--Iraq offers firms some 100% stake in the new concessions, up from 75%
--Companies will be compensated if field development delayed
--Iraq to hold meeting in Istanbul to modify model contract
(Adds more quotes, details and background throughout)
By Hassan Hafidh
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
AMMAN (Dow Jones)--Iraq has made "favorable" changes to some of the terms of the 20-year technical service contracts offered to international companies to explore for oil and gas in 12 promising blocks listed in the country's fourth licensing auction scheduled for May, a person close to the Iraqi oil ministry said Monday.
The most important change the Iraqi oil ministry has made to the original model contract is that international firms would have 100% stake in the projects, with state-owned Iraqi companies holding none, he said. That was up from the 75% stake initially proposed and should also allow faster cost recovery as the companies will have bigger shares of the discovered and produced oil and gas output to pay their bills.
The new changes were made after feedback from oil and gas companies concerned that they would be taking on risky contracts for minimal rewards, the person, who asked not to be named, told Dow Jones Newswires.
The Iraqi oil ministry will meet its advisors, the U.K.-based Gaffney, Cline & Associates, in Istanbul in March to finalize the draft model contract before handing it to companies in April, the source said.
The person said the ministry has changed a provision that allowed the Iraq ministry to postpone development of fields, to a period of up to seven years from the date of the announcement of commercial discovery, which was mentioned in the previous model contract and was one the terms disliked by potential bidders.
"In case of oil discovery and the Iraqi government decides to put on hold development of the field, contractors are liable to reimburse costs of appraisal and exploration plus interest at Libor +3% during the years that the development is on hold," the source said.
In the previous draft contract, contractors were not liable for such interests.
"For special costs which include de-mining, building roads, etc, contractors are liable to receive interest at Libor +5% during the years that development of fields is on hold," he added.
The move comes as some oil majors, including France's Total SA (TOT) and ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM) of the U.S., have shown more interest in exploration in the country's northern semi-autonomous Kurdistan region than from the middle and south, which are controlled by the central government.
Nine companies have dropped out of the fourth bidding round but Iraq expected a good number of bids from the 37 firms still in the race, oil ministry officials had previously said.
Iraq is planning in May to auction 12 promising exploration blocks, seven of which are believed to contain natural gas, and five to contain crude. The new bid round, expected to add some 10 billion barrels of crude oil and some 29 trillion cubic feet of gas to Iraq's reserves, has already been delayed twice amid arguments on whether the contracts offered should be of the production-sharing type wanted by the explorers or the fixed-fee service contracts wanted by the government.
For the fourth bidding round, Baghdad has so far refused to offer industry-standard production sharing contracts, where the oil company owns a portion of the oil in the ground and can profit from its sale. It is instead insisting on service contracts that pay companies a fixed fee for the amount of oil or gas they produce.
-By Hassan Hafidh; Dow Jones Newswires; +962 799 831 831; hassan.hafidh@dowjones.com
========
وكالة أميركية: العراق عدل عقود النفط بما يمنح امتيازات كبيرة للشركات العالمية
المحرر: CC
الاثنين 20 شباط 2012 16:59 GMT
السومرية نيوز/ بغداد
كشفت وكالة أميركية للأخبار المالية، الاثنين، أن العراق أجرى تعديلات مهمة على عقود النفط ضمن جولة التراخيص الرابعة المتوقع إجراؤها في أيار المقبل، ولفتت إلى أن تلك التعديلات تتيح للشركات العالمية الحصول على امتيازات كبيرة، منها 100% من حصة المشاريع، فضلاً عن تعويضات عن أي تأخير تتسبب به الحكومة.
وقالت وكالة "داو جونز" ، إن العراق وضع تعديلات مهمة على بعض بنود عقود الخدمات التقنية المعمول بها منذ 20 عاماً مع الشركات العالمية التي تسعى إلى التنقيب عن النفط والغاز في 12 موقعاً محتملاً أدرجتها وزارة النفط ضمن جولة التراخيص الرابعة المقرر عقدها في أيار المقبل.
وأضافت الوكالة أنه وفقاً للعقد الجديد، ستكون حصة الشركات العالمية 100% من المشاريع، مقابل لا شيء للشركات الحكومية العراقية، بعد أن كان العقد يتقاسم الحصة بين 75% للأولى و25% للثانية.
ومن المتوقع أن تساهم هذه الخطوة في تعويض التكاليف التي تتكبدها تلك الشركات بسرعة أكبر، خصوصاً أنه سيكون لديها حصة أكبر في حقول النفط والغاز المكتشفة والمنتجة لدفع مستحقاتها، بحسب الوكالة.
وعزت الوكالة سبب إجراء التعديلات إلى قلق شركات النفط والغاز المعنية من المجازفة وتوقيع عقود استثمارية مقابل مردود قليل، فضلاً عن إبداء عدد آخر، بينها شركتا توتال الفرنسية وأكسون موبيل الأميركية، اهتمامها بمجال التنقيب عن النفط في حقول تقع شمال البلاد في إقليم كردستان التي تتمتع بحكم شبه ذاتي، بدلاً من حقول الوسط والجنوب التي تسيطر عليها الحكومة المركزية.
وذكرت الوكالة أن وزارة النفط العراقية ستعقد اجتماعاً في آذار المقبل في مدينة إسطنبول التركية مع مستشارتيها، الشركتين البريطانيتين غافني وكلاين وشركائها، لوضع اللمسات الأخيرة على العقد قبل تسليمه في نيسان إلى الشركات العالمية التي ستشارك في جولة التراخيص الرابعة.
وأشارت الوكالة إلى أن الوزارة عدلت بنداً كان يسمح لها بتأجيل تطوير الحقول حتى سبع سنوات من تاريخ الإعلان عن استكشاف، بعد أن واجه انتقادات من قبل المتقدمين بالعطاءات.
وأوضحت الوكالة أن البند الجديد يتيح للشركات المتعاقدة الحق بتعويض تكاليف الاستكشاف والتخمين في حال قررت الوزارة تعليق العمل في الحقول النفطية، بالإضافة إلى الحصول على 3% من عائداتها النفطية كفائدة عن كل عام تم تأجيل العمل فيه، و5% من أي تكاليف أخرى تتعلق بإزالة الألغام وبناء الطرق وغيرها، عن كل عام أيضاً.
وكانت 9 شركات من أصل 46 انسحبت من جولة التراخيص الرابعة لتطوير 12 حقلاً نفطياً المتوقع إجراؤها في أيار المقبل، حيث يعتقد مختصون أن سبعة منها تحتوي على الغاز الطبيعي، والخمسة الأخرى على النفط الخام.
ومن المتوقع أن تضيف الجولة نحو 10 مليارات برميل من النفط الخام ونحو 29 تريليون قدم مكعب من الغاز إلى احتياطيات العراق.
وقد تم تأجيل الجولة مرتين على خلفية الجدل الذي حصل بشأن ما إذا كان يجب أن تكون العقود المطروحة على أساس تقاسم الإنتاج، الطرح الذي تدعمه الشركات المستكشفة، أو عقود السعر الثابت التي تدعمها الحكومة.
يشار إلى أن نموذج العقد ذا السعر الثابت يكون بتحديد العمل كاملاً والتكاليف كافة بشكل مسبق.
=============
Iraq’s Deputy Oil Minister Addresses Dispute Between Erbil and Baghdad
20/02/2012 00:42:00 By HEVIDAR AHMED
Font size: Decrease font Enlarge font
image Iraqi Deputy Minister of Oil Mutasam Akram. Photo Rudaw.
In an interview with Rudaw, Mutasam Akram, Iraq’s deputy minister of oil since 2003, discusses the disputes over oil and gas between Erbil and Baghdad. Akram, 57 and a native of Erbil, says Hussein Shahristiani, Iraqi deputy prime minister and former minister of oil, is not against Kurdish interests and if Kurdish leaders meet with him they would reach a positive outcome.
Rudaw: When the Iraqi government was formed in 2010, the Kurds agreed to participate on the condition that the country’s oil and gas law was approved by the parliament within one year. But two years on, that law has not been passed yet. Why?
Mutasam Akram: Regarding the Kurdish preconditions, we have met with the Kurdistan Region president (Massoud Barzani) twice. The files on oil and gas, the one passed in 2007 and a separate one drafted by parliament itself, have both been referred to Iraqi Parliament. I have read both files in detail and the major dispute is whether oil and gas should be run by the central government or by the federal committee in charge of oil and gas. But that committee cannot be formed before the oil and gas law has been passed. So, the dispute between Erbil and Baghdad is about the powers of that committee.
“In my opinion, this issue is beyond the ministers’ powers and has to be debated at the level of political leaders.”
Rudaw: How can that dispute be solved?
Mutasam Akram: I don’t think it can be solved in parliament. It has to be settled by the political parties then sent to parliament for approval.
Rudaw: In order to draft the oil and gas law, Kurdistan Region’s minister of natural resources and the Iraqi minister of oil were supposed to meet face to face, but the Iraqi minister of oil was not willing to meet. Why?
Mutasam Akram: I have heard the same talk outside the ministry. But Kurdistan’s Ministry of Natural Resources sent a letter to Iraq’s Ministry of Oil in the middle of December 2011, sharing their views on the oil and gas law, which was mainly about the division of powers. The Kurdistan Region does not want to be under Baghdad’s supervision with its oil and gas sector and Iraq’s Ministry of Oil has not responded to that yet.
Rudaw: It means the problem is Baghdad. They don’t want to solve this dispute?
Mutasam Akram: The issue is political and replying to the letter of the minister of natural resources is outside the powers of the Iraqi minister of oil. It is in the hands of the government and the political groups have to discuss it. In my opinion, this issue is beyond the ministers’ powers and has to be debated at the level of political leaders.
Rudaw: It is said that the main cause of dispute between Baghdad and Erbil is Hussein Shahristani, Iraq’s deputy prime minister of the affairs of oil and gas. What do you say to that?
Mutasam Akram: I worked with Shahristani for five and a half years when he was the minister of oil. It is not true at all that he is against the Kurds. I believe he has never been against the Kurds and he is a modest person. I am sure if the Kurdish leaders had healthy discussions with him, they would have reached a better outcome. And I still believe there is hope for meetings with Shahristani and satisfactory results.
“Erbil and Baghdad should not wage this war of words in the media over oil and gas,”
Rudaw: Why Shahristani in particular?
Mutasam Akram: The truth of the matter is that Shahristani has a major role in drafting Iraq’s oil and gas law and he is deputy prime minister for the affairs of energy. I believe Erbil and Baghdad should not wage this war of words in the media over oil and gas until the law has been passed. Despite the current war in the media, there are no real technical issues and Kurdistan Region’s oil is exported normally. But this hostile tone would have a negative outcome.
Rudaw: Signing some contracts between the Kurdistan Region and ExxonMobil, an oil giant, has angered Baghdad and the capital has asked the company to cancel its deals. Where does this issue stand at the moment?
Mutasam Akram: Inside Iraq’s Ministry of Oil, no actual step has been taken against ExxonMobil and what we see is only in the media. ExxonMobil is the biggest oil company in the world and, if they wanted to work in some part of the world, they would think it over a hundred times before making a decision. When they sign a contract, they know well what the results will be. If ExxonMobil had known it would lose by signing a contract with the Kurdistan Region, it would not have done it. The same goes for the French Total that is also one of the biggest oil companies now in Kurdistan. Both companies enjoy heavy economic and political weight in the world and they wouldn’t have come to Kurdistan had they known they would lose.
Rudaw: Why does Baghdad not want ExxonMobil to work in Kurdistan?
Mutasam Akram: The agreement was that companies that have contracts with and work in the Kurdistan Region should not also work in Iraq. Back then, when a delegation from the Ministry of Natural Resources came to Baghdad and met with Abdulkarim Liebi, the minister of oil, the situation was suitable for the Kurdish delegation to tell Baghdad that companies involved in Kurdistan should also be allowed to work in the rest of Iraq. I even said that to the minister and his accompanying team. I also reminded them for the second time during the meeting in Kurdish, but they still refused to raise it with Iraq’s minister of oil.
“Inside Iraq’s Ministry of Oil, no actual step has been taken against ExxonMobil and what we see is only in the media.”
When delegates of Kurdistan’s Ministry of Natural Resources come to Baghdad, they do not inform me that they are coming and have a meeting with the minister. I was notified by the minister himself that a Kurdish delegation was coming.
Rudaw: According to the agreement between Baghdad and Erbil, how many barrels of oil is the Kurdistan Region supposed to export daily?
Mutasam Akram: In 2011, the Kurdistan Region was supposed to export 120,000 to 150,000 barrels a day, but they only exported 94,000 barrels. In 2012, they are expected to export 170,000 barrels every day, but it is still being debated whether Kurdistan will abide by that agreement or not. Kurdish officials say they don’t have to abide by it and Iraqi officials say they have to. The 2012 annual budget will show that.
Rudaw: There were talks about the Kurdistan Region selling crude oil to Iran illegally. Does Baghdad have any evidence of that?
Mutasam Akram: Unfortunately, because of rivalry and party affiliations, the Kurds come to Baghdad and share all the information they have with Shahristani and the officials of Iraq’s Ministry of Oil. Maybe those people are outside the ministry and don’t know them. When a statement by Kurdistan’s minister of natural resources appears on a Kurdish website, they immediately translate it into Arabic and give it to Shahristani.
One example here. In 2010, Ashti Hawrami, the minister of natural resources, said to a Kurdish website “the Kurdistan Region does not need Baghdad’s oil,” and this statement was handed to Shahristani at once. In turn, he said that so long as they do not need Baghdad’s oil products, 50 percent of their share should be reduced. It was the month of Ramadan and Shahristani’s decision created a crisis in Kurdistan. President Jalal Talabani contacted me by telephone and I went and talked to Shahristani. It took me two or three hours of talking and recitation of verses from the Koran to persuade him to change his mind.
Regarding smuggling oil to Iran, I know nothing. When I raised the issue with Shahristani, he said he had hard evidence and I told him that it was not true.
Rudaw: How much oil reserve does Iraq have?
Mutasam Akram: Iraq has 143 billion barrels of untapped oil. I don’t know about Kurdistan, but what I see in the media suggests that Kurdistan has 45 billion barrels.
============
18:34
Do I wish I had bought more?
jhp001
14UP
I used the small retrace today to make a number of purchases in the 420's- particularly with the added confidence in seeing the 450 mark strongly tested.
Of course I wish I had discovered GKP earlier, in 2009, and started to acquire in the early days up to 70p.
However I am more than happy that once I got on board and made purchases there has been subsequent price advancement forcing my next purchases to average up.
None of us have the burden of absolute knowledge of what the future will bring (thank God), so it is crazy to rue the fact retrospectively that if I'd bought more, my profit would be bigger and I wouldn't need to grab some more.
One of the many things I love about GKP is that there have been so many recent opportunities to have another bite of the cherry.
When each piece of specific news emerges I review the basics of the investment proposition at that point and make the decision whether, and how much, to add to my investment.
That way I don't beat myself up that I should have taken different positions previously since the news wasn't out there.
When Exxon were definitively linked to Kurdistani Iraq, this was massive. Adjustment of my position followed. The same withTotal. The same with the RNS this week which legitimised Todd's Independent comments.
With the greater exposure that FTSE top 80 brings (and changes in capitalisation/ volume levels are other specific reasons to average up) there is bound to be distracting chatter surrounding the stock. This message board is terrific- our own ripostes to the Cannacord note are ably given by Scaramouche,Grp, Hub, Bonobo, BBBS, Mikey, CJ and many others.
So purchases today on a small retrace have been stress free for me in the context of the latest live news. For now I feel happy that the size of my position reflects the derisking that the key news items provide me with.
I look at MXP, and XEL, and SXX, and while I am pleased for all Pi's that proper valuations are returning I see GKP's Shaikan, BB,AB, SA as the equivalent of four other exciting stocks, and all rolled into one. This remains, at 420p, my best risk/reward opportunity of all of them.
I check FT Alphaville, because, for better or worse it's sometimes best to know what your opposition is saying about you. Given the level of traffic on their site- and the reasonably sizeable visitor numbers from North America, I think it significant that they chose to insert a hyperlink direct to our very own iii messageboard. This will introduce more high net worth investors to the detailed research of Gramacho and the others who have lived and breathed GKP for four years or more, and not just Canna's four minutes.
And for Alpaville to quote verbatim (Santo Traficante) from yesterday's iii thread 'Financial Times reporting standards' shows that they are listening!!
Next news: could be tomorrow, but with 100% certainty it will be on Thursday. That's when I'll review again and decide whether and how much to add as part of my strategy of unremitting accumulation until judgement day.
=============
18:34
Do I wish I had bought more?
jhp001
14UP
I used the small retrace today to make a number of purchases in the 420's- particularly with the added confidence in seeing the 450 mark strongly tested.
Of course I wish I had discovered GKP earlier, in 2009, and started to acquire in the early days up to 70p.
However I am more than happy that once I got on board and made purchases there has been subsequent price advancement forcing my next purchases to average up.
None of us have the burden of absolute knowledge of what the future will bring (thank God), so it is crazy to rue the fact retrospectively that if I'd bought more, my profit would be bigger and I wouldn't need to grab some more.
One of the many things I love about GKP is that there have been so many recent opportunities to have another bite of the cherry.
When each piece of specific news emerges I review the basics of the investment proposition at that point and make the decision whether, and how much, to add to my investment.
That way I don't beat myself up that I should have taken different positions previously since the news wasn't out there.
When Exxon were definitively linked to Kurdistani Iraq, this was massive. Adjustment of my position followed. The same withTotal. The same with the RNS this week which legitimised Todd's Independent comments.
With the greater exposure that FTSE top 80 brings (and changes in capitalisation/ volume levels are other specific reasons to average up) there is bound to be distracting chatter surrounding the stock. This message board is terrific- our own ripostes (A retaliatory action, maneuver, or retort.)to the Cannacord note are ably given by Scaramouche,Grp, Hub, Bonobo, BBBS, Mikey, CJ and many others.
So purchases today on a small retrace have been stress free for me in the context of the latest live news. For now I feel happy that the size of my position reflects the derisking that the key news items provide me with.
I look at MXP, and XEL, and SXX, and while I am pleased for all Pi's that proper valuations are returning I see GKP's Shaikan, BB,AB, SA as the equivalent of four other exciting stocks, and all rolled into one. This remains, at 420p, my best risk/reward opportunity of all of them.
I check FT Alphaville, because, for better or worse it's sometimes best to know what your opposition is saying about you. Given the level of traffic on their site- and the reasonably sizeable visitor numbers from North America, I think it significant that they chose to insert a hyperlink direct to our very own iii messageboard. This will introduce more high net worth investors to the detailed research of Gramacho and the others who have lived and breathed GKP for four years or more, and not just Canna's four minutes.
And for Alpaville to quote verbatim (Santo Traficante) from yesterday's iii thread 'Financial Times reporting standards' shows that they are listening!!
Next news: could be tomorrow, but with 100% certainty it will be on Thursday. That's when I'll review again and decide whether and how much to add as part of my strategy of unremitting accumulation until judgement day.
SECOND HIGHEST CLOSE
bosnianbob
23UP
I think I am correct in that statement. Do I detect a slightly worried tone to the board? If so those who were here back in the days of dropping to 80p on the Excalibar news could tell the rest about 'worried'. I am no psychologist so I cannot explain the creeping negativity. TK told us to hold. Others have repeatedly warned of underhand tactics. Take a step back and look at some of the threads today. There will be a number ion here who bought up to 465p and will be rightly disappointed or nervous. But worry not. I assume you invested on the fundamentals and maybe on the strength of some of the posts of the board elders. So brace yourselves and hold firm people. Enjoy the camaraderie of the board and remember we have closed at our SECOND HIGHEST CLOSE - EVER
=========
Just off the phone to them.
Presentation due to start tommow 2.30pm (UK time)
Apologies if info already posted.
GeezaBreek
=============
14:57
Capital Research and Management Company
Lost in Lao
15UP
I have not had time to read the BB posts of today, so my apologies if this has been discussed already.
This is just a short note to provide some information relating to Capital Research and Management Company, who we have seen from today’s RNS has reduced “its” holdings in GKP from 43,121,564 shares to 40,871,564 shares (a reduction of exactly 2,250,000 shares).
For those of you who don’t know, Capital Research and Management Company is the investment advisor to 33 American collective investment funds. It is part of the Capital Group. More information can be obtained from their website:
http://www.capgroup.com/about_us/index.html
Looking at the figures for 31 December 2011 (the latest figures published by Capital Research and Management Company), it can be seen that the following funds acting under the advisory services of Capital Research and Management Company have holdings in GKP:
New World Fund:
624,750 shares – Market Value at 31/12/11 = $1,843,450 plus
13,140,000 Reg D shares – Market Value at 31/12/11 = $38,772,198
https://www.americanfunds.com/funds/details/holdings.htm?fundGroupNumber=36
SMALLCAP World Fund:
33,442,632 Reg D shares – Market Value at 31/12/11 = $98,679,174
https://www.americanfunds.com/funds/details/holdings.htm?fundGroupNumber=35
As at 31 January 2012, GKP amounted to 0.7% of the Smallcap World Fund’s net assets (in joint 7th place) – you should note that the largest equity holding in the fund only amounts to 0.9% of the fund’s net assets.
https://www.americanfunds.com/funds/details.htm?fundNumber=35
Total holdings in the two funds at 31 December 2011 amounting to 47,207,382 shares.
I am no expert on US Securities laws, but I understand from investopedia that Regulation D (known as Reg. D) is a “Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulation governing private placement exemptions. Reg D allows usually smaller companies to raise capital through the sale of equity or debt securities without having to register their securities with the SEC.”
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/regulationd.asp#axzz1n7WO4xAU
Presumably the Reg. D shares were acquired by the two funds following one of GKPs private placements.
Whilst I cannot say with any certainty why the fund(s) has(have) reduced its(their) GKP holdings, in my opinion the likely reason will relate to rebalancing the portfolio (and banking some of their considerable profits), especially in view of the considerable increase in value of the holdings in GKP. Part of my day job is providing legal advice to off-shore collective investment funds and I have been on the board of a number of collective investment funds / fund managers. I see no reason at all to have concerns regarding the disposal made by the funds under the advice of Capital Research and Management Company. In my opinion there is nothing sinister here to worry about, although the scaremongers would wish you to think so.
LIL
==============
Anyone been on KOEP today?
renardargente
9UP
Rags; KOEP-ers in general have been in GKP for a number of years. After 2.5 years in this share 4 months ago GKP was worth a mere 40% of what it is AFTER today's fall. What happened since? Exxon entering Kurdistan was the first step-change. So, nothing changed there today.... Exxon almost certainly made an approach ( with what they knew at the time - i.e. not much on BB ) at twice the SP today. So, again nothing changed there today. The SP has been chased to £4 plus by a sustained clamour for shares that has cost the acquirers £100s millions. If 35 million shares ( or whatever ) were traded today then 17m costing £70m approx. were bought. I get the picture.... There are a large number of entities worldwide with very deep pockets after GKP shares. They've tried to buy them through normal market methods. That obviously did not work. Now they are trying unscrupulous methods.
That's what changed today.
--
yesterday was a swarm of bullish-trolls, today its their offspring, bringing the foul vaginal fungus ridden putrid stench to the board.
--
17:00
Reverse psychology
Hub
5UP
I'll tell you what - If Genel and GKP do release news tomorrow of a mega discovery at BB-1, then hats off to both of them for keeping the ships nice and tight.
A 12% fall on GKP and circa 4.4% fall on Genel would have most thinking that the news is known and the insiders are bailing. But looking at Genel's volume today - it was minor really so no signs of Nat and TH's mates clearing out.
That said - BB-1 is not really a material aspect of Genel's business at present. Probably priced at zero.
The same could be said for GKP. Shaikan is the prize and the other 3 licences barely get a mention in any decent broker note.
But I suspect any disappointing or below expectations news tomorrow will be sold into on GKP like it's out only core asset lol!
Remember - JG has high hoped for AB regardless of the last well. As per GRH1's comments - the BB-1 well is positioned some distance from the big black hole stuff in the centre. Quite a step out.
We know BB-1 has seen hydrocarbons - but the question is... is the structure a bit like SA?
I guess we'll find out in the morning - I would expect Genel to RNS the headlines at 7am and then elabourate in more depth at the capital markets day.
Considering both companies could do with showing a tight ship on news for corporate governance reasons (eg. Mehmet was done for insider dealing and TK's amazing 9p placing days before SH-1 results) if BB is a big success story tomorrow - if anything, they'll have ticked the 'not leaky' ship boxes.
HUB
-----
17:14
Just in Case there is any Doubt
MikeyAdmin
11UP
No way would today have happened, is bad News was coming.
If an II or HNWI was selling down because of bad News, then the SP would have been held up while their shares where distributed.
As it is IMHO, is the word is out that Good News is coming shortly, hence the rush to grab shares today and yesterday, and no way would they have been so many large Buys.
Before the Genel Conference, we may get an RNS from Genel, or even SH-1 or an Ops Update.
Mikey
--
17:28
Delayed Trades
Liver-RULE
11UP
Mikey my man,
Got the following.........
Volume Buy/Sell @ Value (approx)
200,000 Buy 368.00 736k
300,000 Buy 370.00 1.10million (wowser)
313,450 Buy 415.00 1.30million (wowser)
11,849 Buy 366.85 43k
11,200 Buy 391.79 43k
50,000 Buy 376.40 188k
137,010 Buy 392.16 537k
27,600 Buy 370.25 102k
18,381 Buy 382.77 70k
100,000 Buy 370.00 370k
6,400 Buy 381.75 24k
150,000 Buy 368.74 553k
250,540 Buy 382.19 957k (Wowser)
5,450 Buy 366.50 20k
20,000 Buy 370.69 74k
250,000 Sell 365.00 912k
100,000 Sell 365.00 365k
200,000 Sell 365.00 730k
Like Mikey pointed out, there's someone out there with more money & clout than us average jo's who want our shares - dont let them have them!!
===
19:15
Post from a GKP nobody
CheapAsChips44
25UP
Going to try and keep this in a plain and grounded stance.
My credentials in the eyes of long term gutsy GKP stalwarts are zero.
I have set my position up with tranches at £4.22 - £4.26
Now that may be seen as buying on a spike and to first view it was and in a normal situation it would be classed as a bad trade but the position bought is bought and i will not spend even two seconds worrying about the position and the value of my stock holding.
I may sound like our friend Spencer or a typical poster of nonsense but that is something that at this moment in time is not important to me.
All that is important is the "Final Price".
You have seen that said somewhere before and you know who said it and to be honest i am a good poker player but i would not sit down and play a hand with Todd although it would probably teach me a lesson in how to bluff while hiding your cards "in plain sight".
I am not posting this because of some long learned lesson of holding long with a set selling price, and i did not buy those £4.26 shares because of some long technical study of GKP and it's current assets or future capabilities.
I bought purely on 'advice' and i will sell my position before the summer is out at £17 a share
What is occurring on GKP at the moment is nothing short of well organised legal theft and the victim is every single pi who is becoming caught and stunned in the headlights.
Well this particular rabbit is behind the 2nd tree on the left next to the bus stop and waiting for the guys with the carrots.
============
FAO CJ
Chicago Jack
31UP
alaqsa. I would not comment on Spencer freeman snippets Re Shaikan sale. All I can say is how would the sale effect the FTSE proposed listing if it were ever to get that far.
Time will tell- I expect all Pi's are just now wishing this saga is put to bed, they can take the money and enjoy life with the proceeds.
I expect 3D and Elena S will be distraught with envy at all the well off Pi's walking around around with healthy bank balances.
CJ
====
I pray all is well CJ, especially on the health front...I appreciate you giving time on this board, end even more so when considering that almost all are strangers and so forth. Anyway, here's the question:
There are rumours and a all sorts flying around about the sale and takeover of the whole company, or a partial sale of GKP - namely the Shaikan asset. At the same time, all your posts, to my understanding, refer to the takeover and bids (whether formal or informal) being laid on the table for the WHOLE company and not just Shaikan. Now in light of what Spencer Freeman has been adamant on - and that is the sale of Shaikan - to an extent that today he has gone on air, or shall i say twitter, and posted the following:
Spencer P R Freeman
Don T.Kozel is Godfather. I've crack it. Thank you Mr Todd Kozel. EXXON £8 BILLION OFFER for SHAIKAN to be announced imminently in Public.
Have you heard anything through your contacts that would suggest that there is some truth in what he's saying, or are we being lined up to be taken out in full in the near future.
Many Thanks
alaqsa1967
======
FAO CJ
alaqsa1967
1UP
Fair point CJ, but how would it affect the FTSE listing? Although your tone/wording gives me the impression that there will be no more GKP in the very near future, hence no FTSE listing.
My predicament is quite unusual. I took out a t20 at my own risk yesterday at £4.20, worth £32000, and although had a chance to sell today at 406 once they had recovered after the very first fall to 390ish, didn't muster the courage thinking that thy'll recover like the pattern of the last 10 days. I have enough funds to sell out and cover the loss at the current price, but confused with the takeover issue as i don't have that many shares which are bought and safe. Hence, what if there is no BIG news imminent and price drops? My t20's since January have worked really well and allowed me to buy a few more shares....I know you might not want to be too open about certain matters but what's your opinion on any timescales re takeover?
Many Thanks CJ
============
20:38
Re: £500 million wiped off GKP
woooody
7UP
'Things will be very ugly on this BB tomorrow'.
Elena, I wasn't aware you could post mugshots. What time do you intend showing us your piccies?
Anyway, you like posting graphs. Well, I notice your beloved XEL is up THIRTY FIVE PERCENT this year, despite a 5% drop today (commiserations).
Whereas, GKP is, well..up..quite.... a... lot.... more.
Bye!
=======
20:32
Re: Price
MikeyAdmin
11UP
I bought 3 times today on T20's.
Each time my trader kept going to Negotiated trade several times before they the MM's allowed my trade through, so I could not get the bottom of each new low, but with no premium for T20's, I bought anyway.
What the MM's where buying was for their orders, not for me, but I got some more, and still in profit over all my T's.
When the ewak sell, the brave buy, and watch out for tomorrow or Friday
===========
20:25
Re: Post from a GKP nobody
CheapAsChips44
11UP
jbtrend, i know this sounds quite flippant but i have not bought GKP on any rumour, i have bought GKP on information.
There is a very important difference.
As for worrying. I only buy stocks where there is an edge. They could have 4 teaspoons full of oil in an old chipped coffee mug and i would still have purchased the same amount of shares at the same price.
My buy in has nothing to do with any OIP or anything remotely technically brilliant about GKP's past successes, any information from a broker, any rumour from a guy in the pub, nor anything to do with Cockey (fantasy island) Spencer.
I was 'advised' and i bought.
Time will tell if that buy was a fortunate one or not.
The last few days of posts across LSE and iii GKP boards will look a tad amusing when they are viewed again when applying the sun cream.
Trust me on that !
======
20:01
£500 million wiped off GKP
Elena Saratov
There was volume behind todays move.
The smart money has already exited.
I expect the 320p support to be tested tomorrow.
This has now got momentum.
Things will be very ugly on this BB tomorrow.
----
Iraq Boosts Oil Export Capacity
New project inaugurated in Basra as part of long-term energy strategy, but can domestic production keep pace?
By Ali Sarhan - Iraq
ICR Issue 388,
20 Feb 12
1
2
3
A plan to triple Iraq’s oil exporting capacity took off with the inauguration of the first floating terminal in the Gulf port of Basra this week.
The new Single Point Mooring, SPM, can process 850,000 barrels per day, and is the first of five similar terminals intended to increase Iraq’s export capacity from 2.1 million to over six million barrels per day. The other four should be in use by the end of 2013.
Iraq’s export expansion plans for the Gulf include two undersea and one onshore pipeline, as well as the five SPMs for loading tankers.
Oil ministry spokesman Asem Jihad welcomed the five-terminal project, located in Al-Faw, south of Basra.
“It’s one of the largest and most important projects in Iraq, and has no precedent,” he said. “The opening of this port is part of the ministry’s plans to raise export capacity over the next few years.”
Iraq currently produces 2.9 million barrels a day, but – under deals reached in 2008 when the government awarded 15 oil and gas deals to international firms such as Shell, Exxon Mobil, BP and Total – the plan is to increase daily output to rise to 12 million barrels by 2017.
Iraq has the world's third-largest oil reserves, and 95 per cent of its revenue comes from oil exports, so increased production has to be linked with improved capacity to export.
“This is why this project is of such strategic importance to Iraq,” said Jihad.
Some experts question the strategy, arguing that it is not viable because the oil industry infrastructure is in such poor shape after decades of war and international sanctions.
Raad Qasim, an oil engineer, told IWPR that production levels of 12 million barrel per day by 2017 were unrealistic.
“How can a country with damaged oil institutions and a lack of professional staff reach such a production level in such short space of time?” asked Qasim. “And another factor should be taken into account – the widespread corruption in government departments.”
Oil officials said that the terminal inaugurated this week was just part of efforts to address infrastructure constraints.
Uday al-Quraishi, an operations director at the oil ministry, explained that the new project would boost the industry’s overall capacity because it included “pipelines and tanks as well as ports”.
Faruk Mohammed, an oil expert and retired technical manager at the South Oil Company, told IWPR that an increase in oil production, if it was synchronised with the right export facilities, would “definitely enhance Iraq's economy and improve living standards for Iraqi people, who have suffered a lot of injustice in recent years”.
“Such projects will undoubtedly be a step towards the prosperity that all Iraqis dream of,” he said.
Ali Sarhan is an IWPR-trained journalist based in Basra. IWPR Iraq editor Abeer Mohammed contributed reporting to this story.
====
Subject Excalibur v GKP - Part 2b (General Matters)
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 16 times.
Message
This is Part 2b (and final Part) of the Excalibur v GKP analysis. Please note that I am not a professional in the field of commercial law. This is just my understanding of matters and should NOT be relied upon. As ever, do your own research.
The first post contained a summary of the court hearing in the reported judgment reported at [2011] EWHC 1624 (Comm). Due to length Part 2 was split into breach of contract (Part 2a) and the other general issues / claims (a much shorter Part 2b, this Part). If you wish to read the first two posts before this one, you can find them at the following links:
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3AGKP.L&threshold=50&it=le&action=detail&id=9175516
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AGKP.L&display=discussion&threshold=0&action=detail&id=9194907
1. Is the claim now limited to $500m?
The judgment states that "on 21 December 2010, Excalibur made an application without notice to this court, seeking a worldwide freezing order against TKI and the Gulf defendants. This was originally for an unlimited sum, but was then reduced to an amount of $510 million in aid of both the Commercial Court proceedings and the arbitration proceedings."
Freezing orders can only be obtained where they are NECESSARY. There must be a risk of dissipation to show necessity. In other words, but for a freezing order, there is a "real risk" that the defendant would dissipate his assets.
Dissipation usually refers to dealing with, disposing of or diminishing the value of one's assets. This is where Excalibur came unstuck, among other points. Mrs Justice Gloster stated that she "was not satisfied that Excalibur had shown any risk of dissipation".
More importantly for the question of claim size, freezing orders can only be necessary if the monies that one is seeking to freeze are likely to be required to satisfy any successful judgment that you might obtain. In other words, you cannot freeze more than you need. A court would not ordinarily allow you to restrain £1m when the judgment you are seeking, and likely costs incurred, is for a combined sum of e.g. £0.5m.
I can therefore see why, in principle, Excalibur reduced the amount it sought to be frozen from an unlimited sum to $510m. If all Excalibur was claiming was "30% of the hydrocarbons currently in the possession of the Defendants", then why would they need to freeze an unlimited amount, i.e. 100% of the Defendant's assets? Just in case the Company's share price increases, is not a good argument to put before a court and the Company would suffer.
How was the precise $510m figure chosen then? My calculations are as follows. The sp at the time was 1.87p on the day of the freezing order application at close. Take this figure and * 754,243,161 shares in issue = £1.41bn m/cap = $2.18bn m/cap at the exchange rate of the day * 30% = $655m. Then deduct Excalibur's share of the expenses and you have $500m*0.3 = $150m deducted from the $655m. This leaves $505m as their claimable loss (plus costs), which is remarkably close to the $510m they sought to freeze. Other variables might be the intra day price used to calculate the share price or currency rates, or / 51 *54, to get Texas Keystone's interest in too. But we are not that far off.
What does this actually mean? The long and the short of what I am trying to convey is that although the judgment refers to the claimant seeking to limit the FREEZING ORDER to $510m, this does not mean to say that the CLAIM was limited to $510m. The CLAIM was still for 30% of all the hydrocarbons currently in the possession of the defendants, it is just that at the time it was only necessary to freeze $510m to reflect that 30%.
So my provisional answer to the question "Is the claim now limited to $500m?" is that there is no evidence of this in the judgment. Where can we turn to next to get more information.
2. Non-parties seeking documents from the court.
There are rules of Court dictating how a non-party to the court proceedings can obtain from the court certain documents that form a part of the court case.
You can have a look at these rules in Part 5 of the Civil Procedure Rules, which can be found at:
http://www.justice.gov.uk/guidance/courts-and-tribunals/courts/procedure-rules/civil/menus/rules.htm
Make sure if you are looking that you look at the Rules and the Practice Directions too.
Rule 5.4C details when non-parties can get access to documents from Court records. We must now split this up into two parts, an easy part and a more difficult part:
(a) The statement of case and any orders or judgments made in public
The presumption is that a non-party can get access to the statement of case. Rule 5.4C(1) states:
"(1)The general rule is that a person who is not a party to proceedings may obtain from the court records a copy of –
(a) a statement of case, but not any documents filed with or attached to the statement of case, or intended by the party whose statement it is to be served with it;
(b) a judgment or order given or made in public (whether made at a hearing or without a hearing), subject to paragraph (1B)."
Well, what is a statement of case?
In Part 2, Rule 2.3 defines a statement of case as follows:
"‘statement of case’ –
(a) means a claim form, particulars of claim where these are not included in a claim form, defence, Part 20 claim, or reply to defence; and
(b) includes any further information given in relation to them voluntarily or by court order under rule 18.1;"
So, you as a non-party to the proceedings, can if the general rule is applied, get access to / a copy of Excalibur's claim form, the particulars of Excalibur's claim, GKP and TKI's defence that they have filed, any counter claim by GKP or TKI if any (a Part 20 claim), any reply by Excalibur to GKP / TKI's defence, and any other information given by the parties in relation to these documents either voluntarily or where ordered by the court (Rule 18.1).
These may not contain masses of information. The documents are often very short. But you should be able to determine, if you obtain them, whether or not Excalibur's claim has been limited to a particular sum of money rather than to 30% of the hydrocarbons. I would bet quite heavily that they are still claiming 30% of the hydrocarbons. Still an interesting exercise though to get these documents.
You are not guaranteed to get the documents if you ask for them. Various rules in 5.4C limit access in certain situations, but I cannot see that they affect the Excalibur case. There does not appear to be mediation and service has been acknowledged and defences etc. The claim has been listed for a hearing. No problem likely there I think.
Rule 5.4C(4) gives the Court discretion to disapply the normal rule and refuse or restrict access where a party to the proceedings or a person referred to in the statement of case, applies to the Court to have the general rule disapplied. But the party (i.e. GKP / Excalibur / TKI) must make such an application otherwise the Courts will supply the full statement of case, and given that there has already been some public judgment on this case and public hearings, I think it unlikely that a court would refuse a non-party access to these documents.
I add that you also do not need to notify the parties when applying to the Court for these documents.
If there is a contest and if GKP/TKI/Excalibur succeeds in applying to the Court to have your access to these documents refused, then you may need to seek the Court's permission and to make a formal Part 23 application to get a hearing and you might be required to pay TKI/GKP/Excalibur's legal costs if you lose. That said, I don't think it would get to that stage, you would not be required to seek permission and could just leave matters there without further escalation and the White Book (the leading civil procedure book) states at page 138 that:
"An order made by the court under r5.4C(4), preventing a non-party from obtaining from court records copies of documents to which he would otherwise be entitled, is in derogation of the principle of open justice and must be granted only when it is necessary and proportionate to do so, with a view to protecting the rights which applicants (and others) are entitled to have protected by such means (G v Wikimedia Foundation Inc [2009] EWHC 3148 (QB)"
So my conclusion on the statement of case, or on any judgment or order made or given in public, is that ordinary shareholders can apply to the court to get these documents and it is likely, but not guaranteed, that these will be supplied. You may need to pay a prescribed fee to get the documents though, see Rule 5.4D(1). You do not need to apply by way of a formal Part 23 application as the court's permission is not required for these documents.
On reading these documents, one should be fairly certain as to whether or not the claim has at any stage been limited. I'd be interested to see these documents if someone is keen to apply. I could do so myself I guess, but writing this has been of more interest to me.
(b) Any other documents
This is the more difficult bit, but potentially could reveal more interesting results. It is more work to get these documents and there could be medium or high cost implications if you do not succeed as you have to make an application from the outset and there is no general rule that you will get the documents.
Rule 5.4C(2) states that:
"A non-party may, if the court gives permission, obtain from the records of the court a copy of any other document filed by a party, or communication between the court and a party or another person."
You cannot seek to just generally view the court file. You must identify with some precision the documents that you wish, see Dian AO v Davis Frankel & Mead [2004] EWHC 2662 (Comm), [2005] 1 WLR 2951.
See also para 4.3 to the Practice Direction to Part 5, which states "An application under rule 5.4B(2), 5.4C(1B), 5.4C(2) or 5.4C(3)(b)(ii) for permission to obtain a copy of a document, even if made without notice, must be made under CPR Part 23 and the application notice must identify the document or class of document in respect of which permission is sought and the grounds relied upon."
I.e. this is a formal on notice application to the Court that has to follow set Rules of Court in terms of how the application is made.
The White Book (the leading civil procedure guide) emphasises the following, which I paraphrase / summarise. The Court on an application will exercise its discretion based on the overriding objective (see Part 1), based on the principle of open justice and including the appellant's reasons for wanting to see the documents. Where documents have been read by the court as part of the decision making process, the court should lean in the favour of disclosure if a legitimate interest can be shown for obtaining the documents, even if it is not to monitor whether justice is done. The Court should not be as ready to grant access where documents were not read by the Court as part of the decision making process. In such circumstances, permission should be granted only if there were strong grounds for thinking that it is necessary in the interests of justice, see the Dian AO case again.
Conditional disclosure might be permitted and confidentiality may also restrict access.
The White Book also makes it clear that page 138-9 that:
"Increasingly, in making their decisions in cases coming before them, judges rely on papers prepared by the parties and no read out in open court (including disclosed documents, witness statements and skeleton arguments). Such documents may be among the types of documents referred to in Practice Direction 5A (Court Documents), para. 4.2A, in r.5.4B or r.5.4C, but they need not be. They may or may not be correctly described as documents "filed by a party". If not, they are not documents to which a non-party may have access, even with permission under r.5.4C. The courts have recognised that it is necessary to give the public access to documents that contain material that has been placed before the judge, but not read out in open court as would once have been the case. The two most obvious categories of document are statements of witnesses who are called to give evidence at trial and the skeleton arguments of advocates. By e32.13 a witness statement which stands as evidence in chief is open to inspection by a non-party during the course of the trial unless the court otherwise directs."
The White Book continues later on the same page "In Law Debenture Trust Corp (Channel Islands) Ltd v Lexington Insurance Co (Application for Disclosure) [2003] EWHC 2297...Colman J. said (granting the application of a non party in part) (1) the purpose of the inherent jurisdiction to grant a non party access to written skeletons or submissions is to ensure open justice, (2) where a court is invited to exercise the jurisdiction, it is essential for the court to investigate what part those documents played in the trial, (3) from the commencement of trial, written submissions play an active role in facilitating the conduct of the trial, (4) the policy of openness requires that non parties should be given access to those documents in the course of hearing before judgment, (5) there is no logical objection to an order to this effect being made where a case is settled in the course of trial..."
I flag up that we are not yet at the trial (this may be a material distinction for the court, though the hearing was still an open one to the public) and that any application needs to be made formally through the Part 23 procedure. The Court will charge a fee and if GKP / TKI / Excalibur successfully object, you may need to pay their costs for the application.
So where does this leave us for the harder set of documents to obtain?? In my view, it would be very interesting for a formal application to go into Court by someone with more time and money than me and who could bear the time and / or risks involved (in addition to the more standard request for the statement of case) for permission to have access to certain documents referred to in the judgment of Mrs Justice Gloster, (a) for open justice purposes, (b) to ensure that shareholders can be aware of the evidence taken into account in open court proceedings by the judge on the papers, and (c) because the outcome of these proceedings will have a material effect on the wealth of shareholders. It would also help shareholders prepare for the forthcoming trial, should they be attending.
Further documents could potentially be sought at the trial stage (e.g. skeleton arguments, evidence that will be read etc.)
The type of documents referred to by the judge so far include:
- some of the evidence submitted by the Gulf defendants (I'm not going to detail this here)
- some of the evidence submitted by Excalibur (ditto)
- the collaboration agreement, see para 14 onwards (appreciating that some parts might be sensitive / needing editing)
I'm not saying that such an application would succeed. Anyone seeking anything more than a statement of case should be aware of the risks involved and I would recommend to them to seek legal advice first. I would also recommend discussing this with the parties before making an application so as to minimise costs / court involvement where possible.
I re-emphasise, that this is NOT an area of law I am familiar with and NO ONE should rely on what I have written, at any stage of this post.
As for the other claims that I have not yet dealt with, I have run out of time, so will leave this post here and may add a little more on another date.
===========
Sinopec - Sloane Investor
Avandandy
2UP
Because Genel & Sinopec are partners in the Tawke field. They both are on the acquisition trail...you cannot rule out these games rambo62.
GKP are sellers and the above are buyers. It doesn't pay them to talk it up too much at this stage.
ST
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I think you are confusing Tawke with Taq Taq, DNO is the partner on Tawke, not Sinopec.
----------
Sloane Investor
AlBrad
"The Chinese know their military tactic theory. Sinopec initially had bid for Shaiken so Exxon stay transfixed on Shaiken. Exxon's eyes are off BB and so Sinopec just want to tuck BB nicely into their pocket with a cosey relationship with Genel."
Hmmm, nice theory, but somehow I can't see Exxon being so 'slack', especially when they know of the potential connectivity between BB and Shaikan, and not least because they have moved into the block just next door that looks to be another part of the super-giant jigsaw puzzle.
Exxon will have a full gaze on ALL the potential assets in front of them - of that you can be sure!
=====
02:21
Amateur Observations
Mick333
30UP
I'm a honest man. I have an investment of £9k at todays SP. It's everything I have. I've been trying to day trade trade now and again in betwwen shifts at work and get a quick lift up. It's like I'm running uphill backwards on a sand dune. But I'll keep trying.
What the heck has that got to do with anything? I can hear people asking.
Well nothing really. Except that sometimes when you're outside the 'real game' maybe you can see what's really happening.
I can only imagine what it would be like to put a nought or two behind the £9k that I have, and how it would change everything.
For instance, yesterday's 12% drop on a £90k investment would have shown about a £10k loss. It would shake any sane person up. Stone me, try and earn that driving a bus!
But remember it's a paper loss. It's not a realised loss .Experienced investors must know this. If they're happy with fundamentals and they're own valuation, they'll see it through and trust their judgement.
The point being, the more you have invested, the more you have to lose and consequently the more likely you are to be shaken by swings. It's only human.
If leveraged, this pressure is surely multiplied.
All this said. logic therefore dictates the less risk adverse are presumably more likely to use stop losses.
Bad move.
No guesses who has this figured out a milleneum ago.
The AIM is not a place to use stops. If you feel you need to use stops, then maybe it;s the wrong enviroment for you or pehaps you're over invested for the given 'risk'.
Good luck to everyone.
Mick
======
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 2012
Occidental Petroleum: A Well Oiled Stock
By DIMITRA DEFOTIS | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
Geographic diversity, rising dividends and a strong balance sheet are all reasons why the energy giant deserves to be a "core holding."
Article
Comments (1)
Why Subscribe?
You could call Occidental Petroleum an accidental integrated. While mostly a global oil and gas exploration company, its chemicals business puts it in a class with big oil names.
Los Angeles-based Occidental (ticker: OXY), which has an $85 billion market capitalization, is boosting capital spending by 10% this year and should deliver 8% to 10% production growth. This should help boost 2012 earnings by 2% while some integrated exploration and refining giants, including ConocoPhillips (COP), face 6% earnings declines. Like-sized exploration and production peers with similar profit growth, including Anadarko Petroleum (APC), have richer valuations.
What really sets Occidental apart ...
==========
Iraq to Raise Crude Oil Production to 4 Million Barrels in 2013
Iraq to Raise Crude Oil Production to 4 Million Barrels in 2013
Bloomberg - [2/24/2012]
Iraq plans to increase its production of crude oil to 4 million barrels a day in 2013, an oil ministry spokesman told state-run Iraqiya television.
“Iraq is on its way to reaching production capacity of 12 million barrels of crude oil a day but will not necessarily produce these quantities,” Assem Jihad said in an interview with Iraqiya today. Iraq “will monitor international markets and will pump oil without affecting” them, he said.
The Arab nation, holder of the world’s fifth-largest oil reserves, depends on sales of crude for most of the revenue it needs to rebuild the economy after years of war, sabotage and economic sanctions. The Persian Gulf state has awarded 15 licenses for drilling rights to foreign countries since the U.S.-led invasion that ousted President Saddam Hussein in 2003.
Iraq plans to produce 3.4 million barrels a day this year while exports will exceed 2.6 million barrels a day, Jihad said. “Iraq will negotiate with OPEC to decide on the quota when production reaches 4 million,” he said.
Iraq, which is the third-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, pumped 2.75 million barrels a day in January, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News.
=========
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/24/mol-idUSL5E8DO05Z20120224
When asked if MOL was planning to buy out its partner Gulf Keystone Petroleum's stake in the Akri-Bijeel block in Kurdistan, Molnar said MOL had no such plans.
-
UPDATE 2-Hungary's MOL to focus on upstream growth
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Energy »
Fri Feb 24, 2012 9:58am EST
* MOL won't buy new refinery, didn't bid for Poland's Lotos
* Capex $1.5-2.0 a year in 2012-14, over half on upstream
* Downstream posts operating loss in Q4, Croatia unit weighs
* Upstream has strong Q4, despite Syria cuts (Adds comment from MOL, share price)
By Krisztina Than
BUDAPEST, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Hungarian oil and gas group MOL is not planning to buy new refineries and will focus investment on upstream assets in Kazakhstan, Russia and the Kurdistan region of Iraq where its wells are expected to start producing oil in 2015-17.
Chief executive Jozsef Molnar said on Friday, after MOL reported a net fourth-quarter loss of 31 billion forints ($143 million), that capital spending would total $1.5-2.0 billion a year from 2012-14, with over half going to the upstream segment.
Upstream was the key business driver for MOL last year, while downstream operations suffered from a weak industry environment exacerbated by stoppages at its Croatian refinery.
Molnar said MOL did not submit a bid for a state-held stake in Polish oil refiner Lotos late last year, due to a lack of sufficient information, and was not planning to buy new refineries in central eastern Europe.
MOL has refineries in Hungary, Croatia, Italy and Slovakia.
"We aim to focus on this region, we are not planning to buy a new refinery ... but we are planning to make smaller acquisitions in terms of logistical and retail networks in the central eastern European region within the shipment radius of our (existing) refineries," Molnar told a news conference.
When asked if MOL was planning to buy out its partner Gulf Keystone Petroleum's stake in the Akri-Bijeel block in Kurdistan, Molnar said MOL had no such plans.
"We have so far invested over $600 million in Kurdistan and we need to invest a further $170 million this year in order to be able to carry out the development programme needed for production to start (there)," he said.
"So we cannot increase this in a significant way."
He said MOL was planning to open nine more exploration and appraisal wells in its two blocks in Kurdistan in 2012 and 2013.
Commercial production is expected to start in 2015-2017 with a projected peak output at 55,000 to 62,000 barrels per day after 2017.
Molnar also said MOL was not planning to shut down its underperforming refineries at Sisak in Croatia and in Mantova, Italy, but was planning to improve their efficiency instead.
DOWNSTREAM PRESSURE
MOL swung to a net loss in the fourth quarter of 2011 from a net profit of 36.1 billion in the same period of 2010.
"Extraordinarily unfavourable developments in the external environment, almost disappearing heavy light (oil price) differentials, and refinery stoppages in Croatia, put an unusual heavy pressure on downstream profitability, further worsened by seasonal trends in Q4 2011," MOL said in a statement.
MOL said its downstream business had an operating loss of 88.8 billion forints in the fourth quarter, with its Croatian unit INA weighing heavily on the group result.
Despite production cuts in Syria, MOL's upstream segment posted a quarterly operating profit of 87.4 billion forints, up 23 percent from the last quarter of 2010.
MOL said upstream growth was boosted by the restart of Croatian oil and condensate sales after the Sisak refinery returned to operation in November and by a strengthening dollar.
This more than offset the negative effect of lack of Syrian revenues after announced production cuts in Syria, it said.
The company said it planned to finance its capital spending fully from operational cash flow in 2012-2014.
It also said it expected 2012 production to drop to 135,000 barrels per day in a "normal business environment" from last year's average daily hydrocarbon production of 147,400 barrels.
It sees 3-4 percent production growth from 2014.
MOL shares traded at 18,860 forints per share at 1405 GMT, up 0.25 percent on the Budapest bourse, while the wider market was up 0.8 percent. ($1 = 217.2038 Hungarian forints) (Editing by Hans-Juergen Peters and Mark Potter)
===========
Latest offer premium is now 134.0% to pre bid price, so many derampers claiming such premiums are never offered.
15:27
Re: Watson?Mulva? Tillerson
Sloane Investor
Interesting synopsis Chicago Jack. I think many need to read Sun Tzu's book 'The Art of War' it will greatly help to understand the tactics over there.
There is definitely some US/China brinkmanship going on.
==================
Author Arundallio View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 17:09
Subject Exxon Investor Presentation
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 6 times.
Message
Do we know about this one
Tell me about Kurdistan.......No Comment?
Exxon Mobil Corporation
2012 Analyst Meeting
Thursday, March 8, 2012 at 8 a.m. CT
ExxonMobil’s 2012 Analyst Meeting will take place on Thursday, March 8, 2012, with a live audio webcast beginning at 9 a.m. ET / 8 a.m. CT. The webcast will last for approximately 3 hours. ExxonMobil’s presenters will be led by Chairman and CEO, Rex Tillerson.
===
Great news
surrey surfer
4UP
Hello buddy. Im not in this stock and i don't follow the news. I rarely read RNS's on the stock that i do hold. It's all krap in my opinion. I trade the charts and volume only. There was definately some "professional" buy though mid week. The fact that today has gone down on low volume back into a previous area of high volume is a sign of strength. IF monday closes up that will comfirm it. It could drip down a little more but providing we close above yesterdays low (or 320 at the worst) and again on lower volume than today, that will also be another type of test which is a sign of strength.
SS (keep an eye on RRR guys)
--
18:04
Exxon in Nigeria...
digibobdeluxe
4UP
Exxon have just announced the first production from an offshore field in Nigeria - the Usan field.
Their partners in this project..... Chevron and Total !
Well well well.... you never know - could be all three of them coming our way!
==
17:56
Re: GKP - Holding & Delta Positions List
freerun
I have the list off Bloomberg.
How do I put it on this board? Copy & Paste messes all the allignment.
Shows the movers and shakers.
Sloan if you want to save the file as a csv (comma delimited file). You can then open it in notepad and then paste the result in this BB. People can then copy and paste into notepad save it with a csv extension and then load it into excel. This way you can have all the columns and the excel format. You won't lose anything. Just a thought. oh balls, sorry, I just borrowed the XLS version someone made for download, it finished on row 36. Sorry.
MikeyAdmin
1UP
Sorted out and put into a more easily read form
It shows that Capital have been pulling the wool over our eyes, and shows there is no sneaky buying by any Predators.
tsalex
Hm... I can't see any of our famous spread betting companies or their groups in the list. Does that mean that they are not hedging those position with actual shares? If they are only borrowing the stock how then they return the stock and honor the cash at the same time? I'm puzzled as I though they should hold physical stock as well.
========
Holder Name Holder ID Position Change Filing Date Filing Source Insider Status Percent Institution Type Country
PRUDENTIAL PLC 91889 60897153 0 03/10/2011 RNS-MAJ N 7.12 Investment Advisor BRITAIN
TD WATERHOUSE GROUP INC 150708 50810288 0 01/04/2011 Co File N 5.94 Investment Advisor UNITED STATES
BAILLIE GIFFORD & COMPANY 52421 42954255 0 09/02/2012 RNS-MAJ N 5.02 Unclassified BRITAIN
BARCLAYS PERSONAL INV MANAGEMENT 160943 41948918 0 01/04/2011 Co File N 4.91 Investment Advisor BRITAIN
CAPITAL RESEARCH AND MANAGEMENT 1483 40871564 0 16/02/2012 RNS-MAJ N 4.78 Investment Advisor UNITED STATES
GULF KEYSTONE PETR LLC -999 40000000 0 01/04/2011 Co File N 4.68 n/a n/a
HALIFAX SHARE DEALING LTD 146857 36642748 0 01/04/2011 Co File N 4.29 Investment Advisor BRITAIN
CAPITAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTOR 171684 34692632 -4520531 31/12/2011 MF-AGG N 4.06 Investment Advisor UNITED STATES
GOKANA TRUST 198409 29733365 0 01/04/2011 Co File N 3.48 Other n/a
BLAKENEY LLP 175903 29171400 0 17/05/2010 Co File N 3.41 Investment Advisor BRITAIN
NATALON CO LTD -999 27227017 0 20/09/2011 RNS-MAJ N 3.18 n/a n/a
SELFTRADE 161770 25335227 0 01/04/2011 Co File N 2.96 Unclassified BRITAIN
CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS 171687 13764750 0 31/12/2011 MF-AGG N 1.61 Investment Advisor UNITED STATES
GUARDIAN INVESTOR SERVICES LLC 221 12235858 -51100 31/12/2011 MF-AGG N 1.43 Investment Advisor UNITED STATES
AL-QABANDI ALI -15417724 9450000 4000000 13/06/2011 RNS-DIR Y 1.11 n/a n/a
JPMORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT 97586 8999501 0 31/12/2011 MF-AGG N 1.05 Investment Advisor BRITAIN
HENDERSON GLOBAL INVESTORS 138247 6168405 2019580 30/09/2011 MF-AGG N 0.72 Investment Advisor UNITED STATES
CAPITA FINANCIAL MANAGERS 137043 5170000 65000 31/10/2011 MF-AGG N 0.6 Mutual Fund Manager BRITAIN
VANGUARD GROUP INC 84365 3028253 180049 31/12/2011 MF-AGG N 0.35 Investment Advisor UNITED STATES
LEGAL & GENERAL GROUP PLC 81035 1887500 0 30/12/2011 MF-AGG N 0.22 Investment Advisor BRITAIN
ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN LP 193 1362141 -1033984 31/12/2011 MF-AGG N 0.16 Investment Advisor UNITED STATES
AINSWORTH KRISTIAN EWEN -6945290 1237297 0 08/04/2011 Co File Y 0.14 n/a n/a
ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN LUXEMBOURG SA 117158 1078607 -661665 31/12/2011 MF-AGG N 0.13 Investment Advisor LUXEMBOURG
MEESCHAERT FCP 137184 1050000 0 30/12/2011 MF-AGG N 0.12 Investment Advisor FRANCE
TRUSCOTT PETER DEREK -4601552 755888 0 08/04/2011 Co File Y 0.09 n/a n/a
RS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT 20765 713399 162900 30/09/2011 MF-AGG N 0.08 Investment Advisor UNITED STATES
KOZEL TODD FRANCIS -6768581 693337 0 12/01/2012 RNS-DIR Y 0.08 n/a n/a
BLACKROCK FUND ADVISORS 203398 658029 0 22/02/2012 MF-AGG N 0.08 Investment Advisor UNITED STATES
HARGREAVE HALE LTD 147914 520000 0 03/01/2012 MF-AGG N 0.06 Investment Advisor BRITAIN
VARZI MEHDI -16187755 468888 0 08/04/2011 Co File Y 0.05 n/a n/a
SYMPHONIA SGR SPA 137819 333412 281935 30/09/2011 MF-AGG N 0.04 Investment Advisor ITALY
TCW GROUP INC 340 300000 0 31/12/2011 MF-AGG N 0.04 Investment Advisor UNITED STATES
DEKA INTERNATIONAL SA 114917 280000 0 30/09/2011 MF-AGG N 0.03 Mutual Fund Manager LUXEMBOURG
JUPITER ASSET MANAGEMENT 74599 250000 0 30/06/2011 MF-AGG N 0.03 Investment Advisor BRITAIN
GERSTENLAUER JOHN BERNDT -16220243 231777 0 08/04/2011 Co File Y 0.03 n/a n/a
BIM INTERMOBILIARE SGR SPA 225866 0.03
F&C MANAGEMENT LTD xx xx 139530 0.02
SCEPTRE INVESTMENT COUNSEL LTD 118289 0.01
LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED 108030 0.01
ALLIANCE BERNSTEIN JAPAN LTD 99026 0.01
ALLSTATE INSURANCE COMPANIES 74462 0.01
GAMCO ASSET MANAGEMENT INC 70000 0.01
ASSET ADVISORS CORPORATION 50000 0.01
LOMBARD ODIER DARIER HENTSCH 30000 0
STRATEGIC INVESTMENT SERVICE 27586 0
WESTPORT RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN 16750 0
P J SCHMIDT INVESTMENT MGMT INC 15000 0
STATE STREET BANQUE S A 10968 0
WILLIAM BLAIR & COMPANY LLC 10000 0
RETIREMENT PLANNING GROUP IN 6500 0
AMONIS SA 0 0
BIM INTERMOBILIARE SGR SPA 0 0
==============
Author scaramouche View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted Tuesday 11:17
Subject Upsetting the apple-cart......
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 156 times.
Message
When deciding the boundaries for a major task or project, you need first to decide what is, and what is not, “in scope”.
For some time, especially since the arrival of Exxon in Kurdistan, our focus has been on the American companies (Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips) as the ones most likely to scoop up GKP or its PRIZE asset Shaikan.
However, always lurking somewhere in the shadows have been our Asian friends, initially Korea in the shape of KNOC and more recently China in the form of SINOPEC... although lately many of us (including myself) have deemed them probably ‘out of scope’!
Maybe it is time for a re-think....
Way back in June 2009, Sinopec made a successful bid for Addax petroleum and their assets in Kurdistan of $7.2 Billion.
http://www.chinastakes.com/2009/6/sinopecs-risk-taking-bid-for-addax.html
They were successful by offering a substantial premium per barrel of reserves compared to their opposition. The oil price at the time was only about $56 (about half of what it is today), but Sinopec was prepared to take a long-term view.
Addax’s assets included 45% of the Taq Taq oil field, a field in which Genel also has a significant stake (Note: The latest figures for Taq Taq production are 75000 bopd and TH estimates that it is a One Billion barrel oil field.) http://www.platts.com/weblog/oilblog/2011/12/05/at_the_wellhead_9.html
In buying Addax, of course, Sinopec also encountered the wrath of Baghdad, who blacklisted them from working in Iraq.
*** So, I suppose you could say that Sinopec were the first of the super-majors to upset the Iraqi apple-cart ***.
Following Sinopec, there were undoubtedly many companies who entered Kurdistan because Sinopec had defied Shahristani’s attempted blockade of investment into the region. The KRG must therefore feel a huge debt of gratitude towards them.
Sinopec were also amongst the suitors for Genel in the middle of 2011, until Tony Hayward’s Vallares swept into town, and bought up Genel in a deal worth $2.1 billion (or $5.90 per barrel of proven reserves).
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-07/vallares-agrees-to-merge-with-genel-in-2-1-billion-share-deal.html
In a press conference at the time, Mehmet Sepil of Genel confirmed that the Vallares deal was NOT the highest offer. Indeed, it is widely believed that Sinopec were prepared to offer around $3 billion, but that the attractions to the KRG of a British/Turkish co-operative on Kurdish soil helped to seal the deal for Vallares. Sinopec must however have been a trifle miffed at losing out to a lesser offer.
And so to the possible attractions of our “little company”, now valued by the market at about £3.7 BILLION.......
In March 2011, it was claimed that Sinopec and PetroChina had a war-chest of $36 billion to procure overseas natural resources. So, it is very obvious that Sinopec are never short of cash.
It is also widely-known that China is hungry for the fuel that will help to drive their rapidly growing economy, and that oil is absolutely integral to this.
Furthermore, Sinopec has frequently been linked to discussions over GKP’s assets, and it is notable that this frequency has increased in recent months.
18 December 2011 – Mark Leftly (Independent on Sunday)
“It is thought that the board would not accept the estimated £8-a-share that Exxon is considering and that a number of other companies, perhaps including China's SINOPEC and Californian giant Chevron, are monitoring the situation.”
http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/the-independent-exxon-woos-gkp-to-gain-kurdish-base-62743/
13 Jan 2012 - Tamsin Carlisle (Platts)
“The KRG might welcome SINOPEC as a potential operator for the Shaikan oil field, as China could in time become a valued customer for Kurdish crude.”
http://www.platts.com/weblog/oilblog/2012/01/13/post_6.html
19 Feb 2012 - Mark Leftly (Independent on Sunday)
“US giant ExxonMobil, which has bet heavily on the region, has run the slide rule over the company, with rumours suggesting that Chinese giant, SINOPEC, has also mulled an offer.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/oil-group-plots-elevation-into-ftse-100-index-7166384.html
CJ has also assured us that the Chinese were looking seriously at GKP in Spring 2011 for $43 per share which, given the 750 million GKP shares in issue then, would have stayed just about within budget.
CJ now says that their recently revised view has changed that figure to $61 per share, which works out at something in the region of $52 billion, given the now 855 million GKP shares.
But why would the Chinese even consider that kind of money when GKP has only so far proved up estimated Reserves of about 2.5 BILLION, based on a possible 33% recovery factor and their net working interests across each of their blocks?
The answer is surely a combination both of NEEDS and well-founded EXPECTATIONS.
• Todd was recently quoted as saying that, even at 10.5 billion OIP (P50), Shaikan has a potential 100% upside. (Note: BBBS and GRH1 have good reason to believe it is actually much higher than that.) IMHO, we can expect to see those figures proved up in about May/June 2012.
• Sheikh Adi is believed to be half the size of Shaikan, and preliminary estimates provided in August 2011 suggested 1.9 Billion OIP (P50) after only one well... and we have a huge 80% Net WI there.
• Ber Bahr is believed to be potentially 1.5 times the size of Shaikan.... and we have a 40% Net WI there. Indeed, Tony Hayward must surely be pondering the possible initial figures as we speak and maybe there will be a spectacular announcement before his presentation to the markets on Thursday. And even if BB-1 is not as successful as we hope, the exploration of BB will undoubtedly continue with or without GKP’s involvement.
* BBBS has explained why GKP’s blocks could hold 100 BILLION barrels of OIP ....or 35 BILLION of the 45 BILLION reserves that Ashti Hawrami maintains lie beneath Kurdish soil.
But what has rarely been commented on is that, in that event, GKP’s share of those reserves would be..... about 14.5 BILLION barrels.
*** IMHO, we are just a few months away from seeing GKP’s ‘proven’ share of Reserves estimated at about 5 BILLION... and the upside potential clearly staed as that 14.5 BILLION barrles of reserves alluded to above ***.
On that basis, I can’t help feeling that the Chinese may indeed be just about to throw their hat into the ring and give the Americans a run for their money, and that we ought therefore to be prepared to bring SINOPEC back.... IN SCOPE.
Incidentally, just out interest, try rearranging those letters! Yes, CJ might have been in somewhat cryptic mood this morning – but I have however long preferred that things should be SPELT OUT a little more clearly!
So, SINOPEC - it would really be good to know whether, just like in 2009, you are ready once again... to upset the apple-cart!
AIMHO and please DYOR
GLA, scaramouche
=================================================Author nlper View Profile Add to favourites IgnoreDate posted today 18:35Subject Re: Dalesmans site - BIRs View parent messageVotes for this Posting Voted UP 11 times.MessageFF,You are right about KOPEC.I was trying to find the document I'd read about Kurdistan National Oil Company but came across this instead, even better, from BBBS on Jan 6th 2012. As always, he explains even the confusion clearly.Full article here:http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AGKP.L&display=discussion&action=detail&id=9126192BIR Extract:2. BIR: what, where, who, when?What and where is easy: BIR is 15% at Shaikan and 20% at Akri Bijeel.Who and when is, in the absence of recent disclosure, a bit more tricky... We have to go back nearly eighteen months to find GKP's last 'official' statement on this matter in their RNS of 9th August 2010:" The parties to the Shaikan Block and Akri-Bijeel Block PSCs have agreed to extend the period that the KRG may exercise the Option of Third Party Participation to enable the KRG to nominate a Third Party Participant until 30 June 2011."Moving then to only six months or so ago, we have an 'unofficial official' statement from the 2011 AGM by way of theperpetualoptimist:http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AGKP.L&display=discussion&action=detail&id=8405431"The KRG has told GKP that KNOC have the BiRs to Shaikan but this has not yet been officially confirmed. The deadline of 30th June for the BiRs allocation is still in place."Then we can refer back to just two months ago and that 'special' Presentation in Manchester where Chris Garrett let slip about "the KNOC Back-in Rights".And finally, now that the KRG have kindly published the PSC's, we can confuse ourselves even further with reference to the additional deadline of 31st December 2011 (Article 4.11A).FWIW, my own comments and conclusions concerning the current status of BIR are as follows:- since September 2010, (yes, the past 15+ months), Shamaran's Kurdistan Activity map has shown the "Post 20% BIR" status for Akri Bijeel (refer tabulation above) with the particpants being: MOL 64%, GKPI 16%, KEPCO: 20%. 'KEPCO' is Kurdistan Exploration and Production Company. I emailed GKP IR in September 2010 and was tersely informed that the status remained as per their RNS of 9th August 2010. They stated categorically that neither the 20% BIR nor the 20% KRG entitlement had been awarded at Akri Bijeel, and that investors would be duly informed by RNS when the status changed. There has been no RNS on this matter since that time - hence the status has not yet 'officially' changed. i.e. the KRG have not yet informed GKP. But the Shamaran rumour-mill map does in fact suggest that the BIR have been, perhaps 'temporarily', placed in the care of KEPCO (at least as far as Akri Bijeel is concerned).- given that GKP have NOT issued an RNS concerning BIR in 2012 thus far, the second contractual deadline of 31st December 2011 would appear to be non-relevant. The primary contractual deadline was 30 June 2011, and based on GKP's comments at the AGM ("The KRG has told GKP that KNOC have the BiRs to Shaikan but this has not yet been officially confirmed") and Chris Garrett's slip ("the KNOC Back-in Rights") it seems likely that the KRG have also 'temporarily' placed Shaikan's BIRs into the care of another Kurdistan Company. Nothing to do with Korea - Kurdistan National Oil Company was mooted several years ago as being on the wish-list of the KRG (and why not, every self-respecting country should have one!). IMO only of course. But the FACT - as evidenced by the absence of an RNS on this topic - remains that the KRG have still not 'officially' informed GKP about the 'final' recipient(s) of the BIR's.- The KRG have a perfect role model in Exxon when it comes to 'disclosure' (or rather, the lack thereof). Does anyone seriously expect that either the KRG or GKP will make any kind of announcement in this area - ahead of someone managing to find their tongue?===Oh dear!!! Gandhi's Flipflops 25UPMentioned GKP to my Brother a few weeks ago. Saw him this afternoon when he confirmed that having spoken to his "financial advisor" he was not going to invest in the Company. Apparently his "advisor" had gone away and had done some "research" into GKP> His findings were that the Co. was ".....way, way too overvalued and he could not possibly recommend it as a suitable investment...."My Brother actually pays for this advice!!!==Re: a most disingenuous note! Chicago Jack 44UPWhat will the FSA do if they find Canaoccrd have acted inappropriately , I would imagine not a lot, look at what got, slapped Mehmet Sepil, the former boss of Genel Enerji, was ordered by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) to pay £967,005. former Genel's chief commercial officer, Murat Ozgul, and its Former exploration manager, Levent Akca, £105,240 and £94,062, respectively.wrists, so the reality is you get fined and best of all you still become part of a company listed on the London Stock Exchange.Who says crime dose not pay!!!Hi Dalesmann as you know the 23% higher figure would be taking the figure to around $23.4 billion.I would say that figure is about as good as GKP would receive from Major if everything was equal, but it is worth far more to a Sovereign Nation.The figure of $23.4 billion would still leave big profits for the purchaser over the next 25 years and as technology improves, it will increase more. No body in their right mind will say technolgy will stand still for 25 years will they?CJ I realize the two are not the same,but again it shows how weak the regulation is and continues to be..CJ : a most disingenuous note! Astoot 106UPI just looked at the FSA Market Abuse Fact Sheet link below and noticed that abuse might come in the form of:6. Dissemination – giving out information that conveys a false or misleading impression about an investment or the issuer of an investment where the person doing this knows the information to be false or misleading.The FSA's register shows Canaccord have "authorised" status and are "Able to hold and control client money".So Canaccord obviously need some official scrutiny.Dalesmann your post looks like a great reference for the FSA to consider; do you mind if it is recommended to them for the purpose of evaluating Canaccord's conduct? ======16:33 Re: Just because... 111notout 39UPBig oil companies are used to getting their own way.Which means they want it on their terms.Hope you right and the situation is genuinely competive.If their Bermudan outfit( presumably not required to notify the authorities of holding levels) has been accumulating shares for months - and aggressively recently seing the volumes perhaps this signals it is at least HOSTILE competive after all - I am certain they would prefer a friendly agreed deal.If we believe the £ 8 sound out story - I do- and that it was knocked back - then it depends how many shares they have accumulated so far I guess @ < £ 4 mainly, to dictate how much they need to offer to take out sufficent further shares to force through a deal.I reckon £ 10-14 might be enough - the II's would be seeing a 7-10 bagger from the earlier funding rounds.However - if we keep it real - at Fridays close - you can still effectively buy tenners for fivers - even if £ 8 is the take out price.If like me you believe they may have bought up to a third of the company already sub £ 4 - then the other 2/3rds@ £ 12 :-) - whats not too like ?????????And if their is real competition they may be pushed up to nearer £ 20.So - as I read it - you can safely buy tenners for a £ 5 currently.Possibly buying £ 20's for a fiver still very likely.Drop in PW hopefully lining up Occidental/Chevron/ Sino and any others that if nothing else would like to make XOM 'overpay ' then happy days :-)Hold - and Buy more if you can IMHOGL======Sadr: Maliki is a dictator26/02/2012 13:47ERBIL, Feb. 26 (AKnews) - Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is a "dictator" who is trying to monopolize all of government's achievements, Muqtada al-Sadr, leader of the Sadr Movement, told London-based Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper.Moqtada al-Sadr,Muqtada al-Sadr"[Maliki] is the dictator of this government," said the influential radical Shiite clergy whose bloc has 40 seats in the House of Representatives.His statements were made during a meeting with a group of supporters."Maliki is trying to monopolize all the achievements and if he can't... then he'll try to refuse the achievements of the ministers," he added.The Sadrists have five ministers in the current cabinet.MalikiSadr threw his weight behind Maliki in 2006 to ensure he became prime minister. In 2007 however six ministers loyal to Sadr quit the Iraqi government in protest at Maliki's refusal to set a timetable for a US troop withdrawal. Maliki stated at the time that the withdrawal of these ministers had not weakened his government.By Mohammed Abdul-Rahman=============
High Net Worth Individual - HNWI
Be in no doubt, the SP was taken down to gain shares for HNWI's, just as TK warned us it would be.
A classification used by the financial services industry to denote an individual or a family with high net worth. Although there is no precise definition of how rich somebody must be to fit into this category, high net worth is generally quoted in terms of liquid assets over a certain figure. The exact amount differs by financial institution and region. The categorization is relevant because high net worth individuals generally qualify for separately managed investment accounts instead of regular mutual funds.
Investopedia Says:
The most commonly quoted figure for membership in the high net worth "club" is $1 million in liquid financial assets. An investor with less than $1 million but more than $100,000 is considered to be "affluent", or perhaps even "sub-HNWI". The upper end of HNWI is around $5 million, at which point the client is then referred to as "very HNWI". More than $50 million in wealth classifies a person as "ultra HNWI".
HNWIs are in high demand by private wealth managers. The more money a person has, the more work it takes to maintain and preserve those assets. These individuals generally demand (and can justify) personalized services in investment management, estate planning, tax planning, and so on.
--
Re: Why this is all Happening
Hub
10UP
Mikey - there were plenty of heavy weight buyers at 420p and 430p as proven by the volume and sp.
So clearly based on a near term view - GKP's worth is perceived much higher than today's 350p.
Add to this the fact that those buying at 430's or 440's were not doing so for a small change transaction. They had a much higher exit price target than the 440p they were buying in at.
As CJ said - they were willing to buy up to $6.30+ and I suspect they'll continue to show interest at 370p, 380p, 390p and 400p+ again.
But if the sp is 340's or 330's - even better. They can enjoy lower top ups and gather more shares.
HUB
: Exxon 10K filing
blacksash
lowersharp,
And GKP have four PSC's, how much longer can the market ignore the fact that Exxon's army of lawyers would have scrutinised them down to the last detail? They are legal, they will stand as they are, just a matter of time. IMHO
Buy Re: Exxon 10K filing
lowersharp
16UP
There is no grey area.
From the filing:
"During 2011, production sharing contracts were negotiated with the regional government of Kurdistan."
"Exploration and production activities in the Kurdistan region of Iraq are governed by production sharing contracts negotiated with the regional government of Kurdistan in 2011. The exploration term is for five years with the possibility of two-year extensions. The production period is 20 years with the right to extend for five years."
"Were negotiated" past tense.
"are governed by" present tense.
Of course they are signed.
The negotiations have been completed and activities *are* governed by PSCs.
lsn
=============
ExxonMobil discloses Kurdistan plans
US supermajor ExxonMobil has disclosed its plans to explore for oil in Iraq's Kurdistan in the company's annual report, breaking months of silence over the investment that has outraged Baghdad.
News wires 27 February 2012 19:50 GMT
While the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in November trumpeted the deal for six exploration blocks, ExxonMobil – the first major oil company to invest in northern Iraq – had steadfastly declined to comment since.
The KRG said the production sharing contract with ExxonMobil was signed on 18 October last year.
"Exploration and production activities in the Kurdistan region of Iraq are governed by production-sharing contracts negotiated with the regional government of Kurdistan in 2011," said ExxonMobil's annual report, filed on 24 February.
"The exploration term is for five years with the possibility of two-year extensions. The production period is 20 years with the right to extend for five years."
ExxonMobil’s report did not go as far as to say the Kurdish negotiations had been finalised, Reuters reported.
The supermajor's foray into Kurdistan infuriated the central government, which has long held that all foreign oil deals signed with the KRG are illegal.
The central government initially threatened to cancel ExxonMobil's service contract for the giant West Qurna-1 oilfield in southern Iraq.
But at the end of January, Baghdad told ExxonMobil it could keep working at West Qurna provided it froze its plan with Kurdistan.
Industry sources say the company has no such intention and that it continues to press ahead quietly in Arbil, according to Reuters.
The central government, in any case, cannot take action against ExxonMobil over its Kurdistan block deal until Baghdad drafts a formal legal response, Iraqi oil officials have said.
The Ministry of Oil has, however, stripped ExxonMobil of its role as project leader for a multi-billion-dollar water injection scheme that is core to the development of Iraq's oilfields in the south. Iraqi officials said the move was not in retaliation for ExxonMobil's involvement with the KRG.
Otherwise, it is business as usual for ExxonMobil at West Qurna-1, where production has risen to about 390,000 barrels per day from 244,000 bpd when ExxonMobil and minority partner Shell signed up the contract in March 2010.
By the end of last year, the pair had spent $911 million on the project which targets output of 2.825 million bpd by 2017, a senior Iraqi oil official said this month. Baghdad had repaid the companies $470 million.
Iraq signed a series of deals with international oil firms such as ExxonMobil to boost its output capacity to 12 million bpd by 2017 from about 2.9 million bpd now. But it may eventually lower the target due to infrastructure constraints, according to Reuters.
Published: 27 February 2012 19:50 GMT | Last updated: 27 February 2012 19:50 GMT
====
08:01
In it to win it
badeli
24UP
I have posted several times recently trying to bolster the confidence of new and less experienced investors and feel so strongly about the current situation that I decided I should do the same again, albeit briefly. Most of us would admit to early naivety as investors - we thought we could get our timing right, could make quick gains on tips, beat the market etc. The trouble was that we sometimes did and felt so pleased with ourselves that we kept repeating our mistakes, conveniently forgetting all the times we failed and then wondering why we did not make any money over the medium-term. I for one was also spooked too easily and looking back remember with embarrassment the times I sold at the bottom when confidence in a share was at its lowest and then frantically bought back when confidence had returned but at a much higher level.
I learned after a while and became an investor rather than an excitable but very amateur trader and that has been the most significant factor in the change in my approach to buying and selling. I am too busy to research everything in detail and I do not have the professional background to understand all the technical issues surrounding oil exploration so I rely on a small number of trusted posters and other sources and make decisions based on fundamentals. I am a reasonably significant investor in GKP and have every confidence in my investment. Of course I still enjoy watching almost daily double figure gains and of course I have hated the last week but that's the price of being an investor - I am no longer ever tempted to sell when the fundamentals are improving by the month and I am quite happy to wait for the next, inevitable leg up. That's a lie, of course I am tempted to sell now and again, what I should have said is that I am now able to resist the temptation to sell!
If you are a keen amateur investor and are looking at a paper loss or a diminishing profit my advice is to remember why you invested and stay with it - I have no doubt that you will be rewarded and I will close by reminding all of us of the views expressed by our resident experts, namely that shares are continuing to be transferred from nervous PIs to HNWIs and institutional investors. Don't let them have yours!
=======
07:45
Take a chill pill guys
Milymog
40UP
Let's see what we know without any update
Goldman Sachs tell HNW clients to buy upto $6.5. Well that's about £4.06 .... Follow the trend and that's about a week away, could be sooner.
But why that price, well that's about 70% below what GS think is safe money for their prised clients !
Oh then Todd tells us through his so called unfriendly reporter that there is hostility in the market, your D right there is, everyone affiliated with most majors and nationals will be building voting rights.
We know we have a massive reserve book, soon to be made at least twice as big and with the OWC we could get the biggest of the lot.
Now does anyone think gkp will go for £4, a figure most oil companies pay for some shale reserves out back........ Smell the coffee, this is still. Y far the cheapest stock around and when I first, yes me used the term Golden Tickets I never realised just how heavy they were...
Any drops are opportunities to buy more for the hungry pack, we should think like them !
Have a great day all
Le Mog
====
Author Cash rich asset poor View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 07:33
Subject Seymour Pierce - Strategy Overview
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 36 times.
Message
Some interesting snippets from Seymour Pierce, especially valuing AB up to $720 million.
GKP listed a series of objectives in their 2011 interim results for their forward strategy
for the next two years. We feel it is important to analyse these in detail to determine
whether they are value accretive for shareholders, and whether failure to meet them
will result in any material downside.
1) Explore and appraise aggressively the Shaikan, Sheikh Adi and Ber Bahr blocks
in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq to prove up the resource base with increased
production to follow.
In our view, GKP’s core strategy will focus on fully appraising the Shaikan field to
ultimately ensure that maximum resources are re-classified to reserves, prior to any
potential farm out, placing or company sale. The company has benefited from a series
of upgrades since 2010 through a continued appraisal work post initial discovery.
The company currently has sufficient funds in the short term to appraise its assets. In
addition to the $134m cash position confirmed in the company’s interim results, GKP
undertook a $200m placing issuing 91m shares at 140p in September 2011,
underlining shareholder support for the company’s strategy. The funds will be
specifically distributed for the following:
• Completing the Front End Engineering and Design for the company's pipeline
capable of transporting a minimum of 440,000 bopd from the Shaikan field to
the existing Kirkuk-Ceyhan export pipeline
• Ordering of long lead items for the construction of the company's dedicated
pipeline, subject to necessary approvals
• Upgrading the Shaikan Extended Well Test facilities to increase existing
production from Shaikan-1 and 3 to 20,000 bopd
• Building additional testing and production facilities for Shaikan-2 and 4
capable of producing 20,000 bopd, following successful well tests at Shaikan-
2 and in anticipation of positive results from Shaikan-4
• Drilling of the second exploration well on the Sheikh Adi block
• Acquisition of 3D seismic data over the Ber Bahr block where the first
exploration well was spud in October 2011.
Nevertheless, it should be noted that Shaikan alone is potentially a multi-billion dollar
field which will require a capital commitment that exceeds GKP’s current, and in our
view, future capabilities. As such, we feel that the asset will either be significantly
farmed out or even fully sold once the company has appraised the asset to an extent
where it feels it has reach an appropriate valuation.
2) Complete the preparation of the Shaikan Field Development Plan for submission
and approval by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Kurdistan Regional
Government
The Shaikan appraisal programme is being completed in parallel with the ongoing
work on the Shaikan field development plan. This is a procedural requirement that is
necessary for the company to proceed with its operations in Kurdistan.
The plan includes pre-project economics and partner support, as well as the
procurement of other technical requirements to fully enable the company to carry out
its activities.
Given that the company has been active in the region since 2005, we do not expect
any issues to arise over its approval and merely regard it as a formality. Nevertheless,
failure to gain approval will limit GKP’s progress and subsequently be detrimental to
the company’s value.
3) Implement sufficient infrastructure to ramp up production from the Shaikan field
as well as improve existing facilities
GKP is in the process of upgrading its infrastructure at Shaikan to increase production
under the terms of its current licence to conduct an extended well test “EWT” at the
Shaikan 1 & 3 well. Production is forecast to ramp up to c.20,000bopd and is intended
for the export market, where the company can benefit from slightly discounted (due
to the oil being heavy and high in hydrogen sulphide) international price rather than
the domestic price.
The company has identified a route for a dedicated pipeline to connect the Shaikan
Field to the Kirkuk-Ceyhan export pipeline. GKP has completed a feasibility study on a
pipeline capable of transporting a minimum of 440,000bopd, which is being submitted
for necessary comments and approvals. Once the necessary approvals have been
obtained, Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) work and ordering of long lead
items will commence. There is currently no timeline for this process and no approvals
have yet been made - we assume that this will be a long term objective for the
company.
Due to the company’s substantial cash position (outlined above) we feel GKP is fully
capable of upgrading its EWT facility and building additional testing and production
facilities for Shaikan-2 & 4, and are confident the company will scale up production as
a result of this. However, whilst production from the EWT is substantial it is not
“commercial” production which is the point where the KRG and GKP’s interest falls to
51%. We therefore expect production to plateau at c.20,000bopd in the medium term.
4) Actively pursuing a move from AIM to a Premium Listing on the Official List of
the London Stock Exchange, subject to obtaining necessary approvals
We feel this proposal serves to address two key areas of the market’s view of GKP.
Firstly, that the company has a view to be acquired in the short to medium term - an
ongoing rumour that management have had to contend with on several occasions.
Secondly, that the company does not receive the necessary market exposure on AIM,
especially given the size of its operations.
It is clearly easier and cheaper to raise capital through placings on AIM than the Main
Board, and as such we were not surprised with GKP’s September placing prior to a full
listing. We also feel that moving to the official list will add further clout to the
company’s position in the market which in our view addresses the second issue.
Furthermore, this strategy suggests that the company will pursue a farm-out of its
Shaikan operations, as opposed to a company sale given that the acquisition of a Main
Board constituent presents additional challenges for the aquiree. In addition, it further
highlights management’s commitment to the company, an issue that has been
historically questioned.
5) Appointment to the Board of three additional high-calibre Non-Executive
Directors
We feel this objective is an extension of the company’s move to the official list. Since
the announcement the company has appointed two NEDs - Lord Charles Guthrie and
Mark Hanson – two experienced and complementary candidates. In line with GKP’s
strategy we would expect a further appointment, although given that the company
can already satisfy the UK Listing Authority’s requirements relating to NEDs on
admission to premium listing, we do not feel a further appointment or even non
appointment will have any impact on valuation.
6) The company has made a strategic decision to rationalize its asset portfolio and
is to seek a buyer for its 20% interest in the Akri-Bijeel block
GKP’s intention to sell its non-core interests so that it can focus on Shaikan has been
known for some time. This strategy will yield the funds required to further appraise
the field and to allow for a ramp up in production to supply the export market. We feel
that this approach reduces the chance of GKP returning to the market to raise
additional funds in the short term. The license currently contains one 2.6bnbbl
discovery and another drilling prospect with management estimating the possibility of
an 8bnbbl discovery. If we use a similar valuation to that applied to our risked net
asset exploration appraisal, we would value Akri-Bijeel as follows:
Therefore, using a range of valuations by flexing the recovery factor of the field, we
estimate that GKP’s interest in Akri-Bijeel could generate a consideration between
$200m and $720m. However, other factors such as GKP’s open desire to sell as well as
the ongoing geo-political factors (see below) associated with the asset may impact
any purchaser’s assessment.
The company maintains that it is selling its stake not because it is relatively small, but
because it is immaterial to the company compared with the exploration potential of its
Ber Bahr license and the appraisal of its Shaikan discovery.
GKP has just commenced the process to auction the stake and estimates that a deal
could be concluded in Q1 2012. In addition the company is confident of a quick sale
due to the high level of interest in the Kurdistan region from large oil companies.
=======
10:04
Re: Isn't it about time
golfguy31
31UP
I spoke with Anastasia on Monday....I asked her 'what happened to the monthly ops updates'?....she said GKP still plan to provide monthly updates, I said errr?...it's already been a month...she said 'I know, the last was released on 23rd Jan'.
Looking like the next day or so imo....probably SH4 OIP upgrade & increased flow rates as well.
If GKP move the P50 from 10.5bn to 13.5bn OIP then it'll add around 75p to the sp at 50% risk....could trade near to the recent highs on that news alone.
===
09:25
Re: Times HK bid speculation
The Times market report says yesterday's rise was due to speculation about an imminent bid at a £7 per share from Hong Kong.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Goldman Sachs prime clients told to buy upto $6.50...or 410p Apparently due to an imminent deal with a 70% premium attached.
Hang on a minute....that equates to £7
--
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/markets/article3335022.ece
Setting aside the shrill insistence in some quarters that other potential predators were circling Bowleven, the hot money instead flooded intoGulf Keystone Petroleum, 14¾p higher at 356¾p. Again, there was speculation of an imminent offer, pitched at a terrifically generous-sounding 700p a share, for the explorer focused on the Kurdish region of Iraq, purportedly from out of Hong Kong. Not for widows or orphans, this one.
--
Divewally
9UP
At some point a possible first public bid will be announced and act as the great catalyst to the "shock and awe" which will follow. We're waiting on the measuring of the quoted 'slide rule'.
"...I need to move on with my life please for my own sanity get it on the table." I think this is a thought shared by a lot of longs here PJM4GKP!!!!
But don't miss the point that as the clock ticks then our value INCREASES. Proving up is KEY to value and why we eagerly await forthcoming news due shortly. Eyes are upon us and proving up is an indicator to our true values in the end game.
Staying focussed on the fundamentals (especially in quiet periods of extreme volatility) will see that end game realised to it's FULL potential.
====
09:18
Re: Times HK bid speculation £7
Alibi 8
6UP
Could the £7 be an attempt to lower expectations so that the less enlightened start of think of £8 as a very generous offer? Incidentally I laughed at the use of the phrase "fantastically generous" to describe a £7 bid. Pure ignorance to come to that conclusion and suggests the writer looked only at the current SP and not at the full picture. Shallow journalism.
=
Jilted - £7 would get the ball rolling and place the cat amongst the pigeons.
I'd rather see a £7 bid than no bid.
As seen with COVE, once the first bid comes in the rest come out from their shadows.
Any rumours of bids will have all currently involved such as KRG and Exxon etc - very twitchy.
It only takes one private money fund to have a pop at GKP and game is alive.
Knowing what we do via contributors to this BB - banging in an offer of £7 subject to due diligence is relatively risk free is it not?
If TK says no - then we have a base marker that is officially 'out there'.
I get a feeling we are going to see more rumours coming in as surely that's all part of this game?
HUB
===
Author Fruit n Veg View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 10:12
Subject Re: The Times/ law- exxon oil and gas law View parent message
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 21 times.
Message
The key paragraph in this excellent summary is:
“Baghdad has banned ExxonMobil from its less lucrative fourth round of TSCs. As many of the more exciting fields for ExxonMobil have already been awarded in previous rounds, the move seems ****more calculated to save face**** for both ExxonMobil and the Federal Government rather than impose a severe sanction: ExxonMobil has, so far, kept its contract, and the Federal Government has retaliated. In reality, although Baghdad has maintained its “blacklist” policy; it has blacklisted ExxonMobil not from its major West Qurna Phase One oilfield, but from minor future investments which would likely be of far less interest than the Kurdistan PSCs. The result: the door has been moved further ajar for major new international investment in Kurdistan.”
What this tells us in hindsight is that it has always been right to disregard any statements from Iraqi politicians and judge them only by their actions.
Unfortunately, we learned this lesson belatedly. It is now clear that the market has been mistaken in its reactions to belligerent statements by figures such as Shahristani, who has only ever talked his own book and is now exposed as a loose cannon with dwindling fire-power.
Baghdad’s pragmatic and wholly political instinct for self-preservation is clearly seen in its reluctance to challenge Exxon’s existing commitments. Any action it might take against Exxon in relation to the 4th round is a token gesture only and need not concern the market. Politics is what Baghdad does best!
Exxon has played a clever hand by recognising Baghdad’s limited room for manoeuvre, yet has diplomatically not sought to rub Baghdad’s nose in the latter’s self-inflicted mess.
I think this marks game, set and match to Exxon over its Kurd contracts and Exxon will, as I always believed, continue to have a presence in both north and south. The fog over Kurdistan is fast lifting.
===
9. Chain of controlled undertakings through which the voting rights and/or the
financial instruments are effectively held, if applicable:
In the narrative below, the figures in [ ] indicate the amount of voting rights and the percentage held by each controlled undertaking where relevant.
Baillie Gifford & Co, a discretionary investment manager, is the parent undertaking of an investment management group.
Its wholly-owned subsidiary undertaking Baillie Gifford Overseas Limited [30,248,719; 3.54%] is also a discretionary investment manager.
Its wholly-owned subsidiary undertaking Baillie Gifford & Co Limited [8,588,419; 1.01%] is an OEIC Authorised Corporate Director and Unit Trust Manager which has delegated its discretionary investment management role to Baillie Gifford & Co.
========
Author he-who-dares View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 21:39
Subject
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 42 times.
Message
Okay,
settle yourself in and put your best slippers on. I've had a commute from Switzerland to home with my thoughts to myself.
I will start by letting you know that dirtydingus is in fact a close school friend of 25 years of mine whom has invested in GKP (along with a considerable number more friends) based on my bullishness and constant desire to lead pub discussions onto the subject over the last 2 years. Over email I had mentioned today I had kicked the hornet's nest on iii on the GKP board and caused a bit of an overnight debate. Being a member from a long way back he thought he'd take a look and then to his own musings threw a comment in which obviously won't go down as a Boris Becker at Wimbledon type initial assault on the GKP board.
But I like to be transparent as I don't like hidden agenda's on here - so though that would be fair to state. Dingus is someone I talk to about GKP and he has since invested. I consider his reasoning, intelligence and understanding of corporate finance to be impressive and so has been a good sounding board for me over the years. Having spent far too many years boozing and playing rugby in the front row with him at school, colts and club rugby I can also vouch that he would fit very well in at the Three Humps...
So - although a poor initial post, don't just discard people in one fell swoop. He can also be very sure CJ and I are not one and the same!
Moving on ....on my flight home tonight I was thinking largely about my comments regarding Chicago Jack yesterday. Indeed I have nothing against Chicago Jack, in fact I would go as far as to say he comes over as a very pleasant type of guy and by his posts I would go as far as to say something of a gentleman. However, I do appear to have some sort of issue with the mindless rampers who play on his and others every word without questioning the source of the accuracy of his information.
Now I hope CJ would be the first to concur, that anything posted on a chat board that cannot be substantiated without fact or evidence, or reasoned argument to persuade others of the claims should be taken as chat and nothing more. For one reason or another CJ often posts claims and information which can not be corroborated or without providing fact or evidence. The taking someone on a chat board as 100% genuine in this circumstance I believe is to be madness.
I can only assume that those that do this either have such little invested they really don't care and 'wish/hope' it comes true more than uses their sound judgement to analyse it. I am as per my net worth, heavily invested in this stock....I would never forgive myself for taking uncorroborated claims on a chat board at face value and it proving I was the mug.
So that's my stance. So I feel I should apologise to CJ for being a little rude yesterday, and to wheretoinvest who I originally repied to. it was OTT on my part, and consider my apology served.
So, what I would like to do is categorise the many types of poster on this board and detail the level of importance I place on their posts. I will only name names in the categories that are positive.
The De-Rampers.
Let's get them out of the way first..a total pain in the back side, unnecessary, and frankly would be much more welcomed if they could string a reasoned argument between the lot of them. The fact they return time and again when this stock has gone from single digit pennies to 450p in less than 3 years tells you everything you need to know. There is no deramping argument against a stock that performs like that......
The Information Gatherers
whether it be Mikey manning L2, spiky and the NAV calculator, or pathai with his knack of picking up bits and bobs - these are proper good solid lads of the board. They don't always get it right...but they are contributing 99/100 with good stuff. I learn a lot from these guys....and whenever a friend asks have I seen something on GKP or Iraq or Kurdistan in a paper and post me the link, you can be sure i've already seen and read it courtesy of the fantastic information gatherers on this board.
The Rampers / non-contributors / blind faithers
The majority on here (I will put myself in this bracket as a non-contributor) who go "boooooom" "yeeeehaaaa" when the share price goes up 5p....the ones that really need putting out of their misery and getting their lives back. Those that claim to be patient, but in reality are ridiculously impatient and would have sold out long ago if they didn't have the overriding fear that by doing that they will miss out on potentially the best opportunity they will ever have. There's no patience here, just desperate clinging to the dream. These are the people who give the board the reputation that it appears to warrant....and although telling people to never sell until TK sells, in all the hyper tension, frenzy, anxiety and impatience are the most like to snatch the £12 offer and run.
Again I class myself in the above category.
The Thinker / Deep Divers
Those few who take known facts, historical information, study the RNS's, presentations, everything about the company and then apply that wealth of knowledge to then conjure up theories and ideas of what might be happening behind the scenes.
These guys are genuine and ALWAYS caveat their posts with IMHO.....but their knowledge builds over time and they can link different pieces of knowledge back to other events and draw very good conclusions and present with strong arguments.
Scaramouche, Bonobo, GRH1, Gramacho, Hub's of this world.
Then there's the "Insiders"
Those that know what is going on from 'sources' but are unable to divulge too much information. These guys have made good calls in the past and receive legendary status and therefore are keenly followed.
The problem here is that they get one or two things right, and largely what they get wrong is forgotten. These guys should be acutely aware that you live by the sword, you die by the sword. You receive the praise when you get something right, but you should also therefore be chastised when you get something wrong.
To punish, as by beating. See synonyms at punish.
To criticize severely; rebuke.
If they are unable to substantiate their claims other than that they have contacts and 'know' then i'm afraid this is the only way we can judge them.
Chicago Jack, Spencer Freeman, NobleTrader, Sanddunes
I have no doubt that somehow, somewhere they are privy to information I am not - but at the same time they must realise they must be judged on the acute accuracy of their predictions. Sanddunes claimed not to sell our shares as we had been shafted last June...and that Chevron were taking us for £8......that has never happened and the validity of that statement cannot be considered eligible should that occur now. There would have been no way of knowing that back then with some level of authority.
Again - I am sure I will be told that it is insulting to put CJ in the same category as SF, Dunesy, and NobleTrader....BUT without supporting evidence of fact, I am afraid the brush is all the same...it is chat board 'insider knowledge' that I have no way of knowing is truthful or not. I should not and will not let myself listen to someone who cannot provide evidence or factual argument of their claims on a chat board. I am more than happy to meet them in person....but it is madness to do it on a chat board....with so much money at stake.
So my challenge to CJ as he does seem genuine (although how do I know?) would be to try and be more accurate in explaining what has led him to these assumptions, why those conclusions hold water, etc.....add some substance to the statements. That is not knocking him - that is asking him to be more open to how his theories are borne....and if he can't be, then i'm afraid for me I cannot count them....but that's just me.
I do understand that this board is currently whipped into a frenzy as there is an amazing sense of history in the making in the GKP story. However, I would like to see the board return to something of a discussion board. Senior posters such as Sacra, Hub, Gramacho putting out their thought provoking posts...and if you like it - give it a tick. If you read it and disagree on a point, or wish to challenge them in a line of thinking...make a post and add something to the board. If you agree and it has enabled you to consider something they have missed....make a post......lesser known posters often make points and they get lost and swallowed up in all the rubbish chatter and yeeehaaaa's or troll bashing.
On the quieter days let's raise some topics to debate and use the time constructively - and not look to knock people with a contrarian view. Ignore the de-rampers, they are only here in spades cos they know you'll reply....but take reasoned argument onboard and attempt to disprove someones argument using the knowledge you have of GKP and relevant factors...it will help everybodies understanding. If you cannot do this - don't post.
There should be no issue with going over old stuff. If you want to post and have nothing of value to say....go and find your favourite post of the last 12months and post that for newbies to have a read and say why...and how at the time it gave you confidence. - there have been new investors come in recently (I literally know of 30 friends and family invested in the last 6 months from my personal enthusiasm of this stock rubbing off on them). If we are really serious about holding and not being "shaikan" out of this stock, giving newer investors reason to be confident in a long-term hold is the best way you can go about it...instead of just ordering others not to be weak. I get numerous texts a day asking why the share price is going up...and why is it going down....If people I know could learn more through iii that would be a very positive thing.
there is of course one more category..and that is the BBBS category. Who needs to be acknowledged on his own - although there are a number of very knowledgeable geologist and petroleum guys who add to BBBS's posts. His posts have been incredibly influential on my long-term hold and accumulation in this stock. They are FACTUAL, well explained, pitched as well as one could hope for the layman, and nothing short of fascinating.....and the theories are backed up with strong argument and evidence. They really are fantastic.
And finally. Let's have less of the boot licking some posters. We are all adults here, and we are all sat behind a computer screen whereby we don't really know who and what we all are. They are not demigods on here.....some people get turned into "The LIfe of Brian" on here, and then there is pressure on them to live up to that billing....not healthy.
I will hopefully be meeting JonnyRoyale and MikeyA (Mikey you need to read your emails)....and will want to discuss how we improve the chat on this board and make it a good centre point for knowledge sharing of GKP...hopefully we can enable the new investors to stick with us - instead of acting like a bunch of redneck hillbillies who don't like outsiders.
Anyone wishing to join (it will be M6 north of Manchester way) is more than welcome and i'll post times and dates....if you would like to meet up further South I am happy to organise something nearer to home as well...Rutland / Leicestershire / Cambridgeshire way would be good for me for a second meet up, London always works as well.
Please, if any of you got to the bottom of this rambling - then I hope I haven't offended in any way shape or form. Let's hope this rambling is lost to a great RNS 7am tomorrow morning (i've normally given up on a good RNS coming by 7.01 Thursday mornings if nothings materialised).
Have a good evening,
HWD
====================
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