Is It Safe To Get Back Into These Oil Stocks: Ophir Energy Plc, Genel Energy PLC & Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited?

Wed, 3rd February 2016 - 13:12 Without the cushion of steady cash flows from a downstream business, mid-cap oil and gas producers are going through a tough patch. The price of Brent crude oil has slumped to barely above $30 a barrel and worse may be ahead. With excess supply in the oil market likely to persist until at least 2017, investor sentiment towards the sector is very low. Shares in Africa-focused E&P company Ophir Energy (LSE:OPHR) have fallen 14% this year. But there's cause for optimism: its sizeable portfolio of gas assets in Thailand, Indonesia and Africa positions it to benefit from rising Asian gas demand. There's substantial upside potential because Ophir's largely untapped resource base is high quality clean gas, which makes it easy to convert to LNG, and therefore is cost competitive too. The company also benefits from a strong balance sheet, with $650m of cash at the end of 2015. This should cover all capex needs and exploration costs until at least the end of 2017. Recently, Ophir Energy announced a deal to farm-out a 40% equity stake in its Fortuna floating LNG project to Schlumberger in exchange for reimbursing 50% of Ophir Energy's past development costs, estimated to be around $250m to $300m. Achieving this deal at that price while oil prices are so low demonstrates the quality of the asset and reduces the cash flow needs of the company. On the downside, Ophir Energy's high capex needs mean its bottom line is expected to linger heavily in the red for at least another two years. Despite efforts to cut costs, Ophir is still forecast to remain free cash flow negative for at least another three years, leading to speculation that further farm-out deals or a capital raise may be needed before first gas is produced from its major developments. Meanwhile, shares in Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LSE:GKP) have performed better. Its shares are up 9% this year, thanks to news that oil producers in the Kurdistan Regional Government may soon resume regular payments to producers for crude exports. Repayment of Gulf Keystone's nearly $300m in arrears would allow it to organically fund capex. This would massively improve its cash flow outlook and balance sheet. Tough times Kurdistan-focused producer Genel Energy (LSE:GENL) has remained profitable throughout the recent turbulence in the oil sector, but its shares have fared even worse. After a 77% decline in 2015, Genel has lost another 43% of its value since the start of the year, leaving the former £3bn company with a market cap of just £275m. Falling oil production only made matters worse. Genel decided to cut back on new drilling in 2015 because of payment issues with the Kurdistan government. It expects to produce only between 60,000 and 70,000 barrels of oil a day this year, compared with 85,000 in 2015. Genel should be able to cover its capex needs over the next two years without additional funding, as it's owed some $400m in arrears by the Kurdistan government and has over $400m in cash on its balance sheet. What's more, analysts expect Genel to have earned underlying earnings of 10p per share in 2015, giving it an estimated P/E of 10. All three mid-cap oil stocks seem to be attractive plays on higher long-term oil prices, but timing is also an important issue to consider. I feel that the oil price could fall further, so I would stay out of these stocks. Unless the oil price bottoms out, these oil stocks could have much further to fall. Jack Tang has no position in any shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

4th Annual Ultimate Energy Conference

Just listened to this again and I'm not sure if someone has mentioned this but JG said that SA is effectively an extension of Shaikan which we all knew BUT it will be operated via flowlines into the Shaikan PFs. So not only do we get 80% of SA but the only cost will be for the well & flowlines and not expensive PFs! More View thread 32 Respond Login to Vote up ------- Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. 4th Annual Ultimate Energy Conference December 2, 2014 - December 3, 2014 New York, N.Y. Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company and a leading operator in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, where the company has been present since 2007. Commercial production and crude oil sales have been ramping up from Shaikan, a world-class discovery and our flagship project. Two production facilities are on track to produce 40,000 barrels of oil per day with both international and domestic markets being established for the Shaikan crude. In order to realise further multi-billion barrel resource potential, Gulf Keystone continues exploration, appraisal and early production operations on the Sheikh Adi, Ber Bahr and Akri-Bijeel blocks, all with discoveries. See full profile... John Gerstenlauer Chief Executive Officer John Gerstenlauer joined Gulf Keystone in 2008 as Chief Operating Officer and was appointed Chief Executive Officer in July 2014. He holds Bachelor of Science degrees in Marine Biology, Civil Engineering, a Master of Science degree in Ocean Engineering and has written numerous technical papers on Petrophysical topics and drilling techniques. Mr Gerstenlauer’s oil & gas industry career began when he joined Shell Coastal Division, New Orleans in 1978. Over subsequent years, he assumed increasingly senior production engineering and drilling engineering roles within various New Orleans-based Shell operating divisions including Coastal, Onshore and Offshore, Shell Oil subsidiary Pecton do Brasil, Canadian Occidental Yemen, UMC Petroleum, and Wintershall AG Kassel, Germany before becoming Managing Director of Wintershall Nederland Group, The Hague. If you are experiencing any issues with the webcast, please try the following steps to resolve the issue: - Press the play button - Refresh your page - Switch to a different browser - Switch to a different network - Contact WSW http://wsw.com/contact.html ================== Iraq says to export oil from Kirkuk and Kurdish region via Turkey Tue, Dec 02 05:04 AM EST BAGHDAD, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Iraq's government and Kurdish authorities agreed on Tuesday to export 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil from Kirkuk and 250,000 bpd from the northern Kurdish region through Turkey, Finance Minister Hoshiyar Zebari said. The agreement aims to overcome months of dispute which all but halted exports from Kirkuk and stopped payments of Kurdish salaries by the central government earlier this year. "The deal was reached today and endorsed by the Iraqi cabinet. Now it's a done deal," Zebari told Reuters. (Reporting by Dominic Evans; Editing by Alison Williams) =============== Iraq exports boost to add pressure on 2015 oil market Thu, Dec 04 05:55 AM EST * Iraqi exports expected to reach record rates * Supply boost to pressure Russian crude in Med market * Higher Iraqi output cited as factor against OPEC cut By Alex Lawler LONDON, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Iraq's plan for higher oil exports in 2015, emerging in detail just days after OPEC shunned any output cut, will add to global over supply and is likely to entrench the reluctance of other OPEC members to curb their own supplies. Iraq's government on Tuesday reached a temporary agreement with Kurdish regional authorities, preparing the ground for flows of 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Kirkuk crude exports to resume, on top of 250,000 bpd from the region's own fields. The increase could cause unease for other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries unable to boost exports and receiving lower revenues for crude sales following a 40 percent drop in prices since June. Extra Iraqi crude is set to reach a market forecast to need less OPEC oil globally in 2015 because of rising supply of U.S. shale oil and other competing sources, and no significant increase in world demand growth. "In purely volumetric terms, it's a rather unfortunate time for prices that this is coming on," said Eugene Lindell, analyst at JBC Energy in Vienna, who added that the oil would be a "game changer" for the local Mediterranean crude market. When OPEC met on Nov. 27, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies opposed calls from poorer members including Venezuela and Algeria for production cuts, sending prices plunging. Crude has since fallen further, slipping to below $68 on Monday, the lowest since 2009. Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdel Mehdi expressed concern about lower prices on arrival for the meeting, but later told reporters Iraqi exports would rise in 2015 to an average of 3.2 million bpd including Kurdistan. Before the meeting, OPEC delegates cited Iraq's rising production, as well as a lack of willingness by non-OPEC producers such as Russia, as a reason against other OPEC members cutting supply. "If you are going to cut production and Iraq is going to increase with others from non-OPEC, then you will achieve nothing," said one. 'UNACCEPTABLE' Kuwait's Oil Minister Ali Saleh al-Omair on Wednesday cricitized unnamed OPEC members for boosting output and said maintaining supplies was the appropriate response. "All of them ask you to cut your production, however they increase theirs. This is unacceptable," the official Kuwait News Agency cited him as saying. "So we should maintain our marketing quotas and production to meet our needs." Iraq is expanding its oil industry with the help of Western oil companies and has argued it should be exempt from OPEC supply restraint as it is recovering from years of sanctions and conflict. Exports have been held back for most of 2014 because of the closure in March of Iraq's northern pipeline, which flows to the Turkish port of Ceyhan from the Kirkuk fields, due to attacks from Sunni militants from Islamic State, which controls much of the north and west of Iraq. At present, Iraq is exporting about 2.50 million bpd from its southern fields - which have kept pumping and remained secure despite battles in other parts of Iraq - and an estimated 250,000 bpd of Kurdish shipments. Smooth progress is not certain. Iraq has missed its targets to expand supplies in the past, but only a small increase is needed to push Iraq's exports above the record high of 2.80 million bpd set in February. This could happen as soon as December as an initial 150,000 bpd of Kirkuk is scheduled to flow this month. The prospect of extra supplies has already put prices of competing, sour crude oils, such as Russian Urals, under pressure in the Mediterranean market. "We might see more flows soon," said a trader with a company that buys Iraqi crude, who sees Iraq's plan to export 3.2 million bpd next year as realistic. (Editing by William Hardy) =============== Chinese police arrest employee of commodity trader Trafigura as part of an investigation into an alleged $32 million oil fraud Exclusive: Trafigura China employee arrested over alleged oil fraud Thu, Dec 04 05:05 AM EST By Chen Aizhu BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese police have arrested an employee of commodity trader Trafigura as part of an investigation into an alleged $32 million gasoline trade fraud, according to an official arrest warrant seen by Reuters. Tian Meng, 39, who works at Trafigura's oil marketing team in Beijing, has been held without charge in the northern city of Cangzhou since August, three sources with direct knowledge of the situation said. Under Chinese law, police can arrest suspects and detain them for up to seven months without charge. Tian could not be reached for comment, while a spokeswoman for Trafigura, which is the world's second-largest metals trader and third-largest oil trader, declined to comment. Commodity financing deals in China are already under the spotlight after a billion-dollar scandal at Qingdao Port, where a private Chinese trading firm has been accused of duplicating warehouse certificates to secure bank loans. The investigation into Tian was launched after private Chinese trader Qingdao United Energy (QUE) filed a complaint to police in early August, alleging it had lost $32 million via trade financing deals arranged without its knowledge between Tian and local trader Zhang Wei, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the investigation. Zhang was arrested in May, according to a warrant seen by Reuters. He could not be reached for comment. A spokesman for the Cangzhou police bureau declined to comment when asked to confirm the investigation into Tian and Zhang. A senior Trafigura source said Zhang, who had been trading derivatives with Trafigura since 2011 using collateral and credit backed by a local-government-backed firm, had accumulated losses of $32 million by late 2013 and agreed to a financing scheme with Tian and his Singapore-based gasoline team to settle the losses. Zhang bought 700,000 barrels of gasoline from Trafigura at market price using letters of credit issued by QUE and then sold them back to Trafigura at a discount of $32 million, two official sources with direct knowledge of the investigations said. Li Yixing, founder of QUE, told Reuters he was not aware of the loss-covering agreement made by Zhang, who was a shareholder in his company but was not authorized to enter into such deals. The senior Trafigura source said Tian believed Zhang was the authorized agent of QUE, adding that Zhang had represented other companies in previous transactions without problems. (Editing by Fayen Wong, Ed Davies and Will Waterman)

Baghdad, Kurds strike temporary oil deal : Crisis & Opportunity

http://www.crescent.ae/?utm_source=IOR+Email+Update+Subscribers&utm_campaign=435908e38a-Email_Update&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f9870911e6-435908e38a-192733646 ------------------------------------------------------------ http://us1.campaign-archive1.com/?u=13d058ed214708c66bc5170b2&id=435908e38a&e=2f05fd0611 www.iraqoilreport.com (http://iraqoilreport.com?utm_source=IOR+Email+Update+Subscribers&utm_campaign=435908e38a-Email_Update&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f9870911e6-435908e38a-192733646) Friday November 14, 2014 BREAKING: KRG and ‪#‎Baghdad‬ reached an agreement over oil and budget issue in which ‪#‎KRG‬ gives 150K barrels per day to Baghdad and Baghdad pays KRG $500 million. ** (http://www.iraqoilreport.com/news/baghdad-kurds-strike-temporary-oil-deal-13629/?utm_source=IOR+Email+Update+Subscribers&utm_campaign=435908e38a-Email_Update&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f9870911e6-435908e38a-192733646) ------------------------------------------------------------ http://www.iraqoilreport.com/news/baghdad-kurds-strike-temporary-oil-deal-13629/?utm_source=IOR+Email+Update+Subscribers&utm_campaign=435908e38a-Email_Update&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f9870911e6-435908e38a-192733646 ‪#‎Iraq‬ finance minister Hoshyar ‪#‎Zebari‬: Sending the salaries of the (KRG) employees is the condition of the visit by the KRG delegation (to ‪#‎Baghdad‬). ========= Hi Guys, Taken a wee while to absorb all the info that was presented yesterday - looks like the market has done the same. IMHO the most important information was imparted at the Genel capital markets day as it has implications for all the KRI players. The most important piece of information IMHO is that a KRG PSC is no longer to be regarded as sacrosanct. Genel have taken 2 of them and tossed them in the bucket. In their place they are in the process of creating a new type of PSC that amongst other things does away with Profit Oil and Cost oil as we know it and also kicks the R factor into touch. Instead of a single contract covering the disposition of all the hydrocarbons their contact splits the hydrocarbons into streams and each stream has a separate disposition. I must admit at first glance setting the KRI price for raw gas at 78 cents per mcf did not exactly have me turning somersaults given the amount of gas we have to deal with. A closer look at the Genel proposition has made me change my mind. Under the new contract Genel now get 100% of the oil until they recover 100% of their total costs for everything. The oil is then split 50-50. Note no R factor and intriguingly no mention of CBBT either. Genel get 100% of the condensate for the lifetime of the contract. Genel sell the gas to the KRG at 78 cents per mcft. The KRG have signed a contact with Turkey to sell them gas at $6.75 per mcfu i.e more than 8 times what they are paying for it. Meanwhile Turkey who are currently paying $12-13 for their gas will get gas from KRI at approx half of what they are currently paying. On the Capex front Genel have committed to $1b to pay for everything up to delivery of the gas to the processing plant while the KRG need $4b to build and operate the gas plant and any customer facing infrastructure.( apparently their are loads of Turkish contractors ready to step in here). The deal works better for those with more oil which suites Genel at Miran - less so for Bina Bawi so OMV have taken the opportunity to cash their chips and bow out. A decision I suspect not completely unrelated to the kicking they are getting as a 10% partner in Pearl. Genel propose to start with a horizontal well at Miran to tap the oil there first of all before drilling the gas wells. Win win all round. Turkey gets a 50% reduction in its energy bill for their Power Stations KRI gets really cheap gas with an export contact worth 8.5 times cost price while being able to provide domestic gas cheaply at a profit. Genel and their shareholders get a 15% return on the deal and TH is happy with that. What does that mean for GKP and the other contractors. From the Q&A it was made clear that this deal was made between Genel and the KRG without recourse or thought for the other contractors. What comes out of it for the other contractors is purely happenstance. The contact only works if Genel get paid for their oil. If Genel don't get paid for their oil then the KRI don't get the cheap gas and Turkey don't get a 50% cut in their electricity generation bill. This puts tremendous pressure on both the KRG and Turkey to get a solid payments mechanism in place as their benefits come at the back end of this deal so the quicker it is in place the better. This will benefit all the KRI contractors, us probably most of all. The breaking of the sanctity of the KRG PSC shows what is now possible. Your assets now have 2 or more valuations. They can be valued using the standard PSC which we all understand but there is now also a value for ingenuity as well for those that come up with more creative methods for monetising the assets. Not all the hydrocarbon streams have to be valued the same way under the PSC- Genel have shown this. Depending on the composition of your hydrocarbons there must now be an incentive for some operators to come up with a proposition that at the very least removes the "R" factor and, can we even whisper it, removes the CBBT as well. On the down side if you stick with the standard PSC and have a lot of gas then it becomes a liability, a cost if you like that we have to dispose of. The type of deal that was outlined yesterday by Genel was of a breadth,scope and imagination the we as GKP shareholders once thought would be generated by GKP when PW were hired for their expertise in this area. That did not happen, but now the ice has been broken, surely it is time to have another look at our assets and see if value can be enhanced by a more creative regime for their monitisation. At the very least the imperative that lies with the KRG and Turkey to get the payments sorted should see all the operators share price ourselves included head north. GLA BF ===== Emirates resumes Erbil flights on Sunday ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Emirates will fly into Erbil on Sunday for the first time since Islamic State came within kilometers of the regional capital this summer, the airline announced on Thursday. The United Arab Emirates carrier, the largest in the Middle East, was one of several airlines to suspend flights to Erbil “due to increased security concerns” when the Islamic State (ISIS) came within 25 kilometers of the city in early August, causing thousands of citizens in the city to panic and leave. US-led coalition airstrikes halted the ISIS advance, and the Iraqi Peshmerga have since re-established control over key areas near the city with international help, although the militants remain in control of Mosul 90 kilometers away. Emirates continued to fly to Basra and Baghdad throughout the period, and fellow Dubai-based airline flydubai continued flights to Kurdistan’s second city, Sulaimani. The carrier will offer two flights a week between Erbil and Dubai, which hosts the region’s largest airport, and provide four flights a week starting 4 December. “We have been closely monitoring the situation in Iraq and after a thorough review of all operational factors, we have decided to resume our services,” Emirates executive Sheikh Majid Al Mualla said in a press release Thursday. “The resumed service will be of particular benefit to passengers connecting to the GCC and points to the United States and Europe.” ==== Author 7Macca View Profile Add to favourites Ignore Date posted Friday 18:54 Subject BUY THE MOST UNDERVALUED OIL COMPANY IN THE WORLD!!!!!! (re post) Votes for this Posting BUY THE MOST UNDERVALUED OIL COMPANY ON EARTH By Christian A. DeHaemer | Thursday, November 13th, 2014 There is still an oil war going on in Iraq. Here are just a few of today's headlines: "Kobani Kurdish Forces Cut ISIS Supply Route From Raqqa, Take Back Part Of Strategic Hill" — International Business Times "Sen. Tim Kaine said Wednesday there's no legal authority for the current U.S. mission against ISIS in Iraq and Syria" — CNN "Fate of ISIS leader still unknown. — CBS News Oh yes, the decades-long oil war is still running hot — it's just been rebranded a little bit. ISIS, or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, is really the runt end of Saddam Hussein's Ba'athist army coupled with Tanzim Qaidat al-Jihad fi Bilad al-Rafidayn, known in America as Al-Qaeda. Together, they form a barbarous group of Sunni killers that are as evil as any that walked the earth. War for Oil But as usual, it's all about black gold. And this fight goes back a long way. In 1918, British troops invaded Mosul, Iraq in hopes of gaining control of the massive oil fields in the northern portion of the country. What they found was world-class reserves that could rebuild the British Empire left shattered after WWI. Oil Map of Iraq Source: BBC News The Brits created the Iraq Petroleum Company, which gave them a virtual monopoly on all oil exploration and production in Iraq. But it didn't last... In 1972, the monopoly was broken as Iraq’s oil sector was nationalized, banishing outside countries from access and giving Iraq full control of its oil rights for the first time since the early 1900s. And when Saddam Hussein rose to power in 1979, he was primed to take Iraq to the height of its oil glory. Yet, as usual, Saddam failed. Iraq could produce 12 to 16 million barrels of oil a day. Instead, on a good day, it pumps 3.5 million bpd. The reason for this is that Hussein purposely overlooked one of the largest oil fields in his OWN country — one that holds 13.7 billion barrels of oil: the SHAIKAN oil field. You can see it located up there on the map between Mosul and Kirkuk. And still, due to politics, war, or lack of funding... the massive oil resource in northern Iraq remains largely untouched. But that's all about to change, and soon... $1 Stock Corners the Wolfberry Shale A small oil company has taken over a huge swath of land in West Texas. It now has a stranglehold on a region that is producing nearly 2 million barrels per day, and it's only a matter of time before herd investors take notice. We cover all of the details — including the potential 1,000% gain — for this $1 stock right here. One Small Company There’s one tiny company that has its hands on the lion’s share of the oil in this profit-rich region of Iraq. And if that’s not enough, it also has the rights to three other prime chunks of oil-rich land in addition to the one I’ve been telling you about — and ALL of them have the very same oil-promising geography as the first. This company is already pumping 40,000 barrels of oil out of the ground on a daily basis, and that number is expected to more than quadruple within 18 months. All told, these guys are sitting on a whopping 13.7 billion barrels of oil — a true game changer for such a small company. To put that in perspective, Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD), a company with rights in the Eagle Ford, is sitting on 11 billion barrels of oil. Pioneer has a market capitalization of $23.87 billion. For those who don't know, “market capitalization” is the value you get when you multiply the number of shares outstanding by the price per share. It gives you the total market value of a stock. Another well-known company, Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO), has claimed 4.3 billion barrels of oil and has a market capitalization of $21.86 billion. Massive Value The company I'm talking about has a market capitalization of less than $1 billion, and yet it is sitting on 3.18 times the amount of oil Marathon has. That means this Kurdish oil company would have to go up by 2,208.34% just to equal one-third the valuation of Marathon Oil. That's absurd. Look, I'm very excited about this new profit opportunity. However, due to the time lag involved in the publishing process, my free research report won't be available until November 18, 2014 — less than one week from today. That said, if you would like to get ahead of the crowd, I've convinced my publisher to open a pre-order window that allows you to join my investment service, Crisis and Opportunity, today. Click here for access. Don't wait — yesterday, the stock jumped 11%. As ISIS fades (and this is already starting to happen), this stock will come roaring back off its five-year lows. All the best, Christian DeHaemer Since 1995, Christian DeHaemer has specialized in frontier market opportunities. He has traveled extensively and invested in places as varied as Cuba, Mongolia, and Kenya. Chris believes the best way to make money is to get there first with the most. Christian is the founder of Crisis & Opportunity and Managing Director of Wealth Daily. He is also a contributor for Energy & Capital. = No guarantees Baghdad-Erbil oil deal will stick ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Iraqi and Kurdish leaders struck a deal over the contentious issue of independent Kurdish oil exports in Erbil on Thursday, but analysts are skeptical this draws either side closer to a permanent solution. The deal involved an upfront payment of $500 million by Baghdad to pay the salaries of Kurdish civil servants. In return, Kurdistan would provide the federal government 150,000 barrels of Kurdish oil a day. “This covers the month of October,” Iraqi Finance Minister told Rudaw on Thursday. “In November, there will be another payment of $1 billion and the KRG will again hand over 150,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) to the federal government.” But until the money and oil are delivered, analysts remain cautious, remembering a similar deal that fell apart in March. “It is not a permanent solution, and it is dependent upon both sides implementing it - and this is not at all obvious that it will happen,” said Gareth Stansfield, an Iraq expert at the University of Exeter. Stansfield suggested that both sides were driven to the negotiation table by necessity. “Both sides were in appallingly weak positions,” he said. “It was this shared weakness that allowed them to find a stopgap solution – and that is just what it is.” Both the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the Iraqi Federal Government are suffering from fiscal pressures. The KRG hasn’t received its share of the national budget since January because of the oil dispute, and both sides are grappling to fund the fight against ISIS amidst falling global oil prices, with oil the largest source of revenue for both parties. The Kurdistan Region has exported 34.5 million barrels of oil since January, but after costs it’s net revenue was only $1.7 million. Before January, the KRG received slightly over a billion dollars a month, roughly 11 percent of the national income. “KRG oil exports, while quite significant, have been nowhere near the levels needed to generate the amounts needed to fund the KRG salaries and projects, the refugee crisis, and the expansion of the Peshmerga (or even the paying of the Peshmerga at a normal level),” Stansfield told Rudaw. “They have been quickly accruing significant amounts of debt and credit lines are becoming more and more difficult to find.” “The issues Baghdad face are similarly acute,” he added. “Due to mismanagement, corruption, and chaos, Baghdad is also financially broken, with very limited reserves, and with the bottleneck of oil in Basra limiting exports.” Other factors push both sides towards a deal. Baghdad and other western powers fighting ISIS has an interest in keeping Kurds engaged in government and ensuring a strong security situation in the country’s north, where Kurdish Peshmerga are defend a 1,050 km border against militant attacks. “Remember there’s huge pressure from the Americans to try and keep the country united and to make concessions to keeping Iraq unified while they all try and tackle the problem of ISIS,” said Michael Stephens of the Royal United Service Institute, a defense think-tank. “For now the last thing anyone needs is Erbil and Baghdad bickering over oil, there are bigger problems to solve,” and for that reason he believes “it will hold, for now.” Iraq’s new oil minister, Adil Adbul-Mahdi has had close ties with the Kurds in the past during his term as Vice President and during his time in exile. Zebari credited his “good” relationship with Abdul-Mahdi with having facilitated the agreement. But some remain doubtful that Prime Minister Abadi is interested in finding a permanent solution. “Abdul-Mahdi clearly wanted this, but it is important to note that the people talking about this, none of them are close to Abadi,” says Kirk Sowell, who runs newsletter Inside Iraqi Politics. “I don't see any indication Abadi is prepared to compromise on the lines [former lead negotiator with the KRG over oil policy] Hussein Shahristani laid down in the spring,” namely that the KRG sell the oil through the Iraqi marketing company SOMO, sell at global prices, and accept payment at the Development Fund for Iraq account at the Federal Reserve in New York. Sowell argues that it will only make economic sense for Abadi to strike a deal if the Kurds are selling more than 300,000bpd through the federal system. Likewise the KRG will need far more than $500 million a month to cover their costs, making this agreement only a partial fix for both sides. “It is a goodwill gesture to get [Kurdish Prime Minister] Nechirvan Barzani to come to Baghdad to negotiate,” Sowell says. This does' t necessarily mean that the deal will “open the way” for a lasting solution, as Abdul-Mahdi said in a statement on Friday. Barzani is set to arrive in Baghdad in the “coming days,” according to a KRG press release, where he will negotiate with Abadi himself. Only time will tell if he can accomplish the ambitious and challenging goal of reaching a “comprehensive, fair and constitutional solution to all outstanding differences between the federal government and the KRG.” ======= Appologies if already posted 10 German MPs unfurl PKK flag in parliament, urge lifting of ban COPENHAGEN, Denmark – Ten MPs from the left wing Die Linke party unfurled the flag of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) inside the German parliament building on Friday, urging the lifting of a ban on the group. The act was also in solidarity with fellow party member Nicole Gohlke, who lost her parliamentary immunity last month after waving a PKK flag at a Munich demonstration. That protest was in support of Kobane, the Kurdish town in Syria where PKK-affiliated fighters have been resisting an Islamic State (ISIS) takeover for some two months. “Instead of lifting Nicole Gohlke’s immunity, we urge the federal government to remove the ban on the PKK,” the deputies said in a statement. The German Bundestag waived Gohlke’s parliamentary privilege a month after she waved a PKK flag at an October 18 demonstration in Munich. "The Kurdish people have fought for freedom, democracy and human rights under this flag," she had said. The PKK, which fought a three-decade war for autonomy in Turkey after beginning peace talks last year, has been banned in Germany since 1993. It is also considered a terrorist organization by the European Union, the United States and the rest of NATO. But recent events have raised the PKK’s profile: in Kobane, the PKK-affiliated People’s Protection Units (YPG) have been supplied with some Western weapons and backed by US-led air strikes in the war against ISIS. “The ban against the PKK is now outdated,” Ulla Jelpke, one of the Die Linke MPs involved in the flag protest, told Rudaw. “The PKK is now an effective force struggling against ISIS, especially in Kobane. Therefore, they should immediately be delisted from the European Union’s terrorist list,” Jelpke added. But Tobias Huch, a Liberal Party MP, told Rudaw that, although he did not support the PKK, the unfurling of the flag highlighted the need for a discussion on the issue. “We have to re-examine whether the PKK really is a terrorist organization -- such as Hamas, whose flag is not banned in Germany ,” Huch said, referring to the hardline Palestinian movement. "In the context of Kobani, numerous reports were made revealing that large weapon shipments were delivered to the heavily armed battalions of the ‪#‎ISIL‬ by Turkey for the offensive on Kobani. One journalist, Serena Shim, would pay for her life for trying to document this. ‪#‎SerenaShim‬, a Lebanese-American working for Iran’s English-language Press TV news network, would reveal that weapons were secretly being delivered to the insurgents in Syria through Turkey in trucks carrying the logo of the UN World Food Organization. SerenaShim would be killed shortly after in a mysterious car accident on October 19 after being threatened by the Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT) for spying for the 'Turkish opposition.'" ======== Top officials meeting in Erbil see resumption of limited exports via SOMO, October payment to KRG as step in the right direction. Perhaps when the SP is 88.8p on Monday or Tuesday next week someone will buy 888k of shares. Is it a SINO things to come? to spread more light on the 6k trades (icebergs). GKP's 'normal market size' (NMS) is 15k. The LSE have 'rules' to not let any 'icebergs' be less than 40% of the NMS. Hence, 40% of 15k is 6k. Now we all know there is plenty icebergs at sizes less than 6k, these orders are more complex orders where the trade is executed via high frequency algorithm's where as soon as an order is filled it will immediately replace itself (a more complicated iceberg), typically institutional, or generally speaking 'complex' market orders. But, as a general basic rule, for basic orders, the LSE does not let you put an iceberg on the book at anything less than 40% of the NMS. Hope this helps. Have a great weekend one and all! ========= Halliburton can stump up $30 bln for Baker Hughes That’s if the $46 bln U.S. oil services giant finds cost cuts worth 5 pct of its rival’s sales, in line with past deals in the sector. Banding together makes sense in an industry downturn. And Halliburton could offset the risk of paying a potential 40 pct premium by using shares. Tax code, not bankers, deserves Congress's ire Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren reckons working on inversions rules Lazard’s top dealmaker Antonio Weiss out of a Treasury job. Such transactions may be dumb, but were neither unlawful nor unethical. It’s skewed rules that Washington needs to banish, not all of Wall Street. Review: Through a distorting mirror, darkly William Gibson’s novel “The Peripheral” paints future worlds that are built of present fears writ large. Algorithms not only roil financial markets, they travel in time. Nanotech eats people. Money corrupts and spies surveil (To keep under surveillance.), even more than now. Yet human decency has a chance. Breakingviews TV: NY's modern art bonanza Antony Currie and Richard Beales discuss this week's record $853 mln auction of contemporary works by Christie's – and explain how EU rules have helped shift the market to the Big Apple. Watch the view Follow Breakingviews on Facebook | Follow Breakingviews on Twitter Introductions If you have received this email from a Breakingviews user and would like to trial our service free, please click here Help If you are having problems with story links or for general help please contact us: EMEA/UK: +800 738 837 70 or +44 20 7542 5565 Americas: +1-800-738-8377 Asia: +612 9321 8140 Client Support: +800 8727 8326, rm.clientsupport@thomsonreuters.com ==== Capricorn-Sagittarius cusps (those born from December 22 to December 28) are considered to be slightly different from the typical Capricorn, being more outgoing, jovial and less ambitious and money orientated than the Capricorn who is not born on a cusp.[ In astrology, Capricorn is considered an earth sign. Modern astrological figure for Capricorn as a fish-tailed goat derives from the depictions of the Sumerian god of water Enki, who was associated with semen and amniotic fluid, and hence with fertility, and commonly represented as a half-goat, half-fish creature. Due to the precession of the equinoxes the December solstice no longer takes place while the sun is in the constellation Capricornus, as it did until 130 BCE, but the astrological sign called Capricorn begins with the solstice. The solstice now takes place when the Sun is in Sagittarius. The sun's most southerly position, which is attained at the northern hemisphere's winter solstice, is now called the Tropic of Capricorn, a term which also applies to the line on the Earth at which the sun is directly overhead at noon on that solstice. The Sun is now in Capricorn from late January through mid-February.[3]Precessional movement of the Earth – the Earth rotates (white arrows) once a day about its axis of rotation (red); this axis itself rotates slowly (white circle), completing a rotation in approximately 26,000 years. The relationship between the apses, seasons and precession of Earth's axis, as viewed from the north. The seasons indicated pertain to the Northern Hemisphere and are reversed for the Southern Hemisphere. The tilt of Earth's axis and the eccentricity of its orbit are exaggerated. The precession of Earth's axis as viewed from above north pole. The Equinox seasons pertain to the Northern Hemisphere and are reversed for the Southern. The tilt of Earth's axis and the eccentricity of its orbit are exaggerated but apisides of Earth's orbit are not. consequence of the precession is a changing pole star. Currently Polaris is extremely well suited to mark the position of the north celestial pole, as Polaris is a moderately bright star with a visual magnitude of 2.1 (variable), and it is located about one degree from the pole.[16] On the other hand, Thuban in the constellation Draco, which was the pole star in 3000 BC, is much less conspicuous at magnitude 3.67 (one-fifth as bright as Polaris); today it is invisible in light-polluted urban skies. The brilliant Vega in the constellation Lyra is often touted as the best north star (it fulfilled that role around 12,000 BC and will do so again around the year 14,000); however, it never comes closer than 5° to the pole. When Polaris becomes the north star again around 27,800, due to its proper motion it then will be farther away from the pole than it is now, while in 23,600 BC it came closer to the pole. Precession of Earth's rotational axis due to the tidal force raised on Earth by the gravity of the Moon and Sun. As a Cardinal sign, you are one of the leaders of the zodiac. It's your level head and wisdom that makes you that. Your ability to work consistently towards any goal also helps. driven and seems to have it together, who can keep their cool in the middle of mayhem, who's reserved but hot, odds are they are Capricorn. This doesn't mean that you are 100% bound to be a teacher yourself. But it does indicate that you are someone who can teach others lessons and also someone who learns by the lessons life A setback doesn't seem like the end of the world to you and even bad news is something you can deal with. It's far better to work with the truth than to live in some airy-fairy floaty world - for Capricorns. Some say you're a tad cold, but as far as you can see, there's enough mushy stuff in the world without you blathering as well! You are also the sign that relates most to the passage of time. You are aware and respectful of the past and you welcome change because you know it's progress. Some would see your ability to let the past go as cool bordering on cold. That's their lookout. You know better that the past is indeed over and the present and future is what counts. You are down to earth and an Earth sign for that matter and you are not at all afraid of taking on responsibilities. But it's not all work and building and constructive growth. Capricorns are as soft and mushy inside as the next human being, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise! November sees you all fired up about... pretty much anything and everything. This could make you into the person you've been trying so hard not to be – that angry one who stomps around when things go awry! OR you could use the energies to make some amazing changes in your life. Harness the good by breathing through any anger and/or releasing it via meditation or sport. Also release someone or something you've outgrown. See yourself as the amazing and powerful person you are, and you'll achieve big things. = The Capricorn Star Sign in Short Capricorns are lucky. They are the ones who look younger as they get older. They are very attractive and neat and once they get over their shyness they are quite aggressive. They can be trusted to keep a secret and are really great in emergencies. Sometimes they are a little bit impulsive but as their intuition is pretty strong, they usually make the right decisions. They’re creative, sensitive and patient. On a bad day they can be jealous, selfish and moody. They are very close to their family and are usually the last ones to leave home. More About Capricorn Capricorns are patient, realistic and responsible and they take life seriously. They need security but they may find this difficult to achieve. Many live on a treadmill of work, simply to pay the bills and feed the kids. They will never shun family responsibilities, even caring for distant relatives if this becomes necessary. However, they can play the martyr while doing so. These people hate coarseness, they are easily embarrassed and they hate to annoy anyone. Capricorns believe fervently in keeping the peace in their families. This doesn’t mean that they cannot stand up for themselves, indeed they know how to get their own way and they won’t be bullied. They are adept at using charm to get around prickly people. Capricorns are ambitious, hard working, patient and status-conscious and they will work their way steadily towards the top in any organisation. If they run their own businesses, they need a partner with more pizzazz to deal with sales and marketing for them while they keep an eye on the books. Their nit-picking habits can infuriate others and some have a tendency to ‘know best’ and not to listen. These people work at their hobbies with the same kind of dedication that they put into everything else. They are faithful and reliable in relationships and it takes a great deal to make them stray. If a relationship breaks up, they take a long time to get over it. They may marry very early or delay it until middle age when they are less shy. As an earth sign, Capricorns are highly sexed but they need to be in a relationship where they can relax and gain confidence. Their best attribute is their genuine kindness and their wonderfully dry, witty sense of humour. Capricorn at Work There won’t be any upset customers or partners as long as you are in charge of keeping relationships on solid ground. You are an expert at playing the diplomat and can turn an angry client into your greatest advocate within minutes of talking with them. Being as level-headed as you are has benefited your business in more ways than you realise. It allows you to consistently make the right decisions and if one of them doesn’t work out, you’ll learn from it and won’t ever make that mistake again. You are ambitious and hard working, though you do need to let someone else with a bit more pizzazz drive your sales and marketing strategies for you. Try not to get too caught up with the mundane day-to-day tasks that you tend to burden yourself with. It’s time to revive your interest by introducing some of those activities you’ve thought of doing for the past year and you should also try to bring out more of that wonderfully dry and witty sense of humour. =

Gulf Keystone Update

Posted on 13 March 2014. Tags: Akri-Bijeel, Ber Bahr, GKP, Gulf Keystone, Shaikan, Sheikh Adi Pages: 1 2 3 4 Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) has this morning provided an Operational and Corporate update, and released a third party audit of the Company’s reserves, contingent resources and prospective resources for its petroleum interests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Summary The Company continues to maintain current stable production and sales levels of approximately 10,000 barrels of oil per day (“bopd”) from the Company’s first Shaikan production facility (“PF-1″) in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, which is expected to increase in Q2 2014 as a result of the recently tied-in third production well, Shaikan-4, which is now flowing. The second Shaikan production facility (“PF-2″) is being commissioned, with two wells (Shaikan-2 and Shaikan-5) already tied in and the first production from PF-2 expected in Q2 2014. The Company remains focused on achieving the target of 40,000 bopd of production capacity from PF-1 and PF-2 in 2014. Since crude oil exports from the Shaikan field commenced in December 2013, in excess of 105,000 tonnes (690,000 barrels) of oil have been tendered and sold at international prices. The Company is expecting to receive payment, in line with the terms of the Shaikan Production Sharing Contract. In order to move to the next stage of the Shaikan project execution, the Company is making progress in its discussions on the near term debt financing options. Production and Development Shaikan (75% working interest; Operator) Stable production operations and sales from PF-1 continued in January, February and March 2014 at the level of approximately 10,000 bopd (gross). Total cumulative production from late 2010 to date from Shaikan has reached 2.1 million barrels. Since crude oil exports from the Shaikan field commenced in December 2013, three cargoes totalling in excess of 105,000 tonnes (690,000 barrels) of oil have been delivered from PF-1. The fourth cargo of approximately 33,000 tonnes (215,000 barrels) of Shaikan crude is expected to be delivered later in March 2014. In addition to the presently producing Shaikan-1 and Shaikan-3 wells, Shaikan-4 is now tied into PF-1, has started to flow and is expected to increase the current output in Q2 2014. An amine plant is currently being connected to PF-1, which will allow sweetening of some of the associated gas stream, which will be used as fuel for the PF-1 operations instead of diesel, representing savings of approximately US$400,000 per month to the project. The Shaikan-2 and Shaikan-5 wells have now been tied into PF-2 and the production facility is currently being commissioned with first production, initially of approximately 10,000 bopd, expected in Q2 2014. The connection of Shaikan-10 to PF-2 will also be completed in Q2 2014, increasing PF-2 production capacity. The Company is focused on achieving the target of 40,000 bopd of production capacity from PF-1 and PF-2 in 2014, which it intends to reach through: ◦Potential re-configuration of Shaikan-8, initially drilled as a gas injection well, into a fourth producer tied into PF-1 ◦Tie in of the deep exploration well Shaikan-7, which is currently being drilled, to become the fifth producing well at PF-1 ◦Productivity enhancement of the Shaikan-1 and Shaikan-3 wells through the replacement of the existing 3 ½” tubing by 4 ½” tubing ◦Plans to drill an additional production well in the proximity of Shaikan-10, which will also be connected to PF-2, and install four flowlines between the Shaikan-10 location and PF-2 The Company’s focus is on the ramp-up of commercial production from the existing Shaikan facilities. The move to 40,000 bopd of production capacity will allow further expansion of export crude oil sales. The additional cash generated, in addition to the Company’s near term debt financing options where the Company is making progress in its discussions, will facilitate the move to the next stage of the Shaikan project execution. This next stage envisages a further 60,000 bopd of additional production capacity in order to reach the medium-term target of 100,000 bopd set for Phase 1 of the approved Shaikan Field Development Plan. This next stage will require construction of additional production facilities with gas injection and water handling capabilities, as well as the drilling of a substantial number of development and production wells. Exploration & Appraisal Shaikan (75% working interest; Operator) The Shaikan-7 deep exploration well is currently drilling 17 ½” hole below 2,600 metres in the upper Triassic. Shaikan-7 will drill into the deep Triassic, after setting casing at the bottom of Kurre Chine B formation, and is then expected to penetrate the Permian with the first results expected in Q2 2014. Sheikh Adi (80% working interest; Operator) The first well to appraise the Sheikh Adi discovery, which spudded in December 2013, is drilling below 2,240 metres in the Alan formation in the Jurassic. A well testing programme to evaluate the potential of the Jurassic reservoirs in the Sheikh Adi footwall is currently being designed, before the well enters the Triassic. Approximately 111 km of new 2D seismic data acquired in the north of the block during 2013, is being processed to evaluate potential new structures. Ber Bahr (40% working interest) The Ber Bahr-1 exploration well was successfully side-tracked in the first half of 2013 and tested 2,100 bopd of 15 degree API oil from the Jurassic Sargelu formation. A 3D seismic survey is underway, planned for completion by mid-year 2014. Ber Bahr-2, an appraisal well, is planned to spud in the fourth quarter of 2014. Akri-Bijeel (20% working interest) Further to the declaration of commerciality of the block by the operator in 2013, appraisal drilling continues and work is ongoing on the Field Development Plan for the Bijell and Bakrman discoveries, which is expected to be submitted to the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq in Q2 2014 and approved later in 2014. The operator plans to complete four appraisal wells on the Bijell discovery and one appraisal well on the Bakrman discovery in 2014. Bijell-1B has been side-tracked, completed as a producer in the Sargelu formation in the Jurassic and tied into the Bijell Extended Well Test facility (“EWT”) where initial flow rates of 3,500 bopd of 23 degrees API oil have been recorded. The operator expects that production from the Bijell EWT facility will reach its full capacity of 10,000 bopd of export quality crude by the end of 2014. Bijell-2, a deep appraisal well targeting the Triassic horizons of the Bijell discovery, is currently drilling 12 ¼” hole below 4,750 metres in the Kurre Chine Anhydrite formation. Bijell-4, an appraisal well targeting the Jurassic horizons of the Bijell discovery, is drilling ahead below 2,800 metres in the Tanjero formation. Move to the Main Market As previously announced, the Company expects that its common shares will be admitted to the Standard Segment of the Official List of the United Kingdom Listing Authority (the “Official List”) and commence trading on the London Stock Exchange plc’s (“LSE”) main market for listed securities effective at 8.00 a.m. on or after 24 March 2014 (the “Admission Date”) (together the “Admission”), subject to the receipt of the necessary approvals from the UK Listing Authority and the LSE. Trading in the Company’s common shares on the AIM market of the LSE (“AIM”) will be cancelled simultaneously with the Admission. The Company will issue a prospectus in connection with the Admission prior to the Admission Date. As part of the Company’s move from AIM to the Official List, it is today publishing the Competent Person’s Report on the petroleum interests of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd and its subsidiaries in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (“CPR”), which has been completed by ERC Equipoise Ltd. This is the first third party evaluation of the Company’s Reserves, Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources for the Shaikan field and its other petroleum interests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (Sheikh Adi, Ber Bahr and Akri-Bijeel blocks). It is available on the Company’s website. Todd Kozel (pictured), Gulf Keystone’s Chief Executive Officer commented: “Progress achieved since July 2013, when we commenced commercial production from Shaikan, demonstrates that Gulf Keystone is evolving from an oil and gas exploration company to a production company targeting production capacity of 40,000 barrels of oil per day in 2014. “Another significant milestone in this journey is our forthcoming move from AIM to the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange and we are another step closer to achieving this goal after publishing the Competent Person’s Report today. “We see significant upside to this important baseline third party estimate of reserves and contingent resources, which will be targeted through the implementation of the approved Shaikan Field Development Plan in the coming months and years.” (Source: GKP) ================ 15% off m cap for 16 mill shares traded or 8 mill sold if you like , This is precisely the kind of atmosphere where people think if I just press that button it will all be over!......Were listing in a few days on the main market dont do something you might regret. If you are going to sell dont read this BB for opinions for help /advice make your own decision away from the PC over a cuppa and then do it if you think its right for you dont get caught up in the herd mentality on here. The derampers are going bananas today absolutelly bananas! Im not saying dont do it if you really have had enough but just be carefull in how you formulate the decision thats all. Luck all ============================= Well I have to say I am pretty astonished by people's reaction to the CPR: somehow spooked into selling. Still, provided the savvy a great opportunity to enter/top-up. The reserves quoted in the initial CPR were always going to be ultra-conservative. But that's not the point. Actually I was pleasantly surprised to see the CPR Shaikan OIP figure of 9.2 billion barrels. Sure it's not 13.7, but it is an independent audited third-party confirmation that, just as the company has been telling us for a while, we have found a super-giant multi-billion barrel oil field. The reserves figure quoted so far is just the tip of the iceberg. In time, as field development proceeds, there is no reason to suppose that an industry-normal recovery rate will not be achieved. Meaning that several billions of barrels will be added to the reserves. But that's not the point of the initial CPR. What the CPR does is put an independent audited third-party valuation on, not the company as a whole, but on the absolute minimum amount of oil that is guaranteed to be present, and recoverable using wells that have already been drilled. Why? To establish the value of an asset that can now be booked on to our balance sheet. Yes we can have a $1billion asset on our balance sheet! And that asset provides collateral for a loan. And with a full 75% WI in current sales, that loan does not need to be all that large to kickstart the development plan, as I have posted before. Good luck all long-term investors. Hold the nerve - we always said this road would be rocky! SilkStillDreaming ======================== Still digesting how the management allowed us to get into this position. One word that TK and JG were at pains to emphasise on Thursday was 'complex'. There is no disputing that this IS a complex project. They are both (and Ewan) keen to promote themselves to the big league and pay themselves the big salaries and bonuses. In my opinion they are out of their league. There is no question about the massive potential and upside of the 4 blocks but these guys do not have the experience to manage this project. I go along with I48's post today and hope that a predator takes a big enough share and removes the current management team. I presume that a technical audit, such as this CPR, would be discussed and the contents agreed with the customer prior to publication. The implication, therefore, seems to be that there was an extended period of argument and discussion with GKP board - a battle that our people finally lost, at least in respect of SH-6. JG, in response to Will Forbes, said the DGA/RS people had "been there every day" whereas the ERC people had "only looked at a couple of wells" - implying that their dataset was limiting their evaluation. This puzzled me - if true, surely the customer could have insisted on many more wells being evaluated in order to get a more accurate picture? Re. the Q&A session, I was amazed at the poor quality of analyst's questions - and at their lack of determination in getting full answers; Nlper, Ren and Bonobo did a much better job at the Paris AGM. ============ I was reading through the Edison report and looking at comparison of RF of Genel vs GKP. What confused me most was that Genel gets credited with a 20% RF whilst we are getting 12% on average. OK Different geology differnet places etc etc BUT When I compare our joint asset - Ber Bahr - Genel report a RF of 22% and GKP EDC are reporting around 6%. Now forgive me but surely its the same oil in the same place, but with 2 wildly different RF..... === Also noticed that the oil above the isotherm is not included in EDC. This accounts for 70% of the stoip difference between 18B from Gkp and the 13 from EDC. Or 3.5 billion oip. They are ignoring this because they say it's too tarry to flow. However for around $50-$100 million they can flow this oil using steam injection and blending. Even at 10% rf this would add 350million barrels of oil - and let's half it for arguments sake say 300 million b Resolve playground squabble on sh6 oil water contact and you add 300m depth and circa 300 million barrels Add to this genel RF of 20 - or let's take it lower and just say 16% and add another 200 million barrels You get to around 800 million barrels additional Now sh7 is hopefully light oil. They have been near this depth before Nd had to stop because pressure was off the scale - sh7 could be another 250m of light. (Ok. So looking a bit more then So all in all I think another one billion barrels will get firmed up within 12 months. If they find light oil in sh7 I bet you will see a change to the fdp. And 2 billion 2p+2c at $6 makes double digit billions on core NAV Now it's late and I may have units wrong - all off the top of head. But I'll work it out , or someone else can What would be interesting is to compare to CPR assumptions that genel use and read across to Gkp. Anyhow over 24 months I can't see a big geological issue preventing significant reserves upside. =========== There are people on this and other bb's who would have you believe that as a result of the CPR being published The Mighty Shaikan has shrunk and vast amounts of oil have disappeared. This is of course complete rubbish and it is just the nature of a CPR that only a very restricted and conservative amount of oil is recognised . In any event even on the CPR figures it is of a size that any major would give their right arm to own. I wonder what all those other companies are doing exploring for oil in Kurdistan. Why drill in hope when you could buy in certainty with GKP. We had all the fuss about appointing the famous four at the instigation of a couple of our institutional shareholders however this doesn't seem to have had the desired effect so far if we look at the sp. However one thing you can be absolutely certain about is that Deutche Bank (whom Simon Murray knows very well) will not have announced the move to the main market without having all their ducks in a row. The financial arrangements will have been sorted. The Mighty Shaikan is at an early stage of its discovery and recovery of its oil and it will be very interesting to see what reserve figure is credited to it in 2,5 and 10 years time because that's what the big boys will be bidding for. If you believe as I do that the Mighty Shaikan will prevail continue to hold or buy more on Monday. If you don't believe (and actually hold any shares ) then sell and move on to something you are comfortable with. ========================= Perhaps the ultimate irony now on this board, in that the 'TK to stay' crew are now an insignificant minority. I think you can count these club members on the fingers of one hand. I wonder if they'll still be so positive about GKP's future when the current top table are replaced, for surely they will be. We are truly sunk without hope if the main market doesn't trust the top table. I wonder how Todd feels this morning, fully in the knowledge that his only supporters now in the entire financial markets amount to not much more than a failed washing-machine salesman and a retired plumber? I wonder how Robert Kuok feels this morning, staring at his c.£15m paper loss - that is if he even still holds his 'slightly less than 3%' number of shares? Its taken a few years, but even i48 has finally seen the light and turned. Change will come, driven by the M&G4, Capital, and The City etc, who will surely gather strength, force an EGM to oust the value-destroyers and replace them with people they can trust. Texan cowboys will simply not be tolerated on the main market. The days of real accountability and building shareholder value on facts, not hype, have started, and we need a builder at the top - not a perma-tanned salesman - and I'm sure our BoD have known this for a very long time. From the moment change started and the M&G4 arrived, the BoD must have been planning their exit from the business. If not, then they've been very very very naïve indeed. Todd - if you really cared about your company, and its shareholders, surely you can see that it would be for the best if you chose to take a very long cruise on your super yacht sometime soon? Todd - do the decent thing. Take the deal and go. You know if you don't, it will simply be forced. ============ Re: I'm with you first thing Monday will be topping up GKP now a screaming buy … need to raise more cash quickly , can see a trip to the bank manager on the horizon this week --------- Opulentia, I do not know you. And I admire your enthusiasm. However, you have been calling this a 'screaming buy' all the way down. Now, many of us (including myself) have made the mistake of thinking it can go no lower. But with long term supports breached, no clarity of finance, hardline 'revision' of numbers (whether you agree or not), it is perhaps unwise to keep banging the 'screaming buy' drum, until the dust settles. I would certainly be wary of approaching your bank manager and possibly over-extending. I hope you can hold on to your shares until they all come back into profit, because your posts in 2014 alone provide a good illustration of the slow car crash that this investment has become (and perhaps how blinded retail investors - including myself - have often got) - 09.01.14 Little top up … with the good progress going forward, it would be rude not to Transaction type: Buy Executed Price: GBP 1.81625 21.01.14 some more golden tickets into my pot Transaction type: Buy Executed Price: GBP 1.807 29.01.14 Transaction type: Buy Executed Price: GBP 1.637 03.02.14 Nice little Top up, unbelieveably cheap , never thought id get some more golden tickets at these prices, really helps bringing average down Executed Price: GBP 1.568675 07.02.14 My top up this morning Price dealt: £1.6285 17.02.14 happy to add even at 156p 26.02.14 managed a top up this morning in the 140,s thanks Mr MM, 12.03.14 Transaction type: Buy Executed Price: GBP 1.4518 13.03.14 picked up a stack of shares at under £1.10. --- Many will try and call the bottom here. Could be 95p, 87p, 64p, 35p … depending on who you listen to. It might be wiser to ignore the prevailing SP and wait until the ship has been steadied (or a new captain placed at the wheel). Sincere good luck. ============================ Baghdad regains control in oil disputes Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki speaks in Baghdad on Jan. 12, 2014. (THAIER AL-SUDANI/Reuters) By Ben Van Heuvelen, Patrick Osgood, Rawaz Tahir, and Staff of Iraq Oil Report Published Thursday, March 20th, 2014Iraqi central government authorities have regained leverage in their long-standing oil disputes with the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).Just a few months ago, the KRG seemed poised to solidify the independence of its oil sector by sending crude through its new pipeline to the Turkish border. But those plans have been complicated both by scandals swirling around Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and by a newly assertive government in Baghdad.As more than 1.3 mill...

Exxon Woos Gulf Keystone

That's what makes a deal not unthinkable provided KRG agrees all Iraqi oil marketed as Iraqi oil, 1 marketer. does the $2.5b include both cost & profit oil? ladyboy21 7UP http://gulfkeystonepetroleumtakeover.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/exxon-woos-gulf-keystone.html Jan 17 Exxon Woos Gulf Keystone US oil supermajor Exxon Mobil is understood to have sounded out London-listed Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) over a possible deal that could value the Kurdistan-focused group at around £7bn. GKP has a market capitalisation of around £1.5bn and is listed on the junior Aim market, but its chief executive, Todd Kozel, believes the group could eventually go for double-figure billions. GKP is sitting on what is considered to be one of the world's great recent oil finds – Shaikan, about 50 miles north-west of Kurdistan's capital, Erbil – but the regional government is known to want a supermajor on board to properly fund and develop the field. It is thought that the board would not accept the estimated £8-a-share that Exxon is considering and that a number of other companies, perhaps including China's Sinopec and Californian giant Chevron, are monitoring the situation. There is even some speculation that an informal four-way auction for GKP might be under way, while it is also believed that the company has spoken to at least two smaller businesses about potentially developing its assets in a joint venture. Last month, it emerged that Exxon was the first of the oil industry's giants to enter Kurdistan, taking six licences. However, this has angered the government in Baghdad because there are old territorial disputes between Iraq and Kurdistan. Baghdad had threatened to terminate Exxon's existing deal in southern Iraq and it had been reported that the US giant might reconsider its licences in Kurdistan. However, the lucrative potential of the Kurdistan fields means that analysts expect Exxon will pursue opportunities in the semi-autonomous region and may already have taken additional positions to those licences previously revealed. There are suggestions that Exxon's interest in GKP was discussed at a board meeting 10 days ago and that initial soundings may have been taken at least six weeks ago. Last month, much of the oil world descended on Erbil for a conference that highlighted the extraordinary oil opportunities in Kurdistan, with Mr Kozel one of the key speakers. It is believed that Mr Kozel would be happy to sell up soon and has even started mulling over his next venture. The American businessman is one of the most colourful figures in the City and has a base of devoted retail investors who are waiting for a takeover of GKP to make them rich. GKP declined to comment. Exxon did not return calls. Posted 3 hours ago by Iain Jamieson Labels: bahamas oil, GENEL, gkp, GKP COURT CASE, gkp sold, gkp take over, gulf keystone, gulf keystone petroleum TTB. 'I believe fatigue has set in for a lot of people on here now. We now have more posters that would be happy with small figures such as sub 600p. Pre CC, this bb was positive about the future, expecting T/O prices north of 1000p. . . But do we need to see the de-ramping day in day out due to their feelings towards the bod/todd/company? I'm sure there's still some on here that blame Todd/Gokana for holding at 400p and not selling. Sorry to say but only the holder is the one to blame here. I held, I wish I'd sold but I didn't. I'm fine with that, my fault.' ---- Most of the impatience is down to the lousy state of the SP, so it's understandable. The thing that most people find difficult to do is create a clear mental distance between the *resource* and what value the *market* places on the Company as an entity. Some years back my wife bought a few thousand shares in a Company called Human Genome Science (HGSI). She bought in at 60 US cents and offloaded them at $1.09, happy to take the profit and move on to something else. Patience wasn't one of our virtues at the time and we didn't follow the stock's progress after selling it off. Within about a year HGSI had hit $30+, not exactly an everyday occurrence but as good as a lottery win for the lucky few who hold and buy at the right time. I'm not comparing GKP with the above, just pushing the virtues of patience if you know that the fundamentals are sound. In our case the fundamentals are resources that are in increasing demand by cash-rich multinational Corporations who will pay for what GKP have, not for what it is. Unless you're under financial pressure, separate the noise generated here from useful information, keep your eye on the goal and just wait. == Enrichment in Kurdistan TR_ISTA - 17.01.2014 12:12:38 Share: Before the new Iraqi constitution was adopted by both the federal and local parliaments and finally endorsed by the people in a referendum in 2005, Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani commented on the new constitution in a speech he delivered at a literature festival in Duhok. “Solid foundations were laid down for the safe march of the Kurdish nation towards the future. The time of hardship and violence is now over for both us and the governments which partitioned Kurdistan among themselves. They were unable to eliminate us; neither were we strong enough to defeat them. We fought; we preserved our presence. We fought; we preserved our identity. As the Kurdish nation, we would like to lay down a foundation that brings us independence. We would like to create a structure that will lead to independence in the end. If we compare this one to other constitutions, there has been no better constitution in Iraqi history. Our demand for the creation of a federation was well received. Kurdish has become an official language in Iraq. The peshmergas gained official status. The distribution of wealth and economic resources was regulated fairly, and now Kurdistan is able to use these sources. Until now, they have been used against us,” said Barzani. Nine years have passed since this speech. The Kurds have experienced many problems with the Iraqi central administration since then. But these disagreements have had nothing to do with the enjoyment of political rights and freedoms in the Kurdish federal region. As pointed out by Barzani, the federal Iraqi constitution was strongly and clearly devised, and as a result, there were no loopholes for arguments over rights and freedoms. But the actual disagreement was about the city of Kirkuk, whose status has not been defined yet, and the oil deals. The actual fight is being experienced in these areas. Even though no problems have arisen in terms of the 17 percent of oil revenues that were allocated to the Kurds, the central government has always argued that the deals the regional government has made with oil corporations are illegal. In the midst of these arguments, two different and separate authorities have emerged in Iraq in terms of the transport of Iraqi oil to global markets: the central Iraqi government and the regional government. We are living in a different age, in which nobody believes that political independence is sustainable without a reliance on rich resources. Federalism has already become a strong preference and choice, determined by a certain level of wealth for the European peoples, who are already familiar with freedom. Today, the rich resources and wealth of the Basque region determine the political relations and issues between the autonomous Basque region and Spain. The Basque people, who were against Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA) because it promoted independence, believing that it would be better if they stayed as part of a unified Spain, now say that they should hold a referendum on independence in an attempt to avoid the effects of the central government's debt. Even though Kurdish independence or autonomy is in essence a political matter, the sustainability of this independence or autonomy necessitates their control over the natural resources in the region. The future of Erbil and Kurdistan becomes possible only if the oil and natural gas resources are taken under control. The fact that Erbil and other Kurdish cities have experienced changes in a few years that might have taken place over a century is relevant to the enjoyment of these riches by the Kurdish people. It is estimated that the per capita income will reach $40,000 in a region with 5 million people by 2020. This means the achievement of standards akin to those in Canada and Norway. Given that Iraq's oil production capacity will increase from 2 million barrels to 10 million in a few years, the real reason for the disagreement in Iraq becomes crystal clear. How important is this issue for the strategic alliance between Erbil and Ankara and political relations between Turkey and Kurdistan? I will discuss this in the next column. ORHAN MİROĞLU (Cihan/Today's Zaman) Coal reserves in #Pakistan may generate 10,000 megawatts of electricity for 350 years, says #ADB

Pure speculation: From stranglehold to stampede?

Could it have gone something like this...

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It seems obvious to me that the KRG will have wanted to “sign” a US major as soon as the size of Shaikan became obvious. They could well have been in discussions with let’s say Exxon early in 2011 or even before. Now who would have “the upper hand” in these discussions? Clearly Exxon would be keen for a slice of the Kurd action, but perhaps not half as keen as the KRG would be to get Exxon onside, developing Shaikan, “legitimising” the other KRG contracts, and strengthening the strategic alliance with the US. So Exxon, rather than falling over themselves to sign up with the KRG, and putting at risk their contracts and relationships with the ICG, may have extracted a good deal from the KRG along the lines of: help us secure Shaikan/GKP at a good price (no more than £8 per share) and when the time is right we’ll sign up for a number of other Kurd licences. In parallel Exxon get their city allies to keep the GKP sp in check so that £8 seems like a good deal premium. Perhaps Sanddunes got wind of this on 10 July, assumed that it was a foregone conclusion that GKP would indeed be sold for £8 per share, and posted his famous “shafted for £8” on iii. Todd also got wind of it and realised that were a hostile bid to be launched he might not have enough supporting votes to resist. So on 20 Sep, despite being “fully funded”, he decided to go for a significant placing of 90m shares (at £1.40) to “sympathetic” buyers whose votes he knew he could rely on. Todd also got his skates on beefing up the NEDs, appointing Lord Guthrie on 3 Oct to help him avoid foul play. And of course GKP continue to “drill baby drill”, to prove up what we have in the ground and show the doubters that £8 is not enough. Hence Sh5 spudded earlier than expected on 28 Oct and major OIP upgrade announced on 8 Nov. Meanwhile Exxon are not hanging around either. They follow through on their deal making with the KRG and agree to purchase the Shaikan 3rd party option and/or back-in rights at a $pb price that would imply a valuation of GKP at around $7b (or £8.30 per share). And sign for 6 other licences. The rumour mill picks up the story and the IoS/Leftly back it up. The KRG wrong-foot everyone proudly announcing on 14 Nov that Exxon have taken 6 new licences! Using the 3rd party deal price as leverage/evidence of value, the KRG then “sound out” GKP and pressurise them to accept a similar $pb deal from Exxon for the whole of GKP. They also attempt to get major shareholders on-side for this deal. But GKP decline, insisting the company is worth double-figure billions. (These events form the basis of the IoS story on 18 Dec which Leftly admitted probably took place several weeks earlier.)(They also resonate with CJ’s assertions that “moves have been afoot to get shareholders on side to accept a lower figure”). Todd fights back making it clear he wants to see an auction, and will not yield to the first bidder. On 25 Nov he appoints NED Mark Hanson to bring the Chinese into the fray. Rumours continue to build and on 18 Dec the IoS/Mark Leftly run their “Exxon woos GKP” story. Hanson reports back to Todd that the Chinese will not enter the bidding unless they are assured there is not already a done deal and can see a level playing field – in particular that GKP is not already in detailed discussions with the US majors. TK isn’t – so he lets the Chinese and any other potential bidders know that he is “not in discussions over the sale of the company” in the denial RNS of 19 Dec. And to emphasise the point that there is plenty more oil to bid for GKP announces the early spud of Sh6 the very next day 20 Dec. JG also lets it be known that he expects at least 2 more major upward revisions to the Shaikan OIP figures. I think he also talked up Ber Bahr comparing the early drill results there to the findings at Sh1. Other shareholders also realise that they need to help Todd fight his corner. Numerous “valuations” are proffered. And 20 Dec also saw the release of GRH’s famous satellite oil maps. Exxon begin to realise that to secure the prize, a high profile offer is needed swiftly. They go for $19b and get US SD backing. (See CJ 9 Jan). But that bid is quickly over-trumped by 23% another US major. (CJ) And the chinese haven't even put their first bid in yet.... ================ Author scaramouche View Profile Add to favourites Ignore Date posted Wednesday 14:06 Subject Each and Every one....... Votes for this Posting Voted 137 times. Message I can see that there are now 2000+ posts on this board every day... and the worldwide interest in GKP is growing by the minute! But with so many posts it is not always very easy to ensure that we are all ‘on the same page’ as far as our understanding goes. There have been some great posts recently about the responsibility of the Board to keep us fully informed on any key developments, and I am sure that they are making every possible effort to do so. However, like so many on here, I see at as absolutely essential that the Board and Investor Relations are made aware of the CONCERNS that many of us have regarding TRANSPARENCY and ASSURANCES..... that we will NOT find ourselves suddenly presented with an OFFER that WE, quite literally, CANNOT REFUSE! With this in mind, I have decided to write to GKP directly as follows, to try to address a number of points that are increasingly being discussed on this board. The note that follows contains TEN QUESTIONS, some or all of which might strike a chord with many on here. And I would simply ask each of you to consider whether it might form the basis of an email that you could also send to the company, to help ensure that everyone receives the assurances they need. *** IMO, this is all about communication, and it is the ONLY way that we can guarantee that everyone is getting exactly the same information *** I fully appreciate that you may not agree with some/any of the questions, might have some of your own, or disagree with it completely as a concept. But, as I believe that we are now approaching the end game, I would like to think that all sharholders will consider doing something to make sour that thier opinions count. In any event, I sincelry hope you find it useful as a basis on which to formalise your own thoughts. If the feeling I detect on here is anything to go by, I would like to think that if many people were to contact GKP directly, it could prompt them to find a more effective means of ensuring that both their concerns, and those so clearly expressed by CJ and others, are fairly dealt with. The “non-denial denial” RNS was in my view far from adequate and has simply served to add fuel to the fire! So, below is my proposed email to IR/Todd Kozel/whoever.... GLA, scaramouche ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Dear Mr. Kozel, As a long-standing holder of GKP shares and continued supporter of the company and its Board of Directors, I would appreciate it if you could respond to the following list of questions which, given both press reports and information widely discussed on many investment forums, are currently causing me some degree of concern. 1. Are there (or have there been) any DISCUSSIONS with major oil companies regarding the sale either of the Company as a whole, or its interests in Shaikan? If there are indeed, as mooted, a number of such discussions (even at an early stage), I understand that the LSE rules for AIM stipulate that shareholders must be made aware of this at the earliest possible opportunity. 2. Have any BIDS been put forward either for the Company or any of its key assets and, if so, what figures have already been flatly rejected? While I appreciate that the specific details cannot be provided, I do think that shareholders should have an appreciation of what the Board sees as a “floor” in any possible negotiations, in order to help manage their own expectations. 3. Can I please have your personal assurance that there is no truth in the rumour that THE KRG is exerting any undue influence on the Board to accept a preferred bidder? It is widely recognised that Iraqi /Kurdish politics are very delicately balanced and price-sensitive, but I am sure that you will agree with me that it would be unfair on shareholders if any FREE AUCTION was to be undermined by external forces. 4. Can you please confirm if the sale of GKP’s share in the AKRI-BIJEEL licence is still expected, and if the time-table for that sale that you referred to in September has been altered as a result of the disappointing results from Bekhme-1 recently announced by MOL? There has been nothing in the latest RNS’s to suggest that the situation has changed, but we have now reached your original anticipated deadline. 5. In the event that a BID is made for the COMPANY or SHAIKAN, can I have your personal guarantee that shareholders will be immediately informed of it? I would also like your confirmation that all shareholders will be made aware of which bidders are involved in any subsequent bidding process, their initial offers, and any significant changes arising to those offers, thereby ensuring complete transparency and strict adherence to the AIM rules and those of the Takeover Code. 6. Given the swiftly increasing OIP figures from the ongoing drilling activities on each of the Company’s blocks, and therefore rapidly RISING VALUE of GKP’s assets, can I have your assurance that the Board will not with-hold any available information that is likely to have a significant influence on its share price or on prospective valuations or bids for the company. In this context, I assume that, should any proposed sale of the company be announced, its shareholders will receive sufficient information as to the latest Operational status, on all of the company’s licences, on which to base their DECISION as to whether or not to accept a proposed offer. 7. In the event that the Board RECOMMENDS acceptance of a BID which is, at least on a ‘prima facie’ basis, less favourable than an alternative offer, the Board will inform shareholders fully as to the REASONS behind their recommendation. 8. I am sure that no member of the Board of Directors would ever ACCEPT any form of inducement, nor OFFER any inducement to any parties interested in the ultimate destination of any of GKP’s assets. But can I please have your cast-iron guarantee that you would immediately respond appropriately should this ever prove to be the case. 9. I would also appreciate an understanding of the TIME-TABLE that the Board will seek to follow in the event that a BID is made for the company, the approach to any ensuing auction, and any actions that should be taken to ensure that I and all other shareholders have ample time in which to make our decisions. I would like to think that, for a company with such massive and diverse assets as GKP has, no ‘offer’ would ever be presented to its shareholders as, in effect, a ‘fait accomplit’. 10. Please could you ensure that shareholders are provided with an UPDATE as to the status of GKP’s Algerian assets, the proposed addition of a third Non-Executive Director, and the previously announced intention to join the FTSE as, to my knowledge, nothing has been communicated on these subjects for some time. While I am sure that it can almost be taken as read that the Board of Directors will actively ensure that it always acts in the best interests of shareholders, it is I think important to obtain your confirmation that my understanding is the same as yours in respect of Each and Every One of these matters. Kind regards, XXXXXXXX ============= Iraq aims to reduce IOC red tape Passengers wait to go through customs at Baghdad International Airport. (MOHAMMED AMEEN/Reuters) By BEN LANDO of Iraq Oil Report Published January 13, 2012 Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has ordered the government to remove many of the bureaucratic roadblocks that have slowed foreign oil companies over the past two years. Iraq Oil Report has obtained a copy of Maliki's directive, ordering six key government institutions to implement the recommendations made to Maliki by Iraqi Oil Minister Abdul Karim al-Luaibi in a letter dated Oct. 11, 2011. If implemented, the new guidelines will help companies avoid logistical problems such as visa delays and... ================ Bidders sought to build Kurdistan pipeline SUNDAY 15 JANUARY 2012 Gulf Keystone Petroleum has invited bidders to build a pipeline that would allow the much-watched oil & gas company to export vast supplies of black gold from its key Kurdistan field. This pipeline would have the capacity to handle 500,000 barrels a day. There is also an option to build a second pipeline, of similar capacity, which would ramp up production to a million barrels a day. That would be more than 1 per cent of the world's oil needs and explains why super-majors are running the slide rule over the company. =============== Author scaramouche View Profile Add to favourites Ignore Date posted Tuesday 20:24 Subject Just as the line went dead.... Votes for this Posting Voted 83 times. Message Allegedly.... 18 October 2011... JG: Todd, I’ve got Rex on the phone for you. TK: You know I’m not prepared to talk to that man after what he has put us through this year! JG: No, not Wempen.... Tillerson! TK: Oh, okay that’s different. Put him through. RT: Hi Todd, as I expect you know I’ve just become one of your neighbours! Anyway, I was just thinking. You know you have a few problems at the moment – wife trouble, some legal case, and your share price stuck at around 150p. Well, I understand that you have discovered about 11.8 billion barrels of OIP in Kurdistan, with an estimated TWO BILLION barrels of Reserves attributable to GKP. What would you say to an offer of about $5 per barrel for....? -----The phone line inexplicably goes dead ----- TK (to JG): What is it about people called Rex, eh John - are they all out to ‘shaft’ us? Make damn sure that everyone knows that I am NOT ready to sell the company.... and certainly not for anything less than double-figure billions. Oh, and I’m talking Pounds sterling here, not U.S. dollars! JG: Okay Todd, I’ll get on to it right away. TK: By the way, John - get that latest Operational update out pretty damn sharp! Those revised OIP figures should make a few more people sit up and take notice! 8 November 2011... JG: Todd, Rex T is on the line again. He says he has seen the update showing 10.5 billion barrels at Shaikan. He understands that you now have about 2.5 BILLION barrels of reserves and he is thinking about offering $6 per barrel, plus a payment in lieu of all the costs to date and cash in the bank. TK: Jeez, what is it with these people – do they ever give up? Tell him I’m busy interviewing for some Non-Execs at the moment. 19 December 2011 (at a secret location)... US Major Exec: Rex, I’ve got that State Department approval for the move on GKP. They’ve agreed to that $19 billion you were ready to offer for GKP. The trouble is that some guy from Chicago seems to have got hold of the story, and only yesterday a journalist from the British newspaper, the Independent, has also written a story about it. RT: Dammit, I thought we could keep this all safely under wraps. I’d better ring Kozel. ----- RT picks up the phone ----- JG: I’ve got Rex on the line again. TK: Jeez, he doesn’t half pick his moments. I was right in the middle of a Chinese takeaway. Tell him I’ll phone him back after I have had a good look at those latest SH-4 results. Mmmmm..... 2375m of gross pay. Talk about “an oilman’s dream” – this is becoming more fantastic every day! 17 January 2012.... JG: Todd, I’ve got Rex on the phone again – he doesn’t sound very happy at all! He says that a journalist called Tamsin has recently mentioned the ‘S’ word in one of her articles, and hinted that the Chinese might be about to show their hand. TK (nervously): Okay, John. Put him on. RT (coldly): Todd, anyone would think that you have been avoiding my calls! When we last spoke, I enquired what you would say to $5 per barrel of Reserves, and then I suddenly got cut off. I know you’ve now got much higher numbers to talk about and Global interest in GKP, so I’ve now got a much higher offer to discuss with you. In fact, I’d also like to say that I now have irrevocable undertakings from almost all of the Institutional holders to agree to the offer. So, I suppose you could say that GKP is pretty much ‘sold’. TK: I have to congratulate you Rex. So close to SH-4 and BB-1 results, and not too far away from confirming the OWC level with SH-6, and you seem to hold all the cards. What a day – and just when my divorce has finally been settled. Ashley pretty much wiped me out, you know, and she now holds about 2% of MY Company. Amazing, eh! If you think I’m a ‘tough American businessman’, you want to try dealing with my ex-wife – she can be even harder to bargain with, I can assure you! And as for those pesky PIs, they’ve been talking about a ‘FAIR AUCTION’ for GKP... for what seems like ages. I can hardly wait for it all to be over. ----- Once again, the line went dead ---- It would certainly be a good story IF this was what had really happened, wouldn’t it - Not saying it did, mind you! GLA, scaramouche ========================== 70% Jump in US Companies Considering Iraq Posted on 18 January 2012 The Iraqi Embassy in Washington DC dealt with nearly 5,000 applications from American companies hoping to do business in Iraq last year, a 70% jump from 2010, according to an article from Chicago Business. Among the companies mentioned are the Schaumburg, Illinois-based manufacturer Quality Float Works Inc., which mades devices to control liquid flows in machinery. Another is Navistar International, whose subsidiary Navistar Defense supplied the U.S. military with about 9,000 trucks during the occupation. Now it’s aiming to become a commercial truck supplier. Northbrook, Illinois-based NewMedical Technology Inc., which makes a scar-reducing gel, is diving into what company Vice-president Jeff Dziura described as “cumbersome” regulatory paperwork in order to sell in Iraq. (Source: Chicago Business) (Picture: Navistar) ============== Luaibi to Iran for Hormuz threat talks Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari (left, C) and his Iranian counterpart Ali Akbar Salehi (right, C) smile as they attend an official meeting in Tehran June 21, 2011. (MORTEZA NIKOUBAZ/Reuters) By BEN LANDO AND STAFF of Iraq Oil Report Published January 18, 2012 As tension between Iran and the West increases, sparking a threat by Tehran to shut down the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers in response to increased economic sanctions, the president of OPEC and Iraq's Oil Minister, Abdul Karim al-Luaibi, is attempting to head off a crisis. "On this occasion, tomorrow (Jan. 19) I am going to visit the Islamic Republic of Iran and we are going to discuss with our brothers the officials there about issuing important and real assurances to the world that all ar... ============== Author scaramouche View Profile Add to favourites Ignore Date posted Sunday 20:19 Subject Before the Curtain comes down.... Votes for this Posting Voted 197 times. Message For some time, I have been conscious of the statement often mentioned on this board and made by Marius Kloppers. CEO of BHP Billiton, the largest mining company in the world. As a reminder, in July 2011 he stated that their < Billiton’s> $12.1 billion bid for Petrohawk Energy Corp. should be valued against the gas and oil assets in the ground rather than the U.S. shale gas company's share price”. I have also been constantly aware that, as far back as 31 August 2010, the phrase “drill, baby, drill” was coined by broker Daniel Stewart, since when GKP has clearly been trying to ensure that as many drills as possible are happening at the same time. It is therefore very obvious from these statements that the more oil RESERVES (Assets) that GKP can prove up, the higher should be the real value of the Company. The missing factors for our Valuation are surely then just the DOLLARS PER BARREL OF RESERVES that our suitor(s) might be prepared to pay, and the TIME LEFT for proving it all up. With this in mind, I find it quite puzzling that many posters on these boards, and even analysts such as the chap from VSA capital in the recent Proactive Investor’s video http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/987 repeatedly attempt to relate the potential return that shareholders might get to the prevailing SP. It makes no sense to me at all! Anyway, as an exercise, I thought I would take a look at how our assets have risen in recent times and how this could correlate with the many rumours and SP guestimates posted, as well as the claim that Exxon have had the “very best best block in Kurdistan” RESERVED for them. Although this is quite a long post, I hope you find it interesting.... 1. For most of 2010, GKP had just 4.2 BILLION OIP (P50) from Shaikan which, with an estimated one-third (33%) Recovery Factor and a 54.4% Net WI in Shaikan, would have given them Reserves of 750 MILLION. The oil price was about $75 which would have given us approximately a net $6 per barrel, based on what we understand today. To allow ‘something for the next man’, $4 per barrel could therefore easily have taken us out. A $3 Billion oil reserves valuation, little cash, and return of costs amounting to $200-300 million - and we would have been ‘worth’ about $3.2 billion had the For Sale sign been up. For the then 675 million shares in issue it represented $4.75 per share (or about £3). *** How many of you can remember how those with a less than positive view on GKP would tell us then that we would be taken over for at best 300p per share? *** 2. Then came the October 2010 placing, taking shares in issue to about 750 million. This was soon followed by a 2.4 BILLION (P50) oil discovery by MOL at Akri-Bijeel, giving us another 100 MILLION of ‘estimated’ reserves, or a new total of 850 MILLION. The Oil price was heading inexorably for $100 which would give us a net $7.80 profit per barrel. So, if in early 2011 we had upped the sale price valuation to, say, the $5.90 per barrel of reserves implied by the Vallares/Genel merger http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-07/vallares-agrees-to-merge-with-genel-in-2-1-billion-share-deal.html ... GKP’s 850 MILLION of attributable reserves would have become worth about $5 BILLION. Adding recoverable costs and cash in the bank, we would probably then have been looking at a ‘sale’ valuation of $5.5 BILLION (£3.7 billion).... or about £5 per share. **** And the de-rampers were at it again, proclaiming “you’ll never get more than 500p” ***. 3. We were all however really waiting on Shaikan-2 and, when the results came in April 2011, we saw the OIP figures jump to 7.5 BILLION (P50), and so too our attributable Shaikan reserves to 1.36 BILLION. The TOTAL RESERVES had therefore risen to around 1.46 BILLION, and the oil price was now firmly in the $100+ range. On that basis, GKP could conceivably have been taken out as follows: 1.46 BILLION reserves x $5.90 per barrel = $8.6 billion (£5.7 billion). Add in cash and recoverable costs totalling £300 million, and you have a total of £6 BILLION... or £8 per share for the 750 million shares then in issue. *** How often did we then have that supposed ‘pie in the sky’ of 800p drummed into us, I wonder? *** But then, it was as if everything changed.... 4. In JULY, Sanddunes came up with his infamous ‘shafted for £8’ post, and the doom-merchants still insisted that everyone was crazy if they thought we would get that more than £5. Of course, they could have been right had we been looking exclusively at the prevailing SP of about 150p.... but NOT if we based our evaluation on the ASSETS IN THE GROUND. In AUGUST, we had “preliminary” figures of 1.9 billion OIP (P50) for Oil found at Sheikh Adi. This added about 500 MILLION to our estimated Reserves figures – but the SP went down! In SEPTEMBER, TK said that our share in Akri-Bijeel was for sale and Ewen hinted that we could expect several hundred million dollars, which would be reasonable for 100 million or so recoverable barrels. But we needed Bekhme results first, and Bekhme-1 seemed to be drilling forever. There was virtually no impact on the SP ! Also in SEPTEMBER, we had an unexpected placing, taking shares in issue to 850 million.... mainly I think because TK wanted the drills to keep turning and our OIP figures to rise – curiously, the SP fell well below the placing price of 140p for quite some time! *** A total now of nearly TWO BILLION estimated Reserves, £120 million of new funds, and yet we still had a MARKET CAP of only just over £1 BILLION - something clearly didn’t make sense ***. Then, in OCTOBER we started hearing rumours that Exxon had moved into Kurdistan, and that other majors were likely to follow. The KRG confirmed the rumour on 13 NOVEMBER 2011 when they told us about the 6 exploration licences Exxon had signed for.... but not about the best block ever that the VSA capital analyst recently said had been “reserved” for them... presumably SHAIKAN! And also in NOVEMBER, GKP announced a further 3 BILLION upgrade to 10.5 BILLION (P50) at Shaikan, giving about 550 MILLION extra estimated reserves. Perhaps this was designed to remind Exxon and others that big OIP upgrades could happen at any time. By this time GKP’s total estimated reserves were a staggering 2.5 BILLION, and we would have been ‘worth’ $14.7 billion at $5.90 per barrel of reserves, plus cash and recoverable costs of about $500 million, which converts to somewhere close to £10 BILLION! (Note: Had Bekhme-1 come in as originally expected with a further 200 MILLION of attributable reserves, we might even have been looking more closely at at Nobletrader’s $16.5 Billion bid rumour). 5. On 19 DECEMBER 2012 we saw the famous Mark Leftly article in the Independent on Sunday... which essentially demonstrated the problem for any possible buyer. In October 2011, GKP could perhaps have been valued at £7 BILLION (800p per share), but the upgrade in November had surely taken it into... “double-figure billions”, eh Todd! No wonder, any ‘sounding out’ was unlikely to have got past first base. It is interesting too to see our friend from VSA capital popping up again in this article of the same date http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/12/19/analysts-weigh-exxons-possible-kurdistan-oil-play/ Extract: A bid by ExxonMobil for Kurdistan-focused explorer Gulf Keystone “wouldn’t be out of kilter at all,” says VSA Capital analyst Malcolm Graham-Wood, who points out the 800 pence a share offer price first referenced in an Independent on Sunday article would be at the top end of most valuations. But was there a time-lag here perhaps, as any possible bid would surely have to take account of the latest upgrade - perhaps an element of Managing our Expectations? 6. NOW, at nearly 2.5 BILLION of reserves.... GKP might be estimated to be worth something like £10 Billion (or $15.5 billion). But, what is the betting that, in the short-term, what is already known about Shaikan (from SH-4) will take us quickly up to CJ’s $19 billion on that same $5.90 per barrel basis? Indeed, could the imminent news expected from BB-1 or SH-5 even move us 23% higher towards CJ’s subsequently revised figure? In conclusion, I can’t help thinking that the apparent change of approach (which seemed to begin in about July 2011 may have signalled a set time-frame.... during which GKP was required to prove up as many reserves as it could. Could that deadline be approaching very fast? JG said recently he expected another 2 upgrades, which may see us getting the results first from SH-4 and SH-5, and then hopefully SH-6 should be the icing on the cake. But isn’t it ironic that we spent almost the whole of 2010 and 2011 failing to respond to the FACTS in our RNS’s, and the SP is now only just beginning to react to what seem like albeit credible RUMOURS? Finally, did anyone notice that our friend from VSA capital also said about Exxon... ”and they wouldn’t have gone in there if the STATE DEPARTMENT had said it was going to be a problem (at 4.10 into the Proactive Investor video”).... just before a sideways glance to the camera which suggested to me that this was the line he really wanted to get in! Are we essentially saying that there is State Department approval for the US Major, as has also been rumoured on here. Maybe this is what all the rumours are pointing to. Exxon is about to be proclaimed the preferred bidder and their price, just like Tony Hayward’s, is about $5.90 per ‘proved-up’ recoverable barrel. And maybe, just maybe, we have only a little more time.... before the curtain comes down. The recent spate of buying, and sequence of recent RNS’s, suggests to me that this could well be the case. GLA, scaramouche ======================== By Gavin Jones, Director of Iraq Business News, and Partner at consultancy firm Upper Quartile. This article was originally published on the Emerging Economics blog. Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News. It is very difficult with a market like Iraq to separate current issues, past progress and likely consequences. Since mid-2009 there has been significant achievement and progress, a sustained period of calm which now, sadly, is turning into what will probably be a very violent period as the actions and indecisions running up to the last election start to be resolved. Let us take a quick look back at what has been achieved by the Iraqi Government: Two licence rounds that were very much more transparent than most in Western countries; Production has increased from about 2 million barrels of oil a day in 2009 to about 3 million today and is increasing rapidly; 14 IOC’s (International Oil Companies) and hundreds of service companies operating in Iraq; $43 billion in foreign investment during 2010 with numbers showing about twice that expected in 2011. The Central Bank of Iraq has a surplus of $50 billion The contracts being awarded are massive, but it is not clear to me that many companies are making much in the way of profits in the country because the operating costs are so high. If companies cannot generate earnings commensurate with the risk, they will leave – especially with the price of oil rising quickly. However despite the achievements there are significant problems, some of which have been highlighted already, but it is important to understand the likely out-turns of what is going on in this re-emerging economy. There are a few facts that, in my view, are driving what you are seeing in Iraq now; these are: The Shiite-Sunni divide has been a fact in Iraq that has never gone away. Facts, so the expression goes, are stubborn things and 1,300 year-old facts are especially stubborn. The US must bear some of the blame for encouraging and playing a part in managing a coalition of Maliki and Allawi and excluding the Sadrists from this Government – it was understandable but silly and this is a large part why we are seeing this violence. For a fuller explanation it is worth visiting the website of historiae.org, a direct outlet for historical research on topical issues in world politics and reading their view of the role played by Christopher Hill, the US Ambassador in Iraq. The US troop withdrawal was set in motion 3 years ago but it was the process which was more interesting than its outcome. Maliki was seen to be in favour of then against the withdrawal and then used it as an opportunity to set-up Allawi, for a fall. A critical element in the stability and growth of the country was turned into a political battlefield. The US military pulling out does not mean that the US will have a reduced presence – the US Embassy will continue to have an astonishing 15,000 and 16,000 staff in Iraq and about 5,000 armed contractors guarding them. This will be the USA’s largest diplomatic presence in the world. From an oil and gas industry perspective, Exxon-Mobil’s decision is interesting; this is a company which does analysis and assessment very well, they picked 6 of the most sensitive blocks that were possible to pick for their very public venture into Kurdistan. When Maliki started talking to the US Government about Exxon’s presence this turned from a commercial decision to a political / security one. It was a good call by Exxon and they may well get away with the decision – and probably flush out a couple of other big oil majors into moving into Kurdistan . The announcement last week to pass the Oil Law (the same one that has been about to be passed for the last 5 years) without Allawi’s party being involved just shows how the politics has shifted from a Shiite / Sunni issue to a Sadrists plus one of the others issue; that is a development worth watching. But all this has not stopped the investment in Iraq. In 2010 Iraq attracted almost $43 billion in foreign investments – the real surprise is not the magnitude or the destination but the nature of the investments made. The top sector is not Oil & Gas, whatever you are led to believe from the press; the top destinations are residential property (33%), transport (16%), electricity (14%), industry – mainly cement and steel (14%) and then – in 5th place – oil and gas with 13%. Turkey dominates the investments with just over 33%, followed by Italy (12%), France (10%) then South Korea and the USA with the United Kingdom at 9th place with just under 3%. What Iraq really needs is a truly integrated Government focused on Iraqi interests: and this needs Maliki to dump a few of the overtly pro-Iranian figures from his coalition. Allawi needs to abandon the idea of a strategic policy council (this was dumped in late 2010 in all but Allawi’s mind) and the Sadrists need to be properly integrated into the Government in some way (if the Mahdi army is reformed it will not be good) and lastly some sort of long-term military deal with the United States needs to be sorted out. But then …… which country does have a Government that puts national interest ahead of political survival. For investors in Iraq there are going to be periods of investment and periods when you need to keep your head down. Iraq is a different market from most others in that investors will need to understand the political dynamics more fully than the other markets – the costs of making a mistake are too high. Aberdeen energy businesses looking to develop business opportunities in Iraq are able to access free advice through a series of seminars run by Upper Quartile on behalf of Aberdeen City Council. The next seminar in the series will take place at Marischal College on Friday 27th January. For information contact Siobhan Young at siobhan@upperquartile.co.uk. = 29-01-12 From stranglehold to stampede? GKP.L 157 Nearly 3 months ago, I posted details of all the companies that had TSCs in Southern Iraq, and the stringent terms under which they were operating. http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AGKP.L&display=discussion&threshold=0&action=detail&id=8915923 Here’s an extract from that post: Anyway, BBBS, from the details above I have concluded that there are 15 large oil companies operating in Southern Iraq: • BP of the UK • SHELL of the UK/Netherlands • Exxon Mobil and Occidental of the USA • PETRONAS of Malaysia • CNPC of China • LUKOIL and GAZPROM NEFT of Russia • TOTAL of France • ENI of Italy • STATOIL of Norway • TPAO of Turkey • SONANGOL of Angola • JAPEX of Japan • KOGAS of South Korea Those in the top half of the list are perhaps the most likely contenders to move into Kurdistan, and could be the reason that Shamaran declares “Additional Industry Interest Imminent”... perhaps also signalling the end to the ICG imposed ‘blacklist’!” >> Well, we already know the impact that EXXON taking up 6 exploration licences in Kurdistan (announced by the KRG in early November 2011) has had, plus the inference that GKP’s SHAIKAN oil field is very firmly on their watchlist. And now it seems that we have confirmation too that TOTAL have joined them there. Who can blame them? TOTAL have an 18.75% share in the Halfaya licence, which offers a paltry $1.40 per barrel for production, even less than the $1.90 per barrel that Exxon was getting at West Qurna-1! And what has always struck me as odd about those TSCs is that the payment was fixed throughout the life-time of the contract, even if oil goes to $200 per barrel - a seemingly miniscule return for the extreme risk of operating in Southern Iraq where ethnic tensions are high the Maliki regime has been becoming ever more authoritarian. Shahristani might be a very tough negotiator but there had to be some incentive to foreign oil companies, which the Maliki government's failure to agree a unified Oil and Gas Law more than a year after taking office has clearly negated. Assuming that Total’s entry into Kurdistan is soon confirmed, it seems obvious that what was just a single super-major choosing to break the stranglehold previously applied by Baghdad will soon become something of a stampede. It is interesting too that Ashti Hawrami (Kurdistan’s Natural Resources Minister) made these comments to the FT in an interview published on the KRG website on 22 November 2011 only 2 weeks after the Exxon news broke http://web.krg.org/articles/detail.asp?lngnr=12&smap=02010200&rnr=73&anr=42363 Extract: FT: Do you expect other super majors to follow EXXON into Kurdistan? Dr Hawrami: Yes. I think the region is becoming very dynamic, in fact, it has been dynamic over the last 12 months. There is a lot of activities going on, and you are aware of the acquisition of Genel Energy by Vallares. That’s just an example; I think there will be others to follow.>> Hmmm.... Does ENI-one really think that the release of the news at this time (with the OGL continually having obstacles put in its path) is purely OCCIDENTAL? Or can we expect to see several more super-majors breaking rank in Southern Iraq and SHELL-ing out huge sums for prospects in the much more business-friendly environment of Kurdistan, I wonder? There is little doubt that confidence is building. And in the next few weeks, it looks very likely that long-term holders will be well rewarded, and their resolve to stick it out throughout the very testing Iraqi political impasse.... TOTAL-ly EXXON-erated! Yes, CJ, the 'landscape' is definitely changing! AIMHO and please DYOR GLA, scaramouche ============ Reko Diq damages claim ‘exaggerated’ By Shahbaz RanaPublished: May 14, 2018 0 SHARES SHARE TWEET EMAIL STOCK IMAGE STOCK IMAGE ISLAMABAD: There are glaring flaws in the Tethyan Copper Company’s (TCC) damages claim of $11.43 billion in the Reko Diq mining case that may reduce it by as much as 61 per cent, officials maintained. The company, they said, exaggerated its future profits by underrating tax and royalty obligations by as much as 61 per cent. The damages claim was filed in the International Court for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) of the World Bank. The hearing for quantifying damages will start on Monday (today) in London, lasting till May 24. Reko Diq is part of the Tethyan Magmatic Arc, a mineralised belt that originates in Eastern Europe and runs through Iran and Pakistan before ending in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s legal and tax experts have submitted another report in the court, hoping that it will have ‘substantial impact’ on the damages claims, sources told The Express Tribune. Pakistani authorities did not quantify the impact in dollar terms, but their internal correspondence suggested that the TCC had understated its royalty and tax obligations towards the state of Pakistan up to 61 per cent. In 2012, the TCC filed claims in the ICSID after the Balochistan government turned down the company’s lease request. Sources said that the TCC had built its case around damages on its investment in Pakistan and future profits from mineral extraction over a period of 56 years. They said that the claims were based on wrong application of tax provisions by TCC in addition to understating royalty. The royalty had to be paid at the time of materialization of five per cent on gross receipt basis but TCC calculated it on the basis of two per cent net, they said. According to Rule 102(4) of Balochistan Mineral Rules of 2002: “The fair market value, in respect of any mineral or group of minerals which has been disposed of, shall be determined by reference to the first point at which it was disposed of, without allowing for any deductions from the gross amount so determined.” But the TCC worked out the figure on the basis of net smelting. Balochistan government had increased royalty rates from two per cent to five per cent in 2009, sources said. The Chinese firm, operating the Saindek gold-copper project in Balochistan, has been paying royalties at the enhanced rate of five per cent, sources said. Over a 56-year lease period, the difference in payment of royalty alone would have been in billions of dollars. This single point could again lower the TCC’s claim by at least 40 per cent, sources said. The TCC has also not included the impact of indirect taxes, including the federal excise duty, in its deductions, the sources said. Pakistan government had not given any exemptions on federal excise duty and other taxes, sources asserted. This would cause a dent in TCC’s claim, reducing it by another 21 per cent, sources claimed. Pakistan has hired a legal firm GST, out of Washington DC, that advised the federal government to take a tax expert on board. The authorities engaged Dr Ikramul Haq as tax expert, a Supreme Court lawyer and an expert in international tax laws. The Office of the Attorney-General is vigorously defending TCC’s ‘outlandish claim’ through its International Arbitration Unit, according to a briefing to a parliamentary body. Pakistani authorities expressed the hope that arguments about tax and royalty payments would be crucial for minimizing TCC’s damages claim. Although at this stage Pakistan believes that the damages claim was unjustified. The Supreme Court and the federal and provincial authorities mishandled the TCC case, according to the proceedings of the Public Accounts Committee. During the ICSID proceedings, the jurisdiction and liability were decided against Pakistan: The tribunal found that the country had breached the Bilateral Investment Treaty of 1998 between Pakistan and Australia. The PAC also questioned the manner in which successive provincial governments allowed changes in ownership, delegating it from one Australian company to two others between 1998 and 2006 despite the fact that there was no such clause in the original Chagai Hills Joint Venture Exploration Agreement. In 2013, the SC declared that the agreement and all its successor agreements were void ab initio and that the TCC had no legal rights to explore and mine in Reko Diq.