And what if Excal never gets to court?: Goodbye Shahristani, Hello Kurdistan

Author bonobo77
Date posted today 09:36
Subject Re: BUY GKP View parent message
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 23 times.
Message

Over 90% of such claims don't make it.
The odds are in favour of an out of court settlement.
That gap at 332p could be swiftly filled once the monkey is off our backs.
So what'll it be ... sell at 243p resistance in the hope of it dropping back to £2 and risk being out when Excalibur disappears? 40p downside versus 90p upside ... and a pure gamble to boot.

Much easier to simply look beyond end of year when we know Excal will be gone - one way or other.
What value to you attach to your shares in that CERTAIN event?
More than 243p?
Then maybe best to just hold and not try and get too cute at the eleventh hour of this investment.
IMHO.
=============

10:17
Re: Real Values > Cb

scaramouche
22UP
Hi Coachburdy,

For me, you are one of those rare people who is always capable of finding humour in adversity, and often manages to say in very few words what so many people here are thinking.

Your 'Three Humps diary' exhibited both of these characteristics in abundance, and deservedly acquired almost legendary status. And this post from the Coach's archive in January 2010 entitled 'spleen vent' captured quite brilliantly both the frustration the long-termers were feeling, and the humour in what has at times been one of the most turbulent investment rides of all time.

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AGKP.L&display=discussion&threshold=0&action=detail&id=5808056

I am sure Bracken too would have been very impressed by it!

Personally, I very much hope you will be back soon to entertain us with your lovely sense of humour, and offer us all a few wise words... after a short break from what has undoubtedly been an emotional and rather sad week for you.

Without you, the GKP community will not be the same!

Kindest regards,
scaramouche
====


Coachburdy
22UP
Sometimes you can find yourself in a roomful of people where although the majority are perfectly reasonable and amenable, the actions and attitudes of a poisonous minority, make staying untenable. My contibrutions to this board have never been of much 'technical' value
but I hope my occasional attempts at humour or balanced opinion have not been hurtful or offensive.Another poster moves on.
Goodbye
Cb
====

Author scaramouche View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted Tuesday 12:05
Subject Balance and perception...
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 95 times.
Message
Good morning everyone,

Like many on here, I feel very privileged to be able to read some fascinating contributions to the Excalibur debate from both Dennis and Sicilian_Kan. It is very helpful to hear both sides of the argument from two experienced and obviously very knowledgeable lawyers, and it makes me feel almost as though I am in the courtroom... witnessing both prosecution and defence lawyers in action. My sincere thanks go out to both of them.

But, as Kiama123 has highlighted, we need to be conscious that, ultimately, we are all on the same side, and presumably hoping that Excalibur are exposed for being the ‘chancers’ that most of us have long perceived them to be. So, I feel rather uneasy about any negative inferences concerning the reliability or accuracy of some of their comments.

I see them as both being highly skilled in identifying the possible holes in each others’ arguments, and being able to argue their case logically and eloquently, but hopefully not on completely different sides of the fence.

However, as a GKP shareholder, I do have certain concerns arising from the latest ‘debate’.Personally, I do not feel that we should ever lose sight of the fact that Excalibur:

1. DID choose to bring a case against GKP long after the oil discovery had been announced.
2. DID bring about a 30% decline in the SP in a matter of minutes on 29 December 2010, causing many who were perhaps unwisely over-leveraged at the time sizeable and very REAL losses.
3. DID NOT contribute a single penny towards the costs that GKP has paid, while Shaikan has been in the process of evaluation.
4. WAS little more than a two-bit outfit with a turnover of about $200,000 per annum , yet IS somehow laying claim not only to a tiny part of the Shaikan PSC... but to 30% of ALL of GKP’s assets.
5. HAS without question held back GKP’s SP significantly for over 20 months, and caused all shareholders considerable consternation, uncertainty and financial loss throughout as a direct result of the case.
6. HAS meant that the 91 million shares issued in the placing in September 2011 could only attain a price of 140p per share, thereby increasing the dilutory effect on shareholders.
7. HAS enabled the GKP share price to be ‘played’ excessively by hedge funds throughout the period that this uncertainty remains, and MAY have also enabled one or more ‘backers’ to benefit from ‘insider knowledge’ regarding the precise state of play of their action in the course of also trading GKP shares.
8. MIGHT have had a detrimental effect on both the timing of a possible takeover and the T/O price itself.

The list goes on and on, and in every respect as far as I can see, Excalibur has been very damaging to all of us as shareholders. I don’t believe we should be giving them credit where credit is not due, or effectively arguing the case for them!

While it is sometimes argued that the effect of the Excalibur claim has been to allow GKP to remain independent for longer, and thereby prove up more of its assets, my feeling is that this is probably more a by-product of the seemingly unending political impasse in Iraq.

In any event, it is at best nothing more than an unexpected consequence of the court case, and Excalibur remains very clearly an unpleasant irritant that GKP will do well to dispense with at the first available opportunity. IMHO, every effort should be made by GKP's lawyers to ensure they are not be granted any form of settlement that involves the issuing of yet further shares. And that is very much the conclusion that I have drawn from Dennis's musings.

So, going back to the debate between our legal friends, I welcome the factual attention Sicilian_kan has given to many of the possible legal arguments, but there are 2 comments he made that did cause me some degree of concern:

A. “Any settlement of 5% or less in shares would not unduly concern me”.

On the contrary this would cause me very great concern! Under this scenario we could be talking up to 50 million shares, valued at over £100 million today, and perhaps ultimately £500 million or more to Wempen & Co! And for what, exactly?

Incidentally, one thing that has been puzzling me for some time is that “should not the injured party be put back into the position they would have been at the time the PSC was signed, if indeed their claim was valid?”

In November 2007, when GKP signed the Shaikan PSC, there were around 280 million shares in issue and the company was valued at about £100 million, so surely the value of the company now, so long after Excalibur SHOULD surely have made their claim for redress, is immaterial. Perhaps one of our legal friends could address this point.

B. “I do not think that TK and the KRG (if giving evidence) will want to be cross-examined in public / opening up certain matters in a public forum”.

While I agree that no-one would actively seek to be put under the spotlight in a court-room, if it was necessary to enable the judge to return the correct verdict I do not see why TK would necessarily be overly concerned.

To suggest otherwise might be deemed somewhat "presumptive" and tend to feed further unnecessary speculation!

Finally, I would like to repeat my earlier comment that I appreciate very much the contributions from ALL of our learned legal friends, and the balance that they often help to provide. But I do sometimes think that even they might sometimes be influenced by popular opinion and have a tendency to apply their own ‘personal’ views when discussing investments such as this one.

It is an investment that is very emotive for many, and I am sure that Elikkos, Sicilian_Kan and Dennis too, are liable to be influenced not only by a careful study of the facts but their own personal circumstances and perceptions. It is very important that we are all fully aware of this.

AIMHO and please DYOR.
GLA, scaramouche

=====

UPDATE 2-ONGC buys Hess stake in Azeri field for $1 bln
Fri, Sep 07 17:10 PM EDT

NEW YORK, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Hess Corp agreed to sell its 2.72 percent stake in the large Azeri, Chirag and Guneshli(ACG) group of oil fields in Azerbaijan as well as its 2.36 percent stake in an associated pipeline to India's ONGC for $1 billion.

Hess said that ONGC's foreign investment arm ONGC Videsh will buy the assets in a deal it expects to close in the first quarter of 2013. It is subject to Indian and other regulatory approvals.

Hess said the sale was part of an asset sale program under which it is trimming mature assets, as well as stakes in projects in which it only holds a small working interest. It said it has announce nearly $2 billion in sales this year.

The BP-operated ACG oilfields are in the Caspian Sea around 100 kilometers east of Baku.

ACG accounts for the lion's share of Azeri production and is the main source of crude for a pipeline which runs via Georgia to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan in Turkey.

In August, The BP-led Azerbaijan International Operating Company (AIOC) reported that output at the oilfields over the first six months of 2012 declined to levels not seen since 2007, producing 16.8 million tonnes or 682,154 barrels per day (bpd) in January-June compared to 19.0 million tonnes a year earlier.

Local officials attributed the output fall at the project, which has total reserves of over 6.5 billion barrels, to repair work on some drilling platforms and refineries.

The country expects its oil output to rise in 2013 thanks to the start of the next stage in ACG's development.

Rothschild advised ONGC Videsh on the sale.

===

30-08-12
Re: Mark Hanson and his 15k peanuts pa

GKP.L
59UP
Hi Broadford Bay,

Mark Hanson's interest in GKP is not confined to the $15k salary he earned in the very short period for which he had been a non executive director of GKP in 2011.

From the annual report on page 38
"On 21 March 2012, an option to acquire 250,000 common shares in the capital of the Company at a price of 250 pence per common share was granted under Gulf Keystone’s Share Option Plan to Mark Hanson, who joined the Company as a Non-Executive Director in November 2011. Subject to certain performance criteria having been met prior to exercise, these options will vest after a three year period and can be exercised at any time until expiry on 25 November 2021."

So, if GKP was to be sold for even £10 per share in the relatively near future, he still stands to make £1.75 million profit on those options. Not bad for what might only be a year or so of work!

Much the same is true of Lord Guthrie who earned just over $30K in 2011.

The best thing about this scenario though is that Hanson's & Guthrie's interests are very much aligned with ours, as otherwise their earnings would indeed be, as you put it, "peanuts".

AIMHO and please DYOR.

GLA, scaramouche
===

Author scaramouche View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted 2012-08-02 11:13
Subject Goodbye Shahristani, Hello Kurdistan...
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 97 times.
Message
When Iraq auctioned off Licences in 10 major DISCOVERED oil fields, via 2 separate bidding rounds during 2009, 15 different foreign companies were awarded shares in those licences:

BP, Shell, EXXON, Occidental, Petronas, CNPC, Lukoil, Gazprom, TOTAL, ENI, STATOIL, TPAO, Sonangol, Japex, and KOGAS.

We now know that THREE of the biggest of those companies EXXON, GAZPROM NEFT, and TOTAL have defied Baghdad by taking up Kurdish contracts, while STATOIL have moved out of Southern Iraq completely.

This is how the Iraqi/Kurdish landscape has changed.....

1. EXXON.
The world’s largest energy company secured a 60% Net working interest in West Qurna-1 in November 2009, an oil field with an estimated 9 Billion barrels of reserves. They are contracted to receive $1.90 per barrel on their share of production, which has a target of 2.25 million bpd by 2017.

However, Exxon chose to defy Baghdad by signing contracts for 6 new Exploration licences in Kurdistan on 18 October 2011, subsequently placing them on Shahristani’s blacklist for any possible future contracts in Iraq.

In April 2012, Exxon were rumoured to be abandoning their contract at West Qurna-1 in favour of pursuing their interests in Kurdistan.
http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2012/04/05/exxon-mobil-rumoured-to-abandon-west-qurna/
And, on 25 June 2012, they were said to be in talks to sell part of their stake in West Qurna -1 to Russia’s ROSNEFT.

*** Exxon have yet to purchase any EXISTING Kurdish contracts, but must be No.1 contenders for SHAIKAN, in my opinion ***

2. GAZPROM NEFT
The world’s 7th largest energy company secured a 30% net working interest in Badra in December 2009, an oil field with an estimated 2 billion barrels of reserves. They are contracted to receive $5.50 per barrel on their share of production, which is targeted at 170,000 bpd by 2017.

On 1 August 2012, the Russian company GAZPROM NEFT signed up with the KRG by taking up significant shares in the Shakal and Garmian blocks. http://www.stockhouse.com/News/CanadianReleasesDetail.aspx?n=8578010

*** There has been no response as yet from Baghdad but, with Russia now very heavily committed in the South of Iraq, Maliki and Shahristani will need to choose their words very carefully IMO***

3. TOTAL
The world’s 8th largest energy company secured an 18.75% net working interest in Halfaya in December 2009, an oil field with an estimated 4.1 billion barrels of reserves. They are contracted to receive $1.40 per barrel on their share of production, which has a target of 535,000 bpd by 2017.

On 31 July 2012, Reuters confirmed that TOTAL had taken up Kurdish contracts by purchasing Marathon’s stakes in the Harir and Safen blocks.

Baghdad’s response has been to threaten to put them on Shahristani’s blacklist. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/07/31/uk-total-iraq-baghdad-idUKBRE86U10Y20120731

4. STATOIL
The world’s 14th largest energy company secured an 11.25% net working interest in West Qurna-2 in December 2009, with its estimated 12.9 billion barrels of reserves. They were contracted to receive $1.15 per barrel on their share of production, which has a target of 1.8 million bpd by 2017.

In March 2012 STATOIL reached agreement with Russia’s LUKOIL, already the operator, to sell their stake to them. This gave LUKOIL a 75% net working interest.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/07/lukoil-statoil-iraq-idUSL5E8E717A20120307

So far, STATOIL have not made any move into Kurdistan.

However, CHEVRON’s purchase of Reliance Industries’ 80% share of the Sarta and Rovi blocks on 19 July 2012, brought this comment in the Reuters news report on 24 July, when Chevron too were officially ‘black-listed’...

“As well as France's Total, Norway's STATOIL is also looking closely at KRG exploration blocks, industry sources have said. A move into the north by Total could mean the tipping point has been reached.”
http://xfinity.comcast.net/articles/finance/20120724/BUSINESS-US-IRAQ-CHEVRON/

So, for at least FOUR of those original 15 companies to sign contracts with the ICG, it seems less than 3 years later to be a case of .... Goodbye Shahristani, Hello Kurdistan!.

AIMHO and please DYOR
GLA, scaramouche
=========== ================== bonobo77 View Profile Add to favourites Ignore Date posted Wednesday 10:28 Subject Re: Adnan Samarrai View parent message Votes for this Posting Voted 77 times. Message ‘KRG’s dreams of joining the ranks of major producers rest largely on plans by UK-listed Gulf Keystone Petroleum to tackle its giant Shaikan discovery, which will be the growth engine of the region’s production expansion. Shaikan is destined to transform Kurdish upstream fortunes. ‘Shaikan is quickly becoming another Kirkuk’ (Todd Kozel)’ “We have a phased development plan and need to get to plateau in three to five years,” says Adnan Samarrai (pictured), Gulf Keystone’s Kurdistan regional manager. “We need more than 40 wells to reach plateau, and there is some idea we could go up to 400. Industry experts say France’s Total has both the expertise and the required technology that can benefit Gulf Keystone. However, Samarrai suggests that Chevron may be more interested in farming into Shaikan.’ http://www.upstreamonline.com/hardcopy/news/article292194.ece The above is from December. Today, are we to believe that Adnan’s job is done? That he feels no need to oversee a ‘phased development plan of 3-5 years’? Why might that be? Especially as Shaikan’s development is so critical to his beloved Kurdistan’s hopes of ‘joining the ranks of the major producers’? Could it be that he knows the asset’s development will soon be in safe and proven hands? And he can now best assist a new operator by positioning himself within the Ministry for Natural Resources? Indeed, if you were the KRG with everything riding on this asset, you’d want somebody in your Ministry who knows Shaikan inside out. Bring Adnan onside and let him be the lynchpin in the relationship between the government and Shaikan’s operator(s). In fact, I believe that Adnan is fully intent on overseeing the development of ‘the next Kirkuk’ – his father discovered Kirkuk, after all – and he now knows he can best do so from within the KRG, assuming GKP will soon be no more. Has retired and gone to the KRG Thank you for you help Adnan ============= Thu 22:10 Greater Understanding of Greater Shaikan broadford bay For those of you who attach enough importance to your investments and who really attempt to understand a bit more about the area in which our company is drilling, and the implications of our neighbour's news (see Atrush-2, see Simrit-1, see Harir Mt) on our own crown jewel, can I recommend a careful re-read of the Dynamic Global Investors "Overview of the Geology of Kurdistan" published Oct 27th, 2011? http://www.dynamicga.com/images/stories/PDFs/geoofkurdistan.pdf Even better, open up some of BBBS's postings regarding "interconnectivity" and try to follow his reasoning while referring back to the above. Much better than trying to decypher the "payments imminent" news from Baghdad, IMO. === Thu 23:18 Corporate Action re Move to FTSE FiFiGiGi Just got in to find this in my Selftrade Message Box : CORPORATE ACTION The following corporate action has taken place on a security that you hold within the Selftrade pooled nominee account. Terms: MOVE TO MAIN MARKET OF LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE The Company has announced that it remains committed to undertaking the move from AIM to the premium segment of the Official List of the London Stock Exchange. It is intended that the move from AIM will take place during 2013, subject to meeting the eligibility criteria. Further information may follow in due course. barry finecut Yep just tried and got this The following errors occurred: 1) It is not possible to place a limit or stop order on this security because a corporate action is pending on 13/09/2012. You have requested an expiry date of 12/12/2012 but this must be more than 3 business days before the corporate action date. Victor384 loloCoch on LSE: "I have just tried to put a purchase order on GKP for tomorrow. Lloyds would not allow the order as a corporate action is due today. Can anyone tell me what this is about? " === =============================================== http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/142097/istanbul-hosts-iraq-meet-on-eve-of-crucial-oil-deal-.html Monday, 17 September 2012 Iraqi energy officials are meeting up starting from today with their Turkish counterparts, only days after a milestone fuel accord between Baghdad and the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government in the north Senior Turkish and Iraqi officials are attending the “Iraq Future Energy 2012” meeting in Istanbul only days after a landmark deal between the central government in Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in the north. The KRG had confirmed on Sept. 14 a deal aimed at resolving an oil standoff with Baghdad, whereby the region will export 200,000 barrels of oil per day, and receive an “advance” of about $833 million. “We are proud that Iraq Future Energy returns to Istanbul for a third year to provide a forum for crucial discussions around the Iraqi energy industry,” Murat Mercan, deputy minister of energy for Turkey, wrote on the official website of the event, which will last until Sept. 20. “We welcome all attendees to the beautiful city of Istanbul and I look forward to meeting you at the event.” Ýbrahim Bahr Alolom, former minister at the Ministry of Oil for Iraq, said, “The entire Iraqi energy industry is getting ready for big things. Production is expected to hit 3.4 million barrels a day this year and as more fields come on stream, this figure can only increase, and this will be of enormous benefit for every single Iraqi.” Iraq has announced its goal of reaching a target production capacity of almost 12 million barrels per day by 2017. Mercan, Alolom, and Amer Rajab Salih, head of the Regulatory Department at Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity, are among the speakers at the Istanbul event, which also includes state and private sector representatives. The KRG had halted its oil exports via the federal government on April 1 over $1.5 billion it said is owed to foreign oil companies working in the region that Baghdad has allegedly withheld, but then resumed them again on Aug. 7, in what was billed as a confidence-building measure. A KRG official then said on Sept. 1 that the region would extend exports until the 15th. Crucial deal for Iraq, Turkey The deal is also crucial for Ankara as Iraq remains a leading oil and gas supplier for Turkey. Genel Energy, an Ankara-based oil firm trading on the London Stock Exchange, is among the oil searchers in northern Iraq. Last week’s deal was reached at a meeting chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Roz Nuri Shaways and attended by Iraqi and KRG officials, a statement on the website of the KRG said. Under the deal, which is to be signed this week, the KRG will export 140,000 barrels of oil per day for the rest of September, then 200,000 barrels per day for the remainder of the year, Agence France-Presse reported. The KRG will receive an “advance” of 1 trillion Iraqi dinars (about $833 million) from the federal government, and will determine the amount of oil it will export in 2013, and also determine the remunerations due to companies operating in the region for inclusion in the 2013 federal budget law, it said. The two sides also agreed to establish a committee to track the amount of oil produced and refined. Another committee is to follow up on the implementation of the agreement and work to resolve any obstacle that may be encountered until an oil and gas law. Baghdad and Arbil are at odds over issues including the KRG’s refusal to seek central government approval for oil contracts with foreign firms, and over a swathe of disputed territory in northern Iraq. ============ Baghdad warns ExxonMobil while a deal with Erbil is gathering momentum Written on September 21, 2012 by Editor in KRG, Oil By Shwan Zulal: The deal will benefit both sides, enabling the Kurdistan region to accelerate expanding its oil sector and Baghdad to increase production to historical highs. The Kurdistan Region has no independent pipeline and the only route is through the Baghdad-owned Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline. Therefore, the KRG feels that it has been left with no option but to truck oil to its neighbours and recently to Turkey, which has agitated Baghdad. ExxonMobil’s logistical preparation on the ground in Kurdistan is well underway. According to its contract, it is likely to have to begin exploration which starts with the seismic survey soon. The standard Production Sharing Contract stipulates that the IOC’s is expected to start operation within the first sub period, which is three years. During which the first exploration well must be drilled with all the preparation that entails. Meanwhile, knowing a year has passed and not much work has been carried out and this deadline is nearing, Baghdad has upped the rhetoric and indirectly threatened ExxonMobil with exclusion from its contract to develop the giant West Qurna-1 field in southern Iraq. Most of the warnings have been coming from people close to the Iraqi oil ministry and the real power in Baghdad’s oil sector, the Deputy PM for energy, Dr Hussain Shahristani. The strong language included ” …If they dig, they cannot take Iraqi oil”, reported the specialist media group Iraq Oil Report , meaning if ExxonMobil start operation under their obligations, Exxon will risk its West Qurna-1 contract and at the same time they will not be able to sell their Kurdish oil through Iraqi pipelines. Furthermore, the website quoted Baghdad officials saying that the way to retaliate can take more subtle forms: “Do not give them permits to come, do not allow their people to work … and they will find that they are not welcome here”. These types of comments are worrying, though, more for Iraq than for ExxonMobil. If ExxonMobil’s operations in the south are obstructed, the main loser will be Iraq as failure to increase production will cost Exxon less than $2 per barrel while Iraq and its people will lose over $100 per barrel. Needless to say, limiting ExxonMobil’s operation may hurt the company somewhat financially if they lose what they have invested so far, but it will have more far reaching implications. Shell, which has been obedient to Baghdad and is ExxonMobil’s partner in West Qurna-1 field, will also be affected if development is hindered and lawsuits commence. When ExxonMobil signed its deal with the Kurdistan region, Baghdad was completely taken by surprise. So far, Dr Shahristani has refused to accept that Dr Ashti Hawrami, KRG Oil minister, has outmanoeuvred him. Should Baghdad cancel the West Qurna-1 contract, ExxonMobil has made it clear that it will take legal action. Last week, information about the meeting that ExxonMobil had with Baghdad officials has come to light; Dr Shahristani was reported to have been very frustrated and “hardly able to control his emotions” during the meeting. Baghdad’s options are limited when it comes to punishing ExxonMobil. Its strong language has been heard before, and it would need to demonstrate why, this time, it is capable of executing its warnings. As a sovereign government, Iraq can do as it wishes dealing with the IOCs. But if it does deliver on threats, including cancelling contracts and making life difficult for ExxonMobil, it too will suffer. June this year, in the Global Petroleum Survey carried out by Canadian research group the Frazer Institute, Iraq was ranked at the bottom of countries for oil and gas investment, due to bureaucracy, poor security, lack of certainty and clarity about the law and regulation and the fiscal terms on offer. Although Iraq has among the world’s largest conventional oil and gas reserves, official comments on making life difficult for international oil companies will not improve its rating. This article first appeared on Kurdish Views ============================= Subject Re: Shell pondering Kurdi move, again View parent message Votes for this Posting Voted UP 52 times. Message So, now the Iraq Oil Ministry is threatening to add SHELL to Shahristani's blacklist for talking to Kurdistan. It's getting to be rather a long list... and effectively confirms the latest report from Reuters posted on Friday evening. GLA, scaramouche ----------------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.shafaaq.com/en/news/3605-iraq-includes-shell-in-the-blacklisted-if-contracts-with-kurdistan.html Iraq includes Shell in the blacklisted if contracts with Kurdistan Subject Peering through the gloom.... Votes for this Posting Voted UP 165 times. Message Hi everyone, There have been some very interesting posts today relating to the Half-Year Results , and I must admit that, despite the abundance of information provided, I still found myself feeling strangely ‘ in the dark’. I have done my best to see my way through 'the gloom' and these are my current impressions. There were several disappointing aspects to the results, in particular:- • The departure of Adnan Samarrai, a man to whom I believe that we all owe an immense debt of gratitude, off to the Ministry of Natural Resources. Good luck Adnan, you definitely deserve it! • The lack of of oil sales since the end of May 2012, probably as a direct result of the constant arguments between the KRG and the ICG and halt in exports. Until then, it looks as though GKP was actually producing about 5000 barrels per day, of which about half was our net working interest and generating revenues of around $3 million per month. • The deteriorating cash position, caused partly by lack of production revenue, partly by the delay in the payment of $55 million costs owed to GKP in respect of BIRs, and partly by the delay in the sale of Akri-Bijeel which had first been mooted towards the end of 2011. But on the plus side, for those like myself who are hoping that a Takeover (or at least the sale of Shaikan), will happen fairly soon:- • There seems little evidence that GKP is really looking to enter the FTSE, despite the oft-repeated claims that they intend to do so. The target date has repeatedly moved and “NO DISCUSSIONS have as yet been held with the UK Listing Authority regarding the Company's eligibility for the premium segment”, suggesting that there is no real appetite for this... no matter what we are hearing from TK. Furthermore, Adnan’s departure, the unlamented loss of Lord Truscott, and the evident lack of interest in acquiring the mythical 3rd NED (first promised what now seems like an eternity ago) suggest no pressing need for such otherwise ‘key’ personnel. • The intention to get rid of Excalibur seems to have stepped up a gear. No longer do we read just that the company “continues vigorously to dispute and contest the allegations and claims” but we now see (amongst the Outlook highlights) that GKP is determined to “Successfully remove the uncertainty caused by the claims asserted by Excalibur”. • Sheikh Adi-2 seems to have been drilled extremely rapidly, reaching a depth of 2754m after only about 3.5 months. Indeed, the rapidity of this drill seems almost to have taken JG by surprise – “The well IS being drilled 1.45 km to the north of Sheikh Adi-1” and “Sheikh Adi-2 WAS drilled to a measured depth 2,754 metres”(way beyond the original 2450m target) ... all rounded off with “As a consequence of good preliminary results from the logs and cores, the Company plans to conduct a well testing programme across 7 target zones”. My suspicions are that sometime within the next two months we will actually be hearing much more substantive news on OIP figures from Sheikh Adi (in which we have a massive 80% Net WI), and evidence as to why GKP and DGA have apparentrly thought for quite some time that Shaikan and Sheikh Adi are connected. • There seems no sense of urgency to drill SH-7. JG says “we plan to spud Shaikan-7 during 2013”, whereas the May 2012 presentation on P10 shows it as being scheduled for January 2013. And that same presentation refers to a 2012 target to “Increase Shaikan EWT output to 30 – 40 kbopd to ramp-up export and domestic sales”, while now it appears that it is simply “expected by mid-2013”. These statements are perhaps rather telling in their vagueness. • Even Akri-Bijeel seems to lack the importance that had been implied since November 2011 when TK first informed Reuters “We’ve got a lot of interested parties, but we have not identified a purchaser. “We haven’t gone to the bidding process yet. It’s in the data room process, data gathering and identifying interest.“ http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2011/11/14/gulf-keystone-sees-interest-in-akri-bijeel/ Apparently, now instead “The Group is evaluating the ongoing process of the sale of the Company's 20% interest in the Akri-Bijeel block as the forthcoming results of the three wells currently being drilled and planned early production from the Bijell discovery are to be taken into consideration.” That is all fair enough, except that I thought the main reason for selling Akri-Bijeel was to contribute to a much more healthy balance sheet. Maybe, that no longer matters! So, overall I find it impossible to avoid the feeling that GKP could have made far more of certain key positive events in this latest RNS... if they wanted to, and that they seem remarkably unconcerned by what would normally be regarded as disappointments... even minor ones. Maybe of much greater importance than what they do say.... is what they don’t!! And perhaps what used to be at least a desire to dress things up in the most attractive way possible so that GKP was indeed the most popular girl at the dance, has been superceded. Maybe the ‘belle of the ball’ is now rather tired of showing everyone just how great she is. It could be that she just “knows” it..... and is no longer the least bit concerned about putting on vast amounts of make-up. I sincerely hope that her vanity, or rather Todd's, is not in some way misplaced. AIMHO and please DYOR, GLA, scaramouche ============ 23-07-12 Re: From advfn on 23bbls. GKP.L 46 View Author's profileAdd to favouritesIgnoreAuthor's posts The author has omitted to use an average oil saturation and a formation volume factor to convert from reservoir bbls to stock tank barrels. This explains why the DGA number is lower. Having said that there is still scope for the OIP to increase beyond the latest 13.7 Bn figure (will cover later). Shaikan-what is it worth ? GKP.L 59 Unfortunately this article misunderstands how the PC works. The author BlackGold assumes cost oil is 40% of the net reserves after royalty. Cost oil is only available against actual expenditures. Assuming an export oil price of $90/bbl or $81/bbl post royalty, for the contractors to claim 810 mm bbl of cost oil they would have to spend 810 x 81 = $65610mm developing the field i.e. $65.6 Bn in Capex and Opex. The field will not cost anywhere near that much to develop, even if it lasts 50 years. The 2.25 Bn bbl recoverable figure in the AGM presentation was not based on the latest OIP numbers as these were only released on the day of the AGM. It will have been based on the previous 7.5 Bn or 10.5 Bn OIP estimates. It is not even a GKP estimate. The estimate was made by IHS and according to Todd is intended for comparison purposes only. I tried to pin Todd down on this at the AGM but he slipped the question which was an attempt to confirm that GKP would not show such a number if they believed it was unduly optimistic. Otherwise they might be open to accusations of pumping the stock value. It was a strange thing to do ... to show a recoverable resources estimate by someone else but not be prepared as the field operator to comment on the validity of the estimate. Why lend it some credibility by showing it in a company presentation? Regards, Gramacho ============= bonobo77 View Profile Add to favourites Ignore Date posted 2012-09-20 09:23 Subject Re: Expectations View parent message Votes for this Posting Voted 47 times. Message opulentia ... if the claim is settled out of court, the claim disappears and therefore the 'uncertainty' engendered by the claim (e.g. will GKP lose a chunk of value to Excalibur?) disappears with it. There will be no 'uncertainty' of impending legal action in the eyes of a bidder ... only the certainty that GKP is increasing its numbers, developing its prize asset, selling (and being paid for) oil under the new agreement and is a sitting duck for a major(s). ============== bonobo77 Date posted 2012-09-20 09:23 Subject Expectations opulentia ... if the claim is settled out of court, the claim disappears and therefore the 'uncertainty' engendered by the claim (e.g. will GKP lose a chunk of value to Excalibur?) disappears with it. There will be no 'uncertainty' of impending legal action in the eyes of a bidder ... only the certainty that GKP is increasing its numbers, developing its prize asset, selling (and being paid for) oil under the new agreement and is a sitting duck for a major(s). Excalibur - outside the box scopic at last some are standing up to the cyber bullies so i"d like to tell you where i stand, like it or not, i bought back in at 143p and sold out last thursday at 245p with a £5k profit from a modest £7k outlay and before anyone sudgests i close the door on my way out i would like to guess that 4 out of 5 posters trade this share many times in a year and some in a week! i hope to re-invest near the end of the year this time with 12k.i know i"m taking a chance but i"ve seen this sp go up and down to the point of being what 30p up in the last 10 months or so. Excalibur is a red herring regarding rexs" claim but it won"t stop the city exploiting the sp just one last time, imho if so i want to be in again from a profitable position could be wrong and get left out in the cold but thats where trading gets you, if so well done to those who continue to hold, i will not of course be talking the sp down over the coming weeks not my style. ================ stuventus View Profile Add to favourites Ignore Date posted Thursday 18:00 Subject Excalibur - outside the box Votes for this Posting Voted 15 times. Message There have been hundreds of posts recently debating if GKP will settle before or take it through and go for the victory. Analyzing the pros and cons to GKP and over analyzing it to the n`th degree. Hmmm, anybody considered that Excalibur might not want to settle? or rather their backers might not want to settle? If its true (IF IF IF) that Excalibur were going around the City looking for the $9.5m they needed to continue, then do you not think that the backer will have had a rather large say in the strategy? We must not be arrogant as to think it is solely GKPs decision whether or not they want to settle. If Excalibur or their backers wish to see this to the end, then GKP cant to jack about it. Posts have looked at the theory that BG have accumulated as they are confident of the outcome - and that a T/O could follow soon should GKP win. Anybody considered other theories? Perhaps BG have actually been accumulating on behalf of somebody else.... what if it were Excals backers? perhaps the 5% threshold is not related to T/O at all....maybe it is a hedge against the court case....or maybe it is in order to make $$$ loads if Excal lose/ agree settle. The increase in value of 5.01% shares less the outlay of $9.5m costs would be a huge financial gain. (I am not putting this forward as what I think is happening, but just as an exercise to make broader our field of vision as to what is theoretically possible. FWIW I have no idea in going on I am just happy to sit and watch reserving grey matter capacity for other interests.) Just thought I would actually try and give a perspective from a different angle, interesting what you can theorise if you dont just look for what you want to see. And what was I reading earlier? posts about when the best time to settle would be, and chances of settling on day one. For goodness sake wake up, this is not some petty insurance fraud or GBH case. Do you think they have founded funding to the tune of nearly $10,000,000 just to waltz in on day one and say, you know what we dont have a case, lets settle and retire to the Gordon Arms for a burger and pint! This could be a fight for a stake in the most valuable asset ever discovered. Could we please consider that this is a genuine case, sure IMO from what I have read and heard in the pre hearings GKP (IMHO have much the stronger case). But GKP alone cannot decide to end this. Excalibur and their backers are still here for a reason, I have no idea what it is, but can we please acknowledge this point. All totally hypothetical and my own nonsensical ramblings. =========