-- The authors are Reuters Breakingviews columnists. The opinions expressed are their own --
By Una Galani and Fiona Maharg Bravo
LONDON, Feb 23 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Arab unrest will test the limits of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The oil cartel has enough spare capacity to cope with disruptions from Libya and elsewhere. However, the quality of crude differs, and supply could be squeezed if other member countries were to come under threat.
OPEC has around 5 million barrels per day of spare capacity, mostly in Saudi Arabia. That's twice the amount it had during the last oil price spike in 2008. In addition, members of the International Energy Agency have sufficient stockpiles to pump an extra 2 million barrels a day for two years if necessary.
These reserves are more than sufficient to cover a total shutdown in Libya, which produces around 1.6 million barrels per day, equivalent to 2 percent of global output. Even if Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen also stopped production at the same time, the total loss to world oil output would only add up to 2.7 million barrels per day.
Revolutions and riots in these countries have so far led to manageable disruption. Nevertheless, oil above $110 per barrel suggests markets are pricing in further upheaval. Turmoil in Algeria, with 1.8 million barrels per day, would really spook the market. And if unrest spread to Saudi Arabia, which accounts for about 12 percent of global oil production, a big shock would be on the cards.
What's more, not all oil is the same. Libya's high quality crude can't easily be replaced with supplies from other OPEC members. The increase in worldwide refining capacity in recent years may ease this problem. Italy, which imports about 22 percent of its oil from Libya, has enough extra capacity to process heavier oils, according to STRATFOR, a global intelligence consultancy. But the difference in quality complicates the picture. So does timing; prices react immediately, but it would take Saudi up to one month to bring extra barrels to market.
Damage to infrastructure from the current tumult could also lead to a lasting squeeze. Countries in Asia with small stockpiles may also feel more pinched. In the long run, oil-dependent countries cannot afford to turn off the taps for long. Even so, the next few months are bound to be bumpy.
CONTEXT NEWS
-- The oil price rose above $110 per barrel on Feb. 23 as ongoing turmoil in Libya fuelled fears the unrest could choke supplies and spread to other oil-producing nations.
-- Brent for April delivery was up $4 a barrel to $109.78 by 1600 GMT. On Feb. 21 the price hit a previous 2-1/2-year high of $108.70.
-- Repsol, Eni and BASF's Wintershall have all halted operations amid violent clashes in Libya, which pumps 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd), or nearly 2 percent of global supply.
((una.galani@thomsonreuters.com))
((fiona.bravo@thomsonreuters.com))
(Editing by Peter Thal Larsen and Sarah Bailey)
Showing posts with label Stratfor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stratfor. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Saturday, December 11, 2010
US diplomat Richard Holbrooke in critical condition
Richard Holbrooke, State Department special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, testifies before the House Appropriations State and Foreign Operations Subcommittee during a hearing on Oversight of U.S. Civilian Assistance for Afghanistan on Capitol Hill in Washington in this July 28, 2010 file photograph. Holbrooke, who was President Barack Obama's special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, died on December 13, 2010, CNN reported citing a senior U.S. official. He was 69. REUTERS/Molly Riley/Files (UNITED STATES - Tags: HEALTH POLITICS PROFILE IMAGES OF THE DAY)
12 Dec 2010 01:33:09 GMT
Source: Reuters
Background
• Pakistan floods 2010
• Afghan turmoil
MORE >>
* Special representative for Afghanistan, Pakistan
* Painful condition is considered life-threatening
* Holbrooke met regularly with regional leaders (Adds Obama statement, paragraphs 5-6)
By Missy Ryan
WASHINGTON, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Richard Holbrooke, the veteran diplomat U.S. President Barack Obama tapped as his special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, was in critical condition on Saturday after surgery to repair a tear in his aorta, the State Department said.
The 69-year-old Holbrooke, who brokered the 1995 accord ending the Balkans war, has been a key player in Obama's efforts to turn around the faltering 9-year-old war in Afghanistan, where violence has surged and at least 477 U.S. soldiers have been killed this year alone.
Holbrooke fell ill at the State Department on Friday and was admitted to nearby George Washington University hospital.
"This morning, doctors completed surgery to repair a tear in his aorta," the State Department said on Saturday. "He is in critical condition and has been joined by his family."
Obama said in a statement he and his wife, Michelle, were praying for Holbrooke.
"Richard Holbrooke is a towering figure in American foreign policy, a critical member of my Afghanistan and Pakistan team, and a tireless public servant who has won the admiration of the American people and people around the world," Obama said.
A tear in this major artery of the body, known as an aortic dissection, is a painful and life-threatening condition that carries the risk of complications such as stroke, heart attack and kidney failure, according to Dr. Duke Cameron, chief of cardiac surgery at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore.
Recovery often entails a week in the hospital and three to four months for full recovery, said Cameron, who is not one of Holbrooke's doctors.
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Full coverage of Afghanistan and Pakistan: [ID:nAFPAK]
Factbox on Holbrooke: [ID:nN11133470]
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"Half of the people who have it (a tear in the aorta) will die within 48 hours if there is no treatment for it," Cameron said in a telephone interview. "Even those who go to surgery, the chance of dying either in the operating room or a short time afterwards in 20 or 25 percent."
A prolonged absence for Holbrooke could be a blow to Obama's efforts to demonstrate swift progress in Afghanistan next year, when Washington hopes to start putting Afghan forces in the lead and start bringing U.S. troops home in July.
A frequent visitor to both Afghanistan and Pakistan, Holbrooke had worked to build personal relationships with the region's leaders, while at home he has sought to allay concerns in the U.S. Congress over the course of the war.
Holbrooke's illness comes just before the White House is due to roll out an assessment of the revised strategy for the troubled region that Obama unveiled a year ago.
Next week's review is expected to conclude that despite entrenched corruption and weak governance, U.S. and NATO forces are making progress on security in parts of Afghanistan. The review will not bring any major changes to strategy.
Kamran Bokhari, director for Middle East and South Asia at intelligence firm STRATFOR, said a lengthy absence for Holbrooke could be a short-term setback because he had developed a rapport with President Asif Ali Zardari and military leaders in Pakistan, and to a lesser degree with leaders in Kabul.
"It takes time for a new person to come in and pick up from where his predecessor left off. ... But in the long run, the role of one person is minimal, especially in a place like the United States with strong institutions," he said.
Some analysts have said Holbrooke's well-known confrontational style may have made him less effective in dealing with leaders grappling with fragile political institutions.
'MOST DIFFICULT JOB'
With a career that included stints in Vietnam as well as serving as the top U.S. diplomat for East Asia, for Europe and at the United Nations, Holbrooke's most notable achievement has been bringing all sides in the Bosnia conflict to the negotiating table in Dayton, Ohio. The resulting 1995 Dayton accords ended the conflict.
During congressional testimony on July 28, Holbrooke conceded that fighting a resurgent Taliban and helping to rebuild Afghanistan were massive tasks. But he repeatedly defended the Obama administration's strategy.
He called the Afghanistan mission "the most difficult job I've had in my career." But, he said, "Number one, on a personal note, I wouldn't be in this job if I thought it was impossible to succeed."
"We're not delusional," Holbrooke added, listing problems in Afghanistan from high illiteracy to trying to help its government be accountable to its own people.
Violence in Afghanistan has soared this year to its highest levels since the Taliban was ousted by U.S.-backed Afghan forces in 2001.
A year ago, when he announced his new strategy, Obama ordered 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan.
Some of those could start coming home in July as foreign troops begin transferring security control to local forces. President Hamid Karzai hopes to have Afghans in the lead across the country by the end of 2014. (Additional reporting by Glenn Somerville, Arshad Mohammed, Will Dunham and Matt Spetalnick; Editing by Jackie Frank and Peter Cooney)
===========
Biden hands Obama get-well letter to Saudi king's family
16 Dec 2010
Source: reuters // Reuters
WASHINGTON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Vice President Joe Biden visited the New York hospital where Saudi King Abdullah is recuperating from surgery on Thursday and delivered a letter from President Barack Obama wishing him a speedy recovery, the White House said.
"The vice president was received by King Abdullah's family," including one of his sons, the White House said in a statement. "During his visit with King Abdullah's family, the vice president delivered a personal letter from President Obama for the king, wishing him a speedy recovery."
The king, thought to be around 86 or 87, had surgery on his back in New York in November after a blood clot complicated a slipped spinal disc. The kingdom's health minister said afterward that his health was "very reassuring."
King Abdullah underwent a second successful operation on Dec. 2 to stabilize vertebrae in his spinal column, the royal court said in a statement carried by the Saudi state news agency.
The royal court has not said when King Abdullah would return to his Gulf Arab kingdom, the world's largest oil exporter and a close U.S. ally. (Reporting by Matt Spetalnick)
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
ANALYSIS-Pakistan to play key role in talks with Taliban
20 Jul 2010 11:50:56 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Chris Allbritton
ISLAMABAD, July 20 (Reuters) - Afghan President Hamid Karzai needs Pakistan's help to convince some Taliban factions to end their insurgency, a central plank of his peace strategy, but doubts remain about Islamabad's motives and ability to deliver.
Pakistan and Afghanistan are both seeking to encourage some elements of the Taliban to reconcile with the Afghan government by renouncing al Qaeda, laying down their arms and taking part in the Afghan political process. [ID:nSGE66C0EA]
"Pakistan wants to help Afghanistan," Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said at a dinner at the Pakistani Ambassador's house in Kabul on Monday night.
"It is for them to decide what they want to do. We want to help them as good neighbours because we feel that a stable, peaceful, prosperous Afghanistan is in Pakistan's interest."
Crucial to Islamabad's efforts will be the attitude of the Haqqani network, which operates on the Afghan-Pakistan border and has longstanding links to Pakistani military intelligence.
But the United States is doubtful one of the most brutal and effective factions of the Taliban insurgency can be persuaded to lay down its weapons and take part in Afghan politics.
"We would strongly advise our friends in Afghanistan to deal with those who are committed to a peaceful future," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Monday while on a trip to Islamabad.
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For more Kabul conference stories, click [ID:nKABCON]
Stories on Pakistan: http://link.reuters.com/kac58m
Pakistan blog: http://blogs.reuters.com/Pakistan/
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Headed by Jalaluddin Haqqani, the Haqqani network is allied with the Taliban and is believed to have close links to al Qaeda. [ID:nSGE65G062]
The U.S. State Department is likely soon to declare the Haqqani network an international terrorist organisation.
Analysts believe Pakistan is holding groups such as the Haqqani network in reserve to maintain influence in Afghanistan after the Americans begin to leave next year and to check the rising presence of its arch-rival, India, and to a lesser degree Iran.
LESSON LEARNED
But Pakistan is also looking to broaden its influence in Pakistan so that it is not seen as simply backing the Taliban or the Pashtun groups that dominate much of the south, as it did in the 1990s.
To do that, the Pakistanis will have to offer something. "It seems some interaction has taken place between Haqqani and perhaps Pakistan and Afghanistan," said Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi, a Pakistani political analyst. "But again, what would the Afghan government be willing to offer them?"
He does not think the Haqqani fighters or other groups would be so ready to "lay down their weapons and live happily ever after", he said. "There has to be some kind of offer to them."
Retired Pakistani Lieutenant General Talat Massod, now a prominent defence analyst, thinks Pakistan will try to broker a power-sharing agreement between Taliban militants and the Afghan government.
"If it can make them come into the political system, that is one of the major areas where Pakistan can play a role, especially Pakistan's military and ISI," he said, referring to Islamabad's main intelligence service.
What any Pakistan inducement might be is unclear. And that uncertainty leads to suspicions about what Pakistan might offer and why.
Pakistan has long ties to Afghan militant groups. It managed and propped them up -- funded by American and Saudi cash -- during the war against the Soviet occupation in the 1980s and was one of only three countries to recognise the Taliban government, with which Haqqani was allied, when it came to power in the 1990s.
Despite official statements that Pakistan broke off contact with the Afghan Taliban after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, senior Pakistani intelligence officials have said they've maintained some level of contact, if only to monitor the leadership council, which is widely believed by analysts to be hiding in Pakistan.
Source: Reuters
By Chris Allbritton
ISLAMABAD, July 20 (Reuters) - Afghan President Hamid Karzai needs Pakistan's help to convince some Taliban factions to end their insurgency, a central plank of his peace strategy, but doubts remain about Islamabad's motives and ability to deliver.
Pakistan and Afghanistan are both seeking to encourage some elements of the Taliban to reconcile with the Afghan government by renouncing al Qaeda, laying down their arms and taking part in the Afghan political process. [ID:nSGE66C0EA]
"Pakistan wants to help Afghanistan," Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said at a dinner at the Pakistani Ambassador's house in Kabul on Monday night.
"It is for them to decide what they want to do. We want to help them as good neighbours because we feel that a stable, peaceful, prosperous Afghanistan is in Pakistan's interest."
Crucial to Islamabad's efforts will be the attitude of the Haqqani network, which operates on the Afghan-Pakistan border and has longstanding links to Pakistani military intelligence.
But the United States is doubtful one of the most brutal and effective factions of the Taliban insurgency can be persuaded to lay down its weapons and take part in Afghan politics.
"We would strongly advise our friends in Afghanistan to deal with those who are committed to a peaceful future," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Monday while on a trip to Islamabad.
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For more Kabul conference stories, click [ID:nKABCON]
Stories on Pakistan: http://link.reuters.com/kac58m
Pakistan blog: http://blogs.reuters.com/Pakistan/
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Headed by Jalaluddin Haqqani, the Haqqani network is allied with the Taliban and is believed to have close links to al Qaeda. [ID:nSGE65G062]
The U.S. State Department is likely soon to declare the Haqqani network an international terrorist organisation.
Analysts believe Pakistan is holding groups such as the Haqqani network in reserve to maintain influence in Afghanistan after the Americans begin to leave next year and to check the rising presence of its arch-rival, India, and to a lesser degree Iran.
"Iran and India share the same allies," said Kamran Bokhari, a security analyst for the private intelligence firm Stratfor, referring to the two countries ties to Afghanistan's varied tribes and ethnic groups.
"Traditionally the Iranians allied with the Tajiks, the Hazaras, the Uzbeks, the same people the Indians have been supporting as well. And they both have an interest in making sure Pakistan doesn't dominate Afghanistan."
LESSON LEARNED
But Pakistan is also looking to broaden its influence in Pakistan so that it is not seen as simply backing the Taliban or the Pashtun groups that dominate much of the south, as it did in the 1990s.
"They learned their lesson last time," Bokhari said. "This time around the Pakistanis don't want to just back the Taliban. They're going to support Karzai, they're going to support the Taliban. They want to undermine Indian influence among Afghan society."
To do that, the Pakistanis will have to offer something. "It seems some interaction has taken place between Haqqani and perhaps Pakistan and Afghanistan," said Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi, a Pakistani political analyst. "But again, what would the Afghan government be willing to offer them?"
He does not think the Haqqani fighters or other groups would be so ready to "lay down their weapons and live happily ever after", he said. "There has to be some kind of offer to them."
Retired Pakistani Lieutenant General Talat Massod, now a prominent defence analyst, thinks Pakistan will try to broker a power-sharing agreement between Taliban militants and the Afghan government.
"If it can make them come into the political system, that is one of the major areas where Pakistan can play a role, especially Pakistan's military and ISI," he said, referring to Islamabad's main intelligence service.
What any Pakistan inducement might be is unclear. And that uncertainty leads to suspicions about what Pakistan might offer and why.
Pakistan has long ties to Afghan militant groups. It managed and propped them up -- funded by American and Saudi cash -- during the war against the Soviet occupation in the 1980s and was one of only three countries to recognise the Taliban government, with which Haqqani was allied, when it came to power in the 1990s.
Despite official statements that Pakistan broke off contact with the Afghan Taliban after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, senior Pakistani intelligence officials have said they've maintained some level of contact, if only to monitor the leadership council, which is widely believed by analysts to be hiding in Pakistan.
"I think there is some sort of unease in Washington," Bokhari said. "There are some who say we need the Pakistanis to help in the overall stabilisation in Afghanistan. But then there are those who say, we don't like the Haqqani network, and the Haqqani network is tied to all sorts of Pakistani intelligence and al Qaeda."(Additional reporting by Jonathan Burch in Kabul; Editing by Alex Richardson) (For more Reuters coverage of Afghanistan and Pakistan, see: http://www.reuters.com/places/pakistan)
"There is a gulf between how the Pakistanis define the 'good' and 'bad' Taliban and what Washington calls the reconcilable and irreconcilable Taliban."
Saturday, October 10, 2009
8 soldiers dead in attack on Pakistan army HQ
by Khurram Shahzad Khurram Shahzad – 44 mins ago
RAWALPINDI, Pakistan (AFP) – Heavily-armed militants tried to storm Pakistan's army headquarters on Saturday, with six soldiers and four rebels killed in an audacious attack near the capital Islamabad, officials said.
Six insurgents armed with automatic weapons and grenades shot their way through one checkpost in the garrison town of Rawalpindi, before being stopped by security forces at a second post. Two militants have fled, officials said.
Pakistan has seen a surge in attacks blamed on Taliban rebels in the past week, as the insurgents vow to take bloody revenge for the death of their leader Baitullah Mehsud in a US drone missile attack in August.
His deputy Colonel Attique ur Rehman told AFP: "Six soldiers were martyred in the attack."
The firefight came a day after a car bomb attack blamed on the Taliban killed 52 people in the northwest city of Peshawar, and as the military readies for an offensive against militants in their northwest tribal stronghold.
Another military official in Islamabad said there were at least six attackers in the assault on the heavily-fortified army command centre.
"There were at least six attackers. Four were killed. Two are still missing. The hunt is going on," said the official with Pakistan army's media wing.
He blamed the Rawalpindi attack on Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the umbrella militant movement based in the mountainous, semi-autonomous tribal belt that runs along the border with Afghanistan.
Soon after the attack, army commandos encircled the area and helicopter gunships flew overhead.
An AFP journalist at the scene of Saturday's gunbattle reported that the firefight lasted about an hour and a half, with helicopters ferrying the dead militants away after the battle ended.
Witnesses said the militants hurled hand grenades, with one man saying five explosions rang out amid the gunfire.
"A car was signalled to stop outside army headquarters," local police officer on the scene Amjad Ali told AFP. "The occupants opened fire and threw grenades at security guards who retaliated."
Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani strongly condemned the attack, a brief statement issued by his office in Islamabad said.
The military is wrapping up a fierce offensive against Taliban rebels in the northwestern Swat valley launched in April, with the army now poised to begin a similar assault in the lawless tribal belt.
The Taliban had already claimed responsibility for a suicide attack on Monday on a UN office in Islamabad, which killed five aid workers.
Taliban militants holed up in the northwest tribal belt have been blamed for a string of attacks and suicide blasts that have killed more than 2,100 people in the last two years, with 12 blasts hitting Islamabad alone.
Several bomb blasts in the past two-and-a-half weeks in the northwest have killed dozens, with the Taliban threatening to unleash bigger assaults.
There was a lull in bomb attacks after Baitullah Mehsud's death in an August 5 US drone strike, but analysts had warned that the new Taliban leadership would likely be keen to show their strength with fresh, dramatic strikes.
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Sat Oct 10, 2009 5:30am EDT
By Augustine Anthony
RAWALPINDI, Pakistan (Reuters) - Suspected militants dressed in army uniforms attacked Pakistan's army headquarters on Saturday, killing four guards and triggering a battle in which four gunmen were killed, military officials said.
The brazen attack on the tightly guarded headquarters in the city of Rawalpindi came as the army prepares a major offensive against Pakistani Taliban militants in their northwestern stronghold on the Afghan border.
The gunmen drove in a white van to a main gate at the sprawling complex, opening fire and throwing at least one grenade when challenged, security officials said.
The gunmen then exchanged fire with soldiers for about 40 minutes. Four gunmen and four guards were killed but two of the gunmen escaped, military officials said.
"Two terrorists are still missing, a search operation is on," said a military official who declined to be identified.
Another military official said some firing had been heard and a helicopter was helping in the search for the two gunmen.
Dawn television said the fleeing gunmen had taken two military men hostage.
Al Qaeda-linked Islamist militants have launched numerous attacks in Pakistan over the past couple of years, most aimed at the security forces and government and foreign targets.
The militants have attacked military targets in Rawalpindi before.
Television pictures showed the militants' white van, its doors open, where the gunmen abandoned it by concrete barriers outside the gate.
OFFENSIVE LOOMS
The attack came a day after a suspected suicide car-bomber killed 49 people in the city of Peshawar in an attack the government said underscored the need for the all-out offensive.
Early this year, the militants pushed to within 100 km (60 miles) of Islamabad, raising fears for nuclear-armed Pakistan's stability. An exasperated U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the government appeared to be "abdicating" to the militants.
The United States needs Pakistani help against militants crossing into Afghanistan to battle U.S.-led forces there.
But in late April the security forces launched a sustained offensive in the Swat valley, 120 km (80 miles) northwest of Islamabad, largely clearing Taliban from the region.
The militants suffered another big blow on August 5, when their overall leader, Baitullah Mehsud, was killed in an attack by a missile-firing U.S. drone aircraft in South Waziristan.
Mehsud's death and reports of infighting about who would take over as leader raised hopes that the militants were in disarray.
But in recent weeks violence has been picking up after a relative lull following Mehsud's killing.
The government ordered the army to go on the offensive in South Waziristan in June and security forces have been launching air and artillery strikes, while moving in troops, blockading the region and trying to split off factions.
The army has declined to say when it would send in ground troops.
(Additional reporting by Kamran Haider; Writing by Robert Birsel; Editing by Jerry Norton)
------------
Updated at: 2100 PST, Saturday, October 10, 2009
ISLAMABAD: About 4 to 5 terrorists in a security office near second GHQ check post are holding 10-15 people, including security and civil personnel, hostage after the attempted attack on GHQ, DG ISPR Maj. General Athar Abbas said on Saturday.
Security personnel have surrounded the office, ISPR added.
Earlier, six terrorists attempted to launch an attack on GHQ which was foiled by the security personnel. Four terrorists were killed while two escaped from the scene. Six security men including Brigadier Anwar and Lt. Col. Wasim were also martyred in the incident.
Six terrorists in army uniform attempted to get entry into GHQ at 11:30 am on Saturday from gate no 1. When stopped by security officials, they reached at check post no 1 and opened fire on security men after taking positions after leaving the car. Four terrorists were killed and two fled during trade of fire between security officials and terrorists. Army gunship helicopters started hovering over the area for vigilance. The commandos seized the bodies of terrorists and shifted them.
The DG ISPR confirmed killing of four terrorists whereas six security personnel including Brigadier Anwar and Lt. Col. Wasim were also martyred in the operation. Two terrorists managed to flee.
The security men later found that the escaped terrorists took shelter in a nearby security office which is now surrounded by security forces.
The ISPR said that more than two terrorists are in the security office where several security personnel are held hostage.
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GHQ attacked
* Brigadier, lieutenant colonel and four soldiers martyred as six to seven terrorists wearing army uniform reach military headquarters on van
* Suicide bomber among five terrorists killed
* 10 to 15 army personnel being held hostage in security building
* Officials say action to rescue hostages to be launched before dawn
By Aamir Yasin
RAWALPINDI: Six army personnel, including a brigadier and a lieutenant colonel, were killed and five others seriously injured when terrorists clad in army uniform attacked the General Headquarters (GHQ) at around 11:30am on Saturday, Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Director General Athar Abbas told Daily Times. He said that five of the 6 to 7 terrorists who attacked the headquarters were killed in retaliatory fire of the security forces.
Gen Abbas said the terrorists reached the military headquarters in a Suzuki van, and opened fire and blew up hand grenades when they were stopped for checking at the first checkpost. “Five terrorists, one of whom was a suicide bomber, were killed in the ensuing gunbattle. Three to four accomplices of the terrorists, however, managed to cross over the grassy grounds unnoticed during the shootout,” Gen Abbas said.
He said that the highly-trained terrorists armed with sophisticated weapons entered the office of the security staff outside the premises of the General Headquarters and took 10 to 15 officials hostage. The security forces have cordoned off the entire area and a siege was continuing to capture the terrorists alive when this report was made at 3am on Sunday.
Gen Abbas identified the killed brigadier and lieutenant colonel as Anwaar and Waseem, respectively.
“No senior military or intelligence officials are among those being held hostage by the terrorists,” he said, adding that commandos of the Special Services Group had laid siege to the security office and “they will decide when to act”.
Gen Abbas said that the soldiers killed five terrorists after a 45-minute gunfight.
The entire area was soon cordoned off and army helicopters were seen hovering over the General Headquarters. The adjoining roads were immediately closed to traffic as panic gripped the entire cantonment area.
“We are trying to finish the stand-off as early as possible,” Gen Abbas said as power supply to the area was disconnected for a likely operation.
“It is a war of nerves,” said an official, adding that the action would probably be completed before dawn.
Army ambulances and a helicopter were used to shift the injured and dead bodies to the Combined Military Hospital (CMH) and the Military Hospital (MH).
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Pakistan commandos rescue 25 hostages, three killed
11 Oct 2009 02:00:18 GMT
Source: Reuters
(For more Pakistan and Afghanistan stories, click [ID:nAFPAK])
* Twenty-five hostages freed, three killed
* Four gunmen killed as commandos storm building
* U.S. Secretary of State Clinton condemns attack
By Augustine Anthony
RAWALPINDI, Pakistan, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Pakistani commandos stormed a building near army headquarters on Sunday and freed 25 hostages being held there by suspected Taliban militants, a military spokesman said.
Three hostages and four of the gunmen were killed, said the spokesman, Major General Athar Abbas.
Saturday's brazen attack on the tightly guarded headquarters in the garrison city of Rawalpindi came as the military prepared a major offensive against the militants in their northwestern stronghold of South Waziristan on the Afghan border. [ID:nSP440401]
The strike at the heart of the powerful military is likely to revive fears for nuclear-armed Pakistan's stability at a time when the United States needs its help in the campaign against an intensifying insurgency in Afghanistan.
A blast and gunfire erupted before dawn as soldiers assaulted the security office building near the army headquarters where the gunmen and their hostages were holed up.
"They were in a room with a terrorist who was wearing a suicide jacket but the commandos acted promptly and gunned him down before he could pull the trigger," Abbas said.
"Three of the hostages were killed due to militant firing," he said. Three other hostages were later found alive.
Soldiers were searching for other gunmen, he said, adding there were believed to have been more than five of them in the building.
A Reuters reporter saw three ambulances leaving the area.
On Saturday, gunmen wearing army uniforms attacked the headquarters killing six soldiers in a gun battle at a main gate.
Four gunmen were killed there and two of their wounded colleagues captured, security officials said. But other gunmen fled and took hostages in the office building.
Pakistani Taliban militants linked to al Qaeda have launched numerous attacks in Pakistan over the past couple of years, most aimed at the government and security forces, including bomb attacks in Rawalpindi. [ID:nISL512917]
On Monday, a suicide bomber attacked a U.N. office in Islamabad, and on Friday a suspected suicide bomber killed 49 people in Peshawar. [ID:nSP187518]
"What happened in Peshawar, Islamabad and today, all roads lead to South Waziristan," Interior Minister Rehman Malik said on Saturday.
"Now the government has no other option but to launch an offensive," he said.
CLINTON CONDEMNS ATTACK
The raid on the army headquarters bore the hallmarks of several similarly audacious "swarm" attacks this year.
In March, gunmen attacked Sri Lanka's cricket team as it drove to a match in the city of Lahore and weeks later militants raided a police cadet college in the same city.
At around the same time, militants pushed to within 100 km (60 miles) of Islamabad, sparking grave concern among allies, including the United States, for Pakistan's prospects and fears for the safety of its nuclear weapons.
The United States needs Pakistani help against militants crossing into Afghanistan to fight U.S.-led forces there and has been urging action against Afghan Taliban factions on the border.
In late April, the army launched an offensive in the Swat valley, 120 km (80 miles) northwest of Islamabad, and largely clearing the Taliban out.
The militants suffered another major blow on Aug. 5, when their overall leader, Baitullah Mehsud, was killed in a missile attack by a U.S. drone aircraft in South Waziristan.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton condemned the Saturday attack saying it showed the threat to the Pakistani government and the very important steps the civilian leadership and military were taking to root out extremists.
The army has not said when it will send ground troops in to South Waziristan.
India has demanded action against anti-India militant groups based in Pakistan's Punjab province and North West Frontier Province Information Minister Iftikhar Hussain called on Saturday for the elimination of militant bases in Punjab. [ID:nISL480327]
Even if a South Waziristan offensive was successful militants would get help from Punjab, he told reporters. (For more Reuters coverage of Afghanistan and Pakistan, see: http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/afghanistanpakistan) (Reporting by Kamran Haider; Writing by Robert Birsel; Editing by Jerry Norton)
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A week of terror strikes across Pakistan, capped by a stunning assault on army headquarters, show the Taliban have rebounded and appear determined to shake the nation's resolve as the military plans for an offensive against the group's stronghold on the Afghan border.
The 22-hour attack on Pakistan's "Pentagon" in the city of Rawalpindi, which ended with 20 dead Sunday, was the third terror attack in a week to shake this nuclear-armed nation. It demonstrated the militants' renewed strength since their leader was killed by a U.S. missile strike in August and military operations against their bases.
The U.S. has long pushed Islamabad to take more action against Taliban and al-Qaida militants, who are also blamed for attacks on U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan, and the army carried out a successful campaign against the militants in the Swat
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But the army had been unwilling to go all out in the lawless tribal areas along the border that serve as the Taliban's main refuge. Three offensives into South Waziristan since 2001 ended in failure and the government signed peace deals with the militants.
On the heels of the Swat victory, the military launched a campaign of airstrikes on the militants in Waziristan and in recent weeks officials said they were preparing a full offensive there.
That was before the embarrassing attack on army headquarters bolstered militants' assertions they are ready to take on the military, and threatened to deflate the army's newfound popularity.
In the wake of the seige in Rawalpindi, the government said it would not be deterred. The military launched two airstrikes Sunday evening on suspected militant targets in South Waziristan, killing at least five insurgents and ending a five-day lull in attacks there, intelligence officials said.
"We are going to attack the terrorists, the miscreants over there who are disturbing the state and damaging the peace," Information Minister Qamar Zaman Kaira said. "Wherever they will be, we will follow them. We will pursue them. We will take them to task."
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The violence killed 20, including three hostages and nine militants, while 42 hostages were freed, the military said. Many of them had been held in a single room by militant wearing a suicide vest, who was shot by commandos before he could detonate his explosives, the army said.
The military said it captured the militant's ringleader, who was known as Aqeel or "Dr. Usman." Army spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas said the militant's nickname derived from the time he spent as a guard at an army nursing school before he joined the insurgents.
The name matched that of a militant suspected of orchestrating an attack in Lahore earlier this year on Sri Lanka's visiting cricket team. Hakimullah Mehsud, the new leader of the Taliban, had claimed responsibility for that attack.
Officials have warned that Taliban fighters close to the border, Punjabi militants spread out across the country and foreign al-Qaida operatives were increasingly joining forces, dramatically increasing the dangers to Pakistan.
The weekend strike was a stunning finale to a week of attacks that highlighted the militants' ability to strike a range of targets in different cities, seemingly at will.
On Monday, a suicide bomber dressed as a paramilitary police officer blew himself up inside a heavily guarded U.N. aid agency in the heart of the capital, Islamabad. On Friday, a suspected militant detonated an explosives-laden car in the middle of a busy market in the northwestern city of Peshawar, killing 53 people.
Before the attacks, Pakistani officials said their operations against the militants and the killing of Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud in a CIA drone attack had left the insurgency in disarray. But the militants coalesced around his former deputy, Hakimullah Mehsud, who promised vengeance last week for the deadly airstrikes and warned that his fighters were prepared to repel any government offensive into Waziristan.
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Qazi estimated 6,000 battle-hardened Uzbek fighters are waiting in the mountains, along with thousand of local fighters from the Mehsud tribe of warriors with years of experience fighting the U.S. and Pakistan.
"The militants have had five, six years to build up infrastructure, so they're prepared," said Kamran Bokhari, an analyst with Stratfor, a U.S.-based global intelligence firm. "This is jihadist central in the country, so going in there is not going to be easy."
Yet, the recent attacks have left the government little choice but to confront the Taliban on their home turf, and the military appears better prepared than during its previous forays into the area, he said.
The army reportedly sent two divisions totaling 28,000 men to the area. They have blockaded the region, choking the Taliban's supply lines, cutting deals with local militias to prevent them from joining up with the militants and using airstrikes to take out insurgent leaders and keep the group on the run.
"This time the preparation is there. This time the resolve is there. This time pretty much everybody is on board," Bokhari said. "(The militant attacks) make it all the more clear that if you don't do this, this monstrosity that's out there in the tribal belt is not going away."
———
Associated Press reporters Jill Lawless in London and Zarar Khan in Islamabad contributed to this report.
RAWALPINDI, Pakistan (AFP) – Heavily-armed militants tried to storm Pakistan's army headquarters on Saturday, with six soldiers and four rebels killed in an audacious attack near the capital Islamabad, officials said.
Six insurgents armed with automatic weapons and grenades shot their way through one checkpost in the garrison town of Rawalpindi, before being stopped by security forces at a second post. Two militants have fled, officials said.
Pakistan has seen a surge in attacks blamed on Taliban rebels in the past week, as the insurgents vow to take bloody revenge for the death of their leader Baitullah Mehsud in a US drone missile attack in August.
"The terrorists were wearing army uniform and were armed with sophisticated weapons and grenades," army spokesman Major General Athar Abbas said on state-run television.
"They came in a van and tried to enter from gate one to gate two in the sensitive area. They were stopped and now the situation is under our control," he said in a separate interview on private TV channel Geo.
"The fighting is over now. The situation is under control."
His deputy Colonel Attique ur Rehman told AFP: "Six soldiers were martyred in the attack."
The firefight came a day after a car bomb attack blamed on the Taliban killed 52 people in the northwest city of Peshawar, and as the military readies for an offensive against militants in their northwest tribal stronghold.
Another military official in Islamabad said there were at least six attackers in the assault on the heavily-fortified army command centre.
"There were at least six attackers. Four were killed. Two are still missing. The hunt is going on," said the official with Pakistan army's media wing.
He blamed the Rawalpindi attack on Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the umbrella militant movement based in the mountainous, semi-autonomous tribal belt that runs along the border with Afghanistan.
Soon after the attack, army commandos encircled the area and helicopter gunships flew overhead.
An AFP journalist at the scene of Saturday's gunbattle reported that the firefight lasted about an hour and a half, with helicopters ferrying the dead militants away after the battle ended.
Witnesses said the militants hurled hand grenades, with one man saying five explosions rang out amid the gunfire.
"A car was signalled to stop outside army headquarters," local police officer on the scene Amjad Ali told AFP. "The occupants opened fire and threw grenades at security guards who retaliated."
Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani strongly condemned the attack, a brief statement issued by his office in Islamabad said.
The military is wrapping up a fierce offensive against Taliban rebels in the northwestern Swat valley launched in April, with the army now poised to begin a similar assault in the lawless tribal belt.
The Taliban had already claimed responsibility for a suicide attack on Monday on a UN office in Islamabad, which killed five aid workers.
Taliban militants holed up in the northwest tribal belt have been blamed for a string of attacks and suicide blasts that have killed more than 2,100 people in the last two years, with 12 blasts hitting Islamabad alone.
Several bomb blasts in the past two-and-a-half weeks in the northwest have killed dozens, with the Taliban threatening to unleash bigger assaults.
There was a lull in bomb attacks after Baitullah Mehsud's death in an August 5 US drone strike, but analysts had warned that the new Taliban leadership would likely be keen to show their strength with fresh, dramatic strikes.
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Gunmen attack Pakistani army HQ
Sat Oct 10, 2009 5:30am EDT
By Augustine Anthony
RAWALPINDI, Pakistan (Reuters) - Suspected militants dressed in army uniforms attacked Pakistan's army headquarters on Saturday, killing four guards and triggering a battle in which four gunmen were killed, military officials said.
The brazen attack on the tightly guarded headquarters in the city of Rawalpindi came as the army prepares a major offensive against Pakistani Taliban militants in their northwestern stronghold on the Afghan border.
The gunmen drove in a white van to a main gate at the sprawling complex, opening fire and throwing at least one grenade when challenged, security officials said.
The gunmen then exchanged fire with soldiers for about 40 minutes. Four gunmen and four guards were killed but two of the gunmen escaped, military officials said.
"Two terrorists are still missing, a search operation is on," said a military official who declined to be identified.
Another military official said some firing had been heard and a helicopter was helping in the search for the two gunmen.
Dawn television said the fleeing gunmen had taken two military men hostage.
Al Qaeda-linked Islamist militants have launched numerous attacks in Pakistan over the past couple of years, most aimed at the security forces and government and foreign targets.
The militants have attacked military targets in Rawalpindi before.
Television pictures showed the militants' white van, its doors open, where the gunmen abandoned it by concrete barriers outside the gate.
OFFENSIVE LOOMS
The attack came a day after a suspected suicide car-bomber killed 49 people in the city of Peshawar in an attack the government said underscored the need for the all-out offensive.
Early this year, the militants pushed to within 100 km (60 miles) of Islamabad, raising fears for nuclear-armed Pakistan's stability. An exasperated U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the government appeared to be "abdicating" to the militants.
The United States needs Pakistani help against militants crossing into Afghanistan to battle U.S.-led forces there.
But in late April the security forces launched a sustained offensive in the Swat valley, 120 km (80 miles) northwest of Islamabad, largely clearing Taliban from the region.
The militants suffered another big blow on August 5, when their overall leader, Baitullah Mehsud, was killed in an attack by a missile-firing U.S. drone aircraft in South Waziristan.
Mehsud's death and reports of infighting about who would take over as leader raised hopes that the militants were in disarray.
But in recent weeks violence has been picking up after a relative lull following Mehsud's killing.
The government ordered the army to go on the offensive in South Waziristan in June and security forces have been launching air and artillery strikes, while moving in troops, blockading the region and trying to split off factions.
The army has declined to say when it would send in ground troops.
(Additional reporting by Kamran Haider; Writing by Robert Birsel; Editing by Jerry Norton)
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Terrorists hold 10-15 people hostage in security office
Updated at: 2100 PST, Saturday, October 10, 2009
ISLAMABAD: About 4 to 5 terrorists in a security office near second GHQ check post are holding 10-15 people, including security and civil personnel, hostage after the attempted attack on GHQ, DG ISPR Maj. General Athar Abbas said on Saturday.
Security personnel have surrounded the office, ISPR added.
Earlier, six terrorists attempted to launch an attack on GHQ which was foiled by the security personnel. Four terrorists were killed while two escaped from the scene. Six security men including Brigadier Anwar and Lt. Col. Wasim were also martyred in the incident.
Six terrorists in army uniform attempted to get entry into GHQ at 11:30 am on Saturday from gate no 1. When stopped by security officials, they reached at check post no 1 and opened fire on security men after taking positions after leaving the car. Four terrorists were killed and two fled during trade of fire between security officials and terrorists. Army gunship helicopters started hovering over the area for vigilance. The commandos seized the bodies of terrorists and shifted them.
The DG ISPR confirmed killing of four terrorists whereas six security personnel including Brigadier Anwar and Lt. Col. Wasim were also martyred in the operation. Two terrorists managed to flee.
The security men later found that the escaped terrorists took shelter in a nearby security office which is now surrounded by security forces.
The ISPR said that more than two terrorists are in the security office where several security personnel are held hostage.
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GHQ attacked
* Brigadier, lieutenant colonel and four soldiers martyred as six to seven terrorists wearing army uniform reach military headquarters on van
* Suicide bomber among five terrorists killed
* 10 to 15 army personnel being held hostage in security building
* Officials say action to rescue hostages to be launched before dawn
By Aamir Yasin
RAWALPINDI: Six army personnel, including a brigadier and a lieutenant colonel, were killed and five others seriously injured when terrorists clad in army uniform attacked the General Headquarters (GHQ) at around 11:30am on Saturday, Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Director General Athar Abbas told Daily Times. He said that five of the 6 to 7 terrorists who attacked the headquarters were killed in retaliatory fire of the security forces.
Gen Abbas said the terrorists reached the military headquarters in a Suzuki van, and opened fire and blew up hand grenades when they were stopped for checking at the first checkpost. “Five terrorists, one of whom was a suicide bomber, were killed in the ensuing gunbattle. Three to four accomplices of the terrorists, however, managed to cross over the grassy grounds unnoticed during the shootout,” Gen Abbas said.
He said that the highly-trained terrorists armed with sophisticated weapons entered the office of the security staff outside the premises of the General Headquarters and took 10 to 15 officials hostage. The security forces have cordoned off the entire area and a siege was continuing to capture the terrorists alive when this report was made at 3am on Sunday.
Gen Abbas identified the killed brigadier and lieutenant colonel as Anwaar and Waseem, respectively.
“No senior military or intelligence officials are among those being held hostage by the terrorists,” he said, adding that commandos of the Special Services Group had laid siege to the security office and “they will decide when to act”.
“There was fierce firing, and then there was a blast,” an eyewitness told Daily Times. “Soldiers were running here and there … the firing continued for about half-an-hour and there was smoke everywhere. There was a break, and then the firing started again.”
Gen Abbas said that the soldiers killed five terrorists after a 45-minute gunfight.
The entire area was soon cordoned off and army helicopters were seen hovering over the General Headquarters. The adjoining roads were immediately closed to traffic as panic gripped the entire cantonment area.
“We are trying to finish the stand-off as early as possible,” Gen Abbas said as power supply to the area was disconnected for a likely operation.
“It is a war of nerves,” said an official, adding that the action would probably be completed before dawn.
Army ambulances and a helicopter were used to shift the injured and dead bodies to the Combined Military Hospital (CMH) and the Military Hospital (MH).
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Pakistan commandos rescue 25 hostages, three killed
11 Oct 2009 02:00:18 GMT
Source: Reuters
(For more Pakistan and Afghanistan stories, click [ID:nAFPAK])
* Twenty-five hostages freed, three killed
* Four gunmen killed as commandos storm building
* U.S. Secretary of State Clinton condemns attack
By Augustine Anthony
RAWALPINDI, Pakistan, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Pakistani commandos stormed a building near army headquarters on Sunday and freed 25 hostages being held there by suspected Taliban militants, a military spokesman said.
Three hostages and four of the gunmen were killed, said the spokesman, Major General Athar Abbas.
Saturday's brazen attack on the tightly guarded headquarters in the garrison city of Rawalpindi came as the military prepared a major offensive against the militants in their northwestern stronghold of South Waziristan on the Afghan border. [ID:nSP440401]
The strike at the heart of the powerful military is likely to revive fears for nuclear-armed Pakistan's stability at a time when the United States needs its help in the campaign against an intensifying insurgency in Afghanistan.
A blast and gunfire erupted before dawn as soldiers assaulted the security office building near the army headquarters where the gunmen and their hostages were holed up.
"They were in a room with a terrorist who was wearing a suicide jacket but the commandos acted promptly and gunned him down before he could pull the trigger," Abbas said.
"Three of the hostages were killed due to militant firing," he said. Three other hostages were later found alive.
Soldiers were searching for other gunmen, he said, adding there were believed to have been more than five of them in the building.
A Reuters reporter saw three ambulances leaving the area.
On Saturday, gunmen wearing army uniforms attacked the headquarters killing six soldiers in a gun battle at a main gate.
Four gunmen were killed there and two of their wounded colleagues captured, security officials said. But other gunmen fled and took hostages in the office building.
Pakistani Taliban militants linked to al Qaeda have launched numerous attacks in Pakistan over the past couple of years, most aimed at the government and security forces, including bomb attacks in Rawalpindi. [ID:nISL512917]
On Monday, a suicide bomber attacked a U.N. office in Islamabad, and on Friday a suspected suicide bomber killed 49 people in Peshawar. [ID:nSP187518]
"What happened in Peshawar, Islamabad and today, all roads lead to South Waziristan," Interior Minister Rehman Malik said on Saturday.
"Now the government has no other option but to launch an offensive," he said.
CLINTON CONDEMNS ATTACK
The raid on the army headquarters bore the hallmarks of several similarly audacious "swarm" attacks this year.
In March, gunmen attacked Sri Lanka's cricket team as it drove to a match in the city of Lahore and weeks later militants raided a police cadet college in the same city.
At around the same time, militants pushed to within 100 km (60 miles) of Islamabad, sparking grave concern among allies, including the United States, for Pakistan's prospects and fears for the safety of its nuclear weapons.
The United States needs Pakistani help against militants crossing into Afghanistan to fight U.S.-led forces there and has been urging action against Afghan Taliban factions on the border.
In late April, the army launched an offensive in the Swat valley, 120 km (80 miles) northwest of Islamabad, and largely clearing the Taliban out.
The militants suffered another major blow on Aug. 5, when their overall leader, Baitullah Mehsud, was killed in a missile attack by a U.S. drone aircraft in South Waziristan.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton condemned the Saturday attack saying it showed the threat to the Pakistani government and the very important steps the civilian leadership and military were taking to root out extremists.
The army has not said when it will send ground troops in to South Waziristan.
India has demanded action against anti-India militant groups based in Pakistan's Punjab province and North West Frontier Province Information Minister Iftikhar Hussain called on Saturday for the elimination of militant bases in Punjab. [ID:nISL480327]
Even if a South Waziristan offensive was successful militants would get help from Punjab, he told reporters. (For more Reuters coverage of Afghanistan and Pakistan, see: http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/afghanistanpakistan) (Reporting by Kamran Haider; Writing by Robert Birsel; Editing by Jerry Norton)
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A week of terror strikes across Pakistan, capped by a stunning assault on army headquarters, show the Taliban have rebounded and appear determined to shake the nation's resolve as the military plans for an offensive against the group's stronghold on the Afghan border.
The 22-hour attack on Pakistan's "Pentagon" in the city of Rawalpindi, which ended with 20 dead Sunday, was the third terror attack in a week to shake this nuclear-armed nation. It demonstrated the militants' renewed strength since their leader was killed by a U.S. missile strike in August and military operations against their bases.
The U.S. has long pushed Islamabad to take more action against Taliban and al-Qaida militants, who are also blamed for attacks on U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan, and the army carried out a successful campaign against the militants in the Swat
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But the army had been unwilling to go all out in the lawless tribal areas along the border that serve as the Taliban's main refuge. Three offensives into South Waziristan since 2001 ended in failure and the government signed peace deals with the militants.
On the heels of the Swat victory, the military launched a campaign of airstrikes on the militants in Waziristan and in recent weeks officials said they were preparing a full offensive there.
That was before the embarrassing attack on army headquarters bolstered militants' assertions they are ready to take on the military, and threatened to deflate the army's newfound popularity.
In the wake of the seige in Rawalpindi, the government said it would not be deterred. The military launched two airstrikes Sunday evening on suspected militant targets in South Waziristan, killing at least five insurgents and ending a five-day lull in attacks there, intelligence officials said.
"We are going to attack the terrorists, the miscreants over there who are disturbing the state and damaging the peace," Information Minister Qamar Zaman Kaira said. "Wherever they will be, we will follow them. We will pursue them. We will take them to task."
-----
The violence killed 20, including three hostages and nine militants, while 42 hostages were freed, the military said. Many of them had been held in a single room by militant wearing a suicide vest, who was shot by commandos before he could detonate his explosives, the army said.
The military said it captured the militant's ringleader, who was known as Aqeel or "Dr. Usman." Army spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas said the militant's nickname derived from the time he spent as a guard at an army nursing school before he joined the insurgents.
The name matched that of a militant suspected of orchestrating an attack in Lahore earlier this year on Sri Lanka's visiting cricket team. Hakimullah Mehsud, the new leader of the Taliban, had claimed responsibility for that attack.
A police intelligence report from July obtained by The Associated Press on Saturday warned that members of the Taliban along with the Punjab-based Jaish-e-Mohammed were planning to attack army headquarters after disguising themselves as soldiers. The report was given to the AP by an official in Punjab's home affairs ministry.
Officials have warned that Taliban fighters close to the border, Punjabi militants spread out across the country and foreign al-Qaida operatives were increasingly joining forces, dramatically increasing the dangers to Pakistan.
The weekend strike was a stunning finale to a week of attacks that highlighted the militants' ability to strike a range of targets in different cities, seemingly at will.
On Monday, a suicide bomber dressed as a paramilitary police officer blew himself up inside a heavily guarded U.N. aid agency in the heart of the capital, Islamabad. On Friday, a suspected militant detonated an explosives-laden car in the middle of a busy market in the northwestern city of Peshawar, killing 53 people.
Before the attacks, Pakistani officials said their operations against the militants and the killing of Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud in a CIA drone attack had left the insurgency in disarray. But the militants coalesced around his former deputy, Hakimullah Mehsud, who promised vengeance last week for the deadly airstrikes and warned that his fighters were prepared to repel any government offensive into Waziristan.
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"They are well organized, and if the army takes action, they are able to hit back," former intelligence chief Jawed Ashraf Qazi said. He warned of more militant attacks ahead of an offensive: "The longer the delay, the more these actions are likely to occur."
Qazi estimated 6,000 battle-hardened Uzbek fighters are waiting in the mountains, along with thousand of local fighters from the Mehsud tribe of warriors with years of experience fighting the U.S. and Pakistan.
"The militants have had five, six years to build up infrastructure, so they're prepared," said Kamran Bokhari, an analyst with Stratfor, a U.S.-based global intelligence firm. "This is jihadist central in the country, so going in there is not going to be easy."
Yet, the recent attacks have left the government little choice but to confront the Taliban on their home turf, and the military appears better prepared than during its previous forays into the area, he said.
The army reportedly sent two divisions totaling 28,000 men to the area. They have blockaded the region, choking the Taliban's supply lines, cutting deals with local militias to prevent them from joining up with the militants and using airstrikes to take out insurgent leaders and keep the group on the run.
"This time the preparation is there. This time the resolve is there. This time pretty much everybody is on board," Bokhari said. "(The militant attacks) make it all the more clear that if you don't do this, this monstrosity that's out there in the tribal belt is not going away."
———
Associated Press reporters Jill Lawless in London and Zarar Khan in Islamabad contributed to this report.
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