Ten ways the Ukraine crisis may change the world

Mon, Mar 31 05:17 AM EDT By Paul Taylor BRUSSELS (Reuters) - As Moscow and the West dig in for a prolonged stand-off over Russia's annexation of Crimea, risking spillover to other former Soviet republics and beyond, here are 10 ways in which the Ukraine crisis could change attitudes and policy around the world. 1) Russia diminished: Russia's role in international affairs is diminished, at least temporarily. Moscow has been de facto excluded from the Group of Eight industrialized powers. Its bids to join the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development and the International Energy Agency are frozen. Western summits with Moscow are canceled until further notice. President Vladimir Putin's attempt to use the BRICS group of emerging powers to mitigate isolation by the West faltered over Chinese and Indian unease at the Crimean precedent for disputes about Tibet and Kashmir. A joint BRICS statement condemned sanctions but made no mention of Crimea or Ukraine. 2) NATO revived: Just when it looked to be losing relevance as its mission in Afghanistan limps to a close, the U.S.-led military alliance is back in business. An increase in allied air patrols and war games showing the flag in Poland and the Baltic states is on the agenda, and Warsaw wants faster deployment of U.S. missile defense systems in central Europe. Under U.S. pressure, some European countries may rethink cuts in defense spending. Neutral Sweden and Finland, perceiving Russia anew as a potential threat, may increase security efforts and cooperate more closely with NATO. 3) Energy diversification: The energy map of Europe is being redrawn with accelerated action to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas. EU states are set to build more liquefied natural gas terminals, upgrade pipeline networks and grids and expand a southern gas supplies through Georgia and Turkey to southern and central Europe. The EU gets a third of its oil and gas from Russia, and 40 percent of that gas is pumped across Ukraine. Europe may now look to tap its own shale gas reserves and expand nuclear power, despite environmental concerns. "I see the danger of more nuclear - which is C02-free, which is also part of the discussion, but it is the wrong path," said Gerhard Roiss, chief executive of Austria's OMV, a big importer of Russian gas into central Europe. 4) China factor: The diplomatic alliance between Russia and China, which often vote together in the U.N. Security Council, could change in one of two directions - either rapprochement through a stronger energy partnership, with new pipelines being built to pump Russian oil and gas spurned by Europe to Beijing; or a cooling if China distances itself more from Putin's behavior and sees less benefit in closer ties with an economically weakened and relatively isolated Moscow. For now, President Xi Jinping is refusing to take sides in public. 5) U.S. leadership: Washington's global leadership role, weakened by the rise of emerging powers and by retrenchment under President Barack Obama, has been partially restored. Despite his disengagement from wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and strategic "pivot" towards Asia, events have pushed Obama back into the old-fashioned role of "Leader of the Free World" in an East-West crisis in Europe. The crisis has swept aside European anger over U.S. spying on global communications and put a new premium on cooperation. In Brussels last week Europeans appealed to Obama to sell them shale gas, and both sides agreed to speed talks on a transatlantic free trade and investment pact. Yet U.S. strategists say American economic interests and the security challenges of managing a rising China mean Asia will remain the priority and Europe will have to do more for itself. 6) German leadership: The Ukraine affair has cemented Berlin's leadership role in Europe. Germany is already the dominant economic power, calling the shots in the euro zone crisis, and Chancellor Angela Merkel has become Europe's main interlocutor with Putin. Her disenchantment with him has shaped an increasingly firm crisis response after initial hesitancy. German willingness to reduce energy dependency on Russia will be the yardstick of how far the rest of the EU goes. Merkel is also the relationship manager with the volatile Yulia Tymoshenko, whose presidential bid may heighten tension in Ukraine. 7) EU united: The European Union has been reunited, at least for now, by the return of a common external threat. This may have helped EU leaders overcome some long-running disputes. Greens European Parliament member Rebecca Harms joked that it was too early to nominate Putin for the annual Charlemagne prize for services to European unity, "but in the face of a new threat of war in Europe, EU states have indeed agreed on a joint strategy towards Russia." Some EU diplomats say Poland may speed up slow-motion moves to join the euro, seeking sanctuary in Europe's inner core as the Baltic states have done. Polish entry would hasten the spread of the single currency to almost all EU countries, including Denmark, though probably not Sweden or Britain. 8) Contest for Central Asia: both Putin and the West are wooing central Asian autocrats in energy-rich Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, drawing a discreet veil over their human rights records. If Russia weakens economically, they will want at least a foot in the Western camp. 9) U.S.-Russian cooperation: some cooperation on global security issues will continue because Moscow has an interest in keeping it on track to avoid greater isolation. But tensions are possible over Syria, Iran, Afghanistan or North Korea, and Moscow has levers it could activate such as contracts to supply S300 air defense missiles to Damascus or Tehran. 10) Putin's future: Russia's leader is near the peak of his popularity, riding a wave of nationalist pride over Crimea. However, instability may grow if he comes under pressure from magnates angry at losing value on their businesses, forfeiting foreign investment in Russia and facing travel restrictions and asset freezes in the West. Most are 150 percent loyal for now, but things may look different in six months' time. (Editing by Mark Heinrich) ================================ West stumbles as autocratic force trumps economics Tue, Apr 01 07:51 AM EDT By David Rohde (Reuters) - A quarter-century after the fall of the Soviet Union, authoritarian rulers such as Vladimir Putin and Bashar al-Assad are showing they can and will defy international norms, suppress dissent and use military force. American policymakers are struggling with how to respond. "It's a big philosophical question about how to deal with a strong state with anti-Western and autocratic proclivities (A natural propensity or inclination; predisposition.)," said Michael McFaul, the most recent American ambassador to Moscow. "I would say on that score we are kind of confused as a country." Citing the sweeping unpopularity of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, American officials have embraced economic sanctions as their primary means of pressuring foreign governments. In an interconnected, 21st-century global economy, President Barack Obama argues, economic sanctions are more powerful than ever.

If Russia continues on its current course, Obama warned last week, "the isolation will deepen, sanctions will increase and there will be more consequences for the Russian economy."

He may be proven right. Over the course of 2014, the threat of economic sanctions may result in Putin backing down in Crimea and Ukraine. And historic sanctions against Iran -which slashed oil sales and cut the country off from the world banking system - could produce an accord that halts Iran's nuclear program. If not, a 16th-century Machiavellian truism ((Suggestive of or characterized by expediency, deceit, and cunning.)) will re-assert its dominance: The party most willing to decisively use force will prevail over a noncommittal opponent. "What we've seen with Assad and Putin is a willingness to smile at international norms and pursue power politics regardless of the cost," said Andrew Weiss, a Russia expert at the Carnegie Endowment and former official in the George H.W. Bush and Clinton administrations. "And if the West is not united and America's interests are not immediately threatened, the response immediately becomes attenuated." How to respond has already become an issue in the 2016 presidential race. In the weeks since Putin sent Russian troops into Crimea, Republican senators Rand Paul, Ted Cruz and Paul Ryan all criticized Obama's response. But none of them called for an American intervention in Ukraine. ECONOMIC CONNECTIONS Fiona Hill, a Russia expert at the Brookings Institution and a former National Intelligence Council official, said those who believed the collapse of the Soviet Union signified the triumph of Western democratic capitalism were deluding themselves. A large number of Russians remained deeply skeptical of Western norms. "It was only a very small elite around Yeltsin who were buying this," she said. "Too many people (Westerners) saw what they wanted to see, rather than what was happening." Then the global financial crisis strengthened a perception in parts of the world that Western democracy was failing - both politically and economically, Hill added. Shadi Hamid, a Middle East expert at the Brookings Institution's Saban Center, said Obama's decision to not intervene in Syria after last September's chemical weapons attack created a perception of American weakness. Strongmen, such as Egypt's military ruler, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, had been emboldened. "They think they can get away with more than ever," Hamid said. "And this is tied to a growing sense of weakness under the Obama administration, whether it's fair or unfair." Obama administration officials deny that. They argue that another costly intervention in the Middle East would further weaken the American economy. And they contend that economic and technological strength - not brute force alone - will be the dominant source of power for decades to come. Steven Pifer, a former American ambassador to Ukraine and now a fellow at the Brookings Institution, argued that economic inter-connectedness will have an impact on Putin. Pifer said the Russian leader knows he needs trade with the outside world. "While the West may rule out the military option," Pifer wrote in an email, "it has other tools, including political isolation and financial sanctions that could inflict serious pain on the Russian economy." Weiss, the Carnegie expert, argued that Russia and Syria represent vastly different situations. Russia is far more economically connected to the world than Syria, he said. And Putin is not accused of killing thousands of his people and displacing millions in a bid to hold onto power, like Assad. But Weiss said he was unsure that economic sanctions alone would stop the Russian leader. "He's thinking about things in a very shrewd, pure-power way. "What leverage do we have against Putin?" he asked. "That's why people are somewhat stumped about what to do." In the case of Iran, years of false claims from officials regarding its nuclear program finally prompted Europe to agree sweeping economic sanctions that rebounded on Europe more than on the United States. Barring a Russian military incursion deeper into Ukraine, "the Europeans are not willing to go farther," he said. "They're happy to compartmentalize and go back to business as usual." "THEY WANT IT MORE" Hill compared the current world today with the 19th century, when trade was vast but nations still clashed. "The world was incredibly connected," she said. "And it didn't produce any greater political outcomes. You remember a lot of gunboat diplomacy." She said that economic interdependence flows both ways. "There is mutual dependency here," she added. "There is mutual leverage. We can use it and they can use it." Experts said that for Putin, Crimea's port at Sevastopol was vital. In Egypt, Sisi believes he is fighting an existential threat with the Muslim Brotherhood. In Washington, American officials disagree over whether core American interests are at stake, and the autocrats know it. "There is a calculation there," Hamid said. "They know that they want it more than we do." (Edited by Sara Ledwith) =================================

US, Europe sanctions target Putin's inner circle, EU soul-searching over Russian gas vulnerability

Barack Obama President Barack Obama makes a statement on Ukraine, Thursday, March 20, 2014, on the South Lawn at the White House in Washington before departing for Florida. President Barack Obama said the US is levying a new round of economic sanctions on individuals in Russia, both inside and outside the government, in retaliation for the Kremlin's actions in Ukraine. He also said he has also signed a new executive order that would allow the U.S. to sanction key sectors of the Russian economy.. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak) Print The Associated Press By The Associated Press The Associated Press on March 20, 2014 at 11:27 PM, updated March 21, 2014 at 12:05 AM View/Post Comments WASHINGTON -- Raising the stakes in an East-West showdown over Ukraine, President Barack Obama on Thursday ordered economic sanctions against nearly two dozen members of Vladimir Putin's inner circle and a major Russian bank that provides them support. He warned that more sweeping penalties against Russia's robust energy sector could follow. Russia retaliated swiftly, imposing entry bans on American lawmakers and senior White House officials, among them Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, Obama senior adviser Dan Pfeiffer and the president's deputy national security adviser, Ben Rhodes. It's far more than just a U.S.-Russia dispute. European Union leaders said they, too, were ready to close in on Putin's associates, announcing sanctions on 12 more people linked to Russia's annexation of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine. That brought the number of people facing EU sanctions to 33. The Western aim is twofold: to ratchet up the costs for Putin's annexation of Crimea and to head off any further Russian military inroads into Ukraine.

"The world is watching with grave concern as Russia has positioned its military in a way that could lead to further incursions into southern and eastern Ukraine," Obama said, speaking from the South Lawn of the White House.

Thursday's volleys deepened the confrontation over Ukraine, a standoff that has become one of the biggest political crises in Europe since the Cold War. Putin, rather than backing off as the West warns of costs, has defiantly moved military forces into Crimea, backed a referendum in which the Crimean people overwhelming voted to join Russia and then signed a treaty formally absorbing the strategically important peninsula into Russia. In Ukraine, pro-Russian forces seized three Ukrainian warships Thursday, and U.S. officials acknowledge privately that there is little chance of Russia giving up Crimea now. The more pressing concern is stopping Putin from pushing into other Ukrainian areas with large ethnic Russian populations. Thousands of Russian troops are currently positioned along Ukraine's eastern border. The Pentagon said Russia's defense minister assured Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel that those forces have no intention of crossing into Ukrainian territory and are only in the region to conduct military exercises. The two men spoke by phone for an hour. The U.S. had received similar assurances from top Kremlin officials, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, before Russian troops moved into Crimea. The penalties announced Thursday by the U.S. and Europe build on an initial round of narrower sanctions levied earlier this week. While European officials did not immediately release names, the U.S. listed some of Putin's closest associates. Among the 20 individuals sanctioned were Sergei Ivanov, the Russian president's chief of staff, as well as Arkady Rotenberg and Gennady Timchenko, both lifelong Putin friends whose companies have amassed billions of dollars in government contracts. Also sanctioned: Bank Rossiya, a private bank that is owned by Yuri Kovalchuk, who is considered to be Putin's banker. Putin has not been personally targeted by the first two rounds of U.S. sanctions. In fact, American sanctions on heads of state are rare, largely reserved for instances where the U.S. is seeking a change in government leadership. Russians have made light of previous U.S. sanctions on individuals, and targeted American lawmakers reacted In like manner on Thursday. Said Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.: "I guess this means my spring break in Siberia is off." Obama also signed a new executive order that would allow him to sanction key Russian industries, actions that could have a harsher impact on that country's economy. Senior administration officials said Russia's energy, financial services and metals and mining sectors are among the industries that could be targeted. "Russia must know that further escalation will only isolate it further from the international community," Obama said. The U.S. has so far acted in conjunction with the European Union, Russia's largest trading partner. The EU's close economic ties with Russia gives its penalties more bite, but also leave the alliance more vulnerable if the Kremlin retaliates. The EU did not immediately release the names of those it had targeted Thursday with travel bans and asset freezes. European leaders, meeting in Brussels, also announced plans to scrap an EU-Russia summit scheduled for June. And like Obama, they warned that further provocations by Russia would result in deeper punishments. "We need to prepare to take further steps and we need to do it together," said Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt. "A strong Europe is the last thing that Putin wants. He wants to split us up." German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that beyond increasing the number of people affected by asset freezes and travel bans -- initially 21 politicians and military commanders -- the leaders would prepare for possible measures at a higher level, which would include economic sanctions and an arms embargo. Russia's economy has already taken a hit during the Crimea crisis. The country's stock market fell 10 percent this month, potentially wiping out billions. Economists have slashed growth forecasts to zero this year, and foreign investors have been pulling money out of Russian banks. The West's dispute with Russia is expected to dominate Obama's trip to Europe next week. He'll chair a hastily arranged meeting of the Group of Seven, pointedly leaving out Russia, which often joins the U.S., Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan to comprise the Group of Eight. Officials said the G-7 leaders will discuss what kind of financial assistance they can provide to the fledgling Ukrainian government. The G-7 nations have also suspended preparations for a G-8 summit that Russia is scheduled to host this summer in Sochi, site of the recently completed Winter Olympics. ================= AFP EU soul-searching over Russian gas vulnerability Brussels (AFP) - Europe's dependency on Russian gas will be at the heart of summit talks starting Thursday as EU leaders weigh up action to match their outrage over Moscow's annexation of Crimea. Over a quarter of the gas used by the European Union comes from Russia and nearly a third of that is piped through Ukraine, making households and industry dependant on Russian goodwill and Ukrainian infrastructure. For a handful of EU countries -- Finland, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria and the Baltic states -- Russia's state-controlled gas colossus Gazprom is virtually the sole provider. If the EU and Russia were to escalate tit-for-tat sanctions leading all the way to gas supply disruptions, the EU would have a lot to lose -- a point not lost on many European leaders. Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico for instance warned as he headed to the summit that any energy-related embargo "would be lethal to the Slovak economy." However, an escalation of sanctions could hurt the Russians more than the EU. A paper released recently by the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), a Brussels think tank, claimed Moscow was "more dependent on export revenues from its gas than the EU is on gas imports from Russia." The EU takes 53 percent of Russia's annual gas exports, sliding an estimated $24 billion (17 billion euros) into state coffers. According to the Bruegel think tank, any disruption to that cash flow as a result of sanctions from either side could be crippling for both Russia's national budget and Gazprom's bottom-line. - Gas dependency grows - Yet even the threat of a disrupted gas supply could have significant long-term implications for Gazprom if the EU is spooked into finding ways to further reduce its dependance on Russia. That is exactly what happened after the 2009 gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine that resulted in gas shortages across Europe prompted the EU to change policies to diversify its sources of natural gas and better manage its supplies. According to Eurostat, the EU?s bureau of statistics, in 2003 Russian gas accounted for 45 percent of the bloc?s gas imports, but by 2012 that had been cut to 31.9 percent. However the EU will face difficulty reducing it further as domestic supplies from the North Sea begin to decline, North African supplies have been disrupted and Middle East suppliers of liquefied natural gas have turned to more lucrative Asian markets. In fact, according calculations made by AFP based on data from Eurogas, an association of European gas companies, Russia's share in EU gas imports jumped to around 40 percent last year. That reality may firm up the resolve of EU leaders to find alternatives to Russian gas and explain why energy issues are likely to dominate the agenda of this week's Council meeting. A senior diplomatic source at the European Council confirmed that having "greater control" of energy supplies is the leaders' top priority, arguing that "if we don't take action, our dependancy (on Russian gas) will increase up to 80 percent by 2035." - Baltic vulnerability - While many of the EU?s eastern members are susceptible to Russia?s whims in cutting gas supplies, none are more vulnerable than the three Baltic states: Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. While all three have been EU members since 2004, the natural gas infrastructure in place is a legacy of the Soviet era in which the region was supplied entirely by the state gas monopoly. There are no gas pipelines connecting the Baltic states with the rest of the EU, and in the past Gazprom has used its role as monopoly supplier to throw its weight around. In 2012, the company imposed a dramatic gas price hike on Lithuania, on the grounds that its implementation of EU-mandated reforms of the energy sector could harm Gazprom's interests. Those high energy prices remain in place today, with Lithuania paying between 30 and 40 percent more for Russian natural gas than the EU average, with Estonia and Latvia not far behind. "The EU is taking our concerns seriously, but it is up to us, to our actions, to address this -- we need to find a solution" a senior Baltic diplomat said ahead of the leaders' meeting in Brussels. The problem for the Baltic countries is that to build the required infrastructure takes time, and there are a number of projects slated for EU support which are not yet off the drawing board. But Lithuania in particular is hoping that a floating LNG terminal which will be ready soon will allow it to import natural gas from other sources, meaning it could be resupplied by sea if the Russians were to halt deliveries. Diplomatic sources said Baltic countries are now hoping that the United States will make its increased production of shale gas available to EU markets "as a matter of urgency", while also calling for a faster implementation of EU gas projects ===========================

Resolution 1541, Decolonization, Self-Determination (If Kosovo can, so can Crimea)

Alan Fairhurst The right of nations to self-determination (from German: Selbstbestimmungsrecht der Völker), or in short form, the right to self-determination is the cardinal principle in modern international law (jus cogens), binding, as such, on the United Nations as authoritative interpretation of the Charter’s norms. It states that nations based on respect for the principle of equal rights and fair equality of opportunity have the right to freely choose their sovereignty and international political status with no external compulsion or interference which can be traced back to the Atlantic Charter, signed on 14 August 1941, by Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the United States of America, and Winston Churchill, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom who pledged The Eight Principal points of the Charter. The principle does not state how the decision is to be made, or what the outcome should be, whether it be independence, federation, protection, some form of autonomy or even full assimilation. Neither does it state what the delimitation between nations should be — or even what constitutes a nation. In fact, there are conflicting definitions and legal criteria for determining which groups may legitimately claim the right to self-determination. On 14 December 1960, the United Nations General Assembly adopted United Nations General Assembly Resolution 1514 under titled Declaration on the Granting of Independence to Colonial Countries and Peoples provided for the granting of independence to colonial countries and peoples in providing an inevitable legal linkage between self-determination and its goal of decolonisation, and a postulated new international law-based right of freedom also in economic self-determination. In Article 5 states: Immediate steps shall be taken in Trust and Non-Self-Governing Territories, or all other territories which have not yet attained independence, to transfer all powers to the peoples of those territories, without any conditions or reservations, in accordance with their freely expressed will and desire, without any distinction as to race, creed or colour, in order to enable them to enjoy complete independence and freedom, moreover on 15 December 1960 the United Nations General Assembly adopted United Nations General Assembly Resolution 1541 under titled Principles which should guide members in determining whether or nor an obligation exists to transmit the information called for under Article 73e of the United Nations Charter in Article 3 provided that [i]nadequacy of political, economic, social or educational preparedness should never serve as a pretext for delaying independence. To monitor the implementation of Resolution 1514 in 1961 the General Assembly created the Special Committee referred to popularly as the Special Committee on Decolonization to ensure decolonization complete compliance with the principle of self-determination in General Assembly Resolution 1541, 12 Principle of the Annex defining free association with an independent State, integration into an independent State, or independence as the three legitimate options of full self-government compliance with the principle of self-determination. "National aspirations must be respected; people may now be dominated and governed only by their own consent. Self determination is not a mere phrase; it is an imperative principle of action. . . . " —Woodrow Wilson with his famous self-determination speech on 11 February 1918 after he announced his Fourteen Points on 8 January 1918. Crimea referendum opponents manipulate detached norms of intl law – Churkin Published time: March 13, 2014 22:58 Edited time: March 14, 2014 03:16 Get short URL Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vitaly Churkin addresses the United Nations Security Council during a meeting of the Council on the crisis in Ukraine, at U.N. Headquarters in New York, March 13, 2014. (Reuters/Mike Segar) Download video (54.97 MB) Share on tumblrTrends Ukraine turmoil Tags Human rights, Meeting, Opposition, Politics, Security, UN, Ukraine Addressing the chorus of criticism at the UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine, Moscow’s ambassador has reconfirmed that Russia does not want any escalation of the Ukraine crisis and is not interfering with the upcoming referendum in Crimea. “Russia does not want war and neither do the Russians, and I'm convinced the Ukrainians don't want that either,” ambassador Vitaly Churkin told an emergency meeting of the Security Council on Thursday. “We don’t see any basis to consider the issue in such terms.” It is unacceptable to reject Crimea’s right for self-determination using a smokescreen of protecting Ukraine’s territorial integrity, without even trying to balance these two principles, Churkin told the council. “Some dispute the legality of such a referendum, but it is unacceptable to manipulate individual principles and norms of international law, randomly pulling them out of context not only of the international law, but the specific political circumstances and historical aspects,” Churkin said. In each case, the envoy believes, one should “balance between the principles of territorial integrity and the right for self-determination.” “It is clear that the implementation of the right of self-determination in the form of separation from the existing state is an extraordinary measure. In Crimea such a case apparently arose as a result of a legal vacuum, which emerged as a result of unconstitutional, violent coup d'état carried out in Kiev by radical nationalists, as well as direct threats by the latter to impose their order on the whole territory of Ukraine.” Video: /files/news/23/91/e0/00/churkin-full-unsc-web_1416352.mp4 Churkin assured the international community that the Black Sea Fleet – the only Russian military force stationed in Crimea according to existing international agreements – does not and will not interfere with Sunday’s referendum on Crimean succession. “In the conduct of the referendum, organized by the Crimeans, the Russian Black Sea Fleet does not interfere,” he said. At the same time Churkin reminded about the urgent need to investigate the killings of protesters and security forces at Maidan square that brought new people to power in Kiev. Moscow keeps insisting on setting up a probe into these crimes, Churkin said. “Acts of violence perpetrated in Kiev need a careful international investigation,” he said, warning that the “image presented by Kiev and western propaganda is completely reversed by the information the same provocateurs were firing at both the representatives of the security forces and protesters.” “And, according to the latest published information, shooting came from the headquarters of the so-called ‘Maidan Commandant’, who now heads by the Security Council of Ukraine,” Russia's envoy said. In general, the UN Security Council members all sides called to abstain from taking positions that could deteriorate the Ukraine crisis. Several member states including the US, Britain and France were critical of Russia’s “actions in Crimea,” while the US ambassador Samantha Power even called for a suspension of the “illegitimate referendum” due to “the background of foreign military intervention.” Ukraine's coup-appointed prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk was also given the floor at the council meeting and used that chance to once again accuse Russia of “military aggression” in Crimea.

“This aggression has no reasons and no grounds,” Yatsenyuk said. “This is absolutely and entirely unacceptable in the 21st century, to resolve any kind of conflict with tanks, artillery and boots on the ground.”

With Western media and the self-proclaimed government in Kiev ranting about the Russian invasion in Crimea, international journalists on the scene are struggling to find any evidence of these claims. The United States in the meantime has ratcheted up its rhetoric with threats of sanctions against Russia if a referendum in Crimea goes ahead on Sunday. US Secretary of State John Kerry told a congressional hearing on Thursday that he hoped to avoid such steps, which include sanctions, through discussions with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, in London on Friday. "If there is no sign of any capacity to be able to move forward and resolve this issue there will be a very serious series of steps in Europe and here with respect to the options that are available to us," Kerry said. ==================== West prepares sanctions as Russia presses on with Crimea takeover Fri, Mar 14 19:20 PM EDT 1 of 22 By Andrew Osborn and Lina Kushch SEVASTOPOL/DONETSK, Ukraine (Reuters) - Dozens of Russians linked to Russia's gradual takeover of Crimea could face U.S. and EU travel bans and asset freezes on Monday, after six hours of crisis talks between Washington and Moscow ended with both sides still far apart. Moscow shipped more troops and armor into Crimea on Friday and repeated its threat to invade other parts of Ukraine in response to violence in Donetsk on Thursday night despite Western demands to pull back. EU diplomats will choose from a long list of 120-130 possible Russian targets for sanctions on Sunday, as pro-Moscow authorities who have taken power in Crimea hold a vote to join Russia in the worst East-West confrontation since the Cold War. Several diplomats dismissed a German newspaper report that said the list would include the heads of Russia's two biggest companies, energy giants Gazprom and Rosneft. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Russia would be guilty of a backdoor annexation of Crimea if its parliament ratified the Crimea referendum, which is taking place after an armed takeover of Crimea and gives voters no chance to say "no". He has warned Moscow that U.S. and EU sanctions could be imposed as soon as Monday, although U.S. officials said after Kerry's marathon meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in London on Friday the door was still open for more talks. Lavrov played down his own ministry's threats, saying Moscow had no plans to invade Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, where pro-Moscow groups have occupied some government buildings. But he said Russia would respect the referendum result. Preliminary partial results are expected late on Sunday, with final results on Tuesday. STOCK MARKET FALLS Russia's stock markets tumbled and the cost of insuring its debt soared on the last day of trading before the Crimea vote. Brent crude oil rose by more than $1 as traders worried the crisis was set to escalate. Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries have also plunged this week, leading some traders to speculate Russia has cut its dollar reserves to support the ruble and avoid any sanctions. An EU diplomat said he expected the final list of those who could be sanctioned on Monday to be between "tens and scores" of people from the list, which runs to five pages. Germany's Bild newspaper reported that Alexei Miller, boss of natural gas monopoly Gazprom, and Igor Sechin, head of Russia's biggest oil firm, Rosneft, would be among those targeted, along with senior ministers and Kremlin aides. Reuters was not immediately able to confirm the Bild report and European diplomats said the choice had not yet been made and was unlikely to include business leaders. "(Business interests) is not the target initially, the focus is on the political decision that has been taken to act in Crimea and destabilize Ukraine," said one diplomat involved in the negotiations. Rosneft spokesman Mikhail Leontyev said sanctions on his firm's boss would be "stupid, petty and obvious sabotage of themselves most of all. I think it will primarily affect Rosneft's business partners in the West in an extraordinary way." Gazprom and the Kremlin declined to comment. FELLOW CITIZENS A U.N. Security Council resolution drafted by the United States declaring that the referendum "can have no validity" will be put to a vote on Saturday. Russia is expected to veto it but Western diplomats hope China will isolate Moscow by abstaining. Kerry told Lavrov Russia should explain its intentions for the large number of Russian forces massing on the eastern border with Ukraine, where many ethnic Russians live, and in Crimea. The Russian Foreign Ministry, responding to the death of at least one protester in Ukraine's eastern city of Donetsk, repeated President Vladimir Putin's declaration of the right to invade to protect Russian citizens and "compatriots". "Russia is aware of its responsibility for the lives of compatriots and fellow citizens in Ukraine and reserves the right to take people under its protection," it said, alluding to what it says are threats from Ukraine's new pro-Western leaders. Ukrainian health authorities say one 22-year-old man was stabbed to death and at least 15 others were being treated in hospital after clashes in Donetsk, the mainly Russian-speaking home city of Ukraine's ousted President Viktor Yanukovich. Organizers of the anti-Moscow demonstration said the dead man was from their group and the new pro-Western governor of Donetsk said Russians were behind the clashes. Moscow denies that its forces are intervening in Crimea, an assertion Washington ridicules as "Putin's fiction". Journalists have seen Russian forces operating openly in their thousands over the past two weeks, driving in armored columns of vehicles with Russian license plates and identifying themselves to besieged Ukrainian troops as members of Russia's armed forces. A Reuters reporter watched a Russian warship unload trucks, troops and at least one armored personnel carrier at Kazachaya bay near Sevastopol on Friday morning. Trucks drove off a ramp from the Yamal 156, a large landing ship that can carry more than 300 troops and up to a dozen APCs. In nearby Simferopol, around 300 Tatars protested against the referendum. Tatars, a majority in Crimea until Soviet leader Josef Stalin deported them en masse for alleged collaboration with the Nazis in World War Two, are strongly anti-Russian. FACTS ON THE GROUND Russian troops seized the Black Sea peninsula two weeks ago as a pro-Moscow regional government took power there. The new regional authorities intend to secede from Ukraine and join Russia in a vote described in the West as illegal. Putin declared on March 1 that Russia had the right to invade its neighbor, a week after its ally Yanukovich fled the Ukrainian capital following three months of demonstrations that ended with about 100 people killed in the final days. The Defense Ministry said on Friday it would hold exercises with fighter jets and helicopters over the Mediterranean sea. On Thursday it announced artillery drills near Ukraine's border. U.S. and EU sanctions on Russian officials and other figures are now seen as inevitable. A formal EU decision to impose sanctions will be taken on Monday unless Moscow rapidly changes course. U.S. and European officials say the targets will not include Putin or Lavrov, and an east European diplomat said the EU might impose sanctions on one set of people on Monday, and add others on Wednesday and during an EU summit on Thursday and Friday. "It could start by sanctioning those directly involved with the situation in Crimea. Then if Russia doesn't respond, expand to include senior figures in the Russian Senate, and then ultimately expand to include very senior people," the diplomat said. Bild's list included Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, presidential administration chief Sergei Ivanov and the secretary of the National Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev. SHARES FALL, DEBT INSURANCE COSTS RISE Russia's MICEX stock index has lost more than 16 percent of its value in the two weeks since Putin declared his right to invade. The cost of insuring Russia's debt against default is now up by half since the crisis began. Although Russian public opinion, fed by overwhelmingly state-controlled media, is still solidly behind the plan to annex Crimea, Western countries believe sanctions could undermine support for Putin among the wealthy elite. Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin told Russian media that the threat of Western sanctions was already imposing higher borrowing costs on Russian businesses and that further sanctions would push capital flight to $50 billion a quarter. Renaissance Capital estimated capital outflow in the first quarter would exceed $55 billion, compared with $63 billion for the whole of 2013. The ruble has declined only slightly despite the fall in share prices, held aloft by a central bank that raised its lending rates on March 3 and has been spending reserves to keep the currency from falling. (Writing by Peter Graff and Philippa Fletcher; Editing by Will Waterman, Giles Elgood and Sonya Hepinstall) ========================== Recent history teaches us that whenever western leaders and their elite media cheerleaders talk of an international “crisis” and warn that “something must be done” the best way of avoiding a real crisis is to do absolutely nothing. Op-Edge by Neil Clark Crimea – another artificially created crisis Neil Clark is a journalist, writer and broadcaster. His award winning blog can be found at www.neilclark66.blogspot.com. Follow him on Twitter Get short URL Published time: March 14, 2014 14:38 Pro-Russian supporters attend a rally in Simferopol, March 9, 2014.(Reuters / Vasily Fedosenko) Share on tumblrTags Crisis, Iran, Libya, Politics, Russia, Syria, UK, Ukraine Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that the Ukraine/Crimea crisis has been “created artificially for purely geopolitical reasons." And he’s right. It's important to understand that this is not a “one-off” but only the latest in a long line of international “crises” either deliberately hyped up or artificially created by the western powers to further their geopolitical interests. British Foreign Secretary William Hague has said that Crimea is the “the biggest crisis in Europe in the 21st century.” But it‘s not the first time leading western politicians have talked in such alarmist terms in recent years. Exactly 15 years ago, in March 1999, we had the Kosovo “crisis” – with western leaders claiming that unless NATO took urgent military action thousands of Kosovan Albanians would be killed by Serb forces, who we were told were engaged in a brutal genocidal war. British Prime Minister Tony Blair told the House of Commons on March 23, 1999: “We must act to save thousands of innocent men, women and children from humanitarian catastrophe, from death, barbarism and ethnic cleansing from a brutal dictatorship.” But it was an artificially-created “crisis” as what was going on in Kosovo was a low-level conflict between Yugoslav forces and Kosovan Liberation Army fighters backed by the West. The KLA’s job was to carry out attacks on Yugoslav forces, provoke a violent response from Belgrade, which could then be used as a pretext for NATO intervention to destroy an independent, socialist country which had resisted globalization. A “crisis” had to be created in order to justify the NATO military action. Four years later, we had the Iraq WMD “crisis.” Something had to be done about Saddam's deadly weapons which threatened us all, western leaders told us. We couldn't wait for the team of UN weapons inspectors to finish their job.

“If we don't act now, then we will go back to what has happened before and then of course the whole thing begins again and he carries on developing these weapons and these are dangerous weapons, particularly if they fall into the hands of terrorists who we know want to use these weapons if they can get them,” Blair said.

Protestors block a street with burning tyres in Libya's second city of Benghazi on February 26, 2014 after the killings of two policemen.(AFP Photo / Abdullah Doma) On April 28, 2003, when Saddam’s WMD hadn’t shown up, Blair said: “Before people crow about the absence of Weapons of Mass Destruction, I suggest they wait a bit.” Eleven years on, and we’re still waiting. Throughout the last decade we've also had the Iranian nuclear “crisis.” We were told repeatedly by the West’s elite that the Islamic Republic was developing nuclear weapons which posed a clear threat not just to the Middle East region but to the whole world. Dealing with the Iranian nuclear “threat’ was deemed to be our most urgent priority. In January 2011, British Defense Secretary Liam Fox warned that Iran could have nuclear weapons by the end of 2012. But 2013 dawned and Iran still didn’t have any nukes. Then there was the “crisis” in Libya in 2011. We were told Colonel Gaddafi's forces were massacring innocent people and were about to launch a genocidal attack on the civilians in Benghazi. Again, we had to deal with this urgent “crisis.” “We simply cannot stand back and let a dictator whose people have rejected him, kill his people indiscriminately,” declared British Prime Minister David Cameron, doing his best Tony Blair impression. “Confronted by this brutal repression and a looming humanitarian crisis, I ordered warships into the Mediterranean. European allies declared their willingness to commit resources to stop the killing,” said President Barack Obama on March 28, 2011. As in the case of the “crisis” in Kosovo and the “crisis” with Iraqi WMDs, the western response to the “crisis” in Libya was a military attack. In August 2013, another “crisis” – with Western claims that the Syrian government had launched a deadly chemical weapons attack against its own people. Again, we were told we had to act quickly and firmly to deal with the “crisis”. It was only the diplomacy of Russia and public opinion in western countries that prevented a US-led military attack against Syria. Now, in March 2014, the new “crisis” is Putin's “invasion” of Ukraine and the threat Russia poses to independent, “democratic” Ukraine. This, don’t forget is “the biggest crisis in Europe in the 21st century.” In fact, none of the above were real crises – including Crimea. There was no genocide in Kosovo. Iraq had no WMDs. Iran had no nuclear weapons program: it was a “Manufactured Crisis”, to use the title of investigate journalist Gareth Porter’s new book. Gaddafi's forces weren't massacring civilians in Libya – nor had Gaddafi threatened a massacre of civilians in Benghazi. What Libyan forces were doing was what Yugoslav forces were doing in 1999: i.e. fighting a war against western-backed insurgents. In Syria, the evidence – as well as logic – suggests it was the rebels, and not the government which launched the chemical weapons attack at Ghouta – in order to get a full-scale military intervention from the western powers. And there is no Russian “invasion” of Ukraine. A Russian flag blows inside the entrance of Crimea's regional parliament building in Simferopol on March 13, 2014.(AFP Photo / Filippo Monteforte ) But – and here's the most important point – the western responses to these artificially created “crises” did lead to real crises. The “crisis” of Kosovo was dealt with by a brutal 78-day bombardment of Yugoslavia, which wrecked the country's infrastructure, and which left thousands killed or injured, with NATO’s use of depleted uranium leading to a spike in cancer rates. As for human rights, they’ve suffered too. “Nowhere [in Europe] is there such a level of fear for so many minorities that they will be harassed or attacked, simply for who they are,” said a report on Kosovo by Minority Rights Group International in 2006. The WMD “crisis” of Iraq led to an illegal invasion which Iraq has not yet recovered from, or is likely to recover from for a very long time – with up to 1m killed and a country plagued by violent sectarian conflict. Last year was Iraq’s deadliest since 2008, with over 7,000 people killed, In 2002/3 neocons couldn’t stop talking about the Iraq WMD ‘crisis’ and how urgent action was needed; now, when there is a real crisis in the country, they are silent. The Iranian nuclear “crisis” led to draconian sanctions being posed on the country – which has led to real hardship for the ordinary people of Iran – (as reported on RT) and higher oil prices for Europe too, just what we didn’t need at a time of major recession. Millions have suffered needlessly due to steps taken to deal with a “crisis” which never existed in the first place. The Libyan “crisis” of 2011 led to a brutal NATO assault on the country which led to thousands of deaths, and now Libya, like Iraq, is a wrecked country, again plagued with conflict. Again, those who couldn’t stop talking about the “humanitarian crisis” in Libya in 2011, are strangely silent these days. The Syrian chemical weapons attack “crisis” almost led to the outbreak of a major regional war, and possibly World War Three, but in their obsession with toppling the Baathist government, still the West and its regional allies supports the violent rebels thereby prolonging the misery of war for millions of Syrians. Now the serial “crisis” creators are at it again, this time trying to convince us that a referendum in Crimea and the possibility of the Crimea where almost 60 percent of the population are ethnic Russians returning to Russia is a major “crisis”. And once again the steps that they are proposing – sanctions on Russia – would lead to more of a crisis than the “crisis” itself: they would be disastrous for western economies, especially those in Europe. At the same time that we’re expected to lose sleep over artificially created crises like Crimea crisis which affect the lives of millions of ordinary people in the West and elsewhere are ignored by western elites. Global warming. The record numbers of young people without jobs. The ever-widening gap between rich and poor. The rapid fall in living standards of ordinary people in the west. These are crises which proper democratic governments would be dealing with. Instead the western elite prefer to invent new ones. Recent history teaches us that whenever western leaders and their elite media cheerleaders talk of an international “crisis” and warn that “something must be done” the best way of avoiding a real crisis is to do absolutely nothing. Let’s concentrate on tackling the real crises like environmental destruction, poverty, inequality and unemployment and not be fooled by the artificial “crises” that the western elites want us to focus on. The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT. ====================================

Ukraine mobilizes after Putin's 'declaration of war'

Mohammed Ibrahim Alwakeel > كربلاء ولايتي مات وقتل الالاف العراقيين دفاعا عن بيضه الاسلام في القرم في وقت لم يكونوا يعرفوا اين هي القرم؟؟ ولماذا يقاتلون ويقتلون من اجل القرم!!وفي وقت لم يكن هناك بلد اسمه "اوكرانيا" ولم يكن هناك بلد اسمه"العراق"بل كانت هناك روسيا القيصريه وتركيا العليه وبريطانيا العظمى وفرنسا الحره فمن نحن لنلعب مع الكبار سواء في زمن نيقولا الاول او في زمن فلاديمير بوتين!! سياسيا في العام 1854لم يكن هناك بلد اسمه العراق وكان البلد عباره عن ثلاثه ولايات البصره والموصل وبغداد وهي غير مرتبطه فيما بينها وانما مرتبطه ارتباطا مباشرا بالباب العالي في القسطنطينيه Sun, Mar 02 21:23 PM EST 1 of 13 By Natalia Zinets and Alissa de Carbonnel KIEV/BALACLAVA, Ukraine (Reuters) - Ukraine mobilized for war on Sunday and Washington threatened to isolate Russia economically after President Vladimir Putin declared he had the right to invade his neighbor in Moscow's biggest confrontation with the West since the Cold War.

"This is not a threat: this is actually the declaration of war to my country,"

Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk said in English. Yatsenuik heads a pro-Western government that took power in the former Soviet republic when its Moscow-backed president, Viktor Yanukovich, was ousted last week. Putin secured permission from his parliament on Saturday to use military force to protect Russian citizens in Ukraine and told U.S. President Barack Obama he had the right to defend Russian interests and nationals, spurning Western pleas not to intervene. Russian forces have already bloodlessly seized Crimea, an isolated Black Sea peninsula where Moscow has a naval base. On Sunday, they surrounded several small Ukrainian military outposts there and demanded the Ukrainian troops disarm. Some refused, leading to standoffs, although no shots were fired. As Western countries considered how to respond to the crisis, the United States said it was focused on economic, diplomatic and political measures, but made clear it was not seriously considering military action.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will visit Kiev on Tuesday to show "strong support for Ukrainian sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity, and the right of the Ukrainian people to determine their own future, without outside interference or provocation," the State Department said in a statement.

MORE DEMONSTRATIONS IN EASTERN UKRAINE With Russian forces in control of majority ethnic Russian Crimea, the focus is shifting to eastern swaths of Ukraine, where most ethnic Ukrainians speak Russian as a native language. Those areas saw more demonstrations on Sunday after violent protests on Saturday, and pro-Moscow activists hoisted flags for a second day at government buildings and called for Russia to defend them. Russia has staged war games with 150,000 troops along the land border, but they have so far not crossed. Kiev said Russia had sent hundreds of its citizens across the border to stage the protests. Ukraine's security council ordered the general staff to immediately put all armed forces on highest alert. But Kiev's small and under-equipped military is seen as no match for Russia's superpower might. The Defence Ministry was ordered to stage a call-up of reserves, meaning theoretically all men up to 40 in a country with universal male conscription, though Ukraine would struggle to find extra guns or uniforms for significant numbers of them. Kerry condemned Russia for what he called an "incredible act of aggression" and brandished the threat of economic sanctions. "You just don't, in the 21st century, behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on a completely trumped-up pretext," Kerry told the CBS program "Face the Nation". He said Moscow still had a "right set of choices" to defuse the crisis. Otherwise, G8 countries and other nations were prepared to "to go to the hilt to isolate Russia". "They are prepared to isolate Russia economically. The rouble is already going down. Russia has major economic challenges," he said. He mentioned visa bans, asset freezes and trade isolation as possible steps. Obama discussed the Ukraine crisis in calls with allies, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister David Cameron. Cameron said they agreed Russia would pay "significant costs" unless it changed course. Analysts said U.S. economic sanctions would likely have little impact on Russia unless they were paired with strong measures by major European nations, which have deeper trade ties with Moscow and are dependent on Russian gas. Ukraine's envoy to the United Nations said Kiev would ask for international military support if Russia expanded its military action in his country. At Kiev's Independence Square, where anti-Yanukovich protesters had camped out for months, thousands demonstrated against Russian military action. Speakers delivered rousing orations and placards read: "Putin, hands off Ukraine!" "If there is a need to protect the nation, we will go and defend the nation," said Oleh, an advertising executive cooking over an open fire at the square where he has been camped for three months. "If Putin wants to take Ukraine for himself, he will fail. We want to live freely and we will live freely." The new government announced it had fired the head of the navy and launched a treason case against him for surrendering Ukraine's naval headquarters to Russian forces in the Crimean port of Sevastopol, where Moscow has a major naval base. REACTION FROM THE WEST Obama spoke to Putin for 90 minutes by telephone on Saturday after the Russian leader declared he had the right to intervene and quickly secured unanimous approval from his parliament. The Kremlin said Putin told Obama that Russian speakers were under threat from Ukraine's new leaders, who took over after Yanukovich fled huge protests against his repression and rejection of a trade deal with the European Union. Putin reiterated that stance in a telephone call with Merkel on Sunday, the Kremlin said, adding he and Merkel agreed that Russia and Germany would continue consultations to seek the "normalization" of the situation. But in a sign of concern among Russian liberals, members of Putin's own human rights council urged him on Sunday not to invade Ukraine, saying threats faced by Russians there were not severe enough to justify sending in troops. Ukraine, which says it has no intention of threatening Russian speakers, has appealed for help to NATO, and directly to Britain and the United States, as co-signatories with Russia to a 1994 accord guaranteeing Ukraine's security. After an emergency meeting of NATO ambassadors in Brussels, the alliance called on Russia to bring its forces back to bases and refrain from interfering in Ukraine. Despite expressing "grave concern", NATO did not agree on any significant measures to apply pressure to Russia, with the West struggling to come up with a forthright response that does not risk pushing the region closer to military conflict.

"We urge both parties to immediately seek a peaceful solution through bilateral dialogue, with international facilitation ... and through the dispatch of international observers under the auspices of the United Nations Security Council or the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe," NATO said in a statement.

Washington on Saturday proposed sending monitors to Ukraine under the U.N. or OSCE flags. So far, the Western response has been largely symbolic. Obama and others suspended preparations for a G8 summit in Sochi, where Russia has just finished staging its $50 billion winter Olympic games. Some countries recalled ambassadors. Britain said its ministers would stay away from the Paralympics due next in Sochi. "Right now, I think we are focused on political, diplomatic and economic options," a senior U.S. official told reporters. "Frankly our goal is to uphold the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, not to have a military escalation," he added. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier urged world leaders on Sunday to work to calm the crisis and defended Russia's membership of the G8, saying it enabled the West to talk directly with Moscow. RUSSIANS IN CRIMEA Ukraine's military is ill-matched against its neighbor. Britain's International Institute of Strategic Studies estimates Kiev has fewer than 130,000 troops under arms, with planes barely ready to fly and few spare parts for a single submarine. Russia, by contrast, has spent billions under Putin to upgrade and modernize the capabilities of forces that were dilapidated after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Moscow's special units are now seen as equals of the best in the world. In Crimea, Ukraine's tiny contingent made no attempt to oppose the Russians, who bore no insignia on their uniforms but drove vehicles with Russian plates and seized government buildings, airports and other locations in the past three days. Kiev said its troops were encircled in at least three places. It pulled its coast guard vessels out of Crimean ports. Ukraine said its naval fleet's 10 ships were still in Sevastopol and remained loyal to Kiev. Scores of Russian troops with no insignia were camped outside a base of Ukrainian troops at Perevalnoye, on a road from Crimea's capital, Simferopol towards the coast. A representative of the base commander said troops on both sides had reached agreement so no blood would be shed. "We are ready to protect the grounds and our military equipment," Valery Boiko told Reuters television. "We hope for a compromise to be reached, a decision, and as the commander has said, there will be no war." Igor Mamchev, a Ukrainian navy colonel at another small base outside Simferopol, told Ukraine's Channel 5 TV that a truckload of Russian troops had arrived at his checkpoint and told his forces to lay down their arms. "I replied that, as I am a member of the armed forces of Ukraine, under orders of the Ukrainian navy, there could be no discussion of disarmament. In case of any attempt to enter the military base, we will use all means, up to lethal force." A unit of Ukrainian marines was also holed up in a base in the Crimean port of Feodosia, where they refused to disarm. Elsewhere on the occupied peninsula, the Russian troops assumed a lower profile on Sunday after the pro-Moscow Crimean leader said overnight the situation was now "normalized". Putin's justification citing the need to protect Russian citizens was the same as he used to launch a 2008 invasion of Georgia, where Russian forces seized two breakaway regions. In Russia, state-controlled media portray Yanukovich's removal as a coup by dangerous extremists funded by the West and there has been little sign of dissent with that line. In Donetsk, Yanukovich's home city, the local government building was flying the Russian flag for the second day on Sunday. The local authorities have called for a referendum on the region's status, a move Kiev says is illegal. A pro-Russian "self-defence" unit held a second day of protest, attracting about 1,000 demonstrators carrying Russian flags. (Additional reporting by Peter Graff, Sabina Zawadzki, Pavel Polityuk, Timothy Heritage and Stephen Grey in Kiev, Lina Kushch in Donetsk, Peter Apps and Guy Faulconbridge in London, Will Dunham, Arshad Mohammed and Matt Spetalnick in Washington, and Lou Charbonneau at the United Nations; Writing by Peter Graff, Paul Taylor, Frances Kerry and Peter Cooney; Editing by Philippa Fletcher, Meredith Mazzilli and Mohammad Zargham) ====================== Russian markets plunge as Putin tightens Crimea grip Mon, Mar 03 22:00 PM EST 1 of 10 By Lidia Kelly and Alissa de Carbonnel MOSCOW/PEREVALNOYE, Ukraine (Reuters) - Russia paid a heavy financial price on Monday for its military intervention in neighboring Ukraine, with stocks, bonds and the ruble plunging as President Vladimir Putin's forces tightened their grip on the Russian-speaking Crimea region. The Moscow stock market fell 10.8 percent, wiping nearly $60 billion off the value of Russian companies, more than the $51 billion Russia spent on the Winter Olympics in Sochi last month. The central bank spent as much as $12 billion of its reserves to prop up the ruble as investors reacted to tensions with the West over the former Soviet republic. Putin declared at the weekend he had the right to invade Ukraine to protect Russian interests and citizens. Moscow's U.N. envoy told a stormy meeting of the Security Council on Monday that Ukraine's ousted leader Viktor Yanukovich had sent a letter to Putin requesting he use Russia's military to restore law and order in Ukraine. The United States began spelling out its response to Russia's incursion, announcing on Monday night it had suspended all military engagements with Russia over the crisis in Ukraine, including military exercises and port visits, and had put trade and investment talks with Moscow on hold. President Barack Obama met for over two hours on Monday with his national security advisers to discuss what steps the United States and its allies could take to "further isolate" Russia, a White House official said. "Over time this will be a costly proposition for Russia. And now is the time for them to consider whether they can serve their interests in a way that resorts to diplomacy as opposed to force," Obama told reporters earlier. The State Department said the United States was preparing to impose sanctions on Russia over the intervention, although no decisions had yet been made. Members of the U.S. Congress are looking at options including sanctions on Russia's banks and freezing assets of Russian public institutions and private investors, but they said they wanted European countries to step up their involvement. Secretary of State John Kerry will propose ways in which a negotiation between Russia and Ukraine can be overseen by a multilateral organization when he goes to Kiev on Tuesday, Obama said. The European Union threatened unspecified "targeted measures" unless Russia returns its forces to their bases and opens talks with Ukraine's new government. Western leaders have sent a barrage of warnings to Putin against armed action, threatening economic and diplomatic consequences, but are not considering a military response. SHOW OF STRENGTH? In his first public appearance for nearly a week, Putin flew to watch military maneuvers in western Russia in what appeared designed as a show of strength. Russia's Black Sea fleet denied reports it had given Ukrainian forces in Crimea an ultimatum to surrender by early Tuesday or face attack, Interfax news agency said. The United States said any such threat would be a dangerous escalation. Ukraine's acting president said Russia's military presence in Crimea was growing. Ukrainian officials said Russia was building up armor on its side of the 4.5-km (2.7- mile) wide Kerch strait between the Crimean peninsula and southern Russia. Russian forces later began shipping truckloads of troops by ferry into the Crimea region after seizing the border post on the Ukrainian side, Ukraine's border guards spokesman said. A Reuters reporting crew at the ferry terminal in Crimea later on Monday saw no sign of unusual activity. Kiev's U.N. ambassador, Yuriy Sergeyev, said Russia had deployed roughly 16,000 troops to Crimea since last week. Both sides have so far avoided bloodshed, but the market turmoil highlighted damage the crisis could wreak on Russia's vulnerable economy, making it harder to balance the budget and potentially undermining business and public support for Putin. Russian Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach said market "hysteria" would subside but that strains with Brussels and Washington would continue to weigh on the economy. On the ground in Perevalnoye, halfway between the Crimean capital, Simferopol, and the Black Sea, hundreds of Russian troops in trucks and armored vehicles were surrounding two military compounds. The troops, who had no national insignia on their uniforms, were confining Ukrainian soldiers, who have refused to surrender, as virtual prisoners. Ukraine called up reservists on Sunday after Putin's action provoked what British Foreign Secretary William Hague called "the biggest crisis in Europe in the twenty-first century". The U.S. Defense Department said that although it found value in military-to-military relations with Russia, "we have, in light of recent events in Ukraine, put on hold all military-to-military engagements." Rear Admiral John Kirby added that despite media speculation about possible ship movements in the region, "there has been no change to our military posture in Europe or the Mediterranean." NATO allies will hold emergency talks on the crisis on Tuesday, for the second time in three days, following a request from Poland, a neighbor of Ukraine. European Union foreign ministers held out the threat of sanctions against Russia on Monday if Moscow fails to withdraw its troops from Ukraine, while offering to mediate between the two, alongside other international bodies. EU leaders will hold an emergency summit on Thursday. But possible divisions emerged, with the BBC citing a document, inadvertently shown to a photographer, that said Britain opposes trade sanctions on Russia and does not want to shut London's financial capital to Russians in response to the Kremlin's intervention in Ukraine. A spokeswoman for British Prime Minister David Cameron's office said it did not comment on leaked documents. But she added, "The Prime Minister is clear that continuing to violate Ukraine's sovereignty will have costs and consequences." OBSERVER MISSION The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or OSCE, said it was trying to convene an international contact group to help defuse the crisis after Germany said Chancellor Angela Merkel had persuaded Putin to accept such an initiative. Switzerland, which chairs the pan-European security body, said the group could discuss sending observers to Ukraine to monitor the rights of national minorities. "There will be very, very broad consensus for that monitoring mission. We call on Russia to join that consensus, make the right choice and pull back its forces," U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland told OSCE envoys in Vienna. The Russian central bank raised its key lending rate by 1.5 percentage points after the ruble fell to all-time lows. Tension over Ukraine also knocked 2 to 3 percent off European stock markets and 1 percent off Wall Street, and sent safe haven gold to a four-month high. Chicago wheat futures rose more than 5 percent and corn about 4 percent amid fears of disruption to shipments from the Black Sea, a major grain-exporting zone. Russian gas monopoly Gazprom, which supplies Europe through Ukraine, was down nearly 14 percent. Gazprom's finance chief warned Ukraine that it may raise gas prices from next month, accusing Kiev of a patchy payments record, but said gas transit to Europe was normal. Ukraine has been stocking up on gas imports in the past few days to beat a feared rise, a spokesman for its gas transit monopoly said. Ukraine's pro-Western prime minister, Arseny Yatseniuk, whose government took power when Yanukovich, a Russian ally, fled on February 21 after three months of street protests, said Putin had effectively declared war on his nation. Yatseniuk said the government planned to cut spending by 14 to 16 percent as Ukraine prepared for talks on Tuesday with the International Monetary Fund to avert the danger of default. RUSSIAN FLAGS FLYING Russian forces seized Crimea, an isolated Black Sea peninsula with an ethnic Russian majority, without firing a shot. All eyes are now on whether Russia makes a military move in predominantly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, where pro-Moscow demonstrators have marched and raised Russian flags over public buildings in several cities in the last three days. Pro-Russian protesters besieged lawmakers inside the regional government building in the eastern city of Donetsk, Yanukovich's hometown, on Monday in the latest such action. Russia has staged war games with 150,000 troops along the land border, but so far they have not crossed. Kiev says Moscow is orchestrating the protests to justify a wider invasion. At an emergency Security Council meeting, Russia's U.N. ambassador and Western envoys hurled allegations at each other for 2-1/2 hours.

"Under the influence of Western countries, there are open acts of terror and violence," Russian envoy Vitaly Churkin quoted the letter from Yanukovich as saying, brandishing a copy of it. "People are being persecuted for language and political reasons."

Churkin repeated Moscow's view that Yanukovich was Ukraine's legitimate leader, not interim President Oleksander Turchinov. U.S. envoy Samantha Power said there was no evidence ethnic Russians or Russian-speakers in Ukraine were under threat. Power said there was "no legal basis" for Russia to justify its military deployments in Ukraine through an invitation from the regional prime minister of the Crimea, adding only Ukraine's parliament could do that. Churkin shot back that Power appeared to have gotten all her information about Ukraine "from U.S. TV." A German spokesman said Merkel believed it was not too late to resolve the Ukrainian crisis by political means. The German leader, who speaks fluent Russian, has had several long telephone calls with the German-speaking Putin since the crisis erupted with mass protests in Kiev, creating a major policy dilemma for Berlin, which is heavily dependent on Russian gas and has close economic ties. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met his German counterpart, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, in Geneva on Monday, a Russian diplomat said. Lavrov will meet EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton in Madrid on Tuesday, RIA Novosti agency said. On Kiev's Independence Square, or Maidan, where anti-Yanukovich protesters manned barricades for three months, crowds were smaller than in recent days as people returned to work. "Crimea, we are with you!" read one placard. "Putin - Hitler of the 21st century," read another. (Additional reporting by Peter Graff, Sabina Zawadzki, Pavel Polityuk, Natalia Zinets, Timothy Heritage and Stephen Grey in Kiev, Lina Kushch in Donetsk, Peter Apps in London, Steve Holland, Phil Stewart, Jeff Mason, Mark Felsenthal and Patricia Zengerle in Washington, and Lou Charbonneau at the United Nations; Writing by Paul Taylor, Alistair Lyon and Peter Cooney; Editing by Janet Lawrence and Mohammad Zargham) ==================== Russia allowed to have 25,000 troops in Crimea since 1999...and other facts you didn’t know Published time: March 04, 2014 20:07 Edited time: March 05, 2014 03:33 Get short URL Ukrainian marines look at a Russian ship floating out of the Sevastopol bay on March 4, 2014 (AFP Photo / Viktor Drachev) Share on tumblrTrends Ukraine turmoil Tags Conflict, Politics, Russia, Ukraine Ukraine’s statement at the UN that 16,000 Russian soldiers have been deployed to Crimea has caused a frenzy among Western media which chooses to ignore that those troops have been there since the late 1990s in accordance with a Kiev-Moscow agreement. Western media describes the situation in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea as if a full-scale Russian invasion were under way, with headlines like: “Ukraine says Russia sent 16,000 troops to Crimea” and “Ukraine crisis deepens as Russia sends more troops into Crimea,” as well as “What can Obama do about Russia's invasion of Crimea?” It seems they have chosen to simply ignore the fact that those Russian troops have been stationed in Crimea for over a decade. Russia’s representative to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, reminded on Tuesday that the deal surrounding the Black Sea Fleet allows Russia to station a contingent of up to 25,000 troops in Ukraine. However, US and British media have mostly chosen to turn a deaf ear. People watch a Russian Navy ship enter the Crimean port city of Sevastopol March 2, 2014 (Reuters / Baz Ratner) Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov underlined that the country’s military “strictly executes the agreements which stipulate the Russian fleet’s presence in Ukraine, and follows the stance and claims coming from the legitimate authority in Ukraine and in this case the legitimate authority of the Autonomous Republic Crimea as well.” So here are the facts, numbers, and details of this long-standing (but rarely cited) deal: 1) The Black Sea Fleet has been disputed between Russia and Ukraine since the collapse of the Soviet Union back in 1991. 2) In 1997, the sides finally managed to find common ground and signed three agreements determining the fate of the military bases and vessels in Crimea. Two years later, in 1999, the Russian and Ukrainian parliaments ratified them. Russia has received 81.7 percent of the fleet’s ships after paying the Ukrainian government a compensation of US$526.5 million. 3) Moscow also annually writes off $97.75 million of Kiev’s debt for the right to use Ukrainian waters and radio frequency resources, and for the environmental impact caused by the Black Sea Fleet’s operations. 4) According to the initial agreement, the Russian Black Sea Fleet was to stay in Crimea until 2017, but the deal was later prolonged for another 25 years. 5) The 1997 deal allows the Russian navy to have up to 25,000 troops, 24 artillery systems with a caliber smaller than 100 mm, 132 armored vehicles, and 22 military planes on Ukrainian territory. Ukrainian marines look at a Russian ship floating out of the Sevastopol bay on March 4, 2014 (AFP Photo / Viktor Drachev) 6) In compliance with those accords, there are currently five Russian naval units stationed in the port city of Sevastopol in the Crimean peninsula: - The 30th Surface Ship Division formed by the 11th Antisubmarine Ship Brigade, which includes the Black Sea Fleet’s flagship guard missile cruiser Moskva as well as Kerch, Ochakov, Smetlivy, Ladny, and Pytlivy vessels, and the 197th Landing Ship Brigade, consisting of seven large amphibious vessels; - The 41st Missile Boat Brigade, which includes the 166th Fast Attack Craft Division, consisting of Bora and Samum hovercrafts as well as small missile ships Mirazh and Shtil, and 295th missile Boat Division; - The 247th Separate Submarine Division, consisting of two diesel submarines – B-871 Alrosa and B-380 Svyatoy Knyaz Georgy; - The 68th Harbor Defense Ship Brigade formed by the 400th Antisubmarine Ship Battalion of four vessels and 418 Mine Hunting Ship Division, which consist of four ships as well; - The 422nd Separate Hydrographic Ship Division, which includes Cheleken, Stvor, Donuzlav and GS-402 survey vessels as well as a group of hydrographic boats. 7) Besides the naval units, Moscow also has two airbases in Crimea, which are situated in the towns of Kacha and Gvardeysky. 8) The Russian coastal forces in Ukraine consist of the 1096th Separate Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment in Sevastopol and the 810th Marine Brigade, which hosts around 2,000 marines. (Several other coastal units of the Black Sea Fleet are located in Russia’s Krasnodar Region, including the 11th Separate Coastal Missile Brigade in Anapa, the 382th Separate Marine Battalion, and a naval reconnaissance station in Temryuk). Last week, Russia’s Federation Council unanimously approved President Vladimir Putin’s request to send the country’s military forces to Ukraine to ensure peace and order in the region “until the socio-political situation in the country is stabilized.” However, the final say about deploying troops lies with Putin, who hasn’t yet made such a decision, stressing that deploying military force would be a last resort. Authorities in the Ukrainian Autonomous Republic of Crimea – where more than half the population is Russian – requested Moscow’s assistance after the self-proclaimed government in Kiev introduced a law abolishing the use of languages other than Ukrainian in official circumstances. People watch a Russian Navy ship enter the Crimean port city of Sevastopol March 2, 2014 (Reuters / Baz Ratner) ====================== In Ukraine's Crimea, a tense and surreal standoff Thu, Mar 06 06:16 AM EST 1 of 4 By Alissa de Carbonnel KERCH, Ukraine (Reuters) - Holed up on their bases, Ukraine's besieged servicemen and the Russians surrounding them in Crimea are locked in a standoff that at times is tense and at others surreal. Almost a week after Russian forces began their swift and bloodless takeover of the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula, there is a standoff as the two sides dig in and play a waiting game. The Russians have swatted down isolated attempts by the Ukrainian forces to claw back control but stopped short of using major force. There has been no big clash and no deaths. "Where it was possible they made a show of it ... They came and pushed the door in, but you can't come push our door," said Major Alexei Nikiforov, deputy commander of a Ukrainian marine battalion in Kerch, just across a narrow strait from Russia. Russian navy ships have blockaded the Kerch Strait linking the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov, Ukrainian officials say, portraying it as part of efforts to seal off the Ukrainian servicemen and force them to surrender or change sides. Under his breath, a fellow officer of Nikiforov mumbled: "They are trying to break us." Deadlines that now seem a bluff have come and gone: ultimatums for the Ukrainian forces to surrender and swear an oath to Crimea's regional administration, now effectively under Moscow's command. Moscow has moved some 16,000 troops onto the Crimean peninsula in addition to its forces already there, the Ukrainian government says. Ukraine has fewer than 20,000 navy and other military personnel stranded on bases across Crimea. Outgunned but loyal to Kiev, they want to avoid confrontation with Russian forces with whom they have long cohabited on the Crimean peninsula, which is home to a Russian Black Sea Fleet's base. When Russian-speaking gunmen clad in black forced their way into a Ukrainian border control post in Kerch overnight on Monday, there was no battle. "The first shot fired would escalate the conflict, so we decided not to use arms to defend the base," said Captain Sergei Shamshurov, an aide to the commander of the border control post. The fathers and grandfathers of some of the men involved in this crisis fought on the same side in the Soviet armed forces before the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. Many have relatives in Russia. WARNING SHOTS In Kerch, Ukrainian and Russian servicemen stand around casually, weapons unloaded, an arm's length from each other. "We are with them as with our own," said a young Ukrainian wearing a traditional fur hat and combat fatigues. Warning shots fired over the heads of Ukrainian air force pilots who tried to take back their war planes at the Belbek military airfield, on another side of the peninsula, appear to be the only shots fired so far. During negotiations at Belbek, which ended with the pilots returning to their barracks, some of the Ukrainians passed their time by playing football. The Russians simply looked on, showing no emotion. "It's like they are robots. When you try to talk to them, they only crack jokes. We gave up," said Shamshurov, who has remained at the Kerch border control post where they offered the use of their toilet to the intruders. "We still do what we did everyday and raise the flag ... We have not surrendered. We have not betrayed our oath." On Sunday, Ukraine's newly appointed navy commander publicly changed sides, and Russian state television has been touting a string of other unconfirmed defections in an effort to pile pressure on the Ukrainian troops. Some Ukrainian servicemen saw their Slavic brothers as protection - not against Ukrainian nationalists, as Russian media and officials suggest, but against pro-Russian mobs that have surrounded bases in response to inflammatory media reports. "The presence of an army from our neighboring country is irritating, but at the moment it is standing between us and our people who want some kind of radical change," Nikiforov said, choosing his words cautiously. "All decisions must be made through the ballot boxes and not with clubs." On the other side, there have also been misleading media reports of Russians overrunning bases, apparently to portray the enemy in a more negative light or perhaps to stir foreign governments in to action. Ukrainian television has aired messages from people in other parts of the country wishing the troops strength. TCH TV showed one man hugging his daughter and urging: "Don't give in to provocations." How long can the Ukrainian forces hold out and how long will the Russians' patience last is unclear. The West is pushing for Russia to return troops to barracks, and accept international monitors in Crimea. The next flashpoint could be the newly installed, pro-Russian authorities' planned referendum on Crimea's future on March 30. Until then, the waiting game could go on. "We hope our politicians put away their ambitions and don't make us shoot at one another," said Nikiforov. "At the end of the day, we are people who follow orders. Today we smile, but tomorrow we might get order to shoot." (Reporting by Timothy Heritage; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)

Kerry urges Russia to join U.S., allies in helping Ukraine

Kerry urges Russia to join U.S., allies in helping Ukraine Thu, Feb 27 15:56 PM EST WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry urged Russia on Thursday to join the United States and allies in stabilizing Ukraine and said he would watch closely whether Moscow keeps its word not to interfere in the internal affairs of the former Soviet republic. Kerry's comments came as Ukraine warned Russia about troop movements after armed men seized the parliament in Ukraine's Crime region and raised the Russian flag. Kerry said he spoke by phone on Thursday to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who reaffirmed earlier statements by President Vladimir Putin that Moscow would respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Lavrov also underscored that Russian military exercises on the border of Ukraine were previously scheduled and not related to events in Ukraine, Kerry added. "We believe that everybody now needs to step back and avoid any kind of provocations," Kerry said during a news conference with his German counterpart, Frank-Walter Steinmeier. "We want to see in the next days ahead that the choices Russia makes conform to this affirmation we received today," Kerry said. Moscow has said it will not intervene by force, although its rhetoric since the removal of ally President Viktor Yanukovich by Ukraine's parliament appears to echo that of the run-up to its invasion of Georgia in 2009. Steinmeier welcomed the formation on Thursday of an interim government in Ukraine. He said the government should be given the breathing space to stabilize the country and cautioned that now was not the time to try to pressure it to turn more to the West. "Given the critical situation, it is important that Ukraine is given breathing space, a reprieve, in order to stabilize the situation on the ground," Steinmeier said through an interpreter. "It ought not to be our mission at this particular point in time to draw Ukraine towards the West or to the East." Steinmeier said he would meet the head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, on Friday and hoped the institution would move quickly to approve emergency funding for Ukraine, which is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. He said the European Union would likely provide about $1 billion in funding assistance to Ukraine. Kerry said on Wednesday the United States was considering $1 billion in loan guarantees to Ukraine as well as budget support to help its ailing economy. Steinmeier said the international community first needed to assess how much funding Ukraine needed. "We have heard many different figures placed on the table. It is difficult for anyone to give an exact idea how much Ukraine needs (because) Yanukovich has kept the figures hidden under his desk," he added. Both Europe and the United States have insisted that Ukraine must seek an IMF program before they disburse funding to Kiev. An IMF program would include economic reforms to put the country's struggling economy on a sounder footing. (Reporting by Lesley Wroughton and Sabine Siebold; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Peter Cooney) =================== Armed standoff in pro-Russian region raises Ukraine tension Fri, Feb 28 02:05 AM EST image 1 of 4 By Alessandra Prentice and Alissa de Carbonnel SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine (Reuters) - The United States told Russia to demonstrate in coming days that it was sincere about its promise not to intervene in Ukraine as armed men stormed the regional parliament and hours later others seized the airport in a mainly ethnic Russian region. Crimea, the only Ukrainian region with an ethnic Russian majority, is the last big bastion of opposition to the new leadership in Kiev since pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovich was ousted at the weekend. The region also provides a base for the Russian navy's Black Sea Fleet. Kiev's new rulers said any movement by Russian forces beyond the base's territory would be tantamount to aggression. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had assured him by telephone that Moscow would not intervene militarily in its neighbor. "We believe that everybody now needs to take a step back and avoid any kind of provocations," Kerry said at a joint news conference with German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier. "We want to see in the next days ahead that the choices Russia makes conform to this affirmation we received today." The United States pledged its support for the new government in a call on Thursday by Vice President Joe Biden to Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk. Yanukovich, who fled Kiev after scores of demonstrators were killed last week, was expected to hold a news conference in Russia on Friday. He has declared he is still Ukraine's president, but has lost support even in regions where the ethnic Ukrainian population mainly speaks Russian as he does. Crimea, which was administered as part of Russia within the Soviet Union until it was transferred to Ukraine in 1954, is a more tendentious question. Separatism there has often flared up at times of tension between Moscow and Kiev. A group of armed men in military uniforms seized the main regional airport in Simferopol, Crimea, Interfax news agency said early on Friday. A day before, unidentified gunmen seized the Crimean parliament and raised a Russian flag. The gunmen issued no demands and police hardly seemed to treat the event as a major security incident. Instead, they casually guarded the building while hundreds of pro-Russian demonstrators assembled, including elderly people who danced cheerfully to recordings of Soviet martial music. The regional parliament even managed to hold a session inside the building on Thursday despite the siege, where it voted to stage a referendum on "sovereignty" for Crimea. By the early hours of Friday, police guarding the building would not say what had happened to the gunmen or whether they were even still there. Russia's flag still flew from its roof and lights were on in the windows of its top floor. Oleksander Turchinov, Ukraine's acting president, warned Russia not to move personnel beyond areas permitted by treaty for those using its naval base: "Any military movements, the more so if they are with weapons, beyond the boundaries of this territory will be seen by us as military aggression," he said. Russia has repeatedly declared it will defend the interests of its citizens in Ukraine, and on Wednesday announced war games near the border involving 150,000 troops on high alert. Kerry said Lavrov told him the war games were pre-planned. Although Moscow says it will not intervene by force, its rhetoric since the removal of its ally Yanukovich has echoed the runup to its invasion of Georgia in 2008, when it sent its troops to protect two self-declared independent regions and then recognized them as independent states. Witness accounts suggest those who captured the Crimean parliament building in the early hours of Thursday were pro-Russian gunmen of some kind. "We were building barricades in the night to protect parliament. Then this young Russian guy came up with a pistol ... we all lay down, some more ran up, there was some shooting and around 50 went in through the window," Leonid Khazanov, an ethnic Russian, told Reuters. "I asked them what they wanted, and they said 'To make our own decisions, not to have Kiev telling us what to do'." Ukraine's new interior minister, Arsen Avakov, said the attackers had automatic weapons and machine guns. The regional prime minister said on Thursday he had spoken to the people by telephone, but they had not made any demands or said why they were there. They had promised to call him back but had not done so, he said. With the siege apparently still under way, the regional parliament met in another part of the building and voted to hold its referendum on May 25, the day Ukraine plans to elect a new president to replace Yanukovich. The measure, if passed, would declare Crimea sovereign, with its relationship to the rest of Ukraine governed by treaty. The pro-Russian crowd outside cheered the news. "In three months we will have a chance to choose our future," said Yuri Lukashev, 58, a carpenter standing in a group of other ethnic Russian men outside the building late at night. "We're celebrating our victory. It's a chance for peace in Crimea, guaranteed by Russia." However, elsewhere there was some anger at the invasion of the regional parliament and the flying of the Russian flag.

Alexander Vostruyev, 60, in a leather cap and white beard, said: "It's disgrace that the flag of a foreign country is flying on our parliament ... It's like a man coming home to find his wife in bed with another man."

(Writing by Peter Graff; Editing by Bernard Orr and Lisa Shumaker)