5G in 2020 – will Pakistan leapfrog or stay behind?

By Shahram Haq Published: August 7, 2016 4 SHARES Share Tweet Email With the advent of 3G and 4G services, Pakistan has already been witnessing an information technology revolution that has enabled hundreds of startups to develop and build businesses. PHOTO: FILE With the advent of 3G and 4G services, Pakistan has already been witnessing an information technology revolution that has enabled hundreds of startups to develop and build businesses. PHOTO: FILE LAHORE: The telecom users in Pakistan will enjoy seamless connectivity with over 30 times more speed than the current 4G technology as the world’s fastest and most technologically advanced fifth generation (5G) internet technology is poised to enter the market in the next few years. Slated for launch in 2020, the 5G technology will offer data speeds of up to 1 gigabyte (GB) per second and during trial as high as 10GB per second. Pakistan’s 3G/4G users doubled to 29.53 million in FY16 While mobile data consumption across the world may be rising, the advent of 5G will transform the possibilities of what smartphones and other mobile devices are capable of achieving. The next generation technology will use the ‘millimetre wave’ radio spectrum. Higher frequencies, like this, are capable of carrying a significant amount of data, although more research is needed before this technology hits the market in 2020. It is still not certain which countries will take the lead in launching the 5G technology, however, experts say South Korea and China are expected to be on the front followed by Japan and the United States. While 5G will be an extension of 3G and 4G, it is expected to be dramatically different. 5G will be incredibly fast, in fact a lot faster than the existing technologies, but this is only one side of the story. 5G also has the potential to open up new avenues for integrated smart cities, self-driving cars, star wars-inspired hologram phones and even autonomous drones. According to a report of the World Bank, a 10% increase in high-speed internet connections leads to a rise of 1.3% in economic growth. This means that by connecting 327 million people around the world with high-speed internet, the global gross domestic product (total size of the world economy) can be boosted by $1 trillion. Pakistan’s LTE speeds one of the slowest in the world For developing countries like Pakistan, such endeavours can positively contribute to ensuring sustainable and inclusive growth and might be Pakistan’s best bet towards poverty reduction and increased productivity. The million-dollar question remains, “Will developing countries, like Pakistan, leapfrog ahead or be left behind, as the world is attempting to enter the fourth industrial revolution?” Companies at the forefront The technological giants at the forefront of introducing the 5G technology are China Mobile, Nokia, DoCoMo, Huawei, Samsung and Ericsson. The world’s most superior internet technology will provide virtually unending broadcast data in gigabits. 5G technology is fully compatible with the previous generations including 4G, 3G and 2G. It will be empowered to provide uniform, uninterrupted and smooth services across the globe. 5G in Pakistan Minister of State for Information Technology and Telecom Anusha Rehman has recently indicated that 5G technology will be introduced in Pakistan by 2020. This has been a welcome announcement and China Mobile, according to media reports, has expressed its interest and asked the PTA to allow it to use 5G spectrum on a trial basis. Reports suggest that China Mobile has completed first phase of the 5G programme in China, where it tested new wave forms and key technologies. 3G/4G users up 3.74%, but growth slowing China Mobile and Huawei have also showcased 5G 3.5GHz prototype, 5G above 6GHz high-band prototype, 5G network slicing solutions, 5G smart car use case solution along with other 5G innovations in the Mobile World Congress in Shanghai. It is expected that Zong, a China Mobile company, will be looking to initiate tests of the prototypes already developed and being conducted in China. With the advent of 3G and 4G services, Pakistan has already been witnessing an information technology revolution that has enabled hundreds of startups to develop and build businesses around these technologies. 5G, which will focus on the ‘Internet of Things’, will enable a technological revolution of a different kind, where an entire digital ecosystem will be woven around people’s lives through the internet. Let’s hope that Pakistan is part of the 5G revolution and is included in the first group of global operators to test the new technology for commercial use in the near future. The writer is a staff correspondent Published in The Express Tribune, August 8th, 2016.

India’s Energy Ties With Iran Unsettle Washington

India’s relentless search for hydrocarbons to fuel its booming economy has managed the rather neat diplomatic trick of annoying Washington, delighting Tehran and intriguing Baghdad, all the while leaving the Indian Treasury fretting about how to pay for its oil imports, given tightening sanctions on fiscal dealings with Iran. On 7 June the US State Department reluctantly announced that it was renewing India’s six-month waivers for implementing sanctions against Iran, along with seven other countries eligible for waivers from the sanctions owing to good faith efforts to substantially reduce their Iranian oil imports. In New Delhi’s case, it is the U.S. and EU-led sanctions rather than any willingness on India’s part that has seen a fall in its Iranian oil imports. India is the second largest buyer of Iranian oil, a nation with whom it has traditionally had close ties. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that India, China, Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey, and Taiwan had all qualified for an exception to sanctions under America's Iran Sanctions Act, based on additional significant reductions in the volume of their crude oil purchases from Iran. Kerry told reporters, "Today's determination is another example of the international community's strong and steady commitment to convince Iran to meet its international obligations. This determination takes place against the backdrop of other recent actions the administration has taken to increase pressure on Iran, including the issuance of a new executive order on June 3. The message to the Iranian regime from the international community is clear: take concrete actions to satisfy the concerns of the international community, or face increasing isolation and pressure." Related article: Japan-India Nuclear Deal, Last Piece in Corporate Nuclear Game But even with Washington’s beneficence, New Delhi is struggling to find ways to pay for its Iranian oil imports. The U.S. and European sanctions have deeply affected Iran’s international oil trade, reducing its exports by more than 50 percent and costing Iran billions of dollars in revenue since the beginning on last year. Tightening the screws, the Obama administration is now attempting to reduce Iran’s oil exports even further, to less than 500,000 barrels per day through tighter sanctions. Nevertheless, despite plummeting sales overseas, Iran, OPEC’s second largest oil exporter, remains one of the world's largest oil producers, with sales bringing in tens of billions of dollars in revenue annually. And Iran is anxious to keep India as a favored customer. Last month Iran offered India lucrative terms for developing its oilfields, routing a proposed natural gas pipeline through the sea to avoid Pakistan as well as insurance to Indian refiners provided New Delhi raised oil imports. Making its case, Iran sent a high-level delegation led by Oil Minister Rostam Ghasemi to India to urge New Delhi to raise its oil purchases, which slid to 13.3 million tons in 2012-13 from 18 million tons in 2011-12. Heightening Iran’s concerns, later this year Indian imports are slated to fall further to around 11 million tons. After meeting Ghasemi Indian Oil Minister M. Veerappa Moily issued a statement noting, “The Iranian side encouraged the Indian side to increase its crude purchase. “The Indian side explained that it would encourage companies to maintain their engagement in terms of crude oil purchase, taking into account their requirements, based on commercial and international considerations.” While Iranian-Indian trade ties continue to deepen, with Indian-based Consul General of Iran Hassan Nourian predicting that bilateral trade between India and Iran will be worth $25 billion by 2017, India is hedging its bets about energy imports, and where to make up the shortfall from the increased sanctions regime. …and what better place to look than the Middle East’s rising petro-state, Iraq? India’s External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid is heading for Baghdad for a two-day visit beginning 19 June. Related article: Oil Demand in China and India Falling – Proof Prices are Too High! Top of the agenda? Oil - Iraq is now India’s second largest supplier of oil after Saudi Arabia, having replaced Iran and become a “critical partner” of India. It is a potential marriage made in heaven. Iraq needs an assured market for its increasing crude production, having set itself a production target of 7 million bpd from its current 3 million bpd, while India is in search of a long-term partnership with a major oil producer. While such deepening ties will thrill Washington as much as they distress Iran, there is still a wild card in the Iraqi mix – China, now Iraq’s biggest customer, already purchasing nearly half the oil that Iraq produces, almost 1.5 million barrels a day. Worse still for Indian aspirations, China is now trying for an even bigger share, bidding for a stake currently owned by Exxon Mobil in one of Iraq’s largest oil fields, West Qurna. New Delhi’s choices are stark – make Washington happy, alienate long-time partner Iran, and keep fingers crossed that Beijing doesn’t stitch up any further Iraqi concessions. Tough call. http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/oil-price/indias-energy-ties-with-iran-unsettle-washington =========================== Exclusive: China Mobile, Etisalat weighing bids for Pakistan telco - sources Tue, Jun 25 07:08 AM EDT By Dinesh Nair and Matt Smith DUBAI (Reuters) - Pakistan mobile operator Warid Telecom has been put up for sale by its Abu Dhabi owners and is likely to draw interest from China Mobile and Etisalat, sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday. The Abu Dhabi Group, a conglomerate led by a ruling family member in the oil-rich emirate, is seeking to sell all 100-percent of shares in Warid Telecom, two of the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The third source, however, said the company would also be prepared to sell a smaller controlling stake. Pakistan's mobile telecommunications sector has five operators and is ripe for consolidation after a period when a troubled economy, increasingly high levels of market penetration and stiff competition has forced companies' margins lower. The sellers have mandated U.S. investment bank Lazard and British lender Standard Chartered as advisers for the process, the sources said. One estimated a sale could fetch about $1 billion. Walid Irshaid, the chief executive of Pakistan Telecommunications (PTCL), a unit of United Arab Emirates-based Etisalat, said the company is weighing a potential bid. "We are interested to see if it makes sense for us, but it's not only us. Warid is an existing operator that has been here for many years and so we're saying 'let's look at the prospects,'" he told Reuters. "There are too many players in Pakistan. Margins have eroded for everybody and the market must consolidate - we're all operating under low margins and low ARPU (average revenue per user) and that isn't long-term sustainable." Warid Telecom declined to comment. China Mobile, which has increased its subscriber base by nearly three-quarters since 2010-11 and operates under the Zong brand, was not immediately for comment. SHRINKAGE Warid launched its cellular services in Pakistan in May 2005 and had 12.54 million subscribers at the end of March of this year, down from 17.39 million in 2010-11, making the company the country's smallest operator. Pakistan's total subscriber base rose 12.2 percent to 122.1 million over the same period, meaning Warid's market share fell to 10.3 percent from 16 percent. The other operators in Pakistan are Oslo-based Telenor and Orascom Telecom, which operates under the name Mobilink and is the sector leader. Neither was immediately available for comment. PTCL's mobile business is under the Ufone brand, while it has a 95 percent share of the country's fixed line subscribers. "The board (Warid Telecom) has been looking for a business partner to add value to Warid," a second source familiar with the matter said, adding China Mobile and Etisalat had both expressed interest in acquiring the company. In 2007, Singapore Telcommunications bought a 30-percent stake in Warid for about $758 million. That stake purchase gave Warid Telecom an enterprise value of about $2.5 billion. SingTel sold back that stake in January for $150 million and a right to receive 7.5 percent of the net proceeds from any future sale, public offering or merger of Warid. The Abu Dhabi conglomerate also agreed to sell Warid Telecom's Uganda business to Bharti Airtel in April without revealing the financial details of the transaction. Bharti recently agreed to buy the remaining 30 percent in Warid Telecom Bangladesh after taking a 70 pct stake in that business in 2010. The Abu Dhabi Group, led by ruling family member Sheikh Nahayan Mabarak al-Nahayan, invests in emerging markets and also has large investments in Pakistan including Bank Alfalah Ltd, Al Razi Healthcare and Wateen Telecom. (Additional reporting by Devidutta Tripathy in New Delhi and Lee Chyen Yee in Hong Kong; Editing by Patrick Graham) ======================