The one Iranian threat that has some relevance is terrorism. Iran has invested billions of dollars in developing a terrorist infrastructure throughout the region, and the world. Many major intelligence agencies have detected this network, which has rarely been put to work carrying out attacks. If the Iranian terror network were ordered to make an all-out effort, it's uncertain how dangerous they would be. This, of course, is another reason most of the World does not want Iran to develop nuclear power plants (a source of radioactive material for terrorists) or nuclear weapons.
Many Persian Gulf Arabs, with a sense of history and experience dealing with Iranians (there is still a large, if often illegal, trade across the Gulf), believe that the Iranians will not do anything dramatic. There are two reasons for this. First, the Iranians have a history, and it is one of pragmatism and reluctance to do crazy things. The Arabs have always considered this scary, although reassuring under the current circumstances.
Secondly, the religious dictatorship in Iran has lots of economic and political problems at home. Yes, the Iranian dictators would love to have the Israelis or Americans attack Iran, as this would divert the Iranian public for a few months, or years, from the real enemy (themselves).
Many Arab diplomats in the Gulf caution their Western counterparts to beware of Iranian attempts to goad(A long stick with a pointed end used for prodding animals.
) the West into attacking Iran. Leave the Iranians alone, the Arab wise men say, and the Iranians will do one thing they constantly do, fall into disorder and civil war. That's how the Arabs won their single great victory over the mighty Iranians, 1400 years ago, and installed Islam as the new Iranian religion.
But since then, the Iranians have gone back to being what they have always been; the neighborhood bully.
Iraq is making stronger and stronger protests against Iranian attacks on Iraqi villages along the Iranian border. These villages are used, by Kurdish separatist terrorists, as bases for operations inside Iran. Iraq does not want to get into a border war with Iran, but the constant Iranian attacks are getting embarrassing. The Iraqi press is calling for "something to be done."
On the Pakistani border, Baluchi rebels killed two of the sixteen Iranian policemen they kidnapped two weeks ago. The rebels are Sunni Moslems, and that religious difference, added to the ethnic ones (Baluchis and Iranians have been fighting for centuries) has created a bitter struggle along the border. Iran blames the U.S. for this current outbreak of tribal violence, leaving out the long and bitter history of the area. The Baluchi tribes live on both sides of the border, and the Pakistani government refuses to get involved when Iranian Baluchis hide out across the border.
Zahedan seems to be the focus of all the Iranian woes. It is the head of the Heroin flooding into Iran from the refineries of Pakistan and th Poppy production of Afghanistan.
There is also a very lively Gun smuggling trade coming in from Oman into the Iranian port of Jask on the coast. The guns are going to all anti-Persian factions in Iran along with a supply of explosives for the Civil War after the Americans and Israeli airstrikes have disemboweled(To remove the entrails from) the county. Iran may be sectioned up by ethnic divisions and hatreds for a century after America cracks its nut.
Iran is a helpless mess
Date: 12-07-08 14:50
Iran is a mess. Its OiL production infrastructure deteriorates at the rate of 10% a year. In another three to six years Iran wont be producing anything. That's the only cash flow item they have.
Iran has ten OiL refineries...only one of which produces gasoline. Every single one of them will disappear the first day in the event of war. How fast can you rebuild an OiL refinery? That's how long Iran will be in the toilet even after peace is declared.
The economy suffers from growing inflation (over 25 percent) and unemployment (ditto). One out of every four Iranians doesnt have a job. And a population of 70 million has every sixtenth person as a Heroin Addict. Prostitution is everywhere in the social fabric of a supposedly religious nation and Iran exports 300,000 whores to the Arab brothels as in Bahrein and Qatar every year. Also one tenth of all the Prostitutes in Amsterdam are Iranian.
Jobs are more available to those who behave and avoid outspoken opposition to the religious dictatorship that has ruined the economy and made Iran an outlaw state in the world community. The government uses police state tactics to harass or imprison trade unions and media that speak openly about the incompetence and cruelty of the government. Thousands of "Revolutionary Guards" and guys who can best be described as "street thugs", are on the government payroll to intimidate or assault anti-government people, wherever they can be found. This sort of thing even makes many government supporters (about 20 percent of the population, mostly Islamic conservatives) uneasy.
The street thugs called Basij are the foundation of about all the Iranian regime can depend on to fight at the front in the event of war. If the USMarines take Bandar Abbas...the Marines will have fun taking on the human waves of Banzai for Allah. Its a Marine "speciaity."
Bandar Abbas should be a fly magnet for the Basij and no one , even among the Iranians, will miss them. The Marines will land, dig in and put out wire. The Basij should provide the human sandbags piled up in front of the wire.
More and more Iranians are finding out the extent to which their oil revenue has gone to prop up Hizbollah (Shia Islamic radicals in Lebanon), Syria (run by a Shia religious minority as a hereditary dictatorship) and Hamas (Palestinian Islamic radicals dedicated to the destruction of Israel, which has impoverished and imprisoned 1.5 million Palestinians.) Iran has also been funding religious radicals in Somalia, Iraq and Afghanistan, and Iranians are not happy with all this expensive troublemaking.
ALLOW ME TO REPEAT THAT: Hamas has impoverished and imprisoned 1.5 million Palestinians. Yeah.
The Iranian government responds with more religious (lifestyle) police and increased political restrictions. This extensive troublemaking has brought about increased restrictions on Iranian access to the international banking system. This is part of a growing effort to shut down three decade old Iranian smuggling efforts (in response to embargos). That is working, and the Iranians are paying more for the smuggled goods, or not getting them at all.
Iranian financial support for Islamic terrorists is getting more expensive as well, often requiring the use of couriers carrying large quantities of cash across many international borders. This results in lots of loss (to bribes, seizure and theft).
Decades of sanctions, with no dramatic result (like a new Iranian government, or a more cooperative one) has led to more nations joining in on the sanctions, and more personalized sanctions. This angle has been taken to the extent that individual Iranian officials now have all manner of travel and financial restrictions on them. This sort of thing has an effect, if only because of the personal nature of it.
Iran is also practically defenseless. The Mullahs and military shout that they are doing just "fine", but the truth is Iran has half of what Saddam had and Saddam went down faster than Baghdad Bob.
The military has been without upgrades to its equipment since the 1980s. And the stuff Iran has dates back to the 1960's . Its all Russian surplus junk and not much else. Twenty five percent of it will misfire or blow up in the barrel.
Even then, the last new military technology received has been second rate North Korean, Chinese or Russian stuff, and not much of it. A recent shouting contest between Iran and Israel (over a threatened Israeli air raid on Iranian nuclear weapons development facilities) made it clear that Israel had real capabilities, while Iran was mostly blowing smoke.
For example, Iran was caught, once more, issuing doctored photographs of missile tests. It's also been pointed out that, Iranian attempts to halt Persian Gulf oil traffic two decades ago FAILED , and since then, Iran's relative military power has declined.
U.S. naval commanders have flat out stated that Iran would not be able to halt oil traffic. No details were given, which reflects the need to keep combat plans as secret as possible (lest the enemy have an opportunity to develop countermeasures.)
Iran in the case of war will go on Passive Defense strategy( as if they had any other choice). That means get on the floor and assume a fetal position while we systematically and methodically viciously kick you in the head, face and kidneys.
Did I mention that Iran has just ONE rail line going north /south in the entire country and they dont have any defenses on their bridges? How are the Iranian troops going to move from point A to point B? And we can see them smoking a cigarette out back with SAT.
We dont have to occupy the smoking hole either. Let em raise crops to feed everybody in the burn marks.
Ya Allah, Abdrool
Author: seraph1
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