Pakistan cannot be described as a failed state, but it is not a success story either. Pakistan is a troubled state that faces the threat of going under due mainly to internal problems and external pressures. However, it also has the potential to overcome these challenges and shape up as a reasonably effective state
A widely shared concern at the international level is Pakistan’s uncertain future. This perspective questions the long-range capacity of the Pakistani state to effectively fulfil its obligations towards the citizenry and the international community.
Several predictions of catastrophic end were made before and after the break-up of Pakistan in 1971. The popular civilian leadership of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto surmounted the crisis of confidence in the immediate aftermath of the separation of Bangladesh. However, the issue of Pakistan’s troubled and uncertain future continued to haunt the Pakistani and other political analysts and historians.
In 1983, Tariq Ali published his book Can Pakistan Survive? The Death of a State, that attributed Pakistan’s “chronic instability” to its internal contradictions and regional geopolitical factors against the backdrop of Soviet military intervention in Afghanistan and the Iranian Revolution. He went on to suggest that,
“the question which now increasingly haunts the new generation in Pakistan is not simply whether the country can survive, but whether its existence was necessary in the first place.”
A varying degree of pessimism about the future direction of Pakistan’s political system was expressed by a couple of other writers. However, these predictions did not come true and Pakistan managed to cope with the challenges.
In the early1990s, a new notion of ‘failed state’ emerged out of the internal turmoil in Somalia and a couple of other African states like Rwanda, Burundi and Ethiopia. These developments were described as ‘the coming of anarchy’ from the perspective of the major players in the international system, especially the US.
Some writers attempted to fix the label of a failed state on Pakistan. Others thought that Pakistan was a ‘failing’ rather than ‘failed’ state. Several writers on Pakistan who thought that Pakistan could not be compared with Somalia and Rwanda where the nation-state structure and institutions had totally collapsed and the economy was in ruins effectively challenged this perspective. Pakistan faces enormous problems but its state institutions like the bureaucracy and the military continue to be effective to sustain the state system. Pakistan’s political institutions and processes and societal operations cannot be described as being close to some ruinous end. The economy, though troubled, is much better than African states like Somalia and the Sudan.
Pakistan cannot be described as a failed state, but it is not a success story either. Pakistan is a troubled state that faces the threat of going under due mainly to internal problems and external pressures. However, it also has the potential to overcome these challenges and shape up as a reasonably effective state. Pakistan can go either way: decline and fragment or emerge as a functional democracy and middle-level economy. It cannot turn itself into a coherent democracy and stable economy without international financial, technical and diplomatic support.
Pakistan faces four key challenges: religious extremism and terrorism, poor governance, feeble economy that is heavily dependent on external assistance and the misplaced priorities of the political class.
Religious extremism and militancy are the most serious internal threats to societal harmony, political stability and economic poise. The bomb explosions in Karachi in the course of the Muharram (December) and Chehlum (February) processions were stark reminders of the threat of Islamic-sectarianism. The off-again and on-again conflict in Kurram Agency during 2007-2009 and the killings of the Hazaras in and around Quetta in the past manifested the same malice. The Ahmadi community has often been a target of the wrath of Islamic zealots. The Gojra incident (2009) against the Christian community was another example of increased religious intolerance.
The major cities of Pakistan, especially Peshawar, were hit by a series of suicide attacks and bomb explosions during October-December 2009 as the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) retaliated against the military action in South Waziristan. As long as religious extremism and terrorist activities in the name of Islam are not curbed, Pakistan will find it difficult to come out of its current predicament.
The federal government is so occupied with terrorism-related issues that it does not have time and resources to improve governance and ensure the quality of life for the ordinary people. Administrative laxity, incoherent management of public affairs, corruption and lack of accountability of officials have adversely affected the output of the government, causing much alienation at the level of the common person.
The feeble economy is the most serious constraint on the capacity of the Pakistani state and the government to perform its primary duties towards the citizenry. Both federal and provincial governments appear helpless in the face of strong economic mafias that manipulate supplies to markets to increase prices of essential commodities.
The economy has also suffered due to acute electric power and gas shortages and the federal and provincial governments have no vision to cope with these problems that have increased joblessness and poverty. The economy is heavily dependent on foreign economic assistance and remittances from overseas Pakistanis. There is no vision to reduce dependence on external economic assistance.
Pakistan is not likely to come out of its current socio-economic difficulties in the near future. This increases the threat of anarchy, if not total collapse, in many parts of Pakistan. Some people would argue that Pakistan already faces an anarchic situation in several areas.
What appears most tragic is that the political leaders and other politically active circles have misplaced priorities. They devote less attention to the above-mentioned threats and pay more attention to advancing their partisan agendas. Their key interests appear to be how to get rid of Zardari; will there be a clash between the Supreme Court and the executive; illegally constructed plazas and buildings need to be pulled own; and how to restrain the government from pursuing security action against the Taliban.
The opposition hardly offers any alternate vision on coping with terrorism and reviving the economy. These issues surface in their political discourse only for criticising the government.
There is hardly any thinking about the imperatives of the new security situation against the backdrop of India’s offer to Pakistan to initiate a dialogue and the US decision to step up military activity in Afghanistan while seeking the political option of reconciliation with selected Taliban. What are Pakistani stakes in these contexts? What are the options available to Pakistan at the operational level in view of economic and political constraints?
Pakistan needs to ease tensions on its borders in order to devote more attention to putting its internal political and economic house in order. Pakistan should work towards reducing its liabilities on the border with India and Afghanistan. The dialogue offer needs to be fully explored to cool down the situation on the India-Pakistan border and the LoC. For Afghanistan, it should not return to the highly intrusive policy of the pre-September 2001 period. It should work towards facilitating internal harmony and stability in Afghanistan without betting on some horse.
A low profile regional posture will give enough time to the civilian government and the political leadership to address the political and economic problems. The military will also have more time to cope with religious extremism and terrorism inside Pakistan. There is a need to draw strength from within which is not possible without strengthening the economy and increasing internal political harmony. This calls for a thorough review of the priorities of the political class and the military top brass.
Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi is a political and defence analyst
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