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Tuesday, October 22, 2013

E&P Projects & Future Plans

Thanks for finding this aktierman. I find Session 2 equally if not more significant. Session 2 includes the following discussion items • Accelerating the Kurdistan Oil & Gas Plan 2015 – 2019 • Exploring the potential of oil and gas reserves in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq • Responding to the market supply and demand dynamics • Boosting development projects in the Region • Remaining milestones to further expand business in the Region • Enhancing Kurdistan’s output and examining the challenges facing development Interesting that GKP does not feature in the session yet Shaikan should be the single largest contributor to production growth during this period. Oil company participants are Chevron, Genel and DNO. Is this recognition that GKP cannot accelerate the plan in the 2015 – 2019 time frame without help from the likes of Chevron? The KRG plan calls for a production increase from 1 mmbbl/d to 2 mmbbl/d between 2015 - 2019. Chevron has the Sarta, Rovi (adjacent Shaikan block) and Qara Dargh licences. It has not yet made a discovery although the Sarta Central A1 drilled and tested in 2010-11 by Reliance did produce 1000 bopd. With its acreage only in the very early stages of exploration and not yet demonstrating that it can contribute significantly to forward why does Chevron earn a place at the table for this session? What can it offer, or what has it offered, the KRG towards accelerating the plan? Perhaps this is when we may hear more details from the KRG of Chevron's involvement with the heavy oil pipeline dedicated to the Shaikan/SA/Akri Bijeel area and the extent of this line. PS “Todd F Kozel, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd” Hope he doesn’t wear this badge at the conference. It would be a bit misleading would it not? Regards, Gramacho ============= Session 3 E&P Projects & Future Plans ———————————————————————————————————————– Outstanding drilling successes and the major discoveries this year Exploration plans underway; reviewing the development of current plans Identifying project opportunities for EPC contracts and contract models Attracting investment across the oil and gas value chain Assessing new opportunities for investment in the provinces Outlining the role of the foreign oil and gas companies in supporting job creation What potential partnerships are on the horizon? Chairman Opening Remarks: Nadhim Zahawi, MP, UK Parliament Todd F Kozel, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd Tom Schmitt, Senior Vice President of Kurdistan Development, Hunt Oil Company David D Kennedy, Regional Managing Director, Afren Africa Middle East North Africa, Ltd. Baz Karim, President, KAR Group David Cook, Executive Officer & Head of Oil & Gas, TAQA http://www.cwckiog.com/conference/day-2/ Hmmm...Todd Kozel is going to talk about potential partnerships....! Should be interesting.....! ========================== Re: 17500 bopd for 2013 (average)->No... GKP.L 81 I have just re-watched Ewen’s presentation from the Investor day and especially the section from about 2 mins 55 seconds in for the following 2 minutes or so. In it, EA actually refers to his projection of an “annualised average of 8500 barrels per day from Shaikan” explaining that this would be the average figure taken across the whole year. He then proceeds to describe how this will be achieved, citing 5000 bpd in July, 10000 bpd in August and increasing to the targeted 20000 bpd for PF-1 in October, in effect increasing production by 5000 bpd every month… and then carrying on the same way with PF-2. While his commentary is slightly inaccurate in places, for example in that he then anticipates 40000 bpd at the start of 2014 (should be 35000), it is very clear to me that GKP’s target is to add 5000 bpd of production each month until they to get to the proposed 40000 bpd for PF-1 and PF-2, and use the constantly increasing revenue stream to then continue to grow production at much the same rate thereafter. In essence, he was saying that production in H2 2013 was projected to be:- July: 5,000 bpd (ie 150,000 barrels produced) August: 10,000 bpd (i.e 300,000 barrels produced) September: 15,000 bpd (i.e 450,000 barrels produced October: 20,000 bpd (i.e. 600,000 barrels produced) November: 25,000 bpd (i.e 750,000 barrels produced) December: 30,000 bpd (i.e 900,000 barrels produced) The projected total for H2 2013 was therefore 3,150,000 barrels = 525,000 barrels per month = or about 17,000 barrels bpd… or, on an annualised basis, 8500 bpd. As Finance Director, EA would simply have provided ‘projected’ figures based on the information available to him at the time, and no doubt assuming the anticipated levels of production contained in the Shaikan FDP. Whether those projections have actually been met or there have been any operational delays or restrictions caused by the ongoing political saga, I have no idea. But I see absolutely no reason for anyone to doubt that the ‘plan’ was very reasonable, and clearly outlined by EA at the Investor day. To me, his figures make total sense. And yes, it would have been good from the point of view of investor reassurance for us to have seen an RNS by now detailing exactly how GKP is doing in respect of those projections. But it is perhaps worth noting that the Investor Day was on 4 July 2013 and we should be receiving the latest operational update together with the interim results on Thursday 19th September, not much more than 2 months later. Not really all that long to wait, I reckon, especially when you think how long it took to finally get rid of Excalibur! While I understand that DNO provide MONTHLY updates on their levels of production in Kurdistan, I am not so sure that the same applies across the board of Kurdish operators. So, I would be inclined to give GKP the benefit of the doubt, especially as they now have a large quota of NEDs to ensure that they adhere fully to industry standards, whatever they might be! How frequently, for example, does Genel update their shareholders on their production levels in Kurdistan? My impression is that their operational updates have never been particularly frequent, and I don’t believe there are too many people complaining. Anyway, Thursday’s update should certainly be very interesting in many ways, and I rather wonder if today’s rise was partly in anticipation of positive news. We will see. =================== Author scaramouche View Profile Add to favourites Ignore Date posted 2013-09-10 20:54 Subject JUSTICE ! Votes for this Posting Voted 167 times. Message Well, it has been a long time coming since that ‘Rejection of legal claims’ RNS first spoiled the festive season on 29 December 2010, knocking a swift 30% off the share price, as it fell from Christmas Eve’s close of 184.5p to 131p in a matter of minutes… and costing many ill-prepared or perhaps over-leveraged investors considerable sums of money. It is easy to forget quite how damaging or even crippling this court case has been for some of our former colleagues. Furthermore, in the 986 days that have followed that bombshell of an announcement, many of our fellow investors have ceased to hold GKP shares for all manner of reasons - whether financial pressures, persistent uncertainty, fear of an adverse CC result, disappointment with the failure of the share price to ever adequately reflect the fantastic assets discovered by TK and his team, or simply the passage of time with all the sad events that can happen in what amounts to nearly three years. So, the fact that this millstone has finally been removed is undoubtedly a huge relief to everyone, no matter how confident they may have felt throughout that the lawsuit was spurious and how much they believed (like I did), that Excalibur deserved to receive absolutely NOTHING for their efforts. My position has ALWAYS been that, if they had felt that they warranted a finder’s fee they should have accepted the original generous offer made to them or sued purely on the basis of that finder’s fee. The fact that they did neither, but subjected all long-term holders to nearly 3 years of misery and torment through a combination of selfishness and greed says everything to me. And the fact that Blackrobe, Platinum Partners, Lemos and indeed even Clifford Chance readily jumped on board, clearly eager to profit from what was in effect a form of blackmail targeted at our CEO, our company and its shareholders, tells me very clearly that unfettered Third Party Litigation Funding simply has no place in our system of Justice. I will therefore very much look forward to reading Justice Clarke’s full judgement when it becomes available to see whether he has any further comments on such matters. No, I do NOT share the views of those who see Rex Wempen and his brother as somehow warranting a “grudging form of respect”, or simply being guilty of “having thrown away a golden opportunity” and seeking to take their subsequent battle a little too far. Everyone faces disappointments or times in their lives when they may perceive themselves to have been victims of personal injustices. But few choose to follow up those disappointments by seeking extortionate amounts of redress which they know will seriously impact the lives of thousands of people they have never met. To put it in context, we should therefore remember that the Wempens and their 'accomplices' were making demands on our company amounting to up to £1 billion pounds or 30% of the assets which could have led to its total destruction. And this after having already turned their noses up at £1 million when GKP had been nothing more than a very small oil explorer operating on a shoestring budget! Because of them, many of us have been extremely seriously damaged by their actions, and I am pleased to see that, at long last, the boot is very firmly on the other foot. I make no apologies for saying this. Today, Justice Christopher Clarke delivered the verdict we were all hoping for and for that I am absolutely delighted.... but please don’t let us forget the pain and the trauma which all parties to the Excalibur cause have brought upon innocent bystanders like ourselves. Good to see then that Memery Crystal commented today “The Defendants will now seek to recoup their costs, firstly against the £18.5m currently deposited in Court by the Claimants and secondly, the balance, if any, from the Claimant’s third party litigation funders”. No let-up for Platinum and Lemos then since BlackRobe it appears have already fallen on the Excalibur sword. We will undoubtedly all be sleeping a little sounder tonight, but hopefully Rex and Eric, the TPL funders, and certain lawyers will still be tossing and turning, as they wonder what else might lie ahead. And hopefully, when the full force of LJC’s detailed judgement has been applied, Justice will not only have been done… but it will also be SEEN to have been done. AIMHO and please DYOR. GLA, scaramouche ===========================

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