Date posted today 10:16
Subject Vote Up If You Should Be On This List
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 18 times.
Message
Just for an indication of the Voting Power on this BB
Now compare nlper's list from Wednesday, noting the changes.
Let it never be said that Institutions are nor buying and selling, just like PI's. Top 10!
Interesting to see TK at 166,667. Is he expecting the 'final price' to be a multiple of 3?
No of shares------Date Updated--------- Organisation
58,125,647 -- 01-Mar-12 -- TDW.......TD Direct Investing 59,727,737 (6.82%)
50,350,000 --29-Feb-12 -- M&G........M&G Investments 50,350,000 (5.75%)
47,253,895 -- 31-Mar-12 -- Capital.....Capital Research 40,871,564 (4.66%)
46,079,026 -- 01-Mar-12 ---Barclays.... Barclays 47,870,758 (5.46%)
43,186,538 -- 31-Mar-12 --Baillie Gifford......Baillie Gifford 53,301,446 (6.08%)
30,129,261 -- 01-Mar-12 --- Hargreaves....... Hargreaves 31,560,830 (3.60%)
27,581,051 -- 01-Mar-12 --- Selftrade..........Selftrade 27,677,852 (3.16%)
27,336,175 -- 01-Mar-12 --- Halifax ........... Halifax Share Dealing 27,663,042 (3.16%)
27,227,017 -- 01-Mar-12 --- Kuok Co...... Kuok Group Companies 27,227,017 (3.11%)
25,945,515 -- 01-Mar-12 -- Kozel Family (rem Gokana)Gokana Trust 29,695,515 (3.39%)
25,000,000 ---- 20-Sep-11 ---------- Small a/c on register
23,922,058 -- 01-Mar-12 ---- UBS Private Banking..... UBS Private Banking 24,555,044 (2.80%)
23,441,651 -- 01-Mar-12 ----Pershing......Pershing New Jersey 24,393,181 (2.78%)
22,614,498 ---- 01-Mar-12 ---------- Shareprice
18,744,995 ---- 29-Mar-12 ---------- Employee Benefit Trust
17,433,433 ---- 17-Jan-12 ---------- Ashley Kozel ?
17,000,000 ---- 01-Mar-12 ---------- Gibca ? MAX
15,600,000 ---- 01-May-11 ---------- Agile Energy ? Data old
14,232,880 ---- 31-Jan-12 ---------- HSBC
12,240,519 ---- 31-Mar-12 ---------- JPMorgan
12,005,230 ---- 31-Mar-12 ---------- RS
10,450,000 ---- 29-Mar-12 ---------- Ali Al-Qabandi
10,000,000 ---- 01-Mar-12 ---------- Exit Award Trust
7,554,998 ----- 29-Feb-12 ---------- M&G Mirror
5,356,606 ----- 31-Dec-11 ---------- Blakeney
4,000,000 ----- 14-Sep-11 ---------- Ibrahim Al-Khaldi.
3,935,754 ----- 31-Mar-12 ---------- Henderson
3,510,680 ----- 31-Mar-12 ---------- Legal and General
3,270,813 ----- 31-Mar-12 ---------- Vanguard
1,830,420 ----- 19-Apr-12 ---------- BlackRock
1,203,698 ----- 31-Jan-12 ---------- TIAA CREF
1,122,555 ----- 01-Mar-12 ---------- Lord Truscott
1,050,000-------- 31-Mar-12 ---------- Meeschaert
1,040,000-------- 31-Jan-12 ---------- HARGREAVE HALE
761,500 -------- 21-Sep-11 ---------- Renaissance
761,500 -------- 12-Jan-12 ---------- Mirabaud
720,000 -------- 31-Jan-12 ---------- Jupiter
670,000 -------- 31-Mar-11 ---------- Artemis
636,386 -------- 30-Jun-11 ---------- California State Teachers Retirement System
620,000 -------- 31-Dec-11 ---------- MERRILL LYNCH
597,187 -------- 01-Mar-12 ---------- Kristian (Ewen) Ainsworth
578,208 -------- 29-Mar-12 ---------- Mehdi Varzi
500,018 -------- 20-Sep-11 ---------- RBS NV
410,491 -------- 31-Jan-12 ---------- Standard Life
402,600 -------- 30-Mar-12 ---------- NATCAN INVESTMENT
366,259 -------- 29-Feb-12 ---------- Henderson Mirror
365,052 -------- 31-Dec-11 ---------- Deka
340,000 -------- 30-Sep-11 ---------- CQS Cayman Limited
262,623 -------- 31-Dec-11 ---------- MQ
255,000 -------- 31-Dec-11 ---------- Gabelli
250,000 -------- 30-Jun-11 ---------- UBS
240,000 -------- 14-Sep-11 ---------- Mohammed Messaoudi
232,025 -------- 29-Mar-12 ---------- Other BOD
225,866 -------- 31-Jan-12 ---------- BIM INTERMOBILIARE
191,300 -------- 31-Mar-12 ---------- Northern Star
166,667 -------- 01-Mar-12 ---------- Todd F Kozel
150,664 -------- 31-Dec-11 ---------- State Street
142,857 -------- 01-Mar-12 ---------- Tony Peart
140,000 -------- 30-Nov-11 ---------- Eden Financial
139,530 -------- 29-Feb-12 ---------- F&C
130,024 -------- 31-Mar-12 ---------- BNP Paribas
125,000 -------- 31-Dec-11 ---------- Eurizon Capital
125,000 -------- 31-Mar-12 ---------- TCW
120,114 -------- 31-Dec-12 ---------- Symphonia SGR S.p.A.
100,000 -------- 30-Nov-11 ---------- Advisory Invest GmbH
100,000 -------- 29-Feb-12 ---------- Anima Sgr
99,026
========
Author pathai View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted Thursday 14:54
Subject Gulf Keystone gags man behind online rumours
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 3 times.
Message
Only posting this because of the photo.
Goodnight all and GL for the rest of the day.
http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article1247552.ece
Bill Lehane , News Wires
17 May 2012 13:08 GMT
.
Man posted false rumours about share issue by explorer, causing stocks to plummet
UK-listed oil explorer Gulf Keystone Petroleum has said it has obtained legally-binding assurances that an individual who spread damaging rumours about the company online, which were later admitted to be fantasies, would cease to comment publicly on its activities.
According to court documents, 28-year-old Spencer Freeman posted numerous messages on Twitter and online bulletin boards about Gulf Keystone between June 2011 and May 2012, Dow Jones reported.
The messages culminated in a claim on 9 May that the company was preparing to raise cash by issuing shares at a price of £1.60, a 22% discount to its closing share price the previous day.
Shares in Gulf Keystone plunged by as much as 9% that day and remained down until the company refuted the claims in a regulatory filing 10 May.
Gulf Keystone said in the court documents it was seeking to prevent Freeman "posting untrue and damaging allegations" that prompted a collapse in its share price and took up substantial management time "dealing with disgruntled investors and press inquiries".
Freeman will voluntarily abide by Gulf Keystone's demands, in an agreement that will have the same legal force as a court injunction, said Justice David Bean, the presiding judge in the case.
Gulf Keystone will take no further proceedings against Freeman, but he could face contempt of court charges if he breaches his undertakings, the judge said.
Freeman and a spokeswoman for Gulf Keystone declined to comment on the hearing to the wire service.
Refuting the claims last week, Gulf Keystone said it could “confirm categorically that it has no current intention of undertaking an institutional fundraising”.
Chief executive Todd Kozel said the “unfounded speculation” was “damaging and misleading”, and was hampering the company’s efforts to add shareholder value through its exploration programme.
"We will not tolerate malicious attempts to damage the company's reputation and share price,” he said.
“We have instructed the company's lawyers to use all means necessary to protect our shareholders from this malicious and unfounded attack."
Gulf Keystone also said talks were ongoing with several interested bidders over the sale of its 20% stake in the Akri-Bijeel block in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
Re: Gulf Keystone gags man behind online...
Chicago Jack
20UP
Kind of ironic story here... A person places twitters comments about placings...GKP write a cheque for $12 million dollars of SHAREHOLDERS money to an unknown entity and there was a 9p placing that most financial observes found some what disgusting....Somethings just never had up
CJ
chris... I will respond to your comment... I posted on offers that were cleared at a high level to proceed to a table.. Now if you have a problem with that.. then fine.
I gave a detailed reason for the figures used by the Chinese.
I also said anyone talking down the assets was in my opinion wrong.
Toodle pip Chris...
NOS I did not mention 07 NOS...is there a reason you bring 07 up?
These things are not downers they are part of the corporate history and governance.. news int. not sure of the connection ..unless they had a cell phone link to GKP and thats coming up in some inquiry .
CJ
==
Rory McIIroy has just tweeted...
Richams1
12UP
"...If anyone is having a bad day, remember that today in 1976 Ronald Wayne sold his 10% stake in Apple for $800. Now it's worth $58,065,210,000"
Chin up all.
==
Author vimconfused View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted Friday 17:27
Subject Re: £40/share Chinese Bid View parent message
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 11 times.
Message
You only have to see a couple of responses since the "conditioning for low ball offers" comment to see that it's working! Sadly some people will only see multiples of current SP when considering an offer, not the fundamentals (which indicate the SP should be higher). In other words, perception of an offer when our SP was over £4 is very different than perception of the same offer from the current SP... but actually the (potential/ultimate) value of the company would be exactly the same.
As for whether the PI vote is irrelevant, it *may* be, but it shouldn't be underestimated. I make no comparisons but just stating a fact that when I held DGO the PI vote was extremely important in ensuring the remaining part of the company was not taken over by the majority shareholder (for all the good it did us).
===
Author tobytoby View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted Friday 18:35
Subject Re: £40/share Chinese Bid View parent message
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 10 times.
Message
golfguy31
Going by your assumptions.
2.8bbl reserves * $6 pboo / 876m shares * GBP0.60 = £11.51
Add AB/SA/BB/GAS / BACK COSTS/TANGIBLES thus far.........ho and a PREMIUM?
Basically mate you have no idea what you are talking about, Shaikan will prove to have at least 3 billion barrels of oil reserves to GKP @18bbls P50 (JG) 30/35% RF conservative (TK - TH).
What makes me laugh is all these clowns going on about accepting any offer so they can pay off a holiday to Blackpool with their diddly squat amount of shares.
Addax sold £32 per share for 536mmbls / 360m shares / producing 100k bopd - END.
...
''I'd anticipate an outright sale in the region of £11 to £13 per share.
based on a number of assumptions such as $6pb deal, official Kurd / Turkey oil payment mechanism announced, net booked reserves of 2.8bn barrels and a fracture report confirming min blended RF at 30%.....oh, and the ECB managing to kick the can down the road for at least another 3 months.
I would like to see an early mover in the £8 region (post fracture report) to force others to show their hand''.
==
Reuters
5:55 a.m. CDT, May 20, 2012
ARBIL, Iraq (Reuters) - Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region said on Sunday it expects to start exporting its crude oil production along a new pipeline to the Turkish border by August 2013, defying Baghad in a long-running dispute over who should control the country's oil exports.
The Kurdistan region, which has its own government and armed forces, has already clashed with Iraq's central government and halted its oil exports in April after accusing Baghdad of not remitting payments due.
...KRG oil minister Hawrami, governors Karim of Kirkuk and Nujaifi of Ninewa. Many IOCs. Former USG officials. No one from Baghdad. Separate Kurdish pipelines to Turkey in 2013-14 will be tantamount to formal secession http://bit.ly/LqsrTf via @LubnaNaji
==
"In August 2013 we will be able to directly export crude from the Kurdish region's fields," Hawrami said at an oil conference in Kurdistan on Sunday. "We will be responsible for exporting oil. It will still be Iraqi oil."
Baghdad says only the central government's oil authorities have the right to control oil exports, and dismisses contracts signed with the Kurdistan Regional Government as illegal, while the KRG says it has the right to develop its own oil fields.
Hawrami said once direct exports begin Kurdistan would take the 17 percent of revenues the region is allowed from Iraq's national budget and pass the rest to the federal government.
The minister said the first stage of the pipeline would be completed by October this year to carry crude from the Taq Taq oilfield. The second phase would connect to the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline with a capacity of 1 million barrels per day by August next year.
He said Kurdistan was also developing plans to build a separate pipeline that could connect to a refinery in Turkey's Ceyhan port by 2014.
The oil dispute between Baghdad and Kurdish capital Arbil is part of a broader political crisis in Iraq, where a fragile government among Shi'ite, Sunni and Kurdish blocs is struggling to overcome deep splits over power-sharing.
Last month Kurdistan halted crude exports because it said Baghdad was not fulfilling agreements to pay foreign oil companies working in the region, worsening the conflict between the ethnic Kurdish and mainly Iraqi Arab central government over regional autonomy, disputed territories and oil rights.
(Reporting by Ahmed Rasheed; Writing by Patrick Markey; Editing by Greg Mahlich)
===
11:34
Re: Why BB-1 is Unable to Flow
Gramacho
52UP
I have modified the previous plot to show the expected pressures at surface with a full column of oil with the same density as encountered in Sh-1. It explains why BB1 is unlikely to flow without a pump.
http://tinypic.com/r/313jaz8/6
GOR - Gas Oil Ratio
At Shaikan-1 the shut in surface pressure would be about 400psi indicating there is excess pressure and the well will flow without pumping, albeit at low rates as it turned out.
At BB-1 the surface shut in pressure will be 0psi. In fact if the oil is a little denser than at Shaikan the gradient will rotate slightly anti-clockwise and the fluid would not even reach the surface. In other words the well CANNOT flow without pumping no matter what the oil viscosity or how good the rock properties are.
This of course assumes the oil has a very low GOR like the Mus in Sh-1 so that the fluid gradient is not affected by break out of gas i.e. there is not a gas lift effect from the solution gas because the gas content is so low.
Genel should have known this risk at the outset. I don’t understand why an ESP / ESP - Electric Submersible Pump was not available for the initial test. Genel too used to nice low viscosity higher GOR crudes?
Once again if this is very viscous like Shaikan Cretaceous then the ESP will not enable the well to flow at commercial rates, steam injection will be needed, but if the viscosity is manageable and there are some fractures then the ESP will make the difference.
Regards,
Gramacho
09:17
Re: TH's Comments from RNS
Gramacho
110UP
Jurassic Matrix porosity is better than Shaikan and is highly encouraging.
There are two things working against flow:
1. The burial depth is similar to Shaikan Cretaceous which means that temperatures are low and viscosity could be high. If you recall JG said in an earlier conversation when I brought this up that he believed the absence of seeps across BB may indicate the light ends had not been lost and therefore the viscosity would still be OK.
The jury is still out on that one.
2. Pressures are much lower because it is much shallower relative to Shaikan, ref the attached plot. BB Top Jurassic is at roughly 60m ABOVE sea level whereas Shaikan is at about 550m BELOW sea level. Pressure at Top Jurassic should be around 1150 psi (yellow dot) versus 2000 psi at Shaikan.
http://tinypic.com/r/9b95hg/6
From the Genel RNS:
"Whilst the presence of a significant oil column is encouraging, further evaluation with the right flow test equipment is required before we can determine whether this discovery is commercially viable."
What Tony means is that his boys did not have an ESP ready to test the well with. TH to TK “Eh Todd can we borrow your pump please?” TK “I thought we told you that you would need one!”
Let’s hope we see a response to pumping similar to that enjoyed by Sh-1 Mus interval. From the GKP RNS of 11 Aug 2010:
Gulf Keystone announces the results of further testing of the Mus (1,627m to 1,667m) section of the Jurassic on its Shaikan-1 discovery well. Final, stable, production rates during this week's re-test, using a much improved test setup versus the original 2009 test, were measured at 1,250 bopd with an API gravity of 19.7 degrees and a gas oil ratio (GOR) of 10 standard cubic feet per barrel of oil at a flowing wellhead pressure of 50 psi. This natural flow rate represents a ten fold increase over the 128 bopd measured during the initial test in 2009.
Tests using a low capacity electric submersible pump (ESP), resulted in rates up to 2,250 bopd.
The workover rig will now begin operations to complete the Shaikan-1 well in the Sargelu (1,450m to 1,510m) section of the Jurassic, and the well will be configured for long term production testing.
John Gerstenlauer, Chief Operating Officer for Gulf Keystone said "This retest of the Mus formation demonstrates that even this very low GOR zone is capable of substantial natural flow production rates when properly configured. In addition, it gives us further encouragement for future development, having demonstrated significantly increased production values even with a low capacity ESP."
Such a response is not guaranteed however if the viscosity is simply too high or if the fracture intensity is too low. Over to you TH.
A comment on the Triassic would have been polite. Must we assume it was wet like Summail-1?
Regards,
Gramacho
-
Re: TH's Comments from RNS
Geodude
29UP
In my view this BB news is news that's been coming for a while now - it's been too long since the well reached TD and I've had a feeling that the result wasn't going to be great. Companies put out regular RNSs when there is good news and long periods with any RNSs indicates there's nothing great to shout about.
With the comment made yesterday to the presentation about the pressures in BB being much lower than at Shaikan, and now this announcement that the oil is very heavy makes it look like the structure at this well location on BB could be breached.
This is clearly not good news for those hoping that BB could be three times the size of Shaikan but c'est la vie ( French - c’est la vie: that’s life), this is the oil exploration business. My feelings over the last few months was that BB could only be good news for GKP in that a large discovery would be reflected in a large sp rise, but that a poor well result wouldn't necessarily be disastrous. If the sp manages to hold up reasonably well today, for me that's good news (in a fashion)
However, this has also been my one concern with holding so many GKP over the last few months so now that the news is out I just can't see any more potential banana skins ahead. Once the dust has settled, the only way is up.
But for those hoping for miracles and super acid treatment and so on, I think you need to curb your optimism a little and then you won't be disappointed further.
===
Author Barney71255 View Profile Add to favourites Ignore
Date posted today 10:42
Subject 4th Round- Arabian Oil & Gas
Votes for this Posting Voted UP 20 times.
Message
Another article on 4th Round
Note : Bids are expected to be 10 times higher than previous rounds - which doesn't sound that promising for the ICG TSC bid approach:
`In return, oil companies are likely to set their bids at around ten times the rates settled in previous bidding rounds, which saw Russia’s Lukoil take on West Qurna 2 for just $1.15 per barrel produced before tax.'
Iraq BR4 lookahead: an auction, and a gamble
by Patrick Osgood on May 29, 2012
Fourth bidding round, to take place tomorrow and Thursday, will see the oil ministry put up 12 oil and gas blocks for auction across Iraq.
After several delays, Iraq’s central government is just a week away from the first award of exploratory oil contracts in the country outside the Kurdish region since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003.
The fourth bidding round, to take place tomorrow and Thursday, will see the oil ministry put up 12 oil and gas blocks for auction across Iraq, several of which are in impoverished areas which still have poor security and remain blighted by mines and ordnance.
Baghdad is hoping that, once developed, the blocks will add 29 trillion cubic feet of gas and 10 billion barrels of oil to Iraq’s national reserves. However, in trying to strike a balance between political necessity and commercial reality, Baghdad has taken a gamble that oil companies will sign up to a form of contract several industry voices have said is unsuited to the work required.
The level of enthusiasm for the blocks on offer is uncertain. 47 companies have been pre-approved for the auction, though the relatively low cost of the process means this is not a reliable barometer of interest.
Statoil has already ruled itself out, and ExxonMobil was barred after signing for six exploration blocks in the Kurdish region of Iraq, some of which are in disputed territory. Total's CEO has grumbled about the terms on offer relative to the Kurdish region.
In addition to security issues, the final form of the exploration, development and production service contract (EDPSC) is far removed from what oil companies see as an acceptable model under which to invest in exploration, even after extensive negotiations and amendments to the contract since its initial publication.
Baghdad has retained its fee-per-barrel remuneration model, notwithstanding that speculative concessions more usually see the grant of production sharing contracts akin to those granted by the Kurdish regional government, which give oil firms an equitable stake in oil produced and the ability to book reserves.
The EDPSCs also include a cost control mechanism which nets exploration, production and other costs against production, in a bid to avoid overcharging and ‘gold-plating’.
In return, oil companies are likely to set their bids at around ten times the rates settled in previous bidding rounds, which saw Russia’s Lukoil take on West Qurna 2 for just $1.15 per barrel produced before tax.
Baghdad dropped a requirement that a state oil firm partner in the contracts, and will allow oil companies to use gas at site for free for local power generation and operations.
Iraqi oil analyst Ruba Husari also reports that the prices used in the calculation of revenue have been raised, with the latest EDPSC setting the price of dry gas price at 50% of the export oil price and the price of natural gas liquids as equal to the oil price, instead of 25% and 60% respectively in the previous draft.
An unacknowledged motivator for Baghdad’s willingness to concede on some elements of the EDPSC is the terms on offer in the Kurdish region, where attractive production sharing contracts have been used to attract over 45 independent oil companies, and more recently, supermajors. Counting against the Kurdish contracts are the high acquisition costs to acquire PSCs from incumbents and uncertainty over production revenue.
Gas development looks most promising, as companies will be able to export gas at prevailing rates under bilateral deals struck with the government. Six of the 12 blocks are slated to be primarily gas-rich.
According to Iraq Oil Report, the EDPSC also include a provision allowing Baghdad to cancel should a signatory sign a PSC deal with the Kurdish regional government. This provision was not included in previous contracts, putting Baghdad in a quandary as it looked to punish Exxon for signing deals with the KRG. Baghdad lacks a clear legal mandate to credibly threaten to cancel the supermajor’s contract at West Qurna 1, a measure Exxon could be willing to mire in international arbitration.
=====
Central control enshrined in 4th bid round contract
A representative of Kuwait Energy casts its winning bid for the Siba gas field as oil ministry leaders look on at the Oct. 20, 2010 licensing round. (BEN LANDO/Iraq Oil Report)
A representative of Kuwait Energy casts its winning bid for the Siba gas field as oil ministry leaders look on at the Oct. 20, 2010 licensing round. (BEN LANDO/Iraq Oil Report)
By Ben Lando of Iraq Oil Report
Published May 29, 2012
The contracts offered in this week's exploration block auction will bind companies to recognize Baghdad as Iraq's sole oil authority and prevent them from signing deals with Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
Two new clauses, one each inserted into the two contractual documents in the fourth licensing round, to be held May 30-31 at the Oil Ministry in Baghdad, give the ministry legal weight to cancel deals if the signatory then signs an oil deal with either the KRG or another local g...
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Six blocks offered, one awarded
PetroVietnam Vice President Nguyen Tien Long submits a bid for Iraq's Block 12 in the May 30, 2012, bidding round. PetroVietnam and partners Premier and Bashneft bid higher than what the ministry was willing to pay, and declined to lower its offer. (BEN LANDO/Iraq Oil Report)
PetroVietnam Vice President Nguyen Tien Long submits a bid for Iraq's Block 12 in the May 30, 2012, bidding round. PetroVietnam and partners Premier and Bashneft bid higher than what the ministry was willing to pay, and declined to lower its offer. (BEN LANDO/Iraq Oil Report)
By Ben Lando of Iraq Oil Report
Published May 30, 2012
A consortium led by Kuwait Energy won the rights to prospect in what is expected to be an oil-rich patch of Basra province along the Iranian border – the only block awarded Wednesday by the Oil Ministry on the first day of a two-day contract licensing round.
Another exploration block, spanning Najaf and Muthana provinces, northwest of Basra, was bid for by UK's Premier Oil, along with PetroVietnam and Russia's Bashneft, but the ministry insisted on tougher terms than the consortium was will...
==
Lukoil, Pakistan winners in underwhelming fourth bid round
Iraq Oil Minister Abdul Karim Luaibi opens the bid from Lukoil for Block 10 on the second day of Iraq's fourth bidding round. (BEN LANDO/Iraq Oil Report)
Iraq Oil Minister Abdul Karim Luaibi opens the bid from Lukoil for Block 10 on the second day of Iraq's fourth bidding round. (BEN LANDO/Iraq Oil Report)
By Ben Lando and Staff of Iraq Oil Report
Published June 1, 2012
Russian giant Lukoil and Iraq newcomer Pakistan Petroleum (PPC) won operator rights to explore two blocks expected to contain oil on the second and final day of Iraq's fourth contract licensing round.
Thursday saw increased competition for the blocks offered – only one block was awarded Wednesday – but Lukoil was the biggest of major international oil companies to place a bid.
The relatively low 25 percent award rate is being attributed to service contracts terms that are atypical, esp...
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$39B in oil revenue through May, though exports drop
Iraqi and foreign-contracted workers drilling a well at the Rumaila oil field. It's on track to become the second largest producing field in the world. (BEN LANDO/Iraq Oil Report)
Iraqi and foreign-contracted workers drilling a well at the Rumaila oil field. It's on track to become the second largest producing field in the world. (BEN LANDO/Iraq Oil Report)
By Ben Lando and Staff of Iraq Oil Report
Published June 4, 2012
Oil exports decreased an average 56,000 barrels per day (bpd) over April, but oil prices at $105 per barrel meant Iraq still earned $8 billion last month, a massive consolation for the output dip.
Oil Ministry figures released over the weekend said Iraq exported an average 2.452 million bpd in May, with Iraqi crude fetching well above the $85 per barrel estimated in this year's budget.
"For the first five months of 2012, Iraq achieved about $39 billion in oil revenues," said Oil Ministry s...
=== === Skip to Navigation .(GKP) Gulf Keystone Petroleum 187.12 -1.50 (-0.80%) Add to portfolioSet AlertLevel 2Buy/Sell SummaryNewsChartJavaChartDiscussion 352Technical InsightUsers' HoldingsTradesUsers' ConsensusProfit PointFundamentalsDiscussion Post message List Previous Next View thread Respond Vote up Email to a friend Neighbourhood Watch Author scaramouche View Profile Add to favourites Ignore Date posted Tuesday 18:58 Subject The current meaning of AIM... Votes for this Posting Voted 114 times. Message A cursory review of some of the key discussion points in the last week has, for me, given a new meaning to the term AIM, namely... Aqra-1, Incentives and Maliki! And, in their own way, I guess these key discussions are precisely what makes GKP the archetypal AIM stock.... rather than one which can lay serious claim to being part of the FTSE. These are my current thoughts on each of the above items: • AQRA-1 There seems to be some debate as to whether a big discovery at Aqra could somehow trigger the BoD Exit awards. To me this kind of discussion is however pure pie in the sky. GKP has a 51% Net WI in Shaikan (excluding the further 3.4% due from Texas Keystone’s share in the licence). This compares to a Net WI of 12.8% in Akri-Bijeel. Put another way, that amounts to our interest in Shaikan being FOUR TIMES our interest in AB. That is precisely the reason that this smaller asset was put up for sale IMHO. And we already know that Shaikan has 10.5 billion OIP on a P50 basis, so our share of the OIP there is currently around 5.4 BILLION barrels.... with that figure set to rise significantly when the results from SH-5 and SH-6 have been properly assessed. Conversely, even if we include Bekhme’s 3.9 billion OIP (which MOL maintain is unlikely to be commercial) and ADD it to Akri-Bijeel’s 2.4 billion (P50), GKP’s share of that license could only currently amount to about 800 million barrels OIP.... one seventh of the Shaikan figure. So, to enable the AB share to somehow exceed that of Shaikan we would need Aqra-1 to come in with, wait for it.... a further 36 BILLION barrels of OIP now! Combine this thought with the fact that Aqra-1 would, based on drill progress to date, currently be at around 3800m (with a TD of 4700m) and that MOL are notorious for taking ages to release test results, and it is clear that the scenario whereby a discovery announcement of the required magnitude could be due is simply not feasible. There could certainly have been a ‘discovery’ there, but even that is nothing more than a rumour at this stage so not worth thinking about in the absence of an RNS, IMHO. Ultimately, of course, AB could prove bigger than Shaikan, but it is very obvious to me that the Exit awards are about EITHER the sale of Shaikan (perhaps combined with AB), or the sale of the Company itself, but let us not get too far ahead of ourselves. Shaikan is nearly fully appraised – AB has a VERY long way to go! And yes, I’m sure we can all envisage doomsday scenarios where the SP drops to sub-£1 and AB is sold for the equivalent of 50p per share thereby theoretically triggering the Exit Awards. But let us keep it real – the NEDs and Scheme Trustee would be hanged, drawn and quartered if they were even to entertain the idea of using such an unwelcome scenario to manipulate payment of such extravagant awards. All of which moves me on neatly to the question of remuneration packages and in particular that of TK, which has been such a key debating point of late.... • "INCENTIVES" From the latest annual report, it can be seen that TK’s remuneration package for 2011 totalled $22,230,811. This figure has been picked up and repeated endlessly on this board but IMHO it is very important to understand how it is derived before attempting to pass comment. As far as I can see , it consists of; 1. A basic salary of $675,000 (same as in 2010). 2. A cash bonus of $2,751,568 (about double what TK received in 2010). 3.Bonus shares valued at $18,804,243 on the vesting date of 21 MARCH 2012 when the SP stood at 251.75p (about one-third higher than they are today). Note too that these bonus shares come from the 2009 share bonus scheme (1,666,666); the 2010 share bonus scheme (1,488,333) and I believe the first third of the 2011 bonus scheme (1,459,333), a grand total of about 4.6 million shares across that period. In simple terms, this means that 84.5% of TK’s remuneration for 2011 actually consisted of bonus shares awarded under 3 separate annual schemes. So, while I fully agree that the bonus shares figures are somewhat extravagant, I also think it very important to understand just how much of that excess has indeed been driven by the rise in the SP over the extended period. Rather ironically, if the SP had stayed at the much HIGHER levels we saw earlier this year (and shareholders been far happier), TK’s declared remuneration would also have been considerably higher which, judging by many of the comments on this board, would have presumably led to a lynching! In essence, it is very obvious to me that TK is completely INCENTIVISED for the SP to be as high as possible when GKP or Shaikan is sold, which aligns his objectives very closely with those of all shareholders! I find that reassuring. But yes, I do still find the remuneration levels EXCESSIVE, and one key point which seems to have been missed is that, every time the bonus shares have been awarded, TK has received 5 times the number awarded to both JG and EA. I am unclear how the remuneration committee has been able to sanction this if they are truly independent, and I would perhaps have expected a figure closer to double what JG and EA received. That aspect could certainly be queried for the future , but I cannot see how awards made in 2009, 2010 and 2011 can be effectively challenged retrospectively. Furthermore, from the advent of the Exit Awards RNS, I rather doubt that GKP will last another 12 months for the issue to raise its ugly head again! • Finally, MALIKI! Hmmmm... the whole story of the last few weeks seems to be of political parties completely disillusioned with Maliki’s behaviour throughout his tenure seeking to oust him. Given his history, is it therefore any wonder that he seems now to be reacting rather like a caged lion that has been aroused and sees just a few chinks of light between the bars that surround him? We have seen Maliki trying to get his key political opponents arrested, seeking to take control of all the key security forces and powerful controlling positions, allowing endless lies to circulate about Exxon’s entry to Kurdistan from his side-kick Shahristani, and then the total travesty that the 4th Bid round for exploration licences turned out to be. Yet now, presumably quite satisified with his overall performance, he is apparently challenging the legitimacy of the signatures of a vast army of MPs who are petitioning for his removal. These are clearly the actions of a would-be dictator who is never going to concede power gracefully and give in to a democratic political process.... so I sincerely hope that the Iraqi and Kurdish people do not allow themselves to fall even further under his evidentially increasing tyrannical control. *** Wake up, Mr Maliki, your actions are now doing untold damage to Iraq and your fellow countrymen... so, the time to Resign is now! *** Indeed, it needs only to be remembered that Maliki assumed power in December 2010 because he signed up to the 19 –point Erbil agreement, and that the ONLY reason that so many MP’s now seek to depose him is that he has reneged on every aspect of that Agreement and is still in power 18 months later. He has NO excuses. Meanwhile, I have no doubt that the KRG is far from whiter than white. But it was the KRG’s Massoud Barzani who was instrumental in putting an end to a record 9 month political impasse since the March 2010 elections, and allowing a government to be formed. So, it IS Maliki who is primarily responsible for igniting the political powder keg once again. As a GKP shareholder I remain optimistic if slightly uncomfortable about the eventual political result,and the advantages that should bring to us as shareholders, but in the short-term it is certainly very messy indeed! So, in a nutshell, I think that the last few weeks has shown the huge potential that remains for GKP when all the OIP at Shaikan is announced and the company or its key Assets are sold; but the lack of really effective Corporate governance which has allowed the BoD to profit excessively from what has undoubtedly been remarkable progress. And in particular we have certainly seen the full extent of the Geopolitical risk component which causes many a potential investor some degree of concern! This really is the ultimate AIM share! GKP is a stock with a truly incredible upside when it reaches its final destination, but don’t for one moment imagine that you won’t be encountering some turbulent waters along the way. Those that remain onboard throughout the long voyage really do deserve to reap their full rewards IMHO...and I certainly intend to be one of them! AIMHO and please DYOR. GLA, scaramouche == Fri 19:28 Re: MP: Many signatories withdraw their ... orang minyak 25 View Author's profileAdd to favouritesIgnoreAuthor's posts "If the Kurds declare an independent state, would that mean they get to keep all the oil revenue?...If so, then surely there would be a lot more room to amend the PSC's in terms of greater reward to the contractors? " Anybody who thinks that the Kurds declaring an independent state is a good way out of this for gkp holders shows a distinct lack of knowledge on how the region operates and the fall-out that would occur from such an action. Also, why would they want to introduce more favourable terms when they hold all the cards? ----- Dotty, I can't let that pass. My opinion is that if the Kurds were to declare independence, together with (or after or before) announcing high investments and entry of the world's biggest oil companies into the region', the markets would look at it very very kindly. Put it this way, we are stuck with rotten, stagnant Iraqi politics now and we ain't going anywhere fast. The markets know this, the traders know this, and that's why we are superglued at the 180 to 200 p level. Take away Iraqi politics, and we have a stable peaceful region, where Government works, the Government and the people welcome foreign investment. Sprinkle the pipelines through Turkey and safe, stable export routes to World markets, backed by NATO. Lastly add in major investments by Exxon, Total, Chevron?, Sinopec, with the implicit backing of their respective national governments (remember President Barzani saying, one Exxon is worth 9 military divisions in Kurdistan - well how much is Exxon plus Total plus Sinopec plus Statoil etc worth?). Who was the biggest opposition to Kurdipy independence in the past ( apart from Iraq of course)? Turkey. well guess what, Turkey's just agreed to those Kurdy pipelines carrying oodles of gas and oil into its energy hungry economy. And Turkey sent 100 odd companies into Kurdy looking for lucrative deals. If earlier posts are to be believed, a company whose CEO is the son in law of the Turkish PM will build the major pipeline into Turkey. Does that look like the actions of a country that will stand in the way of Kurdish prosperity? I leave it for all you grizzled veterans and hopefull newbies to judge. At the risk of repeating myself, Maliki can go or Maliki can stay. Either way, I am convinced it will be full speed ahead for Kurdistan, backed by Turkey and the supermajors. The only question is timing. I don't believe KRG will wait until after the US elections to announce, but I dont know if they are waiting for some other event other than the move to unseat Maliki to come to an end one way or another. But the region will prosper, and along with it, GKP and us hard core GKP believers. As for changing the PSCs to be more generous to the supermajors entering Kurdistan, well, that would be the clincher for any of those companies hesitating wouldn't it? Also it would create a bigger pie, so that a generous share can be doled out to all the interested parties (Sinopec and Exxon, to name a couple). But even without the changes, those PSCs leave a lot for the next man, even if he had to shell out £10 a share to buy Shaikan, or the equivalent for all the other blocks and BIRs. I leave it to the experts on this BB to work out the exact numbers, but I think even if oil were to fall to $80 a barrel over the short term, there is still a big fat profit margin (deducting the minimal lifting costs for onshore operations) for all those supermajors entering the region. OM ==== Author nest of rampers View Profile Add to favourites Ignore Date posted Monday 22:30 Subject Re: Mark Leftly... View parent message Votes for this Posting Voted UP 9 times. Message Here it is again , GKP did not need to respond to this . It is all explained here. ---------------------------------------------- US oil supermajor Exxon Mobil is understood to have sounded out London-listed Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) over a possible deal that could value the Kurdistan-focused group at around £7bn. GKP has a market capitalisation of around £1.5bn and is listed on the junior Aim market, but its chief executive, Todd Kozel, believes the group could eventually go for double-figure billions. GKP is sitting on what is considered to be one of the world's great recent oil finds – Shaikan, about 50 miles north-west of Kurdistan's capital, Erbil – but the regional government is known to want a supermajor on board to properly fund and develop the field. It is thought that the board would not accept the estimated £8-a-share that Exxon is considering and that a number of other companies, perhaps including China's Sinopec and Californian giant Chevron, are monitoring the situation. There is even some speculation that an informal four-way auction for GKP might be under way, while it is also believed that the company has spoken to at least two smaller businesses about potentially developing its assets in a joint venture. Last month, it emerged that Exxon was the first of the oil industry's giants to enter Kurdistan, taking six licences. However, this has angered the government in Baghdad because there are old territorial disputes between Iraq and Kurdistan. Baghdad had threatened to terminate Exxon's existing deal in southern Iraq and it had been reported that the US giant might reconsider its licences in Kurdistan. However, the lucrative potential of the Kurdistan fields means that analysts expect Exxon will pursue opportunities in the semi-autonomous region and may already have taken additional positions to those licences previously revealed. There are suggestions that Exxon's interest in GKP was discussed at a board meeting 10 days ago and that initial soundings may have been taken at least six weeks ago. Last month, much of the oil world descended on Erbil for a conference that highlighted the extraordinary oil opportunities in Kurdistan, with Mr Kozel one of the key speakers. It is believed that Mr Kozel would be happy to sell up soon and has even started mulling over his next venture. The American businessman is one of the most colourful figures in the City and has a base of devoted retail investors who are waiting for a takeover of GKP to make them rich. GKP declined to comment. Exxon did not return calls. - Mon 21:48 Re: Mark Leftly... jilted If Mark Leftly had proof of a T/O then he should've made that proof public or not said anything at all. Partly as a result of his article many people bought in and as a result drove the SP up to £4+. When no proof from him was forthcoming and no clarification or denial of the offer came from the company, the arss fell out of the share price and no doubt many investors were left high and dry. Journos of broad sheet newspapers have a responsibility when it comes to printing potentially price sensitive articles in the same way CEOs of listed companies have a responsibility to their shareholders to divulge such information. If the journos cannot or will not substantiate their claims or companies do not categorically refute such claims then it is only natural that people may become suspicious and possibly suspect some wrong doing. The fact remains, Leftly should have backed up his claims or kept schtum. Todd has also diclosed information regarding the OWC to analysts but not to his shareholders via RNS. It would appear that that not everyone is privy to the same information. == Mon 20:56 Re: CJ's utterances... Chicago Jack * Author's posts Broadford B.. Hope your well.. apologies for my grammar.. must be annoying to most. Cryptic . Like a crossword but with out clues listed across and down so the brain as to work and do research.. I responded to a poster earlier and was suprised by the answers, but they may said sense and resonated with what I know. Thats where this started and thats where it ends. I have no need to even read the board, but when i do , I get a sense of wanting to respond.. First You only need 1 share to have a vote at an AGM or an interest. My shoulder are broad enough and skin thick enough to stand the insults that fly about.. I posted the offer 19 billion in good faith when I had no need to. iii REMOVED IT, not me. all readers of the board have to remember I said offer been approved to go forward to a table. I said another was being formulated. I wont ever disclose confidences so anyone wanting to go there, then I suggest you get a plane ticket and start in the US looking. People say proof and links.. show me how many links the eyeless wonders on this board produced to Eatmic.. I will say this again and again if required. I got slaughtered for saying Etamic was Beirut . I took it on the chin because I knew where my research and with help of people in the US took me. Etamic True fact. I said the date it was going and the reason.. I was again slaughtered . True Fact May 15 th 2010 i posted about May18th It happened true fact again. I posted on DNO-RAK at the same time- true fact again. Now I said clear as I could people I knew in the US would pay upto $6.30 . Now when offers go through boards of those making them, some need clearance and I know two that did and another one that did not need clearance . I don't have to justify my posts to anyone.. and when people say they are invested..start proving it .. for all anyone knows any poster may hold nothing at all . I am shocked at the lack of research people do and especially on the regions of the world and political situations and each countrys tax regime on resources. This applys to all countrys where resources are explored for. CJ ========= Mon 20:31 CJ's utterances... broadford bay this user is in your favourites list I don't know CJ - I've never met him, never exchanged emails (or tweets) with him, never spoken to him; but I'll let him defend himself against some of the more outrageous attacks. For all that, and although I too sometimes do find his grammar challenging and his references somewhat puzzling, I have no reason to doubt what he has posted re. "offers on table" etc. I know from my own experience, also from having lived and worked in Libya in a senior position, that such scenarios are always fluid especially in the ME/NA and especially in O&G exploration. The involvement of the KRG, the necessary & continuous updating of data caused by adjacent discoveries, the revisiting of assumptions and evaluations then made essential as such data throws your original assumptions out the window, the ebbing and flowing of sentiment in Baghdad, the infighting within the KRG itself, the sudden and unexpected appearance of new "interested" parties - whose questions and detailed requests for information are all different, all of these combine to make a straightforward takeover offer impossible. IMO, each and every tentative TO-approach is virtually guaranteed to "reset the clock to zero". That's my very personal take on why CJ's predictions (as some have interpreted them) have not, as yet, borne fruit. == Tue 22:43 Trolls mrniceguy1066 Internet trolls face tough new rules Reuters/London Website operators may soon be forced under planned new laws to reveal the identity of those who post defamatory comments on their forums, a move that aims to protect victims by speeding up what is often a lengthy and expensive legal process. Justice Secretary Kenneth Clarke said the proposed approach would give greater protection to operators who complied with the procedure. “As the law stands, individuals can be the subject of scurrilous rumour and allegation on the web with little meaningful remedy against the person responsible,” said Clarke in a statement. “The government wants a libel regime for the Internet that makes it possible for people to protect their reputations effectively but also ensures that information online can’t be easily censored by casual threats of litigation against website operators.” Both members of the public and companies have made angry threats to take legal action against Internet ‘trolls’, who circulate false rumours about them online. Last month, London-listed oil explorer Gulf Keystone became the latest in a string of firms to say it would not tolerate what it said were attempts to damage its reputation and share price. However, litigation is currently difficult and expensive in Britain, in part because victims often need to achieve a court order to force the website owner to hand over subscriber contact details. Known as a ‘Norwich Pharmacal order’, named for a 1973 judgment which found that the Norwich Pharmacal Company was entitled to be told the identity of those whose illegal activity was hurting its business, the move has been used in Britain against Facebook and Wikipedia in recent years http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=511860&version=1&templ === Tue 19:58 Re: Long 179.5 Reasons and Analysis doctorh STM Superb analysis, exactly what this board is intended to be used for, and of use to investors and traders alike. Many thanks indeed for sharing your thoughts. Can I also just say, full credit to you for the way you dealt with the BH episode. He is a heavyweight poster by any standards, and this afternoon's exchange was clearly an attempt by him to discredit your excellent call and turn it to his advantage - for BH to create the illusion that you have secretly spoken to him off the record, and to suggest that you actually have a position which is the polar opposite to that which you have stated, is completely beyond contempt in my view. It demonstrates the appalling lengths to which parasites such as BH will go to in their attempts to deceive for their own financial gain at the expense of others. I am sure the vast majority of posters here would applaud you if you decided to report this episode to iii neighbourhood watch. Certain individuals have previously been banned from posting, and if the blatant lies and attempts at subterfuge shown by BH this afternoon don't deserve a ban, I'm really not sure what does. ==== Author scaramouche View Profile Add to favourites Ignore Date posted Thursday 20:28 Subject Dreams.... Votes for this Posting Voted UP 105 times. Message Good evening everyone, I have been trying to step back from the iii discussion forum lately, while the perhaps inevitable mood of negativity and cries of disappointment are so frequently exuded on here. My reasoning is that I have long believed that ‘Mr Market’ is always on the look-out for signs of shareholder capitulation and will take full advantage of it when it is there, so it is perhaps best not always to give vent to any personal feelings which the vultures might swiftly feast upon. But that is just my personal view! Anyway, one particular post this afternoon made such heart-rending reading that I felt it might be a good time to comment. Dream Builder, my thoughts go out to you in your extremely courageous and personal battle, while you wait patiently for GKP to deliver what has been expected of them for what must now seem almost like a life-time. Your post has helped me to put all that has happened lately into perspective – I thank you very much for that! Four months ago (on my birthday in fact!), in a post I entitled ‘The Fulfilment of dreams’, I set out my own vision of how I believed that GKP might go about trying to fulfil the hopes and aspirations of ALL of its shareholders. http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AGKP.L&display=discussion&threshold=0&action=detail&id=9260593 At the time the SP was about 320p! Looking back, I can see that my post was therefore written in a mood of optimism, based on an expectation that Shaikan would be fully drilled and appraised by the end of July 2012, with reserves fully booked and a Field development Plan clearly defined. I envisaged then that it might be possible to conclude a sale of 50% of GKP’s share of Shaikan (perhaps to Exxon) , and that this could act as a spring-board to massively increasing the SP, then some further M&A activity which might see it merging with, say, Genel and joining the FTSE. It was quite deliberately a thought-provoking post, and I still believe that many of the messages in there are as true today as they were then, were it not for the dramatic decline in the SP since that time. Think about it. Shaikan might indeed still be fully appraised by the end of July as predicted and a wide range of options might remain available to the BoD. But much has happened in the intervening period, and it is becoming increasingly clear that many people on here are suffering what looks rather like a feeling of shattered dreams. it is very hard to reverse that feeling. Indeed, it is quite extraordinary how great euphoria can have become replaced by utter despondency in such a short period of time... and how the concerns over the global economy, Iraqi politics and the disappearance of the 'imminent takeover' rumour can have brought about SUCH a radical change in people’s perception of GKP as an Investment. I am not exempt from having many of the same feelings myself! So, I very much hope that our own Mr Dream Maker, Todd Kozel, ably supported by Perella Weinberg & co., are almost ready to reveal what could possibly have influenced the announcement of those undoubtedly rather generous Exit Awards outlined in the RNS of 22 March 2012... an announcement which surely contributed to so many of us believing that our dreams were indeed about to become a reality. I have also thought long and hard about the comments on here about TK’s personal pay package, and, although missed by some, my previous post on this did highlight how certain excesses really did need to be addressed and explained by the remuneration committee. In short, I believe that TK only can only justify anything like the kind of numbers that have been quoted IF HE DELIVERS what shareholders have been widely led to believe is just around the corner. And that means... the huge increase in OIP figures forecast by TK and JG in conferences earlier in the year; clear and unambiguous information in all operational updates that addresses all reasonable questions from our techie experts, the urgent delivery of the latest DGA report and actual booking of reserves; and most of all an unequivocal statement as to what GKP’s long-term strategy really is.... accompanied by proper explanations when promises such as the move to the FTSE, the sale of Akri-Bijeel, or the appointment of the 3rd NED fail to materialise. I truly believe that the failure of the BoD to deliver on any of these items has led to an atmosphere of distrust, while shareholders might otherwise be celebrating the huge achievements of GKP in 2011 and 2012 and feeling encouraged at least that the Directors' objectives in terms of a much higher SP were clearly aligned to those of us as shareholders. I personally believe that only the provision of timely, comprehensive and unambiguous communications from the Board of Directors, which demonstrates a genuine desire to lift the share price to where it belongs, can ever help to allay many of the doubts that have been so vocally expressed on here. And that communication also includes letting ALL shareholders know if there have been any ‘approaches’ (either casual or more direct) regarding the possible sale of Shaikan or the whole Company.... on which most of our dreams are surely founded. IMO, we really don’t want any more rumours, we just need a little more clarity! Saying that, it is not easy to tell to what extent TK’s hands might be tied by the political tensions in the region. But, to me, there is little doubt that the lack of concrete information, and diminished confidence in GKP’s ability to monetise some of its assets, has created an additional layer of uncertainty and an atmosphere where rumours are allowed to flourish unabated. With the constant political upheaval and doubts about the future of Maliki and Shahristani, this is one risk that GKP can surely do without. In a Risk Off investment world GKP has, righlty or wrongly, become seen as more risky. And all the while that this goes on, there are people like Dream Builder whose dreams are fading fast, and who surely deserve much fairer treatment, and others who have shared the same dreams... but are now perhaps wondering when the nightmare will end! So here is my suggestion, Todd. You were justifiably over the moon when you announced to the world that Shaikan was “an Oilman’s dream” and told us how important it was then to manage shareholder expectations. My suspicions are that, a few months ago, the ‘story’ did in fact get rather ahead of itself and that it is therefore now very important we are brought bang up to date with what is really happening behind closed doors and how close we are toward the fulfilment of OUR own personal dreams... not just yours! I have to admit that, when I first ‘discovered’ GKP as an investment with massive unfulfilled potential, I thought that I was dreaming. Now, when I look at the SP, I often have to pinch myself, as it seems so unreal! I want to stop having to dream about all the news that might appear via RNS in the morning, and to KNOW instead that anything that is important to my family and myself regarding this investment will definitely be announced promptly and no sooner than that information is known. Only then can I feel sure that my Golden Tickets really are.... the stuff that Dreams are made of! GLA, scaramouche ==== Author Barney71255 View Profile Add to favourites Ignore Date posted Tuesday 23:26 Subject Kurdish Oil Summary Votes for this Posting Voted UP 14 times. Message This article out today indicates deals already in place with Statoil and Total. It also indicates ICG are powerless to stop progress which is reflected in Maliki's letter to Obama trying to stop Exxon How Oil May End a Conflict (for Once) By Michael Moran | Posted Tuesday, June 19, 2012, at 12:02 PM ET http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_reckoning/2012/06/19/how_oil_may_end_a_conflict_for_once_.html As Syria has monopolized world attention in recent months, the relatively important changes underway across the border in Iraq have received less attention than they warrant. While post-occupation Iraq is no one’s idea of a democratic model – and certainly not the inspiration for the Arab Spring, as some gung ho neo-cons now claim – the dysfunction in Baghdad and continuing violence have created common interests between Iraqi Kurds and their longtime ethnic foes to the north, Turkey. The Turks and the Kurds, now spread between areas of Syria, Iraq, Iran, Armenia and Turkey itself, have vied for control of this mountainous region for centuries. The conflict got militarized in the early 1970s, when years of oppression by Turkey of the Kurdish language and culture sparked a Marxist guerrilla war waged with terrorist tactics by a group called the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party). The conflict, which has been raged with ferocity by both sides ever since, in recent years sparked Turkish incursions over the Iraq border, where PKK formations shelter in the high mountains that line the frontier. (This is another thing that gets too little coverage; the International Crisis Group estimates that up to 1338 people died in this fighting between 2008 and 2010, including 136 civilians). This is an unpromising canvas on which to draw up closer ties. And yet, that’s precisely what is happening, thanks to a thirst for oil in fast growing Turkey, and a quest to bypass Baghdad’s snake pit politics on the part of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), which governs Iraq’s northern provinces with a degree of autonomy. Ever since last week, news has broken almost daily of deals struck by the KRG with foreign oil companies, including Exxon-Mobil, Norway’s Statoil, France’s Total and others. These developments have the potential to provide self-sufficiency over time from the government in Baghdad. At the moment, Kurdish oil gets processed and burned within Iraq, as the only route to future markets (outside smugglers in tanker trucks) would be through pipelines controlled by the central government. With the current Shiite Iraqi government beholden to Iran and gridlocked by opposition from the parliament’s Kurdish and Sunni blocs, a long awaited oil law that would define the terms under which regions like Kurdistan would benefit from oil extracted locally is going nowhere. So the Kurds have taken matters into their own hands. Who can blame them? With an unfriendly Iran on one side, the chaos of Syria on another and limited influence to get Baghdad to move, the KRG decided to deepen ties with the ancient enemy, Turkey. In the last month, plans to build two new pipelines to carry the KRG’s oil north have been agreed, joining a third that carries natural gas. All would be financed through Turkey and supply the Turkish market. Why, you might ask, would Baghdad allow the Kurds to go forward with such projects? For one thing, Baghdad may not want anyone to know how relatively powerless they are to stop them. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is increasingly reliant on Iran to stay in power. Last week, even the pro-Tehran Shia hothead Moqtada al-Sadr abandoned Maliki, demanding he submit to a vote of no confidence. But Tehran apparently believes Maliki remains useful, and has reined in al-Sadr. So he stays for now. So Baghdad has other problems. And besides, the Iraqi central government may also feel the threat of Kurdish separatism has receded for the moment. While the KRG is eager to export its oil, it has no desire to lose the large revenue sharing benefits it currently enjoys from Baghdad – at least not until its northern fields have found lucrative foreign markets. Under provisional Iraqi regulations now in place, Kurdistan’s regional government currently gets a 17 percent share of Iraq’s national oil revenues, and that covers about 95 percent of the regional government’s budget. Even with pipelines to Turkey and giants like Exxon and Total pumping with all their might – all of which are years away - it is still questionable whether KRG export earnings could equal or exceed that 17 percent share of federal Iraqi revenue. This explains the careful steps the KRG is taking not to provoke the center, including a pledge to only keep 17 percent of the export proceeds, distributing the rest to its Iraqi cousins. So what’s in it for Turkey, and why after decades would the Turks suddenly find common ground with the KRG? Certainly inside Turkey, the war against the PKK continues – 2) died in clashes just today. But Turkey is feeling isolated. With Iraq developing into a de facto Iranian satellite and Turkey’s ties with the Assad regime in tatters, Ankara has found itself increasingly isolated and without friends in Iraq now that the US is gone. The Kurdish official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that even as clashes between Kurds and Turkish security forces continue inside Turkey, the government in Ankara has adopted a more pragmatic view of Kurdish nationalism outside its own borders. A little Kurdistan on the border beats a big one constantly threatening to erupt inside. But the prospect of a reliable source of oil on its border also has thrown new light on the value of good relations with the Iraqi Kurds. After years of denying that there was any such thing as a Kurd – (they were legally categorized as “mountain Turks” into the 1980s by Ankara’s military rulers) – Turkey apparently has come to terms with the idea of a homeland for Kurds, as long as it’s not on Turkish territory, and as long as the energy it produces fuels Turkey’s booming economy. == Iraq Taps Its Oil Riches, But Risks Deter Big Investment * Print * Email Iraq Taps Its Oil Riches, But Risks Deter Big Investment x Download Iraq Taps Its Oil Riches, But Risks Deter Big Investment * * * TEXT SIZE - + Henry Ridgwell June 19, 2012 LONDON - Nine years after the U.S.-led invasion, the Iraqi government says the country is emerging as a global energy giant. A conference in London has brought together leading figures from the government and the oil industry to try to boost investment in Iraq. But, several risks remain - not least the growing instability in some of Iraq's neighbors. Iraq's government says recent explorations show the country could be sitting on the world's largest oil reserves at up to 350 billion barrels. The figure is unproven, but many agree that Iraq has huge untapped potential. The Iraq Petroleum 2012 Conference in London (June 18-20) brought together Iraqi government and industry figures. Among them was Bayazeed Hassan Abdullah, an Iraqi lawmaker and member of the parliamentary Oil Committee. "By the end of 2017, Iraq can produce 12 million barrels a day," he said. "And also it has a huge gas (potential) in Iraq because each barrel, when extracted, it is accompanied with 600 cubic feet of gas." Among the speakers at the London conference was Tony Hayward, the former chief executive of BP, who left the company following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. He now runs Genel Energy, the largest oil producer in northern Iraq. "Across Iraq today, there's a desperate need for significant new infrastructure to allow the country to truly emerge on the world stage as a major supplier of oil and gas to the world," he said. "Perhaps more importantly, to provide a growing quality of life for the citizens of Iraq." After decades of war and sanctions, Iraq's oil and gas infrastructure lags behind other leading exporters. Exxon and other foreign oil giants have signed deals to develop wells and pipelines, but experts say Iraqi politics is holding back overseas investment. Paul Stevens is with the independent policy institute Chatham House. "They're going to have to get a petroleum law passed to allow the international oil companies to come in on a risk-taking basis rather than as service companies," he said. Analysts highlight other risks, notably ongoing sectarian violence. The northern semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan stopped oil exports to Baghdad earlier this year in protest over non-payment. Iraq lies at the heart of a region undergoing huge political upheaval - and shares borders with Syria and Iran. Iraq's former National Security adviser, Mowaffak al-Rubaie, spoke at the London conference. "Now all politics are regional and maybe even global," he said. "Anything happening in Syria, Egypt, Yemen, and the list goes on and on, it will affect Iraq." Despite the risks, Iraq exported more than 2.5 million barrels a day in April, more than at any time since the 1980s. == Kidnapped oil workers released for $500,000 ransom After negotiations between the Iraqi government and kidnappers – held at a luxury hotel in Basra – four oil workers were freed from more than a month of captivity. Basra International Hotel A view of the grounds of the Basra International Hotel, where Iraqi government officials and kidnappers met to negotiate the $500,000 ransom that led to the release of four oil workers, who had been held hostage since May 13, 2012. (BEN VAN HEUVELEN/Iraq Oil Report) By Ali Abu Iraq and Staff of Iraq Oil Report Published June 21, 2012 Four kidnapped oil workers were released Monday, ending more than a month in captivity, after their captors were paid a $500,000 ransom. The victims – two Iraqis, one Palestinian, and one Lebanese – are employees of the Athens-based Consolidated Contractors Company (CCC) who had been working near the Rumaila oil field, at the company's pipeline fabrication plant. Driving together on May 13, near the village of Um Uneji, they were stopped at a fake checkpoint and abducted. Prime Ministe... === Iraq’s Fourth Bid Round: Assessment Of The Outcome Posted on 19 June 2012. Tags: 4th round oil licences, Ahmed Mousa Jiyad Iraq’s Fourth Bid Round: Assessment Of The Outcome By Ahmed Mousa Jiyad. Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News. After many postponements, Iraq’s fourth bid round took place on 30-31 May 2012. Twelve exploration blocks were offered, but only three were awarded. With two-thirds of the offered blocks receiving no bid, this must be a disappointing result for the Ministry of Oil. Many commentators would see this as obvious failure, and the ‘blame game’ has begun. But as always, there are different ways to look at the event and interpret its outcomes, from different perspectives, as this brief paper, initially published by MEES, attempts to do. Please click here to read Ahmed Mousa Jiyad’s full report. Mr Jiyad is an independent development consultant and scholar. He is the founder of Iraq/Development Consultancy and Research (Norway) and Associate with the Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES), London, with 40 years of international experience in Iraq, US, UK, Norway and with UN organizations in Uganda, Sudan and Jordan. He is now based in Norway, and can be reached at: mou-jiya@online.no). == Author scaramouche View Profile Add to favourites Ignore Date posted 2012-06-20 18:13 Subject Re: French companies View parent message Votes for this Posting Voted UP 65 times. Message Interesting...
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