Exclusive: House Benghazi panel subpoenas former Clinton White House aide

Exclusive: House Benghazi panel subpoenas former Clinton White House aide Tue, May 19 22:12 PM EDT image By Mark Hosenball WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Congressional investigators have issued a subpoena demanding that former Clinton White House adviser Sidney Blumenthal testify next month before the House of Representatives committee investigating the 2012 attack on U.S. diplomatic facilities in Benghazi, Libya. The subpoena, a copy of which was made available to Reuters, demands that Blumenthal appear before the House committee on June 3 to give a deposition. The subpoena is dated Monday but carries a notation indicating an unnamed deputy U.S. marshal served it on Blumenthal's wife on Tuesday. The copy of the subpoena contains no further details about the subject matter of the deposition. "I can confirm Mr. Blumenthal has been called for a deposition by the committee," Jamal Ware, a spokesman for Republican Representative Trey Gowdy, the Benghazi committee chairman, said in response to a Reuters query. More than two years ago, a set of emails sent by Blumenthal to Hillary Clinton while she served as secretary of state were posted on the Internet by a hacker who called himself Guccifer. Blumenthal did not work for Clinton when she was secretary of state and sent those emails as a private individual. The emails included detailed private intelligence reports on events in Libya sent to Blumenthal by Tyler Drumheller, a former senior CIA officer. Some of the emails were sent around the time of the Benghazi attacks on and discussed information Drumheller's sources gave him about the attack. On Tuesday, The New York Times published a handful of emails showing that Clinton had passed on some of the private intelligence reports to aides and other State Department personnel. The messages show that at least one of the private intelligence reports made its way to a recipient who appears to have been Christopher Stevens, the U.S. ambassador to Libya who was killed by militants during the Sept. 11, 2012, Benghazi attacks. The emails, part of a batch of around 300 messages related to Libya that the State Department turned over to Gowdy's Benghazi committee earlier this year, show Clinton herself tersely expressing interest in some of the private intelligence reports and skepticism about others. In one email to an aide, Clinton, referring to one of the reports supplied by Blumenthal, wrote: "This strains credulity. What do you think?" People familiar with the set of Clinton emails turned over by the State Department to Gowdy's committee said that the emails leaked to The New York Times were not a complete set of messages related to what Blumenthal sent Clinton. Blumenthal is a former journalist who served in the Clinton White House as one of the most loyal defenders of both Hillary Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton. During the congressional investigation into Bill Clinton's relationship with White House intern Monica Lewinsky, Blumenthal was accused by a longtime friend, the late British writer Christopher Hitchens, of spreading defamatory information about Lewinsky. Blumenthal denied the allegation. In response to an email requesting comment, Blumenthal sent Reuters an article from a liberal blog accusing Gowdy and The New York Times of producing a "damp squib." A spokesman for Clinton did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Representative Elijah Cummings, the top Democrat on the House Benghazi panel, accused committee Republicans of grandstanding. "There was no need for the Select Committee to send two U.S. Marshals to the home of Sidney Blumenthal to serve his wife with a subpoena, especially since the Committee never bothered to contact him first to ask him whether he would voluntarily come in. These heavy-handed, aggressive, and unnecessary tactics waste the time of the U.S. Marshal service," he said via email. (Additional reporting by Susan Cornwell; Editing by Peter Cooney, Leslie Adler and Ken Wills)

Baghdads empty legal threats reflect weakness

Over and out for me. This is my last post on this board. Best wishes to all in GKP. I hope that everyone gets £8-£22 / share and that there is then the mother of all takeover parties. s_k Some interesting pictures of Erbil in this article: http://en.chessbase.com/post/boringly-safe-in-kurdistani-iraq-part-1 ================== Author Elikkos Georghiades View Profile Add to favourites Ignore Date posted Thursday 23:45 Subject Votes for this Posting Voted UP 87 times. Message Lets be clear about this so called threat from Baghdad. First, this is a threat directed at Majors who might be interested in buying the exported pipeline oil. It most certainly is not a threat directed at any company selling the oil. Indeed, as others have pointed out, the oil is not theirs to sell and in any event it would only be exported via the pipeline on direction of the lawful owners, namely the KRG. Interestingly, for all the constant and persistent accusations of "illegality" from Baghdad since Maliki came to power, Baghdad have never taken any steps to obtain a legal ruling from any European or for that matter, any court, upon the validity of their claims. "The central government threatened to sue over the shipments in a long-running dispute.... but it took no legal action". And its even more interesting now that this matter has escalated and come to a head, that they direct what they claim are legal threats, at Major buyers of oil and not the KRG sellers, with whom the real issue of legality exists. "Interesting" is perhaps the wrong word....."hardly surprising", would be more appropriate. Would /could Baghdad institute legal proceedings against the KRG in any other foreign jurisdiction and run the risk of losing their longstanding claims against the KRG. ? They undoubtedly have their own lawyers to advise them and (from my own legal research into the issue) they would doubtless have advised, that their claim is anything BUT strong. From my own research into the Iraqi constitution, I understand that, in essence the KRG contends that Baghdads claims to sole rights of export covered only existing discovered fields at the time of the constitution, and not the new oilfields like Shaikan that were discovered subsequently. Moreover, there is a constitutional basis for the KRG's contention. Secondly one might well ask if this is in reality a "LEGAL" threat? I categorically and unequivocally say NO. REASONS 1) There is no such thing as hiring a law firm to "TARGET" a buyer of such illegal oil export. What exactly is meant by "target"? Moreover, what does the anonymous Iraqi official mean by "Iraq's oil ministry instructed legal firm Vinson and Elkins about two months ago to pursue anyone who buys oil" ? A threat is only legal, if one intends to use a court of proper jurisdiction to enforce ones claim. For Baghdad to legally enforce a claim that the buyer has bought illegal oil belonging to Iraq, it needs a court to enforce its claim that the purchase was illegal.. Indeed, a defendant buyer of such oil would, contend in that same court that it bought the oil from the legitimate owners, namely the KRG. There would then have to be a ruling on Baghdads prnicipal claim that PSC contracts are illegal......which is most certainly NOT what the Iraqi goverment wants. So I am not in the least bit surprised to read that "Vinson and Elkins, which has represented the Iraqi government in the past, declined to comment." There is of course the other small matter, that any legal action instituted by Baghdad would take a very long time before it was heard by which time Maliki and his band of not so merry men could have long gone So what is Baghdad really trying to do with these threats. In short they are picking on what they consider to be the weakest link in this dispute and trying to frighten them into believing that Baghdad will take legal action if they buy the said oil. " "Instead of going after the KRG, they are going after people who will lift oil from them" However, the real threat is one of blackmail rather than "legal" and will only work if the oil major has other oil interests in Baghdad which it does not wish to risk losing. That is indeed why, " Executives from oil majors have said they won't touch KRG crude before the Kurds and Baghdad reach an agreement for fear of losing larger contracts with the central government. However, I entirely agree with other lawyers when they say that " Baghdad would struggle to make a case stick and any litigation would be complicated by questions of jurisdiction, but the threat could deter companies reluctant to deal with the negative headlines." It is indeed just the threat which is intended to deter companies from buying the said oil. But the threat is empty for it is devoid of sanction and is therefore toothless. If for the purposes of argument, a company like Exon or Chevron were to buy that oil, it would be interesting to see how Baghdad would respond. In my opinion it would NOT. Assuming the accuracy of these reports |I think its a great pity that the KRG have promised not to go ahead with exports until agreement with Baghdad is reached. By building the pipeline, they have skilfully and successfully brought this whole thorny problem to a head and now of all time, when the opposition are at their weakest (with the pending Iraqi elections), is the best time to force them to come to a resolution. Now is most certainly not the time, to make promises not to export the oil until its resolved. Equally, its very unfortunate that Turkey, deems it fit to couch its response / position in ambiguous terms, i.e. " to seek the central government's permission, but not its blessing, in exporting KRG oil." If the KRG, Turkey, and any potential Major buyer of the oil, remained resolute against Baghdad's empty threats, what on earth could Maliki's government do ?.....Absolutely nothing!!. And that is exactly what would guarantee that Maliki is not re elected, for he will be humiliated in the eyes of the sufferring Iraqi electorate. And this is also precisely why Maliki would (in that event climb down), even before the April elections and be forced into arriving at an agreement which by implication recognises the legality of the KRG's position. Then and only then could he if needs be, count on the KRG's support to return him to power. Elikkos ========================== "Boringly Safe" in Kurdistani Iraq! Part 1 by Alina L'Ami 12/25/2013 – The ever adventurous and fearless globetrotter Alina l'Ami has recently finished a tournament in... Kurdistani Iraq! Specifically the tournament was the second Kurdistan Chess Festival held in Erbil, Iraq. Several strong players were not put off by rumors of danger zones or by the unusual location and enjoyed a magnificent and unique experience. Alina brings us a beautiful report. “So what is your next tournament on the agenda, Alina?” “2nd Kurdistan Chess Festival, in Erbil”, I reply with enthusiasm. “And where exactly is that?” “Well, in Iraqi Kurdistan.” “Iraq??? Are you completely out of your mind?” Years of experience have taught me that being a true globe-trotter requires a multi-faceted preparation before any new trip. In the beginning I thought things were simple: you step into the airplane and after arriving at your destination, you let the place unfold its own and unique story. This approach was not out of laziness; I was convinced this is the best way of perceiving the reality without being influenced by the others’ (travellers, friends, columnists) opinions. My flight to Irbil is ready for boarding...so many emotions I had, what should I expect, will it be safe, will it be as nice as I imagined?! For now, it seems I did my homework well enough: 2 degrees at destination, so my warm coat will be of good use:) Gradually, I understood that so many times I didn’t get any wiser by using this kind of “system”. It is advisable to do some preliminary research before departing to a remote and unknown place; otherwise you might just look at things without really seeing or hearing anything important. You will not get the story the place is telling you without a bit of earing in and a gram of loving... And to get ready for it, you definitely need to know a bit of what you should expect and what to be focused on when looking around. My recent travelling to Irbil, in the Iraqi Kurdistan, is an excellent proof that doing your homework before departure actually helps you avoiding prejudices! The process started somewhat under the pressure of my self-preservation instinct, which proved a fair counter-weight to my usual pleasant creeps whenever I feel there is some challenge involved. But maybe my adventurous spirit would have prevailed had it not been for the members of my family, who under no circumstances would have let me go without proving them I was going to be safe... The view from my room - typical for such destinations: endless number of antennas! The entire region is developing very fast and in fact, we were not really in Erbil but in Ankawa, in the outskirts of Arbil . You will see in the upcoming photos the contrasts - fascinating life style! More carpets displayed in a rather unorthodox manner but much easier to decide: you can touch, you can look, you can easily find what you want to bring back home. Kurdistan enjoys a certain degree of autonomy. For instance, I would have needed a Visa for Iraq, but I was not required one for the Kurdistan region! Still, it is not a country of its own, being part of Iraq; moreover, it is placed not really far from the border with Syria and rather close to the area of conflict between Turks and Kurds, not to mention several other issues within the neighbourhood... From far, it sounds like trouble! Wholesale district All these determined me making a more thorough research than ever before stepping into this new adventure. I checked and double-checked every detail and the result was simply astonishing! I was and still am amazed by the beauty of the Kurdish culture! Kurdistan enjoys enviable safety; over the last ten years there was almost no terrorist attempt, no bomb exploding or suspicious cars... This is quite different in Baghdad especially or Mosul and Kirkuk, where dozens of bombs fall daily… In some parts of Iraq it is customary that people go to work in the morning without knowing whether they will return home safely in the evening, but although Kurdistan belongs to the same country, what Kurds have accomplished here is a model worth following. Alina l'Ami in an outdoor exchange office... would anyone leave their money unattended in any European City, or displayed like that? At first, I was a bit confused about the numerous spellings of the name of Kurdistan’s capital: Erbil, Irbil, Arbil, Hawler. But later, this became a revealing detail: the former three are explained by the different Arabic languages, while the latter, used by the Kurds, speaks about the individuality of the place and its people. Indeed, there are millions of Kurds of Turkish, Iraqi, Iranian and Syrian provenience, who don’t have a proper state of their own; Iraq is the only country where there is a clearly defined, although not completely independent, Kurdish territory. Tobacco sellers were abundant in the streets Street food: delicious! Not to mention that if I was looking at it just for one second, I was inevitably invited to taste...such several stops in the market and soon I would get myself into trouble! This one is some sort of vegetable which is eaten with salt; and the juice is very good for your throat, which was more than welcome in my case, since I got a terrible cold. Some of the most delicious recipes one can find not in the fancy restaurants but...right on the streets! This is called "Kuba" and it has meat inside; but to be honest, I was more interested in the warm hearted locals, who were rewarding me with their contagious smile Erbil/Hawler is reported to be one of the oldest continuously inhabited city in the world, with more than 6000 years of existence. In 2014, it will be the capital of tourism in the Arab World, overtaking such popular destinations as Dubai! I only wonder if the European tourists will manage to win the inner psychological battle with their stereotypes and fears... I know this is not simple and I confess that convincing my family about the safety of my endeavour was easier than... getting peace of mind for myself! Even after collecting all the encouraging information, I spent two sleepless nights (or maybe more): could I be sure I was not heading straight for trouble? the heart of Erbil: very modern, isn't it?! Certainly not what I expected Souvenirs, it is hard to come back empty handed from this place Soon after making up my mind, I discovered how tiring it was explaining again and again to my friends how safe it was going to be. I could feel the disbelief and well-intended worry in their eyes and voices, as well as the conviction that I was the same irresponsible girl hunting dangerous adventures! Therefore, I started avoiding getting into detail; words like Iraq or Syria became taboo and I was just telling to my friends that Kurdistan is somewhere near Turkey! Later I found out that some of the participants of the Second International Kurdistan Chess Festival went even further. They told their families that they were going to play a tournament in…Istanbul Well, I am sorry if this article will spoil their under-cover strategy! The Kurdish flag's day: I was very very lucky to get this photo and the previous ones as well, with the overview of the center. Normally, because of the restoration works, this part of the citadel is closed to the public. But the guards simply allowed me to enter! Can you guess what is the white stuff the man is selling? I bet you won't... It is Kurdish chewing gum! A group walk in the parks of Erbil, which are surely better in summer time. There was another, not essential, but still important, prejudgement which I felt sorry to dismantle. I was hoping to trick the European winter once again, but I found out that the temperature in Erbil was lower than in many parts of the old Continent! But, as I mentioned before, I did my homework: I knew it was going to be cold, so I was ready;) The Kasparov family: "you are my queen" - say the eyes of Sergey! My first morning walk on the local streets was enough to make all the fears vanish and prove in the most concrete and suggestive way that within the clearly marked territory controlled by the Kurdish Regional Government and guarded by the Kurdish Security Forces life was absolutely safe. Well, it would be better not to say 100% safe, things might happen to you, such as a slip on the stairs, but you are not safe from it in day by day European life, either; at least here you would get a multilingual warning, including highly non-conformist English! Adriana Nikolova and Sarunas Sulskis A meal for...one! Kind of intimidating if you ask me! Good luck Georgi Zhivkov (our International Arbiter from Bulgaria), in finishing that! Everyone was surprised by the quality and the size of the plates...here he is with Adriana Nikolova and one of the organizers from the Khanzad Chess Club - Bakhtyar. To some visitors the numerous police patrols, military uniforms, safety control points at the entrance in the very modern shopping malls and other buildings or simply on the streets, would create an undefined feeling of danger. Security measures are necessary, though, in the surrounding generalized tragedy. And the result is outstanding! As a European woman I didn’t feel any shadow of danger, harassing or insecurity! On the contrary, I would define the place as...‘boringly’ safe!! We have been spoiled in Kurdistan... For the first time in my life I felt that I didn’t need to worry whether I forgot my purse open. The species of pick-pockets and thieves seem to have been exterminated here. Big bulks of money (summing up to the equivalent of more 100.000 Euros) can be seen on tables placed in the bazaars or straight on the street. It is also quite common that the owner of these improvised exchange offices leaves the money unguarded while taking a tea break in the neighbourhood. Would you try such an experiment in any of the European capitals?! Fellow globetrotter Sergey Tiviakov is not shy to get what is his My scarf didn't serve any religious purposes, it was simply very cold, despite the delusive sun. Interesting architecture for a church, Babylonian style. In the foreground Dutch players Sergey Tiviakov and Alina l'Ami A beautiful mosque, which I didn't have time to visit. But I promised to return! The next part of the report will focus on the tournament and will include many more experiences by this globetrotter in Iraq! Official website Results Alina L'Ami Feedback and mail to our news service Please use this account if you want to contribute to or comment on our news page service ==================== LBO, allow me to take the opportunity whilst you are here to refocus on matters more to hand: 1. Do you know if TK reviewed the Edison note before it was published? 2. Do you conisder the Edison note to broadly be in line with GKP's current outlook, as to plateau targets, likely oil price for sales, the amount of and source of funds required for 2014 etc? 3. Why was the Edison note timed for release just before the High Court judgment? s_k =========== miny, You are right in saying that Todd's first priority is to make himself richer. But, what if he realises that £8 / share is fantasy-land for current (rather than future) valuation purposes. After all, that is the message coming out through Edison. And what if he realises that he is fairly close to the door. Remember, shareholders managed to secure the exit of under-performing directors in the run up to / at the last two agms. No guesses as to whose head is on the block next as some have suggested; whether you believe such an act to be just is irrelevant, the issue is whether such a move is likely. What options does Todd then have? The long term one of awaiting SH7, pipeline etc. is just a pipe dream for him at the moment, is it not? This is just too far away and current funding will not stretch long enough to get there. The short term options are to secure a deal that shareholders will accept, very soon. But is such a deal, one acceptable to shareholders, likely to come to fruition in the next very few weeks? Possible, but I am doubtful and would not rely upon such a possibility. Absent this, I suspect that Hub is right, namely that funding may come with the price tag of Todd's head if dilutative (whether immediately or by conversion), as an egm will be required. What then for Todd? Go quickly / quietly, or draw things out / go noisily? And what are the consequences thereafter of Todd going? These are to me the questions that I am asking. ============== I have just re-watched Ewen’s presentation from the Investor day and especially the section from about 2 mins 55 seconds in for the following 2 minutes or so. In it, EA actually refers to his projection of an “annualised average of 8500 barrels per day from Shaikan” explaining that this would be the average figure taken across the whole year. He then proceeds to describe how this will be achieved, citing 5000 bpd in July, 10000 bpd in August and increasing to the targeted 20000 bpd for PF-1 in October, in effect increasing production by 5000 bpd every month… and then carrying on the same way with PF-2. While his commentary is slightly inaccurate in places, for example in that he then anticipates 40000 bpd at the start of 2014 (should be 35000), it is very clear to me that GKP’s target is to add 5000 bpd of production each month until they to get to the proposed 40000 bpd for PF-1 and PF-2, and use the constantly increasing revenue stream to then continue to grow production at much the same rate thereafter. In essence, he was saying that production in H2 2013 was projected to be:- July: 5,000 bpd (ie 150,000 barrels produced) August: 10,000 bpd (i.e 300,000 barrels produced) September: 15,000 bpd (i.e 450,000 barrels produced October: 20,000 bpd (i.e. 600,000 barrels produced) November: 25,000 bpd (i.e 750,000 barrels produced) December: 30,000 bpd (i.e 900,000 barrels produced) The projected total for H2 2013 was therefore 3,150,000 barrels = 525,000 barrels per month = or about 17,000 barrels bpd… or, on an annualised basis, 8500 bpd. As Finance Director, EA would simply have provided ‘projected’ figures based on the information available to him at the time, and no doubt assuming the anticipated levels of production contained in the Shaikan FDP. Whether those projections have actually been met or there have been any operational delays or restrictions caused by the ongoing political saga, I have no idea. But I see absolutely no reason for anyone to doubt that the ‘plan’ was very reasonable, and clearly outlined by EA at the Investor day. To me, his figures make total sense. And yes, it would have been good from the point of view of investor reassurance for us to have seen an RNS by now detailing exactly how GKP is doing in respect of those projections. But it is perhaps worth noting that the Investor Day was on 4 July 2013 and we should be receiving the latest operational update together with the interim results on Thursday 19th September, not much more than 2 months later. Not really all that long to wait, I reckon, especially when you think how long it took to finally get rid of Excalibur! While I understand that DNO provide MONTHLY updates on their levels of production in Kurdistan, I am not so sure that the same applies across the board of Kurdish operators. So, I would be inclined to give GKP the benefit of the doubt, especially as they now have a large quota of NEDs to ensure that they adhere fully to industry standards, whatever they might be! How frequently, for example, does Genel update their shareholders on their production levels in Kurdistan? My impression is that their operational updates have never been particularly frequent, and I don’t believe there are too many people complaining. Anyway, Thursday’s update should certainly be very interesting in many ways, and I rather wonder if today’s rise was partly in anticipation of positive news. We will see. AIMHO and please DYOR GLA, scaramouche ==========

Western oilmen in Iraq brace for Syria backlash

Nothing broken, but I must disagree, at the very least, with the following: 1. There are around 1bn shares in issue when fully diluted inc conversion of bonds, not 876m. The bond holders can force conversion on takeover. 2. Do you really expect a recovery rate of 35% within the 25+5 year PSCs?? Even on Shaikan this is unrealistic assuming that currently stated targets are met. Hitting 400k bopd within 9 years with no decline rate thereafter will only get you 27% (450k with no decline rate is 31%) and even my alternatives make assumptions that we PIs cannot make yet. Why not just start with 20% and move it up as and when proven? On AB and SA, I would say that 35% is likely to be wildly inaccurate at this stage, as the recovery factor is totally unproven and the wells in these fields are not producing good volumes at the moment. 3. You use a discount rate that appears to be around 8%. In my view, anything under 10% is unrealistic to 'expect' at present. It is possible, but not something I would 'assume'. Even 10% is not a conservative view, though it is one I would accept as fair. GKP are funding Shaikan at a coupon rate of up to 6.5% which is then dilutable in addition. You leave no room in your discount factor for risk etc. 4. It is too early to place significant value on the gas. 5. One could also question your assumption of $100 / bbl. Brent has averaged $105 or so over the last 3 years. Most people expect a discount of $10-$20 on Brent for Shaikan's heavy oil. So I would use no more than $90 at present. Yes, oil may go up, but you make no equivalent accommodation for inflation in your discount factor. Yes, SH7 may change matters, but that is the possible future and is totally unquantifiable at the moment. The point that I am trying to make, is that, in my view, some of your assumptions are incorrect and some are at the very top end of expectations even if you are right. GKP may well be presented with a fait accompli(An accomplished, presumably irreversible deed or fact. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ) by the KRG. To assume that top dollar and maximum assumptions will be paid is just not viable to assume at present. We cannot even say that there will even be an auction / fair price paid at the moment. There might be. But we cannot assume it and GKP are not in a position of strength. Thanks all for the responses. Welshki's questions of me seem to be popular ones judging by the number of tick ups, so here is my response to question about why Dalesman's valuation is so different to my range - although the very top end of my range is not far off his. I only draw 3 differences to your attention there are many more. 1. Dalesman's OIP on his spreadsheet screenshot for Shaikan has 18.7bn barrels yet the P50 is 13.7bn barrels and the P10 is 15bn barrels. 18.7bn barrels may (or may not) be possible in the future, however it is does not reflect what GKP have proven as of today. Yes there might be 37% more oil found at Shaikan. But then again there might not be. And even if it is, what can be recovered in the license period? I prefer to count only the chickens that have hatched and that I can fit into my bag, to take them away. 2. Dalesman's discount rate is 6.5%, yet he acknowledges that "The Americans [use] upwards of 10%. This is the way they value Oil Cos". I think there is a strong possibility of the buyer of Shaikan being American. So the base case should surely be 10% not 6.5%? I add that the discount rate has the most severe of all the variables upon the end result. 3. Dalesman's screenshot shows 4.46bn boe being recovered from Shaikan (or 3.98bn barrels excluding gas). This is equivalent to: (a) a 32% recovery rate of the current P50 OIP in just 30 years and is far greater than that cumulatively thereafter (though Dalesman uses a different OIP as you know, which would lower the recovery rate); or (b) production of 480k bopd from Year 10 with no decline rate even by the end of the 30 year PSC period. Though not impossible, this is totally unproven. It also far exceeds all seven possible scenarios set out in the paid for by GKP Edison note, which vary from 2.48bn - 3.30bn bbls recovered in the PSC period. In conclusion, the point that I made in my post yesterday remains. One can come up with a whole host of valuations for Shaikan. But I think that range starts far, far lower than Dalesman's valuation, which is in my view is not conservative. In addition, I prefer to assess the value of Shaikan based upon what can be shown to be likely recovered (on present information) during the PSC term. sicilian_kan ===== Hi JD, thanks for your questions. My NAV spreadsheet was designed to see what GKP would extract during the PSC term and to value it on a discounted basis. What GKP can extract during the finite PSC period is to me the most important factor. What is left over at the end of the PSC GKP will not get. The purpose of the OIP figure in the spreadsheet is that it shows you in cell C33 what % you have recovered of the OIP during the PSC period. It is effectively a cross-referencer to make sure that one does not put in figures that are unrealistic or over ambitious. I.e. if your inputs showed a recovery rate of 40% during the 30 year PSC term, that might ring alarm bells. Of course if the OIP increases due to SH7 or any other drilling, just input a higher recoverable figure or a longer plateau period and bump up the OIP figure so the recovery % during the PSC term is reduced accordingly. But it is the bopd produced, the plateau length and the decline period, not the OIP, that lead directly to the true value of the PSC. Plus, if the OIP were to be the controller, not the above. Then there would have to be a formula to automatically adjust the bopd produced, the plateau length, the decline rate etc. This would be both questionable in terms of accuracy and also arbitrary. Hope this makes things clearer. sicilian_kan === It's fair to say that there are a few stocks out there that carry less political/regional risk and similar upside potential to GKP in terms of a 2, 3, 4, or 5 bagger. After years of a sector slump - many of the miners and commodity small caps are beginning to spring into life with the usual bonkers 50%+ or 120% one day rises. But these stocks stand as much chance as rising 150% as they do falling the same amount a week later. Of course there are others which are not so volatile but you get the idea. As for GKP - against a sector slump, the stock is actually trading higher than many of it's peers on a YoY basis. There is no harm in lowering expectations - as it bodes well for surprises. But you have to remember that the market was fooled by a £8 offer via Exxon at a time when the sp was sub 200p. At a time when the cc was still at large. And at a time when FDP was a year away etc etc. In my experience - you can't con a con artist. So somewhere in that dreamy 2012 period - the city and everyone else involved were convinced an £8 offer was possible. And that's your benchmark imho. Forget your calcs and assumptions. Especially if you are gonna throw in AB, SA and BB for the next man. I mean - that's just stoopid. Then there's SH-7. You can't just step over that one without realising the significance. Finally - I think in 15 years time the oil price is likely to be nearer $150pb and that's cheap. Opec have a habit of making sure the stuff sells at a decent price these days. The dummy run has been done already. It got the sp to 450p+ and the rumour was a soft one. Should such a rumour occur today - then I think most would give it more creditability. And with that, 450p+ could be surpassed with ease. That said - there comes a point when a 45 bagger for some becomes a 2 or 3 bagger for others. And at 450p a share - there will be some investors that will fancy their chances at finding another 2 bagger or 3 bagger out there rather than pin the hopes on a £10 per share GKP exit. But that's in the future and I guess we can all take a view at the next rumour when it arrives and judge it for what it is. Markets are notoriously fickle and once one uncertainty is removed - they tend to create or turn to another one. Due to the CC, shareholders have been kept in the dark on many matters including the finer details on the FDP. Investors have to realise that although the oil reserves are likely to be large (as we know) it's the production and exporting of that oil that matters most. DNO and GENEL are both near highs because the 'business model' of producing oil and getting paid for it - is working. GKP however, are yet to provide any detail on how they plan to fund the Shaikan development in a way that covers all bases and eventualities. You can't just rely on cash flow from production to develop the field. What happens if Erbil/Baghdad continue to fail on agreeing exports / deals etc? The ops update (next thursday) is much awaited but so are the numbers on the interims (up to July 31st). These numbers wil show the cash burn and what's left in the kitty. GKP management team know that they will need to have a firm guide / plan in place to reveal to all regarding the questions on funding/cash flow etc. It's more than possible that GKP could announce on thursday 3 things or 4 things. 1. Interims 2. Ops update 3. AB sale or 4. More CB's issued. 5. Possible Share placing The latter could be small but depending on price might certainly help out a few of the CB hedges assuming they wish to close out etc. Tepid= 1. Moderately warm; lukewarm. 2. Lacking in emotional warmth or enthusiasm; halfhearted: There are no more excuses going forward from here on. No more news black outs or CC's to blame for tepid shareholder coms. As many know with explorers, it's a constant battle of operations vs funding and it usually springs into the markets focus on an annual basis. Historically GKP have funded around the Q3 period in most cases. And before someone says something stoopid like 'Ewan said that there would be no more dilution' blah blah blah etc may I remind people of the Sept interims in 2011 (or was it 2010) when management also said that they did not plan any placings and then 2 weeks later we had one at 140p lol! It's managements perogative to change their minds and what they say one day may indeed be true - but events often change ones views and in the oil industry if you want something, then you best act like you don't need it, if you want to get a decent price. I'm looking forward to hearing GKP's plans for the next 12 months which should update on last years plans. I think next thursday could be a busy day on the BB. It's all go now. HUB All the best HUB === I've read lots of comments here about why the price hasn't soared on this news. The first point that I wish to make is the share price HAS soared on this news. The sp has gone from sub £1.30 to £2.40 in under three months. Largely, but not entirely, due to two things. (1) An improvement in CG; and (2) Anticipation of the impending judgment in the court case. That is around a 90% increase on the back of these two events. Now I have yet to meet a GKP shareholder who thought that Excalibur would win. So why did people expect a massive rise? Victory was already priced in was it not? There was also a Brucie bonus of 175p to 240p, starting just 5 trading days before the court case result, or an increase of 37%. In addition, look at the fall on the news of the Excalibur suit however many years ago. Ignore the noise intra day. The close the day before was 184.5p. The close after the news broke and before people had identified all the weaknesses of the Excalibur case was 167.5p. A fall of just 9% being factored into the share price at the time. And the sp only closed below that price over a month later. It just is not the case that a 50% rise was needed to make up for the fall. The second point that I wish to make is to ask you all to assess the current NAV of Shaikan. I put up here my NAV calculator some time ago. I can come up with two very different scenarios. I do not suggest either are right. They are just at different ends of the spectrum: Scenario A - Oil Price $90 Average Oil Price Increase 2% Years to Plateau 8 Plateau Level 400,000 Plateau Length 9 (i.e. no decline until Year 17) Decline Rate 5% OiP 13.5bn Discount Rate 10% = Recovery during the lifetime of the PSC = 3.2 bn barrels or a respectable 23.91% Still producing 195k bopd after 30 year PSC ended so that recovery rate will rise over the life of the field. NAV = £2.90 per share Scenario B - Oil Price $100 Average Oil Price Increase 3% Years to Plateau 10 Plateau Level 500,000 Plateau Length 10 (i.e. no decline until Year 20) Decline Rate 5% OiP 13.5bn Discount Rate 6% = Recovery during the lifetime of the PSC = 4.1 bn barrels or 30.52% Still producing 284k bopd after 30 year PSC ended NAV = £7.34 per share I do not think this latter scenario realistic at present as this has not been proven up. But let's assume it to be the case. Even this scenario is highly sensitive to the oil price and the discount rate. - Switch the annual oil price increase to 2% from 3% and £7.34 NAV falls to £6.44. - Much more importantly, switch the discount rate from 6% to 10% and the £6.44 NAV falls to £3.76 per share. Then we have to leave something in for the next man. AB, SA, BB and SH7 at present would suffice. Plus we must bear in mind that the politics is not yet sorted and that GKP has not yet proven itself to be able to produce on time or on target. We must also bear in mind that there is a possibility left open of a sale of Shaikan rather than GKP, which brings an extra level of risk assessment in as that would bring in a lower price for Shaikan (as something would need to be built in for the next man beyond SH7 and some flanks). In addition, some of those monies will be re-invested in other GKP projects and will not hit shareholders pockets directly and of those that do, receiving a dividend will not bump up the sp as much as sale for tax reasons . You can probably see where I am heading. It is this. The share price at the moment, in my view, 'more than fairly' reflects the current state of play at GKP, taking conservative (and not top end) figures as the basis of my calculations. Unfortunately for me, it has taken me a long time to realise this. Knowing what I do now, I probably would still have got caught up in the bid hype of last year, but I equally now know that I would have sold on the way down, as many wiser than me did. YES, there is huge potential here. YES, there may be a takeover of a sizeable amount, significantly in excess of where we are now. BUT, I no longer believe that the bid will likely be in the region of £8, even if that is possible. I also believe that shareholders may price themselves out of a takeover and that GKP will not get to its targets on time; OR that shareholders will end up disappointed by the end price (even if higher than now). I also believe that GKP is in a difficult position with auctioning as KRG national interests can trump any sale attempt by GKP in the PSC. In short, I don't think that the court case resolution has done anything to suggest that the status quo (which I have not long realised) has changed - i.e. anything below £1.50 is likely to be a good buy, anything between £1.50 and £2.00 has a good chance of being a good buy at some point, and anything over £2 carries significant risk. The resolution of the politics / completion and activation of the pipeline may change this, but STEAM has been delayed so I do not expect imminent progress on this front, even though I expect resolution, one way or another, in due course. Even so, if I can still get £2.90 to £7.44 on my NAV calculator for a range of variables on Shaikan, then EVEN IF the politics ARE resolved I'm not going to go much higher than £2 for my buys in order to avoid putting my capital at risk. There are many other shares with in my view lower downsides than GKP's but still with 1-5 bagger potential. Each to their own. I've staked out my views here now. I wish all holders well and for a stonkingly big takeover. I fully expect the responses to range from the rational and intelligent to the delusional and ignorant. But nevertheless, all views are welcome. I would like to be persuaded to change my mind. My NAV spreadsheet was designed to see what GKP would extract during the PSC term and to value it on a discounted basis. What GKP can extract during the finite PSC period is to me the most important factor. What is left over at the end of the PSC GKP will not get. ============ Anyone that thought that these were going to go up, stay up, and not come back a bit, obviously don't know GKP very well. We are one of the most popular shares with PI's, and we are on AIM. Who can blame traders or MM's or large investors or anyone else from making money either short or long? That is the name of the game. I am pretty disappointed that the SP is where it is, as I'm sure most others are, BUT, given what could have happened yesterday, I am delighted that we are now free from this "vexatious" claim. The case against GKP did not appear to have any merit to me - I am no expert, so why would anyone put hard cash and reputations at stake to fund it in the first place? Possibly because of the enormous amount of oil, and the even greater ability to make a serious amount of cash by bringing this case in the first place. Anyway, I am still happy to be invested here, and I am also sure that we will be getting played like this when we hit £3, £4, £5 and beyond. Thats my take on it anyway. Good luck! ======== 'No one is a victim, everyone joins this game willingly and not knowing the players, the rules or the consequences is a choice not some grand scheme or great conspiracy.' ------- Not quite correct. Only since 2008 have people, and I mean your ordinary Joe Bloggs, come to some realisation of just how utterly corrupt our financial system had become. From high street banks to financial 'advisors' to hedge funds to merchant banks - from top to bottom the entire pyramid had become so infected with the disease of blind greed that reality - the world outside the bubble - had become an irritating irrelevance. Pauperisationpauperisation - the act of making someone poor impoverishment, pauperization Swine 1. Any of various omnivorous, even-toed ungulates of the family Suidae, including pigs, hogs, and boars, having a stout body with thick skin, a short neck, and a movable snout. 2. A person regarded as brutish or contemptible. SQUID=QUID (Economics, Accounting & Finance / Currencies) Brit slang a pound sterling for·lorn (fr-lôrn, fôr-) adj. 1. a. Appearing sad or lonely because deserted or abandoned. b. Forsaken or deprived: forlorn of all hope. 2. Wretched or pitiful in appearance or condition: forlorn roadside shacks. 3. Nearly hopeless; desperate. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The result was the collapse of traditional capitalism and the pauperisation of millions for the betterment of the few. Governments the world over used taxes, money we pay for the upkeep of services and education, to rescue overpaid, inept swine from the consequences of their own excesses. Nations have had to divert tens of billions from worthwhile services to save a financial system doomed to self-destruction as a result of incompetence, carelessness and ignorance. An integral part of this was what we call 'the markets', in reality a casino where mugs had their pockets picked by the House Bouncers and handed over to The Boss. The poster boy for the Kings of Greed were Goldman Sachs, an institution in New York that has caused more misery around the planet than all the burglars in the world combined. The legendary 'Vampire Squid' leaves a trail of toxic slime in its wake that is unmatched by any similar financial institution. It is, in every sense of the term, a monument to greed. It's into this rigged casino that so many hapless investors wander with their hard-earned money in the hope of bettering the future for their families and themselves. In most cases it's a forlorn hope since the result of their investment has largely already been pre-determined by the House. And the House never loses. What the Bible Says About Money (Shocking) Friday, 13 Sep 2013 12:09 PM Most people know Sean Hyman from his regular appearances on Fox Business, CNBC, and Bloomberg Television, but what they don’t know is that Sean is a former pastor, and that his secret to investing is woven within the Bible. Perhaps that can explain why, despite his uncanny ability to predict precise moves in the stock market, Sean is often laughed at for his unique stance on investing. For example . . . a few months ago Sean appeared on Bloomberg Television. At that time, Best Buy (BBY) was dropping to all-time lows of $16 a share. Sean predicted the stock could go down to $11 a share, and would then quickly rebound to $25 per share, and after that would rally to $40 per share over the next year. Another commentator on the show actually mocked Sean for his stance, saying “$40 on Best Buy? If that’s the case Apple (AAPL) is going to $1,500. That’s the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard!” (Editor’s Note: At the time, Apple was trading at $650 per share). Within a few weeks, Sean would receive the last laugh. Best Buy dropped down to $11.20 a share and has since rebounded to $30 a share, continuing its path to $40 . . . exactly as Sean predicted. (Ironically, Apple has dropped down to about $400 per share). During a recent private dinner with Sean, once he’d blessed the food, I wasted no time asking him what his secret is for investing so successfully. I expected Sean to say that it was his years of experience at Charles Schwab or perhaps one of the complicated algorithms he uses for timing the stock market. So when Sean responded that his secret to investing was the Bible, I was thoroughly shocked. Yes, I knew Sean was a Christian (anyone who spends more than 1 minute with him will pick that up!). However, people usually keep their faith separate from things like . . . investing. But not Sean. For Sean, the Bible is his FOUNDATION for investing. He explained to me how there is actually a “Biblical Money Code” woven into Scripture. Sean says it is this Biblical Money Code that took him from making a mere $15,000 a year to now giving away up to $50,000 a year. Sean also credits this code with helping him turn his father’s $40,000 retirement account into $396,000. Certain investment titans, Sean says, such as Warren Buffett and John Templeton, have already used this code to amass billions. What Sean had to say impressed me so much that I asked him to put a presentation together that reveals how anyone could use this “Biblical Money Code.” (Click here to watch it now) I’ve personally watched this presentation several times and it is already spreading virally. During the video, Sean uses the teachings of King Solomon, Jesus of Nazareth, and the Apostle Paul to show how anyone can get out of debt . . . make sound investments . . . and morally build substantial wealth. Sean even reveals a “debilitating ‘financial sin’ that blinds many . . . and could be costing you up to 41% of your life savings at this very moment.” What’s so deceiving about this sin is how innocent and safe it appears at first. And at the end, he finishes up with his “12-12-12 plan for investing.” This is a simple step-by-step plan to go from being a saver, to an investor, to a philanthropist. Click Here to Watch Sean’s Presentation, ‘The Biblical Money Code’ Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNewsIntl/Financial-bible-Hyman/2013/08/06/id/519032?promo_code=146F3-1&utm_source=taboola#ixzz2essHkAHX Urgent: Should Obamacare Be Repealed? Vote Here Now! ========== Wed, Sep 11 09:50 AM EDT image By Isabel Coles and Peg Mackey ARBIL, Iraq/LONDON (Reuters) - Sheltering in a bomb-proof safe room in a heavily-fortified office in Baghdad is the new reality for a senior Western oil executive who runs one of Iraq's oilfield mega-projects. Intensifying violence and car bombs have already forced him to restrict his movements and now, security experts say, he is under even closer watch from Shi'ite militias that may hit out at Western targets if Washington attacks neighboring Syria. "Every time there's a car bomb, we go into lock down mode," he said. The Shi'ite groups, closely linked to Iran, are also tracking his colleagues working 500 km away in the giant southern oilfields clustered near Basra - a Shi'ite-dominated city that Iraqi officials say is a no-go zone for Western oilmen. "The risk is of being in the wrong place at the wrong time," said a senior oil industry source. So far, turmoil in Iraq has not hit the operations of international oil companies, or deterred them from boosting output and turning Iraq into OPEC's second-biggest producer. But Baghdad's oil revival has stalled due to bottlenecks at ports, pipelines and the customs office. "Baghdad will make every effort to contain the fallout, but if we were to lose anyone, there would be huge pressure to withdraw - and we don't want to do that." An Iraqi Shi'ite militia group has threatened to attack U.S. interests in Iraq and the region if Washington strikes Syria, whose President Bashar al-Assad is backed by Tehran. Long accustomed to hostile environments, foreign executives from BP, ExxonMobil, Eni, Total and Royal Dutch Shell do not scare easily. But Iraqi security sources say Exxon, particularly at risk because as an American firm, is taking no chances, re-basing most of its workforce from the southern West Qurna-1 oilfield project to Dubai until tensions ease. "Exxon has zero-tolerance," said a source at a security company operating in Iraq. "Exxon has pulled out just about everyone." The company declined to comment. Despite the possibility of military action against Syria still alive, top executives visit Iraq. Paolo Scaroni, CEO of Italy's Eni, was in Baghdad at the start of the month - and senior management is staying put in the Iraqi capital. "The others are reviewing measures and emergency response plans, but there are no plans to evacuate," said a Western diplomat. ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONS Foreign oil companies are likely to take their cue from diplomatic staff, say security experts. Several hundred Western oilmen are estimated to be rotating in and out of the country, with most at the southern oilfields and only a handful in Baghdad, say industry sources. While Washington is not actively removing people from its embassy, it is not allowing those away on annual leave to return. It has also issued staff with respirators and gas masks. "We've told our clients to take additional precautions: limit your activities, don't take people in and out of the country, keep them off the roads and do everything you can to limit your exposure," said the security company source. Since 2010, international oil companies have been tapping the southern oilfields, raising output by 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 3 million bpd. Infrastructure and logistical snags, rather than security issues, have frustrated their progress this year. U.S. oil firms have a fairly small footprint in southern Iraq compared with Chinese, Russian and British firms. Exxon is in charge at West Qurna-1, and Occidental has a small stake in the neighboring Zubair oilfield, run by ENI. Other mega-projects in the predominantly Shi'ite and relatively peaceful south are Iraq's biggest producer Rumaila - run by BP; Majnoon - led by Shell; Halfaya - operated by China National Petroleum Corp; and West Qurna-2, run by Russia's Lukoil. But the proximity of these fields to Iran make them vulnerable in the event of a retaliatory attack, security analysts say. Security experts do not expect militants to inflict any lasting damage on Iraq's oil infrastructure, which has helped generate nearly $60 billion this year. And the remote desert camps at the tightly-guarded oilfields offer expatriates a relatively high level of protection. Most of the bases have areas with hardened roofs to guard against missile attacks. Nonetheless, Western executives in the area have been warned by Iraq's South Oil Co (SOC), which oversees operations around Basra, to restrict their movements. "They'll throw rockets, they'll throw mortars - a few bombs," said the security source. "It's going to be more of a symbolic attack." (Editing by William Hardy) ============== Iraq signs deal with BP to revive northern Kirkuk oilfield Wed, Sep 11 07:37 AM EDT By Meeyoung Cho and Peg Mackey SEOUL/LONDON (Reuters) - Baghdad signed a deal in early September for BP (BP.L) to revive Iraq's northern Kirkuk oilfield, Oil Minister Abdul Kareem Luaibi said on Wednesday, confirming a plan that Kurdistan has already rejected as illegal. The agreement allows the British oil major - which already operates Iraq's biggest oilfield, Rumaila - to negotiate access to significant reserves in the north in return for helping Baghdad arrest a huge decline in output from Kirkuk. "We signed a letter of intent about 10 days ago," Luaibi told Reuters on the sidelines of an energy ministers' meeting in Korea. Reuters reported at the end of August that BP would work on the Baghdad-administered side of the border with Kurdistan, while the Iraqi Kurdish KAR group is developing a formation under the control of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). "We are pleased with this agreement," a BP spokesman said. The deal faces opposition from the KRG, however, which rejected the planned pact as illegal when Baghdad revealed the preliminary arrangement with BP in January. "The KRG's position on this issue remains unchanged," a spokesman from the KRG's Ministry of Natural Resources said on Wednesday in response to the BP deal. "No company will be permitted to work in any part of the disputed territories including Kirkuk without formal approval and involvement of the KRG." Re-developing Kirkuk is part of a wider push by Baghdad to rescue Iraq's oil sector from decades of war and neglect. Oil provides the lion's share of Iraq's government revenues and foreign exchange earnings and the authorities have set a production target of 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd) for end-2013. The increasingly influential OPEC member is currently producing 3.25 million bpd, Luaibi told reporters ahead of an Asian oil ministers meeting in Seoul. Iraq hopes to add 175,000 bpd of capacity later this month with the start up of the Royal Dutch Shell-operated Majnoon field. Luaibi said Majnoon was expected to start a 10-day test production phase on September 20, after which the field was expected to ramp up towards full production. Work since 2010 at Iraq's southern oilfields by the likes of BP, Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and Eni (ENI.MI) raised output by 600,000 bpd to 2.9 million bpd in 2012, turning Iraq into the world's fastest growing exporter. Iraq is currently exporting 2.5 million bpd, said Luaibi, compared to an average of 2.58 million bpd in August. Commenting on global oil prices, the Iraqi oil minister said about $100 per barrel was fair for consumers. Brent oil was at $111.62 at 1115 GMT. (Additional reporting by Amran Abocar; writing by Daniel Fineren; editing by James Jukwey) ====================

GKP Group Structure (Listing Particulars): TK is surplus to requirements, a drain on the company financially

5. Group Structure The Issuer acts as the holding company of the Group. The Issuer has the following significant subsidiary undertakings: Place of Issued share Incorporation capital and and registered proportion of Name of Subsidiary office Ownership Interest Principal Activity Active Subsidiaries Gulf Keystone Petroleum Great Britain 100% Geological, geophysical and engineering (UK) Limited 16 Berkeley Street £2 (2 £1 Shares) services and administration Mayfair London W1J 8DZ, UK Gulf Keystone Petroleum Bermuda 100% Exploration and evaluation activities International Limited Cumberland House $10,000 9th Floor (10,000 1 Victoria Street $1 Shares) Hamilton HM11 Bermuda A9.6.1 26 Place of Issued share Incorporation capital and and registered proportion of Name of Subsidiary office Ownership Interest Principal Activity Inactive Subsidiaries Gulf Keystone Petroleum Bermuda 100% Exploration and evaluation activities HBH Limited Cumberland House $10,000 9th Floor (10,000 1 Victoria Street $1 Shares) Hamilton HM11 Bermuda Gulf Keystone Petroleum Bermuda 100% Exploration and evaluation activities Numidia Limited Cumberland House $10,000 9th Floor (10,000 1 Victoria Street $1 Shares) Hamilton HM11 Bermuda Shaikan Petroleum Limited Bermuda 100% Exploration and evaluation activities Cumberland House $10,000 9th Floor (10,000 1 Victoria Street $1 Shares) Hamilton HM11 Bermuda In the last financial year (i) Gulf Keystone Petroleum (UK) Limited made a loss of £2,421,750 on ordinary activities before taxation with reserves of £3,862,649; and (ii) Gulf Keystone Petroleum International Limited made a loss of US$2,172,000 on ordinary activities before taxation with accumulated losses of US$6,936,000. None of the Issuer’s other subsidiaries published their own annual accounts in the last financial year. All shares in the Issuer’s subsidiary undertakings are fully paid up. None of the Issuer’s subsidiary undertakings has paid a dividend to the Issuer in the course of the last financial year. All business operations of the Issuer are carried out by the Issuer’s subsidiaries. Therefore, the profit of the Issuer makes it dependent on the results of operations of the Issuer’s subsidiaries. The Issuer shows the value of Shares held in its subsidiaries on a historical costs basis in its accounts. 6. Litigation Save as disclosed in this paragraph 6, there are no governmental, legal or arbitration proceedings (including any such proceedings which are pending threatened of which the Issuer is aware) which may have, or have had during the 12 months prior to the date of this document, a significant effect on the Issuer and/or the Group’s financial position or profitability. The Group is currently subject to outstanding litigation brought by Excalibur which is asserting certain contractual and non-contractual claims arising from the Collaboration Agreement and claiming entitlement to an interest of up to 30 per cent. in the Kurdistan Blocks. The allegations and claims made by Excalibur are being vigorously disputed by the Group and are being contested through the due process of law; Excalibur’s Claims will be determined by the English Commercial Court at the end of a trial that commenced in London on 8 October 2012. It is anticipated that the Excalibur Litigation will end in early 2013, and judgement will be given in July or October 2013. A9.11.5 A9.6.2 27 Factual Summary In December 2005 an intermediary on behalf of Excalibur contacted representatives of the Group to introduce Excalibur’s idea to apply for exploration and development licences in Kurdistan during the period of reconstruction following the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime. As a result, in February 2006 Excalibur entered into the Collaboration Agreement with Texas, a company whose operations and business has at all material times been oil and gas operations in the United States of America established and owned, in part, by Mr Todd Kozel, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the Issuer. Texas is a related party of the Issuer by virtue of Mr Todd Kozel’s shareholding in and directorship of Texas. The Collaboration Agreement was for a term of two years expiring in February 2008 and set out the terms upon which Excalibur and Texas would seek petroleum exploration Concessions in Kurdistan. The Collaboration Agreement was not entered into with any member of the Group but provided that the Issuer may take an assignment of part (or with the consent of Excalibur all) of Texas’ interest in the Collaboration Agreement, upon executing a Deed of Adherence with Excalibur and Texas. Initially, the Issuer did not wish to take on the commitments of exploration and development in Kurdistan but contemplated that it might wish to do so at a later stage. Mr Todd Kozel disclosed his interest in Texas in relation to the subject matter of the Collaboration Agreement and the Issuer and authorised Mr Kozel to pursue the opportunity on behalf of Texas. When the Issuer asked Excalibur to consent to an assignment of the Collaboration Agreement from Texas in April 2007, Excalibur refused to do so as the Issuer had announced that it was in takeover talks with RAK Petroleum (“RAK”) at the time. After the RAK discussions ended, the Issuer did not request and Excalibur did not consent to the Issuer becoming a party to the Collaboration Agreement. In August 2007 the KRG introduced the Kurdistan Oil and Gas Law which provided that all concessions for petroleum exploration in Kurdistan shall be governed by a PSC approved by the Minister. Excalibur agreed and the Minister made it clear that Excalibur would not be approved as a party to the PSC. The Minister also required that a PSC would only be granted to the Issuer if it and Texas agreed to enter into a PSC together with MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas Plc (“MOL”). GKPI, Texas and Kalegran Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of MOL, entered into the Shaikan PSC with the KRG on 6 November 2007, with Excalibur’s knowledge and consent. GKPI’s interest in the Shaikan PSC was 75 per cent, Kalegran’s interest was 20 per cent. and Texas agreed to take, as required by the Minister, 5 per cent. on the basis that GKPI would meet all of Texas’ obligations arising in respect of the 5 per cent. interest and take an assignment of it if Texas did not within two years exercise an option and take on and discharge in full liability for all sums incurred and payable thereafter in respect of the Shaikan PSC. The sum of US$25 million became payable to the KRG within 30 days of signature of the Shaikan PSC. In return for agreeing that Kalegran should have a 20 per cent. share in the Shaikan PSC, MOL agreed that GKPI should have a 20 per cent. share in the Akri-Bijeel PSC, granted by the KRG to Kalegran on 6 November 2007. US$25 million also became payable to the KRG under the Akri-Bijeel PSC. After the Shaikan PSC had been signed, Excalibur was offered an opportunity to farm-in on the same terms, and to take an assignment of a proportionate share of the Shaikan PSC upon obtaining approval from the other parties to the Shaikan PSC, and Excalibur obtaining by way of funding the means to satisfy the financial obligations arising under the Shaikan PSC. Confirmation from the Minister that Excalibur was eligible to enter into a PSC was not sought or obtained by Excalibur. Excalibur made it clear that it was unable to raise funds and had no other means to discharge the financial obligations arising under the Shaikan PSC. Discussions with Excalibur were terminated in December 2007. The sums due to the KRG upon signature of the Shaikan PSC and the Akri-Bijeel PSC were duly paid by the Issuer and MOL. In July 2009, GKPI entered into the Sheikh Adi PSC with the KRG. In July 2009 GKPI also took an assignment of an interest in a PSC made between Genel and the KRG in respect of the Ber Bahr Block. 28 Procedural History In December 2010, Excalibur commenced an arbitration in New York City and also issued the proceedings in the Commercial Court in London, and without prior notice to the Group or to Texas applied for a worldwide freezing injunction in respect of all of the Group’s assets, initially without limit, but subsequently limited to US$500 million. The Commercial Court declined Excalibur’s application without hearing Texas or the Group. In April 2011, the Commercial Court granted the Group an injunction restraining Excalibur from proceeding with the arbitration in New York pending a trial in London of the issue whether the Issuer was a party to the Collaboration Agreement. In July 2011, Excalibur abandoned the New York arbitration and agreed that all issues against all parties should be determined by the Commercial Court in London. On 14 March 2012, the court ordered Excalibur provide security for the Group’s costs in the sum of £6 million and for Texas in the sum of £3.5 million, which sums have been paid into court. Excalibur’s Claims Excalibur asserts it has contractual claims under the Collaboration Agreement against Texas and the Group. In addition, or in the alternative to the contractual claims, Excalibur pursue against Texas and the Group various non contractual or tortious claims advanced under English law and New York law based on allegations of breach of the Collaboration Agreement; breach of fiduciary duty, breach of other duties said to be owed at common law under New York and/or English law, fraudulent misrepresentation, fraud by concealment, deceit and conspiracy. Excalibur primarily seeks specific performance of a 30 per cent. participating interest in the Kurdistan Blocks which comprise 99 per cent. of the Group’s overall petroleum operations upon payment of 30 per cent. of the costs incurred by the Group to date and to be incurred in future development of the Kurdistan Blocks. Excalibur claim damages for loss arising from failure to obtain participating interests in the Kurdistan Blocks as an alternative to specific performance. The quantum of Excalibur’s loss (if any) depends on the issues of liability and expert evidence on a variety of topics including valuation and on the Court’s findings on a number of issues during the course of the trial and in the light of any judgment. Excalibur’s valuer has assessed its loss in a maximum sum of US$1.653 billion. The Defendants’ Defences The Group denies that it was a party to the Collaboration Agreement or that it caused Texas to enter into the Shaikan PSC without Excalibur. The Group’s and Texas’ defence against the claim for specific performance and/or damages for breach of the Collaboration Agreement include that Excalibur did not and could not satisfy the statutory requirements relating to eligibility to enter into a PSC under Kurdistan Oil and Gas Law, Excalibur did not seek to be a party to the Shaikan PSC, Excalibur knew and agreed that Texas and GKPI would enter into the Shaikan PSC with Kalegran and had no means of performing the financial obligations that arose under the Shaikan PSC or any joint operating agreement made thereunder. Furthermore, the Group offered Excalibur an opportunity to farm-in to the Shaikan PSC which, if accepted, would have put it in the same position as if it had wished and been offered an opportunity to become a party to the Shaikan PSC. Texas performed the Collaboration Agreement until it became clear and Excalibur agreed that it would not seek to be a party to the grant of the Shaikan PSC to Texas, GKPI and Kalegran. The Group and Texas deny unlawful conduct in respect of the claims for tortious liability and/or in respect of non-contractual claims. Excalibur’s claim against the Group under the Collaboration Agreement faces a further difficulty as no member of the Group is a party to it. The principles of New York law on which Excalibur seek to enforce the Collaboration Agreement against non-signatories are denied by the Group. Both Texas and the Group allege that the Collaboration Agreement was discharged by force majeure, alternatively as a matter of law, as it was impossible to perform after the Kurdistan Oil and Gas Law came into force because Excalibur was not eligible to enter into a PSC and/or as Excalibur abandoned pursuit of the Shaikan PSC under the Collaboration Agreement. Excalibur admits that it knew of and consented to Texas, GKPI and Kalegran entering into the Shaikan PSC without it being a party to it. 29 Excalibur admits that it was incapable of performing the financial obligations arising under the Shaikan PSC or in respect of any PSC. Similarly, Excalibur was ineligible and financially incapable of entering into a Joint Operating Agreement (“JOA”) as provided by the Collaboration Agreement, and as required by the Kurdistan Oil and Gas Law. The Group and Texas rely on expert evidence to show that Excalibur could not have qualified or performed the financial obligations arising under a PSC. Excalibur was offered an opportunity to farm-into the Shaikan PSC on the same terms upon becoming eligible to do so and having the financial capacity to perform the obligations arising thereunder but it did not and could not do so. Had Excalibur been able to do so, and been approved by the other parties, KRG and Kalegran, it would have enjoyed the same benefits as a participating interest in the Shaikan PSC. Excalibur could not do so and thus has suffered no loss from failure to obtain a participating interest under the Collaboration Agreement. No member of the Group is party to and thus not subject to the exclusivity provisions contained in the Collaboration Agreement. Excalibur’s consent to Texas, GKPI and Kalegran entering into the Shaikan PSC is a defence to the claims for damages under the exclusivity provisions of the Collaboration Agreement which, in any event, was discharged by force majeure, operation of law, alternatively abandoned by Excalibur, as stated above. The Sheikh Adi and Ber Bahr PSCs were entered into by GKPI after expiry of the contractual term of the Collaboration Agreement, and Texas and the Group allege were not subject to the exclusivity provisions that apply to transactions introduced by Excalibur and which compete with the transactions contemplated by the Collaboration Agreement. Excalibur alleges that the Sheikh Adi and Ber Bahr Blocks were introduced by its agent Dabin. Texas did not enter into and was not a party to the Akri-Bijeel PSC, the Sheikh Adi PSC or the Ber Bahr PSC. Texas’ and the Group’s defences set out above answer Excalibur’s claims of breach of exclusivity under the Collaboration Agreement. Excalibur’s non-contractual claims are based on duties alleged which Texas and the Group deny are owed to Excalibur or were breached, or in respect of representations claimed to have been made which were not in fact made or were not false or not relied upon by Excalibur, or founded upon alleged agreements or unlawful conduct which Texas and the Group deny. Excalibur ============== Interesting document I came across tucked away on the new Gkp website, It may,have been posted before but if someone wants a quick CC refresher this is a recommended read...! Page 28 - 30 http://www.gulfkeystone.com/media/49871/Gulf-Keystone-Listing-Particulars-8-January.pdf == aktier a great summary But still the CB's flew out of the door. Least a few peeps think he company worth lending $ 300m. Unsecured. As long as they can swap them for shares later @ 273p And our FD showing our defence legal costs as a income cash receipt..........in a shareholder presentation. Another day onwards. - aktier a great summary But still the CB's flew out of the door. Least a few peeps think he company worth lending $ 300m. Unsecured. As long as they can swap them for shares later @ 273p And our FD showing our defence legal costs as a income cash receipt..........in a shareholder presentation. Another day onwards. #1,558 for me #599 for PW = Please take note of what is in the Bond Prospective, which clearly demonstrates why GKP had to go to Court over the matter ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ If Excalibur’s Claims are successful in their entirety, the Group may have to transfer up to 30 per cent. of its interest in the Kurdistan Blocks which comprises 99 per cent. of the Group’s overall petroleum operations or pay damages up to US$1.653 bn and costs to Excalibur. The Group would not be able to fund an award of damages of this size from its existing capital resources and, in the absence of the Group being able to negotiate a method of longterm settlement of such award (which would likely be funded by future cash flow and/or financing), is likely to have an immediate and significant impact on the Group’s ability to fulfil its current and long term capital expenditure plans and could result in a liquidator being appointed by Excalibur which is likely to result in the Group’s interest in the Kurdistan Blocks being revoked by the KRG. In this event the Issuer would not be able to continue to operate as a trading company. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The simple facts are that despite what is worded on Page 30, the Bonds where over subscribed and successfully launched, which is taken as fact by those subscribing to the Bond Issue, as their showing of confidence of the CC outcome. In laymans terms, one doesn't dish out over $200,000,000 to lose every last darn cent. Mikey O/T Published at 12:01AM, August 23 2013 A $400,000 debt to a Colorado dentist and part-time company secretary has prompted the resignation of the chairman of an AIM-quoted oil explorer. Sefton Resources said yesterday that Jim Ellerton, its founding executive chairman, had stepped down temporarily, pending an investigation into allegations made on two internet sites that he used company shares to pay personal debts. The resignation came in light of “certain documentation received - Vertigo, How about a chat, no names, no accusations, just points of view. My personal rationale is that I firmly and deeply believe that GKP's *share price* is now discounted due to TK being at the helm. We needed him in the past, however in my view, you cannot continue to reward someone for past glories and again, in my view, we do not need TK going into the future now that we have a signed off FDP, bonds, SM and the soon to be 6 new NEDs, particularly when we still have JG and the country team. In my view, TK is surplus to requirements, a drain on the company financially, clearly from past behaviours he is a risk to the business and therefore a drain on the share price. As a result, I would like to have him removed in due course. Not bloodily and messily and not in a coup, just within the next 12 months. I've written to II's to express my concerns about TK and naïve that I am, even wrote to one of our past NEDs. Now because in my estimation, the share price is supressed by TK's continued presence and GKP continues to spend more money than is necessary due to his presence, we can get rid of him. What's more as we now have a signed off FDP, we no longer need, in my view, obviously highly risky wheeler dealers in what will soon be a FTSE company. Because I hold these views (and I realise that they are simply my views) I find it annoying, "deramping" even, when people praise or defend TK. This is someone who in my view is *discounting* the share price and it is up there with defending Sharistani from where I sit. Why on earth would *anyone* defend something that is *discounting* the share price? It makes absolutely no sense from my point of view. Why would you want to keep something in the company that is keeping the share price down and adds risk? So while people may accuse me of being negative or deramping because I feel that we are on course for a £5 share price in 2015 *in the absence of a takeover*, it is my view that ANYONE defending TK staying at the company *today* is deramping the share price *today*. Not in 2015. Today. Now I realise that this may sound odd to you, as you clearly hold a different point of view from me on both TK's discount on the share price and the probable share price value by 2015. But surely, even if you do not agree with me, you can see from my point of view that if I feel that TK is discounting the present day share price, that I would find those defending TK and therefore defending a low share price, abhorrent ((utterly opposed or in conflict; contrary ))? Please note that this is not about the merits or otherwise of TK's discount or value on the present share price (as you noted, this has been done to death) , simply a discussion of perspectives and understanding where the other person is coming from. I hope this engenders a response in a similar fashion as genuinely it would be good to bury this hatchet and not in one another's' skulls! ILS - Buriram. 'Wonder what TK $2.8 million personal expenses were for, that's over $7,500 per day on top of his salary and various bonuses..........hope he provided receipts............' -------------- Never stops, does it? A relentless stream of whinging, negativity, moaning and misery. And yesterday you actually began a reply to me with 'I'm positive on GKP . . .' Constructive criticism is always good but I don't think it's in you to offer any. If you're positive, as you say you are, try giving just one day to looking at the upside of the stock you allege you hold. How about today? ------------------------ Feel free to show me how to criticise constructively TK taking $2.8 million in personal expenses, over $7,500 per day over a year so I can try and learn from you.......Oh that's right you would prefer things like this weren't mentioned and were brushed under the carpet as there was no cg issue at GKP and the M&G4 were only voted in to facilitate a quick low ball TO....... Everybody knows the upside of this stock, but it's not going to happen till the BoD start delivering, go back and watch the ID presentation again, now 6-7 weeks later or however long it was and see what a farce it was, but yet again best we don't mention this. ========== Hello all, Apologies in advance for an opinion-based post/semi-rant. I urge you to stop reading as soon as you're bored. Some people have been posting on III recently pronouncing that order has been restored to the board. I disagree - it's just not quite as bad as it recently was. The cumulative frustration involved within the investment in GKP is immense. It's like a gas that turns people mad, and sets people against each other. Any poster of any notoriety seems to be questioned as to their agenda now, regardless of what they have posted and why they might have posted it. I think that the 'GKP gas' has bred a culture of paranoia, which has also been helped along by the genuine 'exposure' of some posters along our journey. I really do think that many people would do well to take a few steps back and take a deep breath, and then remember that we're all invested in a company that holds the biggest onshore oil discovery in at least half a century - and that this find could/should be the main catalyst in catapulting ( to move quickly, suddenly, or forcibly.) a historically oppressed people to huge affluence. The company is what it is. I don't like Todd much, I don't like the delays on almost every element of news flow either - who does? But I don't think that we can really say with any conviction that Todd or GKP are to blame for the tardy news flow, or even the court case and the associated perpetual dragging. The fortunes of a potential new country are at stake here - and this could be their 'pocket aces' moment. Do we not think that the KRG might be running the show/calling the shots? When I speak to other GKP investors (which I do quite a lot) the conversations mostly revolve around what we don't know about, rather than what we do. When we don't know what's really going on, we look for answers. When the answers don't emerge, we get frustrated. When frustration occurs, people start to turn on each other. When people turn on each other, it gets nasty in places, and meaningful and helpful opinion becomes lost within a nebulous mess of infighting over differences of opinion that are just that - but they suddenly become everyone's immediate focus all the same. And was the appointment of Perella Weinberg a clever publicity stunt to gain momentum to a calculated 'pump and dump', or have Yergin & Co actually been working on our behalf behind the scenes with a much bigger picture in mind? One thing is pretty much for sure - nothing that any of the BB contributors have to offer up these days holds even the slightest iota of weight when it comes to the final outcome of our investment, whatever that might end up looking like. When big oil and big politics mix, it forms a variant of liquid that is ironically more viscous than oil. We're all trying to wade through it whilst trying to manage our own hopes and expectations, and in many cases those of our families. It's a huge shame that many investors have gotten caught up in using their limited energies in bickering with folk that are essentially on their team. I still suspect that events will unravel in a very pleasing fashion, just probably not within the timescales that we hope. Yes - Todd and Co have been giving it the spiel with regard to becoming a full producer... but would the KRG want that? And more importantly, where would the money come from? It's 'sit and wait' time now. The pipelines are still being built, the mutual benefit with Turkey has been established (don't forget the gas!), the oil is still in the ground (most of it, for now), CC judgement is pretty much imminent, the Super Majors still geographically surround us and I personally think that the overall silence is becoming louder and louder. Keep well, and stay sane, All the best, Axo ==============