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Monday, June 24, 2013

The chairman has a setback...

(hitler video) http://youtu.be/-PtnF3kmSUo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PtnF3kmSUo&feature=youtu.be MBO=Management Buy-Out Having been through 2 MBO's with the same company I have some experience. IMO if TK can raise the funds for a low ball offer he would be massively leveraged which would be fine for the initial take over but in doing so he would have 'sold his soul to the devil' and would find it difficult to obtain further funding in the short/medium term for further drilling/pipeline construction etc. Any venture capitalist consortium will 'dictate' to him what he can or cannot do including stringent monitoring of directors' remuneration (TK's 'baby' will undergo an 'adoption' very quickly by the VCs=venture capitalist ). They will definitely ensure they have 1 or maybe 2 directors on the board. If Shaikan was sold after the MBO he would be even more over leveraged on his initital borrowing since the asset would have been taken into account on the first call. To use the sale funds for FDP would be a case of double counting. Er indoors If TK thinks he is being given a hard time now wait till he has to ask if he can go to the toilet!! Er Indoors monyash
Miny: on greenhill, perhaps i could give a reason other than my initial thoughts "this lot are amateurs" who will continue to provide jam tomorrow rather than getting stuck in and providing it now. Once exports begin, the 30 year count down of our PSC contract is ignited. We cannot then turn the clock back. It is mosr likely that local markets are all sown up with those who have seen their exports halted. This leaves very little room for GKP to sell their oil locally apart from the possibly current 5,000bopd. GKP might be able to increase that figure somewhat, but i doubt they could. Sell 20.000bopd to an already saturated local market. Would it not make sense if we are to sell Shaikan to keep our asset in pristine condition with the full 30 yrs intact. Drilling SH7 and preparing for the "big sale" makes sense to me. In the meantime if the export taps are switched back on then GKP should be ready to export 20.000 to 25.000bopd from PF1 and not too far from completion of PF2. Ideally it might be better for shareholders if the exports were delayed further due to getting the O&GL approved and both exports and the O&GL are all underway by the year end. By that time IF this management are half as good as Todds wage package we will be sittiing waiting to export 40.000 to 50.000bopd from day one of our PSC. Perhaps i am being too optimistic on both fronts but from now on the WHOLE BOD must be aware that they all share some responsibility on wage structures and performance as well as how the company is viewed by the City. To date Todd Has now officially in my eyes caused a major loss of confidence in GKP. There must be casualties in this fiasco and strong decisive moves to block his wage package is essential. There is much to be excited about but there are concerns we should be concerned with too. Until Todd is reigned in we remain in danger of been fleeced by an excessive greedy CEO. There are i am sure skills that Todd posseses that are unique and could prove to be lucrative to shareholders, but it is his shady, greedy side that is currently shining like a lighthouse beacon. All IMHO. Miny ================ "Sonangal Sinopec International Ltd, a wholly-owned unit of CNPC, will acquire Houston-based Marathon's 10 percent stake on the Angolan field called Block 31, it said in a statement late on Friday." and then "The Angolan Block 31 field, operated by BP, has estimated proved and probable reserves of 533 million barrels, CNPC said, adding that it would hold a stake of 15 percent in the block when the transaction was completed." It actually means that CNPC already had 5% before this transaction and now aquiruing additional 10% for $1.52Bn. Not bad, considering 53.3mbls will cost around $5.3Bn if bought on the spot market, so saving of over 70%. Of course it will be a tax component to Angola as well, but we don't really have those figures on hand to evaluate their PSC.
Iraq's oil exports to Turkey stopped since three days due to leakage Monday, 24 June 2013 12:44 Shafaq News / A Navigation source said on Monday that oil pumping through Kirkuk - Ceyhan pipeline from Iraq to the Turkish coast on the Mediterranean Sea is stopped since Friday evening. Reuters quoted a navigation source in a statement briefed by “Shafaq News” as saying that “supplies are stopped due to a leakage”. The Iraqi oil exports have declined to 2.484 million barrels per day in May from 2.62 million barrels per day in April due to a slowdown in shipments of Kirkuk after the repeated attacks on the pipeline and maintenance work in the south. Oil flow from Iraq to Turkey has stopped through Kirkuk - Ceyhan pipeline in May and April because of the repeated attacks by armed groups. Kirkuk pipeline transfers oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean. Iraq seeks to double its oil production over the next three years and aims in the long term to pump 12 million barrels per day.

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