Crunch time coming for Saudi campaign as options narrow in Yemen

Crunch time coming for Saudi campaign as options narrow in Yemen Thu, Jun 11 11:25 AM EDT image 1 of 5 By Angus McDowall NAJRAN, Saudi Arabia (Reuters) - After 11 weeks of air strikes that have failed to change the balance of power in Yemen, Saudi Arabia is running out of options to restore President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi's exiled government to Sanaa. Despite the destruction of much of their heavy weaponry, the Houthi militia and army forces loyal to former president Ali Abdullah Saleh control most of the country's populated west and still daily attack Saudi territory with mortar fire or missiles. The possibility of a ground operation in support of the ragtag local groups still fighting the Houthis in Aden, Taiz, Marib and al-Dhala appears to have been discounted by the Saudis and their allies in an Arab coalition from early on. Riyadh may soon have to face an unpalatable choice: accept the de facto control of its foes over Sanaa and cut a deal, or keep fighting with the risk of Yemen sinking into total chaos, becoming a permanent threat to Saudi security. U.N.-sponsored talks start in Geneva next week aimed at ending almost two months of war, which has killed more than 2,500 people, but there is little sign either Hadi or the Iranian-backed Houthis are ready to make compromises. From a small frontier post on a desolate, windswept plateau overlooking the Saudi border town of Najran, the distant crump of explosions reminds the handful of soldiers surrounding two armored cars that the Houthis remain entrenched nearby. A mortar fell only 100 meters from their post a few hours earlier, the soldiers said, peering through binoculars at a flat-topped Yemeni mountain, dim in the ghostly afternoon haze. Each night they watch the blasts from Saudi shells and missiles. That the militia's fighters have been able to continue lobbing mortar shells at Saudi border posts, killing over a dozen Saudi troops, shows how hard it is for even a superbly equipped military to defeat such mobile guerrilla forces. Recent suicide attacks and shootings inside the kingdom also reveal the danger posed to Riyadh by Sunni Muslim jihadists, who have taken advantage of Yemen's chaos to consolidate a presence on the other side of the long, porous border. Avoiding such disintegration in Yemen was a leading war aim of Riyadh, which believed the Houthi advance would accelerate sectarian divisions and end a Gulf-backed political process aimed at creating a stable, representative government. "The U.S. is pushing the Saudis to accept talks but they are reluctant because they are in such a weak position on the ground in Yemen," said a diplomat who follows the matter closely. IRAN Despite the fading prospect of political or military success inside Yemen, Saudi Arabia may still see its campaign as ultimately worthwhile for one big reason: Iran. For years Riyadh has accused Iran of meddling in Yemen by backing the Houthi militia. Its accusations became louder when the Houthis exploited wider chaos last year to advance from its northern stronghold to the capital Sanaa, and then overrun the government and push south. Most analysts believe Saudi fears of Iranian involvement in Yemen are overblown, and say Tehran has little control over the Houthis, but in the crucible of a wider struggle for influence, Riyadh could not accept its foe gaining power in Sanaa. An Iranian member of parliament's boast last year that Sanaa had become the fourth Arab capital to fall to Tehran's influence after Baghdad, Beirut and Damascus when the Houthis took the city seemed to confirm Saudi fears. When daily direct flights started between Tehran and Houthi-controlled Sanaa in January, Riyadh believed they were carrying weapons and other materiel that would ultimately threaten the kingdom directly. It was a turning point in their approach. "You have to remember the situation three months ago. Without strikes, the Houthis would be everywhere. The Iranians would be more present than ever before. Right or wrong, this was their feeling," said a Gulf-based diplomat on Saudi thinking. However, most senior Saudi figures now accept the military campaign can achieve little more and it is time for talks, even though the Houthis and Saleh hold the strongest cards by controlling swathes of Yemen, the diplomat said. NEGOTIATIONS Both Riyadh and Hadi's exiled government are increasingly calling for the international community to enforce U.N. Security Council resolution 2216, which was approved in April and demands the Houthis quit Yemeni cities and hand over their arms. "It is the responsibility of the international community and the security council," said Brigadier General Ahmed Asseri, the spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition, citing the example of Iraq's expulsion from Kuwait in 1991. He added the coalition was focused on implementing 2216 because it offered the best chance of stabilizing Yemen long term. "It should be implemented to make sure of a final result to this situation. We have to think strategically," he said. From the border post, where a tangle of scrub is the only sign of life on a steep slope of car-sized, pebble-smooth boulders, the chances of international intervention against a guerrilla army in Yemen's messy civil war look slim. Riyadh is working with the exiled government to train some Yemeni fighters, but creating a proxy army that could roll back the Houthis and then establish stability would be a long-term undertaking with only precarious chances of success. However, Saudi Arabia's continued bombing and insistence on implementation of 2216, which would in effect require surrender by the Houthis and Saleh, may be simply a precursor to talks, said the Gulf-based diplomat. Riyadh has acknowledged from the beginning that the Houthis will be part of any eventual political settlement, but wanted them to be a minor player rather than a dominant one and for Hadi's government to return to Sanaa. However, they may accept a deal that gives the exiled government some form of token return, alongside the Houthis, so long as the group's material links to Iran remain severed. "From Saudi Arabia's point of view, that would mean the situation in Yemen was better than before its air strikes began," the diplomat said. (Reporting By Angus McDowall, Editing by William Maclean and Crispian Balmer) #saparli Port Augusta power stations and Leigh Creek coal mine expected to

More fighting, air strikes in Yemen, civilian death toll exceeds 550

Fri, Apr 24 18:42 PM EDT image 1 of 3 By Mohammed Mukhashaf ADEN (Reuters) - Fighting between Yemen's warring factions raged in southern and central parts of the country and air strikes hit Houthi militia forces in Aden on Friday, but there were no fresh moves toward dialogue. Saudi Arabia says it is winding down its month-old bombing operation against the Iran-allied Houthis and forces loyal to Yemen's former president. But Riyadh pounded targets with at least 20 airstrikes across Yemen on Thursday and 10 more on Friday. The civilian death toll from the fighting and airstrikes since the bombing started on March 26 has reached an estimated 551 people, the United Nations said on Friday. Its children's agency UNICEF said at least 115 children were among the dead. Washington and other Western countries backing the Saudi-led aerial campaign have grown increasingly worried about the humanitarian crisis on the ground and also about the risk of Sunni Muslim jihadist groups taking advantage of the chaos. Islamic State, which has had little presence in Yemen, released late on Thursday a video it said showed members of the group in the country conducting military exercises and pledging to attack the Houthis, who are from the Zaydi Shi'ite sect. Saudi Arabia has called a meeting with major U.N. aid agencies and others to discuss improving aid deliveries to Yemen, which have been hindered by the naval blockade, Saudi officials and U.N. sources said. Violent clashes continued between the Houthis and local militias near the Khor Maksar district of Aden on Friday, residents said, as well as in Taiz and al-Dhala. Heavy fighting in Marib province east of the Yemeni capital Sanaa killed 15 people, tribal sources there said, as the Houthi militia and forces loyal to former president Ali Abdullah Saleh tried to advance into the rugged Sirwah district. AIR STRIKES Renewed airstrikes, days after Riyadh announced the end of its main bombing campaign, hit the 35th Brigade in Taiz, a Yemen army unit loyal to Saleh whose troops have clashed this week with militiamen supporting President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi. Four weeks of air raids have had limited impact on the lightly armed and mobile Houthi guerrilla fighters, but have significantly degraded army units loyal to Saleh, Western diplomats say. Splitting the alliance between the Houthis and Saleh is seen as pivotal to any chance of success for the Saudi-led coalition in its goal of pushing the militia back towards its northern heartland, resuming peace talks and restoring Hadi to Sanaa. Several army units have announced in recent days that they were pledging their loyalty to Hadi after fighting alongside Saleh or sitting on the sidelines. But those switches do not yet appear to have swung the balance of fighting on the ground. Separately, a spokesman for Defence Minister Mahmoud al-Subaihi rejected on Friday as untrue local media reports that the Houthis had released him after weeks of detention. (Additional reporting by Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva and Mohammed Ghobari in Cairo. Writing by Angus McDowall; Editing by Gareth Jones)