German conservative says "Grexit" best solution for all

Greece's Varoufakis: Rather 'cut my arm off' than agree to current deal Published time: July 02, 2015 16:35 Get short URL Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis (Reuters / Marko Djurica) Bailout, Crisis, EU, Economy, Greece Greece’s Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has pledged to resign if Greeks voted ‘Yes’ in Sunday’s referendum on the country’s bailout. He also said he would “prefer to cut my arm off” rather than sign the current deal with Greece’s creditors. “Everybody in the government will do what we must do in order to respect the “Yes” vote of the Greek people, but there won’t be a “Yes” vote. I am quite confident that the Greek people have had enough of extending and pretending, like the rest of the world by the way,” Varoufakis said in an interview to Bloomberg on Thursday. People got tired of “losing their dignity by signing agreements and making pledges that simply cannot be met. Because the financing is wrong,” he said. Varoufakis said that if the ‘Yes’ vote succeeds, come Sunday midnight he won’t be finance minister anymore. “But I would help whoever it is,” he added. Varoufakis complained that the country’s debt was unsustainable, saying ‘I’d better cut my arm off’ than sign the deal with creditors that doesn’t include debt reorganization. ‘Desperate’ to stay in the euro Greece “really desperately wants to stay in the euro, even if we are critical of the institutions in the framework of the euro,” Varoufakis said. “The question for the Greek people is, how do you stay in it. Do you stay by further extending and pretending? I believe not. If we sign that agreement that was offered to us by these institutions, in 6-12 months we'll be even closer to insolvency,” he said. “I won’t sign another extension and pretend. I’m allergic to extending and pretending.” The group of eurozone finance ministers has agreed that the debt talks will be paused until after Greece holds a referendum on whether or not Athens should agree to the international creditors’ conditions. Mr. Varoufakis said the talks would resume with European creditors even if the result on Sunday was a 'No' vote. “What we do with this economy and whether we extend the crisis by pretending to have solved it will depend on the outcome of the referendum,” he said. In the case of a 'No' vote, the Greek government would “immediately start negotiations,” Varoufakis promised. “Believe you me, there will be an agreement,” he said. Greek PM: We aim to seal deal with creditors after referendum Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras also says that a “'No' answer in the referendum would be an important step to getting a better deal – it does not mean a break-up with Europe." "I fully understand the difficulties, and I will do everything in my power so that they are temporary. Those who say the government has a plan to exit Europe are lying," he added. Tsipras said his government was facing the consequences of a fight for decent welfare: "The predominance of extreme views in Europe has led to the closure of Greek banks, to scare the ordinary Greek citizen. To protect the right of our pensioners for a decent pension, we have been fighting for five months, and now, we are facing retribution for it." ‘No banking crisis in Greece’ When asked whether the Greek banks would open next Tuesday as normal, Varoufakis said “absolutely.” “It's not a banking crisis according to the ECB and SSM the banks were perfectly capitalized there was no problem with them. What is happening is there has been a political decision to shut the banks down as a way of effectively pushing us to accept a nonviable agreement at the political level. So this is a political crisis, but nothing to do with the banks. Once the political crisis is over after the Greek people deliver their verdict, the banks will open,” he said. Meanwhile, Greeks have been queuing to withdraw money from ATMs after the government said that banks would remain closed for a week starting from Monday. Restrictions on withdrawals have been introduced following the ECB refusal to provide additional Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Greece’s banking system. ========= Joseph Stiglitz: how I would vote in the Greek referendum Neither alternative – approval or rejection of the troika’s terms – will be easy, and both carry huge risks Alexis Tsipras, leader of the radical left main opposition party Syriza, greets supporters after a rally of the party in the northern Greek port city of Thessaloniki, January 2015. Photograph: Sotiris Barbarousis/Sotiris Barbarousis/epa/Corbis Tuesday 30 June 2015 02.02 AEST Last modified on Tuesday 30 June 2015 23.29 AEST The rising crescendo of bickering and acrimony within Europe might seem to outsiders to be the inevitable result of the bitter endgame playing out between Greece and its creditors. In fact, European leaders are finally beginning to reveal the true nature of the ongoing debt dispute, and the answer is not pleasant: it is about power and democracy much more than money and economics. Of course, the economics behind the programme that the “troika” (the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund) foisted on Greece five years ago has been abysmal, resulting in a 25% decline in the country’s GDP. I can think of no depression, ever, that has been so deliberate and had such catastrophic consequences: Greece’s rate of youth unemployment, for example, now exceeds 60%. It is startling that the troika has refused to accept responsibility for any of this or admit how bad its forecasts and models have been. But what is even more surprising is that Europe’s leaders have not even learned. The troika is still demanding that Greece achieve a primary budget surplus (excluding interest payments) of 3.5% of GDP by 2018. Greece debt crisis: Athens fails to repay IMF as bailout runs out - as it happened Greece has become the first advanced economy to fall in arrears to the IMF as its second bailout expires Economists around the world have condemned that target as punitive, because aiming for it will inevitably result in a deeper downturn. Indeed, even if Greece’s debt is restructured beyond anything imaginable, the country will remain in depression if voters there commit to the troika’s target in the snap referendum to be held this weekend. In terms of transforming a large primary deficit into a surplus, few countries have accomplished anything like what the Greeks have achieved in the last five years. And, though the cost in terms of human suffering has been extremely high, the Greek government’s recent proposals went a long way toward meeting its creditors’ demands. We should be clear: almost none of the huge amount of money loaned to Greece has actually gone there. It has gone to pay out private-sector creditors – including German and French banks. Greece has gotten but a pittance, but it has paid a high price to preserve these countries’ banking systems. The IMF and the other “official” creditors do not need the money that is being demanded. Under a business-as-usual scenario, the money received would most likely just be lent out again to Greece. But, again, it’s not about the money. It’s about using “deadlines” to force Greece to knuckle under, and to accept the unacceptable – not only austerity measures, but other regressive and punitive policies. But why would Europe do this? Why are European Union leaders resisting the referendum and refusing even to extend by a few days the June 30 deadline for Greece’s next payment to the IMF? Isn’t Europe all about democracy? In January, Greece’s citizens voted for a government committed to ending austerity. If the government were simply fulfilling its campaign promises, it would already have rejected the proposal. But it wanted to give Greeks a chance to weigh in on this issue, so critical for their country’s future wellbeing. That concern for popular legitimacy is incompatible with the politics of the eurozone, which was never a very democratic project. Most of its members’ governments did not seek their people’s approval to turn over their monetary sovereignty to the ECB. When Sweden’s did, Swedes said no. They understood that unemployment would rise if the country’s monetary policy were set by a central bank that focused single-mindedly on inflation (and also that there would be insufficient attention to financial stability). The economy would suffer, because the economic model underlying the eurozone was predicated on power relationships that disadvantaged workers. Greek debt crisis: protests as EC urges yes vote in referendum – as it happened Governments of France, Germany and Italy all warn that Greeks are voting on their eurozone membership on Sunday, as banks remain shut And, sure enough, what we are seeing now, 16 years after the eurozone institutionalised those relationships, is the antithesis of democracy: many European leaders want to see the end of prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ leftist government. After all, it is extremely inconvenient to have in Greece a government that is so opposed to the types of policies that have done so much to increase inequality in so many advanced countries, and that is so committed to curbing the unbridled power of wealth. They seem to believe that they can eventually bring down the Greek government by bullying it into accepting an agreement that contravenes its mandate. It is hard to advise Greeks how to vote on 5 July. Neither alternative – approval or rejection of the troika’s terms – will be easy, and both carry huge risks. A yes vote would mean depression almost without end. Perhaps a depleted country – one that has sold off all of its assets, and whose bright young people have emigrated – might finally get debt forgiveness; perhaps, having shrivelled into a middle-income economy, Greece might finally be able to get assistance from the World Bank. All of this might happen in the next decade, or perhaps in the decade after that. By contrast, a no vote would at least open the possibility that Greece, with its strong democratic tradition, might grasp its destiny in its own hands. Greeks might gain the opportunity to shape a future that, though perhaps not as prosperous as the past, is far more hopeful than the unconscionable torture of the present. I know how I would vote. Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University. His most recent book, co-authored with Bruce Greenwald, is Creating a Learning Society: A New Approach to Growth, Development, and Social Progress. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2015. Tanks in the streets! Martial law! What has #qanda done!? | First Dog on the Moon Girls who have sex are like tape that loses its stickiness. Seriously? | Van Badham Phil Walsh: son charged with murder of Adelaide Crows coach Melbourne church CityLife apologises for warning students not to hug Phil Walsh: an old-school coach, lifted by grit and inspired by the art of the game | Michael Safi ============== Greece crisis: Tsipras accepts troika bail out proposals with conditions Eurozone finance ministers are scheduled to discuss Tsipras’s latest proposals in a conference call at 5.30pm Brussels time Hazel Sheffield Wednesday 01 July 2015 Alexis Tsipras has said that Greece will accept all bailout conditions proposed by the country’s creditors with only a handful of minor changes. In a letter sent to the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank and seen by the Financial Times, Tsipras expands his idea for a new, third €29.1 billion rescue package. "The Hellenic Republic is prepared to accept this Staff Level Agreement subject to the following amendments, additions or clarifications," the letter read. Greece will accept all the VAT proposals, Tsipras said, as long as there is a 30 per cent discount for Greek islands. The pension age will change to 67, Tsipras agreed, starting in October rather than immediately as the troika had proposed. He also asked that a ‘solidarity grant’ for poorer pensioners is phased out more slowly than the troika requested. Eurozone finance ministers are scheduled to discuss Tsipras’s latest proposals in a conference call at 5.30pm Brussels time. Markets reacted positively to the news. Vonnie Quinn ✔ ‎@VonnieQuinn Dax after FT report of Tspiras's letter to EC/ECB/IMF accepting conditions with minor changes for extension/bailout 3 ============ New Greek bailout bid mixes chutzpah with caution Athens wants a last-minute EU backstop loan to avoid a technical default if it doesn’t repay the IMF on Tuesday. Assuming the answer is no, it might convince Greeks to vote for euro exit. It could also serve as a signal to the ECB not to cut off emergency Greek bank loans. Greece makes IMF stooge in game-theory drama Athens probably won’t pay the IMF debt due on June 30. It’s a tactic - the Greek government can and will honour the debt eventually. But non-payment puts pressure on the euro zone to sweeten its deal – or to collapse Greek banks and accelerate euro exit. Corporate financiers put brave face on Greek crisis Dealmakers would be forgiven for putting almost any plan on ice, pending some sort of resolution of the Greek debt drama. The $18 billion Towers Watson-Willis merger and the IPO of market maker Flow Traders suggest that deals can still get done, even if it’s with gritted teeth.

Dealmakers would be forgiven for putting almost any plan on ice after Greece announced it would not pay debt due on June 30. Yet the $18 billion merger of Towers Watson and Willis, and the initial public offerings of market maker Flow Traders and Spanish cable telecoms operator Euskaltel, suggest that deals can still get done.

Some corporate actions are hard to curtail even in the trickiest times. In the case of a merger or takeover, the fear that price-sensitive news will leak gives a special incentive to press ahead. An IPO timetable is easier to extend. That said, sellers of stock in an IPO may conclude it is better to crack on than risk finding worse circumstances later.

Urgency varies. Companies in less need may fare better with investors. Flow Traders, for instance, isn’t raising new capital but giving existing owners an exit. A company desperate to refinance debt, on the other hand, might have more reason to press on but hold less appeal for stock buyers. Meanwhile, the merger of reinsurer Willis and professional services company Towers Watson is an all-stock transaction, which makes the union less dependent on credit markets, where Greece’s debt drama is likely to have a disruptive impact.

Flow Traders also shows it is easier to keep the show on the road if there is a strong corporate story to tell. It provides liquidity to the managers of exchange-traded financial products, and reckons that the industry’s assets under management will increase 17 percent a year to $6 trillion by 2019. Its exposure to falling asset prices is limited since as a market maker, it facilities trading activity without taking on the risk of holding stock that is unhedged.

At the 29 to 37 euro per share price range outlined on June 30, Flow Traders expects to have a market capitalisation of between 1.35 and 1.72 billion euros. That equates to a reasonable 12 and 15 times projected forward earnings. Companies and corporate finance advisers willing to be realistic about pricing will find options remain open, regardless of wider market wobbles.

http://www.flowtraders.com/

Reuters: Insurance broker Willis Group to merge with Towers Watson

Reuters: Flow Traders announces indicative price range and offer size of planned IPO

Insurance broker Willis, and Towers Watson, the consultant, said on June 30 that they plan to merge to create an entity worth around $18 billion.

Flow Traders, a market maker specialising in exchange-traded financial products, said on the same day it would pursue previously announced plans for an initial public offering. Euskaltel, a Spanish fibre telecoms company, also went ahead with its public listing of shares.

Greece will not pay a 1.6 billion euro loan installment due to the International Monetary Fund on June 30, a Greek government official confirmed.

Greece closed its banks and imposed capital controls on June 28 after bailout talks with foreign lenders broke down and the European Central Bank froze funding support to Greece’s banks.

Most popular

• Hugo Dixon: It's still possible to stop Grexit

• Chinese stock markets need more than lip service

• Capital controls hit Greek economy at worst time

• Willis-Towers Watson insure against market turmoil

• China's rate cut leaves central bank in a trap