BAGHDAD, April 2 | Mon Apr 2, 2012 6:15am EDT
BAGHDAD, April 2 (Reuters) - Iraq's Oil Minister Abdul Kareem Luaibi said on Monday Exxon Mobil had sent a second letter to the oil ministry confirming its decision to freeze its oil deals with the Kurdish autonomous region.
Oil major Exxon announced a Kurdish exploration deal last year, angering Baghdad, which is locked in a dispute with the Kurdistan Regional Government over control of oil in Iraq's northern areas.
================
ABOT_dusk2 resized
Tankers dock at the Al-Basra Oil Terminal, the principal export point for Iraqi oil. (BEN LANDO/Iraq Oil Report)
By Ben Van Heuvelen of Iraq Oil Report
Published April 2, 2012
Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region cut off its crude exports Sunday over accusations that Baghdad has broken an agreement to split revenues, ending more than a year of tenuous cooperation with the central government.
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) announced its decision on the same day Iraq's federal Oil Ministry said it had exported a landmark 2.316 million barrels per day (bpd) in March -- the most prolific month since 1990.
The ministry's triumph underscored the strength ...
UPDATE 2-Iraqi Kurdistan halts oil exports over pay dispute
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Sun Apr 1, 2012 3:15pm EDT
* Baghdad says payments have been approved
* Oil rights at heart of long-running dispute
By Patrick Markey
BAGHDAD, April 1 (Reuters) - Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region halted its oil exports on Sunday, accusing the central government in Baghdad of failing to make payments to companies working there in the latest clash in their long-running dispute over oil rights.
The disagreement heightens tensions in a broader dispute between Iraqi Arabs and ethnic Kurds over contested land, political autonomy and oil that has become a potential flashpoint for Iraq since the last U.S. troops left in December.
Baghdad says only the central government has the right to export oil, but the Kurdistan Regional Government says that it can control petroleum in its region, a disagreement that is disrupting payments to companies like Norway's DNO.
"After consultation with the producing companies, the ministry has reluctantly decided to halt exports until further notice," Kurdistan's Ministry of Natural Resources said in a statement.
"There have been no payments for 10 months nor any indication from the federal authorities that payments are forthcoming," it said.
Iraq's central government says exploration deals signed with Kurdistan are illegal.
Kurdistan says only two payments total ling $514 million have been received, with the last payment made in May 2011.
Baghdad has made payments to companies in Kurdistan in the past for exploration and extraction costs based on an interim agreement.
Officials from Iraq's oil ministry could not immediately be reached for comment. But Baghdad says it has already approved payment of $560 million to oil producers in the Kurdish region and is awaiting final audits.
The KRG said last week it had reduced oil exports to 50,000 barrels per day over the payment dispute. Iraq's government says it receives on average 70,000 to 75,000 bpd from Kurdistan, but says it only received 65,000 bpd since the start of the year.
Tensions between Baghdad and the Kurdish region have risen since October when Exxon Mobil announced a deal to explore for oil in Kurdistan. Baghdad warned the U.S. oil giant could risk its agreements with the central government.
OIL LAW DISPUTE
Iraqi lawmakers are still haggling over a national oil law that is meant to define who controls oilfields and revenues, creating a more solid legal framework for companies working in the OPEC nation.
But highlighting tensions over future investments, Iraq's central government has banned companies working in Kurdistan from participating in its 4th oil bidding round planned for this year for 12 new exploration blocks.
The dispute over payments also comes as Iraq's power-sharing government among Shi'ite, Sunni and Kurdish political blocs tries to end its worst political crisis since the government was formed just over a year ago.
Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in December sought the arrest of one of his Sunni vice presidents and asked lawmakers to sideline another of his Sunni deputies, in measures many Iraqi Sunnis believed aimed to shore up his power at their expense.
The Sunni vice president, Tareq al-Hashemi, fled to Kurdistan where officials are refusing Baghdad's request to hand him over to face terrorism charges, further fueling tensions between the two governments.
As much as a third of the oil extracted in northern Iraq is refined locally for domestic use, partly due to late payments from Baghdad for crude pumped into the major pipeline to Turkey and partly because it reduces the costs of producers.
Iraq has some of the world's largest oil reserves and Baghdad has signed multibillion-dollar contracts with global oil majors. But after Exxon agreed to its deals with Kurdistan, other oil majors, including France's Total, are considering deals with the northern region.
=========
11:44
Newswires: Iraq’s Shahristani says Kurdi...
pathai
12UP
http://www.euronews.com/newswires/1466976-iraqs-shahristani-says-kurdish-oil-smuggled-mainly-to-iran/
Reuters, 02/04 12:21 CET
BAGHDAD (Reuters) – Iraq’s Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Hussain al-Shahristani said most oil produced in the country’s autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan is being smuggled across borders, mainly to Iran, instead of fulfilling its export obligations.
His charges came after Iraqi Kurdistan on Sunday halted oil exports – which were around 50,000 barrels per day – to protest against the central government’s failure to pay oil companies there, the latest clash in its long-running oil dispute with Baghdad.
“Most of the crude produced in the region is being smuggled through borders and mainly to Iran,” Shahristani told reporters. “We have discussed with Iran and Turkey about controlling joint borders to stop smuggling crude.”
Kurdish oil exports are a fraction of the OPEC nation’s shipments, but the payment dispute feeds into a wider conflict between Iraqi Arabs and Kurds over autonomy, oil and land that risks upsetting Iraq’s fragile sectarian and ethnic balance.
(Reporting by Ahmed Rasheed; Writing by Patrick Markey; Editing by Erica Billingham)
euronews provides breaking news articles from Reuters as a service to its readers, but does not edit the articles it publishes.
Copyright 2012 Reuters.
===========
13:05
Re: Reuters->show your hand
Hub
16UP
Luaibi has already been proven to spread misinformation.
The first letter would have done the job - but it was more figment of Luaibi's imagination lol!
Now we have another imaginary letter?
The government has become a shambles. Maliki has lost control and we have all these war or words just as Kurds are doing the rounds in the US - mmm.
According to Luaibi and co - apparently Exxon had asked for 'days' to rethink their stance. The oil ministry had given them a deadline in Jan. Then it became Feb and the deadline seemed less important. Then it became March and Baghdad were giving Exxon their final warning. And then it became April and Exxon continue to give baghdad the middle finger.
The question that Luaibi should be answering is this...
"Mr Luaibi - could you let us all know why you haven't stripped Exxon of the West Q licence?" Also - why haven't you excluded them from the next bidding rounds in the south?
Finally - is there anyone left in your ministry that actually has any power at all?
The bloke is a joke and is simply deflecting away from the real tool here - which is Shahristani.
He's been shat on from the highest level and has no power to strip Exxon of anything contractual as Exxon have brokn no laws.
He can ban them from further bidding in the south - but for some reason seems reluctant to do so.
mmm
The battle of words and misinformation is increasing - which means one thing. Maliki and co are feeling the pressure and with the next bidding rounds seemingly crucial - there doesn't seem like there's any chance they'll happen soon.
HUB
=============
1:31
Re: Excalliber / T/ keystone Court Heari...
sicilian_kan
48UP
pj66, good that you made the effort to speak to the Court, however I don't agree with the Court's comments (it is likely you spoke to someone in Admin rather than to a lawyer there).
If Excalibur default then they will be in breach of the court's order. Now the starting point is the court's order from the last hearing. Was there a clause in there stating that if security for costs was not paid, that the proceedings would either be stayed (a permanent suspension reopenable only on a successful application to lift the stay) or struck out? If so, then this clause will presumably apply after the 21 days expires.
Alternatively, if there was no such clause, then GKP / TKI's remedy is not to wait until the PTR when the default will be noted as suggested to you. GKP's remedy is to immediately apply for the strike out of Excalibur's claim. They would do this pursuant to CPR r3.4(2)(c), which reads at http://www.justice.gov.uk/courts/procedure-rules/civil/rules/part03#IDAML0HC:
"3.4— Power to strike out a statement of case
...(2) The court may strike out( a statement of case if it appears to the court–
...(c) that there has been a failure to comply with a rule, practice direction or court order."
So how would GKP do this? Well they certainly wouldn't wait for a PTR in July. An application to strike out is not something you merely note a PTR. It has to be a formal written application in accordance with the rules relating to application notices pursuant to CPR r23, see: http://www.justice.gov.uk/courts/procedure-rules/civil/rules/part23#IDA4OKCC
((Dismissal of totally without merit applications
23.12
If the court dismisses an application (including an application for permission to appeal or for permission to apply for judicial review) and it considers that the application is totally without merit –
(a) the court’s order must record that fact; and
(b) the court must at the same time consider whether it is appropriate to make a civil restraint order.
))
If I was GKP's / TKI's lawyer, I would lodge this application immediately and would also seek from the Court an expedited or urgent hearing for the strike out application. I would expect the court to agree and a hearing would likely be a matter of days or weeks not July. Breaches of court orders should be dealt with asap and the whole point of the security for costs application is to protect GKP's costs position. If Excalibur cannot pay the security for costs, then GKP should argue that the strike out application should be heard with urgency to protect GKP from incurring further costs in preparation for trial between now and the PTR / trial date.
In my view, any application for strike out of Excalibur's claim for non-payment of security for costs, would result in an RNS fairly shortly thereafter. It is obviously market sensitive information. Exclalibur may well object and the application would then be litigated before the judge on its merits. It is too early to state what they might put forwards, if anything.
By way of a practical example, here is but one example of a successful strike out application for non-payment of security for costs. It is one that some on AIM are familiar with - I followed the court case out of curiosity.
Meldex International Plc v. Trevellion [2010] EWHC 1342 (Ch). Anyone remember that AIM disaster? N.b. not reported on bailii, but summarised on the successful barrister's website - I have a longer summary of it but it is copyright material:
http://www.oeclaw.co.uk/members/barrister_full.asp?b=546
"For the former managing director of pharmaceutical company in the successful discharge of a worldwide freezing order alleging fraud and breach of fiduciary duty, and the subsequent striking out of the action for non-compliance with a consent order for the provision of security for costs"
Obviously, each case will though turn on its own merits and particular facts. There were some pretty aggravating ones re Meldex's conduct in that case.
Finally, as ever, this is not my area of expertise. Do not rely on this post and as ever, DYOR.
Author sicilian_kan View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 14:16
Subject Excalibur
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 13 times.
Message
Fruit n Veg, I agree with you. The freezing order application shows either incredible bare-faced cheek on the part of Excalibur, or alternatively, that Excalibur's lawyers were not very competent.
I do also agree with the general thinking behind GRH1's most recent post and just wish to expand on some matters.
When Excalibur applied for a freezing order, they did so without notifying GKP / TKI. This is standard practice when applying for such orders.
In applying for a without notice freezing order, you are required to give "full and frank disclosure" to the court.
The practical consequences of full and frank disclosure is as follows: Excalibur would have been under a duty to disclose all relevant material to the court including material which may be unfavourable to them or which might have raised any defence that GKP / TKI would have raised. What this amounts to is Excalibur presenting to the court, out of fairness, the documentation that GKP / TKI might have wanted to show the court had they been present.
Given that Excalibur had to perform this onerous task of drawing to the court's attention material that undermined their own case or which assisted GKP / TKI's, and to make reasonable enquiries to search for relevant material, it would be most surprising if Excalibur did not try to present their case as strongly as possible at the freezing order application stage, when having to be fair to the absent defendant too.
I therefore place some emphasis on the fact that when Mrs Justice Gloster makes the below observations about the weakness of part of Excalibur's case against GKP (rather than TKI), that these comments are based on Excalibur's case at a time when I would have expected Excalibur to have already put forwards as strong a case as they could in the earlier freezing order proceedings, to mitigate against the fact that they were also having to present material that might support GKP's case back then:
"Mrs Justice Gloster : ...i) First, there is, on the evidence before me, a strong arguable case that the Gulf Defendants are not party either to the Collaboration Agreement or to the arbitration agreement contained within it. The grounds put forward by Excalibur to assert the contrary are not (at least at this stage) legally or evidentially convincing, although this is, of course, not an issue which I have to decide. It is relevant to note that at the without notice hearing before me, Excalibur 's skeleton conceded that "… the claimant may well not have good contractual claims against all of the Respondent/Defendants"..."
Note however that there are other claims bar breach of collaboration agreement against GKP and TKI.
Turning to investor48's comments, I think that jonnyroyale has summed up the position very well. I'm only referring to what Excalibur is claiming. I passed no comment on the merits of Excalibur's claim, though I do analyse this in an older post. I think that I can rest assured however that the claim is not for more than 30%. The 2011 judgment states re the claims under New York law:
"Further or alternatively, under the laws of New York the Claimant has a superior right in replevin ((An action to recover personal property said or claimed to be unlawfully taken.)) to 30% of the hydrocarbons currently in the possession of the Defendants and/or there is a constructive trust in favour of the Claimant, in that the Defendants by fraud, duress, abuse of confidence, and/or other unconscionable conduct have obtained rights to property or assets which in equity and in good conscience they ought not to hold and enjoy."
It is unlikely that they would be claiming a different sum in different claims, though the actual claim form (which the public can apply for) may clarify matters.
You will also see from this that it does not appear that Excalibur is seeking to join the PSC through this litigation. They appear to be claiming that they are the beneficial owner of 30% of hydrocarbons that are in law held by the Defendants. I.e. that this 30% should be held on trust for Excalibur by GKP. It is a back door route that, if they won, gives them an interest in 30% of GKP / TKI's interest in the PSCs, rather than joining them into the PSC itself. It conveniently ignores the fact that they haven't made any financial contributions to the drilling, nor been diluted due to lack of funds etc. But that is an argument for another day / should GKP / TKI lose.
My hunch((An intuitive feeling or a premonition)) by the way is some form of settlement (do not rely on this or anything else I write). I don't imagine that TK will want to be cross examined in public about his dirty laundry nor do I expect him to want the allegations of fraud to be splashed over the newspapers as the hearing is reported. The tit bits we have about him already are juicy enough. I also don't expect the KRG to want their business dealings to be analysed in detail in public in a British court. My hunch is for GKP / TKI to settle with Excalibur on a no liability accepted basis, for 50% or under of 30% of TKI's small interests in some of the PSCs. The net damage to GKP (if there is an £8+ takeover) will be slight. Excalibur's backers would still make a decent profit even if they have not already. My hope is for this case to be concluded in Q2 12 so as to minimise costs all round and to facilitate any takeover / asset sale talks re Shaikan that in my view would be best placed to be concluded before the development plan is due / exploration stage expires. And this is fast approaching.
Finally, as a pure point of interest, companies can have their entire assets frozen if that is necessary in the circumstances - note it clearly was not in GKP's case, indeed it was not appropriate for GKP to have any assets frozen. But in the more extreme situations where all the assets were frozen, the court would usually include a clause permitting the frozen assets to be used for the company's ordinary business expenses. In addition, where the company couldn't be trusted to operate its business in accordance with the freezing order, then the court could appoint a receiver to run the company, pending judgment or settlement of the claim.
===========
GRH1
Wed 16:34
No Subject
GKP.L
137UP
All
Due to the extraordinary amount of flak ( Antiaircraft artillery.
The bursting shells fired from such artillery.
Informal.
Excessive or abusive criticism.) that has been directed at several posters...
(I noted that my own initials had cropped up a couple of times)
I had decided NOT to post my thoughts on here again...
I would merely share my thoughts privately with a limited number of those I have actually MET in person...
However....
I cannot allow the speculation and debate surrounding EXC to pass without comment
here goes...
maybe one last time/maybe not
The speculation on here about whether the EXC litigation is 'real' ...
or being used as a means to an end...
is interesting
but IMO pretty pointless
The answer is blindingly clear...to my mind at least
Allow me to spell it out by way of an example
Many years ago, a large business associate owed me a lot of money...
and I got wind of the fact that he was de-camping abroad...out of my reach
I went to see my lawyers (major London Firm who I had used for many years)
the 'head of litigation' told me in no uncertain terms
that I would have to seek a freezing order on the chap's assets...
a so-called Mareva injunction ...were I to stand a decent chance of getting my money
So...he got an early slot with a Judge in Chambers in the High Court in the Strand...
but we spent slightly too long in his then offices in Chancery Lane...
so we had to literally run to court...
with my lawyer donning (To assume or take on:) his 'audience' robes as we entered the main entrance to the building...up the long corridor...
We got to the relevant room and he quickly put our case in its entirety before the Judge...
arguing along the lines of...
'the Order of the Court...were they to find in my favour ...was in danger of not being enforced'....
After 15 minutes of debate with the judge (the other party was not there of course) we got the Mareva
the guy paid up in full within 2 days
Now..."so what?" ...I hear you cry...
Well...simple really
at NO stage...
from the time of entering my lawyers' offices
through the meeting that ensued...
to running round the corner
going into court...
NEVER ONCE ...
did my lawyer utter the words below...or anything remotely like them...
" I tell you what...I have a great idea...
you know all that documentary evidence you showed me?
...well please put some of it back in your briefcase
as we will simply ask the Judge to find in our favour WITHOUT giving him the FULL details"
I know what I think...
Excalibur and advisors hoped...as a major plank of their strategy ...to get a freezing order ...
and thus exert maximal pressure on TKI/GKP....
and as a back up they hoped to have the case heard in ICA New York...
where I hope I am right in saying....
each Party would have to bear only their own costs...
IE where EXC would not have to bear the costs of TKI/GKP
So do you think that EXC would have put their best foot forward in DEC 2010 to obtain a Mareva Injunction?
if they decided NOT to do that ...
they would have been like me being prepared to put part of my paperwork back in my briefcase...
IE I would have shot myself in the foot by NOT maximising my chances of gaining maximum pressure via Freezing Order
Did ANYONE read my post of months ago about the 'obiter dicta' by Justice Gloster?
(( Law. An opinion voiced by a judge that has only incidental bearing on the case in question and is therefore not binding. Also called dictum.
An incidental remark or observation; a passing comment.))
please be aware that such 'obiter' will go into the case proper ...and due consideration will be given to that
Hmmm...and EXC were probably pretty miffed (bad-tempered mood;)at being forced into a single London route...for the litigation...
by the expedient of the ICA being denied them...
that was when J Gloster talked of it being vexatious etc to force the Parties into defending twin lots of Actions in two jurisdictions
(( vexatious: Causing or creating vexation; annoying.
Full of annoyance or distress; harassed.
Intended to vex or annoy.))
Are we being 'played'?
it is pretty clear to me...
but of course...what do you think???
Regards
GRH1
14-03-12
PAINFUL SHOES
GKP.L
157UP
All
Firstly...may I please offer my own grateful thanks
to all those today who both attended Court
and provided good analysis
a quite terrific job
Secondly....
I am no expert regarding vexatious litigation...
so may I merely please pose the following question
to those here who might be better qualified to comment...
In the event of this litigation proceeding to trial...
and in the event of EXC losing...
I am well aware that the Court may 'look through' Excalibur to those providing financial support to Excalibur to facilitate the prosecution of such action...
and as far as I recall, any such 'backers' would be jointly and severally liable for all the COSTS...should such costs not be paid by Excalibur...
IE every such backer would be on the hook for ALL such costs?
OK...all pretty clear so far...and that is bad enough perhaps for those who 'support' the Excalibur legal actions
BUT...please consider this...
What IF the legal actions were viewed by the Court to be VEXATIOUS ...
my own amateur assessment tells me that Excalibur might now be entering such area as the cases are currently STILL proceeding
( I make no comment relating to the future ...or otherwise... of such cases)
Were the Court to hold that the actions WERE vexatious, I rather think that both GKP and Texas could seek amounts in damages that were... shall we say...
'quite a bit' greater than the 'mere' covering of costs
in the case of GKP, might it be shown that the loss to GKP was very considerable indeed (placing prices/lost opportunity etc)??
such that any claim would DWARF the costs now under discussion...
and that claim /award would again land squarely in the lap of those providing 'support' to Excalibur
Imagaine yourself for one second....as a potential backer of EXC...
would you wish to run the risk of being hit by not only escalating costs/payment as security for costs in 21 days....
but ALSO by the potential UNLIMITED liability of a future decision by the Court regarding vexatious litigation
I tried to place myself for a few minutes in the shoes of such CURRENT and potential backers.......
I could not wait to remove them...painful that they were
Regards
GRH1
19-02-12
YOUR COMPANY NEEDS YOU
GKP.L
284UP
All
all usual caveats apply here...
as many of you know, I am an uber bull and my post contains strong bias...
so the following cannot be viewed please as any form of investment advice
It DOES represent my very heart-felt...and pocket-felt ... view
FWIW...I have probably as large a % of my personal wealth invested here as most...
and thus the perceived wisdom would be that I should 'de-risk'....
I have lost count of the NUMBER of times well-meaning friends have told me that since 2009
but I have kept on increasing my holdings...again and again etc
I have posted several times re people not becoming RICH...
were they to simply take profits off the table...
and recent rises have illustrated that point rather better than my inadequate words ever could
and of course I have tried to help out by posting some 'satellite' enabled images ...
these may have helped fellow investors focus upon WHAT we truly have within our grasp
but please focus on ONE thing now....
as several posters have suggested....
Todd is very clearly sending a message to all PIs that we should not sell out....
WHY?
there might be several answers....
but ONE answer is very simple....
and stands head and shoulders above all others in my mind
IT IS THIS.
every share that is held tight by PIs is in safe hands...
and may well become very important should hostile (or even non hostile) bids arrive
BUT...for every share that is SOLD to a would-be bidder....
that share movement COUNTS double...
as it moves from the 'no' vote to the 'yes' vote
I do not wish to become involved in UK politics here but simply say that
it is PRECISELY this simple mathematic that cost Lady Thatcher her Premiership many years ago...
as the counters had fumbled the maths and she failed to win at the first ballot...the rest is history as they say
So...if you sell ... you might well bask((To expose oneself to pleasant warmth.
To take great pleasure or satisfaction: )) in the glow of the cash...
but believe me when I say that such basking may prove very short lived...
and... in selling any shares ...you might very well be contributing to limiting the eventual TO price
When all this is over and we end up at a TO party etc...
I might be prepared to tell a few PIs (who asked a while back) a bit more about my corporate deals and holdings....
but for now I would simply ask you to believe that I have some understanding of such matters...
don't forget ....YOUR SHARES COUNT DOUBLE
not just my shares ...
or the person next to you...
but YOUR shares ...
as YOUR Company needs you
Good luck to all HOLDERS
Regards
GRH1
======
Shahristani, calling on the government to "recover" the right of Iraqi oil from Kurdistan
Editor: NK
Monday 02 نيسان 2012 09:41 GMT
Deputy Prime Minister for Energy, Hussain al-Shahristani during the joint press conference with the Minister of Oil Abdul Karim Laibi
Sumerian News / Baghdad
Deputy Prime Minister for Energy, Hussain al-Shahristani, Monday, the Iraqi government to recover the right of Iraq's oil from the Kurdistan region, and considered that the decision of the Kurdistan region of Iraq stopped oil exports until further notice will be attached to great harm to Iraq and will affect the state budget, while the Minister of Oil Sales the region that have not submitted to the government amounted to five times the value of the receivables claimed by.
Shahristani said during a press conference held in Baghdad and attended "Alsumaria News", "There are substantial funds Sakhosrha Iraq due to stop the Kurdistan region of Iraq to export oil," and that "this will cause a deficit in the general budget of the State".
The budget for Iraq for the current year 2012, which approved on 23 February and was worth about $ 100 billion has been calculated on the basis that Iraq will be 2.6 million barrels per day, including 175 thousand barrels from the fields of Kurdistan, an average price of $ 85 a barrel.
The Shahristani said that "the provincial government take the dues amounting to 17 percent of the general budget and that stopped the export of oil will hurt the governorates of Iraq," calling on the government to "consider the actions required to protect the wealth of Iraq and the recovery of this right which is right for all Iraqis and not for any of these areas."
And the off-Shahristani said the Kurdistan export oil, "comes at a time when Iraq has achieved during the month of March, the highest production since 1990 and this may Atfaji Iraqis how to dispose of this oil and stop the delivery of oil to the federal government at a time when Iraq to achieve success."
The Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq announced yesterday the first Sunday of April current, turn off all oil exports until further notice due to financial disputes with Baghdad, and showed that the central government "did not respect" its obligations to pay dues for the region.
Conversely announced the Iraqi Oil Ministry, on Sunday, a rise in oil exports for the month of March to more than 70 million barrels per month revenues exceeded eight billion dollars, stressing that such exports are the highest since 1989, as pointed out that it will increase its oil exports during the current year 2012, to 2.0006 million barrels.
For his part, The Minister of Oil Abdul Karim and coffee that "the amounts charged by the province from the sale of domestic oil does not fall within the imports of the Iraqi state as a counterbalance united they constitute more than five times the costs estimated for the development of oil fields in the region," noting that "territory recovered actually costs before several years and it is not correct to call them again. "
He assured the coffee that "The ministry is keen through the plan weekly for the distribution of all petroleum products and all of Iraq's provinces depending on the ratio of the population," explaining that "the tables indicate that the distribution in the region are at rates higher than the rest of the provinces, particularly white oil as a cold regions ".
The Iraqi Oil Ministry has warned, in the 13 last March, substantial losses in the public treasury of the state due to reduced KRG oil exports, but pointed out that the Government of the Territory is currently exporting 65 thousand barrels per day, asking them to fulfill their commitments made by the export of 175 thousand barrels per day, which developed on the basis of the general budget of the country in 2012.
Iraq has signed, during the year 2010, contracts with several international companies to develop some oil fields in the two rounds of licensing the first and second, to reach a production of at least 11 million barrels per day within the next six years, and 12 million barrels per day after the addition of the quantities produced from the fields other national effort focused most of those contracts in the fields of the south.
Indeed, Iraq has made of its oil facilities, and currently produces about three million barrels of crude oil per day, and exported through Basra while making the remaining amount through the northern port.
========
Author miny View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 10:50
Subject Re: Bringing the inevitable fwd View parent message
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 46 times.
Message
The halting of all exports could be seen as a double edged sword. On the negative side it places relations between the KRG and the ICG At a low point. It makes it that bit more difficult for GKP to sell its own oil to the local market, though this could be something that they have been doing under contract with a local refinery in any so it might not make any difference!
Does it make it difficult for GKP to offload any or all of their licences? I honestly couldnt say. Much depends on how large majors or NOCs view things.
On the international arena the overall viewp point is unlikely to view the actions of the ICG as being conducive to the general well being of Iraq so internationally this whole spat does more harm to Maliki and Shahristani than it does to the KRG and this factor is going to be important in the greater scheme of things.
There are risks involved for the KRG if the ICG were to stop payments of the Kurds 17% allocation but such actions would surely be reckless at a time when M&S are already weak through their actions to date!
On the positive front I see Sundays actions tactically appropriate for the KRG. It forces the ICG to act in favour of restoring the payments of exports or for the ICG to act recklessly.
Turkey is already furious with the actions of M%S so any further damaging attacks by the ICG would simply cement the already odds on certainty that Turkey will allow the various proposed pipelines to head straight for Ceyhan.
Talk if Independence now for Kurdistan is way out, That does not rule out suggestions and threats of doing so! The Kurds are working to a plan and are progressing extremely well and according to plan. The big majors and NOCs have already sussed out what the Kurds plan is and know there is a mechanism for payments for work done and profit payments that will take place once the oil pipelines are completed and the oil exports are seriously ramped up during this process ready for exporting.
Whilst some squabble about each others posts on this BB the KRG are busy ensuring that the financing of the big expansion is in place and mobilised. Maliki and Shahristani know that they will be overtaken by events within 18 months and instead of trying to unify Iraq and accepting that Kurdistan is a special case they continue to fight against the Kurds at every turn. The attempts to try and boost output at Kirkuk is to try and add fuel to the fire.
It would be foolish to think there are no hurdles or potential setbacks but overall I remain happy to be all in and up to my eyes in GKP shares. I see the potential of over a million bpd coming from the Kurdistan region to Turkey and Turkey making payments for such oil to the KRG thus ensuring that the Kudistan oilies get their costs and profits.
Once those pipelines start to roll out, each metre they get closer to a specific point, lets call it the Oil Law Point of no return lol the ICG better ensure the O&GL is in place and all KRG existing contracts are all honoured without any real adjustments otherwise the Kurds move to Independance will become a formality supported fully by all the appropriate countries.
So if I can see the end game then I have little doubt the oil majors and NOCs can also see.
The sp can do what it likes in the meantime and I will simply bide my time. I am becoming more and more convinced that the negotiations in private are well advanced and merely waiting for the green light from the KRG to get the ball moving.
For anyone to think that such vast amounts of oil in the hands of a small company will remain that way is ludicrous. For the City to take a viewpoint that GKP will not get taken over and certainly not at a very substantial premium (at least £10 in total absolute minimum) is beyond belief.
I dont remember the exact details but when Microsoft shot up like a rocket in a relatively short period of time analysts started to pencil in growth e.g 30% each quarter for the foreseeable future, many in the City said the sp has had its great rise it was time to take profits. Microsoft then went on to exceed all expectations on growth and provided spectacular profits for those willing to believe the story.
GKP may or may not rise to spectacular heights or a super massive take out offer. But my bet is it will provide a 300% + rise for those who got in at much higher prices than it is today. Its just a matter of time.
As for which side will win in the big spat. Well I take one look at Kurdistan and another in Baghdad and my money is very firmly put in Kurdistan despite the risks perceived or real.
All IMHO. Miny
===============
Reidar Visser | Tuesday, 3 April 2012 13:28 at 13:28
So, Hashemi arrived with Qatar Airways. It is true that they have announced plans for an Erbil–Doha service. But that service will not commence until May. Also, it will be operated by Airbus 320s. The aircraft on the picture looks a lot slimmer than an Airbus, perhaps more like a Bombardier?
The question of Iraqi airspace sovereignty has received some attention lately, both with dramatic declarations that Iraq would “close its skies” for the Arab League summit, and in relation to reports that Iran is continuing to send weapons and fighters to Syria on flights crossing Iraqi territory. What this picture seems to indicate is that a foreign country, Qatar, can in fact send its aircraft in and out of Iraq with impunity, even on missions perceived as hostile by the Iraqi prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki. Whether the jet actually flew straight down to Gulf (as is most likely) or headed via Turkey and Jordan to avoid “central government” territory is somewhat academic. Guarding Iraq’s borders is a central government prerogative anyway and it seems entirely unrealistic that the Qatari jet landed in Erbil without the express permission of the Kurds.
KRG still in daily contact with Exxon
03/04/2012 10:53
ERBIL, April 3 (AKnews) - Kurdistan Regional Government has again rejected Iraq's claims that Exxon Mobil has frozen its contracts in the semi-autonomous region, claiming to have almost daily contact with the oil giant.
Ashti al-Hawrami, Kurdistan Region's natural resources minister said in an interview with Businessweek in Washington, “What comes out of Baghdad is about 90 percent, with respect, rubbish.”
He said the KRG hears from Exxon on an "almost daily basis" and said the company is "committed" to all its contracts in the region.
Iraq's Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Affairs, Hussein al-Shahristani, said yesterday at a news conference that Exxon Mobil sent a letter on April 1 confirming its decision to freeze contracts in Kurdistan Region.
He added that the energy will now participate in the fourth licensing round.
Exxon declined to give a comment to Businessweek.
The oil dispute between Erbil and Baghdad governments developed further after Kurdistan's Ministry of Natural Resources suspended oil exports from the region indefinitely.
The KRG claims that the Iraqi government is yet to pay dues owed since last May.
http://www.aknews.com/en/aknews/2/299440/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
=====
KRG cools towards China and Russia
normde
2UP
I believe this is now the case.
Syria is backed by Iran, which also gives support to the Central Gov. of Iraq. Russia and China have given support to the 'shiite' Syrian regime that is hostile towards the Sunni majority in Syria. The majority of Kurds in Syria also want to see an end to Assad and hope for autonomy. Sunnis of opposition groups in Syria are as yet to agree to Kurdish aspirations, but they could welcome their support. The KRG, taking note of China and Russia's backing of Assad, will be very wary of giving too many concessions to their oil majors in Kurdistan.
Forget a Sinopec T/O of GKP - that won't happen. Kurdistan's security will be aligned with the West.
IMO
normde
==========
Excalibur: Apr05/ 12
investor48
2UP
SK,
Nice post.Excalibur can argue their case and spin the story as they deem fit.One thing is certain,one do not file a suit months after material information of Shaikan is known!
If one is a genuine partner short changed,the suit would have been filed even before SH1 was spud!
With that i rest my case.
Best wishes
========
Sanctioned Syrian firm qualifies for oil bid round
Overview of the UN Human Rights Council during the emergency debate on human rights and humanitarian situation in Syria at the United Nations in Geneva
The U.N. Human Rights Council debates Syria sanctions at the United Nations in Geneva, Feb. 28, 2012. (DENIS BALIBOUSE/Reuters)
By Ben Lando of Iraq Oil Report
Published April 5, 2012
The Syrian General Oil Corp., a target of increased international sanctions against the Syrian government, has been approved by the Iraqi Oil Ministry to bid in the May 30-31 bidding round for 12 exploration blocks.
The move comes days after Iraqi oil officials said ExxonMobil will also be allowed again to bid, following a letter in which the company allegedly reiterated promises to freeze its six production sharing contracts with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
=====
UPDATE: Northern exports resume after Turkey pipeline explosion
DV84705
Iraq’s Oil Police secure the site of a burning oil pipeline near the northern city of Kirkuk on July 3, 2006, after it was bombed by insurgents. Another section of the pipeline, in Turkey, was attacked at 1 a.m. on April 5, 2012. (MARWAN IBRAHIM/AFP/Getty Images)
By Kamaran al-Najar, Ben Van Heuvelen, and Staff of Iraq Oil Report
Published April 5, 2012
Three bombs tore through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline on the Turkish side near the Iraqi border early Thursday morning, but have exports have been restarted 12 hours later through the system's backup pipeline.
"At 1:20 am on April 5 the northern strategic pipeline was targeted within Turkish territory," said Assem Jihad, the Oil Ministry spokesman. "After, the pumping was stopped. We received information that the fire was under control after the explosion; at around 12:30 pm, pumping was resume...
Kurdish leaders split over export stoppage
Larry Morrow, a construction supervisor for Norway's DNO Iraq, taking a call about work at the Tawke field as he overlooks the crude processing facility at DNO's Feyshkabour export center. On the far right is where Tawke field oil is piped in. To the left, pipelines running from a tanker offloading center where other KRG fields truck their crude to be exported. (BEN LANDO/Iraq Oil Report)
Larry Morrow, a construction supervisor for Norway's DNO Iraq, taking a call about work at the Tawke field as he overlooks the crude processing facility at DNO's Feyshkabour export center. On the far right is where Tawke field oil is piped in. To the left, pipelines running from a tanker offloading center where other KRG fields truck their crude to be exported. (BEN LANDO/Iraq Oil Report)
By Ben Van Heuvelen and Staff of Iraq Oil Report
Published April 5, 2012
Kurdistan's entire parliamentary delegation in Baghdad has called on their colleagues in the regional government to resume oil exports, exposing rifts within the Kurdish leadership amidst Iraq's escalating political disputes.
Kurdistan's parliamentary delegation made the decision in a meeting attended by its most senior members, including Fuad Masum, the head of the bloc, and Muhsen al-Sa'doon, the deputy head.
"We call for the Kurdistan government to resume exports," said Sa'doon, who co...
======
Iraqi Kurdistan says Exxon committed to oil deal
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Exxon Mobil Corp
XOM.N
$84.82
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04/05/2012
The Exxon corporate logo is pictured at a gas station in Arlington, Virginia January 31, 2012. REUTERS/Jason Reed
ARBIL, Iraq | Fri Apr 6, 2012 1:44am BST
(Reuters) - The chief executive of U.S. oil major Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) on Thursday reaffirmed the company's commitment to its oil deal with Iraq's autonomous northern Kurdish region, a statement from the Kurdish presidency website said.
Iraq's central government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) have a long-standing feud over control of oil in the north and the announcement of an oil contract between Exxon and the KRG last October infuriated Baghdad.
The central government threatened to bar Exxon from future deals and has said it would even reconsider its role in a huge oil project in southern Iraq.
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A statement from the Kurdish Presidency website posted late on Thursday said the region's President Masoud Barzani had met with Exxon Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson while visiting the United States.
"Rex Tillerson renewed the commitment of his company's signed contracts with Kurdistan and Iraq and expressed the readiness of Exxon Mobil to continue its work in Kurdistan," the statement said.
On Monday, Baghdad said Exxon had frozen its work in the Kurdish region. The KRG denied this.
(Reporting by Shamal Aqrawi; Writing by Serena Chaudhry; Editing by Sugita Katyal)
=====
3 SLB Rigs closing end of April May. They may have finished there drill plan, don't know. All 3 working for, Yes you guessed it.
Thu 19:00
Re: SLB Rigs
ExSol
35UP
The 3 Rigs are in Rumaila in the Sth. One of the rigs is a special type, on wheels/Hydrolics, can lift up move a few feet and start drilling again. They are all 1600HP, one of the rigs is a directional type.
Believe this is the only type of rig in Iraq, and will get some more Info on it
You will be updated when we find out were they are going Nxt
All the best
============
07-03-12
Hold Exxon
TheCheshireCheese
118UP
I can't say who I work for, but I do work in Iraq and in the oil business. An extremely high level source told me that Exxon are not pulling out of KRG.
My source is not a roustabout or a cleaner.
I am being extremely careful with the way I put this across. But it is what it is. And should be taken by all in the same way that anything on this board is. This BB is full of wild rumours, beliefs and utter lies. So take this as you like and I shall prepare for the onslaught.
What I have been told has put my mind at ease, however even if Exxon did pull out we would be getting snapped up by another major. The only thing that Exxon not pulling out will do is maintain the SP at the price it has been inflated to purely on rumour in the first few months of this year.
Yesterday was hideous but GKP is a company with proven reserves.
22-02-12
Buy Why so easy people?
GKP.L
29UP
So there is two main possibilities in my mind right now.
Number one - As is usual on the AIM and with this share in particicular, there is possibly some negative inside information that we, the steadfast PI's that have been foooooked about for years with GKP don't know about, maybe concerning BB.
Caveat - Highly unlikely and more than likely BOOOOOOOOOOOLSHEEEEEET
Number two - TK has basically briefed us as PI's that we should stick it out, pretty similar to Ashleys advice really. There will be news on BB very shortly (23rd) and the MM's are stealing your shares. If you are a trader then good luck to you and I truly mean that, I haven't got the balls. But if not then why would you give up your shares so so easily.
The ups and downs on this share over the years have been outrageous and for the record, honestly, the levels we have seen for the past 3 weeks should have been the levels for the past 18 months.
I will be straight if this were to touch 12 quid (A pound sterling.) before TO I am out and will walk away happy as Larry. I need my life back and to slow down this advanced on set of grey hair.
Date posted 2011-06-23 14:04
Subject Why the Cryptic Messages
Opinion Strong BUY
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 25 times.
Message
If you, as a PI and holder of the share that you regularly post on the BB of, were made aware of some bad and imminent news that related to said share. Would you not warn the other PI's??
This is not insider trading as defined by the law. It would not be unlawful to post that you knew there had been a duster for instance. This is just your post and PI's can make their own opinion and then their own decisions as to what action to carry out.
I have been here for two years now and seen and read it all. All the ups and all the downs. The same faces turn up when we are on the slide, like AVM. And then some new faces name strangely appear. To be fair I only read the names I trust, dalesmann, gramacho, scaramouche etc etc.
Now as a PI surely it is much better conduct to either tell all of what you know or say nothing. Cryptic messages just stink of MM's games and make you the poster appear to have zero credibility.
Good luck to all day traders and long term holders. Just remember there are dark forces at work amongst these here boards..................
GLA
The Cheese
===========
19-03-12
Looking Forwards
GKP.L
176UP
There is an interesting week ahead of us. Tony H is presenting this week and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if his appearance wasn’t stage managed to coincide with a Ber Bahr announcement. Wouldn’t it be good if he is able to announce good news on the biggest target of them all.
Then there is the walk out by Allawis block with a three day ultimatum to agree the Erbil accords. This has been made more piquant by the KRG hinting at important news for the Kurds this week. This could be good news on the Erbil agreement or even a declaration of independence.
It is unlikely that such an announcement could be made without some sort of interim funding – perhaps the KRGs are looking to the new interest from super majors to fund the new state until the jewel in the Kurdistan Crown comes on stream I would not rule out an Exxon deal that takes this into account. – scrap the ASIP tax in return for interim funding until the Fishkharbour hook up to new KRG pipelines has been achieved
The link up between Total and the Chinese is also significant – that makes for a powerful negotiating block – the petro dollars of the Chinese linked with the expertise of Total – a world leader in the removal of H2S.
On top of all this we have Perella wheeling and dealing behind the scenes. An announcement of a takeover could come at any time and it seems to me that loose ends are being tidied up. Excalibur has less than 3 weeks to deposit 9.5m into the courts jurisdiction. IMHO it must be very uncomfortable for the backers who I’m sure expected GKP to settle before now. Will we see Excalibur withdraw from the court case?
Then we have production ramping up. Expenditure appears to be in the $65,000 per day region (article on the GKP website) while income could be around $126,000 per day.
We have news due on Shaikan 4. This well is a bobby dazzler as my dad would have said. Even the thin crappy zones flow. New OIP figures must be available to the company but I for one hope they hold them back to use at a time of best advantage in any negotiation with a suitor.
Ashti Hawrami at the Ceraweek conference talked about a rationalization of the number of companies operating in Kurdistan down from 48 to 25 were his numbers. It is obvious that they are driving this rationalization.
And still we have the fracture report . a new DGA report and results from Shaikan 5 and 6 still to come . And with these results 2P reserves may well be announced and the price of Shaikan will rise.
Akri Bijeel may well be sold and a premier listing on the FTSE may become a reality.
So much to look forwards to and still GKP is available at a bargain basement price. Ignore the Brokers look at the fundamentals; the possible political movements and the news still to come.
17-03-12
Re: Dalesmann - what is your take on Oil...
GKP.L
58UP
Hi Stigold
I think everything has already been said on this issue. As Zengas pointed out yesterday frozen does not mean cancelled and as you yourself have pointed out the timeline is suspect.
Rex T said on the 8th at Ceraweek that he and Exxon are committed to both the South and Kurdistan. Their lawyers haw crawled over the KRG contracts and agree with Clifford Chance that they are in line with the Iraq constitution and are legal. Exxon have signed contracts with the KRG they too are legally binding.
I think we are in danger of seeing Exxon as the only possible suitor for GKP , the prize on offer is so big there that every major and in particular NOCs, cannot afford to miss out on Shaikan. If Exxon wobbles that is not the end of the matter for GKP. Sinopec are already barred from the south and run Taq Taq. Chevron and Conoco are not constrained by Southern contracts. Total says it is entering Kurdistan. Statoil wishes to leave the south. Our oil will be snapped up by a major or a NOC. Hawrami at Ceraweek said again that their will be a contraction in the number of firms operating in Kurdistan. He mentioned from 48 down to 25 or less. It is clear to me that Hawrami and the KRG are driving this contraction as they want in place companies that have the finance and expertise to develop the resources that Kurdistan has to offer and do so quickly. If not Exxon then another major company will claim the prize.
Kind regards
Dalesmann
Please DYOR and act accordingly. No advice give -all the usual caveats apply.
==========
Kurdish minister received UK market abuse emails: sources
Fri, Apr 06 10:39 AM EDT
By Tom Bergin and Steve Slater
LONDON (Reuters) - Ashti Hawrami, oil minister of the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq, was the recipient of emails from a senior JP Morgan banker that the UK financial regulator this week said constituted market abuse, people familiar with the matter said.
Ian Hannam quit as JPMorgan's global chairman of equity capital markets after the FSA fined him 450,000 pounds ($712,400) for divulging privileged information in two emails in 2008. Hannam, a gruff former special forces soldier, is one of Britain's most successful investment bankers and is appealing against the fine. An independent review is likely to take at least a year to complete.
The Financial Services Authority (FSA) fined Hannam in relation to an email in September 2008 to an unnamed "Mr. A", whom three sources told Reuters was Hawrami.
The email contained information about a potential takeover bid for Hannam's client, Heritage Oil. Mr A is central to the probe, as he could then have advised his organization to buy a stake in Heritage, the FSA said.
Spokesmen for Hannam, JPMorgan, the FSA and Hawrami declined to comment.
In the FSA's notice of its fine and decision this week, it said Hannam said the contents of the email were not sufficiently precise or price-sensitive to constitute inside information, and the information had already been disclosed to Mr A by Tony Buckingham, the chief executive of Heritage Oil.
Heritage declined to comment, but the FSA notice said the information disclosed by Hannam was more specific than that provided to Mr A by Buckingham.
"It is not suggested that any trades were conducted on the basis of the information disclosed by Mr Hannam," the FSA has said.
The FSA also accepted that Hannam was "acting in Heritage's interests when making the disclosures to Mr A" as he tried to find a partner for Heritage to tie up with, or sell assets to, to help fund the development of Heritage's oil find in Kurdistan.
Conservative party member of parliament David Davis, a supporter of Hannam, told Reuters in a telephone interview that the fact the first email was sent to a government minister - whom he declined to name - meant no wrongdoing occurred because the minister could be relied upon to respect the confidentiality of the information contained.
"On the evidence presented, this is an incomprehensible conclusion," Davis said of the FSA fine.
The FSA says these were serious matters and defends its decision to fine Hannam.
Hawrami's department has previously been involved in dealing in shares of Norwegian oil company DNO, which was criticized in an Oslo Stock Exchange (OSE) report in 2009 for not providing enough information regarding the sale to investors.
At around the same time that Hannam sent the emails to Hawrami, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) was involved in purchasing shares in DNO International, which was listed in Norway and operating in Kurdistan.
The identity of the KRG as the purchaser of the shares was revealed in a probe by the OSE, which fined DNO in 2009.
The shares were subsequently sold to Turkey's Genel Enerji, a pre-cursor company to UK-listed Genel Energy, with which Heritage Oil ended up entering a merger agreement in June 2009. That merger collapsed after the FSA launched a probe into suspected insider dealing in Heritage shares by Genel Enerji's Chief Executive Mehmet Sepil. Sepil was later fined for market abuse.
The KRG said neither it nor any of its ministries, officials, employees or advisers benefited directly or indirectly, through DNO or Genel Enerji, from the transaction or subsequent resale of the shares.
There is no evidence that Hawrami used the information he received from Hannam improperly or that it influenced his government's participation in buying DNO shares.
The KRG said at the time that it got involved with the DNO share dealing to help the company raise money so it could continue working in Kurdistan, at a time when the region was struggling to attract investment.
Today, interest in the region has increased dramatically, and industry leaders including Exxon Mobil have agreed contracts.
The FSA notice implies that the KRG was also mulling an investment in Heritage, something that might have assisted its funding needs at the time.
"Mr Hannam made these disclosures at a time when he knew that the recipient of his email might recommend that the organization he represented (Organisation C) should enter into a corporate transaction with Heritage, whereby Organisation C would purchase a stake in Heritage," the FSA said this week.
The probe into Hannam was triggered by the FSA's investigation into Genel, several sources have told Reuters.
Davis said it was Hannam who had alerted the authorities regarding the Sepil case. "He actually blew the whistle on it," Davis said, adding his information came from Hannam, who contributed to his unsuccessful bid to lead the Conservative Party in 2005.
($1 = 0.6317 British pounds)
=============
Barzani's final remarks in interview: Let us hope we do not talk of war. God willing, we will not have to resort to war.
(Reporting by Tom Bergin; Editing by Will Waterman)
========
Author scaramouche View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted Wednesday 19:02
Subject OIL-PRICE sensitive....
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 115 times.
Message
After following GKP so closely for the last two-and-a-half years, it is hard not to take an interest in any current news items that relate to that incredibly important commodity – OIL!
We have witnessed the growing concern about the global oil supply, because of Iran and the threatened closure of the Straits of Hormuz.
We have seen David Cameron getting into hot water over his suggested response to the proposed Tanker drivers’ strike in the UK.
And we have seen how dependent the developing economies of the Far East are quickly becoming on Oil to drive their future growth.
It is not the first time that there have been such crises and concerns, and it took me back to my days as a student... and my first summer job (in 1978).... which was as a garage forecourt attendant ....serving petrol during an energy crisis! LOL
As I recall, the price of petrol per gallon (we didn’t really talk about litres in those days!) was about 80p, and there was great concern about the impending likelihood of 'the £1 gallon'... which actually came about only about one year later.
For those more used to litres, one gallon is about 4.5 litres, so you could say I was selling petrol at the pump for about 17.5p per litre.... compared to about 137p today . So, the petrol price has risen nearly 700% in those 34 years.
Of course, in those days it is also worth remembering that there were many less cars on the roads, the far Eastern economies were in their infancy, and no-one ever thought about the possibility of Peak Oil and the chance that the level of supply might soon be out-stripped by demand.
That however is today’s unfortunate reality – oil is an increasingly vital but diminishing Global resource.
So, taking all of this into account, I constantly wonder whether Spidy’s GKP NAV calculator does in fact TRULY reflect the long-term value of the oil discoveries made across GKP’s licences.
http://www.navcalculator.com/GKP_NAV.php
The basis of the current NAV calculation is oil at $100 per barrel (in 1978, it was only about $13-14), and the calculator includes a significant DISCOUNT to the NAV, which results in $8 gross profit per barrel. Without this discount being applied, that figure would be around $13.... or 60% higher.
It is also worth noting that the KRG’s Infrastructure Support Tax of 40% is already encoded into the calculator, so the only figures that need to be adjusted by the user are the expected long-term OIL PRICE and the user’s expectation of the DISCOUNT FACTOR that will need to be applied.
We are already very familiar with how the value of GKP grows as its OIP figures rise; and we all understand that the final figure will be very dependent on the recovery factor that is applied. But I wonder how many of us really think about what the long-term price of oil should be.
My past experience is that in only 34 years, the price has multiplied 7 or 8 times. My expectation is that in the course of the next 34 years, the rate of price increase could be significantly greater than that.
Our friends from the Far East will undoubtedly be acutely aware of that risk and, to be honest, I would be rather surprised if their pricing models were factoring in oil at an average long-term price of only $100.
This one factor alone might explain why they paid what seemed like a hefty premium for Addax in August 2009, and why Mehmet Sepil of Genel confirmed at a press conference that Tony Hayward’s offer of $5.90 per barrel of proven reserves was substantially less than the Chinese were willing to pay in cash.
With no news yet of the result of GKP’s trip to China, when TK and JG were apparently accompanied by an army of financial advisers, legal advisers and presumably their new-found friends from Perella Weinberg, it would be fascinating to learn what those ‘Chinese whispers’ might be saying now.
Perhaps when they start crunching those likely OIP numbers together with the long-term price of oil, they will be getting some very large numbers indeed. And perhaps whoever is choosing to back Rex has done some careful number-crunching too, and is prepared to balance the opportunity of a sizeable out-of-court settlement against the risk of saying goodbye to those £9.5 million of costs.
Yes, today’s news is certainly an intriguing and slightly unnerving turn of events, and no doubt quite a few holders will be Shaik’an. But, with an extremely tough negotiator in the shape of Todd, supported by some of the best advisers in the business in the form of PW, I doubt very much that it will be them.
I have very little doubt that those ‘talks’ would have been be very OIL-PRICE sensitive indeed, and that TK will NOT be ready to sell off GKP cheaply (nor Shaikan and Akri-Bijeel) . Not to anyone!
AIMHO and please DYOR.
GLA, scaramouche
============
Kamran Karadaghi @kmkaradaghi
· Open
@vvanwilgenburg why do you think Shia rulers turned from committed federalists to staunch centralists?
Reidar Visser Reidar Visser @reidarvisser
Close
@kmkaradaghi @vvanwilgenburg Was bound to happen. Kurds mistaken in believing sectarian identity could kill ideal of centralism in Iraq.
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5:52 AM - 8 Apr 12 via web · Details
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2h Kamran Karadaghi Kamran Karadaghi @kmkaradaghi
· Open
@reidarvisser @vvanwilgenburg Centralism will never prevail again in Iraq. It is the shortest path to dismantle the country.
2h Ihsan Ihsan @Thawra_city
· Open
@reidarvisser @kmkaradaghi @vvanwilgenburg maybe Kurds shouldn't have supported an ethno sectarian sys when they're not he biggest component
4h Reidar Visser Reidar Visser @reidarvisser
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@vvanwilgenburg Yes. There has been some Maliki reachout to the tribes, but not really to people like Omar al-Jibburi I think.
In reply to Wladimir Wilgenburg
13h Reidar Visser Reidar Visser @reidarvisser
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@seerwan7 @zuhair47 I probably should have added a sarcasm alert
In reply to Seerwan Jafar
13h Reidar Visser Reidar Visser @reidarvisser
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@seerwan7 @AliKadhmawi My impression is Iraqiya got mainly Arab and some Turkmen votes in Kirkuk
In reply to Seerwan Jafar
13h Reidar Visser Reidar Visser @reidarvisser
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@zuhair47 I think Duri's grand idea is that Westerners or Iranians must not be involved in political change in Arab world
In reply to Zuhair Hussain
14h Reidar Visser Reidar Visser @reidarvisser
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Interesting detail from video released today: Iraqi Baathist leader Izzat al-Duri thanks Saudi king for role in Yemen!
16h Reidar Visser Reidar Visser @reidarvisser
· Open
Finally, an Iraqiya politician criticising Qatar and Barzani for sectarian language in name of Sunnis http://www.ninanews.com/arabic/News_Details.asp?ar95_VQ=FKKLFD
15h Ali Kadhmawi Ali Kadhmawi @AliKadhmawi
· Open
@reidarvisser Jibouri's from Hawijah. Kirkuk politics clearly a motivation for comments.
Reidar Visser Reidar Visser @reidarvisser
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@AliKadhmawi Iraqiya won half of the Kirkuk seats in 2010. M
==========
Barzani told «life»: What I heard from Obama Afarahna we may decline to continue al-Maliki as prime minister
Sunday, April 8, 2012
المالكي مترئساً اجتماعاً للحكومة العراقية (أ ف ب).jpg
WASHINGTON - Ali Abdul-Amir
Appears to the President of the Kurdistan region of Iraq, Massoud Barzani, determined to address what he describes as «one person monopolize the government in Iraq and to save democracy emerging from a serious risk in its transformation into a dictatorship is built through the control of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki on all the keys of power in the country».
After meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama and Vice President Joseph Biden at the White House last Wednesday, Barzani said in an interview long to «life» that he would call once back to Arbil to «an urgent meeting attended by Iraqi leaders, to put all issues on the table serious and open away from a courtesy, and in case Maliki's refusal to attend or to deal positively, we will reject the other hand he was president of the Government of Iraq ».
«Life» I asked Barzani on several issues, starting from the current Iraqi crisis does not end with the occurrence of the Kurdistan region between the two wings of the regional crisis and international: Iran and Syria, while stressing that he had sent to Tehran by the 3-day head of the provincial government Nechirvan Barzani to discuss the Iraq crisis, said he did not reach a clear vision on the part of the Syrian opposition in the way of abuse with the «legitimate rights of the Kurds Syria».
The following is the text of the interview:
> In the meeting with President Obama, talks with Vice President Joseph Biden, any concerns reported to them about Iraq, and any position of the U.S. had drawn the Iraqi crisis?
- I explained to them in detail in our view, very Fahemena to know the identity of Iraq, that Iraq wants the Americans to deal with him? What is the position of the Kurdistan region, and transferred to them the position of the province of all aspects of the current crisis and its causes, and what I heard them Afarahna and made me a reassuring commitment to the U.S., which was clear, an Iraq a democratic, pluralistic and federal, and confirmed to me their commitment to Kurdistan and the people of Kurdistan, and this was for me something important, As I explained to them that Iraq is going through a crisis and it needs serious treatment, not a crisis fabricated, but it exists, and you need to be addressed, and this treatment must be backed Iraqi friends of Iraq, it may not have to wait from the United States or any other country in the world to come and find solution to the crisis, so I suggested, and I think that President Obama and Vice President Biden, we have been approved the proposal, to meet Iraqi leaders to save the country, otherwise the situation now is not the option, either repair the situation or other options, survival of the situation as it is not our choice at all. Iraq is heading for disaster, to the return of dictatorship and monopoly power in all state facilities. Is the marginalization of all, as if he was dropping the new regime in Iraq at the hands of a person, while the rest live on the new leader blasts, and this is unacceptable and is not possible. We all fought, all Iraqi political forces struggled and faced the dictatorship of Saddam and made sacrifices in their struggle, may not capture the power at all.
Leaders' Meeting:
Either solutions or all the way
> Are you going to call the option of Iraqi leaders to meet and discuss the crisis. What's the next step?
- When I go back to Kurdistan, I will invite to the meeting of all Iraqi leaders, in Arbil, or anywhere else, it is important to hold a meeting in the presence of all the leaders, to study the situation responsibly, and not to compliment or to find solutions and temporary or killers of the crisis, either radical solutions, or each and every one knows his way. There must be a specific timeframe and short to resolve the crisis, the fact that we are tired of promises and fruitless meetings, the meeting must be serious and decisive, and if they do not respond, there is another interview.
> But al-Maliki refuses to participate in any meeting of the conditions holds, which was the reason for the failure of a «national meeting» in Baghdad, do you expect post-Maliki in a meeting called for by, you want a critical, open and away from any courtesy?
- We want a meeting of the dismantling of the crisis, to repair the situation, the meeting is not just for the meeting, if Maliki's refusal to attend the meeting to resolve the problem, we refuse to stay in power. We must be honest, there is no more room for compliments nor diplomatic, either remedy the situation or face a situation can not accept it, in which one person owns all state facilities and act according to his will, and marginalize others, and remain prime minister, this is not acceptable at all.
Dictatorship of Maliki
> What you consider the rise of al-Maliki obsessive figure on the centers of power, who bears the responsibility? Of silent until it has become unacceptable?
- I hold the other forces of responsibility, I carry more than Maliki. Kept silent and tolerated this behavior, Maliki began in the concentration of power gradually, while others kept silent, busy side issues that came to the things that got him. Now is the Prime Minister, Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces, and I assure you that the military ruler General, and Minister of Defense, Minister of the Interior, Director of Intelligence, and finally asked the Central Bank President appended his organization headed by an independent minister. What is left of the authorities did not concentrating in his hands, and how to be a dictatorship?
> Talk with apprehension about the growth of the Iraqi army, armed, what Akhivkm in that?
- The Constitution says that the Iraqi army belongs to all the people and the balance, and what was supposed to be the number of teams for more than five to six teams, now there are more than 16 band, as well as many of the formations of special forces, are all linked to the Office of the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces , ie, al-Maliki, who oversees the military as well, not the Ministry of Defence and Chief of Staff, nor any military officer is the Office of the Adjutant General, imposed constitutionally that the appointment of a division commander is the approval of Parliament, to ask parliament today, as Chairman and members if the commander of the band and one had to be In this way constitutional. Any breach of this largest of the Constitution? Then the most dangerous from that that the Army is built on the basis of a culture of loyalty to the per person, and this is a disaster, and that there was in the army who thinks that in the case of access to advanced weaponry, the aim would be to pay the Kurds outside Irbil and Salah al-Din (the headquarters of the province), this was within the meeting of the General.
> In the presence of al-Maliki?
- Yes, his presence, and was told that with the F-16 jets and tanks advanced outside Erbil, the Kurds will pay, once again, and I have accurate information and unconfirmed reports that this was said in the presence of al-Maliki, who did not refuse to talk serious like that? This should stop the deterioration of the situation in Iraq, and stop these dangerous attempts to restore the dictatorship.
* But the Army Chief of Staff and the commander of the Air Force of the Kurds?
- Yes, but without the powers have become effective. Exist by name and without any real effectiveness, whether in the decision-making or in implementation. And disarmament are the powers of the officers constantly Kurds.
> Says the parties in favor of the owners, not what you go to him, they make it an event of the Arab summit in Baghdad, an example that the Kurds have strongly growing in Iraq, the chairman of the summit was President Jalal Talabani, President of the Conference of Arab foreign ministers Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, and even the conference Economic Summit that preceded his trade minister, a Kurd, as well? What do you see that?
- Tell you a story, when he became Sheikh Mahmoud grandson (a historical figure large Kurdish) the property of Kurdistan, after the British decided grant Kurdistan the right to independence, he went to him representative of the British government and told him: His Majesty You are the king and I am advisor, appointments and the police and the money all I supervised, and other issues from the jurisdiction of His Majesty the King. Sheikh grandson replied: Mr. Chancellor come to be king and I will be a consultant. Maliki is working in a consultant be appointed by corps commanders, not the president knows this, nor the parliament is known, which is what should be his final opinion, hold arms deals billions and no one knows, builds an army of a million people to be loyal to the owners itself without known Chairman of Parliament of the Republic and how it's done. Acting with state funds as he pleases and no one knows, a patent granted to the accused as innocent and accuses the judiciary to follow a simple sign of his office. Here we ask: Who benefits from practically the existence of three Kurds in the activities of the presidency of the Arab summit? Maliki is the topic that was used for its usefulness.
Disagreement over the conduct and curriculum
> Barzani in a frank and robust in its response to the phenomenon of singling out al-Maliki to power, we find that his colleague President Talabani seems closer to the courtesy-Maliki. Question here is: Are you going Talabani in the path itself about Maliki?
- There may be a type of variation in views, but in the end result we're in agreement and there is no dispute. Perhaps the contrast in the way of solution, but the result is no disagreement between us at all.
> Talking about losers in Baghdad, was part of a press conference to the President Jmek «Islamic Supreme Council» al-Hakim, who did not respond to your fingertips, which was considered acceptable by. How do we explain this? Is it meant a new alliance between the Kurds and Shiites, but without the Maliki?
- Alliance exists and even with the party «call», which respect the sacrifices and admire her, we are not at odds with him at all, and some have tried to explain the dispute like a personal, never dispute is over the behavior and the methodology, on how to run the government, whether the ruling Sunni Kurd or a Shiite, I personally I do not have any problem with Maliki. That portray the situation that we stand against the Shia, in the form of categorically reject it, we are allies, the Shiites, we are partners in injustice, and the date of our common struggle is the highest that Amessh one. I said, Shiites, who Arafnahm stood with us always, Shia al-Hakim, the Shiite Al martyrs Sadrain (Muhammad Baqir, Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr), and stood with us, and were with us through thick and thin, and we support them in the same trench, and this I repeat now, too. Malicious attempts to find a rift between the Kurds and Shiites, which will not work when one, God willing.
> There is broad public opinion in Iraq, it is almost a trend prevalent in the Arab stand against Shiite Kurds are waging their campaigns, media and political involvement, seemed to her that does not seriously influence the Shia allies (Al-Hakim al-Sadr and all) in the face?
- On the other hand there is overwhelming popular D against al-Maliki and his policy in Kurdistan, if he wants to breach or destroy the historic relationship between the Kurds and Shiites is held responsible. We are brothers we send our message to the Shiites, and they said we are with you in the same trench, but if they will fall under the influence of some deception, understand who is to blame. We ask as a matter of concern, what did the Shiite al-Maliki to the masses? What has changed from the services in their cities? We demand to improve the situation in the whole of Iraq. For the case to the Iraqi and Kurdish as well, if it was the Shiites who stands against me, or from the Sunnis and the Kurds, it is up to them, I am a believer and confident, as I say and what I do.
I will call a referendum for the Kurdish people
> From this, Are you going to set up a new coalition takes no-confidence in the Maliki government in parliament?
- I will make every effort to hold a meeting at which I pointed to him and to find a solution to this crisis, but if the meeting did not happen and each argues under various pretexts, I'm not ready and the Kurdish people is not ready to watching and waiting for the promises sterile. We will have our last decision, and must not be taken this threat or blackmail, I'm serious about this matter: I shall revert to the Kurdish people and Ostftih.
> Referendum on Kurdish state?
- We try to correct the situation in Iraq first, the implementation of what is stated in the Constitution, and determine the controls of the rule and the establishment of a genuine partnership, presence of government ministers is not a partnership, the Ministers staff at al-Maliki, and this is unacceptable, also there is Article 140 (for resolving the contested areas) , oil and gas law, the peshmerga, and above all commitment to the Constitution, partnership and democracy, and the issuance of rules of procedure regulating the work of the Council of Ministers ... Army a very important issue, can not be what it is: one million people armed to be loyal to one person, this major catastrophe, no one is paying attention to it, so to say that if others were willing to fix the situation, they are welcome, but if they are running away and accept the current situation, This is rejected by us and will not be our choice at all. I think I can not be explained from this. Whatever the price can not accept the return of dictatorship to Iraq, and if we fail to stop the dictatorship will not be with Iraq ruled by a dictator.
Kurdistan Development ... And chemical weapons
> The issue of oil and gas or issues, but there are those who say that the dispute it is the cause of the crisis, but it's the result of the warning made by the Iraqi government to the company «Exxon Mobil» American giant of the consequences of signing a contract with you without her knowledge, you pulled the company out of work in Kurdistan?
- The problem before the advent of «Exxon Mobil», but the oldest ones, In order to be frank and clear, there are those who stand against the development of the prosperity of Kurdistan, and not a question of constitutionality or legality of contracts. We have repeatedly said that we are committed to the Constitution: the oil and gas belongs to all Iraqi people, in February (February 2007) agreed on a draft law ratified by the later in Parliament, and become effective, but they changed it and it includes a supplement says: If you did not pass this law in the parliament until May ( May) of the same year, each party has the right to sign contracts with foreign companies, this agreement between us and al-Maliki, and when it comes to production, let's Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani to participate in the opening, especially the tube connection with Iraqi oil exported via Turkey, but in my opinion to stand against the development of the Kurdistan region and its development no less aggressive for aggressive use of chemical weapons and carried out the «Anfal» against the Kurds. Hostility that he himself and the same culture.
In terms of «Exxon Mobil» ... In May 2011 I wrote a letter to al-Maliki told him where the U.S. company requests to negotiate with the province, and this is as I see a big help for Iraq, I hope that you are familiar with and if you have any comments please let me know, and if we got with the company to the final results Vsatalek them, and with the entry negotiations to the critical stages, sent another letter to the owners and explained to him where we have arrived at important results with the company and the great good of Iraq, and Ouselna news it that this is actually a good thing for Iraq.
Maliki disavows
> Is not an official letter?
- Not through an intermediary between us, so, after today, we must all be written and signed agreement, because al-Maliki, with ease, is backing out of the agreement. Suddenly, the Resurrection, remarks provocative, threatening of al-Shahristani, while the government is supposed to be a national partnership, and not al-Shahristani is the government, and does not represent only the Iraqi government, representing only himself, and issues of government determined by discussions within the Council of Ministers, not to appoint Shahristani himself ruler of Iraq. This leads us to the question: half a trillion dollars (500 billion) income to the budget for Iraq since 2003 until now, Where did this money, and shall be spent where it went? There are documents looted in state funds and the people, but we remained silent on all these issues, and now must be to brief the people on all these facts.
When threatened this company or that because of the work in Kurdistan, it is not acceptable, as it is unacceptable to behave as if al-Shahristani and Kurdish subsidiary. From here, I said that the rulers in Baghdad failures and I say again here: How much are the hours that link the electricity to the Iraqi citizens?
Shahristani will not governs the Kurdistan
> Al-Shahristani, accused the authorities of the Kurdistan region of smuggling oil?
- I asked for the formation of a joint committee of the federal parliament and Kurdistan parliament to investigate allegations of al-Shahristani, Iraq at the level of achievement as a whole, what happens to the oil sector? What are the achievements? Where did he go more than twenty billion dollars of electricity? On al-Shahristani said that he knows will not governs the Kurdistan according to his will, for this is not clear.
> Politicians and observers in response to al-Shahristani, as if deliberately hostile to you, so your experience may not be an incentive for the Kurds in neighboring countries? Does this mean that he represents a particular agenda?
- Yes Shahristani hostile to the Kurds, it has an agenda in this position for us in the form of anti-traveled, but do not accuse the implementation of the agenda for the external party.
> But when there is a press conference in Baghdad, a deputy prime minister and to his part, Iraqi Oil Minister, can you be driven to implement his agenda without the knowledge of his direct supervisor, that Prime Minister al-Maliki, in accusing the province of smuggling oil and inflict Iraq loss of about $ 5 billion?
- Yes, it was with the consent of al-Maliki and his blessing, we have no doubt that it was encouraging al-Maliki. He says that he always carried out the policy of the state? What does this mean? Any state? Does this mean that the others served to them? They are part of the government, not the government?
> In Washington, you ended the contract with «Exxon Mobil» to confirm?
- Certainly I met the President of the company, and is committed to the agreement with us or the health of the rumors about the cancellation of the contract under the influence of the threat of the Iraqi central government and our relationship with her sophisticated.
> To return to the political crisis: Who are the parties that will deepen its alliance with Barzani in his decision to confront what he calls the dictatorship of Maliki?
- Tell each believer in democracy, federalism, co-existence and acceptance of others, we are allies, whatever national or sectarian in the task of addressing the return of dictatorship to Iraq.
Iran and al-Maliki
> This call went head the Kurdistan Regional Government to Tehran a few days ago, do you expect the approval to change the Iranian al-Maliki?
- I am against any force regional or international intervention in the selection of the Iraqi government, or its president, Iran was or others, and this position is clear and strong, is not entitled to one to interfere in the selection of the Iraqi government, as I call as well, to equal relations good with Iran or others, But to interfere with this or that party in the selection of the Iraqi government it is unacceptable, and I can not accept it at all.
> But there is an Iraqi and a regional consensus even if it is declared that Iran is actually intervened in the selection of the President of the Iraqi government?
- Even if it happened, it must stop and change. Iraqis should decide who governs them.
> What drive from Tehran, Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani?
- لم ألتقه الى الآن، لكنه نقل الى الايرانيين وجهة نظرنا بصراحة، وبلا شك فإنه عاد بملاحظات الإخوة الايرانيين، وهي في بعض الامور تتقاطع معنا وتتوافق ايضاً.
الكرد في سورية
> موقفكم مختلف في التعاطي مع الاوضاع في سورية، وثمة من يقول انك شخصياً وضعت بعض التحديدات امام مشاركة الكرد الواسعة في الانتفاضة السورية؟ Is this true?
- الكرد في سورية محرومون من حق المواطنة، الآخرون يثورون من اجل المطالبة بالسلطة، الكرد يناضلون من اجل الحصول على حق المواطنة، هذا فرق كبير. سابقاً بذلنا جهداً مع الحكومة السورية كي تغير من سياستها الناكرة لحقوق الكرد، مع الأسف الشديد لم يتغير اي شيء. المعارضة السورية الآن تتحدث باسم الثوار، لكن ليس لهذه المعارضة اي مشروع واضح حيال حقوق الشعب الكردي في سورية، لذلك فالموقف الكردي يتوقف على هذا المشروع عند المعارضة السورية.
> حتى المجلس الذي يقوده السيد برهان غليون؟
- Yes, even the Council does not have a project or a clear vision, there is recognition of shy but it is not explicit and clear the rights of the Kurds. But with this The Kurds participated in the demonstrations, protests and demanding to drop the system.
> What has informed Mr. Glion when I met him in Irbil?
- First, we do not decide on behalf of the Kurds of Syria, we support them, they decide to ally themselves with those, but I spoke with Mr. Glion, frankly, and reached him after the meeting that there is no vision they have in how to deal with the Kurdish issue. Kurds will not join the opposition if there were not a guarantee of fundamental and radical change in their status in Syria, and be recognized.
> This is not even in the conference «Syria's friends» Istanbul?
- No ... Only mentioned shy of the Kurds, even if no Ivkrōh for the better.
> How do you see the Iraqi government fears the arrival of the forces now Almentvdh to power in Syria?
- To be sure, the situation in Syria affect Iraq, Valajuh year believe that the survival of the Syrian regime's ruling, it means an extension of a Shiite from Iran to Lebanon, and this is a threat to them, and vice versa as well, Valajuh Shiites seem to think that if the fall of this system and was an alternative Sunni him, it will be an extension of the Sunni world, and this is a major threat to them, especially in Iraq and in Iran ... This is the truth. اما بالنسبة الينا في اقليم كردستان، فهذا صراع مذهبي لن نتدخل فيه، ولن نسمح بذلك. نحن طرف في صراع سياسي، لكن لسنا طرفا في صراع مذهبي.
> لكنكم لستم في موضع يمكنكم فيه النجاة من تأثيرات الصراع اذا ما مضى في الاتجاه هذا؟
- نعم ولكن نحن نحاول، نحن نرفض الاصطفاف مع جهة معينة اذا كان الصراع مذهبياً، لكن في الصراع نحن نكون مع من يتبنى الديموقراطية والحقوق القومية للشعب الكردي.
لا أثق بقضاء عراقي
> Not far from this conflict «sectarian» comes the issue of the establishment of Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi accused of supporting terrorism in Kurdistan, you become a burden Hashemi you?
- First, this is not Mkhltna, Hashemi, Vice President of the Republic and to now has been convicted, al-Maliki himself says that he has files several years ago against Hashemi, why is it covered? Why he was allowed to come to Kurdistan? I say again the problem is not my problem, but with the arrival of man to the region, it seemed as if everyone Atakbh a fugitive, while I take on his protection. Why they let him out of Baghdad? Why ask me to arrest him as they did not do it and men among them? I am not defending al-Hashemi, I defend the principle of partnership, you can be so easily beaten a host of other partner and other political bloc? Then I spend talking about? Judiciary, which transforms the innocent accused signal is simple, and accuse the innocent in the same way? I am no longer confident that the judiciary, the judiciary is not independent and politically motivated and trajectory. For that matter, even if they said was a judicial, judiciary lost credibility.
مع هذا وللخروج من هذا المأزق وللخروج من هذا الإحراج الذي وقعنا فيه جميعاً اقترحت ان تقوم الرئاسات الثلاث، ورئيس القائمة العراقية، بالاجتماع واتخاذ قرار: يعتقل الرجل؟ يسفّر الى خارج البلاد؟ يبقى في اقليم كردستان؟ بريء؟ متهم؟ تنقل محكمته الى كركوك؟... كلها رفضت! ثم اذا كان اتهامه مؤكداً، فلماذا يبعث إلي المالكي بإشارة: سهلوا مهمته كي يهرب الى تركيا؟ هذا استفزني الى اقصى حد. هذا اعتبرته اهانة كبيرة جداً. الهاشمي حر، لا اطلب منه ان يغادر كردستان ولا اعتقله ولا ارفض عودته الى كردستان اذا ما قرر العودة. الموضوع ليس عندي، ولا اريد ان اظهر وكأنني الوحيد الذي يخالف القانون وهم جميعاً يسعون الى تطبيقه.
المالكي يعرف جيداً معنى ان تستضيف كردستان شخصاً يلجا اليها، فهو كان في الاقليم وأكبر شرف لكردستان ان تكون معقلاً للعراقيين الاحرار وستظل كذلك. اما بالنسبة الى الهاشمي، فعلى الرئاسات ان تتخذ قراراً وحينها سأرحب بتنفيذه مهما كان، ولكن ارفض تحميلي المسؤولية في تسليم الرجل، لأن المشكلة ليست مشكلتي بل مشكلتهم.
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Kurdish govt confirms received market abuse emails
Sun, Apr 08 05:58 AM EDT
By Tom Bergin
LONDON, April 8 (Reuters) - The government of the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq has confirmed that it received emails from a senior JP Morgan banker that the UK financial regulator said constituted market abuse.
The banker, Ian Hannam, who was JPMorgan's London-based global chairman of equity capital markets, was later fined 450,000 pounds ($712,400) by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) and has since resigned.
Sources had told Reuters on Friday that Ashti Hawrami, Minister of Natural Resources for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), was the previously unidentified "Mr. A" who received emails from Hannam containing privileged information on the banker's client, Heritage Oil. The FSA said the information could have been used to unfair advantage in the markets, email to Mr. A represented a serious matter partly because Mr. A could have advised his organisation to buy a stake in Heritage.
The KRG said it had contact with Hannam "at various levels" during the period when the emails were sent.
"The KRG confirms that the information identified by the FSA contained in the two emails was unsolicited, and further confirms that neither the KRG, nor any representative of the KRG, responded to that information or took any action as a result of that information," it said on Saturday.
The first email, sent in September 2008 to Mr A, contained information about a potential takeover bid for Heritage, while a second, a month later, was sent to Mr. A and an unidentified Mr. B and included information on an oil find Heritage had made.
Around the time of the emails, the KRG did buy a stake in another Kurdish-focused explorer, Norway's DNO International .
Hannam, a gruff former special forces soldier, is one of Britain's most successful investment bankers and is appealing against the fine.
Heritage has declined requests to comment on the matter.
The Kurdish region has emerged as an area of keen interest for international oil companies after years when it was mainly only a focus for small, independent players such as Heritage.
However, the area's image has been damaged by a series of high-profile lawsuits and regulatory probes in Norway and the UK.
A spokesman for the KRG declined to provide further details on the matter.
"The KRG considers this to be a UK regulatory matter between the FSA and Mr Hannam, and has nothing further to add," the statement added.
Spokesmen for Hannam and JPMorgan have declined to comment.
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Analysis: Exxon committed to Kurdistan
Iraqi workers walk in West Qurna oilfield in Iraq's southern province of Basra November 28, 2010. (ATEF HASSAN/Reuters)
Iraqi workers walk in West Qurna oilfield in Iraq's southern province of Basra November 28, 2010. (ATEF HASSAN/Reuters)
By Ben Van Heuvelen of Iraq Oil Report
Published April 12, 2012
In the span of a week, Iraqi Oil Minister Abdul Karim Luaibi went from indicating that ExxonMobil would be welcomed back into an upcoming contract auction to raising doubts, again, that the firm could still be blacklisted over its six contracts with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
Exxon had sent letters, Luaibi claimed, promising to put the projects in the semi-autonomous north on hold. But there are several indications that Exxon is proceeding, however cautiously, with its work.
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National Wednesday 11 April 2012 - 07:30
Iraq’s biggest oil field entrusted to Maltese drilling expert
Iraq’s biggest oil field – also expected to be its most prolific – has been entrusted to a Maltese drilling expert, who earned himself an entire article on Germany’s influential ‘Der Spiegel’ this week.
With over eight billion barrels of extractable oil, East Baghdad is what’s known as a super-giant oil field.
Karl Stagno-Navarra
54-year-old Raymond Mallia has worked in Libya Kazakhstan and Bangladesh, and on oil rigs off the coast of Kuwait and Iran. It was there, he said, that he saw the first cruise missiles that were fired by US destroyers at Saddam Hussein's Iraq in the spring of 2003: "At the time, I couldn't have imagined that it would take nearly 10 years before we also seriously started to dig here."
In the palm groves a few kilometres east of Baghdad- an area where for years foreigners would only venture in heavily armed convoys - Raymond Mallia is now drilling for the heavy oil of the East Baghdad field.
With over eight billion barrels of extractable oil, East Baghdad is what's known as a super-giant oil field. There are only a few dozen oil fields of this size in the world, and even in this exclusive club East Baghdad is an exception: part of the field lies under the city of Baghdad, with its 7 million residents - specifically, under the Shiite district of Sadr City, which was the scene of particularly brutal sectarian fighting.
Der Spiegel says that despite all the cynicism that a career in the oil fields tends to invite, Mallia remains upbeat and optimistic about what he's doing here. "Iraq is an absolute hit in the oil world," he says. "The Chinese and the Indians need this stuff, and the Iraqis have it. They'd have to do just about everything wrong to keep this country from booming in a few years."
Day and night, Mallia uses his drilling rig to drive one rod after the other into the loamy soil. He has drilled two wells: the first one is already producing 2,000 barrels a day, and the second one has just struck oil at a depth of 3,600 meters (11,800 feet).
Two young Canadian logging engineers use sensors to calculate the expected yield. It will take hundreds of such wells before the East Baghdad oil field can be exploited at anything close to capacity. Since it lies in a densely populated area, the work is proceeding much slower than in the desert regions of southern Iraq.
Mallia's boss, Majid Abdullah, 61, has also worked abroad for 30 years. One year ago, he decided to finally return to his native country.
If he was only 30, he wouldn't have done it, Abdullah said, but now he's willing to risk spending the rest of his career in his volatile homeland in the hope of a few stabile years. "East Baghdad is for me the most convenient oil field of my life," he said. "I can drive home after every shift and sleep in my own bed."
Abdullah's confidence doesn't have much of a political spin - it's purely an oil man's view. As he knows, especially after having to flee the turmoil of revolutionary Libya, producing oil is not enough to build a sustainable economy and establish a stable State. It requires a modicum of security, and legal and political predictability. And it necessitates pipelines, pumps, oil depots and secure ports to export the crude oil.
He is thankful that the Iraqis have started expanding their port facilities. In early March, at the mouth of the Shatt al-Arab River, the first of four new mooring stations went into operation.
They are colossal installations, attached to deep-sea buoys, where oil tankers can be filled. Until now, Iraq has had only one functioning oil terminal, which was crucial to the economic survival of the entire country: 95% of the national budget is financed by oil exports - and 80% of this oil was pumped into the tankers via the eight filling stations at the Basra terminal.
===============
Iraq and the Kurdistan Alliance in favour of sacking shahrestani resigns
11/04/2012 15:49
Baghdad, 11 April (aknews)- she turns the Kurdistan Alliance and they supported the sacking Wednesday by Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Affairs of Hussain Shahristani background "poor" management of the energy sector (petroleum and electricity) during his time at pyramid of responsibility.
Parliamentary Committee revealed investigative contracts today for MEW (aknews) on its recommendation to sack Shahristani and five others less than electric energy reality degradation background report commissioned by.
He who headed farm shahrestani. "independent"--under State law coalition led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki-oil Minister in the previous Government and the Department of the Ministry of electricity agency after sacking former roshd stayed. waterfall
The Kurdistan Alliance finds most political blocs criticized performance in energy file Shahristani, Iraq that his dismissal was necessary after demonstrating its inability to improve the reality of energy.
Alliance member and a member of the investigative Committee on electricity contracts file alatroshi of Kurdistan, Farhad News (aknews) that "two years ago, the Presidency attaches Shahristani Energy Commission accepted ministerial and management of the oil Ministry in the previous Government there was no improvement on the energy file."
Alatroshi said that "Shahristani is not valid for the post of Deputy Prime Minister for energy and the time had come to change others."
And alatroshi that "even an increase in oil production in General has spent money on this sector but a slight improvement."
Alatroshi expressed the hope that "the political side are the dimensions of the issue of removal from Office that Shahristani file has nothing to do with disagreements with the Kurdistan Alliance but command on Shahrastani contracts for delivery of fake and other figures are well documented."
And between alatroshi "there are people offended by the National Alliance of actions important information are Shahristani that Committee which was formed to investigate the electricity Ministry contracts consisting of eight members, headed by a member of the National Alliance, where one member of the Kurdistan Alliance."
The Iraqi list supports change or any other Minister Shahristani, regardless of political affiliation that the topic relates to the provision of services.
Spokesman for the Iraqi national accord movement housed in the Iraqi list for Hadi alzalmy (aknews) that "the Iraqi list have shown a lot of observations on the performance of Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Affairs Hussain Shahristani and Iraqi's observations were documented by numbers".
"A chapter in sacking Shahristani whether his return to the House of representatives and Iraqi parties will dismiss Shahristani and attached supporting alternative energy portfolio management."
And between alzalmy to "energy and sacking Shahristani file should not be subject to political compromises that file linked to services for citizens."
Has accused the Iraqi list led by Iyad Allawi based file energy (petroleum and electricity) to waste millions of dollars in contracts and did not see any results worth mentioning only "flimsy promises or the production shameful."
Blamed Iraqi time "Shahristani" loss of millions of dollars as a result of the failure to implement the plan to increase production by the interim Government.
Supreme Islamic Council says one of the poles of the National Alliance that its position of whether to withdraw confidence from Shahristani depends on "evidence" which will be presented at voting session.
Council member Mohammed Yasser (aknews) "we are with the Constitution and the law if there is evidence of the fact of a waste of money and corruption accused Hussein Shahristani or any other Minister, regardless of party affiliation, we stand with this evidence and if there are malicious issues, we will stand against them."
Yasser said that "the interests of the Iraqi people must be above all, cannot prevent the removal of any administrator if implicated in corruption and mismanagement."
Says Al-Kurd political components of most criticized the performance of the latter is a source Shahristani of contention between Baghdad and Erbil.
And intensified controversy recently about this file after refusing to Kurdistan draft hydrocarbon law approved by the Iraqi Government and sent to the House for approval along with stopping oil exports earlier this month.
There is disagreement between Arbil and Baghdad oil contracts signed by 41 government territory since 2007 and until now Baghdad says it entered into in the absence of transparency and described as "false"
The Federal Government has been pushing in the direction that all oil contracts signed earlier by the Iraqi oil Ministry, while demanding the territory greater powers in this regard so that the right to sign contracts without reference to Baghdad.
From: Raman brusick. Pen: Morteza Al Yousef
========
Iraq suggests Exxon deals with Kurds could stand
By Adam Schreck
AP Business Writer / April 12, 2012
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BAGHDAD—Iraq may be open to letting Exxon Mobil Corp. keep some of its disputed oil deals in the self-ruled Kurdish region if they and similar contracts meet Baghdad's approval, the country's top energy official said Thursday.
Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Hussain al-Shahristani said Iraq has received assurances from Exxon that it will not begin working in the autonomous northern territory for now to give the federal government and the Kurds a chance "to resolve their differences."
Al-Shahristani's comments, made during an interview with The Associated Press, suggest Baghdad is softening its opposition to the deals signed by the world's largest publicly traded energy company.
"The Ministry of Oil has decided to give them some time on the condition that they don't start any work on the ground," he said.
Officials have previously said Irving, Texas-based Exxon agreed to freeze the Kurdish contract, but did not say what that meant in practice. They have not yet made good on threats to blacklist it from future deals.
Al-Shahristani said Exxon's agreement and dozens of similar Kurdish oil contracts might be recognized by Iraq's government if authorities in Baghdad are allowed to review and possibly amend them, with Cabinet approval.
"These differences have to be sorted out, and the sooner the better," he said. "The federal government is willing to engage in serious discussions with the (Kurdish regional government) and review any contract that has been signed."
Exxon's contract with the Kurds allows it to explore in six patches in northern Iraq, including land claimed by both the Kurds and Arabs in Ninevah province.
What is not up for negotiation, al-Shahristani stressed, are the three oil exploration blocks in disputed territory. Only the three zones wholly in Kurdish control might be eligible for Baghdad's blessing.
A senior official in the Kurdish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources said Thursday the region's contracts with Exxon are still valid. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to talk to the media.
Exxon's agreement with the Kurds sparked fury in Baghdad when it was announced in November. It is being watched closely by other oil majors, including France's Total SA, which said in February it is considering investing in the Kurdish north.
Iraq insists any deals signed with international oil companies be approved by the federal government. It deems any contracts signed unilaterally with the Kurds illegal.
Dozens of mostly small and medium sized companies, including Norway's DNO International and Austria's OMV, have inked exploration deals with the Kurds. Marathon Oil Corp. and Murphy Oil Corp. are among the U.S. companies with operations in the region.
The business there is not without risks. Kurdish authorities earlier this month halted oil exports over a still-unresolved payment dispute with Baghdad.
=========
UPDATE 1-Sinopec Shanghai has not processed Iranian crude this yr -CFO
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Tue Apr 10, 2012 7:01am EDT
* Iranian oil met 10 percent of total crude processed last year
* Will continue to be cautious of Iranian crude imports -CFO (Adds comments)
(Reuters) - China's Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemicals has processed no Iranian crude this year, a top official said on Tuesday, after its parent company cut imports from the Islamic Republic in a dispute over annual contract terms.
China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, is Iran's top crude importer, buying 20 percent of the Islamic Republic's exports. Iran is China's No. 3 oil supplier after the Saudi Arabia and Angola.
Last year, Sinopec Shanghai refined about 22,000 barrels per day of Iranian oil, accounting for about 10 percent of its total throughput of 220,000 bpd, Ye Guohua, the company's chief financial officer, told reporters at an earnings briefing.
"Originally, our plan was to use the same amount of Iranian crude this year as last year," Sinopec Shanghai's chairman, Rong Guangdao, said. "We import our crude through other companies such as Sinopec Group. But we have not received a single cargo of Iranian crude this year."
"Iranian crude currently is a rather sensitive subject. The U.S. is imposing sanction on Iran's oil export," Ye said. "This year, we will continue to be cautious about Iranian crude imports."
Sinopec Shanghai would be cautious about processing Iranian crude for the rest of the year due to the political sensitivities associated with imports from Tehran and to ensure supply security as sanctions make trading difficult with Tehran.
China, India, Japan and South Korea are the four biggest buyers of Iranian crude in Asia, and all of them have cut imports as the United States and Europe tighten sanctions to force the Islamic Republic to abandon its nuclear programme. That is making it hard for refiners to find shippers, insurers to underwrite trade and banks to clear payments.
China's Unipec, the trading arm of top Asian refiner Sinopec, and Zhuhai Zhenrong slashed imports from Iran by nearly half in the first quarter because of differences over terms of annual contracts.
From April, Unipec will start taking the same volumes it did last year, which effectively means a reduction of about 14 percent in annual imports.
China, Japan and South Korea have together cut imports from Tehran by 22 percent, or 279,000 bpd, to 940,000 bpd, in the first two months of the year, according to data compiled by Reuters.
China's crude imports from Iran fell 21.5 percent in the first two months to 395,000, according to customs data.
Of the total amount of crude the company processed last year, 52 percent was from the Middle East, nearly 20 percent from Africa, 11.6 percent from China, 9.69 percent from Russia, 5.7 percent from Latin America and the remaining from Indonesia.
"Iranian crude accounts for a relatively small portion of crude we use so we can easily find a substitute," Ye said.
The company's net profit plunged to 956 million yuan last year from 2.77 billion yuan in 2010 due to heavy refining losses as a result of China's control of domestic oil products prices and surging international crude prices.
The company also said petrochemical demand was hurt by a slowdown in China's property and automobile markets last year. (Reporting by Charlie Zhu, Writing by Manash Goswami; Editing by Himani Sarkar)
==================
Author bonobo77 View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted Thursday 12:16
Subject Pantomime Time
((The telling of a story without words, by means of bodily movements, gestures, and facial expressions.))
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 72 times.
Message
We’ve been here before when the trolls come out to play.
Let’s take November 23rd, 2011 as an example.
Here’s some cautionary ‘advice’ on this BB from those seeking to stop us losing money in GKP when the SP last experienced a pronounced retrace (from 202p to 143p) -
‘130p party tomorrow. See you there.’
‘DOW -236 points. Looking very grim.’
‘Euro on ‘Death Watch’. Hope nobody listens to rampers and took out T20s’
‘The SP is dropping more than 5% a day’
‘I don’t see a t/o for years.’
‘Oh dear, down again tomorrow as more investors pull out.’
‘Where’s the next support … you got it, there AIN’T one!’
‘Maybe I should just sell all my shares and stick it in the bank account!’
‘The dog’s rear legs have gone … what did I tell you … 130s by Friday, if Mr Al Sharistani cracks his whip before then its back to 110p or less. Drip drip drip, no thats not me, thats the sound of your losses accumulating. 3D.’
‘(GKP) dropped in value by 30% inside 10 days and looking weaker by the day it's greedy one track minded PI's who have their self to blame.
You have had warnings but were too greedy to listen.’
‘£1 would be a nice entry point’
‘It does look like the end of the world. No news to alleviate the pain, looks absolutely deadly.’
‘What's going to prop up GKP?’
Then ...
SP 4 weeks later – 190p (+30%)
SP 7 weeks later – 309p (+115%)
SP 2 months later – hit 450p
These guys only come out to play on the retraces and amplify any PI jitters. They know that the dips are a good time to buy and they’ll do what they can to grab shares as cheaply as possible. It’s pantomime stuff and bears NO relation to the company, its activities, its fundamentals or its prospects of t/o. If you haven’t already worked all that out, and you are serious about INVESTING, then I suggest you learn quickly. And use that ignore button.
==========
Wed 08:30 Apr18/ 2012
Re: KICE pipeline to start 2012
GKP.L
37UP
Carlos, that's news to me (and encouraging). Here's the recent common consensus on the KICE pipeline -
March 28, 2012 – Genel:
‘KICE pipeline expected to be commissioned and operational by year end 2013’
http://www.genelenergy.com/admin/resimler/detay_resim/tr_inv.pdf
March 28, 2012 – Afren:
‘Construction of the KICE pipeline (expected to be commissioned in 2013), will have an initial capacity of 420 MBOPD when completed.’
http://www.b2i.us/profiles/investor/ResLibraryView.asp?ResLibraryID=52800&BzID=1977&g=112&Nav=1&LangID=1&s=0
March 07, 2012 – Credit Suisse Note on Genel that pegs completion in 2014
‘Risks –
Delays to KICE pipeline construction - Taq Taq is currently producing c75kbpd (gross) and Genel plans to increase production to 200kbpd by 2014. Oil is currently trucked 135km to Khurmala or 255km to Fishkabur (Turkish border) and is then pumped into the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline. Production is restricted due to trucking limitations (120kbd), but Genel and Addax are in discussions with the KRG to build a new 400kbpd pipeline (Kurdistan Iraq Crude Export or KICE) by 2014 that will tie in to the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline near Fishkabur. Any delays in the completion of the KICE pipeline would prevent Genel/Addax from reaching the plateau target on Taq Taq.’
Some good background on KICE from BHP12 –
I'm sure you've all seen this Jan '12 presentation on Genel's website. Nevertheless I just want it to post it for those who haven't seen it yet (in that case I think you should have a look).
It shows what cunning plans there are in place to divert all the oil away from Kurdistan in the direction of Ceyhan in the south of Turkey via a.o. the KICE pipeline project, the new local "Kurdish M6 Hydrocarbon motorway".
Soon supermajors like Exxon, Chevron, Shell, Sinopec etc, will start putting serious money (if not done already) into the construction of this major export network in the direction of safe(r) havens together with the Kurdistan government - all part of greater plans to be able to export some stunning 1 Million BOPD by 2015. The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline will become a very wanted export network, where all the currently locally present oil companies defenitely want to tie into. It will simply become booming business within a few years time - providing the region remains reasonable stable. Finding oil is one thing, being able to bring it on the market at relatively low cost and in a relatively 'politically safe' manner is another.
http://www.genelenergy.com/admin/resimler/detay_resim/macquaries_explorers_conference_jan
================
Author Bah Bah Black Sheep View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted 2012-03-20 07:24
Subject Re: Quick Q for BBBS / Gramacho / other geos View parent message
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 296 times.
Message
Hello Robbean, about your questions and comments as follows:
=====
"Quick question- I have been reflecting on the excellent news of oil flowing on the other side of the NW fault towards Sheikh Adi (and this oil being 'in communication with' the other side of the fault). Am I right in thinking that (1) this bodes well for the Sheikh Adi-2 drill, and (2) is there a potential double whammy (A serious or devastating setback) of excitement here if the jurassic owc is established at 2230m or below? Specifically, oil is likely to flow more easily from other parts of Sheikh Adi (without need for fraccing / acid) AND OiP for Sheikh Adi will receive a substantial upgrade if owc is found at 2230m?
At the moment, all the focus is understandably on Shaikan but I wonder whether increased OiP, news of flow from NW of the Shaikan fault AND our 80% working interest in Sheikh Adi will start featuring more prominently in analyst valuations...?"
=====
Your first paragraph is very straightforward, I agree with everything you surmise - and some! I was truly amazed that most of the 'professional' analysts did not recognise the most significant piece of information in GKP's last Operational Update. I posted immediately after the RNS with the brief statement "Shaikan and Sheikh Adi connected ?", fully expecting that the 'professional' analysts would expand on this statement. Alas, only proactiveinvestors came close to even reporting on the aspect of communication across the fault (in their interview with Ewen Ainsworth). Consequently, I felt obliged to 'spell it out' in a follow-up post (where some readers will have observed that I removed the '?' from the thread title):
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AGKP.L&display=discussion&action=detail&id=9426625
So, to 'spell it out' further, the communication across that fault bodes well not just for Sheikh Adi 2, but also for the entire Sheikh Adi structure, and most likely Ber Bahr and Sariyah as well (the 'bigger picture' connectivity will boil down to what the 3D seismic shows). The big picture connectivity is very much inter-related with the OWC depth, and now that it is known that there is connectivity across that fault, then the Shaikan OWC will also apply on both sides of the fault. So yes, the Shaikan OWC will be immediately applicable to Sheikh Adi - and any other structures (e.g. Ber Bahr, Sariyah) that are also shown to be interconnected from the 3D seismic on the north side of that fault. I have posted about the big picture many times before, the last time within this post:
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AGKP.L&display=discussion&action=detail&id=9281185
where I wrote (I have corrected mis-labelled slide numbers in the original post):
==========
I was going to stop 'Potential OIP' here. But I just heard a question from cyberspace saying 'BBBS - how much OIP will be proven by the end of SH-6?'. Ok, if you insist, but this is ONLY my opinion:
SH-6, if it confirms the OWC in the Jurassic - in accordance with the flank location selected for this well - then there will be TWO major consequences:
((Flank=The section of flesh on the body of a person or an animal between the last rib and the hip; the side.))
1. The OIP at Shaikan will gain a crucial boundary point for Shaikan OIP calculations. This, together with the wide areal coverage of all six Shaikan wells, will allow for quite precise estimates of OIP in the Jurassic. There will also be significant proven volumes in the Upper Triassic, but with an open-ended 'lowest known oil' since the Triassic OWC will remain unknown. Even so, I would expect total proven OIP of the order 18bn (JG) to 21 bn (TK). These volumes should mostly fall within 2P category. IMO.
2. The OWC, if confirmed by SH-6, is NOT only relevant to Shaikan. The Shaikan Jurassic OWC is most likely one and the same as the OWC for the SH-SA-BB mega-structure. Simply because the spill-point at Shaikan is also most likely one and the same as the spill-point for the SH-SA-BB mega-structure. I am starting to tire from banging on about this for so long. One more time, look at the series of slides from #15 through #18 in the May 2010 Investor Presentation:
http://www.gulfkeystone.com/uploads/gkp-investor-presentation-may-2010.pdf
- slide #15 shows the seismic-interpreted top Jurassic surface with a 'base (OWC) level' of 784m TVDSS (true vertical depth subsea). The SH, SA and BB structures are clearly 'separate'.
- slide #16 shows the seismic-interpreted top Jurassic surface with a 'base (OWC) level' of 1169m TVDSS. The SA and BB structures start to 'merge', but SH is clearly 'separate'.
- slide #17 shows the seismic-interpreted top Jurassic surface with a 'base (OWC) level' of 1500m TVDSS. The SA and BB structures become 'one', and SH is starting to 'merge' (although GKP have made things less-than-clear by their decision to 'cut-out' the Al Qush area surface interpretation).
- slide #18 shows the seismic-interpreted top Jurassic surface with a 'base (OWC) level' of 2230m TVDSS. All three structures are now definitely 'one' (and you don't need to be a rocket scientist to eye-ball what is happening in the 'cut-out' Al Qosh area). The choice of the (P1, at that time) 2230 m TVDSS reference depth is not coincidental. This is the predicted depth of the OWC from oil pressure data in SH-1 together with the outrageous (at the time) use of water pressure data from the Jebel Kand well sitting 26 km away! BUT, this apparent 'long-shot' prediction of OWC does not stand alone - that same depth is very close to the spill-point depth of the Shaikan structure which was of course determined from seismic (i.e. two entirely separate datasets - one from pressure, the other from seismic, pointing at the same depth location). When the OWC depth coincides with the structure spill-point depth - the structure is regarded as being 'filled to spill'. Coincidence is rare (there is normally a reason for most things), and when you 'observe' what you expected (filled to spill), take heed. IMO.
- an expanded contour map corresponding to slide #18 is shown in slide #14. A slide I have referenced so many time before. This slide says SO MUCH MORE than GRH1's two- dimensional surface images (sorry GRH1, absolutely no offence intended, but as you well know, surface images will never say anything about the VOLUMES below). Slide #14 speaks sub-surface VOLUMES. This slide is the primary source of my 'BBBS Potential' OIP estimates.
So as I was saying, .... the OWC, if confirmed by SH-6, will lead directly to the calculation of OIP volumes throughout the entire SH-SA-BB mega-structure - PROVIDED THAT the 3D seismic interpretation confirms the connectivity shown by the 2D seismic from slide #14 in the May 2010 Presentation. How much OIP will that be? Much will depend on confirmation at BB-1. It will not be crucial to have good flow-rates at BB-1 - but the well must show that the Jurassic interval is fully oil-bearing. And, ideally, at least a few successful formation pressure tests to confirm the same pressure regime as Shaikan. With those two boxes ticked, it will merely be a case of projecting appropriate reservoir parameter for Net/Gross, Porosity and Saturaion throughout the mega-structure volume defined by the 3D seismic. There will be higher uncertainties throughout SA and BB of course due to the lack of wells, but a mightily SIGNIFICANT volume of OIP will become proven. IMO.
==========
In summary, communication across that fault is paving the way nicely towards proving the SH-SA-BB mega-structure - filled to a common OWC on both sides of that fault.
Moving now to your second paragraph, "At the moment, all the focus is understandably on Shaikan but I wonder whether increased OiP, news of flow from NW of the Shaikan fault AND our 80% working interest in Sheikh Adi will start featuring more prominently in analyst valuations...?", I currently have absolutely ZERO expectation when it comes to self-proclaimed 'professional' analyst valuations. You know very well yourself about the devious distortions that were presented within Hitchen's recent HSBC Note. Regrettably, these distortions and mis-representations continue to prevail from posters like Investor48 who keeps banging on about an alleged 50% discount (I48's post at 04:12 today "However GKP's SP is now supported by very strong fundamentals,even the bias call by HSBC's analyst of a 280p target price and this TP has taken into account a 50percent discount on politics,is 26.5p higher than yesterday's closing price of 253.5p!!"). As you, I, and most other perceptive people know, Hitchens applied the 50% discount factor TWICE (firstly he applied a 50% discount to the oil price due to the presumption of only local oil sales, and then applied 50% again to that result). Consequently, Hitchins applied a 75% discount factor. End of. Private Investors can only protect themselves by DYOR. Do not trust anyone. Do not trust me. Do not trust those with 'connections' in Hong Kong and Shanghai. DYOR and trust only in your self.
GLA,
BBBS
=============================
17:56
Re: Iraqi PM too
umr11
14UP
Another company which maybe in the frame is India's Reliance industries who own two blocks(Rovi and Sarta) adjacent to Shaikan/AB.
They are about a $50 Billion market cap company and have a good partnership with BP for their India gas blocks. They also seem to have used Perella as advisors for a couple of their deals in the past. They are not big enough to compete for shaikan with the likes of Exxon/Sinopec but maybe interested in AB or other blocks.
More importantly they are sitting on a cash pile of about $15 Billion and are looking to expand their partnership with BP beyond India.
17:13
Re: Iraqi PM too
renardargente
9UP
I have a very strong suspicion that the new entrant to K'n will be ENI of Italy ( MC approx £55 - 60 Bn ). It will not be taking a GKP interest IMO. Slight possibility on the BIRs but I think even that is too rich for them. The vultures must flap away when the hyenas are in the vicinity. Sounds as if we shall soon know in any case.
viiva87
158UP
The majors can't wait to announce their deals, however the political implications that come with it mean it must be announced carefully and in coordination.
You have less than four weeks to endure, however it could come before that if the news is leaked, which is what happened with the Exxon deal.
Interest is real. One interested party is worth $50-60 billion and has expressed strong interest. Whether they make a partial or complete bid remains to be seen, but I can tell you this is genuine interest and it was explicitly expressed. I don't know anything about the financial aspect of it, but I can also tell you they are in a rush - I don't know why.
Never seen interest in the business until a month ago. I heard nothing back in December/January, so I'm not sure how advanced those talks were, and I'm not sure how advanced these talks are either. But the business has the financial capability.
Viiva87
==
Parliament rebuffs Cabinet oil law
Janabi Shahristani resized
Adnan Janabi (R), the chairman of the Parliament's oil and energy committee, gives a press conference with Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Hussain al-Shahristani in February 2011. Janabi's committee voted on April 18, 2012 to set aside a draft oil law favored by Shahristani, and instead consider competing versions of that legislation. (BEN VAN HEUVELEN/Iraq Oil Report)
By Ben Van Heuvelen and Staff of Iraq Oil Report
Published April 24, 2012
The Iraqi Parliament's oil and energy committee is resuming its efforts to push forward long-delayed oil legislation – and as a first step, it has voted to set aside a draft favored by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
On April 18 the committee voted on whether to move ahead with a draft oil law proposed by the Cabinet last summer, according to multiple committee members. By a vote of seven to six, with three abstentions, the committee decided to set that version aside.
"Most of the commit...
============
12:21
Re: Info - FWIW
Captportfolio
28UP
Hi, with respect, I don't think you know how to do business with the Far East. There is a certain way to approach a certain person. GKP will have been advised (correctly) to go to China. The CEO of Sinopec will be impressed that TK has come to him, the invite would be exactly that. To turn around and say no would cause a massive insult, even before negotiations started, loss of face etc.
If TK has been invited back out, there is a reason. BUT these things take time, plus due diligence, 3D survey appraisal, NDA's signed etc. Plus the language barrier, and other info coming to TK, updates on drilling program. Possibly a heart to heart on the upcoming litigation, confidence, respect, transparency - all have to be achieved by both sides.
I suspect news will be out in the Public domain very soon, say 6 weeks. GLA
======
Author scaramouche View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 15:37
Subject Chess Pieces.....
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 133 times.
Message
It is great to see some very interesting thoughts expressed by a number of posters today as this board seems at last to have resumed talking about what really matters, which is what appears to have been happening to GKP over the last few months....and what we can expect or hope will happen soon.
From my own perspective, I can never get away from the feeling that there has been a massive amount going on behind closed doors, but that we PIs are somehow left in the dark and privy only to the information which other much more powerful forces periodically allow us to have... and always on their terms.
In essence, I think that this might be likened to the pieces on a Chess board, and their varying levels of influence upon the final result....
At the lowest level are The PAWNS, the foot soldiers who take on the biggest risks, and yet know the least about what is going on.... also known as the PIs.
The scraps that we are fed are clearly on a ‘need to know’ basis only, and it is only the persistence and diligence displayed by the likes of carlosalberto70 (with his find about GKP and their advisers being in China) or mirabeau from advfn (with news from Schlumberger of the proven effect of VDA stimulation on flow rates achieved at Shaikan-4) that enable us to achieve a more detailed understanding than we might otherwise glean from our own research.
At the next level are the KNIGHTS, people who know a little more than the rest of us and are able to move unconventionally if it suits them in order to maximise their potential gains. These are the institutions and HNWI’s, with a great deal of financial muscle but who, in the overall scheme of things often receive incorrect information and misguidedly pass it on to their clients and others in the market as though it is gospel. Witness the HSBC broker note, its faults so effectively dissected by Robbean a few weeks ago. Instead of the alleged 50% discount on NAV, that note was applying 75%... and yet the analyst concerned refused to acknowledge the error and thereby perpetuated its flaws.
(( High Net Worth Individual - HNWI
A classification used by the financial services industry to denote an individual or a family with high net worth. Although there is no precise definition of how rich somebody must be to fit into this category, high net worth is generally quoted in terms of liquid assets over a certain figure. The exact amount differs by financial institution and region. The categorization is relevant because high net worth individuals generally qualify for separately managed investment accounts instead of regular mutual funds.
Investopedia Says:
The most commonly quoted figure for membership in the high net worth "club" is $1 million in liquid financial assets. An investor with less than $1 million but more than $100,000 is considered to be "affluent", or perhaps even "sub-HNWI". The upper end of HNWI is around $5 million, at which point the client is then referred to as "very HNWI". More than $50 million in wealth classifies a person as "ultra HNWI".
HNWIs are in high demand by private wealth managers. The more money a person has, the more work it takes to maintain and preserve those assets. These individuals generally demand (and can justify) personalized services in investment management, estate planning, tax planning, and so on.))
Next in the hierarchy are the BISHOPS, pieces that can move very quickly if the opportunity presents itself, and are undoubtedly extremely influential at every level. BUT their influence is limited to the sphere in which they operate and the details that they are allowed by their masters to release. In this case, contrary to popular belief, I think they are... our Board of Directors. And yes, I think that even includes Todd!
And now we move on to the much more powerful pieces....
Firstly the ROOKS((A swindler or cheat, especially at games.)) (yes you did read that correctly!). These are pieces that can move very quickly if given half a chance, but move very slowly at first... until the playing area becomes much clearer. Once the barriers have been removed one by one, be they political, financial or business, they can become increasingly powerful.
I think that this is the role that was initially undertaken by Exxon, soon to be followed by Total, and very possibly swiftly by other 'super-majors' who are likely to be preparing their next move very shortly. Yes, there is far too much going on for this to be simply “castles in the air” IMHO, with Ashti Hawrami talking repeatedly of consolidation in the Kurdish oil sector both in the coming weeks and throughout the rest of 2012, and with IOCs and NOCs widely expected to gobble up a number of the smaller and tastiest of assets.
Next up, we have the KINGS – also known as the politicians. The likes of Maliki and Shahristani have had the ability to transform Iraq into a successful and wealthy democratic nation, with their huge oil resources offering them an absolutely massive opportunity. Or, as seems to be the current mentality, they can refuse to budge in their intransigent(Refusing to moderate a position, especially an extreme position; uncompromising.) demands and lead the country on its way back to rack and ruin.
On the other side we have Massoud Barzani, also no doubt someone of firm convictions. But he is also the man who brokered the Erbil Agreement in December 2010, ending the 9-month political impasse, and yet has clearly become so disillusioned by the failure of M&S to fulfil their promises that he has taken the unconventional step of hinting strongly at Kurdish Independence, maybe even as early as September.
Matty Miller’s post this morning I think hit the nail squarely on the head – although Kurdistan currently receives 17% of the Iraqi budget (or in reality 11%) the sale of the BIRs and KRG interests to a number of proven oil fields, plus perhaps some kind of international ‘bridging loan’ while their oil pipelines are being constructed COULD provide the Kurds with enough leeway to choose to go it alone. And there is no doubting the passion of the Kurds to seek the right to self-determination (if it is at all feasible), while the ‘thieves of Baghdad’ continue to stand in their way.
Kings move notoriously slowly, although ultimately they do decide the outcome of the game.
The only question is which King is likely to concede first, and which one will be left standing?
In reality though, none of the pieces I have mentioned so far actually wield the real power. Much more likely, it will be the QUEENS, pieces that can move fast and in any direction that they choose, pieces that see the complete picture, and pieces that the whole choice of strategy really revolves around. These are the pieces that are absolutely CRITICAL to the outcome of the game.
And in this case, it is my opinion that they are the Global super-powers – the AMERICANS (the present Number 1, with an enormous and seemingly endless thirst for oil), the CHINESE (No.2 and coming up fast on the rails, with their colossal reserves of US dollars available to spend on only the most valuable of assets) and perhaps the RUSSIANS whose own oil reserves are far less (and dependency on the money that they generate far greater) than many people realise.
Yes, it is extraordinary to be even a tiny part of such a hugely important and complex game, where the Winner will presumably come away with the Lion’s share of the Greater Shaikan and its potential 100 Billion barrels of Oil) while the Loser will be fighting tooth and nail to ensure that they do not lose out entirely on this most prodigious of assets... and end up only with the bus fare home!
When you think of it all in this context, is it perhaps any wonder that the time-scales seem to constantly move and we as PIs often feel we are being constantly kept in the dark, rather like mushrooms. Every move will be extremely important, carefully considered and minutely scrutinized, as just one slip could so easily result in losing the initiative...and ultimately the Game.
I am therefore very glad that we have Perella Weinberg in our corner, and that it is not simply our Board that is left to make the more strategic moves. Todd may be great at playing hands of poker.... but, on this occasion, I think we are in urgent need of those somewhat better versed in strategy... and Chess!
I sincerely hope that all 'the pieces' are starting to come together, and that the Prize is not too far away from being awarded.
AIMHO and please DYOR.
GLA, scaramouche
===========
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/cleric-tries-to-ease-tensions-with-kurds-7682411.html?origin=internalSearch
Iraqi cleric Muqtada al-Sadr visited the president of the autonomous northern Kurdistan region yesterday seeking to ease tensions between Baghdad and the Kurds that have threatened the coalition government.
The central government and the Kurdish region have long-running disputes over political autonomy, oil rights and contested territories, and ties have been further strained by a recent clash over oil exports.
Sadr, a Shia cleric who led uprisings against the US before American forces withdrew last December, is an influential player in government after his bloc's support of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki helped secure al-Maliki's position.
On his first visit to the Kurdish region, Sadr called for dialogue between all government factions and presented 18 points, including one on oil, on which he said all parties needed to agree. "The oil of Iraq is for the people and no one has a right to claim it for himself," he said.
Ties between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Baghdad were strained last October when US oil giant Exxon Mobil signed a deal to develop oilfields in the north, an agreement the central government deemed illegal because it says it has control over Iraq's oil exports.
The rift between Erbil and Baghdad widened further this month when the KRG said it was halting oil exports from the region because companies operating there were not being paid by Baghdad.
======
Author scaramouche View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 12:10
Subject Speculation... and Research
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 35 times.
Message
I cannot help noticing that there does seem to be something of a ‘Celebrity’ culture emerging on this board, with people constantly looking for ‘Idols’ to follow, or fresh rumours to help propel the SP forward.
I find this quite bewildering, as it is rather like watching the GKP version of ... 'I'm an Investor, get me out of here!'
Time and time again, we have all been disappointed when Rumours have failed to become Fact.... and many people’s hopes of imminent riches have invariably been dashed. Yet still, whenever the next rumour appears, whether from some blatant attention-seeker on Twitter or a seemingly more reliable contributor on this board, it is met with mounting excitement and feverish anticipation. And before you know it, what is actually no more than an unsubstantiated rumour is taken... as fact!
I guess that most of us (myself included) are becoming extremely jaded and anxious for an end to this fascinating but somewhat turbulent saga. So, we are inclined to clutch at straws, desperate that ‘the next RNS’ will be the Big One, with either a massive OIP upgrade, a huge oil discovery at Ber Bahr, confirmation that the board are “in talks that may or may not lead to a bid for the company (or Shaikan)”.... or even confirmation that an actual Bid has been received that will ignite the GKP fuse and put a rocket under the SP.
It is the same with the politics. Every week we hear that imminently - next week or next month – all issues will be resolved and the Erbil agreement implemented, Maliki and Shahristani are ready to pack their bags, the super-majors will all come flooding into Kurdistan, or that the Kurds are almost ready to announce Independence. And then, not perhaps surprisingly we are soon back to unsupported claims of ..... next week, or next month!
There seems to be an insatiable thirst(Impossible to satiate or satisfy:) for a resolution which will ensure that ‘the Market’ will suddenly and instantaneously recognise the true value of GKP’s oil discoveries... and assign a realistic valuation to our company. And while it is understandable, given the extraordinary ups and downs of the last 3 years... I am not so sure that it is healthy.
More likely, it all leads us to getting too far ahead of ourselves and on edge the whole time, with a heightened expectation that the RNS we are all so desperate to see will arrive at 7.00 am the next morning.... or perhaps the one after! This really needs to cease.
The NEWS will come when it is good and ready (via RNS), and I do not believe that anyone on these boards really has the inside track as to what may or may not be happening behind closed doors. If they did, it would surely constitute ‘Insider’ dealing... and anyone party to that would be committing a criminal act.
Of course, if you enjoy reading Rumours, speculating on them, or dissecting them, that is entirely up to you. But please remember that any decisions that you make on the back of them are your own, and that Investing is actually about taking responsibility for your own actions.
IMHO, anyone who takes action on what they read on a discussion board - without first doing their own research and checking out the statements made - is VERY LIKELY to end up disappointed.
Personally, I believe in research, research and yet more research.... and attempting to interpret and understand known Facts, NOT jumping on the latest bandwagon, and then blaming others when a prediction fails to come true.
I am of course well known to be extremely bullish about GKP, and believe it has the potential to command a T/O price many multiples of where we are now... but I think that my views are based on solid research. So should yours be.
It is always worth remembering that NOBODY (except perhaps TK) can ever know what might be going on in the minds of the GKP Board of Directors, Perella Weinberg, the KRG, the NOCs, the IOCs, the Governments of the super-powers.... and anyone else I attempted to categorise in my recent post on here entitled “Chess Pieces”. Like it or not, PIs are very much on the lowest rung of the information ladder.
All of which brings me back to the main point of this post...
There seems to be a growing demand for people on this board to want to meet up with the ‘cult figures’ of this board, presumably to learn from them... or about them. I have to wonder though what this is really expected to achieve since, as far as I know, no-one on here as actually claimed to be the Messiah, nor to have ‘Insider ‘ access to someone at the very heart of one of the action.
And it seems to me puzzling in the extreme that anyone should believe that, by simply meeting someone, this should be sufficient to determine the full extent of their knowledge and credibility. This is a complete fallacy. Surely, you can do this much more effectively by simply reviewing their posting history... and reaching your own conclusions based on what they have said, how consistent they are in their views, and most of all how much of what they write is based upon FACT. It doesn't take a genius to work out which posters meet the majority of such criteria.
That said, I am very grateful to Axo for inviting me to a meeting of a small band of enthusiastic GKP’ers in London in a couple of weeks’ time, and I can confirm that I am very much hoping to go.
As someone who has NEVER wavered in my opinion of the massive potential of GKP, despite the many challenges that I am well aware they continually face, and someone who has ridden GKP’s emotional roller-coaster for perhaps a little longer than most, I very much look forward to the chance to discuss all the latest developments in this astonishing story with a number of like-minded individuals (whoever they might be).... and, just like I do on iii, the opportunity to share the conclusions of my research.
BUT for anyone who expects me (or anyone else on here) to KNOW, or be able to predict with confidence exactly what will happen next, or when it will happen.... I can only suggest that they are perhaps better off enlisting the services of ‘Mystic Meg’.
*** The ONLY thing that is predictable about GKP is.... its UNpredictability!!
Finally, I would just like to say that there are plenty of people on here that I do hope to get the chance to meet up with one day, in particular the legend that is BBBS. But I suspect that only when T/O happens (or at the very least the sale of Shaikan), will this be possible.
I still envisage that much-awaited event to be most PROBABLE when SH-5 and SH-6 have revealed their FULL (to spill!) secrets, when more is known about BB, and when the Field Development Plan for Shaikan is submitted to the KRG.... which IMO is unlikely to be before July 2012.
Until then, I suppose that all we can do is to speculate or, perhaps even better.... RESEARCH!
Hi Oilman63/ Joseki,
Thanks for popping in. I've said it before and I'll say it again....I DO NOT DO CRYPTIC!
If anyone has something to say, they should make very clear what they have heard... and they do NOT have to reveal sources.
Otherwise, just wait patiently for the RNS's and no doubt all will be revealed in due course. I only had to wait 24 hours for the latest one, following my post yesterday, and GKP's BoD very kindly obliged.
Even NT said in his post yesterday that he had decided NOT to be cryptic.... and some excellent information it was too, I agree, Ren. I even ticked it up myself!
However, I'm still waiting to see that first 'offer on the table' and a bit more detail on the SOLD rumour - when was that exactly? Any idea when that really big RNS will come, what the figure will be, and if we will all be waiting another 4 months until we hear it officially?
If you get that right, I'll be very happy to buy you a pint of 'Kozel', and I'm sure that can't be too much to ask.
Have a pleasant afternoon,
scaramouche
GLA, scaramouche
=====================
Sacking of Shahristani
Barney71255
38UP
Note the Iraqi Parliament (last paragraph) will vote tomorrow on Shahristani's running of the electricity ministry - it should liven things up on the political front.........
`The report will include about electricity and energy recommendation to dismiss the Deputy Prime Minister Hussein al-Shahristani, on the back of his failure to manage the electricity issue.'
House of Representatives will reconvene Thursday to read the report recommends the sacking Shahristani and vote on the members of the Federal Court
Monday, April 30 / April 2012 19:00
Baghdad {: News}
The report will include about electricity and energy recommendation to dismiss the Deputy Prime Minister Hussein al-Shahristani, on the back of his failure to manage the electricity issue.
LINK
========
16:58
Mikey, remember?
oilman63
22UP
Hello Mikey
I've just picked up on this thread regarding shareholdings and computershare now me and yourself have discussed this at great length privately 12 months back when you were saying exactly the same thing. As you know I was in regular contact with computershare and computershare confirmed that they do not know the name of each individual shareholder as those shares can be held in a nominee account. They are not capable of seeing into all nominee accounts.
You disputed this before we went to Paris, together last year. You told me I would not be able to enter the AGM without the correct paperwork and you showed me all of your paperwork. If you remember me and yourself were the first two people to enter the AGM where we were greeted by my friend from computershare. All I had to do was flash my passport and gained entry. If you remember rightly you showed him all your paperwork and was originally refused entry because your paperwork was wrong. I know that might come across a little arsey but I'm trying to make a point.
Re resolution 7, I think your understanding and preaching of this is very flawed and can be quite misleading to some new investors who are not yet fully up to speed. This is not meant as a dig at you in anyway but these points have been proven to you by computershare themselves and you still persist and preach the wrong interpretation of what has been laid out. I have given you a contact and phone number for computershare in the past and I strongly suggest you ring them and clarify this for your own benefit.
Best regards
Oilman63
=======
Author broadford bay View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 18:42
Subject Bermuda Companies Act 1981
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 1 time.
Message
Do we have any members from Bermuda?
See Para 66 - Inspection Of Members Register by members of the public
http://www.bermudalaws.bm/Laws/Consolidated%20Laws/Companies%20Act%201981.pdf
Bermuda
The Companies Act 1981
Register of members
65 (1) Every company shall keep a register of its members and enter therein in respect of every member becoming a member after the appointed day the following particulars—
(a) the names and addresses of the members, and in the case of a company
having a share capital a statement of the shares held by each member,
distinguishing each share by its number so long as the share has a number
and, in respect of any shares that are not fully paid, specifying the amount
paid or agreed to be considered as paid on such shares; and
(b) in respect of any company that does not keep a branch register pursuant
to subsection (3), the date at which each person was entered in the register
as a member.
(2) The register of members shall be kept at the registered office of the company
or after giving written notice to the Registrar of the place at such other place in Bermuda convenient for inspection by members of the company and other persons entitled to inspect it.
(3) A company the shares of which are listed on an appointed stock exchange or
have been offered to the public pursuant to a prospectus filed under section 26 or which is subject to the rules or regulations of a competent regulatory authority,may keep in any place outside Bermuda, one or more branch registers after giving written notice to the Registrar of the place where each such register is to be kept.
(4) A branch register shall be kept in the same manner in which the register of members is by subsection (1) required to be kept.
(5) Every company shall, as soon as reasonably practicable, after the date on
which any entry or alteration is made in a branch register, make any necessary alteration in the register of members.
(6) If the register of members or any branch register is not made easily available
for inspection by members the company and every officer of the company shall be liable to a fine of five hundred dollars and the court convicting the company or the officers, as the case may be, may order the company to make the register immediately available for inspection.
(7) A company shall not be bound to see to the execution of any trust, whether
express, implied or constructive, to which any of its shares are subject and whether or not the company had notice of such trust; and the receipt of the person, firm or corporation in whose name any share stands shall be sufficient discharge to the company for any money paid by the company in respect of such share notwithstanding any trust to which it may be subject.
[Section 65 subsection (6) amended by 1999:25 s.7 effective 23 July 1999; subsections (1) and (3)
substituted by 2003:1 s.9 effective 14 February 2003]
Inspection of register
66 (1) Except when the register of members is closed under this Act, the register of
the members of a company shall during business hours (subject to such reasonable
restrictions as the company may impose, so that not less than two hours in each day be allowed for inspection) be open for inspection by members of the public without charge.
(2) Any member of the public may require a copy of the register, or of any part
thereof, on payment of the appropriate fee prescribed in the Eighth Schedule.
(3) If any inspection required under this section is refused or if any copy required
under this section is not sent within fourteen days from the receipt of a written request, the company and every officer of the company who is in default shall be liable in respect of each offence to a default fine.
(4) In the case of any such refusal or default, the Court may by order compel an
immediate inspection of the register or direct that the copies required shall be sent to the persons requiring them.
(5) A company may on giving notice by advertisement in an appointed newspaper
close the register of members for any time or times not exceeding in the whole thirty days in a year.
(6) This section applies to a branch register kept under section 65 except that in
relation to a branch register subsection (5) shall have effect as if for reference to an appointed newspaper there were substituted reference to a national newspaper in the jurisdiction in which the branch register is kept.
[Section 66 amended by 1992:51 effective 1 July 1992; by 1998:35 effective 5 October 1998; subsection
(6) added 1999:25 s.8 effective 23 July 1999; subsections (1) and (2) amended by 2006:40 s.19 effective
29 December 2006]
--------------------
From their public register:
#43290 Gulf Keystone Petroleum HBH Ltd. Reg. 10th June 2009
#40488 Gulf Keystone Petroleum International Ltd Reg.6th Aug 2007
#31165 Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd Reg. 29th Oct 2001
#42319 Gulf Keystone Petroleum Numidia Ltd Reg. 26th Aug 2008
====================
Kurdistan export agreement: the document
Kurdish President Barzani and Iraqi President Talabani open ceremonial valve during event to mark start of oil exports in Arbil
Kurdistan President Massoud Barzani (R) and Iraqi President Jalal Talabani open a ceremonial valve during an event in Erbil to mark the start of oil exports on June 1, 2009. (SAFIN HAMED/Reuters)
By Ben Van Heuvelen and Staff of Iraq Oil Report
Published May 4, 2012
Behind closed doors in Baghdad, on Jan. 17, 2011, the top oilman from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the newly instated federal oil minister negotiated a deal to pump crude from the semi-autonomous northern region into Baghdad's export pipeline.
It was a crucial part of a larger political deal reached between the two governments' prime ministers the following day. The two sides envisioned that cooperation on oil exports might help create a climate of trust that could lead to the ...
Who killed Kurdistan's oil exports?
DNO's Tawke Oil Field in Iraqi Kurdistan
A worker controls pressure levels at the central processing facility at the Tawke oil field in Iraqi Kurdistan. (SEBASTIAN MEYER/Metrography)
By Ben Van Heuvelen and Staff of Iraq Oil Report
Published May 3, 2012
When Kurdistan cut off its oil exports on April 1, the semi-autonomous region and Baghdad accused each other of breaking a January 2011 agreement that had set the framework for their cooperation.
The text of the export agreement, however, has remained secret – until now. Iraq Oil Report has obtained a copy, signed by Oil Minister Abdul Karim Luaibi and Kurdistan's Minister of Natural Resources Ashti Hawrami, and it helps shed light on the complex and murky reasons for the collapse.
=========
Author dickie3times View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted Thursday 21:51
Subject Sinopec-suitor? The Barrel
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 4 times.
Message
Good article and well worth reading again, or if you haven't seen it?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The stars seem well aligned for Sinopec to bid for Gulf Keystone or its biggest asset.
Ever enigmatic, ExxonMobil may be eyeing the action, waiting for Beijing to make the first move.
http://www.platts.com/weblog/oilblog/2012/01/13/post_6.html
Could Sinopec be Gulf Keystone's mystery suitor?
By Tamsin Carlisle on January 13, 2012 1:02 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks
Takeover intrigue is swirling around Bermuda-registered Gulf Keystone Petroleum after the company's market value surged to a record GBP2.28 billion ($3.51 billion) in hectic trading earlier this week on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange.
The stock has since retreated on profit-taking, with most investors apparently none the wiser about who might be lining up an offer for Gulf Keystone or its giant Shaikan heavy-oil field in Iraqi Kurdistan.
The chief suspects include some of the world's biggest international oil companies, with US-based ExxonMobil and Chevron heading the list.
Genel Energy, the Anglo-Turkish independent led by former BP CEO Tony Hayward, also has been proposed by some as possibly preparing a bid.
The FTSE company, formed in November through a merger between UK investment vehicle Vallares and Turkey's Genel Enerji, happens to be Gulf Keystone's partner in Kurdistan's Ber Bahr exploration block, on trend with Shaikan. Genel puts the untested resource potential of the block at 1.5 billion barrels of oil, Gulf Keystone disclosed on Monday.
Gulf Keystone itself set off the day-long stock market frenzy with a cryptic public statement pointing to the contractual validity of Kurdish Regional Government options to farm out its carried interests in Shaikan and other oil blocks to third parties. Otherwise, the company is acting coy. (Annoyingly unwilling to make a commitment.)
Reached late Tuesday by Platts, Gulf Keystone CEO Todd Kozel would say only that any development potentially affecting the company's share price would be announced through "proper channels".
Missing in action
KRG officials have been unreachable. Key members of the regional government's natural resources department remain missing in action, their multiple cell phones with Iraqi and UK numbers turned off. The whereabouts of Gulf Keystone's country manager for Kurdistan is likewise unknown, even to his friends.
Are government and company officials huddled in a meeting at a secret location? All signs point in that general direction, but what precise geographical location would that be?
Ruled out
For starters, Genel's London head office can be crossed off the list. The high-flying start-up with about $2 billion of cash reserves is well capitalized for what it is.: a small, cash-flow driven independent oil producer. But at this point it has neither the financial nor tehcnical depth to take on the full-field development of Shaikan, a world-class deposit of 10 billion barrels or more of heavy crude.
Rather, the post-merger Genel is tightly focused on realizing the significant upside potential of its existing assets, including its 25% stake in Kurdistan's first producing oil field, Tawke. On Tuesday, Genel said a new independent appraisal had boosted Tawke's estimated proven and probable oil reserves by 78% to more than half a billion barrels.
Also off the list for now is Chevron's global headquarters in San Ramon, California.
The international supermajor is not among those, including rival ExxonMobil, that have signed services agreements with Baghdad to develop and rehabilitate Iraq's large southern oilfields, so might pursue production sharing deals with the KRG with fewer political risks. Baghdad considers the KRG's contracts illegal and has blacklisted companies signing them from bidding on projects in the rest of Iraq.
But sources close to Chevron have told Platts that the company is not interested in doing business in any part of Iraq.
France's Total, which like Chevron and ExxonMobil has plenty of experience in exploiting heavy crude, has also declared a lack of interest in Shaikan, ruling out takeover discussions in Paris.
That leaves ...
ExxonMobil, which reportedly has an exploration and production license for a Kurdish block adjacent to Shaikan, is another matter. It characteristically stated to Platts Tuesday that it never comments on market rumours.
Indeed, it has yet to confirm the KRG's landmark announcement in November that the company had signed contracts for six Kurdish exploration blocks.
However, ExxonMobil typically holds its cards exceedingly close to its chest, so it is too early to conclude that there are no signposts pointing to Irving, Texas.
But what if they point in exactly the opposite direction...to Beijing?
Chinese refining giant Sinopec is Beijing's chosen vehicle for oil investments in Kurdistan, leaving opportunities in the rest of Iraq for other state-controlled oil enterprises such as China National Petroleum Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation.
So far, Baghdad has not taken the drastic step of banning governments whose state-affiliated petroleum entities have signed KRG contracts from doing business in the rest of Iraq.
Sinopec gained its initial foothold in Kurdistan in 2009 by acquiring the Kurdish operations of Addax Petroleum, which was Genel Enerji's partner in developing Kurdistan's second producing field, Taq Taq. It is no secret that the Chinese company is seeking further acquisitions in the region, for which it is willing to pay handsomely.
Moreover, Sinopec operates huge heavy oil refineries in China, and since 2005 has been learning about the upstream end of the business through international partnerships with heavy-oil producers.
In June 2011, Sinopec and Norway's Statoil brought Brazil's technically challenging Peregrino offshore heavy-oil field into production. Also in 2011, Sinopec invested $4/65 billion to buy ConocoPhillip's 9% stake in Canada's biggest oil sands project, Syncrude, after serving a six-year apprenticeship in the country's oil sands sector through a smaller deal.
The KRG might welcome Sinopec as a potential operator for the Shaikan oil field, as China could in time become a valued customer for Kurdish crude.
For his part, Gulf Keystone's Kozel, with limited technical and resources at his disposal, will be looking to cash out on Shaikan with the biggest possible pot of money to fund his next business venture.
The stars seem well aligned for Sinopec to bid for Gulf Keystone or its biggest asset.
Ever enigmatic, ExxonMobil may be eyeing the action, waiting for Beijing to make the first move.
====================
Author stashtheloot View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 13:47
Subject From Iraq oil report....
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 11 times.
Message
You are here: Home » Politics » Oil Policy » Who killed Kurdistan's oil exports?
Who killed Kurdistan's oil exports?
A worker controls pressure levels at the central processing facility at the Tawke oil field in Iraqi Kurdistan. (SEBASTIAN MEYER/Metrography)
By BEN VAN HEUVELEN AND STAFF of Iraq Oil Report
Published May 3, 2012
BAGHDAD - When Kurdistan cut off its oil exports on April 1, the semi-autonomous region and Baghdad accused each other of breaking a January 2011 agreement that had set the framework for their cooperation.
The text of the export agreement, however, has remained secret – until now. Iraq Oil Report has obtained a copy, signed by Oil Minister Abdul Karim Luaibi and Kurdistan's Minister of Natural Resources Ashti Hawrami, and it helps shed light on the complex and murky reasons for the collapse.
Kurdish leaders say Baghdad owes them $1.5 billion from past oil sales, while the central government says it will only pay after Kurdistan cooperates with a mandatory audit.
The text of the agreement, as well as interviews with key officials, suggests that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) fulfilled its key responsibilities by exporting agreed-upon volumes and submitting to an audit of contractor costs; the KRG started reducing exports only after Baghdad stopped making payments.
Yet the KRG, while it was negotiating with Baghdad, was also pursuing controversial deals with American firm Hess, Spain's Repsol, and ExxonMobil, all of which were signed later that year.
Those contracts did not directly violate the terms of the export deal, but they did help undermine its greater purpose: both sides had understood it to be a confidence-building measure that might lead to a resolution of other oil policy disputes. The central and regional governments have disagreed especially strongly over contracting authority, as Kurdistan has signed dozens of deals with foreign oil companies that Baghdad considers illegal.
The biggest practical obstacle to the export deal might have come from the Board of Supreme Audit (BSA), which is Iraq's financial watchdog agency. Its technocratic president, Abdulbasit Turki Saeed, insisted on a far more extensive audit than either Baghdad or the KRG had envisioned; the BSA's regulations, he argued, did not allow him to perform a partial accounting, which might paper over potential irregularities.
Beyond those problems, the agreement's ultimate undoing was its own ad hoc nature. As a confidence-building measure without much binding legal force, its success hinged on the good will of two governments with long-standing grudges. It was only a stop-gap measure, and its time ran out.
Now, the end of Kurdistan's exports has marked a broader deterioration in KRG-Baghdad relations. Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Hussain al-Shahristani has threatened to slash allocations to Kurdistan from the federal budget – the primary line tying the two governments together – while Kurdish President Massoud Barzani has hinted at a referendum to initiate Kurdistan's secession from Iraq.
Much like the flow of oil from the north, relations between Baghdad and the KRG have largely depended on agreements that create technical cooperation in lieu of political reconciliation. The story of the KRG's crude cutoff illustrates that such deals can spark positive momentum, but they cannot sustain it.
False start
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his top energy deputies envision a state with centralized oil powers, while Barzani and Hawrami insist that the Constitution grants them control of their own oil sector. Long-delayed oil legislation could help clarify the issue, but no draft has been able to pass the political deadlock in Parliament.
Without a broad reconciliation, both sides have signed oil and gas contracts based on their own preferred interpretations of the Constitution, and each side claims the other's contracts are illegal. Because Baghdad controls the country's network of export pipelines, Kurdistan's oil has been largely shut in.
The March 2010 elections appeared to create an opening for political progress. Maliki was not positioned to win an outright majority, so he needed the cooperation of several different political blocs – especially the Kurds, who had played a kingmaker role in the past – to ascend to a second term.
On Jan. 18, 2010, Maliki dispatched Luaibi, his then-deputy Oil Minister, to the first in a series of meetings in Erbil to negotiate with Hawrami, according to minutes of that meeting, which Iraq Oil Report has obtained. The two men began discussing a deal to re-start Kurdistan's oil exports, which had been shut in since a previous agreement fell apart in 2009, when exports from the Kurdistan flowed for four months.
Luaibi and Hawrami held two more sets of talks in Erbil, one on March 3 and another on April 11 and 12, 2010. They ultimately signed the minutes of their meetings, which summarized the arrangement they had reached. Those minutes, which have not previously been made public, would later serve as the basis for the January 2011 agreement.
The April 2010 deal called for a combined 85,000 barrels per day (bpd) of exports from the Tawke and Taq Taq fields, which are being developed by Norway's DNO and Turkey's Genel Energy, respectively. In return, the central government agreed to send the KRG half the value of the exports, in order to start paying the outstanding costs of the oil companies, which totaled $1.4 billion at the time, according to figures cited in the document.
On May 20, 2010, the Iraqi Cabinet approved the implementation of that deal. However, the agreement did not clarify how payments would be made, and the Cabinet decision only called on the "federal Finance Ministry to send a message to the Kurdistan Regional Government, for the purpose of securing payment of the companies concerned after being duly audited."
Under these terms, the KRG and its contractors would have to open their books to Baghdad's auditors before any payments could flow. Exports remained shut.
New beginning
The breakthrough came in early 2011, shortly after Maliki formed his new government. Two main factors contributed to the progress – one political, one financial.
Maliki had depended on the Kurds to win his second term, and in order to secure their decisive support, he had signed a document that included a promise to pursue oil policy reconciliation, according to Fuad Masum, the leader of Kurdistan's parliamentary delegation.
"The issue isn’t just for Mr. Maliki to work on; it requires cooperation from all of the factions," Masum said. "But he agreed to use his position – his executive power – to pass an oil and gas law."
Now, Maliki needed to make a positive gesture to the KRG.
Moreover, Iraq was struggling to pass a federal budget whose bottom line was directly linked to oil sales. Increasing exports would mean a larger pool of revenue that Maliki could distribute to satisfy his many competing constituencies.
On Jan. 17, 2011, Luaibi, who had just become oil minister, hosted Hawrami in Baghdad. They negotiated and signed an agreement that referenced the April 2010 deal and fleshed out its general terms with essential technical details.
One crucial change involved the timing of the required audit. The new agreement called for "audits of amounts spent in the development of those fields, and for the Finance Ministry to allocate the necessary funds to cover those costs and direct disbursement in the form of advance payment."
Essentially, Kurdistan's contractors could start getting paid before Baghdad finished examining their books.
"It was done as a pragmatic and a workable mechanism for the oil not to be interrupted and indeed to boost the production," Hawrami said. "If at a later date (after) reconciliation of costs… it transpires that we've been overpaid, we can give it back or (Baghdad could) deduct it from our budget."
Kurdistan's exports restarted on Feb. 2, 2011.
The agreement was subsequently referenced in the 2011 federal budget, which stated an expectation that Kurdistan would average crude exports of 100,000 bpd for the year.
KRG exports began to rise, and the payments also began to come. Nobody has confirmed an exact date of the first payment, but the second was made in May 2011, and the two payments totaled $514 million, according to officials on both sides.
At their peak in June, KRG exports reached 180,000 bpd, according to an official from Iraq's state-run North Oil Company (NOC), which has responsibility for sending exports to Turkey, which supports a calculation made at the time by Iraq Oil Report according to production figures from the exporting fields.
Problems
Finance Minister Rafa Issawi was responsible for approving the first two transfers, but he soon came under pressure from other Cabinet members to put them on hold, according to three people familiar with the details of the payments, including Hawrami.
According to all three sources, the most hard-line opponent of the payments was Shahristani, who has been steadfast in his call for a Baghdad-controlled national oil sector since he was oil minister, when the KRG signed the majority of their contracts. They speculate that Maliki had kept Shahristani on the sidelines of the export restart negotiations because of Shahristani's staunch opposition to it, and now that the deal was being implemented, the deputy prime minister was upset.
Iraq Oil Report tried several times to reach Issawi, Shahristani, and Luaibi for comment, but they were unable to schedule interviews before publication deadline. Shahristani and Luaibi would later say in public statements that the payments had stopped because Kurdistan was not cooperating with the audit. They insisted the export agreement called for auditing before payments – as the April 2010 agreement had indeed done, before it was supplanted in 2011.
"The government committed to pay the expenses of the development of the oil fields in the region after they are audited by a joint committed headed by the BSA," Shahristani said at a press conference on April 2, the day after Kurdistan's exports stopped. "But the process has not been completed because our brothers at the (KRG) Ministry of Natural Resources did not collaborate to complete the process of the audit."
That objection was dubious for at least three reasons, according to Hawrami and his allies.
First, the more recent agreement called for payments to happen before audits. Even if the audit was not complete, payments should have continued while the parties worked to reconcile the numbers.
Second, there was a straightforward technical mechanism available for resolving any potential discrepancies that an audit might uncover. The Finance Ministry already pays Kurdistan its regional budget allocation in monthly installments, so Baghdad could always make compensatory reductions from those transfers.
Third, Kurdistan had in fact cooperated with the terms of the audit outlined in the export deal. Luaibi and Hawrami had agreed to "cost audits of amounts spent in the development of those fields" that were exporting oil, and the federal BSA had sent two teams to the Kurdistan region, where they gained access to companies' internal audit reports, documents, and receipts.
"They disclosed everything concerning their expenditures," said BSA President Saeed.
By the terms of the export agreement, Kurdistan appeared to be meeting its commitments – yet Baghdad was still withholding payments.
"The goal posts have been shifted," Hawrami said.
The bigger picture
Even if the KRG did fulfill its end of the export agreement, officials in Baghdad have argued that Iraq's oil sector is also governed by a broader set of laws, regulations, and concerns that Kurdistan has been violating.
Saeed, for example, said that although Kurdistan did disclose all information related to their expenditures, this was not sufficient for an audit because the BSA's legal mandate requires it to perform a more extensive review that includes production and revenues.
"We believe you cannot assess costs if you are not able to compare them with production units," Saeed said. "We have to know whether the production was actually at that level, or more than the level they described – and where the revenues went."
Saeed suggested that it wasn't just Kurdistan that was unhappy with the BSA's insistence on further auditing.
"The federal government pushed the BSA into the middle of this process," Saeed said. "What they wanted from us was just to audit the costs. What we wanted, and what we have done – we are auditing everything."
Whatever Shahristani and Luaibi's position when the audit began, they have since embraced the BSA's more expansive standards. They argue that the KRG has generated significant production and revenue, especially over the past two years, and suggest that contractors might have already recovered their costs.
"The government made (the first) two payments to avoid making problems," Luaibi said at a press conference in Baghdad on April 2. "But then you have figures in official documents which refer to these (KRG) companies themselves selling a huge amount of oil for their accounts."
Baghdad accused the KRG of selling oil domestically and exporting it via tanker truck, with the money staying hidden in the region. Suspecting that companies have already been adequately paid, Baghdad officials resisted sending more cash without proof that it was actually owed.
"It is improper to ask for payment of the costs twice," Luaibi said.
Hawrami acknowledged that the contractors have recovered some expenses through domestic crude sales.
He said about 60,000 bpd of their production goes to the region's three official refineries, from which the contractors do not receive revenue. But at least 30,000 bpd is sold at auction to a private network of lower-tech refineries, commonly referred to as topping plants.
"From those topping plants, (contractors) get their share of the cost recovery," Hawrami said. "At least give them some revenue while this standoff with Baghdad isn't giving them any payment."
An official with one of the KRG's contractors estimated the total capacity of the topping plants was five times higher than Hawrami's figure – about 150,000 bpd.
"All these things put a lot of pressure on our asset value," said a top official at an oil company operating one of the exporting fields. "Are we getting full credit on our Kurdish assets? No. But the reality on the ground for cash flow generation, we have no problem."
The Exxon game-changer
One broad disagreement between Baghdad and the KRG centers on contracting rights – and without a broadly accepted legal framework, there is no reliable revenue stream for Kurdistan's contractors.
The central government claims sole authority to sign deals, while Kurdistan interprets the federal structure of the Constitution to grant the region autonomous control over its oil fields. The KRG had signed more than 40 contracts by early 2011, and finalized four more – two each with Hess and Repsol – in July.
Companies that sign oil deals with Kurdistan have been blacklisted from doing business with the central government and its vastly larger oil reserves, forcing companies to choose between the two oil sectors.
That policy was tested when ExxonMobil signed six contracts with the Kurdistan region on Oct. 18, 2011.
Not only was it the first super-major company to sign with the KRG, but Exxon was also already developing the super-giant West Qurna 1 oil field in Basra, which is now producing about an eighth of Iraq's oil, under a contract signed with Baghdad in January 2010. Never before had a company with an existing deal in the south defied the blacklist policy.
By landing the world's most profitable company, Kurdistan sent a powerful message not only to Baghdad but also to other prospective investors. The share price of Kurdistan's contractors jumped on the Exxon news -- an implicit endorsement of Kurdistan's argument for the validity of its contracts. The event set off a flurry of speculation about imminent mergers and acquisitions.
In Baghdad, it sparked a twofold crisis. First, the central government had to find a viable way to punish Exxon; second, it had to formulate a response to the KRG. Without consequences in both directions, other super-majors could be tempted northward by the same factors that had convinced Exxon to take the risk.
It's not clear whether the Exxon deal played a direct role in Baghdad's decision to stop export payments. Central government officials have declined to address the question, and Hawrami dismissed the notion, saying the export problems were purely the result of "a bureaucratic system being unreasonable."
At a minimum, however, Baghdad leaders knew of the Exxon deal when they were making their decision about whether or not to continue export payments. A senior advisor to Maliki confirmed that ExxonMobil told the central government of its intentions to pursue deals in Kurdistan in March 2011. And the KRG knew that the deals would anger Baghdad, despite the long-negotiated rapprochement.
In light of Exxon's imminent signing, leaders in Baghdad might have started to see the export agreement as a political liability that would encourage Exxon to stick with its new contracts and embolden others to follow. With exports flowing, after all, it was much easier for an investor to envision a booming KRG oil sector and a weaker central government.
Last chance
Even after Baghdad stopped paying, Kurdistan kept sending exports northward, albeit at lower levels than the summer peak. According to Hawrami, the region averaged 109,000 bpd during the 11 months it exported in 2011.
Hawrami said he was holding out hope that the upcoming 2012 budget law could help bolster the enforcement of the January agreement.
On October 27, 2011, the KRG's then-Prime Minister Barham Salih led a delegation down to Baghdad, where he and Hawrami met with Maliki, Luaibi, and Issawi. When the discussion turned to oil, according to Hawrami, the two sides agreed that the KRG would boost its exports to 175,000 bpd – and that 2012 budget should outline the payment mechanism in detail.
"There would be certain paragraphs in the budget to make it clear there is no linkage (between payments and audits), so that the Finance Ministry could process the payments without interference from other parties," Hawrami said, recalling the October discussions.
He consulted with Issawi to draft language that would insulate the finance minister from political pressure and ensure timely payments.
"(Issawi) was happy with it," Hawrami said.
But the budget had to pass through the Cabinet, and by the time it was approved and sent to the Parliament, that specific language was gone.
Instead, according to the finalized budget law, the federal government is responsible for paying the costs of oil contractors – "including the foreign companies executing contracts in the KRG," – and that these payments should happen "according to the signed agreement between the federal minister of oil and region's minister of natural resources with all the agreement's articles."
The terms of the January 2011 agreement were still secret at the time, but the Parliament finance committee was shown a copy, according to committee member Shorsh Rasoul.
Much like the previous year's budget, the new law is ambiguous about how and when export revenues should be transferred between governments. Baghdad continued to decline to make any payments.
Things fall apart
On March 16, the KRG made its first public threat to cut off exports. It had already lowered production below 100,000 bpd, and it soon reduced to 50,000 bpd. Then, on the afternoon of April 1, the oil stopped.
Shahristani responded to the shutoff by threatening to make cuts from the region's budget, and alleged that Kurdistan's oil was being trafficked illegally – both smuggled outside the country and sold domestically – and that none of those revenues were sent to Baghdad.
Unrelated to the export deal, Kurdistan is slated to receive about $10.5 billion this year as its normal share of federal revenues, according to a long-standing arrangement that allocates to the KRG a 17 percent slice of the part of the Iraqi budget that gets redistributed to local governments.
The Cabinet's version of the 2012 budget law sought to empower the federal government to make punitive deductions from Kurdistan's budget if the region failed to meet the 175,000 bpd export mark. That provision was removed before the law passed Parliament, but Shahristani has said the principle remains valid.
"In the Parliament they changed this, but the core of the issue has not been much changed," Shahristani said on April 2.
He claims Kurdistan produced more than $5.6 billion worth of oil in 2010 and 2011 that should have – but did not – go to the federal treasury.
"The budget now obliges the federal Finance Ministry to get these figures from the Oil Ministry after an audit," Shahristani said, "and to cut from the region any amounts of money missing from the federal budget due to Kurdistan's undelivered oil."
Yet the final version of the 2012 budget leaves significant room for different interpretations.
Within the law, Article 14 deals most directly with payments and audits, and it says that "the federal Ministry of Finance will record the value of oil and gas production amounts from the oil and gas producing region or province, and settle it." Both sides now claim this provision means they are owed payments.
Another section of Article 14 compels Kurdistan to transmit any earnings considered "federal revenues" to the Ministry of Finance every month. Leaders in Baghdad say that all oil sales count as federal revenues, and the KRG should be held responsible for the value of the crude they have not handed over.
The KRG, on the other hand, says it has not earned any money from direct oil sales. Rather, some of the revenues have gone to pay contractor costs, while other proceeds have supported a self-financing refining sector.
Hawrami confirmed that Kurdistan's oil production does not produce any revenues reflected in the KRG's budget. He defended this practice by arguing that the federal Oil Ministry also keeps its domestic oil sales separate from the Finance Ministry.
"None of Baghdad's (refining revenue) goes through the treasury," Hawrami said. "It's supply, demand, distribution locally. And then any profit stays within that system."
The BSA's Saeed disputed this account, however, and said he was trying to hold the KRG and the federal government to the same standard.
"In the rest of Iraq, there are 400,000 to 600,000 bpd sent to refineries, and all of these quantities are computed and calculated and the revenues enter the public treasury," Saeed said.
Deadlock
Days before the export cutoff, Issawi said the Cabinet had approved a $541.7 million payment, but that the transfer was contingent on the completion of the BSA's audit.
The KRG, however, had already concluded that leaders in Baghdad were sandbagging the export agreement, and decided to stop cooperating with the audit.
"They were using the audit as an excuse for delays," Hawrami said.
By March, the BSA was receiving no information from Kurdistan or its contractors, according to Saeed.
The BSA's auditors have encountered resistance in several areas, including their investigation of the contractors' revenues, which are generated through the topping plants. In the past, the KRG has been reluctant to acknowledge the existence of these semi-official refineries, let alone disclose their cash flows.
This relatively opaque aspect of the KRG's oil sector is only necessary, Hawrami suggested, because of Baghdad's intransigence. Kurdistan's contractors sell crude through these facilities if they have nowhere else to send it.
"If we have payment from Baghdad, that part of the process will stop immediately," Hawrami said. "Those topping plants are switched on when we have a problem – if we have a (domestic fuel) shortage, or no payments. It's like a buffer."
Hawrami said that between the region's official refineries and its topping plants, the domestic market is taking about 100,000 bpd right now.
If the central government were to transmit the payment it has already approved, however, "it probably would kick start some production," Hawrami said. He estimated the KRG could rally its production to 300,000 bpd and send at least two-thirds of that through the export pipeline.
But he also emphasized that Kurdistan would only commit to long-term exports if payments were assured.
"We have to have, maybe, a decree from the Council of Ministers saying that the finance minister has been given exclusive authority, as intended, to pay," Hawrami said. "It cannot be politicized every day."
Leaders in Baghdad have given no indication that they would consent to such an arrangement, nor is it clear whether a Cabinet decision would provide much more security, since it could presumably be reversed by a subsequent decision.
===========
17-04-12
Re: Afren rns - Good trade for 3D Todd?
GKP.L
225UP
Now we're talking! Another Shaikan next door? Or is it 'another' Shaikan? I think not. IMO.
Ok, it's only me talking - but it's good to talk sometimes - especially when it's about the probability of Shaikan's EXTENSION to the south.
I'm not going to spoon-feed anyone anymore. Just highlight a few facts:
Hunt's first well, Jebel Simrit-1 (JS-1) was drilled in the footwall of the JS structure. i.e. it was drilled in the down-thrown block. The well started in the hanging-wall (upthrown block) but ended up passing through a reverse fault so that most of the Cretaceous and Jurassic sections were drilled in the down-thrown block. (As an aside, the situation is analagous to what happened with the Sheikh Adi-1 well). The details can be found in this note:
www.afren.com/download.axd?id=1346
Now perhaps the most interesting thing within this note is the penultimate paragraph referencing "the 3D seismic volume", and its limited extent - the coverage was not all that was desired. Why would that be? Because Hunt did not do the survey. Who did the survey? GKP shareholders did (refer 3D footprint on slide#15):
http://www.gulfkeystone.com/uploads/gkp_interim_results_forward_strategy_presentation_14sept2011.pdf
As a shareholder Todd, I will highly indignant if the 3D seismic trade entailed nothing less than full provision of all well results from JS-1 AND JS-2....
So how is this relevant to Shaikan? Well, if you only look at the map on page 2 of the RPS Report, then you might think 'not a lot' as the areal extent of the mapped reservoir is clearly separated from Shaikan. BUT, that map ONLY depicts the areal extent of the down-thrown (footwall) resources - the hanging wall (north of the fault) is not depicted because the JS-1 well trajectory fell mostly in the footwall. If you want to know the mapped area for the hanging-wall up-thrown block, you need to refer to AFREN's first presentation from when they acquired their stakes in Kurdistan:
www.afren.com/download.axd?id=1357
Specifically, look at slide# 24 which shows the areal extent of the reservoir for both the hanging-wall (north of the fault) and the footwall (south of the fault). AND note the comment:
"Contingent and prospective resource estimates constrained by confidentiality of off-block data to close structure".
Whose off-block data would that be then? Do I really need to answer that?
And still no OWC in the Jurassic - I wonder what the 'lowest known oil' depth was? I hope you know Todd. When are you going to tell us?
GLA,
BBBS
==========
16:12
No Placement
Jimbo JR
19UP
Don't post too often but want to get this off my chest.
How many times as this been covered on this board?
Without an EGM, the BOD can only issue another 50million shares, so you really think there going to potentially wipe hundreds of millions of the market cap, make themselves look like monkeys and p!$$ off shareholders to raise 80 millions through a placing?
Grow up and stop replying to these dimwits. There feeding off your fear and your giving them everything they want. Read the last 3 pages of posts and look at what it cosists of. Some plank starting a thread and you all bite on it!
Holarious really, i can see why JBT finds it so enjoyable to read this board!
Youve only got to zoom out from GKP to realised the reason for the drop, general market sentiment, that it. Were tracking the FTSE almost perfectly, as our 99% of other shares.
If you can't hack it, sell up and move on.
Thats my rant over! I'll drift back into the distance now
GLA
Jim
===
15:20
Re: FREE!
cynical4
5UP
Let's not degrade into a personal slagging match. I thought you would be above that.
I made a fair point - you only presented the upside and not the downside.
I am cynical to a certain extent but also a realist. Yes they have a lot of oil but lets not forget that that we all have a very one sided view of the Excalibur claim / outcome. Almost everybody here wants GKP to win this and we have heard GKP's view but nothing from Exal. Plus everybody thoguht they would fizzle out but no they raised a significant slug of cash a few weeks back. There must be something to attract such speculators? You would do well to review DNO's old literature on Peter Galbraith and what it cost DNO to part company with that middle man!
Ps please lets try to keep the posts clean / sensible and on topic - plus if possible balanced
thank you
=
Re: FREE!
Author bonobo77 View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 14:54
Subject FREE!
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 85 times.
Message
At one point today we touched 182p per share, putting our market cap below £1.6bn.
On 3rd Nov, 2010, our market cap was practically the same … in excess of £1.5bn
Same company. Same value. Same fundamentals?
Not when you look at the news GKP has posted in those 19 months.
So, if you bought in the lows today, you are effectively getting all this for free –
FREE! +6.3bn barrels (P50) at Shaikan (and rising).
FREE! +2.4bn barrels (‘mean’) at Akri-Bijeel
FREE! +1.9bn barrels (P50) at SA
FREE! SH-4’s whopper (2,375 metres of total gross pay interval)
FREE! 24,000bopd from the ‘crappy zones’
FREE! Ber Bahr drill
FREE! Appointments of Hanson and Guthrie (NEDS)
FREE! Entry of Exxon – world’s No.1 – derisks Kurdistan
FREE! Entries of Afren, Petroceltic and others too
FREE! Tony Hayward becomes our equal partner at BB
FREE! Prospect of entering FTSE
FREE! TKs divorce resolved
FREE! Perella Weinberg on board to conduct asset sale
FREE! BOD incentivised to seek an ‘Exit Event’
FREE! SH5 & SH6
bonobo77 this user is in your favourites list
7UP
cynical by name, cynical by nature.
The export question remains the same as it did back in November.
However, we now have the FREE! prospect of pipelines being built ASAP.
And I'll give you the Excalibur case.
But remember (a) it has been described as 'vexatious', and (b) do you REALLY, honestly, believe that their prospective claim equates to 10bn barrels of P50 oil discovered in the interim?
If you do, then you are more than cynical. You are insane.
====
14:38
Re: sp being held up
he-who-dares
16UP
My guess (and that is all it is as I really have no clue) - is that the market will not get away with today's antics for long.
Goldman upgrade
Fox Davies upgrade
Higher volumes than normal and a sell off...
Won't take the institutions and investors who are out of the loop in the city to work out something is afoot and they weight of evidence points north.
You can't pull these types of moves everyday and expect them to go unnoticed.
I would imagine the rot will start to stop soon......if there is a sniff of something money will start to come in.
We have seen firm take over rumours had a similar effect to cat nip. I am expecting that news that a major has acquired the Shaikan BIR's to have an almost parallel effect...maybe not quite so strong, but certainly a strong re-rate.
News of AB Sale, would have a good boost also.....
I am starting to think Shaikan BIR's may be plausible at this stage for the KRG to announce.
On top of that I don't believe in hostile take-overs...the KRG blessing and relationships are too important, so any buying would have to be through a pre-agreed nod as to who potential suitors are. I am sure PWP will have ajudged who they can negotiate with having KRG approval and who hasn't. A VIP list if you like.
For me this is why we have heard nothing about AB, and no other news from GKP outside of operational updates.
Just my tuppence worth....been stressing for weeks now - but today's activities tie in with viiva's posts and other snippets.
It's not about believing the uber bulls or the elite of the board - it's all about piecing the jigsaw together in your own mind...and for me I am feeling very comfortable with a position I should be very uncomfortable holding right now given the sell off of the last 3 months.
I don't like back with hindsight - I didn't know it was going to stop at £4.50...I have always said in until Take Over...I actually believe that things started to take shape and probably did get rebuffed in February.....too much indication to suggest otherwise.
I am not happy with the share price, but the fundamentals haven't changed so I sit tight and start again...it's not been pretty to watch and has left me feeling pretty miserable and certainly impatient for the last 2.5 months.....BUT, to paraphrase.
-----
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too:
..............................
If you can dream---and not make dreams your master;
If you can think---and not make thoughts your aim,
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same:.
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build'em up with worn-out tools;
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings,
And never breathe a word about your loss:
..........................................
You'll be a GKP Champion!!
Cheers,
HWD
==
Author stashtheloot View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 14:54
Subject From Iraq oil report....full article
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 5 times.
Message
ERBIL - Through contentions years of political conflict, perhaps the strongest link between the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region and the central government has been the budget – and that bond could soon break.
Following the Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) April 1 shutoff of its oil exports, top Baghdad officials threatened to deduct lost revenue from the $10.5 billion that the region is supposed to receive from the federal treasury. Amidst such threats, KRG President Massoud Barzani has hinted that the region could declare independence.
In the past, one major barrier to such a move has been financial: without Baghdad, Kurdistan's budget would take a huge hit. But now that the KRG's oil production is soaring, the region is exploring new options.
In an interview with Iraq Oil Report, Kurdistan's Minister of Natural Resources Ashti Hawrami said that Kurdistan's production capacity could easily reach 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) – and he noted that annual revenues from that much oil, at today's prices, could replace a lot of cash from Baghdad.
The question is how to monetize the crude. The KRG is currently fueling an up-and-coming refining sector with at least 100,000 bpd, according to Hawrami, which is generating some income and supplying the domestic market with fuel.
But the biggest money is in large-scale exports, which have traditionally been under the sole authority of the State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO). Hawrami now challenges SOMO's exclusive claim on oil sales.
If such a position turns out to be a prelude to autonomous Kurdish exports, it could signal a fundamental breach in KRG-Baghdad relations.
Iraq Oil Report spoke with Hawrami at his home just outside Erbil. In the first part of the interview, he spoke about the now-defunct agreement that allowed Kurdistan's exports to flow for 14 months; in the second, he discussed the legal positions that underpin Kurdistan's oil development.
In the third and final part of the interview, below, he discussed the inner workings of Kurdistan's oil sector, and he made the case for Kurdistan's right to export oil independently.
Ben Van Heuvelen: I'd like to ask about how Kurdistan's domestic oil sales work. Basically, I'd like to get a picture of – from the moment oil is taken out of the ground, who is controlling it and who sells it?
Ashti Hawrami: The ministry is controlling it because everything needs to be reported according to the contracts.
We take a certain amount of oil to two or three refineries we have, two main refineries and a small topping plant at DNO's facility. Capacity of those currently is about 60,000 bpd combined. It will be expanded by year end to 100,000 bpd. That oil, we take it as a government, produced by the producers, we take it to those refineries, transported by truck. It gets processed.
We pick up the products. We take the diesel to the power plants. And the fuel oil, by and large, gets distributed from one of the refineries to the cement plants and the steel plant and so on. These are the sort of plants that were supplied previously by the federal government. And then when they stopped allocating the fuel oil quota, we redirected from here.
There is no revenue for – the trucking is a cost, of the crude oil to the refinery and the trucking of the products. We pay for that cost. The fuel oil, I think we are allocating between 60,000 tons, or 70-80 thousand tons – I think it's in tons – per month. That will be charged at the same rate as Iraqi subsidized, it's about $130 per ton. We receive that from those contractors.
And then the surplus products, which is largely kerosene, we distribute it to the rougher areas where they receive less from the quarter we get from Baghdad. And it is charged at the same discounted price as the kerosene Iraq sells, which is again about 400 dinars per liter. We receive that revenue, but the trucking cost is also on our account.
That leaves some surplus fuel oil, and some naphtha. That gets auctioned periodically to the highest bidders, and we license them to take it out of the country. There is no market in Iraq for it, in any part of Iraq, actually.
In exchange for that, we also do tendering for imports, at a minimum price. The other, we sell for maximum price possible. And what we buy is diesel. Because the diesel we produce in our refineries – and the natural gas we have – is not sufficient yet to feed all of the power plants. So, we have shortfall of something like 4 million liters and maybe a bit more sometimes, per day, of diesel. So we have to periodically buy that. And we pay for it from what we sell.
So, that is the process.
In addition to that, we pay the refineries to refine the products, a per-barrel fee. A tolling fee. Because we don't sell them to the – we don't have the products. It's basically out of this revenue, we cover the trucking costs, we pay the refinery fee, and we do that.
BVH: What is the per-barrel refining fee?
AH: It's about $15 or $16 during cost recovery, and after cost recovery it's about half that. We are renegotiating that, but currently that's where it stands.
In addition to that, we engage some topping plants. The capacity we have is not adequate yet in refining. And they will process some additional diesel, naphtha, effectively. The diesel stays in Kurdistan, because there is not only – we need it for the power plant, but also there is a general market for diesel. The naphtha and the fuel oil gets sold, just the same way as we do it.
And the revenue from that by and large goes to the oil companies. What we take, we don't take from that. Our share is, we process it and we do the government bit. From those topping plants, they get their share of the cost recovery. At least give them some revenue while this standoff with Baghdad isn't giving them any payment.
If we have payment from Baghdad, that part of the process will start immediately. There's no need for it, because we'll get more money from putting the oil in the pipeline. And Iraq gets more money. Therefore, those topping plants are switched on when we have a problem, if we have a shortage or no payments. It's like a buffer.
BVH: So the oil companies do not generate revenue from the crude that goes to the three government refineries, but they do from the topping plants.
AH: Yes.
BVH: And what is the approximate refining capacity of those topping plants combined?
Well, allegedly there are some significant number of them, but some are sitting outside Kurdistan, like in Mosul and Kirkuk and so on. Some are very old – these go back to 1990s, when the region was isolated. Remember, there's history here. But I think around about 12 or 15 of them, something like that, are decently environmentally – outside towns, and so on – those are, about 500 tons per day maximum. Between 300 to 500. 1,000 to 2,000 bpd.
That is where we are. And any crude – or anything that goes out of the country from us, it's licensed. It's auctioned. Certificate. In fact, you're welcome to attend the ministry on regular basis – we do have members of the diplomatic service here, they do regularly attend. Americans, they like it, they sit and watch and take notes.
BVH: Are those auctions just for the three refineries here, or do those include the topping plants?
AH: These are for any products within the region. Of course, we cannot control what Baghdad does.
BVH: So, if Kurdistan sends crude to topping plants outside of the region, then –
AH: The crude doesn't go out, but the products go out. And we're proud of it, and we sanction it, and we authorize it.
BVH: I have an arithmetic question. I'm not sure I have it right, but if there are 15 or so topping plants, each with about 2,000 bpd of capacity, then that seems to add up to about 30,000 bpd.
AH: Maybe a bit more than that.
BVH: Plus the 60,000 bpd of refining capacity here. That means that domestically it's possible to process almost 100,000 bpd right now?
AH: Let's do a different sum, if you like.
Iraq refines about 600,000 bpd, or 650,000. Between refining, and they supply some to power plants. And if we just assume they refine 750,000, we have an entitlement from that of 17 percent – plus the total for the infrastructure, because Baghdad has the infrastructure for distribution; we don't. We have to build that, the storage. We paid for theirs to be built, when they built it. They have cheap refineries; we have expensive refineries. So really we are entitled to 25 percent, once you adjust for this infrastructure.
So we have 25 percent of 750,000 is – whatever that works out to, 150,000 plus. What we are getting from Iraq is about 30,000 bpd of products equivalent, between kerosene, benzene, and diesel. Which comes to the three provinces of Kurdistan region, the three governorates. And they will distribute it at the Iraqi discounted price through what was intended for the population. That's done independently, so, from the ministry, but that's what happens to it. So we're not getting our full share.
So I am entitled to refine another 70 or 100 thousand. I'm still below my entitlement. So there is nothing here to be reconciled.
The time will come where either Baghdad will over-refine or we over-refine. And if we're over-refining, beyond our – let's say, proportional population allowance – then it's fair enough, we should pay for that at a market price. Market price being maybe whatever you give to commercial refineries. There's nothing wrong with that; nobody should take more than their fair share.
But we've been deprived. If you actually look at the sum of what's going to the region, it's way below our entitlement.
BVH: Is that a technical decision? Who is responsible for determining those volumes?
AH: At the moment we are looking at simplifying that. I discussed that with Minister Luaibi, and I believe he was in favor of simplifying it. We are looking at – what we're saying, rather than have an argument about distribution rules – who's doing what, and all of this. Very simply, how much crude oil are you consuming?
If we didn't have any refineries in Iraq, all of that oil would be exported at market value, and we share the revenue anyway.
So, if you take in free and distribute it at the normal price – because Iraq sells it for this subsidized price, the money doesn’t go back to the treasury anyway. It pays for the transportation and all of these little costs, the refining costs. So there is no revenue generated for the Finance Ministry. So that 750,000 bpd is basically, call it consumption.
So, if the principle is the crude oil value – and let's assume I make only benzene here, or you make only diesel there, or fuel oil – it doesn't matter what it is. It's the crude oil value. What do you do with it – let's say I take the crude and sell it at international prices and buy products with it. The principle should be based on the consumption of the crude oil. This money – I used this, you used that. So let's kill that argument, because it's a source of misunderstanding.
BVH: Part of my question is also about what's happening with KRG production right now. Because, if refining capacity here is about 100,000 bpd and production capacity is up around 250,000 or more, does that mean that some production is shut in?
AH: Production is shut in. The 100,000 bpd that is shut in at the moment, we have no ability to do anything else.
BVH: So it's 100,000 bpd that's shut in right now, more or less?
AH: Yes.
BVH: And what's your figure for KRG production capacity total?
AH: I think we can produce about 300,000. About 50 to 60 of it can be refined, and the rest can be exported. Not get to the topping plants.
BVH: So there is still 100,000 bpd that isn't accounted for in my arithmetic. 100,000 bpd is being refined. 100,000 bpd is being shut in. That equals 200,000. But then there's 300,000 bpd of capacity?
AH: Capacity is what the fields can produce. But they don’t produce it. But we can make an effort to link up and put more trucking. So, the maximum we have ever produced has been, say, 200,000 bpd maximum. When we were exporting last year. So at the moment, it's basically the activities around that 100,000 bpd with the topping plants and all of that.
But we may increase the topping plants, because we don't have enough share of the products anyway. And secondly, recently, somebody woke up and decided to cut Erbil's products. They cut our supply for about four or five days. And then they changed their minds and reinstated it.
I'm sorry, we cannot be captive to that policy. So, we're going to increase our capacity and we're going to use these topping plans as a control to make sure we don't get strangled.
If it really gets worse, then I'll export oil out by truck and refine it and bring it back, in order to actually make sure our capacity within the region, our domestic needs, are not deteriorating. We can't be punished that way.
BVH: Who runs the topping plants? These are private companies?
AH: Everything is privately owned. Even the two refineries are privately owned. The Ministry of Oil, the Ministry of Industry started with those topping plants in 2003 or 2004. After three years nothing happened. Hardly anything you could actually use.
Then they stopped working on them, gave them back to us, and said, "You finish it yourself." And we really didn't have any resources or any finance to pay for that. So we sold them to the private sector for the amount that had been spent on them. And within two years they were operational.
BVH: The power of the private sector.
AH: Absolutely.
BVH: How does the payment work from the topping plants to the producing companies?
AH: The topping plants basically – the people are given highest price for the crude oil. They take that crude. It's auctioned from the producers, and it's only done on a monthly basis. So if the oil price changes, or the product prices change, they are not caught in that.
BVH: And these are public auctions?
AH: It is more or less public, with the ministry being there and the representatives of the companies. They submit public bids.
And then, for that, they will take it to the region. You know, they have refineries themselves. Some of them have topping plants, and they rent the others, if they need to. And the products, basically out of that, they pay for the oil, and the diesel gets re-circulated within the region, privately sold to stations and all of that – we say it gets within the region privately sold to stations. And the other two products, we give them license to take them out. The naphtha and the fuel oil.
BVH: At the conference here last November, you announced that there's some agreement that allows fuel exports by truck to Turkey now.
AH: We are not doing that really. Turkey doesn't need fuel oil, I don't think so. Because they rely more on natural gas. I think a few years ago, they did. A few years ago, fuel oil was desirable. But I think they gradually converted to LPG and gas. And Iran doesn't need it either. Because they've got plenty of it.
BVH: Are there any refined products going to Turkey?
AH: At the moment we don't have – we just have naphtha, and the consumption for naphtha is – it's not a product you can use; you have to refine it. So maybe in the future – but at the moment, it's transited via Iran, and then it goes to – people have facilities rented there, and then from there, periodically they sell it farther afield.
BVH: I'm curious about this agreement that you announced in November. Is it possible now to export?
AH: It is possible.
BVH: Was this an agreement negotiated bilaterally between Iraq and Turkey?
AH: We are allowed, and Baghdad is allowed – we can sell it, I believe. But we haven't tried to. Because these products are not that desirable, as – otherwise a contractor would have done it. They'd probably get a better value at the moment, or a better market.
BVH: Who made this arrangement, to allow the refined products exports to Turkey?
AH: The trucking was allowed, but then it was stopped by the Turkish side.
BVH: When was that?
AH: It had been stopped a couple of years before. And then they annulled the decision.
BVH: And who was that? Some regulator?
AH: I don't know which authority in Turkey, but yes, I suppose some regulator. They told that – so, in theory it opens up the trade for products both ways, actually. In fact, we might be better off importing some of the diesel. That might be cheaper, because it often comes by Azerbaijan, and then the long route south is more expensive. So, it might help cutting the costs for us on the imports.
On the exports, if it's fuel oil, I think the market is not there, actually. Maybe in some parts of Turkey, but I don't think there's any big market for fuel oil.
BVH: When I spoke with the BSA, the president mentioned to me that in 2010, he asked the KRG whether regional oil sales are reflected in the regional budget, and the KRG said they are not. Can you confirm this? Do revenues from oil sales go to the Kurdistan government? Do they stay with the MNR? How does this internal accounting work?
AH: Well, it is working.
Actually, as I said, it's all done – the primary aim of what we do – is what goes to the companies, that's under the PSCs. What goes under this refining is no different from Baghdad. None of Baghdad's goes through the treasury. What the Ministry of Oil does is it takes 650,000 or 700,000 bpd – I guess you can ask the same question to the treasury in Baghdad. The answer is the same.
BVH: So all of the oil that Kurdistan is taking goes to its refining sector, and the proceeds from those domestic sales pay the costs of refining?
AH: It's supply, demand, distribution locally. And then any profit stays within that system. For example, Baghdad has a distribution company. It has a refining company. So, the oil is supplied theoretically for one dollar, actually, per barrel. It's done for a dollar. It goes to the Ministry of Oil, and then the rest of the revenue stays within the chain of distribution.
So, as far as the BSA is concerned, what does the Ministry of Finance receive out of that? The answer is that – is that accounted for? No, it's not. So, we mimic what they do there. There's nothing different.
I'd rather have actually everything done at international prices by everybody, and then at the source, put money behind the discount – rather than allow it that way. But it doesn't matter. At the end of the result, there is no – it's highly subsidized. And for now, Iraq is in a transitional period. Perhaps it's justified. But over a period of time it needs to gradually catch up with international markets.
BVH: Regarding Turkey – it's one of the fastest-growing economies in the world and it needs energy. Kurdistan shares a border and has a lot of resources. Is there an emerging energy partnership with Turkey?
AH: On the gas, maybe. Because of the supply-demand there and the surplus here. And particularly the early stages of excess gas here in the absence of international pipelines like Nabucco, the Turkish market is attractive and might be attractive both ways, because it leverages Turkish needs for energy security.
On oil, they have access to international markets in a big way. Maybe on the heavy oil side something, eventually, because they have refining in Turkey.
BVH: Is it possible, under the law, to export crude oil, say, to Turkey for refining, if that product is going to come back into Kurdistan?
AH: Absolutely. Even export to any country, under the law, is permitted.
BVH: Doesn't that have to go through SOMO?
AH: No, absolutely not.
BVH: So, Kurdistan could theoretically export oil independently?
AH: We don't need to, if the payments (from Baghdad) are made.
But if you're talking about the legality, it's the revenue that must be accounted for. That is the fundamental thing: the revenue must be accounted for and must be shared on the Iraqi side. Obviously, as I said, whether we're selling direct, or SOMO's selling, or contractors are selling, we have to make sure the revenue - the net revenue, net of costs, if you like - is accounted for, and goes back to the common pot for distribution.
Or, if we keep it, we have to have a reduction in the budget, I guess.
So, we have to - this is where the irony of it is: Iraq needs to pass a revenue sharing law. And needs to maximize that for distribution, so that everybody basically works towards maximizing that income.
And there is nothing in the Constitution gives a right to one company to sell Iraq's oil. Any region, any company, anyone, in theory, can export – but with accountability, with paying the money to the right account. It's a right.
It's not a right only to one company. In fact, that's dangerous; it was an instrument invented by Saddam Hussein for control. It's dangerous to continue with it. I think SOMO's role should be more regulatory, actually. It should be to make sure that maximum prices have been achieved by anyone selling crude, whether that's INOC, or any regional or foreign company.
They should not be collecting everything and then making their own contracts with a few people and deciding - where are the contracts? Have you seen a single SOMO contract? That is where the oil becomes money. Has the Parliament seen any contracts? Do we know whether that was really the highest prices and the reasonable price? We don't know. We know nothing about it. As a federal region of Iraq, with a share of that revenue, we do not know anything about that trade.
It's dangerous, in my view. The sooner the Parliament looks at it, to deregulate it, to make sure there's no room for mischief, is the best for Iraq.
BVH: The opposite point of view is that having several different entities selling oil internationally is dangerous, because they might compete with one another - which would undercut the Constitution's mandate to achieve the highest value from Iraq's oil.
AH: It's unlikely, because that's where the regulator comes in. If you have SOMO as a regulator of that, then its function should be exactly that.
I agree with you. I'm not saying that everybody should just do what they like. The overall regulation in place, that SOMO has a policing effect, through law, through legislation, through supervision, through accounting, checks and balances, auditing, contracts, everything. That's where SOMO, or any organization like that, would be ideal, for supervising.
But they cannot do that and be executive.
BVH: So is Kurdistan exporting any crude oil right now?
AH: Independent of the pipeline? No. The pipeline has been interrupted.
BVH: Are you planning to export crude anytime soon?
AH: At the moment, we're hoping that soon - Issawi sends his half a billion dollars, or whatever it is - and start talking to make sure that we've found our, you know - go back to our agreement and say, it's reasonable to move ahead. And not to worry about over-payment or under-payment.
Let us work through some legislation. And then open the books at that point in time, and see if there's been over-payment or under-payment, and if the KRG has taken too much, then give some back. Or, you only have a little amount to take, and after that, you get less. Whatever it is. But we need to do that in order to get the oil flowing.
But at least, Iraq gets half of the revenue that way. That's half of the revenue, which stays in the treasury. At the moment, they're getting zero. It does not make sense.
If we were contributing 200,000 or 250,000 bpd, soon the costs would come down to less than 50,000 bpd equivalent. Our budget for this year, the share of the KRG is no more than the equivalent of 200,000 or 250,000 bpd, in terms of dollar value. We would be contributing the equivalent to our budget by year end. That should be welcomed by Baghdad.
At the moment, by not producing, we're just taking that money as our share, as if this oil never existed. As if there was no discovery, no production, no infrastructure. Iraq has not spent one dollar on it. We have in the region. We have a ministry that's paid by our region. The costs of that ministry should be federal costs, since that revenue is shared.
======================
Author joseki View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 18:03
Subject TOTAL and Maliki's ultimatum
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 7 times.
Message
Marathon Oil have removed the IPAA link from their website but there is no explanation. They posted no comment for retracting and no correction, yet neither are they required to in accordance with their disclaimer. If they need not give any explanation, why the need to remove the in the first place unless there is agreement with higher authorities? Thus I think everyone is merely waiting for Total's entry be made official, tying in with Viiva's post about exciting announcements imminently from the KRG.
Marathon haven't even bothered to pull the original filepath from their website:
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-DZ30I/1856267346x0x564151/043de6da-96c9-4dde-94d4-2993299ad799/IPAA%20OGIS%202012%20Energy%20Conference%20FINAL.pdf
Someone also kindly found an independent link anyhow in case Marathon's version goes missing.
http://docsearch.derrickpetroleum.com/files/22218/Marathon_Oil_2012_IPAA_Oil___Gas_Symposia.pdf
The wider market does not yet know, some parts of the market will have heard rumours but Kurdistan is an investment prospect where speculation is treated with distrust and information is processed with sceptism.
There is a perfect explanation why Marathon spotted this anomaly, or sought to correct it at least, after it was flagged here & on advfn. I will not divulge but can only say that not all Kurdish operators are in the loop and this news came as a surprise to other names as much as it did on this board. I will say no further as ascribed from earlier.
i doubt this is solely Total. If it were then the logical thing would be to announce sooner. ENi Chevron and others have also been rumoured, but until now are still just "rumours". I think you are therefore deviating from the scenario I am insinuating.
As for prices, I think our current discounts will see good revaluation in our favour chronologically after the news hits home properly. Turkish pipes too, if they are to arrive within 2 years I expect some analysts will revisit their assessment of our net future revenues.
We do not know exactly when the announcements will be made, however Maliki's ultimatum concludes this coming Monday, May 14th. I anticipate the KRG are planning soon to announce the new IOCs regardless because:
Scenario A
They intend to declare Maliki and the efforts for a unified Oil & Gas Law as failed. Given the persistent unresolved disputes, the KRG will disengage and commence in decoupling Kurdistan as an independent oil economy from federal Iraq. To validate their claims and exemplify legal grounds, the KRG will ceremoniously announced our new foreign IOCs who have signed, the likes of Total, ENI, Chevron. Kurdistan will begin to function under an independent framework in line with constitutional, but outside the main jurisdiction of federal Iraq which becomes a rubber stamp in the case of Kurdish autonomy.
Scenario B:
Maliki is forced to agree to all opposition demands at the 11th hour to save his coalition. In conjunction to this will include the Kurdish demands around the Oil & Gas Law. Undisputed now in their constitutional rights, and masters of their destiny, the KRG will immediately announce the new IOCs to earmark their authority.
Either way, I can only see the IOC announcements are imminent and highly political. How long have we waited for political derisking throughout the months and years as investors. A year ago I would have speculated but still found it hard to believe where we are today. After this weekend, perhaps everything will change... permanently.
Author joseki View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted Friday 23:41
Subject REPORT SUBSEQUENTLY ALTERED View parent message
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 59 times.
Message
Marathon Oil have now updated their presentation.
Instead of removing just Total and letting on they have made a mistake in reporting Total, all explorers including Exxon, Hess, Murphy & Repsol have been removed completely from the exploration map.
There is nothing they can actually say, a mistake as obvious as a competitor name "Total" in specific blocks "Khalikan" and "Arbat" is no accidental mistake or fat finger, in my humble opinion.. but a specific and detailed reference to specific and detailed knowledge.
Compare p28 between the newly updated and the old presentations:
Latest
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-DZ30I/1856267346x0x564151/043de6da-96c9-4dde-94d4-2993299ad799/IPAA%20OGIS%202012%20Energy%20Conference%20FINAL.pdf
Original
http://docsearch.derrickpetroleum.com/files/22218/Marathon_Oil_2012_IPAA_Oil___Gas_Symposia.pdf
Time to let the board clowns throw their silly spiel with their negative spin, they are conjurers.
But henceforth I will no longer broker this topic further, but await and happily respect the KRG's implicit wishes for silence... for good cause and good reason.
Belief gets validated or invalidated eventually. I see nothing but further validation of news embargo and imminent announcement from the Kurdish Regional Government and the Kurdish Ministry for Natural Resource.
Stokie2
21UP
"How close is this board being monitered by 'them'?..or is it just a coincidence that marathon amended the presentation today?"
-------------------------------------------------------------
I think it is quite obvious by now that iii, advfn etc are closely monitored on a continuous basis by everybody with a vested interest in GKP.
I would be more interested to find out how many of us are actually employees of II's, oil companies, mm's etc?!?!
---
I doubt the decoupling will be completely, as the Kurds will never cut all ties and leave KirKuk behind.
Mikey
11:24
Re: TOTAL in PCI Presentation also
Hub
16UP
santo,
PCI had Total in kurdistan back in Feb I think.
We are suffering from what they call the 'kurdy time lag'. We saw it on Exxon and we are seeing it on Total etc.
The thing that gets me is why did TK do a surprise placing at 140p last year when he would have known full well Exxon news was coming? Who took that 140p placing?
We know a few of them but by no means all of them.
Was it another mates rates placing before major news?
All the companies in kurdistan must be frustrated about what they can publish and what they can't. It must be very hard for them when trying to boost investment interest when they are unsure of what's in the public domain and what is not.
Of course it would be alot easier all round if the KRG just issued the news in 'real time' rather than Kurdy lag time.
But then I guess certain opportunities would be missed which come with the benefit of having a self created hindsight time warp.
What we have learned over the last few weeks is the following imho.
1. GKP and KRG read social media
2. KRG are holding back information that should be 'out there'
3. Local O&G companies know exactly what is going on, who's got what and when.
4. All of the above in the wrong hands lends itself to 'trading' the markets with inside knowledge in a way that is tantamount to printing money. In one of the most corrupt areas of the world - monetising oil assets on a local basis involves risky across border trucking which has been highlighted by several press sources. But trading the market through offshore accounts using a 'kurdy time lag' negates any risks with trucks or iranians etc - it's easy, it's fast and in most cases very hard to trace.
The longer the golden goose is allowed to live the better. Hence, if GKP was bought out tomorrow and delisted from AIM - a revenue stream is lost.
Sure - a great windfull will be made from any sale - but why rush it?
Just think what the last 5 months has achieved - GKP's sp has gone from 190p to 450p and back to 190p again. That's a full round trip, money made and the game is set to go again (we all hope).
If it does reach 450p in the near future, then for those using Kurdy lag time watches, it will feel more like 900p.
The FSA really needs to look closely at Kurdistan and the oil companies with exposure that list on AIM with more regulation. A full investigation into the fund managers doing offshore deals for Kurdistan residents should also be done.
It's ridiculous that there are places to 'hide' - although as seen by the recent debacle with JPM whereby Kurdish oil minister Ashti Hawrami was the "Mr. A" who received two emails from J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) banker Ian Hannam in 2008.
It's clear that the institutions, the kurd oil ministers etc have been or are on a communication basis.
In a corrupt region of the world - it's no surprise that many have become very deft at beating the market at their own games.
HUB
====
17:19
Reason for the Carnage - Risk Off
stopthismadness
28UP
In other to understand recent trading activity, look no further that the Risk Off trade
This is when risky assets are liquidated quickly in favour of safe havens during times of anxiety
Flooding risky assets with sell liquidity in times of panic exagerrates the drop and this is the main reason why GKP has dropped to as low as possible.
It is not only GKP and from recent highs
RRL down 43%
Bor down 42%
RMP down 44%
BLVN down 51%
RKH down 22%
Des down 33%
Afren down 23%
The list goes on and on and on and not restricted to GKP
Whilst the management has been quick to come up with an rns tackling Placing, the drop is not down to that.
When there is panic, risky assets are hit hardest and what we have seen during the last few months confirmed this
Some falls are genuine but the drop has been overdone by risk of plays accross the energy sector
So the major game changer fundamental rns in town is
THE EURO
Since it became evident that France and Greece will elect anti fiscal pact gov'ts. the market has moved into a risk off trade and this can be seen with numerous assets
you can not say that all these assets above had the same rumour, bad news, speculation at the same time and I have analysed nearly 50 risky assets and it is the same story
So as this Euro game patters out, there could be more carnage or you can pick up some real bargains for assets that have been oversold.
If fall of GKP was down to placing, then the rise wouldn't had been halted after just one day following the rns.
Having said above, TA can and should still be used to trade in and out of positions making gains.
But essentially the play is as follows
Flood the orderbook and OTC orders with sell liquidity on risky assets and you will get an impbalance over a few weeks / months leading to where we are today.
Detailed TA / Orderbook analysis to follow as we move towards the EURO end game
Here is a chart which tells the whole story
GBP/EURO - Striaght line rise from 1.12 to 1.24. Significant and massive in currency terms.
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/851/chartva.png/
the Pound is considered more of a safe haven than the Euro and that says a lot considering
grown is below Eurozone
UK entered into double dip
BOE printing more cash devaluing currency
Austerity showing no signs of let off
Export getting worse again
But the EURO is worse and thats why the GBP is moving stronger and stronger why? because it is at a cross roads
If Greece fails, then focus moves to spain and then italy and the ECB EU, IMF can't bail out Spain or Italy
So trade carefully when in Risk off mode. Rises can be steep (as well as drops as already seen)
stm
======
Author GRH1 View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted Thursday 12:45
Subject PROCESS
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 124 times.
Message
All
back on 26 NOV last year, I posted the following...
please see the words below the line...
it set out the NEED for GKP to be able to evaluate bids against a standard 'model'
lest they be unable to evaluate bids that might be very different both as to
nature and amount
it might not sound like much perhaps...
but I assure you that it can be all but impossible to evaluate bids one against another UNLESS one is 'regimented/ strict' in the approach
IMO, the arrival of first Mark Hanson ,and more latterly PW, has greatly benefited GKP as I have no doubt at all that, for some time past, we have had a 'model' against which bidders are being evaluated...
it is by no means a simple task and the sheer scale of the GKP finds and the game changing impact upon inter alia (Among other things.)the KRG will have made the task much more complex
A few observations if I may mention them...
I know that there are some highly experienced M&A people on this blog...
so this is really intended for anyone who has NOT had direct and relevant experience of these things
1) Following their appointment ,PW will have developed a 'model' such as I implied in November
2) They will have then carried out their initial 'trawl'(To catch (fish) with a trawl/net) of interested parties some time ago
3) Standard M&A practice will be then to have rapidly reduced the number of expressions of interest
to maybe 3 or 4 serious bidders ...individual or consortia...
who will then have been invited to produce their 'sharpest pencil' as it were
4) Many here are concerned to see a speedy resolution to matters as the market is 'red in tooth and claw' (I posted last year)...to the cost of many
but again, in my experience, it would be unusual to see a fully crafted/final deal done in the time elapsed since PW were instructed...
but we might be pleasantly surprised...I do not KNOW that so please do not try to read too much into my wording
(some of my largest deals have taken well over a year to conclude...
so maybe it is a good job that GKP have got PW doing it and not me )
5) I am immensely encouragd by the precise wording of todays' RNS...
BIDDER being slap bang in line with what I hoped to see...
but also by the fact that they put out the RNS at all
I fully agree with another poster here that the Company might have used the RNS opportunity to provide us with a clue or two re progress...
and that might be in the face of embargo etc
6) and in case anyone posts the usual mantra tomorrow...
no... I would not want to be out
Regards
GRH1
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All...
there have been many posts of late referring to
'GKP is ..or must be ...in talks with X, Y or Z' ...etc
and you know what?
I think they are almost all true
but...and it is a big 'but' ...
I am unaware IF GKP and the KRG have developed a bidding 'model' against which bids are to be evaluated...
but I somehow doubt it
Why do I mention this?
simple really...I have bought and sold quite a few Companies over the past couple of hundred years ...yes, I am quite old now!
and in my experience, without such 'model' , it will be open to interested parties to put forward their own preferred /differentiated structures...
no two of which are likely to be the same...
Thus, it will likely prove 'challenging' to evaluate the relative merits of competing 'offers' ...
which might involve, inter alia
straight offers for our % of assets..
one or more such assets
offers for our % of assets plus BIRs/carried interests
offers for whole Company
offers for part of GKP...increase shares in issue by new equity...JV
offers from multiple interested parties...
or nation states of course...you know my thinking on this latter point
AND of course the above can be cash and/or shares...
AND all from Companies with greatly differing prospects/SP histories
AND the KRG will have rather a lot to say I would think with regard to their preferred new partners
so a complex mix to say the least...
and, quite frankly I do not know what relevant experience exists within GKP to control the process...
or at least keep one step ahead of it...
the Company has performed near miracles IMO with regard to bootstrapping a micro company to a much bigger league...
but they are now into yet another league of decision making...
HOW to square the over-arching interests of the KRG with those of the shareholders incl the BoDs?
Hmmmm...
what would I do if I lacked that relevant experience?
surely, I would want to beef-up my in house experience level
might Mark Hanson be able to assist
BTW...does anyone know his domicile...
in view of BoD % offshore requirements?
Regards
GRH1
===
Author pathai View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted Tuesday 14:06
Subject ExxonMobil Caught in Iraq Political Standoff
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http://oilinvestingnews.com/6847-exxonmobil-caught-in-iraq-political-standoff.html
Tuesday May 15, 2012, 4:00am PDT
By Adam Currie - Exclusive to Oil Investing News
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One of the world’s largest oil producers, ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), has found itself in the middle of a political minefield as it attempts to take advantage of one of the largest oil plays in the Middle Eastern crude powerhouse of Iraq.
In October 2011, ExxonMobil signed production sharing contracts for six blocks covering 848,000 acres in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The deal was labelled a success by analysts in that the blocks fall within the Zagros fold belt region – considered by experts to be the highest potential onshore crude location in the world.
A lot has happened in a short amount of time. Last month it was confirmed that ExxonMobil had not made the final list of 47 pre-qualified bidders for the fourth round of Iraq energy exploration rights on the basis that it had signed a deal with the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
Out of the race
The aim of the fourth round is primarily to expand Iraq’s natural gas production capacity to satisfy the power generation sector and create gas-based industries, as well as increase the country’s crude reserves. The auction covers twelve new exploration blocks, which could add a potential 29 trillion cubic feet of gas and 10 billion barrels of crude to Iraqi reserves.
The KRG and Baghdad have had long-running disputes over political autonomy, oil rights, and contested territories, while hostilities rose recently after a clash over oil exports. Tensions reached new heights when in April the KRG suspended its supply of oil for export through the national Iraqi pipeline, claiming that Baghdad had not fully repaid operating costs to producing companies. The Iraqi government responded by threatening to deduct what the oil would have generated in sales from the KRG’s annual budget allocation – potentially halving it.
Regulatory uncertainty
According to the Iraqi Oil Ministry website, Exxon has been removed from the list, while Syrian General Oil has been added as a pre-qualified bidder, highlighting the fact that as major oil companies enter geologically-promising but politically-challenging jurisdictions they face increasing regulatory uncertainty.
“Exxon Mobil was disqualified from the fourth bidding round because of its contract with the Kurdistan Regional Government,” Sabah Abdul-Kadhim, head of the legal section of Iraq’s Petroleum Contracts and Licensing Directorate, told Reuters. “We made it clear to Exxon Mobil from the beginning that they should cancel contracts they signed with Kurdistan, otherwise they would face tough measures from the oil ministry.”
According to reports, the Iraqi government and ministry were infuriated when news of Exxon’s deal with the KRG was announced. Kadhim went on to add that any company that signs any deal with the KRG will not be allowed to participate in any bidding rounds organized by Iraq’s oil ministry.
Poor timing
The timing of the cut is poor. Crude is trading near the $100 per barrel range, and the International Energy Agency has confirmed that Iraq’s crude production rose by 195,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April to 3.03 million barrels. The country’s oil exports also rose to 2.51 million bpd – the highest level since 1979.
While many have been surprised by the decision to cut such an influential player from the bidding process, it highlights the long-standing tension between Iraq and the KRG, which strongly believes that it has the right to undertake deals independently. Many believe the KRG has woken a sleeping giant that will use its clout with international oil companies to contain Kurdistan’s ambitions.
While the action of omitting Exxon was a shock, many had felt that by striking a deal to explore reservoirs with the KRG, ExxonMobil could also be in danger of losing its West Qurna field deal with the central government. The field contains 43 billion barrels and is considered the second-largest oil field in the world; the country’s ministry has since confirmed that the West Qurna deal is not under threat.
“Untrustworthy partners”
According to International Crisis Group (ICG), a non-governmental organization committed to preventing and resolving conflict, the disagreement between Iraq and the KRG lies in that of the six explorations blocks making up the Exxon deal, two, along with a corner of a third, lie across the Green Line, which divides the KRG from the rest of Iraq.
“While ExxonMobil may have calculated that by doing so it could help bring Baghdad and Erbil to the table and effect progress on a federal hydrocarbons law, the likelier outcome is that both sides will further entrench their positions, thus increasing the chances of violent conflict,” the ICG noted. “From Baghdad’s perspective, the Kurds are making mincemeat of any attempt to have a unified federal oil strategy; increasingly, it views them as untrustworthy partners in government who are seeking to break up the country.”
The ministry is sending out a very clear message to those in the production business with its iron-fist approach seeming to have had the intended effect. French company Total (NYSE:TOT), along with Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) were reportedly contemplating deals with the KRG, but have since pulled out on fears of being excluded from the greater Iraqi oil play.
This latest move will send shudders throughout the market. While many might consider the region to be the “wild west” in relation to supply, decision makers within the upper levels of oil majors will have to realize that this region is unique and that respect and personal interrelations are still very much the foundations of an industry too often swayed by financial gain.
Securities Disclosure: I, Adam Currie, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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Author senn1965 View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 19:24
Subject TODD'S SHORT PANTS???
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Todd Kozel, GKP’s hugely colourful executive chairman from Texas, told The Independent on Sunday: “We’re not that little kid in short-pants anymore, it’s time to move to the full list. We’re working on it [a full listing] operationally, internally, administratively and I’d like to have this done in April, maybe May.”
Mr Kozel, inset below, said the recent rise, which has seen the price climb from 128p at the end of October to 411p at close of play on Friday, was due to the “world waking up” to the vast oil reserves GKP possesses in the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan in Iraq. This increased share price values the company at around £3.5bn
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SO WHERE THE HELLL IS IT THEN OR WAS THIS PART OF THE PUMP??????????????
Dam set to burst ?
jilted
15UP
Sept 09' we hit £1.24 ! And that was with just 1.9 odd bbls OIP !
More than two and a half years on and 11+ bbls more, we're barely 70p up, crazy !
Author jilted View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 06:53
Subject Dam set to burst ?
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On the horizon:
SH 5/6 TD & testing
SH 5/6 Tied into 1/3 EWT
Upgrade of SH 1/3 EWT
New EWT facility SH 2
SA 2 Spud
Pipeline plans for SH
FDP for SH
AB Stake sale
BIRs bought on SH ?
BB 1 results
DGA / Ryder Scott report
Fracture report
KRG / Turkey export agreement ?
Shaikan JV or sale ?
FTSE listing ?
T/O ?
We're almost half way through 2012 already. The newsflow is backing up. The dam has to break sooner or later and the SP must surely reach a more realistic level. I doubt anyone of us would have believed we'd be still sitting here sub £2 at this point, it can't go on much longer, surely !?
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Oil workers kidnapped in Basra
Iraqi soldiers talk to motorists as they stop vehicles at a military checkpoint in Basra
Iraqi soldiers man a checkpoint in Basra, in December 2007. Kidnappers posing as Iraqi police set up a fake checkpoint on May 13, 2012 near Basra's Rumaila oil field, and abducted four oil workers from the Athens-based Consolidated Contractors Company. (ATEF HASSAN/Reuters)
By Ben Lando, Ali Abu Iraq and Staff of Iraq Oil Report
Published May 17, 2012
Four employees of Athens-based Consolidated Contractors Company (CCC) are still missing, four days after being kidnapped in Basra.
"They were stopped by a fake military checkpoint," said Ali al-Maliki, the head of the security and defense committee in the Basra Provincial Council, "and have been taken to an unknown location."
The workers, who operated out of the company's pipeline fabrication plant near the Rumaila oil field, were taken from their car along a main road near a village calle...
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