Canon's Court
22 Victoria Street
Hamilton HM12
Bermuda
URL: http://www.gulfkeystone.com
Primary Symbol & Exchange
GKP - Common Stock - London
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd is a holding company that, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an independent oil and gas company operating in the Kurdistan Region of Northern Iraq and the Republic of Algeria. In July 2009, Gulf Keystone concluded a partnership arrangement with Etamic, which resulted in the Company’s holdings in Kurdistan increase to four blocks with the addition of interests in Sheikh Adi and Ber Bahr Blocks. It is the operator of the Shaikan Block and holds a 75% in the Block. The Akri-Bijeel production sharing contract is awarded to operator Kalegran Limited (80%), along with Gulf Keystone (20%). Gulf Keystone will operate, and has an 80% interest in, the Sheikh Adi PSC. It has a 40% interest in the Ber Bahr Block, which covers an area of 208 square kilometers and lies to the North of Dihok. Second exploration well in Kurdistan, Bijell-1, spudded on December 11, 2009. The Ben Guecha Permit Blocks 108 and 128b, located in Algeria, were relinquished in 2010.
23/06/2011 14:02
http://www.aknews.com/en/aknews/2/248132/
Erbil, June 23 (AKnews) – The government in Baghdad has threatened dock Kurdistan’s budget because of disputes over the control of one of Iraq’s largest oil fields.
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) claims sovereignty over the Khurmala dome section of the Kirkuk oil fields. In 2008 there was a tense standoff between the Kurdish and Iraqi military after the KRG moved to obstruct the Iraqi Oil Ministry’s plans to develop the site.
The ministry claims to have lost $193.6 million while production was stopped at the site as a result. Therefore, it is demanding compensation and says it will dock the money from the 17% of Iraq’s budget that is allocated to the region.
A high-level delegation from Kurdistan, including Rozh Nuri Shawes, Iraqi deputy Prime Minister; Barham Ahmed Salih, Kurdistan premier and Ashti Hawrami, Kurdistan natural resources minister, is said to be on their way to Baghdad to attempt to prevent the cuts.
Baghdad claims that the site could have been producing 70,000 more barrels per day than it was during the dispute.
The State Company for Oil Projects, part of the Oil Ministry, awarded a $136 million contract in December 2004 to Iraq-based KAR Group to provide engineering and equipment for developing Khurmala Dome to a 100,000-bpd producer.
The Khumala dome is, strictly speaking, within Kurdish territory, but the Oil Ministry holds that the oil law puts it under its control.
KRG Minister of Natural Resources Ashti Hawrami said: "Khurmala Dome is not in a disputed area. It's in Kurdistan, period. People say KRG are not allowing them to work in Khurmala. What that really says is it's under KRG control and we'd like to go get it back from them."
Relations between Erbil and Baghdad over the issue of oil have been strained. Since 2003 the KRG has unilaterally awarded numerous oil contracts to foreign companies, something which the Iraqi Government says only it can do. As a result, Baghdad blocked production at the Kurdish oil fields until earlier this year.
By Fryad Mohammed
LH/AKnews
===
Josef Schachter: Get Ready for a Natural Gas Boom
http://bit.ly/iqTx9H
By George Mack | June 23, 2011 8:35 PM GMT
Josef Schachter: Get Ready for a Natural Gas Boom
Source: George Mack of The Energy Report (6/23/11)
http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/na/10014
Schachter Asset Management Analyst and Investment Advisor Josef Schachter, who provides oil and gas research to Maison Placement Canada clients, is recommending a group of Canadian companies that are maintaining the delicate balance between oil, on which he is bearish, and natural gas, which he believes will soon enrich both producers and investors. In this exclusive interview with The Energy Report, Josef shares some value-priced names he feels are poised for big gains, along with natural gas' rising price.
COMPANIES MENTIONED: DANA GAS PJSC DELPHI ENERGY CORP. ENCANA CORPORATION GALLEON ENERGY INC. IMPERIAL OIL LTD. NIKO RESOURCES LTD. QUESTERRE ENERGY CORPORATION SEA DRAGON ENERGY INC. STERLING RESOURCES LTD. SUNCOR ENERGY INC. TALISMAN ENERGY INC. VERO ENERGY INC. WESTERNZAGROS RESOURCES LTD.
Hill Inaction on Deficit, Debt Ceiling Could Leave U.S. Vulnerable to Rising Interest Rates
Free Term Life Insurance Quotes: Simple, Straightforward, Convenient
The Energy Report: You recently said that if gasoline prices continue to rise we should see West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil in the low-$70s in the third through fourth quarters of 2011 (Q311-Q411). That represents an approximate 25% decline from current levels. Does that mean that the North American economy will be in trouble?
Josef Schachter: That's the key. When you get $4/gal. gasoline at the pump, or $1.25-$1.35/liter in Canada, you start seeing demand destruction. If we look at the weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) data for the week ending June 3, we can see that demand for finished motor gasoline was 9.16 million barrels (Mbbl.)-down 268,000 barrels on the week. And year-to-date (YTD), it's down 0.3% to 8.956 Mbbl. per week. So, we're already seeing demand destruction in the States from the handle of $4/gal. In Canada, we're seeing the same thing; and Europe, of course, is showing much weaker demand. Japan also is showing much weaker demand, and we have the tightening of credit in China. Quantitative easing 2 (QE2) is now out of the way, so the stimulus is gone in the U.S.
There is probably a $30/bbl premium in the price of WTI oil, and 50% of that relates to Middle East issues with about 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) that have been cut off from Libya. If we see the Libya issue resolved in the next three to six months with Muammar Gaddafi going out, that production will come back on and will remove the pressure of the Arab Spring premium. The other 50% is the hedge and commodity funds.
If we see weakness in the economy, the whole commodity board will come down and we'll see the U.S. dollar rally. We believe oil prices will lose that $15/bbl premium held by speculators in commodities and exchange traded funds (ETFs). The combination of the two could take $30 off the price of WTI oil, which is just around $93.40 today. Remember, when you have weak economic conditions, you trade below fair value. Recall Q109, while the fair value price might have been $50 for oil, we traded in the low-$30s.
TER: You use technical analysis quite extensively in your research reports, more than many sellside analysts. What are the charts telling you?
JS: My background is fundamental. I have an accounting background and am a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), so I come at it from a fundamental point of view. But I have had healthy respect and training from the technicians during my +30 years in the business, so I do look at the charts. We were at $112/bbl of WTI, now we're at $98-and $94 is not that far away. If we break $94 on the charts, then it's going down and looks like low-$70s. So, I think you must have respect for, and use all of, the disciplines. But I come at it from a supply/demand point of view; and, while the price of oil ran to $112 due to concerns about supply removal in the Middle East, that could be reversed if Libyan production comes back on because it's a big producer.
TER: With $4/gal. gasoline, we've seen oil demand falling in the U.S. But what about natural gas, isn't the reverse true? At the $4-$5 per-thousand-cubic-foot (Mcf) level, shouldn't we be using a lot more gas? Isn't that equivalent to about $1/gal. gasoline?
JS: Yes, we could see natural gas prices triple and still be the fuel of choice. The inventory picture has been high, but that's coming down. Because of the Haynesville and the Marcellus and everything else, there was a perception that we have a natural-gas glut. We believe natural gas prices will go significantly above $5/Tcf this summer with big air-conditioning demand during the hurricane season. Over the winter of 2011-2012, we think NYMEX gas will trade north of $7/Mcf.
TER: Nat gas is quite a bit higher in Europe and Asia. Is there an arbitrage opportunity?
JS: There is currently no arbitrage capability(The purchase of securities on one market for immediate resale on another market in order to profit from a price discrepancy.), in terms of shipping natural gas from the United States to Europe or Asia. Remember, there are costs to do that. If prices in Japan are $10 or $12/Mcf and today we're trading at $4.35/Mcf for NYMEX July, there's an arbitrage there; but there are landed costs in building a facility. Cheniere Energy Partners L.P. (NYSE.A:CQP) and other companies are talking about this. It may cost $5/Mcf more to convert that into liquefied natural gas (LNG) and ship it to Japan due to distance, and it may not be enough of an arbitrage to attract the kind of capital needed.
TER: You're bullish on natural gas and bearish on oil. Do you feel like gas prices will rise at the expense of oil, with investable dollars being redeployed into gas and gas stocks?
JS: That's what we've been recommending to Maison's institutional clients. If you look at some of the big-name oily stocks, they've already come down a bit from where they were. For instance, Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX.V:SU; NYSE:SU) was trading at $47 in February, and now it's trading at $38. So, there's been a bit of a haircut there. The big Canadian producer Imperial Oil Ltd. (TSX:IMO; NYSE.A:IMO) was $54 in February, when WTI oil was at $112/bbl, and now the stock is trading at $44.56.
So, we've already seen a correction in the oil names, and we think that will continue, especially if we see another $20-$30/bbl come off the price of oil. Gas stocks have done the reverse. At the beginning of the year, Encana Corp.(TSX:ECA; NYSE:ECA) was a $29 stock, and now it's a $31 stock. That's not a big move, but it's gone up versus the oily names going down.
TER: Back in March, the Government of Quebec halted shale gas drilling until a safety evaluation could be completed. This could take up to two years and, with court challenges and environmentalists converging on this area as a battleground, it might take longer. What's your feeling on this?
JS: There's a pilot phase that will go on for the next two years. I believe six wells are forecast, two of which are being worked by a joint venture (JV) between Talisman Energy Inc. (TSX:TLM) and Questerre Energy Corp. (TSX:QEC). They're going to be monitored by the government, which will have people onsite. What the companies will have to do is deal with local people and environmentalists, get approval from the farmers and explain what's going on. They're going to measure the methane before and after they start drilling since the companies want to prove that they're not increasing the amount of methane from their activity. So, the industry has to prove its environmental case.
Quebec has a history of environmental legislation for mines; but in the end, it does approve the mines if they go through the environmental hurdles. I think the case will be the same here with natural gas. Companies might not be able to drill close to Montreal or Quebec City, but that's the same issue with New York. However, in our minds, there will be activity; it's just a question of when it happens. Remember also, there's an election in Quebec in two years; and I believe the government wants to wait until after the election on this issue. So, it's going to take that two-year window or more.
TER: What are the plays that you're recommending for investors today?
JS: We like companies in Western Canada, where there are multizone liquids-rich natural gas areas. Oil is in some of the plays like the Cardium Formation or the Doe Creek. So, we like companies like Delphi Energy Corp. (TSX:DEE), Vero Energy Inc. (TSX:VRO) and Galleon Energy Inc. (TSX:GO). We also like some Canadian-domiciled companies dealing with international markets like Niko Resources Ltd. (TSX:NKO), which is in India, Indonesia, Kurdistan, Trinidad, Madagascar and a number of other places.
In the past, we've been fans of Sterling Resources Ltd. (TSX.V:SLG), which is in the North Sea, the Netherlands and offshore Romania; however, currently we are on the sidelines due to their ongoing difficulties in Romania. We like WesternZagros Resources Ltd. (TSX.V:WZR), which has just completed a very exciting well, Sarqala-1, in the Kurdistan region of Iraq and will spud another well, called Mil Qasim-1, in July. We like a company in Egypt, called Sea Dragon Energy Inc. (TSX.V:SDX). It has the same management team that was successful with Centurion Energy International Inc., which was acquired by Dana Gas PJSC (ADX:DANA) in 2007. A lot of Canadian-domiciled companies are taking the modern technologies around the world and are doing very well with that.
TER: You mentioned Delphi and WesternZagros, which are your top-two picks. One thing that jumps out at me is that neither of these companies has had spectacular returns. So, is this your contrarian gas play?
JS: Yes. DEE got hurt because of their gas bias, but they always had land with liquids-rich capability. For example, in 2009, Delphi was producing about 15% oil and 85% natural gas. This year, it's going to do about 27% oil and liquids-and that number will go north of 30% by the end of the year.
It's going to generate over 50% of its revenue from oil and liquids; so cash flow will go up, and production volumes will go from 6,700 boe/d in Q109 to north of 9,500 boe/d by year-end. Delphi is doing the right things, in terms of the mix. It's going after the liquids-rich capabilities on its land, but the company always has the dry gas sitting in its inventory; so, when gas prices go back to $7-$8/Mcf, Delphi can move those assets. In the meantime, it can increase its net asset value (NAV) and cash flow by going after the liquids. It's similar to the gold business-when prices are low, you go after your best veins; and when prices are high, you go after your bad veins.
TER: Your target price on Delphi is $4, which implies a 60%-65% return, but I noticed the company's NAV is $3.78. It sounds like a very conservative target price.
JS: Yes. And that's because we're looking for Delphi to trade at a ratio of its cash flows, and we're looking at it annualizing about $0.60 in cash flow by Q411. The cash flow multiple should be no greater than the proven reserve life index (RLI); and, if you have seven-and-one-half years of proven reserves, you also have probable and possible reserves, tax pools and land value to protect the value for shareholders.
So, we take an approach in which a company's maximum cash flow multiple should be equal to its proven RLI. However, we didn't even use that in this case. So, you could argue that we may have an even higher target, but our view is to use a reasonable target that we can see makes sense. Then, if it gets to that target and the company is doing better than expected, we can always review it again and come up with a new target.
TER: Your other top pick was WesternZagros, on which you have a target price of $1.50. That represents a roughly 175% return. What are the risks here?
JS: Well, this is in Kurdistan and now the Baghdad and Kurdistan governments are getting their collective act together, in terms of allowing money to be paid to the players in the area, which makes a lot of sense to us. WesternZagros has a lot of cash on the balance sheet, so it has enough for the next phase of drilling. What we like about the company is that the Sarqala-1 well has tested at 9,444 bpd light, +40-degree oil. So, it may have a massive oil field there. WesternZagros' biggest shareholders are George Soros and John Paulson. Thus, we have big, international investors that believe this company has a big land spread, very attractive base and has proven that there is light oil on it.
TER: You went to the SEPAC Oil & Gas Investor Showcase in Calgary at the end of May. What was the atmosphere there? What did you hear?
JS: If a company is in natural gas only, it's not generating a lot of cash flow and not making any money. And if it has any debt, it has problems. So, almost every company was trying to draw attention to itself saying, "Let's find the liquids-rich or oily stuff and use the new technologies to harvest our lands." Nearly every company was carrying the flag of "liquids-oily" to draw attention.
From my perspective, they're doing what they have to do in these tough times. But it is getting easier. The basin in Western Canada is gassier, with small pools where the new technologies will help with the oil recovery. But in the long run, we're going to need a much higher natural gas price for the industry to be successful-not only to get a cash flow but also to start generating free cash flow and net income. That's when people can see that it's not just trading dollars in the industry, but also making real money.
TER: Can the small guys survive?
JS: Again, they've got to go get land where the big boys aren't pushing up prices exorbitantly. That means they will have to go into areas that are not 'hot.' Everybody loves the Duvernay or the Cardium, but land prices are rising above $5,000/acre. A little company can't do that today. So, it must have had the land in inventory that it holds or has farmed in from a big boy. But the key thing is that the company will have to be away from where the big boys are located. Companies like Delphi, Galleon and Vero were buying low-priced land in these hot areas before the big boys come in-and where the little guys now just can't compete.
TER: That makes sense. Josef, do you have any further thoughts that you'd like to leave with our readers?
JS: Just that we're cautious right now with QE2 over and with all the country risks in Europe. I think almost everybody agrees that Greece has problems that cannot be fixed. At some point, it will have to face the moment and resolve these issues with haircuts everywhere, which is deflationary. So, if that's the case, and we have a weaker U.S. economy along with Europe, China and Japan, we think there's a chance for a severe correction. So, we're not saying investors should go out and buy things right away, but rather build up their buy lists.
Sometime this fall, the market could have a 10%, or even 30%, correction. I'm not sure which one it will be; it depends upon how serious the problems in Europe become. And, of course, Americans are facing their debt issues. So, if we do see a severe 30% correction, some stocks could go down much more than that; so, you want to be ready to be a buyer. We're saying if you have oily names right now, sell them and lighten up your exposure. If you have to be exposed to energy, be in the natural gas-focused names, but sit there with some decent cash reserves underweighting the sector and be ready to be a buyer sometime this fall when the pain is over.
TER: Great advice. Thank you, Josef.
JS: Thank you.
After a successful investment stewardship at Richardson Greenshields of Canada Limited (RGCL), and the Royal Bank purchase of that firm, Josef set up his own investment advisory business, Schachter Asset Management Inc. (SAMI) in late 1996. Mr. Schachter has nearly 40 years of experience in the Canadian investment management industry. He was the market strategist and director at Richardson Greenshields, as well as a member of its Investment Policy Committee. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and is a past chairman of the Canadian Council of Financial Analysts.
Currently, Mr. Schachter and his research team provide oil and gas research coverage to the institutional clients of Maison Placements Canada and presents to, and consults, various industry companies and organizations. Mr. Schachter is a frequent guest on BNN and is regularly quoted in such news and financial publications as the Globe and Mail, National Post and Business Edge-the latter of which awarded Mr. Schachter its "Stock Picker of the Year" award in 2003, 2004 and 2007. He is also a regular on various radio shows including Michael Campbell's "Money Talks."
Want to read more exclusive Energy Report interviews like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and you'll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Exclusive Interviews page.
DISCLOSURE:
1) George Mack of The Energy Report conducted this interview. He personally and/or his family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of The Energy Report: None.
3) Josef Schachter: I personally and/or my family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: WesternZagros Resources and Delphi Energy Corp. I personally and/or my family am paid by the following companies mentioned in this interview: None.
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===
Gas is Vital for the Future
Posted on 25 June 2011. Tags: Chris Bowers, gas, Kurdistan, Nabucco
http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2011/06/25/gas-is-vital-for-the-future/
By Chris Bowers, British Consul General in Erbil. This article was originally published by Rudaw, and is re-published with permission by Iraq Business News.
Let me start by asking a question: why is gas less talked about than oil in Iraq? I am not sure why this is the case but it does seem to be true. In fact, the development of Kurdistan’s huge gas reserves is vital to energy security in Kurdistan, Iraq, the region and beyond. I am proud to say that UK energy companies are playing an important role in this.
Kurdistan is blessed twofold on gas: firstly on reserves, and secondly in its proximity to growing markets for that gas; markets that won’t wait. There is a growing and urgent demand for gas-powered electricity in Kurdistan’s neighbouring provinces. Iraqi gas should, of course, first be used to satisfy domestic demand and is great to see KRG reaching out to neighbouring provinces. This is an excellent example of Kurdish and Arab interests coinciding exactly and to the benefit of everyone.
Once domestic demand is sated, the second and growing market is Turkey. Turkey’s booming economy needs a significant amount of extra power every year. Naturally, much of that can be fuelled by Iraqi gas from Kurdistan.
Cementing the recent progress on Turkey-Kurdistan relations through deepened energy co-operation makes obvious strategic and more importantly economic and business sense. Turkey is a great market for Kurdistan and Europe as a whole has an interest in Turkey sustaining its strong economic growth.
But, Europe also has a broad interest in Iraqi gas from Kurdistan. There is a gas shortage in Europe and the gap between supply and demand is likely to increase in the long run. Gas is better for the climate than coal, is less costly initially than most forms of renewable energy and less controversial than nuclear.
Ensuring energy security is a strategic challenge for Europe, and the continent is committed to opening up a southern corridor to increase diversity, and hence, security of supply. The planned ‘Nabucco’ pipeline, which could take Kurdish gas into the heart of Europe, is an obvious option.
All of this is obvious from a market and industry perspective. Let’s hope, though, that politics don’t get in the way.
Much of this good news depends on Iraqi politicians finally passing the legislation necessary to put the hydrocarbons industry on a sounder legal footing. The draft legislation on hydrocarbons and revenue-sharing has been in limbo for far too long. It is time to get it sorted, as we say in Britain. Our understanding is that the gap between the various parties is relatively narrow. For a country dependent on hydrocarbon exports to the extent Iraq is, it makes no sense to play politics with such important legislation. Of course, it has to be right and well-drafted.
It is hard to see what can be holding up the legislation, and whose interests delay serves. Certainly not the Iraqi people. Needless to say exporting gas from Kurdistan would lead to potentially huge revenues, billions of dollars, to Iraq.
On the upside, passing the legislation would be a welcome sign that, whatever the state of the government, the Iraqi body politic is capable of passing much needed laws that are good for the investment climate in Iraq; a sign of progress and unity.
We in the UK will certainly be pushing for that in the weeks and months that come.
==
Interesting observations in your 12.57 post, PFC30.
And this sentence in particular stood out for me:
'Among the measures Maliki spoke about were "trimming the number of ministries, the abolition of some non-important ministries that were established ON BASIS OF ‘HONOR’, and the change of the cadres, on the level of ministers or director-generals, along with the continuation of the observation program.”'
Some of you may remember that the position of 'Deputy Prime Minister for Energy' was specifically created by Maliki when forming his government in December 2010, and Shahristani was offered the role in exchange for his previous position as Minister of Oil, a position now occupied by Abdul Karim Al-Luaibi. Prior to that there was only one Deputy Prime Minister.
At the time this was seen as something to enable Shahristani to continue in the Government without losing face, and it was anticpated that it would effectively sideline him.
Subsequently, there have been many indications in a number of different Iraqi news sources that Luaibi and the Oil Ministry have not been able to perform their roles effectively due to constant interference by Shahristani.
There is also no escaping the fact that Shahristani has contradicted Maliki publicly in February 2011, signed deals himself unilaterally (without Luaibi's involvement) and seems intent on pushing through the 4th round of Oil exploration contracts early next year... despite opposition from the Oil and Gas committee chaird by Al-Janabi.
IMHO, it is very possible that a certain 'ministry' which was 'established on basis of ‘honor'", could very soon cease to exist if Maliki has his way and succeeds in streamlining his Government.
GLA, scaramouche
=
iDealing offer DMA for trading shares or by CFD, though all orders are routed through themselves, just like normal Level 2 does.
The difference is, you can deal via Limit Order straight on the Book, or by Market Order just as normal Level 2.
Costs as far as I can tell, are £9 per trade, though there must be a minimum amount of trades required per month.
https://www.idealing.com/help/jacket.jsp?helpPage=services20060104.html
iDealing.com is an execution-only internet service designed for retail and institutional clients to buy and sell UK and foreign-listed Equities, Bonds, Exchange-Trade Funds(ETFs), Warrants, Covered Warrants, Foreign Exchange and other Securities and Derivatives in a live environment.
Orders can be executed against real-time quoted prices as well as through our Proprietary Direct Market Access(DMA) trading platform to several markets.
Immediate confirmation that the order has been dealt can be given online.
All UK registered shares and securities are held electronically within the Crest system under a nominee(s) owned or controlled by iDealing.com Limited. Under a nominee structure, shares and securities are registered in the name of the nominee but the client remains the beneficial owner.
https://www.idealing.com/help/jacket.jsp?helpPage=directaccess.html
Please do your own research reading all the contents.
--------------------------------------------
Most CFD offer DMA, but only attached the CFD's.
With DMA you would not be using a Broker or Market Maker, you become your own, having the choice to interact with other Market participants.
Just looked at the complaints about iDealing, not to good at all.
iDealing is an Australian Company
Normal L2 does not allow one to place trades on the Book,(no DMA access) which I guess is reserved to CFD traders because of the money made from them.
However, imagine if everyone with L2 had DMA, it would be crazy, lol.
I have a IgMarket CFD Account and IgIndex Spread Bet Account, but don't use them now, because I don't like the getting Margined out bit.
I use TDW and trade actual shares, though not doing to good off late. LOL.
DMA would be a useful addition to TDW's L2 Platform, being able to deal on the Book and "see" ones Limit Order, which at the present time I cannot see but know it is there if I use that option.
The problem is, that I don't trust it to be executed sometimes when brief glimses happen. .
DMA would be advantagious, but imagine if everyone had it, it would be chaotic with the different levels of knowledge.
Mikey.
==
Saturday, 25 June 2011, 08:43 GMT
KRG plans to build more water dams in the region
http://www.kurdishglobe.net/display-article.html?id=0AA931E756F84B781667BA869425FE01
The Kurdish Globe
The Kurdistan Region now has three large dams,
Director of Dams and Water Storage Akram Ahmed Rasul reported the agency has chosen more than 200 for dam construction in Kurdistan Region. Some dams are now under construction, including Hamamok Dam in Koya, Bawa Shaswar in Kifri and the Hassan Kanush Dam in Garmiyan.
The current budget includes 28 billion Iraqi dinars for dam construction. Reports say this budget doesn't fill the needs of the Kurdistan Regional Government Ministry of Agriculture's projects. The budget for dam construction was 96 billion ID in 2010.
"Many attempts and efforts have been made to make long-term strategic projects with international companies to build dams in the region," said Rasul.
Dam construction, experts and reports say, benefit the Region. According to international reports, climate change in the coming 20 years may result in drought and many rivers will dry. On the other hand, constructing dams may allow villagers to return to their villages and start farming again.
The Kurdistan Region now has three large dams that store enough water to produce electricity. Dokan Dam stores 8.8 billion cubic meters of water, Darbandikhan Dam stores 3 billion and Duhok dam stores 50 million cubic meters of water.
Eight large dams and 19 medium and small dams are under construction according to the Ministry of Agriculture's five-year plan. The dams are designed to help agriculture and produce electricity for Kurdistan Region.
===
As there will be a change in the Contracts for SH & AB, at some time GKP will have to be told by the KRG, from which we get an RNS.
When that time will be is anyones guess, though we all hope it will be soon after the 30th
Little confidence returning after the Greek Parliment voted in the Cabinet yesterday and the Dow increased by 109 points
Round all the stocks are low volumes, the Market looks like its waiting.
The first signs of a Greek settlement will be from the Banks.
I'm watching them closely.
==
DJ Schlumberger Sees Big Revenues From Iraq - Report
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Iraq will be one of the main revenue contributors to Schlumberger AG's (SLBS.VI) Middle East operations and will be bigger than most of the company's other markets in the region other than Saudi Arabia, the Financial Times reports Tuesday, citing an interview with Chief Executive Andrew Gould.
"Next year Iraq will be really big," said Gould.
The oilfield services giant has five rigs actively drilling, for BP PLC (BP) and ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM) among others, and will have ten in operation by next year. It has 450 employees on the ground and expects the number to rise to about 900 by the end of the year, the FT says.
-By Alexis Flynn, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 207842 9471, alexis.flynn@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 28, 2011 03:37 ET (07:37 GMT)
===
International body to monitor Iraq oil revenues
27/06/2011 14:55
http://aknews.com/en/aknews/2/248832/
Erbil, June 27 (Aknews) – An international transparency organization will monitor Iraq’s oil revenues in a bid to curb corruption.
Eddie Rich, deputy head and regional director of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), told Radio Free Iraq that the country "is in the process of undertaking the first reconciliation report which is planned to be completed by the end of October, and then the validation process will start soon after that."
He said the Iraqi government has until August 2012 to "complete a reconciliation report, disseminate the report, and have a validation, which is a quality assurance process to see how it has met EITI standards."
The report will provide accurate figures on the amount of money coming into the country from the sale of oil and gas. This will in turn make it easier to plan spending and detect the misappropriation of funds.
“These resources belong to all the Iraqi people, not just the government," said Rich.
Established in 2002, the Oslo-based EITI tries to strengthen governance in mineral-rich countries by improving transparency and accountability in the extraction of oil, gas, and other raw materials. It works for better governance by working to verify and publicize company payments and government revenues from raw materials.
Eleven countries are currently EITI compliant, including Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, and Mongolia. Some 24 other countries have EITI candidate status, among them Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Afghanistan.
By Patrick Smith
==
Re: One huge millstone....
scaramouche
42UP
Hi Makemmagic,
No, I have no reason to believe that Mrs K has anything whatsoever to do with the Excalibur case. The divorce case is a very sad and unfortunate side-show, I think, which IMHO does not warrant the attention it has received.
What I do believe though is that to focus exclusively on Rex W. as many have been inclined to do, misses other interesting facts, and I was glad to see that Justice Gloster reminded us that Excalibur was not a one-man band.
Just to be clear, my 'research' definitely had no bearing on the April hearing, as it was sent much later, but I was puzzled that there had been suggestions recently that both the late June and 26th July dates previously mentioned here had apparently disappeared from the schedule, and the court case had been set back to 2012.
I think we can see from today's action that, although the Law moves slowly... just like GKP's drills, the wheels do continue to turn!
CJ - thanks for the kind comments. I always believe that people should be 'proactive' if possible, and if they come across anything that might be very significant, it only takes a phone call or an email to Investor Relations to ensure it is not overlooked.
GLA, scaramouche
===
Article-awarded legal costs AGAINST Exca... View parent message
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 2 times.
Message
More about interim payments
http://bit.ly/iJt9O5
13 September 2009
More about interim payments
BY Jane Coyle
Interim payments are governed by Civil Procedure Rules (CPR) 25.6 and 25.7. The court may only make an order for an interim payment where certain conditions are met, as set out in CPR 25.7.An interim payment is a payment on account of any damages, debt or other sum which a defendant may be held liable to pay to or for the benefit of a claimant.
Interim payments - general procedure
25.6
(1) The claimant may not apply for an order for an interim payment before the end of the period for filing an acknowledgment of service applicable to the defendant against whom the application is made.
(2) The claimant may make more than one application for an order for an interim payment.
(3) A copy of an application notice for an order for an interim payment must-
(a) be served at least 14 days before the hearing of the application; and
(b) be supported by evidence.
(4) If the respondent to an application for an order for an interim payment wishes to rely on written evidence at the hearing, he must -
(a) file the written evidence; and
(b) serve copies on every other party to the application, at least 7 days before the hearing of the application.
(5) If the applicant wishes to rely on written evidence in reply, he must -
(a) file the written evidence; and
(b) serve a copy on the respondent, at least 3 days before the hearing of the application.
(6) This rule does not require written evidence -
(a) to be filed if it has already been filed; or
(b) to be served on a party on whom it has already been served.
(7) The court may order an interim payment in one sum or in instalments.
Certain conditions must be satisfied before the court will grant an interim payment:
25.7
(1) The court may only make an order for an interim payment where any of the following conditions are satisfied -
(a) the defendant against whom the order is sought has admitted liability to pay damages or some other sum of money to the claimant;
(b) the claimant has obtained judgment against that defendant for damages to be assessed or for a sum of money (other than costs) to be assessed;
(c) it is satisfied that, if the claim went to trial, the claimant would obtain judgment for a substantial amount of money (other than costs) against the defendant from whom he is seeking an order for an interim payment whether or not that defendant is the only defendant or one of a number of defendants to the claim;
(d) the following conditions are satisfied -
(i) the claimant is seeking an order for possession of land (whether or not any other order is also sought); and
(ii) the court is satisfied that, if the case went to trial, the defendant would be held liable (even if the claim for possession fails) to pay the claimant a sum of money for the defendant's occupation and use of the land while the claim for possession was pending; or
(e) in a claim in which there are two or more defendants and the order is sought against any one or more of those defendants, the following conditions are satisfied -
(i) the court is satisfied that, if the claim went to trial, the claimant would obtain judgment for a substantial amount of money (other than costs) against at least one of the defendants (but the court cannot determine which); and
(ii) all the defendants are either -
(a) a defendant that is insured in respect of the claim;
(b) a defendant whose liability will be met by an insurer under section 151 of the Road Traffic Act 1988 or an insurer acting under the Motor Insurers Bureau Agreement, or the Motor Insurers Bureau where it is acting itself; or
(c) a defendant that is a public body.
(4) The court must not order an interim payment of more than a reasonable proportion of the likely amount of the final judgment.
(5) The court must take into account -
(a) contributory negligence; and
(b) any relevant set-off or counterclaim.
Jane Coyle is a trainee solicitor at Lawdit and can be contacted at jane.coyle@lawdit.co.uk
==
Saudis May Not Pump Intended 10 Million Barrels After IEA Move
By Wael Mahdi - Jun 28, 2011 4:06 PM GMT
Saudi Arabia may not increase crude oil output to 10 million barrels a day in July as it intended, as the International Energy Agency’s planned stockpile release of 60 million barrels will keep the market “well supplied” during the month, analysts say.
Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg now expect Saudi Arabia to increase output in July to 9.5 million barrels a day from around 9 million in June to meet its international commitments, while meeting local demand that is expected to rise this summer due to a surge in electricity use.
Saudi Arabia aims to fulfill Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi’s pledge to raise production to help calm oil markets, after members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries disagreed this month over his proposed 1.5 million barrels-a-day increase in the group’s output.
Al-Hayat newspaper, citing senior OPEC officials, reported after the meeting that the kingdom will boost output to 10 million barrels a day in July, the highest level in more than two decades. Now, analysts say this may not be the case after the IEA’s planned stockpile release of 60 million barrels over 30 days, or 2 million barrels a day.
Barclays Plc analysts led by Paul Horsnell said in an e- mailed note yesterday that the use of strategic petroleum reserves, particularly when Saudi Arabia has restated its commitment to supply customers with the crude they need, may result in fewer oil exports from Saudi Arabia in the coming months.
“If this release is not coordinated with Saudi Arabia, the Saudis will cut production to neutralize the effect of the release,” Anas Alhajji, chief economist at Irving, Texas-based NGP Energy Capital Management, said in an e-mail today.
Saudi Oil Production
“The IEA’s move will give the Saudis sometime before they need to increase output to that high level,” said Jarmo Kotilaine, chief economist at National Commercial Bank, Saudi Arabia’s largest lender in terms of assets.
Kotilaine said in a telephone interview that Saudi Arabia intended to boost oil production to more than 10 million barrels a day by July, which would be the highest level in more than 25 years. Ongoing efforts by Saudi Arabia to dramatically boost output might prove counterproductive, he added.
Saudi extraction has come to rely heavily on water injection, which will ultimately curb potential production, he said. Moreover, the high sulfur content in Saudi oil means that the costs of refining it are higher than elsewhere, so the market may not take most of the additional output the kingdom is planning to pump, Kotilaine said.
While Saudi oil output will increase, one has to distinguish between the local and international drivers, said John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Riyadh-based Banque Saudi Fransi.
“Output will increase due to local demand but Saudi Arabia would find it hard to supply more oil for the global market, given current supply fundamentals and global demand,” he said.
IEA, Saudi Arabia Coordination
Market supplies will become tighter if OPEC doesn’t increase production, and while Saudi Arabia will “definitely” raise its output, that will take time, IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said in Beijing on June 25.
IEA’s planned stockpile release of 60 million barrels over 30 days, or 2 million barrels a day, is less than a quarter of Saudi Arabia’s output, and below the Middle Eastern nation’s spare production capacity, based on data compiled by Bloomberg.
Noe van Hulst, secretary general of the International Energy Forum said that the IEA’s stockpile release must have been made in coordination with large producers such Saudi Arabia.
“I’m not surprised to see such a move from the IEA, as discussions on replacing supplies from Libya were eminent in recent months,” he said in a telephone interview yesterday. “Coordination between producers and consumers was also intense and everyone is working closely.”
Analysts such as Alhajji say Saudi Arabia must have known of the IEA move in advance. “There are indications that the release might have been coordinated with the Saudis,” Alhajji said.
The main issue after the IEA release of 60 million barrels is “to see whether companies will use all of it, as historical records show that only a portion of the release is sold or swapped,” Alhajji said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Wael Mahdi in Khobar at wmahdi@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephen Voss at sev@bloomberg.net
===
The strange thing that came out of the ruling today was the argument that was put forward about the KRG not awarding a PSC to party's with no experience in oil exploration or Industry knowledge and Capital.
----
‘Rejection of Legal Claims’: One huge millstone....
scaramouche
180UP
A few people on this board are aware of some detailed research I did very recently relating to the Excalibur case, which I then submitted to GKP, who in turn forwarded it on to their lawyers.
I freely admit that I do not know whether the information I provided was new or significant, but I do believe that it helped to show up an interesting ‘connection’, which might be damaging to Excalibur in their lawsuit.
For obvious reasons, I cannot reveal the content of my research but, suffice it to say that I was encouraged to note in the case summary that it did not only refer to Rex, the main man in Excalibur Ventures (which many thought was just a one-man band) but also to his brother Eric.
A few cursory checks on Google reveal that the occupation of brother Eric is attorney-at-law.
If I read this correctly, it seems that it is not just Rex but any officer of ‘Excalibur Ventures’ who would be responsible for covering the costs.
I am also extremely encouraged that Excalibur are being ordered to make their interim payment of £250,000 costs within 14 days, and that the date of 26th July 2011 is also back on the agenda, although GKP had suggested in the AGM that the case was being pushed back to 2012. It really looks to me as though the boot as now firmly on the other foot, and Excalibur will need to be raising some big cash pretty sharply!
That said, there is no doubt in my mind, and never has been, that this is a frivolous claim for which the real beneficiary was not Excalibur.
After all, if you think about it, the SP has remained depressed by somewhere between 10% and 20% for almost exactly 6 months, and it is very possible that a ’third party’ has benefited enormously from this action… or might conceivably even have done so just prior to the action being brought.
I am also aware that some people here lost large sums of money on the date that the ‘Rejection of Legal Claims’ RNS came out, as the SP plummeted from 184.5p to 131 p (nearly 30%) within about half an hour of the RNS being released, before rebounding almost as quickly. As a holder only of shares, the damage to me personally has only been from the lengthy period that the price has been suppressed. But there are others who I think were much more adversely affected.
With this in mind, I wonder whether the reference to a possible ‘counter-claim’ by GKP against Excalibur might also be further stimulated(To increase temporarily the activity of (a body organ or part) by any PIs who can clearly demonstrate financial loss caused as a direct result of the Excalibur claim.
My sincere hope is that the officers of Excalibur, and anyone who has directly benefited from the legal claim at our expense are put under intense pressure by GKP’s lawyers, and that this lawsuit collapses very quickly.
My initial reading of this report is that Justice Gloster is saying to Excalibur “you are obviously chancers, and your costs are going to escalate substantially if you continue with this spurious claim”. Hmmmm…. I wouldn’t want to be party to possible “vexatious litigation”, or potentially implicated, would you?
(((
Vexatious Litigation
A legal action or proceeding initiated maliciously and without probable cause by an individual who is not acting in good faith for the purpose of annoying or embarrassing an opponent.
The U.S. legal system permits persons to file civil lawsuits to seek redress for injuries committed by a defendant. However, a legal action that is not likely to lead to any practical result is classified as vexatious litigation. Such litigation is regarded as frivolous and will result in the dismissal of the action by the court. A person who has been subjected to vexatious litigation may sue the plaintiff for malicious prosecution, seeking damages for any costs and injuries associated with the original lawsuit.
Litigation is typically classified as vexatious when an attorney or a pro se litigant (a person representing himself without an attorney) repeatedly files groundless lawsuits and repeatedly loses. Under the common law, the frequent incitement of lawsuits by an attorney constituted the crime of barratry. In modern law, however, barratry is viewed as an archaic crime and is rarely enforced. Attorneys who encourage vexatious litigation are subject to discipline for violating rules of professional conduct and may be suspended from the practice of law or disbarred.
Sometimes pro se litigants who have lost their initial lawsuits file new actions based on the dispute contained in the original suit. Because the judgment of the original case is dispositive, a court will ultimately dismiss these new actions. To avoid the expenditure of court resources, as well as the costs associated with the defendant's defense of repeated frivolous claims, a court may issue an order forbidding the pro se litigant to file any new actions without permission of the court.
Vexatious litigation is a type of malicious prosecution that enables the defendant to file a tort action against the plaintiff. A plaintiff in a malicious prosecution must prove that a legal proceeding (or multiple proceedings) was instituted by the defendant, that the original proceeding was terminated in favor of the plaintiff, that there was no probable cause for the original proceeding, and that malice, or a primary purpose other than that of bringing the original action, motivated the defendant. A plaintiff in such an action may recover, for example, the expenses incurred in defending the original suit or suits, as well as resulting financial loss or injury. A plaintiff may also recover damages for mental suffering of a kind that would normally be expected to follow from the original action.))))
IMHO, the next few weeks will therefore be mighty interesting!
That the SP has failed to react as yet is certainly a puzzle to me, but for the second time lately we have an RNS released within minutes of the close. I find that intriguing. In any event, it would be great to see the removal of at least 'one huge millstone' which has been hanging around GKP’s neck throughout the first half of 2011.
GLA, scaramouche
CJI must admit I though of the 'E-Deal when I read that, they were investors with no money or anything else seemingly to bring to the party. How did they qualify for PSCs?
Gulf Keystone awarded legal costs in the latest phase of its legal tussle with Excalibur
5:21 pm
http://bit.ly/matcYH
Gulf Keystone, which operates in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq, has some of the world’s most exciting oil targets.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP) and two subsidiaries have been awarded costs in the latest phase of their protracted legal battle with Excalibur Ventures, which is claiming up to 30 per cent of the company’s blocks in Kurdistan.
An interim payment of £250,000 must be made within 14 days.
It follows the injunction awarded in April preventing Excalibur from pursuing its arbitration proceedings in the International Chamber of Commerce until a final determination on its claim has been made in the English Commercial Court.
The date for the trial in London will be set after the next hearing on July 26.
“The companies continue vigorously to dispute and contest the allegations and claims asserted by Excalibur,” Gulf Keystone said in statement.
The English Commercial Court also gave its reasons for the April 8 ruling. However they weren’t contained in today’s announcement by GKP to the stock exchange.
Gulf Keystone, which operates in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq, has some of the world’s most exciting oil targets.
Its flagship Shaikan is deemed to contain anywhere between 5 and 15 billion barrels of oil, and this is just one of its prospects.
The company is in the middle of a high-impact drilling campaign that could utterly transform its fortunes and those of the entire region.
And with communication between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government improving, the group is even preparing to export the oil from its extended test facilities.
The shares closed at 131.5 pence, valuing Gulf Keystone at just over £1 billion.
==
Around 1% of total shares I guess.
How does this compare with other companies? Mikey?
Quite low wooody but an all time high for GKP.
Then look at this I got from DataExplorers.
Good Morning,
Short selling and “reverse torpedoes” – how they can help a long only asset manager
With so many pockets of swollen short selling catching so many headlines how can a long only fund manager take advantage of this? With the US defense secretary stepping down it seems a good time to use a military phrase that sums up a profitable strategy for this community. “Reverse torpedoes” was a term coined by Deutsche Bank to describe the art of buying shares in companies that are heavily shorted with the aim of capturing a profit when these firms rebound in price. We have zeroed in on research by DB’s quant team to highlight this phenomenon and explain how traditional asset managers can exploit a jump in price that is 1.5 times more likely than chance.
Visit www.dataexplorers.com/news for Data Explorers news including the full report with supporting charts and a short video.
As always, we welcome any comments - please do drop me a line at will.duffgordon@dataexplorers.com or call me on +44 (0)20 7264 7615.
Kind regards,
Will Duff Gordon
-
Mikey, any sell order, short or otherwise, is sold to a buyer!
The only thought here is that they had to fill a buy order at around 136, and borrowed the shares to do so, but the problem is how do they return them without losing money? They have to buy them for less than 136p in order to do so.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Profit from ones opened higher can negate the loss made on one opened lower.
Otherwise a swift raid, close, bounce and away we go.
If the Shorts have been opened by the Market Makers, how could they work it not to lose on them.
My Own Opinion to start a debate.
In rotation each MM could Buy their Shorts back via the Ask Limit trades in sequence as they opened them.
At the same time in sequence they could raise the Bid Price to Buy back their Shorts from Sellers as the Price rises.
Sounds feasible
Other suggestions welcome.
I suggested a while back that someone could be storing up shorts to give the SP a boost when they buy them back.
Well NOVM certainly sold a lot of Shorts yesterday, which they will have to Buy back, so they have been caught red handed.
If this is the same with all the MM's, whilst it stinks of manipulation, as at some point they have to Buy them back which will cause a boom in the price.
If it is all the MM's, then they may be accumulating for one or more someones on the QT, otherwise what other reason can there be.
I'm baffled folks, help.
So a question. Has NOVM an order to fill around the current price.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Or are the MM's or just NOVM short of shares so they have to borrow to fill an order.
==
What Does Contract For Differences - CFD Mean?
An arrangement made in a futures contract whereby differences in settlement are made through cash payments, rather than the delivery of physical goods or securities.
Investopedia Says
Investopedia explains Contract For Differences - CFD
This is generally an easier method of settlement because losses and gains are paid in cash. CFDs provide investors with the all the benefits and risks of owning a security without actually owning it.
The Short Selling you are thinking of, is conducted by CFD Companies who borrow shares from their Long Holders with own their Company.
Anyone holding shares via CFD can place a request on all their stocks, that non of their Longs are used for short selling.
I thought that if one bought a CFD position at 25% (IGMarket), then IG bought the other 75%.
You have explained perfectly how Spread Bets work on a £'s for points basis.
As I understand that CFD's are positions in actual shares, from which one receives all benefits from, so the underlying price paid is on a per share basis.
eg. One buys 10,000 shares at 138p with IGMarket.
Cost x 25% = £3,450, with IG covering £10,350, which IG please them selves how they cover. Total Cost £13,800
One then pays daily interest on the 75% until you sell.
''Since the date of the PSC, the Gulf Defendants and their shareholders have invested a total of $ 500 million in the development and exploration of the Shaikhan Block. In August 2009, Gulf Keystone announced that oil had been discovered in the Shaikhan Block. There is no evidence that Excalibur took any positive steps to assert its claim to any entitlement under the PSC until the events referred to below, although there may have been some without prejudice
discussions before that time''.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Surely £46,800,000 would be added to the Market Cap of GKP.
That would equate to .06p. Not much but every little helps.
Come on BIR RNS, lets burn the shorters
Mikey
==
You are here: Home » Oil » Q&A: The World Bank's Stephen Rimmer
Q&A: The World Bank's Stephen Rimmer
Construction workers restore the Victory Arch, a Saddam Hussein-era monument. Iraq's economy, which was devastated by decades of war and sanctions, is largely controlled by the state; international organizations like the World Bank are pushing Iraq to grow its private sector. (BEN VAN HEUVELEN/Iraq Oil Report)
By Ben Lando of Iraq Oil Report
Published June 30, 2011
In a post-conflict country whose oil sector generates over 90 percent of state revenue but employs less than one percent of the workforce, successful reconstruction depends on smart economic policy.
The World Bank is one of several international organization pushing Iraq to open up its private sector to foreign investment. According to Stephen Rimmer, a senior private sector development specialist at the bank, one key to success is the creation of competitive markets.
Iraq's government pl...
===
Are GKP on a different planet?
We certainly are due a run up back to higher levels if only to follow the the more buoyant markets.
Whilst volumes are ok (still low) we've seen a substantial change in sentiment over the last week since the 'world is nigh' posts by some scaremongers last week.
This week the FTSE100 is up almost 250pts+. That's almost 5% lol! 5% swings are significant on broader indices. They tend to provide a clearer picture of 'sentiment' rather than the less reliable AIM index where disconnects between the two exist like the norm. Recently, AIM has been battered against a falling FTSE. Hence, when the FTSE bounce came, I was watching closely to see how soon AIM follows.
Lets take a few stocks at a glance...
CHAR - some very dodge trading on that one and it touched 132p just a few days ago and is now testing a near 50% rise at 190p range. XEL low hit near 104p and tested 159p today. Another 50% rise in a couple of days.
These are just two stocks that are popular. There's many others out there that have bounced off 2011 lows. I'm certainly not foolish enough to call it a new bull run - but it's clear that the bearish tone has been eroded somewhat by the greek agreement which times perfectly with the kick off in earnings season next week. Markets like to swap from economic pictures to earnings/company specific ones and tomorrow sees a new quarter and a new half to the year. Should be interesting to see how the AIM indices get on as 'earnings season' tends to focus the minds on 'valuation' and 'pe' ratio's etc etc. Quite a departure from 'how low can it go'! It's 'lehmans all over again'. The world is nigh etc etc.
Anyway - what's the point of this verbal ramble? Simple - to see how GKP have been doing against the greater market.
Well - not so good.
When the FTSE was last at 5940, GKP was at 158p. We've had 'production news' since those days in early June and also an AGM / Operational update.
When the FTSE fell from 5940 to test 5650 range, we were following the beaten up AIM index and treading ground in the 127p range.
We lost 31p in that 'fear' induced wobble. The FTSE has bounced back and is looking strong. Many AIM stocks that got oversold have recovered.
GKP on the other hand - has traded on pony volume and recovered just 11.5p to 138.5p. Why are we not at 158p right now? CHAR bounced back strongly? Why not us. There was a time that we bounced back just like CHAR and co - nice 20p recovery days. These days - we seem to struggle to eek out a decent 3p or 4p again.
So what's going on???? Here we are with oip numbers higher, production flowing and kurd/baghdad situation looking better than ever before.
Don't fret. History shows us that we've been there before. In fact eerily, this time last year almost to the very day.
Chartists - fire up the quattro! July 1st 2010 was our low point. We hit 64p. 4 weeks later on August 1st we were at early 90's and by the time we entered the end of week 1 in Nov - we were just 4p shy of 200p. What a run. And not one oip upgrade or material operational new release to boot either.
So we are again - looking pretty 'unloved' as one broker aptly named us. Well, XEL was looking pretty unloved at 104p just a few days ago. So was CHAR. After a a few days - they are 50% higher.
If we followed suit, and put in 50% rise from 127p, we'd be hitting 190p tomorrow. And lets face it, we've increased our p90 OIP by over 200% and have 2 drills nearing transformational news. We deserve a big day up do we not?
Is it coming? Well, when was the last time we had a really good 20p+ rise day? Anyone remember?
So without further ado, I'm calling for a big spike up please Mr Market. If it's fair play to take us down with the fear, then it's basic decorum to return us back up when times are good. We haven't misbehaved or issued news that is negative - so deserve no alternative treatment.
50% might be a stretch near term, but looking back at July 1st 2010. That really was a massive turning point. A 3 bagger was returned from there. Hence, a small half bagger should be too much to ask near term!
with our share price at 138.5p, and SH-4 some 5+ months off - I'm not sure we really want any oil law approved before Dec.
Yes it would be great for the near term traders who are long and for many investors that have modest exit points in mind. But for those that want and feel we have £10+ capability - it's a big no thank you short term.
If that oil law clears the way for the southern based multi-nationals to enter kurdistan - then we'll have takeover offers at a time where we haven't been able to shore up the assets to their full potential.
Race against time indeed.
I guess the question is - do we think we could bat off a low ball offer.
As per my post last night - we are trading like we have the plague with such low volumes and a puny share price.
It feels like we are due a 'biggin' circa 20p+ up day, but can we have one of those without news, based on just a technical recovery?
HUB
==
Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Affairs Hussain al-Shahristani (L) and Adnan Janabi (R), the chairman of Parliament's oil and energy committee, give a press conference in Baghdad. Shahristani's energy committee in the Cabinet is taking up the long-stalled hydrocarbon framework law, while Janabi's committee is pushing legislation that would reconstitute the Iraqi National Oil Company. (BEN VAN HEUVELEN/Iraq Oil Report)
By Ben Lando and Staff of Iraq Oil Report
Published July 1, 2011
Two laws that would dramatically alter the contentious landscape of Iraq's oil sector – and potentially de-politicize its operations – will be taken up by two committees next week.
Parliament's Oil and Energy Committee is scheduled to debate a law to reconstitute the Iraqi National Oil Company (INOC), and the Cabinet's Energy Committee – led by Hussain al-Shahristani, the ex-oil minister, current deputy prime minister for energy affairs, and key ally of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki �...
===
Progress on Oil Law
scaramouche
2UP
with our share price at 138.5p, and SH-4 some 5+ months off - I'm not sure we really want any oil law approved before Dec.
----------------------------------------------------
Can't agree with you there, Hub.
IMO, it is the very absence of progress on the Oil Law and Contractual Issues that has enabled the SP to be suppressed for so long, with the constant fear that we could be vulnerable to a low takeover bid.
If we see clear progress towards that end, the SP would probably rise markedly, and it would be far easier for the BoD to reject unrealistic bids.
The news expected by the end of July on seismics plus probable completion of Sheikh Adi will also in itself increase the OIP figures significantly, so we don't need to wait for SH-4 to demonstrate the direction that GKP is going.
My major concern is that the SP consistently fails to relfect OIP upgrades, particularly evident since the 14 April 2011 RNS, so anything that illustrates an inability of the politicians to agree on anything IMHO will aways handicap the SP and make low-ball offers seem attractive.
To me, the sooner that Excalibur are given their marching orders and the senior Iraqi figures that prevent progress in Iraq are sent packing, the sooner we can all relax and watch the SP rise to nearer where it ought to be.
Only then will I be perfectly happy to see T/O bids and the potential initiation of a bidding war - I definitely don't want to see this starting now!
GLA, scaramouche
=====
Hi Hub,
The general market sentiments and global factors are indeed very important.
But GKP reached 200p on February 7th when Malliki said the contracts would be respected. It fell back up to 20% when Shahristani contradicted him, and Maliki bowed to that pressure a few days later.
Goldman Sachs themselves discounted their then TP of 234p at that time due to politics (before many of the other concerns arose), so I am pretty sure that the market sees it as THE major factor in inhibiting GKP's SP.
As you say, good to debate these things, but I remain convinced that the Oil and gas Law originally scheduled for June (a key demand of the Kurds in their 19 points agreement with Maliki), does need to go through as soon as possible.
GLA, scaramouche.
====
Have the gadget gurus at QinetiQ attracted a suitor?
Shares in the hi-tech defence company, which was spun out of Britain's Defence Evaluation and Research Agency, shot up 11.2p to 131.9p today on rumours that a US defence titan was mulling an 190p-a-share approach.
But gossips were divided on this transatlantic suitor's identity, with Lockheed Martin, Boeing and Northrop Grumman's names all being bandied about.
If a bid does materialise, some traders speculated that Britain's own BAE Systems, 1.1p cheaper at 317.4p, might also want to get its hands on QinetiQ's expertise. The FTSE 250-listed company, which has the slogan "making tomorrow work today", was set up a decade ago. In October 2009, it hired Leo Quinn as chief executive to impose a more commercial approach on the business.
Quinn joked in May this year that he deserved "20 out of 10" for the company's performance in the first 12 months of his two-year turnover plan. Under his watch, QinetiQ had moved from the red to the black, started paying out a dividend again and slashed its debt.
Gossips argued it was this impressive performance that attracted admiring glances from across the Atlantic.
"You always take them out before the job is finished," said one City slicker.
QinetiQ wasn't the only takeover yarn in town.
Sportingbet ticked up 2p to 57p on chatter that Ladbrokes will make an improved offer for the online betting group this weekend.
Bosses of the two companies are said to be haggling over price, but 85p a share was mooted today as a compromise.
"We could have an announcement on Monday and Tuesday," said one optimistic trader.
Blue-chips managed to extend their rally into a sixth day, with the FTSE 100 rising 15.05 to 5960.76.
The index has enjoyed a stonking run this week, and has gained 5% since last Thursday's close.
Banks hogged the first three places on the winners' board amid hopes of an end to the Greek economic tragedy. Lloyds Banking Group, still in favour on news of further job cuts at the black horse bank, advanced 1p to 50p. Standard Chartered put on 30½p to 1668½p and Barclays was 3.7p better at 260.2p.
ITV, which has been boosted by takeover tittle-tattle this week, gained 1.3p to 72.8p. The X Factor broadcaster was boosted by talk that it would restart its dividend payouts next month.
The commodities titans were a drag on the benchmark, however, as metal and oil prices slipped back and after gloomy data from China overnight.
Figures showed that factory output in the metal-hungry nation expanded last month at its slowest pace in 28 months. Randgold Resources slid 75p to 5180p, commodity trader Glencore dipped 4.9p to 486p and Mexican silver producer Fresnillo gave back 13p to 1389p.
Among smaller stocks, Iraq-focused explorer Gulf Keystone Petroleum - a "not for widows or orphans" punt - surged 6½p to 145p.
Traders cited reports on a Kurdistan government website that GKP was exporting 5000 barrels of black gold a day, far more than most sector watchers had expected.
===
Iraq amends draft oil and gas law
Friday, 01 July 2011 17:41
http://www.brecorder.com/world/middle-east/18854-iraq-amends-draft-oil-and-gas-law.html
BAGHDAD: Iraq has made some amendments to its long-delayed oil law which is being reviewed by the cabinet's energy committee, Deputy Prime Minister Hussain al-Shahristani's office said.
Iraq has signed a series of oil contracts with international firms expected to boost its status as a global oil producer but investors have been waiting for the approval of a hydrocarbons law to provide a more solid legal framework for exploration.
"Iraq's energy committee headed by Deputy Prime Minister Hussain al-Shahristani discussed in its meeting on Thursday the revised draft of the oil and gas law which was submitted by the Oil Ministry," Shahristani's media office said in a statement released late on Thursday.
"The committee has decided to study the draft and submit the remarks in its next meeting which will be held next week."
No further details were given about what amendments had been made and officials were unavailable for comment.
Iraq's draft oil law was approved by the cabinet in 2007 but has faced opposition, mainly from the semi-autonomous Kurdish zone, which is locked in a dispute with Baghdad over sharing revenue and control over some fields in northern Iraq.
The law would decide who controls Iraq's vast oil reserves, the world's fourth-largest, and is also aimed at attracting foreign investment.
Iraq has set a goal of boosting production capacity to 12 million barrels per day by 2017 from around 2.7 million bpd now.
The statement from Shahristani, who is responsible for Iraq's energy affairs, said Thursday's meeting had also been attended by Iraq's oil, electricity, water resources, science and technology and environment ministers.
Copyright Reuters, 2011
==
My simplistic view of BIR :
BIR's are like a farm in but held by a Government instead of a Company
- Exploration is risky. There is no guarantee of hitting oil or gold or anything else you are looking for.
- Govt may assign say 50% rights to the contractor at the start of exploration phase but they can add a clause saying if the contractor hits oil then the contractor's 50% share will be reduced to say 40% and govt will reimburse pro rated(or sometimes more depending on contract) exploration costs to the contractor
-this is a safety net to the govt as they dont have to exercise the back-in right if exploration is not sucessful and so they dont have to reimburse any costs to the contractor. On the other hand if exploration is succesful and the oil find is big, then the govt just pays the exploration costs for the 10% and in turn gets back the rights to 10% of the oil which could be a lot more than the exploration cost.
According to the Company’s Production Sharing Contracts (“PSCs”) related to the Shaikan block and the Akri-Bijeel block, the Kurdistan Regional Government (“KRG”) has a right to exercise the so called Option of Third Party Participation, i.e. to nominate the Third Party Participant and award the Third Party Interest. In addition, the KRG has back-in rights in both the Shaikan block and the Akri-Bijeel block. Should the KRG exercise these rights in full, it is anticipated that the Company’s interest in the Shaikan and Akri-Bijeel blocks will be 51% and 12.8% respectively. For the avoidance of doubt, there are no back-in or Third Party Participation rights applicable to the Ber Bahr and Sheikh Adi blocks.
Please note that it is the KRG’s prerogative to conduct negotiations with the aim of nominating the Third Party Participant and awarding the Third Party Interest. Gulf Keystone is not party to these negotiations and we expect to be notified once these negotiations have concluded. We cannot speculate as to what information will be provided to the Company by the KRG as a result of these negotiations.
Pursuant to the provisions of the respective PSCs, the Company anticipates that its past costs in relation to the Third Party Interest will be reimbursed to Gulf Keystone by the nominated Third Party Participant.
After the KRG has exercised its right by having nominated the Third Party Participant and awarded the Third Party Interest in the Shaikan and Akri-Bijeel PSCs, the respective PSCs will have to be amended accordingly since the nominated Third Party Participant will be assigned the Third Party Interest and will become a party to the respective PSCs. Gulf Keystone, as the Operator of the Shaikan PSC and the partner under the Akri-Bijeel PSC, will then issue an appropriate announcement.
===
Subject Re: Elena Good bye GKP Board View parent message
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 21 times.
Message
Scaramouche,
Excellent post. I agree with all your points.
Of course I am not advocating selling up in GKP and as you point out GKP is a unique position.
That is what makes any decision so difficult. I still keep a sizeable investment which I have ring fenced. I have made a profit in cash so these shares are free to me.
If the share price does rise or fall I have options which I never had when I was around 40% invested and no spare money to buy with. I have significantly reduced my profits by trying to build my number of GKP shares. I bought some in the 100p-106p range, only to watch it fall.
I also agree that GKP will have a very happy ending. I am entirely open with my financial position which could in the wrong market conditions make me a forced seller.
My strategy will enable me to hold until take over which I do not see as likely in the near term.
I do note that the SEDA fund raising is little and often and this may yet prove significant.
As soon as real news is announced of a possible take over these shares will rise so it is dangerous to sell up completely even though I can see further falls possible in the GKP SP.
At the moment I don't think any poster can predict with any certainty the short term path of GKP.
If you can afford to hold your GKP shares without having to sell for funds then holding GKP can be a good strategy. I just don't have the luxury of an income.
I would think it is a good strategy to have funds in place so you are able to average down GKP on the immediate run up to elections IF the opportunity is presented.
I want to leave this BB now as repetition of my position maybe misinterpreted by some posters who have not read my posts in detail as "stock bashing".
There are many good posters on this board who I consider good friends who I wish prosperity for.
Please don't let greed reduce your options.
I will still post on other boards and will read this one. I hope to return to this board at the end of Spring.
Thanks to Swooped for your kind post.
Good luck to all GKP holders. I wish you all well.
==
1: Sheikh Adi due to report having reached the triassic
2. The Shaikan Backin rights due - possibly Monday
3. Shaikan 2 is also in the triassic still without finding the O/W contact - how far down the flank will we have to go to find the O/W contact to prove up the filled to spill! Anyway Shaikan 2 is due!
4.Beckme on the Akri Bijeel block is at or near T/D
5. The share price appears to have turned upwards.
6. Confirmation of exports starting with 5000bopd ramping up to 20000 in the near future.
7. Companies now getting paid for the oil transported in the export pipeline
8. Articles in the press stating that majors and NOCs are being invited into Kurdistan
9. It appears that a new oil law is not far off ------ at last!
10. The Excalibur court case appears to have favourable overtones
11. The seismic covering Sheik Adi and Shaikan is due for further interpretation - guidance from the AGM indicates an increaseof 10-15% over the current mapped pay area.
==
Subject Small doubt's ...and Big Deals
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 82 times.
Message
There have been concern's of late albeit healthy and understandable ones amongst some pi's regarding through implication of GKPs likely prospectivity size resulting not only in hugely progressive number's of OIP, but on future large oil Reserves too - raising the necessary concerns of who amongs't the Major's, Super Major's or IOCs could afford to bid for GKP.
Affording them NOT neccesarily now - but say in an optimum 12 or 15 months time.
We already have our very own country Manager Adnan Samarrai publicly commentating that Shaikan alone could well hold > 5 Bln bbl's of Reserves.
Due to the likely high price of GKPs WI's, these could be split between 2 companies - thus automatically halving the cash outlay amount, but more importantly to Kurdistan doubling up on the combination of knowledge & production experience of 2 respected players.
Keeping the concern specific to the Majors and NOT the NOC's such as Sinopec, CNOOC and Pertamina who have demonstrated on countless occaisions their ability to pay huge inflated amount's (in certain instances beyond the Net PSC entitlement they bid for) to secure and insure their security of supply.
A couple of Major's that have paid / offered huge amount's when Brent was priced circa $75/bbl are:
Chevron = Paid $18 Bln for Unocal. (Unocal had oil reserves of 1.7 bln barrels).
Vedanta = Offered Cairn India circa $9.6 Bln for a majority controlling stake in it's business. (Cairn India had oil Reserves of 4 bln barrels, albeit of *low grade refinery discounted quality).
Even though GKPs Net entitlement is tough and most likely lesser in value when compared to the above deals (~ 6.5% Net would derive GKP just shy of $7/bbl with Brent priced around $105/bbl long term), it goes without saying that ....Big oil will attract Big interest / Big money !
Testimont to this of late - is one Company who made a huge offer (thank you Chicago Jack for mentioning their name) is BHP Billiton.
BHPs recent success in their commodities boom market has left them with a colossal war chest acquisition surplus.
BHP Billiton offered $49 Bln (£30 Bln) for the Austrailian oil group Woodside Petroleum in a cash deal 3 month's ago.
Briefly, the majority of newspaper's & newsblog's only reported part of the details in the bid for Woodsides full value.
The $49 Bln offer was ONLY for 76% of Woodside Petroleum. Before moving onto Woodside, BHP firstly attempted to secure the remaining 24% stake of Woodside held by Shell. BHP offered Shell (Austrailian Dollars) $9.1 billion for their 24% stakeholding in Woodside.
The full deal offer (including Shell's stakeholding offer) was therefore US$ 58.7 Bln in total.
Looking at the deal in 2 segments:
**********************************************************
Woodside Petroleum 2009 Reserves (n.b. * cannot find accurate figs for 2010).
Proved Reserves (1P): ~1.3 billion boe
+ Probable Reserves (2P): ~1.65 billion boe
+ Contingent Resources (CR): ~1.87 billion boe
http://www.oilvoice.com/Production-Reserves/Woodside_Petroleum/7a02e649.aspx
Combining both Woodside's Proved (1P) and their Probable (2P) figures = 2.95 Bln boe Reserves.
2.95 Bln bbl's Reserves based on BHP Billiton's offer to Woodside of $49 Bln = .................$16.61/bbl
**********************************************************
For completeness however, this figure should include Woodside's Contigent Resources of 1.87 Bln added. Plus Woodside's full upside portfolio which includes their north west Shelf project in Austrailia. Plus WI's in the USA, and the Gulf of Mexico.
So, if you throw into the pot Woodside's additional Contingent Resource's of 1.87 Bln boe making this a total of 4.82 Bln bbl's. And align this with the Grand Total sum offered by BHP for the whole of Woodside Petroleum including Shell's 24% stake valued at A$9.1 Bln, this equals = US$ 58.7 Bln.
The 'Grand Total' offer' of $58.7 Bln based on 4.82 Bln bbl's = ...................$12.18/bbl
**********************************************************
Personally I don't believe GKP would fit into BHPs portfolio or more to-the-point would the KRG accept them from a strategic partnership point of view. Arguably the KRG will be looking to best secure a % of Shaikan, SA, AB and Ber Bahr not necessarily from those offering the highest price, but with those experienced & best suited in developing, achieving and maintaining a maximum level of production over 20+ year's.
However, as the first company to bring a newly drilled well into production in the Gulf of Mexico since the moratorium was enacted in May 2010 BHP Billiton Petroleum has been producing about 17,000 bopd from the Shenzi field.
Interestingly too, the following statement is from BHP's web page:
....."Our core upstream oil and gas philosophy is to strive to be diversified globally while focusing on largely PROVEN BASINS, such as in the US, Gulf of Mexico, Australia, and the US Fayetteville Shale. We also have a range of promising prospects in the South China Sea, Trinidad, Algeria, Pakistan, and Malaysia."
Oil / gas - indirectly necessitating a Big money spend:
Shell have recently (May 2011) spent $13 bln on the world's largest floating platform known as the "Prelude production". This 600,000 tonne floating liquefied natural gas plant will travel out to sea moored to the ocean bed floor targetting a gas reservoir 200 km off the Austrailian coast. It's remoteness & distance to the shore makes constructing a pipeline uneconomical. The platform will superchill the gas into transportable liquid form. At present all such facilities are only on land and Shell have been persuaded to invest the $13 bln directly by China via China's growing appetite for oil and gas.
The value of higher priced Brent Crude of late is NOW deeming old expensive (unecomonic) projects as Economic.
As far as big money & some Mayor's are concerned, it's simply a case of necessity triumphing over affordability.
We already have the ballsy II's such as Baillie Gifford (2.6% from memory) and M&G onboard. As Kurdistan reopen's it's doors for commerce and further oil cost payment proof continues to filter through with GKP being next in line - IMO the next batch of the more timid / temperate type of II's will come aboard too and begin taking long positions.
Coupled with numerous soon-to-be drill results & 3D seismics IMO ...it's upward's from here.
No need to apologise Texas Tea 2 you wer'e spot on first time - the old grey wise one (drawing upon his experience over a decade ago at the kirkuk field) should be the main one we listen to. Samarrai has already indicated at this juncture - (with an OWC still to be penetrated + increase in LKO=Lowest Known Depth), that Shaikan TO DATE hold's ~ 17 Bln bbl's.
His recent comment ...."Shaikan alone could hold 5 Bln barrels of Reserves".
Working this backward's = 17 Bln bbl's x 30% RF = 5 Bln bbl's Reserves.
MrAverage1
Good luck to all longs,
MrAverage1
==
From the 16th June GKP prersenation and from Mols June Investor presentation.
SPUD DATE estimates for 6 totally new wells (which covers every major block structure bar the 2nd seperate structure on Sheik-Adi).
Shaikan-5 July.
Shaikan-6 August.
Berbahr September.
Shaikan-7 November.
Barkman Q4 (October onwards) but right after Bechme.
Bijeel appraisal well 2011.
Surface production facilities to be finished by Q2 for Bijeel (so likely these could commence soon/equipment ordering/build).
The estimates for WELL COMPLETIONS show -
Sheik-Adi-1 to be completed this month.
Shaikan 2 to be completed by end of July/mid August.
Bechme to be completed next month (August).
Shaikan 4 completing October.
Shaikan 5 completing October.
Shaikan 6 completing November.
Last reports by analysts said we could be on target for 10,000 bopd or more by year end (ie in 5-6 months) moving to 40,000 bopd next year.
That would be a significant number of Shaikan appraisal wells completed by November - and a fairly short space of time from where we are now so a lot of OIP numbers/info as a result - so will it be 7.8 - 10 - 15 or 20 billion bls or more in place ???????. Definitely a time now to focus on an catalysts and potential for a major increase in value and not day to day meanderings of a few pence up or down in the s/p.
Shaikan 7 apperars a longer estimated duration well completing around march 2012 (Shaikan 5 and 6 are estimated at much shorter durations on the graph on page 5).
BerBahr estimated completion around Februray 2012 but there should be lots of interim newsflow prior to that.
Likewise Barkman should be similarly around Februray 2012.
Bijeel production kicking in Q2 and an increase targetting 40,000 bopd+ from Shaikan.
The thing is, at what point could the company succumb to a bid as Shaikan appraisal completes ?
Shaikan would appear to be substantially drilled by November with a full 6 wells estimated to be completed, plus known Bijeel result, Sheik-Adi result and also Bechme result (4 major structures - 3 with oil so far ! ).
The analysts have also said post vist to Kurdistan that the other assets are in this for free. Only Shaikan as it currently stands is estimated at up to 275p but there could be much more value to come from Shaikan as a result of these current wells.
These next short few months are the most important time for value creation and potentially when a bid may also emerge.
==
Number of foreign companies in Kurdistan up 55%
03/07/2011 14:43
http://bit.ly/mdxR0N
Erbil, July 3 (AKnews) - 1,602 foreign companies have branches in the Iraqi Kurdistan region according to the latest figures from the Kurdistan Company Registering Directorate.
18 months ago, there were only 1027 operating in the region meaning there has been an increase of 55 per cent, the office said. There are also 10,100 local companies working side by side or jointly with the foreign companies.
Dlzar Ismael, the director for the office, said the number is increasing day by day and more companies are in line to be licensed.
By rebin Hasan
==
In light of the latest bout of negativity from some of the usual suspects, I thought I would take a look at how the transformation from explorer to exporter was shaping up.
Think about this...
31st January 2011 Kurdistan Operational Update RNS
The Shaikan-1 discovery well and the Shaikan-3 well are both now tied into the extended well test facility and ready to produce from the Jurassic age Sargelu reservoir. To date, the Company has sold over 63,000 barrels of oil into the domestic Kurdistan market, which has yielded valuable commercial and marketing information. The Company has signed an initial quarterly sales contract for 2,500 tons (for Sargelu crude oil, one ton equals 6.7 barrels) of oil per week to be sold into the Kurdistan domestic market.
*** At this point GKP was set to produce 2400 bopd for the local market ****
11 Aril 2011 Annual results for 2010
http://www.gulfkeystone.com/uploads/gulf-keystone-petroleum-ar-2010.pdf
p.12 Truck loading at the EWT facility has functioned extremely well and the facility is capable of loading more than 90 trucks per day with each truck taking a maximum of 30 tonnes of oil (200 barrels). The facility was originally designed to handle 8,000 to 10,000 bopd and while certain portions of the processing system can handle up to 18,000 bopd, other sections are limited in their handling capacity. In particular, the gas/oil separation unit will be expanded and a second oil storage tank will be added to enable the facility to handle a combined flow rate of up to 20,000 bopd. In addition, the facility will be modified to allow it to remove excess sulphur and, therefore, to meet oil pipeline specifications when the option to export arises.
90 trucks per day would be a 24 hour operation, and transport 90 x 200 barrels per tanker = 18,000bpd Plus.
It would involve up to 45 Tankers doing two journey's, or less working 24 hours
*** At this point exports were an aspiration only ****
23rd May 2011 Kurdistan Operational Update RNS
Extract:
Oil Export
Following a request from the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Kurdistan Regional Government ("KRG"), the Company is preparing to export up to 5,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) from its Extended Well Test ("EWT") facility at Shaikan. A number of operational, commercial and legal preparations are required in order to be able to implement this request which the Company is currently undertaking. Commencement of the export of oil is still subject to final approval of the KRG.
14th June 2011 Commissioning Phase of Oil Export Operations RNS
Extract:
The commissioning phase, involving final preparations and customary checks and tests on all elements of the process, including loading and transportation logistics, as well as metering and receiving facilities, is underway in order to enable the Company to steadily ramp up export volumes to 5,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) with an EIGHT MONTH TARGET of over 10,000 bopd.
16th June 2011 AGM presentation
http://www.gulfkeystone.com/uploads/gulfkeystones2011agmpresentation.pdf
On page 3 - Export market target of 5,000+ bopd, increasing to 10,000+ bopd BY END 2011
29th June 2011 Kurdish Oil Boom begins – By Ben Lando of Iraq Oil Report
http://www.krg.org/articles/detail.asp?lngnr=12&smap=02010200&rnr=73&anr=40542
Extract :
“And on Thursday, Gulf Keystone Petroleum's Shaikan field BEGAN its first exports, of 5,000 bpd”. ...
“Gulf Keystone plans to ramp up to 20,000 bpd by early next year, according to the company's country manager, Adnan Samarrai.”
------------------------------
Now, since the AGM was on Thursday 16th June and Exports had not apparently started then, and Ben Lando’s article was published on Wednesday 29rd June and mentioned GKP exports having started “last Thursday”, the suggestion is that exports officially started on THURSDAY 23rd JUNE at 5000 bopd.
So, in summary:
31 January 2011 – Local production expected of 2400 bopd, with no expectation of Exports.
11 April 2011 – Exports only an aspiration.
23 May 2011 - Preparing for exports (subject to KRG approval)
14 June 2011 – Commissioning phase with target of 10000 bopd within EIGHT months.
16 June 2011 – Exports target of 10000 bopd by end of 2011 (SIX MONTHS)
23 June 2011 – Exporting 5000 bopd, with target of 20000 bopd by EARLY 2012.
So, the nay-sayers can complain about the lack of progress, but it ytook only ONE MONTH for GKP to go from preparing for exports to actually starting exports at 5000 bopd and targeting 20000 bopd about 8 months from now..... and that is BY TRUCK ONLY.
Hmmmm.. Just imagine how those aspirations might change as the preliminary discussions about pipelines move from the planning stage to preparation,and then become reality too.
Has something happened
Ginty_p
1UP
14:00
Re: Isn't it ironic
scaramouche
TT2 – a perfect demonstration of why the classification status of trades should not be revered as much as it is!
Fordian – GKP don’t have 60bn barrels of oil in the ground. They have a 90% certainty of there being 10.8bn bbls in Shaikan, of which they’re entitled to be accredited with 51%, and a 50% certainty of there being 2.4bn bbls in Akri-Bijeel, of which they’re entitled to be accredited with 12.8%. So at most credible certainty GKP have 5.58bn bbls OIP – an exceptional volume of oil, but quite a way off 60bn bbls. The only serious commentary of there being 60bn bbls overall is (unless I’m mistaken) by BBBS. Whilst he/she may be correct (and I certainly hope so), the media aren’t going to start reporting on the comments of an anonymous discussion board user. However, the fact that the industry analysts haven’t discussed this kind of potential does kind of suggest that, assuming he/she is correct, BBBS has a better understanding of geophysics than them (Or, for balance, that the analysts don’t want to lose credibility, or even that BBBS is wrong (but that won’t be known for a good year or so yet).)
I think Squire_Charlie makes the case perfectly for why people should be looking for GKP to get as far as possible in appraising its wells, and not even entertaining the idea of a low-ball bid.
Persoanlly, I prefer to look at each licence on a like-for-like basis, and the P50 (mean) basis seems the most likely one that any prospective buyer would use to assess the OIP that GKP has found.
On that basis, the latest figures we have seen are 7.5 billion OIP (P50) for Shaikan and 2.4 billion OIP (P50) for Akri-Bijeel.
Putting the two together, and taking GKP's most recent estimate of a one-third recovery factor, we would have;
(7.5 billion x 0.51 (Net WI) x 0.33 RF) + (2.4 billion x 0.128 (Net WI) x 0.33 RF) = 1.36 billion barrels of RESERVES attributable to GKP.
WI=Working Interest!!
However, when we have a clearer understanding of Shaikan and the figures from Sheikh Adi are released, we could easily be looking at 15 billion OIP for Shaikan (based on Adnan Samarrai's comments in a recent article on GKP), and about one-third of that for Sheikh Adi as per GKP latest presentation.
In that event, which is becoming more likely as time goes on, the figures would change to:
(15 billion x 0.51 (net WI) x 0.33 RF) + (2.4 x 0.128 (net WI) x 0.33 RF) + (5 billion x 0.8 (net WI) x 0.33 RF) = 3.95 billion barrels of Oil RESERVES.
.....And that is without any OIP news from Bekhme or Ber bahr.
The fact that GKP is valued at only around £1.1 billion for current oil reserves of 1.36 Billion barrels (subject to GKP's confirmation of the RF) is clearly ridiculous. At nearly 3 times that level of Reserves, which could be confirmed over the next few months, it would be an absolute travesty.
AIMHO and please DYOR= Do your own research
GLA, scaramouche
BBBS – I was indeed mistaken, thanks for the clarification.
Scaramouche – nice summary, thank you. I was being overly conservative, mainly to make a point.
Working in the finance industry makes one pessimistic about asset growth in general. I see an immediate arbitrage opportunity in GKP given the present OIP figures and the present SP, and hence I’m investing. Assuming the high-end potentials are correct, then the arbitrage is significantly greater!
One final thing: Dragon Oil is up today, on a 700p – 750p bid rumour. Dragon Oil have 1.3bn boe booked reserves. Their market cap is about £2.9bn. Makes GKP’s current £1.1bn market cap on at least the same reserves look a little silly. Bring on the oil law and a statement of reserves.
I’ll probably stop posting for a bit, to avoid further incidents of foot-in-mouth disease.
Squire Charlie
=======
With mention of 35-40kbpd being able to be Exported by Investec, I thought I’d take a look at what SH-1-3 can achieve.
As Scaramouche pointed out in his Sunday 10.57am post.
"Truck loading at the EWT facility has functioned extremely well and the facility is capable of loading more than 90 trucks per day with each truck taking a maximum of 30 tonnes of oil (200 barrels)".
90 trucks per day would be a 24 hour operation, and transport 90 x 200 barrels per tanker = 18,000bpd Plus.
It would involve up to 45 Tankers doing two journey's, or less working 24 hours
DNO used 75 tankers to Export their Oil in 2009 when Exports first started from Kurdistan, for their relatively short journey to Fishkybar.
It will be a logistical triumph if GKP can pull it off, as Export Production is ramping up. ;)
Extract:
Oil Export
Following a request from the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Kurdistan Regional Government ("KRG"), the Company is preparing to export up to 5,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) from its Extended Well Test ("EWT") facility at Shaikan. A number of operational, commercial and legal preparations are required in order to be able to implement this request which the Company is currently undertaking. Commencement of the export of oil is still subject to final approval of the KRG.
(Reading the above, I guess GKP are just being conservative again and controlling Invester Expectations. Give us a break please)
GKP has said that a future Production Facility has been priced into the current Funding, so can we expect SH-2 to be the next Well to be tied into a PF, to gain another 18,000bpd Plus.
Or could the current Loading Facilities at the SH-1-3 PF be extended as the PF‘s are capable of :- In particular, the gas/oil separation unit will be expanded and a second oil storage tank will be added to enable the facility to handle a combined flow rate of up to 20,000 bopd.
I can see GKP are moving ahead, albiet with a slight change of plan, and Exporting as much as possible, adding to the KRG’s promised total Production of 200,000bpd by the end of 2011.
As long as non of the PIIGS mess up matters again, I can see Q3-4 being a good time for GKP Longs.
Mikey.
PS. No wonder someone has borrow shares for Longs
==
Samarrai has already indicated at this juncture - (with an OWC still to be penetrated + increase in LKO depth), that Shaikan TO DATE hold's ~ 17 Bln bbl's.
His recent comment ...."Shaikan alone could hold 5 Bln barrels of Reserves".
Working this backward's = 17 Bln bbl's x 30% RF = 5 Bln bbl's Reserves.
===
Hello SC, about you being mistaken:
==================
"Fordian – GKP don’t have 60bn barrels of oil in the ground. They have a 90% certainty of there being 10.8bn bbls in Shaikan, of which they’re entitled to be accredited with 51%, and a 50% certainty of there being 2.4bn bbls in Akri-Bijeel, of which they’re entitled to be accredited with 12.8%. So at most credible certainty GKP have 5.58bn bbls OIP – an exceptional volume of oil, but quite a way off 60bn bbls. The only serious commentary of there being 60bn bbls overall is (unless I’m mistaken) by BBBS. Whilst he/she may be correct (and I certainly hope so), the media aren’t going to start reporting on the comments of an anonymous discussion board user. However, the fact that the industry analysts haven’t discussed this kind of potential does kind of suggest that, assuming he/she is correct, BBBS has a better understanding of geophysics than them (Or, for balance, that the analysts don’t want to lose credibility, or even that BBBS is wrong (but that won’t be known for a good year or so yet).)"
====================
1. Daniel Stewart (an industry analyst) wrote the following in August 2010:
'Crucially, further drilling may provide a substantial increase to the Shaikan resource, to between 18bn and 20bn barrels - should the company determine an oil/water contact point at 2,230m - a level suggested by pressure data.
Nolan estimates that the Shaikan-2 well will target the oil-water contact point in Q1 2011, and provide more clarity on this aspect of the analyst’s investment thesis.
“A similar analysis across all of the blocks could see resources of 60bnbbl or more and with a recovery rate of about 30%.”
He added: “Gulf Keystone could be sitting on a giant on an equal footing to the Kirkuk field which has been producing for more than seventy years and still flows at 400,000 - 500,000b/d ... Any company with Gulf Keystone’s size of potential reserves will surely appear on the acquisition radar of many NOC’s and IOC’s." '
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/20585/gulf-keystone-is-a-likely-takeover-target-says-daniel-stewart-20585.html
2. GKP's Finance Director stated the following in October 2010:
'Shaikan-1 is located northwest of the city of Erbil, and drilled down to a depth of 2,950 metres, and discovered in excess of a 1,000 metre gross oil column of which less than 30 per cent has been tested with cumulative rates in excess of 20,000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day. An extended well test is currently being set up and is expected to deliver 8,000 to 10,000 barrels of oil per day (BOPD), which the company will then sell in the domestic market. The three other locations being explored are Akri-Bijeel, Sheikh Adi and Ber Bahr, all of which are in relatively close proximity to one another and if oil is discovered in each and proven to be contiguous would suggest a huge field.
“We are beginning to feel that the acreage we have could be similar to the Kirkuk field,” Ewen comments. “That’s one of the largest oil fields in or around Kurdistan and has become a sort of ultimate prize. We’re not saying this is as big as that at this stage but there is definitely a case for a significant oil accumulation over a very large area. The Kirkuk field is an enormous area discovered in the early part of the 1900s with an estimated 60 billion barrels of oil in place and today continues to produce close to 400,000 BOPD. Other than this field, however, the region has until fairly recently seen very little exploration and drilling due largely to political factors and this was one of the major attractions for GKP to move into the area.'
3. Ashti Hawrami (KRG Resources) was quoted by Gulf States News Letter as follows in early August 2010:
'AIM-listed Gulf Keystone Petroleum is pushing on with an extensive exploration programme in Iraqi Kurdistan – which Kurdistan Regional Government natural resources minister Ashti Hawrami has called a “Kirkuk-size discovery”.'
I am not a subscriber to GSN, but there is an fb link as follows:
http://www.facebook.com/topic.php?uid=111495711019&topic=11477
4. I have NEVER intimated a potential of 60 billion barrels OIP. In May 2010 (several months before the above references) I posted the potential as:
'I ain't being conservative no more - I'll go with 100 BBS OIP for all four licenses '
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AGKP.L&display=discussion&threshold=0&action=detail&id=6413148
I believe you are mistaken concerning my 'lone voice'. IMO.
GLA,
BBBS
P.S. Just a suggestion, when you state something like "but that won’t be known for a good year or so yet", please add "IMO". Because, at the very least, you seem to be extremely pessimistic about the drilling schedule for SH-6. IMO. Oh, and you don't know when I will post THAT post...
Firstly, butch100, congratulations on the superb observations in your very first post. I agree with every point you mention - and your conclusion that GKP may have retracted the May 2010 Presentation for other reasons. In this regard, I find it curious that the first two pages of "Disclaimer" are directed at recipients of the recent Placing, the Disclaimer starts out with:
"These presentation slides (the “Slides”) have been prepared by Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (the “Company”) in relation to a proposed placing of new common shares (the “Placing Shares”) by the Company (“Placing”) and their admission to trading on AIM ‘s market of the London Stock Exchange PLC (“Admission”). These Slides do not comprise an admission document, listing particulars or a prospectus relating to the Company, nor do they constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe for any securities of the Company and should not be relied on in connection with a decision to purchase or subscribe for any such securities. The Slides and the accompanying verbal presentation do not constitute a recommendation regarding any decision to sell or purchase securities in the Company."
Oops, I don't think this Presentation was intended for mere PIs .. But, just as GKP cannot un-discover the oil, they will also be unable to un-publish this Presentation! It will be very interesting to see what they finally decide to publish - the second time around ...
Secondly, Puppeteer, I am truly amazed at your recall abilities, and thank you for remembering my post "from what seems like an age ago". I have exactly the same feeling with regard to time, and felt compelled to go back and find that it was from 9th Nov 2009 - over 6 months ago!:
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AGKP.L&display=discussion&threshold=0&action=detail&id=5557385&prevpost=5526142&nextpost=5571339
Amazing eh, DNO tell us about Sheik Adi's twin (Sariyah) over two years ago - but GKP only tell us (by mistake?) via the May 2010 Presentation. As butch100 points out, the bottom-right picture on page 23 shows TWO structures within Sheik Adi Block, and the text refers to "Large mapped surface anticline of 34.8 km2 (main structure)" & "Further 40 km2 closure identified in north of block as eastern extension of Ber Bahr structure". So we now have the 34.8 km2 Sheik Adi ("main structure") and an even bigger structure at 40 km2 (aka Sariyah) - both within the Sheik Adi Block.
But what is this about Sariyah being an "eastern extension of Ber Bahr structure"?? If true, then even a casual glance at pages 14-18 shows that Sheik Adi itself is also be a south-eastern extension of Ber Bahr structure!
It should be noted that the figures on pages 14-18 all relate only to the Top Jurassic surface, and page 18 shows the connectivity at Jurassic levels if filled-to-spill at 2230m TVDSS: (true vertical depth subsea) (P1). It is abundantly clear that all four structures - Ber Bahr, Sheik Adi, Sariyah and Shaikan - are connected AT JURASSIC LEVELS - if they are indeed all filled to the Shaikan spill depth. Yet again, I have been shown to be conservative!; when I look again at the concluding remarks in my post of 9th Nov 2009:
"And the most relevant thing of all? Just an extension of ads_lons comment that "it looks very likely that the anticline structures of SA & S are linked". The POSSIBILITY that all three anticlines (Shaikan, Sheikh Adi & Sariyah) are contiguous at deeper levels. Now that POSSIBILITY would yield some rather large numbers of BBS for OIP..."
I can only say that I must now upgrade that to contiguous in all FOUR structures at Jurassic levels, and probably also contiguous in all FOUR structures at Triassic and Permian levels. And some rather larger numbers of BBS for OIP...
In fact a lot more OIP than the limited estimates in the DGA Report. DGA confined their upside to the Shaikan structure within the main boundary faults (refer the main fault boundaries on page 14) and came up with a total OIP upside of around 20 BBS, (including the gas in structures below 2950m MD). But DGA did not include any of the OIP that resides in the hanging walls OUSIDE the main faults of Shaikan. GKP clearly interpret that there is transmission across the main northern fault, (refer page 21), and such transmission is indeed required to explain a Jurassic spill depth of 2230 m TVDSS. So there is potentially yet more OIP (than that interpreted by DGA) within the hanging wall to the north of the main north fault.
But it doesn't stop here. If we go back to pages 14-18 in the May 2010 Presentation, it can be seen that GKP have been absolutely rigourous in removing all data and interpretations outside of their contracted areas. Specifically, they have removed data and interpretations relating to the Komet Al Qush Block (due west of Shaikan) and Hunt's Ain Sifni Block (South of Shaikan). But they have been so kind as to clearly identify Hunt's Jabal Kand-1 and Jebel Simrit-1 well locations. So we can now compare and contrast page 18 in the May 2010 Presentation with page 12 in Todd's presentation at the First Energy Conference on 1st December:
http://www.gulfkeystone.com/uploads/gkpinvestorpresentationnovember-final2009ver2.pdf
Now it is quite interesting to hear what Todd had to say about page 12, which, thanks to Daved1901's transcript was:
Shaikan. [Slide 12]: "Just a… my geologists and engineers like to put these things in presentations to watch the boss squirm. It just, once again, shows the Shaikan-2 drilling location."
Hahaha, you really did squirm there Todd! Are you serious Todd - the slide states that "Structural style extends into Sheikh Adi block" but does in fact also show that the structural style also extends into both the Komet and Hunt blocks - and all you can mumble is "It just, once again, shows the Shaikan-2 drilling location."! Methinks you wuz worried about what Mr Hunt might say about you showing us folks proprietary data that doesn't belong to you ...
Anyway, whilst we can see that GKP have cleansed their May 2010 Presentation of ''proprietary data" it is interesting to compare page 18 (May 2010) with page 12 (Nov 2009) with regard to well Jebel Simrit-1:
- Both show the Top Jurassic Depth Structure. Both show that there is contiguity between Shaikan and Sheik Adi if the Jurassic is filled to spill. Page 12 (Nov 2009) also shows that the Jurassic (green colour) spills into Komet's Al Qush Block to the west, and also from there south-eastwards down into the area of the Jebel Simrit-1 well location.
- Furthermore, page 12 (Nov 2009) shows that deeper levels with a broad correspondence of Triassic (red colour) and Permian (yellow colour) may be contiguous throughout Ain Sifni, Al Qush, Shaikan, Sheik Adi, Sariyah and Ber Behr. If so, the OIP numbers are getting "too large to calculate". Didn't Adnan Samarrai say something like that at the famous Shaikan celebration party?
- As an aside to MrAverage1, the plots labelled as "Map View" in pages 15 through 18 of the May 2010 Presentation, are also frequently referred to in the industry as "Topographic View". Do I need to say more with regard to Roy Topolinsky's statement about "shared known topography"?!
- With regard to Komet's Al Qush Block, it seems likely that Shaikan spills into the Alqosh structure identified by DNO (on page 17 of DNO's 'Capital Markets Day' presentation in April 2008):
http://hugin.info/36/R/1206041/248007.pdf
So what am I trying to say? Well, for starters, I reiterate my opinion that Hunt's well Jebel Simrit-1 is the first Shaikan Appraisal well. And that may result in yet more OIP within the Shaikan Block boundary. Similarly, there is probably also yet more OIP - than that calculated by DGA - up to the western boundary of Shaikan (where Shaikan spills into Komet's Block). And on the subject of Block-spill, it seems most likely from page 18 in the May 2010 Presentation, that Sariya also spills northwards into Hillwood's Sarsang Block. It's a good job that Todd should get on just fine with his fellow countrymen. In all of these cases, Unitisation procedures (refer my previous posts on this topic) will ensure that GKP are allocated all OIP volumes that reside within their licence boundaries.
In conclusion, I think Todd was being conservative - both on CNN, and at the First Energy Conference. I ain't being conservative no more - I'll go with 100 BBS OIP for all four licenses.
BBBS
P.S. Well Simrit-1, could actually be an Appraisal well for BOTH Shaikan and Jabal Kand... Think big picture, and join up the data points. But that'll have to be another post - time for bed.
==
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Financials
GKP’s financial position is strong with cash on the balance of $171.9m as of 5th
April 2011. Given the recent £109.24m raising at 140p/share, we do not see a
pressing need to raise further equity, with the proceeds being used to fund the
leasing of a third deep drilling land rig until 1H 2012, as well as additional testing and production facilities to cope with future production from Sheik Adi and/or one of the Shaikan appraisal wells.
Based on our forecasts, the company is set to report a post tax profit of $44m in 2011E, increasing thereafter as production from Shaikan rises to a targeted 35/40,000bpd by 2012. There is no long term debt held and short term facility drawings of $39m.
Investec initiates coverage on Gulf Keystone with a ‘buy’ recommendation
4:47 pm by Jamie Ashcroft
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/30202/investec-initiates-coverage-on-gulf-keystone-with-a-buy-recommendation-30202.html
Investec’s Angus McPhail initiated coverage on the Kurdistan based oil firm this morning with a ‘buy’ recommendation, targeting 198 pence a share.
Gulf Keystone (LON:GKP) has a transformational asset in Kurdistan in the Shaikan oilfield, according to analysts at Investec.
Investec’s Angus McPhail initiated coverage on the Kurdistan based oil firm this morning with a ‘buy’ recommendation, targeting 198 pence a share.
The oil and gas analyst highlighted the fact that GKP’s five well 2011 programme is focused on ‘low risk/high return’ appraisal wells. He also emphasises that GKP will boost production volumes and cash-flows as it begins to export oil from the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq from August this year.
“The agenda of the Kurdistan local government appears clear - get the oil out and revenues in, with gas prospects coming last in line to be developed,” the analyst said.
“The fact that another regional operator, DNO, was paid for its first oil sale last month shows tangible evidence of this.”
Looking at the group’s significant reserve position McPhail said: “Gulf Keystone has resources in place of 4.9bn-10.8bn barrels, which we expect to gain further credence on a Ryder Scott report due for release shortly.”
“The Shaikan-2 appraisal well is the next catalyst and we should get results in July.”
The Investec ‘buy’ recommendation is the latest bullish write up on GKP. Last month Evolution Securities analyst David Farrell said that Gulf Keystone shares are undervalued and the current price represents an attractive entry point.
"Since November last year the share price is effectively unchanged. This is despite a 79 percent increase in the central case for Shaikan Oil in Place Estimate to 7.5 billion barrels, discoveries at Bijeel and Sheikh Adi and apparent progress on the legal front,” Farrell said.
"Gulf Keystone is now just weeks away from commencing international exports at a rate of 5,000 barrels a day. With near term drilling catalysts and the potential for further resource upgrades at Shaikan we see the current share price as an attractive entry point."
===
looks like I will be way off the mark. May 25th I predicted sp would be 240-260p by tomorrow. How wrong I was.
Shahristani not yet sacked, assassinated, incapacitated, re-assigned, deposed, retired, relegated . So the sp will linger on between 130 and 150p for some time to come.
Yes, yes, I've said it before and I will say it again. We may have discovered vast amounts of oil but the sp sits at 144p because Al-Shahristani puts serious doubts about our legitimacy into the minds of the big investors and predators . There is no other barrier. The oil law is delayed because of him. The deal with the German minister in Brussels , freezing out Kurdistan , was signed because of him. Our sp sits at 144p because of him. No major oil company will touch us because of him. We have not been paid any oil profit or oil costs yet, because of him.
Who will rid me of this turbulent oil minister? (apologies to Henry II)
Najork.
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looks like I will be way off the mark. May 25th I predicted sp would be 240-260p by tomorrow. How wrong I was.
Shahristani not yet sacked, assassinated, incapacitated, re-assigned, deposed, retired, relegated . So the sp will linger on between 130 and 150p for some time to come.
Yes, yes, I've said it before and I will say it again. We may have discovered vast amounts of oil but the sp sits at 144p because Al-Shahristani puts serious doubts about our legitimacy into the minds of the big investors and predators . There is no other barrier. The oil law is delayed because of him. The deal with the German minister in Brussels , freezing out Kurdistan , was signed because of him. Our sp sits at 144p because of him. No major oil company will touch us because of him. We have not been paid any oil profit or oil costs yet, because of him.
Who will rid me of this turbulent oil minister? (apologies to Henry II)
Najork.
====
Natural resources Minister in the Government of the Kurdistan region, on the level of oil exports from the region currently stands at 180,000 bpd, rising to 200,000 barrels per day by the end of the year.
Asti said: hawrami level of oil exports from the region currently stands at 180,000 bpd, he said: his plan was prepared to raise it from oil exports to 200,000 barrels per day by the end of the year.
The hawrami: project-wide "petrodollar Iraq including three Kurdistan governorates (Erbil, Sulaymaniyah and Dohuk), stating that: the principle of" petrodollar will apply in areas where oil is extracted in the region.
The Iraqi Council of representatives had earlier approved an allocation of $ 1 for oil-producing prefectures for each barrel product per barrel and $ 1 filtered for the production of all 150 cubic meters of natural gas.
According to earlier statements of the Minister of natural resources in Kurdistan, "in 2010, the number of companies involved in oil extraction in the region of 40 companies track 17", when the territory's exports of oil amounting to 100,000 barre
===
Author scaramouche View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted today 17:55
Subject Re: Oil law schedule View parent message
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 50 times.
Message
Great debate this afternoon – and as ‘he-who-dares’ says, there is much that it is true in the arguments presented on all sides.
On balance, I tend to agree with Hub, as I think Shahristani is in imminent danger of being portrayed as the villain not only by many of us on this BB but by his own people too… UNLESS he agrees to the Oil and gas Law with minimal changes.
IMHO, all he has to do is to say that, despite some personal reservations, he accepts the Oil and Gas Law as the best way forward for all the people of Iraq. It really can't be that hard, can it?
My reasoning is based around the history of the last 7 months (my apologies to those who don’t like reading long posts!)….
1) 30 November 2010 - the Kurds insisted on a new Oil and Gas law by June 2011 as a PRE-CONDITION for joining a Maliki-led government.
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=101703
Extract: The semi-autonomous government of Iraq's Kurdistan region wants new hydrocarbon and revenue-sharing laws by June 2011 as a condition of its participation in a new Iraqi administration, the Kurdistan Regional Government's minister for natural resources said Tuesday.
2) 21 December 2010 – Maliki narrowly managed to get consent for forming his Government … and only with Kurdish support.
3) 5 April 2011: Al-Janabi (Chairman of Oil and gas committee) said that it was not feasible for the Oil and Gas law to be passed by June or July, as the Kurds had hoped, but he did expect it to be passed by the end of 2011. And he was clearly very serious about getting this matter resolved a.s.a.p.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-05/iraq-won-t-be-able-to-pass-oil-law-by-june-al-janabi-says-1-.html
Extract; “The Oil and Energy Committee has begun consultations on how to make contracts signed between the Kurdish authorities and foreign companies compatible with national laws, Al-Janabi said. That process will require co-ordination between THE (Oil & Energy) COMMITTEE, the KURDS and the MINISTRY OF OIL.“
4) 24 May 2011: Shahristani said that the Draft Oil & Gas law would require a major overhaul.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/05/24/uk-iraq-oil-idUKTRE74N5FK20110524
Somewhat contradictorily, in view of his much-discussed attitude to the Kurdish Contracts, he also stated, "We (The ICG) signed contracts with global oil majors and no one asked if there is a hydrocarbon law or not".
All interested parties then proceeded to review and amend it.
5) Thursday 30 June 2011: Amended Draft of oil and gas law under review by Shahristani’s office.
http://english.alrroya.com/content/iraq-amends-draft-oil-and-gas-law
Extract: "Iraq's energy committee headed by Deputy Prime Minister Hussain al-Shahristani discussed in its meeting on Thursday the revised draft of the oil and gas law which was SUBMITTED BY THE OIL MINISTRY," Shahristani's media office said in a statement released late on Thursday.
"The committee has decided to study the draft and submit the remarks in its next meeting which will be held next week."
No further details were given about what amendments had been made and officials were unavailable for comment.
6) 3 July 2011 – The KURDS reviewed the new draft oil and gas law and a spokesman for the Government confirmed that they had NO OBJECTIONS TO IT.
http://www.iraqdinares.com/showthread.php?p=264675
7) 4 July 2011 Ben Lando report (posted by carillion) – Janabi seeks to prevent any oil deals being signed either by the ICG or KRG until the Oil & Gas Law is in place.
Extract: The ENERGY COMMITTEE’s move is an attempt to put pressure on the feuding politicians, all of whom recognize the central importance of oil to Iraq – the government generates more than 90 percent of its revenue from oil – but cannot agree on how best to guide the development of the sector.
"I WANT TO PUT AN END TO THIS VICIOUS CIRCLE," Al-Janabi said.
8) Next step - 6 July 2011 – Shahristani’s office to meet and decide their next actions.
"The committee has decided to study the draft and submit the remarks in its next meeting which will be held next week."
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Conclusions:
By my reckoning, looking back at the parties that Al-Janabi said way back in April needed to agree to the Oil and Gas Law.
* The OIL AND ENERGY COMMITTEE are happy with it (as they drafted it).
* The OIL MINISTRY is happy with it as they submitted the amendments. * The KURDS are happy with it, having reviewed it and expressed no objection….
* So the only one left is surely Mr SHAHRISTANI.
Meanwhile, Maliki needs the Kurds or his government is in danger of collapse, Iraq desperately needs the Kurdish oil with 200,000 bopd exports in 2011 (expected to rise to 1 million bopd by 2014). And the only barrier to this is …. You’ve guessed it – Mr SHAHRISTANI.
And just for good measure…. SHAHRISTANI needs the Oil contracts in Southern Iraq legitimised by an Iraqi Oil and Gas Law, SHAHRISTANI needs Kurdish oil to have any chance of meeting his yearly production targets. And SHAHRISTANI needs the agreement of Parliament to be able to progress the next round of oil exploration contracts in the South of Iraq he has scheduled for early 2012…..
Yes, Wimbledon might be over… but the ball is definitely in Mr Shahristani’s court right now, IMHO!
Hi Dalesmann,
You make many excellent points, and I am sure that many here do have a sneaking respect both for Shahristani's seemingly unshakeable beliefs, and his courageous life story. My issue with him, however, remains his intransigence and unwillingness to see other sides of the coin.
I also agree with you wholeheartedly that the KRG does take too large a slice of the cake under the contracts they have arranged with the foreign exloration companies.
In fact, although my personal calculations to try to compare the contracts between North and South are much too detailed to try to recreate here, it is my opinion that, under the KRG one, Kurdistan gets in the region of $12.50 more per barrel (arising from deducting 10% royalties at Source and the imposition of the 40% ISP tax), than they would under a centrally-controlled contract.
That money would otherwise be available for distribution to both Iraq and Kurdistan, and IMHO is the main reason for the friction between the ICG and the KRG. Resolve this and, in my view, you resolve everything.
IMO, the issue is NOT that the Oil Companies themselves benefit significantly one way or the other. The issue is EXCLUSIVELY between Erbil and Baghdad!
My 'simple' solution would be:
1) the removal of the ISP tax, substituting it with a centrally-administered tax on all oil company profits - thereby ensuring the tax raised was ultimately split between Iraq and Kurdistan along with the rest of the budget.
2) The 10% contractual royalties being deducted at source (when the oil is sold) and also split between Iraq and Kurdistan as per budget.
These would be significant changes, of course, but I am heartened that Kurdistan seems to be increasing its production levels dramatically as though they feel a solution is just around the corner.
By the end of the year with 200000 bopd, they would be contributing around $6 billion per annum net to the Iraqi economy as a whole... rising to $30 billion per annum in 2014. A step back to the bad old days of no production at all, and Iraq would receive absolutely nothing from Kurdistan.
IMHO, facts like these will really focus the mind of both Shahristani and Hawrami ... and it is why I think Janabi is such an excellent person to help bang their two heads together. If they do find a solution, who knows, maybe all 3 will go down in the history books as Iraqi national heroes!
As you say, there really has to be a solution before very long.
GLA, scaramouche
==
Hi Scaramouche.
A very good post, which is both logical and persuasive.
I do however think, as you yourself imply, that the role of Mr Sharistani is not fully understood on these boards and his views are often decried or shouted down, often using profanity without any real thought as to why he takes his current stance.
There is no doubt in my mind that Mr Sharistani has a point in condemning the way that the Kurds have gone about extracting maximum benefit for the Kurds alone from the 42 oil companies working in Kurdistan. This at the expense of the rest of the Iraqi populace.
The ASIP tax,
the 10% top slice,
the revenue from backin rights,
the retained working percentages - all are on top of the 17% of the total oil Iraq revenue payment, with an additional payment of $1 for every barrel that is extracted in Kurdistan.
If I were a poor unemployed voter in Baghdad I would have a lot of sympathy for Mr Sharistani's standpoint. It will be and is a popular issue for him and I suspect he, Mr S, has mass support due to the lack of balance in the revenue sharing afforded to Kurdistan and what remains for the rest of Iraq, such problems are directly attributable to the KRG case.
The KRG are asking a lot when settling the Oil and Gas Bill in their favour without modifications.
As a man in the street what I would not have sympathy with is the lack of positive action and progress that Mr Sharistani and his ministry has delivered, or more to the point has failed to deliver over the last 4 years. Mr Sharistani along with many others has been party to this inaction. Mr Maliki has recognised this with his 100 day initiative.
Little continuity in electricity supply, interruptions in water supply, little or no gas for home use, poor sewage, poor education and a lack of job prospects. All this may just work against Mr Sharistani's leadership. The Arab Spring adds impetus to those seeking a quick solution, it adds motivation! All of this needs money to put it right - and that is just what the KRG currently has on the table .
It is a potent card to play at this moment in time.
In reviewing the impasse it is also important to remember the bravery of this man during the Saddam years. He was and is a brave man and is respected for it. He need to save face. This is VERY important to him and he needs a way out - you Scaramouche, have suggested that the current negotiations may afford Mr S an honourable retreat. I do think he is genuinely out to get the best deal he can get for all iraqi people and probably deserves an out!
What, IMHO, Mr Sharistani has failed to do is to explore the specific problems that are faced by companies drilling in Kurdistan and this has coloured his approach. From my own analysis the PSCs are probably a better way forward to extract maximum value for Iraq as they are the quickest route to production. The KRG have demonstrated this in spades!
PSCs
Attract BIG Oil into Kurdistan and they quickly get the oil extraction roadshow up and running.
PSCs apportions exploration risks better than Service Contracts do. In the south we are working on known fields, shallow oil and existing transportation infrastructure. Often in the south it is more a case of working over a well rather than drilling a new one. (Although even this appears to be quickly running in to a brick wall as problems with antiquated(Too old to be fashionable, suitable, or useful) pluming are revealed and companies seek to renegotiated their contracts)
The risk/reward balance must be right to extract maximum benefit for the Iraqi people. The drilling risks are much greater in the Zagros then in the plains of southern Iraq.
I hope that the new oil and gas law takes this into account and a fair solution for all is duly revealed.
GKP is of course on the sidelines in these negotiations except that they are now contributing export oil for the benefit of all Iraqi people. We need to keep our heads down, lets try not to draw adverse attention to our little company and wait for a positive result.
It will come!
Kind regards
Dalesman
==
Maliki's visit to China soon to expand political and economic relations
http://www.babnews.com/inp/view.asp?ID=41538
Posted 05/07/2011 09:12 AM
Baghdad (Ali Al Ameri): The Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's close to the People's Republic of China Based on an official invitation addressed to him earlier. The Iraqi officials said the visit It is the first Prime Minister to China may be the middle of this month at the head of a delegation of A number of ministers, and which al-Maliki will focus on strengthening cooperation in the aspects Economic, trade and energy, which will renew the call to the Chinese companies To invest in Iraq in critical areas needed by the Iraqi people.
visited Prime Minister in the month of April, the South Korean delegation, including ministers of trade Electricity, industry and research which develop relations between the two countries and expand cooperation Economic.
was signed by al-Maliki during his recent visit to Seoul signed a cooperation The fields of economy and energy between Korea and Iraq. The agreement included the areas of energy The construction and reconstruction and investment and expand trade, and pointed to the Chairman asked the Korean Korean companies to participate in projects to develop Iraqi oil fields
and stressed the Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, in his speech during the meeting, which gathered Korean ministerial delegation, the possibility of Build a partnership beneficial to both countries because of the opportunities for joint economic integration, called on the government And South Korean companies to participate in Iraq reconstruction projects in various areas, Particularly housing, transport, health institutions, even the fields of oil, gas and electricity
from For his part, said President Lee Myung-bak that the cooperation achieved between the two countries in Energy to expand cooperation in industry and infrastructure, calling for the Iraqi government To support Korean companies in order to activate their participation in the development of oil wells in the Iraq, which has the third largest reserves of oil in the world.
===
Back in January it appeared to me that "Production" ought to go some way in establishing RESERVES for GKP, as this category was at the apex of the SPE PRMS Guide.
Well we are now Producing, so some sort of RESERVES update must be due soon.........
Jack
==========================================
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AGKP.L&display=discussion&threshold=0&action=detail&id=7634015
I note in the RNS of 14th Jan 2010 that all OIP estimates were “Prior to production”
“Discovered Petroleum initially-in-place is that quantity of petroleum that is estimated, as of a given date, to be contained in known accumulations prior to production.”
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=news&code=cotn:GKP.L&action=article&articleid=7704920
The diagram on Page 2 of the SPE Petroleum Resources Management System Guide for Non-Technical Users shows “Production” at the apex of the table, so presumably producing 8,000+bpd would also go some way to moving some OIP estimates to a Reserve category.
http://www.spe.org/industry/reserves/docs/PRMS_guide_non_tech.pdf
Financial markets love Proven Reserves, as does the FTSE.......so hang onto those golden tickets as IMO we are due a re-rating sooner than folks think !!
Jack
===
That's Bazian and now Sangaw North that has not delivered the hoped for oil for the Korean National Oil Co.
BIRs at Shaikan imo now of more strategic energy importance for the Koreans than ever.
$600m already spent on infrastructure payments out of a $2.1b commitment and little to show for it other than the existing discovery at Dimir Dagh.
===
Texas hold 'em?
6 July 2011 | By Joanne Harris
http://www.thelawyer.com/texas-hold-em?/1008509.article
Should the English courts interfere with an arbitration that began outside its jurisdiction?
That was the question Mrs Justice Gloster was forced to answer when she was appointed as judge in the Texas Keystone trial.
It is rare for the court to interfere with arbitrations in their own jurisdiction let alone those that began in the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) in New York.
.Yet that is exactly what Gloster J did when she granted an anti-arbitration injunction to restrain claimant company Excalibur Ventures from launching arbitration proceedings in New York, while at the same time attempting to bring a similar case against the same defendants through London’s Commercial Court.
In dispute was whether Excalibur, described on its website as offering advisory services related to Iraq, was entitled to an interest in rights to exploit and develop petroleum fields in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Those rights were granted by the Kurdistan Regional Government to the defendants named in the case; Texas Keystone; Gulf Keystone Petroleum; Gulf Keystone Petroleum International; and Gulf Keystone Petroleum UK. Collectively the four are known as the Gulf defendants.
Excalibur claimed it had introduced management of Gulf Keystone Petroleum to opportunities for oil exploration in Iraqi Kurdistan and together they had agreed to share any plans to develop the region. The company brought in Clifford Chance partner Alex Panayides to lead its claim against the Gulf defendants.
The defendants denied any agreement ever existed. Texas Keystone instructed Jones Day partner Stephen Pearson while the Gulf defendants instructed Memery Crystal partner Harvey Rands.
Commercial Court proceedings were launched by Excalibur on 17 December 2010 alleging breaches of the collaboration agreement and contending that it had been wrongfully shut out from the production sharing contract (PSC).
On the same day, Excalibur kick-started arbitration proceedings in New York in which it sought, according to Gloster J’s ruling, “similar, but not identical, relief against TKI and the Gulf defendants”.
A senior litigation partner commented: “[Excalibur] was trying to have it both ways and the defendants wanted an anti-arbitration clause to stop it. It’s extremely rare for the UK court to interfere with foreign jurisdictions, but in this case it did.”
A witness statement submitted to the court by Panayides stated that Excalibur only commenced Commercial Court proceedings “to protect time and to ensure that there would be an appropriate forum seized [sic] of the claimant’s non-contractual claims, in the event that a tribunal constituted under the ICC rules concluded that it did not have jurisdiction over one or more of the defendants and/or claims.”
Gloster J rejected the assertion, upholding the defendants’ argument that there was nothing in the claim form to suggest the London court proceedings should be subsidiary to the New York arbitration; neither had it “adequately articulated” the limitation issues it had concerns about.
The judge added that the High Court would show restraint when it comes to interfering with foreign arbitration save in “exceptional cases”. In this matter, she added, it was clear that the substantive proceedings were being pursued in London and therefore the London court held jurisdiction.
Furthermore, whether the defendants were party to the collaboration agreement that contains the arbitration clause, as Excalibur contends but the defendants deny, should also be decided by the High Court. “None of the Gulf defendants have any connection with New York, or the ICC,” Gloster J said.
This case will now go to a further hearing later this month.
Meanwhile, litigators will study the judgment closely to understand what behaviour would compel the High Court to reach outside its jurisdiction.
===
"23 percent is the average premium paid for oil and gas assets worldwide in deals announced in the past 12 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg"
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I would say the above is not entirely true (depending on the individual's thoroughness & reporting credibility, plus the extent of his / her research).
...Here briefly, are a couple of historic TO / offer examples:
Cairn (Cairn India) at a 32% Premium.
Addax Petroleum at a 47% Premium.
Dana Petroleum at a 59% Premium.
GulfSands Petroleum in Q1 2010 - rejected India Oil's bid at a 35% Premium to their then share price, however GulfSands BoDs commented THEY WOULD accept and agree to a 67% Premium offer - which represented £4 per share.
15th December 2010: Malaysian state oil firm Petronas (6033:KL) with a £1.7 billion bid for oil explorer Heritage Oil.
HOIL's Market Cap on 15th December was £1.2 bln.
....this TO rumour stands at a 42% premium to their "then" current MCap.
If i recall too Scaramouche previously held Sibir Energy - whom received a T/O offer of nearly 3 times their then price.
The above 6 average around the 50% mark.
However, even the higher-ended deal offer's don't always conclude.
Recipient's holding out for more value is my guess !
MrAverage1
===
Just wanted to draw your attention to a bunch of scammers who claim to be calling from New York from a company named Easton Consulting. They are a bunch of boiler room cheats who are claim that they have a client who wishes to mount a hostile takeover for a company who's shares you own. Usually, the shares are worthless and they claim to want to offer 300-400% more for them. In my case, it was Parallel Media Group and they wanted to offer me between £5 and £12 per share (Laughable considering they are only worth about 20p).
Anyhow, they call you to give you updates and try to sound legit and then they say they want you to spend a couple of grand on an insurance policy for the deal to secure your money in case the other party decides they no longer want them. Guess what, the other party does bail out!
For humour, I heard the girl out and gave her both barrels and told her to seriously consider her life choices. :-) The other guy I spoke to was a guy call Paul Winters.
I know all finance companies are total crooks but please be careful of these guys They sound authentic but are like all the rest. They are on the fraud watch list with the FSA (Then again, there are many large UK companies that should be on there!).
Good luck all and be safe.
==
I couldn't agree more with your post.
Like many others here, I hold VAST, and it is never a pleasure to see half of an investment wiped out in one fell swoop. Hopefully it will recover a bit over time.
Fortunately though, the money I have tied up in VAST is not a patch on my investment in GKP, and it is a huge relief to be able to say that!
What VAST's troubles go to show are that drilling in Kurdistan is very far from easy, contrary to the popular myth. Maliki recognised this in early February, before Shahristani said he had been misquoted and probably held back the progress towards an Oil & Gas Law in the process. But the evidence is now there for ALL Iraqi politicians to see...
1) SEY have released a series of bad RNS's and have yet to find oil. They are now valued at something close to the value of the cash they have in the bank.
2) HOIL disappointed the market when they announced a huge GAS find - because the market had been expecting OIL.
3) KNOC have yet to find anything material in any of their 8 concessions in Kurdistan, despite a promsied £2 billion infrastructure investment and the costs of buying those licences. If they now have the BIR's to Shaikan they must be mightily relieved.
4) Now we have VAST proving that even a prospect as huge as Qara Dagh may not deliver quite what most peole were expecting.
Meanwhile, in the midst of such carnage, we have GKP sitting on many billions of barrels of oil, with a huge upgrade in the figures likely at the end of July.
The latest figures from Iraq suggest that Kurdistan may have 30 billion barrels of oil reserves, compared to the rest of Iraq's 143 billion. That means that it is believed that kurdistan has just over 17% of the total oil reserves an Iraq... which ironically is also their share of the budget.
If they do, it is very likely that GKP's blocks will prove to hold a very high percentage of that 30 billion of RESERVES. Yes, a VERY HIGH percentage!! Is it any wonder then that it has been referred to by TK as 'the jewel of Kurdistan'?
In short, the oil that GKP has discovered is enormously valuable to Kurdistan, and may act as a very important bargaining chip if there is ever a chance that Kurdistan might secede from the rest of Iraq. That figure of 17% of the oil in Iraq also tells me that Kurdistan could quite feasibly go it alone, although I certainly hope it never comes to that.
The most important point though is that it is nowhere near as easy as people make out for explorers to find oil there, and this provides further evidence that our PSC is far from generous in its terms. Exploration has massive risks and GKP has taken the risk just like everyone else who has to date failed to earn any material rewards. That is what E&P is all about!
And, as Bonobo says... major oil companies and NOCs will soon be falling over each other as they chase the opportunity for a stake in licences companies with huge oil discoveries like those of GKP, so IMHO a bidding war is almost certain to ensue. I look forward to that prospect and the chance for GKP to realise fair value, both for its employees and its shareholders.
For me, today, VAST has proved to be a serious blot on the landscape - but at the same time my view of GKP is that the grass has surely never looked greener.
Iraq Gov' Recognition of GKP
scaramouche
61UP
I agree that the upcoming conference with Adnan Samarrai effectively sharing a platform with people like Adnan Al-Janabi is extremely positive for GKP.
Indeed, on 6/7/2011, I also highlighted that GKP are actually involved in TWO conferences at the end of September.
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AGKP.L&display=discussion&action=detail&id=8500436
In the first of those conferences, GKP's talk is about 'Raising funds and the options available', and in the second it is about 'Building an energy infrastructure in Kurdistan'.
Maybe that telels us something about where GKP is heading, given the recent emphasis by EVO securities on Shaikan producing 500,000 bopd not so many years from now, which I posted about last night.
Just one other comment - the welcome page to the Iraq Future Energy Conference in Istanbul shows 'ADNAN SAMARRAI, Country manager IRAQ, Gulf Keystone Petroleum'.
His official title from the GKP website is of course "Country Manager, KURDISTAN REGION OF IRAQ".
I fully agree that Kurdistan and Iraq do seem to be coming much closer together... and Adnan Al-Janabi seems to be the glue that is very determined to bond them together!
-
Subject Oil Still In Place....
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 30 times.
Message
A few weeks ago, GRH1 came up with the mnemonic OSIP. I have not been able to find it as part of the oil industry’s standard vernacular... but, if it isn’t, it probably should be!
What GRH1 was referring to was the concept of OIL STILL IN PLACE (or estimated REMAINING reserves), and the fact that many of the figures quoted for the recoverable oil from some of the world’s largest oil discoveries fail to take account of the long-term depletion of their resource.
For example, many Middle Eastern countries tend to refer to their reserves as though their discoveries had not been touched since day 1. When you note that many of these oil fields were in fact discovered more than FORTY YEARS ago, you will also have a clearer understanding of what remains... and an appreciation of just how important GKP’s NEW discovery, beginning with Shaikan, is likely to become.
There has been very little discussion of the slide on page 6 of the GKP AGM presentation, in which this key consideration was in effect drawn to our attention. Personally, I think it is a very important slide in the context of the future of Shaikan.
http://www.gulfkeystone.com/uploads/gulfkeystones2011agmpresentation.pdf
The biggest oil fields in the MIddle East were shown as Ghawar (Saudi Arabia), West Qurna (Iraq), Rumaila (Iraq), Majnoon (Iraq), Kirkuk (Iraq), and Shaikan was shown by way of comparison.
Ghawar of course is shown as a mammoth oil field with 100 billion reserves but recent estimates suggest that at least 50% of that resource has been extracted.
Meanwhile, Shaikan is given a current 2.5 billion reserves (based on OIP of 7.5 billion and a recovery factor of one-third) possibly rising to 3.6 billion on a P10 basis. From Adnan Sammarai’s subsequent comments about expecting at least 5 billion Reserves, it is evident that GKP are in fact looking at the old P1 basis (fulled to spill) as the new P90, i.e. PROBABLE. How times have changed!
But let us now also look at the figures from each of the oil fields GKP has cited.
1) GHAWAR – discovered 1948, estimated remaining reserves = 50 billion.
Current production 5 million bopd/ 1.8 billion per annum. Remaining life-span = 25-30 years
2) WEST QURNA – discovered 1973, estimated remaining reserves = 23 billion.
Current production = 400,000 bopd. Target production of 2.25 million (phase 1) by 2017 + 1.8 million (phase 2) by 2024, totalling 4 million bopd/ 1.4 billion p.a. Remaining life-span < 20 years.
3) RUMAILA – discovered 1953, estimated remaining reserves = 17 billion.
Current production = 960,000 bopd. Target production= 2.85 million bopd/ 1 billion p.a by 2017. Remaining life-span < 25 years.
4) MAJNOON – discovered 1975, estimated remaining reserves = 13 billion.
Current production = 45,000 bopd. Target production = 1.8 million bopd / 0.65 billion p.a by 2017. Remaining life span of 20-25 years.
5) KIRKUK – discovered 1927, estimated remaining reserves = 8 billion.
Current production up to 1,000,000 bopd / 0.3 billion p.a. Remaining life-span = 25 years.
6) SHAIKAN – discovered 2009, estimated remaining reserves = 5 BILLION.
Target production 500000 bopd / 180 million p.a. (by 2014?) Remaining life-span of 25-30 years.
But this is just the start....
When you add in the increasing possibility that the 4 blocks that GKP has interests in could have 60 billion barrels OIP, made up SHAIKAN (15 billion), SHEIKH ADI (5 billion), AKRI-BIJEEL (10 Billion) and Ber Bahr (30 billion), it is perfectly conceivable that this particular oil discovery ( let’s call it SHAIKAN PLUS ) could be equivalent to Kirkuk’s original 60 billion (20 billion recoverable) which, like each of the others, has been hugely depleted, since the original discovery.
Looked at this way, GKP’s discovery is IMO likely to take it into 3rd place in the biggest oil fields in the Middle East. And if it does, we would be looking at a profile something like:
***** SHAIKAN PLUS : discovered 2009, estimated remaining reserves 20 billion, target production 2 million bopd/ 0.7 billion p.a by 2020, remaining life span – in the region of 30 years.*****
That is the prize that any prospective buyer would be buying into, an opportunity to develop SHAIKAN PLUS into a 2 million bopd oil field, the biggest onshore oil discovery since 1973, with an overall 40% Net Working interest.... which would earn them a projected $1.8 billion per annum net income for up to 30 years.
In the next 3 months or so (maximum 6 months), I believe that the news coming from GKP will offer us some very clear indications of whether this POTENTIAL is likely to be realised, with only Ber Bahr remaining to be drilled.
Is it any wonder then that, if the recent rumours are true, the vultures may be circling... ready to take their share of the GKP spoils BEFORE the full scale of the discovery can be proved.
Don’t let the current SP blind you as to the real potential that is there, and the possibility that a starting bid could be tabled at any time.
And don't forget that, when comparing major oil fields, you need to think of GRH1's "OIL STILL IN PLACE".
AIMHO and please DYOR.
GLA, scaramouche.
===
chief66
32UP
Key stand out points for me are:
1: Key Panel Speaker - Jon Sargeant, Operations Director, DNO International
This significant in itself as DNO are in the same position as ourselves re contracts.
2: Hear from Gulf Keystone Petroleum on their progress to date
and future business plans for Kurdistan.
Yes hear how they managed to find the biggest oil find in the last decade.
3: Political scenario within the Kurdistan autonomous area of Iraq;
update on the relationship with the federal government of Iraq.
Key point is the word Autonomous - if kurds cant do their own contracts would they have used this term!
4. Expanding the exploration activities; possibility of increasing
gas reserves in deeper horizons
Now things are getting quite obvious, they definitely want the GAS from our Curry Chine!!! lol
Barney, tks for the post - contract ratification before this conference, me thinks so.
==
Iraq May Increase Proven Crude Reserves by 21% With Kurdish Oil
By Kadhim Ajrash - Jul 16, 2011 1:17 PM GMT+0100 .
Iraq may raise its proven oil reserves by 21 percent after adding those from the semi- autonomous Kurdish region, Hussain al-Shahristani, deputy prime minister for energy affairs, said today.
Iraq’s oil reserves may increase to 173 barrels by adding 30 billion barrels of Kurdish oil, al-Shahristani said in a speech to ambassadors at the Foreign Ministry in Baghdad. The country’s crude production capacity will rise to 12 million barrels a day by 2017, he said.
Iraq, home to the world’s fifth-biggest oil reserves, is struggling to boost energy exports, the main source of revenue, to help rebuild an economy shattered by years of conflict, economic sanctions and sabotage. The country has signed 15 gas and oil licenses since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq that ousted the regime of President Saddam Hussein.
Iraq will sign contracts before the end of the year to add 7,500 megawatts of electricity production capacity, he said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Kadhim Ajrash at kajrash@bloomberg.net;
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephen
===
Rumoured to be looking to add more proven OIP Kurdistan, GKP have been mentioned to a friend of mine to be the preferred option for the Chinese Sinopec.
==
In the wake of NOTW scandal, an extract from a piece in the Telegraph today on 20 scandals we all suspect and would not be suprised about if confirmed ...... (allegedly of course!)
"4 Insider trading. It’s absolutely endemic. In many spheres and all sorts of ways within the financial world, nothing even approaching a free, fair or open market exists. The protection and enhancement of entrenched advantage is, to a far greater degree than capitalist competition, the key dynamic in many markets.
5 The stock exchange has all but lost its original purpose — the financing of new business — and become a turbo-charged, non-stop poker school for a huge, wealthy, essentially unproductive and largely parasitic class. Unfortunately for my argument, Britain makes a lot of money from this."
===
The SP as been pathetic again this week,but nevertheless i wanted to revisit some fundamentals of GKP.
As per Wikipedia's definition of OIP:
The total amount of oil in an oil reservoir,including producible and non-producing oil,is called oil in place(OIP).However,because of the reservoir characteristics and limitations in petroleum extraction technologies,only a fraction of this oil can be brought to the surface,and it is only this producible fraction that is considered as reserves.The ratio of producible reserves to total oil in place for a given field is often referred to as the recovery factor.
Proven reserves:
Proven reserves are those reserves claimed to have a reasonable certainty(normally at least 90percent confidence) of being recoverable under normal economical and political conditions,with existing technology.Industry specialists refer to this as P90(ie having a 90percent certainty of being produced)Proven reserves are also known in the industry as 1P
The rest of the definitions,for those that are not too sure please go to Wikipedia and type oil reserves.
What i wanted to highlight are the following:
1.That on April 14th GKP released a RNS that shows our P90,OIP has increased from 1.9billion barrels to 4.9billion barrels for Shaikan.If we go by the normal definition of oil reserves,isn't that P90,or 1P which effectively is Shaikan's reserves so far from data obtained from SH-1,3 and SH-2??!!
2.That Adnan Samarrai in a recent interview has openly mentioned that Shaikan's oil reserves are at least 5billion barrels!!!
3.That we had a great post from Barney71255 at 17.41 revealed that in September there will a Iraq Future Energy 2011 Conference in Istanbul that will feature Adnan Janabi Chairman of Iraq's Oil and Gas Committee and Shahristani as well,and GKP's Mr Samarrai will be delivering a paper Building Energy Infrastructure!!That really augurs well for Iraqi/Kurdish oil politics and with Dr Ashti Hawrami consistently saying that Kurdistan's exports will breached 200K barrels per day by year end and 1million barrels per day by 2014,says alot of what's happening behind the scenes!!
4. That BHP has made it clear that the acquistion of PetroHawk for 12billion USD has nothing to do with PetroHawk's share price but more to do with what assets PetroHawk has under the surface,is a clear indicator of what GKpians can at least expect,when a Take Over happens!!
At the AGM,it was clear that GKP will not be testing flowrates for SA-1 at the Kurre Chine and SH-2 Triassic,until TD is reached.It costs GKP at least 5million USD more,to drill,stop,test,drill again,stop test,etc,etc.
Hence we should be getting lots of newsflow the coming weeks and material ones,IMHO.Meanwhile if the SP stays range bound,this is an excellent buying opportunity for new PI's and Institutions as well as existing ones as well!!
Goodluck and best wishes and have a great weekend.
====
Understanding the Share Movements
MikeyAdmin
17UP
Well, trying to make sense of what happening.
http://screencast.com/t/DzQCxb5rOKxm
Looking at the chart, it looks like there are 6 defined rises, perhaps showing increasing amounts of difficulty, that 6 seperate enitities are experiencing in gaining shares.
Of the shareholders shown in the 31st March, we have :-
HSBC Investments, JP Morgan Asset Management, Baillie Gifford, Allliance Bernstien, Henderson New Star, Pershing New Jersey, Market Street Bank, Deutsche Private Banking, which adds up to eight.
We already know that Baillie Gifford has increased its holding pre the new June Holders shown on the GKP site.
Baillie Gifford held 13,064,853 (1.71%) 31st March, and increased to 20,240,407 (2.66%)
Alliance Bernstein held 12,851,152 (1.69%) on the 31st March, and from their records by the 31st May they held 12,876,901 + 1,587,205 = 14,464,106 (1.89%)
As per the GKP site, HSBC Investments, held 16,629,209 (2.18%) on the 31st March, and by the 1st June, they had increased their holding to 17,261,868 (2.27%)
As per the GKP site, JP Morgan Asset Management on the 31st March, held 15,891,200 (2.08%) increasing it to 15,926,033 (2.09%) by the 1st June.
On the 31st March, the PI interest with TDW was showing at 47,845,716 (6.28%) and by the 1st June had increased to 55,636,010 (7.30%)
On the 31st March, Barclays Personal Invest Manage holding stood at 40,997,052 (5.38%) increasing to 40,759,674 (5.35%) on the 1st June.
On the 31st March, Halifax Share Dealing stood at 36,276,662 (4.76%) increasing to 36,558,069 (4.8%) on the 1st June.
On the 31st March, Selftrade held 24,090,211 (3.16%) and increased it to 24,817,968 (3.26%) by the 1st June.
Without other Major Holders selling their holdings, the only place to acquire stock from is the Private Invester.
Is this what the stagnation is all about, Institutions shaking out the Private Investor, instead of buying higher, and when will it end.
Lets say, they each want 20,000,000 shares, and before anything significant happens.
That gives us the 26th July, and Ex, then the next major OIP update, results from SA-1, SH-2 and the 3D Seimics, of which we do not know the date.
Baillie Gifford already have their 20,000,000,
Alliance Bernstein need circa 7,200,000,
HSBC Investments need circa 3,200,000,
JP Morgan Asset Management need 6,100,000,
Henderson New Star need circa 8,000,000,
Pershing new Jersey need 9,000,000,
Market Street Bank need 9,600,000
Deutsche Private Bank need 10,000,000
Total = 44,100,000
Since the 14th April when all this kicked off, and the Stock on loan was shorted into the RNS rise, there has been a total of over 140,000,000 of AT trades.
Assuming a third of that total has been bought by the Institutions above, then that equates to 46,100,000.
Are we seeing the final stages of their accumulation, the last throw of the dice with desperation showing in the rise of the Shares on Loan, or have I got the wrong end of the stick.
If I am correct, then the 26th July may be where this is all pointing too, or maybe Genel Vallares is the catalyst, or maybe I have gone stare GKP crazy.
I guess we will find out soon.
no dinner yet, so laters.
Mikey.
===
Barney71255
142UP
I believe the following is very very significant as an indicator of ICG acceptance of speicifically GKP and their developments in Kurdistan as part of working with the KRG. In Sept 2011 in Istanbul, Turkey under Energy Exchange will be the Iraq Future Energy 2011 Conference. Key Iraqi and Kurd Government officials will be involved including Parliaments Adnan Janabi Chairman Oil & Energy Committee and Shahristani's Electricity Minister, etc to promote Iraq for infrastructure investments in electricity and oil & gas.
So far so good but under Key Speakers/Advisors is listed Adnan Samarrai GKP Country Manager. Would the Iraqi central government be associated with GKP if there were not as least unofficially recognised?? I don't think so.
Even more interesting is that on Day 4 Samarrai's GKP topic is under Building Energy Infrastructure - what infrastructure can GKP boast about surely not just a few test processing kits?? Maybe a quick system upgrade for major export, pipelines, who knows what GKP can get such a distinguished involvement and promote Iraq/Kurdistan growth unless they have something very popular and positive to say otherwise I wouldn't see the central government rubbing shoulders with them in September?? Would you? Interesting times ahead....IMHO
Hopefully the below link works
Barney
http://core.theenergyexchange.co.uk/staging/assets/3/245/1254/1377/IRAQ_2011_Future_Energy_-_WEB.1.PDF
===
Okay Game On - 4 Scenarios 4 Fun
Nimomastik
13UP
Scenarios for the next 1 - 6 weeks.
Take your pick and roll the dice... But whatever you think, I won't forget that everyone on this BB is here because they have an interest in GKP and even those going short will IMO eventually have to buy their shares back.
So IMO the medium to long term downside is minimal, the upside phenominal and most importantly IMO the upside is INEVITABLE...
Scenario 1:
The nest BIG RNS is delayed a few weeks, the big money stays off the table and we fail to get above 150p with the 200 and 50 ema's happily married and flatlining and acting as resistance until the RNS or big buying re-starts.
Scenario 2
The consolidation breaks to the upside smashes thru 150p and off we go to test the next level of resistance.
Scenario 3
Sanddunes takeover bid was spot on and we all wake up one morning, some of us in cold sweat, with a text on our mobile saying RNS Takeover Offer. The price opens at the takeover bid (800p would be very pleasing), although i'm sure in the long term we can do so much better. On the other hand a 500p + offer would be cheeky. Either way i'm sure we'll all wish we'd put more faith in "how many" billions of barrels?
Scenario 4
The de-rampers come back to haunt us, (did they ever leave), the shorters sell some more shares and the bulls fail to buy the dip, the big money stays off the table and the price slides below 140p and tests 137p maybe even a quick dip to 130p. There is even the possibility of a dead X forming, or maybe thats just beingh manipulated and is just what the STAKE BUILDERS want us to think. Certainly as an end of day trader you might consider it wise to keep your stops below SIGNIFICANT points like 135p, 120p even 100p. I guess it just depends on your cash flow and tolerance to risk. The day traders will just keep gambling that there NOT out of GKP when the action starts again and i'm sure they all have their fingers on the buy button if we break to the upside.
GL - DYOR
==
Scramoge
131UP
Hi everyone
I used to be hooked on watching the GKP sp and III. Always checking, just in case the sp had gone boom. I had no patience, I wanted to be rich now, not in 6 or 12 months, I wanted T/O asap.
I got sick recently and had to learn to be patient and I did.
27th may into A&E, 2 days on trolley - lesson 1 in patience
29th may emergency surgery, wait 18 days for biopsy results - lesson 2
Got infection in wound, more surgery, biopsy results not good - lesson 3
50 days later and going home today, chemo starts tue and I am completely chilled out, I have learnt the art of being patient.
This applies to GKP for me as well, I need the sp to rise more than ever but could'nt give two hoots how long it takes, because I know it will do the business.
I would recommend all the longtermers chill,be patient, stop squabbling and wait patiently for the good times.
Sorrry for the ramble, not looking for sympathy just a bit sick of the squabbling.
Whenever it happens I WILL BE AT THE T/O PARTY
====
Author bonobo77 View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted today 08:32
Subject Chinese Whispers
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 20 times.
Message
SINOPEC has been rumoured as a t/o suitor before.
This is from The Telegraph in October 2009 -
Gulf Keystone Petroleum, meanwhile, jumped 23¼ to 105½p on speculation that the company is set to receive a bid at between 175p and 180p from Sinopec
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/marketreport/6263163/Miners-help-push-FTSE-past-5000-threshold.html#
And a couple months back, leesbillbob posted this -
Frank's visiting the great wall.Cinebank has Sinopec to fund for acquisition and development for immediate flow. Late summer would give enough time to prove up massive "world class" discoveries and gather indirect/direct indicators of other tracts. Chinese purchase/ late summer/ all four properties. Based on what I know. Frank will be a tourist. Sinopec has the funding available on evaluated properties.Sinopec has the facilities and expertise to quickly come on line.Watch how fast they move. My timetable is Q3'11 at the latest.
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3AGKP.L&threshold=0&it=le&action=detail&id=8194567
In fact, in a recent post I supplied links illustrating how GKP has been the subject of t/o speculation since we first sniffed oil at Shaikan: http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AGKP.L&display=discussion&action=detail&id=8536642&prevpost=8532881&nextpost=8538052
The t/o talk seems to be reaching fever pitch now. We had senn's dubious £5 mantra. Sanddunes is spitting blood about an £8 cap on what we might achieve. CJ has kindly shared the Chinese whispers, adding an extra whiff of credibility to leesbillbob's May post and possibly giving us a clue as to the destiny of some of that much publicised Chinese war chest of $36bn that has been earmarked for acquisitions in 2011.
GRH1 has confided rumours of an imminent FTSE listing and a tug of war over our back in rights. And in the last week, I have also been contacted by a respected investor who is not invested here but who caught wind that an offer in considerable excess of £8 could be forthcoming.
Perhaps the increased t/o talk is justified and approaches are being prepared and evaluated behind the scenes. Certainly, any potential acquirer would not simply wake up one morning and decide to make an offer. A long period of due diligence, fact finding, face-to-face discussions, number crunching and political manoeuvring would presage any offer. It is during this period that credible 'rumours' can rightly surface.
Maybe the heightened t/o talk is a consequence of excitement at the impending drill updates, likely resource upgrades and a rapidly improving political picture in Iraq/Kurdistan. There is a feeling that things are coming to a head for GKP, particularly in regard to Shaikan, and the coming months will determine the future of our prize asset.
Maybe the t/o rumours are the product of imaginations going into overdrive to relieve the 'boredom' of a range-bound SP.
Maybe it's idle ramping.
None of us really knows, but I'd say that it would be foolish to dismiss a t/o at this stage of our development. 2011 may be the year where all the rumours crystallise into a very big reality and we witness the 'auction' that TK pegged as his endgame. I will be holding every share I own going into that auction ... whether it happens today, tomorrow, this year or next, and whether it's Chevron, Sinopec or whoever doing the bidding.
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Asset Portfolio.
I am aware of the risk/reward situation for any possible buyer, I am also aware that the political situation HAS to come good for the future of Iraq and an Oil and Gas law WILL be implemented possibly within weeks. I was just responding to your 19.54 post where you state " imo there is no logical reason why Shaikan is enough to make a significant move for the company".
I have been here since early 2009 also and of course I remember the Addax deal with Sinopec, I also remember how Baghdad responded stopping Exports out of Kurdistan and Blacklisting of certain companies.
Lessons have to be learnt, and I am sure the KRG don't want to be turning the taps off again due to upsetting the apple cart in Baghdad once more.
Neither the KRG or Baghdad can afford this to happen. IMO there is a buyer for GKP and Todd and the KRG already know whom they are. We shall find out when the time is right, however, this will not be until the Oil and Gas law is in force. GKP are not going to be undersold, and this deal has to be done in the correct manor especially with a sale of possibly over 10 billion. I have highlighted the actions of Tony Hayward and Vallares in previous posts, due to his previous deals with Shahristani as BP CEO. Hayward is small fry to GKP's suitor and every NOC are aware that Kurdistan is the belle of the ball.(A popular, attractive girl or woman, especially the most attractive one of a group: the belle of the ball.)
I guess what I am trying to say is that I don't believe a suitor will be ALLOWED to bid for GKP or Shaikan at the moment (maybe behind closed doors but certainly not in the public domaine) . I believe that Hawrami and TK are playing this out perfectly that will result in shareholders approval. Come on,do you really think RAK would prefer DNO than GKP?? With the History between RAK and GKP Absolutely no way.
Politics have to be played out first here IMO, the SP alone should make most realise something does not add up (just look at it in a positive way). It's about time many stopped panicking here and saw the wood through the trees.
We have OIL, and LOTS OF IT, IMO we already have a buyer,
Whats a few more weeks or months for an investor. Ain't that what this game is about???
Glass half full!!!!
mrg
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Something for the next man..
Dalesmann
69UP
It’s been a while since I put out a NAV, perhaps now is the time to take another look at what GKP has on offer.
http://db.tt/cosWfb1
SOMETHING FOR THE NEXT MAN!
Adnan S in his recent newspaper article said that Shaikan could have upwards of 5 billion in RESERVES – not OIP. Zengas in his post has pointed out that the inference was that it could be more.
5 billion at 33% recovery implies a figure of approx 15 billion barrels OIP at Shaikan and this figure has been duly entered into the Nav.
In a TO situation there has to be something for the next man.
BP has stated that it expected to make a return of 20% on its service contract.
Ewan has stated that they should get north of 6%, after all taxes, for a recovered barrel (after cost oil has been extracted.) So lets say $6.3/barrel on $100 oil.
I have therefore decided to use $4.2/barrel=($6.3-33%x6.3) in my calculations, as this would allow a 33% margin for the next man. More return than BP are expecting in the south.
The next man is likely to be a NOC – like Sinopec - who have historically been willing to pay over the odds for reserves in line with their quest for continuity of supply. In the case of Addax $6 was the going rate.
Many thanks to Mr. Average for his work on comparative TO rates.
The NAV has duly been tweaked to give $4.2, which represents a 7% return before ASIP(Average Sale Price; Associate of the Society of Investment Professional), and the 10% top slice is applied. The figs are therefore conservative but IMHO inline with what the next man would be willing to pay.
After such deductions the NAV returns 2432mbo to GKP at Shaikan and this gives an unrisked figure of £8.33. (£6.25 risked at 75%)
Given the possibility of $200+ oil (See bodymindspirits post) it is a fair assumption that a NOC like Sinopec or a super major like Conoco would be willing to go to the $6 Addax figure. This results in an unrisked £11.90 and a risked figure of £8.93 for Shaikan alone.
After all, provided the PSCs hold, the margin to a NOC/IOC would increase with a rising oil price. Achieving the Addax benchmark is not out of the question.
If there is a bidding war these figures are not out of the question.
THE SUM OF THE PARTS….
The next question to consider is what form a sale of GKP assets would take.
Selling off the parts may reach a greater return than selling off the whole
Selling Shaikan for $4.2/barrel would raise £6.25/ share
Selling Shaikan for $6 would raise £8.93/ share
Akri Bijeel must be about to report. Some time ago UBS put 7.2billion up as an OIP figure for this huge block (I now think this will turn out to be conservative)
With Beckme about to be at TD then tested and Barkman to follow I think there is considerable upside at Bijeel.
Using this fig and holding all the variables as described above give 94p unrisked and 66p risked using UBS figs.
Using the $6 Addax benchmark this rises to £1.34 and 94p respectively
Selling off these two blocks could therefore raise a considerable amount to use in the continued exploration of Ber Bahr and Sheikh Adi with a subsequent uplift of the OIP figs as these blocks are explored and appraised.
Selling off the whole company gives a current target price of £15.10 using $4.2/barrel and the assumptions above.
And £21.51 using $6
If you halve these figures £7.55 and £10.25 respectively – effectively halving my oil price assumptions the upside remains considerable
All IMHO and I urge you to do your own research… No advice given etc.!
Kind regards
Dalesman
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"Super-giant" 'elephant' field
SpikeyDT
21UP
Billion barrel oil finds
http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/InvestmentGuides/Shares/article/20110721/5dae059a-b378-11e0-a6c3-00144f2af8e8/Billion-barrel-oil-finds.jsp
Created: 21 July 2011 Written by: Martin Li
"Everybody loves to go elephant hunting," says John Gerstenlauer, chief operating officer of Gulf Keystone Petroleum. "Why go after small game when you can shoot something big?" he asks.
Oil men often talk about supergiant 'elephant' fields that contain not millions or even hundreds of millions, but potentially billions of barrels of oil. And Gulf Keystone looks as though it has bagged itself at least a brace of such elephants in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq. The company is one of a small band of junior explorers hunting billion-barrel oil fields. Needless to say, juniors need to find just one of these elephants to completely transform their share prices.
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http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=21783165&from=98124
"...so the two sides reached to an agreement according which the federal government recognized those contracts and allowed the flow and export of crude oil from the fields of Kurdistan Region within the terms that achieved the balance between the two parties"
http://shafaaq.com/en/news/39-news/1510-kurdistan-declares-its-oil-exports-to-rise-to-175-thousand-barrels-per-day.html
contracts recognised !!!!!!!!!!!
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IEA rules out extending emergency oil
SpikeyDT
7UP
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/97e063ec-b39c-11e0-b56c-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1SkjYw6T8
July 21, 2011 2:43 pm
IEA rules out extending emergency oil release
By David Blair, Energy Correspondent
The International Energy Agency will not repeat its decision to draw on strategic oil reserves when the current 30-day release ends on Saturday, the organisation has announced.
Instead, the IEA said on Thursday that its board’s decision to make available 60m barrels of oil from June 23 had achieved its goal. The stated aim was to cover the gap between the loss of Libyan output and higher production by Opec members to make up the shortfall.
“The action served a market need by adding liquidity and bridging the gap to additional supplies from Opec countries,” said a statement from the IEA’s secretariat
However, the decision to draw on strategic reserves for only the third time in the agency’s 37-year history had only a temporary impact on oil prices. Brent crude, the most important benchmark, traded up 10 cents at $118.25 on Thursday, similar to the level recorded before the IEA chose to draw on the stockpiles held in its member states. The move reversed intraday losses of almost $1 for Brent. West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, rose 55 cents to $98.95 a barrel.
The IEA added that major Opec producers, notably Saudi Arabia, had increased their own output in response to Libya’s shutdown and the expected increase in demand for crude over the summer.
Last month, the kingdom is believed to have pumped an extra 700,000 b/d, bringing its total production to 9.7m b/d. In all, the IEA estimates that Opec output rose by 840,000 b/d to just over 30m b/d.
The IEA secretariat commended this “sharp rise in Opec oil production”, saying it should “substantially cover” the expected increase in demand for crude oil as refineries return to service after routine maintenance.
But many analysts believe the modest impact on prices shows that the IEA’s original decision to draw on its stockpile may have been a mistake.
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Re: Candles, bears and bulls.
investor48
35UP
Due respect to Zen,
How much monies have you put into GKP?!I know thats confidential,but judging by the way you posts,i actually doubt that you are in GKP for the long haul!!
Apologies if i am wrong.Zen does post on other boards,but i can safely say that 99.99percent of my posts are only GKP and GKP only!!
Zen,you do not have to agree,but my guess is ,you are with a broker and you trade for a living!
I have spend more time on GKP than most people can imagine!!
On Akri-Bijeel 1,my assessment from most geologists that i have met and the same conclusion drawn are:
1.MOL drilled on the worst location that they had,to actually have a decent probability of finding commercial oil was nearly close to 10percent,and yet they have found commercial oil on AB-1 and an OIP P50 of 2.5billion barrels!!
2.That the Hungarian Government was in the midst of buying Surgut's share in MOL,and MOL deliberately drilled in a location that most geologist would have lost their job if they were working in MOL,and yet MOL found a sizeable oil field by world standards!!
It is so easy to draw conclusions from the SP which many did last year when GKP was trading below 70p!!We had great computer programmes that were predicting a SP of 28p,which has no fundamental basis but just pure rubbish!!
Zen,was also extremely negative sub 70p, we go through his past postings!
I am not been blinded to negative news but let's set the record straight, that politics have improved leaps and bounds and many still bring up the same issues over and over again!!I have met many fund managers,many are so frightened to lose monies that they will only buy on certainty which everyone could also be buying, once all risks are off the table!!
As for Excalibur,let's do not kid ourselves that they are being funded and the funders are probably having a great time trading on GKP whilst it keeps everyone guessing that they have a chance to succeed in the suit!!
As i have said before,if they continue with the suit,i will not put it beyond GKP,that Excalibur are wasting GKP's mangement time and indirectly weighing down on GKP's SP,a counter suit is indeed justified!!
Who suffers?The innocent honest investors that bought GKP higher than current prices are the ones suffering and the backers of Excalibur have certainly achieved their commercial objective,IMHO.
To all GKpians,patience,patience and patience!!Be steadfast,we are into interesting days and weeks!
Goodluck and best wishes to all
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so the two sides reached to an agreement according which the federal government recognized those contracts and allowed the flow and export of crude oil from the fields of Kurdistan Region within the terms that achieved the balance between the two parties.
Thu 16:28
Good news from oakie (BARX)
Ginty_p
15UP
From Bloomberg , David Tweed in Brussels ...Economic editor
1) The interest rate on Greece bailout loans will be slashed 3.5 % ( was 7.5% )
2)Greece will have twice as long to repay money 15 yrs now
(same conditions extended to Portugal & Ireland ! Great news for Ireland)
3)Private investors are being invited to play their part with a variety of options open to them .
David Tweed in Brussels ...Economic editor
4) Temporary rescue fund maybe allowed to buy bonds in 2nd market & allows countries to recapitalize banks , by lending money to Governments.
5) ESSF will allow precautionary lines of credit in certain circumstances.
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Establish a coalition to control Iraq’s ...
SpikeyDT
1UP
Establish a coalition to control Iraq’s oil
Posted: July 22, 2011 by THE CURRENCY NEWSHOUND -
Baghdad, July 22 (Rn) – Iraq on Friday announced the establishment of the “coalition of the Extractive Industries Transparency” in an attempt to control the oil, gas and mining in the country.
Iraq seeks to modernize the economy devastated by years of wars and international sanctions and violence, but relies heavily on foreign giants to help him in ages.
Iraq signed a series of oil agreements with major companies through which tries to increase its oil production to four times its current size.
A spokesperson for the Alliance Abbas Ghalibi Kurdistan News Agency (Rn) “We are trying through our alliance to draw the largest amount of civilian efforts to control the extractive industries in Iraq.”
Iraq relies almost 90 percent for oil in the economy. The subsoil is rich in many minerals, notably sulfur and phosphate as well as metals and others.
Iraq has the third largest oil reserves in the world is that place atheist century in a list of the largest producing countries.
And the agreements can be signed by Iraq to raise production from 2.7 million barrels per day to nearly 12 million barrels per day within six years.
He Ghalibi “will seek coalition (of Iraq) to achieve transparency in the extractive industries.”
“The alliance of the Extractive Industries Transparency includes a number of organizations of civil society and economic figures and the media.”
He joined Iraq in the last year to “Transparency Initiative Extractive Industries” that sets global standards for transparency with regard to mining.
Companies should disclose the tax and royalty payments to governments to call on governments to provide proof of receipt of such payments.
Iraq plans to improve his reputation as a country suffering from corruption and abuse of its vast oil wealth.
Iraq tops the ranking fifth from bottom in the annual report of Transparency International on corruption, which covers 180 countries.
Iraqis often complain of government corruption and says that he and many of them behind the poor state of electricity, water and other basic services.
http://wp.me/pZC7o-9rV
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19:17
Re: Overnight Orders left on the Book
MikeyAdmin
4UP
FiFi.
Hi, Volume is indeed important, but it takes News to provide Volume.
Any stock can rise by small amounts on small Volume and still end up where large Volume would take them, but more slowly.
With GKP that can happen, but they are AIM's listed, which means they are a volitile stock, meaning that when good News does come, it will react with High Volumes and a steep rise.
Previous Good News has been suppressed, IMHO, to allow Institutions to get in, but the signs IMHO are turning, which means to me at least, that the Institutions have enough, and they are releasing it from their grasp.
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18:44
Gramacho & Dr Shahristani
Chicago Jack
8UP
It was reported on CNN/BBC that Gramacho had taken Dr Shahristani out for a round of Golf . Looks like an agreement as now been reached.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qy2WCe5uk6s
Forgive me Gramacho-but I know you enjoy your golf and now know why.
Regards
CJ
If I am reading the signs correctly, then then good News is on its way, and IMHO, they are pointing to possible days or maybe a week or so.
That good News IMHO will be the catalyst along with the signals to provide the Volume we all want.
Monday will hopefully provide further comfirmation.
Mikey
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17:34
About time...
Utopia79
17UP
...we started moving north again! Many of us have been here for what seems like a decade but for sure some time soon the fundamentals will prevail and take hold. We have seen turbulent times recently with the debt crisis in the eurozone but remember that it all is too big to fail - Angela Merkel knows what could happen if Greece would default. Also in the US they have no choice but to raise the debt ceiling because should they not it would be catastrophic for the the markets, plummeting the whole world back into a great depression.
But let us all take time out to remember that there are more important things in life that this share. Blacksash's new baby makes us realise that we all need to get real. I for one am as bad as the next man following this share to death - following the BB, watching the ramping, de-ramping etc.
We all know that good things are just around the corner and for that reason I keep my core holding in a a very safe place. Let's just say that I am very confident with my holding. For those that have been invested for what seems a lifetime (I have been here since 2009). We have seen this played to death by the MM's but in my personal opinion we will be heading north in the not too distant future. This is not a ramp but just an opinion from a fellow holder that has had the patience to hold in times of turbulence like what we have seen recently.
I sit here, hold my shares and try to accumulate on weakness like the next man and look forward to this T/O party that we all know it is coming - it's gonna be a great occasion.
Anyway back to real life - I raise my glass to Blacksash and his new baby - best wishes to you and your wife!
I will continue to follow the GKP story - watching as things unfold here. As for Excaliber I don't reckon they will have the guts to continue with the case - but we will see in the coming weeks.
Good luck as always to all long termers and newbies.
Utop. (Rambling on lol)
=
17:12
Re: Message to GKP pr dept
thechelskikid
13UP
You donyt get it do you? They didn't pay £250k to continue the case. They were ordered to pay that. Whether they continue or not we will see but the initial payment is not an indicator.
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Don't forget the £250,000 paid to GKP was just an INTERIM payment.
Excalibur probably owe another £250,000 to GKP .... and have to find about £500,000 more to pay Clifford Chance.
So, it has already cost them (or their backer) £1 MILLION so far.
The decision about taking it forward from here will be crucial, and IMHO Justice Gloster put enough hints in her report to suggest that Excalibur's lawyers need to think very carefully about doing so. Remember that Rex's brother Eric is a lawyer too, and he was one of the officers in Excalibur ventures so IMO he has even more to lose than just money.
IMHO, Excalibur will only take it to the next stage if their 'backer' sees some mileage in it. They have until 26th July to decide before those legal costs start mounting again.
GLA, scaramouche
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Express-Buyers back on Heritage trail:
Middle and Far East predators pumped up Heritage Oil to a three-month high yesterday
Friday July 22,2011
By David Shand
TALK of renewed bid interest from Middle and Far East predators pumped up Heritage Oil to a three-month high yesterday.
Shares in the £670million Kurdistan-focused explorer, which earlier this year was reported to have turned down a 425p-a-share approach from an Abu Dhabi-based suitor, gushed 12¾p higher to 252¼p. Traders reckoned the company was attracting interest from Chinese and Korean companies as well as from the Middle East.
16:40
Daily Volumes
MikeyAdmin
24UP
Auction, 147.25p, 148p, 146p, 148.5p, 149.75p, 14 8.5p, 148p, 147.75p, 148p and closed. Nice
2,841,742, LSE
825,350, Plus.
3,667,092, Total
AT's, 1,491,742
UT, 166,445 and a Buy Auction
SP, 148p, Happy with that
Woop Woop.
I told you all last weekend we would finish higher by the end of the week. After a shakey start Monday, we met my expected target.
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09:43
Re: Starlight Express - Dalesman
onlookout
18UP
Brilliant post Dalesman, and one that echoes my own thoughts that could not have been articulated as well as you have.
I work as a business analyst in the sleepy Life and pensions sector, and often despair about some of the weak & non-existent business cases I am forced to work with, pushed by blinkered execs with self-interest. The business case of GKP’s asset and the motivations of all parties involved (KRG, Iraq government, Oil majors) does nothing but excite me.
I am certainly not bored; indeed, quite excited with anticipation…………
Good luck all!
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apologies if already posted, no position in gkp but thought you may want to read the link (not posting elsewhere apart from chartsview)..feel free to copy and paste to relevant bb.
Includes ref to gkp/char/mxp/bpc/rrl/bor/fogl etc
Billion barrel oil finds
Created: 21 July 2011Written by: Martin Li
"Everybody loves to go elephant hunting," says John Gerstenlauer, chief operating officer of Gulf Keystone Petroleum. "Why go after small game when you can shoot something big?" he asks.
Oil men often talk about supergiant 'elephant' fields that contain not millions or even hundreds of millions, but potentially billions of barrels of oil. And Gulf Keystone looks as though it has bagged itself at least a brace of such elephants in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq. The company is one of a small band of junior explorers hunting billion-barrel oil fields. Needless to say, juniors need to find just one of these elephants to completely transform their share prices.
The billion-barrel oil hunters
Created: 22 July 2011Written by: Martin Li
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP)
Gulf Keystone's Shaikan-1 exploration well in Kurdistan could be the most successful well drilled anywhere over the past decade. Appraisal drilling following the initial discovery in 2009 suggests that the Shaikan structure could hold up to 11bn barrels of oil. Mr Gerstenlauer believes it could prove even larger.
The Kurdistan region of northern Iraq was largely ignored during the rule of Saddam Hussein and contains many large oil structures that are clearly visible on the surface yet weren't drilled. Shaikan was one such structure and the presence of oil is further evidenced by extensive oil seeps streaked across surface rocks.
Gulf Keystone's country manager, Adnan Samarrai, recognised Shaikan's potential immediately having seen many similar structures during 45 years’ experience working with Iraq Petroleum Company and Iraq National Oil Company, and it was he who suggested the company drill this as its first prospect. Two wells each flowed 10,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) and the company will soon make its first oil exports. On completion of a second production facility, output could reach over 35,000 bopd by the end of next year.
Massive though Shaikan looks likely to be, it is just one of Gulf Keystone's four Kurdistan licences. The company also drilled a successful exploration well at Akri Bijeel, which could prove as large as Shaikan. It is currently drilling a smaller exploration target at Sheikh Adi, with results expected imminently, and its biggest prospect is still to come – the Ber Bahr licence where Turkish energy group Genel is the operator.
Exploring the Ber Bahr licence is complicated by its proximity to the city of Dohuk, but Mr Gerstenlauer estimates it could be even bigger than Shaikan. Genel is expected to begin drilling in September with first results due around the end of the year.
Juniors that have already bagged an elephant (or two) generally need very substantial news to propel their share prices further, although Gulf Keystone’s ongoing exploration, particularly at Ber Bahr, could provide just that fuel. However, given the scale of its discoveries, it's difficult to conceive that Gulf Keystone will ultimately develop them through to full-scale production. Shaikan alone would probably require hundreds of wells to exploit, which makes it more the territory of a national oil company. A likely scenario would be a takeover by a resource-hungry national oil company such as China's Sinopec, which acquired London-listed Addax Petroleum for $7.3bn (£4.5bn) in 2009.
Range Resources (RRL)/Red Emperor (RMP)
Range Resources offers massive hydrocarbon potential underpinned by existing production – with pirates and hostage ships (the rig had to be brought in under frigate escort) spicing up the normal exploration risks. Range's greatest exploration potential lies in the Puntland state of northern Somalia, which is geologically similar to the 5-10bn barrel hydrocarbon basins in nearby Yemen, but where no wells have been drilled since 1992.
Licence operator Africa Oil plans to start drilling in Puntland in August, with two wells each targeting over a billion barrels net. Range will fund its 20 per cent share of the gross $20m-$25m drilling costs for the Dharoor prospect, which is targeting 1.2bn barrels net, while partners will fund Range’s drilling costs for Nugaal, which is targeting 2.5bn barrels net.
Before the excitement begins in Puntland, Range has just started drilling its substantial acreage in the former Soviet republic of Georgia. Seismic surveys to determine drill locations were assisted by a helium survey (only the second project outside Russia to use this technology), which director Peter Landau estimates can improve the chances of success from one-in-eight to around one-in-two. The top-six prospects on these blocks are estimated to hold 728m barrels of oil (Range's interest is 40 per cent) and are ready to drill. The well that just started drilling is Vani 3, which is targeting 115m barrels gross. This will be followed by potentially an even larger prospect.
For purer exposure to the same projects, undampened by production, Australia-listed Red Emperor recently floated on the Alternative Investment Market. Red Emperor holds 20 per cent interests in the same Puntland and Georgia licences as Range.
Borders & Southern (BOR)/Falkland Oil & Gas (FOGL)
The Falklands oil story continues to fascinate, even though last year's drilling campaign in the North Falkland basin returned just a solitary discovery for Rockhopper Exploration, leaving fellow explorer Desire Petroleum close to ruin.
While Rockhopper continues to appraise its Sea Lion strike – recent confirmation of commercial flow rates is encouraging – attention is turning to the largely unexplored South Falkland basin. The prospect sizes here are an order of magnitude larger than those in the north, although the targets are more remote, water depths are greater and the lack of previous drilling heightens geological risk. After years of trying to contract a suitable rig, Borders & Southern secured use of the Leiv Eriksson, an ultra-deep water, harsh-environment rig of which there are only around a dozen in the world. This will sail for the South Atlantic once it has completed drilling in Greenland this summer for Cairn Energy. Borders expects to drill the first of two exploration wells in late December, after which Falkland Oil & Gas (FOGL) will drill two exploration wells next year.
Borders chief executive Howard Obee highlights several factors that mitigate the otherwise significant risks of exploring a 'wildcat' frontier. Geophysical signatures provide strong indications of hydrocarbons while three-dimensional (3D) seismic surveys help pinpoint optimum drilling locations along a trend that stretches west from Borders' acreage to a basin that has produced 6bn barrels of oil.
Borders will first drill the Darwin prospect, which has an estimated size of 300m-760m barrels of oil recoverable, and then the Stebbing prospect, which is estimated at 710m-1,280m barrels recoverable. Between them, these two wells will target nearly $20bn of value.
Following the two Borders wells, FOGL will drill its Loligo prospect and then a second well still to be decided. To give an idea of prospect scale, FOGL’s chief executive, Tim Bushell, says the Loligo structure covers an area the size of Greater London. Loligo has estimated mean prospective resources of 4.7bn barrels, although recoverable oil, for comparison with the Borders prospects, will be lower.
The chief executives caution that any discoveries will need to be at least 100m barrels of oil (and any gas discoveries will need to be multiple trillions of cubic feet) to stand any chance of being commercial. Mr Obee adds that each discovery will need to be commercial on a standalone basis since each is likely to be developed using a floating production and storage vessel rather than through a platform that could be shared. Nevertheless, these four wells could open up a new petroleum province with multi-billion barrel potential and investor interest will inevitably heighten through the autumn.
Chariot Oil & Gas (CHAR)
Chariot Oil & Gas is exploring the Namibian margin, which in total extends along 1,000 km of coastline, making it comparable in size to the North Sea. However, in contrast to the North Sea, only nine exploration wells have ever been drilled off the coast of Namibia and the hydrocarbon potential is vast.
What enhances the credibility of Chariot's licences is the partnership (farm-in) investment by Petrobras. The Brazilian state giant knows a thing or two about deepwater exploration having discovered supergiant fields off the coast of Rio over the past three years.
The latest independent report on Chariot's licence areas estimates gross mean unrisked prospective resource potential of 16.1bn barrels (the number of recoverable barrels will again be lower), which is up from 10.1bn barrels estimated last October. The increase incorporates further resources identified in the Tapir complex in the northern licence and the Nimrod prospect identified in the south.
The Nimrod prospect alone has been estimated to have a mean size of 4.87bn barrels, which is huge, with a chance of success of 24 per cent, which is relatively good for frontier exploration. Risking the prospect portfolio to reflect the uncertainties of exploration still leaves Chariot with a substantial net potential of 1.5bn barrels of oil.
The market continues to wait for Chariot to finalise farm-in deals to ease the way to near-term drilling of its huge targets, although a £90m placing has removed much of the financial pressure. The farm-ins have taken longer than expected to conclude, although Chariot announced last month that it had signed heads of terms with two companies for two of its licence areas, with discussions continuing over the third. Chariot still hopes to drill the first of a minimum of two wells late this year, or at the latest early next year.
Bahamas Petroleum (BPC)
Beneath the sparsely explored waters of the Bahamas are believed to lurk supergiant oilfields. In a story similar to that of Chariot, Bahamas Petroleum has completed one farm-in deal (with Statoil), is in discussions over further deals and plans to begin drilling some massive prospects within a year.
Two independent studies recently verified the exceptional size of the prospects targeted. These include some of the largest structures identified to date in the wider Gulf of Mexico area, and are similar to the supergiant structures of the Mexican fields in the southern Gulf of Mexico and the Middle East.
The company is acquiring 3D seismic data to better define prospects, although drilling has now slipped from late this year to 2012. Even so, Bahamas continues to discuss a deal to introduce a second farm-in partner, the conclusion of which should act as the next of a series of significant share price catalysts as the company progresses towards drilling.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate 2.5bn barrels of prospective resources, so any drilling success could result in a huge rise in the share price.
Max Petroleum (MXP)
It's always good to hunt elephants where elephants have already been found. This is exactly what Max Petroleum is offering as it explores the province of western Kazakhstan close to the supergiant oil fields of Kashagan (13bn barrels), Karachaganak (14bn barrels) and Tengiz (9bn barrels).
Max’s portfolio divides into comparatively shallow ‘post-salt’ (above salt) prospects and deeper ‘pre-salt’ prospects that lie beneath layers of salt (similar to the supergiant discoveries in the Santos basin offshore Brazil). Salt provides a good seal to prevent oil migrating away, but makes seismic imaging, and therefore understanding the geology, much more difficult. Max has drilled three discoveries out of nine post-salt exploration wells and is producing more than 2,000 bopd. However, it is the imminent deep drilling of two pre-salt wells that is causing the greatest investment stir. Max's pre-salt portfolio further sub-divides into Type I and Type II prospects. Type II prospects are more exciting because they share common characteristics. This means that success on one Type II well will increase the chances of success of subsequent Type II wells. By contrast, Type I prospects tend to be individual and success on one won't necessarily de-risk subsequent prospects.
Max's first pre-salt well will be the Type II Emba B. Its prospects aren't on the scale of Kashagan; Emba B will target a mean resource of 467m barrels, making it a relatively small elephant. However, if the well is successful, the greatly improved odds of making further Type II discoveries could lead to enough strikes to add up in total to a supergiant field. Pre-salt drilling is expected to begin in September.
Regards
T/s
===
I'm told by someone with considerable experience of commercial litigation that if Justice Gloster deems that Excalibur's action is 'vexatious' then GKP will be able to counter sue not only Excalibur but also the backer.
IMHO there is considerable risk for the said backer in proceeding with this action.
Dalesmann
==
Fri 23:18
Re: Justice Gloster....tobycups..
peakyblack
17UP
I'm surprised this hasn't generated more interest this evening. This court document confirms that Excalibur have a maximum target claim of £300mn and not 30% of our assets. (which since they are not recognised by the KRG is I guess not surprising. The KRG are hardly going to write them into the PSC if they win when they weren't even eligible to bid for licenses)
Interesting that their backer only wanted to risk $2mn and that the judge has said no that's not enough. I guess we will know this week if the backer has the balls to go for it and risk being countersued.
Question: Since Excalibur don't have a pot to pee in of their own, who do GKP countersue for damages to our company and reputation?
Fri 21:36
Re: GKP Website Article
scaramouche
32UP
Hi CJ,
Thanks very much for the endorsement but, if I was to do the PR for GKP, I would be very surprised if it tuned into a long-term contract! 6 to 12 months at most, I reckon!
I agree with you that the IC article itself is nothing special and, if anything, about one month out-of-date....
Extract: "Two wells each flowed 10,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) and the company will SOON make its first oil exports." - Exports according to the Ben Lando report actually started more than one month ago.
But, if we hadn't been reading these boards lately, I don't think we would have come up with Sinopec as being in the frame. All the talk until the last week or two had been of KNOC.
The other point I would make is that this is the Second article recently that GKP has chosen to publish on their website, in effect endorsing the content. The first was Adnan Samarrai saying that he expected 15 billion OIP from Shaikan (5 billion reserves) - a figure that has now started to get discussed more freely. And this one specifically mentions Sinopec... and not KNOC.
I can't see TK allowing something to be published on the GKP website which had incorrect/misleading information. And I do rather wonder whether it is a new ploy to get people to appreciate the news that might be just around the corner... without him being able to release an RNS about it just yet.
Fascinating times!
GLA, scaramouche
==
Fri 19:02
Re: Message to GKP pr dept..Gwatwar
MikeyAdmin
23UP
Excalibur issued Claims in two Jurisdictions, London and New York.
GKP challenged the Claim to be heard in New York and took it to the Admiralty Court in London for a Ruling.
Excalibur Counter Claimed that it should be held in New York.
Justice Gloster heard the Proceedings and made her Ruling.
Exclaibur LOST that Case.
That Ruling in words you would not understand, like frivilous and chancers, condemed Excalibur, which gave them clues what would happen should they continue.
Excalibur LOST that Case, and awarded Costs to GKP, which were Interim Costs
Justice Gloster awarded Interim Costs to GKP to be paid by the 16th June, which if not paid, would result in them being in Contempt of Court.
Do you get it. Excalibur LOST the Case to be heard in New York, so they have all the Costs to cover.
Interim Costs = part of, partial, like a deposit, more to be paid.
Now you are either too dim witted to realise and its you that laughable, Bless.
Mikey.
===
Author Dalesmann View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted Friday 01:40
Subject Starlight Express
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 97 times.
Message
This is a long post!
Firstly I need to copy a post from Advfn which triggered my response. This post is food for thought in itself. It tells a story that must have been mirrored thousands of times. I would ask that you at least stick with this introductory post for it graphically illustrates what is happening and has happened to many GKP investors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
mhin2 - 21 Jul'11 - 23:23 - 98197 of 98208
Dont know what the problem is with GKP. My feel is that the SP is being held back on pretext of awaiting news (court case, oil contracts, clarity of deal with KRG)while somebody (bodies) is/are accummulating...I have reduced my holding from 88,000 in early days to 40,000 three months ago to 10,000 now. That money (profit) went into other stocks that have fallen by much more than GKP in the very turbulent and downward aim markets from Feb...I would have been much better off staying in GKP. Nevertheless, I think we are in the end game, and there will be a clearout to accummulate shares in the near future (dont think the recent drop to £1.30 was it, although I am quite happy to buy some at that price). Further seems to me also that China, India etc have not yet, but might be about to start buying over companies to ensure resource supply (and this is not for exports, but to meet rising domestic demand- hence why commentators do not see a fall in resource prices despite a recognition of western declining demand). China and India account for 37% of all humans on the planet...the next most populous countries are the USA and Indonesia with 4.5% and 3.4% of world population. Demand is going to grow and peak oil has been achieved...work it out
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Good evening mhin
I think that there is more than a grain of truth in your post and there may indeed be bigger forces at work. Whatever the answer is to that little riddle there is one unavoidable conclusion. GRH has posted that when we actually come to a TO situation, there will be very few PIs still in the game. That conclusion is likely to become true and your post aptly demonstrates why.
Many punters will have left through a mixture of boredom, or a belief that the grass appears to be greener in other shares, or for those who have not done their own research, through fear! Your own actions in reducing your holding graphically demonstrate this process in action and I commend your honesty in laying out your GKP story. I'm sure you are not alone.
You say that we may well be in the end game. I agree and there may be a limited time left toget back onboard the GKP Express.
LOL – so far it has felt more like a slow old wheezing stopping train on a forgotten rural branch line rather than an Express but that, IMHO, is about to change !
Suddenly there appears to be a growing pragmatism in pronouncements coming out of Iraq central. The importance of Kurdistan oil providing an immediate revenue stream to a cash strapped Iraqi government appears to be opening doors to the majors who have so far shunned the KRG due to fear of loosing lucrative service contracts in the south.
A sea change has occurred with these contracts, there have been calls to re-negotiate them as the Majors realise that the infrastructure that they were taking over was, in reality, totally clapped out and the time needed to bring these fields into production was going to take considerably longer and involve considerably more expenditure than they first expected, delaying their profits and adding little to their immediate balance sheets.
The inability to deliver planned production has led to Iraq having to reduce their production targets and therefore reduce the expected revenue which was always inflated. Perhaps this is down to Mr Sharistani’s lack of experience in the oil business
Under these political constraints and with the 'Arab Spring' adding a certain momentum to the political process, the KRG PSC contracts suddenly begin to look attractive as the risks are not attributable to the Oil Ministry. The associated costs and expenditure involved in drilling exploration wells is firmly on the shoulders of the exploration company who have to finance the risks up to the point where a field development plan has been drawn up and production actually starts. Up to this point all costs and associated risks have to be found from their own resources.
It is interesting that the field development plan at Shaikan has been pre-empted by the KRG asking GKP to begin production right away, before the development plan has been submitted. Such is the urgency to get the oil to market.
The KRG model has clearly demonstrated the efficiency of the PSC model. Multiple drills are taking place as 42 companies explore Kurdistan - probably the very last on-land oil province with ‘elephant fields’ left on the planet. Three companies including GKP have already shown that they can quickly bring that oil to market.
Returning to our company, the success of GKP in proving up its acreage is commendable. However the KRG is IMHO now looking way beyond our little company. They need the oil extracted and quickly, and to be frank, GKP is just not up to the job!
I'm sure that Mr Harami and Todd both know this and both have the same common objective - to get a Major to take over Shaikan.
The KRG through its own actions has demonstrated the need for a major oil player with access to enough rigs and associated equipment to get the job done quickly; this major having enough funds to expedite and develop the field without delay in order to get Kurdistan petro dollars flowing into Iraqi coffers as soon as possible. This is why the endgame is upon us.
So we arrive at this moment in time currently defined by Maliki visiting China, a country with trillions of dollars at its disposal and a country looking for security of supply. Mihn2, you have very cogently explained in your post what factors are motivating countries like India, China and Korea. What a coincidence that the visit is taking place right now.
Recently we heard a rumour that KNOC may well have competition for the backin rights and Sinopec has been mentioned in this context. Why stop at the backin rights given the need to gain access to much needed oil reserves?
One thing that China has been able to demonstrate is their ability to develop infrastructure. Their activities highlighted by posts on 3i today in building a 500km railways and port facilities in Australia to extract iron ore is a testament to their ability to conceive and then enact large infrastructure projects. This is exactly what Iraq wants and needs and it is this that drives Maliki to China.
Into this bigger picture is thrown little GKP. The job is all but done at Shaikan and I get the feeling that the baton(A slender wooden stick or rod used by a conductor to direct an orchestra or band.) is about to be passed to a bigger player.
That player may not be from the Far East.
Faced with the prospect that Shaikan, a super giant, field, may fall to the Chinese, Majors like Exxon, Shell or Conoco may well feel the need to act and act now. They too need the oil as their reserves are declining and with them their future bottom line profits. These Super Majors have to run to stay still. They need the billions of OIP offered by Shaikan in order to balance their already under threat balance sheets.
I have mentioned before the concept of a tipping point approaching. It may well be already upon us and the politics that have so far held up takeovers in Kurdistan will become a secondary concern as the needs of Iraq, NOCs and IOCs all converge. Shaikan may well be the catalyst needed to take Iraqi reconstruction one station stop further along the lengthy reconstruction line.
So when you say that we are in the end game - I am inclined to agree.
The GKP Starlight Express is now leaving the penultimate station - you will need your tickets to board and enjoy the remainder of the ride.
Kind regards
Dalesman
==
14:42
Excalibur risk context
zengas
11UP
As regards the $510m limit that excalibur can claim for, to put it in perspective works out about 39p fully diluted if it was to be even remotely fully successful. Imo it couldn't go higher than that as it's capped. While it might appear a substantial amount, imo it's not especially in the context of further OIP upside, exports and potential bid - if Shaikan itself holds 2.5 billion bls net recoverable reserves to GKP and if only $2.50 - $3.50/b used = 500p - 700p/share less risk for claim of 39p (using 800m shares fully diluted). There are variables on the amount of oil in Shaikan/recovery factor etc yet to be announced so could be a lower/higher s/p. I think the upside will be higher and i've discounted the extent of risk from Excalibur long ago, versus the overall upside value of GKP.
There's the upside from the Bijeel and Sheikh-Adi discoveries and the potential yet to come from Bechme, Shaikan 2nd prospect, Barkman and BerBahr still in it for free.
So imo and in context the risk from Excalibur = 0p - 39p max, against potential value of GKP running into pounds.
===
14:18
Ready to rumble.......
Jack Diamonds
12UP
Good afternoon all,
Back from holidays all refreshed and ready to rumble....
Many thanks to "Aconcagua" (you know who you are) for loan of your pad in such a wonderful location.
Left the UK on Wednesday 13th July via Eurotunnel at around 10 in the morning. To my sheer amazement sat down for coffee and on the next table was Tony Hayward with his family (I assume).
Mrs D didn't quite take on board the relevance, only that she recognised him from the telly. A billion things run through your mind - Should I approach him (?), What to say (?), should I corner him at Travelex (?) etc, should I leave him alone (?)...............Well, what would you do?
Great to read back through all the posts and good to hear that the majority think we have interesting times ahead.
Regarding the court case, I agree with the view that the backer is exposed to considerable risk by proceeding with action. I would also point out that the legal system takes a very dim view of law firms supporting "vexatious" litigation (Take note Clifford Chance, as I'm sure you have !!).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vexatious_litigation
I also see alot of talk re NAV valuations on a "fill to spill" scenario and the resulting calculations that follow. I'd like to point out if you are going to use 60-100 Billion Barrels in an assessment then you should also IMO use the full authorised share capital.
Just as an example, if a bid comes in all of the options and warrants would also come into play increasing the share cap effectively.
As at 31 Dec 2010 there were 31.183M share options outstanding and it would cost around 19.151M to exercise. The dfference between the exercise price and the TO price would need to be considered by the Purchaser as it's not small chips. Quite often at TO the parties come up with an overall number, which is then divided by the various instruments in place, as opposed to a price per share.
Anyway even putting 900M share cap into the mix does present some elephant numbers and I do enjoy looking at the NAV's put forward, so thanks.
Speaking of elephants good to see the latest press release and Mr Market it's becoming increasingly difficult to understand your view but thanks for the opportunity..........time will tell and value will out as they say !!
Jack
===
13:30
from lse
profith
17UP
original from advfn
Good find from Jon on ADVFN!
WZR presentation
The map on the presentation has the Shaiken Structure. It has the Jurassic as known with oil at 17-26 API.
But it also states The Triassic at 43 API !!!!
Looked at latest ops update and it only states that they have commenced drilling in the Triassic, so perhaps WZR have let the cat slip out of the bag! How much oil ?but at 43 API this will really help recovery rates and looks to best oil found in Kurdistan yet. If there's alot of it the wow.
I think the 5 billion resource figure is becoming rather real.
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/genera//files/companies/2._westernzagros__
===
This article is all about Indonesia (not Iraq/Kurdistan), but has definite parallels to the situation there, and so is well worth a read.....
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/oil-and-gas-firms-balk-at-plan-to-redraw-contracts/454431
To me, the final 3 paragraphs say it all, and illustrate why IMO there would be huge resistance from all 43 oil companies currently operating in Kurdistan to any attempt to make changes to their existing contracts....
Extract from the article about Indonesia:
< IPA’s Taylor said that no oil and gas contractors had agreed to renegotiate the contracts. “I don’t think everyone will agree to renegotiate the PSC [production sharing contract],” said Taylor.
Representatives from ExxonMobil, Chevron Pacific Indonesia and Total E&P Indonesie said on Thursday that they would not consider renegotiating. They also expressed concern that renegotiation could harm investment in Indonesia.
Meanwhile, Raden Priyono, chairman of BP Migas, said the government must honor contracts. “Because as soon as we do not honor contracts, we [Indonesia] will be disrespected by the world,” he said. >
--------------------------------
For 'Indonesia', try substituting 'Iraq/Kurdistan'!
IMHO, the Iraqi Oil & Gas Law will accept and recognise existing contracts, effectively 'drawing a line in the sand', while setting a clear framework for future contracts negotiated by both the ICG and KRG. That would seem by far the easiest way to move forward from the present situation.
GLA, scaramouche
====
01:25
GKP's Jewels
investor48
39UP
I think we all know what GKP's Jewels are!!We have all seen how Oil Juniors,Mid Size Oil Companies,etc been taken over,and the most recently,Petrohawk being bought over by BHP for 12.1Billion USD.
In most TO's, the best premiums paid by NOC's and MNC's,in addition to the targeted company's Oil and Gas assets ,are for the operations and control of these oil companies concessions!!
In the case of GKP,not only does it have a massive oil discovery in Shaikan,it is the major shareholder of Shaikan and most important, it is the operator for Shaikan!
In addition,GKP is also the operator for Sheikh-Adi and potentially, any NOC or MNC that acquire GKP, will be operating Shaikan and Sheikh-adi!!
On the same note,luckily for Genel,it has the operatorship in Ber Bahr which makes it an interesting target to be acquired.Genel are, only equity partners with DNO in Tawkye,Sinopec in Taq Taq and Heritage in Miran,but do not operate these fields.
Oil politics between the KRG and ICG have improved tremendously and no one can deny this.We have seen DNO been paid for their Feb and Mar exports totalling 100million USD therabouts and i am not sure we will be seeing DNO release a RNS each time,they are paid,as this would be a normal course of business,though the milestone first payment had to be made known publicly, after exports were halted in 2009 for non-payment.
Officially,it is already known that Kurdish exports now stands,at 175K barrels per day,this will increase to 200K barrels per day by year end and i can bet many, that GKP will be contributing to this increase.
GKP will soon be classified as a producer as well and the race against time for those PI's that have sold out,to be able to buy back GKP sub 140 and sub 150p will soon be running out,IMHO!!
We are into interesting weeks and for the doom mongers who have been around since GKP was sub 70p,will continue with their doom prophecies should excalibur continue with the frivolous suit!!I would expect GKP to countersue,should Excalibur waste GKP's management time,legal costs and PI's agony for a claim that if it was bonafide,this should have been filed 3years ago before the discovery of Shaikan!!Not only was it filed 3years later,they file the suit midway whilst GKP had already announced appraisal wells for Shaikan and already in the midst of drilling SH-2 and near completion of SH-3!!
Patience,patience and patience thats what all GKpians need.We are into interesting days and weeks now!!
Goodluck and best wishes to all and have a great weekend.
===
00:39
Excalibur V GKP
3Dimensional
13UP
The court hereby rules in favour of GKP that it has no case to answer against Excaliburs oppotunistic and frivolous claim, the court will except GKPs decision to counter sue Excalibur and their backers for the 30% discount that has been applied to its share price as a result of the claim against GKP in December.
Furthermore her honour would like to exert and apply a request made by the iii GKP BB, in that Rex Wimpy and his brother Eric are to be subjected to 24hrs alone with Zentenes1 as he recites the do's and dont's of investing (indirectly or otherwise) in GKP
In the event of Excalibur not fulfilling the Judges requests a further order upon the Wimpy defendants of having to endure a day on the Barclays BB with Zentenes1's alias Taz Devil will be implemented.
I have no further requests.
Send them down!
Roll on Tuesday
3D
===
00:12
Re: Justice Gloster....tobycups..
investor48
35UP
Excalibur will need to show where it got it's 2million sterling from, in case, there was a countersuit by GKP.
If the money trail points to a backer,the backer could be suit and whoever he or she is,there needs to have a bonafide reason for funding Excalibur!?
====
Fri 21:36
Re: GKP Website Article
scaramouche this user is in your favourites list
56UP
Hi CJ,
Thanks very much for the endorsement but, if I was to do the PR for GKP, I would be very surprised if it tuned into a long-term contract! 6 to 12 months at most, I reckon!
I agree with you that the IC article itself is nothing special and, if anything, about one month out-of-date....
Extract: "Two wells each flowed 10,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) and the company will SOON make its first oil exports." - Exports according to the Ben Lando report actually started more than one month ago.
But, if we hadn't been reading these boards lately, I don't think we would have come up with Sinopec as being in the frame. All the talk until the last week or two had been of KNOC.
The other point I would make is that this is the Second article recently that GKP has chosen to publish on their website, in effect endorsing the content. The first was Adnan Samarrai saying that he expected 15 billion OIP from Shaikan (5 billion reserves) - a figure that has now started to get discussed more freely. And this one specifically mentions Sinopec... and not KNOC.
I can't see TK allowing something to be published on the GKP website which had incorrect/misleading information. And I do rather wonder whether it is a new ploy to get people to appreciate the news that might be just around the corner... without him being able to release an RNS about it just yet.
Fascinating times!
GLA, scaramouche
===
Fri 21:38
Justice Gloster....tobycups..
MikeyAdmin
14UP
Nice find the bailii site
___________________
Shortly thereafter, on 21 December 2010, Excalibur made an application without notice to this court, seeking a worldwide freezing order against TKI and the Gulf Defendants. This was originally for an unlimited sum, but was then reduced to an amount of $ 510 million in aid of both the Commercial Court Proceedings and the Arbitration Proceedings. Excalibur was, however, only prepared to offer a cross-undertaking in damages secured in the sum of $ 2 million. I refused the relief sought, for the reasons set out in my ex tempore judgment of that date. These included the fact that I regarded the amount of the offered secured cross-undertaking as inadequate; that I was not satisfied that Excalibur had shown any risk of dissipation; and that after a delay of three years, the application should have been made on notice. I also formed the strong impression that the application was opportunistic, in the light of the recent press announcement referring to rumours of a possible sale of Gulf Keystone or Gulf International. It was also apparent that Excalibur had been advised that world-wide freezing order relief would not be granted if an application were to be made to the New York courts.
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Note:- This was originally for an unlimited sum, but was then reduced to an amount of $ 510 million in aid of both the Commercial Court Proceedings and the Arbitration Proceedings.
Note:- Excalibur was, however, only prepared to offer a cross-undertaking in damages secured in the sum of $ 2 million.
I refused the relief sought, for the reasons set out in my ex tempore judgment of that date
______________________________________________________
(IMHO, that means they are open to being pursued for Damages)
_________________________________________________________
Note:- These included the fact that I regarded the amount of the offered secured cross-undertaking as inadequate; that I was not satisfied that Excalibur had shown any risk of dissipation; and that after a delay of three years, the application should have been made on notice.
Note:- I also formed the strong impression that the application was opportunistic, in the light of the recent press announcement referring to rumours of a possible sale of Gulf Keystone or Gulf International.
------------------------------
The more I read Justic Glosters Ruling, the more I think Excalibur will disappear.
--------------------------------
On 28 January 2011, the Gulf Defendants issued an application for:
i) an order that Excalibur do serve its Particulars of Claim, or, alternatively, that the Gulf Defendants be permitted to file and serve a counterclaim prior to service of the Particulars of Claim; and
First, there is, on the evidence before me, a strong arguable case that the Gulf Defendants are not party either to the Collaboration Agreement or to the arbitration agreement contained within it. The grounds put forward by Excalibur to assert the contrary are not (at least at this stage) legally or evidentially convincing, although this is, of course, not an issue which I have to decide. It is relevant to note that at the without notice hearing before me, Excalibur 's skeleton conceded that "… the claimant may well not have good contractual claims against all of the Respondent/Defendants".
______________________________
IMHO, the above means it is all now between Excalibur and TKI
===
14:10
Re: The Calm before the Storm
MikeyAdmin
10UP
Very apt heading, and there are more,
Signs, Signals, somats happening, somats going on, so are the coming weeks going to be a rerating of the SP.
IMHO, the Share Price activity of the last 6 months, aided by World Events, high Shares on Loan and a Weighted Ask, used as threats to warn folks from buying, has all been about someone shaking folks from their holds and quietly accumulating shares at the PI's expense.
We are still seeing high Shares on Loan, which I hope reduced on Friday, and again maybe on Monday, but we are seeing some signs that the last 6 months is coming to an end.
The Overnight Weight left on the Ask has fallen from the high 700,000's over the last few weeks to 146,450.
Friday the 15th they stood at 167,400 --- 176,450, and I thought we where off.
http://screencast.com/t/XhKyPApE6uoP
Not to be, as the Greek debarcle took over last Monday, and they rose again to 167,400 --- 251,450, as someone saw another opportunity to continue.
http://screencast.com/t/ecOkwCoSP
Friday we saw them change again, this time with the Ask reducing by 105,000 to 155,400--146,450, and the Bid side falling by 12,000.
http://screencast.com/t/FOU2YqD9wt6
From those figures, it looks like someone is leaving it to the last minute, as while the Ask side weight has reduced, so has the Bid side weight, and by 12,000.
When looking for Signals or signs, I believe the Bid and Ask weight are the first we have, showing up at 18.15pm each evening, long before we get the Shares on Loan Data at 12am the next day.
If as I hope, the SOD’s have reduced on Friday, and we get a further change in the Bid Ask weight ratio, then we get a further reduction on Monday in the SOD’s, we may be away.
I don’t know what anyone else thinks, but at the moment, it’s all pointing to the 26th June, so if correct, I hope that the signs point to Excalibur & Associates withdrawing.
Or maybe we are due a Ops update.
Whatever, the Signals or Signs point to this week being one heck of a week, so load up for the trip, and lets get the next stage of voyage underway .
Mikey.
=====
18:04
BIRs + Deeper drill targets
zengas
47UP
We know that both Shaikan 2 and Sheikh-Adi OVER 5 WEEKS AGO were near to entering unknown territory in the deeper triassic and permian.
The IMPORTANCE of these two wells should not be underestimated for potential further OIP which in effect would alter the upside value of the 'Back in Rights' if success emanates from either of the deeper zones (as well as GKPs overall value). This is why imo i beleive the BIRs issue may have been delayed until evaluated by the KRG and valued accordingly. If you gave the BIRs away and then barely a few weeks later, you suddendly find you have given away perhaps 30% OIP too cheaply it could make an energy minister look very incompetent indeed.
This is GKPs summary when Shaikan 1 was STOPPED in its tracks. Apply the potential to this important phase of both Sheik-Adi 1 and Shaikan 2 wells.
"Each phase of drilling has resulted in significant discoveries, and any one of the several target layers of the Jurassic or Triassic intervals contain, by any measure, outstanding volumes of oil-in-place".
"The final TD of 2950 meters was determined by the fact that Gulf Keystone encountered a zone of **VERY ACTIVE OIL AND GAS INFLOW IMMERDIATELY BELOW A SEALING LAYER AT 2940m**" - So then, what potential oil and gas is sealed below 2940m ???
"THE HIGH PRESSURE OIL AND GAS ENCOUNTERED AT TD PROVIDE AN EXCELLENT APPRAISAL TARGET AND GIVE STRONG GROUNDS THAT THE PERMIAN BELOW THE TRIASSIC SHOULD BE SUBJECT TO EARLY EXPLORATION".
Needless to say further OIP at these levels in both Shaikan and Sheik-Adi has huge implications for future GKP value. Both Shaikan 1 and 3 as well as Sheik-Adi have already found oil already in multiple Jurassic and 2 Triassic layers. On the basis of the oil/gas inflow from deeper triassic/permian levels, this could be a major prize for both wells and have impliactions for connectivity between Shaikan and Shei-Adi as a whole.
"Overall, the Shaikan-1 well has discovered over 1000 meters of oil column and over 200 meters of net pay. Thus far Gulf Keystone has tested less than 30% of this net pay. This 30% of net pay demonstrated the capability for 31,000 boe per day of aggregate production (7,000 bopd from the Jurassic and 24,000 boe per day from the Triassic)".
===
19:20
Re: BIRs + Deeper drill targets
scaramouche this user is in your favourites list
28UP
Hi Zengas,
From the 14 April 2011 RNS, which contained a huge increase in the OIP figures for Shaikan, this paragraph appears also to relate to your post...
"The Shaikan-2 appraisal well is now drilling deeper into the Jurassic and is scheduled to drill on into the Triassic. Once the well reaches TD at the bottom of the Triassic or into the top of the Permian interval, the Company will consider a possible further revision of the Shaikan oil-in-place volumes, taking into account additional information from the reservoirs previously only penetrated by Shaikan-1 and from potential additional discoveries from possible zones below those reached by Shaikan-1, projected by DGA to contain an ADDITIONAL 1 to 5 BILLION barrels of prospective RESOURCES."
This was the ONLY part of that RNS which referred to RESOURCES - all the rest referred to OIP volumes, which ranged from 4.9 billion to 15 billion.
Hmmm... just imagine what sort of OIP and RESOURCES volumes we will be looking at if we have the 'Full to spill' scenario already quantified... PLUS 'full to spill' for those zones BELOW those reached by Shaikan-1.
My hunch is that Mammoths are no longer extinct, and I really can't wait for that 'world-class super-giant' RNS!
GLA, scaramouche
==
Author Dalesmann View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted Friday 01:40
Subject Starlight Express
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 99 times.
Message
This is a long post!
Firstly I need to copy a post from Advfn which triggered my response. This post is food for thought in itself. It tells a story that must have been mirrored thousands of times. I would ask that you at least stick with this introductory post for it graphically illustrates what is happening and has happened to many GKP investors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
mhin2 - 21 Jul'11 - 23:23 - 98197 of 98208
Dont know what the problem is with GKP. My feel is that the SP is being held back on pretext of awaiting news (court case, oil contracts, clarity of deal with KRG)while somebody (bodies) is/are accummulating...I have reduced my holding from 88,000 in early days to 40,000 three months ago to 10,000 now. That money (profit) went into other stocks that have fallen by much more than GKP in the very turbulent and downward aim markets from Feb...I would have been much better off staying in GKP. Nevertheless, I think we are in the end game, and there will be a clearout to accummulate shares in the near future (dont think the recent drop to £1.30 was it, although I am quite happy to buy some at that price). Further seems to me also that China, India etc have not yet, but might be about to start buying over companies to ensure resource supply (and this is not for exports, but to meet rising domestic demand- hence why commentators do not see a fall in resource prices despite a recognition of western declining demand). China and India account for 37% of all humans on the planet...the next most populous countries are the USA and Indonesia with 4.5% and 3.4% of world population. Demand is going to grow and peak oil has been achieved...work it out
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Good evening mhin
I think that there is more than a grain of truth in your post and there may indeed be bigger forces at work. Whatever the answer is to that little riddle there is one unavoidable conclusion. GRH has posted that when we actually come to a TO situation, there will be very few PIs still in the game. That conclusion is likely to become true and your post aptly demonstrates why.
Many punters will have left through a mixture of boredom, or a belief that the grass appears to be greener in other shares, or for those who have not done their own research, through fear! Your own actions in reducing your holding graphically demonstrate this process in action and I commend your honesty in laying out your GKP story. I'm sure you are not alone.
You say that we may well be in the end game. I agree and there may be a limited time left to get back onboard the GKP Express.
LOL – so far it has felt more like a slow old wheezing(Breathing with a rasp or whistling sound. It results from constriction or obstruction of the throat, pharynx, trachea or bronchi. )+ stopping train on a forgotten rural branch line rather than an Express but that, IMHO, is about to change !
Suddenly there appears to be a growing pragmatism in pronouncements coming out of Iraq central. The importance of Kurdistan oil providing an immediate revenue stream to a cash strapped Iraqi government appears to be opening doors to the majors who have so far shunned the KRG due to fear of loosing lucrative service contracts in the south.
A sea change has occurred with these contracts, there have been calls to re-negotiate them as the Majors realise that the infrastructure that they were taking over was, in reality, totally clapped out and the time needed to bring these fields into production was going to take considerably longer and involve considerably more expenditure than they first expected, delaying their profits and adding little to their immediate balance sheets.
The inability to deliver planned production has led to Iraq having to reduce their production targets and therefore reduce the expected revenue which was always inflated. Perhaps this is down to Mr Sharistani’s lack of experience in the oil business
Under these political constraints and with the 'Arab Spring' adding a certain momentum to the political process, the KRG PSC contracts suddenly begin to look attractive as the risks are not attributable to the Oil Ministry. The associated costs and expenditure involved in drilling exploration wells is firmly on the shoulders of the exploration company who have to finance the risks up to the point where a field development plan has been drawn up and production actually starts. Up to this point all costs and associated risks have to be found from their own resources.
It is interesting that the field development plan at Shaikan has been pre-empted by the KRG asking GKP to begin production right away, before the development plan has been submitted. Such is the urgency to get the oil to market.
The KRG model has clearly demonstrated the efficiency of the PSC model. Multiple drills are taking place as 42 companies explore Kurdistan - probably the very last on-land oil province with ‘elephant fields’ left on the planet. Three companies including GKP have already shown that they can quickly bring that oil to market.
Returning to our company, the success of GKP in proving up its acreage is commendable. However the KRG is IMHO now looking way beyond our little company. They need the oil extracted and quickly, and to be frank, GKP is just not up to the job!
I'm sure that Mr Harami and Todd both know this and both have the same common objective - to get a Major to take over Shaikan.
The KRG through its own actions has demonstrated the need for a major oil player with access to enough rigs and associated equipment to get the job done quickly; this major having enough funds to expedite and develop the field without delay in order to get Kurdistan petro dollars flowing into Iraqi coffers as soon as possible. This is why the endgame is upon us.
So we arrive at this moment in time currently defined by Maliki visiting China, a country with trillions of dollars at its disposal and a country looking for security of supply. Mihn2, you have very cogently explained in your post what factors are motivating countries like India, China and Korea. What a coincidence that the visit is taking place right now.
Recently we heard a rumour that KNOC may well have competition for the backin rights and Sinopec has been mentioned in this context. Why stop at the backin rights given the need to gain access to much needed oil reserves?
One thing that China has been able to demonstrate is their ability to develop infrastructure. Their activities highlighted by posts on 3i today in building a 500km railways and port facilities in Australia to extract iron ore is a testament to their ability to conceive and then enact large infrastructure projects. This is exactly what Iraq wants and needs and it is this that drives Maliki to China.
Into this bigger picture is thrown little GKP. The job is all but done at Shaikan and I get the feeling that the baton is about to be passed to a bigger player.
That player may not be from the Far East.
Faced with the prospect that Shaikan, a super giant, field, may fall to the Chinese, Majors like Exxon, Shell or Conoco may well feel the need to act and act now. They too need the oil as their reserves are declining and with them their future bottom line profits. These Super Majors have to run to stay still. They need the billions of OIP offered by Shaikan in order to balance their already under threat balance sheets.
I have mentioned before the concept of a tipping point approaching. It may well be already upon us and the politics that have so far held up takeovers in Kurdistan will become a secondary concern as the needs of Iraq, NOCs and IOCs all converge. Shaikan may well be the catalyst needed to take Iraqi reconstruction one station stop further along the lengthy reconstruction line.
So when you say that we are in the end game - I am inclined to agree.
The GKP Starlight Express is now leaving the penultimate station - you will need your tickets to board and enjoy the remainder of the ride.
Kind regards
Dalesman
===
Mon 23:08
Suite 808...
scaramouche
31UP
Good evening everyone,
With Excalibur back on the agenda for tomorrow, I thought I would do a bit more delving and came across something I found a bit unusual....
Excalibur Ventures’ Delaware address is shown here:
http://www.allbusiness.com/companyprofile/Excalibur_Ventures_Llc/89D272C3B93DDF1856C270B43365EC7C-1.html
Excalibur Ventures Llc
1220 N Market St Ste 808
Wilmington, Delaware 19801-2595
Trend Analytics, another of Rex’s companies is also located there:
http://www.manta.com/c/mtm10m1/trend-analytics-llc
Trend Analytics LLC
1220 N Market Street # 808
Wilmington, DE 19801-2595
And a third company, Northern Research LLC, also run by Rex Wempen, shares the same address:
http://www.manta.com/c/mtczyrb/northern-research-llc
Northern Research, LLC
1220 N Market Street # 808
Wilmington, DE 19801-2595
Nothing too surprising in that, I suppose, as Rex & Eric could operate any number of separate companies from the same address.
But if you reverse the search on Google, i.e. looking for ‘1220 N Market Street Delaware SUITE 808’, you get literally HUNDREDS of companies who operate out of there.
In other words, far from being a typical office location, it is in effect little more than a P.O Box number.
There is perhaps the added perk of the person 'renting' it being able to book a slot to meet clients for perhaps an hour or two, whenever the need arises, in seemingly pleasant office surroundings, and with someone else probably forwarding on the correspondence for all the many hundreds of tenants of ‘Suite 808’. But it is really just an illusion!
Of course this kind of ‘timeshare’ arrangement may be quite popular in the USA, but I can’t help thinking it is also an easy means for a less-than-substantial firm to ‘project an image’ of being something rather more important than it is... when in fact it has nothing but an off-the-shelf company name, a website and a kind of PO box number.
And isn’t ‘projecting an image’ precisely what, in their claim against GKP, Rex and Eric could be seen as trying to do?
I would be very surprised if Justice Teare was unable to see through this rather thin disguise!
GLA, scaramouche
===
Author chopper89x View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted Monday 20:48
Subject Re: Kurdistans ever growing radar .... View parent message
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 46 times.
Message
brilliant big of digging Mr a < the bit I really like is the new distinguishment between service contracts and the Psc's that clearly shows that the pscs are for undiscovered fields and TSC's are for developing existing fields, for those that remember one of my early posts the one clause in the iraqi constitution that gives the krg the legal right to sign its own Psc's was because the constitution gave no mention of who has the legal right to sign contracts on undiscovered fields, e.g those that were not found before the 2005 constitution
the post is atached below.
The past 6 months has been one of great progress with regards to the dispute between the ICG and the KRG on the issue of psc's.
There have been many comments into why people think these contracts will be honoured but there have also been those that suggust this will not happen and our contract will be restricted, void or ammended further.
It is evident that the blockade is Sharistanni and to some extent Hawrami, Sharistanni is fighting for better control of the whole countries oil resources and contracting abilities, You cannot slate him for doing so because what he is actually fighting for is to some extent in the best interest of his country i.e. not giving away too much to foriegn firms , on the flipside it can also be argued that his absurdly strict tsc terms actually demotivate firms to maximise output as the returns are so low, whereas because of Hawrami's taking of the Psc approach has allowed the Kurdish region to benefit from massive FDI inflows and some commentary stating the erbil is starting to look like an early dubai, along with less need to import foriegn energy and benefit from realiable electricity supply. this has been achieved by giving a slightly more generous return to investors Ok personal interest has to some extent been his motivtion has i dont doubt that some ofthe KRG officals hold securities in DNO ,GKP etc etc and therefore have made good financial rewards but it has also benefited its people.
So in the past 6 months the new Oil minister in Iraq and Pm maliki have given great promises to the kurds and one of them being recognition of their Oil contracts and a central payment system has been implemented - whether costs are paid by bagdad or the krg is irrelevant they will be paid.
Sharistani still disputes this which he made clear the day Pm maliki stated that he had honoured the Psc's - gkp shot to £2.02 2 hours later sharistanni states maliki was wrong and we were back at £1.78.
However legal opinion by who else but clifford chance have stated that the Psc's are legally binding , but do we understood why?
the below article will aim to explain why, but in summary it stems from the distinction between "current fields and "future fields" future fields being ones that were not producing pre 2005 and thererfore do not fall under the central goverments right to control
the single most important paragraph from the iraqi 2005 constitution is this
"In examining the language of the Constitution, a clear distinction is made between 'present fields' (which are to be jointly managed between the federal government and the semi-autonomous regions) and 'future fields' (for which the authority to manage is omitted from the constitution). Based upon the federalist notions within the same Constitution, if the power is not specifically reserved for the federal government, then the authorised semi-autonomous regions may exercise jurisdiction. Petroleum activities are not among the list of powers reserved exclusively to the federal government of Iraq under the Constitution and may therefore be governed by the KRG."
please remember it and think about it and that is why the pscs will be honoured.
there are also various debates as to the knock on effect if the krg were to void the contracts such as huge flights of capital away from the region and an increase in credit risk for the whole of iraq,
furthermore I dont see the recent roadshows in london and turkey for promoting oil investment in the KRG as a sign of goverment about to do a venezuela on us do you ?
hope that gives you some confidence
Regards
seeing this in black and white for the kurdistan and IRAQ oil and gas conference is a big signal to say the pscs are blo@dy fine
===
07:52
The Case for the Defence
GKP.L
42UP
Today’s court hearing is obviously of huge interest to us all as IMHO Excalibur have by their actions managed to suppress the SP by about 10-20% for the last 7 months. Here are some points which I consider will be relevant in the case for the defence.....
1) Excalibur Ventures raised their claim against Texas Keystone and the Gulf Companies more than 3 years after GKP entered Kurdistan, and 16 months after GKP struck oil at Shaikan – that is surely the action of a ‘chancer’, not someone who is determined to stake a legitimate claim at the earliest available opportunity.
2) Excalibur was not accepted by the KRG as suitable for inclusion as a party to any of GKP’s licences, and has contributed NOTHING to GKP’s $500 million costs. Yet it saw fit to claim up to 30% of the assets of what has become a £1.1 billion business, and one indeed which was actually worth around £1.4 billion when Excalibur embarked on their legal claim - a reduction of £300 million in market cap which will not have endeared((To make beloved or very sympathetic: a couple whose kindness endeared them to friends.)) them to GKP’s lawyers!
3) Excalibur has been called ‘chancers’ in open court, and Mrs Justice Gloster’s original report from the case in April 2011 offers a number of clear hints as to her view of the opportunistic nature of their action. Those hints will undoubtedly be noted by Justice Teare under the principle of ‘Obiter Dicta’ should the court action progress.
4) There was nothing in Mrs Justice Gloster’s report that suggested she had seen any documentary evidence to support the Excalibur claim against the Gulf Companies, and even Excalibur’s lawyer’s admitted the weakness of their case against the Gulf Defendants.
5) Excalibur Ventures FAILED in their attempts to have the case heard in NY. Costs were awarded against Excalibur, approximately £500,000 of which are payable to GKP (£250,000 paid so far) and no doubt a similar amount due to Clifford Chance.
6) Excalibur Ventures was ``... a very small enterprise, the success of which rests with the energy, commitment and innovation of Rex Wempen, together with the support and expertise of his brother Eric Wempen.'' According to Mrs Justice Gloster’s report, it had also failed to file any accounts - not the mark of a substantial and reputable business. There is nothing to suggest that any of Rex’s other miscellaneous ventures were substantive.
7) Excalibur has been confirmed as not financing themselves but having an as yet UNNAMED third party backing them, a third party whose motives we do not know but can make some educated guesses about. If, between them, they do manage to continue the case into 2012, the motives of that backer will undoubtedly come into question, and it might leave both them and Excalibur open to a counter-suit from GKP for VEXATIOUS litigation.
8) The organisation through which Rex allegedly introduced TK to important Kurdish contacts was apparently not a recognised body and had no legal framework to work in Iraq. http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=10353
Perhaps those who take the view that the claim clearly has a significant degree of merit would like to offer some of their reasons why they think so, rather than simply seek to muddy the water and unnerve uncertain PIs.
It certainly seems odd behavour if they CLAIM to be holding a significant number of shares! LOL
GLA, scaramouche
=====
08:52
Re: Dont get too excited today
bonobo77
32UP
09:17
Re: Dont get too excited today
bonobo77
12UP
In other words ...
Scenario A: Excalibur are blind optimists with a 'genuine' grievance'.
Resolution: Unless they produce something concrete, they'll be kicked out of court either today or in 2012. Alternatively they'll be threatened with a counter-suit and will back down sheepishly. Or GKP might just pay them chicken feed to go away.
===================================
Scenario B: Excalibur's backer wants to suppress SP and build a large stake in advance of t/o.
Resolution: With so much news due, the suppression will likely end very soon (Excalibur back down).
=================================
Scenario C: Excalibur's backer is a potential acquiring party seeking to depress the average SP and deter other suitors.
Resolution: The backer will still seek to acquire GKP/Shaikan, and any low ball offer can be easily gazumped. Once the first offer is on the table, a bidding war is highly likely.
=================================
Scenario D: Excalibur is a smokescreen/poison pill to deter early low-ball bids.
Resolution: Now is the time to make the case evaporate and release the pent-up news. Bidding auction to quickly follow.
================================
When you read through Scaramouche’s post summarising the state of play in the Excalibur case, then two things seem clear on current evidence:
(1) Excalibur appear to have NO claim against the Gulf defendants.
(2) The judge’s use of ‘vexatious’, ‘chancers’ and the legal powers surrounding ‘obiter dicta’(( Law. An opinion voiced by a judge that has only incidental bearing on the case in question and is therefore not binding. Also called dictum.
An incidental remark or observation; a passing comment.)) are an extremely direct warning from the judge to Excalibur that’s it’s time to ‘put up or shut up’.
Now, if this case is motivated by a genuine grievance on Excalibur’s part that they somehow have entitlement to 30% of GKP, then surely, by now, they would have produced something concrete upon which to build their case.
But they haven’t.
And that is why our attentions have turned to the other possible motivations behind them bringing GKP – a £1bn company - before the judiciary.
Some people have suggested that Excalibur is being pushed into bringing this case by a wealthy backer(s) seeking to suppress the SP and facilitate the acquisition of a large shareholding.
Perhaps this backer is a potential acquisitor attempting to keep other suitors at bay and minimise the average share price in the months preceding a takeover offer. In this circumstance, I’d expect the case to stay ‘live’ until after GKP is bought out. The new acquirer will have the funds and the legal nous((Philosophy.
Reason and knowledge as opposed to sense perception.
The rational part of the individual human soul.)) to make Excalibur disappear very quickly.
Others have posited that the Excalibur case is a smokescreen – one that might even have tacit blessing from GKP (allegedly!) - to suppress interest from acquiring parties and block early bids before the real news on OIP, OWC, seismics etc. kicks in. Very dangerous territory, IMHO.
Which brings us to today …
Given the detailed comments from the judge and all the salient points detailed in Scara’s post, I find it hard to conceive that Excalibur would continue with their wild golden goose chase … unless they are blind optimists with fingers wedged in their ears who genuinely believe they have a case. Or unless they are being backed by a potential suitor who knows that their claim can be put to bed post-acquisition.
If it has all been a 'ruse' to suppress the SP and block low-ball early offers, then surely the curtain will need to be swished back at some point soon to allow all the 'pent up' news to flow (and to add proper and sustainable value with each RNS). The bidding auction can then commence. And anyone seeking to quietly build a large stake in advance of game-changing news has had plenty time to fill their boots. Both sets of circumstance would dictate that the 'suppression' should end very soon.
So even if today does not end this courtroom charade – and I don’t think it will - I suspect it will be brought to a swift resolution well in advance of any notional court date set for 2012.
In fact, we should not be focused on today providing any such resolution.
But we should absolutely be focused on the issue of who is backing Excalibur, and their motivations. I would love the judge, or GKPs team, to demand clarity on this issue.
Because surely an expensive continuation of this 'doomed' suit can only serve a party/parties seeking to accumulate or acquire. And if we knew their indentity(ies), then we may have a bigger clue as to the destiny of Shaikan and our collective shareholdings.
====
Re: Dont get too excited (Hub)
bonobo77
13UP
I fear you might be missing the point.
This is not about what SP value is lost/gained by the case being live/dead.
What's 40-60p in the grand scheme?
It is very much about the MOTIVATIONS behind the case.
And it's about the VALUE in the ground.
The former is being used as a very powerful distractor from the latter.
===
09:02
Re: Dont get too excited today
investor48
23UP
Sacramouche's post is crystal clear and as i have said all along,the suit against GKP is a frivolous one!!
Any material contractual agreement between GKP and Excalibur,the board of directors of GKP have a fiduciary duty to disclose it to all shareholders!!
What Excalibur can ever claim will be verbal agreements and it's between your word against mine,there words against mine,etc,etc and no courts will want to entertain that and wasting court's time,GKP's management time,agony and stressed of GKP's PI's,etc etc!!
Now GKP is fending off( To ward off. Often used with off: fend off an attack.
Archaic. To defend.)this suit,and we have to attack at some point and no point defending if we want to incur maximum collateral damage on Excalibur!!Hence a countersuit!
Goodluck and best wishes to all
====
Dont get too excited today
grimbeaver
28UP
Excalibur could pull out of this any time they wanted to. If they are going to a hearing today there will be more fee's barristers attending etc and costs.
IMO they would have pulled out before this to save on costs rather than taking all these people to court and then backing down.
I think a date will be set today, its all about nerve and costs at the moment
===
Iraqi-American Chamber of Commerce have no (legal framework) to work in Iraq
Iraqi-American Chamber of Commerce have no (legal framework) to work in Iraq
Translated by IRAQdirectory.com - [9/12/2009]
Adviser to Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, Fadhl Mohammad Jawad, said that the Iraqi-American Chamber of Commerce and Industry is not recognized within the non-governmental organizations and it does not have a "legal framework" to work in Iraq. He said that the Secretariat of the Cabinet "had directed all ministries and government institutions not to deal with the Iraqi-American Chamber of Commerce and Industry because it does not have a legal framework for working in Iraq."
He added that "the registration of non-governmental organizations is done in accordance with conditions, and this organization did not meet the required conditions," noting that "many people think that this organization is recognized internationally and locally as a result of its name, but the fact is quite the contrary; it is only a group of people." Jawad pointed out that "this organization has undertaken many activities in Iraq and held numerous seminars and conferences, but it remains without legal validity and can not be dealt with. " The Secretariat of the Cabinet, issued earlier, a circular to ministries and state institutions urging them not to deal with that organization. The circular said "after the decision to cancel registration of the Iraqi-American Chamber of Commerce and Industry of non-governmental organizations and the loss of its legal existence in Iraq, it has been decided to direct all ministries and government departments not to deal with that organization."
===
The father of massacre suspect Anders Behring Breivik said his son should have killed himself instead of allegedly going on the killing rampage that left 76 people dead....
===
Breivik is 'insane' says his lawyer
Source country drogheda-independent Tuesday, July 26, 2011 1:27:00 PM CEST | info More about this article...
Massacre gunman Anders Breivik is insane and appears to have no idea of the worldwide revulsion(( A sudden strong change or reaction in feeling, especially a feeling of violent disgust or loathing.
A withdrawing or turning away from something.
Medicine. Counterirritation used to reduce inflammation or increase the blood supply to the affected area.)) at his acts, his lawyer has said....
==
Breivik is 'insane' says his lawyer
Source country drogheda-independent Tuesday, July 26, 2011 1:27:00 PM CEST | info More about this article...
Massacre gunman Anders Breivik is insane and appears to have no idea of the worldwide revulsion at his acts, his lawyer has said....
==
bobobob5 - 26 Jul'11 - 13:20 - 98854 of 98856
Excalibur's mouthpiece told the judge that, for pragmatic reasons, they now don't seek arbitration in New York and will deal with all claims against all defendants in this court. "Our rationale is pragmatic". They maintain their contractual and non-contractual claims. The judge said that 4 weeks was too short for the trial and 8 weeks too long, so he ruled on 6 weeks. Disclosure by 16 December 2011. Written statements by 16 March 2012. Experts' reports on New York law (for Excalibur) and on Kurdistan law (for GKP) by 27 April 2012, with a meeting of experts on 8 June 2012 (these dates were the subject of discussion with the judge, I believe the dates I have given are what he said). The trial is provisionally set for 15 September 2012 (again, there was discussion over this, October was originally suggested, 5 September was also suggested). Pre-trial review mid-July 2012 to confirm that all the necessary things have been done.
(My family have just this morning bought some more GKPs if that is of any interest to anyone)
but imho DYOR etc as always this is not legal advice I am not qualified to give it
===
13:01
Re: Oilman63
wktfuture
51UP
Hi, I just got back to my desk after attending the hearing. As I mentioned yesterday in my post I did not expect this to conclude today, and that it will be a case of "Is there a contract?"
The interesting thing from the hearing was that E's lawyer took a decision not to follow through with the application for arbitration. This was for "pragmatic" reasons and influenced from some recently received evidence in the defence.
There are contractual and non-contractual issues. The solicitor for E explained that 2 expert opinions were required, one for a point of Kurdish law that the defendant is hinging part of their defense. The other for the contract/collaboration which was created under New York law, therefore must be interpreted - in the english court - and judged according to that intention.
The judge opinioned that there was no reason why this expert assessment could take place now, but gave a timeslot for next July none-the-less.
There was a great sense of playing for time and no parties being particularly worried about it. The fact that there was recently supplied evidence in defense that caused a slight change in position, is more encouraging than there being new evidence in claim and the defendant changing their approach.
I suspect that eventually they will back down from the whole claim in the same way that they backed down from arbitration. As I pointed out yesterday, a large oil corporation could easily swallow up the litigation as they will have their in-house team on it, and the costs will be relatively negligable. Big companies like BP are sued about once a week aparently, afterall !
====
Author Divewally View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted today 13:15
Subject Re: Patience patience patience View parent message
Opinion HOLD
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 9 times.
Message
A lot of dispirited investors will I would presume now continue to reconsider their positions and equally their shares will be readily welcomed to add to those already accumulated by the more longer term holders amongst us. Those who are quite happy to wait patiently still and who are not unduly perturbed can look forward to the unfolding of the "GKP story". Yes without doubt an intriguing roller coaster if ever there was one for an AIM listed stock! Whatever conspiracy theory you subscribe to, or view you personally take, it must be agreed that this influencing claim in effect must act as a great vehicle to both suppress the SP and make any TO suitor consider it's merits (if any?) and sadly cast a continuing shadow. Those behind the scenes (backers) who have their own agendas must be looking towards a gain in whatever shape that takes.
Pockets are usually deeper when there are greater rewards to be won. These can take different forms of course and an open mind is always refreshing! Those merits must be assessed and all is not doom and gloom as some portend.(To serve as an omen or a warning of; presage: black clouds that portend a storm.)
In the longer term the drill bits keep turning and evaluations of exiting finds continues apace (and perhaps fresh?) reaffirming why we made our initial decisions to choose this stock. Side shows apart it is the fundamentals of what a company such as GKP can offer, but also it is sad to say those uncertainties we should all be too aware of. The passage of time (albeit longer than we would wish for) is trying yes, but the resolute steadfast investor it has been shown many times (and reading on such BB's as this) has made sound reasons to opt for their original decision to invest. Following through is a question of whether you feel the reasons you originally chose to invest have manifestly changed. GKP can only be judged by their record to date (and its market valuation certainly does reflect it when measured by the longer passage of time) as well as it's ongoing schedule - this is to be noted and remembered on any decision an investor might now take however.
Those who wish to be negative have a quick and easy option and they should take it (if they have not already done so?) rather than wasting their own or others time here! We are all aware they too have agendas?
It is true external factors are becoming more influential with the passing of time and in recent weeks, there have been signs that on the political front at least a willingness for resolutions and optimisms toward progress are more forthcoming, that is evident.
Remember that share values/investing apart... time is the most precious thing we can possess, stick with whatever decision you choose to make or have made...whether you made the right decision only the future can tell...but above all enjoy your time wisely. It's a rich man/woman that enjoys his/her life not wishing that time away.
===
15:50 : Jul26th/ 2011
Gulf Keystone updates on Excalibur litig...
SpikeyDT this user is in your favourites list
14UP
Gulf Keystone updates on Excalibur litigation; London trial planned for October 2012 -
http://t.co/VFTsgLM
Gulf Keystone updates on Excalibur litigation; London trial planned for October 2012
3:39 pm by Jamie Ashcroft
A trial has provisionally been scheduled for October 2012 in the English Commercial Court of Excalibur's claims.
Gulf Keystone (LON:GKP) this afternoon gave investors an update on its legal battle with Excalibur Ventures LLC.
It said that Excalibur will no longer pursue its claim in the International Chamber of Commerce Arbitration in New York.
Excalibur is, however, content that all its claims against Gulf Keystone, and its two subsidiaries, should be determined in the English Commercial Court in London.
The trial has provisionally been scheduled for October 2012 in the English Commercial Court.
“The (Gulf Keystone) companies continue vigorously to dispute and contest the allegations and claims asserted by Excalibur,” the company said in a stock exchange statement.
An injunction was awarded in April preventing Excalibur from pursuing its arbitration proceedings in the International Chamber of Commerce until a final determination on its claim has been made in the English Commercial Court.
Then last month on June 28, Gulf Keystone revealed that it had been awarded costs in the latest phase of their protracted legal battle with Excalibur Ventures, which is claiming up to 30 per cent of the company’s blocks in Kurdistan.
A £250,000 payment was received by Gulf Keystone on July 12.
Gulf Keystone, which operates in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq, has some of the world’s most exciting oil targets. Its flagship Shaikan is deemed to contain anywhere between 5 and 15 billion barrels of oil, and this is just one of its prospects.
The company is in the middle of a high-impact drilling campaign that could utterly transform its fortunes and those of the entire region.
====
WesternZagros Amends Production Sharing Contract in Kurdistan
Posted on 03 August 2011. Tags: Kalar-Bawanoor, Kurdistan, WesternZagros
WesternZagros Amends Production Sharing Contract in Kurdistan
WesternZagros Resources has announced that it has finalized an agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq (“KRG”) and Talisman (Block K44) B.V. (“Talisman”) to amend the original Production Sharing Contract (“Original PSC”) that governed the Company’s exploration activities in the Kalar-Bawanoor Block in Kurdistan. The agreement divides the contract area of the Original PSC into two contract areas named Garmian and Kurdamir (refer to Figure 1) and each will be operated under a distinct PSC.
WesternZagros will continue to operate the southern contract area named the Garmian Block that covers approximately 1,780 square kilometres and is now governed under the new Garmian PSC. The Garmian Block contains the Sarqala-1 oil discovery, the Mil Qasim-1 prospect, and the other numerous prospects that contributed to a large increase in prospective resources reported by the Company on July 20, 2011.
The northern contract area is named the Kurdamir Block. It covers some 340 square kilometres and contains the Kurdamir-1 oil, gas and condensate discovery and is now governed under an amended version of the Original PSC (the “Kurdamir PSC”). The northern area is now operated by Talisman. WesternZagros’s production sharing terms, under both the Garmian and Kurdamir PSCs, remain unchanged from the Original PSC.
To view the Figure 1 map, please visit the following link: http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/802wzr_fig1.pdf
The agreement amends the work obligations and timeline for the first exploration period of the Original PSC.
On the Garmian Block, WesternZagros’s remaining work commitment will be fulfilled by drilling the Mil Qasim-1 exploration well by December 31, 2011. The drilling rig for the Mil Qasim-1 well is on location with the spud date anticipated for mid August. Mil Qasim-1 will be drilled to test the oil potential of the Upper Fars Formation at a location three kilometres away from where that same formation displayed shows of high pressure light oil when penetrated by the Company’s Sarqala-1 well. WesternZagros’s 40% working interest and the KRG’s 20% carried interest remain unchanged in the Garmian Block. The remaining 40% working interest will be assigned to a Third Party Participant (“TPP”) by the KRG in due course.
On the Kurdamir Block, the remaining work commitment will be fulfilled by the drilling of the Kurdamir-2 well by June 30, 2012. Talisman is in the process of securing a drilling rig for the Kurdamir-2 well, with an anticipated spud date within the fourth quarter of 2011. The well will be drilled to evaluate the Oligocene, Eocene and Cretaceous reservoirs at a location two kilometres away from where the Company observed numerous oil shows and tested oil, gas and condensate in Kurdamir-1 well. The working interests in the Kurdamir Block remain unchanged. As operator of the Kurdamir Block, Talisman will draw on the experience from both the Kurdamir-1 well and the Topkhana-1 well, which Talisman is currently drilling on their adjacent K-39 Block.
“We are pleased that we have reached a win-win solution that meets the objectives of the government and each of the contractor parties,” said Simon Hatfield, WesternZagros’s Chief Executive Officer (pictured). “These amended PSCs give us the additional time needed to drill our next wells and to enable us to incorporate the information gained from our recent discoveries in order to maximize our potential for future exploration success. We are excited by the opportunities we see in both Garmian and Kurdamir Blocks.”
On the Garmian Block WesternZagros is preparing to carry out an extended well test in the Jeribe Formation at the Sarqala-1 light oil discovery concurrently with the drilling of the Mil Qasim-1 well. WesternZagros has identified numerous other prospects and plays on the Garmian Block, including Baran, Qulijan, Bawanoor, the Upper Fars Fault Trap Play and the Zardi Complex, all of which offer considerable further exploration potential.
For the Kurdamir-2 well the necessary long lead items, including casing and well head equipment, have been procured and a 2000 horse power rig is being contracted for the drilling operations.
===
(MENAFN - ProactiveInvestors - UK) Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP) shares shot up almost 20 per cent today, recovering some of the ground lost in last week's market-wide sell off, after it told investors that its Sheik Adi project in Kurdistan could potentially be a 'world class' oil discovery.
This afternoon it unveiled a new independent assessment that puts the size of the Sheik Adi oilfield between 1 and 3 billion barrels of oil.
Combined with the company's more explored Shaikan oilfield, and the Akri-Bijeel discovery, the group's assets are now estimated to contain almost 12 billion barrels of oil ��" on a 'mid-case' P50 estimate.
"This report reinforces our belief in having encountered yet another potential world class oil source," said chief operating officer John Gerstenlauer.
"We plan to further evaluate the Sheikh Adi structure and define and assess this complicated geological structure. The Sheikh Adi oil-in-place numbers are all the more significant due to our 80 percent interest in the block."
Today's independent preliminary evaluation of the Sheikh Adi resources was carried out by Dynamic Global Advisors (DGA). It was based on wireline logging data from the Sheikh Adi-1 well, core samples, 2D and 3D seismic and regional data.
DGA estimated that Sheikh Adi has between 1 billion (P90) and 3 billion barrels (P10) of gross oil-in-place volumes. Gulf Keystone also confirmed today that it has completed drilling Sheikh Adi-1, which was the first exploration well on the structure, to a depth of 3,780 meters in the Triassic zone. It said that a series of flow tests will now be performed on a number of Jurassic zones in the well.
Sheikh Adi is immediately to the west of Shaikan block. Gulf Keystone has a 80 per cent working interest in Sheik Adi, and the remaining 20 per cent interest is held by the Kurdistan Regional Government.
On AIM Gulf Keystone share gained around 25p a share, around 20 per cent, to reach an intraday high of 138.75. At 14:00 the stock was trading at 129.25p. Despite this strong rise, in what is still a pretty poor market, Gulf Keystone is still some way off the highs it reached back in 2010.
Like many of the other AIM listed-oil stock that are popular with retail investors, like Rockhopper Petroleum and Cove Energy for example, Gulf Keystone's stock has been under severe pressure recently as the market turmoil has forced some investors to sell many assets to cover trading losses.
Last Thursday, at the height of the selling, Gulf Keystone shares were down more than 50 per cent from the November 2010 highs of 196p.
This is a stark contrast to the group's operational progress on the ground in Kurdistan, however, where things are developing quite rapidly. First of all Gulf Keystone has continued to find more oil through its ongoing appraisal drilling, particularly on the Shaikan oilfield where it is now drilling deep targets. Meanwhile the political environment is reportedly improving in the semi-autonomous region, something that is supported by the recent restart of oil exports from northern Iraq.
Neighbouring Kurdistan-operating oil firm DNO is now exporting its production from the region and Gulf Keystone is now make preparations to export its production ��" from the upper reservoirs in the Shaikan oilfield.
Initially Gulf Keystone plans to export 5,000 barrels of oil. This is then expected to rise to 40,000 barrels a day by the end of 2012.
"We believe that the positions of the Baghdad Government and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) are gradually merging and that increase in production and exports would serve everyone's best interests," said Fox-Davies analyst Shahin Amini.
"The payment of US$104 million to DNO by KRG in June 2011 is particularly encouraging as it was the first payment to a foreign oil company for oil exports from Kurdistan."
In a note to clients Amini described today's announcement as 'yet another positive technical update' as he repeated a 'buy' recommendation and a 275p price target for Gulf Keystone shares.
This afternoon it unveiled a new independent assessment that puts the size of the Sheik Adi oilfield between 1 and 3 billion barrels of oil.
Combined with the company's more explored Shaikan oilfield, and the Akri-Bijeel discovery, the group's assets are now estimated to contain almost 12 billion barrels of oil ��" on a 'mid-case' P50 estimate.
"This report reinforces our belief in having encountered yet another potential world class oil source," said chief operating officer John Gerstenlauer.
"We plan to further evaluate the Sheikh Adi structure and define and assess this complicated geological structure. The Sheikh Adi oil-in-place numbers are all the more significant due to our 80 percent interest in the block."
Today's independent preliminary evaluation of the Sheikh Adi resources was carried out by Dynamic Global Advisors (DGA). It was based on wireline logging data from the Sheikh Adi-1 well, core samples, 2D and 3D seismic and regional data.
DGA estimated that Sheikh Adi has between 1 billion (P90) and 3 billion barrels (P10) of gross oil-in-place volumes. Gulf Keystone also confirmed today that it has completed drilling Sheikh Adi-1, which was the first exploration well on the structure, to a depth of 3,780 meters in the Triassic zone. It said that a series of flow tests will now be performed on a number of Jurassic zones in the well.
Sheikh Adi is immediately to the west of Shaikan block. Gulf Keystone has a 80 per cent working interest in Sheik Adi, and the remaining 20 per cent interest is held by the Kurdistan Regional Government.
On AIM Gulf Keystone share gained around 25p a share, around 20 per cent, to reach an intraday high of 138.75. At 14:00 the stock was trading at 129.25p. Despite this strong rise, in what is still a pretty poor market, Gulf Keystone is still some way off the highs it reached back in 2010.
Like many of the other AIM listed-oil stock that are popular with retail investors, like Rockhopper Petroleum and Cove Energy for example, Gulf Keystone's stock has been under severe pressure recently as the market turmoil has forced some investors to sell many assets to cover trading losses.
Last Thursday, at the height of the selling, Gulf Keystone shares were down more than 50 per cent from the November 2010 highs of 196p.
This is a stark contrast to the group's operational progress on the ground in Kurdistan, however, where things are developing quite rapidly. First of all Gulf Keystone has continued to find more oil through its ongoing appraisal drilling, particularly on the Shaikan oilfield where it is now drilling deep targets. Meanwhile the political environment is reportedly improving in the semi-autonomous region, something that is supported by the recent restart of oil exports from northern Iraq.
Neighbouring Kurdistan-operating oil firm DNO is now exporting its production from the region and Gulf Keystone is now make preparations to export its production ��" from the upper reservoirs in the Shaikan oilfield.
Initially Gulf Keystone plans to export 5,000 barrels of oil. This is then expected to rise to 40,000 barrels a day by the end of 2012.
"We believe that the positions of the Baghdad Government and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) are gradually merging and that increase in production and exports would serve everyone's best interests," said Fox-Davies analyst Shahin Amini.
"The payment of US$104 million to DNO by KRG in June 2011 is particularly encouraging as it was the first payment to a foreign oil company for oil exports from Kurdistan."
In a note to clients Amini described today's announcement as 'yet another positive technical update' as he repeated a 'buy' recommendation and a 275p price target for Gulf Keystone shares.
SA1 FLOW TESTS
Food4Thought
Any idea how long this will take? within a week or two going on other tests.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
They would do well to do acid washes before testing, otherwise they will be disappointing.
Share dealing sites
Share dealing sites
Hub
I'm doing a poll on thesharehub regarding pi's views on brokers/ share dealing sites
I've listed below some sites/brokers, - if there's any I have missed off just let me know.
Poll will be based on Performance/reliability and then second poll based on Customer Service as these two parts can often offset the other!
1. Natwest (backroom is TDW)
2. TDW
3. Barclays Stockbrokers
4. Hargreaves Lansdown
5. Selftrade
6. Halifax
7. Saxo Bank
8.TheShareCentre
9. iweb
10. SVS Securities
11. Guardian Shares
12. Interactive Investor
will do a separate poll for CFD/ spread betters.
thxs
HUB
Another international one is Internaxx (Part of TDW).
X-O.co.uk execution only -low cost share dealing no issues so far
Saxo
pipos
1UP
SAXO is a semi pro system and really really good.
You can trade FX options, I saved my bacon in this carp out by buying AUD puts and 1 touch put options......and you can put your SIPP in it and leverage your SIPP !
======
StockMomentum
View profile
More options Aug 9, 1:09 pm
Your profits on any trade are made the moment you buy. Getting a great
value in the first place sets you up for every penny you are going to
make. Selling is just an administrative step to close the deal.
Not everyone agrees with this theory, but it is true.
Despite that, you still need to know a few pointers to ensure you get
your top price when you sell your penny stocks (which hopefully aren’t
at pennies anymore!)
LIKE MY PAGE AT: http://www.facebook.com/pages/StockMomentum/156226107742618
====
Here is an article from today's Shares Magazine, poor format to copy:
'The top online trading platforms
provide a fully comprehensive
one-stop shop that
allows users to manage all
aspects of their accounts, while
monitoring the markets for new
opportunities. Other key areas to
consider when voting are the range
of markets and the speed of execution
and reliability, as there is no
point in having a sophisticated platform
if it is not up and running
when you need it.
Last year’s Shares Award for Best
Online Trading Platform went to Saxo
Bank for its impressive
SaxoWebTrader software. This powerful
piece of kit allows clients to trade
shares, contracts for difference
(CFDs) and forex, while customising
the display to show whatever charts,
prices, research and news they find
the most useful.
Henrik Holst, head of platform management
at the company, says
SaxoWebTrader is specifically designed
to make trading as fast and efficient as
possible, features which are vitally
important in today’s market.
‘SaxoWebTrader is a multi-asset trading
platform with a specific set of tools
for each asset class. It provides a clean
and coherent user interface where
modules, tools and data are where you
would expect them to be.’
The latest version of the software
has an intuitive, easily navigable ribbon-
style toolbar menu. There is also
a new module that allows users to
view and manage their positions and
related orders in one integrated workflow.
This enables traders to quickly
and easily close positions or put in
place stop and limit orders.
‘We are focused on making the trading
experience for all types of traders
as positive and intuitive as possible
and clearly guide users through the
broad range of features on our trading
platform,’ explains Holst.
Another leading player to bear in
mind is CMC Markets, which brought
out a brand new version of its web platplatform
late last year. This is designed to
offer clients a fast, accurate service
with automated trade execution as
well as charts and analytics.
Craig Inglis, the company’s product
manager, says CMC pushes the
technology boundaries within the
industry to redefine the customer
experience and distinguish itself
from competitors.
‘We have redefined the way that
customers trade and invest, with
industry-leading trading tools and features,
richer content and seamless
access to real-time trading and investing
opportunities.’
One interesting innovation CMC has
recently introduced is customisable
margin. This allows clients to decide
on a position-by-position basis how
much they want to fund themselves
and how much they want to leverage.
‘Clients can hold on to positions long
term with no leverage, or they can
trade short term with high leverage,
the choice is theirs. This fractional
ownership allows them to use their
funds more effectively.’
idealing .com
Usually very good.Online dealing but will also accept telephone orders if the market is very volitile.Dealing costs are very competitive £9.99 per trade which reduces with the number of trades per month.
solar fire
2UP
HUB I have an offshore account with Bank Of Valletta and I can tell you that their share service is extremely expensive to use, clumsy and with very poor customer service. I held BP shares there for ages and eventually sold up, but not after paying over £50 for the privilege.
Not recommended. But probably not needed on your poll. Off shore accounts can be very expensive in my experience.
==
pipos
The main reaosn I left Hargreaves is that they always go to a market maker to deal, which means you lose spread and when liquidity is low they sometimes won't return a price and until recently you couldn't leave orders with them, it is archaic. Saxo puts you straight into the market, so often you can deal mid market, saving comms. Yesterday GKP was 117/119 so put in a 117.5 bid and got filled...........it's is te best all in one package that doesn;t have a monthly subscription......
http://www.iii.co.uk/go?c=cp8qjm
Get Level 2 now for only £20.00!
==
Our friends...
bournemuff
17
Anybody see the transcript from yesterday ? lol
The next supermajor, potentially sitting on 60bn barrels of oil in Kurdistan. Loved by muxxxts across the globe.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP:LSE): Last: 119.00, up 5.5 (+4.85%), High: 123.70, Low: 115.50, Volume: 5.29m
BE
Yes. Independent report’s out on Sheikh Adi
NH
and
NH
how many billions of barrels
BE
John Gerstenlauer, Gulf Keystone’s Chief Operating Officer commented:
“This independent report demonstrates the potential of the Sheikh Adi block with between 1 and 3 billion barrels of gross oil-in-place.”
BE
Hm. Not Todd.
BE
“This report reinforces our belief in having encountered yet another potential world class oil source. We plan to further evaluate the Sheikh Adi structure and define and assess this complicated geological structure. The Sheikh Adi oil-in-place numbers are all the more significant due to our 80 percent interest in the block. These numbers are in addition to 7.5 billion barrels of P50 oil-in-place at Shaikan, 2.4 billion barrels of P50 oil-in-place at Akri-Bijeel and 1.9 billion barrels of estimated petroleum-initially-in-place at Ber Bahr. This report further demonstrates the world class nature of Gulf Keystone’s assets in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq”.
NH
another world class source
NH
they seem to fall over them
BE
This is an independent report from Dynamic Global Advisors
NH
who?
BE
You remember. “Houston-based exploration consultants.”
NH
no
NH
remind me
BE
Blue-chip clients including …….
BE
Er …..
BE
GKP.
NH
yes, its slowly coming back
NH
Brass plate above door
BE
There’s some investigative work on them in the Long Room I think.
BE
(To which no stock-ramping muxxxet has access.)
A term of endearment used to describe BB share promoters on FT Alphaville.
BE
(So please don’t ask.)
==
FTAO SCARAMOUCHE (etal)
villebois
we have the jan.auction of goodies in the south,and we would strongly hope that an O and G will be in place(otherwise one would suspect they will be a great deal of anger among the iraqi people,theKRG and the americans amongst others) and so you would think the party is open to all.however it seems knoc and sinopec and the other northeners are barred,despite the fact that malakis two "state" visits have been to korea and china and relations are very cosy.so is the reverse likely that the southerners are barred/deterred from going to kurdistan?if so the only co. with the cash and clout to get 100 wells on SH and SA are sinopec.are todd and the krg right now showing all the data to them and negotiating a price(sandunnes eight quid????) and the day the Oand G law is passed todd will announce a fait accompli((An accomplished, presumably irreversible deed or fact.)),game over and we are invited to the cold showers to restore our sanity after three turbulent years.?
one last point however,it has cost the americans thousands of lives and billions of dollars to bring democracy to iraq are they really going to let the keys to one of the worlds great treasures pass into the hands of those that hold most of their debt and who about to relegate them to second spot in the world economic rankings?or is this southern barring a smoke screen to allow exon or chevron unhindered unnoticed and officially unconsidered doing the talk and walking the walk with todd at this very minute?
regards,v
============
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/09/27/iraq-oil-target-idUKL5E7KR2W720110927
Tue Sep 27, 2011 6:06pm BST
* Iraq oil output capacity seen better at 5 mln bpd
* Govt could renegotiate with foreign companies
By Ahmed Rasheed
ISTANBUL, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Iraq needs to revise the 12 million barrel per day oil output capacity target it agreed with foreign oil companies to more "reasonable" levels of around 5 million, the head of Iraq's parliamentary energy committee said on Tuesday.
Iraq, an OPEC member that needs cash to rebuild its war-battered economy, is under pressure to reopen negotiations with foreign companies and abandon the original crude production target that would have made it rival Saudi Arabia.
"I think we need to revise our future targets of production," Oil and Energy Committee chief Adnan al-Janabi said in an interview with Reuters at an energy summit in Turkey. "I think it will be reasonable to have a production of 5 million barrels a day until starting quota discussions with OPEC."
Iraq has long aimed to increase its production after awarding companies contracts in 2009 as it crawls back from years of war. But analysts have said the initial target was unlikely to be met because of export and infrastructure limits.
Oil Minister Abdul-Kareem Luaibi said earlier this month that a capacity target of 8 million to 8.5 million bpd would be more suitable. He said the government was still studying reports and would make a decision by next year when it would approach companies about renegotiation.
Janabi also said the parliamentary energy committee now has two versions of the country's much-delayed oil and gas draft law and they will study both to come up with an acceptable version.
Iraq's oil law is seen as vital for the country to secure more oil investment and provide foreign companies with a stable legal framework. But disputes over who controls oil resources have harried its passage.
The cabinet has approved one draft which gives the central government more control over crude reserves and will likely stir tensions with Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region, which also claim more authority over some disputed fields.
Another separate draft was put together by the parliamentary energy committee after lawmakers became frustrated with the lack of progress in passing the original version.
"In my committee we have the two drafts, we're studying both," he said. "I don't think it will take too long to go forward with this law." (Writing by Patrick Markey; Editing by Anthony Barker)
=============
Kurdistan calls sadr to lean to Constitution’s Article 140 to settle differences
9/28/2011 10:35 AM
ARBIL / Aswat al-Iraq: A spokesman for north Iraq Kurdistan Region’s government has said on Tuesday that Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution “is considered the only guarantee to settle differences,” in a comment on recent statements by the Chairman of the Shiite Sadr Trend, Muqtada al-Sadr, who warned against the merger of northeast Iraq’s Khanaquin Township to Kurdistan Region.
“The main trend of the Kurdistan Region’s government is to implement Article 140 to settle differences according to the Iraqi Constitution,” pointing out that “the Kurds in Khanaquin and its surrounding areas are facing compulsory immigration out of their home areas, thing that the Kurdistan Region’s government won’t allow,” Kawa Mahmoud told Aswat al-Iraq news agency.
Mahmoud said that the Kurdish Peshmerga forces have been spread in Khanaquin “in order to protect its Arab, Turkomen and Kurdish inhabitants and to prevent any demographic change in the area, because such trend does not cope with Iraq’s new policy,” adding that “Kurdistan Region’s government is committed to the Constitution and other forces and parties must be keen to its implementation.”
The satellite position of the Political Committee of the Sadrist Trend had quoted Sadr to have said, in his reply on calls to merge Khanaquin and its surrounding areas to Kurdistan Region, thing that the Sadrist Trend said it had “warned from and confirmed that the Federalism would take steps that won’t please anybody.”
The Kurdistan Region’s government had spread its Peshmerga forces around the areas surrounding Khanaquin to achieve “protection” for the inhabitants of those areas, after the escalation of violence acts the Kurds say they were targeted against their inhabitants, mostly belonging to the Kurdish Community.
Kurdistan Region’s President, Massoud Barzani, has met on Sept.
22 the Mayor of Khanaquin township and other Kurdish personalities and citizens, in which he said that “the main target for spreading the Peshmerga forces in the areas belonging to Khanaquin aims at achieving protection for the inhabitants of the Township, belonging to Arab, Kurdish and Turkomen Communities,” adding that “their security missions does not aim to protect a certain community against another.”
=================================================
04:31
Your going to have to hurry toddy
Kandymans1
20
If you want your big pay day in 2011.
Let's be honest folks , the targets set for 2011 for the boys to get their share options would have been in their minds a very achievable target.275p, 325p 375p.
Now Todd never knew that the euro crises , japenese crises ,and the macro situation was going to scupper his yearly bonus.
I bet he thought that the few upgrades in Oip , flow rates news, numerous rigs drilling , sheik adi find would easily have achieved his targets.
And to be fair the sp IMO should have hit there by now.Maybe the setback in sales revenue and the extra long drill on sheik adi also scuppered((An opening for draining off water, as from a floor or the roof of a building.
)) their projections.
The shareprice at time of issuing bonus shares was at 173 with option price of 175 for the boys which I would not begrudge.
Now to my reason for posting. If it were you, would it be fair to say that you would do whatever is possible to get my hands on these beauties .So let's look at his options
1 sh2 flow rates
2 sh4 flow rates
3 increases Oip due to seismics and drill on sh2& sh4( remember this is a given IMO ,seismics already shows Shaikan bigger than thought.Also massive oil column in sh4.
Now you would imagine that should be enough , well maybe he might have to
4 Bekhme results ( potential 8 billion , Todds words on cnbc )
5 sell akri bijeel block
6 flow rates on sheik adi
Now this maybe wishful thinking but it just shows that Todd should have plenty of ammo to reach his target sp for his bonus shares.I'm not suggesting he divulge all but the odd one should do it.Then again he could
7 announce Ftse listing
8 oil shows on sh5
9 spud on sh6 ( potential owc)
10 the biggie , ber bahr oil shows
Now I know Todd is not short of a few bob but tbh I blo oody am and xmas is coming.
Now I know your hands maybe slightly tied on what you can release by the krg but get your finger out and get the thing moving.Today would be a good day please.
Oh and let's not forget
11 t/o rumour
On iPhone so apologise for spelling etc , good luck
Share Option Plan with Long Term Incentive Performance Conditions
The Remuneration Committee also recommended to the EBT Trustee grants of options under the existing Share Option Plan with stretching long term incentive performance conditions ("2010 LTIP Options"). It recommended that the Trustee grants 2010 LTIP Options over common shares at a price of 175 pence per share to the following Directors as set out below:
Todd Kozel 4,195,000
Ewen Ainsworth 839,000
John Gerstenlauer 839,000
It is recommended that the 2010 LTIP Options will be available for exercise in equal tranches over three financial years subject to the following performance conditions:
(i) One third of the 2010 LTIP Options will vest on the share price reaching 275 pence.
(ii) One third of the 2010 LTIP Options will vest on the share price reaching 325 pence.
(iii) One third of the 2010 LTIP Options will vest on the share price reaching 375 pence.
By Kandymans1
Farce: A light dramatic work in which highly improbable plot situations, exaggerated characters, and often slapstick elements are used for humorous effect.
=============
First of all, we would like to refer you to Gulf Keystone’s most recent Litigation Update issued on 26 July 2011 which stated that “a provisional date of October 2012 has been set for a trial in the English Commercial Court of Excalibur's claims” (
http://www.gulfkeystone.com/rns.aspx
)
The hearing which took place on 14 October 2011 was a case management review hearing to confirm the preparation and timing of the trial in the English Commercial Court scheduled to commence in October 2012. No regulatory announcement was issued as a result of the case management review hearing of 14 October 2011.
Given the sensitive nature of the aforementioned legal proceedings, the lengthy preparation time required and the protracted nature of legal proceedings, Gulf Keystone will update the market and its shareholders as to the status of these legal proceedings at an appropriate time in an appropriate regulatory announcement, as per the Company’s established practice and in line with the AIM Rules for Companies.
We would like to reiterate that the Company disputes all asserted claims and allegations and is in the process of contesting them. The Company’s vigorous defence against all the claims of Excalibur Ventures LLC, including for an interest of up to 30% in the Company’s blocks in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, in particular the world-class discovery at the Shaikan block, is being conducted in the best interests of all the shareholders of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. We are confident of being able to defeat all the claims asserted by Excalibur Ventures LLC.
Thank you for your support of Gulf Keystone.
===================================
new tender
GKP.L
57
IMO the most important tender we have seen. An attempt to reduce drilling problems within the problematic Cretaceous (and perhaps mud losses to the Jurassic too I will check) that have prolonged drilling times and continue to be a threat to the timely accretion of value.
Regards,
Gramacho
========================
UPDATE 1-Genel interested in acquiring DNO, executive says
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/11/13/genel-dno-idUKL5E7MD0JT20111113
Sun Nov 13, 2011 4:04pm GMT
* Genel looking to deploy $2.2 bln cash pile
* No detailed talks with potential merger partners (Adds pipeline plan)
By Serena Chaudhry
ARBIL, Iraq, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Genel Energy group sees Norway's DNO as a "natural partner" as it seeks to acquire assets, but the company is not in detailed talks with anyone as it completes its own merger, a Genel executive said on Sunday.
Genel Energy, formed by the combination of Vallares Plc and Turkey's Genel Enerji, has made no secret of its plans to make acquisitions with its $2.2 billion in cash.
"DNO is our natural partner so it makes a lot of sense if we can take them into Genel," Mehmet Sepil, CEO of Genel Enerji, told Reuters on the sidelines of an oil and gas conference in Arbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan.
Former BP chief executive Tony Hayward said earlier on Sunday that he expected the Genel merger to be completed around Nov. 21.
Sepil said he would remain with the new company but would not be involved in the day-to-day management.
"We have to finalise this merger process," Sepil said. "We are interested in a few companies, (but there are) no detailed talks at this point."
"I'm sure in the next few months you'll see a lot of announcements coming from us," he said.
Hayward told a Norwegian newspaper in late October he was interested in buying DNO and its Kurdish oil licences.
DNO chief executive Helge Eide said last week that the company was ready to pursue its own acquisitions as it integrates the Gulf assets of Dubai-based RAK Petroleum.
DNO is producing 50,000 barrels per day of crude at its Tawke field in Iraq's northern Kurdish region and will boost output capacity to 100,000 bpd next year, Eide told Reuters at the conference on Sunday.
DNO's stock surged 20 percent on Friday on reports that Exxon Mobil had completed a deal with the Kurdistan Regional Government for six exploration blocs.
A KRG official confirmed the Exxon deal on Sunday.
Exxon's entry into the Kurdish region was seen as a sign that DNO's production-sharing deals with the Kurdish government could be approved. Iraq's central government considers such deals illegal.
"The Exxon story was probably great news for everybody but not for us," Sepil said. "I really wished they had come six months later."
Hayward said Genel Energy is planning to build a $400 million oil pipeline to link its Tak Tak oilfield with Iraq's export pipeline to Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan.
The company hopes to start construction on the 400,000-barrel-per-day pipeline in the spring and finish by the second half of 2013, Hayward said.
"We are planning to build a pipeline from Tak Tak to Faysh Khabour, which is the upstation in the northern part of Kurdistan immediately this side of the border with Turkey, and it's tying in to the major export line with Ceyhan," Hayward said in Arbil.
Faysh Khabour is located in northwestern Iraq near the border with Syria and Turkey.
"We've completed the engineering on it and are currently in the market to identify an EPC (engineering, procurement and construction) contractor," Hayward said. (Editing by Jim Loney and David Cowell)
====================
13:42
Buy Spoke to GKP IR
LESTER THE INVESTOR
19UP
Earlier.
Genel will make the appropriate announcement re berbehr but I got the impression that we were very close either td or test results.
I asked about sh4 updates. Contrary to the RNS on January 9th updates regarding the tests will be announced as and when anything is found that could have a material impact on the SP. we will not have to wait until or tests are completed.
I made the point that the original RNS (jan 9th) is therefore inaccurate/misleading but I was told this is standard practice/wording.
Anyway, good news that an RNS therefore should appear any day as test results from the remaining sh4 formations (I think 5 are left) should be completing.
Regards
=======
13:37
Two frauds sent packing
Gawain_1977
23UP
Whilst the SP has quietened somewhat, there has at least been some very good news today: we've (hopefully) now seen the last of Spikey "click here & make me cash" Darren Turgel - exposed as a minor digital media spammer.
Plus, we've laid to rest the (frankly ridiculous) Spencer Freeman 'person' many people here seemed to think actually ran GKP!
So, a sigh of relief for the normal folk on this board and hopefully we'll see less s.h.a.t. written as a consequence!
Good luck to all sane posters on here!
13:32
Re: Spencer put to Bed as a Fake
Little Plum 01
8UP
And anyway GKP are hardly likely to say that he's posting correct information.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Get some common sense little plum
--------------------------------------------------------
I personally don't take any notice of Spencer or Noble Trader or Sandunes and take what others say with a pinch of salt and would never make any investment based on the wild speculation that tends to fly around this board - that's common sense and I also have enough of it not to bother contacting GKP regarding what someone is writing on twitter.
===
Author farmertim View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 13:08
Subject Re: P&F Targets
View parent message
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 22 times.
Message
Good afternoon all, I hope this little post finds you well and in good heart? It’s a beautiful day outside, spring is in the air, so my farming nose can smell it on the breeze!
I’ve not had opportunity to read everything this morning so if I repeat anything which has already been said then please accept my apology.
This morning’s price action is very interesting and I feel there are various possibilities open. It is imperative you asses possible outcomes, probabilities and a plan for all scenarios, accepting that the market will always do what it wants regardless of what me, you, mere mortals think otherwise.
My post last night was in hindsight leaning towards the bullish aspect, and in some regards I still am, but you have to be aware of the possibilities of retrace. It is clear now institutions have collected a lot of shares, some could argue that gives them greater leverage to ‘manipulate’ the share price to their gain. If the volatility returns then we need to be prepared and expect it. Don’t try to fight it!
There is a distinct possibility that this is the beginnings of a retrace. Jackozys five wave principle and target has been met so the immediate action now, I feel, will decipher how the next few days week will unravel. I'm not sure if Jackozy, TFM or Dave the length, drg9 or pj66 have said so but I'm assuming the retrace will be in three waves if that is what is unraveling? (please correct if I've miss understood.)
The retracement levels that I'm watching are on this daily chart.
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/22133197/GULF%20KEYSTONE%20PETROLEUM%20LTD%20COM%20SHS%20USD0.01%20%27DI%27DailyFibs14Feb2012.gif
Today's price action has retraced in the region of 50% of this particular spike.
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/22133197/GULF%20KEYSTONE%20PETROLEUM%20LTD%20COM%20SHS%20USD0.01%20%27DI%2715minFib14Feb2012.gif
Counting and naming waves I will leave to Jackozy, what I am looking for is the P&F targets matching with the Fib levels and how that affects the bullish targets. Just because it retraces does not mean it’s not bullish! Be prepared.
The Log 1 minute chart still has the bullish target of 463 active, this target will stay on the chart as long as 337 is not breached, notice this is very much near the 23.6% retracement level. There is also a target of 409 activated.
Bearish targets, 370 was active yesterday and has been met this morning, the drop has also created a target of 312 which is not yet activated, a new low is required to make it so, a rise above 400 would take this target off the chart.
There are quite a few down trend lines against the main up trend which is going to provide a bit of resistance to an immediate move higher. Usually targets against the trend don’t get hit and so as the 370 has been hit this morning a degree of apprehension is creeping in for me.
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/22133197/GULF%20KEYSTONE%20PETROLEUM%20LTD%20COM%20SHS%20USD0.01%20%27DI%27LogP%26F14Feb2012.gif
The arithmetic chart is similar.
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/22133197/GULF%20KEYSTONE%20PETROLEUM%20LTD%20COM%20SHS%20USD0.01%20%27DI%271minArthP%26F14Feb2012.gif
Bullish Targets of 406, 404 and 398 are all activated, a new low of the day would take them off the chart and activate the bearish target of 306. 306 is not activated as yet.
The 15 minute Log chart is giving a similar picture, bullish targets of 445 and 414, both are active. The bearish target of 350 is also activated.
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/22133197/GULF%20KEYSTONE%20PETROLEUM%20LTD%20COM%20SHS%20USD0.01%20%27DI%2715minP%26F14Feb2012.gif
And so where to from here?
It all comes down to the fact if we make new highs. New highs will take all bearish targets off the table.
It’s also quite interesting that the short term candle charts are showing bullish divergence on the On Balance Volume but the 30 and 60 minutes currently are not.
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/22133197/GULF%20KEYSTONE%20PETROLEUM%20LTD%20COM%20SHS%20USD0.01%20%27DI%275minOBV14Feb2012.gif
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/22133197/GULF%20KEYSTONE%20PETROLEUM%20LTD%20COM%20SHS%20USD0.01%20%27DI%2715minOBV14Feb2012.gif
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/22133197/GULF%20KEYSTONE%20PETROLEUM%20LTD%20COM%20SHS%20USD0.01%20%27DI%2730minOBV14Feb2012.gif
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/22133197/GULF%20KEYSTONE%20PETROLEUM%20LTD%20COM%20SHS%20USD0.01%20%27DI%2760minsOBV14feb2012.gif
The P&F short term charts with the cluster of targets around 405 and bullish divergence on the OBV short term candlesticks would possible indicate there is still a bit of buying pressure around, but significantly if we don’t make new highs a pullback may well develop to the area of 340-350 which would still leave the bullish targets of 463 and 445 available. If the 337 area is broken, bullish targets would be removed and we will be looking towards the other retracement levels.
Remember nothing is guaranteed and stay open minded and nimble!
But remember the daily chart is still bullish, 834 is active and will continue to be so along as we are above 166!
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/22133197/GULF%20KEYSTONE%20PETROLEUM%20LTD%20COM%20SHS%20USD0.01%20%27DI%27DailyP%26F14Feb2012.gif
The volatility will enable the 30 & 60 minute P&F charts to ‘catch up’ and create new targets!
Best wishes all
Tim
=========
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