Taliban vows to retake Afghanistan-report

01 Feb 2012 23:41 Source: Reuters // Reuters * Grim assessment of U.S.-led war * Allegations anger pivotal player Pakistan * Taliban says no agreement on peace negotiation process (Recasts, adds excerpts from report) By Hamid Shalizi and Mirwais Harooni KABUL, Feb 1 (Reuters) - The Taliban, backed by Pakistan, remains confident despite a decade of NATO efforts that it will retake control of Afghanistan, NATO said in a new classified report that raises more questions about Afghanistan's future as foreign forces withdraw. "Taliban commanders, along with rank and file members, increasingly believe their control of Afghanistan is inevitable. Though the Taliban suffered severely in 2011, its strength, motivation, funding and tactical proficiency remains intact," according to an excerpt of the report, published by the Times of London and the BBC. "While they are weary of war, they see little hope for a negotiated peace. Despite numerous tactical setbacks, surrender is far from their collective mindset. For the moment, they believe that continuing the fight and expanding Taliban governance are their only viable courses of action," the published excerpts said. Lieutenant Colonel Jimmie Cummings, a spokesman for the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force, confirmed the existence of the document, but military officials downplayed it as a depiction of the views of thousands of Taliban detainees who were interviewed by NATO officials. "The classified document in question is a compilation of Taliban detainee opinions," Cummings said. "It's not an analysis, nor is it meant to be considered an analysis." Still, the published excerpts paint a troubling picture of the Afghan war more than 10 years after the Taliban government was toppled, and as foreign forces begin to go home in earnest. U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said on Wednesday the United States was aiming to complete its combat role in Afghanistan by mid- to late 2013, shifting to a training role. The report's findings - including assertions that the Taliban had not formally split from international extremists - could also reinforce the view of Taliban hard-liners that they should not negotiate with the United States and President Hamid Karzai's unpopular government while in a position of strength. Hours after the Times report, the Afghan Taliban said that no peace negotiation process had been agreed to with the international community, "particularly the Americans." Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said in a statement that before any negotiations, confidence-building measures must be completed, putting pressure on Washington to meet demands for the release of five Taliban in U.S. custody. The hard-line Islamist movement also said it had no plans to hold preliminary peace talks with Afghanistan's government in Saudi Arabia, dismissing media reports of talks in the kingdom. Britain's Kabul ambassador, William Patey, wrote on his Twitter feed that "if elements of the Taliban think that in 2015 they can take control of Afghanistan they will be in for a shock." He did not say if he was referring to the NATO report. "We really do believe that militarily we are making an impact on the Taliban," said Captain John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman. PAKISTAN LINK The published excerpts of the report also gave further indication of the Taliban's reliance on neighboring Pakistan, where elements of the Inter-Services Intelligence agency has long had links to the Taliban. "Reflections from detainees indicate that Pakistan's manipulation of Taliban senior leadership continues unabated. The Taliban themselves do not trust Pakistan, yet there is a widespread acceptance of the status quo in lieu of realistic alternatives," another excerpt published by the Times read. The report overshadowed a visit to Kabul by Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar designed to repair ties and raise the issue with Karzai of peace talks with the Taliban. "I can disregard this as a potentially strategic leak. ... This is old wine in an even older bottle," she told reporters, repeating Pakistan's denials it backs militant groups. Khar, whose visit was the first high-level meeting in months between officials from both countries, added the neighbours should stop blaming each other for strained cross-border ties. The Times said the "highly classified" report was put together by the U.S. military at Bagram air base, near Kabul, for top NATO officers last month. It was based on interrogations of more than 4,000 Taliban and al Qaeda detainees, it said. Kirby declined to comment on the specifics of the report, but did acknowledge "long-standing concerns about the ties between elements of the ISI and the Taliban. This is not a new notion." Large swathes of Afghanistan have been handed back to Afghan security forces, with the last foreign combat troops due to leave by the end of 2014. While some foreign soldiers will stay, likely to conduct counterterrorism operations, many Afghans doubt their security forces can stave off insurgents. NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu, speaking in Brussels, played down the implications and said a surge offensive had seen the Taliban suffer "tremendous setbacks." "We know that they have lost a lot of ground and a lot of leaders, and we also know that support for the Taliban is at an all-time low," she said. As of Jan. 1, 889 U.S. soldiers had been killed in a conflict that was launched after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and has drained almost half a trillion dollars from U.S. coffers. 'WRONG POLICIES' New accusations of Pakistani collusion with the Taliban could further strain ties between Western powers and Islamabad. Critics say Pakistan uses militants as proxies to counter the growing influence of India in Afghanistan. The belief that Pakistan supports the insurgents is widely held in Afghanistan. "It would be a mistake now for the international community to leave Afghanistan, and drop us in a dark ocean," said Afghan telecommunications worker Farid Ahmad Totakhil. Pakistan is reviewing ties with the United States, which have suffered a series of setbacks since a U.S. raid that killed Osama bin Laden on Pakistani soil in May last year humiliated Pakistan's powerful generals. A Nov. 26 cross-border NATO air attack that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers deepened the crisis, prompting Pakistan to close supply routes to NATO forces in Afghanistan. Pakistan is seen as critical to U.S. efforts to stabilise Afghanistan. Yet Islamabad has resisted U.S. pressure to go after insurgent groups like the Taliban, and argues Washington's approach overlooks complex realities on the ground. Pakistan says the United States should attempt to bring all militant groups into a peace process and fears a 2014 combat troop exit could be hasty, plunging the region into the kind of chaos seen after the Soviet exit in 1989. "They don't need any backing," Tariq Azim, of the Pakistani Senate's Defence Committee, told Reuters, referring to the Taliban. "Everybody knows that after 10 years, they (NATO) have not been able to control a single province in Afghanistan because of the wrong policies they have been following." The Taliban announced this month it would open a political office in Qatar to support possible reconciliation talks. There has been talk of efforts to hold separate talks in Saudi Arabia. U.S. lawmakers also pressed the Pentagon on Wednesday to step up measures to ensure Western soldiers are not attacked by Afghan forces or employees of security firms working with NATO. France said it would withdraw its troops completely by the end of 2013 after four of its soldiers were killed by a rogue Afghan soldier, the latest such "insider" attack. The U.S. Defense Department said that over 40 similar attacks on foreign personnel had taken place since mid ==================== An Islamist coup in the offing! By Nayyer Khan - Jan 31st, 2012 (No Comment) 21 Right-wing parties like PTI and PML-N with open alliance with politico-religious parties and/or secret liaisons or sympathy with radical Islamists groups, gaining power in Pakistan will only further pave the way to impending Islamic coup To be sure, not all news items are hair-raising or earth-shaking. Yet, according to the Bangladesh army, it foiled a coup attempt by retired and serving officers late last week which intelligence sources said was driven by a campaign to introduce Shariah (Islamic law) throughout the majority Muslim country. Well, no doubt, Bangladesh, like Pakistan, has a strong history of coups, with army generals running the South Asian nation for 15 years until the end of 1990. Intelligence officials had repeatedly warned that “fanatic” Islamist militants with links to the military may try to oust Sheikh Hasina, who took power in early 2009 and has since faced threats from Islamist and other radical groups. As the text goes: The Bangladesh army has said it has foiled a plot by some hard line officers to topple the Sheikh Hasina government and that the process to bring the culprits to justice has begun. “Specific information (evidence) has been unearthed that some officers in active military service have been involved in the conspiracy to topple the system of democratic governance through the army,” the spokesman said. “Recently, at the instigation of some of non-resident Bangladeshis, some serving as well as retired officers with extreme religious views have tried to create disorder in the army riding on the religious sentiments of other officers,” the spokesman said. The spokesman said the initial investigations found non-resident Bangladeshis (NRB) link to the plot and its central figure Maj Zia was an organizer of banned Islamist outfit Hizb-ut-Tahrir. The news, however, did not draw much public attention in Pakistan. That simply did not ring the alarm bells in the ears of those with some far vision if there were any really. Not surprisingly, last May the Pakistan authorities too faced a similar situation when one of the serving brigadiers, Ali Khan, and four majors, whose names were withheld, were arrested after they were found to have HT connections and for “inciting fellow officers for a mutiny” (The Express Tribune, July 25, 2011). According to a report published in The Express Tribune, prior to the arrest of these army officers, HT had been regularly distributing pamphlets and leaflets in middle and upper-middle class residential areas of large cities. In its pamphlets, HT specifically addressed the armed forces, urging military personnel and the general public, especially the youth, to make a concerted effort to get rid of the government, citing the example of Tunisia. The pamphlets also sought to utilize the public’s anti-American sentiments, inciting them against what it called the ‘pro-American’ generals who they said had engaged a ‘Muslim’ army in a war with their fellow brothers in the tribal areas at the behest of the United States (). After the arrest of serving army officers for their alleged HT links, the government also detained some office-bearers of the banned group. What, after all, is Hizb-ut-Tahrir? Banned throughout the Middle East, South Asia and Central Asia as well as in a few European states, ban has also been imposed on HT in countries like Bangladesh, Denmark, Germany, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Syria, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Yet, ostensibly, nonviolent in its methods, Hizb-ut-Tahrir al-Islami (The Party of Islamic Liberation) HT is a global organization that defies easy categorization. It is not engaged in traditional religious missionary work. And even though heavily influenced by the Leninist model, it is neither a conventional political party it avoids political participation nor a violent revolutionary organization or a terrorist group. The HT operates in the gray zone between politics, ideology, and violent action. Not just that HT is older than Al-Qaeda, its modus operandi is deemed rather more sophisticated, or perhaps subtle; hence admittedly dangerous when comparison is made. Instead of confronting the army in Muslim majority countries, it seeks to ride piggyback on it to seize control and establish an Islamic caliphate over there. As such, its tactics are similar to HIV (a virus that causes AIDS) which instead of provoking defense cells in blood just makes them its home to breed a culture. The HT rejects the modern political state. It disavows nationalism, democracy, capitalism, and socialism as concepts alien to Islam. Instead, the organization seeks to bring about a return to the Caliphate that ruled Muslims following the death of Prophet Muhammad under the four “righteous Caliphs.” (Taqiuddin an-Nabkhani, The Islamic State Lahore: Hizb-ut-Tahrir, 1962). The organization explicitly rejects democracy and favors shariah as the law of the land. It is left up to the caliph and his deputies to interpret and apply it and thereby solve all social, economic, and ethnic problems that the Ummah (Islamic community) may have. Arabic will be the state language. The role of women will be restricted to the home, though they will be allowed to liberally pursue education. The defense minister will be appointed by the caliph to prepare the people for and to wage war against non-believers, including the United States. Military conscription will be mandatory for all Muslim men over 15. (Tyler Rauert, “The Next Threat from Central Asia,” Journal of International Security Affairs 9 (Fall 2005), 28.) The scenario for broadening the Caliphate played out in HT literature involves one or more Islamic countries coming under the organization’s control, creating a base from which it will be able to convince others to join the fold — generating what is in essence a domino effect. The group seeks to take advantage of dispossessed populations to seize power in particular states such as those in Central Asia and Pakistan as a prelude to the establishment of a broader Caliphate, removing wayward Muslim regimes and, eventually, overthrowing non-Muslim ones as well. However, HT’s present abstention from direct violent action, particularly in Muslim-majority countries, is a function of the organization’s three stage strategy. It does not currently use violence because it views itself as being in the second phase of its strategy – the second phase of its imitation of the Prophet Mohammad. From HT’s point of view, the justification for non-violence lies in the example of the Prophet, who criticized the pagan leaders of Mecca, gathered followers around him, and initially resisted the use of force to establish the Islamic state (Karagiannis and McCauley, “Hizb-ut-Tahrir al-Islami,” 325). Even if HT as an organization does not adopt violence as a means to achieve its goals, another source of concern is that the group may radicalize members who then go on in their individual capacities to conduct violent acts. Scholar Zeyno Baran perhaps put it best when she said that HT’s activities involve “more than mere expression of opinion but less than terrorism.” She famously asserted, “HT is not itself a terrorist organization, but it can usefully be thought of as a conveyor belt for terrorists.” Shiv Malik points out that Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, two major al-Qaeda figures, both had HT ties. Moreover, British intelligence officials discovered a cache of HT literature in the home of Omar Sharif, the Briton who attempted to blow himself up in a Tel Aviv bar in 2003 (Caryl, “Reality Check: The Party’s Not Over”). Global Presence For many analysts, HT is the most important Islamist group in Central Asia. It is certainly the largest and best-organized. (“Central Asia: Islamists in Prison,” International Crisis Group Asia Briefing number 97, March 15, 2009, 3.) Because the group operates clandestinely in most parts of the world, its global membership numbers are unknown. South and Southeast Asia are also strongholds of HT activism. The organization claims that it has recruited “tens of thousands” of members in Indonesia (Ahmed and Stuart, Hizb-ut-Tahrir: Ideology and Strategy, 55). Confidently the group enjoys unstinted support of a strong hand behind, aside from other areas, in Syria, Iraq, Turkey, Palestine, Lebanon, Egypt, Tunisia, Pakistan, US, Canada, UK, Russia, and Ukraine. Clashes with the authorities The Hizb had a busy year in 2009. It openly and actively participated in public debates and conferences in the UK, the USA and Canada (See Feldman, “Islamic extremists hold open conference in Chicago,” 7; See also “Open House with Hizb ut-Tahrir”). Its annual conference in the Palestinian Territories, however, was blocked by the Palestinian Authority (Palestinian Centre for Human Rights Press Release, “PCHR condemns ban on Hizb-Ut-Tahreer peaceful conference in Ramallah,” July 5, 2009 . Elsewhere in the Levant it was reported that HT joined forces with the Lebanese branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, and Hezbollah to oppose attempts to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict (Muslim World News [accessed 22 January 2010] English translation of “Meeting of Islamist leaders in Beirut to discuss ‘the ways to oppose the forthcoming American plan for settlement,’” Now Lebanon, August 31, 2009 available. The organization also had several run-ins with the authorities around the world in 2009. The HT members continued to be arrested in large numbers throughout Central Asia in 2009 and in October, three suspected Hizb ut-Tahrir activists were detained in the Simferopol district of Ukraine’s Autonomous Republic of Crimea (Jane’s, Hizb-ut-Tahrir). Approximately 200 alleged HT members were arrested in a wide-ranging counterterrorism operation across 23 provinces in Turkey in July 2009 (“Turkey detains ‘pan-Islamists,’” Al-Jazeera (Doha), July 24, 2009; See also Lale Saribrahimoglu, “Turkish Counter-Terror Police Allege Hizb ut-Tahrir Link with Ergenekon,” Jamestown Foundation, Eurasia Daily Monitor 6, is. 147, July 31, 2009). Turkish authorities initially claimed that two of the suspects have continuing contact with military officers suspected of involvement in the Ergenekon coup plot but no further information or evidence of the connection has been released (Jane’s, Hizb ut-Tahrir). Thirty-five HT members and supporters, including a nuclear scientist, were arrested on October 17, 2009 in Pakistan under anti-terrorism legislation (“35 held activists of banned outfit booked under ATA,” The News (Pakistan), October 18, 2009, http://www.thenews.com.pk/updates.asp?id=89380) while eight more alleged members were arrested in Karachi on March 8, 2010. (“8 Hizb-ut-Tahrir suspects arrested in Karachi,” Central Asia Online available. The HT also protested the Government of Pakistan’s counterinsurgency offensive in the Swat Valley (Ahmed and Stuart, Hizb ut-Tahrir: Ideology and Strategy, 56). Thirty HT members were arrested in September 2009 in Bangladesh (Ibid) and the group was banned in the country a month later (“Bangladesh Islamist group banned,” BBC, October 23, 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8321329.stm). However, the group showed resilience when it organized a demonstration in February 2010 in Dhaka calling for the removal of the current government (“Hizb ut-Tahrir Bangladesh: Demonstration calling for the removal of Sheikh Hasina and her government. [accessed 11 March 2010]). Meanwhile, arrests of alleged HT members continue to be regular occurrences throughout Central Asia. (See, for example, “12 Hizb ut-Tahrir members arrested in Tajikistan,” Central Asia Online, available at http://www.centralasiaonline.com/cocoon/caii/xhtml/en_GB/newsbriefs/caii/newsbriefs/2010/02/17/newsbrief-03 Snake in the grass When we talk about Islamic supremacist and militants in Pakistan, one’s mind always goes to the Taliban who are on the ropes by the army in one corner of the country. However, most are totally unaware of the real danger that is breathing down the country’s neck and which is present right within. This is a fact that there is, practically, no difference in the indoctrination of Islamic outfits and the Pakistan Army. Instead of stressing nationalism, as in the case of great professional armies of the world including those of the USA, China and India, the motivational force of the Pakistan army stipulated in the state’s policy is the Islamic notion of Jihad. One who has seen former army generals of the likes of Aslam Beg, Hameed Gul, Asad Durani and Javed Nasir speaking to the media, one finds it difficult to see difference between their views and those of Islamic Jihadists. They are all retired generals who are free to speak their minds now. Who knows how many like them are still serving in the higher or middle cadres of the army. If this is true then one cannot know how deep ideological inroads have been made by HT in the army itself. Pakistan is the most important state for organizations like HT because it is the only nuclear state in the Islamic world. By gaining control over Pakistan, the Islamists can be in control of its nukes too which can serve as a key to their global agenda. There are instances that during its counter-insurgency operations many personnel of the Pakistan army thought that they were fighting against their own Muslims brothers at the behest of “infidels”. In the armed clashes between the Pakistan army and the Taliban both sides raise the slogan of “Allah Ho Akbar”. The Pakistan Army is at present fighting the Taliban, halfheartedly it may though. However, it maintains good relationship with the anti-India Islamic outfits based in Punjab. The ideological alliance between the two is strong that the dividing line becomes too fine to be visible. In these conditions it is not difficult for HT to infiltrate in the army. Pakistan’s analogy and contrast with Bangladesh Bangladesh is slowly becoming an attractive haven for international terrorist groups, including Al Qaida. Pakistani groups such as the Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) that are affiliated with Al Qaida reportedly have a presence in the country. Three Lashkar operatives were arrested last year from a madrassa in Chittagong, Bangladesh’s main seaport and second-largest city. Rogue elements from within Pakistan’s intelligence agency reportedly provided the support structure for Lashkar and other terror groups to operate in Bangladesh. Following increased security and counter-terrorist operations in Southeast Asia, Jemaah Islamiya leader and alleged mastermind of the 2002 Bali bombings that killed 202 people, Hambali, planned on shifting his operatives to Bangladesh. In fact Hambali was on his way to Bangladesh when he was arrested in Thailand in August 2003. This situation prompted Sheikh Hasina’s government to take stern action against Islamists such as: • Top leadership of Jamaat-e-Islami – a Pakistani-tied Islamist party which seeks to impose Shariah – was arrested in connection with war crimes of 1971. • A ban has been imposed on the books of Maulana Maudoodi – a leading pioneer of Islamic revivalism in South Asia under Ikhwan al-Muslimeen. • In July 2010 Bangladesh’s Supreme Court delivered a landmark judgment overturning a 1979 constitutional amendment legitimizing military rule and approving the participation of religious parties in politics. “Secularism will again be the cornerstone of our constitution,” said Law Minister Shafiq Ahmed. “Islamic parties cannot use religion in politics anymore.” The country’s highest court also ruled the use of religious fatwas (edicts) to meet punishment “illegal and without legal authority.” • Earlier last year, police nabbed Mohiuddin Ahmed and Syed Golam Mawla, top leaders of Hizb ut-Tahrir. Both Ahmed and Mawla are professors at the prestigious Dhaka University and Ahmed is the chief coordinator of HT in Bangladesh. The arrests followed the government’s ban of the HT in October 2009. • The “Islamic” words added in Bangladesh’s constitution by its two former army dictators have been removed and BD is againconstitutionally a secular democracy. In contrast, since its inception, the cornerstone of Pakistan’s state policy has been religion. In that sense, today the assertion of Islamists to impose Shariah in the country is not all that unfounded. The founding and succeeding political leadership of Pakistan and top brass of army – who were Islamists in their rhetoric and westernized in their personal lives – had failed to understand that over-emphasis on religion in their official communication and overdosing of people with religious and Jihadi sentiments will one day make the real Islamists to take over the country by replacing the pseudo-fellows. Lesson for Pakistanis Despite the crackdown the Bangladesh government still faces challenges from the Islamic radicals and violent extremists who are out to destabilize the country’s democratic institutions and establish Shariah. The former government of the Bangladesh right wing National Party (BNP) included Islamist parties such as the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and the Islami Oikya Jote (Islamic Unity Front). This situation helped in expanding its influence of the Islamic radicals in Bangladesh and created space for terrorist groups to operate in the country with relative impunity. The Jamaat-e-Islami, an important partner in the former BNP coalition government, has ties with radical extremist group Jamaat-ul-Mujahedin Bangladesh (JMB) that seeks to establish a Taliban-style government in Bangladesh and is believed to be behind the spate of bombings across Bangladesh in 2005 that targeted high-profile judges, journalists, and politicians. The current crisis unfolding in Bangladesh must act as an early warning signal for Pakistan. It is a dark glimmer of what groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and the Jamaat-e-Islami do once they become part of governments. The advocates of allowing Islamist parties to enter the democratic process must take notice: groups such as the MMA misuse their authority and dangerously push for greater powers and privileges which allow them to try and destroy democracy from within. Greater political responsibilities aren’t dissuading them from trying to violently implement Shariah; they only embolden them. At the very least, recent developments in Bangladesh suggest that any serious discussion of counterterrorism strategy must include the secularization of the state itself. The rightwing parties like PTI and PML-N with open alliance with politico-religious parties and/or secret liaisons or sympathy with radical Islamists groups, gaining power in Pakistan will only further pave way to impending Islamic coup in the country. No denying the fact that there are always repercussions as a reflection of an eventuality of things. Unless Pakistan changes its course from an Islamic ideological state to a modern secular state, the nation should get ready for the country’s ultimate transformation into a Caliphate. The writer’s areas of interest are history, religion and cross-cultural conflicts. =====================