Source: Reuters
By Michael Georgy
ISLAMABAD, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Pakistan is determined to have a controlling say over Afghanistan's future, whether a peace settlement with the Taliban is cobbled together or not.
Pakistani officials have been delivering a familiar message -- peace in Afghanistan is not possible without Islamabad -- after signs that major stakeholders are seriously considering ways of trying to end nine years of war.
Pakistan will no doubt make these demands at a three-day meeting with U.S. officials that starts on Wednesday and which will also discuss ways to broaden relations that have recently been strained by the Afghan conflict. [nN19164049]
Here are some questions and answers on what Pakistan hopes to get out of any Afghanistan endgame.
WHERE DOES PAKISTAN FIT IN THE AFGHANISTAN EQUATION?
Pakistan's influence has been growing in Afghanistan since its ISI spy agency supported anti-Soviet mujahideen holy warriors in the 1980s. Pakistan later helped create the Taliban. Today, it is accused of still covertly backing Taliban leaders fighting U.S.-led NATO forces in Afghanistan. Pakistan sees them as insurance against the growing interests of rival India there.
CAN PAKISTAN CALL THE SHOTS IN AFGHANISTAN?
All sides know Pakistan is needed for any settlement because of its influence over senior Taliban leaders, who are believed to be hiding in its lawless northwestern border areas with Afghanistan. But to what extent can Islamabad shape one?
Pakistan is betting on the Taliban to do its bidding, whether through negotiations, in the event of a Taliban takeover, or a return to chaos and civil war. That's why it is manoeuvering to get its Taliban proteges included in the talks.
Islamabad hopes the United States would eventually welcome the participation of the Haqqani faction -- its main asset in Afghanistan and Washington's deadliest foe there.
The group -- named after a notorious mujahideen warrior with a history of switching sides -- and other Taliban factions may have their own agenda, however.
After all, most Taliban leaders are nationalists, not global jihadists like al Qaeda, who are likely to resist too much Pakistani meddling in Afghanistan's affairs.
"They are not going to be somebody's puppet just like that," said Pakistani Taliban expert Rahimullah Yusufzai.
WHAT IS PAKISTAN'S BIGGEST FEAR?
A repeat of history. After Soviet troops were defeated in Afghanistan, U.S. interest in Afghanistan evaporated and Pakistan was left with a mess next door, where civil war broke out.
Pakistan believes a planned July 2011 gradual U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan would be hasty and could lead to large-scale instability with repercussions. For one, more Afghan refugees could join the millions who fled here when rival warlords destroyed the country after the Russians left.
It wants a well calculated pullout that fully takes into account Islamabad's interests.
Otherwise, Pakistan's generals may continue to resist U.S. pressure to mount an all-out offensive in its North Waziristan tribal border region to eliminate the Haqqanis. It is more likely to launch selective operations to try to appease the Americans.
Pakistan can always try to sabotage any peace process through ISI ties to the Haqqanis or figures like overall Taliban leader Mullah Omar, if it feels left out.
CAN PAKISTAN AND THE U.S. COOPERATE MORE ON AFGHANISTAN?
The U.S. is likely to again complain that Pakistan -- the recipient of $2 billion in annual U.S. military aid needed to fight Taliban insurgents -- must do more to tackle militancy when they hold another "strategic dialogue" in Washington this week.
Given recent strains in ties, Washington may not be in the mood to hear Pakistani advice that the Obama administration should be practical, not idealistic, and keep an open mind on dialogue with all Taliban leaders.
For now, Pakistan will remain patient, hoping Washington can eventually be persuaded, as Islamabad weighs all the possible dangers ahead. Regional powers like Russia and Iran could undermine the best-intentioned comprehensive peace plan if they decide their interests are being undermined, for instance.
WHAT IF A PEACE SETTLEMENT IS NOT REACHED?
An unstable Afghanistan may not be so bad for Pakistan. It would feel threatened by any strong central government with close ties to India. Islamabad may prefer to see power in the hands of provincial warlords and Taliban factions it can manipulate.
As long as conflict doesn't spill over the border and overwhelm Pakistan, it may keep playing a game it has mastered over the years.
(Editing by Chris Allbritton and Miral Fahmy)
=============
FACTBOX-What's happening in the Afghan-Taliban talks?
22 Oct 2010 08:58:13 GMT
Source: Reuters
(For a story on the talks, click on SGE69L07O)
By Patrick Markey
KABUL, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai says his government has made preliminary contacts with Taliban insurgents as Afghan, U.S. and NATO officials look for a possible negotiated exit to a war now entering its tenth year.
The Taliban themselves dismiss talks as propaganda, and there have been often conflicting media reports about the level of contact with insurgents and who exactly is involved.
Here are some details on what has been reported, what has been said in public and who the key players are:
WHAT HAS BEEN REPORTED ON TALKS:
* Much of the flurry over talks began after the Washington Post reported Karzai's government had held secret talks with Taliban representatives. The Post cited Afghan and Arab sources, who said the representatives spoke for the Quetta Shura Taliban leadership based in Pakistan and top leader Mohammad Omar.
* Citing various sources, Reuters reported all main parties in the conflict were now considering ways to reach a deal. But the sources, including NATO, Afghan and non-American officials, said the "talks about talks" were preliminary and fragile.
* The New York Times, citing mainly Afghan sources, reported "extensive face-to-face" talks between Karzai's inner circle and high level Taliban commanders who left Pakistan with NATO's help. In one case, the Times reported, Taliban leaders boarded a NATO aircraft. Taliban leader Mullah Omar had been cut out of the talks, it said, but the hardline, al-Qaeda linked Haqqani faction was involved.
WHAT OFFICIALS SAY IN PUBLIC:
* Karzai says there have been preliminary contacts with the Taliban, although no direct negotiations. Afghan government officials acknowledge there have had on-again, off-again contacts with the Taliban over the past two years.
* Senior U.S. envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, dismissed reports of secret talks while U.S. General David Petraeus said NATO-led forces "facilitated" passage of a senior Taliban commander to Kabul. U.S. officials say that meant logistics or "moving people to meeting locations". Petraeus said contacts were not at the level of negotiations.
* U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called it "a complex effort that is just beginning" and U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Washington would do "whatever it takes".
* NATO's top Afghanistan representative, Mark Sedwill said contacts are "channels of communications" with significant Taliban but it was unclear whether they represented factions or wider groups. "It's not even yet talks about talks," he said.
* Afghan Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid rejected media reports of secret negotiations, repeating a long-standing demand for all foreign troops to leave Afghanistan.
THE KEY PLAYERS:
* AFGHAN PRESIDENT HAMID KARZAI - The Afghan leader has long advocated talks with the Taliban. Karzai recently set up a peace council to broker talks and some say he may use it to soften preconditions for negotiations, which include insurgents renouncing al Qaeda and violence and respecting the constitution.
AFGHANISTAN'S TALIBAN - Afghanistan's largest insurgent force, the Taliban were ousted from power in 2001 by U.S.-backed Afghan forces. They now have a stronghold in southern Afghanistan but are spreading their insurgency to other areas.
HEZB-I-ISLAMI GULBUDDIN - The most moderate of the main insurgent groups, Hezb-i-Islami, is run by veteran commander Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. U.S. officials say he is looking to position himself for a role in a future government. In March, the group sent a delegation to Kabul for talks, but produced no results.
HAQQANI NETWORK - The militant Haqqani network is seen as closer to al Qaeda and has a long history of ties to Pakistan's spy services. Allied with the Taliban, the Haqqani group operates in southeastern and northern parts of the country, but often works independently of the Taliban, U.S. officials say.
PAKISTAN - Vital to U.S. efforts in Afghanistan because of its contacts with militant groups, Pakistan's government says reaching a peace deal will be impossible without its help. Islamabad says it is "part of the solution", but U.S. officials say elements of Pakistan's ISI spy agency back insurgents.
SAUDI ARABIA - The host of previous talks with the Taliban, Saudi Arabia has been touted by Karzai's peace council as a possible mediator. Saudi Arabia was one of the three countries that recognised the Taliban government in the past.
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION AND NATO -- President Barack Obama's administration wants to start bringing U.S. troops back from Afghanistan from July next year and the U.S. leader and NATO allies are under pressure at home over the increasingly unpopular war. U.S. officials want negotiations to respect its "red lines" -- insurgents must renounce al Qaeda, lay down arms and respect the Afghan constitution.
=======
Afghan insurgents say "no hope" for peace talks
22 Oct 2010 08:47:08 GMT
Source: Reuters
* Insurgents pour cold water on reports of talk
* Groups across country vow to keep fighting
* Preliminary contacts made, details unclear
By Sayed Salahuddin
KABUL, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Mid-level Taliban insurgency commanders do not believe their leaders have begun tentative peace talks with the Afghan government, with many vowing on Friday not to give up the fight after nearly 10 years of war.
NATO and Afghan officials have confirmed preliminary contacts between President Hamid Karzai's government and the Taliban, although doubt surrounds when those contacts were made, who they were made with and what, if any, progress was made.
Karzai is pushing a negotiated settlement to the conflict and has launched a High Peace Council which has said it is prepared to offer concessions to bring insurgents to the table, although Kabul and Washington are adamant they must renounce violence.[nSGE69K0JM]
However, insurgency commanders from across Afghanistan indicated they were not involved in the initial contacts.
"No one has come so far and sat with the government and there is no hope that the Taliban will come and negotiate with the government," said Abdullah Nasrat, the Taliban commander for Girishk district in southern Helmand province, one of the Taliban's traditional strongholds.
"We basically hear the reports of talks through the press and do not believe in them," Nasrat told Reuters by telephone. "As long as foreign forces are in Afghanistan, there will be no talks. Our morale is high."
Girishk is in the strategically important Helmand River valley, along which mainly U.S. and British forces launched a series of offensives last year.
Violence across Afghanistan is at its worst since the Taliban were ousted by U.S.-backed Afghan forces in late 2001. Record civilian and military casualties -- and the possibility of peace talks -- will weigh heavily on U.S. President Barack Obama when he conducts a strategy review of the Afghan war in December.
It will also be a central part of discussions at a NATO summit in Lisbon next month.
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For more on Afghanistan, click on [ID:nAFPAK]
For a factbox on the talks [nSGE69L07N
For factbox on key players [ID:nSGE69D0CY]
For analysis on the talks [ID:nSGE69D0AE]
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The New York Times newspaper on Wednesday quoted an unidentified Afghan source as saying Taliban leaders from the "Quetta shura" -- the leadership of the Afghan Taliban who are based in Pakistan -- and one member of the al Qaeda-linked Haqqani network had taken part in "extensive" talks.
Salahuddin Ayoubi, a senior commander for the Haqqani network's Sirajuddin Haqqani, accused U.S. General David Petraeus, the commander of the almost 150,000 foreign troops in Afghanistan, of trying to drive a wedge through the insurgency.
"These (reports) are part of a drama of General Petraeus, who from one side has stepped up the military operations and from other side wants to confuse the minds of the mujahideen by talking about talks," Ayoubi told Reuters.
"There has been no let up in our activities and we have not been told by our leaders to reduce or halt our operations for any reason," he said. Ayoubi also said reports earlier this year that Sirajuddin Haqqani's brother had taken part in talks were untrue.
The Haqqani network has been very active in the east and southeast over the past year and have been blamed for brazen suicide attacks on government targets and foreign troops.
"NO AUTHORITY"
Similar sentiments were expressed across the country.
"Karzai has no authority for making peace and cannot do anything without the order of the foreigners. I do not believe in the reports of the talks," said Feda Mohammad, a Taliban commander in northwest Badghis province.
Commanders for Hezb-i-Islami, run by veteran fighter Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, and the Haqqani network in southeastern Khost and Paktia provinces near the Pakistan border also said they would continue fighting.
In Kunduz province, which the Taliban have been using as a staging point for increasing attacks in the north and northeast, deputy governor Hamidullah Danesh said he doubted the reports of talks would have much impact on the Taliban insurgency.
However some criminal gangs, including about 60 members of one group, had surrendered in recent weeks, encouraged by government reconciliation efforts and in fear of increased military operations by NATO-led forces.
The High Peace Council said on Thursday it would be willing to make concessions to bring insurgents to the negotiating table, including jobs, homes and cash.
It also called for Saudi Arabia's help in future talks, although there has been no response yet from Riyadh.
Saudi Arabia sponsored secret, but inconclusive, talks last year and has acted as an interlocutor(Someone who takes part in a conversation, often formally or officially.) in the past.
Kabul and Washington have long urged that insurgents must first renounce violence and links to al Qaeda and accept the Afghan constitution as a precondition for talks. The Taliban reiterates its main plank, that all foreign troops must leave Afghanistan before talks could be possible.
(Additional reporting by Elyas Wahdat in KHOST, Ismail Sameem KANDAHAR, Sharafuddin Sharafyar in HERAT, and Mohammad Hamed in KUNDUZ; Writing by Paul Tait; Editing by Miral Fahmy)
(Reporting by Patrick Markey; Editing by Paul Tait and Miral Fahmy)
=========
ANALYSIS-Afghan peace talk reports help NATO fight
14 Oct 2010 13:13:50 GMT
Source: Reuters
* Reports of talks could undermine trust among insurgents
* Taliban say they are "psychological warfare"
* Confusion about who is a "senior leader"
By Sayed Salahuddin
KABUL, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Media reports of high-level talks between the Taliban and Afghan government may serve Western military aims by sowing confusion and undermining trust among insurgents, analysts and diplomats say.
A flurry of reports of negotiations, preparations for negotiations and even clandestine meetings in the Afghan capital may reflect a growing willingness by both sides in recent months to contemplate some kind of dialogue.
But coming as NATO-led forces make a push on the Taliban's spiritual heartland, the stories may -- intentionally or unintentionally -- further military aims.
"I had email contact with a Taliban on the other side (of the border) and he rejected the contact or talks, but at the same time spoke about the confusion," said Waheed Mozhdah, an analyst and former Taliban official who is still in touch with members of the movement.
"This is more of the psychological war against the Taliban," he added, referring to the impact of the reports on trust within the group.
A senior NATO official said on Wednesday that NATO-led forces were facilitating contacts between senior Taliban officials and the Afghan government and allowing them safe passage for talks in Kabul.
A senior Pakistani official familiar with the contacts between the Karzai government and Taliban on Thursday also acknowledged a shift in attitudes.
"The process has been set into motion. It's just the beginning and this in itself is a success because earlier there has been opposition (by Americans) to such contacts,"he said.
"These are pretty senior level contacts ... They are those who are involved in putting up resistance. Those who are fighting."
Like officials and sources quoted in other recent stories about talks, both NATO and Pakistani officials requested anonymity. A spokesman for Afghan President Hamid Karzai declined to comment on the reports.
FIGHTING ON ALL FRONTS
There is increasing acknowledgement in Afghanistan and abroad that a decisive military victory for the West and the Afghan government it backs is unlikely, and an eventual political solution may be the best way to end the fighting.
But rumours and nebulous stories about plans to talk can often undermine unity in insurgent groups, making rank-and-file members wary of their leaders, and leaders wary of each other.
A Kabul-based diplomat laid out the military benefits of talks for the top NATO and U.S. commander in Afghanistan David Petraeus, saying foot soldiers who hear news of talks may become mutinous (Unruly; disaffected: ) -- or at least less willing to risk their lives in battle.
NATO's apparent embrace of a move towards talks could send a message to wavering insurgents that they have an opponent who is serious about looking to sit down and make a deal.
"This has a major propaganda component. NATO is trying to pass on a message to the Taliban leaders that it can play a role in reconciliation 'if you are ready'," said Ahmad Saeedi, a former diplomat to Pakistan.
WHO IS SENIOR?
But sowing discord among the enemy just as you are trying to hammer them on the battlefield could also be aimed at pressuring them to come to the table faster.
A senior former Taliban official now living in Kabul and in contact with the movement's leaders has in the past told Reuters that the one vital condition for successful talks is secrecy.
The Taliban appear well aware of the risks of any move towards talks. In a statement this week spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid rejected the reports as "baseless propaganda ... part and parcel of a regular psychological warfare of the enemy".
He promised foot soldiers there would be no "trade on your blood and sacrifices by reaching any clandestine deal".
The veiled identity of most people willing to talk on the subject is compounded by the vague nature of most accounts of who is involved, and from which factions.
A report from NATO-led forces this week announced the capture of a "Taliban senior leader" in southern Afghanistan who commanded 20 men, a small group for a movement estimated to be thousands of fighters strong.
If those travelling to talk in Kabul are at a similar "senior" level, they may just be disgruntled local commanders seeking cash or an exit from a conflict they have tired of, analysts say, instead of its ideologically-driven core.
(Additional reporting by Zeeshan Haider in ISLAMBAD and Emma Graham-Harrison in KABUL; Writing by Emma Graham-Harrison, Editing by David Fox) (For more Reuters coverage of Afghanistan and Pakistan, see: http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/afghanistanpakistan) (emma.graham-harrison@thomsonreuters.com; Kabul Newsroom, +93 706 011 526) (If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com)
=========
FACTBOX-What's happening in the Afghan-Taliban talks?
22 Oct 2010 08:58:13 GMT
Source: Reuters
(For a story on the talks, click on SGE69L07O)
By Patrick Markey
KABUL, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai says his government has made preliminary contacts with Taliban insurgents as Afghan, U.S. and NATO officials look for a possible negotiated exit to a war now entering its tenth year.
The Taliban themselves dismiss talks as propaganda, and there have been often conflicting media reports about the level of contact with insurgents and who exactly is involved.
Here are some details on what has been reported, what has been said in public and who the key players are:
WHAT HAS BEEN REPORTED ON TALKS:
* Much of the flurry over talks began after the Washington Post reported Karzai's government had held secret talks with Taliban representatives. The Post cited Afghan and Arab sources, who said the representatives spoke for the Quetta Shura Taliban leadership based in Pakistan and top leader Mohammad Omar.
* Citing various sources, Reuters reported all main parties in the conflict were now considering ways to reach a deal. But the sources, including NATO, Afghan and non-American officials, said the "talks about talks" were preliminary and fragile.
* The New York Times, citing mainly Afghan sources, reported "extensive face-to-face" talks between Karzai's inner circle and high level Taliban commanders who left Pakistan with NATO's help. In one case, the Times reported, Taliban leaders boarded a NATO aircraft. Taliban leader Mullah Omar had been cut out of the talks, it said, but the hardline, al-Qaeda linked Haqqani faction was involved.
WHAT OFFICIALS SAY IN PUBLIC:
* Karzai says there have been preliminary contacts with the Taliban, although no direct negotiations. Afghan government officials acknowledge there have had on-again, off-again contacts with the Taliban over the past two years.
* Senior U.S. envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, dismissed reports of secret talks while U.S. General David Petraeus said NATO-led forces "facilitated" passage of a senior Taliban commander to Kabul. U.S. officials say that meant logistics or "moving people to meeting locations". Petraeus said contacts were not at the level of negotiations.
* U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called it "a complex effort that is just beginning" and U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Washington would do "whatever it takes".
* NATO's top Afghanistan representative, Mark Sedwill said contacts are "channels of communications" with significant Taliban but it was unclear whether they represented factions or wider groups. "It's not even yet talks about talks," he said.
* Afghan Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid rejected media reports of secret negotiations, repeating a long-standing demand for all foreign troops to leave Afghanistan.
THE KEY PLAYERS:
* AFGHAN PRESIDENT HAMID KARZAI - The Afghan leader has long advocated talks with the Taliban. Karzai recently set up a peace council to broker talks and some say he may use it to soften preconditions for negotiations, which include insurgents renouncing al Qaeda and violence and respecting the constitution.
AFGHANISTAN'S TALIBAN - Afghanistan's largest insurgent force, the Taliban were ousted from power in 2001 by U.S.-backed Afghan forces. They now have a stronghold in southern Afghanistan but are spreading their insurgency to other areas.
HEZB-I-ISLAMI GULBUDDIN - The most moderate of the main insurgent groups, Hezb-i-Islami, is run by veteran commander Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. U.S. officials say he is looking to position himself for a role in a future government. In March, the group sent a delegation to Kabul for talks, but produced no results.
HAQQANI NETWORK - The militant Haqqani network is seen as closer to al Qaeda and has a long history of ties to Pakistan's spy services. Allied with the Taliban, the Haqqani group operates in southeastern and northern parts of the country, but often works independently of the Taliban, U.S. officials say.
PAKISTAN - Vital to U.S. efforts in Afghanistan because of its contacts with militant groups, Pakistan's government says reaching a peace deal will be impossible without its help. Islamabad says it is "part of the solution", but U.S. officials say elements of Pakistan's ISI spy agency back insurgents.
SAUDI ARABIA - The host of previous talks with the Taliban, Saudi Arabia has been touted by Karzai's peace council as a possible mediator. Saudi Arabia was one of the three countries that recognised the Taliban government in the past.
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION AND NATO -- President Barack Obama's administration wants to start bringing U.S. troops back from Afghanistan from July next year and the U.S. leader and NATO allies are under pressure at home over the increasingly unpopular war. U.S. officials want negotiations to respect its "red lines" -- insurgents must renounce al Qaeda, lay down arms and respect the Afghan constitution.
(Reporting by Patrick Markey; Editing by Paul Tait and Miral Fahmy)
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