Another gem of 2013: A Compendium of Games

Author: scaramouche Thursday 08:03, Jan 4th/ 2013 A Compendium of Games.... Good morning everyone and Happy New Year Year. I hope you all enjoyed the festive break. How things have changed! I had the pleasure of watching some of the younger members of the family enjoying their X-boxes and merrily killing off a seemingly endless array of monsters and mutants. ((Mutant 1. An individual, organism, or new genetic character arising or resulting from mutation. 2.Slang. One that is suggestive of a genetic mutant, as in bizarre appearance or inaptitude.)) It was odd – when they were doing so, I couldn’t help imagining Rex, Eric, and those parasitic creatures sitting behind them in those virtual guises; and I couldn’t help thinking that perhaps Todd would simultaneously be doing much the same…. as he contemplated “successfully removing the uncertainty created by Excalibur”. In the old days of course, many of us had no particular desire for an X-box and would have been perfectly happy with a ‘compendium of games’ – including perhaps chess, draughts, snakes and ladders, backgammon and tiddlywinks… plus of course a couple of packs of playing cards. Hmmm…Given the ‘games’ that are often so apparent where GKP are concerned, I sometimes wonder whether some of those listed are perhaps strangely pertinent to our investment, or whether we are often gripped by a kind of X-box ‘virtual’ reality. Anyway, one observation from the posts of recent days is how many on here seem to be working themselves up into something of a frenzy where the imminent ‘Field Development Plan’ is concerned. I must admit that it bothered me a bit too, but then I started considering how both Todd and John G had apparently reacted in the last few days of the pre-Christmas phase of the court case – their ‘body language’ so to speak. Both had apparently been pretty relaxed, and by all accounts John G had even been cracking a few amusing one-liners, despite the very close proximity of the deadline for the submission of the FDP…. End of January 2013. So, if our two most senior Directors are NOT especially concerned, why I wondered is it that so many of the people on this board are? Perhaps, I mused, it is that some people just like the idea of stirring it a little when deadlines loom, and we have not been made aware of the exact current state of play. Indeed, I came to the conclusion that, if TK and JG were not concerned, it meant that they regarded meeting the FDP deadline as something which was totally under control and:- 1.They had complete confidence in those involved in preparing the plans and were happy to maintain a watching brief (Note: why wouldn’t they have, bearing in mind that they have had many months and a substantial team of people working on it, as far as I understand?) 2.The court case timetable (and possible wait until June until Judge Clarke’s verdict is delivered in full), although undoubtedly extremely annoying, was unlikely to have any significant detrimental effect on GKP’s operational activities (or possible deals under discussion). 3.The plan(s) due to be submitted are sufficiently ‘adaptable’ to be able to cater for whatever scenario might arise over the coming months. Of course, it is always possible that both TK and JG are just very accomplished actors and are really extremely worried about how things are panning out… but I will leave some of the GKP detractors to make the case for that. IMHO, that will be rather like trying to make the case for Excalibur having a realistic claim for 30% of GKP’s assets! So, if I am right, and neither TK nor JG are worried about the imminence of the FDP (and Jonathan Gaisman does not appear to have been working himself up into a frenzy about it either) can we deduce anything else regarding time-frames? Well, I was looking back at some of the presentations earlier in the year and trying to piece the ‘key dates’ together, to see if this might throw some light on the situation. 1. According to the 28 May 2012 ‘Results and forward strategy presentation, GKP will “Upgrade of the existing Shaikan EWT facility and a new Shaikan-2 EWT facility to increase test production in 2nd half 2012 and 1st half 2013 to up to 40,000 bopd”. http://www.gulfkeystone.com/uploads/2011_results_presentation_28may2012.pdf Then, on p.7 of the half-yearly report presentation of 12 September 2012, we learned that “Construction of two new early production facilities (PF-1 and -2, formerly known as EWT-1 and -2) is nearing completion, with the first unit due to become operational in January 2013 and the second by the end of the first quarter 2013.”, and on p.10 that “Two new Shaikan early production facilities (PF-1 and -2) to increase production in 1st half 2013 to up to 40,000 bopd” offered the potential for an important revenue stream. http://www.gulfkeystone.com/uploads/2012halfyearreportpresentation.pdf So, it seems to me that GKP will be busy with EXISTING PLANS up to 30 June 2013, and a court case verdict in June 2013 would have no serious impact on those plans . 2. After the FDP has been submitted by the end of January 2013, there is supposed to be some input from the KRG, perhaps in the person of Adnan Samarrai (who has been wearing a different hat since March 2012, but knows both GKP and Kurdistan inside out), and therefore no doubt some time for amendments to be made to the plan. Given the highly charged political arena that we are invested in, there is also presumably some scope to delay any ‘major’ announcements until all the I’s have been dotted and t’s crossed in relation to such a hugely important undertaking as the large-scale development of Shaikan ... allowing the OPTIMUM time to be selected. Again, I therefore see no particular reason why a June verdict on the Excalibur case should seriously impact those timescales. 3.And on p10 of the Erbil presentation from last month, we see a rather loose reference to other activities planned sometime in 2013: a. Explore Shaikan deep undrilled horizons with Shaikan-7 b. Start development drilling c. Construction of a pipeline to export Shaikan crude http://www.gulfkeystone.com/uploads/gulfkeystonepetroleum--kurdistan-iraqog--3december2012.pdf So, once again, although sooner is obviously better, there are no obvious indications that a possible court case verdict in June 2013 will adversely impact GKP’s operational activities or those of any possible suitor. My conclusion, FWIW, is therefore that the fact that the FDP is due for submission at the end of this month is NOTcausing GKP any great degree of concern, so it should not worry us unduly either. Moreover, while we would all like to know its contents (as it might offer some clues as to what TK’s latest thinking is and whether it has been designed exclusively for GKP or with a super-major in mind), it is perfectly conceivable that 2 options are being put forward (or one that could easily morph into an alternative after the earliest phase of development has taken place, or a super-major comes on board).... and that it is not a simple case of Plan A or Plan B as is commonly portrayed. Yes, the FDP is a very important milestone - but the reaction of JG and Todd only a few weeks before it is due for submission, well aware it seems that the conclusion of the trial might take a little longer than originally envisaged, is also very telling IMHO. The share price is of course a huge source of frustration for us all but, as seems always to have been the case with this share, patience it seems is key. The ‘games’ will of course shortly recommence, and I have no doubt to witness the normal charade of ‘snakes and ladders’ while it all plays out. But for me, all that really matters, is the next move in this most strategic game of chess, and who, when the cards are on the table… will be set to play the KING. (Some will of course tell you that it is pure guesswork... and little more than a matter of rolling the dice. Not surprisingly, I would have to disagree. Have you seriously proposed that TK, JG and the legal team are confident about the FDP because JG cracked a few jokes at court?!!! That's one almighty leap.) ------------------------------------------- No bonobo77, I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying that 'games' are played here every day, and that perhaps it is better to focus on the bigger picture and how the Board of Directors appear to be seeing the current situation.... rather than worrying about every movement up (ladder) or down (snake). Not that I'm calling anyone here a snake. I see where you are coming from... LOL But I think you missed out Darcy's comments.... DB: Bruno-bo - but I think you have missed the point entirely. Scara, there was plenty of content, the interpretation was obviously entirely your own, it flowed, the transitions were good, with plenty of heel-turns. I like to see that. But, perhaps to some the real 'message' might have been lost ..... I sensed that it was to focus on the bigger picture, the potential transformation, what was really happening... and not to allow yourself to get distracted by the constant noise emanating from various dark corners of the floor. Despite your name, I don't think you are really cut out for the Fandango. Perhaps instead, it should be the last Tango..... in Paris! - Hi Sicilian_Kan, I very much appreciate you taking the time to respond in some detail to my post. I will try to respond more fully at the weekend but, until then, just a few points.... I see this 'trial' as having originally had 3 possible objectives for Excalibur and their funders - I won't call them 'backers' as I now suspect that we will never know who might really have been behind them: 1) A clear WIN for Excalibur - I believe that the UBS email trail has put an end to that possibility, having been extremely damning to the Excalibur case. 2) An early SETTLEMENT at a very substantial level (your 'up to 5%' sounds about right) - the fact that we have now reached the original deadline for the conclusion of the trial, and that there have been no signs of GKP or TKI conceding anything to Excalibur tells me that this possibility has long since passed. 3) To DRAG the case out for as long as possible, with the aim of damaging GKP in its other activities, possibly allow someone to increase their stake in GKP at very low levels, or enable the SP to be played like a fiddle. Around £350 million knocked off the market cap since the start of the court case suggests that option 3 has already succeeded to a large extent, and a great deal of damage will have been done to honest shareholders in the process, let alone the possibility of a seriously impacting upon potential negotiations with suitors over asset sales, T/O etc. So, I'm sorry but I cannot abide the notion of 'blackmail' succeeding, and IMHO that is what option 3 amounts to. The fact that Excalibur have not already conceded after failing with options 1 and 2 suggests to me that they always intended to damage GKP. I am very glad that GKP shows no sign of backing down to such appalling abuse of the Justice system. To me, to 'settle' now would be the equivalent of giving in to this black-mail and prevent Judge Clarke from issuing a verdict that might send would the Wempens and their parasitic funders skulking off into some dark corner where they belong. NO, settlement is not for me, and IMHO should not be for those who regard JUSTICE as sacrosanct either. Finally, if RW and EW wanted a finder's fee they should have thought about this when they started an action claiming 30% of GKP's assets and damaging our company for the last 2 years. Or when apparently offered one several years ago. While I agree with much of what you say, my stance on this issue remains exactly the same as it always was, and many investing friends of mine hold exactly the same view. To settle would, quite simply, be wrong! GLA, scaramouche AIMHO and please DYOR. GLA, scaramouche ========== =============== was obscured within this masterpost from Gramacho: http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AGKP.L&display=discussion&threshold=0&action=detail&id=9009903 Q. Has there been any evidence to date in the production history that the matrix will not be able to feed the fracture system adequately and sustain the high initial rates seen on tests? A. Firstly we have not seen a single bit of depletion yet from any of our production testing. We have produced intermittently over a period of a year, not a single psi of depletion and that tends to indicate that there might be some contribution from the matrix. If you were just bleeding a fracture system you tend to see depletion quickly. Ahem, 'over a period of a year, not a single psi of depletion' and you expect me to believe that this has nothing to do with the aquifer? If I can think in a certain way, then others can too. Who will blink first - CJ's evaluation experts - those currently in the vicinity of GKP's blocks - or those in the vicinity of Kurdistan? The last referenced may be quite important with regard to the aquifer. IMO. GLA, BBBS P.S. Another minor piece of 'that' =========== Well BBB's CJ just passes onto investers information that he considers in PI's interests to to know. Of course it dose not imply those figures worked on and re-rated will follow, they are just figuers worked on by people who actually know what oil in one location is worth to a Soveriegn Nation, and they are in my opinion a dam site more switched on than any broker or financial Institution who put out reports /ratings on share prices, like hold, upgrade to buy or sell. Its my opinion after having contact with these people over a number of years, they actually are so far ahead of others, I would choose to accept there figuers, as they dont look 3 years or 5 years they look long term. They work out what resources will be needed in the future to drive world economies over say 10 to 25 years, what those resources actually help manafacture and run economy wise. My other observation would be no existing PSC terms are set in stone and always open for negotiation, as to the price a Major or Sovereing Nation will pay is upto to them, and then it maybe a Sovereign Nation may have Majors it hopes will secure an assset such as oil in one location. Hope all had a Good Christmas Regards CJ The above are observations only, and as I hold no shares , should not be considered as ramp or de-ramp, I hope thats clear . =========================== Kurdistan starts independent crude oil exports Link this Stocks Genel Energy PLC GENL.L 771.02p +5.00+0.66% 01/07/2013 Tue Jan 8, 2013 12:42am IST * First crude from Taq Taq oilfield reaches Turkish port * Fresh tender for Kurdish condensate imminent * KRG oil exports via Baghdad-controlled pipeline halted By Julia Payne and Peg Mackey LONDON, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Kurdistan has begun to export crude oil directly to world oil markets through Turkey, industry sources said on Monday, which poses the biggest challenge yet to Baghdad's claim to full control over Iraqi oil. The export of crude, in addition to small volumes of niche condensate, demonstrates the semi-autonomous region's growing frustration with Baghdad as it moves towards ever greater economic independence, the sources said. The volume of oil involved is small, but industry sources said the direct export is highly symbolic as the KRG seeks more financial independence from Baghdad. The first crude has been delivered by truck to the Turkish port of Mersin on the Mediterranean, shipping and industry sources said. "The KRG gave us permission to start crude exports from the Taq Taq oilfield," Genel Energy President Mehmet Sepil said in an interview. Control of oil is at the heart of a dispute between Iraq's Arab-led central government and the autonomous region run by ethnic Kurds in the north. Baghdad insists the central government has the sole constitutional right to export oil. In an apparent renewed dispute over payment, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) halted shipments through the Baghdad-controlled Iraq-Turkey pipeline last month. The KRG began exporting its own very light oil, or condensate, independently to world markets in October by truck to a Turkish port, where it was sold via an intermediary. Now the Kurdish region is adding crude from the Taq Taq oilfield, where London-listed explorer Genel Energy has a stake, to its slate of exports. A fresh cargo of condensate is also ready to sell through an imminent tender, said a shipping source. Industry sources reckon around 15,000 barrels per day (bpd)of condensate from the Khor Mor gas field are reaching the Toros terminal in Turkey. Crude oil exports from Taq Taq, for now, are also small. In exchange, Turkey is sending back refined products to the Kurdish region, which is short of fuel. Over the past year and a half, Kurdistan has upset Baghdad by signing deals directly with oil majors such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron, providing lucrative production-sharing contracts and better operating conditions than in Iraq's south. The KRG says its right to grant contracts to foreign oil firms is enshrined in the Iraqi constitution, which was drawn up following the 2003 invasion that ousted Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein. But payments to foreign operators in Kurdistan are getting caught up in the long-running spat over land and petroleum rights. Baghdad said last month it would not pay oil firms operating in Kurdistan because the region had failed to export the volume of crude it pledged under a deal struck in September. That agreement stipulated that Kurdistan would pump crude through the Baghdad-controlled Iraq-Turkey pipeline in return for payment. An export target of 200,000 bpd was set for the last two months of 2012, and Kurdish authorities pledged to raise exports to 250,000 bpd in 2013. But exports of Kurdish oil have been halted since around mid-December, after nearing the 200,000 target early in the month. Baghdad transferred an initial sum of 650 billion Iraqi dinars ($560 million) to the KRG. But a second payment is still pending for the foreign companies in Kurdistan. ===============