Bomb kills Assad army chiefs; "decisive" Damascus battle

Wed, Jul 18 17:42 PM EDT 1 of 23 By Dominic Evans and Khaled Yacoub Oweis BEIRUT/AMMAN (Reuters) - A bomber killed three of Bashar al-Assad's top military officials on Wednesday - including his powerful brother-in-law - in a devastating blow to the Syrian leader's inner circle as rebels closed in, vowing to "liberate" the capital. Assad's brother-in-law, Assef Shawkat, was one of the principal figures in the tight, clan-based ruling elite that has been battling to put down a 16-month rebellion against four decades of rule by Assad and his father. The defense minister and a senior general were also killed and two other top security officials wounded in the attack on a crisis meeting of Assad's closest security aides that took place as battles raged within sight of the nearby presidential palace. Late into the night on Wednesday there was no sign of a letup in fighting in the capital, the worst since the uprising began, a resident reached by telephone said. Intense clashes were reported in the central districts of Mezze and Kafar Souseh, while a police station in the Hajar al-Aswad district was in flames. Army artillery was shelling the capital from the surrounding mountains as night fell. A security source said the bomber who struck inside the security headquarters was a bodyguard entrusted with protecting the closest members of Assad's circle. State television said it was a suicide bomb. Anti-Assad groups claimed responsibility. The government vowed to retaliate, and residents said army helicopters fired machineguns and in some cases rockets at several residential districts. Television footage showed rebels storming a security base in southern Damascus. Assad's own whereabouts were a mystery - he did not appear in public or make a statement in the hours after the attack, though security sources said he was not present when the bomb exploded. The White House said it did not know where he was. Diplomacy moved into overdrive as countries spoke of the conflict entering a decisive phase. Washington, which fears a spillover into neighboring states, said the situation seemed to be spinning out of control. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said "the decisive fight" was under way in Damascus. The U.N. Security Council put off a scheduled vote on a Syria resolution. U.S. President Barack Obama spoke with Russia's Vladimir Putin, Assad's main world power protector. Syrian Information Minister Omran Zoabi also called the fight in the capital "the decisive battle in all of Syria", blaming Western and Arab governments for the bloodshed. "TERRORIST BOMBING" State television said Shawkat and Defense Minister Daoud Rajha had been killed in a "terrorist bombing" and pledged to wipe out the "criminal gangs" responsible. It later said General Hassan Turkmani, a former defense minister and senior military official, had died of his wounds, while Intelligence chief Hisham Bekhtyar and Interior Minister Mohammad Ibrahim al-Shaar were wounded but "stable". The men form the core of a military crisis unit led by Assad to take charge of crushing the revolt, which grew out of popular protests inspired by Arab Spring uprisings that unseated leaders in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. Windows on the third floor of the national security building were shattered, a resident at the scene told Reuters. The armed forces chief of staff, Fahad Jassim al-Freij, quickly took over as defense minister to avoid giving any impression of official paralysis. "This cowardly terrorist act will not deter our men in the armed forces from continuing their sacred mission of pursuing the remnants of these armed terrorist criminal gangs," Freij said on state television. "They will cut off every hand that tries to hurt the security of the nation or its citizens." The explosion appeared to be part of a coordinated assault on the fourth day of fighting in the capital that rebel fighters have called the "liberation of Damascus" after months of clashes which activists say have killed more than 17,000 people. It began early on Wednesday with fighting around an army barracks in the district of Dummar, hundreds of meters from the presidential palace, and was followed by blasts close to the base of the = CORE OF CRISIS UNIT KILLED The generals killed and wounded in Wednesday's bombing form the core of Assad's crisis unit to crush the revolt, which grew out of protests inspired by Arab Spring uprisings that unseated leaders in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. The armed forces chief of staff, Fahad Jassim al-Freij, quickly took over as defense minister on Wednesday to avoid giving any impression of official paralysis. "This cowardly terrorist act will not deter our men in the armed forces from continuing their sacred mission of pursuing the remnants of these armed terrorist criminal gangs," Freij said on state television. "They will cut off every hand that tries to hurt the security of the nation or its citizens." The explosion appeared to be part of a coordinated assault on the capital that has escalated since the start of the week. Rebel fighters call it the "liberation of Damascus" after months of clashes which activists say have killed 17,000 people. "This is the final phase. They will fall very soon," Abdelbasset Seida, a leader of the opposition Syrian National Council, told Reuters in Qatar. "Today is a turning point in Syria's history. It will put more pressure on the regime and bring an end very soon, within weeks or months." U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said: "This is a situation that is rapidly spinning out of control." He called for maximum global pressure on Assad to step down. FEAR OF DESTABILISATION Western leaders fear the conflict, which has been joined by al Qaeda-style jihadists, could destabilize Syria's neighbors: Israel, Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Jordan. Syrian forces hit rebel positions across the capital after the attack on the security meeting, with activists saying government troops and pro-government militia were flooding in. State television broadcast footage it said was filmed on Wednesday showing men in blue army fatigues ducking for cover and firing - the first time official media has shown clashes in the heart of the capital. Government troops used heavy machineguns and anti-aircraft guns against rebels in residential neighborhoods, armed mostly with small arms and rocket-propelled grenades. Rebels were jubilant at their success in penetrating into the capital and at the deaths of the security chiefs. Abdullah al-Shami, a rebel commander based in Turkey, said: "I expect a speedy collapse of the regime ... and it means we will not be in need of outside intervention, with the regime beginning to crumble much faster than we envisaged." Yet some opposition figures said victory would still not be easy. "It is going to be difficult to sustain supply lines and the rebels may have to make a tactical withdrawal at one point, like they did in other cities," veteran opposition activist Fawaz Tello said from Istanbul. "But what is clear is that Damascus has joined the revolt." (Additional reporting by Dominic Evans and Erika Solomon in Beirut, Khaled Yacoub Oweis in Amman, Suleiman Al-Khalidi in Antakya, Turkey and Regan Doherty in Doha; Writing by Peter Graff; Editing by Louise Ireland) === Syrian forces stretched, spy chief fourth bomb victim Fri, Jul 20 14:37 PM EDT 1 of 14 By Oliver Holmes BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syrian troops fought on the corpse-strewn streets of the capital and at far-flung border posts on Friday to reverse gains by rebels, who have advanced relentlessly in the 48 hours since much of President Bashar al-Assad's entourage was assassinated. Assad's intelligence chief died on Friday of wounds sustained in Wednesday's bomb attack, becoming the fourth member of his narrow circle of kin and lieutenants to be killed by a blast that has transformed the 16-month conflict. Since then, rebels have pushed deep into the heart of the capital and seized control of other towns. On Thursday, they captured three border crossings with Iraq and Turkey, the first time they have held sway over Syria's frontiers. Assad has failed to speak in public since Wednesday, adding to the sense that one of the most strategically important countries in the Middle East is being torn from the grasp of his family, which has ruled it as a personal fiefdom for more than four decades. The next few days will be critical in determining whether Assad's government can recover from the bombing, which wiped out much of his command structure in a single blow and destroyed his clan's aura of invulnerability. Regional and world powers are now bracing for the last phase of the conflict, hoping to shoehorn Assad out of power without unleashing a sectarian war that could spill across borders in one of the most volatile parts of the world. A Western diplomat said it was understood that the Syrian leader had phoned the head of a U.N. observer mission after Wednesday's blast, saying he would accept an international peace plan if the West forced the opposition to halt attacks. The mission head, General Robert Mood, was not available to comment. Diplomacy has failed to keep pace with events. A day after Moscow and Beijing vetoed a U.N. resolution that would have allowed sanctions, the Security Council approved a 30-day extension of Mood's small, unarmed mission, the only outside military presence on the ground. In at least one apparent success for Assad's forces, state television said troops had cleared the central Damascus district of Midan of "mercenaries and terrorists". It aired footage of dead men in t-shirts, some covered in blood, others burned. Opposition activists and rebel sources confirmed on Friday that they had withdrawn from that district after coming under heavy bombardment, but said they were advancing elsewhere. "It is a tactical withdrawal. We are still in Damascus," Abu Omar, a rebel commander, said by telephone. One resident of a Palestinian refugee camp in the south of the city said the area nearby had a stench of corpses. He said: "Tens of cars are burned, I saw at least eight bodies in the streets and people are trying to cover them with blankets. There is a stench (of bodies)." Assad's forces also tried to recapture the Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Syria and shelled the Abu Kamal crossing with Iraq on the Euphrates River highway, among the most important trade routes in the Middle East. The rebels said they still held the crossings, which they captured on Thursday. A Reuters photographer at the scene said Iraqi forces had sealed off their side of the checkpoint with concrete walls. The Syrian side had been burned and looted and a senior Iraqi interior ministry official said it appeared to be in rebel hands. Iraqi officers said it was quiet after clashes overnight. The surge in violence has trapped millions of Syrians, turned sections of the capital into ghost towns, and sent tens of thousands of refugees fleeing to neighboring Lebanon. The U.N. refugee agency said it had heard banks had run out of cash. FUNERAL State television said a funeral ceremony was held on Friday for Assad's brother-in-law Assef Shawkat - one of the most powerful men in his circle - as well as for Defense Minister Daoud Rajha and for another senior general killed in Wednesday's bombing. Intelligence chief Hisham Bekhtyar also died on Friday of wounds sustained in the blast - the interior minister is still recovering from the attack, which hit a meeting of Assad's closest security advisors inside an intelligence headquarters building in Damascus. State television did not say whether Assad had attended Friday's funeral at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier on a mountain overlooking Damascus. Al-Manar television, owned by Lebanon's Hezbollah Shi'ite militia which is closely allied to the Assads, said Bashar's younger brother Maher attended, but he was not visible in pictures of the event released by the government. The rebels, who struggled for months against government assaults on their strongholds across Syria, appear to favour small, high impact attacks in the capital, with residents reporting blasts near the landmark Assad Library. Rebels torched and looted the Damascus Province Police headquarters on Thursday in the centre of the old town. A witness said ============ Army retakes Damascus Sayyida Zainab LAST UPDATE Sat, 21 Jul 2012 08:28:29 GMT Syrian troops have regained control of most parts of the Damascus neighborhood of Sayyida Zainab after government forces launched an all-out offensive against the armed rebels in the capital, Press TV reports. Syrian security forces dealt heavy blows to anti-government rebels who rushed to areas close to the Sayyida Zainab neighborhood after coming under attack in various parts of the capital. Troops are fighting with the militants now to completely clear the mainly Shia Muslim neighborhood of the rebels. About 5,000 Shia Muslims, including those who have fled violence in other part of the capital, are living in the neighborhood. The youths in the region, armed with sticks and knives, have formed committees to protect the holy shrine of Sayyida Zainab, the daughter of Imam Ali (PBUH), and the neighboring areas. Several members of the committees have been martyred or injured in different clashes with armed rebels. The rebels have killed a number of Shia residents of the area or expelled them from their homes several times. Reports say the armed groups have also denied food and water supplies to the region on the eve of the holy month of Ramadan. Syrian troops also succeeded to retake the control of the Imam Khomeini Hospital in Damascus which was for a while under armed rebels’ control. Fierce clashes between government forces and the rebels are being reported in other areas including Jubar, Mazzeh and Kfar Sousa. Troops on Friday recaptured the key southern neighborhood of al-Midan during an operation aimed at clearing the city of the rebels. Security sources say the army is now also in control of Tadamon, Qaboon and Barzeh neighborhoods. The major offensive against the armed groups comes a few days after a terrorist bomb blast left defense minister Dawood Rajha and several other high-ranking officials dead. Syria has been experiencing unrest since March 2011, with demonstrations being held both against and in support of President Bashar al-Assad's government. The Syrian government says outlaws, saboteurs, and armed terrorists are the driving factor behind the unrest and deadly violence while the opposition accuses the security forces of being behind the killings. ================ 'NATO wants Syrian nation destroyed' Sat, 21 Jul 2012 13:57:47 GMT An American author and historian says NATO is seeking to destroy the “modern Syrian nation” and create “subdivision” in the country, Press TV reports. “NATO’s goal is nothing less than the destruction of the modern Syrian nation, followed by chaos, partition, subdivision, warlords, Balkanization, and a failed state,” Dr. Webster Griffin Tarpley wrote in an article published on Press TV Website on Saturday. Tarpley’s remarks come a few days after a bomb attack on the headquarters of the National Security Bureau in the Syrian capital, Damascus, killed Syrian Defense Minister Dawoud Rajiha, Deputy Defense Minister Assef Shawkat, and Assistant Vice President Hassan Turkmani on July 18. On July 20, National Security Bureau chief Hisham Bakhtiar also died of wounds sustained in the bomb attack. Syrian Interior Minister Mohammad Ibrahim al-Sha’ar was injured in the Damascus bombing. “It must… be added that the nature of this attack remains unclear, and it would be very unwise to draw conclusions about an infiltrated… bomber or other hypotheses emanating from the NATO brainwash apparatus,” Tarpley commented in his article. “In the abstract, the capabilities shown in this attack could range anywhere from a cruise missile or drone to the capabilities deployed in the assassination of (Prime Minister) Rafiq Hariri of Lebanon.” The American author also pointed out that to the “acute disappointment of the NATO mindbenders, the Syrian state did not collapse starting on July 18, and has continued to demonstrate robust capabilities for self-defense.” The bomb attack in Damascus was carried out on the same day when the UN Security Council was scheduled to meet and vote on a Western-backed draft resolution that proposed sanctions against Damascus under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, which allows for sanctions ranging from economic measures to an arms embargo and could also authorize the use of military force if necessary. However, UN diplomats said after the bombing that the meeting was postponed to July 19, when Russia and China vetoed the Western-backed resolution against Syria. Russian Ambassador to the UN Vitaly Churkin said after the Security Council meeting, “We simply cannot accept a document under Chapter 7, one which would open the path for the pressure of sanctions and further to external military involvement in Syrian domestic affairs.” ============ Syria says could use chemical arms against foreign intervention inShare5Share this Email Print Related NewsIraqi PM orders all borders open to Syria refugees: Iraqi general 10:59am EDT Putin says Syria crisis must be resolved through compromise 10:57am EDT Italy urges Russia to help end Syria crisis 11:07am EDT UN's Ban voices concern on Syria chemical weapons 12:40pm EDT Europe tightens arms embargo against Syria 12:44pm EDTRelated TopicsWorld » Syria » Related VideoFighting appears to rage in Syria's Aleppo 9:41am EDTSyrians flee across Lebanese border The battle for control in Syria 1 of 11. A damaged tank is seen in the suburb of Erbeen in Damascus July 22, 2012. Logo at top right reads, ''Witness of the event''. Credit: Reuters/Shaam News Network/Handout By Erika Solomon and Mariam Karouny BEIRUT | Mon Jul 23, 2012 12:44pm EDT BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syria acknowledged for the first time on Monday that it had chemical and biological weapons, saying they could be used if the country faced foreign intervention. International pressure on President Bashar al-Assad has escalated dramatically in the last week with a rebel offensive in the two biggest cities and a bomb attack which killed four members of his inner circle in Damascus. Defying Arab foreign ministers who on Sunday offered the Assad a "safe exit" if he stepped down, the Syrian leader has launched fierce counter-offensives, reflecting his determination to hold on to power. Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi said the army would not use chemical weapons to crush rebels but they could be used against forces from outside the country. "Any chemical or bacterial weapons will never be used ... during the crisis in Syria regardless of the developments," Makdissi said. "These weapons are stored and secured by Syrian military forces and under its direct supervision and will never be used unless Syria faces external aggression." Damascus has not signed a 1992 international convention that bans the use, production or stockpiling of chemical weapons, but officials in the past have denied that it had any stockpiles. As violence escalates in Syria, insurgents have said they fear Assad's forces will resort to non-conventional weapons as they seek to claw back rebel gains across the country. Western and Israeli countries have also expressed fears that chemical weapons could fall into the hands of militant groups as Assad's authority erodes. Arab League ministers meeting in Doha urged the opposition and the rebel Free Syrian Army to form a transitional government, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani told a news conference in Doha. Makdissi condemned calls for Assad to step down at a meeting of Arab foreign ministers in Qatar over the weekend, calling it a "flagrant intervention" in Syria's internal affairs. "We regret that the Arab League stooped to this immoral level in dealing with a founding member instead of helping Syria," he said. On Monday the army shelled rebel forces in the northern city of Aleppo and stormed the southern Damascus neighborhood of Nahr Aisha, breaking into shops and houses and burning some of them, activists said. Video showed dozens of men in green army fatigues massing in the neighborhood, which looked completely abandoned. Men carrying machine guns and rocket-propelled grenade launchers knocked and then kicked down doors and climbed through windows. Assad's forces have reasserted control over several Damascus areas since they seized back the central Midan district on Friday, following a devastating bomb attack that killed four of Assad's top security officials. "The regime strategy is to continue to confront the opposition, this time with much broader military response," said Ayham Kamel, Middle East analyst at Eurasia Group consultancy. "The expectation that the regime is out of firepower or collapsing right now is misplaced." But Assad's forces have lost ground outside cities, ceding control of four border posts on the Turkish and Iraqi borders. Rebels also seized an army infantry school in the town of Musalmiyeh, 16 km (10 miles) north of Aleppo, and captured several loyalist officers, while others defected, a senior military defector in Turkey and rebel sources inside Syria said. In Aleppo, activists said residents were fleeing the rebel-held districts of Al-Haideriya, Hanano and Sakhour after army shelling and clashes between rebels and government forces. A rebel fighter said the rebels had destroyed three tanks in the Hanano district and predicted weeks of fighting in Syria's largest city. "The regime is fighting for its survival. God willing by the end of Ramadan, Aleppo will be in our hands," Mustafa Mohammad said referring to the Muslim holy month which started on Friday. REVENGE The fighting in Damascus, Aleppo and the eastern city of Deir al-Zor has been some of the fiercest yet and showed Assad's determination to avenge the bomb attack, the most spectacular blow in a 16-month-old uprising against four decades of rule by the Assad family. Rebels were driven from Mezzeh, the diplomatic district of Damascus on Sunday, residents and opposition activists said, and over 1,000 government troops and allied militiamen poured into the area, backed by armored vehicles, tanks and bulldozers. Government forces executed at least 20 men, aged approximately 20 to 30, activists said by phone from Mezzeh. "Most had bullet holes, one with as many as 18. Three had their hands tied behind their back. Some of the men were in their pajamas. Several had their legs broken or fingers missing. Others were stabbed with knifes," said Bashir al-Kheir, one of the activists. Opposition and rebel sources say the guerrilla fighters in the capital may lack the supply lines to remain there for long and may have to make tactical withdrawals. The neighborhood of Barzeh, one of three northern areas hit by helicopter fire, was overrun by troops commanded by President Assad's brother, Maher al-Assad, 41, who is widely seen as the muscle maintaining the Assad family's Alawite minority rule. CRUCIAL ROLE Maher's role has become more crucial since Assad's defense and intelligence ministers, a top general and his powerful brother-in-law were killed by the bomb on Wednesday, part of an assault by rebels seeking to turn the tables in a revolt inspired by Arab Spring uprisings in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. Assad has not spoken in public since the bombing, but the Israeli military said it believed he was still in Damascus and retained the loyalty of his armed forces. The unrest in Damascus prevented many officials getting to work last week but on Monday most government employees were back at their desks, one employee said. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 1,261 people had been killed across Syria since last Sunday, when the fighting escalated in Damascus, including 299 of Assad's forces. This made it by far the bloodiest week in an uprising that has claimed the lives of 18,000 people. A total of 140 people were killed on Sunday, including 38 soldiers, the observatory said. Regional and Western powers fear the conflict might become a full-blown sectarian war that could spill across borders, but have yet to find a coherent strategy to prevent this. (Additional reporting by Suleiman al-Khalidi in Antakya, Dominic Evans in Beirut; editing by Samia Nakhoul and Anna Willard) == بسمِ ربِ الشہداء اللَّهُمَّ صَلِّ عَلَى مُحَمَّدٍ وآلِ مُحَمَّدٍ وعَجِّلْ فَرَجَهُمْ Mashriq-e-Wusta Mein Jadeed Tareen Soorat-e-Haal Description: Political Analysis Speech discussing the latest developments in Syria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt & Bahrain. What will happen if the Syrian Regime wins or loses the ongoing battle? What impact will it have on Hezbollah & Iran? Syed Jawad Naqvi Speech held on 24th July 2012 http://islamimarkaz.com/user_selected_top_lec.asp?id=495 شام کا بحران، اب تک کے کھیل میں کون جیتا کون ہارا؟ اسلام ٹائمز: امریکہ اور اسرائیل کی جانب سے تمام تر گیدڑ بھبکیوں اور شور شرابے کے باوجود شام کے مسائل سے آگاہ تجزیہ نگاروں کی نظر میں مغرب کی جانب سے شام کے خلاف کسی قسم کی فوجی کارروائی کا کوئی امکان نظر نہیں آتا۔ شام کے دو بڑے اور اہم شہروں دمشق اور حلب میں بدامنی کی نئی لہر وجود میں آنے اور شامی فوج کی جانب سے کچھ حد تک ان دو شہروں کا کنٹرول واپس لینے کے بعد اب یہ سوال ابھر کر سامنے آتا ہے کہ اب تک کے اس کھیل میں کون جیتا ہے؟۔ اس سوال کے جواب کیلئے درج ذیل نکات کی جانب توجہ ضروری ہے۔ شام کے دو بڑے اور اہم شہروں دمشق اور حلب میں بدامنی کی نئی لہر وجود میں آنے اور شامی فوج کی جانب سے کچھ حد تک ان دو شہروں کا کنٹرول واپس لینے کے بعد اب یہ سوال ابھر کر سامنے آتا ہے کہ اب تک کے اس کھیل میں کون جیتا ہے؟۔ اس سوال کے جواب کیلئے درج ذیل نکات کی جانب توجہ ضروری ہے۔ 1۔ اب تک یہ واضح ہو چکا ہے کہ شام کے حکومت مخالف گروہ اور انکے حامی ممالک میدان جنگ میں شام کی فوج اور سکیورٹی فورسز کو شکست دینے پر قادر نہیں۔ اب تک جتنی بار بھی فوج اور حکومت مخالف مسلح گروپس میں جھڑپ ہوئی ہے، فوج کو فتح نصیب ہوئی ہے۔ سب سے اہم بات یہ ہے کہ ابھی تک شام کے حکومت مخالف گروہ عوام کی حمایت حاصل کرنے اور اپنی تحریک کو عوامی رنگ دینے میں بری طرح ناکامی کا شکار ہوئے ہیں۔ اگر انتہائی بدبینی سے صورتحال کا جائزہ لیا جائے تو کہا جا سکتا ہے کہ شام کے عوام خاموشی سے اس بات کا انتظار کر رہے ہیں کہ دیکھیں آخرکار کون فاتح میدان کے طور پر سامنے آتا ہے؟۔ دمشق اس وقت مکمل طور پر پرامن ہے اور حلب جس کے بارے میں حکومت مخالف مسلح گروپس نے اعلان کیا تھا کہ وہ اپنی پوری قوت کے ساتھ اس پر قبضہ کرنے کی کوشش کر رہے ہیں، کی صورتحال بھی تیزی سے بہتر ہو رہی ہے۔ 2۔ شام کی فوج نت نئے طریقے آزما رہی ہے۔ شام کے حکومت مخالف گروہوں کی جانب سے مسلح کارروائیاں شروع ہو جانے اور انکی دہشت گردانہ نوعیت کے واضح ہو جانے کے بعد شامی فوج کو بھی جوابی کارروائی کرنے میں زیادہ آزادی مل گئی ہے۔ شام کی حکومت نے بھی اپنی تمام تر توجہ اندرونی مسائل پر مرکوز کرنے کی پالیسی کو تبدیل کرتے ہوئے مسلح گروہوں کے حامی ممالک کی سرحدیں ناامن کرنے کے منصوبے پر عمل کرنے کا فیصلہ کر لیا ہے۔ شام کی جانب سے اپنے کیمیائی ہتھیار اور میزائل سسٹم کی پوزیشن کو تبدیل کرنا اور جولان میں مقبوضہ فلسطین کے ساتھ شام کے سرحدی علاقوں میں راکٹس کا فائر ہونا، اس اسٹریٹجک تبدیلی کی ابتدائی علامات تصور کی جاتی ہیں۔ 3۔ اس وقت مغربی ممالک کیلئے یہ حقیقت واضح ہو چکی ہے کہ شام کے مسئلے کا سیاسی حل تلاش کئے بغیر صرف اور صرف فوجی طریقے سے اسے حل کرنے کی کوششوں کا کوئی فائدہ نہیں۔ اور اگر حتی صدر بشار الاسد بھی حکومت سے علیحدہ ہو جائیں، جس کا امکان روز بروز کمزور ہوتا جا رہا ہے، پھر بھی زیادہ سے زیادہ یہ ہوگا کہ حکومت اور اپوزیشن کی جگہ تبدیل ہو جائے گی اور اس بار علویون جو شام میں انتہائی منظم اور طاقتور گروہ سمجھا جاتا ہے، سنی حکومت کے مقابلے میں اپوزیشن کے طور پر ابھر کر سامنے آئیں گے۔ لہذا اب یہ بات سب پر واضح ہوچکی ہے کہ شام کے مسئلے کا ایسا سیاسی حل تلاش کرنے کی ضرورت ہے، جس پر تمام گروپس متفق ہوں۔ ایسے وقت جب اقوام متحدہ کے سابق سیکرٹری جنرل جناب کوفی عنان کی جانب سے پیش کردہ منصوبہ بھی شکست سے دوچار ہوتا ہوا دکھائی دے رہا ہے۔ یقیناً شام کے بارے میں ایک کامیاب سیاسی حل مغرب کی جانب سے سامنے آنا ناممکن نظر آ رہا ہے۔ 4۔ ابھی سے شام کے حکومت مخالف گروپس کی جانب سے حکومت کے ساتھ مذاکرات کی خواہش کی علامات قابل مشاہدہ ہیں۔ حتی شام کی دہشت گرد تنظیم لبریشن آرمی نے بھی اعلان کیا ہے کہ وہ صدر بشار الاسد کے نائب کی سربراہی میں موجودہ حکومت کے تسلسل کو قبول کرنے پر راضی ہیں۔ بعض رپورٹس ظاہر کرتی ہیں کہ امریکی حکام نے صدر بشار الاسد کے انتہائی قریبی افراد سے رابطہ بھی کیا ہے، جس میں یمن جیسے ماڈل کو شام میں اجراء کرنے پر رضامندی ظاہر کی گئی ہے، جسکے مطابق صدر اپنے عہدے سے دستبردار ہو جاتا ہے اور اسکی کابینہ جوں کی توں رہتی ہے۔ اگرچہ امریکی حکام کی جانب سے کئے گئے یہ تمام رابطے بے نتیجہ ثابت ہوئے ہیں اور صدر بشار الاسد کے قریبی ساتھیوں نے انتہائی دوٹوک انداز میں انکی قانونی حکومت کے تسلسل پر زور دیا ہے، لیکن خود امریکہ اور شام کے حکومت مخالف دھڑوں کی جانب سے مذاکراتی رویہ اپنانے سے معلوم ہوتا ہے کہ انہیں جنگ کی میدان میں بہت محدود پیشرفت حاصل ہوئی ہے۔ 5۔ امریکہ اور اسرائیل کی جانب سے تمام تر گیدڑ بھبکیوں اور شور شرابے کے باوجود شام کے مسائل سے آگاہ تجزیہ نگاروں کی نظر میں مغرب کی جانب سے شام کے خلاف کسی قسم کی فوجی کارروائی کا کوئی امکان نظر نہیں آتا۔ اسکی بنیادی وجہ یہ ہے کہ امریکی حکام اچھی طرح جانتے ہیں کہ صدارتی انتخابات کے نزدیک کوئی نئی فوجی مہم شروع کرنے سے صدر اوباما کی محبوبیت میں شدید کمی آ سکتی ہے، کیونکہ امریکی عوام اس وقت حکومت سے یہ مطالبہ کر رہے ہیں کہ وہ دوسرے ممالک میں مداخلت کو ختم کر کے ملک کے اندرونی مسائل کی جانب توجہ دے۔ صہیونیستی حکام بھی اگرچہ اس بات کا کھلم کھلا اظہار نہیں کرتے، لیکن اپنی انٹیلی جنس رپورٹس کی روشنی میں وہ اس قطعی نتیجے پر پہنچ چکے ہیں کہ شام کے خلاف کسی قسم کی فوجی کارروائی انکی سرحدوں پر موجود کشمکش کو مکمل بدامنی میں تبدیل کرکے جولان کو دوسرے سینا میں تبدیل کر سکتی ہے۔ http://www.islamtimes.org/vdcdnx0fxyt0jx6.432y.html === Top News After the battle, despair grips Damascus Sun, Jul 29 09:32 AM EDT (The identities of the reporters have been withheld for their security) DAMASCUS (Reuters) - In the once bustling shopping district of Hamra Street in the heart of Damascus, three men - all made homeless by fighting which raged in the city for two weeks - sit outside their empty shops on a deserted pavement. Residents of the eastern and southern suburbs of the Syrian capital, which have been hardest hit by President Bashar al-Assad's fierce counter-offensive against rebel forces, they have sought shelter with family in central Damascus. "Can you believe that all three of us here have fled our homes? All of us are from destroyed homes. Living with relatives in the centre of town," said Ahmed, a shop owner from Douma, an opposition suburb to the east of the capital. They have joined many thousands who have retreated inwards to relative safety, leaving the city shrunken and surrounded by a still smoldering war zone. But even central Damascus has been shattered by the violence. Shops open only between 9 am and 3 pm, food prices have soared and no one dares walk outside after dusk, even in the holy month of Ramadan when streets are normally packed late into the night with people celebrating after a day of fasting. "There are no customers and I sent my employees home. I cannot afford to pay them. I cannot afford to pay the installments on my home. I am bankrupt," said Ahmed who, like others interviewed for this article, declined to give his full name. The men, from the southern suburb of Sayida Zeinab and Hajar al-Aswad - hit by rockets and heavy machine gun fire from helicopter gunships - said they initially had little sympathy with the uprising against 42 years of Assad family rule, inspired by revolts across the Arab world last year. "To begin with I was with the regime, for sure," said Ahmed. "But now, no, the regime must go. Take what they want with them, but they must go." Mohammad blamed the 46-year-old president, who has vowed to defeat what he says is foreign-backed terrorist violence, for the increasing despair in Damascus. "Can anyone stand by him now? I don't believe it. We're all refugees. We have no houses, no money. Our bosses don't pay us. This must end." REFUGEE RESTAURANTS Restaurants in the centre of Damascus, which would normally be packed at dusk as Muslims break their daily Ramadan fast, say they have been empty for days. "From the first day of Ramadan till today, not one customer has stepped into this restaurant," said Mohammad, who works at a restaurant in the 29th of May street, a few blocks north of the old city. "Five people came today but because I wasn't expecting anyone I had to turn them away." Only the snack restaurants selling fatayer - meat or vegetables wrapped in pastry - are doing good business, feeding displaced people in schools and gardens. A school in Barzeh, in northern Damascus, has taken in 1,500 displaced people from Douma, Qaboun and Harasta, rebel strongholds to the east which have been pounded by Assad's army. "All sorts of help is brought, especially food in Ramadan," said one activist at the school. In many districts the pervasive stench of rotten garbage, left uncollected throughout last week's scorching heat and heavy fighting, has finally dissipated following a cleanup by both residents and authorities. In the northern neighborhood of Jisr al-Abyad, people desperate for business have resorted to selling goods on the pavements, something which in pre-crisis days would have been immediately stopped by city authorities. Checkpoints and roadblocks hamper movement for those who want to travel. "I can't get to work or deliver my goods, not that there is much business anyway ... I haven't brought a penny home in three months," said Bassam, a honey producer who fled his home in Douma with his family to stay with relatives in central Abu Roumaneh. "No one is buying, no one is selling. The Syrian pound is weak ... And prices of everything have sky rocketed,' said Marwan, an agricultural products supplier. Fears over a prolonged blockade and food and petrol shortages saw a spike in the price of foodstuffs of up to 150 percent last week with three-hour queues forming at gas stations until a convoy of tankers on Sunday brought more petrol. In Midan, the first district of the capital to be retaken by Assad's forces eight days ago, the wreckage of burned-out cars, destroyed buildings and bullet-ridden walls and windows bore witness to indiscriminate destruction. "I came back on Monday and found my home turned inside out. luckily I had taken my gold and money with me but the army took my son's clothes, my perfume bottles and other items," said Huda, a resident of Damascus' traditional heartland. "Please tell the world to cut China and Russia off and to get us a no-fly zone," another Midan resident said, reflecting the anger of Assad's opponents towards Beijing and Moscow for blocking Western-backed United Nations resolutions over Syria. "I swear that if it wasn't for my family I would be out there fighting with the Free Syrian Army." WARY OF REBELS Not everyone is rooting for the rebels. Aside from staunchly pro-Assad loyalists, there is an increasing number of people who oppose the president but are wary of the FSA. "Neither side is a very attractive option for Syria ... The regime is a beast but the FSA, the Salafists and the international agenda are going to destroy the country," said Housam, a local resident. That despair is echoed in the Shaalan vegetable market, where shoppers and shopkeepers alike see little chance of escaping the spiral of violence and economic collapse. One woman shopping at the market said she had only started leaving her home in the last two days, in daylight. "Life has become one big problem. Syrians are killing Syrians. Everyone in my street in Mezze fled," said another woman driving to Shaalan. "The country is being destroyed." Like his customers, a shopkeeper bemoaned the high prices. "I'm just like them - I can only get food and vegetables and fruit if I pay double. And it only gets here with difficulty. None of us can bear it," he said. "The solution is in the hands of the regime. Either he goes, or he stays on killing people," said the shopkeeper, choosing out of contempt or residual fear not to speak Assad's name out loud. "As long as he stays, there is no solution." (Writing by Dominic Evans; Editing by Giles Elgood) ies http://jang.com.pk/jang/jul2012-daily/29-07-2012/col9.htm Very nice wrote that " Islami Dehsgadgardun K zarea Agla Inqlab shaam (Syria) me Berpa krney ki koshish Jari he...... == Assad forces pound Aleppo, declare Damascus victory Sun, Jul 29 17:06 PM EDT 1 of 13 By Erika Solomon ALEPPO, Syria (Reuters) - The government of Bashar al-Assad declared victory on Sunday in a hard-fought battle for Syria's capital Damascus, and pounded rebels who control parts of its largest city Aleppo. Assad's forces have struggled as never before to maintain their grip on the country over the past two weeks after a major rebel advance into the two largest cities and an explosion that killed four top security officials. Government forces have succeeded in reimposing their grip on the capital after a punishing battle, but rebels are still in control of sections of Aleppo, clashing with reinforced army troops for several days. "Today I tell you, Syria is stronger... In less than a week they were defeated (in Damascus) and the battle failed," Foreign Minister Walid Moualem said on a visit to Iran, Assad's main ally in a region where other neighbors have forsaken him. "So they moved on to Aleppo and I assure you, their plots will fail." Rebel fighters were clearly in control of parts of Aleppo, where Reuters journalists saw neighborhoods dotted with Free Syrian Army checkpoints flying black and white Islamist banners. Helicopter gunships hovered over the city shortly after dawn and the thud of artillery boomed across neighborhoods. Rebel fighters, patrolling opposition districts in flat-bed trucks flying green-white-and-black "independence" flags, said they were holding off Assad's forces in the south-western Aleppo district of Salaheddine, where clashes have gone on for days. Opposition activists also reported fighting in other rebel-held districts of Aleppo, in what could herald the start of a decisive phase in the battle for Syria's commercial hub, after the army sent tank columns and troop reinforcements last week. Cars entering one Aleppo district came under fire from snipers and a Reuters photographer saw three bodies lying in the street. Unable to move them to hospital for fear of shelling, residents had placed frozen water bottles on two of the corpses to slow their decomposition in the baking heat. Other rebel-held areas visited by Reuters were empty of residents. Fighters were basing themselves in houses - some clearly abandoned in a hurry, with food still in the fridges. A burnt out tank lay in the street, while nearby another one had been captured intact and covered in tarpaulin. In a largely empty street, flanked by closed shops and run-down buildings, women clad in long black abaya cloaks walked with children next to walls daubed with rebel graffiti - "Freedom", "Free Syrian Army" and "Down with Bashar". Rubbish lay uncollected. In one street families were packing vans full of mattresses in apparent preparation to flee. Near the center of town, most shops were shuttered, some with the word "Strike" painted over them. The only shop doing business was a bakery selling subsidized bread, where the queue stretched around the block. Burnt cars could be seen in many streets, some with the word "shabbiha" marked on them - a reference to pro-Assad militiamen. U.N. Undersecretary-General for humanitarian affairs Valerie Amos said 200,000 people had fled the fighting in and around Aleppo in the last two days, and the violence across Syria made it hard for humanitarian agencies reach them. "Many people have sought temporary shelter in schools and other public buildings in safer areas. They urgently need food, mattresses and blankets, hygiene supplies and drinking water." Late on Sunday Syrian state television said soldiers were repelling "terrorists" in Salaheddine and had captured several of their leaders. "Complete control of Salaheddine has been (won back) from those mercenary gunmen," an unidentified military officer told the television news, saying the gunmen included fighters from Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Turkey and Yemen. "In a few days safety and security will return to the city of Aleppo". Reuters journalists in the city were not able to reach the district to verify whether rebels had been pushed out. The pro-opposition Syrian Observatory for Human rights said fighting continued in Salaheddine late on Sunday. KILLING MACHINE The leader of Syria's main political opposition group, the Syrian National Council, called for foreign allies to provide heavy weapons to fight Assad's "killing machine". "The rebels are fighting with primitive weapons...We want weapons that we can stop tanks and planes with," SNC chief Abdelbasset Seida said in Abu Dhabi. He urged foreign allies to circumvent the divided U.N. Security Council and intervene. "Our friends and allies will bear responsibility for what is happening in Aleppo if they do not move soon," he said, adding that talks would start on forming a transitional government. Arab League head Nabil Elaraby said the battle in Aleppo amounted to "war crimes", and perpetrators would eventually be punished, Egypt's MENA state news agency reported. The Arab League has suspended Syria and lined up with the West and Turkey against Assad. Assad's government blames Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia and Qatar, for the revolt. Reuters reported on Friday that Saudi Arabia and Qatar had set up a base in southeastern Turkey to aid the rebels. A Saudi Foreign Ministry spokesman declined on Sunday to comment directly but said Riyadh gave financial and humanitarian aid to the Syrian people. He also hinted at more direct support, saying countries should enable Syrians "to protect themselves at the very least, if the international community is not able to do so". Assad's ruling structure draws strongly on his Alawite minority sect, an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam, while his opposition is drawn largely from the Sunni Muslim majority, backed by Sunni leaders who rule nearly all other Arab states. That has raised fears that the 16-month-old conflict could spread across the wider Middle East, where a sectarian divide between Sunnis and Shi'ites has been at the root of violence in Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain and elsewhere. Shi'ite Iran demonstrated its firm support for Assad by hosting his foreign minister. At a joint news conference with Moualem, Iran's own Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi rebuked the West and Arab states for holding the "illusion" that Assad could be easily replaced in a managed transition. CRUCIAL TEST In Damascus, where Assad's forces have pushed back a rebel offensive since a deadly July 18 bomb attack on his inner circle, many residents have fled fighting in the outskirts for relative safety in the heart of the capital. In the centre, shops open only between 9 am and 3 pm, food prices have soared and no one dares walk outside after dusk, even in the holy month of Ramadan when streets are normally packed late into the night with people breaking the fast. "To begin with I was with the regime, for sure," said Ahmed, from one of the southern suburbs where the army, backed by helicopters and tanks, launched its counter-offensive. "But now, no, the regime must go. Take what they want with them, but they must go." The battle for Aleppo, a city of 2.5 million people, is a decisive test of the government's ability to retake its two main cities. It has committed huge military resources to the battle there after losing control of outlying rural areas and some border crossings with Turkey and Iraq. The British-based Observatory said 26 people were killed in Aleppo on Saturday and 190 across Syria. It reported fighting in Deraa, Homs and Hama. There was no way to verify its figures. The Aleppo fighting follows the July 18 bomb attack, which killed four top security officials including Assad's defense minister, intelligence chief and powerful brother-in-law. Interior Minister Mohammad al-Shaar, who was wounded in the attack, told state media the assassination had only hardened the authorities' determination to crush the revolt. "Before this cowardly explosion, we were all working flat out. But now we will exert 10 times the effort to pursue those who threaten the security of our country," Shaar said. (Additional reporting by Yara Bayoumy in Beirut, Yeganeh Torbati in Dubai, and a reporter in Damascus who cannot be identified for security reasons; Writing by Dominic Evans; Editing by Peter Graff) __ == Syrian Refugees Are Stung by a Hostile Reception in Iraq Published: July 29, 2012 2 Comments Refugees from Syria arriving at the Iraqi side of the border crossing near Qaim, Iraq. By DURAID ADNAN and ROD NORDLAND Published: July 29, 2012 2 Comments QAIM, Iraq — Muhammed Muafak decided he had had enough when Syrian Army mortar shells struck near his house while his family was having the iftar meal to end the daily Ramadan fast. He packed up his 10-member household in Bukamal, the Syrian border town where they lived, and fled here to this Iraqi border town. He expected a warm welcome. After all, his own country had taken in 1.2 million Iraqis during their recent war, far more than any of Iraq’s other neighbors, and had allowed them to work, send their children to public schools and receive state medical care. Instead, Mr. Muafak found himself and his family locked up in a school building under guard with several hundred other Syrians, forbidden to leave to visit his relatives in Iraq or to do much of anything else. “We wish to go back to Syria and die there instead of living here in this prison,” said Abdul Hay Majeed, another Syrian held in a school building, along with 11 family members. Mr. Majeed was refused permission for that either, he and other refugees said. Alone among Syria’s Muslim neighbors, Iraq is actively resisting receiving refugees from the conflict, and is making those who do arrive anything but comfortable. Baghdad is worried about the fighters of a newly resurgent Al Qaeda flowing both ways across the border, and about the Sunni opponents of the two governments making common cause. The Shiite-dominated government of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki in Iraq, while officially neutral, has been supportive of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, whose ruling Alawite minority is an offshoot of Shia Islam. Last week, for instance, Iraq abstained from supporting a resolution by the Arab League calling for Mr. Assad to step down, calling it unwarranted interference in Syria’s internal affairs. Though Syrians have been fleeing the unrest in their country for months, Iraq did not open its borders to refugees until last week, after protests from the Sunni tribes in Anbar Province. The Bukamal border crossing, near this city, is the most problematic one for Iraq, with the Syrian side now under the control of opposition forces. The restrictions Baghdad has imposed on refugees here proved so severe that on Friday, representatives of the Anbar tribes and hundreds of followers took to the streets in the 125-degree midday heat to protest the treatment of the newly arriving Syrians, many of whom have family and tribal connections with Iraqis here. “We can’t even go see them,” said Mohamed Hassan, an Iraqi tribal sheik who took part in the protest. Like many others, Mr. Hassan complained that the refugees were being treated like criminals, kept under military guard in 11 school buildings and one mosque and denied any visitors or permission to leave the centers. “We want to welcome them in our homes,” Mr. Hassan said. “We want to offer them food and a good place to stay, just as they did for us when we were in Syria.” Another protester shouted, “We will sleep in the street and let them stay inside our houses — why are you scared to let them out?” Officially, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, António Guterres, has thanked all of Syria’s Muslim neighbors, including Iraq, for taking in refugees. The agency has registered 120,000 Syrian refugees but acknowledges that there are probably many more. Iraq, the country with the longest Syrian border, has received the fewest, just 8,445 in the United Nations count. Jordan says it has already taken in 140,000, and Turkey has registered 88,000 by the U.N.’s reckoning. “I am extremely grateful Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and Turkey have maintained open borders,” Mr. Guterres said. In Qaim, United Nations workers said refugees were being treated properly, but that only those who have Iraqi passports or visas were being allowed to leave the school. “I can only assume that some of the Syrians are distraught, suspicious and do not understand why they are asked to stay in the school as compared to the others, who have passports and can thus go to family and friends,” one United Nations official in Qaim wrote in an e-mail to the refugee commissioner’s headquarters in Geneva, a copy of which was obtained by The New York Times with the sender’s name deleted. On the first day after the Iraqis opened the border last week, on Wednesday, some 800 Syrians crossed over here, but the following day only 60 did so, apparently because the Syrian opposition forces on the other side began warning people of the unpleasant reception awaiting them, Iraqi officials said. - The contrast with the situation during the war in Iraq is stark. Syria took in more Iraqis than any other neighbor, and was more hospitable than Jordan, which imposed tight restrictions on its 750,000 refugees’ freedom to work and use public services. Most of the Iraqis who took refuge in Syria have returned by now, although the United Nations counts 88,000 still in the country, most of them in Damascus. Multimedia Video Feature Watching Syria’s War . Connect With Us on Twitter Follow @nytimesworld for international breaking news and headlines. Twitter List: Reporters and Editors . Readers’ Comments Share your thoughts. Post a Comment » Read All Comments (2) » The differences have everything to do with the changing fortunes of the two neighbors. During the height of the Iraq war, Mr. Assad had firm control of his country, and an interest in destabilizing Iraq and undercutting its American allies. Syria routinely helped Al Qaeda infiltrate fighters and suicide bombers into Iraq. Now, United States troops are gone from Iraq, and Al Qaeda has switched sides, taking up arms against the Assad government as well. “Everyone knows that the Iraqis who are returning are wanted people and bad people,” said Sheik Salman Musleh, who heads a center in Qaim that tries to help arriving Syrians. “The Syrians are families, and we want to take care of them; they will not affect the security situation in Iraq. We need to give them what they deserve, the way they supported us during our crises.” Mr. Musleh said Iraqi volunteers had sent truckloads of supplies for the refugees in Qaim, but Iraqi officials had stopped them from being delivered. Majeed Khalil, 48, came from Syria with his wife and 13 other family members the day the border opened. Since his wife was an Iraqi citizen, he expected to enter freely, but the Iraqi authorities allowed only her to leave custody; he and the children remain in a school building under guard. “If they don’t want us here, they should let us go back to our country,” said Thafir Khalel, who arrived on Thursday. “It’s better to die there than be humiliated here.” Iraqi officials visiting the refugees were stung by their criticism. “We were not ready to receive this number of Syrian brothers,” said Dindar Najman, the Iraqi minister in charge of refugee affairs, after a visit to Qaim on Friday. “We promise them that we will prepare good places for them soon.” The Iraqi minister of finance, Rafi al Esawi, also visited here on Friday, and said the government was surprised by the requests from refugees to visit Iraqi relatives and, in many cases, to return to Syria. “We will return to Baghdad and study this matter,” Mr. Esawi said. “All the security and services ministries will discuss and decide who will stay and who will leave the centers.” === « Previous Page 1 2 Duraid Adnan reported from Qaim, Iraq, and Rod Nordland from Cairo.

=================== ANALYSIS-No happy outcome in Syria as conflict turns into proxy war Wed, 1 Aug 2012 13:56 GMT Source: reuters // Reuters * Syria conflict seen turning into proxy war * Sunni and Shi'ite hostility could destabilise region * Opposition can present no credible alternative to Assad By Samia Nakhoul BEIRUT, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Regional powers are pouring in money and guns, jihadists are joining rebels battling to overthrow Bashar al-Assad, while his own well-armed but hard-pressed forces are fighting back ruthlessly with combat aircraft and artillery. Gruesome scenes of slaughtered civilians or executed rebel fighters provide daily snapshots of the worsening conflict in Syria. Video apparently showing rebels gunning down Assad militiamen in cold blood suggests the insurgents are capable of brutality to match their enemies. After almost 17 months of revolt against the Assad dictatorship, Syria's conflict is turning into a regional proxy war between Sunni and Shi'ite Islam that could splinter the country along sectarian lines unless a unified rebel leadership emerges as a credible opposition to the beleaguered government. Few observers of Syria see any sign of an opposition ready to run the country if or when Assad and his clan, whose power base lies in the esoteric Shi'ite sect of Syria's Alawite minority, lose overall control. Some fear a Lebanon-style free-for-all, in which armed groups from different sectarian and ideological backgrounds fight for supremacy over territory, turning Syria into a patchwork that condemns its state to failure. With the Shi'ite Islamic Republic of Iran behind Assad, and Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Muslim states backing the rebels, Syria could become the arena in which the regional Sunni-Shi'ite cold war becomes an open-ended civil war with the potential to destabilise its neighbours - Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Jordan. "We most definitely have a proxy war in Syria," says Ayham Kamel of the Eurasia Group political risk consultancy. "At this point of the conflict it is difficult not to say that the international dimension of the Syrian conflict precedes the domestic one." "Syria is an open field now. The day after Assad falls you (will) have all of these different groups with different agendas, with different allegiances, with different states supporting them yet unable to form a coherent leadership." What started on March 15, 2011 as an internal uprising against the Assads' repressive 40-year rule, emulating the revolts that toppled leaders in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, has now been transformed into an arena for foreign meddling.

SYRIA FRAGMENTING Kamel believes Syria is already fragmenting, and that the Free Syrian Army, the umbrella for a plethora of armed groups fighting to overthrow Assad, is little more than a franchise of Sunni Muslim groups. "The Free Syrian army is only a slogan. There is no unity in these rebel groups," he argues. "To have an FSA you would need a command structure, and everybody following that command structure." Instead, he says, "There are different groups supplied financially and militarily by different states and they are quasi-independent." "Different regions are controlled by different groups, whether of ideological or sectarian background, and whether Bashar's regime remains a player, we already have a lot more players than before," Kamel says. "I don't discount the possibility that you (will) have different rebel groups struggling with each other for control of territory." Close watchers of Syria say the real danger is of a prolonged and very bloody civil war and a sectarian struggle, exacerbated by the lack of a unified and credible opposition. "I don't think there is anybody to take over," said George Joffe, a Middle East expert at Cambridge University. "The really big problem is that there is no credible opposition." "How do you bring them together, how do you get them to collaborate at this late stage because they are diametrically opposed on what should be done?" he said. Sarkis Naoum, a long-time critic of the Assad dictatorship who writes for Beirut's an-Nahar newspaper, says: "The opposition is fractured, with some outside and some inside (the country), some are Islamists, some are secular, but it is not easy to have an organised opposition with a government-in-waiting after 40 years of totalitarian rule." "Any perception that a post-Assad Syria will involve a smooth transition is misplaced," insists Ayman Kamel.

RIDDLED WITH RIVALRIES The political opposition in exile, represented by the Syrian National Council, which groups the Muslim Brotherhood, pro-democracy activists and leftist groups, is riddled with ideological and religious rivalries impeding its attempt to forge a political alternative to Assad. While the SNC has been an international voice for the opposition, rebel commanders on the ground say the exiled leadership has little connection to what is happening in Syria. The disarray among the opposition is on display in the contradictory statements on how to deal with the conflict, with some groups calling for more arms while others demanding a negotiated settlement. As soon as some prominent SNC members announced the formation of a new political coalition that plans to establish a post-Assad transitional government, it was attacked by both the head of the SNC, Abdelbasset Seida, and the commander of the Free Syrian Army, General Riad al-Asaad. Seida said: "If each group came out alone announcing the formation of a new government without talks, this would end up in having a series of weak governments that don't represent anyone." Asaad called the new coalition "opportunists" seeking to benefit from the rebels' gains. On the ground, the picture is getting darker. State authority is slowly and incrementally disintegrating. Many areas of Syria are outside government control, regionalism is taking over from national unity, and rebel groups are multiplying with very different agendas and leaderships. The government military onslaught has been stepped up since insurgents took their battle to Damascus and Aleppo last month and carried out a bomb attack against Assad's inner circle that killed his brother-in-law and three other top military leaders. The conflict has left 18,000 dead and displaced hundreds of thousands, according to United Nations and activist figures. It is complicated by Syria's religious divisions. The Assads and the military elite units belong to the Alawite sect, a minority in a Sunni Muslim country. The Alawites form about 12 percent of Syria's 23 million people but are reckoned to make up 40 percent of the army and the bulk of the pro-Assad Shabbiha militia. Sunnis, who account for the majority of the opposition, form 75 percent of the population. SUPERIOR FIREPOWER Although the authorities have the upper hand because of superior firepower and units of loyal elite troops, the insurgents are highly motivated combatants who are becoming better armed, better trained and better organised. As the conflict rages on without any solution, Syrians say homegrown Islamist jihadists and groups of fighters from al Qaeda have been taking an active role. Most analysts agree that there is no "good or happy scenario" and that the chances of a negotiated settlement under the auspices of U.N. envoy Kofi Annan are nil. Assad's forces' success in retaking insurgent-held territory in Damascus by using airpower, and their ferocious campaign in Aleppo, show the government still has the capacity to fight back and hold its ground, but most analysts believe it will find it difficult to sustain the momentum in the long-term. Some think the authorities have prepared a fall-back position as an insurance policy should Assad's rule collapse: a retreat to an Alawite enclave on the north-west coast after expanding it by sectarian cleansing of some cities including Aleppo and Homs. "I believe (the regime) has already begun to plan such an eventuality but that will set up a much wider conflict inside Syria itself," said Joffe. "Aleppo is part of their focus to cleanse this coastal area, absolutely to clear it up to the Turkish border. I am sure that's the plan but whether they can do it or not it is something I don't know." Such an enclave, coupled with the flow of refugees across the border and rising sectarian tensions in the region, could have effects beyond Syria to Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq, which have their own sectarian and ethnic mixes of Alawites, Sunnis, Shi'ites and Kurds and where tensions are already high. With no Western appetite for military intervention and no prospect of an internationally mediated political resolution, many see the civil war spreading and tearing the country apart. "Disintegration of Syria is a possibility and the problem is it won't work. It would create a power vacuum in which others get dragged in just like Iraq. It is a very frightening scenario," Joffe said. Lebanese columnist Rajeh Khoury predicted: "Syria could plunge into a long protracted civil war that could last years. The civil war in Lebanon, with its much smaller population of five million, lasted 15 years due to foreign interference so Syria would be much more complicated. "The Syrian crisis is so inflammatory that its flames will affect the region in one way or another." (Additional reporting by Layla Bassam; Editing by Giles Elgood) =============== Obama authorizes secret support for Syrian rebels Wed, Aug 01 21:04 PM EDT By Mark Hosenball WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama has signed a secret order authorizing U.S. support for rebels seeking to depose Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his government, sources familiar with the matter said. Obama's order, approved earlier this year and known as an intelligence "finding," broadly permits the CIA and other U.S. agencies to provide support that could help the rebels oust Assad. This and other developments signal a shift toward growing, albeit still circumscribed, support for Assad's armed opponents - a shift that intensified following last month's failure of the U.N. Security Council to agree on tougher sanctions against the Damascus government. The White House is for now apparently stopping short of giving the rebels lethal weapons, even as some U.S. allies do just that. But U.S. and European officials have said that there have been noticeable improvements in the coherence and effectiveness of Syrian rebel groups in the past few weeks. That represents a significant change in assessments of the rebels by Western officials, who previously characterized Assad's opponents as a disorganized, almost chaotic, rabble. Precisely when Obama signed the secret intelligence authorization, an action not previously reported, could not be determined. The full extent of clandestine support that agencies like the CIA might be providing also is unclear. White House spokesman Tommy Vietor declined comment. 'NERVE CENTER' A U.S. government source acknowledged that under provisions of the presidential finding, the United States was collaborating with a secret command center operated by Turkey and its allies. Last week, Reuters reported that, along with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Turkey had established a secret base near the Syrian border to help direct vital military and communications support to Assad's opponents. This "nerve center" is in Adana, a city in southern Turkey about 60 miles from the Syrian border, which is also home to Incirlik, a U.S. air base where U.S. military and intelligence agencies maintain a substantial presence. Turkey's moderate Islamist government has been demanding Assad's departure with growing vehemence. Turkish authorities are said by current and former U.S. government officials to be increasingly involved in providing Syrian rebels with training and possibly equipment. European government sources said wealthy families in Saudi Arabia and Qatar were providing significant financing to the rebels. Senior officials of the Saudi and Qatari governments have publicly called for Assad's departure. On Tuesday, NBC News reported that the Free Syrian Army had obtained nearly two dozen surface-to-air missiles, weapons that could be used against Assad's helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft. Syrian government armed forces have employed such air power more extensively in recent days. NBC said the shoulder-fired missiles, also known as MANPADs, had been delivered to the rebels via Turkey. On Wednesday, however, Bassam al-Dada, a political adviser to the Free Syrian Army, denied the NBC report, telling the Arabic-language TV network Al-Arabiya that the group had "not obtained any such weapons at all." U.S. government sources said they could not confirm the MANPADs deliveries, but could not rule them out either. Current and former U.S. and European officials previously said that weapons supplies, which were being organized and financed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, were largely limited to guns and a limited number of anti-tank weapons, such as bazookas. Indications are that U.S. agencies have not been involved in providing weapons to Assad's opponents. In order to do so, Obama would have to approve a supplement, known as a "memorandum of notification, to his initial broad intelligence finding. Further such memoranda would have to be signed by Obama to authorize other specific clandestine operations to support Syrian rebels. Reuters first reported last week that the White House had crafted a directive authorizing greater U.S. covert assistance to Syrian rebels. It was unclear at that time whether Obama had signed it. OVERT SUPPORT Separately from the president's secret order, the Obama administration has stated publicly that it is providing some backing for Assad's opponents. The State Department said on Wednesday the U.S. government had set aside a total of $25 million for "non-lethal" assistance to the Syrian opposition. A U.S. official said that was mostly for communications equipment, including encrypted radios. The State Department also says the United States has set aside $64 million in humanitarian assistance for the Syrian people, including contributions to the World Food Program, the International Committee of the Red Cross and other aid agencies. Also on Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury confirmed it had granted authorization to the Syrian Support Group, Washington representative of one of the most active rebel factions, the Free Syrian Army, to conduct financial transactions on the rebel group's behalf. The authorization was first reported on Friday by Al-Monitor, a Middle East news and commentary website. Last year, when rebels began organizing themselves to challenge the rule of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, Obama also signed an initial "finding" broadly authorizing secret U.S. backing for them. But the president moved cautiously in authorizing specific measures to support them. Some U.S. lawmakers, such as Republican Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham, have criticized Obama for moving too slowly to assist the rebels and have suggested the U.S. government become directly involved in arming Assad's opponents. Other lawmakers have suggested caution, saying too little is known about the many rebel groups. Recent news reports from the region have suggested that the influence and numbers of Islamist militants, some of them connected to al Qaeda or its affiliates, have been growing among Assad's opponents. U.S. and European officials say that, so far, intelligence agencies do not believe the militants' role in the anti-Assad opposition is dominant. While U.S. and allied government experts believe that the Syrian rebels have been making some progress against Assad's forces lately, most believe the conflict is nowhere near resolution, and could go on for years. (Additional reporting by Tabassum Zakaria and Arshad Mohammed; Editing by Warren Strobel and Peter Cooney) ==