Is Turkey poised to invade Syria?

German weekly magazine Focus has said that last year's leaked audio of a high-level security meeting at the Turkish Foreign Ministry about possible military action in Syria via a false flag operation was recorded and then leaked by the US National Security Agency (NSA). The recording, which was posted online, featured a conversation between then-Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, National Intelligence Organization (MİT) head Hakan Fidan, Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Feridun Sinirlioğlu and Deputy Chief of General Staff Gen. Yaşar Güler. In the recording, the officials discussed how Turkey could start a war with Syria, what the legal grounds would be to do so and if it would be possible to create a pretext to deliberately drag Turkey into a war with Syria. They also discussed a false flag operation by having mortars firing into Turkey from Syria to create ostensibly legal grounds for a war. Only hours after the conversation was posted online, then-Prime Minister and current President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was quick to attribute the leak to the Hizmet movement, also known as the Gülen movement, without showing any evidence for his suspicions. Davutoğlu also accused Hizmet of leaking the recording and described the act as espionage. When he was later asked what evidence he had to lay the blame on Hizmet, Davutoğlu said he did not have any evidence but rather came to that conclusion based on his own convictions. The Turkish government immediately blocked access to YouTube in Turkey after the leak. The Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor's Office then initiated an investigation into the leak but after more than a year had passed, no announcement was made on any conclusion. The opposition and legal experts called on Erdoğan to prove his claim and warned that the claim would otherwise remain slander against a civilian group with millions of followers and sympathizers and cast further doubt on the credibility of the government. Erdoğan used the leak as an opportunity to attack Turkish Islamic scholar Fethullah Gülen, who is the inspiration behind the Hizmet movement and is also critical of corruption in the government. In an election rally in Diyarbakır before the March 30 local elections last year, Erdoğan said: “A meeting was held [between state officials] about the tomb of Süleyman Şah [in Syria]. They [Hizmet members] even leaked [the recording of] this meeting to YouTube. This is villainous; this is dishonest. Who are you serving by recording such an important meeting?” According to legal experts and observers, Erdoğan violated the basic principle of the presumption of innocence with his “quick conclusion” about Hizmet. It was not the first time he has linked Hizmet to some major unpleasant developments in the country without providing any proof. Many analysts have speculated that it is probably easiest for Erdoğan to find a “scapegoat” on whom to put the blame whenever he feels cornered by accusations of mismanagement, corruption or fraud. For example, when a major graft investigation became public on Dec. 17, 2014, Erdoğan quickly attributed the probe to the work of the “parallel state,” a reference he uses for the Hizmet movement. The Focus report confirmed last year's report by Der Spiegel, another German magazine, which claimed that the NSA was instructed by the US political leadership to gather information about the “intentions” of the Turkish leadership and to monitor Turkey's operations in 18 other key areas. The magazine examined documents from the archive of US whistleblower Edward Snowden. It stated that one NSA document calls Turkey “both a partner and target. … The very politicians, military officials and intelligence agency officials with whom US officials work closely when conducting actions against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) are also considered legitimate spying targets by the NSA,” it read. According to the report, the US has two secret branch offices that operate Special Collection Service listening stations in İstanbul and Ankara. Turkey is also placed at the level of Venezuela, even ahead of Cuba, in terms of US interest in intelligence gathering, according to a US document that establishes US intelligence priorities called the National Intelligence Priorities Framework (NIPF). This document is updated and presented to the US president every six months and an April 2013 edition of it lists Turkey as one of the countries most frequently targeted by Washington for surveillance. According to the NIPF, information about the “intentions” of the Turkish government is given the second-highest priority while information about the military and its infrastructure, foreign policy goals and energy security are given the third-highest priority rating. Conducive to this aim, the NSA began a broad surveillance operation in 2006 called the “Turkish Surge Project Plan” to infiltrate the computers of Turkey's top political leaders. “It took six months for the team to achieve its goal. One document celebrates the discovery of the ‘winning combination' and reports that collection had begun: ‘They achieved their first-ever computer network exploitation success against Turkish leadership!',” according to the report. The Turkish Embassy in Washington and Turkey's UN representation in New York were also the target of spying. A classified document from 2010 states that the NSA monitored the Turkish Embassy in Washington under a program codenamed "Powder." A similar project for monitoring Turkey's representation to the United Nations carried the name "Blackhawk,” according to Der Spiegel. “Analysts had access to the telephone system in the Turkish Embassy and could tap content directly from computers. In addition, they infected computer systems used by the diplomats with spyware. The NSA also installed Trojan software at Turkey's UN representation in New York. According to the NSA document, it even has the capability of copying entire hard drives at the UN mission,” read the report. Focus's attribution of secret recording of high-level security meeting at the Turkish Foreign Ministry to the NSA was made within the report, which also unveiled how MİT set up a network of spies in Germany. It covered the indictment of Turkish national Muhammet Taha Gergerlioğlu, one of three Turks against whom the Federal Attorney General of Germany filed spying charges in May. Gergerlioğlu, an adviser of Erdoğan, ran the other defendants as agents. The three reportedly collected information on people of Turkish origin living in Germany who were critical of the Turkish government. Turkish spies in Germany are said to have been ordered to spy on Erdoğan's opponents in Germany, including members of the Kurdish minority, the Gülen movement and other Turkish nationals in Germany who were critical of the Turkish leadership. According to court documents, the goal of the espionage group was to track and spy on Turkish and Kurdish dissidents who were then to be detained upon their return to Turkey. In late April 2014, defendant Ahmet Duran Y. told Gergerlioğlu that one of the "instigators" against Erdoğan would soon go to Turkey. Gergerlioğlu, who was always referred to as "big brother" or "governor," pledged to "finish him immediately" after entering Turkey. Gergerlioğlu and his team were allegedly sent to Germany by MİT head Fidan. In 2011, Gergerlioğlu was reportedly sent by Fidan with a fund of 25,000 euros to launch a consulting company for German-Turkish companies in the city of Bad Dürkheim with Göksel G. ===== In his first public statement following the June 7 general elections that dashed his hopes of becoming Turkey’s sole leader, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blasted the Syrian Kurds, and their nominal allies the United States, after they defeated the Islamic State (IS) in the northern Syrian town of Tell Abyad. Summary⎙ Print The Turkish military is concerned a military engagement in northern Syria has no international support. AuthorSemih IdizPosted July 1, 2015 “Look at the West that is striking Arabs and Turkmens in Tell Abyad and regretfully placing the terrorist groups PYD [Democratic Union Party] and PKK [Kurdistan Workers Party] in their place. … How can we consider this West to be honest?” Erdogan said, referring to the air support the United States was giving to the Syrian Kurdish PYD fighting against IS. The PKK has been waging a long-standing armed campaign for Kurdish autonomy in Turkey, for which it has been designated as a terrorist group by Ankara and Washington. It is also fighting against IS in northern Syria. Erdogan upped the ante June 27 and said Turkey would not allow any attempts to establish a Kurdish entity in northern Syria. “We will never allow a state to be established in northern Syria and in the south of our country. No matter what the cost, we will continue our struggle in this regard,” Erdogan said. He added that Turkey would allow attempts to change the region’s demography, a reference to claims that the PYD is ethnically cleansing Tell Abyad, and other areas captured from IS, of Arabs and Turkmens. Erdogan’s remarks were followed by a slew of reports in the media indicating that the Turkish military acting on orders from the government had prepared contingency plans to enter Syria and establish a buffer zone along the Turkish border of 100 kilometers (62 miles) long and 10-15 kilometers (6-9 miles) wide. These reports cited officials who argue that this will not only meet Turkey’s security requirements, but also establish a safe haven for Syrian refugees who continue to flood into Turkey. They also say it will enable Turkey to contribute more effectively to the fight against IS, thus belying claims in the Western media that Ankara is aiding such groups. Given Erdogan’s angry remarks, many believe this intervention’s main purpose is to prevent Syrian Kurds from establishing a contiguous zone in the region. Turkey’s buffer zone would fall between the Kurdish town of Kobani and Jarablus to its west, which the Kurds want to capture from IS. Although it is opposed to any Kurdish entity along Turkey’s borders, the Turkish military is said to be wary of being dragged by the government into a military adventure in Syria. Reports from the Chief of General Staff’s office leaked to the media indicate that the top brass wants Ankara to consider the international ramifications of an engagement in a complex and multilayered conflict. Serpil Cevikcan, a journalist for Milliyet who is in close contact with the military, has cited military sources who say they are ready to carry out any order from the government, but express concern about the diplomatic consequences. “The Chief of General Staff’s office has conveyed its view that for such a directive to be successful, the political, military and diplomatic infrastructure has to be established in such a way as to allay all risks that may emerge,” Cevikcan wrote in her column. She said the military wants the matter to be discussed not just with the United States, but also with Russia and Iran and the regime in Damascus, which seems unlikely given that Ankara has burned all its bridges with the Syrian regime. It is also a foregone conclusion that Moscow and Tehran would oppose a buffer zone established by Turkey in Syria, having expressed their opposition to this in the past. Retired Ambassador Umit Pamir, a member of the Global Relations Forum, also believes that entering Syria without approval from the United Nations, or the approval of a strong coalition of countries, is risky. He nevertheless believes that Moscow and Tehran can be convinced of the merits of such an operation if it is mounted against IS. But this requires Ankara to prioritize the fight against IS, which it has not done to date. “Turkey has to work with an international coalition, otherwise it will result in serious complications,” Pamir told Al-Monitor. Washington, for its part, appears unenthusiastic about a step by Turkey that many believe would be against the Kurds. Asked about the buffer zone Turkey is said to be planning in Syria, Mark Toner, a deputy spokesman for the State Department, told reporters June 29 that Washington’s position had not changed. “The creation and enforcement of a no-fly zone or any other military enforced zone presents significant challenges. … They include military, financial, but also humanitarian challenges that we need to obviously consider in the broader context,” Toner said. He added that they “don’t have any ground truth” on the reported plans by Turkey. “All we’ve seen, frankly, are press reports,” he said. Deniz Zeyrek, a veteran journalist who works for Hurriyet, indicates that the military is also concerned about mounting an operation on the orders of a caretaker government that lost its parliamentary majority in the June 7 elections. “The armed forces say that when the government’s directive is carried out there will have to be responsibility for the negative situations and risks that may emerge, and expect this to rest with the new government,” Zeyrek wrote June 27. Retired Brig. Gen. Armagan Kuloglu, a commentator on military matters, is among those who see no advantages to an operation in Syria. “Three objectives are mentioned for such an operation: to prevent IS or the PYD from gaining control of areas bordering Turkey, and to establish a safe haven for refugees. But we have multiple enemies here, and it is not clear who we are supposed to fight,” Kuloglu told Al-Monitor. He also pointed to complications if international support for this operation is not obtained. These considerations appear to have little sway on Erdogan and journalists who act as his unofficial spokesmen. Ibrahim Karagul, the editor-in-chief of Yeni Safak, who believes that the PYD is more dangerous than IS, said there is a grand design to establish a Kurdish corridor to carry oil from Kurdish northern Iraq to the Mediterranean over Syria. “The aim is to make a lasting change to the map of the entire region and to restrict countries like Turkey that have an extraordinary power to influence developments. … If successful, this will be the biggest trap set for Turkey since the invasion of Iraq,” Karagul claimed, arguing this must be prevented at all costs. Meanwhile, there are those who say Erdogan does not have the authority to declare what amounts to a “casus belli,” and point out that this authority rests with the parliament. Ibrahim Kaboglu, a professor of constitutional law, says that under the present constitution the president can only give such a directive if parliament is not sitting and there is a sudden attack on the country. “This is not the case today and so the power to give such orders rests with the Grand National Assembly,” Kaboglu told daily Cumhuriyet. The June 7 elections produced a hung parliament that is unlikely to authorize such an invasion given that opposition parties are opposed to this. Opinion polls have also shown consistently that a large portion of the Turkish public is opposed to any entanglement in Syria. There are also those who claim that Erdogan wants an intervention in Syria to divert attention away from the Justice and Development Party’s election losses and to engineer a situation suited to his political ambitions. Such speculations aside, the National Security Council — an advisory board headed by the president and comprising the prime minister, relevant ministers and senior military officials — made a statement after it met June 29 that Turkey is not on the verge of any immediate action with regard to Syria. It merely indicated Turkey was “following developments in Syria with concern.” Given the confusing and seemingly intractable situation in Syria, this appears to be all that Ankara can do at the moment if it does not want to enter a fray from which it is unlikely to extricate itself unscarred. Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/07/turkey-syria-military-intervention-no-international-support.html#ixzz3f1CtdXQO

Islamic State seize 100 Iraqi tribesmen before battle for Tikrit

Islamic State seize 100 Iraqi tribesmen before battle for Tikrit Wed, Feb 25 10:18 AM EST image By Ahmed Rasheed BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Islamic State fighters have abducted 100 Sunni Muslim tribesmen near the city of Tikrit, local tribal leaders said on Wednesday, apparently to neutralize suspected opponents before a widely expected army offensive. Iraqi soldiers and pro-government Shi'ite militias have been massing for days in preparation for an attack on Islamic State strongholds along the Tigris River to the north and south of Tikrit, hometown of executed former president Saddam Hussein. Tikrit, about 150 km (95 miles) north of Baghdad, has been controlled by the Sunni Muslim radicals since they swept through northern Iraq in June, scattering Iraq's security forces. Tribal leaders said Islamic State fighters had detained 42 Sunni tribesmen in the village of Rubaidha on Tuesday whom they suspected of being ready to take up arms against them. "They broke into the houses and asked for mobiles," said Hatam al-Obeidi, a Rubaidha resident who escaped to the town of Tuz Khurmatu on Wednesday. "They were checking everything in the mobiles that might show that the owner is against them," he said, adding that his own telephone had been returned to him after a gunman told him he was "clean". Last week, insurgents detained 56 men accused of belonging to a government-backed Sunni militia, said Abu Kareem al-Obeidi, who left Rubaidha for the neighboring Diyala province to avoid abduction. The militants initially set up a headquarters in Rubaidha, about 20 km (12 miles) north of Tikrit, after their June offensive, but pulled out after army helicopters mistakenly bombed the house of the local sheikh beside their base. The sheikh then asked the militants to leave, residents said. Iraq's military said around 2,000 Shi'ite militia fighters, known as the Popular Mobilisation, had arrived near Tikrit in preparation for a major operation against Islamic State. Raed Jabouri, governor of Tikrit's Salahuddin province, said on Tuesday that 5,000 fighters from the security forces and the Popular Mobilisation - formed last year with Iranian support after the rout of the army - would join "the operation to liberate Tikrit". Witnesses said the militants had on Wednesday blocked three main entrances to the south, west and north of Tikrit with 4-metre (12-foot) concrete blast walls. They also covered a bridge across the Tigris with about 1 meter (three feet) of sand in the hope of absorbing the impact of bombs. The witnesses saw a stream of SUV vehicles, apparently containing detainees, heading north toward the northern, Islamic State-controlled city of Mosul. After months of air strikes by the United States and its Western and Arab allies, Islamic State is on the defensive in several parts of the "caliphate" it declared in swathes of Iraq and Syria. In Diyala, adjoining Iran, officials say they have all but driven Islamic State out. (Additional reporting by Saif Hameed; Writing by Dominic Evans; Editing by Kevin Liffey) ================= Islamic State in Syria abducts at least 150 Christians Wed, Feb 25 16:30 PM EST image By Suleiman Al-Khalidi AMMAN (Reuters) - Islamic State militants have abducted at least 150 people from Assyrian Christian villages in northeastern Syria they had raided, Christian Syrian activists said on Tuesday. A Syrian Christian group representing several NGOs inside and outside the country said it had verified at least 150 people missing, including women and the elderly, who had been kidnapped by the militants. "We have verified at least 150 people who have been adducted from sources on the ground," Bassam Ishak, president of the Syriac National Council of Syria, whose family itself is from Hasaka, told Reuters from Amman. Earlier the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 90 were abducted when the militants carried out dawn raids on rural villages inhabited by the ancient Christian minority west of Hasaka, a city mainly held by the Kurds. The United States condemned the attacks in Hasaka and called for the immediate and unconditional release of the civilians taken captive. The State Department said hundreds of others remain trapped in villages surrounded by Islamic State fighters in violence that has displaced more than 3,000 people. "ISIL’s latest targeting of a religious minority is only further testament to its brutal and inhumane treatment of all those who disagree with its divisive goals and toxic beliefs," spokeswoman Jen Psaki said in a statement, using an acronym for Islamic State. Psaki added that Syrians are also threatened by President Bashar al-Assad's intensified bombings and air strikes in an "unrelenting campaign of terror." Syrian Kurdish militia launched two offensives against the militants in northeast Syria on Sunday, helped by U.S.-led air strikes and Iraqi peshmerga. This part of Syria borders territory controlled by Islamic State in Iraq, where it committed atrocities last year against the Yazidi religious minority. Islamic State did not confirm the kidnappings. Supporters posted photos online of the group's fighters in camouflage attire looking at maps and firing machine guns. The website said the photos were from Tel Tamr, a town near where the Observatory said the abductions occurred. Many Assyrian Christians have emigrated in the nearly four-year-long conflict in which more than 200,000 have people have been killed. Before the arrival of Kurds and Arab nomadic tribes at the end of the 19th century, Christians formed the majority in Syria's Jazeera area, which includes Hasaka. Sunday's offensive by Kurdish YPG militia reached within five km (3 miles) of Tel Hamis, an Islamic State-controlled town southeast of Qamishli, the Observatory said. At least 14 IS fighters died in the offensive, in which Assyrians fought alongside Kurds, it added. Eight civilians were also killed in heavy shelling by the Kurdish side, which seized several Arab villages from Islamic State control. Last year, Islamic State fighters abducted several Assyrians in retaliation for some of them fighting alongside the YPG. Most were released after long negotiations. RELIEVING PRESSURE Military experts said militants were trying to open a new front to relieve pressure on Islamic State after several losses since being driven from the Syrian town of Kobani near the border with Turkey. "Islamic State are losing in several areas so they want to wage an attack on a new area," said retired Jordanian general Fayez Dwiri. Since driving IS from Kobani, Kurdish forces, backed by other Syrian armed groups, have pursued the group's fighters as far as their provincial stronghold of Raqqa. A resident of Hasaka, jointly held by the Syrian government and the Kurds, said hundreds of families had arrived in recent days from surrounding Christian villages and Arab Bedouins were arriving from areas along the border. "Families are coming to Hasaka seeking safety," said Abdul Rahman al-Numai, a textile trader said by telephone. (Additional reporting by Oliver Holmes in Beirut, Doina Chiacu in Washington; Editing by Tom Heneghan and Eric Walsh) ==================== UPDATE 1-Gunmen in Afghanistan halt buses, seize 30 passengers Tue, Feb 24 08:04 AM EST (Adds Kabul truck bomb) By Sarwar Amani KANDAHAR, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Unidentified gunmen in southern Afghanistan stopped two buses traveling to the capital, Kabul, and seized around 30 people belonging to the ethnic Hazara minority, a bus company official said on Tuesday. Hazaras, who largely follow the Shi'ite sect of Islam, were persecuted by the Taliban during the 1990s, when the militant Sunni Islamists ruled most of Afghanistan. Outbreaks of sectarian violence have been rare since the Taliban were ousted by an American-led invasion in 2001, but many Hazaras continue to complain of discrimination and harassment by majority Sunni Muslim groups. The passengers were forced to leave the buses late on Monday night, after producing documents that showed they belonged to the Shi'ite minority group. "Our drivers stopped for the gunmen because they were in army uniform. They asked for documents," Nasir Ahmad, one of the bus company's managers, said in the southern city of Kandahar. "According to other passengers, most of the people abducted were Hazaras." The Taliban, now leading an increasingly violent insurgency against the government and its foreign backers, did not immediately claim responsibility but said they were investigating. The fate of the missing passengers was unknown, said Ghulum Jilani Sakhi, the deputy police chief of Zabul province, where Monday's abduction took place. "We are investigating where these people have been taken," he added. In a similar incident last July, Taliban militants stopped two minibuses in the central province of Ghor and shot dead 14 passengers identified as belonging to the Hazara group. Police on Tuesday were also investigating the suspected premature detonation of a truck bomb on the outskirts of the Afghan capital, which officials felt had been intended for the heavily guarded city centre. Glass shards from broken windows injured a bakery shop worker but no other civilian casualties were reported, said Hashmat Stanikzai, a spokesman for Kabul's police chief. Police had found six dismembered hands believed to have belonged to insurgents aboard the truck, but they had been unable to match them and determine how many individuals were involved, he added. (Additional reporting by Mirwais Harooni in Kabul; Writing by Jessica Donati; Editing by Clarence Fernandez) ========================= IS’ leader assassinated from within Iraq's Hadi al-Ameri being very forthright about his view of Iran's Khamenei as the supreme leader for all Shia here: It was expected that the disputes among the ranks of the Islamic State (IS) in Qalamoun would lead to the dismissal of its emir Abu Aisha al-Banyasi, as he was at odds with Abu al-Walid al-Maqdisi. However, the dismissal was not expected to come in the form of a killing. IS members have been drifting apart in Qalamoun, Syria, as disputes among top commanders have been escalating, leading to the dismissal of one emir and the probable assassination of another. Author Abdullah Suleiman Ali Posted February 24, 2015 Translator Steffi Chakti Original Articleاقرا المقال الأصلي باللغة العربية As-Safir revealed in an article published days ago the brittleness of the internal structure of IS in Qalamoun. Disputes among commanders were escalating, leading to the dismissal of the previous emir Abu al-Huda al-Talli and the assignment of Banyasi instead. Explosion rattles windows in Kabul's diplomatic quarter Wed, Feb 25 23:06 PM EST KABUL (Reuters) - An explosion rattled windows in the diplomatic quarter of the heavily fortified Afghan capital on Thursday morning, sending the city's embassies onto high alert. "This is a security announcement: there has been an explosion inside the city," the British embassy broadcast to staff on its compound. Further details on the location of blast were not immediately available. (Reporting by Jessica Donati; Editing by Douglas Busvine) 04:33 Embassies on high alert in Kabul after explosion rattles windows Embassies in Kabul are on high alert after an explosion shook the windows of buildings in the diplomatic quarter of Afghanistan’s capital on Thursday morning, Reuters reported. “This is a security announcement: there has been an explosion inside the city,” the British embassy broadcast to staff inside the building. The exact location of the blast is being determined. ==== As-Safir was able to secure information from a member of IS in Qalamoun’s media team who affirmed that the assignment of Banyasi did not solve the problem, and his dismissal was expected at any moment. However, and despite the gloomy situation the member depicted — describing it as a "crisis of hypocrisy" and saying that "disputes are not among individuals but are much deeper" — the dramatic escalation leading to the killing of Banyasi was not foreseen. Disputes revolved around the stand vis-à-vis Jabhat al-Nusra, especially after the arrival of Maqdisi and the issuance of a statement accusing Jabhat al-Nusra of treason and betrayal. A number of IS commanders refused to follow the lead of Maqdisi. As a result, two camps emerged, and entered in fierce conflicts. After apologizing to the commander of Jabhat al-Nusra in Qalamoun, Abu Malik al-Talli, for Maqdisi's statement, Abu al-Huda al-Talli was the first to pay the price. Subsequently, Abu Malik al-Talli was dismissed and replaced by Banyasi. Information indicates that Maqdisi was the one to name Banyasi as a replacement, based on his composure and neutrality toward the dispute that erupted over Jabhat al-Nusra. Easily convinced and influenced, Maqdisi believed Banyasi to be the best candidate. Maqdisi ended up surprised, however. Upon assuming the position, Banyasi proved no different than his predecessor, refusing to act against Jabhat al-Nusra and its commander. He also refused to take escalatory measures against the organization. This raised the ire of Maqdisi, who started to think about ousting Banyasi. At the same time, an incident took place that may have pushed the personal sensitivity between the two men to its zenith, rendering any reconciliation impossible. Maqdisi had a quarrel with Jabhat al-Nusra checkpoint guards, which ended up with his arrest and that of his guards. Banyasi mediated with Abu Malik al-Talli to release them, and indeed, he responded and Maqdisi was released a few hours later. However, following the incident, the dispute between Maqdisi and Banyasi became further entrenched and a few days later, the killing of Banyasi came as a shock to everyone. IS remained silent about the death of Banyasi and tried to keep it low profile. It was leaked that Banyasi was killed by a regime-led airstrike. However, it was not long until it was revealed that the killing resulted from internal disputes. Although some IS media figures are still trying to deny it, saying that the rumored news is yet another media propaganda barrage the organization has been facing since its inception, they were not able to give a clear answer about the true details of the killing. They hid behind the pretext that they were not able to communicate with their leadership to fact check the information. According to information leaked a couple of days ago by Jabhat al-Nusra media spokespeople, who publicly celebrated the death of Banyasi, the dispute between Maqdisi and Banyasi reached a deadlock. This happened after Maqdisi issued a fatwa against Banyasi due to his amicable ties with Jabhat al-Nusra, which was clearly shown through the mediation he made with its commander to release Maqdisi. Some Jabhat al-Nusra spokespeople noted that Banyasi had a "calm temper and was loved by everyone." Such a personality did not match the aspirations of Maqdisi, who wanted a spiteful person who can be influenced by his takfiri penchants. This is why it was imperative to get rid of him. Regardless of the details of the killing and who the perpetrators are, whether Maqdisi or Abu Balqiss (the military emir of IS), the incident will inevitably constitute a new twist of events not in the restructuring of IS but on the level of the developments in Qalamoun. This is particularly true concerning relations between IS and Jabhat al-Nusra and its repercussions on the battles fought against the Syrian army and Hezbollah. Will this incident constitute the first step toward the collapse of IS in Qalamoun or a catalyst for commanders to give up on Syrian nationals and hand the emirate over to "foreigners" with all the ensuing extremism toward other parties? On another note, Turkish forces entered Syrian territory and went as deep as 30 kilometers (19 miles) under the pretext of moving the remains of Suleiman Shah, the grandfather of the founder of the Ottoman Empire. Relying on an agreement concluded with the French mandate as a pretext, Turkish authorities occupied Syrian land near the border to bury the remains before returning them to their initial location [at some future point in time]. However, it seems that the goal of Turkey is far from just restoring the remains and occupying the land. Such a move seems to be aimed at ending the aspirations of Kurds for an autonomous government in the areas under Turkish control. Moreover, Turkish authorities are preparing for the likelihood of IS launching an attack after Turkey signed an agreement with the United States to train "moderate" Syrian armed individuals in order to attack IS and other terrorist groups in Syria. Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2015/02/qalaoum-is-emir-ousted.html##ixzz3SolV4AQx ==========

Special Report: How Mosul fell - An Iraqi general disputes Baghdad's story

Special Report: How Mosul fell - An Iraqi general disputes Baghdad's story Tue, Oct 14 06:35 AM EDT image 1 of 4 By Ned Parker, Isabel Coles and Raheem Salman BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Lieutenant General Mahdi Gharawi knew an attack was coming. In late May, Iraqi security forces arrested seven members of militant group Islamic State in Mosul and learned the group planned an offensive on the city in early June. Gharawi, the operational commander of Nineveh province, of which Mosul is the capital, asked Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's most trusted commanders for reinforcements. With Iraq's military overstretched, the senior officers scoffed at the request. Diplomats in Baghdad also passed along intelligence of an attack, only to be told that Iraqi Special Forces were in Mosul and could handle any scenario. On June 4, federal police in Mosul under Gharawi's command cornered Islamic State's military leader in Iraq, who blew himself up rather than surrendering. Gharawi hoped the death might avert an attack. He was wrong. At 2:30 a.m. on June 6, Gharawi and his men returned to their operations room after an inspection of checkpoints in the city of two million. At that moment, convoys of pickup trucks were advancing from the west, driving across the desert that straddles Iraq's border with Syria. Each vehicle held up to four IS fighters. The convoys shot their way through the two-man checkpoints into the city. By 3:30 a.m., the militants were fighting inside Mosul. Within three days the Iraqi army would abandon the country's second-biggest city to its attackers. The loss triggered a series of events that continues to reshape Iraq months later. It unleashed a two-day charge by IS to within 95 miles (153 km) of Baghdad that caused the collapse of four Iraqi divisions and the capture or deaths of thousands of soldiers. It helped drive Maliki from office. And it pushed Western powers and Gulf Arab nations into launching air strikes on the Islamist militants in both Iraq and Syria. But how Mosul was lost, and who gave the order to abandon the fight, have, until now, been unclear. There has been no official version: only soldiers' stories of mass desertions and claims by infantry troops that they followed orders to flee. In June, Maliki accused unnamed regional countries, commanders and rival politicians of plotting the fall of Mosul, but has since remained quiet. Nevertheless, Baghdad has pinned the blame on Gharawi. In late August, he was charged by the defense ministry with dereliction of duty. He is now awaiting the findings of an investigative panel and then a military trial. If found guilty, he could be sentenced to death. (Four federal police officers who served under Gharawi are also in custody awaiting trial, and could not be reached.) Parliament also plans to hold hearings into the loss of Mosul. An investigation by Reuters shows that higher-level military officials and Maliki himself share at least some of the blame. Several of Iraq's senior-most commanders and officials have detailed for the first time how troop shortages and infighting among top officers and Iraqi political leaders played into Islamic State's hands and fueled panic that led to the city's abandonment. Maliki and his defense minister made an early critical mistake, they say, by turning down repeated offers of help from the Kurdish fighting force known as the peshmerga. Gharawi's role in the debacle is a matter of debate. A member of the country's dominant Shi'ite sect, he alienated Mosul's Sunni majority before the battle, according to the provincial governor and many citizens. That helped give rise to IS sleeper cells inside Mosul. One Iraqi officer under his command faulted Gharawi for not rallying the troops for a final stand. For his part, Gharawi says he stood firm, and did not give the final order to abandon the city. Others involved in the battle endorse that claim and say Gharawi fought until the city was overrun. It was only then that he fled. Gharawi says three people could have given the final order: Aboud Qanbar, at the time the defense ministry's deputy chief of staff; Ali Ghaidan, then commander of the ground forces; or Maliki himself, who personally directed his most senior officers from Baghdad. The secret of who decided to abandon Mosul, Gharawi says, lies with these three men. Gharawi says a decision by Ghaidan and Qanbar to leave Mosul's western bank sparked mass desertions as soldiers assumed their commanders had fled. A senior Iraqi military official backs that assertion. None of the three men have commented publicly on their decisions in Mosul. Maliki has declined Reuters requests for an interview for this article. Qanbar has not responded, while Ghaidan could not be reached. Lieutenant General Qassim Atta, a military spokesman with close ties to Maliki, told Reuters last week that Gharawi "above all others ... failed in his role as commander." The rest, he said, "will be revealed before the judiciary." In many ways, Gharawi's story is a window into Iraq. The Shi'ite general has been a key figure since 2003, when the Shi'ites began gaining power after the United States toppled Saddam Hussein and his Sunni-dominated Baath Party. Shi'ite leaders once saluted Gharawi as a hero, while Sunnis see him as a murderer who used Iraq's war on extremism as a cover for extorting money from businesses and menacing innocent people with arrests and killings. Gharawi rose through a military riven by sectarian splits, corruption and politics. He is now trapped by those same forces. The decision to punish him and ignore the role of higher-level figures shows not just that rebuilding the military will be difficult, but also why the country risks breakup. As Mosul proved, the Iraqi army is a failed institution at the heart of a failing state. Gharawi, in his own telling, has become a scapegoat, a victim of the deal-making and alliances that keep Iraq's political and military elite in place. Ghaidan and Qanbar, longtime confidantes of Maliki, have been dispatched to a pensioned retirement. Gharawi, who is living in his home town in the south of Iraq, says his bosses are pinning the faults of a broken system on him. "They want just to save themselves from these accusations," he told Reuters during a visit to Baghdad two weeks ago. "The investigation should include the highest commanders and leadership ... Everyone should say what they have, so the people know." ROAD TO MOSUL Gharawi expected Mosul to be hell. In the years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, the city had become an epicenter for the al Qaeda and Sunni insurgency. Former Baathists and military commanders lived in the province of Nineveh. The Kurds also had a foothold in the city; after Saddam's fall they came to dominate the security forces and local government. In 2008, two years after he became prime minister, Maliki began to assert his power there. Seeing the Kurds as potentially disloyal, he began to purge Kurdish officers from Mosul's two army divisions and insert his own men to protect Baghdad's interests. He appointed a string of commanders who antagonised local Kurds and Sunnis. In 2011, he tapped Gharawi. The general was already a survivor of Iraq's political system. Despite the fact he was a Shi'ite, he had been a member of Saddam's Republican Guard. In 2004, after Saddam's fall, Washington had backed Gharawi to lead one of Iraq's new National Police Divisions. It was a brutal period. The Shi'ite-dominated security forces – including the police – were connected to a spate of extrajudicial killings. The Americans accused Gharawi of running his police brigades as a front for Shi'ite militias blamed for the murder of hundreds of people, mostly Sunnis. U.S. and Iraqi officials investigated Gharawi for his command of Site Four, a notorious Baghdad jail where prisoners were allegedly tortured or sold to one of the biggest and most brutal Shi'ite militias. In late 2006, U.S. officials moved to stop the killings, pressuring Maliki to dismiss Gharawi and try him for torture. Maliki reassigned Gharawi but would not try him. U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker recalled a near shouting match with Maliki over the general. "One of my many disappointments was not getting that sorry-assed failure," Crocker said in 2010. Gharawi says he did nothing wrong during that period and has nothing to apologize for. It was civil war, he said. The Sunni insurgency was bent on demolishing the Shi'ite-led government. Gharawi's brother was killed by Sunni militants. "We worked under special circumstances. We prevented civil war. We actually stopped it. Where are our mistakes?" LEOPARD SKIN AND A WARNING After his demotion, Gharawi bided his time, a gloomy figure in his dim-lit Green Zone villa, decorated with old photos, including a few of him with U.S. senators and Donald Rumsfeld. He was given a series of minor jobs. Maliki's office regularly proposed him for higher positions only to be blocked by U.S. officials. As the U.S. military prepared to leave Iraq, Maliki appointed Gharawi the top federal police commander in Mosul. There, Gharawi recaptured his glory. State television showed him standing on Nineveh's sweeping plains in blue camouflage as he announced a successful operation against a terror plot. Maliki rewarded him with property in an affluent Baghdad neighborhood. In his house in the capital on a short leave from Mosul last December, Gharawi sat proudly on a leafy green couch, surrounded by cream-coloured walls, a faux leopard skin rug, and shiny tiled floors. An oil portrait of himself hung on the wall. He bragged about arrests and flipped through pictures of jihadists his men had captured. Despite his triumphs, he was frank about the insurgency that re-emerged last year as Sunnis grew frustrated with Maliki's sectarian rule. The war was at best a stalemate, Gharawi said. Al Qaeda – the Islamic State's parent organization at the time, before it split this year – was gaining ground. "I have to confess, al Qaeda is stronger than they have ever been. Qaeda needs Mosul. They think of Mosul as their emirate," he said. Gharawi said he lacked the troops to secure the province. He also faced growing opposition from Sunnis in Mosul, who accused him and his men of extra-judicial killings, allegations Gharawi rejected. In March, Maliki appointed him Nineveh's operational commander. Security in Iraq was deteriorating. In Anbar province, to Nineveh's southwest, violence had drawn in three military divisions against IS militants and angry Sunni tribes. The government had lost control of the highways from Baghdad to the north. IS militants regularly set up fake checkpoints and ambushed vehicles. THE FALL As IS fighters raced towards Mosul before dawn on June 6, the jihadists hoped only to take a neighborhood for several hours, one of them later told a friend in Baghdad. They did not expect state control to crumble. They hurtled into five districts in their hundreds, and would, over the next few days, reach over 2,000 fighters, welcomed by the city's angry Sunni residents. The first line of Mosul's defense was the sixth brigade of the Third Iraqi army division. On paper, the brigade had 2,500 men. The reality was closer to 500. The brigade was also short of weapons and ammunition, according to one non-commissioned officer. Infantry, armor and tanks had been shifted to Anbar, where more than 6,000 soldiers had been killed and another 12,000 had deserted. It left Mosul with virtually no tanks and a shortage of artillery, according to Gharawi. There was also a problem with ghost soldiers – men on the books who paid their officers half their salaries and in return did not show up for duty. Investigators from the defense ministry had sent a report on the phenomenon to superiors in 2013. Nothing was heard back, a sergeant who was based in Mosul told Reuters. In all, there were supposed to be close to 25,000 soldiers and police in the city; the reality, several local officials and security officers say, was at best 10,000. In the district of Musherfa, one of the city's main entry points, there were just 40 soldiers on duty the night of June 6. As the militants infiltrated the city, they seized military vehicles and weapons. The sergeant based there said they also hanged soldiers and lit them ablaze, crucified them, and torched them on the hoods of Humvees. On the western edge of Tamoz 17 neighborhood, police from the fourth battalion saw two Humvees and 15 pickup trucks approach, spraying machine gun fire. "In my entire battalion we have one machine gun. In each pickup they had one," said head of the battalion, Colonel Dhiyab Ahmed al-Assi al-Obeidi. Gharawi ordered his forces to form a defensive line to cordon off the besieged western Mosul neighbourhoods from the Tigris River. Gharawi said he received a call from Maliki to hold things until the arrival of Qanbar, the deputy chief of staff at the defense ministry, and Ghaidan, who commanded Iraqi ground forces. Qanbar is a member of Maliki's tribe, while Ghaidan had long assisted Maliki in security operations, according to senior officers and Iraqi officials. The two men outranked Gharawi and automatically took formal charge of the Mosul command on June 7. On the morning of June 8, Gharawi met Nineveh governor Atheel Nujaifi. The governor was no friend – he had previously accused Gharawi of corruption, an allegation the general rejected. Now the city's fate hinged on Gharawi. One of Nujaifi's advisers asked the general why he had not counter-attacked. "There are not enough forces," Gharawi told them. General Babakir Zebari was Gharawi's superior and chief of staff for Iraq's armed forces back in Baghdad. He agrees there were not enough men to defeat the jihadists. And Maliki had already rejected a chance to change that. On June 7, Kurdistan President Massoud Barzani had offered to send Kurdish peshmerga fighters to help. The offer went all the way up to Maliki, who rejected it twice through his defense minister, according to Zebari. United Nations and U.S. diplomats also attempted to broker an arrangement acceptable to Maliki, who remained suspicious of the Kurds' intent. Maliki insisted there were more than enough Iraqi forces. Barzani's office confirmed Kurdish offers of help were rejected. On the afternoon of June 8, the Islamic State surged. More than 100 vehicles, carrying at least 400 men, had crossed to Mosul from Syria since the start of the battle. Sleeper cells hiding in the city had been activated and neighbourhoods rallied to them, according to police and military. The insurgents bombed a police station in the al-Uraybi neighborhood and charged into the area around the Mosul Hotel, an abandoned building on the western bank of the Tigris transformed into a battle post for 30 men from SWAT, an emergency police unit. Gharawi and his federal police pounded Islamic State-controlled areas with artillery. For a moment, "the morale of Mosul got higher," Gharawi said. Within hours, though, Gharawi's command was thrown into disarray. Multiple military sources say Ghaidan and Qanbar sacked a divisional commander after he refused to send men to defend the Mosul Hotel. The sacked general, who reported to Gharawi, theoretically commanded 6,000 men, though many were AWOL. General Zebari calls the order another huge mistake: "In crisis, you can't replace the commander." TURNING POINT By June 9, the fourth battalion's Colonel Obeidi and 40 of his men were among the very last local police fighting to hold back the jihadists in western Mosul. The rest had either joined the jihadists or run away. Just before 4:30 p.m., a military water tanker raced towards the Mosul Hotel where Obeidi and his men were stationed. The police fired at the tanker, which detonated, setting off a massive fireball and hurtling shrapnel. "I didn't feel anything," said Obeidi, whose leg was ripped open by the blast. "The sound shook the whole of Mosul but I didn't hear a thing." Clutching his handgun, Obeidi vowed to fight on. Police carried him to a boat to cross the Tigris to safety. Military officers, local officials, and even U.S. officials later testifying to Congress said the hotel attack was what broke the army and police in Mosul. After that, the defensive line in the west of the city melted away. Barely three hours later, as reports spread of federal police burning their camps and discarding their uniforms, the Nineveh governor and his adviser met with Qanbar and Ghaidan in the Operation Command near the airport. The adviser, Khaled al-Obeidi, was himself a retired general and a newly elected lawmaker. (He is unrelated to police Colonel Obeidi). He urged the commanders to go on the offensive with the Second Division, which sat relatively untouched across the river in eastern Mosul. Qanbar said that they had a plan. Nujaifi's adviser then urged Gharawi to attack. Gharawi said he could not risk moving the soldiers and federal police he had left. "We can get you the force," the adviser said. Qanbar interrupted. The governor and adviser should do their work, he said. "We will do ours." The governor and his adviser left the base at 8:25 p.m., unsure of what the military's plan was. Shortly before 9:30 p.m., Qanbar and Ghaidan told Gharawi they were withdrawing across the river. "They said goodbye and that's it. They didn't give me any information or any reason," Gharawi said. They stripped Gharawi of 46 men and 14 pickup trucks and Humvees – the bulk of his security detail – say Gharawi and other officers. The two senior generals moved the city's command to a base on the city's eastern edge, according to multiple accounts. Ghaidan and Qanbar's retreating convoy created the impression that Iraq's security forces were deserting, Gharawi said. "This is the straw that broke the camel's back. This was the biggest mistake." Soldiers assumed their leaders had fled and within a couple of hours most of the Second Division had deserted the city's east, Nujaifi, the governor, told Reuters. Gharawi and 26 of his men stayed hidden in their operations base in the west, which swarmed with insurgents. That night, Gharawi said, Ghaidan phoned him and assured him the army was holding eastern Mosul. Ghaidan and Qanbar both left Mosul overnight, arriving in Kurdistan on June 10, according to Zebari, the chief of staff back in Baghdad. "Of course once the commander leaves the soldier behind, why would you want to fight?" asked Zebari. "The senior commander is the brains of operation. Once he runs, the whole body is paralysed." Zebari says he doesn't know who gave the order to leave. Qanbar and Ghaidan were bypassing the defense ministry and reporting directly to Maliki, Zebari told Reuters. Early the next morning, Zebari rang Gharawi and urged him to leave the operation command center. "You are going to get killed. Please withdraw," both men remember Zebari saying. Gharawi refused and insisted he needed approval from Maliki's military office to leave. Soon after, Gharawi decided to fight his way across a bridge to eastern Mosul. He rang Ghaidan to tell him. "I am going to be killed. I am surrounded by all directions. Send the prime minister my greetings. Tell the prime minister I have done everything possible that I can do." He and his men crammed into five vehicles and headed across the river. On the east bank, their five vehicles were set ablaze. They dodged bullets and stones. Three of the men were shot dead. It was every man for himself, Gharawi said. In the east, Gharawi and three of his men commandeered an armoured vehicle with flat tires and headed north to safety. AFTERMATH By August, Gharawi was back in his ancestral home in southern Iraq, looking after his children, unsure what to do next. One day he received a call from a friend in the defense ministry: He was under investigation for dereliction of duty in Mosul. At the same time, Maliki promoted Qanbar and moved to protect Ghaidan. After the prime minister resigned on Aug. 15, though, the two men were also forced into retirement. It marked an effort by Haider al-Abadi, the new prime minister, to start to clean and rebuild the Iraqi forces. Abadi has closed the office Maliki used to direct commanders and has quietly retired officers seen as loyal to his predecessor. Purging the security institutions of their sectarianism, money-making schemes and political manoeuvrings will take years. And for now, Gharawi must take the blame for Mosul. Zebari believes that's unfair. "Gharawi was an officer doing a job, but his luck ran out just like many other officers," he said. "All of us have to shoulder some of the responsibility. Every one of us." Two weeks ago in Baghdad, face unshaven, voice hoarse, Gharawi indicated a begrudging acceptance of his fate, whatever it might be. "Maybe I'll be pardoned, maybe I'll be imprisoned, maybe I'll be hanged," he said. (Parker reported from Baghdad and Arbil, Salman from Baghdad, and Coles from Arbil; With additional reporting by Ahmed Rasheed and Saif Hameed in Baghdad; Edited by Simon ============== Islamic State forces 180,000 to flee in Iraq Mon, Oct 13 16:51 PM EDT image By Ahmed Rasheed BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Fighting in Iraq's western Anbar province has forced up to 180,000 people to flee since the city of Hit fell to Islamic State earlier this month, the United Nations said on Monday. Islamic State fighters extended that advance by overrunning a military base that the Iraqi army had abandoned 8 km (5 miles) west of Hit earlier on Monday, according to an army officer and members of a government-backed Sunni militia. Islamic State has been on the offensive in the desert province of Anbar, bordering Syria, in recent weeks, taking the town of Hit on Oct. 2 and nearby Kubaisa on Oct. 4. That has raised concerns in the West because it is close to Baghdad and demonstrates the group's reach; while operating successfully in Anbar, it is also on the verge of taking the strategic town of Kobani hundreds of miles away in northern Syria on the border with Turkey. In Baghdad, three bombs exploded in Shi'ite parts of the capital on Monday, killing 30 people, police and medical officials said, continuing a wave of attacks targeting Iraq's majority religious group. There was no claim of responsibility for the bombings, but Islamic State claimed a string of attacks in Baghdad on Sunday that left 45 dead. As a result of the fighting and air strikes in Anbar, carried out by the Iraqi government and a U.S.-led military coalition, up to 30,000 families or 180,000 individuals have fled Hit, the UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said. The war in Anbar and its conquest of Mosul have allowed Islamic State to hold territory from eastern Syria across Sunni parts of Iraq with the goal of establishing a caliphate. SUICIDE BOMBERS In northern Syria, three Islamic State fighters blew themselves up on Monday in Kobani, a monitoring group said, with the hardline militants making slight advances inside the besieged Kurdish town. In one of the attacks, an Islamic State fighter detonated a truck laden with explosives in a northern district of Kobani, which has been the scene of heavy clashes between Kurdish forces and Islamic State fighters, Kurdish sources said. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group reported more heavy fighting on Monday inside the city, where U.S.-led air strikes have so far failed to halt the militants' advance. Rami Abderahman of the Observatory said one of the suicide attacks targeted a bus station in the northwest of Kobani and that the group had taken around 50 percent of the town. "They now control the cultural center, which means they have advanced further inside the town," he said. The Observatory said there had been at least five U.S.-led strikes early on Monday, mainly targeting southern districts of Kobani, which is known as Ayn al-Arab in Arabic. Clashes also continued to the east, killing a dozen Islamic State fighters. The militant group wants to seize the town to consolidate a dramatic sweep across northern Iraq and Syria. The United States and Saudi Arabia launched eight air strikes on Sunday and Monday against Islamic State targets in Syria, including seven near Kobani, the U.S. military said. Four strikes southwest of Kobani hit Islamic State units and destroyed a machine gun firing position, while three strikes northeast of Kobani struck a militant unit and damaged a staging location and several buildings. Another strike hit an Islamic State garrison northwest of Raqqa, the military said. DENIAL In a blow to U.S. hopes, Turkey denied it had agreed to let the United States use its Incirlik air base in the fight against Islamic State, and sources at the Turkish prime minister's office said talks were continuing on the subject. Turkey had however reached an agreement with Washington on training Syrian rebels, the sources told reporters, without saying who would train the insurgents or where. The comments come after U.S. National Security Adviser Susan Rice said Turkey had agreed to let forces from a U.S.-led military coalition use its bases for activities inside Iraq and Syria and to train moderate Syrian rebels. Syria's air force meanwhile carried out strikes against rebels at more than double its usual rate on Monday, according to the Observatory. The intensified air strikes by President Bashar al-Assad's government will add to the fear among Assad's opponents that he is taking advantage of the U.S. strikes to crush other foes, including the "moderate opposition" that Washington backs. The United States says it does not want to help Assad's government despite bombing Islamic State, the most powerful group fighting against Damascus in a three-year-old civil war. Washington aims to help arm moderates to fight against both Assad and Islamic State. But within days of the start of U.S. air strikes in Syria last month, Assad's government stepped up the tempo of its own air campaign against rebels closer to the capital Damascus. The Observatory said the Syrian air force had struck 40 times on Monday in areas in Idlib and Hama provinces, including dropping oil drums packed with explosives and shrapnel. Typically Damascus has carried out no more than 12-20 raids a day. (Additional reporting by Ned Parker, a correspondent in Anbar, Tom Miles, Suleiman Al-Khalidi, Mariam Karouny, Jim Loney, Ozge Ozbilgin, Sylvia Westall; writing by Giles Elgood; editing by Philippa Fletcher) ============================================== Turkey Was an Unlikely Victim of an Equally Unlikely Coup The Interpreter By MAX FISHER and AMANDA TAUB JULY 16, 2016 Continue reading the main story Share This Page Photo People stand on a damaged military tank in Ankara on Saturday. Credit Emin Ozmen for The New York Times If the attempted coup in Turkey came as a surprise, there was good reason: The event went against decades of research on how, when and why coups happen. Friday night’s uprising appeared to diverge wildly from the usual patterns. And political scientists who study coups say Turkey should have been at little risk. Secretary of State John Kerry, reiterating support for Turkey’s government, expressed the bafflement felt by many observers. “It surprised everybody, including the people in Turkey,” Mr. Kerry said, adding, “I must say it does not appear to be a very brilliantly planned or executed event.” The gap between Turkey’s insurrection and other coups helps explain why the attempt failed. But it also underscores how many basic questions remain unanswered. Advertisement Continue reading the main story Not the kind of country at risk Coups are usually driven not solely by individual plotters, but also by structural factors. Political scientists, by tracking factors like economic trends, political freedoms and public health, have identified several predictive patterns. Jay Ulfelder, who works in the area of political forecasting, has developed a mathematical model that synthesizes this data to predict a country’s level of risk. Continue reading the main story Advertisement Continue reading the main story Turkey, said Mr. Ulfelder’s research, done in conjunction with the Early Warning Project, was a “very unlikely” candidate for a coup, he said in an email. It had only a 2.5 percent probability of an attempted coup, based on 2016 data. That placed it 56th out of 160 countries, between Laos and Iran, and was within a range considered stable. At-risk countries tend to have high rates of infant mortality, a common measurement of poverty, and poorly performing economies. Turkey’s economy has been growing, and infant mortality has been rapidly declining. Mr. Ulfelder has also found that a country is less likely to face a coup when there is armed conflict in nearby states, perhaps because of a rally-around-the-flag effect. Photo Turkish lawmakers at Parliament on Saturday. Poor planning was one reason the coup attempt in Turkey failed, experts said. Credit European Pressphoto Agency While Turkey has a history of coups, the country has changed considerably since its last, in 1997, and Mr. Ulfelder stressed that what mattered more was its nearly 20 years without one. Another crucial factor is what experts call elite fragmentation. If divisions open up among powerful elites — elected officials, business leaders, generals, judges and so on — their competition for resources and control can culminate in a coup. There is, as yet, no sign of such a split in Turkey. The growing economy gives elites reason to maintain the status quo. And while state institutions are imperfect and rates of corruption could be better — both factors that can lead elites to compete for resources — neither is bad enough to cause a crisis. Turkey also does not have the kind of social polarization that disaffected elites often exploit to push forward a coup. While the country’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, can be a polarizing figure in electoral politics, we do not see the kind of deeper divisions, with civil society groups rallying against the state, we might expect in advance of a coup. Advertisement Continue reading the main story Not what a coup looks like Research suggests that carrying out a successful coup is a bit like baking a cake: There is a recipe, and if you skip steps or leave out ingredients, you’ll almost certainly fail. Turkey’s plotters didn’t follow the recipe. Successful coups tend to be waged as “coordination games,” Naunihal Singh, a professor at the Air War College, wrote in the book “Seizing Power,” which examines why coups succeed or fail. Coups work, according to this theory, when leaders convince other officers and soldiers that their success is already assured. That makes joining an act of perceived self-interest. Plotters usually accomplish this with a predictable set of steps. A huge show of force demonstrates that the weight of the military is behind the coup. A public statement by one or more high-level public officials shows that there is elite support. And the plotters usually establish tight control over the media and the flow of public information, quashing any broadcasts that would undermine the sense of inevitable and unchallenged success. Successful coups in countries like Turkey, which have strong military and political institutions, typically follow an “institutional coup” model, according to Brian Klaas, a fellow at the London School of Economics. In an institutional coup, the military is unified behind the takeover and uses its full power to force top-down control over the government — as senior Turkish military leaders did in 1980. In that scenario, the coordination game is fairly simple. All of the coordination by the military elite happens before the coup even begins — and then other elites have little choice but to fall in line. Video Turkey Wakes Up to Aftermath of a Coup A failed coup attempt on Friday night has gripped Turkey. By Saturday morning, thousands of soldiers had been detained, accused of trying to overthrow the government, and civilians were left in a state of unease. By TURNER COWLES and MEGAN SPECIA on Publish Date July 16, 2016. Photo by Gokhan Tan/Getty Images. Watch in Times Video » embed When the uprising represents only a faction of officers, Mr. Klaas said, the confidence game can also require quickly seizing top leaders and persuading or forcing a senior officer to publicly declare the coup’s victory, creating an appearance of success before anyone figures out what happened. This time, Turkey’s dissident officers tried to take only some of these steps, and succeeded in none of them. Advertisement Continue reading the main story Rebels deployed tanks and air power in a show of force in Istanbul and Ankara, but this was not enough to intimidate the rest of the military, which eventually overcame them. Most notably, there was no public face of the coup to demonstrate elite support or issue a clear plan. The insurrectionists also tried but failed to control communication with the public. President Erdogan was able to use the FaceTime smartphone app to call a TV station, a bizarre scenario that risked the appearance of weakness but also sapped plotters’ momentum and allowed him to call for the public to flood the streets in opposition. Turkish internet and cellphone service remained in operation. This allowed the government to communicate on social media and helped news of pro-government protests spread, undermining the coup’s sense of inevitability. Unanswered questions Those protests — and the absence of visible pro-coup crowds — may have also been key to thwarting the plot. Successful coups will often exploit or even coordinate with pre-existing movements, using this show of popular support to rally elites. Turkey’s 1997 coup leaders, for example, worked with civil society groups and others who opposed the government. Egypt’s 2013 military takeover came amid mass protests against the government. This weekend’s coup leaders appeared to lack any allies. No civil society groups or political parties issued statements in support of the insurrection, and no elites appeared to take action on its behalf. That hindsight makes the coup seem so doomed only underscores some questions. It is still unclear what prompted the attempt, who led it, and why they believed they had enough chance at success to risk their lives. If history is any guide, the most straightforward explanation is simply poor planning and ineptitude.

Kidnappings, bombings hit Basra; IA Aviation Mil Mi-35 and IA Bell 407 helicopters downed by #IS with FN-6 MANPADS

IA Aviation Mil Mi-35 and IA Bell 407 helicopters downed by #IS with FN-6 MANPADS in the vicinity of Bayji: pic.twitter.com/9CTKHZqDW7

— MemlikPasha (@MemlikPasha) October 9, 2014 Basra federalists still have only 20K signatures demanding referendum for new federal region. Need more than 100K, goal not reached in 2009. #Basra federalist leader promises constitution for new federal region in oil-rich south of #Iraq before referendum #BREAKING Rosneft scraps purchase of Morgan Stanley's oil trading business IA Aviation Mil Mi-35 and IA Bell 407 helicopters downed by #IS with FN-6 MANPADS in the vicinity of Bayji: The Chinese FN-6 is an updated version of the Russian 9K38 Igla-S MANPADS. FN-6 send by Saudi for FSA... Now we are sure that no further advanced weapons will be sent to them. I wait for the TOW Missille in the hand of ISIS...US aircraft at Kobane operate well over the maximum range of the MANPADS. ISIS need SA-3(S125PechoraM)available in Latakia/Tartous/Damascus &othr #ASAAD basis,accordng to IISS(2010) #Kweris had some but was not taken by #ISIS. These have a ceiling of 59k feet,FN6 are based on SA16/18(9K38)not on SA24 and have 12kfeet ceiling hat could be the reason for the absence of manpads at kobane?? Limited no.s only or kept for something big? A family photo of sorts for #MANPADS, good for comparison: http://imgur.com/gallery/KFH6b04 @MemlikPasha 2013-06-01 Panorama of Alasala Watanmia Front in Aleppo Syria by jurassicbark Background on this group and their MANPADS: "9K338 Igla-S (SA-24) and other MANPADS in Syria" via armsresearch.org by N.R. Jenzen-Jones I made this panorama from video after seeing the group deploy one of the MANPADS today. Most notable is the various anti-air missile systems displayed: 9K32M Strela-2M , Chinese FN-6, 9K338 Igla-S, 9K310 Igla-1. =========== To stem extremists, Iraq to reduce Baghdad's power By SAMEER N. YACOUB and VIVIAN SALAMA Oct. 10, 2014 3:26 AM EDT Mideast Iraq Decentralization In this Saturday, Sept. 27, 2014 photo,Basra residents chant slogans supporting the creation of... BAGHDAD (AP) — To get a home or an office built in the central Iraqi province of Salahuddin, contractors have usually had to pay hefty bribes to corrupt officials in Baghdad to clear away the red tape. It was just one example of the heavy hand that the central government holds over even the smallest details of life in Iraq's provinces. That hand was often corrupt as well. Around 70 percent of the projects that the government committed to fund in Salahuddin existed only on paper, according to Najih al-Mizan, a Sunni lawmaker from the province. "Some of the funds allocated to the province go missing in Baghdad," said al-Mizan. The combination of interference and neglect from the Shiite-led government in Baghdad was one reason why many among the predominantly Sunni population of Salahuddin saw the Islamic State group as a possible alternative when its extremist fighters swept into the province the past month, al-Mizan said. People there were so fed up with Baghdad, they were desperate for something new. Now, Iraq's new government, beleaguered by the Sunni militant onslaught over much of the country, is making a concerted effort to empower local and provincial governments. The aim is in part to draw Sunni support away from the extremists. But it is also a calculation that it is better to have a controlled decentralization of power than to see the country outright fall apart into Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish fragments, as many fear. Until recently in Iraq, getting anything done on a provincial level — even routine business like hiring a street cleaner — required approval from Baghdad. Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish populations alike have long complained that the central government monopolized power and horded resources, leaving outlying regions to fend for themselves. Provinces that are home to the Sunni minority have long felt the brunt of discrimination from Shiite authorities in Baghdad, who the Sunnis say would often either neglect their needs or exploit them through corruption. But Shiite provinces were neglected as well, particularly those dominated by Shiite parties not in favor in the capital. The exclusion intensified feelings of resentment toward the government of then-Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, even among one-time loyalists. That resentment finally led to al-Maliki's replacement last month. The Islamic State group, which now holds territory stretching from northern Syria across Sunni regions of northern and western Iraq down to the edges of Baghdad, has intentionally sought to benefit from the Sunni resentments of Baghdad. Part of its core strategy has been to establish administration over the land that it controls to win over the population. The group administers courts, cleans streets, fixes roads and even polices traffic. Haider al-Abadi, named Iraq's prime minister on Sept. 8, has made decentralization a paramount theme in his platform. He plans to give greater autonomy to provincial governments and construct a national guard in which recruits and leadership are conscripted from local populations. "We have to move away from governing from the center, which is Baghdad, and having to decide all the details for the different governorates — that's important for us," al-Abadi said in a Sept. 17 interview with The Associated Press. "We want to have a real federal state according to the constitution," by giving provinces more power and involving them more in the central government's decision-making for the whole of Iraq. Decentralization has failed to take off in the past. In 2013, parliament revised a law on provincial powers to spread authorities but the changes were never carried out. The constitution itself — written under heavy U.S. influence after the 2003 fall of Saddam Hussein — has strong provisions for decentralization. It allows several provinces to vote to form a region together that would have a large degree of autonomy. That raises the possibility of a Sunni-dominated region in the center and a Shiite-dominated one in the south, similar to the already existing semi-autonomous Kurdish region in the north. No individual province has tried to officially start the process to create a region, but there have been calls. This week, protesters in the southern city of Basra held demonstrations demanding greater decentralization. But decentralization also gets lost in the thicket of disputes between Baghdad and the provinces over issues ranging from annual budgets, investment, security, sharing of resources and balance of powers. The Shiite-majority city of Basra, for example, has everything and nothing. It has little access to drinking water, systematic garbage collection or decent health care — ironic, since Basra is the biggest contributor to Iraq's annual budget with its robust oil reserves. "We are not even able to build houses for poor people because we have no control over most of Basra's land," said Sabah al-Bazaouni, a member of Basra's provincial council. "The Oil Ministry has the upper hand in this issue (and) does not care whether our people are living in houses or on the sidewalk." Iraq has had a long history of autocratic rule since gaining independence from the British in 1932, with the central government in Baghdad maintaining a tight grip on all provincial matters. At the time, only the Kurds fought the centralized model of governance as it stymied their ambitions for an independent Kurdish state. But in the decades that followed, Shiites clashed with the Sunni-led government claiming that they were treated like second-class citizens, persecuted, arrested, and denied basic rights. When the U.S.-led invasion toppled Saddam in 2003, tables turned and Sunnis expressed similar grievances about the Shiites who came to power. One complaint voiced particularly by Sunnis and Kurds is over abuses by the security forces and Shiite militias. Al-Maliki inflamed tensions in the military by dismissing some Sunni officers and replacing them with Shiite officers loyal to him. Al-Abadi cited the problem of indiscriminate shelling of urban areas by the military as a source of bitterness toward the central government, and within days of taking office he banned the armed forces from such shelling. The national guard plan also aims to reduce the resentments by bringing locals more into security duties. But the fear over decentralization has always been that empowering provinces will only get the ball rolling faster toward the disintegration of the war-torn nation. "There is the risk that federalism may eventually lead to secessionism," said Ramzy Mardini, an Iraq expert at the Washington-based Atlantic Council. "It has already taken root in Iraqi Kurdistan, and once the territorial integrity of Iraq is compromised, there's no assurance that things won't unravel further." ========================================== Islamic State seizes large areas of Syrian town despite air strikes Thu, Oct 09 18:43 PM EDT image 1 of 7 By Daren Butler and Oliver Holmes MURSITPINAR Turkey/BEIRUT (Reuters) - Islamic State fighters seized more than a third of the Syrian border town of Kobani, a monitoring group said on Thursday, as U.S.-led air strikes failed to halt their advance and Turkish forces looked on without intervening. With Washington ruling out a ground operation in Syria, Turkey said it was unrealistic to expect it to mount a cross-border operation alone to relieve the mainly Kurdish town. The U.S. military said Kurdish forces appeared to be holding out in the town, which lies within sight of Turkish territory, following new air strikes in the area against a militant training camp and fighters. Washington said U.S. forces launched nine air strikes on Thursday against Islamic State militants north and south of Kobani, striking some fighting units and destroying four buildings held by the group. U.S. forces also conducted two air strikes against Islamic State in Iraq. But the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Islamic State, still widely known by its former acronym of ISIS, had pushed forward on Thursday. "ISIS control more than a third of Kobani - all eastern areas, a small part of the northeast and an area in the southeast," said Rami Abdulrahman, head of the Observatory, which monitors the Syrian civil war. The commander of Kobani's heavily outgunned Kurdish defenders confirmed that the militants had made major gains, after a three-week battle that has also caused the worst street clashes in years between Turkish police and Kurdish protesters. In Turkey's eastern province of Bingol, two police officers were killed and a police chief was seriously wounded in an attack, CNN Turk television reported, while clashes elsewhere killed four protesters. Militia chief Esmat al-Sheikh put the area controlled by Islamic State, which controls large amounts of territory in Syria and neighboring Iraq, at about a quarter of the town. "The clashes are ongoing, street battles," he said by telephone from the town. Explosions rocked Kobani throughout the day, with black smoke visible from the Turkish border a few km (miles) away. Islamic State hoisted its black flag in the town overnight and a stray projectile landed 3 km (2 miles) inside Turkey. The town's defenders say the United States is giving only token support with its air strikes, while Turkish tanks sent to the frontier look on but do nothing to defend the town, where the United Nations says only a few hundred remain. Over 180,000 people from the city and surrounding area have fled into Turkey. UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS Turkey's foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, played down the chances of its forces going to the aid of Kobani. "It is not realistic to expect Turkey to conduct a ground operation on its own," he told a news conference with visiting NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg. He added: "We are holding talks ... Once there is a common decision, Turkey will not hold back from playing its part." Ankara resents suggestions from Washington it is not pulling its weight, and wants broader joint action that also targets the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

"We strongly reject allegations of Turkish responsibility for the ISIS advance," said a senior Ankara government source. "Our allies, especially the U.S. administration, dragged their feet for a very long time before deciding to take action against the catastrophic events happening in Syria," he added.

Turkey has long advocated action against Assad during the civil war, which grew out of a popular uprising in 2011. But the United States called off air strikes on Damascus government forces at the last minute last year when Assad agreed to give up his chemical weapons. It has also managed so far to fly sorties across Syria with tacit consent from Assad. Kerry said Islamic State's advance on Kobani was a tragedy but would not deter the U.S. coalition from its long-term strategy in the region. "Kobani is a tragedy because it represents the evil of ISIS, but it is not the definition either of the strategy or the full measure of what is happening with response to ISIS," he told reporters in Boston. "We are only a few weeks into building the coalition," Kerry said. "The primary goal of this effort has been to provide the space for Iraq to be able to get its government in place and to begin to push back and to begin to be able to deprive them (Islamic State militants) of their command and control, their supply centers and their training. That is taking place." Retired U.S. General John Allen, asked by President Barack Obama to oversee the creation and work of the anti-Islamic State coalition, was in Ankara on Thursday for two days of talks with Turkey's leaders. President Tayyip Erdogan wants the U.S.-led alliance to enforce a "no-fly zone" to prevent Assad's air force flying over Syrian territory near the Turkish border, and to create a safe area for around 1.5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey to return. Stoltenberg said neither had been discussed by NATO. TURKISH CLASHES The anger felt by Turkey's Kurds over Ankara's failure to help their brethren in Syria threatens to unravel a fragile peace process that Erdogan hoped would end a 30-year armed struggle for autonomy by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). At least 25 people died in the mainly Kurdish southeast of Turkey on Wednesday during clashes between security forces and Kurds demanding that the government do more to help Kobani. On Thursday, two policemen came under attack in Bingol's city center while they were inspecting shops damaged in demonstrations earlier this week. No group claimed responsibility for the killings. Four people were killed and 20 were wounded in the southern border province of Gaziantep when armed clashes broke out between protesters demonstrating in solidarity with Kobani and groups opposing them. The violence had prompted curfews to be imposed in five southeastern provinces, restrictions unseen since the height of the PKK's war against Turkish forces in the 1990s, and streets were calmer as a result. Erdogan said protesters had exploited the events in Kobani as an excuse to sabotage the peace process. Selahattin Demirtas, head of the Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP), which had urged Turkish Kurds to take to the streets this week, denied that they had provoked violence. He appealed for calm and said jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan had called for talks with the government to be stepped up. Kurdish leaders in Syria have asked Ankara, so far in vain, to establish a corridor through Turkey to allow aid and possibly arms and fighters to reach Kobani. Ankara is suspicious of Syria's Kurds for having achieved self-rule by tacit agreement with Assad after he lost control of the region to anti-government rebels, and fears this could revive secessionist aspirations among its own Kurds. Turkish police fired tear gas against Kurdish protesters in the town of Suruc near the border overnight, and the shutters of most shops remained closed in a traditional mark of protest. Ferdi, a 21-year-old Turkish Kurd watching the smoke rising from Kobani, said if the town fell, the conflict would spread to Turkey. "In fact," he said, "it already has spread here." (Additional reporting by Tom Perry, Mariam Karouny in Beirut, Humeyra Pamuk in Istanbul and Orhan Coskun, Tulay Karadeniz and Jonny Hogg in Ankara, Scott Malone in Boston and Peter Cooney in Washington; Editing by David Stamp, Kevin Liffey and Ken Wills) ============= Iraqi soldiers man a checkpoint in Basra, in December 2007. (ATEF HASSAN/Reuters) By Ali Abu Iraq and Ben Lando of Iraq Oil Report Published Thursday, October 9th, 2014 Four people were kidnapped Wednesday in Basra, including an Iraqi oil worker – the latest in a series of violent incidents that have prompted provincial leaders to revise security plans.Iraq's oil capital is far south of the territory controlled by militants of the so-called Islamic State (IS), whose war against the Iraqi state has effectively shut down the country's northern oil sector. To counter that threat, many Basra security force regulars have been called up north, leaving something. ========== Iraq’s north export infrastructure destroyed Iraq’s north export infrastructure destroyed Iraq’s Oil Police secure the site of a burning oil pipeline near the northern city of Kirkuk on July 3, 2006, after it was bombed by insurgents. (MARWAN IBRAHIM/AFP/Getty Images) By Ben Lando, Ben Van Heuvelen, Patrick Osgood, Rawaz Tahir and Staff of Iraq Oil Report Published Thursday, September 11th, 2014 Key infrastructure along the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline (ITP) corridor that has been fully controlled by insurgents since June has been damaged so badly that, even if security were restored, it would take years to repair.The long-term incapacitation of Iraq's northern export pipeline deprives the country of a major revenue stream and creates an added incentive for Baghdad to pursue political reconciliation with the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), which has built pipelines that cou... ================= Shootout between ‘allies’ underscores Iraq divisions Shootout between ‘allies’ underscores Iraq divisions Shia militiamen brandish their weapons in the town of Tuz Khurmatu on Aug. 31, 2014. (STRINGER/Reuters) By By Christine van den Toorn, Shwan Lacky and Staff of Iraq Oil Report Published Wednesday, October 8th, 2014 Ethnic and sectarian tensions are approaching a breaking point in the volatile northern city of Tuz Khurmatu, following an Oct. 3 gun battle between Shia militia and Kurdish fighters.The shootout, which injured at least four people, highlighted not only a rivalry between Kurds and Shia, but also the widespread mistrust and mistreatment of Sunnis. It was another worrying sign that violence and sectarianism will continue to plague Iraq even after the extremist militants of the so-called Islam... ================ UPDATE 1-Iraq cuts output targets in revised oil deals with BP, CNPC Thu, Sep 04 08:21 AM EDT (Adds BP comment, details, quotes, background) By Aref Mohammed BASRA, Iraq, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Iraq signed revised contracts with foreign oil companies for two southern oilfields on Thursday that reduced their production targets and extended the life of the deals, Iraqi oil officials said. The revised deal with oil major BP for Iraq's giant Rumaila oilfield cut the planned plateau level to 2.1 million barrels per day from 2.85 million bpd, Salah Mohammad, general manager of the Rumaila Operating Organisation, told Reuters. Iraq also agreed with China's CNPC to slash the final output target from the Halfaya oilfield to 400,000 bpd from 535,000 bpd, Adnan Noshi, head of state-run Maysan Oil Co, said. Iraq had set an overall production capacity target of 12 million bpd by 2020, which would rival that of top oil exporter Saudi Arabia, after it signed service contracts in 2009-2010 to develop its southern oilfields. Oil majors working in Iraq include BP, leader at Rumaila; ExxonMobil, in charge of West Qurna 1; and Royal Dutch Shell, operator of Majnoon. But crumbling infrastructure, red tape and a lack of clear oil legislation have stunted investor interest. Iraq has repeatedly failed to reach its ambitious targets, and current output from the southern fields is around 3 million bpd. Baghdad has reduced the overall capacity target to 8.5-9 million bpd and returned to the negotiating table to discuss revised plateau production rates with oil companies. NEW GOALS Rumaila, the workhorse of Iraq's oil industry which BP operates with CNPC, has estimated reserves of 17 billion barrels. It currently produces around 1.3 million bpd, Salah said, adding he expected that output level to remain steady for the rest of the year. Officials from BP and Iraq's oil ministry signed the amendment to the existing contract, originally agreed in 2009, in a closed-door meeting at Rumaila on Thursday. "Iraq and BP have reached an agreement to cut Rumaila's production target to 2.1 million bpd," Salah said. "It was (also) agreed to extend the timeframe to reach the new final production of 2.1 million bpd to 10 years from seven years that had been agreed upon before," he added. A BP spokesman said that under the amendment to the existing technical service agreement, the partners "plan to raise plateau production by about 800,000 b/d within the next decade to some 2.1 million b/d". CNPC, operator of Halfaya, is developing the field with France's Total and Malaysian state company Petronas . Maysan's Noshi said Halfaya's amended contract had been extended to 30 years from 20. Halfaya currently produces 200,000 bpd and it is expected to boost output to 230,000 bpd by the end of this year, he added. Iraq's giant southern fields have not been affected by Baghdad's fighting with Islamist insurgents. (Reporting by Aref Mohammed; Additional reporting and writing by Rania El Gamal; editing by Jane Baird) ========= Siege of Kobani: Insider video shows ISIS militants advance Published time: October 11, 2014 18:54 Conflict, Military, Syria, Terrorism, Turkey, War As fierce fighting continues for the Kurdish city of Kobani near the Turkish-Syrian border, a video was posted online showing the advance of the jihadists. There are widespread fears the town’s capture may result in a bloody massacre. The video was posted online on Friday by a group connected to ISIS to show militants using rocket propelled grenades and sledgehammers while advancing inside the besieged city of Kobani. As of Friday, the jihadists controlled 40 percent of the area. ISIS now controls 40% of Kobani – top US official The two-minute long clip shows the scenes of fight in the streets, militants changing dispositions and aiming fire. The jihadists are equipped with different kinds of weapons including tommy-guns and shotguns. AP reported that the video has been authenticated against known locations and events by regional experts. AP cites a Kurdish official as saying that fighting was mainly taking place in the southern and eastern parts of the city. READ MORE: Battle for Baghdad: ISIS now within 8 miles of airport, armed with MANPADS Many Kurds in neighboring Turkey took part in protests appealing to the government to intervene and to let Turkish Kurds cross the border and participate in defense of the town. Despite airstrikes by the US-led coalition, the IS fighters advanced this week. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the town's Kurdish fighters are being outgunned by the militants. UN envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura warned Friday that if Kobani falls to ISIS, thousands of civilians there would “most likely be massacred.” He urged Turkey to prevent the slaughter. "Do you remember Srebrenica? We do. We never forgot and probably we never forgave ourselves," de Mistura told journalists. READ MORE: 1.8 million fleeing ISIS in deadly, life-threatening situation - UN At least 500 people have been killed and more than 200,000 forced to flee into Turkey since the IS jihadists started an assault on Kobani in mid-September. =========

Iraqi PM says Islamic State plans subway attacks in U.S. and Paris

Islamic State committing 'staggering' crimes in Iraq: U.N. report Thu, Oct 02 13:24 PM EDT image By Stephanie Nebehay GENEVA (Reuters) - Islamic State insurgents in Iraq have carried out mass executions, abducted women and girls as sex slaves, and used child soldiers in what may amount to systematic war crimes that demand prosecution, the United Nations said on Thursday. In a report based on 500 interviews with witnesses, also said Iraqi government air strikes on the Sunni Muslim militants had caused "significant civilian deaths" by hitting villages, a school and hospitals in violation of international law. At least 9,347 civilians had been killed and 17,386 wounded so far this year through September, well over half of them since the Islamist insurgents also known as ISIL and ISIS began seizing large parts of northern Iraq in early June, the report said. "The array of violations and abuses perpetrated by ISIL and associated armed groups is staggering, and many of their acts may amount to war crimes or crimes against humanity," said U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra'ad al Hussein. In a statement, he called again for the Baghdad government to join the International Criminal Court, saying the Hague court was set up to prosecute such massive abuses and direct targeting of civilians on the basis of their religious or ethnic group. Islamist forces have committed gross human rights violations and violence of an "increasing sectarian nature" against groups including Christians, Yazidis and Shi'ite Muslims in a widening conflict that has forced 1.8 million Iraqis to flee their homes, according to the 29-page report by the U.N. Human Rights Office and the U.N. Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI). "These include attacks directly targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure, executions and other targeted killings of civilians, abductions, rape and other forms of sexual and physical violence perpetrated against women and children, forced recruitment of children, destruction or desecration of places of religious or cultural significance, wanton destruction and looting of property, and denial of fundamental freedoms." FEMALE "SEX SLAVES" In a single massacre on June 12, the report said, about 1,500 Iraqi soldiers and security officers from the former U.S. Camp Speicher military base in Salahuddin province were captured and killed by Islamic State fighters. However, the bodies have not been exhumed and the precise toll is not known. No one disputes that Iraqi military recruits were led off the base near Tikrit unarmed and then machinegunned in their hundreds into mass graves by Islamic State, whose fighters boasted of the killings on the Internet. Women have been treated particularly harshly, the report said: "ISIL (has) attacked and killed female doctors, lawyers, among other professionals." In August, it said, ISIL took 450-500 women and girls to the Tal Afar citadel in Iraq's Nineveh region where "150 unmarried girls and women, predominantly from the Yazidi and Christian communities, were reportedly transported to Syria, either to be given to ISIL fighters as a reward or to be sold as sex slaves". Islamic State pushed on with its assault on a Syrian border town on Thursday despite coalition air strikes meant to weaken them, sending thousands more Kurdish refugees into Turkey and dragging Ankara deeper into the conflict. Islamic State and allied groups have attacked and destroyed places of religious and cultural significance in Iraq that do not conform to its "takfiri" doctrine, the U.N. report said, referring to the beliefs of Sunni militants who justify their violence by branding others as apostates. But the report also voiced deep concern at violations committed by the Baghdad government and allied fighters, including air strikes and shelling that may not have distinguished between military targets and civilian areas. (additional reporting by Ned Parker in Baghdad; Editing by Louise Ireland) ============== Air strikes said to hit Islamic State oil refineries in Syria Sun, Sep 28 17:23 PM EDT image 1 of 3 By Mariam Karouny and Ayla Jean Yackley BEIRUT/ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Air raids believed to have been carried out by U.S.-led forces hit three makeshift oil refineries in northern Syria on Sunday as part of a campaign against Islamic State, a human rights group said. The United States has been carrying out strikes in Iraq since Aug. 8 and in Syria, with the help of Arab allies, since Tuesday, with the aim of "degrading and destroying" the militants who have captured large areas of both countries. U.S. President Barack Obama has been seeking to build a wide coalition to weaken Islamic State, which has killed thousands and beheaded at least three Westerners. In a potential boost for the United States, a jihadist Twitter account said the leader of an al Qaeda-linked group had been killed in a U.S. air strike in Syria, the SITE service said. A U.S. official said on Sept. 24 that the United States believed Mohsin al-Fadhli, leader of the Khorasan group, had been killed in a strike a day earlier, but the Pentagon said later it was still investigating. But in a tweet on Sept. 27, a jihadist offered condolences for the death of Fadhli, SITE, a U.S.-based organization that monitors militant groups online, said on Sunday. In Washington, Tony Blinken, deputy White House national security adviser, said on Sunday that officials could not yet confirm the death. U.S. officials have described Khorasan as a network of al Qaeda fighters with battlefield experience mostly in Pakistan and Afghanistan that is now working with al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, the Nusra Front. The head of the Nusra Front said the air strikes would not eliminate Islamists in Syria and warned that the group's supporters could attack inside Western countries. In an audio message posted on jihadi forums, Abu Mohamad al-Golani urged European and U.S. citizens to denounce the strikes, which he said could trigger retaliation from Muslims. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the latest air strikes in northern Syria occurred shortly after midnight in Raqqa province. Rami Abdelrahman of the Observatory said that destroying the makeshift refineries has led to a sharp increase in the price of diesel, adding that in Syria's northern Aleppo province the price has more than doubled. "The price went up from 9,000 Syrian pounds to 21,000 in Aleppo. Hitting these refineries has affected ordinary people, now they have to pay higher prices," he told Reuters. A medium-sized makeshift refinery, mounted on trucks, can refine up to 200 barrels of crude a day into fuel and other products. RIVAL GROUPS But the impact of the strikes on Islamic State (IS) was not immediately clear. IS has gained support among Islamists following the attacks, including from rival groups. Scores of fighters have left al Qaeda's Nusra Front and other Islamist groups in Syria to join IS since the strikes started. The air strikes have failed so far to stop the advance of Islamic State fighters on the Syrian Kurdish town of Kobani near the border with Turkey which the group has sieged from three sides, triggering an exodus of more than 150,000 refugees. In Washington, U.S. lawmakers stepped up calls for congressional authorization of Obama's war against Islamic State, amid signs the United States and its allies face a long fight. U.S. House Speaker John Boehner told ABC's "This Week" that he believed Obama had the legal authority for strikes against Islamic State, but would call lawmakers back from their districts if Obama sought a resolution backing the action. "I think he does have the authority to do it. But ... this is a proposal the Congress ought to consider," Boehner said. Obama and other U.S. officials have said they believe no further vote to authorize force is needed. But Senator Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat and member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told CNN that Congress should debate the issue because of uncertainty about how long the U.S. military would remain engaged in Syria. Obama meanwhile said U.S. intelligence agencies had underestimated Islamic State activity in Syria, which has become "ground zero" for jihadists worldwide. He said in a CBS television interview that Islamic militants went underground when U.S. Marines quashed al Qaeda in Iraq with help from Iraq's tribes. "But over the past couple of years, during the chaos of the Syrian civil war, where essentially you have huge swathes of the country that are completely ungoverned, they were able to reconstitute themselves and take advantage of that chaos," Obama said. "And so this became ground zero for jihadists around the world." (Writing by Giles Elgood; Editing by Susan Fenton) ==================================== Iraqi PM says Islamic State plans subway attacks in U.S. and Paris Thu, Sep 25 18:52 PM EDT image By Arshad Mohammed NEW YORK (Reuters) - Iraq has "credible" intelligence that Islamic State militants plan to attack subway systems in Paris and the United States, the prime minister said on Thursday, but U.S. and French officials said they had no evidence to back up his claims. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's comments were met with surprise by security, intelligence and transit officials in both countries. New York's leaders scrambled to ride the subway to reassure the public that the nation's largest city was safe. Abadi said he received the information Thursday morning from militants captured in Iraq and concluded it was credible after requesting further details. The attacks, he said, were plotted from inside Iraq by "networks" of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. "They plan to have attacks in the metros of Paris and the U.S.," Abadi told a small group of U.S. reporters while in New York for the annual meeting of the U.N. General Assembly. "I asked for more credible information. I asked for names. I asked for details, for cities, you know, dates. And from the details I have received, yes, it looks credible." Some Iraqi officials in Baghdad questioned Abadi's comments. One high-level Iraqi government official told Reuters it appeared to be based on "ancient intelligence". Another called it "an old story." Both spoke on condition of anonymity. Abadi did not provide further details. A senior Iraqi official traveling with him later said Iraqi intelligence had uncovered "serious threats" and had shared this information with its allies' intelligence agencies. "A full assessment of the veracity of the intelligence and how far the plans have gone into implementation is ongoing," the official said. Ben Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser to U.S. President Barack Obama, said the United States had "not confirmed any specific threat." "What we've consistently said to the Iraqis is if they have information that is relevant to terrorist activity or terrorist plotting, that they can and should share that through our intelligence and law enforcement challenges," Rhodes told reporters traveling with Obama on Air Force One from New York. "We would certainly take seriously any information they are learning," he said. French security services also said they had no information confirming Abadi's statement, a French government official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. STRONGER TRANSIT SECURITY New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and other local officials suggested they were unfazed, updating their public schedules on Thursday to add trips on the city's subway system to reassure millions of daily commuters. "We are convinced New Yorkers are safe," de Blasio said at a press conference at a lower Manhattan subway station as he stood alongside Bill Bratton, the police commissioner. Bratton, however, said in response to Abadi's comments that he sent more police to patrol subways and streets in the city which was already on high alert because of the U.N. meeting. Police will also increase security in and around Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, where baseball star Derek Jeter is due to play his last home game on Thursday before retiring at the end of the season. Officials in Chicago and Washington D.C. said they knew of no threats to their transit systems. The United States and France have both launched air strikes against Islamic State targets in Iraq as part of a U.S.-led campaign to "degrade and destroy" the radical Sunni militant group, which has seized a third of both Iraq and Syria. Abadi disclosed the intelligence while making a case for Western and Arab countries to join that campaign. "We want to increase the number of willing countries who would support this," he said. "This is not military. This is intelligence. This is security. The terrorists have a massive international campaign. Don’t underestimate it." In the past, the United States had received threats that various militant groups were targeting transportation systems but there is no recent information about an imminent plan by Islamic State, one U.S. official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. Abadi also said that Iraq did not want to see foreign "boots on the ground," but stressed the value of providing air cover, saying Iraq's air force did not have sufficient capability. He said Australia was "very interested" in participating, though he did not provide details. He also voiced optimism about a planned British parliament vote on Friday on the matter, saying "they reckon it will be successful." Earlier on Thursday, France said it would increase security on transport and in public places after a French tourist was killed in Algeria, and said it was ready to support all states that requested its help to fight terror. (Additional reporting by Mark Hosenball and Ian Simpson in Washington, Frank McGurty, Jonathan Allen and Steve Holland in New York, Nicolas Bertin in Paris and Ned Parker in Baghdad; Editing by Jason Szep, Tom Brown and David Gregorio)