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Saturday, March 09, 2013

1 week left for Excalibur to pay!

01-03-13 Re: 1 week left for Excalibur to pay! GKP.L 38 Remember the saying - "let he who is without sin cast the first stone". Well, the more I read this thread, and others similar to it, the more I wonder whether there are some here who will never acknowledge that they have ever done anything wrong or, heaven forbid, made any kind of mistake and had to deal with the unfortunate repercussions. Indeed, it rather looks to me like some will never take responsibility for ANY of their own actions - yet they expect others to take complete responsibility for everything they have ever been involved in. As I have said before, it is very apparent that TK has made some errors of judgement in involving himself with such a dodgy outfit as Excalibur, and his original legal advisers have presumably also made mistakes in failing to exercise the devils that the Wempens have proved subsequently to be.... before they had the chance to bring this apparently spurious case. But as many have said, TK is in that sense only guilty of an error of judgement or perhaps his legal advisers at the time were the guilty ones.Who can really be that sure, especially bearing in mind that several of the Board of Directors including the then Legal & Commercial Director, Iain Patrick, tendered their resignations on 24 July 2007 .... and Tony Peart (the person currently in possession of that title) was not appointed until some time in 2008. It is very apparent to me that GKP was undergoing some fairly fundamental changes in the period when Excalibur were promising much and failing to deliver anything at all, and it is quite possible that there was a failure by someone to ensure all the i's were dotted and t's crossed during that rather tumultuous period in GKP's history. I would therefore not be so quick to cast stones at anyone in particular without knowing precisely what was and was not done at the time. The fact that the apparently vexatious Wempens turned up nearly 3 years later making what appears to be a ludicrous claim against GKP could not easily have been predicted when GKP was nearly 18 months away from even commencing operations at Shaikan(spudded 27 April 2009); and to suggest otherwise is IMHO little more than a JUDGEMENT with the benefit of HINDSIGHT. Presumably, those who make such judgements have never made any mistakes in their lives caused by misplaced trust or lack of due diligence! Furthermore, as we now seem to believe that no-one in their right mind would ever have entered into a contract with someone as clearly unreliable or even downright dishonest as Rex W., perhaps one of TK's detractors would like to explain why it was that the following did do much the same and committed their stakeholders to many of the same problems that TK faced a few years ago... Blackrobe - entered into contract with Wempen and may have lost their stakeholders several million pounds in costs.... perhaps because they did not know about the damaging UBS email trail. Ditto... Platinum. Ditto... Lemos Ditto... anyone else who might have committed funds to assist the Wempens in their dubious cause. Clifford Chance - took on a case which, apart from the huge legal fees, may lead to much reputational damage, and question marks about the choice of actions by one of the partners. . And one final question - do those who constantly seek to pillory TK about his failings while failing to acknowledge his qualities always do the same level of 'due diligence' on other oil exploration companies in which they invest... or is it simply the case that if the SP goes down it is invariably deemed to be entirely the fault of their respective Boards of Directors? Something tells me that, rather like the Wempens, we may spot some 'trends' in their patterns of behaviour... if we were to choose to look a little more closely. AIMHO and please DYOR. GLA, scaramouche ========================= 20-02-13 Change of plan? GKP.L 102 From the December 2012 presentation http://www.gulfkeystone.com/uploads/gulfkeystonepetroleum--kurdistan-iraqog--3december2012.pdf On p.9 we saw that PF-2 would be linked to Shaikan-2, Shaikan-5 and Shaikan-6 and produce up to 20,000 barrels per day. But from today’s RNS: “Shaikan PF-1 will be followed by PF-2, also designed to produce 20,000 barrels of oil per day, in mid-2013. Shaikan PF-2 will be tied to the Shaikan-2 and -5 producing wells, as well as Shaikan-10.” So, SH-10 (which is yet to be spudded) – “The Company plans to spud Shaikan-10, the first development well, and Shaikan-7, the first deep exploration well, targeting the mid to lower Triassic and, potentially, Permian horizons, by the end of Q1 2013” takes the place of Shaikan-6 in the second production facility. Also, there appear to be no details of Shaikan-9, which is presumably another development well, and to my knowledge one that has never been referred to before. So, SH-9 and SH-10 are entirely new, and SH-6 now seems to be earmarked for something else. It therefore looks to me as though plans have changed quite considerably since the December 2012 presentation… most likely in accordance with the FDP which was on schedule to be submitted by the end of January 2013 according to GKP, and which several posters have confirmed that they had been told DID meet this particular deadline. IMHO, it therefore all looks like the path towards significant levels of production is now well and truly under way… impeded ONLY by the politics. AIMHO and please DYOR, GLA, scaramouche ================= 26-02-13 Re: And now.. Albrad & BS GKP.L 30 I wonder if people are slightly mis-reading the latest RNS regarding Todd’s options. This is how I see it, but maybe one of our expert American friends might also like to comment .... TK is exercising 3 million options available to him at a price of 30p, which will cost him £900k. Based on the share price yesterday, when the meeting was held, those 3 million shares would be worth say 3 million x 190p = £5.7 million. So, if sold at that time, they would have created a capital gain of about £4.8 million, on which I believe that high earners in the USA now pay 20% CGT. As a result, TK would need in theory need to find £900k cash to pay for the options and an estimated £960k to pay the likely tax liability at 190p, or £1.86 million in total. Assuming that he does not have the cash readily available that means that he would need to sell about 1 million shares to cover the entire cost. The RNS says that TK “INTENDS to sell 1 million shares… to meet the option exercise price and to discharge his tax liabilities arising from such exercise.” But it does not say by when this will happen. With the American tax year running from 1 January to 31 December 2013 (unlike that of the UK), I am unclear why it would be necessary to take action at this moment. But I assume that it is a form of risk mitigation or indeed risk elimination to guarantee that he is in a position to meet any tax requirements. Presumably, if the share price were to rise appreciably in the short term before the tax falls due, he would need to sell less than that number. But an estimate of 1 million shares neatly covers it even if the price falls to 187p (Perhaps he has been reading Jackozy and does not see any further downside beyond that, given possible news in the pipeline o Is it not therefore an RNS that simply confirms we may see some Director Sells from TK in the near future (who knows, perhaps there were even a few today), and should not be surprised or concerned if/when a confirmatory RNS arises? Of course, it is always possible we may not see one at all, if events conspire to move the SP significantly - but certainly, at the moment, there are no obvious signs of that. I certainly find it interesting that TK has chosen to exercise the options NOW though, and make a request for all 8 million shares to be released from the EBT, as well as that, as KKO has observed, there is no reference to ‘new’ share Awards. Does the change of status on those options and shares perhaps alter the 'rights' associated with them? I am sure there are others here who may be able to clarify this point. Anyway, hopefully, the BoD has listened to shareholder concerns and recognises at least to some degree the fact that we shoulder considerable risk to our capital without yet having seen quite so much by way of rewards. Personally, I would also like to hear an update on what is happening with Akri-Bijeel (PW were appointed ostensibly to oversee its sale just over one year ago), as it might allay most of the 'funding' fears for 2013 that I saw voiced on the board earlier today. AIMHO and please DYOR, GLA, scaramouche. ============== Escovido These awards, whether we like them or not, were decided on a long time ago as they are installments of 2010 and 2011 awards. The selling is minimal to use allowances and or pay tax so the most part I would think is completed by now. This is why they are not having much effect in that they are not a surprise to anyone. Onwards and upwards! =============== kitkatoil Yeah, wait till ILS and the boiler room crew get a hold of this! =============== Perhaps the reason we haven't heard from Mr. Passive-Aggressive is that this RNS has killed his plans for staging a revolt at next AGM... He got the RNS text like us all an hour ago. Wasn't previous share award 'housekeeping' usually combined in the same Board meeting and subsequent market RNS as new remuneration announcements? If so perhaps the BoD heard the message loud and clear last year and are not awarding themselves any new shares (though would be surprised if balance of Exit Awards 10M not touched) this year... Before the begrudgers come out of the woodwork to attack me instead, I repeat emphasis on:Maybe!! We'll find out soon enough. BWTFDIK=But What The Freak Do I Know?. I do find it interesting that he's vesting any (as time for tax planning is gone) but if what Blacksash just said is true, then perhaps that is a very good reason... My question is when did he sell? Last week's short interest spike? GLAll KKO PS: 3M times 30p is £1M (to add to Gram's figures!) and add CGT (£500K+) and income tax on the BIK and that's why he sold 1M... He's not exactly cash rich these days since Ashley took most of it. ============ Iraq Energy Projects is the most important event for people serious about capitalising on Iraq's energy sector, detailing first hand project opportunities across the oil and gas, chemical, power and water sector. 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Register today and start building the crucial relationships you need to achieve your business strategy in Iraq. I look forward to hearing from you shortly. Regards, Edmund O'Sullivan Chairman, MEED Events ============== Talisman Talisman also has properties in Algeria, Sierra Leone and the Iraqi semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan. Kvisle said Kurdistan is particularly promising, and the company will look to prove up its interests there in the near-term before exploring any divestment or joint-venture options. “Kurdistan is one of the most exciting oil structures that I’ve seen in my career. We’re very enthused about the next couple of wells that we’re drilling there,” he said. http://www.news1130.com/2013/03/06/talisman-energy-to-cut-capital-budget-by-25-per-cent-work-on-more-asset-sales ============= Jaafari's office: an agreement between the national and Kurdistan on a legal formula for payments to the oil companies contracting with Kurdistan Date: 22/02/2013 07:39:20 Friday if it was signed and sealed then I'd expect the likes of Genel to spike up first on high volume. They will be the ones to benefit from any major agreements as they appear to be the only ones allowed to produce for now. Strangely enough - Genel is near 6 months lows lol! Not exactly reflecting iraqi progress or the stock market rally in 2013. We've had words and garibaldie meetings for the last 5 years. Hub =========== Hi Spidy, my view fwiw would be to crank it up after final submissions at the start of march. If Mr Pickens referenced Hub during expert witness examination, perhaps he will slip in a calc or two based on your NAV calculator. But then again, if you added a box where you could calculate 30% of faak-all in 2007, plus a -'ve balance sheet figure to show how much Excalibur should have paid GKP back then for their share of costs, then perhaps it would be worthwhile. Not an expert on this - but I would think that 'Excalibur's final submissions' that are to be submitted to the court next week - are 'final submissions' based on evidence that has 'ALREADY BEEN SUBMITTED TO THE COURT' - and nothing else ! victor 384 =======

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