Is Iran surrendering to the United States?

Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya is a sociologist, award-winning author and geopolitical analyst. Published time: December 30, 2013 08:46 Reuters/Morteza Nikoubazl Is the interim nuclear deal signed at the end of 2013 a signal of Tehran’s surrender, or is it the opening of a new chapter in American-Iranian relations that could see the normalization of ties? If history is to be learned from, normalization with Washington will also come with risks for Iran. Rouhani won the 2013 Iranian presidential elections by gaining the support of the overwhelming majority of Iranians with approximately 51 percent of the popular vote. His main opponent and the candidate with the second highest number of votes was the mayor of Tehran. Mayor Qalibaf only received about 16.5 percent of the popular vote. The other four candidates (Jalili, Rezai, Velayati, and Gharazi) respectively earned 11.31 percent, 10.55 percent, 6.16 percent, and 1.22 percent of the vote. Many Iranian voters saw these candidates as virtual clones of one another and distinguished Rouhani as the one that offered an alternative program. The consensus president In Washington there has been a tug-o’-war between the neo-con and realist camps about how to deal with Iran. The realists have now come out on top. In Tehran there has also been a parallel tug-o’-war over Iranian foreign policy. The political tug-o’-war in Tehran has seen the reformists and pragmatists contesting the principalist and conservative camp about how to deal with the United States. With the election of Hassan Rouhani the balance in Tehran has changed and loosened the dominant hold of the principalists and conservatives in the Iranian political arena. Despite the fact that he received the endorsement of the reformist camp and all its supporters, Hassan Rouhani is not the Iranian reformist that some have portrayed him as being. His supporters said that Rouhani would undo the damage that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s government had caused. Skeptics, however, phrase it like this: “Rouhani was the least bad candidate.” The fact that he was the only presidential candidate that had ties to all the different political groupings in Iran was what set Rouhani apart from the other candidates. His career as a security guru in Tehran, with deep connections to the national security and military structures of Iran, and his history of working with pragmatists and reformers made him acceptable or, at a very minimum, bearable for all the different political cliques in Tehran. In the sense that he has not excessively embraced reformist or conservative tendencies, he has been a genuine moderate so far. Iran's President Hassan Rouhani (Reuters/Adrees Latif) Iran's President Hassan Rouhani (Reuters/Adrees Latif) Rouhani made it clear that his administration would work for consensus among all of Iran’s political factions through a centrist political program. Since the 2009 protests over the re-election of Ahmadinejad the political divisions and polarization in Iran were sharpened. This is why Rouhani’s messages to the Iranian political establishment, as well as all of Iranian society, were ones calling for political unity and consensus politics. In his first speech as the president of Iran, Rouhani would highlight his platform of reconciliation and diplomatic recalibration: “Let our hearts be cleansed of resentment. Let conciliation replace estrangement and let friendship take the place of animosity. Let this take place. Let Islam’s compassionate face, Iran with its reasonable face, the Revolution with its human face, and the political system with its kind face continue to create epics.” Making sure not to aggravate Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his supporters, he would also thank them during his speech: “At this point I must thank and express my appreciation to the previous administrations, especially the Tenth Administration and its honorable former president, and for all of them I have the desire of success day by day.” Iran’s “Yes, We Can” man and grand negotiator President Rouhani presented himself as a negotiator par excellence during the election campaign in 2013. His promise to negotiate with the US and to lift the economic sanctions by changing the dynamics of Iranian diplomacy proved to be very popular with the business class and most of the middle class. “Moderation in foreign policy is neither surrender nor conflict, neither passivity nor confrontation. Moderation is effective and constructive interaction with the world,” he announced as president-elect. Rouhani’s inauguration ceremony on August 3, 2013 even marked the first time that foreign dignatories were formally invited to an Iranian presidential inauguration ceremony, which signaled Rouhani’s intentions to launch his diplomatic charm offensive. Using a spiritual tone, Rouhani let it be known during his first speech as president that he intended to get results, would not let partisan politics get the better of him, and would not silence his political critics: “I feel the heavy weight of these votes and this endorsement. And I seek refuge in God and God alone. I sincerely and humbly ask the compassionate Lord: O Lord, save Thy weak servant from the ills of arrogance and conceit, greed, avarice and envy. O Lord I take refuge in Thee from autocracy in opinion, haste in decision making, putting personal or group interests ahead of those of the public, and from the silencing of the mouths of rivals and critics. O Lord, help me so that I can be Your sincere server and a competent servant of the people and not to forget what happened to those who came before me. There is much to say, but time is short. It is best to cut the talk short and to walk the path. For the path to our goal is long and I am a new traveler.” In many ways, the fanfare and popularity that Rouhani has received and enjoyed in Iran can be compared to that which Barak Obama received in the US when he was elected. Rouhani carried a message of hope for many Iranians. The closing words in his inauguration speech were even turned into a song with a black and white video by Iranian artists just as how Obama’s speech at the 2008 New Hampshire primary was turned into a hit song by artists in the US. The video dedicated to President Rouhani was a copycat version of the Obama video that was produced by Hussein Dehbashi, who produced Rouhani’s election video ads. The Office of the Iranian President would later post the Iranian “Yes, We Can” video on Rouhani’s YouTube page. Tehran does business with Washington Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif (2nd L) shakes hands with US Secretary of State John Kerry (AFP Photo) Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif (2nd L) shakes hands with US Secretary of State John Kerry (AFP Photo) As soon as Rouhani became president, he selected Mohammad Javad Zarif to become Iran’s foreign minister. Jalili was replaced as the secretary-general of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran and the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 were taken over from the Supreme National Security Council by the Iranian Foreign Ministry. Zarif was selected as foreign minister not only because he was an excellent diplomat; Rouhani shrewdly selected Zarif for his experience as Iran’s interlocutor with the United States. Before his appointment as Tehran’s foreign minister, Zarif had served as the permanent representative of Iran to the UN in New York City, from where he served as Tehran’s contact man with the US government and US officials. Foreign Minister Zarif himself has stated that he and US Vice-President Joe Biden share a friendship. As one of the pillars of the Iranian national security establishment, Rouhani himself also has had a long history of dealing with US officials. In the past it was Rouhani that held secret talks with US President Ronald Reagan’s government on behalf of Iran. In this regard, he was one of the Iranian officials who negotiated the arms transfer agreement with Washington during the Iran-Iraq War that led to the Iran-Contra scandal. More recently, Rouhani dealt with the US as the secretary-general of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran during the presidency of Mohammed Khatami. It is no coincidence that US backtracking on attacking Syria led to talks with Iran and a warming of relations. In actuality the talks with Iran had started before the US backed down from bombing Syria. Rouhani’s government had begun dialogue with the US from the moment its mandate commenced. There are enough grounds to suspect that the threats to attack Syria also had the aim of working to gain traction in the secret talks that President Obama was having with Iran via the Sultanate of Oman. The political taboo of dealing with the US publicly has been broken by President Rouhani. Since the start of his term, Rouhani authorized Zarif to meet with US Secretary of State John Kerry. Rouhani himself held a brief, but historic, phone conversation with President Obama. Finally, an interim nuclear deal was reached between Iran and the P5+1, more specifically the United States. Iranian-American rapprochement In 1993, Zbigniew Brzezinski, the realist par excellence who served as US President Jimmy Carter’s national security advisor, announced that “Iran is clearly an aspirant to regional hegemony and it is prepared to outwait the United States.” Brzezinski explained that the Iranians had an imperial tradition as a great power and possessed both the religious and nationalist motivation to contest the US and Russia, and that Iran could count on the sympathies of its neighbors in such a rivalry. Because of Iran, in his own words, “the current American supremacy in the Middle East is built, quite literally, on sand.” Yet, that is not all Brzezinski has said about Iran. He stated that “it is not in America’s interest to perpetuate American-Iranian hostility.” He even went out of his way to warn US policy makers that Iran should not be antagonized by the US government to the point where Tehran would ally itself with Russia and China. Instead Brzezinski pushed for reconciliation as an aim of realist-driven US foreign policy. “Any eventual reconciliation [between the US and Iranian governments] should be based on the recognition of a mutual strategic interest in stabilizing what currently is a very volatile regional environment for Iran,” he explained. The “volatile regional environment” that Brzezinski mentions is formed by the three regions that are linked to Iran: the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Middle East. What he really meant was that Tehran and Washington should work together to influence these regions. Although it is unstated, what Brzezinski has in mind is a plan to get Iran to realign with the US in these regions against Russia and China. The possible negative ramifications of US-Iran rapprochement Critics of Rouhani see him and Zarif as surrendering to US demands as part of some type of internal regime change in Tehran. Such critics have argued that Iran has surrendered to Washington, whereas others have seen the interim nuclear agreement as a victory for Iran. Since Rouhani started negotiating with the US, Supreme Leader Khamenei has been forced to defend Rouhani and Zarif. Khamenei has warned the principalists and conservatives in Iran not to interfere in Rouhani’s negotiation efforts or to portray Rouhani and Zarif as traitors. “They are our own children and children of the Revolution,” Khamenei publicly declared on November 3, 2011. Among the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the political hardliners in Tehran, there are fears that the interim nuclear deal will lead to an even broader agreement and a normalization of relations with the United States that could potentially open the door for alterations in the political structure of Iran and give the reformists the upper hand. There were reserved statements released in November 2013 by Revolutionary Guard leaders, days before the interim nuclear agreement was reached, which assured the public that Iran’s ideology would not change, and that Iran would not bow down to any foreign powers. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (AFP Photo) Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (AFP Photo) As mentioned earlier, Rouhani’s government has pro-business characteristics. In this regard, there are legitimate concerns that go beyond politics which fear that restored relations with the US could see an opening up of the Iranian economy based on the neoliberal economic policies that many of the reformists—and pro-business conservatives—had embraced and favor that will see the state infrastructure and the public sector in Iran privatized further. If business ties are restored between the US and Iran, and there is a lot of talk about it, the Iranian government could entrench the Iranian economy on a path of neoliberal reforms and privatization. These would be similar to those that marked the Yeltsin years in Russia, which made an elite few rich and let foreign corporations plunder the Russian economy. Then there is the worst case scenario of Iran being used against its Eurasian partners. The insulation of Eurasia is incomplete without Iran. The Russian and Chinese need for a strategic Iranian partner is a component of any defensive strategy or viable alternative against US and EU encroachment into their geopolitical spheres of interest. The US may attempt to use its rapprochement with Iran to manipulate Tehran into hurting Russia and China. Iran’s ethnic, cultural, linguistic, and historic links with the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia could be used to launch an offensive against Moscow in the post-Soviet space, whereas Chinese energy security would be jeopardized if Iran agreed to collaborate with the US in any strategy against the Chinese. Eurasia or nothing! Although the Iranian political establishment is immensely more sophisticated than Libya, Tehran should not ignore how American-Libyan rapprochement ended and at what expense. Colonel Qaddafi even predicted it when he told the Arab League many years ago that the US had no loyalty to any of its Arab clients or friends, and that one day it could execute him. The mere fact that the US government and its allies have a different interpretation of the interim nuclear deal from Iran, China, and Russia is reason to pause with caution too. Of course this could be posturing to appease certain segments of public opinion, lobby groups, and US allies (e.g., Israel and Saudi Arabia) that are threatened by any rapprochement between Tehran and Washington. Yet, the fact that the EU has also refused to lift certain unilateral sanctions is reason enough for Tehran to be cynical. Iran’s place is in Eurasia. It would be a disaster if any rapprochement between the US and Iran came at the expense of Iranian-Russian ties or Chinese-Iranian ties. To his credit, Rouhani’s first foreign trip as president of Iran was to Kyrgyzstan in September 2013 for a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which is spearheaded by Russia and China. While being realistic, one should always hold onto hope. Iran’s “Yes, We Can” Man and his endeavors will hopefully not end up being the epic disappointment that his American counterpart, President Obama, has been for the people of the United States. The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.

Rafsanjani's last-minute entry transforms Iranian race

Khamenei adviser enters Iran's presidential contest Source: Reuters - Fri, 10 May 2013 09:10 AM Author: Reuters DUBAI, May 10 (Reuters) - An adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei joined the presidential race on Friday, with authorities keen to make the June vote a peaceful contrast to the upheaval that followed the disputed 2009 poll. Reformist groups have been suppressed or sidelined since then and the next president is likely to be picked from among a handful of politicians known for fealty to Khamenei, minimising the chances of political rifts leading to post-election chaos. Lawmaker and former parliament speaker Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel registered to run, state news agency IRNA reported, becoming the first of a trio of Khamenei loyalists to do so. Khamenei, who in theory stands above the political fray, is thought to want a reliable follower in the presidency after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's two turbulent terms - and to thwart any attempt by the outgoing president to promote his own successor. Allied with Haddad-Adel are former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati and Tehran mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf - Iranian media say two of them will step aside later in favour of whoever appears to have the best chance of winning the election. "Our final choice will be announced after the Guardian Council's decision," the semi-official Fars news agency quoted Haddad-Adel as saying after registering, referring to a body which vets applicants before they are allowed to run. The conservative council, made up of six clerics and six jurists, will publish the final candidate list later this month. The June 14 vote is a test for Iran after Ahmadinejad's re-election in 2009 ignited the worst street protests in the Islamic Republic's history, badly denting the legitimacy of its entrenched leaders and its hybrid clerical-electoral system. Khamenei, who has the final say in all major state affairs, endorsed Ahmadinejad's victory, rejecting opposition charges of election fraud. But the president later alienated the supreme leader by pursuing his own policies in often provocative ways. Among other candidates who registered on Friday was reformist Mohammad Reza Aref, who served as vice-president under former moderate President Mohammad Khatami. Khatami, who was elected in landslide victories in 1997 and 2001, has not made clear whether he will run this time. Candidate registration started on Tuesday and ends on Saturday. (Reporting by Zahra Hosseinian; Editing by Alistair Lyon) Sat, May 11 13:02 PM EDT By Yeganeh Torbati and Marcus George DUBAI (Reuters) - Former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani threw himself into Iran's election race on Saturday as a flurry of heavyweight candidates rushed to beat the registration deadline in the most unpredictable contest for decades. Iranian media reported that Rafsanjani - a relative moderate - had registered for the June 14 presidential election with just minutes to spare. His candidacy radically alters what was previously seen as a contest between rival conservative groups. The former president could scupper the hopes of 'Principlists', loyal to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who are aiming to secure a quick and painless transition and paper over the deep fissures between the opposing camps. Rafsanjani, 78, who was president from 1989 to 1997, is expected to draw some support from reformists because he backed the opposition movement whose protests were crushed after the last, disputed election in 2009. The election comes at a critical moment, as Iran reels from international sanctions over its disputed atomic program and faces the threat of attack by Israel if it crosses what the Jewish state calls a 'red line' towards acquiring a nuclear weapon. Tehran strenuously denies it wants an atomic bomb. A vast field of more than 400 candidates have thrown their names into the ring as potential successors to outgoing president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has long been at odds with the supreme leader. NUCLEAR NEGOTIATOR Shortly before Rafsanjani's announcement, Saeed Jalili, a hardline conservative who is seen as close to Khamenei and has led rounds of so far unsuccessful nuclear talks with world powers, entered his name as a candidate. Soon afterwards Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie, an aide to Ahmadinejad and a man viewed with intense distrust by conservatives, registered for the race, gripping Ahmadinejad's hand as the two flashed peace signs for photographers. Khamenei's camp sees Mashaie as leading a "deviant current" that seeks to set aside clerical influence in favor of a more nationalistic doctrine. The presidential vote is the first since Ahmadinejad's disputed re-election four years ago, when mass "Green movement" protests erupted after the defeat of reformist candidates Mirhossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi. Dozens were killed in the worst unrest since the 1979 revolution. The outcome of next month's contest will signal the extent of Khamenei's control at the summit of power in the Islamic Republic. It will also show whether he feels the need to reach out to opposition groups and whether the reformists are capable of making a comeback. Proponents of greater social and political freedoms have been suppressed or sidelined: Mousavi, his wife and Karoubi have been under house arrest for over two years. "SO MANY WILD CARDS" After a day of intense speculation about his intentions, the last-minute entry by Rafsanjani was a moment of political drama. Iranian television showed him smiling and waving as he sat in the crowded office where he registered his candidacy. "He knows if he runs he can have both the reformists' vote, and have some of the principlists. Rafsanjani is not the type to put aside power," said Mohammad Hossein Ziya, who campaigned for reformist Karoubi in 2009 and now edits Karoubi's website from the United States. Another reformist ex-president, Mohammad Khatami, endorsed Rafsanjani on Friday. "Rafsanjani is a pillar of the Islamic Revolution, whereas Khatami is a standard bearer of the reform movement," said Yasmin Alem, a U.S.-based expert on Iran's electoral system. "In the 2005 presidential poll, their constituencies competed against each other. But, since then, both have been marginalized and are now playing on the same side. "With so many wild cards now in the game, the fate of the election is now concealed in a smoke screen." The candidacy of Jalili promised to move the nuclear dispute to the forefront of the election campaign, and may also affect the tortuous negotiations between Iran and a six-power group consisting of the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany. "In any scenario, Jalili's candidacy is likely to put nuclear diplomacy on hold for a while," said Ali Vaez, Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group "He can't pursue the nuclear talks and his electoral campaign simultaneously. And if he is elected president, there will be a learning curve for his successor." Jalili is one of a host of Khamenei loyalists to put themselves forward, including charismatic Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, former foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati, and Mohsen Rezaie, who headed the Revolutionary Guards and lost to Ahmadinejad in 2009. Ahmadinejad's vice-president Mohammad Reza Rahimi also registered on Saturday. All candidates must be vetted by a conservative body of clerics and jurists known as the Guardian Council, which can disqualify any candidate without offering a justification. It typically narrows the field to just a handful of men. But there appears to be little of the popular enthusiasm that marked the run-up to the 2009 election, when many sensed a possibility of real change. In comments gathered before Saturday's rush of developments, ordinary Iranians said they were more preoccupied with the economy than with political infighting. "I only want to be able to feed and provide for my family. Anyone who can bring down inflation, create more jobs and lower rents will have my vote," said Majid, who works in a publishing company. Clothing designer Sotoudeh, 32, said: "I won't vote at all, no matter who comes. They stole our vote four years ago and I see no point in voting now." (Additional reporting by Zahra Hosseinian, Editing by Mark Trevelyan) ======================================================================== News Iran electoral watchdog hints at Rafsanjani rejection Mon, May 20 08:13 AM EDT By Yeganeh Torbati DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran's electoral watchdog said on Monday it would bar physically feeble candidates from running for president, in an apparent hint that it could disqualify 78-year-old former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani from the race. Rafsanjani, if he is allowed to run, would be a significant challenge to conservative hardliners who are ultra-loyal to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and who otherwise dominate the field for the June 14 presidential election. The wily, pragmatic cleric, who has often been close to the heart of power since Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, shook up the election contest earlier this month when he joined the race. But the Guardian Council, a conservative body of clerics and jurists that vets all candidates, may disqualify him, along with Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie, a close ally of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who also registered to run at the last moment.

"If an individual who wants to take up a high post can only perform a few hours of work each day, naturally that person cannot be confirmed," Guardian Council spokesman Abbas Ali Kadkhodai said on Monday, according to the ISNA news agency.

Kadkhodai did not name Rafsanjani. The council is due to present a final list of approved candidates on Tuesday to the Interior Ministry, which then has two days to announce it. Hardline legislators demanded last week that Rafsanjani and Mashaie be banned from running. Rafsanjani earned hardliners' ire for criticizing the crackdown on opposition protests after Ahmadinejad was re-elected in 2009 in a vote that reformists said was rigged. Conservatives are suspicious of Mashaie, saying he holds an unorthodox view of Islam and seeks to sideline clerical rule. Lawmaker Ali Motahari, who is close to Rafsanjani, told reporters on Monday that a rejection of Rafsanjani's candidacy would put the very principles of the state under question, "because Hashemi (Rafsanjani) had the biggest role in the Islamic revolution", according to the ILNA news agency. He derided the idea that Rafsanjani was too old, saying: "How do they know whether Hashemi can run the country or not?" Motahari also suggested that Khamenei could step in to push the Guardian Council to approve Rafsanjani's candidacy if it is initially rejected. The body re-qualified two reformist presidential candidates in 2005 after Khamenei intervened. Parliament proposed age restrictions for presidential candidates last year, but dropped the measure after opposition from the Guardian Council. Many Iranians would view Rafsanjani's disqualification on the basis of age as a political pretext - and it might look awkward for Khamenei, who reinstated Rafsanjani as head of the Expediency Council, an advisory body, in 2012. "It is hard to fathom a justification for Rafsanjani's disqualification," said Farideh Farhi, an Iran analyst at the University of Hawaii. "His disqualification on the basis of not being sufficiently committed to the Leader will also challenge the Leader's judgment." (Additional reporting by Marcus George; Editing by Alistair Lyon)

Israel may strike at ship allegedly carrying Iranian rockets to Gaza – report

Hezbollah says could hit all of Israel in future war Sun, Nov 25 08:37 AM EST 1 of 2 By Dominic Evans BEIRUT (Reuters) - Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel on Sunday that thousands of rockets would rain down on Tel Aviv and cities across the Jewish state if it attacked Lebanon. Speaking four days after the ceasefire which ended a week of conflict between Israel and the Islamist Hamas rulers of Gaza, Nasrallah said Hezbollah's response to any attack would dwarf the rocket fire launched from Palestinian territories. "Israel, which was shaken by a handful of Fajr-5 rockets during eight days - how would it cope with thousands of rockets which would fall on Tel Aviv and other (cities) ... if it attacked Lebanon?" Nasrallah said. The Fajr-5s, with a range of 75 km (45 miles) - able to strike Tel Aviv or Jerusalem - and 175 kg (386 lb) warheads, are the most powerful and long-range rockets to have been fired from Gaza. But Hezbollah, which fought Israel to a standstill in a 34-day war six years ago, says it has been re-arming since then and has a far deadlier arsenal than Hamas. Nasrallah has said Hezbollah could kill tens of thousands of people and strike anywhere inside Israel if hostilities break out again. "If the confrontation with the Gaza Strip ... had a range of 40 to 70 km, the battle with us will range over the whole of occupied Palestine - from the Lebanese border to the Jordanian border, to the Red Sea," Nasrallah said. Hezbollah could hit targets "from Kiryat Shmona - and let the Israelis listen carefully - from Kiryat Shmona to Eilat", he said, referring to Israeli's northernmost town on the Lebanese border to the Red Sea port 290 miles further south. The movement has warned that any Israeli attack against the nuclear facilities of its patron Iran, which has armed and funded the Lebanese Shi'ite Muslim militant group, would inflame the Middle East - though it has not specified its own response. In a move it said showed it could penetrate deep inside Israeli defenses, it flew a drone over Israel last month. The drone was shot down after flying 25 miles into southern Israel. Israel says its Iron Dome missile defense system knocked out 90 percent of the rockets fired from Gaza which were on course to hit populated areas. TENS OF THOUSANDS MARK ASHURA Nasrallah, who has lived in hiding since 2006 to avoid assassination by Israel, was speaking by video-link to tens of thousands of Shi'ite faithful in southern Beirut commemorating Ashura, the day when the Prophet Mohammad's grandson Hussein was killed in battle 13 centuries ago. Wearing a black turban and robes in a sign of mourning, the 52-year-old cleric said his Shi'ite movement wanted to prevent sectarian tension in Lebanon - fuelled by the civil war in Syria - plunging his country into renewed conflict. "We want to avert strife and Israel is our only enemy. We have no enemies in Lebanon," Nasrallah said. Many Sunni Muslim political leaders blamed Hezbollah's ally Syria for last month's bomb attack which killed a top intelligence official and plunged Lebanon into political crisis. The opposition March 14 coalition blamed Syria for the assassination and called on the Lebanese government, dominated by allies of Hezbollah and Syria, to quit. Sporadic clashes have erupted since then, including a shootout in the southern city of Sidon two weeks ago when three people were killed after supporters of a Sunni cleric tried to tear down Shi'ite Ashura banners. On Saturday the army said it arrested five people and seized 450 grams (1lb) of explosives in Nabatiyeh on the eve of an Ashura march in the southern Lebanese town which was attended by thousands of Shi'ite mourners, many striking their heads with blades to draw blood to mark the tragedy of Hussein's death. Security sources said the arrested men were Syrians suspected of planning an attack on the Ashura processions but Nasrallah, speaking late on Saturday, suggested they were trying to send arms to the conflict in Syria. "We already know that many Syrians arrive in Lebanon to buy weapons," he said. "Neither weather nor rain can frighten us, nor can explosions or security threats stand between us and Imam Hussein". (Additional reporting by Laila Bassam in Beirut and Dan Williams in Jerusalem; Editing by Louise Ireland) =========================== Published: 25 November, 2012, 14:38 TAGS: Arms, Conflict, Military, Politics, Iran, Israel, War, Vessels, Security, Transport, Violence TRENDS: Israel-Gaza strikes AFP Photo / ISNA / Amin Khoroshahi Israel has reportedly vowed to destroy rockets and other weapons being sent to Gaza by Iran. Tel Aviv issued this threat despite a recent ceasefire following eight days of bitter conflict between Gaza and Israel. Israeli spy satellites spotted a cargo vessel in the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas that was allegedly Gaza-bound and carrying arms, the Sunday Times reported. “Regardless of the ceasefire agreement, we will attack and destroy any shipment of arms to Gaza once we have spotted it,” an Israeli defense official told the newspaper. The vessel reportedly began its voyage last week just as Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire ending eight days of violence in Gaza, in which over 150 Palestinians died. The cargo is believed to include Fajr-5 rockets, similar to those used by Hamas in the conflict, and Shahab-3 ballistic missiles. The ship is set to travel through the Red Sea, Sudan and Egypt, according to the Sunday Times report. The newspaper also cited Israeli officials speculating that Iran could be moving longer-range ballistic missiles into Sudan, which could be aimed at Israel from the African country. The Sunday Times’ report comes a day after the Hamas leadership announced they aren’t ready to stop arming themselves, despite the recently-agreed truce and ceasefire. "We have no choice but to continue to bring in weapons by all possible means," senior Hamas leader Mahmoud al-Zahar told reporters, adding that he expected Tehran would "increase its military and financial support to Hamas." Earlier on Wednesday, exiled Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal thanked Shia-majority Iran for what he described as arms and funding. On Saturday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad expressed support for Gaza in the bloody conflict, praising what he called Palestinian "resistance and perseverance" against Israel, which he said must now "bow" to Palestinian rights, IRNA news agency reported. The eight-day Israeli assault on Gaza killed 168 Palestinians, mostly civilians. It also led to $300 million in economic damage, a Palestinian Chamber of Commerce report said. Hamas fired Fajr-5 rockets against Israel, an unsettling revelation for the Israeli public. The country was last targeted by the 3-meter-long missiles during its 2006 war with Lebanon, and was expecting smaller-range rockets to be used in the recent conflict. Hamas' Farj-5 arsenal was able to strike Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, cities that were not attacked during the previous escalation of violence between Israel and Gaza in 2008. The IDF was forced to rapidly deploy an additional battery of its Iron Dome air defense system to counter the threat. =============== Saudi diplomat shot dead in Yemen - Al Arabiya TV Wed, Nov 28 06:22 AM EST SANAA, Nov 28 (Reuters) - A Saudi diplomat was shot dead by unidentified gunmen in the Yemeni capital Sanaa on Wednesday, Saudi-owned Al Arabiya television reported, citing diplomatic sources. The station give no further details. Yemen has been grappling with a number of security problems including the local offshoot of al Qaeda. SANAA, Yemen: A Saudi diplomat and his body guard have been shot dead in Yemen capital Sanaa, reports said on Wednesday. According to the report, Yemen security officials say gunmen have killed the diplomat, who was a member of Saudi military delegation. Another reports says, the diplomat and his Yemeni guard were killed on 50 Meter Road. Saudi-owned Al Arabiya television citing diplomatic sources also confirmed the incident, however, the station gave no further details. =========== Trotsky permanent revolution and Al-Zawahiri Perpetual Jihad Posted 27 June 2011 - 05:38 AM Bin Laden may be remembered as the Muslim warrior who was able to attack targets inside America and who had forced the Americans to launch very costly wars on Afghanistan and Iraq respectively, in 2001 and 2003. Many believe it was Dr Ayaman Al-Zawahiri who should be credited with expanding the limited agenda of Bin Laden’s Al-Qaeda from freeing the holy Saudi Arabian lands, from the boots of the American infidels, to fighting continuous Islamic Jihadi wars throughout the world similar to Trotsky’s permanent socialist revolution. Because of the death of the 19 attackers and because of security reasons, the full details of what had happened on September 11, 2001 are still unknown. Nevertheless, the ability to launch damaging attacks on the WTC and the Pentagon despite the presence of 15 US intelligence agencies showed Al-Qaeda to having operators with quasi superhuman talents. While in Egypt, Medical Doctor Al-Zawahiri was credited with planning the assassination of President Anwar Al-Sadat on October 6, 1981, following his visit to Israel. Those close to Bin Laden know that their leader is not the person with the exceptional capabilities or with the high intelligence but they give credits to others, some still faceless, and to Dr Al-Zawahitri in carrying out spectacular attacks. It will take Al-Zawahiri some time before proving his worth in evading the US bullets and in launching the next attack which he promised to avenge the death of Bin Laden. Al-though Al-Qaeda hasn’t been in the news lately despite their daily attacks in Iraq, Pakistan and Yemen. However, Dr Al-Zawahiri’s job is being facilitated by the American unlimited support for the intransigence of the extreme right-wing government of Netanyahu-Liebrman in Israel and by the American desperate attempts to undermine the on-going Arab people uprisings against the USraeli Arab agents in government. The Americans have eliminated the enemies of the Islamic revolution in Afghanistan (2001) and in Iraq (2003), naturally to the cheers of the Iranians. The Arabs will also cheer the Americans if they eliminate their enemies in Israel. . Be reasonable and ask the impossible from the American Zombies whom I have given up on them. Mr Jesse Ventura believes that the shooting of four innocent students at the Kent University Campus by the Ohio National Guard on May 4, 1970=27th Safar/1425 shocked America and lead to the end of the Vietnam war. At the time, the students were demonstrating against Nixon-Kissinger's attempt to extend the Vietnam war to Cambodia. Following the shooting, four million US students went on strike that opened the eyes of the rest of the nation. Mr Ventura advised the 'Occupy Movement', to make sacrifices in order for the nation to hear their warnings of the danger of the mafias controlling the US Banks and its Financial institutions. Despite 5000 universities and high teaching institutes, the Americans are unable to connect the dots and end up being ruled by imbeciles like Ronald Reagan and G.W. Bush. The stupid Americans went to invade and destroy Iraq while they should have invaded Saudi Arabia. They are currently trying to undermine Iran while they should concentrate on Pakistan where most of the terrorists are being bred and exported. The Americans can't name one single Iranian or Iraqi who have carried out terrorist attack anywhere on earth. Bin Laden was a Saudi so were 15 out of the 19 who carried out the attacks on 9/11. Al-Zawahiri is an Egyptian so was Mohammed Al-Atta. Al-Zarqawi was a Jordanian. Adnan Darwash, Iraq Occupation Times

'US sets stage for war against Iran'

Sat, 31 Dec 2011 15:08:39 GMTThe recent allegations made by the United States against Iran have set the stage for a war against the Islamic Republic, an American analyst says. "With the typical backdrop of alarmist propaganda in place, the stage is now set for a new war, this time with Iran," Robert Parry said in an article on Global Research. "There is now a cascading of allegations regarding Iran, as there was with Iraq, with the momentum rushing toward war," he added. The analyst noted that "tougher and tougher Western sanctions against Iran have pushed the various sides closer to war… as happened with Iraq -- when harsher economic sanctions merged with a US troop build-up." Warning of "devastating consequences" of a "prospective war with Iran," Parry also said Washington's allegation that Iran is on pace to build a nuclear bomb resembles accusations that Iraq possessed Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). In 2003, the US invaded Iraq under the pretext that former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein possessed the Weapons of Mass Destruction. However, it was later revealed that not only Iraq was not in possession of WMDs but also that US and UK leaders were aware the non-existence of such weapons. The US analyst blasted the recent report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) about Iran, saying that the report "was widely accepted as gospel truth without any discussion of whether the IAEA is an unbiased and reliable source." Parry said the documentary evidence showed that IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano was installed with the support of the United States and that he privately indicated to US and Israeli officials that he would help advance their goals regarding Iran. In November, the IAEA accused Iran of conducting activities related to developing nuclear weapons before 2003, adding that these activities “may still be ongoing.” Iran, however, rejected the report as “unbalanced, unprofessional and prepared with political motivation and under political pressure mostly from the United States.” Washington and Tel Aviv have repeatedly threatened Tehran with the "option" of a military strike, based on their allegation that Iran's nuclear program may include a covert military aspect. Iran insists that it has the right to develop and acquire nuclear technology for peaceful purposes as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and a member of the IAEA.=======================Iran dismisses U.S. sanctions on its Central Bank -report01 Jan 2012 08:59Source: Reuters // ReutersTEHRAN, Jan 1 (Reuters) - Iran dismissed on Sunday Washington's move to impose new sanctions on financial institutions dealing with the Islamic state's central bank over the country's disputed nuclear programme, the Students news agency reported.President Barack Obama signed the bill, approved by Congress last week, which aims to reduce Tehran's oil revenues but gives the U.S. president powers to waive penalties as required.The head of Iran's Chamber of Commerce, Mohammad Nahavandian, rejected the move as "unjustifiable", saying such sanctions would have reciprocal consequences."The Iranian nation and those involved in trade and economic activities will find other alternatives," said Nahavandian.Washington and the European Union have already pushed four rounds of sanctions through the United Nations over Iran's nuclear programme and imposed unilateral measures that have deterred Western investment in Iran's oil sector, making it harder to move money in and out of the country.Imposing sanctions on the central bank would tighten that screw and make it more difficult for Iran to receive payments for exports -- particularly oil, a vital source of hard currency for the world's fifth-biggest crude exporter.Iranian officials insist that foreign sanctions have had no impact on the country's economy."The sanctions have raised the cost of trade and economic transactions but it has not managed to change Iran's political behaviour," Nahavandian said.So far, Iran's leaders have shown no sign of changing the country's nuclear course despite mounting international pressure to force it to stop.U.S. financial institutions are already generally prohibited from doing business with any bank in Iran, including the central bank, so the new measure by Washington would have to be carried out with international agreement.Nahavandian said European countries should not miss the investment opportunity in an emerging market like Iran."Considering the economic crisis in Europe, the European companies are after finding new markets ... political disputes should not have an impact on trade relations," he said.Senior U.S. officials said Washington was engaging with its foreign partners to ensure the sanctions can work without harming global energy markets and stressed the U.S. strategy for engaging with Iran was unchanged by the bill.Washington and its allies say Iran is trying to build nuclear bombs under the cover of a civilian programme. Tehran denies that, saying it needs nuclear technology to generate power. (Reporting by Parisa Hafezi; Editing by Paul Tait)=========================Persian Gulf no place for arrogant powersSun Jan 1, 2012 3:38AM GMTThe commander of the Iranian Navy, Rear Admiral Habibollah SayyariThe commander of the Iranian Navy says the message of the ongoing Velayat 90 naval maneuver is that arrogant powers have no place in the Persian Gulf region.Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari made the remarks during a visit to the domestically- manufactured Jamaran destroyer on Saturday. “We (Iran) are diplaying our defensive and preventive capabilities in the free waters through the Velayat 90 maneuver,” he said. He noted that the presence of foreign navies in the region causes regional insecurity and emphasized that the establishment of sustainable security in the region in cooperation with neighboring countries is one of the goals of the naval maneuver. Iran's Navy launched the massive 10-day Velayat 90 naval exercise on December 24, covering an area stretching from the east of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Aden. EU foreign ministers failed in their attempts to enforce an embargo on Iran's oil exports during a meeting in Brussels on December 1, about a week after the United States, Britain, and Canada imposed unilateral sanctions on the Islamic Republic's energy and financial sectors over Tehran's nuclear program. Iran has warned that it can respond to proposed Western oil sanctions and threats against the Islamic Republic by choking the oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Sayyari announced on December 30 that the country's naval forces can block the strategic Strait of Hormuz if necessary, saying, “Our (Iran's) intention is to bring stability and security to the region, and we would like to show everyone that we can provide security in the region without a need for extra-regional powers.” And Iranian First Vice President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi warned on December 27 that the imposition of oil sanctions against the Islamic Republic would prompt Tehran to prevent oil from passing through the strategic route. “If they impose sanctions on Iran's oil, not even a drop of oil will be allowed through the Strait of Hormuz,” he added. =====================FACTBOX-Sanctions imposed on Iran02 Jan 2012 13:48Source: Reuters // ReutersJan 2 (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama signed into law on Saturday new sanctions against financial institutions dealing with Iran's central bank, which if fully implemented could hamper Tehran's ability to sell oil on international markets.The bill gives the White House some discretion to issue waivers to protect energy markets, and U.S. officials say Obama will discuss with international partners how to impose the measures without causing major oil market disruption.The European Union is also expected to consider at the end of this month whether to impose an oil embargo.While Iran will still probably be able to sell oil to customers in Asia, they will demand a discount, which would cut Tehran's income from its main export sector.Following are details of major sanctions imposed on Iran by the European Union, the United States and the United Nations over the years.EU SANCTIONS:- On Aug. 12, 2010 the EU toughened its sanctions against Tehran, including banning the creation of joint ventures with enterprises in Iran that are engaged in the oil and natural gas industries and any subsidiary or affiliate under their control.- Member states must prohibit the provision of insurance and re-insurance to the government of Iran.- The import and export of arms and equipment that could contribute to uranium enrichment or have a "dual use" is banned.- The sanctions forbid the sale, supply or transfer of energy equipment and technology used by Iran for refining, liquefying natural gas, exploration and production. The EU expects the effects of the sanctions to increase over time as existing parts wear out.- In May 2011, EU foreign ministers significantly extended sanctions and added 100 new entities to a list of companies and people affected, including those owned or controlled by the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL).- In October, the European Union imposed sanctions on 29 people, extending the list targeting individuals associated with human rights violations to 61.- On Dec. 1, EU foreign ministers decided new sanctions should be drawn up in time for their next meeting in Jan. 2012.Separately, they added 180 Iranian people and entities to a sanctions blacklist that imposes asset freezes and travel bans on those involved in the nuclear programme.U.S. SANCTIONS:- Initial sanctions were imposed after Iranian students stormed the U.S. embassy and took diplomats hostage in 1979. Iranian products cannot be imported into the United States apart from small gifts, information material, foodstuffs and some carpets.- In 1995, President Bill Clinton issued executive orders preventing U.S. companies from investing in Iranian oil and gas and trading with Iran. Tehran has looked for other customers.- The same year, Congress passed a law requiring the U.S. government impose sanctions on foreign firms investing more than $20 million a year in Iran's energy sector.- In Oct. 2007, Washington imposed sanctions on three Iranian banks and branded the Revolutionary Guards a proliferator of weapons of mass destruction. The Treasury has since added numerous other Iranian banks to its blacklist.- The Treasury has identified about 20 petroleum and petrochemical companies as being under Iranian government control, an action that put them off-limits to U.S. businesses under the trade embargo.- Congress approved tough new unilateral sanctions on June 24, 2010, aimed at squeezing Iran's energy and banking sectors, which could also hurt companies from other countries doing business with Tehran.- The June, 2010 law imposes penalties on firms that supply Iran with refined petroleum products worth more than $5 million over 12 months. It also effectively deprives foreign banks of access to the U.S. financial system if they do business with Iranian banks or the Revolutionary Guards.- In May, 2011 the United States blacklisted a 21st Iranian state bank, the Bank of Industry and Mines, for handling transactions on behalf of two previously sanctioned institutions, Bank Mellat and Europaeisch-Iranische Handelsbank.- It also announced new sanctions on Venezuela's state oil company, PDVSA, and six other smaller oil and shipping firms for engaging in trade with Iran in violation of the U.S. ban, prompting fury from Hugo Chavez's government.- On June 11, it announced new sanctions applicable to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Basij Resistance Force, Iran's Law Enforcement Forces and its commander, Ismail Ahmadi Moghadam. The sanctions freeze any of the targets' assets under U.S. jurisdiction and bar U.S. persons and institutions from dealing with them.- On Nov. 21 the United States named Iran as an area of "primary money laundering concern", a step designed to dissuade non-U.S. banks from dealing with it. The United States also blacklisted 11 entities suspected of aiding its nuclear programmes; and expanded sanctions to target companies that aid its oil and petrochemical industries.- U.S. sanctions against Iran can be found on the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control website: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/pages/iran.aspx- On Dec. 31, 2011, U.S. President Barack Obama signed into law a defence funding bill that imposes sanctions on financial institutions dealing with Iran's central bank, which is the main conduit for oil revenues. Sanctioned institutions would be frozen out of the U.S. financial markets.- The sanctions would take effect after a 2-6 month warning period. Under the law, the president can issue waivers if doing so is in the national security interest of the United States or otherwised necessary for energy market stability.OTHER COUNTRIES:BRITAIN: On Nov. 21, in a coordinated action with the United States and Canada, Britain ordered all British financial institutions to stop doing business with their Iranian counterparts, including the Iranian central bank. The sanctions were in response to a Nov. 8 IAEA report which said Iran has worked on developing a nuclear weapon design.CANADA: Canada announced on Nov. 21 it would immediately ban the export to Iran of all goods used in the petrochemical, oil and gas industry, as part of an international sanctions package, the government said.SWITZERLAND: Added five people and 111 organisations to its list of Iranian entities under sanction on Nov. 18. Earlier sanctions included a ban on certain financial transactions and Swiss companies selling or delivering so-called dual use goods.U.N. SANCTIONS:- The Security Council has imposed four sets of sanctions on Iran, in December 2006, March 2007, March 2008 and June 2010.- The first covered sensitive nuclear materials and froze the assets of Iranian individuals and companies linked with the nuclear programme.- The second included new arms and financial sanctions. It extended an asset freeze to 28 more groups, companies and individuals engaged in or supporting sensitive nuclear work or the development of ballistic missiles.- The third increased travel and financial curbs on individuals and companies. It expanded a partial ban on trade in items with both civilian and military uses to cover sales of all such technology to Iran.- A Security Council resolution passed on June 9, 2010, called for measures against new Iranian banks abroad if a connection to the nuclear or missile programmes was suspected.- It expanded a U.N. arms embargo against Tehran and blacklisted three firms controlled by IRISL and 15 belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The resolution called for setting up a cargo inspection regime.- Annexed to the draft resolution was a list of 40 companies to be added to an existing U.N. blacklist of firms. (Reporting by David Cutler, London Editorial Reference Unit, and Peter=========================Iran threatens action if US carrier returns-IRNA03 Jan 2012 09:27Source: ReutersMembers of Iran's Navy cheer after launching a long-range shore-to-sea missile called Qader (Capable) during the Velayat-90 war game on the Sea of Oman's shore near the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran January 2, 2012. REUTERS/Jamejamonline/Ebrahim Norouzi. This image has been supplied by a third party. It is distributed, exactly as received by Reuters, as a service to clientsTEHRAN, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Iran will take action if a U.S. aircraft carrier which left the area because of Iranian naval exercises returns to the Gulf, the state news agency quoted army chief Ataollah Salehi as saying on Tuesday. "Iran will not repeat its warning ... the enemy's carrier has been moved to the Sea of Oman because of our drill. I recommend and emphasise to the American carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf," Salehi told IRNA. "I advise, recommend and warn them (the Americans) over the return of this carrier to the Persian Gulf because we are not in the habit of warning more than once," the semi-official Fars news agency quoted Salehi as saying. Salehi did not name the aircraft carrier or give details of the action Iran might take if it returned. Iran completed 10 days of naval exercises in the Gulf on Monday, and said during the drills that if foreign powers imposed sanctions on its crude exports it could shut the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 percent of the world's traded oil is shipped. The U.S. Fifth Fleet, which is based in Bahrain, said it would not allow shipping to be disrupted in the strait. Iran said on Monday it had successfully test-fired two long-range missiles during its naval drill, flexing its military muscle in the face of mounting Western pressure over its controversial nuclear programme. Iran also said it had no intention of closing the Strait of Hormuz but had carried out "mock" exercises on shutting the strategic waterway. Tehran denies Western accusations that it is secretly trying to build atomic bombs, saying it needs nuclear technology to generate electricity. The United States and Israel have not ruled out military action against Iran if diplomacy fails to resolve the Islamic state's nuclear row with the West. The European Union is considering following the United States in banning imports of Iranian crude oil. U.S. President Barack Obama signed new sanctions against Iran into law on Saturday, stepping up the pressure by adding sanctions on financial institutions that deal with Iran's central bank. (Writing by Parisa Hafezi; Editing by Tim Pearce) ((parisa.hafezi@thomsonreuters.com)(+98 21 8820 8770)(Reuters Messaging: parisa.hafezi@thomsonreuters.com))=================Iran threatens U.S. Navy as sanctions hit economy=203 Jan 2012 23:23Source: Reuters // Reutersa hard bargain. China, which bought 11 percent of its oil from Iran during the first 11 months of last year, has cut its January purchase by about 285,000 barrels per day, more than half of the close to 550,000 bpd that it bought through a 2011 contract.The impact of falling government income from oil sales can be felt on the streets in Iran in soaring prices for state subsidised goods and a collapse of the rial currency."The rate is changing every second ... We are not taking in any rials to change to dollars or any other foreign currency," said Hamid Bakshi at an exchange office in central Tehran.The economic impact is being felt ahead of a nationwide parliame===============EXCLUSIVE-WRAPUP 1-In major blow, EU agrees embargo on Iranian crude04 Jan 2012 17:54Source: Reuters // Reuters(Corrects to 2.6 million bpd in paragraph 6, sted 2.6 billion bpd)* Oil move targets key sector of Iranian economy* Embargo would force Iran to seek business elsewhere* Ban could hurt Iran's revenues, stoke tensions at homeBy Justyna Pawlak and Parisa HafeziBRUSSELS/TEHRAN, Jan 4 (Reuters) - European governments have agreed in principle to ban imports of Iranian oil, EU diplomats said Wednesday, dealing a potentially heavy blow to Tehran that crowns new Western economic sanctions imposing real pain just months before an Iranian election.The prospective embargo from the European Union, along with tough U.S. financial measures signed into law by President Barack Obama on New Year's Eve, form a concerted Western campaign to impose sanctions over Iran's nuclear programme.Iran says its nuclear programme is strictly peaceful, but Western countries say a November U.N. report shows it has sought to build an atomic bomb. Talks between Tehran and major powers broke down a year ago.Diplomats said EU envoys had held talks on Iran in the last days of December, and that any objections to an oil embargo had been dropped - notably from crisis-hit Greece which gets a third of its oil from Iran, relying on Tehran's lenient financing. Spain and Italy are also big buyers."A lot of progress has been made," one EU diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "The principle of an oil embargo is agreed. It is not being debated any more."The embargo will force Tehran to find other buyers for oil. EU countries buy about 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iran's 2.6 million bpd in exports, making the bloc collectively the second largest market for Iranian crude after China.The news caused a spike rise in oil prices, with Brent crude peaking at nearly $114 a barrel in intraday trading, up nearly $2 from Tuesday's close.Tehran insisted it would have no trouble: "We could very easily replace these customers," said S. M. Qamsari, International Director of the National Iranian Oil Co.But the new U.S. sanctions have already made it difficult for Iran to keep the customers it has, and could force it to offer steep discounts to countries willing to risk doing business with it, hurting its revenues.Biggest trading partner China, driving a hard bargain, has cut its order of Iranian oil by more than half this month.REAL IMPACTWestern countries have imposed various sanctions on Iran for years with little impact but the latest measures are qualitatively different, directly targeting Iran's oil industry, which forms 60 percent of its economy.Most traders expect Iran will still find buyers for its crude, mostly in Asia, but it is going to have to offer substantial discounts, cutting back the revenue that the state relies on to subsidise basic goods for its citizens.Tougher sanctions appear to be having an impact already on Iran's streets, where prices for foodstuffs are soaring. The rial currency has lost 40 percent of its value against the dollar over the past month.Currency exchanges have shut in Tehran and Iranians have queued to withdraw their savings from banks and buy dollars.That economic hardship is being felt by the public two months before a parliamentary election, Iran's first since a disputed 2009 presidential vote that led to massive street demonstrations, put down violently by Iran's rulers.Iran's leaders are anxious to prevent any popular unrest, especially after the Arab Spring revolts last year showed the vulnerability of Middle Eastern governments to street protest.Iran has warned that any steps to cut its oil exports could cause havoc in international oil markets at a time of global economic pain. In recent weeks it has also resorted to increasingly aggressive military sabre-rattling.Tehran threatened last month to shut the Strait of Hormuz - outlet to the Gulf through which 40 percent of traded oil flows - and on Tuesday threatened to take unspecified action if a U.S. aircraft carrier sails through the strait.Washington, which has a carrier strike group led by the USS John C Stennis in the Arabian Sea, brushed off that threat and said its navy would continue to sail the strait.Most analysts dismiss the sabre-rattling as a bluff and say they do not expect war."There's an anticipation that it might lead to an escalation of military activity in the region, but we think this is overplayed," said Gareth Lewis-Davies, energy strategist at BNP Paribas in London.The EU diplomats said member countries had not yet agreed on how soon the embargo should take effect and were still debating other possible sanctions.France has said it wants the EU embargo and other sanctions agreed at a meeting of the bloc's foreign ministers at the end of this month. Paris also seeks a ban on transactions with the Iranian central bank, similar to what Washington has imposed.The new U.S. financial sanctions, if imposed fully, would make it all but impossible for many refineries to pay for Iranian crude. The law grants Obama the power to issue temporary waivers to prevent shocks in energy markets.A Turkish energy official said Ankara, which buys about 30 percent of its oil from Iran, was seeking a waiver from Washington for its biggest refiner, Tupras.Washington says it is discussing with its allies how to implement the measures without causing an oil supply shock. (Additional reporting by Julien Toyer in Brussels and Peg Mackey in London; Writing by Peter Graff; Editing by Jon Boyle)======================Trading oil on Iran: untangling rhetoric from reality06 Jan 2012 20:17Source: Reuters // Reuters(Fixes typo in additional reporting by credit)* Some traders see oil supply disruption fears overblown* Memories of shipping continuing in Iran-Iraq war* Global economy concern, Saudi supply pledge caps pricesBy Dmitry Zhdannikov and Simon FalushLONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - How does an oil trader play the market when Iran threatens to shut the Strait of Hormuz and strangle Middle East oil supplies?"Buy!" some would say.But "Sell!" could come from cooler heads, the grizzled veterans who can cut through the bellicose( war like) rhetoric and who remember the 1980s Gulf "tanker war" in the Iran-Iraq conflict.Iran did not block the Strait then, nor during decades of tensions with the West."There's a lot of rhetoric," said Rob Montefusco, trader at Sucden Financial. "Some people who have been around a long time are saying 'we've seen it all before', so they are using the recent price spikes as an opportunity to sell."Back in the 1980s, the United States, with its mighty Fifth Fleet stationed in the region, threatened to go to war if the strait was closed."We've seen this movie before," said Cliff Kupchan, an Iran analyst at the Eurasia Group. "Neither side wants a war. A lot of this rhetoric is overstated."Iran is OPEC's second biggest exporter, but the prospect of the loss of a chunk of supply seems to be sparking fewer and fewer doomsday predictions that oil prices will soar to $200 a barrel, very common just a few months ago.Benchmark Brent oil prices have fluctuated around $110 a barrel, despite rising fears about Iranian oil supply as a result of tensions with the West over Tehran's nuclear programme.Prices have been capped by fears of a steep downturn in euro zone economies, which could upset the recovery around the world and crush demand for crude, and by expectations that OPEC leader Saudi Arabia's will fill the supply gap as it did last year when Libya's oil was lost.Doing without Libyan production in 2011, although less than half that of Iran, with only a manageable price spike gave the oil market a taste of coping with a supply shock.The most serious fears debated at oil trading desks include the possibility of Iran mining the straits, attacking ships as it did during the Iran-Iraq war, or challenging the legality of the passage of some vessels through its territorial waters."The Iranians have raised the rhetoric stakes hugely in the last two weeks, but for them the game has changed," said Philip Wiper from oil brokerage PVM."One could even envisage the Iranians putting a few mines in the Strait with little effort, and maximum inconvenience for a few days while the U.S. navy clears them up," he added.But bracing for even the second or third worse case scenarios may not be a feasible trading position for now."Everyone loves the idea of being long oil into an Iran situation but I can't just sit on the bid hoping that something will kick off. So to take it seriously, something serious needs to happen," a veteran products trader said."Until then it's something on the sidelines. Any rallies we are seeing on the news is purely day trading, and it may reverse just as quickly as it rallies."Nor has there been much evidence of big hedge funds or speculators rushing to the options market to buy cheap out-of-the-money calls in order to profit from a price spike.A call owner has the right to buy crude at a preset strike price. Calls begin to pay off when oil rises and when rising price volatility increases the odds the option will expire in the money.CBOE's oil volatility index has eased for the past three days, trading near its lowest since early August. Open interest in June $140 strike calls jumped by by more than 7 million barrels this week, but other key contracts for both Dec 2012 and Dec 2013 were all but unchanged, suggesting no great rush to buy upside insurance.Unusually, there's been a bias toward trading "puts", which confer the right to sell oil at a predetermined price if the market falls, a bearish trade."As the Iranian news has made its way into the market over the last few weeks, I've seen a greater influx of call and put buying than I normally see at this time of year, with an emphasis on the put side," said Anthony Rosado, options broker at GA Global Markets in New York.WORST CASE SCENARIOLate December was a lesson in the ups and downs of headline trading on Iran. Oil prices jumped by around 2 percent when Iran threatened to block Hormuz but pared most gains the next day after the U.S. Fifth Fleet said it would not allow any disruption to oil flows.On Friday, oil barely moved when Iran said it would hold new naval exercises in the Strait.The U.S. Fifth Fleet keeps one or two aircraft carrier battle groups either in the Gulf or within striking distance in the Indian Ocean."If Iran prohibits the U.S. warships from transiting in their territorial waters this is not by itself a case of "casus belli" to retaliate militarily on Iran. Furthermore, the U.S. warships could still transit the strait... on the Omani side," said Olivier Jakob from Petromatrix consultancy.Traders said that a full loss of Iranian oil would no doubt trigger a major spike in oil prices as Saudi Arabia would be forced to use all its spare output capacity, a crucial safety cushion for oil markets.But the European Union and the United States appear to be taking a calculated risk approach by planning a gradual phase out of Iranian oil which might take months.The EU is close to imposing sanctions on Iranian oil but with some exceptions while the United States, which has banned it since 1979, is talking to China, Japan and South Korea to persuade them to reduce purchases from Tehran.Jakob said he believed Iran will continue the soft escalation to keep the oil prices high to increase revenues amid what looks like an inevitable loss of exports volumes."I don't see any serious threat to supply even if there is a full blown war. It will last for two weeks during which the U.S. will kick the hell out of Iran and make sure all is fine in the Strait of Hormuz," said a veteran trader with oil majors and trading houses.In the event of a big stoppage the consuming nations' International Energy Agency would very likely release emergency government stocks to tame prices, as it did in June last year when Libyan output was lost.(Additional reporting by Christopher Johnson, Claire Milhench and Peg Mackey, and Jeff Kerr in New York, editing by Richard Mably and Alden Bentley)=======================U.S. slaps sanctions on China state oil trader over Iran13 Jan 2012 03:44Source: Reuters // Reuters* U.S. takes first swipe at China state energy sector* Move comes as U.S. seeks to squeeze Tehran* Sanctions seen as signal to China oil majors* Follows trip to China this week by U.S. Treasury Secretary (Adds no comment from China, Kuo)By Andrew QuinnWASHINGTON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - The United States on Thursday imposed sanctions on China's state-run Zhuhai Zhenrong Corp, which it said was Iran's largest supplier of refined petroleum products, as it sought to impress on Beijing and Tehran its resolve to increase economic pressure over Iran's nuclear program.Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also imposed sanctions on Singapore's Kuo Oil Pte Ltd and FAL Oil Company Ltd, an independent energy trader based in the United Arab Emirates, the State Department said in a notice.The State Department said the move was part of a broadening international effort to target Iran's energy sector and persuade Tehran to rein in its nuclear ambitions."The sanctions announced today are an important step toward that goal, as they target the individual companies that help Iran evade these efforts," the statement said.The sanction bar all three companies from receiving U.S. export licenses, U.S. Export Import Bank financing or loans over $10 million from U.S. financial institutions, the department said, stressing that the sanctions apply only to the companies and not to their governments or countries.The U.S. announced the decision after China's rebuff this week of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who traveled to Beijing to press China on U.S. demands it do more to help curb Iran's oil revenues.A Zhenrong spokeswoman and China's Foreign Ministry both said they had no immediate comment.'SHOT ACROSS THE BOW'Analysts said the U.S. move was largely symbolic, given that Zhenrong was unlikely to have much U.S. business exposure.But the move will send a signal to Beijing and its state-run oil giants such as China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), China Petroleum and Chemical Corp (Sinopec Corp) and China National Offshore Oil Corp. , they said.These companies have invested billions of dollars in the U.S. energy sector, and are much more exposed to the impact of potential sanctions."It's a good shot across the bow and signals the U.S. is serious about vigorous sanctions enforcement," said Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington pressure group that favors stronger sanctions on Iran."This could be the beginning of a cascade of more sanctions on Chinese companies if China doesn't curtail its Iranian trade."Zhuhai Zhenrong - one of four dominant Chinese state oil traders - brokered the delivery of over $500 million in gasoline to Iran between July 2010 and January 2011 in contravention of U.S. sanctions law, the State Department said.While the U.S. move targeted Zhenrong for its gasoline sales, the Chinese company has a broader role in Beijing's energy dealings with Iran.It has been a major buyer of Iranian oil since at least 1995, typically selling the oil to Sinopec and PetroChina, the country's two dominant refiners.Zhenrong has been buying about 240,000 barrels per day for several years, representing about 5 percent of China's imports. Sources last week said China would cut crude imports from Iran for a second month in February.In mid-2010, Zhenrong joined Chinese state energy giants in filling a void left by Western oil companies and trading houses that had halted sales of gasoline to Iran because of toughening U.S. sanctions.Derek Scissors, an expert in the Chinese economy at the Heritage Foundation think tank, said the action against Zhenrong would send a message to other Chinese state oil majors."We don't want to be taking action against Sinopec, CNPC and CNOOC. They are huge, and politically powerful," he said."But Zhenrong is close enough to them, and won't really do that much harm beyond sending the signal."TARGETING COMPANIESThe U.S. announcement followed Western moves to tighten the economic noose on Tehran through unilateral sanctions.President Barack Obama has signed a U.S. law imposing sanctions on financial institutions that deal with Iran's central bank, its main clearinghouse for oil exports, while the European Union is expected soon to agree to a new ban on Iranian oil imports.Washington has sought to impress on friends and foes that it means business, sending U.S. officials around the world to warn of the dangers of dealing with Iran.A senior Obama administration official stressed that the purpose of sanctions was to draw Iran back to the negotiating table to discuss curbing its nuclear ambitions, the other half of the 'two-track' U.S. policy of pressure and engagement."The theory of the case here is that these two tracks will ultimately converge and Iran will make a decision that it is important to come to the table to try to remove some of these sanctions, to improve their economy," the official told reporters on condition of anonymity.The other two companies listed by the State Department, both well-known names in the Asian oil trading world, are smaller, private trading firms that typically specialize in shipping bunker fuel or heavy residual products but, like Zhenrong, had also begun doing deals to sell gasoline to Iran.The State Department said Kuo Oil had provided over $25 million in refined petroleum to Iran between late 2010 and early 2011, while FAL provided over $70 million in refined petroleum to Iran over multiple shipments in late 2010.Kuo had no immediate comment, a senior official said.In all cases, individual deliveries were worth significantly more than the $1 million threshold under U.S. law and the total value of the transactions was well above the $5 million threshold for sanctionable activities within a 12-month period, the State Department said. (Additional reporting by Timothy Gardner, Jim Bai and Chris Buckley in Beijing and Randy Fabi in Singapore; Editing by Peter Cooney and Sandra Maler)=====================Japan policy on reducing Iran oil in doubt13 Jan 2012 10:38Source: Reuters // Reuters* PM Noda distances himself from cutting Iran oil imports* Some in Japan worry Iran sanctions will push up oil prices* French formin: sanctions won't necessarily boost prices (Recasts)By Stanley WhiteTOKYO, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Japan's policy on Iranian oil was left in doubt on Friday after the prime minister distanced himself from the finance minister's pledge to reduce oil imports in support of a U.S. push to prevent Iran from making nuclear weapons.Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said the pledge, made by Finance Minister Jun Azumi only a day before in a joint press conference with U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, was Azumi's "personal opinion" and that the government wants to discuss the matter with the business community.The foreign minister and the government's top spokesman also made comments suggesting Japan was not yet committed to reducing Iranian oil imports, which could potentially damage the credibility of its foreign policy and its dealings with the United States, its most important ally."The outlook shared by Finance Minister Azumi, I believe, was a personal one," Noda said in a press conference."Going forward, the government will deal with this issue by conducting working-level discussions."U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner travelled to China and Japan this week, seeking cooperation on stricter sanctions as the U.S. tries to choke off oil revenue to Iran, an OPEC member and the world's fifth-largest crude exporter.Iran denies Western suspicions that its nuclear programme has military goals, saying it is for purely peaceful purposes. Washington has rejected Iran's assertion and has pressed ahead with new sanctions.Other countries, including major Iran oil buyers such as South Korea and India, are also scrambling to react to the new sanctions law as countries fear that conduits for Iranian oil payments could snap under the U.S. pressure.Buying less Iranian oil is sensitive for Japan because its reliance on energy imports has jumped after the Fukushima nuclear disaster last year.But unless it does so, it will not win an exemption for Japanese banks from sanctions that would freeze financial institutions out of U.S. markets for facilitating trade in Iranian crude.On Thursday, a few hours after Azumi pledged to take "concrete" steps to lower oil imports, Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura said importing less Iranian oil was only one of many opinions on how to deal with the matter.Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba also said on Friday the government hasn't reached a decision, Kyodo News said.Iranian crude makes up 10 percent of Japan's overall oil imports and some in Japan are concerned the new sanctions could drive up oil prices, dealing a blow to its economy, which is recovering from last year's earthquake and nuclear power disaster.Separately, Gemba said in a joint news conference with French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe that sanctions would be ineffective if they end up boosting oil prices, a negative development for the global economy, but a boon for oil producing Iran."The higher oil prices go, the better it gets for Iran ... We need to take steps in a careful, smart way," he said.Juppe, however, said he did not fully share Gemba's concerns, saying that when there was a similar situation with Libya, there was not much of an increase in oil prices and that there were other countries to turn to for oil.Iran faces the prospects of cutbacks in oil sales to China, Japan and India, its top three buyers who together take more than 40 percent of its crude exports. The European Union, a major buyer, has committed to banning imports of Iranian oil.President Barack Obama authorised a law on December 31 imposing sanctions on financial institutions that deal with Iran's central bank, the country's main clearing house for oil payments.The United States can waive some institutions if it deems it necessary for energy market stability or if the institutions' home country significantly reduces trade with Iran. (Additional reporting by Kiyoshi Takenaka and Shinichi Saoshiro; Editing by Edwina Gibbs and Neil Fullick)===============China's Wen presses Saudi Arabia for oil accessRELATED QUOTES^DJI 12,422.06 -48.96^GSPC 1,289.09 -6.41^IXIC 2,710.67 -14.03By Chris Buckley – Sat Jan 14, 10:40 pm ETBEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao pressed Saudi Arabia to open its huge oil and gas resources to expanded Chinese investment, media reports said on Sunday against a backdrop of growing tension over Iran and worries over its crude exports to the Asian power.The Saudi kingdom is China's biggest source of imported oil, and securing energy security was high on Wen's agenda in Riyadh, in part reflecting concerns about how nuclear tensions and sanctions could unsettle ties with Iran."China and Saudi Arabia are both in important stages of development, and there are broad prospects for enhancing cooperation," Wen on Saturday told Prince Nayef, who is a senior member of the Saudi government, according to Xinhua."Both sides must strive together to expand trade and cooperation, upstream and downstream, in crude oil and natural gas," said Wen, referring to access to extracting oil and gas and then processing the them.The Xinhua report made no mention of any discussion of Iran, whose oil exports to China face pressure from new U.S. sanctions. The U.S. sanctions threat is a particular worry for China, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil. Only Saudi Arabia and Angola sell it more crude."Beijing is concerned with the potential response to Iranian bellicose statements and with the spike in oil prices that would ensue from greater turmoil in Syria and Iran," Michal Meidan, an analyst in London with the Eurasia Group who studies Chinese energy investment and policy, said in an emailed research note.Late on Saturday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry denounced U.S. punishment of China's state-run Zhuhai Zhenrong Corp.On Thursday, the Obama administration invoked U.S. law to sanction Zhuhai Zhenrong Corp, which it said was Iran's largest supplier of refined petroleum products."Imposing sanctions on a Chinese company based on a domestic (U.S.) law is totally unreasonable, and does not conform to the spirit or content of U.N. Security Council resolutions about the Iran nuclear issue," the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said in a statement issued on the ministry's website (www.mfa.gov.cn)."China expresses its strong dissatisfaction and adamant opposition," said Liu.The Obama administration said its sanctions against the Chinese company and two other firms are part of a broadening effort to target Iran's energy sector and press Tehran to curb in its nuclear ambitions, which Western governments say appear aimed at developing the means to make atomic weapons.Iran says its nuclear activities are legitimate and entirely for peaceful ends.China cut oil imports from Iran in January and February in a commercial dispute over contract terms, and has been looking for alternative supplies.Yet China is unlikely to dramatically boost crude imports from Saudi Arabia, even with the Iranian worries, said Meidan, the analyst with the Eurasia Group."In the likely event that Iran will offer discounted oil, Chinese traders will buy more Iranian barrels and could consequently reduce their Saudi imports," she said."Wen will therefore need to convey both commercial and diplomatic realities to Saudi Arabia, China's number one source of crude imports, and ensure that bilateral ties remain on steady footing."MORE TRADE TOO, PLEASEWen also said his government wants "strong and reputable" Chinese companies to invest in Saudi Arabia's ports, railways and infrastructure, the Chinese Xinhua news agency reported.China and Saudi Arabia should keep deepening cooperation "in the face of changeable and complicated regional and international trends," he said, according to Xinhua.Crown Prince Nayef is King Abdullah's half brother and became heir to the throne in October. The Xinhua report paraphrased the prince as saying that Saudi Arabia is willing to expand cooperation in energy and infrastructure.China is already Saudi Arabia's biggest customer and the kingdom is keen to diversify its economic ties.On Saturday, the state-run Saudi oil giant Aramco and Chinese companies finalized an initial agreement signed last year to develop a 400,000 barrel per day (bpd) refinery in Yanbu, on the kingdom's Red Sea coast.Aramco will hold a 62.5 percent stake in the joint venture formed to develop Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (YASREF), and Sinopec will own the rest.In the first 11 months of 2011, top supplier Saudi Arabia shipped 45.5 million tons of crude to China, a rise of 12.9 percent over the same period in 2010, according to Chinese customs data. Angola and Iran were China's second and third biggest suppliers.Wen is also scheduled to visit the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.(Reporting by Chris Buckley, Editing by Jonathan Thatcher)====================Obama vows to work with Israel to prevent Iran from becoming nuclear power2012-02-06 07:22:03 [ Big Normal Small ] 　CommentWASHINGTON, Feb. 5 (Xinhua) -- U.S. President Barack Obama said on Sunday that the United States will work with Israel to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power, signalling that a diplomatic resolution to the current crisis is still possible.In an interview with the NBC television from the White House, Obama said both the United States and Israel, which is "rightly" concerned about Iran's nuclear program, believe that "Iran has to stand down" on the current standoff.When asked if Israel is determined to attack Iran, Obama said he didn't think that Israel has made such a decision, adding that the United States and Israel will work "in lockstep" on dealing with the Iranian nuclear issue. "I will say that we have closer military and intelligence consultation between our two countries than we've ever had," he said.The president emphasized his goal in resolving the nuclear standoff diplomatically, though repeating that he was not taking any options off the table."We're going to do everything we can to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and creating an arms race -- a nuclear arms race -- in a volatile region," Obama said.When asked about the possibility of Iran launching a retaliatory attack on the U.S. soil, Obama said he didn't see "any evidence that they have those intentions or capabilities right now."Obama made the remarks after media reports revealed Thursday Defense Secretary Leon Panetta's suspicion on Israel's attack toward Iran this spring.Panetta believed there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June before Iran enters a "zone of immunity" to commence building a nuclear bomb, according to an article written by the Washington Post columnist David Ignatius.The article said Obama and Panetta had cautioned the Israelis that Washington opposes an attack, citing that it would derail an increasingly successful international economic sanctions program and other non-military efforts to stop Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold.While believing that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not made a final decision on attacking Iran, senior U.S. officials are still worried about "the guns of spring -- and the unintended consequences," the article added.The U.S.-led West and Iran have been in a standoff over the latter's nuclear program since last November, when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released a report that Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapons capacity. Iran has strongly dismissed the claims, stressing its nuclear program is solely for peaceful use of nuclear energy despite the West's suspicion that it is an attempt to acquire nuclear weapons.The standoff escalated in December 2011, when Iran held large-scale military exercises in the Gulf and threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic route in transferring one-fifth of oil traded worldwide, to protest the Western sanctions over its nuclear program.Washington warned Tehran against crossing the red lines to block Strait of Hormuz and to acquire a nuclear weapon, which will provoke dire consequences including a military strike. Washington has also been rallying its allies in imposing crippling sanctions on Iran, including a ban on its export of crude oil and financial transactions with Iran by foreign countries.On Dec. 31, Obama signed a bill on imposing new sanctions on Iran, targeting foreign financial institutions that do business with Iran's central bank, the main conduit for its oil revenues. In late January, the European Union (EU) imposed further sanctions against Iran's oil exports as well as its central bank, following the U.S. steps.U.S. Central Intelligence Agency director David Petraeus, who testified at a Jan. 31 Senate hearing, said the new sanctions on Iran "have been biting much, much more in recent weeks," though it remained to be seen whether they would force Iran to change its course on its nuclear program.=========================

Iran attack decision nears, Israeli elite locks down
Thu, May 17 12:39 PM EDT
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By Michael Stott

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - A private door opens from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office in central Jerusalem directly into a long, modestly furnished, half-paneled room decorated with modern paintings by Israeli artists and a copy of Israel's 1948 declaration of independence. It contains little more than a long wooden table, brown leather chairs and a single old-fashioned white projector screen.

This inner sanctum at the end of a corridor between Netanyahu's private room and the office of his top military adviser, is where one of the decade's most momentous military decisions could soon be taken: to launch an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear program.

Time for that decision is fast running out and the mood in Jerusalem is hardening.

Iran continues to enrich uranium in defiance of international pressure, saying it needs the fuel for its civilian nuclear program. The West is convinced that Tehran's real objective is to build an atomic bomb - something which the Jewish state will never accept because its leaders consider a nuclear armed-Iran a threat to its very existence.

Adding to the international pressure, U.S. ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro said this week American military plans to strike Iran were "ready" and the option was "fully available".

The central role Iran plays in Netanyahu's deliberations is reflected in the huge map of the Middle East hanging by the door of his office. Israel lies on one edge, with Iran taking pride of place in the centre.

Experts say that within a few months, much of Iran's nuclear program will have been moved deep underground beneath the Fordow mountain, making a successful military strike much more difficult.

LOCKDOWN

As the deadline for a decision draws nearer, the public pronouncements of Israel's top officials and military have changed. After hawkish warnings about a possible strike earlier this year, their language of late has been more guarded and clues to their intentions more difficult to discern.

"The top of the government has gone into lockdown," one official said. "Nobody is saying anything publicly. That in itself tells you a lot about where things stand."

Last week Netanyahu pulled off a spectacular political surprise, creating a coalition of national unity and delaying elections which everyone believed were inevitable. The maneuver also led to speculation that the Israeli leader wanted a broad, strong government to lead a military campaign.

The inclusion of the Iranian-born former Israeli chief of staff and veteran soldier, Gen. Shaul Mofaz, in the coalition, fuelled that speculation - even though both Mofaz and Netanyahu deny that Iran was mentioned in the coalition negotiations.

"I think they have made a decision to attack," said one senior Israeli figure with close ties to the leadership. "It is going to happen. The window of opportunity is before the U.S. presidential election in November. This way they will bounce the Americans into supporting them."

Those close to Netanyahu are more cautious, saying no assumptions should be made about an attack on Iran - an attack with such potentially devastating consequences across the volatile Middle East that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas even went so far as to predict in an interview with Reuters last week that it would be "the end of the world".

Israelis particularly fear retaliation from Iran's proxy militias - the Hezbollah guerrillas in southern Lebanon and the Hamas fighters in the Gaza Strip. Both are believed to possess large arsenals of rockets which could hit major Israeli towns and cities.

Hezbollah's deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem told Reuters in February that an Israeli attack on Iran would set the whole Middle East ablaze "with no limit to the fires". "Gone are the days when Israel decides to strike, and the people are silent," he said.

The Israeli Prime Minister and his key allies repeat for public consumption the mantra that economic sanctions against Iran must be given time to work and that now is not the time to speak about military options.

Top officials explain the new coalition on purely domestic grounds, saying it was needed to tackle the thorny and divisive issue of pressing Orthodox Jews into military service - in other words, that its formation has much more to do with the agenda inside Israel than abroad.

BURIED NUCLEAR STATES

Diplomats are divided. "I think the Iran thing is a red herring," said one senior Western envoy. "This is 98 percent about domestic politics". Others are less convinced.

Mofaz himself refuses to speak about military action against Iran, even in the theoretical.

A military veteran with almost 40 years' operational experience, whose office in the Israeli parliament displays a poster of Israeli warplanes flying low over the Auschwitz concentration camp, he scoffs at the idea that his Iranian descent gives him special influence on an Iran attack decision. He derides the idea any serious official in the know would talk to visiting journalists about such a sensitive military subject.

But behind the carefully evasive language of top officials, basic facts are clear. Time is running out. Iran's nuclear program - regarded by Netanyahu as an existential threat to the state of Israel - will soon be buried deep enough underground to render an Israeli attack impossible. The Jewish state's options are narrowing.

"I think they've gone into lockdown mode now," the senior Western diplomat said. "Whatever happens next, whatever they decide, we will not find out until it happens."

There are indeed those who see in Israeli posturing over Iran only bluff intended to press world powers into harsher sanctions and avoid war. Some military experts openly doubt how much damage Israel could inflict. The risk of a fiasco is big.

Perhaps the strongest clue as to Israel's real intentions is to be found in Netanyahu's private office, behind his desk. Officials say the Israeli premier was strongly influenced by his father, who died last month at the age of 102.

Benzion Netanyahu was a distinguished scholar of Jewish history and his strong sense of the past lives on in Benjamin, who laments to visitors that "most people's sense of history goes back to breakfast time".

On a shelf behind Netanyahu's desk, along with pictures of his family, is a photograph of Winston Churchill. Netanyahu admires the British wartime premier because he saw the true dangers posed by Nazi Germany to the world at a time when many other politicians argued for appeasing Hitler.

The parallels with modern-day Iran are obvious and Netanyahu is explicit about the dangers he believes are posed by militant Islam: as he puts it, its convulsive power, its cult of death and its ideological zeal.

But Churchill, although eloquent on the dangers posed by the rise of Nazi Germany during the 1930s, ultimately failed to prevent Hitler's ascent to power, the world war he unleashed or the Holocaust in which six million Jews were murdered.

Netanyahu, those who know him say, is determined to avoid going down in history as the man who shirked his opportunity to stop Iran going nuclear. (Additional reporting by Samia Nakhoul and Crispian Balmer; editing by Ralph Boulton)

(Created by Michael Stott)

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China's crude imports from Iran rise 53.2 percent in April
A Chinese oil tanker (file photo)

Mon May 21, 2012 9:58AM GMT
China's oil imports from Iran have increased by 53.2 percent in April to 388,034 barrels per day (bpd) from 253,302 bpd a month earlier, Chinese customs data shows.


The jump in China's crude imports came after Tehran and Beijing "resolved disputes over annual contracts," Reuters reported.

The Monday data also indicated that China's oil imports from Iran stood at 355,989 bpd in January-April.

Last week, data released by Italy's oil refining industry body Unione Petrolifera (UP) showed that the country's oil imports from Iran increased by 6 percent in March to 425,200 tons, compared with the 401,600 tons in February.

The growth in Italy's crude imports from Iran came despite the oil embargo imposed by the European Union on the Islamic Republic.

On January 23, the European Union approved new sanctions on Iran's oil and financial sectors. The sanctions are meant to prevent EU member states from buying Iranian crude or doing business with its central bank. The sanctions will come into force as of July 1.

The US and the EU have imposed new financial sanctions as well as oil embargoes against Iran since the beginning of 2012, claiming that the country's nuclear energy program includes a military component.

Tehran refutes such allegations, noting that frequent inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency have never found any diversion in Iran's nuclear energy program toward military purposes.

Iran's Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance Shamseddin Hosseini has warned that if EU sanctions against the Islamic Republic take effect, oil prices will soar to as high as USD 160 per barrel.

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