Taq Taq Operating Co (joint owned by Genel/Sinopec aka Addax).
from -
http://www.ttopco.com/
Latest Events
* Crude oil export from Taq Taq Oilfield commenced on 4 March 2011
* TT-12 development well was successfully completed and tested in May 2011. The well flowed at an aggregate of 49,196 bbls/day without upper Shiranish being acidized. (so all news is current on the website and at least within the last 12 weeks approx and perhaps much more recent).
* TT-13 development well was be spudded on 27 April 2011.
* The production capacity is planned to be increased to 120,000 BOPD.
* FEED Studies for Taq Taq - Fish Khabur Pipeline project is under process. (Here it is in Black and White - the longest pipeline route !!!).
* TTOPCO has extended its offices in Ankara.
* 10,000 trees were planted in and around Taq Taq leaded by TTOPCO Management.
Kewa Chirmila seismic data was reprocessed within the light of new technology.
* The construction of the Master Plan Project in Taq Taq Oilfield works to commence in 3rd Quarter 2011.
--------------------
All this in context of yesterdays reported tussle for control/buy-out of Genel is ongoing by Vallares and Chinas Poly Energy.
And the pipeline is the MOST interesting of all - ie FEED studies from TaqTaq right up to Fish Khabur (which is where the Tawke field enters the same facility). So No mention of any other route at all where they previously mentioned going across the much, much shorter, least expensive and adajcent route to Kirkuk with a pipeline.
You WOULD NOT build the MUCH LONGER and EXPENSIVE route pipeline all the way to the top of the county if you were just solely going to pump 120,000 bopd capacity from TaqTaq when there is much closer access and capacity nearby.
Afren were indeed correct (reported by a poster at their presentation) they apparently said that the Chinese had planned a pipeline which would take in Afrens BardaRash block, Shaikan and 1-2 others.
So China looking to gain full control of the 120,000 bopd planned production of Taq Taq with Poly Energy saying they will up their bid for Genel and imporatntly the pipeline would go go right past Shaikan - What else might the chinese have in mind as 120,000 bopd is a mere drop in the ocean to them !
TaqTaq to FishKabour at least 200km.
TaqTaq to Kirkuk at circa 50km
FEED Studies for Taq Taq - Fish Khabur Pipeline project is under process.
Choinese going the long route past Shaikan, Barda Rash, close to Akri-Bijeel block and Hunts block.
Page 47 - pipeline routes.
http://www.westernzagros.com/investors/documents/2011June9-10StifelNicolausEnergyConferencePresentation.pdf
===
Seems the Chinese have a long term plan, and that plan does involve us. We know how deep their pockets can be, and with a growth rate of an extra 1 million cars on the road a month, they know they need to secure large oil reserves for the long game ahead. Sure many majors would like to snap us up, but we have already seen with Tony and his city "boys", what happens when they go against the truly big hitters.
Looks like we now have a possible insight to the long term plan, and how to get the oil to market away from any troubled areas. Also it was known that as the oil majors in the south get their boosted S/W supply for well injection, (plans are well on target.. please take my word for it), they will increase production which will load up the existing pipelines
It proves one thing for sure, we now know of someone who will bid. Although they wont be the only ones they may prove to be the last dancing with Todd when the music stops. What an excellent opportunity for investors at these cracking prices and for larger holders who stand to make many multiplies on the current price. I see from the many smaller trades that many investors like myself are still topping up as funds allow. With the oil laws starting to be discussed and good upside looming I dont know of any other stock with such potential.
As always hold on to those truly golden tickets.
===
Another 6 Companies Added to Iraq’s 4th Energy Auction
Posted on 07 September 2011. Tags: 4th round oil licences, China, Dragon, dubai, Glencore, Gulfsands, Romania, Romgaz, Switzerland, Vitol, Zhenhua Oil
Reuters reports that Iraq has approved six more energy companies to participate in its 4th energy auction, raising the number of pre-qualified bidders to 46.
“We have six companies that were not qualified first, but after reviewing their information, we asked them to submit further documents to support their position. We have decided to qualify them after they offered the required documents,” Abdul-Mahdy al-Ameedi, director of the oil ministry’s contracts and licensing directorate, told the agency.
Ameedi said the six new companies were: Dubai-based oil explorer Dragon Oil Plc , Glencore International Plc , Gulfsands Petroleum Plc , China’s Zhenhua Oil, Vitol Holding BV and Romania’s Romgaz.
The other 40 companies are listed here.
The Oil Ministry has excluded U.S oil company Hess Corp because the company signed deals with Iraq’s northern Kurdish region.
The auction for 12 new exploration blocs, scheduled for late January, is expected to add 29 trillion cubic feet of gas and 10 billion barrels of oil to Iraqi reserves. Iraq will meet with executives from the energy companies at a roadshow on 11th September in Amman, Jordan and present a data package with initial tender protocols to the companies on 12th Sept.
(Source: Reuters)
====
14:51 Nav Calculation ! SpikeyDT
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$2 billion (approx 180p a share) is just a fraction of what GKP is worth even now during block appraisal stage.
With O&G law now drafted and approved by Cabinet (haven't seen the text) and now passed over to Iraqi Parliament MPs to debate approve then it is only a matter of time before KRG licenses fall under O&G law are hence legitimised.
The problem with any approach at current time is that even a low ball bid (say 400p) is miles away from current SP 130p or so and bidder will be accused of being insane (to offer a 300% premium) by media and others who don't understand GKP and its intrinsic value. GKP need to get SP above 200p ASAP before soliciting serious bidders.
Whilst all the politicking above is happening then GKP need to continue to out the value in these blocks by getting on with
(i) the Shaikan appraisal programme in order to get a field development plan including gas export submitted and approved,
(ii) Behr Bahr well to be spudded/drilled and tested
(iii) need another CPR by recognised Consultant on Shaikan/Sheikh Adi
(iv) need a bump up in sustainable export oil volumes coupled with a open and proven payment mechanism in place
(v) TKI shares (5% ring fence) to revert back to GKP ownership once the Excaliber claim is put to bed
(vi) results of Bekme (Akri Bijeel) drill to be revealed.
I see at least another 3 to 6 months before a low ball bid is launched which may get approval if north of 400p or $5 billion (many IIs/PIs would consider biting) and failing that then as (i) to (vi) above are ticked off then the bid price will increase to the 700p-1000p levels which may be a cash offer (semi NOC) or a mix of cash/paper if a IOC is involved.
The 4 blocks together (Shaikan, Sheihk Adi, Behr Bahr and Akri Bijeel) could contain upwards of 50 billion bbls in place with > 15 bbls recoverable and > 3 billion on a net entitlement basis @ $6/bbl. So IOC/Semi-NOC bid of 700p or so if fine by me.
see this excellently put together NAV calculator too for help is understanding GKP (assuming politics are all OK)
http://www.navcalculator.com/GKP_NAV.php
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Glencore, Vitol set to bid for Iraq oil fields
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/09/08/iraq-oil-glencore-idUKL5E7K82AW20110908
By Daniel Fineren
(Reuters) - The upstream growth plans of the world's two biggest oil trading companies took a big step forward on Thursday as Iraq pre-qualified Glencore and Vitol to bid for billions of barrels of oil exploration rights next January.
The Iraqi oil ministry confirmed on Thursday a Reuters report late on Wednesday that the Swiss-based commodity trading giants, both with big upstream expansion plans, are among six new companies pre-qualified bidders for 12 exploration blocs which expected to add 10 billion barrels to Iraqi reserves.
The world's biggest oil explorers have been queuing up to tap Iraq's vast and largely underdeveloped oil fields, with its huge reserves offsetting fears over security and infrastructure challenges in a country crippled by years of war.
Although few expect Iraq to meet its target of increasing its production capacity from under 3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2011 to a Saudi-Arabia-rivalling 12 million bpd in 2017, there are now 46 companies vying for the licenses to try.
Glencore has equity stakes in oil and gas production sharing contracts offshore Equatorial Guinea, West Africa with the first expected to start producing early next year and peak at 50,000 bpd, according to the company website.
Glencore declined to comment on its inclusion on the Iraq bidding list, while Vitol was unavailable for comment.
Unlisted Vitol has exploration and production assets in the Former Soviet Union, Southeast Asia and West Africa but its net production is only just over 8,000 bpd, according to its website.
Earlier this week Iraq's Oil Ministry excluded Hess Corp from competing in its fourth energy licensing round because the U.S. oil firm signed deals with Iraq's northern Kurdish region -- agreements Baghdad deems illegal.
The Iraqi government has also now accepted Dubai-based Dragon Oil Plc , Britain's Gulfsands Petroleum Plc , China's Zhenhua Oil, and Romania's Romgaz as potential bidders for the next oil round.
Shares in Glencore , which have fallen since it listed in London in May, rose more than 6.5 percent on Thursday morning after energy investment First Reserve said late on Wednesday it would buy more Glencore stock.
(Additional reporting by Eric Onstad)
============
LISTED OPERATORS / PARTNERS (as of August 2011(:
Addax (Sinopec)
Afren
DNO
Crescent Petroleum
Dana Gas
Gas Plus Khalakan
Genel Enerji
General Exploration Partners (Aspect 66.5%, Shamaran Petroleum 33.5%)
Groundstar Ressources
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKL)
Heritage Oil
Hess
HKN Energy
HOME (Hunt Oil Middle East Limited)
Kurdistan Exploration and Production Company (KEPCO)
Korean National Oil Company (KNOC)
Komet Group SA
Longford Energy Inc. (Forbes & Manhattan)
Marathon Oil
MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas PLC (Kalegran Limited)
Murphy Central Duhok Oil Co.
Niko Resources
Norbest Limited
North Oil Company
Oil Search Iraq Limited (OSIL)
OMV Petroleum Exploration GMBH
Perenco
Petoil
Petroceltic Int.
Prime Natural Resources JV (Hawler Energy)
Reliance Industries Limited
Shakal Production (Prime Natural Resources JV)
ShaMaran Petroleum
Sterling Energy
Talisman Energy
TTOPCO (JV between Addax (Sinopec) and Genel)
UI Energy
Vast Exploration
Western Zagros Resources (WZR)
====
13:14 Re: What news is coming next week? dirtyharry1973 3
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There's no smoke without fire imo. First we had the press saying the company were up for sale at £1.4 billion, then there was the beauty parade, TK then said the company wasn't for sale but didn't mention part of it being sold, then TH enters Kurdistan and the press link him with GKP. TH has £2.2 billion to spend on further assets. Could this be the BIR for Shaikan? Imagine a nameLike that on board in Shaikan. It's dangerous to make predictions but something is cooking.
===
Fri 21:35 FT-Bid rumours saw Gulf Keystone Petrole... SpikeyDT 15
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September 9, 2011 6:46 pm
Small caps: Explorers lead the way
By Neil Hume and Bryce Elder
Bid rumours saw Gulf Keystone Petroleum rise 4.5 per cent to 156¾p,
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/04f10f46-db06-11e0-bbf4-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1XUPtsn7T
==============
Fri 18:55 No Ammo Left bonobo77 57
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I note contributions from a 'newbie' named Hulkster.
I also note challenges to said poster to furnish us with detailed and compelling analysis of why GKP does not represent a good investment.
I don't expect a reply of any substance.
Why?
Because the derampers have run out of ammo.
Sure, there are risks associated with this investment. But a good proportion of us have been aware of these risks for some considerable time and, if anything, the major risks are diminishing by the day now.
We certainly don't need posters to remind us that an oil and gas law has yet to be formalised by a governmental consensus.
We don't need reminding every 5 minutes about every 10pt drop in the DOW/FTSE.
We know all about Excalibur's claim and the judge's dim view of it, thanks.
And Todd's divorce, and his love of certain forms of one-on-one entertainment, will have no bearing on the destiny of our billions of barrels of oil.
Of course, we've been saying the above all year in response to the continued barbs. But perhaps it has taken the TH/Genel deal to throw our bullish position into formal, sharp and inarguable relief.
TH, Rothschild & Co. do not share the derampers concerns over the O&G law. They have staked billions of theirs and other people's money on it.
TH, Rothschild & Co. did not share the derampers concerns over prevailing market sentiment when they laid down their cash and planted their flag firmly in Kurdistan. The fact that larger all-cash offers were turned down by Mehmet Sepil also points to a belief in some considerable upside from here.
And you think investors/acquisitors will be put off making an approach for GKP because of Todd's private life? What's more off-putting: a lap dance and a marriage break-up ... or an FSA conviction for market abuse? Best read this and ask TH, because he was not deterred from paying billions to partner with this man:
http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pages/Library/Communication/PR/2010/028.shtml
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00:12 Vallares Legal Team and GKP's destiny peakyblack 26
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Good Morning
Just got back from my hols and have been digesting the weeks events. Fantastic, why is the share price so low!
TH's and Rothy's top end legal team will have pored over the contracts and constitution and will have found them water tight prior to investing in the region. Anyone government trying to mess with these contracts will now have to face the absolute heavyweights of the legal profession
The Kurds have put their foot down aggresively (with Iraqiya behind them) and rightly so to get Maliki to honour the agreements made last year in the government formation.It is now up to Maliki whether he wants to continue running the coalition or be ousted and Iraq to have wasted the last year(s). Sharisthani is going to need to back up without doubt. It says a lot about his oil ministry that they tried to pull a fast one with their oil law. I really didn't expect them to be that lame on the process and I've lost a lot of respect for his centralist ideologies as a result of this tactic
The KRG are ready with their partners to ramp up production over the next 18 months if Iraq want the huge revenues that they can generate. The time for face saving is gone. The people of Iraq want to see the ramp up and resultant benefits now, not when their useless political elite decide is right
On GKP, I think we will be in play imminently. We have huge discoveries almost proved up and massive upside in Ber Bahr. If the price is right the poor chinese 'non specified' company that got underbid (lol) by Vallares and others may be ready to pay through the nose for the existing massive discoveries and the possibilities at Ber Bahr, whether drilled or not. There is a price for everything and the NOC's can sit on the assets (until Baghdad come round be it for the benefit of their people or through the international courts) as future energy banks in what is fast being recognised (thank you Vallares) as the last easily accessible oil resource on our dear planet.
Glad to see all the TA trading crew have been exposed as the 50:50 BS merchants they are. I only hope that their presence on the board hasn't caused the long termers to have sold down prematurely, that F4T monkey being the worst by far. I've said it before, TA when there is news flow is BS and GKP is all about the news.
Good luck all investors, it's good to have Kurdistan as the hottest topic in oil at last
============
Fri 23:23 Kurd Oil Exports Reducing: DNO reiterate Push2Gush 7
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DNO had already stated they were cutting production due to well monitoring etc, sure there may be more than that behind the reason to turn the valves back a little but Shari looks for any reason to poke the fire too, maybe shari should stick to changing light bulbs, Below as per the DNO RNS at beginning of this month.
http://hugin.info/36/R/1543652/472912.pdf
Additional third party crude oil was
delivered and exported via the DNO operated facilities at Fishkabour at an average rate of 12,087
bopd, bringing the overall exported rate through these facilities to 76,232 bopd in July.
Gross production at Tawke is temporary reduced to around 50,000 bopd for reservoir monitoring
activities. The average gross production for August is expected to be around 53,000 bopd
============
Glencore have qualified for the 4th licensing round in southern Iraq.
http://www.investorsiraq.com/showthread.php?162308-Iraq-agrees-to-offer-to-larger-companies-for-oil-trade&p=1095232#post1095232
Hayward is a Glencore director and Rothschild has serious links to Glencore.
This must be the first time the Iraq government have accepted potential investment in the South from individuals who are invested in the North. Hess was banned from the South after they invested in the North.
Is this a sign that Shahristani is lightening up......
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11:48 Nathaniel Rothschild HawkFlight 5
The Rothschild family is hugely influential and having them on board in Kurdistan is very positive. It's unlikely that the four hugely successful Vallares founders went into Iraq without being given assurances over the Oil Law. Shahristani can make as much noise as he wants but eventually he is not going to get his own way this time.
Here is a very interesting piece on the Rothschild family. It's quite amazing and I would urge you all to read it.
http://conspiracytheoryone.blogspot.com/2011/09/rothschild-family.html
Here is a snippet:
Over more than two centuries,[13][14] the Rothschild family has frequently been the target of conspiracy theories.[49][50][51] These theories take differing forms, such as claiming that the family belongs to the Illuminati,[52] controls the world's wealth and financial institutions,[53][54] or encouraged wars between governments. Discussing this and similar views, the historian Niall Ferguson wrote: "As we have seen, however, wars tended to hit the price of existing bonds by increasing the risk that a debtor state would fail to meet its interest payments in the event of defeat and losses of territory. By the middle of the 19th century, the Rothschilds had evolved from traders into fund managers, carefully tending to their own vast portfolio of government bonds. Now having made their money, they stood to lose more than they gained from conflict. The Rothschilds had decided the outcome of the Napoleonic Wars by putting their financial weight behind Britain. Now they would sit on the sidelines."[55]
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Saturday, 10 September 2011, 09:13 GMT
Maliki's Carbon Law and fragile coalition
http://www.kurdishglobe.net/display-article.html?id=152817A76018731889CF3BB1657E9829
An engineer monitors operations at an oilfield in Kurdistan in this file photo from May 30, 2009.
Globe Editorial
By Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel
Oil has proven to be the paradoxical treasure and curse of the Mesopotamian plains. With the third largest oil reserves in the world, Iraq has the potential to become one of the most solid and prosperous economies in the world, and bring with it a high standard of living for its people.
However, the gift of nature has seen it empower and finance brutal dictatorial regimes and facilitate a centralization of power that has been used to forcefully bind Iraq?s disparate social mosaic. Whoever controlled oil had the keys to the gates of Iraq. In this light, the Sunnis used their control of oil revenues to underpin their power and influence.
Kurdistan was severely affected by policies of exclusion and systematic negligence that saw a limited amount of its legitimate portion of Iraq?s oil revenues spent on infrastructure. Free from the clutches of dictatorship, the Kurds were able to progress from a standing start by building new roads, hospitals, universities and other facilities.
Given a unique chance to shape the new Iraq, Kurds and Sxxxxx were keen to leave their imprint on the Iraqi oil sector. Ironically, while Sunnis used oil to consolidate power, the majority of Iraq?s oil wealth is in the Kurdish and Sxxxxx regions, one of the contributing factors to a sense of Sunni despair in post-Saddam Iraq.
Sharing of the pie
Iraq has had a number of significant political handicaps to overcome as it has stumbled on the transitional path to democracy. The format of a new hydrocarbon oil law has proved the most strenuous of laws to agree upon.
The sharing of the Iraqi pie among a number of diverse and embittered groups has had ramifications in a number of spheres, but none more so than in the oil law that has come to epitomize the difficult challenge of keeping all sides happy.
Striking concord on the law oil law has implications on a number of other thorny issues plaguing Iraq, such as federalism, balance of power and status of disputed territories
More than four years since the original draft was rejected amid a highly charged and animated Parliament, the task of formulating a draft that would appease all parties appears as elusive as ever.
Kurdish rebuke of new law
Any hope for ratification of the new oil draft that was passed by the Iraqi cabinet and submitted to Parliament, were quickly dashed as the presidency of the Kurdistan Region condemned efforts to usher the new draft in Parliament.
Discussions around the oil law continue to place Kurdistan and Baghdad at loggerheads with the Kurds, denouncing the current draft as contradicting the principles of the Constitution.
Baghdad has refused to relinquish its historic grip on the oil industry while the Kurds are keen to explore and develop their immense hydrocarbon potential. According to the Iraqi Constitution, there is a clear delineation between control of new oil fields and existing oil fields.
As a largely unexplored entity, almost all of Kurdistan?s new-found wealth can be considered as newly discovered.
As the gulf between both parties has grown over oil sharing, Kurdistan has continued a unilateral development of its oil sector with the awarding of dozens of oil contracts to foreign firms to the annoyance of Baghdad, which has repeatedly deemed any deals without its consent as illegal.
The stalemate has gathered pace as a number of smaller oil exploration companies have struck black gold in spectacular fashion. As more oil wells are drilled, more flow tests prove successful and more seismic data is undertaken, the strength and potential of Kurdistan swells by the day.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum is one British company that has benefited hugely from its eagerness to jump the queue. The potential recoverable resources have seemingly increased by billions of barrels as each new well has proved a success and GKP alone stands to have anything between 7 to 11 billion barrels of oil on its books. Other companies have included DNO, Genel Energy, Western Zagros and Heritage Oil, with degrees of success. While Kurdistan?s rise as a respectable oil power has been historic, its quest is greatly restricted by the noose that is Baghdad.
Issues over payments to third parties, revenue sharing, transportation of oil and Baghdad?s refusal to recognize any oil contracts signed by the Kurdistan Regional Government threatens to derail Kurdish aspirations and at the same time deepen the animosity between Arabs and Kurds.
Kurdistan has been allowed to make limited exports but payment issues have quickly limited throughput.
While Kurdistan is enjoying increasing attention from major global oil giants, threats by Baghdad to blacklist firms signing contracts with Kurdistan have deterred many parties. Only recently Iraq's Oil Ministry excluded U.S. oil firm Hess Corp from competing in the fourth round of its auction of oil fields.
Basis for political concord
Such is the Kurdish sentiment on the enactment of a balanced oil law that it has formed a key prerequisite for Kurdish support of the current coalition.
However, much like the many promises over the implementation of Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution, the lack of reconciliation on oil law has served to only antagonize the Kurds.
While Baghdad has criticized the Kurds over the awarding of oil contracts, it has continued to encourage development of its oil industry with a number of contracts already signed and a fourth round of bidding currently on the table and scheduled to be finalized by January 2012. This is in addition three major natural gas fields that were auctioned to foreign firms last year.
Baghdad has continued to encourage major oil films while at the same time the national oil draft has gathered dust. Iraq currently produces around 2.7 million barrels of oil per day and has an ambitious target to multiply this to 12 million bpd in less than six years.
Grapple for power
Although pluralist governance and federalism was a key cornerstone of the Constitution, Baghdad?s attempts of solidifying central control and diluting regional powers have been evident in recent years.
As the autonomy of the Kurdistan Region has continuously strengthened, one of the remaining ?sticks? to wane Kurdish advancement is Baghdad?s hegemony over oil. Many countries have welcomed the potential role of Kurdistan as a core supplier to the long-awaited Nabucco gas pipeline but it was ironically Iraq that condemned and jeopardized such motions.
Potential deals by the Iraqi Oil Ministry to supply gas to Europe places a further cloud Kurdish ambitions. At the end of the day, billions barrels of oil are facts that speak volumes. As the economy and wealth of Kurdistan expands, so does its influence and strategic power. One of the major factors that saw the once-unthinkable visit of a Turkish prime minister was the growing economic ties between Turkey and Kurdistan as much as a political thawing.
The likes of Turkey may have been weary of Kurdish oil been used to power its independence in the past but the reward, as many foreign investors have discovered, is too good to miss.
In the meantime, it could be a while before a draft oil law is passed by Parliament. The new dispute over the hydrocarbon law may at the same time strike a fatal blow to an already sick political alliance in Baghdad
===
Author scaramouche View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted today 10:15
Subject Exaggeration, Incompetency... or both? Votes for this Posting Voted 50 times.
Message
I notice that an article was copied onto the board yesterday showing Shahristani apparently blowing a fuse again regarding allegedly declining exports from Kurdistan.
Whenever he does this, he inevitably causes consternation amongst PIs like us and no doubt Iraqi politicians anxious for a resolution to the Oil Law and Contract issues. But, as far as I can see, Mr S has got his facts completely wrong! This is my reasoning...
According to this article from Reuters, the Oil minister Luaibi has acknowledged that exports from the whole of Iraq have gone from 2.275 million barrels per day in June, to 2.164 million barrels per day in July, and in the first half of August were running at 2.2 million per day.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/16/iraq-oil-exports-idUSL5E7JG2EL20110816
From this, we can establish that Iraqi exports have been pretty consistent at 2.2 million barrels per day for quite some time.
As their contribution to this, according to Fox News, Kurdish exports had risen to 175,000 bopd in June. http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2011/07/13/iraq-kurdish-june-oil-exports-175000-bd-minister/.
As we know, exports only started on 3 February 2011, so it was quite a sharp increase in a short period. Then, according to the following Bloomberg article, in July the export figure apparently reached 180,000 bopd and Ashti Hawrami has said that he expects it to rise to 200,000 per day by the end of 2011.
http://english.alrroya.com/content/iraq%E2%80%99s-kurdistan-oil-output-180000-bpd
So, what has caused Mr S. to get wound up all over again? Maybe it was this article...
http://www.islamonline.com/news/articles/12/DNO-international-to-lower-Iraq-production.html
Extract: “Norway's DNO International has announced plans to cut the output at its prize Tawke field in Iraq to 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) as it confirmed rising second quarter core earnings year-on-year, Reuters has reported. The company, which was producing some 70,000 boed from the field in June, has added that any further investments at the Tawke facilities are subject to clarification of export payments.”
And having read this, Mr S has decided to embellish it a little!!
However, if we believe what Mehmet Sepil of Genel said in the Tony Hayward/Vallares presentation last week, the second payment has now been received by the KRG from Baghdad, so there should be no issue there. (Note: This has to be great news, and possibly deserved more discussion on this BB I think.)
Certainly, it seems to me that, in response to the DNO news, Shahristani appears to have got his facts totally wrong in his latest interview.
http://alsumarianews.com/ar/iraq-bus.../-3-27717.html
Extract: ‘Shahristani said in an interview for "Alsumaria News", "quantities of oil delivered to the central government of the Kurdistan region declined during the past two weeks, from 150 thousand barrels to 50 barrels, in the sense that there is a shortage of about 100 thousand barrels a day".
Well, apart from the obvious typos, I think he has got the wrong end of the stick entirely. Exports from Kurdistan have been running at around 180,000 bopd (not 150,000). The reduction has been 20,000 bopd (not 100,000) and it has stemmed from DNO reducing their output from 70,000 bopd to 50,000 for a rather differnet reason.
From the DNO production report dated 2 September 2011:
http://hugin.info/36/R/1543652/472912.pdf
“Gross production at Tawke is temporary reduced to around 50,000 bopd for reservoir monitoring activities. The average gross production for August is expected to be around 53,000 bopd.”
It is of course possible that there has been a 'political' element to DNO’s reduced production expectation, given Shahristani’s latest antics with obtaining ‘Cabinet approval’ of a different version of the Draft Oil & Gas Law from the one that the Kurds were happy with. But I don’t see any evidence yet of the huge decline in Kurdish export volumes that Mr S is alluding to.
Hmmm... Given Mr S’s signature on what have proven to be “fraudulent” Electricity contracts which eventually cost the Electricity Minister his job... and which he himself only apparently checked by a few minutes on the Internet.... you would think he would be more careful to check his facts, before complaining to the media about a reduction in Kurdish production of 100,000 barrels per day.
IMHO, either Mr S has an ‘Agenda’ for saying this, or he has again shown himself to be less than competent in matters regarding BOTH Electricity and Oil!
Perhaps the writing is on the wall!
GLA, scaramouche
============
07:51 The Times WJJ1 13
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Small mention today
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/markets/article3160059.ece
Nothing new, but there were also reheated rumours of takeover interest in Gulf Keystone Petroleum, a firm favourite among the inhabitants of financial chatrooms. That, despite a denial of any such talks by the Iraqfocused oil explorer less than a fortnight ago. Still, the shares were 6¾p better at 156¾p, as other private investors backing the company whispered that a positive drilling update would come.
====
Sat 23:47 Re: Question from an old boy Dalesmann 10
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Good evening GRH
Ive put in all your perimeters into my spreadsheet - it is now giving off steam!
But entering the following as requested
****************************************************************************************
Increase the recovery factor to T Hayward's 50%
Adjust the NPV to zero (gives 9%),
allow ...OIP as follows...
7Bn for Beckme
7Bn for Barkman
2 Bn for Goluck
2.4Bn for AB
3b for SA
25billion for BB
15billion for Shaikan
oh and increase the CoS to say 80%...
NOT 100% you will note
oh and just look a bit ahead ...to $120 oil price
*******************************************************************************
( I hope you are lying down in a darkened room)
the answer is
£72.83/ share
I refuse to let Mrs D in on this result to this calculation as a shopping spree would surely follow well before the dosh hits the bank account!
It just goes to illustrate the amazing upside that results from tweaking a few of the variables.
Now where's my wish list
Yacht √
Jag √
World Cruise √
Mortgage paid √
etc etc
Being serious for one second these are just the type of scenarios accompanied by just these sort of variable assumptions that predators will be doing as part of their DD
Just look at the un-drilled structures which could further inflate the OIP figs beyond those requested by GRH.
Many thanks to GRH for the question the answer is, to use the vernacular(The standard native language of a country or locality.
) ,
As you know from the post below, GRH has asked me to enter a few alterations into the NAV the results are amazing!
I'm not saying this price can be achieved (its very unlikely) but it does illustrate very well the blue sky upside.
I urge you all to DYOR and the results documented are as always all in my own opinion and should not be used as a guide to buy ,sell or even hold GKP!.
gobsmacking!
Kind regards
Dalesman
======
Sat 17:51 Question from an old boy GRH1 36
As ever, this post is greatly biased
and comes from an uber bull
so it should be ignored by anyone seeking an impartial view etc
Well...I am obviously older than I thought...
as I seem to be losing my ability to (inter alia) run a spreadsheet...
so I have come on here (for a bit of fun) to ask if the keeper of the spreadsheet
(AKA Dalesman) would please help me out
I have input a few numbers and the result seems to provide a bit of 'shock and awe' all by itself...
so surely...I must be wrong??
Dalesman...would you please indulge me a while
and would you please tell me the potential share value ...
assuming the following 'potential' factors...
Increase the recovery factor to T Hayward's 50%
Adjust the NPV to zero (gives 9%),
allow ...OIP as follows...
7Bn for Beckme
7Bn for Barkman
2 Bn for Goluck
2.4Bn for AB
3b for SA
25billion for BB
15billion for Shaikan
oh and increase the CoS to say 80%...
NOT 100% you will note
oh and just look a bit ahead ...to $120 oil price
I know it is meaningless right now...
or is it?
might there be people out there right now running pretty much the same calcs...
the 'what if' scenario?
I do not know of course...
but note that this is someway short of BBBS 100Bn...
As ever,my Wife has now brought me my medication and some hot towels
and is looking at me in a funny way...
so I might be 'off posting' for a while
Thanks
Regards
GRH1++
====
00:34 Buy Re: Question from an old boy chuffin 6
With the amount of money that would be worth to me, I'm going to struggle holding onto all my shares if we hit £25, let alone £72.
For the volume of potential finds, the mkt cap doesn't actually sounds as daft(Mad; crazy.
) as it might compared to the majors, but we all know that requires major production as well.
I doubt many of us believe we'll ever get anywhere near these numbers before being snapped up(To acquire quickly: snapped up the tickets.
).
This past week has added an extra dimension to being relaxed about holding, no matter what the wider market throws at us.
==========
Iraq pitches oil, gas areas to potential investors
Published: 2011/09/12
DUBAI: Iraqi oil officials made an investment pitch to 46 companies qualified to bid in a January auction of exploration licences as the country seeks to develop its reserves of crude and natural gas.
"More companies are attending this time as the improvements in the security and political situation make it less risky," Abdul Mahdy al-Ameedi, the director general at Iraq's Petroleum Contracts and Licensing Directorate, said in an interview yesterday in Amman, Jordan.
"It is also the last opportunity for companies to gain access to Iraq's reserves as we don't need to add new oil and gas projects for a long time."
Iraqi officials including Oil Minister Abdul Kareem al- Luaibi and al-Ameedi briefed companies about the 12 exploration areas to be auctioned in next year's fourth bidding round. The concessions - seven for oil and five for gas - cover 80,700 sq km, according to an Oil Ministry statement in April. Al-Luaibi said March 22 that the blocks contain 29 billion cubic metres of gas and 10 billion barrels of crude.
Iraq, which holds the fifth-biggest gas reserves in the Middle East and the fifth-largest crude oil deposits, relies on crude sales for most of its revenue. Oil, gas and electricity output have suffered from decades of war and sanctions.
Firms operating in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq, where authorities of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government made agreements without the approval of the central government in Baghdad, are not allowed to participate in the planned auction.
"It is a policy of the ministry of oil that any international oil company with contracts in any block or field in Kurdistan will not be able to participate in projects in the rest of Iraq," al-Ameedi said.
Iraq is working to raise its crude output to 3 million barrels a day by the end of the year from 2.4 million barrels a day in 2010, al-Luaibi said yesterday. Exports will reach over 2.5 million barrels a day this year from 1.89 million barrels a year earlier, he said in a speech.
The country has signed contracts in previous bidding rounds with international companies including ExxonMobil Corp and Total SA that should quadruple output to 12 million barrels a day by 2017, Hussain al-Shahristani, deputy prime minister for energy affairs, said in July.
Statoil ASA and OAO Lukoil signed a development and production service contract in 2010, aiming to produce 1.8 million barrels a day at Iraq's West Qurna field.
"There is no way Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) will allow Iraq to produce more than 5 million barrels a day in 2020," Kjetil Tonstad, Statoil's Middle East vice-president for international exploration and production, said in an interview during the presentations at a hotel in Amman.
"Yet it will be difficult for Iraq to tell firms to produce less because contracts are volume-driven."
Statoil, which may bid for some of the exploration blocks on offer in January, expects competition to be tough because of the number of companies eager to participate, Tonstad said.
Opec, which supplies 40 per cent of the world's oil, sets quota targets for its members to ensure that output doesn't exceed global demand.
Iraq, the only Opec member exempt from quotas, has historically produced crude at a level comparable to that of Iran. - Bloomberg
Read more: Iraq pitches oil, gas areas to potential investors http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/irit/Article/index_html#ixzz1XfyKXXlv
===
Author SpikeyDT View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted today 14:12
Subject Iraq Oil Report-
Votes for this Posting
Message
Future Energy returns to Istanbul from 26 - 29 September 2011Mon, Sep 12, 2011 at 2:09 PM
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Over four days you will gain on-the-ground market intelligence and participate in discussions, debates and networking with key decision makers from the oil, gas and electricity sectors. This will enable you to determine your business case for entering and operating within this extremely challenging yet financially rewarding market.
Join representatives from the Iraqi Parliament, different Ministries from Iraq and the Kurdistan region, Shell, Total, ExxonMobil, The World Bank, Statoil, Kuwait Energy, DNO International, Gulf Keystone Petroleum and more at the most the most comprehensive Iraqi energy event of the year.
>> Find out more at: www.theenergyexchange.co.uk/iraq11
At Iraq 2011: Future Energy you will hear from:
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Hans Nijkamp, Vice President and Country Chairman, Iraq, Shell International
Mr. Farman Ghareb, Director General - Sulaymaniyah, Kurdistan Board of Investment,KRG
Simona Marinescu, Senior Economist and Programme Director for Economic Reforms, Iraq, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
Mr. Elias Kassis, Managing Director, Exploration and Production, Iraq, Total
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>> View all speakers and the full programme today at www.theenergyexchange.co.uk/iraq11
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Call: +971 2 401 2930 or +44 (0) 20 7067 1800
Download the brochure and fax the registration form to: +44 (0) 207 067 1807
If you require any further information regarding Iraq 2011: Future Energy please contact me.
I look forward welcoming you in Istanbul next month.
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Iraq 2011: Future Energy- Senior Project Manager
The Energy Exchange
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E: s.mehta@theenergyexchange.co.uk
===
Provision of Tubular Running Equipment and Services for Shaikan Appraisal Wells
NOTIFICATION OF TENDER AND INVITATION TO BID
TENDER No: GKPI/SH/2011/047
Provision of Tubular Running Equipment and Services for Shaikan Appraisal Wells
Gulf Keystone Petroleum International Ltd (GKPI) is pleased to invite interested Companies (Bidders) to submit a
===
Author aktierman View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore Date posted today 17:56
Subject Iraqi Kurdistan draws bidders
Votes for this Posting Voted 5 times.
Message
On the surface, Iraqi Kurdistan is every oil explorer's dream.
Nearly untouched until recently, relatively secure and ruled by a local government eager for foreign partners, the semi-autonomous region has become a target for fresh investment. Among the most recent investors to place bets are the UAE company RAK Petroleum and Tony Hayward, the former BP chief executive who called Kurdistan "one of the last great oil and gas frontiers".
But underlying the promise of the region's estimated 40 billion barrels of reserves is a long-running dispute between the regional government in Kurdistan and the federal seat of power. At the heart of the disagreement is who gets to decide the future of Kurdistan's oil riches - Erbil or Baghdad.
"Constitutionally, Iraq is a federal state. Practically speaking, it's not," said Luay Al Khateeb, the executive director of Iraq Energy, an organisation that promotes the development of the oil industry. "This is what's creating rather challenging issues between federalists and centralists, leaving them to futile debates with no outcome."
The volleys began in 2009, when Kurdistan halted oil exports because Baghdad deemed the contracts between it and foreign producers illegal. This year, Erbil resumed exports and some companies began receiving their first payments from Baghdad for exports. But this week, after the oil flow fell from 160,000 to 50,000 barrels per day (bpd), each side offered a different explanation.
Abdul-Kareem Luaibi, the Iraqi oil minister, told Reuters that the stoppage would hurt the national economy, while the government in Erbil blamed it on "serious technical difficulties".
Throughout the dispute, US$10 billion (Dh36.72bn) in foreign investment has come to Kurdistan, according to the regional government. Traditionally the domain of small, risk-taking producers, Kurdistan is seeing interest grow from larger companies such as Marathon, Repsol and Hess.
OMV, the Austrian producer in which Abu Dhabi holds a one fifth stake, drills in three fields there and has stakes in two more.
RAK Petroleum finalised a deal this month to take on a larger stake in DNO International, the Norwegian producer that was among the first to strike oil in Kurdistan. And last week, Vallares, the energy investment vehicle backed by Mr Hayward and Nat Rothschild, a British-born financier, announced that its first target would be Genel Enerji, a Turkish producer in the region.
Those companies - along with Heritage Oil, Gulf Keystone and other producers - have chosen to throw in their lot with Erbil, knowing that they risk being denied access to fields in the south because the oil ministry in Baghdad has said such companies would be blacklisted from field auctions. The ministry is offering concessions with an estimated 10 billion barrels in reserves to more than 40 bidders in what it says will be its last auction for some time.
For such companies, the risk of being denied entry to southern Iraq is outweighed by a more open investment climate in oil and other sectors, said Mr Al Khateeb.
"In terms of local regulations, the way they legislate companies, the level of bureaucracy, attractiveness - it's all different from Baghdad," he said from London. "It's less bureaucratic and more safe. Investment incentives are more attractive." They are waiting for a national oil law to clarify the relationship between Baghdad and Erbil. A draft submitted to the parliament last month drew ire from Kurdistan, which said it had not been consulted on the document.
"The country politically is not settled yet," said Hazim Sultan, the former director general of the oil ministry's reservoirs and fields development directorate who now runs a consultancy in Amman. "Unless an oil law is finally approved by the parliament, things will continue to be volatile." Amid the disagreements, oil companies are taking a wait-and-see approach.
"It makes sense for all parties for the issues to be resolved," Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani, the chairman of RAK Petroleum and DNO International, said in July.
"The trick is to have staying power, to behave in a responsible and transparent way, and at the end I think this will be a very, very successful foray into Kurdistan."
http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/industry-insights/energy/iraqi-kurdistan-draws-bidders
===
19:40 Kurdistan Yardstick MrAverage1 11
Any Institutional newbies with a modicum of intellect looking to enter Kurdistan after reading the numerous Vallares updates have surely paid a casual glance to it's "yardstick" GKP.
You betcha Tony's happy ....therefore we PIs should be delirious.
TH has publicly commentated that the Taq Taq field is their Crown Jewel ! and may well go on to possibly hold ~1 Biliion bbl's of Reserves. The playing down of the Ber Bahr prospect is obviously his clever suprise upside tactic.
As a yardstick Shaikan alone has a 90% chance of holding 4.9 Bln bbl's. Moreover we have a 50% chance of Shaikan holding 7.5 Bln bbls, these figs EXCLUDE additional upside from both the Triassic and the Permian zones, and at this stage a seemingly gererous and successful looking Sh4.
The Taq Taq field may be years in advance of Shaikan in development and known data terms but personally i wouldn't swop Shaikan for half a dozen Taq Taq's.
The current Sh4 may take us beyond the unexplored Mid-Triassic range. If not, i'm sure MOL at Beckhme will get there and dispel any doubts. ( several Bln bbl's IMHO ).
If we're allowed the necessary time GKP have yet to drill what many deem to be the more prospective & productive side of Shaikan - namely the Northern aspect of its anticline structure. ALL drills to date including Sheikh Adi too - reside on the southern aspect.
When looking at TH and Co you have a group of well groomed city exponents well versed and experienced in dealing with the city and the citys wider contacts, in contrast to this GKP & Todd are pricipally oilmen / explorers. It has indirectly taken the actions of others such as the Vallares' mouthpiece to make the broader investment world stand up and begin to take note of GKP ....the true Kurdistan beast.
The BIR subject may have gone temporarily cold, but how can the KRG aportion or forward negotiate on a best price basis to a "partlally" known Shaikan at this moment. Sh4 results could help narrow factors down and determine the data to help speed this up.
Ryder Scott may soon have some 2P Reserve figures adding weight of evidence to the Jurassic recovery factors. Break these to the market gently please RS - no need to embarress others quite yet. lol.
Goodnite all
MrAverage1
==
Author investor48 View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted today 01:37
Subject GKP is a situational stock
Votes for this Posting Voted 9 times.
Message
Hi All,
Markets have been volatile and most stocks have seened new lows,but GKP as of today's closing price of 170.5p is in positive territory for the year.
The last 18months we have seened great posts of the likes of BBBS,Gramacho,Scaramouche,
Dalesmann,GRH1,TPO,and the lists goes on and on,all of them have taken alot of their time and effort to post painstaking research,and at times better than most analysts,IMHO.
Whilst so many brokers have a buy call on GKP and target prices way above the SP,the market needed a Tony Hayward and Nathaniel Roschild's deal with Genel,to give that important kick start for many to come to their senses,that GKP is grossly undervalue!
As per Scaramouche's post today at 23:55,it is indeed a perfect storm and we will see a steep rerating of GKP in the not to distant future.GKP will remain a situational stock for the rest of 2011 and probably into 2012 as well,provided we are still around!!
Best wishes to all
=================
Author scaramouche View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted Monday 23:55
Subject The perfect storm.... Votes for this Posting Voted 44 times.
Message
Taking up Mr Average’s them of the Kurdistan yardstick, I thought I would try to home in a little further on the comparison in value between GKP and the Vallares/Genel acquisition.
Now, remember that Genel are operating exclusively in Kurdistan, so there is little to differentiate between them and GKP on those grounds.
So, let’s take a look at the OIL RESERVES first....
I notice from the Vallares presentation that on p.6 it refers to “Competitive entry cost resources $1.5/bbl, 2P reserves $6/bbl”
http://thesharehub.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/110907-Analyst-Presentation-FINAL.pdf
From this, you can deduce that Reserves are assumed to be 25% of the total Resources, indicating that an overall Recovery factor of just 25% is being applied. It also shows resource potential of 1.4 billion on the same slide, which would give 350 million barrels of reserves on the same basis.
So, since we know from various articles that Vallares paid $2.1 billion for 356 million of reserves, everything seems consistent so far.
Now, I know that we have all become accustomed to thinking in terms of Recovery Factors of ‘one-third’ (management estimate ), or 30-35% from JG’s comments, or 35% on the GKP NAV calculator. But just suppose we applied the same CAUTIOUS 25% RF for each of GKP’s licences.
We would end up with:
Shaikan = 7.5 billion x 25% x 51% Net WI = 956 million reserves.
Sheikh Adi = 1.9 billion x 25% x 80% WI = 380 million reserves.
Akri-Bijeel = 2.4 billon x 25% x 12.8% = 77 million reserves.
The overall total (based only on RNS’s to date) would therefore be 1413 million barrels of oil reserves.
*** This is almost exactly FOUR TIMES the 356 million reserves that Tony Hayward has attributed to Vallares ***
Turning to the GAS, I note that in the Platts article copied onto the board this evening we also have a benchmark to compare against.
Extract: “Miran. Genel holds an 18.75% stake in the field where a major gas discovery was announced in January by operator Heritage Oil following the discovery of a new hydrocarbon system in the Lower Cretacious and Jurassic. Miran has proven reserves of 6.8 Tcf of gas”
Gas appears to have a recovery rate of around 70% from what I have read, and 5487 cu ft of gas = 1 barrel of oil equivalent.
So, Genel would have 6.8 TCF x 70% RF x 18.75% WI / 5487 = 162 million barrels of oil equivalent too.
Meanwhile, at Shaikan (from the original DGA report), there were estimates of between 6 and14 TCF of gas. Let us use 10 TCF as the mean figure.
Using exactly the same basis as above, this would give GKP gas reserves of 10 TCF x 70% RF x 51% Net WI / 5487 = 650 million barrels of oil equivalent.
*** Interestingly, this is also almost exactly FOUR TIMES the Genel figure of 162 million ***
So, in conclusion, if we use exactly the same CAUTIOUS BASIS for GKP that Vallares have used with reference to Genel’s assets, we can see that GKP comes out being 4 TIMES the amount for both OIL and GAS ... NOW!
And finally, let us look at market cap.
Genel has been given a valuation of $2.1 billion by Vallares. (Note: It is mooted that Sinopec offered something nearer to $3 billion but that an all-cash takeover was seen as a less favourable option).
Meanhwile, at today’s closing price of 170.5p, GKP’s 762.35 million shares give it a market cap of £1.3 billion (or close to $2.1 billion)... the same as Genel!
The only conclusion I can come to is that... by any kind of yardstick... GKP shares should be worth a minimum of 4 TIMES what they are today (Vallares deal) or nearly half as much again for a straight cash offer.
And that is before we get any further news (on Wednesday perhaps?) which could blow even valuations such as this out of the water. I would now expect AT LEAST 10 times the current SP whe GKP is taken over!
We all know the fundamentals of this stock are amazing. The technicals are apparently now turning positive too. So, it seems we have the making of.... 'the perfect storm'.
AIMHO and please DYOR
GLA, scaramouche
====
Author SpikeyDT View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted today 16:10
Subject Oil & Gas Law !!
Votes for this Posting Voted 8 times.
Message
Oil and Gas Law of Iraq raises the fierce competition between Baghdad and ErbilPosted: September 13, 2011 by THE CURRENCY NEWSHOUND - Just Hopin in Iraqi Dinar/Politics
Tags: Constitution of Iraq, Council of Representatives of Iraq, Council of the European Union, Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan, Kurdish people, Kurdistan Regional government, Oil Ministry
Posted 13/09/2011 08:29 AM
Baghdad – Abdel Wahed Tohme: In the atmosphere of congestion political and popular dominates the scene in Iraq, the dawn of the Kurds opposed a new on oil and gas law, which lifted the Cabinet to parliament for discussion and approval, to add to the list of outstanding differences between the center and the region is another problem. The escalation of the Kurdish After years of tension between central government and the Kurdistan region on the management of wealth, especially oil and gas. The most prominent images crisis and the imposition of the federal ministry of oil sanctions against foreign companies contracted with the Kurdish government for oil exploration and extraction, the latest push the company «Hess Corp» American fourth round of oil licenses.
The former oil minister Ibrahim Bahr al-Ulum said in an interview to «life» that «the reasons for the difference between the center and the region lies in how to manage the oil wealth, and this applies to the interpretation of the subjects of the Constitution 111, 112». He added: «the size of the difference can be detected through the variation of powers and responsibilities from the House of Representatives and the end of the competent bodies».
Article 111 of the Iraqi constitution, that «the oil and gas are the property of all Iraqi people in all regions and provinces». The article 112, which confirms that «The federal government and governments of producing regions and provinces together will draw up the necessary strategic policies to develop oil and gas wealth, in order to achieve the highest benefit to the Iraqi people, relying most modern techniques of market principles and encouraging investment», it is a matter of dispute between the parties.
He attributed the science «differences Kurds, with the center on the new draft law, to the role of the provinces manage the wealth of the country» and pointed out that «the new draft law limited to reference management oil and gas resources the federal government, where has entrusted the Council of Ministers responsible for the ratification of the oil policy and overall supervision of the petroleum operations, and draw Ministry of Oil a pivotal role in policy development and preparation of directives, regulations and forms of contracts. The Council is chaired by the Federal Prime Minister or his nominee and the experts are chosen by the Prime Minister ».
He added: «The regional body in the regions, without producing provinces, they have the right to share the ministry procedures courses licenses in patches exploratory fields and undeveloped, and it may propose to the federal authorities, activities and plans, in preparation to be included in the plans of the Federal and cooperate with the Ministry in supervising the petroleum operations ».
Detection and former oil minister of reference according to the Federal Council proposed the new law as «adopt a vision that the management of oil wealth is not the prerogative of the federal government but is located mostly within the purview of the Federal Council for Oil and Gas». He says: «In contrast, we find that the draft law approved by the Council of Ministers adopted a completely different vision of where the Federal Government asserts that the management and development of petroleum resources in order to achieve the national interest and this is what came in the third paragraph of Article 2 of the». This problem refers to the central issue remains the cornerstone of most political debates between the parliamentary forces on the limits of a centralized state.
And rejects the Kurds pass this project because it is «given the dominance of a full and absolute to the central government to manage the wealth of oil and gas» By entrust «the responsibility of the ratification of the oil policy and overall supervision of the petroleum operations and to submit draft laws Cabinet», and the granting of the Federal Council for the oil and gas powers the adoption of policies and approval of the instructions and samples of contracts and approval of contracts.
And play the Oil Ministry a pivotal role in the development of policies and regulations and the preparation of model contracts, and the resolution states that the Council is chaired by the Federal Prime Minister or his nominee, and experts are chosen by the Prime Minister. The regional body in the regions without producing provinces has set out its authority and its role only in the «post ministry procedures courses licenses in patches exploratory fields and undeveloped, and it may propose to the authorities of the federal activities and plans in preparation to be included in the plans of the Federal and cooperate with the ministry to oversee the petroleum operations».
With regard to the contracts previously signed with the local administrations showed a sea of science that «the ministry, according to the draft law, to review all contracts for exploration, development and production, which concluded over the past period and returned to the office of consultants to evaluate and make recommendations to the Federal Council in the matter and the decision of the Council is binding. As regards contracts for the Kurdistan region will undertake the competent body to review all contracts to be consistent with the objectives and provisions of the law and the Office of the advisors evaluate and be binding opinion ».
And find the Kurdistan government that the way the old project submitted to the Council of Ministers will satisfy their aspirations, the fact that the draft bill, the former «adopt the vision is the first: the federal oil and gas independent, which is vested in wealth management and approval of oil policies, and are selected chaired by experts from the Council of Representatives directly. And involving representatives of the regions and governorates, with no need to involve combinations other oil company National Oil and marketing company in its membership, and limited the role of the Oil Ministry on the proposal of policies, regulations, instructions, and provide a comprehensive plan to explore in consultation with the competent authorities and to participate with the Council in the preparation of model contracts, and the ministry is responsible for conduct courses of licenses. Second, the competent authorities in the regions and provinces are responsible for the management and exploitation of oil wealth through a licensing courses and do negotiate and conclude contracts and to oversee the petroleum operations, as well as auditing financial issues with holders of licenses ».
The Committee on oil and energy in the middle of Parliament raised last month, the draft law of oil and gas, by the deputies and experts based on the first draft made by the government in 2007 for first reading. However, the «National Alliance», which includes 159 seats, as opposed to read that the project not approved by the government and introduced amendments to it without the knowledge of the specific entities such as the ministry of oil, forcing the Chair to postpone the subject.
It notes the expert constitutional lawyer Sheriff mourning that «the problem with roots stretching to the stage of writing the constitution in 2005 with different partners in the political process within the Commission in writing the Constitution on the role of regional governments and provinces in the administration of the country, including in addition to water, borders and tax revenues, oil and gas. Then demanded that the Kurds, this wealth is managed by local authorities, and this rejection Cherkaúhm Arabs and Turkmen XXXXX and XXXXX ».
He added: «ended up to suspend the issue via the Constitution to include the words floating. Here we are now seeing the problematic us back to square one ».
He added science to the many options that can be used to in the form of individual or collective, such as the option of the status quo by leaving things as they are and rely on the time for resolving problems and keep the oil ministry is free to hold licensing rounds in the provinces and continue the Kurdistan Regional Government in the conclusion of contracts in their regions and reached to in the Convention on the settlement of Erbil, the region against which undertakes to hand over its oil production to the central government for export through the pipes against the national government payments to cover the territory of a certain percentage of production that are settled in the post. Or the option of political consensus, which requires all parties to waive limits their options for the investment of wealth in the form which preserves the unity of the country and its people. The latter option to go to the Federal Court, which is the best, the fact that the essence of the dispute lies in the understanding of the constitutional articles relating to the management and exploitation of oil and gas wealth », called Science Iraqi politicians that« deduct their differences, it is not logic that keeps Iraq suffers from a deficit of political prevents to reach consensus on the most important detail of the joints of the economy, which is a column basis for the financing of its budget «could not hide his concern that« the continuing political dispute means not believe some of the parties in the development of Iraq, building on the corner of the State
http://bit.ly/nHxsA9
===
Tue 22:58 Times Online dhatrader 47
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Internet bulletin boards were alive with chat about Gulf Keystone Petroleum ahead of today’s results for the first half of this year.
The oil explorer still commands a near-evangelical following among private punters, despite the many bloody casualties forced to close positions in early August after the shares lost almost a third of their value in a fortnight.
Since then, the stock market generally may have toiled less than 2 per cent higher, but GKP, a further 11p better at 181½p yesterday, has soared more than 80 per cent and is now within touching distance of its best ever.
In part, the improvement has been built on speculation, denied by the company, a perennial subject of bulletin board tittle-tattle, that it may be up for sale for as much as £1.4 billion.
The Kurdish region of Iraq where GKP operates is attracting a lot of attention, particularly since Vallares, the cash shell of BP’s former chief executive Tony Hayward and Nat Rothschild, confirmed that it would buy an oil explorer there last week. The £2.5 billion deal, which effectively threw Mr Hayward and GKP together as working partners on the untapped Ber Bahr block, was music to the ears of the GKP faithful.
In part, GKP’s improvement has been amid hopes that the Kurdish regional government would reach an accord soon with Baghdad on an oil law to regulate the industry. And, in part, there were hopes that GKP may soon name a new heavyweight director to bolster its credibility in more sober quarters of the market.
Then there were fresh whispers yesterday about its wells. Supposedly, testing of part of its Shaikan 2 well has showed it yielding as much as 60,000 barrels of oil a day. Meanwhile, its Sheikh Adi well, previously nothing but a disappointment to GKP enthusiasts, purportedly has had a “second wind” and the oil now flows more freely. An eagerly awaited report on GKP’s wells was expected imminently.
===
09:39 Re: Akri-Bijeel For Sale - FagPackCalcs Laid up 9
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Fag pack calcs, based on the Genel deal, to value what we currently have at AB:
Akri-Bijeel (current)
OIP Net to GKP 310,000,000
30% rf 93,000,000
$5.9 per barrell 5.9
$ 548,700,000
$/£ 1.6
Giving: £ 342,937,500
Then, so if Beckme comes in as rumoured, one could multtiply that by 4 giving: £1,371,750,000
The Company has made a strategic decision to rationalize its
asset portfolio and is to seek a buyer for its 20% interest
in the Akri-Bijeel block. This decision will facilitate an
increased focus on the ambitious programme of appraisal and
Extended Well Test production at Shaikan and the Shaikan pipeline
project, as well as on the exploration and appraisal of Sheikh
Adi and the drilling of the first exploration well on Ber
Bahr
===
Author Bah Bah Black Sheep View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted today 10:07
Subject A Picture's Worth a 1000 Words Votes for this Posting Voted 41 times.
Message
So we've had a few thousand words. Several good words if you understand oil-speak:
- SH-4 does have significantly better Net Pay than SH-1. Want to guess the impact on OIP?
- SA-1 Net Pay is surprisingly better than expected - and also has consequences for OIP...
- With Bekhme-1 close to finished apart from the testing, GKP will already know the OIP assessment for Bekhme - and by implication Aqra - to add on to the meagre 2.4 billion for Bijeel. No wonder they feel that NOW is the right time to flog off the crumbs.
There were also a few disappointing words of course with regard to production to date, but it is good to see that they 'have a plan'. And what a plan! A company pipeline to pre-empt the growing production from Kurdistan (get first dibs on current spare capacity through Turkey).
But words are just words - what time do the pictures start? I hope you have a nice show for us at 14.00 Todd:
- an updated 3D picture and OIP estimate of our Genel-shared-mega-structure?
- a comparison of GKP versus Genel assets could be of interest?
- a rogues gallery with at least one of the three new rogues common to Genel?
Why else would half-year results warrant a Presentation? (open to the floor now)
GLA,
BBBS
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You are here: Home » Politics » Oil Policy » Ministry unveils tough terms for 4th bid round
Ministry unveils tough terms for 4th bid round
IOC officials express skepticism as model contract tightens cost-recovery mechanism and gives Oil Ministry the authority to delay production.
Iraq Oil Minister Abdul Karim Luaibi gives welcoming remarks at the Fourth Licensing Round roadshow in Amman, Sept. 11, 2011. (BEN LANDO/Iraq Oil Report)
By Ben Lando and Staff of Iraq Oil Report
Published September 14, 2011 Although Iraq has launched the bid round that global oil companies have been waiting for — deals to prospect for oil and gas in some of the world's richest unexplored geology — the contract terms are not all the companies had been hoping for.
The spectacle of the fourth bidding round Jan. 25-26 will be familiar, with foreign oil company officials dropping bids into a clear box on stage, on live TV; but the selection criteria will change. The sole bidding parameter will be the fee each co...
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You are here: Home » Politics » Oil Policy » Ministry unveils tough terms for 4th bid round
Ministry unveils tough terms for 4th bid round
IOC officials express skepticism as model contract tightens cost-recovery mechanism and gives Oil Ministry the authority to delay production.
Iraq Oil Minister Abdul Karim Luaibi gives welcoming remarks at the Fourth Licensing Round roadshow in Amman, Sept. 11, 2011. (BEN LANDO/Iraq Oil Report)
By Ben Lando and Staff of Iraq Oil Report
Published September 14, 2011 Although Iraq has launched the bid round that global oil companies have been waiting for — deals to prospect for oil and gas in some of the world's richest unexplored geology — the contract terms are not all the companies had been hoping for.
The spectacle of the fourth bidding round Jan. 25-26 will be familiar, with foreign oil company officials dropping bids into a clear box on stage, on live TV; but the selection criteria will change. The sole bidding parameter will be the fee each co...
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-14/gulf-keystone-exits-project-with-mol-to-focus-on-kurdish-fields.html
"“Kurdistan is a hot market in the merger and acquisition business,” Kozel said in a phone interview. “There will be a lot of international oil companies looking at the opportunity to purchase Akri-Bijeel and I don’t think we will be in a position of working too hard to find a buyer.”
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-14/gulf-keystone-exits-project-with-mol-to-focus-on-kurdish-fields.html
"“Kurdistan is a hot market in the merger and acquisition business,” Kozel said in a phone interview. “There will be a lot of international oil companies looking at the opportunity to purchase Akri-Bijeel and I don’t think we will be in a position of working too hard to find a buyer.”
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08:59 M M M moment! jessybess 10
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After being here for years, brining others on board & encouraging them to stay put through the rollercoatsr rides we have had over the last year I had a major mmm moment last week. I'm not a trader just someone who has learnt a bit from the many good posters here & learnt how to trade a little, mainly through trade plans, I have other work so can't be around to real time deal. Over the years I have accumulated a few more shares this way & taken profits when needing the cash. However big mmm moment last week. I needed cash for a number of bills, sold some shares & hoped to buy in again a few pence cheeper. Well I knew it was a risky time to do so & kept telling myself DONT push the button. However I did, only to see us take off a bit, well not content with making that wrong call I did it again with my remaining shares, we then really took off. That cost me 5000 shares as I bought back in yesterday. The whole thing was a MM moment, initially one of real frustration then just resignation, I know I will still be well qiuds in by T.O. I share this as one of lifes lessons to other menopausel woman, listen to your head & don't let Menopausel Madness Moments screw things up. Watch us really take off the next time a MMM moment hits.But from Dalesman's post yesterday I'm glad I'm not the only one who botched things at the wrong time. Good luck all
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Well, it certainly isn't entirely a rumour....
Extract: "Earlier this week Gulf Keystone Petroleum – the next super major oil company – spelled out its plans for the future".
THE NEXT SUPER MAJOR OIL COMPANY eh! They certainly got that one right, without the normal tongue in cheeks to follow, anywhere in the article.
Remember what you are sitting on everyone - a share in possibly the biggest onshore oil discovery in the last 30 years, an oil field the size of Kirkuk or possibly bigger..... and a company still at a relatively early stage in its development.
GLA, scaramouche
Author scaramouche View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted Thursday 09:00
Subject Bekhme will change the picture... Votes for this Posting Voted 79 times.
Message
Gramacho’s excellent post has helped us all to get a much a clearer understanding of what 2P reserves and contingent resources are worth to GKP. Many thanks for that, Gramacho.
From it, my understanding is that we should be thinking of using $3.60 per barrel for Reserves for valuation purposes.
Interestingly, the GKP NAV calculator http://www.navcalculator.com/GKP_NAV.php
inadvertently does exactly that by applying a 40% Infrastructure Support tax to profit oil at $6 per barrel, which prodcues a result of $3.60 for reserves.
I say “inadvertently” because, when the calculator was devised, it used $75 oil and 8% profit (giving $6 profit gross) whereas we are now looking at something closer to $90 oil and 8% profit (Vallares/Genel deal) which comes out at $7.20 per barrel.
In effect the $3.60 per barrel of reserves which Gramacho has demonstrated is using is exactly half that $7.20... and so leaves “something for the next man”.
What Gramacho has also done is to apply a cautious 25% RF to OIP (P50) figures. The GKP NAV calculator applies a more optimistic 35% RF based on JG’s past comments, but I see from the latest presentation that GKP are now using an estimate of 30% RF. Given that TH expects that in the longer-term RF’s of 50% may be achievable, I would imagine that 30% is not unreasonable.
So, let us see what happens if we apply the CURRENT figures for Akri- bijeel, on which newspaper reports are probably based.We get:
2.419 billion OIP x 30% RF x 12.8% Net WI = 93 million barrels of reserves.
93 million x $3.60 per barrel = $335 million.
Now, not many people seem to have noticed that Dragon_Ventures last night posted the following interesting question, referring to a snippet in the Daily telegraph:
--------------------------------------------------------------
Quote:
'It is also looking to sell its 20pc stake in the Akri-Bijeel field, operated by Hungary's Mol Nyrt, for up to $350m (£222m). The shares dropped 2¼ to 179¼p.'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/8763385/Gulf-Keystone-and-Rockhopper-unveil-oil-plans-for-Iraq-and-the-Falklands.html
Not too sure how they have arived at that valuation
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Well, $335 million is the value shown above, $350 million is the figure in the Telegraph, and this all seems to tally with Ewen Ainsworth’s comments that Akri Bijeel should fetch “hundreds of millions of dollars”.
But remember that this is without Bekhme-1 which TK was talking of as being a possible 8 billion barrel discovery. I can’t see how Ewen or anyone else could have included much for this in their approximations as nothing has officially been announced yet and it is still therefore only a possibility.
Looking back at the MOL announcement for the Bijeel-1 discovery on 6 December 2010, we see: “Based on the updated geological model of the accumulation, the calculated petroleum initially in place (PIIP) at P50 is 2,419 MMBOE in the Jurassic formations of the Bijell structure”.
So, MOL only gave a P50 figure then – allowing nothing for the possible upside that GKP usually provides with its P10 and P1 figures.
Dalesmann (and others) have suggested for some time that Bekhme is likely to be 3 times the size of Akri-Bijeel, and TK seems to be inferring an 8 billion discovery.
*** So, my betting is that, when MOL announces the figures for Bekhme, they will again announce a straight P50 , that it will be within the next month or so when GKP is looking for purchasers for their stake in the Akri-Bijeel licence, and that it will refer to 8 Billion ***
In conclusion, on a pro-rata basis, if Akri-Bijeel (with 2.4 billion barrels of OIP (P50) and a 30% RF) is worth around $335 million, if (and it still a big IF) MOL announces a further 8 billion for Bekhme, we would have a valuation of 10.4 /2.4 x $335 million = $1.45 BILLION.
And that valuation COULD be upped significantly if there is competition for GKP’s share in Akri-Bijeel such that Sinopec, for example, comes in with a bid. they must be furious that they have just lost out to Vallares despite offering a much higher cash figure... apparently.
Yes, I certainly think the current valuations being suggested for our 12.8% share in the Akri-Bijeel licence are deliberately conservative.... and Bekhme will change the picture dramatically.
GLA, scaramouche
Wed 22:15 Bekhme -1... out of its depth! GKP.L 78
Good evening everyone,
I can see that Bonobo has made a fantastic effort in reviewing today’s proceedings, pulling together information from the half-yearly results, the analyst presentation, and various news articles. So, I don’t propose to do anything similar but just to say a huge thanks to him for compiling such a brilliant summary.
But since the big news today seems to be the proposed sale of Akri-Bijeel, which already has 2.4 billion OIP (P50 basis), I thought it might be useful to review how the other major prospect in that licence, Bekhme – 1, has been progressing.....
From 25 March 2011 RNS, we see that Bekhme -1 was spudded on 21 March:
“Bekhme-1 is the second exploration well to be drilled on the Akri-Bijeel block, 20 km to the north-east from the Bijell 1 discovery well (Operator's P50 estimate of 2.4 billion barrels of oil in place). Bekhme-1 will target prospective intervals in the Jurassic and the Triassic with a planned depth of approximately 3000 METERS.”
From 23 May 2011 RNS:
“Bekhme-1, second exploration well on the Akri-Bijeel block operated by Kalegran Ltd. (a 100% subsidiary of MOL), is drilling ahead with 12.25 inch hole at a depth of 1,776 METERS, in the upper sections of the Jurassic.”
From 16 June 2011 AGM operational update:
“Bekhme-1 exploration well on the Akri-Bijeel block is drilling ahead at a depth of 2,828 METERS”.
Then, from 25 August 2011 Proactive Investors interview with Ewen Ainsworth;
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/32363/gulf-keystone-petroleum-qa-a-prelude-to-tonights-one-to-one-hydrocarbon-forum-32363.html
Extract: “Q: Similarly are there any comparisons that can be made to the Akri-Bijeel discovery?
GKP: The Akri-Bijeel block is massive, even when compared with the adjacent Shaikan block.
Again, we made the discovery in the first exploration well on the MOL-operated block, Bijeel-1. It was a significant discovery too, and that has considerably de-risked future exploration drilling on the block
In March MOL spudded the second exploration well, Bekhme-1. This well is currently being drilled to over 4,000 METRE target depth.
""" So, a planned target depth of 3000 metres had become a planned depth of 4000m ****
Then, from today's 14 September 2011 half – yearly results
“Bekhme-1 exploration well drilling below 4,800 metres”
*** So, the planned depth is apparently now something like 5000 metres ***.
Furthermore, in the Dow Jones article that was published today, we see that Todd Kozel told DJ Newswires :
“The company has a 20% stake in the Akri-Bijeel license, in partnership with Hungary's MOL Nyrt. (MOL.BU).
Kozel said the license currently contains one 2.6 billion barrel discovery and another drilling prospect with the possibility of an 8 billion barrel discovery.”
As many of you will remember, Tony Hayward said recently that “big fields get bigger” over time. Well, it rather looks as though, in the case of Bekhme-1, “deep wells get deeper” too.
I rather wonder whether TK really thinks that there is the POSSIBILITY of an 8 billion barrel discovery. Bekhme-1 certainly seems to be turning into a bit of a monster.... and that possibility now looks to me highly PROBABLE!I would have thought that news on Bekhme-1 MUST be expected imminently, before the beauty parade begins in earnest.
Interesting too that TK expects the sale of AB (which will of course include Bekhme-1) to be completed in 90-120 days. Now wouldn’t that make a nice Christmas bonus!
GLA, scaramouche
DGA report is interesting..
http://www.gulfkeystone.com/uploads/dga_presentation14_september_2011.pdf
page 23
GKP
– Results are encouraging
– No water levels encountered at Shaikan and Sheikh Adi
(likely filled to spill)
– High flow rates on DSTs
– Extended production tests
– Wide variety in quality of the oils – low to high API gravities
– Assets not fully explored or appraised – lots of upside– Undrilled Permian potential
Hmmmm.... I rather like point number 2 above!!
GLA, scaramouche
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Best BB Ever MikeyAdmin 13
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The GKP board has the best researchers, the most knowledgable, and best News hounds of any board, with Scaramouche, Dalesman, Zengas, bonobo77, BBBS, GeoDude, Gramacho, MrAverage1, Pittsburghguy, PCF30, profith, Push2Gush, and many others.
We also have the most determined and dedicated long holders of any stock ever.
Which as long as the clutter is filtered out, is fine.
Mikey
========
Author scaramouche
Date posted today 18:36
Subject Moving on ... to another level!
Votes for this Posting Voted 11 times.
Message
It is funny how opinions change as everyone takes the time to consider the likely impact of the apparent $200 million placing and GKP “actively seeking to move from AIM to the FTSE”.
Yesterday, the initial reaction was nothing but concern over the potential dilutive effect of another possible 75 million shares in issue. Today, it is more about the transformational impact that this announcement could help to have on an investment which has already been life-changing for some.
Historically, there have always been concerns expressed when GKP embarks on a placing, but think about what has happened when it has chosen to take such a step....
Just after the Shaikan discovery in August 2009, GKP had 478 million shares in issue. The volume of OIP discovered (initially set at 300 – 500 million), was set to increase very rapidly with a range of 1- 5.3 billion with a mean of 2.8 BILLION announced on 22 October 2009.
But GKP was totally reliant on drawing on the £30 million SEDA funding (arranged with Yorkville in May 2009). Without it, GKP would very quickly have ceased to exist, although no doubt it could have been sold out at a healthy premium to the prevailing share price.
On 25 November 2009, TK freely admitted on CNN that it would be difficult to see GKP remaining independent for much more than 6 months. Six months later the SP had slumped by about 25% and GKP was in urgent need of funds.
Six months after that interview, on 25 May 2010, GKP raised £114 million by the sale of 152 million shares at 75p stating: “the proceeds (of the placing) will be used to progress the three Shaikan appraisal wells, the Shaikan-1 extended well test and production facilities, Sheikh Adi exploration well and the acquisition of further 3D seismic data over Shaikan and Sheikh Adi licences. The funds raised will also be used for any future increase in GKP's interests in Kurdistan assets.”
The SP had fallen 17% from 91p one week earlier to 76p on the day the placing was announced, and continued to languish in the doldrums while the intransigence(The quality or state of being stubbornly inflexible) of Iraqi politicians continued, making it seem unlikely that a Government would ever be formed. BUT, when the operational impact of the funds now available gradually kicked in, the SP rose to 149.5p (almost exactly double the May placing price) on 11 October 2010.
On Friday 15 October 2010, the SP was standing at 143.5p when news broke of a £100 million placing at 140p per share. On 18 October GKP confirmed it by RNS – 78 million shares at 140p, raising a further £109 million - and that day GKP’s SP closed up 10% at 158p.
On this occasion, the explanation for the use of the additional funds was very detailed but summed up by this statement –
“This additional funding, along with anticipated income from test production, will significantly strengthen the Company's financial position and will allow flexibility in the work programme. As such, the Company will have the opportunity to take advantage of any appropriate opportunities to further add value to its working interest position in Kurdistan”.
Two weeks later, GKP hit its highest closing price of 191p and the SP stayed around that level for the next fortnight. (Note: The period since then has been a turbulent one, but until now GKP has raised no further funds by this means).
*** So, news of placings clearly does not always have a detrimental effect on the SP, as long as the use of the proceeds is a positive one, although there is certainly a tendency for the SP to move to somewhere close to the placing just before it is officially announced. ***
Since October 2010, the extent of GKP’s operations has increased dramatically, and it is clear from the Interim report that income to GKP has not yet increased at the same rate. So, although we have sufficient funds to take the existing programme into Q1 2012, without further funding GKP would perhaps be constrained from moving on to another level.
Remember that sentence from the last fund-raising RNS - “This additional funding, along with anticipated income from test production, will significantly strengthen the Company's financial position and will allow FLEXIBILITY in the work programme.” - I wonder if we will see something like that used again!!!
So, to those who doubt the justification for this funding...
• Yes, we are due payment for local sales, but no-one knows yet how much is due as the accounts only took us up to 30 June 2011.
• Yes, when the BIR’s to Shaikan are sold, this will provide GKP with a very substantial further injection of funds.
• Yes, the Akri –Bijeel licence (as it stands today) is probably worth $350 million to GKP. But we will probably need to wait at least 90 days from now before we can get the benefit of those funds. And when we get the results from Bekhme (possibly 8 billion barrels OIP) we could be looking at a figure 4 times higher!
*** But the real importance of this $200 million fund-raising must surely be that it would move us on to another level ***
ONE FINAL THOUGHT
Back in August 2009, how many people thought that GKP would still be around 2 years later?
• With 12.8 billion OIP having been discovered already on 3 of its licences,
• With the heady prospect of proving up anything up to 30 billion barrels in Shaikan and Sheikh Adi in the next 6-12 months
• Seeking admission to the FTSE in December, and realistically targeting the FTSE100 soon after, if we reach around £3 per share (which IMHO we will).
• Preparing to build its own pipeline for up to 440,000 bopd exports• Looking at a T/O price well in excess of £10 per share (and possibly even double that if GKP lasts until mid/late 2012).
The point is that everyone hates dilution fearing that it could adversely affect them. Everyone dislikes the Institutional investors getting GKP for prices cheaper than they would probably have to pay on the open market. And everyone questions why a firm which recently claimed to be fully-funded for its current drilling programme should choose to raise further funds so soon afterwards.
But IMHO, the reason for the fundraising is actually quite simple – it offers GKP the FLEXIBILITY to move them (and us)... to another level!
And that level COULD soon be the FTSE100.
GLA, scaramouche
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Author Dragon_Ventures View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted today 06:06
Subject Kurdistan Pipeline(s)-How Many?
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Votes for this Posting Voted 12 times.
Message
The question I ask is how many pipelines are planned? I have re-watched the Vallares presentation + re-read the GKP Half Year Report and Forward Strategy Presentation & the pipelines discussed appear to be independent of each other.
The Vallares presentation refers to the KICE (Kurdistan Iraq Crude export pipeline). Its starting point is the Taq Taq field. See Vallares map:
http://i55.tinypic.com/11bq6gh.jpg
In the Vallares question and answer session the following is asked:
http://www1.axisto.co.uk/webcasting/investis/vallares/analyst-presentation-09-2011/
Q: Are your production forecasts dependent on Sinopec going ahead with the pipeline?
A: The production forecast going beyond the middle of 2013 require the pipeline in place. At the moment the area is limited by transportation. You can only run so many trucks a day from the fields to the tie in point.
It is discussed that above 110,000 barrels a day transport by trucking becomes a bottleneck. It is then stated that a pipeline is intended to be constructed along the length of the Kurdistan region, with a tie-in at Fyshkhabour near the Turkish border – due for completion in the middle of 2013.
Tony Hayward: The critical bottleneck in terms of production beyond 2013 is the presence of the pipeline. The FEED (Front End Engineering and Design) work has been completed . The right of way is has been identified and granted, so there is reasonable expectation to believe that it will be in place by the middle of 2013.
Tony goes on to say that the decision is with the KRG to decide what is the right financing structure for the pipeline. He states that he can’t see what would prevent it from being constructed and completed by Mid 2013.
It is stated that the design work suggests that it will take less than 1 year to build. It is a circa 240km pipeline. It is pretty straightforward terrain. It is basically downhill from South to North. It is not a major engineering task. Completion in a timely manner seems entirely reasonable.
Mehmet Sepil: It is a circa 240km, 24” pipeline. We have just had the FEED (Front End Engineering and Design) finished. In 1, or 2, weeks we are going to present it to the KRG.
What the KRG needs to decide, is at this point, there is a lot of interest to have this as a private pipeline by private companies. The KRG have not made the decision yet whether it will be a cost recovery pipeline that is owned by the KRG, or whether it will be built using other means of investment.
Mehmet Sepil: The target of mid 2013 is very realistic. It only has 1 pumping station. To build it within 12 months is a realistic timeframe.
Afren - When they did their presentation upon announcing entry into Kurdistan it was reported as:
“In terms of export capacity, our understanding is that a pipeline from the Taq Taq field going up Northwest, just courting the Barda Rash field and passing through the Ain Sifni block up to the Turkish border. The preliminary engineering for that has been done, and as far as we know an EPC contract for that pipeline has also been awarded with a view to completing that towards the end of 2012, early 2013. It's being financed by Sinopec and if the operators will pay a tariff, which will have a cost recovery element in it, and we haven't secured access to the pipeline yet, but we've had extensive discussions with the government about this, and we don't feel that there is a particular problem there. The pipeline is being sized as we understand it to accommodate production from Barda Rash, from Shaikan, from Ain Sifni, and also from Taq Taq. My understanding is that it could be around 1 million barrels a day capacity. So, we see plenty of oil in that when it comes on stream”.http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3AGKP.L&it=le&action=detail&id=8597139&rating=2
The Afren presentation notes seem to say that Sinopec are financing the whole pipeline and that it will also accommodate Shaikan production. If anyone has the money a detailed transcript is available to purchase via:
http://www.alacrastore.com/research/thomson-streetevents-Afren_Plc_Afren_Plc_Acquisition_and_strategic_entry_into_Kurdistan_Presentation_for_analysts-T4165538
GKP in their recent Half Year Report and Forward Strategy Presentation seem to state that the FEED work for the pipeline they are discussing has not been done yet and the Excel timeframe shows the FEED work as starting 7th Oct 2011. However, the end/finish date is consistent with the KICE pipeline as discussed by Vallares, in that GKP’s timeframe is for it to be completed by circa May 2013:
http://i52.tinypic.com/16bn7dh.jpg
GKP’s map in the forward strategy presentation only shows the pipeline as starting at Shaikan and finishing at Fyshkhabour:
http://i55.tinypic.com/352mb13.jpg
GKP quotes from the recent Half Year Report:
'A route has been selected for a dedicated pipeline to connect the Shaikan Field to the Kirkuk-Ceyhan export pipeline. The Company has completed a feasibility study on a pipeline capable of transporting a minimum of 440,000 bopd, which is being submitted for necessary comments and approvals. Once the necessary approvals have been obtained, Front End Engineering and Design ("FEED") work and ordering of long lead items will commence'.
'A route has been selected for the Company's dedicated pipeline to connect the Shaikan Field with the existing Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil export line. We have completed an appropriate feasibility study which is being submitted for necessary comments and approvals, following which we expect to expedite appropriate Front End Engineering and Design ("FEED") work'.
Is there to be 1 pipeline with GKP paying for the Shaikan to Fyshkhabour leg, and Sinopec (or the KRG) paying for the Taq Taq to Shaikan leg of the pipeline? Or, are we talking 2 separate pipelines, both due to complete mid 2013?
It appears to me that currently there are proposals for 2 seperate piplines to be built, both terminating at Fyshkhabour.
Dragon_Ventures
============
Date posted today 11:02
Subject Thinking like a FTSE 250 Votes for this Posting Voted 75 times.
Message
Last week’s presentation states:
Actively pursuing a move from the AIM to a Premium Listing on the Official List of the LSE
• We are the leading Kurdistan-focused operator and will be among FTSE 250 companies by market cap
• Appointment to the Board of three additional high-calibre Non-Executive Directors
I refer points in the London Stock Exchange listing document, link below:
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/home/guide-to-listing.pdfPage 111 –has a timetable/schedule prior to admission.
Quotes in this post come from this document.
My question is, could we be closer to FTSE 250 than expected?
It was interesting to see the proactive-investors article last week indicate that there is a very strong relationship between Corporate Governance and share performance. A day or so later we see that GKP is seeking to list on an exhchange where “the requirements for a Premium Listing are
the toughest in Europe”. A premium listed company is required to comply with UK Corporate Governance (the Code).
So -at what stage are we at in the transfer to main market ?
Firstly, we have surely gone through this stage:
"Announcement of Intention to Float (‘AITF’)"
"The first time that a company provides specific confirmation of its IPO plans is in a public announcement known as the AITF".
N.B. The AITF was included in last Wednesday’s rns.
Tellingly, a Premium listing requires the following from the LSE:
“A company seeking a Premium Listing is required to satisfy the FSA that it has sufficient working capital for at least the next 12 months. On a practical level, this is generally satisfied by the working capital statement to this effect included in the prospectus and the sponsor’s declaration to the FSA”.
PLACING RUMOURS?
“Warrants or options to subscribe The total of all issued warrants and options to subscribe for equity share capital of the company must not exceed 20 per cent of its issued share capital”. OK, planned for...
This strong rumour of fundraising must be part of the pre-main listing book building? The recent increase in PR must be seen as part of a communication strategy to support the pre main market listing.
HOW QUICKLY CAN GKP MOVE TO MAIN MARKET AND FTSE 250 STATUS?
GKP have never included retail investors in any placing, despite the strong support from them. This will assist in a quicker move to main market.
“On average, the review and approval of a prospectus takes around 6-8 weeks for an IPO. The prospectus can be published once it has been formally approved by the UKLA. The actual timing of that approval will depend on the issuer’s choice of issuance method – for example, if the issuance involves a retail offering then approval and publication must occur sufficiently in advance of the beginning of the offer. A prospectus relating only to an introduction where no offer to the public is made may be approved as little as 48 hours prior to admission to listing”.
“ Among other things, the Code requires that (except for smaller companies outside the FTSE 350) at least half the board (excluding the Chairman) is comprised of independent nonexecutive directors”.
N.B. 3 new non-executive directors are either on the “to do list” or already checked off.
Is this fundraising the pre-main listing book building? Although our cash balace is highly respectable, particularly in this day and age and with the “perception of risk” in exploring/producing in Iraq. As Gramacho and others have stated it is neither possible nor desirable to hasten the sale of AB for these funds.
The recent increase in PR must be seen as part of a communication strategy to support the pre main market listing.
Is the rumoured placing part of the PRICING PROCESS for main market listing.
“The exchange of new shares for funds typically occurs three business days after pricing. During this three-day period,the shares may trade on a ‘when issued’ basis, meaning that the bargains are not settled until the listing becomes effective”
"With a Premium Listing comes the potential for inclusion in the FTSE UK series of indices which includes the FTSE 100 and the FTSE 250".
Access to these indices is often seen as one of the key benefits of achieving a Premium Listing since so many investment mandates – particularly in respect of the vast amount of capital represented by tracker funds – are driven by FTSE indexation.
HOW TO GET TO 250:
Quarterly reviews most common way for changes to be lagged. The committee that oversees the various FTSE indices meets quarterly on the Wednesday after the first Friday in March, June, September and December. Constituent changes are then implemented on the next trading day following the expiry of the LIFFE futures and options contracts, which normally takes place on the third Friday of the same month. The rankings of constituents by value are calculated using close of business prices on the day before the review, and companies must have a minimum trading record of 20 days at the review.
OR
Fast Entry
The second way a company can enter a FTSE index is if it is a new issue is larger than the required % of the full market capitalisation of the FTSE All-Share Index. In this case it will normally be included in the index after close on the first day of trading, and the lowest ranking constituent is removed.
Eligibility of equities:
Only the eligible quoted equity capital is included in the calculation of its market capitalisation.
NB The case of a placing will prove-up an increment to market cap Even though we are clearly in 250 territory).
Post dilution, it should be more pertinent (to us investors) to measure the EV difference rather than the markets cap. Several on the bulletin boards yesterday pulled out figures which demonstrate that, to date, the event of a placing has always had a positive effect on the sp.
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/home/guide-to-listing.pdf
So how will FTSE 250 status change us?
A FTSE 250 listing will see tracker funds compelled to invest and present new opportunities for managed funds who may not have AiM investments within their remit. CFD’s are not particularly my bag, GKP, like any new entrant, will be well researched by CFD traders.. The new listing will affect margin requirements for GKP – it might increase leverage and turn it into even more of a “traders share” than when it was on AIM!
GKP have previously quoted that they have over 2000 "retail investors" - many of these investors will have built significant ISA funds. Given comments made on BB and indeed (I would include myself) the ISA is a great way for UK tax payers to preserve GKP gains - previously only possible in a SIPP. It is not beyond the imagination to see how incremental hundreds of millions of GBP might be invested just on this basis.
Are we months, weeks or just days away from main market?
PS. Apologies to Ewen if this post is migraine inducing.
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KRG publishes contracts
In an effort to bring transparency to its oil sector, the Kurdish government is making public its controversial production sharing contracts.
An employee works at the Tawke oil field, which is administered by the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region. (MUHANNAD FALA'AH/Getty Images)
By Ben Van Heuvelen of Iraq Oil Report
Published September 21, 2011 The semi-autonomous Kurdistan region is publishing its contracts with foreign oil companies as part of an initiative to bring greater transparency to its oil sector.
Nineteen of the Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) 42 contracts have been published online so far. Kurdistan's minister of natural resources, Ashti Hawrami, said in a statement that the government was taking "the next step in implementing our policy of transparency and commitment to freedom of information in Kurdistan's oil an...
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14:10 All inside 24 hours.... scaramouche 43
Well, what an interesting day, after the recent turmoil surrounding the $200 million placing.
On reflection, I believe that the company’s action in raising these funds at what appeared to be a rather heavily discounted price of 140p has been vindicated by the fact that to do so was also a great success in what are undoubtedly very challenging global conditions. We should perhaps now re-focus our attentions towards what is happening now and what looks to be a very bright future for this company.
And just 24 hours on, the news today has indeed been pretty dramatic...
1) VALUATIONS
I notice that FT Alphaville have taken a clear break from tradition and referred in their blog to Investec’s reference to GKP valuation of “towards £8” per share, based on the Vallares/Genel deal. Recognition at last!
It is about time we saw figures of this kind of level mentioned in the media rather than just on this board! Remember too that the Vallares deal was NOT the best cash offer that Genel received, but the one which enabled both Genel and Tony Hayward to take advantage of the considerable potential upside in Genel’s assets. It is alleged that the best straight cash offer was about $3 billion (rather than TH’s $2.1 billion for an equal share in the business) .
We should not forget either that GKP has HUGE potential upside too, with more news not so far away. In particular Bekhme -1 news must be getting very close indeed and could have a massive bearing on what GKP gets from its share in the soon-to-be-sold Akri-Bijeel!
2) TRANSPARENCY
When I mentioned yesterday the need for a little more of this from GKP, I didn’t expect the KRG to take up the baton and run with it as well!
From the KRG website:
“As part of the Kurdistan Regional Government’s ongoing transparency initiative, the Ministry of Natural Resources is putting all signed production sharing contracts (PSCs) for oil and gas in the Kurdistan Region into the public domain”..... “The Kurdistan Region Oil and Gas Council, headed by Prime Minister Barham Salih, has decided to take the next step in implementing our policy of transparency and commitment to freedom of information in Kurdistan’s oil and gas sector, in line with the Region’s oil and gas law of 2007.”
Yes, publishing ALL of the oil contracts signed in the Kurdistan region has to be one huge step forward IMHO. It should put paid to claims by Mr S that the KRG has something to hide as they were unwilling to allow Baghdad to review them. And now the contracts are all there in their full glory, it should soon be apparent that they are all very similar. That is a lot of companies and countries to antagonise if the ICG seek to make any amendments to their exisitng terms.
Furthermore, if what we have heard coming out of the Iraqi/Kurdistan media is true, it also sounds as though 'acceptance' of these contracts is getting that much closer, although it is certainly a constant battle trying to make head or tail of many of these dodgy translations!
3) THE SHARE PRICE
At the time of writing, I see that GKP’s share price has risen about 6% to 162p, after peaking earlier at 167p. As I stated previously, it seemed obvious that the market reaction yesterday morning was overdone, since the placing accounted for only 10% of the shares in issue, but the price initially fell to around that level.
The reference yesterday to an “over-subscribed” placing was a clear indication that there should be many buyers waiting in the wings. But I am surprised (although elated) to see a swift return to the 160’s that I commented was likely to happen quite soon.
All inside 24 hours - the GKP story never ceases to amaze!
GLA, scaramouche
================
Rothschild Scion Takeover of Kurdish Iraq Oil Co.
http://bit.ly/nXw61H
[SEE: Anglo-Turkish oil giant seeks N Iraq domination]
From Klosters to Kurdistan
Iraq-Erbil: Nat Rothschild’s world stretches from the coal mines of Indonesia via the aluminum smelters of Siberia to a legendary wine estate in France. And it just got much bigger.
Last week, Mr. Rothschild made a huge bet on the oil fields of Iraqi Kurdistan, one of the last great frontiers in oil exploration. His investment vehicle Vallares PLC said it will merge with Genel Energy International Ltd., a Turkish firm that pumps oil in Kurdistan, to create a $4 billion company.
The deal has raised some eyebrows in London. Critics say cash shells like Vallares provide a back door to the London Stock Exchange for murky emerging-market firms that might otherwise fail to comply with listing rules.
Yet when Vallares listed last June, it raised a whopping $2.18 billion—a mark of the faith Mr. Rothschild inspires in investors.
“These are very unusual structures because you get entrusted with people’s capital and get given the license to do what you want with it, on the basis of trust,” he says.
That trust is an asset Mr. Rothschild has leveraged into a complex network of business interests spanning the globe. The scion of a banking dynasty that expanded its wealth by cultivating relationships with influential people, he is equally at ease among Russian oligarchs, English aristocrats and New York socialites. Based in Klosters, Switzerland, he will spend more than 700 hours aboard his private jet this year.
But his impressive Rolodex has occasionally landed him in hot water. In 2008, he was at the center of a political scandal in the U.K. over his links to the Russian aluminum tycoon Oleg Deripaska. More recently, his ties to Seif el-Islam Gadhafi, son of the ousted Libyan dictator, have come under scrutiny.
These links haven’t done his business any harm. Ranked 67th in the Sunday Times’s list of the U.K.’s 1,000 richest people, with a fortune of £1 billion, he will become a lot richer thanks to the Vallares deal. For an initial outlay of $100 million, he and the other co-founders will get a 6.67% stake in the newly enlarged Genel. Mr. Rothschild’s share will be worth around $230 million.
But he insists he’s not in it for the money. “It’s incredibly enjoyable doing what we do—it’s as simple as that,” he says in an interview at his bankers, J.P.Morgan Cazenove, in the heart of London.
The youngest of four children and the only son of Jacob, Lord Rothschild, Nathaniel Victor James Rothschild was born in 1971 and educated at Eton, Britain’s most prestigious fee-paying school.
At Oxford he joined the Bullingdon Club, an exclusive dining society notorious for its rowdy parties, whose past members include the British prime minister, David Cameron. It’s not something he’s proud of.
“I certainly have no intention or desire to be a member of a club like that again,” he says. Since Oxford, he’s been teetotal.
He started off at investment bank Lazard. In 1996 Mr. Rothschild became a partner and later co-chairman of Atticus Capital LP, which came to epitomize a new breed of aggressive, globally connected hedge funds.
In 2002, he got to know the Russian billionaire Mr. Deripaska, at a board meeting of a Brazilian investment bank. The two are now friends and business partners: Mr. Rothschild is chairman of Mr. Deripaska’s En+ Group, which owns the controlling interest in aluminum giant UC Rusal. He is also an adviser to Rusal and was a cornerstone investor when it floated in Hong Kong last year.
It was his ties to Mr. Deripaska that triggered his first brush with scandal. In 2008, Mr Rothschild wrote to the U.K.’s Times newspaper accusing George Osborne, the Conservatives’ finance spokesman, of soliciting Mr. Deripaska for a political donation. Mr. Osborne denied the allegation.
His links to Seif Gadhafi also proved controversial. After getting to know him in the mid-2000s, he hosted him at a shooting weekend in the English countryside and at the family villa in Corfu.
Mr. Rothschild says the Libyan came across as a “very sensible guy,” and he was “shocked and surprised” to hear him on Libyan TV vowing to crush the uprising against his father. But he defends their relationship. “You forget that there was a great push to bring Libya in from the cold,” he says.
In his business career, too, it hasn’t all been plain sailing. In 2009, Atticus’s founder, Tim Barakett, shut down its flagship funds in the wake of the financial crisis. Mr. Rothschild went on to set up his own hedge fund, Attara Capital.
But he also shifted direction, launching Vallar, a cash shell to fund acquisitions in the mining industry. The choice of name was telling.
“Vallar was the name of the coin given to the first Roman foot soldier who successfully stormed an enemy encampment and survived,” he says.
In November, Vallar bought Indonesian coal assets for $3 billion and renamed itself Bumi PLC.
That success encouraged Mr. Rothschild to try his hand at oil. The spur was his friendship with Tony Hayward, the former chief executive of BP PLC, who was forced out over the Deepwater Horizon disaster.
“It was Tony’s availability and desire to do it that led us down the oil track,” he says.
The two got together this year to replicate the Vallar model with a new venture, Vallares, which floated in London in June. The day of the listing, Mr. Rothschild’s mother’s horse, Nathaniel, won the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Critics have denounced the Vallares model as a way of getting companies with poor corporate governance records onto the London market. Last year, U.K. financial regulators fined Genel’s chief executive and co-founder, Mehmet Sepil, for insider dealing.
Mr. Rothschild rejects that criticism as “simplistic.”
“We’re not just providing a mechanism for the companies to go public and then sailing off into the sunset,” he says. “We are intimately involved in developing these businesses on behalf of our investors.”
To prove his point, he says Mr. Hayward is “going to have a lot of his wealth tied up” in the new company and will be its CEO, while another co-founder, Julian Metherell, will be chief financial officer. Mr. Rothschild himself will be a nonexecutive director. And the enlarged Genel’s board, chaired by a former deputy CEO of BP, Rodney Chase, will be “absolutely bulletproof.”
He remains proud of his achievement with Vallar and Vallares. “It’s a good thing to have on your résumé, that you’ve helped build two distinct companies” that will probably both find their way onto the FTSE-100 index. “We’ve done our investors proud,” he says.
As well as his business interests, Mr. Rothschild is also part-owner of Chateau Lafite Rothschild, the centuries-old estate whose wine has recently become the most expensive and sought-after in the world. The Bordeaux property has found a captive consumer base in Asia: In October last year, a case from the 2009 vintage sold at auction in Hong Kong for £43,000, smashing all records and redefining the price of yet-to-mature fine wine.
It wasn’t always the case. The chateau struggled in the 20th century, and some critics say it underperformed against its peers in the ’60s and ’70s. “It was a millstone round the Rothschild family’s neck for 100-plus years,” Mr. Rothschild says.
He doesn’t see it as an investment, he says, but as “something I’m lucky enough to be a custodian of during my own lifetime.” “Like one of those ghastly Patek Philippe adverts,” he jokes.
Mr. Rothschild has a busy fortnight ahead. His engagements include the final of the U.S. Open tennis tournament in Flushing Meadows, N.Y.; a board meeting of miner Barrick Gold Corp. in Toronto; breakfast with a “prominent Indian businessman” in London (he won’t say who); the annual Forstmann Little conference in Aspen, Colo.; and a meeting of Mr. Deripaska’s EN+ Group in Jersey, followed by a trip to the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe horse race at Longchamp, France.
There’s a big incentive for that particular jaunt. “My mother’s horse is second-favorite for the Arc,” he says.
Source: wsj
==============
KRG Puts Oil Contracts In Public DomainPosted on 20 September 2011. Tags: KRG, oil contracts
As part of the Kurdistan Regional Government’s ongoing transparency initiative, the Ministry of Natural Resources is putting all signed production sharing contracts (PSCs) for oil and gas in the Kurdistan Region into the public domain.
The move, announced today by Minister of Natural Resources Ashti Hawrami, means that the PSCs, their attachments and amendments are now available to read online at the government website www.krg.org.
Dr Hawrami said, “The Kurdistan Region Oil and Gas Council, headed by Prime Minister Barham Salih, has decided to take the next step in implementing our policy of transparency and commitment to freedom of information in Kurdistan’s oil and gas sector, in line with the Region’s oil and gas law of 2007.”
The fresh release of documents follows the previous publication of the PSCs for the producing oil fields at Tawke and Taq Taq.
Dr Hawrami said that the originals of all PSC contracts have been submitted to the Energy Committee of the Kurdistan Parliament.
“These contracts have put the Kurdistan Region of Iraq firmly on the global energy map, and have helped to internationalise the economy here after years of enforced isolation,” Dr Hawrami said. “As a result, we now know that the Region has potential reserves of 45 billion barrels of oil and 3-6 trillion cubic meters of gas. We are exporting oil from the Region for the first time, with export capacity reaching 200,000 barrels per day by the end of the year.”
Dr Hawrami added, “Our citizens can see that these contracts have provided the right balance between risk and reward, attracting world class international oil companies from 18 different countries. Billions of dollars of inward investment have come to Kurdistan as a result; thousands of jobs have been created; the provision of electricity has vastly improved; and the exploration and discovery process has resulted in discoveries of oil and gas that will continue to benefit the people of Kurdistan and Iraq for decades to come.”
Most of the contracts will available to view today, the rest will be uploaded over the next few days. To access the contracts click here please.
The contracts, their amendments and attachments are organized by block name.
Click on a document and it will open in a new window. Some of the files are quite large, so patience is required if you have a slow connection.
(Source: KRG)
================
Updated Major Shareholders list
Number of shares in issue as at 23 September 2011: 854,118,448
Of the shares in issue 36,690,832 (4.30%) were considered not to be in public hands.
Rank Shareholder 1 Sep 2011 %
1 M&G Investments, 47,757,153 (6.27%)
2 TD Waterhouse, 43,808,459 (5.75%)
3 Barclays Personal Investment Management, 42,263,770 (5.54%)
4 Capital Research & Management Co, 39,837,913 ( 5.23%)
5 Halifax Share Dealing 38,878,467, (5.10%)
6 Gokana Trust 29,695,515, (3.90%)
7 Selftrade 24,939,614, (3.27%)
8 Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management 23,943,183, (3.14%)
9 Gibca Ltd 20,400,000, (2.68%)
10 HSBC Investments 17,338,615, (2.27%)
11 Baillie Gifford 16,507,297, (2.17%)
12 JP Morgan Asset Management 15,643,419, (2.05%)
Not including our new shareholder
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Wouldn't be surprised to see GS appear as our new big investor.
Silent until placing and suddenly a big upgrade in target price.
Could make a lot of sense if TK and GS agree to a placing at a discount to get GS in awith the assurance GS will use it's resources to get the SP up and handle the BO.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited has announced that it is activley pursuing a move from the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) to a Premium Listing on the Official List of the London Stock Exchange, subject to obtaining necessary approvals.
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Author MrAverage1 View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted today 09:59
Subject The Chinese, ...late to the TO tables Votes for this Posting Voted 83 times.
Message
With the GKP 12.8% WI "sale sign" now clearly hung outside the Akri Bijeel block - I thought it may be a good idea to post up an emerging pattern showing Chinas' late arrival to the Takeover Tables. To begin with I dismissed this as purely coincidental, but upon closer inspection it's a predatory tactic demonstrated by them on several occaisions.
Briefly put, they ( the Chinese ) are routinely quite happy to let others make the first move, and for these early movers to make the 1st initial bidding offer.
This "starter" price is reflected in the bidders necessary due dilegence based on available data such as reservoir characteristics / geology strata, Reserves, 2C Resources, & undrilled prospective upside Resources, recovery rates to date etc - through to a general field valuation representative to their offer.
With it's watchful eye and it's colossal aquisition war chest China has displayed a tendancy to play its hand at the latter stages and generally "trumps" all its rivals via a hefty premium offer (often accompanied with a partnership sweetener).
The Chinese NOCs are happy for other Oilers to do the necessary beginning spade work and thus let them show their early hand offer, ...and then strategically gazump this figure/s to steal and secure the prize !
Having spent months studying historic Takeovers anything on the >upside IMO can materialise and pleasently surprise on AB, ..and to attempt to align and pre-ratified Vallares and a cash strapped Genel that openly excepted the better (personally suited) cosy deal price and NOT an open market bidding TO price is difficult to use as an AB sale gauge or yardstick.
Let's not read too much at this stage into Ewen's earlier comment on the AB sale of ...."We expect many hundreds of millions of Dollars". IMO this is only a practical yet generalised starter price opener comment - broadcasted for the benefit of the wider world and targetted to those potential aquirer's. The Akri Bijeel total acreage is huge at 889 km2 and its Triassic & Permian upside potential similar to that of Shaikan is immense. AB1 at 2.4 Bln (Pmean) OIP, plus Todds sobering comment of the Bekhme anticline likely to be a ~ 8 Bln OIP discovery will attract many suitors, if you throw in an O&G Law and combine this with a confirmed Bekhme live elephant the bidding COULD become exciting. No doubt the predatory Chinese will stalk patiently and strike when comfortable, if this is the case expect fireworks.
Prior to the conclusion of any sale, AB could soon prove to hold 10 bln bbls OIP on a P50 basis (Bijeel1 & Bekhme), and potential further prospective Resources of ~10 bln bbls (Bakrman & Gulak). It is this potential - of such a huge field that will attract suitors.
Whils't generally (but not always) the Chinese favour proven oil reserves a successful Bekhme would significantly de-risk the remaining prospective Bakrman & Gulak, a general field value assumption should be attainable once Bekhme OIP is made known. Any cautious buyer waiting for full data & comprehensive details is likely to be leap-frogged over by those opportunistic Mayors/NOCs willing to gain an "early movers" advantage.
IMHO ....we could see anything between ~ $750 Mln - $1.1 Bln. (seriously).
The current fund raising issue whilst contentious will now act as a protection barrier to GKP. For those interested in pursuing GKPs WI sale at AB the signal to any would-be purchaser hoping to prey on a bargain - is that wer'e NOT strapped for cash and caught wanting with our trousers down, ...thus a higher sought value even if lengthy and protracted can now run its natural course.
An AB sale dollar is better spent on a matching head-to-head high impact exploration and appraisal regime with our new and keen partner/ operator Vallares on Ber Bahr - than sticking around Kurdistan's greatest sloth ...namely MOL.
You only have to look at MOLs 2011/2012 presentation to see that Gulak (exploration - late 2012), and Bakrman (appraisal - late 2012) - GKP will be long since gone by the time these findings are fully known.
Apologies for mentioning again, but for those doubting Thomas's MOLs header on their Kurdistan Upstream presentation on page 20 - really does sum things up:
......." Potential company maker with LARGE Resource potential ".
Anyway, below are six historic examples where the Chinese come late to the table yet fully loaded, ...it's certainly not the scraps that there after.
Incidently with Akri Bijeel in mind, examples 3 & 4 below show Chinese offers based at the time on limited knowledge of Reserves but prospects that offered huge upside Resource bases.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The first 2 Chinese "late to the table" offers took place in our own backyard in Kurdistan ......
1) June 2009:
Addax Petroleum receive and accept an offer of $7.3bn from Sinopec, for their 536 million barrels of oil reserves.
Sinopec successfully outbidded an EARLIER offer made by KNOC.
2) 7th Sept 2011:
Vallares buy Genel for $2.1 bn.
To kick start things off here - we had an intermediate cash offer on the 5th September from Chinas Poly Energy for $3 bln cash - with an accompanying message from Poly of "more cash to follow" if necessary !
As we know, Genel also received an additional offer of circa $3 bn by another stalking Chinese company in the final stages, but Genel management opted for the cosy TH pre-arrangement. ......This deal was closed prematurely and cut-short from its true conclusion, and thus is a poor price reflection to a true potential takeover value.
Chinas Poly Energy eyeing up Genel: Paragrapths 3 and 4 of the link below:
http://kurdishviews.blogspot.com/p/contact.html
3) November 2010:
A joint bid from GNPC & CNOOC - offer $5 billion to Kosmos Energy for it's 23.5% stake at their Jubilee Field in Ghana.
Note: At the time of the offer, 2 months prior to initial production, the Jubilee field was "ESTIMATED" to hold 1.5 bln bbls of oil. .....no mention here of any Reserves.
An EARLIER prior offer in August 2009 was made by Exxon Mobil for $4 billion.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704141104575588111375730330.html
4) September 2010:
CNOOC and Sinopec offer US$7 Bln for OGX's oil assets.
Sept 10th (Bloomberg) - Cnooc Ltd, and China Petrochemical Corp (Sinopec Group) may offer at least $7 billion for Brazil oil assets and a stake in OGX Petroleo & Gas.
OGX have 3.69 Bln bbls of POTENTIAL oil reserves at their Campos Basin blocks off the Brazillian coast. The majority of prospects were at pre-appraisal stage / close to production.
Other potential bidders mentioned in the Brazilian media report included Chevron Corp, Statoil and ExxonMobil.
http://www.energy-pedia.com/article.aspx?articleid=142029
5) August 2009:
Sinochem pay $878 Mln for Emerald Energy. It was rumoured at the time that an earlier initial & lower bid came from an "Indian" company prior to the Sinochem purchase.
The Syria based explorer Emerald Energy at that time - had low oil Reserves figs, but offered attractive growth potential.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/08/12/us-sinochem-emerald-idUSTRE57B1SF20090812
6) 2010:
Not technically a corporate gazumping exercise, but strong indications and humourous talk that both Chinese CNOOC and Chinese Sinochem wer'e in competition with each other. With both of them submitting separate bids for a 40% stake in StatOils Peregrino field in Brazil.
Turn the volume to high, it's only 30 seconds long ....and enjoy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMBibaVhFNs
Just goes to show as far as the Akri Bijeel sale is concerned .....it's never over to the fat Chinese lady sings, lol.
IMHO ~$1 bln is within the realms of possibility here.
GLA
MrAverage1
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Author scaramouche View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted Wednesday 23:05
Subject Sold ... or sale agreed?
Votes for this Posting Voted 66 times.
Message
Fabulous find Minilots (see 17:03 post) and good to see the board so positive today.
But I would like to take up the question of whether or not Akri-Bijeel could have been 'sold' or maybe 'sale agreed'....
As Mikey and others have said, it would definitely NOT be in GKP’s interests to sell their share of the AB licence until at least Bekhme-1 had been drilled and appraised.
So, it seems to me important that we understand where we might be with Bekhme-1 based on what we have heard from the BoD to date.
On 3 September 2011 TK appeared on CNBC and we speculated as to why he seemed so excited. In the transcript of that interview he referred to “a third licence with 20 BILLION BARREL POTENTIAL” This caused some confusion at the time as it was not immediately obvious which licence he was talking about. However, it later transpired that the transcript was incorrect and he actually said “the third licence” .... which was almost certain to have been a reference to Akri-Bijeel.
Indeed, one week earlier, Ewen had hinted at much the same in an interview with Proactive Investors:
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/32363/gulf-keystone-petroleum-qa-a-prelude-to-tonights-one-to-one-hydrocarbon-forum-32363.html
Extract: “Q: Similarly are there any comparisons that can be made to the Akri-Bijeel discovery?
GKP: The Akri-Bijeel block is massive, even when compared with the adjacent Shaikan block.”
*** So, around ONE MONTH AGO, both TK and Ewen were already expecting great things from Akri-Bijeel , and a field similar in size to Shaikan ***
Now, since we only knew of 2.4 billion barrels OIP (P50) from the first AB well (Bijell-1) announced in December 2010, this was a very interesting departure from the normal cautiousness coming from the GKP BoD.
So, why such a massive increase in their 'expectations' for AB? Normally, we have been led to believe that they prefer to manage shareholder expectations!
Well, we know that Bekhme-1 had been drilling since 21 March 2011, so it would be reasonable to deduce that, 5 months later, TK already had a pretty good idea of what to expect from it.
But how big would Bekhme-1 need to be to fit in with TK’s statement?
Well, the original target depth was 3000m, but that target had already increased significantly, indeed so much so that on 14 September 2011, the half-yearly report said “Bekhme-1 exploration well drilling below 4,800 metres”.
An article from Dow Jones newswires on 13 September 2011 also included this reference following an interview with TK:
“The company has a 20% stake in the Akri-Bijeel license, in partnership with Hungary's MOL Nyrt. (MOL.BU). Kozel said the license currently contains one 2.6 billion barrel discovery and another drilling prospect with the POSSIBILITY of an 8 BILLION barrel discovery.”
*** So, in mid-September TK also had reason to believe that Bekhme-1 could hold 8 billion barrels.***
And in a recent epic BBBS post...
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3AGKP.L&threshold=50&it=le&action=detail&id=8760355
.... BBBS explained that it was likely that this 8 BILLION might be equivalent to the P10 figure (i.e. a 10% possibility), but that it was more likely for Bekhme-1 to have something like 6 billion (P50) on that basis.
However, if Bijell-1 had 2.4 BILLION (P50), we might equally deduce that on a P10 basis the figure could be 3-4 billion. And if Bekhme-1 was expected to have 8 BILLION (P10) and Aqra (yet to be drilled) is a similar prospect to Bekhme, it is easy to see where TK might be coming from when referring to “the third licence with 20 BILLION BARREL POTENTIAL”.
Would this be sufficient for GKP to start their negotiations with prospective buyers?
Well, obviously it would because GKP had announced that AB was' for sale' and that it was expected to 'complete' in 90-120 days.
I agree with Mikey that it will take some time for MOL to confirm the results on Bekhme-1 through testing (maybe 2 months). BUT, if TK expected about 4 weeks ago that Bekhme-1 had 8 Billion barrels, I imagine that he now has even clearer indications if that is so. And I can see no reason why a deal could not be struck with a buyer on the basis of whatever figures are subsequently confirmed so that the deal could complete in 90-120 days as planned.
Indeed, I am particularly interested that, in the article that Minilots found this evening, it states: “In mid-September it (GKP) announced the sale of a 20% stake in the neighbouring Akri Bijeel block to concentrate resources on Shaikan and THE COMPANY HAS ALREADY BEEN APPROACHED BY SEVERAL INTERESTED BUYERS”.
So, discussions on the sale have certainly started! And we have already seen competition!
The only question remaining is if it is beyond the wit of one of those prospective buyers to make an offer 'conditional upon the results of Bekhme-1'.... and for GKP to be willing to accept it if it was “an offer too good to refuse”.
No, I cannot see how AB could be 'sold' quite yet.... but I can certainly imagine that it MIGHT be 'sale agreed'.
Exciting times!
AIMHO and please DYOR.
GLA, scaramouche
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Thu 23:43
Dear Todd Kozel do you ever reckon
3Dimensional
81
we will hear some news from GKP first that other people dont already know before we get the RNS? I mean we get all the placing news from the Alphamuppets (your buddies), we get OIP updates from dunesy (thanks god at least someone tells us) we get flow test smoke plume updates from the local security guards, we get forward thinking reserves updates and connectivity assumptions from our resident ledgend BBBS (he should be one of your NEDS)..........the list is endless Todd.
Coming to think of it does GKP even need a frigging Market Maker anymore, as the SP generally tends to abide by STMs charting predictions!
Infact do GKP even need us PI's as shareholders, being as they love dishing out some mates rates and cheap shares to billionaires you wouldnt think so, how abouts giving us a frigging jolly Todd, you know in the way of a proper RNS, just to let us know you do actually care!
Im begining to wonder, if we as PI's have become such a pain in your a55 Todd that your even bothered about us mere mortals anymore!
Well let me tell you something Toddy K, if it werent for the likes of us pains in the a55es your company wouldnt be where it is today, it is us long term investors that have stood firm and bought shares in your company in the good times and the bad, its us long term holders whom have fought tooth and nail when you and your company are getting slated or hammered by the media and markets.
Ive got the patience of a saint Todd, but all these broken timeframes for news you keep giving us and RNS's from Alphamuppets and security guards is starting to ever so slightly get to me, so if you really do read this board, as your FD Ewen told us, then please throw us a freaking bone Todd, a scrap, a morsel, just give us some 8loody news that we havnt already heard from a third party!
Finally, im sure i speak for the majority on here, weve been through absolute hell being shareholders of your company, as im sure you full well know, so its about time you showed us your appreciation Todd by giving us a belter of an intraday RNS or a monster one when the markets are closed!!
3D
==
===
08:45
Re: Great post 3d - But i still love dan...
bonobo77
48
'Mates Rates'?
No pleasing some people. The company has just raised $200m in one of the worst economic environments in recent memory. They did it in the blink of an eye. And while there is much conjecture on the reasons for that placing, shareholders can be in no doubt that we are in rude financial health at a pivotal moment for the company. This 'cushion' will protect us in any acquisition negotiations, be it for AB, Shaikan or the whole company. There will be NO fire sale. We CANNOT be compromised as a distressed seller. We hold all the aces.
That $200m could add the same amount to AB sale. We could be looking at $400m-$1bn for that asset. Even at the lower end of $400m, we'd be sitting with $700m+ in the bank. That's $2bn more than Addax had when Sinopec bought them (and their debt) for $8.3bn. And they had a FRACTION of our oil.
The $200m will also grease the wheels as we hurtle towards FTSE entry. It's possible that we won't get that far. The company is making all the right noises that it can go it alone for the foreseeable future. We have the cash in the bank. We have the oil in abundance. We have partners in the shape of Haywood at Rothschild. Malaysia's richest man is backing us at this level.
The ball has been firmly hit into the court of those who have been doing their due diligence on us for some time. We don't need to go looking for them. We don't need to 'parade' ourselves. They know where our door is if they want to come and NOC on it.
TK knows it. Mirabaud, GS and Investec (£8) know it.
What did the recent note say: 'It's just a matter of time'.
Our greatest enemy is not Shahristani. It's not the derampers, the MMs or Greek defaulters.
It's impatience. I can see that many are getting eaten by it.
Look how far this company has come in a little over two years.
And during turbulent times.
And ask yourself: how much longer can I wait for the big pay day?
Stop wishing for it tomorrow, but console yourself that it could come at any time, and when it does, you'll be in position.
-
Miny, good points, but it all depends on your strategy.
I'm invested until t/o and own all my shares.
I am happy to see the company make progress operationally and fatten the goose for sale. They are going great guns in that regard, so I am pleased to hold.
I just think that too many people got spoiled by the 2009-10 rally. There are many PIs out there who now expect multibag gains in weeks or days (though 2011 should have sobered us all up!). Such expectation is unrealistic and will invariably lead to disappointment.
I recently sold my share of a business I'd built up over 8 years.
It's both exciting and startling to realise that I am likely to make four times as much money from GKP in under half the time.
So if it takes 4-8 years from original investment here, I will have done exceptionally well ... and if you think holding shares in this company is painful, try running a company, balancing the books, touting for new business and managing the hopes and ambitions of over 30 people on a daily basis.
Believe me ... this is a walk in the park by comparison.
===
Author leesbillbob View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted today 04:48
Subject Transparency
Votes for this Posting Voted 5 times.
Message
I hope the contracts the KRG publicized on the internet were published in Arabic.I am sure the Iraqi people would want a basic understanding of who gets what and that their(the citizenry)interests were protected.The idea that their own people would cheat them must weigh on their minds.They could be cheated due to incompetence considering the lack of business experience in the ministry,or they could become victims of corruption.Lotsa speaches by an oil minister claiming he made a deal that served the interests of the Iraqi people and no publication of said contracts in Arabic.Transparency??????? I know this is old news but is the promise of doing the deals to benefit the citizenry just another broken promise?
Iraqi Oil: What is hidden inside the Oil Contracts from the 1st and 2nd Bid Rounds?
By Munir Chalabi
Sunday, April 24, 2011
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Over eleven months have passed since the signing of the oil contracts between the Federal Ministry of Oil in Baghdad and the International oil companies (IOCs) resulting from the first and second bid rounds. However, to this date none of these contracts have been publicly released or published in any foreign language. Amazingly, all the contracts are written in English and none of them have even been translated into Arabic by the oil ministry in Baghdad, for the Iraqi people or even their representatives in the Federal parliament in Baghdad to look at and to see how their future is going to be shaped.
I have now obtained access to some of the contracts. My sources have specified that I cannot publish them in full, but I can discuss several aspects of them, which I shall do here.
My analyses will not cover the consequences of these contracts for the future of the Iraqi oil and gas industries or the future relations between Iraq and OPEC and its effect on international oil prices, as I already have covered these important topics in my previous articles [see sources 1 & 2].
I will only examine two aspects of the contracts here: article 12 -- Approval of developments, plans and work programs and article 37 -- Governing law, conciliation and arbitration.
It should be noted that the contracts awarded so far will cover about 60% of Iraq's proven oil reserves [3]. These are standard contracts with the seven IOCs that will benefit from the 1st bid round (BP/CNPC, which have been awarded the 17.8 billion barrels [BB] Rumaila oil field; Eni/Occidental/Kogas awarded the 4 BB [updated estimation puts it at 6.5BB] Zubair oil field; and Exxon Mobil/Shell awarded the 8.7 BB West Qurna-1) and the nine IOCs in the 2nd bid round, including Shell/Petronas who were awarded the 12.6 BB Majnoon field; Lukoil/Statoil awarded the 13 BB West Qurna-2; and CNPC/Total/Petronas awarded the 4 BB Halfaya field.
Article 12 -- Approval of developments plans and work programs,
I will examine both the "Technical Service Contracts" (TSCs) signed between the South Oil Company of the Republic of Iraq (SOC) or the North Oil Company (NOC) with all the awarded contractors in the 1st Bid Round, and the "Development and Production Service Contracts" (DPSCs) signed with all awarded contractors in the 2nd Bid Round.
Article 12.2(e) states "If line items of an annual work program or budget remain unresolved after submission to senior management the parties agree that the operator will be authorised to act as though the most recent submission by the Contractor has been approved until such time as final resolution of disputed items has occurred."
This will allow the contractor to put forward major claims and the SOC/NOC will then have to pay for the time period that the claim stays unresolved and such claims could take years through international courts to be concluded.
Article 12.5 in the 1st bid round contracts and article 12.6 in the 2nd bid round contracts reveals that the "Contractors" will be fully compensated if the SOC/NOC should require contractor and operator to increase or decrease the rate of production from the contract area when it states: "During the periods when the rate of production is decreased, production curtailment imposed under article 12.5(e) or article 12.5(f), the remuneration fee bid adjustment under article 19.5(e) shall cease to apply and immediately after such SOC [or NOC] notice and the parties shall agree in good faith a mechanism to fully compensate contractors as soon as practicable, which may include, among other things a revised field production schedule or an extension to the term or payment of the lost income to contractor in respect of the estimated volumes not produced during the period for which the production levels are curtailed under article 12.5(e) or article 12.5(f)."
Where the justification 12.5(e & f) as stated in the contracts are:
12.5(e) For Government-imposed curtailment.
12.5(f) For curtailments due to failure of Transporter to receive net production at the transfer point "through no fault of contractor or operator."
This clearly specifies that if Iraq was instructed by any regular future OPEC production adjustments decision to reduce production in order to keep the price of oil in the international oil market at a reasonable level, then in accordance with article 12.5(e), the Iraqi Ministry of Oil will compensate the contractors for the quantity of oil that they do not produce, which will represent a penalty on the Iraqi people, while the IOCs will receive profits for doing nothing.
In addition, Iraq will pay the IOCs more money for not producing oil in accordance with article 12.5(f), as the majority of Iraqi oil experts are signifying in their studies that the Iraqi oil transporting infrastructure for transporting oil from the IOCs' transfer points to the main oil sea terminals in the Arabian/Persian Gulf or through oil transporting pipelines to new sea terminals in the Mediterranean are so inadequate that they can not see how Iraq will be able within the next 6 to 7 years, to increase its upstream and downstream transporting facilities from the existing capacity of 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to 10 to 12 million bpd while the Federal Ministry of Oil was unable in the past 8 years to even keep the transporting capacity at the 2.5 million bpd level.
Article 12.5 further states: "In case reduction of production of crude oil is applied as per article 12.5(e), SOC/NOC shall apply such reduction in a non-discriminatory manner to all of its Affiliates' production from the Republic of Iraq."
This is another big restriction on Iraq's economy and sovereignty, as it is very likely that for economic reasons oil production from certain fields will be reduced, whilst production is kept to its maximum capacity in other fields.
Article 37 -- Governing law, conciliation and arbitration
Article 37.4 will allow foreign commercial courts to decide the future of the Iraqi people -- the Iraqi people will have no say when it comes to their national interests, as the Iraqi laws will not even be considered. This section states "All Disputes arising out of or in connection with this Contract, other than those Disputes that have been finally settled by reference to either senior management or Expert, shall be finally settled under the Rules of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce by three arbitrators appointed in accordance with the said Rules."
Article 37.5 specifies the seat of arbitration is to be Paris, France. It is been established from past experience that this Paris arbitration will only recognize contracts as being accepted as commercial contracts and does not acknowledge any sovereign rights in their judgments.
Article 37.6 states "The language of arbitration shall be the English language. The award of arbitration shall be in English and shall be final and binding on the Parties to the Dispute. Judgment on the award rendered may be entered and enforced in any court having jurisdiction in recognition and enforcement thereof. Any right to appeal or challenge any arbitral decision or award, or to oppose enforcement of any such decision or award before a court or any governmental authority is hereby waived by the Parties except with respect to the limited grounds for modification or non-enforcement provided by the applicable arbitration Rules."
It should be noted that all the contracts are for twenty years and contain provisions to extend them for an additional five years, thus, enabling the IOCs to control Iraq's economy and therefore its independence and sovereignty for 20-25 years. In this clause, the Federal oil ministry which is not an elected organization, has taken the decision on behalf of all the Iraqi people to waive their rights to any future modifications to the contracts even if Iraq's future economic independence necessitated such modifications.[4]
Conclusions
1. Articles 12 and 37 explain the reasons for the secrecy surrounding the 1st and 2nd bid round oil contracts and the lack of real transparency by the Federal Ministry in Baghdad. Not only have the contracts not been made public, but they have not even been translated into Arabic, which should make every Iraqi suspicious of the motives behind all the secrecy covering the contracts to this date.
2. Article 12 shows that the margin of profits which were agreed on officially with the IOCs' contractors does not represent the only profit that the IOCs will receive from the Iraqi Ministry of Oil, as the Ministry of Oil will compensate the contractors for the quantity of oil that they do not produce, which will in itself represent a penalty on the Iraqi people, whilst the IOC will receive additional profits for doing nothing.
3. Article 37 is a very significant article in terms of setting up the economic future of the Iraqi people and their future sovereignty. Therefore it is not wise to leave these vital decisions in the hands of bureaucrats in the Ministry of Oil or, for that matter, in the hands of a very weak government, without allowing the Iraqi people to have their say on their future by ensuring that such laws can only turn into lawful contracts if they are at least passed by an elected parliament, as required by existing Law number 97 dated 1967 which is still in force, or by a public referendum.
4. There are some analysts who believe that the US oil companies lost out from the awarded contracts, since only two of them, Exxon Mobil and Occidental have been awarded contracts. In my judgment this was not the case, as today what we call the International Oil Companies are really no longer national oil companies operating in the international market, as was the case up to the 1970s. In today's market, what we call IOCs are in fact multinational oil companies (MOC), owned by the multinational financial institutions (mostly US), with share holders from around the globe, and not by one nation's share holders. It is more likely today that the external size of operations and profits of theses companies comes from projects from all over the globe rather than from one nation, as shown by the cases of BP, Shell and most others including CNPC.
5. The contracts awarded in the 1st and 2nd bid rounds confirm that the US occupation of Iraq which started in 2003 did achieve some of its targets. In particular the occupation succeeded in ensuring that the future control of Iraqi oil stayed in the hands of the multinational oil companies and not in the hands of the Iraqi people and their legislative body.
================
Capitalism vs Tribal & Transparency
Nimomastik
One might say that the problem with capitalism in a previously tribal based system is that its difficult to get anything done.
In the bad old days, people got paid off and life went on. Those on the street did what they were told or vanished, perhaps off for a spell in a cell.
Getting used to capitalism where everyone gets a say and people have to agree seems to be proving a little troublesome.
GL
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Big oil firms waiting to see what happens
Florian Neuhof
http://bit.ly/pte3eL
Oct 2, 2011
Tony Hayward's move into the Kurdistan part of Iraq will lead to renewed speculation over the entry of oil majors into the region.
Big international oil companies such as Shell, BP and ExxonMobil are already active in the south of Iraq, developing the giant oilfields of Rumaila and West Qurna.
But while the legal stand-off between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the central authorities over contracts with the majors is unresolved, companies with interests in Iraq proper will not dare venture north. The central government has made it clear it will exclude companies that sign agreements with the KRG from future licensing rounds. It recently barred the US corporation Hess from the fourth bidding round for 12 new exploration blocks after it entered a production-sharing agreement for the Kurdish Dinarta and Shakrok fields in July.
But Mr Hayward's Genel Energy does not cut a lonely figure in the north of Iraq. Of the more than 50 independent oil companies active in the country, more than two-thirds operate in the Kurdistan region.
A large proportion of these are small European and North American companies. DNO International, Gulf Keystone, Heritage and WesternZagros have already made sizeable oil and gas discoveries, while Hess, Aspect, Longford, Niko, ShaMaran, Sterling and Vast are exploring prospective fields. The largest independent oil companies exploring in Kurdistan include Marathon, Murphy and Talisman.
Dana Gas, KNOC, OMV, MOL, Sinopec and India's Reliance Industries are also prominent in the region, as are Turkish companies Petoil and Dogan.
In spite of the scarcity of payments, Genel is not alone in planning to increase production in the region.
Gulf Keystone announced last month it was investing US$200 million (Dh734.6m) raised on the London Stock Exchange to fund an exploration and appraisal programme at the Shaikan, Sheikh Adi and Ber Bahr blocks, which contain an estimated 12 billion barrels of oil.
business@thenational.ae
=====
13:37
SOMO:oil exports amounted to 2.101 milli...
SpikeyDT
8
SOMO: oil exports amounted to 2.101 million barrels per day in September
http://xendan.org/arabic/drejaA.aspx?=hewal&jmara=2770&Jor=2
http://bit.ly/oZx5Cq
Khandan - An official from the Iraqi Oil Marketing Company (SOMO), on Saturday, said that Iraq's oil exports amounted to 2.101 million barrels per day in September compared to 2.189 million barrels per day in August (August).
The news agency "Reuters" Falah al-Ameri, head the company, saying that the average daily exports in September from the southern port of Basra reached 1.767 million barrels per day, while the volume of exports from Kirkuk in the north of the country's 334 thousand barrels per day. The average selling price of Iraqi crude in September, $ 105 a barrel.
Furthermore, according to navigation data monitored, "Reuters," Iraq's exports of crude oil from ports to the South jumped 1.8 million barrels per day in September, its highest level since January (January) last year.
And exports from the ports of Basra and Khor Al Amaya about 1.7 million barrels per day in August (August) last year. And the total exports of September is the highest since the same amount exported from the south in January.
The international companies such as BP. BP and China National Petroleum Corporation, Italy's ENI to increase production in Iraq, which has the third largest oil reserves in the Middle East.
And flows through the oil as well as other export routes from Iraq, including the pipeline to Ceyhan in Turkey from northern Kirkuk oilfields.
In the meantime, sources said in the Iraqi North Oil Company said the authorities resumed the export of crude through Ceyhan pipeline - Kirkuk on Friday after repair leak caused the cessation of the flow of oil on Wednesday.
A senior official in the company Zlb not to be named, said exports resumed at a rate of 400 thousand barrels per day to 450 thousand.
Signed Baghdad agreements worth billions of dollars with international companies to increase production capacity within seven years to rival Saudi Arabia's largest oil exporter in the world, but everything depends on the ability of the Member State in OPEC to secure the oil fields, refineries and other infrastructure facilities against acts of violence suffered by the country since the invasion.
Violence has fallen dramatically in Iraq since the height of sectarian incidents between 2006 and 2007, but attacks still occur on a daily basis.
In a related development, media source from Basra Investment Commission, the Indian company specialized in the manufacture and packaging of oil pipelines is presented today, Friday, to the BIC to obtain an investment license with a capital investment of 200 million dollars.
He said Haider al-Moussawi told the "Voices of Iraq" that "a delegation from the company Jindal India headed by Vice President Fajah Chawla, visited the headquarters of the Authority, today (Friday), and met with the chairman and his deputy in his quest to obtain a license to invest to build a plant for the production and packaging tubes with a capital of $ 200 million and a land area of 160 dunums, "and the transfer of al-Moussawi from the company's representative as saying that the project" specializes in the production of oil and gas pipelines, filling a large part of the need for Iraq, also contributes to the reduction of unemployment, where will employ more than 800 labor local. "
For his part, President of BIC behind Badran ready body to provide "an area of land and the completion of the requirements for the project, the fact that the industrial sector is the real nucleus of economic development and the scope for job creation," noting that Basra "is open to the industry, a market and a promising pipeline, the fact that companies oil to the future expansion plans call for production companies and a competitive and high quality standards and meet the need. "
For his part, Deputy Chairman of BIC, engineer Haydar Ali Fadel told
===
Author scaramouche View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted today 10:09
Subject Expectations and aspirations.....
Votes for this Posting Voted 56 times.
Message
Hi Peakyblack,
I completely agree with the theme of your 08:50 post.
I think that sometimes the real picture gets muddled over a period of time and IMO your post does much to remove some of the confusion.
We have to remember that the news of the placing broke by a series of rumours in the media when the SP was around 170p. It forced GKP to put out a hasty and, to my mind, rather poorly worded RNS, which simply confirmed that they were looking at a number of financial options but, noticeably, did not deny the rumour.
This meant that everyone naturally assumed that, when news of the placing came, it would be somewhere close to that 170p price.
In that context, since the placing was actually done at 140p, this was something of a disappointment to us all (myself included), especially as it seems inevitable that, no matter how small the dilution (in this case 10%) the SP always manages to fall to somewhere around the price of the placing. I have little doubt that rumblings of disquiet will take some time to go away.
But as you say, the result of that $200 million placing should actually be beneficial to GKP and its shareholders in the medium term:
1) It satisfies one of the key conditions for FTSE entry, which would definitely NOT have been satisfied otherwise unless Akri-Bijeel was sold at a knock-down price.
2) It allows negotiation of the sale of Akri-Bijeel from a position of strength, and should ensure that the results from Bekhme-1 are fully analysed and interpreted before AB is sold. The difference in the amount that can be raised should IMHO massively outweigh any negative effects of the placing.
3) It helps to transform GKP from a company which, although fully-funded to early/mid 2012 could have been severely stretched in the event of drilling problems or further global unrest, into one which is now very well-funded for the whole of 2012.
4) It allows GKP to talk realistically about strategic plans which go way beyond 2012, including pipelines transporting 440,000 barrels of oil per day, and a gas pipeline too, without the normal sneering comments from various parts of the media.
In short, $200 million of funding (raised in difficult circumstances) could REVOLUTIONISE GKP and be excellent news IN THE LONGER-TERM for its shareholders... although some of the ‘short-termers’ will undoubtedly be unhappy about the negative impact on the SP.
I don’t deny however that the ‘feel-good factor' has disappeared here since the half-yearly report and Analyst presentation last month, since when GKP’s SP has fallen from the 180’s to 144p. But IMHO, the most important point to recognise is that GKP is now in a very much stronger position to obtain full value for its shareholders over time. In this context, I still don’t expect this to be more than 12 months before the fat lady starts singing about Takeover!
However, one point that I do hope GKP will learn from this episode is that it is very unwise to make comments that are not born out over time, or indeed contradicted very swiftly!
• We were promised that a Non-Executive Director would be appointed by the end of September, and we have to remember that even that was 18 months after Jeremy Asher resigned! There has been no news on this... and the number of NEDs awaited has even risen to THREE.
• We have seen the date when the 3D seismic information will be interpreted and delivered moved repeatedly intially from the end of June... now to probably sometime in November!
• And we have seen a statement that ‘funding was not required’ subtly changed to.... ‘funding was not required for the formerly agreed drilling programme’.
There are many other examples.
The BoD really does need to deliver on its promises of managing shareholder expectations, and that not only means being conservative with their OIP figures, or in their expectations on the money that AB is likely to raise... but also being open and honest about the dates that certain key events are likely to happen, and certainly not setting ANY false expectations.
In that sense, I sincerely hope that the optimism that GKP’s comments have generated on actively pursuing entry to the FTSE (which many have assumed means December) and the sale of Akri- Bijeel in 90-120 days (also completed in December) are realistic and will be supported as the story unfolds. I hope we don't have to go through further uncertainty as to when these events will transpire.
I also hope that TK does finally see fit to split his current role, keeping himself as CEO but allowing the appointment of a Non-Executive Chairman. This would IMO be a huge step towards ensuring that the perceived Corporate Governance issues are no longer seen as a stick with which to beat GKP.
It would take the spotlight off TK... and allow everyone to focus on the truly amazing assets that GKP, which was a tiny and almost bankrupt oil explorer in July 2009, now has in its portfolio - I am certainly very happy to have some of those assets in mine.
GLA, scaramouche
====
08:53
Re: iraq oil report
grimace
4
Is it not clear to the Kurds yet that Maliki actually has no intention of fulfilling his side of the bargain... Implementing the Erbil agreement that is. He has known all along known that he could retain power with the promise of implementing the erbil agreement as he knew he could string it out and in my opinion he has used the 'Sharistani card' to further hinder progress. If he really wanted he could have sidelined Sharistani but in my eyes he is actually more than happy for Sharistani to keep throwing spanners in the works.
I get the feeling the Kurds are the ones who are going to have to compromise otherwise Maliki and his band of merry men will just see out another term in office, whilst the disputes continue to remain. The KRG tried to introduce into the Erbil agreement a way to disband the govt. should the agreement not be honoured but that was not accepted, now they have no power other than to turn off the taps. If they do that then how far does that put the whole process back ? In my opinion it will mean we have to wait for further elections and that is a long time away.. It looks like they should have partnered up with Allawi in the first place as this would have removed the obstacles that are Maliki and Sharistani.
Just the way it looks to me from a distance.
More than happy to be corrected if any of my statements are wrong and likewise I am more than happy for someone to put a far more positive slant on the current political situation.
Regards to all.
======
Analysis: Cabinet oil law asserts executive power
http://www.iraqoilreport.com/politics/oil-policy/analysis-cabinet-oil-law-asserts-executive-power-6290/
By Ben Lando of Iraq Oil Report
Published October 6, 2011
As Nouri al-Maliki's administration pursues new legislation to structure the oil sector, one theme has become clear: the prime minister wants the Cabinet to have control.
Shortly after the Parliament energy committee submitted a draft oil and gas law for consideration, the Cabinet issued a strong rebuke and asserted its lead role in the legislative process. Then the Cabinet passed a draft of its own, which would concentrate authority over the oil sector in the executive branch, according to a review of the proposed law.
The Cabinet version, submitted Aug. 25, does give some authority to a yet-to-be established national oil company and a Federal Council on Oil and Gas (FCOG). But it also grants a primary leadership role and decision-making powers to the Cabinet and the Oil Ministry, which the Parliament's draft oil law aims to weaken.
Submission of the Cabinet's draft elicited immediate condemnation from leaders in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), the semi-autonomous northern region which assisted in drafting the Parliament version.
Any oil law will need to pass through the Parliament's politically diverse oil and energy committee. Its chairman is the oil expert Adnan Janabi, a member of the Iraqiya political bloc, which is led by ex-prime minister Ayad Allawi, one of Maliki's top rivals.
Janabi and the KRG appear to have the political leverage to force some sort of compromise – either a reconciliation of the two versions currently before the committee, or the drafting of a new version altogether.
Any compromise, however, will be hard to achieve: the differences between the two draft laws are sharp, and recent history has proven that some gaps are too wide for Iraqi politicians to bridge.
Iraq's oil sector has been virtually split in two since 2003. The central government and the KRG have charted their own courses: in a country where oil revenue fuels more than 95 percent of the national budget, control of the oil sector is power.
The 2005 Constitution calls for modern oil legislation, and a law was crafted by three Iraqi technocrats in 2006 – but it was soon disfigured by the ensuing political negotiations, and a tentative agreement in February 2007 dissolved months later. No oil legislation has made commensurate progress since then.
In the meantime, the KRG has signed more than 40 production sharing contracts with smaller foreign oil companies, while the central government has signed 11 oil and 2 gas technical service development contracts with some of the world's largest oil companies.
Altogether, on paper, those contracts would increase Iraq's production capacity from 2.75 million barrels per day (bpd) now to more than 13.5 million bpd in seven years.
The security of such investments remains in doubt. Without modern legislation to govern it, the oil sector is plagued by disputes over the role of the central and local governments, the authorities of the state and foreign oil companies, and the distribution of policy-making authority within the Iraqi government.
These disputes are mirrored in the two draft laws, which represent competing visions of Iraq's oil sector.
Federal Council on Oil and Gas
A key player in all proposed legislation since 2006 has been a proposed policy-making body, the FGOC. This council would include enough representatives from Iraq's political factions to issue decisions with authority, but would also include enough technocrats to minimize political squabbling.
The Cabinet proposal for the FCOG would include the "relevant Deputy Prime Minister" (currently Hussain al-Shahristani, the ex-Oil Minister and now Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Affairs); the ministers of oil, finance, and planning; the head of the Central Bank of Iraq; a ministerial-level representative from any oil-producing region; "an experienced and specialized representative" of any producing province not incorporated into a region; the head of the Iraqi National Oil Company, the head of the State Oil Marketing Organization, "and any other relevant company" following FCOG nomination and Cabinet approval; and up to three experts chosen and approved by the Cabinet. All would serve for a maximum of five years.
The Parliament draft of the FCOG makeup is: a chairman; vice-chairman; ministers of oil, finance and planning; a qualified representative from each producing region or non-regionalized province; and three experts. The chairman, vice-chairman and experts would all be chosen and approved by Parliament.
The two draft laws characterize the role of the FCOG differently. For example, the Cabinet version calls for the FCOG to "approve" oil policies and plans, whereas the Parliament version, outlining a stronger role for the FCOG, calls for it to "set and amend" oil policies and plans.
Additional key differences include the following:
•"endorse regulations" (Cabinet) vs. "issue instructions" (Parliament) on negotiation, contracting and company qualification standards;
•"endorse and amend" (Cabinet) vs. "prepare, approve, amend and adopt" (Parliament) contract models;
•"approve, decide on and amend" (Cabinet) vs. "study, decide on and amend" (Parliament) contracts for licensing oil and gas development.
Council of Ministers
The Iraqi Cabinet is currently the strongest governmental body in the country. Political agreements are often made behind closed doors and issued as executive orders, or passed to the legislature for rubber-stamp approval.
Consistent with this trend, the Cabinet has drafted a law giving itself a large role. It would draft any laws related to oil and submit them to Parliament; "endorse" and "supervise implementation" of the FCOG's oil policy; "supervise … exploration, development, production, transport and marketing" of oil and gas; "issue relevant regulations"; and "ensure" the FCOG and Oil Ministry consult and coordinate with oil-producing regions and provinces.
The Parliament version's tasks for the Cabinet are relatively simply: "submit recommendations" for proposed laws related to oil and gas to Parliament; and "ensure" Parliament and the Oil Ministry consult and coordinate with oil-producing regions and provinces.
The Oil Ministry
Until new legislation says otherwise, Iraq's oil sector is ultimately under the control of the Oil Ministry, which is the regulator, the operator, and the policy maker. The Parliament law aims to strip away the latter two roles and calls for the FCOG to approve regulations and instructions for oil policy, law, and planning implementation, which the ministry would then implement.
This is clearly is opposed by the Cabinet.
The two laws differ in how they characterize the ministry's responsibilities:
•"set" (Cabinet) vs. "propose" (Parliament) – "petroleum policies, laws and plans";
•"set" (Cabinet) vs. "propose" (Parliament) – "the most successful program and methods" for developing fields that have been discovered but not yet developed (the Parliament version requires FCOG approval);
•"present" (Cabinet) vs. "propose" (Parliament) – an exploration plan to the FCOG;
•"prepare" vs. "participate with the (FCOG) in the preparation of" (Parliament) – model contracts (the Cabinet version includes INOC in the contract writing process);
•"verify" vs. "audit" (Parliament) – "costs and expenses incurred by License Holders."
The Cabinet also gives itself additional responsibilities in its draft law, compared to the Parliament version.:
•"ensure the collection of revenues for the State resulting from the implementation of exploration, development and production contracts";
•"perform the procedures for Licensing Rounds related to activities in the field of exploration, development and production of fields and exploration areas," excluding certain fields already producing or assigned to INOC.
Iraqi National Oil Company
The FCOG, in the Cabinet law, is tasked with officially nominating the Iraqi National Oil Company (INOC) to develop producing fields and certain discovered but undeveloped fields.
"Development and production rights of the currently producing oil and gas fields shall be granted to the Iraq National Oil Company, as well as the additional exploration, development and production rights for adjacent undeveloped fields," the Cabinet version states. It's unclear what constitutes "adjacent undeveloped fields."
The Cabinet law also says INOC will have a to-be-determined percentage as a state partner in any of the other development deals for fields not specified.
Both versions allow INOC to compete in licensing rounds in Iraq and work outside the country.
Both versions also give INOC the responsibility for oil and gas pipelines and export outlets, though the Parliament version says that, after two years, the FCOG should revisit the question of which government body will run pipelines and exports, and make a definitive ruling.
A clause in the Cabinet version clouds the independence of INOC, stating that the Oil Ministry "alone shall be entitled to receive and market the produced oil and gas, and transport the same through pipelines."
The Cabinet version of the law, but not the Parliament version, also directs INOC to sell all crude production to the State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) "at a delivery price that covers costs plus a reasonable profit to enable the company to develop in the fields of exploration and production," and to sign service contracts with foreign oil firms to develop fields it's tasked with.
The rights of local governments
The relationship between the central and local governments has been a roadblock to political agreement on oil legislation, and the two drafts define the balance of power quite differently. The Cabinet would give local governments an advisory role, while the Parliament would vest them with more tangible authority.
The Cabinet version, for example, outlines the role of the region to "participate with the Ministry in the procedures for Licensing Rounds related to activities in the Regions for exploration, development and production of discovered undeveloped fields."
The Parliament version, on the other hand, cites the role of the region to "take the necessary actions for Licensing Rounds related to Petroleum activities in the Regions for exploration, development and production of discovered undeveloped fields."
It also tasks the region with monitoring and supervising oil operations, auditing the companies doing work in the region, and making sure the rules of oil policies are being followed.
In essence, the Cabinet version maintains central control over licensing and regulation, while the Parliament version balances responsibility with local authorities.
One seemingly minor difference that could have a major impact is that the Cabinet version of the law makes it easier for provinces to have a seat on the FCOG. While the Parliament draft law says a province must produce at least 150,000 bpd in order to be considered "oil-producing," the Cabinet version's standard is just 100,000 bpd.
Transparency missing
Both laws have identical requirements for publishing certain contracts, giving an open accounting of monetary transactions, and making tendering processes public.
The word "transparency," however, is not found in the Cabinet version, as opposed to a paragraph in the Parliament version further requiring open bids and published results.
To that end, the Cabinet version defines oil revenues as any oil sales, "bonuses or amounts received from oil contracts with Iraqi or foreign companies, and shall be distributed fairly among the people." It goes further and calls for a "Future Fund" to be created, "in which a percentage of the surplus of petroleum revenues shall be deposited to ensure the rights of future generations."
Status of contracts already signed
While the reorganization of the oil sector via a new oil law, whatever the version, will have a significant impact on future contracts, there are dozens of oil companies with deals already inked and rigs on the ground, waiting to see how their contracts will be viewed in the light of a new law.
The Parliament version set up a tri-partite review committee comprising the oil minister, the KRG's minister of natural resources, and the head of the Parliament energy committee. Decisions would be reviewed by the FCOG.
The Cabinet version, however, calls on the central government to revisit any contracts previously signed and revise them to be in line with the new law, which would then be reviewed then by the FCOG's independent experts division.
The draft law sets the same requirement for the KRG, but with seemingly incendiary language: deals must benefit all of the Iraqi people "taking into consideration the objective circumstances in which said contracts were concluded" – and with a final say by the FCOG experts.
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Exclusive: Iraq's two oil laws
http://www.iraqoilreport.com/politics/oil-policy/exclusive-iraqs-two-oil-laws-6294/
Hussain al-Shahristani (left), the deputy prime minister for energy and former oil minister, gives a press conference with Adnan al-Janabi, the chairman of the Parliament's oil and energy committee, in February 2011. The two men have spearheaded two competing versions of a law that would give definitive structure to Iraq's oil sector. (BEN VAN HEUVELEN/Iraq Oil Report)
By BEN LANDO AND STAFF of Iraq Oil Report
Published October 6, 2011
Over the past five years, the single most controversial piece of Iraqi legislation has been a bill governing the oil sector.
It would lead to a reorganization of the oil sector and, depending on the quality of the bill itself, could lead Iraq toward a more modern and technically sound strategy for oil development and revenue management.
But the draft laws – there have been many versions over the years – have been beset by the tribulations of politics.
The Iraqi Constitution, ratified in 2005, calls for modern oil legislation, and this year the newly formed government has renewed its efforts to fulfill that responsibility. Yet the urgency has also been watered down over the years, since both the central government and semi-autonomous Kurdish region have improvised the legal footing on which to sign multi-billion dollar deals that would boost Iraqi oil production.
The Parliament Oil and Energy Committee is now reviewing two different drafts, one proposed by the committee itself and another approved by the Cabinet.
Neither are on the formal agenda of the committee right now.
"I think that the best solution for the oil and gas law is that we receive another amended copy of the law from the Cabinet," committee member and Kurdish politician Bayazid Hassan said, adding that the political blocs that make up the coalition government and thus are similarly represented in the Cabinet should reach an agreement first.
"If the political blocs do not reach a deal about it, I do not think that either drafts of the proposed laws will be passed," he said.
In the interest of transparency and the free-flow of information, and with hopes of promoting an informed debate, Iraq Oil Report publishes the English translation of both laws, as translated by the Iraq Energy Institute, which is a formal adviser to the Parliament committee.
The Cabinet's draft oil law:1/33
The Parliament's draft oil law:1/35
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Tuesday, September 06, 2011
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