed several people and was felt at least 45 km miles away, local media reported
The Revolutionary Guards - Iran's elite military force - said a munitions store at a base in Bidganeh, near the city of Karaj, had exploded, according to a statement carried by the semi-official Fars news agency.
In this Sept. 22, 2011 photo, members of Iran's Revolutionary Guard march just outside Tehran, Iran.
Photo by: AP
"Around noon today there was an explosion in one of the arsenals belonging to the Revolutionary Guards near Tehran," Fars quoted the statement as saying. Several people had been killed, Fars said, without giving further details.
The blast was so big it was felt in western suburbs of Tehran, 45 km away, witnesses told Reuters. Many assumed there had been a low-level earthquake. Some media reports said the initial blast was followed by a second explosion.
There were no reports linking the blast to any air strike or other attack. Tension has risen in recent weeks between Iran and its enemies Israel and the United States, which have not ruled out striking nuclear facilities they believe are working towards making atomic weapons, a charge Tehran denies.
On Oct. 12 last year a similar blast at a Revolutionary Guards munitions store killed and wounded several servicemen in Khoramabad, western Iran. Authorities said that explosion was an accident.
In recent years several mysterious explosions took place in military installations in Iran. Two years ago 20 people were killed in a similar blast at a base 500 kilometers southwest of Tehran. According the Washington-based Global Security Institute, the base was used to assemble and store long-range Shihab-3 missiles.
Foreign media has reported in the past that the Israeli Mossad backs certain opposition activists and underground movements, and uses them to carry out attacks. Iran has blamed the CIA, Mossad and British intelligence in backing Jundollah (God's soldiers), a group which has waged a low-level insurgency in recent years. Its members accuse Iran's mostly Shi'ite government of persecution and have carried out attacks against the Revolutionary Guard and Shi'ite targets in southeastern Iran.
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Blast at Iran military base killed 15 - official
12 Nov 2011 12:50
Source: Reuters // Reuters
TEHRAN, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Fifteen Iranian servicemen were killed and several others seriously wounded in an explosion on Saturday at a military base near Tehran that happened as troops were moving munitions, a Revolutionary Guards spokesman told state TV.
"My dear colleagues in the Revolutionary Guards were moving munitions in one of the arsenals at that base when, due to an incident, an explosion happened," Ramezan Sharif told news channel IRINN.
"Some of the casualties are reported to be in a critical condition," he added. (Editing by Sophie Hares)
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