What should our focus be? We are told that Shaikan is huge, equivalent to the distance between Heathrow and City Airport.

Author Dalesmann Date posted Wednesday 14:08 Subject What should our focus be? We are told that Shaikan is huge, equivalent to the distance between Heathrow and City Airport. Into this huge anticline we have only drilled 8 wells, which in term of the vast area covered by Shaikan is a very small number on which to assess reserves. A reserve engineer will err on the side of caution. He will calculate the volumes in a small radius around each drilled well and effectively say that within that small radius he can be certain of x million barrels which he assigns the tag P1 (Proven) he will then assign a further figure as P2 (Proven + Probably) and finally a P3 figures (Proven+ probable + possible) The area that is covered by these figures, will be small and so in this first CPR I expect a low number to be assigned to 2P Reserves. That figure is only the beginning, the starting point and that figure will rise over time. Just for emphasis I’ll say it again, this is not a final number. As further development drilling takes place in the spaces between existing wells, this uncertainty due to extreme distances will be resolved. These gaps in understanding will be filled and the 2P figure will rise over time. Determining what lies outside a small circle described around a well bore is a tricky business for the reserve engineer and his reputation will be on the line - hence I expect a conservative report. If connectivity can be proved to his satisfaction between wells then the reserve figure will also rise and this may well be the case for some of the wells at Shaikan, particularly those clustered around PF1. Without this additional insight the reserve engineer has no way of assessing if the intervals between wells are tight or the fracture system is continuous over a large area. He needs to know the properties of the fracture system, its ability to channel oil to the well bore and he needs to assess the possibility of compartmentalization in various far flung areas of the field. (I'm thinking of the Shaikan 6 area) The ultimate 2P figure will undoubtedly rise with time and with production, more insights will be available to the reserve engineer. The depletion rates will become available and these too can be fed into the equation. As an aside John G has said that the depletion rates at SH1 have been minimal – good news. Add into this mix the application of enhanced recovery methods and the 2P reserves WILL rise. Shell raised a 0.3% RF to 30% in tight fractured carbonates in Oman using steam injection. In conclusion to this section of my post I'm not at all worried about a lowish reserve figure as it is just the starting point. The figure is needed for listing. This figure also allows a considerable amount of reserve based lending to be available to the company. As well as reserves a CPR will also allocate contingent/ prospective resources. Reserves, Contingent and Prospective resources all require a recovery factor to be applied and this will be the first time that a definitive RF will have been produced. Both CR and PR will have a value, which can be also be applied to GKP. The reserve figure will in addition allows a considerable amount of reserve based lending to be available to the company should it be needed. Indeed the current talk about these first reserve figures is actually a distraction. We are at the beginning of the race towards the prize. The reserve figures will be considerably greater in the future and will increase as many more wells are sunk. Look at the figures for DNO. Their reserve figures have been dramatically elevated over time as development wells were drilled. As DNO has moved to drilling horizontal wells, DNO have also been increasing production. It is this increase in production that should be the focus for GKP PI’s, not reserves. In addition (IMHO), we have not yet been given the final OIP numbers for Shaikan. Nothing has ever been quantified for the cretaceous and additional areas to the NW I believe have still not been included in the final figures. 21 billion OIP is IMO a distinct possibility and any such addition will lift the final valuation. A major will have its own valuation and IMHO it will be applying figures for forward production and what it believes it can elevate that production over the length of the contract (which I think it would re negotiate) including the application of ERM. I therefore don’t see a low ball CPR as a problem. What we SHOULD be focusing on is the RISING production figs. 20,000 to 40,000 to 100,000 and on to 250,000 bopd +. In all this talk about reserves these figures are conveniently being lost and yet it is the production figures that should be the prime focus for investors. The reserve figures are only part of the mechanism for listing to be achieve. Concentrate on the rising production and you then get a truer valuation of the company, and a greater understanding of the potential that GKP offers to its shareholders. Kind regards Dalesmann

Kurdistan Region agrees with British company to develop Sheekhan oil field

Or per my query perhaps both with BIRs secured? I still feel there could be a difference between FDP approval and contracts signed.. In UK with the government approval there's board letters from each oil company committing to pay their equity share. Perfect time for BIRs to be included and signing the development contracts.... Another question is could there be a difference between field development approval and GKP signing a contract to develop Shaikan based on the approved FDP ie; it includes actual equities and therefore takes into account any BIRs? 29/06/2013 20:56:00 Erbil (NINA) – Kurdistan Region's Ministry of Natural Resources announced that it has concluded an agreement with Exxon Gulf Oil Company to develop Sheekhan oil field. A statement issued on Saturday, June 29, said that the Region's Government ratified Agreement by which the British Gulf Exxon carry out a plan to develop Sheekhan oil field. It added that during the coming weeks, production will be 40 thousand barrels to increase up to 150 thousands during the coming 3 years. The statement went on saying that the plan is by 2018 production reaches 250 thousand barrels a day. According to the statement, the Region is planning to increase its oil production to reach 1 million barrels a day by the year of 2015 and to reach 2 million barrels a day by the end of this decade. / End. http://www.iraqinews.com/business-iraqi-dinar/krg-concludes-contract-with-uk-firm/ Added by Ibrahim Khalil on June 29, 2013. Baghdad (IraqiNews.com) The Ministry of Natural Resources in Kurdistan Regional Government announced concluding a contract with the British Company (Gulf Keystone) to invest in Sheikhan Oilfield in Kurdistan Region.The Kurdistan Regional Government reported in statement received by IraqiNews.com on Saturday ”The Regional Government of Kurdistan ratified contracting with the British Company (Gulf Keystone) to implement a strategy aims to develop Shiekhan Oilfield.””The Oilfield will produce (40,000) Oil barrels during the upcoming weeks to increase it to be (150,000) Oil barrels during the next three years,” the statement added. \END\ Or per my query perhaps both with BIRs secured? I still feel there could be a difference between FDP approval and contracts signed.. In UK with the government approval there's board letters from each oil company committing to pay their equity share. Perfect time for BIRs to be included and signing the development contracts.... ===================== Monday, 01 July 2013, 05:32 GMT Iraq: Chevron & Total expand Kurdish drilling Globe Photo Safin Hamid By -UPI Iraq's Kurds have consolidated their growing energy sector with Chevron Corp securing a third exploration block in the semi-autonomous northern region and France's Total buying a majority stake in another. Iraq's Kurds have consolidated their growing energy sector with Chevron Corp securing a third exploration block in the semi-autonomous northern region and France's Total buying a majority stake in another. These moves intensify the Kurds' challenge to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's problem-plagued coalition in Baghdad, heightening tension between government forces and the Kurdish peshmerga fighters ? those who face death ? on Kurdistan's southern borders. The rift between the federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government in Erbil, the Kurdish capital, keeps widening, and the latest deals with Chevron and Total make the prospect of a settlement even more distant. The Iraqi Kurds, part of a stateless people numbering some 25 million across the region, have long dreamed of an independent homeland and Baghdad fears that the KRG's oil wealth will result in a unilateral breakaway that could trigger the break-up of the federal state. The deepening dispute over who will control the world's fifth largest oil reserves, which could eventually rival Saudi Arabia's, is part of a long-running blood feud between the Kurds and Baghdad that may yet erupt into open war. Such concerns have been heightened by the turmoil sweeping the entire Middle East and have dismayed the United States. Chevron said it has completed acquisition of the Qara Dagh block, which covers an area of 330 square miles southeast of Erbil. Total announced that it has bought an 80 percent stake in the Baranan block, with the remaining 20 percent held by the KRG. Total already holds a 35 percent stake in the Harir and Safen exploration zones. The move by major oil companies into Kurdistan reflects a general disenchantment with Iraq's oil sector by Western oil majors who were looking ahead a few years ago to a postwar bonanza. The move was led by Exxon Mobil in October 2011 when it acquired six exploration blocks in Kurdistan, turning its back on a major stake in the $50 billion West Qurna 1 megafield in southern Iraq. Russia's Gazprom Neft has also acquired blocks in Kurdistan in recent months. Baghdad considers these deals involving the KRG to be illegal and refuses to pay the oil companies operating in Kurdistan their share of export revenues. The Kurds say they are owed more than $3.5 billion by Baghdad, and stopped exporting through the state pipelines in December. Exxon, and later Total, broke with Baghdad because of frustration at Baghdad's bureaucratic snarls and endless delays in vital infrastructure projects, a sentiment shared by most of the international oil companies which have dealings with Baghdad. Another reason was the federal government's niggardly production-sharing terms. The KRG offered far more lucrative terms and less restrictive operating conditions. Other companies have found Iraq tough going: Norway's Statoil pulled out altogether in 2012. Unlike Exxon and Total, which stand to lose their stakes in major southern fields controlled by Baghdad, Chevron does not have any commitments in southern or central Iraq. The KRG sits on an estimated 45 billion barrels of oil, about one-third of Iraq's proven reserves, which are currently pegged at 150 billion barrels. As these oil majors have moved into Kurdistan, Turkey has stepped in with plans for a pipeline from the Kurdish zone northwards to export terminals on the Mediterranean, bypassing Baghdad's network. Turkey, which has no energy resources, is seeking to establish itself as a pivotal East-West energy hub as part of its drive to become the major power in the region. The Iraqi Kurds are currently producing around 200,000 barrels per day and exporting around 65,000 bpd by truck to world markets through Turkey. That's slotted to hit 250,000 bpd by year-end and 2 million bpd by 2019. Baghdad last week unveiled new production targets that were significantly reduced from the blueprint it unveiled several years ago, which were deemed wildly ambitious by the global energy industry at the time. But equally significantly, the new projections do not include production from Kurdistan, suggesting Baghdad may no low believe a resolution of the oil dispute with the KRG to be impossible. The increased output foreseen by the Oil Ministry ? 4.5 million bpd by the end of 2014, 9 million bpd by 2020 ? will come largely from new oil produced by the southern Iraqi megafields. Many in the industry say even that may be a stretch. =================== Picking up on Jack Diamonds' highlighting of Hess, a $22 billion U.S company also coincidentally operating in Kurdistan, which recently went through separation of the Chairman and CEO roles, the following 2 articles make fascinating reading. From 10 May 2013 Reuters http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/10/us-hesscorp-shareholders-board-idUSBRE9490IQ20130510 Extract: " Elliott Management, which owns a 4.5 percent stake in Hess, has been clamoring for change at the company since January, when it launched its campaign to seat the new directors and pitched a plan to break up the company. The hedge fund has railed against the current board, alleging that directors are too closely tied to Hess Chief Executive John Hess and that poor oversight has led to underperformance. " And from 29 January 2013 in the Wall Street Journal http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324329204578272062977108292.html Extract: < But Elliott Management said the changes Hess has proposed don't go far enough. "Divesting these downstream distractions clearly is a step that should have been taken long ago," John Pike, senior portfolio manager with Elliott, said in an interview. "This is one step and frankly a small step. The problems at Hess go much deeper." Elliott Management said it believes the current Hess board doesn't have the relevant experience and isn't independent enough to run the company. A spokesman for Hess declined to comment. > The parallels are quite striking, aren't they! And perhaps most interesting of all, from the WSJ article, I noted that "The hedge fund has put forth a slate of FIVE board nominees".... and who appears at the top of that list but a certain Rodney F Chase..... you know that guy who is currently the 'Independent Chairman' at GENEL. http://www.genelenergy.com/about-us/board-management/board-of-directors.aspx Now, is it just me or doesn't everyone seem to be strangely hand in glove with everyone else. And I thought the idea was that Independent directors ought to be COMPLETELY INDEPENDENT. I'd certainly appreciate some clarification from M&G as to precisely what they are up to ..... because I don't want a 'carbon' copy of the Hess situation being re-created here. GLA, scaramouche =============== Interesting, on 29th May GKP announces Chairman and CEO roles are to be split and a search process has commenced for an Independent Chairman. The search process presumably begins with selecting someone to do the search for you. Two weeks later on 11th June GKP announces it has engaged Odgers Berndtson to find a Non – Exec Chairman. 3 weeks and 1 day later they have done their search, interviewed candidates, done due diligence, GKP has approved the recommendation, terms have been agreed, passed it by the main IIs and the candidate has accepted. It shows what can be done by a search firm when the way has been cleared for you. The question remains is he GKPs man, M&Gs man or truly a mutually acceptable candidate. The answer to that will dictate how events unfold. Whoever is behind the appointment they appear to have selected a tough individual with the courage of his convictions. Perhaps one of our internet sleuths who was unlucky not to get a ticket for tomorrow can track down his record on Executive pay and other corporate governance matters whilst we quiz GKP on operations and other issues? Regards, Gramacho =============== M&G=Meet & Greet My first thoughts on our new chairman were, I’m afraid, slightly negative but having spent the last hour researching Mr Murray I have had time to reflect on what I now regard as a far too hasty a conclusion. I hope that I am big enough to fez up, when I have made a mistake. I think in this case I was wrong! The more I have researched Mr Murray, which is easy as there is so much about this man on the net, the more I have grown to like and respect him. He is one tough cookie! Murray is a fascinating individual. He is an adventurer. Wiki says that he joined the French Foreign Legion. It sounds romantic but I’m sure its not. He served for five years in the 2nd Foreign Parachute Regiment and has also trekked all the way to the south pole unaided. He is no spring chicken pushing 74 I’m very pleased to say he is English. Wiki and other sources show that he has a wealth of Far East experience. He has worked for Jardine Matheson. . From Wiki “Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd. often referred to as Jardines, is a British conglomerate. One of the original Hong Kong trading houses or Hongs that date back to Imperial China and the 'Opium Wars' of 1840 , as of December 2010, 41% of the company's profits were still earned in China.[1] ‘ His tenure as the MD of its engineering business lasted for 14 years followed by him starting up a firm called Davenham, a project advisory company. And here we come to the first of two links to Genel This company which was his brain child was 50% purchased by NM Rothschild and eventually sold to Li Ka-Shing . Mr Murray became an executive. From Wiki Sir Ka-shing Li, GBM, KBE,[3] JP (born 13 June 1928 in Chaozhou, China)[4][5] is a Hong Kong business magnate, investor, and philanthropist. He is considered to be the richest person in Asia. As of March 2013, according to Forbes, he is the eighth richest person in the world with an estimated wealth of US $31 billion.[6] He is the Chairman of the Board of Hutchison Whampoa Limited (HWL) and Cheung Kong Holdings as of 2008; through them, he is the world's largest operator of container terminals and the world's largest health and beauty retailer.[7] Mr Murray has considerable corporate experience. While CEO of Hutchinson he founded Orange which was sold for US$33bn. Yes that’s right 33 BILLION DOLLARS US In addition he worked for Deutsche Bank as an Executive Chairman in Asia.. If the Chinese want us, he will have his own connections. Simon also founded his own business called GEMS, an investment group. Simon Murray was or is a director or advisor to multiple large businesses (Vodafone, Vivendi, General Electric, Cheung Kong and Macquarie Bank) and former Chairman of Glencore. (Wiki) Now who do we know who is going to be acting Chairman of Glencore? I take it he knows Tony Hayward. He has oil experience as an adviser or director to CNOOC (another Chinese link) and as a purchaser of Husky Oil. It appears that Simon is currently a non executive director of Essar Energy an Indian energy group with both upstream and downstream assets and oil exploration projects in Africa and Asia. (Wiki) He has a reputation as a straight talking forceful speaker and has strong views on a number if issues, including the behaviour of banks. It implies that Simon is not afraid of speaking out, good stuff!. I wonder if he has any Yorkshire genes :0) I loved this snippet sent by a friend tonight : In 2013 he backed the initiative to provide a private navy to hound Somali pirates and his wife is no shrinking violet as she was the first woman to fly a helicopter round the world. He has received awards from both the British and French governments which is an achievement in itself ! It appears our new chairman has ample corporate know how. This combined with his Far East experience and his involvement in oil based industries makes him an attractive proposition in my book. Good choice – I wonder what will be next! Regards Dalesman ====== anti shareholder scaremongering Ilovescotch 17 There seems to have been a concerted effort by fandango, JD and others to discredit one of the largest shareholders in gkp, the M&G recovery fund, to PIs on this board. This extends from this latest promotion of the reuters article which has nothing to do with the situation in gkp, to the repeated assertion that shareholders asserting influence over the company that they own is bad news. Please do some research into what the M&G recovery fund is, what it is designed for, its governance and oversight and the record of the fund manager. This is freely available information, which is regulated heavily. Insinuating that there is something dodgy afoot here is blatant scaremongering. Research the NED recommendations by M&G yourselves and who/what this M&G fund is rather than listen to their opinions. Opinions that are in my view ill informed at best and anti shareholder interests at worst (I appreciate the irony of an opinion in this post). Listening to opinion dressed up as facts on here is bad for your wealth. Don't listen to mine, but don't listen to theirs either - do your own research and don't let people scare you into making bad decisions. ILS ============== The candidates nominated by M&G is to see that GKP is on the right track to governance. What does Lord Guthrie and Mark Hanson know about the oil industry before they were selected to be NED? What we need is NED's that will look after PI's and institutional investors interest and the last thing we want is another loan that could happen,in my humble opinion. Minority interests needs to be addressed.Institutional investors will sell down GKP if governance is seen lacking and that's the reason in my view Ballie Gifford sold down. For institutional investors to take the effort to nominate NED's shows that they care very much about their investments in GKP. If they do not make this move,do you expect PI's to make this move?You will probably need at least a hundred PI's to come together and agreeing to select a few NED's! That will be virtually quite impossible.Balance is what we need and why are they so fearful of M&G's proposal? Best wishes to all Investor 48 ============= GKP's board had the golden opportunity to put the board at the highest level of governance after the Gokana late reporting of it's disposal of GKP. Please take a closer look at GKP's 2012 accounts and look at the expenses!! We were big supporters of the management until TK transferred the 10million shares of GKP that started the SP to fall and in my view the exit of BG. Any responsible CEO,IMHO would not have done that.You can make your case,but it is unacceptable period. I rest my case. Best wishes ========== Thank you, Dalesman, for researching Simon Murray. I have just read through all the 4+ posts today having managed to stay away for a few days and I now feel depressed! I remain positive, increasingly so, about GKP as an investment and am looking forward to a stream of positive RNS announcements in the months to come but I simply cannot understand all the carping and moaning from so many PIs who have no individual or collective influence on decisions made by TK and the Board. Yes I know we have 'rights' as shareholders but we have no influence and any investment decisions we make are for our own selfish reasons. I am pleased the KRG respect Todd, I am delighted there will soon be two pipelines to carry our oil to international markets, I am very pleased we have a heavyweight new Chairman (which is what various posters were demanding but now seem totally unimpressed at the appointment) and I am perfectly happy to leave major decisions to those who understand oil and who understand Kurdistan. If I change my mind about GKP as an investment I shall sell what to me is a considerable holding and accept my profit or loss (definitely loss at the moment!) as an occupational Risk. Would Todd miss me? Of course not, why should he? He didn't tell me to buy my shares, that was my own decision and I remain confident it was a good one. I have recently added another 5000 shares and they are up almost 3%!! Wow, who is a clever boy? Seriously, I am simply as selfish as Todd in that we both want the best return on our investment - I just happen to think we will both be rewarded although I do accept he is doing much better than me at the moment. Still, I didn't stake my life and my fortune chasing the golden rainbow in Kurdistan, I was enjoying a much more straightforward life in the UK and am grateful he was not doing the same. Am I a fan of Todd? No, I have no opinion but I would like him to continue with GKP for simple strategic reasons but to be supported and kept in check by strong non - execs. That is what happens in all companies with pretensions to be a major force and I am sure that would be best for GKP now. I wish I could be in London tomorrow and am grateful in advance to anyone who is able to give up time and spend their own money attending the investor presentation.I hope it proves to be a constructive and interesting event and I look forward to reading about it. ============ Some quick snippets for Gramacho - Hours before Simon Murray was appointed to Glencore, the BBC had reported that Lord Browne (ex BP) was in line for the role, but had walked away due to corporate governance concerns. Glencore naturally denied any governance concerns and Simon Murray spoke out when appointed, saying their were ‘no questions on corporate governance’. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/8456256/Glencore-chairman-Simon-Murray-hits-back-at-Lord-Browne-over-corporate-governance-claims.html However, he didn’t help the company’s cause when this was reported: Glencore chairman Simon Murray criticised for sexism. Glencore’s new chairman has been widely condemned for making “unacceptable” and “deplorable” sexist remarks, raising further corporate governance concerns ahead of the commodity trader’s planned $60bn (£37bn) stock market debut. The mining and trading giant has already been criticised over its approach to corporate governance after Mr Murray’s botched appointment. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/8471301/Glencore-chairman-Simon-Murray-criticised-for-sexism.html Question marks were raised over his tenure at Sino Forest, with Murray and Co. accused of over-stating assets while selling down the stock. ‘Murray watched the company’s share price plunge 67 percent between June 2 and Aug 26, when the Ontario Securities Commission suspended the stock from trading, saying the company may have misstated revenue.’ Murray claimed that his interests were aligned with shareholders, but the episode was enough to deter billionaire James Bevan at CCLA Investment Management from investing in Glencore. “There’s no alignment between the interests of the controlling owners and the public shareholders,” Bevan said. “We continue not to hold Glencore shares and certainly won’t consider purchases until this is now fully resolved, and Simon Murray’s position is clear and confirmed to be fine,” Bevan said in an email yesterday. “If it isn’t, his position as Chairman is untenable.” A bigger loss, should the allegations be proved, would be to his credibility as an independent director. “When you’re a company director, your reputation is always on the line,” says David Webb, a shareholder activist and former director of the Hong Kong stock exchange whose Webb-site.com exposes corporate shenanigans. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-31/murray-transforms-glencore-from-marc-rich-legacy-with-foreign-legion-vigor.html In his defence - and maybe a hint at how he intends to work with GKP – ‘Murray says he plans to use his energy to work with Glasenberg to improve Glencore’s image. Murray says he and Glasenberg both know their roles. “Ivan’s is to run the business, and mine is to run the board-- and the board functions in great part to look after the interest of shareholders,” Murray says. “That’s all about good governance. Ivan’s the sort of guy who will listen. He has not run a public company and is very conscious of the fact.” Let’s hope that Todd is the sort of guy who will listen to Murray. He has not run a multi-billion oil producing company and is hopefully reminded by Murray of that fact. ==========================

The ex Mrs Kozel ( Ashely Kozel )

Just to repeat for the umpteenth time the RNS states
16:00
Re: The ex Mrs Kozel

thechelskikid
'As part of the divorce settlement the Settlement Shares will be transferred to Mrs Kozel free and clear of any restrictions on their sale other than an orderly market condition on any resale, by Mr Kozel.

A further announcement will be made once the transfer of the Settlement Shares has been completed.'

We have had no announcement. Any comments on her selling now are pure conjecture and not based on known facts.

---
15:56
Re: The ex Mrs Kozel

he-who-dares
11UP
There will be sellers at every stage of the ascent or descent....it's a fact it's a market.

Not everyone watches the GKP chat board everyday like their life depends on it.

On a big rally up they'll be profit taking like we are seeing now....I don't know why people get offended by it so easily - that's right, because GKP has become personal to so many.

The fact of the matter is that if there is value in a share compared to perceived value then there will always be buyers, and eventually the share price will find its way to where it needs to be.

If it doesn't - it means that not as many people as you would hope held the view that its value was the same as what you or I do.

People need to stop worrying about it.

I would imagine Ashely Kozel has sold shares recently, I don't know, but it would be common sense...she will be advised to that is for sure....sell a percentage, hold the rest, and dispose of them all the way up.

That would be sound advice for anyone, especially one who is a wealthy person already, it is prudent.

I wish people on this board would stop taking everything so personally....investors talk of a £53 take over - it's never gonna happen, and the bottom line is looking at the way most are worrying between £3.70 and £3.80 - you'll have a heart attack or have creamed your pants before it gets there.

I'm going to treat myself to a break from this board, as there really is little of quality getting posted of late....Mikey's doing a good job....but there's not a lot else until a good RNS comes along.

The post this morning saying someone will pay £53/share is utter tosh. Noone in their right mind is gonna pay $90m for a company with risk placed on their contracts (no matter what you think there is still an opportunity for buyers to place risk)....

The value of Tesco's I think was mentioned.......it's just not real.

We shall be taken out for a very healthy upside from where we currently are...IMO it has to happen before August subject to SH6 TD + 30 days and the submission of the FDP.

We have a finite time line....it will start a bidding war....I hope!! That is not a given, but I hope.

I expect us to reach double digits...but I think anything past £10+ is going to be a good result...not because I believe that is fair value, but look at the game....it's a fair result.

Cheers,
HWD

===

Where is the RNS to state they have been transferred to Mrs Kozel? Ohhh I forgot you don't deal in facts you tit.

--

17:46
Re: The ex Mrs Kozel

scaramouche
18UP
Pure Speculation

Ms K is not daft (foolish), and knows the value of the shares she holds, so why should she need to sell them, when she got far more than the shares, plus she works as a highly paid Lawyer who will have plenty of work from the Publicity

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mikey,

I COMPLETELY agree with you.

Ashley Kozel is apparently a very intelligent lawyer in her own right, and she probably knows a good deal more than we do (with the exception perhaps of BBBS!) what the true value of GKP shares should be.

She has only recently agreed to accept 17 MILLION shares (2% of GKP) as her share in the divorce settlement which have already gained in value by some £20 MILLION - and TK has ended up with largely options, some of which will cost him about 375p each to take up.

So, I am sure that Ashley will have a pretty shrewd idea that her shares could still be worth several times what they are at present.... when TK one day issues his recommendation to accept an offer from Exxon, Chevron, Sinopec or whoever.

With this in mind, on what basis would she seriously consider selling significant numbers of shares (even in tranches) until she NEEDS to?

Yes, there is always the political risk - but with Exxon and Total now in Kurdistan, and the likes of Chevron and ConocoPhillips allegedy holding talks with the KRG about joining them,there are almost certain to be offers coming in soon for GKP or Shaikan.... at a long way above the current SP.

And if someone like Ashley knows that the valuation on GKP would be at least double-figure billions, I rather doubt that there will be too many thoughts of selling at anywhere near the present value.

Remember too that we are still only about two-thirds of the way towards what JG told us the other week that Shaikan itself is worth based on information already known.... and that implies based on 10.5 billion OIP! BBBS too has only just explained a couple of days ago how he believes that Shaikan could have nearly TREBLE that amount of oil.

To sell in tranches all the way up is surely the mentality of someone who is either a trader (and somehow I don't see Ashley keeping too close an eye on L2) or someone who has no real confidence in GKP achieving what TK clearly expects. And I cannot see Ashley falling into either category, can you?

Indeed, some have advocated that Ashley Kozel would be a suitable NED and essentially well-placed to represent the views of both herself and the shareholders like ourselves. While I strongly suspect that she would not be interested in such a role, it would be one way to help ensure that any low-ball offer which might be against shareholder interests could be kept at bay!

Hmmm.... the more I think about it the more I rather like that proposition!!

Incidentally, the previous NED, Jeremy Asher, whose place Ashley could presumably fill, now apparently holds more shares than he did when he was the Non Executive director for GKP.

So, my suspicions are that those who really do understand the value of GKP are actually inclined to hold on rather more tightly than you might imagine to their own Golden Tickets... irrespective of how wealthy they might be and how high the alleged risk is sometimes stated to be.

GLA, scaramouche

---------------

Author MikeyAdmin View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 16:38
Subject Daily Volumes
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 97 times.
Message
Auction, This is one I don't want to miss.
409p,...........8,000
409p...........23,137
Auction between 525 and 391.5p
409.25p......23,705
408.5p.......38,530
409p..........38.530
409p...........40,633
408.5p,,,,,,.50,647
come on
410p..........50,829
411p.........52,719, happy, but not above 412p


LSE, 13,304,070

AT's, 7,399,584

Trades, 4,146

UT, 52,719

SP, 411p

Buys, 7,450,263
Sells, 5,887,068
Others -8,261

I don’t know what to expect today, so lets see

Nice Auction, started at 390p, SP opened at 385p, UT 103,980, then started a nice rise breaking through the minor Resistances and the 1st Resistance at 388.25p, where it was held up by 3 x 150,00 Orders @ 390p, totalling over 520,000 @ 390p on the Ask.

8.45am the 450,000 @ 390p Order and the rest was taken, and trading got into a frenzy, so the SP pushed on to 400p, where another bit of Resistance was met at 403.25p, which it pushed through by 9.30am

10.18am. And the SP had hit its New Day high of 417p, when the MM’s stopped it, or profit takers entered taking the SP back down to 407p.
414p was the last high so a natural profit taking area, but it went 3p past.

10.30am, after looking for direction, the SP again advanced onto the 414p area, where it halted for a while as trading slowly down and profit takers came again, taking the price back to 407.5p.

10.40am. SP 412.5p, Volumes 5,856,365, AT’s 3,971,148

10.45am, SP 406.5p, as profit takers or MM’s again stopped the SP at 414p
Decision time, and its down to 405p
10.50am, and 403.25p turned support, which it bounce off, and again, then poked its nose under it, then back up by 11.00am.

Will it hold above 402.25p

11.05am, SP 401.5p, crunch time, and the traders can’t decide
11.15am, and the SP had been down to 395p, where the 1st Resistance had turned Support and the MM’s waited to fill their boots, then back up to 399.5p

So IMO, the fall was engineered by the MM’s following the charts to replenish their stock, phew, better than being in the hands of just a bunch of traders.

11.20am, SP 399.9p
11.25am, SP 398p, trading has slowed down
11.30am, SP 400p, up 18.25p, (+ 4.78%), Volumes 7,245,030, AT’s 4,591,448, MC £3,417,380,000.

Once more, after the SP had been released, a feeding frenzy had happened, and now calm has returned.

Sorry, spaying my Hub parts now, so away some of the time
11.50am, SP 402p, a more steady off we go again, Volumes 7,526,979, AT’s 4,695,373

Just a thought.
Up to 417p, then down to 395p in the morning, MM’s fill their boots for when the US wakes up, and it starts all over again.

12.05pm, SP 403.25p, and I’m having a brew
12.30pm, SP 406.75p, Volumes 8,008,732
1.00pm, SP 404p
1.30pm, SP 399.9p, are the US around, come on guys.
1.50pm, SP 398.9p, Volumes 8,913,610.…….. AT’s 5,357,999.
AT and O trade Orders quietly going through, though not in large quantities.
2.10pm, SP 401.5p, Volumes 8,988,341, another brew and a butty
2.40pm, SP 398.5p, Ask side has risen to 1.488k, Sellers coming or being forced out, so maybe down to 395p again then bounce
2.45pm, SP 395p, Buyers returning
2.48pm, SP 398p, bounce again off the 395p Support,
2.50pm, SP 398.5p
3.10pm, SP 400p
3.15pm, SP 406p, Volumes 9,935,033
3.25pm. SP 406p, Volumes 10,045,313
3.30pm, SP 407.9p, Volumes 10.148,849
3.35pm, SP 407.4p, Volumes 10,647,548, and 2 x 100,000 @ 408.5p reported
3.45pm, SP 409.5p, Volumes 10.887,070, moving quite fast now, quite possibly on for a finish around 412p
3.50pm, SP 409.75p, after reaching 4010.5p, Volumes 11,188,088
3,55pm, SP 411.25p, Volumes 11,364,696
4.05pm, SP 411.4p, Volumes 11,531,850
4.15pm, SP 413.4p,Volumes 12,409,662, and the final coat of gloss on my hub, + brew made, 414p high from Monday stopping it rising further
Go baby go,
4.20pm, SP 412.9p, Volumes 12,555,911
4.21pm, SP 413.25p,
4.23pm, SP 410.75p, Volumes 12,839,130
4.25pm, SP 410.5p, Volumes 12,957,784
4.26pm, SP 411.25p, Volumes 13,019,554
4.27pm, SP 412p,
4.28pm, SP 412.6p, Volumes 13.127,451
4.29pm, SP 412p, Volumes 13,197,850

Up to the top for the Auction

A Week or game of two halves IMO

On Monday the SP hit 414p, closing at 397p, then IMO the MM’s received several large Orders, took it down to the 380’s and below to force sellers & profit takers, mop up their sells and filled their Orders in three days. Then they released the SP, leaving behind one AT order of 450,000 @ 390p, which was taken quite quickly by the person intended for IMO.

Anyone who doesn’t think it’s the MM’s that mainly control the SP, live in cloud cuckoo land IMO, as one only needs to watch the MM movements to know its true, especially when O trade Orders are being filled.

Today the MM’s just sat back, buying and selling to feed the O and AT demand when needed, finally stopping the rise at 414p to replenish their books on the way back down 395p

Surprisingly, all the trades above 50,000 have been AT trades, with one sell over 100,000, and one buy over 100,000, so I guess all the large trades over the last few days where Buys.
2 x 100,00 @ 408.5p came in at 15,33pm, possible the reason for the last fall to 395p

All I can say is a quiet wow, as I still have all my T20’s open from under 300p with 7 days to go, so I’m very happy and chuffed as 10. Roll on next week and higher.

Bit for everyone today, buy, rise and sell for traders then get back in for the next stage.
And a rise and hold higher for the investors.

Well done GKP, chuffed for everyone, :0 only the strong will survive till the end.

GLA. Just Hold.

Mikey

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Former BP boss earns £12m from Iraqi oil venture

Tony Hayward pockets first tranche of payments from Kurdistan oil venture with Genel Energy reddit this Terry Macalister guardian.co.uk, Friday 20 January 2012 18.53 GMT Former BP chief Tony Hayward. Photograph: Suzanne Plunkett/Reuters Former BP boss, Tony Hayward will pocket more than £12m in a first tranche of payouts less than a year after he set up his own company and then bet on Kurdistan being the next big province for the oil industry. Hayward who left his old employers with a £10m pension pot after the Gulf of Mexico blowout, exercised his rights to a 6.67% stake in the Genel Energy business along with his partners Nat Rothschild and two other executives. The four Genel backers are entitled to a windfall nudging £160m as they swap their "founder" shares in the Vallares investment vehicle they established in return for ordinary shares in Genel. Hayward and the other founders of Vallares will not be able to sell their shares until 21 November under a lock-in arrangement. The oil investors who had poured £100m of their money into the business could win a further payout. They still control 'C' class shares that entitle them to 15% of any gains should Genel shares rise above a specified price. A statement from Genel pointed out the initial investment was "risk capital" that left them facing a loss of up to £20m had they not completed a successful acquisition within a specified time frame. Vallares is still sitting on nearly $2bn (£1.6bn) raised in an initial flotation last year because the cash was not required to merge with the Turkish-based Genel, the largest oil producer in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Genel, with stakes in six oilfields in northern Iraq says those interests amount to a potential 356m barrels of proven oil reserves. Genel shares rose 1.2%to 855p still less than the £10 float price. Iraq: ShaMaran relinquishes Pulkhana, Arbat blocks Social Media Tools Share Print Email Save HOUSTON, Jan. 19 01/19/2012 By OGJ editors ShaMaran Petroleum Corp., Vancouver, BC, has relinquished its 60% interest in the Pulkhana and Arbat blocks in Iraq's Kurdistan region for a consideration of $25 million payable to the Kurdistan Regional Government. The relinquishment will allow ShaMaran to focus on Atrush and Taza, considered to be its most prospective blocks. Pulkhana and Arbat were not as prospective as anticipated, ShaMaran said. General Exploration Partners Inc. and Marathon Petroleum KDV BV plan to complete a 3D seismic survey in the current quarter over an April 2011 discovery on Atrush. The plan to drill an appraisal well in the second quarter and later install an early production system. ShaMaran owns 33.5% of GEP, which has 80% interest in Atrush, and Marathon has 20%. Meanwhile, the first well on Taza, formerly Block K42, is to be drilled in the 2012 second quarter. Oil Search Iraq Ltd. operates Taza with 60% interest, and ShaMaran and the KRG each hold 20%. ShaMaran noted that more than 30 mid to large international oil companies are exploring Kurdistan, which lies within the northern extension of the Zagros fold belt.