FRIDAY, Aug05/ 2011
15:20
Re: The BIG BANG theory
Pittsburghguy
15UP
Good morning GRH1, I also share much of your view. My input is that after being an investor here for many years and without regard to the failed takeover of the company when their focus was Algeria, I have never before thought that a substantial takeover attempt was just around the corner. I now believe that to be the case, prior to year end. Keep in mind the standard advice as to never invest in a company because you think it will be taken over and we have not, we have done so based upon fundamentals. It is just that it is the same fundamentals that has attracted us all will finally seduce(To lead away from duty, accepted principles) one of the majors or nationals or both.
==
15:06
Sell 20p NEXT!!! THE WORLD IS ENDING!!!
3Dimensional
12UP
that got your attention didnt it
Its really quite easy to put momentary fear in to the human species isnt it?
Ok now that your pulse is restored please read on.
Thats exactly what these current Market conditions are designed to do, put fear into you!
Along with that we get the parasitic deramping bottom feeders, trying to use their scaremongering tactics used by the press and Anal-ists so as they can gather more momentum to their short positions or gain more stock for their employers hedge fund or bank.
The fact of the matter is, we the PI are easy game for them, easily robbed of our shares and very easily led to believe the worlds at its end.
Lets face it, the world stage has been prepared for sometime against what was thrown at us last week, the big boys new this was coming and IMHO collectively arranged an assault on the most popular PI based shares and when they got the green light from the mouth pieces of the world, they used this Market turmoil to camouflage their activities.
Is it highly illegal? You bet it is, have they got away with it? You bet they have, will the FSA intervene? You bet they wont, unless every member of iii emails the FSA and alerts them to their suspicions i doubt they will, so you could say theve got away with it.
Kinda makes me laugh, we hurl abuse and use the ignore and report posters to neighbourhood watch to get them banned for deramping our stocks and so on, yet when its blatently obvious that our stocks were targeted by funds or mass HNW individuals we do jack sheet about it!
((HNW, Inc. (HNW) is a strategic marketing company based in New York, NY. Founded in 2001, HNW is a provider of strategic and interactive marketing solutions for wealth management firms and luxury brands. HNW is focused exclusively on rich people and offers consulting and creative services.
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Im sure from Thursday afternoon onwards their was a pattern into the trigger of the fall in SP, im also quite sure persons whom frequent or post on these boards directly or indirectly had something to do with it.
What was Einstein Mikey A doing in the time? Normally updating us about irrelevant L2 data most days every 5 minutes, yet when we really needed his analysis of what was going on what was he doing!? Surely he would have seen all this happening before his flashing L2 screen!
Anyway, dont have nightmares as the derampers would like you to do, weve already taken the hit so nothing much other than a steady rise up till the news influx from GKP, then BOOOOOOOM, to the moon time
I really cant see how a moody US downgrade of one A, from a moody company can have any relevant downgrade to the billions of barrels of oil GKP have found to date, can you?
Fear is our biggest enemy and only you can negate that fear.
In till the lights go out, come what may.
3D
===
14:05
Re: The BIG BANG theory
rollthediceagain
8UP
oh...and some people were commenting re the wording of most recent RNS....re 'not production yet'...and taking those words as negative
IMO nothing can be further from the truth...
one needs to read a sample PSC to see why that is so
----
I presume this comments relates to the fact if GKP are exporting the clock would have started ticking on the PSC production phase which is for a finite term. It's not actually in their/our interest to do so until they can start at much higher production levels than 5000bopd given field size.... unless the KRG are prepared to extend licence period.
==
13:55
Re: The climate is against us
Dalesmann
6UP
Hi Serlingstuff
And in that 50years you site the price of oil will double , treble, quadruple and it is why Sinopec was willing to pay north of $6/boe for Addax reserves when the price of oil was $50!
The price of oil has doubled since then!
LOL
"why the hell is there not massive II interest "
There is massive interest but it isn't from PIs.
IMHO II's have been hovering up shares GKP over the last week. They have been very active in the market - I got this from a fund manager yesterday who was also buying.
We are indeed seeing the transfer of shares from PIs to IIs - and the process is accelerating.
But this is not where the real interest is .
At this very moment IMHO, NOCs and IOCs are interested in GKP.
They would be stupid if they weren't. as the for sale sign is clearly up in neon lights on the largest oil find discovered in recent years.
I would be gob-smacked(Flabbergasted, astounded; speechless or incoherent with amazement. (1985 —) . ) if we were not under the very best electron microscopes of multiple major oilers.
This is the ONLY interests that counts.
Once someone , some organisation jumps the SP will rocket and the interest in GKP will become apparent as if from nowhere.
The trick in these conditions is to be a lille bit contrarian.(One who takes a contrary view or action, especially an investor who makes decisions that contradict prevailing wisdom, as in buying securities that are unpopular at the time.)
Buffet got this right - buy when fear rules.
BUT Warren always did do his homework,
He ALWAYS valued on fundamentals,
He then took out a big position ,
He then waited.
He positioned himself in the market early and often when all others were running for cover.
That's why in simplistic terms he is a billionaire.
His method isn't rocket science - it rests on hard work in ferreting out the fundamentals coupled with VISION and then he acts - usually against the prevailing market sentiment.
I have to say that I am 'naturally bright! '
and in the University of Hard knocks I have had to be pulverised before I have learn't Buffets simple lesson. :0)
Chopper me young mate - well done for looking beyond the fear and doing your own research - constructing your own spreadsheet - and sticking to your guns.
I admire this approach in one who is, I suspect , much younger than I am.!
In this way you will probably avoid the bumps and bruises I have had to endure because I failed to learn!
If only I had done the same at your age.
Many thanks for todays discussion - it's not an argument.
I see such discussions as key to the success of this BB .
12:47
Re: The climate is against us
Dalesmann
16UP
Afternooni chopper
Strewth! You are even more conservative than me!
Adnan's recent article talks about 5b of reserves at Shaikan.
It is the most up to date figure we have and has not been refuted by GKP .
So the OIP fig at Shaikan is 15b using John Gs 33% recovery statement. (Why use any other figure - it comes from the horses mouth!)
These then are the figures that I use because these are the most up to date figures that have come from the company.
If you are working under news suppression conditions which limits both the timing and content as I believe we are currently experiencing in Kurdistan, how do you get around this news problem?
You will note that there has been news paper articles added to the website. This is how TK is getting the info out.
This is why I have amended my own OIP figs to take into account Adnans comments.
Valuations can be formative or summative. I use the former you are using the later - nothing wrong with that- but it does IMHO put you behind in the game.
Even so using your own $2.6 / barrel fig I still get north of £9 before any political risk is applied (which I actually think is closer to zero than 30%!).
Dalesmann
46UP
Hi ChopperX89
The current market cap is £784m
From my spreadsheet there are 7633m barrels attributable to GKP over all 4 blocks
This gives us a valuation of $0.17 /barrel
This is a crazy, totally ludicrous sum to value our assets on and there will be a correction on any TO
The TO will be valued on the assets.
GMP valued PCIs barrels in Kurdistan at $5.2 (page 4)
I currently use just over $4/barrel which gives us a target price of £14.37
If you want to attribute a 30% political risk this reduces the valuation to £10.06
Which is why I say that I am looking for north of £10
This isn't a figure plucked from the air like those of the doom and gloom merchants. It is a figure based on factual fundamental analysis.
These figs are far below GMPs valuations which were on a blocks that are much less prospective than GKPs.
Keep the faith!
Dalesman
Kind regards
Dalesman
===
13:21
The BIG BANG theory
GRH1
34UP
All...
there have been many posts of late re BoD silence...
is it good/is it bad etc?
FWIW=For What It's Worth ..I have spent many hours putting myself in Todd's shoes...as it were and trying to fathom the deals that he and advisors will currently be structuring...or may have structured
Now you are not going to like this...and I apologise...
because I am going to say that,although I am pretty sure that I have worked it out...
and I would love to tell you my thoughts...
these BBs are being inevitably read by highly 'interested' parties
and for me to spill the beans re likely deal play will surely take advantage AWAY from GKP and hand it to the other parties involved...
IE to do so will cost me (and others here) money...so not a great idea, you would agree
However...if my theories had led me to the view that TK et al would sell out for the sort of figures talked about on the BBs...I would have merely maintained my holding here...
to the contrary...the holdings have further increased of late
Some BB posters have suggested that a lowball bid of £x will be ACCEPTED by them
IMO...this is nonsense...
it might be ACCETABLE to them
but they will never get a chance to accept such bid...
as the BoD will simply not put it to the shareholders...
and ...were a potential acquiror ...or acquirors...to go 'hostile'
( which I consider most unlikely)
they would be faced with both GKP's advisors seeking alternative bids ...
IE running a several month value maximisation programme...
and ALSO the KRG ...
as it is, in part, in the gift of the KRG as to WHO is to acquire GKP or any part thereof
I can tell you that my theory involves GKP being far ahead in the sales process..
and VERY far ahead of much of the BB chat
the theory also involves GKP greatly expanding its operatorship...
the KRG being enormously keen to see production climb
oh...and some people were commenting re the wording of most recent RNS....re 'not production yet'...and taking those words as negative
IMO nothing can be further from the truth...
one needs to read a sample PSC to see why that is so
Sorry to be a bit obtuse..(Lacking quickness of perception or intellect.).
but there are a couple of people on here (with whom I am in touch privately) who share my views ...
Regards
GRH1+
===
13:04
Re: Knee-jerk panic then rally?
Hub
15UP
the markets have been pricing in quite a bit over the last 7 months.
One astonishing fact that still remains a difficult one to fathom is that the global benchmark index in the US is just under a rather petty 1% down in 2011.
Up until this week, the DOW was still blue for 2011.
I'm not saying that it hasn't got some catching up to do - just questioning why all this 'panic' seems to be filtering through the popular pi stocks and not the DOW?
The DOW was near 6000 in the dark lehmans days. This was due to a credit shortage fear.
We now have fears over 'servicing debt' yet know full well that it is a short term issue which should go away once 'growth' returns.
Japan is a classic example of a ten year plus recovery - it got there in the end.
The markets seem so intent on wanting a 2 year recovery back to normal when in reality, does it really matter whether it takes 2 years or 5years or 10? Just as long as that debt can be serviced - it's doable.
Fact - the DOW is just short of it's 2010 highs. Whilst the markets have clearly wiped out most gains made by small caps in 2010 and even approaching 2009 in some cases - there is a good argument for stating that most of this debt crisis fear has already been priced in.
Remember - the darkest days are always just before the lightest emerge.
I remember the markets being at 'the world is nigh'(Near in time, place, or relationship:) situation in Feb 09. In just 6 weeks, most equity prices had doubled or even trebled. Barclays from 45p to 180p in under a month etc.
There may be more pain ahead - but we are far from being at the beginning of it - and 'in my opinion' are well and truly in the thick of it now.
Ironically - for once, the US may actually notch up some strong GDP figures for the last Q of 2011.
If the DOW was at 8000 right now, then I reckon most equities today would be fairly priced. But it's not. And yet equities are acting like it is.
Something is very out of balance.
Finally in terms of GKP. It doesn't matter what the equity market prices us at. It's all about what some IOC will pay to get TK and co plus us shareholders to hand over the keys.
HUB
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12:27
Re: What are you afraid of?
daeyeon
9UP
Nice one,
'I invested in GKP. I did not invest in a Market.
I invested in the project. I did not invest in the fluid and fallible emotions of fellow investors.'
Sums it up for me.
'Project', that's it. The project is on going, arguably barely started, although I doubt GKP will have time to finish it, they'll be gone, and we'll be looking for other boards to read.
Many suggested that at 140p, 160p that GKP was undervalued. What was it at 80 / 90p? Grossly undervalued for sure.
Car ownership has risen in the BRIC countries, South East Asia, in recent years, there is plenty of demand for oil and its by-products. Don't forget the by-products. It's not called black gold for nothing. It has more or less kept its value historically with gold
The video below highlights this, although it refers to gold with the subsequent comparison to oil. Oil in real terms holds its value, and has always been in demand. Sure, oil prices go down, but they eventually bounce back, the world can't produce oil at $30 and be profitable. Well, maybe we can with us being onshore and thus easier than say Shale in Canada or deep sea in the Gulf of Mexico as examples. . GKP could be profitable through the bad and good times. What an attraction that would be to multinationals or NOCs!
Wow! America has been down graded by S&P. If they hadn't the ability to print their own money, with the dollar being the reserve currency, with their level of debt (which is rising, not being tackled), it would have been done yonks ago. Should have happened yonks ago.
The dollar has been debased for a few years now eh, but a lower oil price would perhaps stimulate growth, perhaps a helping hand in deleveraging, deleveraging the stock market purchasing mechanisms available, would help the world economies long term.
What will happen on Monday, panic selling? Maybe. But why sell on Monday if you haven't done so already? Is a quid( cut) fair value for GKP? Of course not, and even less so when one considers the potential over the next few months with the drill bit. Sell Monday, for then in a week or two later, a month or two later, the fed to introduce QE3 in some form? With an election next year, would Mr. Obama like to see the markets in turmoil. I'd like to think he'd like to see a few signs of recovery before he goes to the polls. Previous presidents have.
Sell Monday? What price will it open at? 90p? Sell at 85p and hope to get back in lower? Is it worth the risk? Do you NEED to sell? As Bonobo said, "Project". Are you in for the project or not? Why did you invest?
2008, the market eventually bounced back, 1929? It eventually bounced back. 1980s? Yes, bounced back. America saw 21 recessions in the 21st century. They had a couple of double-dips in 1949 and 1980-82. It's not alien.
It's happened through history, but they eventually bounce back.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_economic_crises
So, on Monday the market will know that America (only S&P) is AA+, not AAA. End of the world? European woes have so far been priced in, otherwise we'd be priced at more than a quid. China is in growth, they'll take over as the power of this century, just like America took over from Britain before.
We could see America inflate itself out of trouble, it's taking longer than expected, but China will continue to rise, and oil will hold it's value in real terms with a few flutuations on the way.
Sell at 80p on Monday? No, I'll look to buy just like last week at 92p and 95p for the long term prospects and the project.
====
chopper89x View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted today 11:56
Subject The climate is against us
Opinion Strong BUY
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 10 times.
Message
My timeline for holding gkp has just been extended, In all honesty I was expecting a takeover in Q4 this year and for it to come at a fairly nice premium but not the numbers that people are expecting , Perhaps it may of just been for shaikan for around £4bn or around £5.10/share which I feel may have been entertained.
However I worry that if any takeover attempt is to come this year it will not be anywhere near the figures we are hoping for, as in the short run (3-6 months) we are likely to see a depressed dollar and a depressed oil price , ok yes when doing due dilligence on shaikan they will factor in future macro forecasts , but they will also use the current climate as a reason to reduce the amount offered.
I now also fear given the depressed sp that , that dreaded lowball offer could be possible, could TK adequately protect us from it ? and if so how?
The Recent price paid by afren for their kurdish interests I feel really does not reflect favourably depite gramachos post on 27.07.11 especially as the bada rash and ain sifni Psc is a lot more favourable than shaikan and sheikh adi.
I think we are likely to see OIp grow substantially over the next 30 days or so but given the climate and the political front i see the discontinuity between actual and real value growing further and further apart as at current numbers we are valued just shy of $1/bl potential reserves or if we do indeed have 5bn reserves as adnan states then this drops to around 46c/bl RESERVES but the discount seems to be sliding downwards the more Oil we find ,
Im not looking forward to the short term as i still see the oil law as some time away I just hope we make it through and really have time to show the world just how big this field really is and prove to be the biggest short term success Aim has ever seen i.e. 5p-£10 in 3 years.
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The WORLD has just CHANGED
Chicago Jack
25UP
bbwoof.. The rating agencys have about as much credibility as the people who employ the Mexican who jump the fence. I agree with a few of your observations- what I would say is some rich American land owner or businesss owners employs the Mexicans and others who are illegal immigrants workers. By employing them- they deprive the FED of taxes, so its a about time these employers- if you can call them that were prosecuted and locked up. They are as guilty of the systemic problesm as the mexicans and others who jump the fence.
Having seen many hardworking American familys suffer from not being able to pay the medical costs of the nasty insurance companys who should be closed down- I have some symphay with the hard working man and woman on Main street who did not creat the problem- but have been left to pick up the massive bill that Paulson and his cronies left. Have you stood in an American Hospital and seen a family be told there mother neeeds medical treatment to save her life- and the insurance comapny refuse-I have and its heart breaking. Big business in the Pharmacutrical and insurance industry as brought America to its knees- these people who need medical treatment to save there lives can no longer work and pay taxes- most have to file for bankrupcy as there medical bills are so huge- due to the Insurance companys refusing to cover them-even thought they were happy to take the money off them for years.
Someone created the mortgage packages and the rating agencys were keen to approve them as they made billions if not trillions.
America is not backward at comming forward and telling the world its where opportunity is created and its eceonomy is the best in the world- yet American companys sit with $2.75 trillion in bank accounts and wont employ American people- yet they will outsource American jobs to india etc.
Everyone as to tighten thier belt- but its my personal opinion that the ordinary man woman and child in the USA did not creat the problems and are they have been left with the debt soley created by Wall street, the major banks and most of all the Credit rating agencys. How did Republicans and Democrats allow such a situation to occur- well thats simple- they were have meetings with lobbyists and getting paid to turn a blind eye, while filling there pockets.
The banks and credit rating agencys own rating is ZZZ- its not the fault of hard working Americans.
Regards
CJ
====
My thoughts
peakyblack
30UP
What a week! I was watching closely what unfolded on Thursday and to me it was clearly triggered by the other big PI names, CHAR, RKH, RRL etc. GKP was holding pretty firm and then these names started to get hammered which caused a waterfall of margin calls. Kind of a self fulfilling prophecy really. I expect the big CFD, spreadbet brokers started closing down GKP positions as peoples calls exceeded available cash on these other names which in turn started the waterfall of margin triggers at GKP.
Anyway, slightly annoyed with myself as I couldn't get the cash into my share account this week to make the most of this turbulence ( I don't and will never use the margin facility. If I don't have the funds in my account to buy then I can't afford to buy is my policy). Anyway, this is now rectified so I'm ready for opportunity next week.
What I would say to all those who are concerned is this:
1) The Federal and regional governments are still working on the oil and gas law. Turbulent markets or no turbulent markets when this is agreed GKP flies and those big oilies looking to replace reserves or in my opinion Sinopec will buy us or Shaikan at an agreed price. Might as well own the field your going to put a pipeline through.
2) Recession or no recession big oil has big money to spend, it's not a luxury item it's a necessity
2) We know there is lots of news in the pipeline and it's going to involve increasing oil numbers at the supergiant Shaikan field. At some point I'm sure GKP/KRG will decide to let us in on the news rather than using journals as some kind of code. Adnan Samarrai isn't talking about 5bn barrles of reserves that aren't real
3) We know China are involved in Kurdistan (Sinopec) and they are looking to add reserves to fuel their slowing but ultimately huge economy
4) Regardless of what happens to oil prices short term, long term they will increase and this makes such a huge readily extractable resource very valuable indeed
5) Take comfort in the fact that even and this will not happen, GKP sold Shaikan on at $1 a barrel of reserves you would still make over £2 a share
6) Take comfort in the fact that we will be exporting 10k BPD by the end of the year. By the time we have used up our $171mn (April 2011) of funds we will be self financing by way of the cost payback mechanism so should not need the markets and further dilution
7) Lastly, I think of all the AIM companies to feel confident in at this time this is it. Well capitalised, an easily accessible elephant oil field. A country that wants to increase exports quickly
One last comment -Senn after all your attacks on GKP I do find it somewhat ironic that you decided to buy back in just before the price gets hammered and then start pumping it. Sort of funny.
Good luck all, remember we're talking essential oil, not luxury items here
====
The last 9 Months....
scaramouche
68UP
As a follow-up to the latest excellent posts by both Pittsburghguy and Bonobo77, take a look at the progress in GKP’s fundamentals over the last 9 months....
• 9 months ago – 6/11/2010 GKP SP 190p, Market cap £1.4 billion, Shaikan 1.9 billion OIP(P90)
No Iraqi Government, No exports from Kurdistan, Sheikh Adi 3 months into the drill.
• 6 months ago – 6/2/2011 GKP SP 170p, Market cap £1.3 billion, Shaikan 1.9 billion OIP (P90)
Iraqi Government formed, Kurdish exports just started, Sheikh Adi 6 months into the drill.
• 3 months ago – 6/5/2011 GKP SP 157p, Market cap £1.2 billion, Shaikan now 4.9 billion OIP (P90)
Further political progress, Kurdish Exports 100,000 bopd, Sheikh Adi 9 months into the drill.
• 1 month ago – 6/7/2011 GKP 142p, Market cap £1.1 billion, Shaikan 4.9 billion OIP (P90)
Oil &Gas Law drafted, Kurdish Exports 150,000 bopd, Sheikh Adi nearing TD.
• 1 week ago – 30/7/2011 GKP SP 139p, Market cap £1 billion, Shaikan 4.9 billion OIP (P90)
Oil & Gas Law under review, Kurdish Exports 180,000 bopd, Sheikh Adi results imminent.
• Thursday - 4/8/2011, GKP SP down to 113p, Market cap £0.9 billion, 12 month anniversary of SHEIKH ADI starting.
• Friday - 5/8/2011 GKP SP down to 103p, Market cap, £0.8 billion, Shaikan 4.9 billion OIP (P90)
Oil & Gas Law still under review, Kurdish Exports nearing 200,000 bopd, Sheikh Adi results overdue.
• Today - 6/8/2011, 2 year anniversary of Shaikan Oil Discovery.
• Next week, next month... who knows!
Sheikh Adi oil discovery announcement,
3D seismic results - Shaikan 15 billion OIP (confirmed), Sheikh Adi 5 billion OIP (confirmed),
GKP exports of 5000 - 10000 bopd (confirmed),
Bekhme -1 results
BIRs confirmed
Oil & Gas Law agreed.
Just imagine where the GKP SP and Market Cap are going to be then, and forget where it is right now?
Sometimes, to put it simply, the MARKETS somehow get it WRONG!
And IMHO, they have been getting it very badly wrong... for the last 9 months!
GLA, scaramouche
====
Changes for GKP for the Investor.
MikeyAdmin
21UP
As Investors in Shares, we have entered a painful period, caused by outside forces.
Being Investors in Oily's, it's one thing suffering from finding no Oil, but GKP has more than enough.
That does not mean we are exempt from from Market turbulence, though GKP are in a better state than many Oily's.
**Has anything changed for GKP as a Company.
In a single word. NO.
This whole Financial mess is not an attack against GKP, and as Investors, the Share Price is a transient means of getting from on point to another, which Investors should know and recognise
GKP has not stopped, and it’s still implementing its Work Program
Fully Funded until Q1 2012, plus Exports will increase that Funding
The OIP still stands at a MEAN of 5.9bb
The OIP will increase over the next months.
SA-1, SH-2, SH-4, and AB-1 Drill bits are still turning.
3D Siemics are still to come.
At some point, GKP will be taken over, which is why we hold GKP Shares, then we will get our reward
In the other hand, for the SP, Yes.
The Financial mess has hit all stocks very hard, and GKP is not in a bubble, so we know it has already effected our Investment.
**With the S&P down rating of the US to AA+ have further effects for the Share Price.
Sorry to say, it probably will.
Across the whole Markets, there may be a further fall on Monday, which would take GKP with it.
**What can we as Investors do.
Not very much at this point in time.
IMHO, with Hindsight, the time for selling was on the 22nd July, when it spiked to 148p.
Also in Hindsight(Perception of the significance and nature of events after they have occurred.), there has been other times at lower prices to sell, all leaving one the ability to buy back lower, gaining shares.
Not being one with Hindsight, it is now too late to sell for me.
**If further news does not come over the weekend, what could happen on Monday.
If the price falls in the first few minutes, Margins may be hit, and may start a waterfall effect.
Trying to sell by O trades would go to negotiated trade as panic selling sets in.
Phones will be jammed, not allowing you to catch the price you want.
If you do manage to sell at a reasonable price, then there may be a sharp bounce, and catching the bottom and trying to buy back may give you the same problems.
My advice is to clear your stops, cover your Margins, and Hold
For those who did sell earlier, and new Investors , the present Share Price or lower represents a fantastic opportunity to be part of exceptional and fortunate E&P Company.
For those who bought higher than the present Share Price, my sympathies are with you seeing a loss, though remember it's a Paper Loss, and all I can say is that Prices will recover in time.
Hurting and Holding Strong & Long.
Mikey.
PS. For the Wacko’s.
Not one of you could name one single cause of the present fall before it happened, so forget me selling my shares to help your shorts.
PPS. Back to Time Team.
=====
chopper89x
MikeyAdmin
11UP
I don't do Charts, nor Spread Sheets, too owd for both.
Charts are based on ones own interpretation, and spread sheets are based on some known some unknown assumtions.
LOL, I'm not saying I take no notice of either
I base my Investing on continous research from this board and other sources, to arrive with my expectations for a Takover price and time, based on factors relating to what Oil is worth.
My time has not changed, which is July 2012, a short time in investment speak, and my expectation is upwards of £10, though I'll be happy with what I get when Todd say Yea.
Daily movements I base on facts from L2, trying to be ahead of the game, sometimes successfully sometimes not.
Fast forward 12-18 months for Shaikan and Sheikh Adi, and 3 years for Akri Bijeel possibly Ber Behr, and the reserves attributed to GKP will be beyond certainly my dreams.
This is an ever evolving story, and my problem is, as we do not know the bigger picture, will GKP be around at those points in time, I very much doubt, plus how will my health be.
Add into that without taking present Market conditions into account, why is GKP valued so low.
IMO, there is more to the share price than meets the eye, of which we are not privy too.
Until matters/facts become much clearer, I continue to hold.
19
Can GKP legally hold back RNS?@ CJ
MikeyAdmin
Every Kurdistan Invester should read the following link to DNO's Contract, to which GKP has signed a similar one and has to work under what is specified in it.
IMO, it has been modelled on Petroleum Contracts all over the world.
Page 33
http://screencast.com/t/qr2AVusPnv
http://web.krg.org/uploads/documents/01_DNO_Contract.pdf
Hmm. Litigation Page 47.
Nothing remarkable though
http://screencast.com/t/y6lFLATIx
Mikey
===========
Hold Staying long term
papillon77
8UP
I have posted here very infrequently over the past two years bit I have appreciated many of the informed comments from posters who have clearly carried out immense amounts of research on GKP. I have obviously kept abreast of GKP's reserves and the political situation etc
However, even I am confused by the size of the drop in the SP. It has dropped far more than the FTSE and to me there is no reason why this should be so.
It's now more than 30% in under 5 days!
Of course we have the EU debt problem, the downgrading of the USA' s credit rating and the fall in the oil price but surely for GKP the fundamentals haven't changed?
We were not exporting huge amounts of oil and what we have is still in the ground!
I am averaging £1.60 after having made a tidy profit from previous sales. There is no way I am selliing to lose £9k. I just do not understand why people are selling on a dip in the market (albeit a large one) just to let the professional investors make a nice profit when the market returns.
===
Market Panic: Be Brave... Buy Cheap Shares
http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2011/08/08/market-panic-be-brave-buy-cheap-shares.aspx?source=ufwflwlnk0000001
BY
Maynard Paton
Published in Investing on 8 August 2011
The time to buy shares is when everyone else is selling. What are you waiting for?
==
to buy or not to buy...
Fordian
6UP
...that is a dumb question IMO. This is essentially the bargain of the century! When the world around you looses its head, that is exactly when you buy!
3 years ago I did blooming well in the drawn out panic attack that took hold of the markets. I followed each and every (sound) bank that was shorted like crazy, buying at bottom (not always) and then the same with the life insurers. Fundamentals were completely ignored in the smash and grab that repeatedly took place. Same is happening again!
I thank my lucky stars that some on here are being spooked and selling up, and I know many are in pain as you haven't been able to cover your positions, but surely this is a wake up call for you to change your trading strategies?
I bought a bunch of shares just last week at 1.41 and was happy at the time....but I just bought another bunch at 1GBP. I cannot believe how lucky I am. Oil is in the ground, in the pipes and shortly in the tankers heading to the main export pipeline. TK is dropping hints left, right and centre about consolidation and people are dumping the stock?? mental IMO.
GKP have the largest find in 2 decades and people cant see the value? You really should not be investing if you don't know how to value a company. When I started learning to trade, I made many mistakes and was the typical 'emotional' investor. There comes a time when you mature and step back - that's when you make money. Good luck to all long term holders and any of the new ones with the balls to buy in now... You wont regret it!
Fordian
===
BP secures ‘blood for oil’ deal in Iraq
The British Petroleum (BP) oil company has managed to take a stranglehold on the Iraqi economy, which amounts to a ‘blood for oil’ contract, leaked documents show.
The oil giant originally signed a deal in 2009 to be in charge of the country’s largest oil field Rumaila, but introduced new clauses into the contract, based on which the Baghdad government agreed to pay the British firm even when oil is not being produced by the field, the Guardian reported.
The added terms, which are considered by critics as a major step away from the original terms of an auction deal signed in the summer of 2009, allow BP to be paid even if the oil stops flowing – whether from government decisions to cut production, strikes or any other disruptions.
“Iraq’s oil auctions were portrayed as a model of transparency and a negotiating victory for the Iraqi government,” said Greg Muttitt, author of Fuel on the Fire: Oil and Politics in Occupied Iraq.
“Now we see the reality was the opposite: a backroom deal that gave BP a stranglehold on the Iraqi economy, and even influence over the decisions of OPEC” [Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries], added Muttitt.
The contract is yet another sign of what was always the goal of big business to trade blood for oil in the Iraq war.
The oil industry provides 95 percent of Iraq’s foreign earnings and there are plans to lift Rumaila’s production almost threefold within the next three years from its existing level of 1m barrels a day.
Rumaila, which is 20 miles from the Kuwaiti border, already accounts for 40 percent of Iraq’s total output and even before expansion produces almost half the total output of the UK North Sea fields. Growth to 3m barrels a day would make it 50 percent bigger.
MOL/HE
View full post on North Sea Oil Industry – Yahoo! News Search Results
====
All planned?
abu azaan
hedgies bringing market down to close day before fed to meet - I read an article last week sayijng the market needs to fall another 10-15% before it'll make the fed act and everyone know this. hedgies will be prob pick up bargains tomorrow and then go long.
no way will they let the US go into recession again.
fear currently rules the markets but underneath it seems like this is all planned
====
The Cart before the Horse
MikeyAdmin
7UP
Time to get things the correct way round.
Nothing can happen with GKP without KRG approval, and ultimately the ICG
If anyone thinks that with Oil Fields the potential size of Shaikan, Sheikh Adi and Ber Behr, is a matter of Government importance, not just GKP, and there would not be a Qualifying System, then think again.
Any sale of the GKP Blocks, will be conducted by the KRG with GKP & ICG approval, but after the Oil Law comes into force.
There will be no silly offers, it will be an out and out Auction IMHO, conducted in 2012.
Time to think outside the box, and think what the total worth will be to a Consortium, including the 15% BIR's, and the KRG 20% for the GKP Blocks, and Ber Behr as a whole.
Ignore the goons and wacko's, let them lose out.
Mr Time
===
Re: DOW -600
Arundallio
7UP
""double dip recession is now very likely....god help us all.""
Floydy get grip man
Do you think there is correlation between the DOW or FTSE falling and a double dip recession? Commentators are slip 3 to 1 against a recession. Data is showing no recession but a little albeit small growth. If anything the fall in energy prices if the hold at lower rates will help prevent a recession. China will probably report slow down tonight and that will be jumped upon by the markets but slow down in China is still strong growth in most countries.
There is no single logic or rational for this sell off other than a multi faceted swell of emotion and herd instinct. Yes there are a variety of significant and real fears but each of them is in reality being addressed with concerted action to ensure they do not come to fruition. Most companies and banks even have their debt levels and costs under control. Lloyds profit for example is up when you strip out one off costs for Product Insurance Costs. The fear factor of what might happen is the principle driver in this sell off which is again being magnified by technical issues such as margin calls. One commentator today said that much of the DOW falls to day in early trading was margin calls. Later trading was sentiment after concerted buying as the market recognized cheap stocks of sound companies.
With regard to GKP yes financial meltdown is a fear but not for another year as they are fully funded.
Its hard to see how the sell off is going to halt as the market is not listening to the world leaders , economist or commentator. Institutions are making a fortune trading up and down in one day up to 20 times a day on an individual stock. Thats why volumes are so large. 17 billion in US.
Its hard to visualize the what messages from leaders and markets will turn this around as it is so wide a sentiment based sell but they certainly have their attention focused not in Europe and US to find the correct words and policies to bring financial stability and at a faster pace than they would have liked.
With regard to my own investments I have wittled them down over the last 3 years from a portfolio of 30 to 4 all of them based on companies which are well funded and low risk in terms of assets and production.
I am going to sit tight and play the long game which for me ideally is still short term in Feb 2013.
A
=====
Vallares.....Hub
MikeyAdmin
7UP
With respect.
Vallares cannot afford GKP, there is no way they could. There's no point in going down that road.
The Blocks GKP has, are in the sweet spot, and way to highly prized by much bigger much more higher financed IOC's and NOC's which Vallares cannot hope to compete with.
GKP has the KRG as a partner, who want the maximum for their BIR's and 20% interest, and to see GKP succeed.
IMHO, GKP's share of Shaikan, Sheikh Adi and Ber Behr will go to Auction, governed by the KRG.
The KRG and ICG want, na, "need" far bigger players in Kurdistan now, having been "proven" to have massive amounts of new oil, than Vallares can hope to be.
Why on earth should the KRG and the ICG, even contemplate allowing an Investment Vehicle into any License at this stage. Even one with Tony Hayward at its helm.
What would it gain.
1st Vallare would have to set up an Office in Erbil (required by the contract)
2nd, they would have to set up a Drilling Company, and get all the staff required for that, when they are at a premium.
3rd. Vallares would not be buying an E&P Company with Genel, as Genel is an Investment Vehicle that has been slow exploring BB.
4th Logistics would have to be set up, which Genel hardly has, as its an Investment Vehicle as well.
With the KRG, I imagine once bitten twice shy about Investment Vehicles turning E&P Company
Thought through carefully, (which you have omitted to do) there are so many reasons why Vallares may not succeed gain entry into Kurdistan
IMHO, Vallares is too late.
I'll wait for more concrete evidence before saying Vallares have got into Kurdistan, than media speculation.
As far as Sinopec is concerned, or any other IOC or NOC, this is not Kurdistan 2005 or 2007 when the KRG was desperate to get Investment.
Kurdistan has almost come of age, and Licenses are not a few $m any more, and I expect far higher prices to come in future.
Maybe July 31st was the cut of point for cheap entry, and now its all about consolidation, and Vallares acquiring Genel would not be considered as Consolidation IMO
Mikey.
=====
http://www.kippreport.com/2011/08/leap-of-faith%E2%80%94kurdistan-foreign-oil-deals-could-ignite-power-shift-in-iraq/2/
differences between Iraq’s central government and Kurdistan over revenue-sharing.
Gulf Keystone chief financial officer Ewen Ainsworth said he was encouraged by parliamentary debate on the oil law, which he called “significant progress”.
Even without the firmer guarantee of a new oil law, the Kurdistan-focused explorer said it considered the KRG contracts legal.
“The stumbling block is more a political stumbling block, rather than a factual, legal stumbling block,” Ainsworth said.
Iraq’s parliament last month warned the government it would force through a new draft of the much-delayed oil law, if the cabinet further held up the original legislation.
Payments in May to foreign oil firms for exploration and extraction costs have been based on an interim agreement.
Iraq’s Deputy Finance Minister Fadhil Nabi said KRG authorities received $234 million as a first loan to pay foreign firms on condition they submitted all receipts and details of exploration costs.
“Kurdish authorities must submit receipts of foreign firms costs so a second payment could be made and that has not happened yet,” Mahdi said.
Still, the payments already made could be incentive enough for other oil firms to take the calculated risk of moving into the region.
“Oil majors have managed to access the largest oilfields in southern Iraq,” said Nazar Mahdi, an expert with Iraqi Oil Ministry. “Small companies seeking deals in Kurdistan may feel getting in at the start improves their long-term prospects.” (By Sarah Young and Ahmed Rasheed; Additional reporting by Barbara Lewis in London; Editing by Anthony Barker)
====
Leap of faith—Kurdistan foreign oil deals could ignite power shift in Iraq
http://www.kippreport.com/2011/08/leap-of-faith%E2%80%94kurdistan-foreign-oil-deals-could-ignite-power-shift-in-iraq/
August 9, 2011
Eager to grow, smaller foreign oil firms sign deals with Kurdistan despite the semi-autonomous region’s prolonged deadlock with Iraq, which refuses to recognise any Kurdish deals.
Reuters
print | email | discuss
A batch of oil deals signed last month in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region could herald further investment, even though a prolonged political and legal deadlock between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government is far from over.
Oil company confidence in the region has grown since May when producers began to receive payments for exports after months of haggling between the central and regional governments.
Small and medium-sized oil companies Britain’s Afren, US firm Hess Corp, Irish oil explorer Petroceltic and Spain’s Repsol all entered agreements with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) last month.
“Despite the absence of solid legal background for Kurdish deals, small companies are still taking their chances,” said Hamza al-Jawahiri, a Baghdad-based oil analyst. “This is clearly a gamble.”
Underscoring the continued tensions, Iraq has excluded energy companies with contracts with the Kurdish region from participating in the country’s fourth energy bidding round, which is expected to take place in January.
“Nothing has changed. We still consider contracts signed with the Kurdish region illegal and every energy company involved will be blacklisted,” Abdul-Mahdy al-Ameedi, the director of the Iraqi oil ministry contracts and licensing directorate, told Reuters.
“There is no chance left for these companies to work with the oil ministry.”
Semi-autonomous since 1991, Kurdistan has enjoyed more security than the rest of Iraq, where the central government is fighting insurgents and militia more than eight years after the US invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.
The Kurds and Iraqi Arabs have a long territorial dispute over areas of northern Iraq, and Baghdad and the KRG still disagree over the legality of contracts signed with foreign firms and over revenue-sharing.
A lot is at stake.
The KRG puts its territory’s reserves at 45 billion barrels. The figure has not been independently verified, but if accurate, it would mean Kurdistan has more oil than the North Sea has produced over the past 40 years.
PAYMENTS BREAKTHROUGH
Samuel Ciszuk, senior energy analyst at IHS Global Insight, said the beginning of payments in May — even though they only cover costs — was “an important breakthrough”.
“I think people are feeling emboldened, especially small or medium-sized companies that are seeking to grow,” he said, while acknowledging there were still “huge stumbling blocks”.
Many analysts said any bets on normalisation were for the long term. The immediate motivation was the desire for a possible springboard into Iraq and to book reserves in a world where opportunities are scarce and powerful national oil companies increasingly dominant.
Oilfields in Kurdistan differ from Iraqi assets as the contracts allow oil firms to book reserves, helping to satisfy shareholders hungry for signs of reserves growth.
Afren’s Chief Executive Osman Shahenshah said the acquisition in Iraqi Kurdistan would materially boost reserves.
“We’re becoming a billion barrel company from 137 million barrels at an acquisition cost of well under $1 a barrel,” he said. “I’m pretty bullish that it’s moving in the right direction.”
DISPUTED TERRITORIES
Iraqi Kurdistan’s oilfields saw little development during the Saddam era.
Since the dictator was ousted in 2003, companies from countries ranging from Turkey to China to the US have moved in the region, even though the risks loom large.
With US troops scheduled to withdraw from Iraq at the end of the year, disputed areas over
===
An Unashamed Blatant Transfer,......
ChapinAfrica
12UP
.....of money and shares, stolen from the poor, and transfered at a great discount to the rich.
Hmmmmm...rings a Bell....Medieval Times again.
What you can see visually and graphically occuring on our inner city streets, is what has been going on in the markets, except those guys are much better dressed, and faceless.
Muster all your resolve, and try to distance yourself from the chaos, this will all be over very soon, and do not sell or up your Golden Tickets without the fight of your life.
Good Luck to you All.
CiA
===
From Bloomberg:
Kurdish Oil Exports May Rise After Revenue-Share Pact, FT Says
By Alan Purkiss
Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Iraq’s central government may reach
an agreement with the Kurdistan regional government by the end
of the year guaranteeing Kurdistan about 17 percent of the
country’s total oil revenue, the Financial Times reported,
citing an official at Kurdistan’s oil ministry who asked not to
be identified.
That official described an agreement negotiated in
February, under which Kurdistan receives half of the revenue
from the oil it exports, as a “confidence-building measure,”
the newspaper said.
A revenue-sharing agreement may lead to an increase in oil
exports from Kurdistan to 1 million barrels a day by 2015, the
FT said.
Kurdistan has about 45 billion barrels of oil and between
100 trillion and 200 trillion cubic feet of gas, according to
estimates by Ashti Hawrami, the natural resources minister in
the Kurdistan regional government, the newspaper said.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Alan Purkiss in London on +44 20 7330 7760
or apurkiss@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Colin Keatinge at +44-20-7673-2494 or
ckeatinge@bloomberg.net.
======
NW GKP meet up review from today
grimbeaver
23UP
Today was the first meet up of the North West GKP luncheon club and 8 of us turned out, with a special guest appearance from no other than Mikey admin.
We had a very pleasant and relaxed couple of hours chatting the pros and cons of GKP and I for one learned from it.
I will leave the discussions alone and only want to make a couple of points from the meeting.
1, All of the people there today were very confident in GKP and where the company was heading and I for one will be making further investments.
2, Mikey admin in my opinion he is a decent bloke and does not deserve some of the criticism he receives from some members of this board. He was very honest and open with everyone and for that gains my trust and respect. Thank you for taking the time today Mikey.
It was great to put faces to nicknames of some future potential millionaires and it came as no surprise that none of the deramper/Gkp antagonists turned up to put a viewpoint forward.
GB
=====
http://iraqidinarnews.net/blog/2011/08/13/a-new-draft-of-the-oil-and-gas-law-to-parliament-first-reading-now-planned-for-next-week-after-being-postponed-thursday/
* A new draft of the oil and gas law to parliament; First reading now planned for next week after being postponed Thursday
AUGUST 13, 2011 LEAVE A COMMENT
Source: Dinar Daddy’s Tidbits
URL: http://theiraqidinar.com/2011/08/12/a-new-draft-of-the-oil-and-gas-law-to-parliament-first-reading-now-planned-for-next-week-after-being-postponed-thursday/
12.08.2011
Despite the importance of a oil and gas, Iraq still does not have a law regulating this vital sector.
The push to postpone the adoption of this law for four years, the Energy Committee in the Iraqi Council of Representatives to submit a draft of a new law, hoping to contribute to raising the level of Iraq’s production of crude oil, and solve many problems, most notably the dispute between the KRG and the federal government on oil investment in the region .
Iraqi Council of Representatives and during Thursday’s meeting decided to postpone the first reading of the draft of the new law, and expect Congress to be discussed next week. The House of Representatives warned the government earlier this month that he would approve a new oil law has been delayed considerably if the government continued to impede the primary legislation, which sees investors basic guarantee of stability.
The head of parliament Osama Najafi, saying that the Energy Commission representative proposed the new draft and if the government continued to postpone the law of oil and gas in Iraq Vsaamada parliament ahead with the adoption of the new draft law.
Iraqi MP Mohammed Salman said that the Council decided during Thursday’s session to postpone the first reading of the bill to receive the further discussions and exchange of views for approval, stressing that the law will pass the presence of consensus or political than others.
The issue of oil contracts concluded by the Kurdistan Regional Government, where disagreement between Baghdad and Erbil over the past years, especially since the Iraqi government refused to recognize these contracts, which described it as a illegal, and hopes politicians and specialists to solve the new bill if passed these differences.
Member of the Commission on oil and gas, MP for the Kurdistan Alliance bloc Bayazid Hassan explained to Radio Free Iraq that the draft new law to ensure joint management of the file of oil between the federal government, regions and provinces, pointing out that includes the formation of a tripartite committee comprising the Minister of Iraqi oil, and Chairman of the Commission on oil and gas representative, the Minister of Natural Resources in the Kurdistan region, to examine the contracts entered into by the Government of the Territory.
Bayazid Hassan also pointed out that it was reducing the number of members of the Federal Council for Oil and gas in the new draft law, and that the fields oil-producing and discovered no longer belonging to the Iraqi National Oil Company as they were in the draft law before. agencies Arab News quoted Adnan al-Janabi, head of the oil and energy in the Iraqi parliament confirmed the importance of restructuring the Iraqi National Oil Company and the need for a federal law for oil and gas.
The Iraqi government approved In 2007, a draft law of oil and gas in Iraq’s new but has encountered opposition in parliament and was once again the government to enter some amendments. Ali Hussain Balou, Advisor to the Ministry of Natural Resources in the Kurdistan Region and Chairman of the Commission on oil and gas in the parliamentary session, the first explained the reasons for objection to the parliament on the law of oil and gas was developed by the Iraqi government.
Iraqi MP Nahida Daini confirmed that the 60 deputies from different political parties signed a draft of the new law, and confirmed support for mass and the Kurdistan Alliance bloc to pass, and expected to be discussed next week. and MP from the coalition of the state of law Falh that the law will not pass If approved by the National Alliance, calling not to subject the law of oil and gas to the political debate.
Ali Hussain Balou, adviser to the Ministry of Natural Resources in the Kurdistan region expected to see a draft law of oil and gas new objections by the Iraqi government, stressing that it has the consent of the Kurdistan Regional Government.
In light of the conflicting statements and positions of representatives of the political blocs on one of oil and gas ruled out a political analyst, professor of political science at Baghdad University, Hamid stated that the law recognizes new oil and gas, despite its importance to Iraq’s economy, if continued differences.
========
7,000bpd From Swara Tika-1 Discovery Well
Posted on 12 August 2011.
http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2011/08/12/7000bpd-from-swara-tika-1-discovery-well/
Hillwood International Energy, an independent oil and gas explorer from Dallas, Texas, and Marathon Oil Corporation, another independent, based in Houston, Texas, have gauged a large oil discovery on the Sarsang block north of Dohuk on the Zagros fold belt in Iraqi Kurdistan, according to the Oil & Gas Journal.
The total flow rates in the three zones of the Swara Tika-1 discovery well was more than 7,000bpd of light oil, plus gas. Equipment size and capacity limited the flow rates. The well was drilled to a depth of 12,500ft and found 1,500ft of gross oil column.
===
01:40
Hold GKP
MikeyAdmin
17
After much puzzerling and watching this stock for over two years, I've come to the conclussion that the SP is meaningless.
I've just watched the CNN Interview again, and IMO, TK issued a warning in that CNN Interview by saying "we have to control Invester expectations".
While making that statement, he forgot to elaberate.
He could have gone further and said,
"we will control the SP by various methods", "one of them will be the Alpha Tools, Donny and Maria, who will continually say you are all crazy, will not recognise the amount of Oil GKP has, and call you all muppeets"
"we will also instruct the Institutions when to buy and when to sell, when to open shorts to frighten folks from buying, so that we remain in control of the SP and in control of YOU and YOUR expectations.
If the SP gets over 160 and stays over 160, I'll be relieved and surprise. In fact I'll be so bloody surprised, I'll be laughing my bloody head off.
I'll start the ball rolling.
Christmas Day's SP, I say 175p.
Then July 2012 to Christmas 2012, GKP will disappear in a puff of Corporate manourvering & Fifty Pound notes.
Then some of us will immediatly be admitted to the loony bin, and those with wifes,... well,... those wifes will reap the benefits of our bloody patience, then the rest will remain shell shocked, suffering dilussional thoughts of being bloody rich, looked after by a nurse paid by our brokers, probably a right bruiser.
I promise you, nothing stronger than Twinnings Assam Tea has passed my lips.
Come on Todd, if only for our sanity, lets have over 200p.
Mikey
========
Shaikan to be Sold Off.
paulf38
15
After all the current drills on shaikan's field are finished GKP are going to sell off shaikan for a few billion so they can fund drills on the other fields and pay Excalibur.
Expect Aug 2012/Sept 2012 for Shaikan to be sold off. With the money they will get from the sale, court case will most likely be won in Exc's favor. Will need to pay Exc. 30% of shaikan profits. That will leave GKP enough cash in place to drill on the other fields.
IMVHO
====
Marketing...
wtrade
9
Hi there,
How familiar are you guys with the principal of Marketing?
Marketing is making aware and repeating an opinion/product/view so that others buy or take it in.
By repeating and answering to the Thread 'Shaikan to be sold off' you clog up the board with an opinion of which we all IOO know it's false information and therefore nesting an idea in peoples head "Is it true? blablabla...". Why do you even bother responding?
Why on earth would sell smething like Shaikan except as part of the T/O?
Anyway, today's my last day in the office...ever . Why? Because I don't listen to c4rp like that .
AIMVHO,
wtrade
===
Who would take £5 now
Kandymans1
17UP
Will u ever fc uk off with your 5£.
Spent weeks going on about 5 £ then spent weeks telling everyone to sell . Now back to 5£ again.
Biggest clown on iii.
Yes I should use ignore button or not respond but on this occasion iv decided to let myself down
In case there are newbies who might actually take you seriously.
Who would take £5 now
Chicago Jack
16UP
KM, can you give senn a £5.00 not to post-perhaps be the best £5.00 you will ever spend .
Regards
CJ.
No offence senn but best put a 2 in front of 5 next time
WHY TAKE £5 WITH £10 ON TABL...
Gekko_2011
10UP
IMO when the offer arrives it will be much closer to £10 than £5
senn you have been spouting £5 for months if I didn't know better I would say you were a paid basher it's almost as if you think by trying to inprint the £5 figure into other posters psyche when a £6 or £7 offer arrives others think it's a reasonable offer.
When in actual fact it's all academic since any offer will have to be approved by the BOD as well and they will require a figure based on the proven OIP figure not some random figure plucked out of the air
I just wondered why it is we can go for weeks with barely a mention of a TO figure then you arrive for another round of your £5 nonsense
do you really think the BOD would consider £5PS while other companies with far less OIP have been bought for £15+
IMO based on TK's recent statement an offer will be on the table within 12 months could be much sooner depending on the news flow in the next few months and it will be much more than £5.
===
Everybody laughed...
Dalesmann
78UP
Theshipscook
Same pattern over on Advfn. If I wasn't paranoid I might think that it is all part of a well defined strategy.
:0)
I do think that time is short as far as GKP is concerned and we will come under increasing pressure from various directions to sell our shares.
Fear, mis direction, manipulation, lies, short selling, selective so called 'facts', old news, old issues, an increase in new posters crying ,doom is upon us, doom I say. doom' , negative chartism, etc is going to be unleashed upon us in the coming weeks.
We will need to stick together!
Regards
D
====
The End Game
MARKETCHASER
13UP
It strikes me, as a frustrated and long term holder here that despite all the ramping by those who believe that this is the most misunderstood stock on the planet - a fact I actually concur with incidentally, the fact of the matter appears that unless and until a formal offer for the company is received and an announcement to that effect is made, we are not going break above £2.00 in my opinion.
The ongoing delays, bickering and posturing by the politicians will continue as will interest in the region for all the obvious reasons but if those 41 companies looking to join the party collectively demanded remedy on the Oil Law and cast iron guarantees, before confirming their interest in the next round, we could see the long overdue rerating but history has and continues to show us that however many additional billions of OIP that are announced, we will continue to stumble along while the drill bit continues to deliver numbers way beyond any of our comprehension. I am fed up watching, reading and feeling frustrated by the delays in political resolution and hope that the end game is near.
===
y Well it makes me feel good . . .
garykgaryk
33UP
An American 'life style guru' once told me 'If you want something badly enough, put a picture of it somewhere in your house where you will see it at least twice a day' . . .
That was some years ago, but I remembered it when I started investing my pension through a SIPP following 3 years consecutive falls in the hands of fund managers.
THIS IS NOT A PRESS RELEASE (WELL NOT YET ANYWAY) - JUST MY IDLE THOUGHTS ABOUT 2 YEARS AGO . . .
It hangs in my kitchen, below the picture of the property I've always wanted to own . . .
*******************************************************************************************
21st March
GKP - Chinese takeaway!
The Bermuda based Kusdistan oil explorer has found a few billion barrels too many . . .
Gulfkeytone Petroleum has become the latest course for an insatiable(Impossible to satiate or satisfy: an insatiable appetite; an insatiable hunger for knowledge.) Chinese appetite - even they might feel full after this tasty morsel!(A small piece of food.)
GKP, who recently announced a total OIP in excess of 23 billion barrels, may be swallowed up by the Chinese for a tasty £8.5b, valuing each share in the exploration company at £17.85 - a price that is not expected to give any investor indigestion.
Trading in GKP's shares was suspended today pending review by the board and the outcome of intense negotiations betwen the parties.
A spokesman for GKP said,'at this stage nothing has been decided but the offer is close to the £20 figure TK and the board were working for'.
It is expected the deal will close before trading recommences and private investers can look forward to a return in excess of £19 per share - available 2 years ago at only 13p.
******************************************************************************************
You may laugh and think - what an ar5e hole - but you know what - I feel good every time I catch a glimpse of it.
You may be able to tell - I am hear until T/O
GLA
garyk
===
Author scaramouche View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted Sunday 11:23
Subject Everybody laughed...
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 97 times.
Message
I feel that I have to challenge the notion that ‘managing shareholder expectations’ has been relevant to the performance of GKP’s SP, since TK’s famous interview back in November 2009.
This is how I see it...
5 August 2009 - GKP’s SP 13p.
6 August 2009 - The ‘transformational ’ Shaikan oil discovery’ announcement.
25 August 2009 – GKP’s SP 100p, nearly 700% up on where it had been only 3 weeks before.
22 Oct 2009 - GKP announced that DGA had confirmed 1 to 5.3 billion barrels at Shaikan with a mean of 2.8 billion. The SP had risen to a peak of 130p 2 days earlier in ‘anticipation’ that news was coming.
23 November 2009 - GKP SP hit an intra-day high of 124p, as they released the ‘Further Triassic Discoveries’ RNS. This is how they summed it up.
Todd Kozel, Executive Chairman, Gulf Keystone Petroleum, stated:
"Shaikan-1 has exceeded the most optimistic prognosis held at the start of drilling. Each phase of drilling has resulted in significant discoveries, and any one of the several target layers of the Jurassic or Triassic intervals contain, by any measure, outstanding volumes of oil-in-place. It is our belief that the aggregate volumes suggest an even larger future potential."
"The high pressure oil and gas encountered at TD provide an excellent appraisal target and give strong grounds that the Permian layer, below the Triassic, should be subject to early exploration."
John Gerstenlauer, Chief Operating Officer, said:
"The upper Triassic oil and condensate finds announced today, with their associated gas volumes, will be invaluable in the development of the Shaikan discoveries. The excellent permeabilities encountered throughout the well, combined with the availability of significant quantities of gas from the upper Triassic, encourage us to believe that industry average recovery factors (30-35%) might be achievable in the various reservoirs of the Shaikan-1 exploration well. This theory will be evaluated further during the upcoming extended well test."
It could not have sounded more positive, and it was no surprise that Todd appeared two days later, 25 Nov 2009, on CNN.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVXyfvPfC7M
There were some great quotes - “Oilman’s dream”, “the Gulf Keystone Effect”, “the most popular person at the dance right now”, and the commonly referred to “Managing people’s expectations”.
But here is what TK actually said:
“We have had to take a position early on - newsflow, announced just when possible, just the basic facts, to manage people’s expectations, to keep the markets informed, and don’t let the story run away with itself.”
Such comments suggested caution and realism. But most people don’t remember the comments any more – they simply recall TK’s uncontained and infectious enthusiasm, his Cheshire cat grin, and the “potential 10-15 billion barrels” referred to, which was actually stated by the reporter (although not denied by TK).
But the City and the Markets had yet to be convinced, and IMHO the relentless bashing began in earnest no sooner than the CNN interview had ended.
GKP was down to 90p on 31 December 2009.
The first half of 2010 was worse. No-one had anticipated the impact that Iraq’s political disagreements would have and the time it would take to form a Government. The bashers were in their element, and the price fell further to 65p on 1 July 2010, exactly half of what it had peaked at on 20 October 2009.
But it was at this point that the real disparity between GKP’s real value and the SP became most apparent, and we then saw a rapid rise over the next 4 months to an intraday high of 203p on 3 November 2010.
It was not however until Ryder Scott, in January 2011, confirmed DGA’s figures of 4.2 billion OIP (P50) as correct that the City was forced to accept what DGA had said one year earlier.
The Iraqi Government too was finally in place so things seemed set to move forward... were it not for Excalibur!
Excalibur of course was a double-edged sword – it was undoubtedly a barrier to possible predators, but it also helped to keep the SP artificially low. And just like the failure to form a government was used as an excuse for the decline in the SP in 2010, Excalibur was used as the explanation for the first half of 2011.
For me, though it cannot fully explain what then happened.
On 14 April 2011, the figures for Shaikan were upped massively - from 1.9 billion to 4.9 billion (p90), from 4.2 billion to 7.5 billion OIP (P50), and from 7.4 billion and 10.8 billion (P10), based on another DGA report.
And it would be easy to miss that the report also mentioned 15 billion OIP on a P1 basis, which I believe was the first time we had ever seen this figure from GKP.
*** The failure of the SP to respond to the massive increases reported in that RNS has probably been the most striking anomaly in market reactions to good news that I have EVER seen ***
Still, we are now approaching completion of Shaikan-2, with a realistic expectation that, not so long from now, the next step up the ladder will be reached.... as the old P10 of 10.8 BILLION barrels OIP will become the new P50. I would not be surprised too if the P10 basis then also rises to 15 BILLION.
Yes, a full 20 months ago, all the talk was of “10-15 billion barrels OIP”, and that TK had allowed his own enthusiasm to get the better of him. Everybody laughed then, but no-one is laughing now!
So, I really don’t believe that TK has been managing expectations in relation to the SP – I think it has simply been all about managing them only in terms of ‘expected OIP’.
And IMHO, GKP has known for quite some time exactly what it has found – but, as in November 2009, TK is simply allowing "the story to unfold". I don't think the next chapter is very far away
GLA, scaramouche
==============
Excalibur of course was a
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Sun 10:47
Beckhme, + some light sweet talking ....
MrAverage1
52UP
Information back in November when Proactive interviewed John Gerstenlaur may hopefully bear fruition very soon regarding the current exploratory drill nearing TD soon (if not done so already and testing) at the large Beckhme structure.
In comparison, it's worth remembering that the original baby AB1 (the foothills prospect on the Bijeel acreage) is the smallest of all structures' in GKPs portfolio at 21 KM2 yet we had a significant discovery P50 of Petroleum Initially in Place ( PIIP) of 2.4 billion barrels.
Looking at MOL's official announcement on AB1 back in March .....
...."the calculated petroleum initially in place (PIIP) at P50
is 2,419 MMBOE in the Jurassic formations of the Bijeel structure."
No mention here of the Triassic or the Permian, JUST the Jurassic.
To help quantify MOL's PIIP comment .........
Petroleum-initially-in-place quantities may constitute potentially recoverable resources since the ESTIMATION of the proportion which may be recoverable can be subject to significant uncertainty and will change with variations in commercial circumstances, technological
developments and data availability. A portion of those quantities classified as Unrecoverable may become recoverable resources in the future as commercial circumstances change, technological developments occur, or additional data are acquired.
The Beckhme anticline is 4 times larger than AB1, so obviously such a large asset carries high expectations here too. The AB1 2.4 bln figure is a substansive volume of oil derived from such a small structure and bodes well in light of John's connective comments to Beckhme. The following may just be a clue from John G as to what we may hopefully expect.
From the original video link below, please fast-forward to 2 minutes.
The conversation swings to the Akri Bijeel structure, having just tested AB1.
John G ......"Bijeel is quite a bit deeper - the Cretaceous there is a good, almost 2000 metres deeper than the Cretaceous at Shaikan .........
"The oil there tends to segregate - gravity wise. The heavier oil falling to the bottom and the lighter stuff rising to the top. Bijeel (AB1) is basically the southern edge of the Beckhme structure ....which is a huge - huge anticline in that area.
What wev'e done (with the AB1 drill) is basically pinned the southern end of this field (Beckhme), so the rest of the field is way way above us. Right now our current thinking is that the light stuff is up above us and we just hit the heavy tail-end, kind of the the bottom of the tank."
Interviewer ....."so the sweet stuff is there somewhere ?"
John G ......." Oh Yes"
2 minutes in ......
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/591/john-gerstenlauer-of-gulf-keystone-petroleum-says-a-full-appraisal-of-the-shaikan-field-will-be-complete-in-2012-.html
***************************************************
As per previous with AB1 - expect a laboured and no rush approach via news from MOL on Beckhme. And when these results eventually do come our way I expect an abridged, economical and thrifty announcement again.
However, IMO the wait will be worth it and counter balanced by another class asset to be added to the ever growing GKP portfolio.
Lol the sp reaction will doubtless peak up on the day and subsequently fall back as per usual just like ALL other successful announcements, true inherent value will only be attained in a far off country liberated away from this AIM - within a quiet room behind closed doors containing Kozel & co, the KRG, and a prospective new owner.
The unfolding story is testing and the current market cap belies little of the latent potential here, the market's on ALL continents have undervalued similar potential on countless occaisions before - so it's important to focus beyond these current incidentals. If your here til 'end game' it helps to treat these muddled middle sections as inconsequential.
Unti then gla,
===
Re: SH2 news can't be far away now
Push2Gush
19UP
I truly believe the Triassic holds something significant through Shaikan, with well design on SH2 set up to cope with just about anything the Triassic can throw at it from previous attempts & knowledge gained, then this could well be the Gene from Shaikan's lamp, the indications from previous attempts must have given them enough to invest with conviction for this deep drill which will have added significantly to the typical costs incurred on SH1 & 3, this belief & justification is supported to a higher degree by the spud rns on SH4 which is also a Deep appraisal well, up-rated well design is right from surface to eventual T.D, therefore SH4 will already be incurring a higher cost/drill.
I can honestly say that in all my industry years, I have not come across drilling plans that include hope/maybe in the plan, initial indicators/information must have been VERY justifiable for further investigation not just on one well but the two that are currently drilling SH.
I truly feel there is going to be some significant upside from this provided they have everything they need to cope with what they get.
P2G
=====
Re: A typical GKPier portfolio and strat...
optimisticalways
30UP
Great post by Bonobo,
These quotes are my business mantra and particularly relevant to GKP as it is 100% of my stock market portfolio. I am semi-retired really and have a few off market investments left in property/businesses I sold (things I can tangibly control).
Why only GKP, because with the amount I have invested it needs 100% of my focus for research etc and as I have a life and I don't have time to out that amount of effort into anything else, nor would I invest without that. My strategy has always been clear, I have never bought anymore on the euphoria, never diverted and I am as sure as I have ever been re any of my business decisions that this will be an astounding outcome.
my top 3 rules
1. Never invest what you can't afford to lose
2. Never take your eye off the ball, that includes when on holidays I'm afraid.
3. If you are an investor ignore the sp (too many non related variables) and concentrate on the fundamentals.
Well done fellow investors, GKP is 1 of the best out there at the moment. imvho
Opti
x
====
A typical GKPier portfolio and strat...
bonobo77
39UP
Don't invest a single penny into a stock until you've done your due diligence on it and aggregated your own opinion from many sources of information.
Be absolutely sure that you are either a trader or an investor and behave accordingly. Never confuse the two.
Never risk what you cannot afford to lose.
Set targets and stick to them.
When investing, be sure that you can afford to hold the company long enough to achieve your desired return.
Know the value of what you hold and don't allow yourself to get into a situation where you are forced to sell it too cheaply.
Understand that a good company does not become a bad company in a bearish market. Similarly, a bad company does not become a good company in a bull market.
Popular advice, especially to newer investors, is to spread risk across many companies and a diverse range of assets. But provided you've done your research and provided you monitor the fundamentals of the companies you're invested in, I'd be inclined to hold as few companies as you can comfortably tolerate.
These guys think likewise:
"Concentrate your energies, your thoughts and your capital. The wise man puts all his eggs in one basket and watches the basket." - Andrew Carnegie
"Diversification is an admission of not knowing what to do."
-- Charles Loeb in 'The Battle for Investment Survival'
"You can’t produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant."
-- Warren Buffett
"Remember too that it is dangerous to start spreading out all over the market. By this I mean, do not have an interest in too many stocks at one time. It is much easier to watch a few than many. I made that mistake years ago and It cost me money."
-- Jesse Livermore, "How to Trade in Stocks"
GKP is 85% of my portfolio.
==
Licensing contracts, oil deals with Iraq...
SpikeyDT this user is in your favourites list
6UP
http://alrayy.com/28813.htm
http://onedinar.forumotion.net/t34967-licensing-contracts-oil-deals-with-iraq-the-losses-and-deprive-him-of-the-post-earnings#82741
http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=ar&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Falrayy.com%2F28813.htm
August 14th, 2011 Posted in NEWS (Iraq & World Currency)
A source familiar with the details of transactions in the oil licensing
round, the changes which affected the contracts signed after the announcement to
the public, came in later periods for signature.
According to the
informed source, the impact of these changes are concentrated on the transfer of
most of the significant risks that are supposed to is the responsibility of the
investing companies, to the Iraqi government, adding that this was the way
followed by the ministry in order to attract companies to accept these prices
and these formulas failed investment.
And reveals the source of
what happened behind closed doors between the companies and the Iraqi government
and the government has done at the expense of the Iraqi people to make contracts
more attractive for the acceptance of those born companies. The first contract
is a contract Rumaila was re-negotiated again after being granted a period of
three months with the Iraqi government and BP / CNBC Consortom, have varied
contents of the contract for its shape which was first announced on auction
day.
The changes in the contract, signed after the announcement,
according to the source familiar with it, five fundamental changes, all of which
had to pay the government for investing companies. The source says that
if restricted by OPEC in the future shares of Iraq’s oil sales, the Iraqi
government will pay for my company (BBC / CNBC) The degree Tantjana actually not
as much as sales, meaning they are not responsible for the sales volume but the
volume of production, the cost of lack of production share in the government
with the company invested.
If they can not accommodate the Iraqi
infrastructure for transport and export of oil the size of the actual production
of the contracting companies, the government is forced to pay for these
companies according to the quantities declared in the decades of oil production,
even if companies produce that amount, and this means that the new contract
involves the Iraqi government in all the details risks that may occur in the
production process. But if it prevented natural disasters, industry
events, wars, and terrorist incidents (force majeure) of oil production for 90
days, For the Iraqi government compensate the two (BP / CNBC) for the loss of
Dkhalehma.
The source notes that instead of sharing the losses
and pay half the loss of the Iraqi government agrees to full compensation, while
the companies share the loss with the Iraqi government in the other conditions
were the first companies bear the entire loss.
M. J
===
الأحد 14 آب 2011
صفقات عقود التراخيص النفطية تحمل العراق الخسائر وتحرمه من المشاركة بالأرباح
متابعة - وارع-
كشف مصدر مطلع على تفاصيل الصفقات النفطية ضمن جولة التراخيص، ان التغييرات التي طالت العقود بعد إعلان توقيعها على الملأ، جاءت في فترات لاحقة للتوقيع. وبحسب المصدر المطلع، فان تأثير هذه التغييرات يتركز على نقل معظم المخاطر الكبيرة التي يفترض ان تقع على عاتق الشركات المستثمرة، الى الحكومة العراقية، موضحاً ان هذه كانت وسيلة اتبعتها الوزارة من اجل جذب الشركات للقبول بتلك الأسعار وبهذه الصيغ الاستثمارية الفاشلة.
ويكشف المصدر عما حصل خلف الأبواب المغلقة بين الشركات والحكومة العراقية وما فعلته الحكومة على حساب الشعب العراقي لتجعل العقود اكثر جاذبية ولقبولها من لدن تلك الشركات. العقد الاول هو عقد حقل الرميلة الذي تم اعادة التفاوض حوله مرة أخرى بعد منحه بفترة ثلاثة أشهر مع الحكومة العراقية وشركة بي بي/ سي ان بي سي كونسورتوم،وقد اختلفت محتويات العقد عن شكله الذي اعلن عنه يوم المزاد.
اما التغييرات التي طرأت على العقد، بعد إعلان توقيعه، فهي بحسب المصدر المطلع، خمسة تغييرات اساسية، وجميعها توجب على الحكومة الدفع للشركات المستثمرة. ويقول المصدر انه اذا ما قيّدت منظمة اوبك مستقبلا حصص العراق من مبيعات النفط، فان الحكومة العراقية ستدفع لشركتي (بي بي/سي ان بي سي) مقدار ما تنتجانه فعليا وليس بقدر المبيعات،اي انهما غير مسؤولتين عن حجم المبيعات بل حجم الانتاج،وتكلفة النقص في الانتاج تتشارك فيها الحكومة مع الشركة المستثمرة.
اما اذا لم تستوعب البنى التحتية العراقية للنقل والتصدير النفطي حجم الانتاج الفعلي للشركات المتعاقدة فان الحكومة مضطرة للدفع لهذه الشركات وفق الكميات المعلن عنها في العقود من انتاج النفط، حتى وان لم تنتج الشركات تلك الكمية، وهذا يعني ان العقد الجديد يشرك الحكومة العراقية في كل تفاصيل المخاطر التي قد تطرا على عملية الانتاج.اما اذا حالت الكوارث الطبيعية،الاحداث الصناعية،الحروب،والحوادث الارهابية (القوة القاهرة) من انتاج النفط لمدة90 يوما، فعلى الحكومة العراقية تعويض شركتي( بي بي/سي ان بي سي) عن فقدان دخليهما.
وينوه المصدر الى انه بدلا عن التشارك في الخسائر ودفع نصف الخسارة توافق الحكومة العراقية على تعويض كامل في حين تتشارك الشركات الخسارة مع الحكومة العراقية في شروط اخرى كان الاولى بالشركات تحمل كامل الخسارة فيها.
===
US Level 2
MikeyAdmin
2UP
http://screencast.com/t/KoJh2ltRxbW
Above is a screenshot of the US level 2 and the information they see.
As you can see, unlike our L 2, all Orders are named.
Amongst those named, there are various types of MM's and private users.
No need to go into who they are in the US, but Wholesale and Retail are the main ones on the GKP Book.
WINS is the Retailer for the Plus Market, and deals solely through the Plus Market for O trades, and not via the LSE.
SCAP is the main Retailer for the LSE Market, dealing to the O trader, and does not deal through Plus
Both SCAP & WINS are in direct competition
EVO and LIBC are a mixer of Wholesale and small Retail large orders. They are the main Wholesalers on the GKP Book
RENA, FOXY, NOVM, MATX, PEEL, CANA, MLSB, BMCM, ARBT, are Wholesale Market Makers, who will only come into play when there are Wholesale Orders being Processed.
When it is a fast rising SP, you will see various Wholesalers distributing for their clients, depending on their clients position, plus the Retailers trading for their O trade clients
When it is a falling SP, again the Wholesalers will be in action, this time accumulating for their float or clients, as will the Retailers.
When it is a sideways Market, you will see various MM's above the AX distributing or accumulating.
With their L2 the MM's know who every Market Partisipant is, be they II's trading alone, CFD Co's, both Pure DMA users.
Fear of Loss, and greed of Gain are the MM's main tools, and they will short any stock for their own gain, and reverse them quicker than we can
What I would love to know, is who each Wholesalers clients are.
All IMHO of course, so DYOR please.
Mikey
===
Author SpikeyDT View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted today 10:07
Subject The Commission on oil and energy
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 3 times.
Message
The Commission on oil and energy demand to host the Oil Minister in Parliament on the convening of Rumaila
http://www.alsumarianews.com/ar/3/26429/news-details-.html
Monday, 15 August 2011 10:00 GMT
Alsumaria News / Baghdad
Asked the Commission on oil and energy, on Monday, Presidency of the parliament to host the Oil Minister Abdul-Karim and coffee for the purpose of questioning on the contract for the field Rumaila contract with a British company, while the questioned claim the ministry doing to change the terms of the contract for Iraq, pointed to the possible existence of financial corruption in the subject.
A member of the Committee Deputy Farhad Atrushi in an interview for "Alsumaria News", "House demands of hosting the oil minister, Abdul Karim and coffee for interrogation on what is being said regarding the existence of financial corruption in the contract between the Ministry and the oil company British (BP) on field Rumaila."
He Atrushi that "the ministry said that the contract was changed through secret negotiations with the oil company, despite endorsement by the Council of Ministers," adding that "this is not true, as there has been no amendment to the contract, but remained with his position in favor of the British company and not for the benefit of Iraq. "
He pointed out that "foreign newspapers revealed the circumstances that revolve about the contract."
The newspaper "Observer" revealed at the end of last July for access to classified documents confirm that the British Petroleum (BP) control the Iraqi economy after the approval of the Iraqi government to pay their revenues, even after the stoppage of oil production from the Rumaila, which won a contract to run.
The newspaper said that the secret documents show that the conditions of the original agreement made by the Iraqi Oil Ministry states that the company is a contractor and an operator rather than the owner, has been modified to make the British oil company and its partner, China National Petroleum Corporation in a position more advantageous position to get returns even in no-stop Rumaila production for reasons of security or political.
Already indicated that the newspaper "Sunday Times" Britain's entry to the former British Prime Minister Tony Blair on the line of oil deals in Iraq, winning a million pounds a year as an adviser to facilitate winning development of Zubair oil field in the province of Basra in southern Iraq.
He accused the MP for the National Alliance, Ahmad Chalabi, the seventh of August now, the Iraqi Oil Ministry to re-write some oil contracts in the licensing round in secret, noting that the new contract is required Iraq to pay a percentage of the money to the company BP for every barrel of oil even in the case of obstructed production.
And signed the Iraqi oil ministry held in the third of November last with a coalition of companies (BP) British, the Chinese National Development Rumaila oil, has also signed a contract initially on 29 October last with Exxon Mobil and Shell Group Royal Dutch develop the West Qurna field, while the second took place in November last initial oil contract with another international consortium led by Italy's Eni to develop the Zubair field, and competed for a major international energy companies within the first licensing round in July 2009.
===
Will Pass Through a Deal Between the Blo...
SpikeyDT this user is in your favourites list
8UP
Fattah al-Sheikh: Law Council Strategic Policies Will Pass Through a Deal Between the Blocks
11:00:16 / 08/2011
http://bit.ly/mPxz5t
http://xendan.org/arabic/drejaA.aspx?=hewal&jmara=2042&Jor=2
Khandan - North Aldloa
Said Fattah al-Sheikh member of the Iraqi List, told the site "Khandan" that the draft Law on the Council strategic policies will have the approval of most of the legislators if put to the vote in the parliament despite the objections of some it here and there and waving Ballja to the Federal Court, noting that the transactions between the political blocs that resolved many of the bills over the life of the political process to pass a law that will decide the strategic policies and vote on it.
He said Sheikh in the context of his statement, saying: "The political blocs become accustomed to the style of deals in passing important laws, and it seems that the style itself is the one who will pass the law of the Policy Board by a vote of blocks Kalthalv of Kurdistan and the Supreme Council and the Liberal cluster and Iraqi Accordingly, there are many issues pass through the convergence of blocks with each other to vote in the House of Representatives for each other. "
===
Gulf Keystone Petroleum
Najork
blacksash,
What I don't understand is that if things are 'improving' between the KRG, Baghdad , why haven't ANY of the 41 oil majors in the South started to dip their toes into Kurdistan.
AND WHY THE HELL IS OUR SHARE PRICE STILL 130P WITH BILLIONS AND BILLIONS AND BILLIONS OF BARRELS OF OIL HAVING BEEN FOUND !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The oil majors are holding back because they have factored in the worst risks possible. Nationalisation, permanently delayed oil law, contracts permanently 'in limbo' , highly contradictory Shahristani statements, possible false projections by a totally unknown entity (Global Dynamic Advisors), divorce, Excalibur and so on. The worst views possible have been taken .
VERY FRUSTRATING
Najork.
===
Aug 16th/ 2011Tue 17:57
Gulf Keystone Petroleum
MoneyMaker 80
50UP
We as investors are lucky beyond belief to have stumbled upon possibly one of the greatest companies to have ever appeared on th AIM Market. We have billions of barrels of oil, the political situation in Iraq is getting better all the time and majors are starting to arrive in Kurdistan.
As it stands right now, if we didn't find anymore oil, we still have a company that will eventually get taken over for multiples of today's SP. Can I just add though..... WE WILL FIND MORE OIL. BILIONS OF BARRELS OF THE STUFF.
So that bring me to the reason for posting this message. Over the very short time I've been on this board, the amount of posts responding to de-rampers (The spellcheck actually changed it to dreamers) is only serving one purpose and playing into their hands and giving them the attention they crave. If you're going to ignore these contributors (if you can call them that) ignore them but do it without telling them and please refrain from taking the bait and responding to them. As soon as we ignore them completely then the de-ramping will stop. Easy.
Let's keep everything on here about GKP and thank the lucky stars that we have an opportunity to change our lives by buying shares at this price.
Good luck all.
==
Re: Gulf Keystone Petroleum
blacksash
12UP
Despite all the new oil companies signing up to agreements with the KRG , there is actually no evidence at all that Baghdad has warmed towards Kurdistan.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Errrrrr are you suggesting that these oil companies are gamblers and haven't done any due diligence? Hess, Marathon, Murphy, to name just a few don't gamble with share holders money, they know it's a matter of time, did you notice Iraq is still running a budget shortfall? Kurdish exports can help plug the gap....payment mechanism in place with DNO after consultation with the KRG noting the payments as revenue in their quarterly reports...........things are definitely moving in the right direction, only a matter of time...as you say.
Hess is included in the bidding rounds for the South, the first of many to come IMHO.
Everything takes longer than we westerners expect in the Arab and African culture, they are tribal and a lot of the negotiating is done to save face sometimes in a very convoluted(Having numerous overlapping coils or folds:) way. DGA are not an unknown quantity, their findings were backed up by Ryder Scott, you do know who they are? If you are so frustrated as to confuse the facts may I suggest you sell as your emotions have clouded your judgement IMVHO
Investing is all about having the patience to see it through to the end game.
===
Iraqi parliament is the first reading of a proposed oil and gas law
http://onedinar.forumotion.net/t35026-iraqi-parliament-is-the-first-reading-of-a-proposed-oil-and-gas-law#82923
Iraqi parliament is the first reading of a proposed oil and gas law
17/08/2011 12:08
17/08/2011 12:08
.. Baghdad, August 17 / Aguetstus (Rn) - The Iraqi Council of Representatives to hold its 24-day Wednesday, led by Osama Najafi and the presence (217) deputies, to hold the first reading of a proposed oil and gas law, and hosting of the Deputy Prime Minister for Energy and Electricity Minister resigned.
.". The MP for the Kurdistan Alliance bloc Ashwaq dry Kurdistan News Agency (Rn) that"today's session will read the first of a proposed oil and gas law, and hosting of the Deputy Prime Minister for Energy, Hussain al-Shahristani, Minister of Electricity Raad waterfall, on the contracts of electricity with two Canadian and German."
.". She added that the dry "for the session will discuss the government program, hosted by the Minister of Agriculture, Izz al-Din of State, Minister of Water Resources Muhannad Al Saadi, and Health Minister Mohammad Amin Majid, Minister of Environment Salioh Sargon."
.. The coalition of state law, led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, has revealed on the sixth of this month (Saturday - VIII), for placing the hand on the file corruption of the Ministry of electricity worth $ 1.7 billion over the contract by the Ministry with two foreign companies turned out later that one is a fake and the other bankrupt.
... And decided to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki late Sunday night, sacking the Minister of Electricity Raad waterfall from his position and referred to the Council of Public Representatives to vote on the dismissal and interrogation.
.. The Ministry of Electricity on the sixth of July last signed a contract with a German company called "the mother of my Aaj" worth $ 625 million to build five power stations completed within 12 months. .. The ministry also signed a contract with a Canadian company called "Cup Gent" to build ten more rapid construction of power stations card thousand megawatts, worth 1.66 billion dollars in an effort to meet the energy shortage in the country. .. But accusations that the companies that are not eligible for the implementation of these contracts, has raised a storm in the country amid reports were not clear enough, on the request of Maliki's dismissal of the Minister of Electricity Raad waterfall, which said government adviser, told AFP he had previously offered his resignation but refused.
.ا. The Minister of Planning, former Jawad Hashem sent a letter to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki on the second of this August, including documents on the Ministry of Electricity signed contracts to build power plants in different regions of Iraq with the companies, he found that they either non-existent for them.
===
DNO Playing Hardball !
WisdomSeeker
8UP
It is possible that the KRG has asked DNO to take this action, in order to pressurise the ICG. The possibility of Kurdish exports decreasing due to the lack of progress on the O & G law will add to the pressure on the ICG and Oil and Gas Committee to speed things up. The threat of reduction in investment may also spur them on. The ICG have a pretty good idea of how much production could be increased if the law is passed.
===
Re: KRG - ICG Partnering the Chinese!
Najork
1UP
Nimomastik,
Whoa there. The Chinese are not popular in many of their resource 'colonies'. Several Chinese colleagues of mine in a previous company were regularly beaten up in Northern Nigeria and the rail system the Chinese put in place in Tanzania in the seventies is crumbling badly, the Chinese refusing to maintain and repair having extracted most of the ores from Tanzania which they needed to. They are hated in some African states and tolerated in others.
Their record of pollution from rare earths in inner Mongolia is very very poor .
Its not all roses on domestic progress either. The magnetic high speed rail (from Pudong airport to outer Shanghai ) is a white elephant, is starting to show flaws from poor installation (the Chinese installation that is , not the technological stuff put in by Siemens) and tower blocks and high expressways fall down from poor structural planning.
Did you read about the massive bullet train crash recently elsewhere in China recently?
Having lived in mainland China (until last year) for nearly 15 yrs, I can tell you that China is experiencing a property bubble and bed debt bubble which will burst in the next 5-10 yrs. Maybe sooner. It hides a whole multitude of sins .
Anyway, back to GKP.
Nice to see DNO reducing production because they are not being paid.
Najork.
===
Aug17th:2011
3 Days of Large Trades
MikeyAdmin
10UP
Monday
150,000 @ 130p O trade sell @ 8.15am
125,000 @ 130.2p O trade buy @ 8.52am
100,000 @ 129.6p O trade sell @ 9.33am
200,000 @ 130.5p O trade buy @ 9.59am
100,000 @ 130.55p O trade buy @ 10.01am
300,000 @ 131.28p O trade buy @ 10.01am
250,000 @ 130p O trade sell @ 10.02am
200,000 @ 131p O trade @ Mid price @ 10.32am
130,000 @ 130.75p O trade @ mid price @ 11.32am
250,000 @ 134p O trade sell @ 14.10pm
125,000 @ 137.75p O trade buy @ 14.49pm
Late trades to add to total Volume
150,000 @ 134.6583p O trade @ mid price @ 15,10pm
500,000 @ 134.6968p O trade buy @ 16.42pm.
1,350, 000 = buys
750,000 = sells
350,000 = mid price unknowns
Tuesday.
150,000 @ 133p @ 15.22pm, deffinate O trade Buy in the same price area as yesterday
300,000 @ 132.75p @ 15.42p report as a sell, yea.
500,000 @ 132.75p @ 132.75p ditto
150,000 @ 131.5p @ 9.03am reported at mid price.
181,519 @ 131p @ 12.20pm reported as a sell
Today.
150,000 @ 131.7p O trade buy, @ 8.57am
75,000 @ 131.3896p O trade buy @ 8.56am
500,000 @ 130.5p delayed from 13.30pm yesterday
-
Delayed & Late Reported Trades
MikeyAdmin
11UP
71,670 @ 143.25p @ 16.37pm showing as a O trade sell.
Probably more to come.
Monday
150,000 @ 130p O trade sell @ 8.15am
125,000 @ 130.2p O trade buy @ 8.52am
100,000 @ 129.6p O trade sell @ 9.33am
200,000 @ 130.5p O trade buy @ 9.59am
100,000 @ 130.55p O trade buy @ 10.01am
300,000 @ 131.28p O trade buy @ 10.01am
250,000 @ 130p O trade sell @ 10.02am
200,000 @ 131p O trade @ Mid price @ 10.32am
130,000 @ 130.75p O trade @ mid price @ 11.32am
250,000 @ 134p O trade sell @ 14.10pm
125,000 @ 137.75p O trade buy @ 14.49pm
Late trades to add to total Volume
150,000 @ 134.6583p O trade @ mid price @ 15,10pm
500,000 @ 134.6968p O trade buy @ 16.42pm.
1,350, 000 = buys
750,000 = sells
350,000 = mid price unknowns
Tuesday.
150,000 @ 133p @ 15.22pm, deffinate O trade Buy in the same price area as yesterday
300,000 @ 132.75p @ 15.42p report as a sell, yea.
500,000 @ 132.75p @ 132.75p ditto
150,000 @ 131.5p @ 9.03am reported at mid price.
181,519 @ 131p @ 12.20pm reported as a sell
300,000 @ 133.1p @ 17.47pm, reported in the delayed trades this morning
Today.
150,000 @ 131.7p O trade buy, @ 8.57am
75,000 @ 131.3896p O trade buy @ 8.56am
500,000 @ 130.5p delayed from 13.30pm yesterday
150,000 @ 133p @ 11.27am
Thats a Total of 4,956,519 or (6.50%)
Mikey
--
, Mistake again, sorry
Monday
150,000 @ 130p O trade sell @ 8.15am
125,000 @ 130.2p O trade buy @ 8.52am
100,000 @ 129.6p O trade sell @ 9.33am
200,000 @ 130.5p O trade buy @ 9.59am
100,000 @ 130.55p O trade buy @ 10.01am
300,000 @ 131.28p O trade buy @ 10.01am
250,000 @ 130p O trade sell @ 10.02am
200,000 @ 131p O trade @ Mid price @ 10.32am
130,000 @ 130.75p O trade @ mid price @ 11.32am
250,000 @ 134p O trade sell @ 14.10pm
125,000 @ 137.75p O trade buy @ 14.49pm
Late trades to add to total Volume
150,000 @ 134.6583p O trade @ mid price @ 15,10pm
500,000 @ 134.6968p O trade buy @ 16.42pm.
1,350, 000 = buys
750,000 = sells
350,000 = mid price unknowns
Tuesday.
150,000 @ 133p @ 15.22pm, deffinate O trade Buy in the same price area as yesterday
300,000 @ 132.75p @ 15.42p report as a sell, yea.
500,000 @ 132.75p @ 132.75p ditto
150,000 @ 131.5p @ 9.03am reported at mid price.
181,519 @ 131p @ 12.20pm reported as a sell
Today.
150,000 @ 131.7p O trade buy, @ 8.57am
75,000 @ 131.3896p O trade buy @ 8.56am
500,000 @ 130.5p delayed from 13.30pm yesterday
150,000 @ 133p @ 11.27am
100,000 @ 135p @ 13.10pm
300,000 @ 137p @ 15.19pm
109,526 @ 144p @16.52pm
Thats a total of 5,466,045 (7.17%)
Mikey
===
Dubai oil rig builder plans expansion
April Yee
Aug 17, 2011
Nigel McCue, the chief executive of Lamprell, is bullish on oil and that this year will not be a repeat of 2008. Jaime Puebla / The National
Lamprell, the Dubai oil services company, plans to start up operations in Iraq to take advantage of a boom in oil exploration.
The Iraqi government is opening up virgin oilfields to international companies, and Lamprell is eager to get a slice of the work, from building rigs to planning the engineering.
It is in talks with potential partners to set up bases in Kurdistan and southern Iraq, home to major oilfields, said Nigel McCue, the chief executive of Lamprell.
"The market is promising and obviously there's been a lot of activity to date," he said. "We're hoping to get something established there before the end of the year."
Lamprell, one of the 350 largest companies listed on the London Stock Exchange, last month bought Maritime Industrial Services, a competitor, for US$336 million (Dh1.23 billion).
The acquisition of the Sharjah-based company, which brought with it a third UAE shipyard as well as footholds in Saudi Arabia, is part of Lamprell's effort to build up its position in the Middle East.
"Two thirds of the world's oil and gas reserves are in the Middle East, and yet we have very little exposure to it," said Mr McCue.
"We'll be looking at expanding the businesses throughout the region."
Chief in that expansion is Iraq, whose government pre-qualified 41 companies this month to bid for fresh exploration blocks.
That represents a pool of potential customers for Lamprell, which builds rigs for Saipem and Transocean, among the world's five largest oil contractors.
The rigs, given names such as "Jupiter" or "Perro Negro 4", ultimately serve producers from Saudi Aramco to Abu Dhabi National Oil Company seeking reserves deep underground.
One sticking point is if a global economic slowdown eats into energy demand, as the recession did in 2008. The oil price slumped that year from $147 to $36 a barrel.
"That had the effect of slowing down projects, and there was a hiatus in the decision making which did have an effect on us," said Mr McCue.
"We had to make cutbacks at that time."
This month the oil price has fallen as much as 20 per cent from highs earlier this year, and producers and consumers are forecasting a slump in demand growth.
But Mr McCue remained "bullish" on oil and insisted this year would not be a 2008 playback.
"We're seeing a very large order book and a big pipeline," said Mr McCue.
"We're not seeing any slowdown."
Lamprell is also finding a growing segment of its order book coming from a competitor to fossil fuels - wind.
Offshore turbines require special vessels when they are installed, and Lamprell is building more such ships as the EU approaches a 2020 deadline to source one fifth of its power from renewables.
"Between the UK, Germany, Denmark and the European countries, demand is very high," said Mr McCue.
"Prices [for electricity] will increase and you can see the capital investment is taking place."
http://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/dubai-oil-rig-builder-plans-expansion
====
Reasons for the rise...
scaramouche
15UP
Well, after the recent fall to the dark depths of 87p, it is great to see some positive momentum at last, a positive BB.... and a return to the 140's. I don't think we should get too excited just yet, but it is certainly looking like GKP could have turned the corner!
Some possible reasons for the rise:
1) Improved market sentiment generally, following the recent downturn in global markets and a perhaps exaggerated sell-off in many sectors.
2) Better sentiment towards oil exploration companies after massive declines recently in many particularly on the AIM market. Substantial price rises have been seen amongst a number of popular AIM oiies in the last few days, e.g RKH, RL, BPC, CHAR.
3) Interest from a Big buyer possibly in the shape of an Institutional investor or a HNW(High Net Worth) individual. That Amber light could be on the verge of turning Green.
4) The entry of several oil companies (Repsol, Hess, Afren, petroceltic) into Kurdistan about 2 weeks ago, followed by more positive press generally about the reducing risk of investing in the region.
5) Improved politicals - the Iraqi O&G Law is now very clearly on the agenda with signs of a possible breakthrough; and Shahristani's position is under some pressure after the Minister of Electricity resigned, and Shari's own signature to the fraudulent contracts is being queried.
6) Increasing expectation of operational newsflow from GKP, especially with 3D sesimics, SH-2 update, Bekhme-1, SA (possible revision), BIRS and exports widely anticipated.
But my own personal favourite is that the reason for the rise is not really related to any of this at all
*** It is quite simply that GKP has been MASSIVELY UNDER-VALUED... for quite some time.
* Nine brokers have been offering very cautious target prices averaging about 220p.
* Our NAV value has been approaching £10 (based primarily on information contained in RNS's and published documentation from GKP)
* And we are still significantly below the level of the SP BEFORE the massive OIP upgrade from Shaikan on 14 April , which was enhanced by last week's Sheikh Adi discovery RNS.
Sure, 144p is a vast improvement following the recent shennanigans and market turmoil, but it still represents only a very small percentage of GKP's true value IMHO.
While I still expect occasional unexpected and disconcerting falls in the SP, I also expect repeats of today's rise many times more. And, as Investor48 says ... waking up one morning to find that a huge SP increase has taken place, and the period of 'Shock and Awe' can be seen to have well and truly begun.
GLA, scaramouche.
====
Oil law walkout
Iraqi Parliament members raising their hands to vote for the new Iraqi cabinet formed by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on December 21, 2010 in Baghdad, Iraq. The government has faced numerous obstacles, from security to corruption, and has yet to move forward on an oil law. (Photo by Iraqi Prime Minister Office via Getty Images)
Iraqi Parliament members raising their hands to vote for the new Iraqi cabinet formed by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on December 21, 2010 in Baghdad, Iraq. The government has faced numerous obstacles, from security to corruption, and has yet to move forward on an oil law. (Photo by Iraqi Prime Minister Office via Getty Images)
By Staff of Iraq Oil Report
Published August 17, 2011
A delegation of Parliamentarians, led by those loyal to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, walked out during the first reading of the long-awaited oil and gas law Wednesday, citing the need to wait for the Cabinet to approve its version of the law, and delaying action until Sept. 6 at the earliest.
"We reached Article 26 of the (oil and gas) law, but MPs from the United Iraqi Collation started to leave the session room," said Bayazid Hassan, a Kurd and the only MP serving a second term on the energy committee. "I saw some MPs from Maliki's State of Law, the United Iraqi Alliance, MPs from the Sadrists Ahrar block, leaving the session. But most of them were from the State of Law block."
Other members said they didn't have enough time to review the draft law, and that a political deal should be reached before Parliament debates it.
"We found, as the MPs of the United Iraqi Alliance, for several reasons it is not the time for the first reading," said Ali Shalah, a member of the State of Law coalition, the largest part of the governing coalition, led by Maliki.
"The first reading of the parliamentary oil and gas law proposal was postponed until after Eid," he said, referring to the holiday that caps the month-long Ramadan holiday, on Sept. 3. Parliament is supposed to resume Sept. 6, but the law itself has not been put back on the official schedule.
An alternative law, proposed by the Oil Ministry, is with the Council of Ministers and is the preferred legislative path of the Maliki government. "But so far we do not know what has happened with this law and where it has reached in the process of the approval," Hassan said.
Shalah specifically said "it is better to wait until the cabinet draft law goes to parliament, then the two laws will be read at the Parliament and will see how to make a proper law between both."
Awad al-Awadi, a Sadrist MP and member of the committee, said the committee will "write to the Council of Ministers about the necessity to speed up the approval of (its) draft oil and gas law."
The reading, however cut short, is itself a bit of legislative progress: it was the third attempt in the past week of the Oil and Energy Committee to move the bill forward, according to members of the committee and other officials involved with the legislative process.
The committee, led by Adnan Janabi, a member of ex-prime minister Ayad Allawi's Iraqiya political block, has taken a more active stance on oil related issues than the previous legislature.
This has led most recently to confrontation between Janabi's committee and Maliki's supporters on a political level, and tested the balance of power between the legislative and executive branches that has thus far in Iraq's post-2003 political development increasingly skewed to a sole authority of the premier.
Upon a request from the prime minister, the Federal Supreme Court late last year ruled that the Constitution authorizes only the Cabinet to formally submit legislation for Parliament's consideration, and that Parliament itself can only propose laws. That ruling itself is in dispute and being challenged by this oil law itself.
Janabi bottom-lined the draft of the oil law that was given a partial read Wednesday, submitted to the speaker of the Parliament by a cross-section of 61 members of Parliament earlier this month, despite the Oil Ministry's proposed law. In the past, laws have come from the Cabinet.
The committee has also officially requested Parliament enact a ban on all oil deals until the oil law is approved.
This was an attempt not only to pressure the political leaders into a sense of urgency on the oil law, but assert the belief of Janabi and other MPs that without a new law governing the oil sector, existing laws require Parliament approval of all deals.
In the absence of the new law, Baghdad, the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and some provinces have proceeded with their own interpretation of the rights to sign oil deals.
The committee has also pushed to reconstitute the national oil company, in a law that would be a companion to the oil and gas law, but is opposed by the Oil Ministry.
The oil and gas law is seen as the backbone of Iraq's oil development. It would in theory create strategic policy and management guidelines for the world's third largest oil sector, ending oil disputes that have reverberated throughout the country's political process, which in turn has held back development of the oil sector that has struggled through more than three decades of wars, occupation and mismanagement.
But the law itself continues to be a sore point, languishing in political limbo since late 2006 when a draft was first presented to the government and was subsequently derailed in a dispute between Iraq's de-centralized minded Kurds and the government in Baghdad.
Key members of the new government, made up of a contentious coalition of those who either pledged allegiance to Maliki, his arch rival Allawi, and the Kurdistan Coalition, has nevertheless pushed for a debate on the law.
"When we at the oil and energy committee decided to submit this proposal law of oil and gas for the first reading at the Parliament, it was welcomed by many MPs because this law is very important," said Awadi. "All MPs agreed about the importance of this law and that it should be discussed at the Parliament, but they have differences in the mechanisms of the legislation of this law."
Oil Minister Abdul Karim Luaibi told reporters Tuesday he expects $80 billion in oil sales this year, as oil exports are to date averaging 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd). Iraq's central and regional governments have signed more than 50 oil contracts since 2004, deals that each side criticizes as illegitimate or of poor value to Iraq, but combined would increase the country's oil production capacity from 2.75 million bpd to more than 13.5 million bpd in seven years.
Iraqi staff in Baghdad are anonymous for their security.
====
Author randalf View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted Wednesday 15:45
Subject shorter question
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 2 times.
Message
Slightly O/T, but only slightly.
There have been a number of posts and suggestions recently that we could wake up one morning and find a game changing RNS waiting for the 7:01 club.
Now I've seen these a few times in the past - and sadly been involved in even fewer - and usually they are of the form that x, y and z have happened and as a result pending a resolution the company has voluntarily suspended itself from the market.
At that point we can't trade, at least until the suspension is lifted, and the SP moves in the direction intimated in the RNS.
In our case I think many of us want it to move upwards.....significantly.
Now lets say that you are shorting, where in effect you are putting down a fraction of a shares value to allow you to sell the share on. If the SP drops before the short expires you buy at the lower price, get your deposit back and profit from the difference between the price you sold and the price you bought.
That is a simplified explanation of shorting as I understand it.
Now lets say you have a short that expires on a Wednesday and you are doing quite well out of it. GKP has fallen 20p.
Tuesday morning and a RNS is out. GKP is being suspended regards a t/o by a private oil company who is willing to offer £10/share.
Where does the shorter stand??
They never fully bought the share and now they can't because it's been suspended. Is the CFD(Contract for Difference) suspended pending GKP being allowed to recommence trading? is the shorter allowed to close the CFD at the last trading price or do they have to sit and wait for the trading to begin and pay what would presumaby be around £10/share?
Just wondering if anyone could offer advice.
btw anyone else get the impression that a major buyer is taking up a position?
>>
Where does the shorter stand??
They never fully bought the share and now they can't because it's been suspended. Is the CFD suspended pending GKP being allowed to recommence trading? is the shorter allowed to close the CFD at the last trading price or do they have to sit and wait for the trading to begin and pay what would presumaby be around £10/share?
Just wondering if anyone could offer advice.
btw anyone else get the impression that a major buyer is taking up a position?
===
Answers:
Where does the shorter stand??
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The short answer is fekked. Unless they have paid for a guaranteed stop, they are completely stuffed! Wiped out, probably. And usually on suspension, the margin requirement moves to 100%. PS That counts for longs, too....100%.
In this case I think the shorter is technically gimped(A narrow flat braid or rounded cord of fabric used for trimming. Also called guimpe, guipure. To walk with limp) over nite !
YOU PAY £10, EVEN WITH A STOP AT SAY 150P IT WILL CLOSE U AT FIRST OPENING PRICE, very scary being a shorter of gkp, you would probably lose your house, car, and all possesions gla shorters.
On the other side however as i said to dalesman on the phone the other night , if a gap up of the size some of us are expecting happens then some of the sb firms will have some serious liquidity issues and could jeprodise the small providers
==
The whole shebang
n. Slang
A situation, organization, contrivance(To plan with cleverness or ingenuity; devise: ), or set of facts or things: organized and ran the whole shebang.
the and the whole shooting match n. the whole affair; everything and everyone. (Folksy.) The whole shebang is just about washed up. The boss put an end to the whole shooting match.
9km x 80m + 3D = ?
bonobo77
16UP
So we've hit oil at Shaikan again.
And it's flowing.
On a 9km - NINE KILOMETRE - step out from SH-1.
And we have, in our possession, 3D seismic data that covers the whole shebang.
Do we need to drill any further here, or do we already have enough info to satisfy a suitor?
Todd, let's get the deal done.
=
SPOKE TO EWAN
ExSol
17UP
Hi
Spoke to Ewan, the reason for not drilling to the June RNS depth is the pressure encountered.
They will re asses for the future.
===
Profit Taking
MikeyAdmin
2UP
Aug 18th/ 2011
Buy on rumour (of an imminent) sell on News. Both II's and Traders will do it.
Thats all thats happened, and one thing I've noticed, is the recent Buyer of over 5m shares does not appear to have sold.
Whilst an SP over 150p or higher, "if only as a feel good factor", would have been a nice result from todays RNS, the facts are that traders to profit.
There is still the OIP upgrade from DGA to come for SH, and still more Test results, still SA-1 Test results to come, and the results of the 3D Seimics.
I will hold long term gains from the Takeover.
Mikey
====
Author jbtrend View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted today 10:08
Subject Re: What a waste of a rumour! View parent message
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 11 times.
Message
Just another 80 metres of pay, good quality oil, not bad flow rates and two more highly prospective zones to test.
Waste of bloody time!!!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
thats why they fed it to the big players yesterday to get the engine running, and thats why they didnt release at 7am, to let them take profits at first light, u just gotta admire them on AIM, totally unregulated garbage>
they will return at the right price i think u will find>
chris
where do u sit ??
jbtrend
7UP
got to go to an early lunch now, see u all later, back for US news and see where we go from here, i'll leave u with a note to ponder, u will probably recognise which points refer to yourselves from this list, taken from the 'shorters bible' on the subject of recognising a fully paid up ramper on a bb>>>>
1) A Ramper is a nervous type who is over-invested and exposed to great losses.
2) A Ramper will go to any lengths to promote "his" shares, even to the point of posting out of date news.
3) A Ramper will "always" try to divert attention to imaginary de-rampers or bashers.
4) A Ramper is a desperate type who only sees and posts positive news.
5) A Ramper will try and make friends and to become very popular by posting information about his life, even to the point of issuing an email address.
6) A Ramper uses the terms mate, matey, buddy, bud on a regular basis.
7) A Ramper likes to use CAPITALS to force the arguement and gain superiority, this is often in the form of BUY.
8) A Ramper is not paid to ramp, he's just worried about his own investment and will always claim that the shares are in short supply on the open market.
9) A Ramper is not a technical person either in the share, the stock market or even in the world of finance.
10) A Ramper always encourages others to follow, he needs a gang, he is useless on his own
11) A Ramper usually has a ONE or TWO share portfolio, his ramping shares.
12) A Ramper sometimes, unbelievably, names himself after the share he ramps or the industry within.
13) A Ramper will blame anything when things are going wrong, mm's, bashers, the government, the press, the media and sometimes Margaret Thatcher.
14) A Ramper will use phrases like “Fill ya Boots†and “This is gonna Rocket†to press the point home, additionally, “ Ignore the Bashers†when he becomes a little lost during discussions.
15) A Ramper has often been known to spot a “MASSIVE BUY AFTER HOURSâ€, and will report almost any large trade as a BUY, whether it is or not.
16) A Ramper is very keen to let the bb know he has “topped up againâ€..on a regular basis, sometimes on a Daily basis.
==
: What a waste of a rumour!
SirF
Chris,
Totally agree........thats what it appears to be,popped out for a short time yesterday and missed the last hour.
Feel sorry for pi traders caught up in the maelstrom of GKP @ the moment, its only there for the 'big players' currently. Oh to be a fly on the wall and actually hear the phone call,see the e-mail / text/ bloomberg terminal AND see who's doing it.
"Garbage" ( you), "cesspit" (hub)........roll on the 250.
===
It's just not about the drilling anymore, the news which will drive this baby is really out of Todd's control.
Re: -4% Todd
Chillax22
Hope you are enjoying this...
now if you can play wiser and for the goody manipulation sake can you please ask your links in Kuwait oil or elsewhere to throw a bone of an interest in partnership or takeover..not that we may see it to fruition, but for the heck of it...that should alight the SP into orbit and you could have your Bonus share exercised...and shitstani and his walked out MPs will have thier shorts blown and the beach house and the pole....cancelled!
Time to show the markets that you are not just all pure OIL but even Greasy like it.
so the RIG is being packed after all...nice one Pitts...
=
Takeover...
golfguy31
7UP
GKP appears to have stopped short of original TD?.....could it be that a predator has offered a price that more than compensates for the effort in drilling further down?
Also, we haven't heard from GKP with regard to exports....if GKP do officially begin exporting then surely that eats into the 25 yr production license....I'm confident that a predator will want to extract the maximum permissible oil over the WHOLE 25 yr period...the point being that imo GKP aren't going to start exporting 5k bopd due to an imminent takeover.
=
Re: Very disappointing
touareg
Indeed it is disappinting. Lot of manipulation by MMs. GKP has a sea of oil and the price retreats to 1.375, whereas RKH purely on estimates of oil couple of miles beneath the ocean trades at 2.27. Mind boggles. The only act that will propel us to the real value will be the passing of the OIL LAW. I will happen but at the Iraqi speed!!! Nothing much we can do until then, except accumulate the bargain of the century.
=====
10:53 Aug 18th/ 2011
Re: New oil discovery!
Gramacho
25UP
Alibi8,
Exactly, this is a complete surprise IMO. By drilling deeper in the section we were expecting to find gas condensate. In Shaikan 1 we went from a 42 API oil with 1000 scf/bbl find in the KC-A reservoir to a 54 API gas condensate in KC-B.
Now we go deeper in the section into KC-C at Sh-2 and find a 36API light oil of similar gravity to Kirkuk! The GOR is about 180 scf/bbl which means that a higher percentage of the crude volume in situ consists of oil (rather than gas) than is the case with the KC-A or KC-B.
The 80m interval is also substantial. Too early to say what the OIP impact will be because we have not been told net pay or porosity. Nor do we know if the closure area is within the confines of Shaikan Jurassic or if the high pressures are a clue it extends further. The light oil will be conducive to a better recovery factor than the Jurassic all else being equal. Its value (for 36API light oil) will be several $/bbl higher that the 18-20 API crude found in Shaikan 1.
Shaikan 2 continues to produce surprises. We had better oil quality in the uppermost Jurassic interval than Shaikan 1. Now this! The tests of the lower Jurassic intervals are going to be extremely interesting.
I don’t know what that pr*t Food4 thought is on about. The only disappointment here is for Nabucco as we have found more oil instead of gas. I will try to get a fuller picture of why they have not drilled deeper from John G. The well was supposed to be designed to be capable of handling the pressures.
A TD of 3300m in the middle Triassic, only 25m deeper than the test interval of 3195 – 3275m, indicates there is the potential for additional deeper discoveries yet to be made in the lower Triassic and who knows maybe the Permian too.
Forget any immediate reaction of the sp to this news; it has opened up the possibility of a substantial light oil reservoir at Shaikan and that has to be positive in the longer term.
Regards,
Gramacho
===
New oil discovery!
WisdomSeeker
1UP
'Shaikan-4 is being drilled 6 kilometres to the north-west of the Shaikan-1 discovery well and is targeted to drill to the top of the Permian to reach the planned total depth (TD) of approximately 3,760 meters.'
I wonder if they knew that they would have to stop short of the Permian in SH-2 when SH-4 spudded at the end of May? Perhaps they already knew that the pressure would stop them?
New oil discovery!
green07
2UP
Gramacho,
Spot on, the Light Oil is the biggest surprise , looking at the Ryder Scott report they were predicting a GOR(Gas Oil Ratio) in the range of 10 times what looks to be reported . Their porosity estimates and looking at the log data on page 91 suggest a 10% +/- as a reasonable figure - the N/G (0.086) is probably misleading as the logs on 1B look to only cover 45-50m total if that .
=====
Gulf Keystone finds yet more oil at Shaikan following new Triassic discovery
11:14 am by Jamie Ashcroft
http://bit.ly/mSm9J8
After successfully completing the Kurre Chine C test Gulf Keystone said it will now continue with its testing programme in the Triassic and Jurassic reservoirs.
Kurdistan explorer Gulf Keystone (LON:GKP) is set to add yet more oil to its resources at the Shaikan oilfield after it unearthed another new discovery.
The Shaikan oilfield is currently estimated to contain between 5 and 10 billion barrels of oil-in-place but Gulf Keystone’s latest discovery, in a deeper Triassic age reservoir that could not be reached in previous wells, will add to this impressive tally.
Shaikan-2 is Gulf Keystone’s first deep appraisal well. It has now been drilled to a total depth of 3,300 metres in the ‘middle triassic’. Here it discovered the Kurre Chine C zone over an 80 metre interval, from a depth of 3,195 to 3,275 metres.
Kurre Chine C has since been flow tested. Through testing the zone flowed at variable rates up to 4,450 barrels a day, of 36 degree API oil. It also produced 813,000 cubic feet of gas a day.
Importantly Gulf Keystone said that Kurre Chine C is highly pressured and it correlates with the high pressure zone penetrated at the bottom of Shaikan-1 – which prevented that well from being drilled deeper.
"The new Triassic discovery is yet another chapter in our Shaikan success story,†said chief operating officer John Gerstenlauer.
“As a result of these successful Shaikan-2 well test results, oil volumes that will eventually be attributed to this zone will be in addition to the already impressive 4.86 to 10.8 billion barrels of gross oil-in-place already discovered in the Shaikan field."
After successfully completing the Kurre Chine C test Gulf Keystone said it will now continue with its testing programme in the Triassic and Jurassic reservoirs.
This is the second significant announcement in as many weeks for Gulf Keystone.
Last Wednesday it revealed that the Sheik Adi project in Kurdistan could potentially be a ‘world class’ oil discovery, after a new independent assessment that puts the size of the Sheik Adi oilfield between 1 and 3 billion barrels of oil.
Combined with Shaikan, and the Akri-Bijeel discovery, the group’s assets are now estimated to contain almost 12 billion barrels of oil – on a ‘mid-case’ P50 estimate.
Independent preliminary evaluation of the Sheikh Adi resources was carried out by Dynamic Global Advisors (DGA). It was based on wireline logging data from the Sheikh Adi-1 well, core samples, 2D and 3D seismic and regional data.
Gulf Keystone also confirmed today that it has completed drilling Sheikh Adi-1, which was the first exploration well on the structure, to a depth of 3,780 meters in the Triassic zone.
It said that a series of flow tests will now be performed on a number of Jurassic zones in the well.
Sheikh Adi is immediately to the west of Shaikan block. Gulf Keystone has a 80 per cent working interest in Sheik Adi, with the remaining 20 per cent interest held by the Kurdistan Regional Government.
Last week’s announcement helped lift Gulf Keystone’s shares which, like many other popular AIM stocks, had been under severe pressure as the recent market turmoil forced some investors to sell assets to cover trading losses.
At the height of the recent selling, Gulf Keystone shares were down more than 50 per cent from the November 2010 highs of 196p.
This sits oddly with the group’s operational progress on the ground in Kurdistan, however, where things are developing quite rapidly. Firstly, Gulf Keystone has continued to find more oil through its ongoing appraisal drilling, particularly on the Shaikan oilfield where it is now drilling deep targets.
Meanwhile the political environment is reportedly improving in the semi-autonomous region, a view supported by the recent restart of oil exports from northern Iraq.
Neighbouring Kurdistan-operating oil firm DNO is now exporting its production from the region and Gulf Keystone is now making preparations to export its production – from the upper reservoirs in the Shaikan oilfield.
Initially Gulf Keystone plans to export 5,000 barrels of oil. This is then expected to rise to 40,000 barrels a day by the end of 2012.
“We believe that the positions of the Baghdad Government and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) are gradually merging and that increase in production and exports would serve everyone’s best interests,†Fox-Davies analyst Shahin Amini said in a recent note to clients.
“The payment of US$104 million to DNO by KRG in June 2011 is particularly encouraging as it was the first payment to a foreign oil company for oil exports from Kurdistan.â€
====
SPOKE TO EWAN->OK
renardargente
29UP
Hub; SG has referenced the avoidance of risk is being extremely important. Especially, if you think of WZR's SP collapse after the Kurdamir -1 blow-out. You seem to be ignoring the fact that Sh-2 was also a long step-out appraisal for the Jurassic that will narrow down the oil-in-place range to the upside. In addition we will be able to book more upside from the Triassic. It's always disappointing when the stars aren't reached but I'll settle for the outer planets. The well terminated safely whilst achieving many of its aims and has been a great success IMO.
====
After success with this first test, the Company plans to continue with its programme of Shaikan-2 testing in the Triassic and Jurassic. The Company has a 75% working interest in the Shaikan block and is partnered with the MOL subsidiary, Kalegran Ltd., and Texas Keystone Inc. which have the remaining 20% and 5% working interests respectively.
===
Todays News
Dalesmann
49UP
I can't compete with Gramacho's excellent post but I just wanted to say that for me todays news is both exciting and incredibly positive; If only in that it adds more to our OIP and ultimately to our 2P reserves .
This RNS piles on more positive news to the already salivating(To secrete or produce saliva.) RNS out last week.
I just can't imagine how Super Majors and NOCs can continue to ignore what is turning out to be one of the biggest finds in the last 20 years. Each find adds to the pressure for them to act , and early mover advantage has never looked so good!
This is a new discovery. Previously we explored the Upper Triassic - the Kurre Chine A and B intervals. These were highly pressurised and flowed high API oil (50+ comes to mind) and a large amount of associated gas.
Today we have news that the Kurre Chine C interval has flowed in excess of 4000bopd and has an API of 36 - excellent stuff!. This interval has less associated gas and more oil. The story gets better and better!
For once the shorters and the sell on news brigade aren't having it all their own way. I am frankly delighted if some weak hands have parted with their shares and have departed for pastures new. All I see is a big buyer mopping up shares by the million while PIs do their small trades.
GRH has talked about 'shock and awe', he states that the small jump up in price yesterday was not what he was talking about.
I agree with him!
One morning we will awake to such an awe inspiring event that it will knock your socks off.
You do all wear bed socks now don't you!
Trying to acquire stock at that moment will be all but impossible.
The shock for some will be immense and many shorters will be burn't while others will experience huge regrets that they weren't after all the opportunities they were given not fully invested.
Yes I know the risks!
I don't need some whippersnapper of a newbie trying to part me from my shares!
I am as always in here for the long haul. I am still adding when I can.
So the cats up for sale and the wife is - well shall I just say she rejected my suggestion!
I really don't think that GKP is long for this world
Regards
Dalesman
===
AIM oil and gas firms set for strong end to 2011
Thu, 18/08/2011 - 05:00
http://www.iii.co.uk/tv/episode/aim-oil-and-gas-firms-set-strong-end-2011
Junior oil and gas stocks offer investors more excitement than their major counterparts, and unless oil prices undergo a dramatic change, they should be in for a strong end to the year, says Malcolm Graham Wood of VSA Capital
====
Author Jack Diamonds View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted Thursday 19:32
Subject Slap bang in the sweet spot..........
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 6 times.
Message
Blacksash..........what a lovely phrase......
In layman’s terms.................
1. We have a new Triassic discovery. We tested a new zone in an 80 meter interval. We achieved variable flow rates up to a maximum recorded rate of 4,450 barrels of 36 degree API oil per day with associated gas of 813,000 scf per day. Result.
2. We need to test a lot more in SH2. After success with this first test, the Company plans to continue with its programme of Shaikan-2 testing in the Triassic and Jurassic. Result.
3. SH1 stopped several 100s of meters above planned TD due to high pressure. The new zone in SH2 is highly pressured and correlates with the high pressure zone penetrated at the bottom of Shaikan-1. Result.
4. DGA previous report on SH1 suggested an additional 1 to 5 Billion barrels could be the potential from the deeper formations it did not reach.
So if SH1 and SH2 (some 9 Kms away) have similar PVT readings, as a layman I’m predicting at least the top end of 5 Billion additional prospective resources, now we have these results from SH2.
Jack
This new zone is highly pressured and correlates with the high pressure zone penetrated at the bottom of Shaikan-1.
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GKP.L&display=news&it=le
“The Shaikan 1-B had to be stopped several hundreds of meters above the planned TD due to an influx of high-pressure gas while drilling. Gulf Keystone plans to test the Lower Kurra Chine Formation as well as the Upper Permian with the Shaikan 2 well in 2010. Seismic data shows even deeper closures below the Lower Kurra Chine Formation that are prospective. Potential resources for these deeper formations are ~ 1 to 5 BBO and 6 to 14 TCF, which is in addition to the P1 upside estimate of 13 BBO and 2.7 TCF.â€
http://www.gulfkeystone.com/uploads/dgafinaldiscoveryreportshaikan-1130110.pdf
On 14th April we had the Shaikan Discovery: P90 volumes increase from 1.9 billion barrels to 4.9 billion barrels.
The new data has been acquired as a result of:
â€¢ï€ Shaikan-2 oil discovery and well test in the upper section of the Jurassic section, nine km to the east of Shaikan-1
â€¢ï€ Shaikan-1 extended well test production
â€¢ï€ Shaikan-3 testing and production results
â€¢ï€ Preliminary results of the analysis of 3D seismic data acquired for the Shaikan (599km²) and Sheikh Adi (215km²) blocks
â€¢ï€ Evaluation of existing seismic lines and regional geological data for the Ber Bahr, Akri-Bijeel (Bijeel-1 well) and Sheikh Adi blocks.
â€¢ï€ PVT (pressure, volume, temperature) analysis of oil samples from the Triassic Kurre Chine tests at Shaikan-1.
The Shaikan-2 appraisal well is now drilling deeper into the Jurassic and is scheduled to drill on into the Triassic. Once the well reaches TD at the bottom of the Triassic or into the top of the Permian interval, the Company will consider a possible further revision of the Shaikan oil-in-place volumes, taking into account additional information from the reservoirs previously only penetrated by Shaikan-1 and from potential additional discoveries from possible zones below those reached by Shaikan-1, projected by DGA to contain an additional 1 to 5 billion barrels of prospective resources.
http://online.hemscottir.com/ir/gkp/ir.jsp?page=news-item&item=647653150969233
===
Everyone's not surprised
blacksash
21UP
surely!? If you go back to the charts and plot every news event or RNS there is usually a rise in the SP and then a sell off once the news is known. It's an unfortunate consequence of being out of the "loop" so to speak. We don't eat at the same table as the Hedge funds and Pro traders, they know how to trade news to their advantage. You can either try and follow them or just sit and hold tight, which is tough when you see "profits" melting away. The fact is Shaiken and Sheik Adi is shaping up to be the next Kirkuk and part of a giant field IMHO...and we are slap bang in the sweet spot, thanks to a bit of luck and Adnan Samarai. If you are risking money you can't afford to loose or using large leveraged positions it places you at the mercy of the Markets and you will capitulate....it's inevitable IMHO.
The O&G law is getting it's next reading soon ( 16 September) and I'm encouraged by the sudden urgency to get PSC's signed and sealed, it points to a resolution sooner rather than later IMO Eventually the political risk will reach a level that is acceptable to a Major/NOC and they will be compelled to act, before they get gazumped, and that's what you need to keep in mind when holding during this volatile time. The SP is no reflection of what's in the ground and TK is no fool, he knows what to do when holding all the Aces.
Good luck GKPers, hold tight or top up if you can.
Sash
====
A Good Day ...
bonobo77
75UP
... if you believe GKP/Shaikan will be acquired.
A Horror Show if you are trading on margin.
Our closing price looks ugly, but our t/o price just increased a notch.
It is becoming very clear that the value here may not be in what GKP is telling us, but may ultimately reside in what they aren't telling us.
There is a famous saying that the market can remain irrational longer than PIs can remain solvent.
Well, I own all my shares, and the market can do what it likes because I ain't going anywhere until our oil is acquired. This is the one company I own where I am absolutely NOT relying on the market to give me my desired return. In fact, it's pretty much the one company I own now.
===
Bewildered, exhausted and pi**ed off!!!
Elikkos Georghiades
28UP
And I bet there are many more GKP investors out there feeling exactly the same. Really, I just don't get it. Yes I know these falls are due to the macro economic picture but for goodness sake what the heck happened to the fundamentals of a company.Yes I know we are AIM, but why are we being hit proportionately more than other comparable AIM companies? One would have thought that with fundamentals as sound as ours, we might be viewed more as defensive stocks rather than ones that are the first to be dumped, even having regard to the political risks.
Don't get me wrong, this is no dreamping post as I have well over 70k of these. I am also in RKH and XEL and its exactly the same there. I agree with STM that falls caused by macro econmoics should not lead us to sell. But heck this bleak picture seems never ending and is so sickening.
Everyone keeps talking about TO but I sometimes wonder whether we will ever be taken over. Patience, patience, patience......I am sick of reading that word. Its at times like these when I wish I had never wasted the last 12 years of my life checking shares and investing in the markets. I mean whats the point of picking good sound stocks with excellent fundamentals if we are to be hammered anyway. I just don't get it anymore.
So what is the point of this post if I am not deramping........indulge me just a little because right now, just like some of you perhaps, I am feeling well and truly pi**ed off.
Elikkos
=====
Author
vimconfused View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted
today 06:56
Subject
Re: Random Notes - Minutes View parent message
Votes for this Posting
Voted 30 times.
Message
The essential points have been mentioned and discussed by earlier posters. In case anyone wanted more of a 'feel' for being there I've put this together as more like a minutes of the presentation. The bits in quotes I believe to be more or less exactly what was said. My comments are square brackets. Apologies for repeating a lot of what you probably already know.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seating for approx 250 was provided and perhaps about 220 attended to hear presentations from Sound, VOG, SacOil and finally GKP. GKP's presentation was delivered by Ewan Ainsworth, Finance Director and began at approx 19:40. [The presentation given is largely the one that appears on the GKP website. It may be helpful to download one before reading this!]
One of Ewan's first comments was that he was not going to "spill the beans" although he suspected there was a "plot to get me drunk". He then said all announcements "were up to date" and he would address whether the upside case would hold true for the investor.
[The following sections more or less correspond to the presentation slides.]
COMPANY HIGHLIGHTS
Much as per the slide. Ewan said that GKP was [I don't know if he only meant at the moment] a "resource company" and was intending to prove up as many barrels in the ground in as short a time as possible.
He ended that slide by mentioning (for the only time) the "orderly exit" from Algeria where apparently GKP still have a "small office".
ACREAGE
Ewan covered the four blocks and the wells generally. He pointed out that the "main export pipeline" passes "quite close" [I assume he was talking about BTC. The pipeline also came up in questions at the end] and that GKP was "well placed to access it".
SHAIKAN
He explained how Texas Keystone will eventually assign its 5% interest to GKP to total 80% working interest in the block, that at "third party" will acquire 15% and that the KRG will take up a 20% interest upon commercial oil production which will have the effect of diluting GKP's final interest to 54.6%. [I know it says 51% on the slide, but I thought he said 54.6% at the presentation.]
Ewan referred to the "significant potential" of the Triassic and Permian and talked about the wells already drilled and those to come. He presented a slide which superimposed Shaikan onto a map of London and also as compared to the Brent Field [It occurred to me this slide might be worth showing a non-GKP investor to get them interested!], then compared it with middle eastern fields and 'frontier' discoveries, saying the block was "well on the way to being compatible" [with the largest fields discovered]. He mentioned a one-third recovery factor and that the "technical guys" say that "is entirely appropriate" for Shaikan.
He pointed out that every well drilled so far had been successful and referred to the "range of different oil types" produced. He pointed out Shaikan [wells] 1 and 3 are tied to the existing production facilities that can both produce approximately 10,000 bopd, meaning GKP can "easily achieve" 10 to 20 thousand bopd just from these two wells. He then referred to the technical results of the other wells as explained on the slide. He said the recent seismic work corresponded with the 2D results, or perhaps showed an even bigger structure but was difficult to assess because of the geology.
He referred to the "consistency across a very large area" [I don't know if he meant connectivity between the blocks, or just within Shaikan] and that part of the remaining work programme would be dedicated to checking across the area [again I don't know if this meant just Shaikan].
The production facility completed in September 2010, selling domestically from October 2010 (for which it was initially designed). [I think he then said some exports were made from February and in mid-March KRG asked production to be ramped up beyond the current capacity.] Ewan said there were two approaches to upping production, firstly by upgrading the production facilities which should be done Q1 or 2 next year and secondly as an interim measure by mixing chemicals into the oil to meet export specification, although there were "side effects". More recently the KRG identified a shortage in the domestic market so priority was again given to domestic sales.
SHEIKH ADI
[More or less as per the slide.] In addition mentioned something about "a leak" as one of the reasons for difficulty testing in the Triassic, and a "reverse fault structure" meaning they effectively drilled through the difficult Cretaceous twice.
BER BAHR
Ewan said this block was "of most interest to us now" and that the structure is "absolutely enormous" and is "really very very exciting" [the words used were slightly more emotive when describing this block compared to the others though not delivered in a different tone IMHO].
He then went on to mention "upside" which was not featured on the slide and referred to a "regional water level" of 2,230m and [assuming I understood this correctly, please advise if this is not correct] if present across the blocks would mean Sheikh Adi approximately half the size of Shaikan and [wait for it] Ber Bahr would be one and a half to two times the size of Shaikan[!] He then said words to the effect "there is nothing we have seen in any of these wells that discredits this case".
AKRI BIJEEL
[Nothing specific to add on this one.]
WORK PROGRAMME
"Everybody is eagerly awaiting Bekhme".
Ber Bahr is "the big prospect".
LITIGATION UPDATE
[Nothing significantly different to the slide.]
ANALYSTS
Ewan thought the SP had stood up "reasonably well".
He referred to lots of research now being done on GKP.
He thought that all the research done by the various analysts had come up with very similar findings and only varied by the risk factor applied [although a bit later he also said they varied by "resource numbers" which of course is rather a big factor!]
QUESTIONS
[It was difficult to hear the questions themselves as there was no travelling microphone etc, only Ewan's response. In response to different questions Ewan said:]
The KRG are only exercising their rights under the constitution. These difficulties will be resolved. These are political not legal difficulties. Nothing has changed [I believe he meant recently].
There are many positive developments.
Various exporting companies have been paid.
The Oil and Gas Law has been approved "by ministers" and will be put to parliament soon [I think he said in the next month or so.]
"My view" ... "was always going to be resolved".
In response to whether the blocks will be sold off individually, Ewan said everything will be considered. He also mentioned that we were in the "early stages" of "value creation" and that value can only be assessed with as much information as possible. There is still a lot to be proved up.
He doubted whether the Oil and Gas Law would modify GKP's contracts saying "I don't think so, that would come as a complete surprise to us."
In response to a question about the work programme not extending much into next year, Ewan suggested not reading too much into that, as much would depend on results from Ber Bahr and work with MOL.
In response to whether GKP would be building a pipeline [presumably to connect with BTC] he said routes have been considered and costings made, though by its nature it would fall under the strategic plan for Kurdistan but it was GKP's preference for their "own pipeline".
POST-PRESENTATION QUESTIONS
[Unfortunately I could not hear Ewan despite being only about five feet away due to background noise! Thankfully some people here clearly did get to ask questions and obtained responses they could hear!]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My apologies if your heard anything different to me or I missed something vital. I am very happy to hear if you disagree with my recollections.
==============
Re: Random Notes
blacksash
I was great to meet up with all of you last night, very productive evening even though there was nothing new. I was one of the last to leave and a few of us were firing off questions at Ewan, must say he has the patience of a saint.
I asked him directly if a DNO RAK type of take over was possible ie where by a sovereign fund could buy Institutional Investors holdings through nominee accounts and announce their holdings and get around the recent resolutions in this way
He replied that he would be very surprised if that happened, my feeling is that it is a scenario they are aware of but have done everything possible to protect themselves from.
I went on to ask about exports/local sales and GKP are getting the run around from the KRG it seems with requests for exports as well as oil for the local market, they are currently upgrading the facility and expect to be exporting full time in Q1 or Q2 of 2012. He did let slip that the price they get for local sales is similar per barrel to exports but he didn't elaborate, from memory it works out to $12 net per barrel, but I need to verify that, local sales are on going and will be reported in September.
I asked about GKP needing to raise more money in the future due to planned exports taking longer than first thought, his reply was they have no plan to raise money, but it can't be ruled out all together.
The high pressure in the Triassic is causing a few problems, I'm sure Gramacho will address those once he has spoken to JG, needless to say it is very unusual to have such high pressure, more than 10000psi! It does bode well for the Permian/Triassic though, it's going to be SH-5 that unlocks it's secrets hopefully. Coring has been done at SH-4 and results so far are encouraging that it is the same as SH-1, SH-2, so one BIG structure, looking forward to Bekhme results it has the potential to be as big as SH-1 was for Shaiken, although MOL are tight lipped and and slow with results.
That's all I can remember I'm sure between all of us we have painted quite a good picture of what went on, very confident in my investment here and encouraged that a low ball bid will be laughed at and GKP are PRODUCING oil and selling it to market. The SP is not a true reflection of the potential so hold tight if you can and try not to over leverage, the market will spank you in this current climate if you do!
Tlars was grilling Ewan about the contracts and said he felt they would be converted, Ewan laughed and said there has been no hint or sign that this would happen. I asked why GKP didn't publish the terms of the PSC, he replied that as a guest of the KRG they had to abide by the law of the land so to speak, he then said that the dispute is not what is in the contracts but the right to sign contracts, IMO they will stand as is and no new PSC.'s will be entered into after the O&G law is passed hence the recent rush to sign PSC's.
Sash
====
Author
vimconfused View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted
today 06:56
Subject
Re: Random Notes - Minutes View parent message
Votes for this Posting
Voted 30 times.
Message
The essential points have been mentioned and discussed by earlier posters. In case anyone wanted more of a 'feel' for being there I've put this together as more like a minutes of the presentation. The bits in quotes I believe to be more or less exactly what was said. My comments are square brackets. Apologies for repeating a lot of what you probably already know.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seating for approx 250 was provided and perhaps about 220 attended to hear presentations from Sound, VOG, SacOil and finally GKP. GKP's presentation was delivered by Ewan Ainsworth, Finance Director and began at approx 19:40. [The presentation given is largely the one that appears on the GKP website. It may be helpful to download one before reading this!]
One of Ewan's first comments was that he was not going to "spill the beans" although he suspected there was a "plot to get me drunk". He then said all announcements "were up to date" and he would address whether the upside case would hold true for the investor.
[The following sections more or less correspond to the presentation slides.]
COMPANY HIGHLIGHTS
Much as per the slide. Ewan said that GKP was [I don't know if he only meant at the moment] a "resource company" and was intending to prove up as many barrels in the ground in as short a time as possible.
He ended that slide by mentioning (for the only time) the "orderly exit" from Algeria where apparently GKP still have a "small office".
ACREAGE
Ewan covered the four blocks and the wells generally. He pointed out that the "main export pipeline" passes "quite close" [I assume he was talking about BTC. The pipeline also came up in questions at the end] and that GKP was "well placed to access it".
SHAIKAN
He explained how Texas Keystone will eventually assign its 5% interest to GKP to total 80% working interest in the block, that at "third party" will acquire 15% and that the KRG will take up a 20% interest upon commercial oil production which will have the effect of diluting GKP's final interest to 54.6%. [I know it says 51% on the slide, but I thought he said 54.6% at the presentation.]
Ewan referred to the "significant potential" of the Triassic and Permian and talked about the wells already drilled and those to come. He presented a slide which superimposed Shaikan onto a map of London and also as compared to the Brent Field [It occurred to me this slide might be worth showing a non-GKP investor to get them interested!], then compared it with middle eastern fields and 'frontier' discoveries, saying the block was "well on the way to being compatible" [with the largest fields discovered]. He mentioned a one-third recovery factor and that the "technical guys" say that "is entirely appropriate" for Shaikan.
He pointed out that every well drilled so far had been successful and referred to the "range of different oil types" produced. He pointed out Shaikan [wells] 1 and 3 are tied to the existing production facilities that can both produce approximately 10,000 bopd, meaning GKP can "easily achieve" 10 to 20 thousand bopd just from these two wells. He then referred to the technical results of the other wells as explained on the slide. He said the recent seismic work corresponded with the 2D results, or perhaps showed an even bigger structure but was difficult to assess because of the geology.
He referred to the "consistency across a very large area" [I don't know if he meant connectivity between the blocks, or just within Shaikan] and that part of the remaining work programme would be dedicated to checking across the area [again I don't know if this meant just Shaikan].
The production facility completed in September 2010, selling domestically from October 2010 (for which it was initially designed). [I think he then said some exports were made from February and in mid-March KRG asked production to be ramped up beyond the current capacity.] Ewan said there were two approaches to upping production, firstly by upgrading the production facilities which should be done Q1 or 2 next year and secondly as an interim measure by mixing chemicals into the oil to meet export specification, although there were "side effects". More recently the KRG identified a shortage in the domestic market so priority was again given to domestic sales.
SHEIKH ADI
[More or less as per the slide.] In addition mentioned something about "a leak" as one of the reasons for difficulty testing in the Triassic, and a "reverse fault structure" meaning they effectively drilled through the difficult Cretaceous twice.
BER BAHR
Ewan said this block was "of most interest to us now" and that the structure is "absolutely enormous" and is "really very very exciting" [the words used were slightly more emotive when describing this block compared to the others though not delivered in a different tone IMHO].
He then went on to mention "upside" which was not featured on the slide and referred to a "regional water level" of 2,230m and [assuming I understood this correctly, please advise if this is not correct] if present across the blocks would mean Sheikh Adi approximately half the size of Shaikan and [wait for it] Ber Bahr would be one and a half to two times the size of Shaikan[!] He then said words to the effect "there is nothing we have seen in any of these wells that discredits this case".
AKRI BIJEEL
[Nothing specific to add on this one.]
WORK PROGRAMME
"Everybody is eagerly awaiting Bekhme".
Ber Bahr is "the big prospect".
LITIGATION UPDATE
[Nothing significantly different to the slide.]
ANALYSTS
Ewan thought the SP had stood up "reasonably well".
He referred to lots of research now being done on GKP.
He thought that all the research done by the various analysts had come up with very similar findings and only varied by the risk factor applied [although a bit later he also said they varied by "resource numbers" which of course is rather a big factor!]
QUESTIONS
[It was difficult to hear the questions themselves as there was no travelling microphone etc, only Ewan's response. In response to different questions Ewan said:]
The KRG are only exercising their rights under the constitution. These difficulties will be resolved. These are political not legal difficulties. Nothing has changed [I believe he meant recently].
There are many positive developments.
Various exporting companies have been paid.
The Oil and Gas Law has been approved "by ministers" and will be put to parliament soon [I think he said in the next month or so.]
"My view" ... "was always going to be resolved".
In response to whether the blocks will be sold off individually, Ewan said everything will be considered. He also mentioned that we were in the "early stages" of "value creation" and that value can only be assessed with as much information as possible. There is still a lot to be proved up.
He doubted whether the Oil and Gas Law would modify GKP's contracts saying "I don't think so, that would come as a complete surprise to us."
In response to a question about the work programme not extending much into next year, Ewan suggested not reading too much into that, as much would depend on results from Ber Bahr and work with MOL.
In response to whether GKP would be building a pipeline [presumably to connect with BTC] he said routes have been considered and costings made, though by its nature it would fall under the strategic plan for Kurdistan but it was GKP's preference for their "own pipeline".
POST-PRESENTATION QUESTIONS
[Unfortunately I could not hear Ewan despite being only about five feet away due to background noise! Thankfully some people here clearly did get to ask questions and obtained responses they could hear!]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My apologies if your heard anything different to me or I missed something vital. I am very happy to hear if you disagree with my recollections.
=============
New O&G Law comment
bonobo77
60
From zooshare on advfn -
Yesterday, I posted some important bits from TWO drafts for the oil and gas law to be submitted early sept, after Eid holiday, having read both drafts in Arabic. I can confirm again that what has been reported tonight re "Oil and Gas Law has been approved by ministries and will be put to vote in due course" is consistant with what I read. But what is more important is what the "draft approved by ministers" says about contracts pre and after approval. The draft law is quite strict and demanding on all NEW contracts, but not the existing ones as these will be refereed to a very small committee to review and ratify. NO BIG FUSS WAS KICKED RE SIGNED CONTRACTS. all imo
Might explain the Afren comment that their (favourable) PSC terms would not have been on the table much longer. Might also explain why our BOD have never batted an eyelid over the legitimacy of our existing contracts.
Things do appear to be coming to a head.
============
Another Strange Thing
Hub
13UP
many E&P's got battered today and GKP's close of 24% down does not tell the full story.
But with Exxon due to make an apparent 'decision' in days and March 8th conference looming - shorting GKP at 250p+ doesn't look like a bright idea does it!? It's a risky move.
We now seem to be in a position whereby the market has removed some of the 'takeover value' potential from GKP. It shows that the market really was looking at an offer as a distinct possibility. You wouldn't know that reading some broker notes these days!
So what happens if/when Exxon declare they have no intention to cancel kurd deals? Boom time again?
It seems mighty odd to me that the market is pricing anything at all on a takeover - as it was only a rumour lol! Or was it?
And if the deal falls through and Exxon walk - what's the big deal? CJ has already stated that the Chinese are ready and waiting.
The journey has been dramatic since GKP sprung into life on Shaikan discovery.
But just imagine if the end game ended with the sp dropping to 200p ranges, shareholders jumping ship as they are fed up (even though the sp is in blue for 2012) and then one or two days after - PWP announce advance talks with Sinopec for £10 per share deal. Ouch.
What a strange finale that would be. Mixed emotions indeed i'm sure.
HUB
-
CJ
andean3
29UP
The man is in hospital tonight. Under the circumstances i think it would be good to leave this thread here, til such time he can
My thoughts are with CJ and family.
======
Mar06/12
01:58
Re: Feeling the fear
daeyeon
9UP
Why is it that 'PIs' get robbed? I'm really curious as to how a PI can be robbed, or stitched up, mugged etc.
I am a PI but have bought at various prices, but not once have I felt the urge to sell. When buying in 2008 I saw a great project. After the oil find at Shaikan, I saw a great project get better. With each informative RNS I saw a project develop into a great story. We had a few knocks along the way with Excalibur, ETAMIC, politics etc, even a few operators hitting dusters, but it seems that we have had nothing but pretty good luck, or dare I saw it, good judgement from Mr. Adnan Samarrai with regards to the 'peachy good' exploration targets. He, who had worked for the old regime since the 70s. He knew a thing or two, about oil targets in Iraq and don't forget it.
It's a dirty business is oil, it's a dirty business in the city, but fundamentals stand the test of time, and GKP has a P50 of 10.5B alone at Shaikan with drill updates and flow rates to come. Don't forget it! With SA and AB P50s we could argue that we have net to GKP (after share calculated and a RR of 30%) 2.27B barrels with the treemedous upside potential at SH,AB,SA and BB, oh and the gas.
Take the current market cap into consideration of approx. 1.43B GBP / 2.27B barrels NET to GKP = 63 pence per barrel!
63p per barrel, and remember that Genel paid $5.80 per barrel for P50 eqiuivalent* 2P reserves. Remember that we have upside to come. Hold your shares I say. Cheap to produce onshore oil I say.
There has been a lot of chat about Exxon requiring more time to give a response to Shahristani, you know the guy, influenced by Iran. What would happen if Kurdistan did consolidate its relationship with Turkey and had green lights and security for exports through Turkey. What if they went the declaration of independance route, with the backing of the UN and the US oil majors? Pipeline tenders are pressing ahead. What if they became their own country, became an OPEC producer? They would surely then get an export quota from OPEC in their own right based on total reserves. That's possibly way down the road if Bahgdad doesn't play ball.
What if Exxon didn't give up Kurdistan? Shahristani will have to find a replacement for the West Quarna project, how many majors would b interested in the project with its capex requirements and low $1.60 pay back per barrel? That revenue is a tiny percentage of its worldwide revenues. Six exploration blocks in Kurdistan would be a small warrant cost to them. Iraq has more to lose than Exxon imo.
Finally on this point, I don't see the other US companies, Marathon, Murphy, Hess etc running for the doors, do you?
On a final note, I didn't gamble on SBs or CFDs (above 105p anyway) so am sitting comfortably, but this PI did but more real shares at 289p, 242p, 259p yesterday. PIs may have been squeezed out today, but all I saw was long term value being presented on a plate. It's only a loss if I sell, which I won't be doing until the project has been completed which is full appraisals between now and 2014 unless an offer too good to refuse comes in. Which hasn't as of yet. I doubt we will see a 36%+ hit on the FTSE either, should we enter it, on a no 'real' news day.
Arguably 63p or thereabouts per barrel, don't be fooled.
GLA
======
01:06
Daily Mail: MARKET REPORT: Keystone leav...
pathai
2UP
Ouch! Many speculators in the recently popular seat-of-your-pants junior oil market were left nursing hefty losses after more than £1billion was wiped off the value of Gulf Keystone Petroleum at one stage in hectic trading.
Shares of the Kurdistan-focused explorer crashed to an intra-day low of 210p before closing 80.75p or 24 per cent lower at 258.25p on turnover of 163million shares.
Sellers were active from the start following further consideration of a bearish HSBC note on prospects for oil companies in Iraq and news that Heritage Oil (8.9p off at 158p) had been hit by delays to its operations in the Kurdistan region of Iraq.
Oil explorer: More than £1billion was wiped off the value of Gulf Keystone Petroleum at one stage in hectic trading
But what really sparked a stampede of selling was news that Iraq had set a deadline for the next few days for Exxon Mobil to explain its position on oil agreements signed with the autonomous Kurdish region, which the central government considers illegal.
The Kurdistan Regional Government announced in November the signing of a deal for six exploration blocks with ExxonMobil, the first major oil company to deal directly with the Kurds in northern Iraq.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-2111305/MARKET-REPORT-Keystone-leaves-gulf-pockets.html
Last updated at 12:49 AM on 7th March 2012
Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2111305/MARKET-REPORT-Keystone-leaves-gulf-pockets.html#ixzz1oOAIiraX
Exxon recently confirmed plans to explore for oil in Iraq in its annual report. Gulf Keystone had more-than-doubled this year and touched a 52-week peak of 465p early last month amid intense speculation that once in Iraq, ExxonMobil would launch a bid for Gulf Keystone.
Fears that ExxonMobil could now be put off the region had punters sprinting for the exit, some trousering useful profits along the way. Exacerbating the fall was the fact that several heavyweight CFD (contract for difference) speculators had to respond to strict margin
Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2111305/MARKET-REPORT-Keystone-leaves-gulf-pockets.html#ixzz1oOA4WjOm
=====
Author Elikkos Georghiades View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 01:54
Subject Re: Clear case of View parent message
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 7 times.
Message
Hi F22, no I don't believe I am either "blinded" by greed. or naive. I most certainly have a different strategy to yours and those of other traders. In particular, my strategy has a fundamental objective which is to leave the equity markets for good as soon as I meet my overall target price in the various shares that are invested that I have invested.
My philosophy is that money is for spending and (in far as I can) for helping those close to me. I cannot achieve that objective in my chosen time scale by simply trading in and out of shares for quick profit which is why my 2 or 3 most important shares are in what I consider to be fundamentally sound and undervalued companies, namely GKP, RKH and (to a dissapontingly lesser extent) XEL.
I have nothing against trading, selling or going short and (with the exception of shorting) I trade other shares like DES all the time. In the early days (up until last year) I even traded GKP and managed to bag over £17k in profit. But like RKH, GKP has reached a stage in its life which in my opinion makes it dangerous to trade. Both are awaiting news on a possible farmin / TO and since I find the risk of trying to trade and discovering that I am out when a good RNS is delivered far more daunting, I have made the conscious decision to leave them alone. In any event I have a sufficient quantity in both to achieve my overall objective should my price target be met .
You see its all very well traders coming here and saying you could have sold at over £4 and got more shares for your money or simply bagged the profit, but to do that I had to take the unacceptable risk (for me) of being locked out on a surprise announcement. And hindsight profit, does not alter my stance. If they went back up to £4.50 again and the traders returned I would still not sell for the same reason.
That is because the value which I need to achieve my objectives is considerably higher though not necessarily as high as some state the share is worth. In the case of RKH I would certainly consider selling at £7 and in the case of GKP + £12, though I need to remain a little flexible on both.
Well now if my strategy in your opinion leads you to conclude that I am naive and or greedy, then so be it, perhaps I am after all, but I will not alter it.
Having lost more than £60 k on the first 50p drop, I would be lying if I said I was not bothered by the significantly greater loss following todays carnage. But really F22, believe me I was not even tempted to sell. I was howevr tempted to buy more, but thought it best to see when some semblance of stability returned to the sp.
On a slightly different point, as dissapointed as I was about the dessimation of my profits, I was appalled and deeply saddened by the aggression, hostility, and downright cruel exchanges which this carnage brought out in many. I never cease to be amazed at the contrast between the friendly and helpful disposition people seem to have towards each other, when the sp is doing well from that which prevails and I witnessed today when it is falling off a cliff.
I find it incredibly sad that people in the grip of fear can lash out at each other in such a viscious manner. For instance whatever people may think of CJ, to stoop to the level of accusing him of lying about his serious illness is despicable and wholly unacceptable. It was not that long ago, when his "credentials" were vouched for by other respected posters and , and everyone was only too happy to read his positive posts. How selfish and cruel human nature can be when fear and paranoia set in.
And there were numerous other examples I'd rather not recall. But when people are criticised for doing no more than chosing to follow their own strategy and selling there is clearly something wrong with some of the attitudes here. I said yesterday that GKP had for some become more like some fanatic new religion where only posts towing the party line of "long and strong" and "keep the faith" (note the religious analogy) were tolerated and its true.
Anyway, I have said enough and after today I cannot bring myself to say anymore on this bb. There are some really good and genuinely helpful people here and I will continue to visit and read their posts, but today was a real eye opener in respect of many others. As wkfuture put it today was indeed really ugly.
Please forgive me that I did much more than answer your question in this long post but I simply had to get it off my chest.
Hoping you are well and prospering.
Kind Regards
Elikkos
----
Mar 6th/ 12
Tue 19:28
Re: BBBS/GRH1/Scara, etc
GKP.L
179UP
Are you there and have you all remained long and strong???? Or have you already departed? It would be interesting to hear your views on todays events.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gadfly,
I have to say that these are rather puzzling questions, especially if you have read ANY of my fairly frequent posts.
I was still in when GKP dropped to 87p last year. I never considered selling on the recent rise to £4+. The day-to-day movement in the SP, although frustrating, is of no ultimate consequence IMO.
Furthermore, my interpretation of TK's comments to the IoS recently, which I commented on extensively, was that he was warning us of possible City 'games'. And at such a crucial point in GKP's history I was hardly likely to participate in those games for POSSIBLE short-term gain, was I? It would be totally at odds with the position I have consistently maintained.
I posted a few weeks ago that the upside on this share was maybe £20, and the downside then was a fraction of the then £2. So, what has actually changed since then?
Yes, in retrospect it is very easy to think that you should have sold out at £4 and bought back in today at sub 230p.... IN RETROSPECT.
But what if all the IIs that were obviously buying in up to 450p only a few weeks ago were correct and the rumours we had heard and were becoming more confident about... were TRUE. How would selling all or part of my shareholding have benefited me then?
The point is that I have no idea what the market might choose to do in the short-term. But I do know where this share is going from a fundamental perspective in the longer-term. I suspect SH-4 results will be blinding, and I have long voiced the opinion that GKP will be able to prove the 'fill to spill' theory via SH-6 in about May/June 2012. So, I would be amazed if our NAV wasn't double what it is today... by then. It may be a roller-coaster ride until then, but I've already put up with 2.5 years of EXTREME volatility.
My view of today....
The article today about Exxon allegedly reconsidering its position was ludicrous in the extreme, and I see that viiva87 immediately clarified what he believes the true position to be. Do I believe what an aide to Shahristani says ahead of what common sense and logic dictates and the obvious implications of continued silence from Exxon which the same article refers to? Hardly.
But it seems that some poorly-researched city analysts, and the wider market may have been spooked by the article. Funny too how it seemed to assist the recent analyst downgrades from Canaccord and HSBC to achieve their target prices, and that the SP swiftly rebounded from around 210p. I don't trust the City and I never will - it leaves a very bad smell just like the Rockhopper fiasco of yesteryear.
And is it likely we will see more of these games? Probably, but 50 million shares traded/ re-cycled tells you all you need to know about the excitement surrounding these shares. The City doesn't trade over £150 million worth of shares in an AIM company on a whim - this is something very special indeed.
Yes, of course today was a thoroughly unpleasant experience and it is very disturbing seeing paper profits disappear at an alarming rate. But that is what they were.... PAPER profits. Try inputting a few figures into Spidey's NAV calc and I am sure you will see very clearly that the SP is essentially an irrelevancy.
There is only one way to look at it IMO - we are ONE DAY closer to that 'shock and awe' announcement many of us are anticipating very soon; ONE DAY closer to that first bid and the beginning of a possibly incredible auction; and ONE DAY nearer to the conclusion of this amazing, captivating, and admittedly very frustrating story.
ONE DAY, rodders... is certainly ONE DAY closer.... to coming true.
AIMHO and please DYOR.
GLA, scaramouche
--------
Author bonobo77 View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted Tuesday 20:15
Subject A Day Like Today
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 168 times.
Message
After a day like today, I have now sat back and taken stock of some of the comments on this BB -
‘Just about every oily is taking a battering this morning.’
‘Another example today as GKP dropped (30%) in just a crazy 30 min period as to why leverage is so dangerous. Just how many people have been stopped out today.’
‘time to turn off the screens’
‘this BB smacks of desperation. A negative RNS at this point will tip the SP further downwards.’ (Elena)
(SELL) … multiple sells now going through.’ (cameronian)
‘Subject: In Freefall … Yikes!’
‘I’m out’
‘Forced out … Fuk sticks. It's gonna take months to build up that position again. Well, it's been a journey guys. I wish you all well with your investments. I'll post again if I ever get back in.’
‘How have you been forced out? GKP is about fundamentals and so buying and holding until a time comes when the fundamentals change and you need to re assess. Don’t play silly 8uggers with the traders.’
‘Well I've survived today and you still ain't havin my shares.’
‘W_T_F happened?’
‘This was a 'bear raid' to end all bear raids, and must surely be the prequel to good News’
‘Always told myself I was a investor but I am now coming to the conclusion this is nothing more than gambling. Who knows what's next.’
-------
I’ll tell you 'what's next'. Because the above comments were taken from the BB in August, on the day the SP was taken down to 87p. Six months later and we hit 450p. And we are still three times higher than the low that prompted the above SELL recs, hernias and capitulations.
The act of surrendering or giving up. See synonyms at surrender.
A document containing the terms of surrender.
An enumeration of the main parts of a subject; a summary.
Read more: http://www.answers.com/topic/capitulation#ixzz1oPF7lKxc
So, after a day like today, do you know what’s next?
I think I do. And I will be here to experience it (unlike a few of the unfortunates above).
It’s Tuesday 6th March, 2012. And it's just another day in the life of possibly the world’s most prized junior oil E&P company.
Wel, well, well ... my limit buy finally kicked in:
20,000 295.06 59,315.51
All tucked away in the SIPP.
Back to the golf course, now.
--------------
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