Q+A-How important is the MQM for Pakistan's coalition?

28 Dec 2010

Source: reuters // Reuters


By Faisal Aziz

Dec 28 (Reuters) - Pakistan's dominant political force in its biggest city of Karachi, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), has said its two ministers in the federal cabinet would resign, raising questions about the government's future. [ID:nLDE6BQ13M]

Here are some questions and answers on the implications of the resignations and what could happen next for the coalition government led by President Asif Ali Zardari's Pakistan People's Party (PPP).


IS THE GOVERNMENT COLLAPSING?

Not immediately. The resignation of MQM's ministers will not lead to the fall of the government. But if the MQM leaves the coalition and sides with the opposition in parliament, as it has repeatedly threatened to do, that would cost the government its majority and it would collapse, unless it could win over some opposition members.

The coalition holds 181 out of 342 seats in parliament, nine more than the 172 needed to maintain its majority. With 25 members in the National Assembly, the MQM is the second largest partner in coalition led by the PPP.

The PPP already suffered a setback this month, when the Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam, a small coalition partner with eight seats, left the government over the sacking of one of its ministers, and sat with the opposition.

The MQM has not left the Sindh provincial government, where it is rules in partnership with the PPP.


HOW SERIOUS IS THE MQM THREAT TO LEAVE THE COALITION?

It is a growing threat. The MQM cited the government's failure to stem deteriorating law and order and growing corruption in the country amongst reasons for pulling its ministers from the cabinet.

The MQM leadership has grown increasingly uneasy with the PPP. The MQM has repeatedly criticised the government for a failure to protect its workers in Karachi, where hundreds of people have been killed this year in political violence.

It has been a vocal critic of government policies, including an unpopular reformed general sales tax (RGST), and its self-exiled leader, Altaf Hussain, has many a times spoken about the need for revolution to get rid of a "feudal" culture in Pakistan.

The party is also at odds with the Sindh province's home minister, Zulfiqar Mirza, a close aide to Zardari, who often blames the MQM for involvement in political violence.

The MQM termed the resignations of its ministers a first step and said it would make a decision soon on whether to remain in the federal and provincial coalitions.

While the MQM is known for issuing such threats, analysts say things are gradually shaping up towards a pull-out.

If the government loses its majority and no other party can form a viable coalition, an early election would have to be called. That would mean months of political wrangling and distraction from the country's main problems of fighting militancy and getting the economy back on track.


WILL THE MQM SIDE WITH THE OPPOSITION?

Unlikely. The MQM does not enjoy a good relationship with the main opposition party of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.

Some analysts say that Zardari's party might be able to win backing from other parties to maintain its majority if the MQM were to quit. But equally likely is that the MQM could act as a swing bloc, playing kingmaker and extracting as many concessions from the government as possible while it doesn't have the responsibility of governing.


WHAT ARE THE ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS?

Plenty. The government needs the MQM's support to push through reforms, promised with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), such as the RGST.

(For a Q+A on Pakistan and the IMF, click on [ID:nSGE6BR02F]

The MQM virtually controls the urban centres of the southern province of Sindh, of which Karachi is capital. Karachi is the financial, industrial and economic capital of Pakistan, contributing about 68 percent of the government's total revenue and 25 percent of gross domestic product.

It is home to the country's main stock exchange and its main port, a major transit point for military and other supplies bound for Western forces in Afghanistan.

Analysts say the withdrawal of the MQM could lead to street protests against the government in Karachi and that could trigger a resurgence of political violence. That in turn could disrupt NATO supplies as well as hurt industrial activity, seriously impacting the economy. (Editing by Chris Allbritton and Robert Birsel) (For more Reuters coverage of Pakistan, see: http://www.reuters.com/places/pakistan) (If you have a query or comment about this story, send an e-mail to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com)